02/03/2014 Sunday Politics Wales

Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

Fears that Ukraine could face invasion escalate this morning as

Russian forces take control of Crimea. President Obama and his

European allies tell President Putin to back off. It doesn't sound like

he's listening. Shadow Education Secretary Tristram

Hunt has started spelling out Labour's plans for schools. So

what's the verdict - full marks, or must try harder? He joins us for the

Sunday Interview. And all the big political parties

And I talk with the Welsh Liberal appeal. We'll look at some

And I talk with the Welsh Liberal Democrats leader Kirsty Williams

about the health of the party, the NHS and new powers for the Assembly.

about the health of the party, the and people deal with benefit

changes. And tightening household finances.

And with me, as always, three journalists who'd make a clean sweep

if they were handing out Oscars for political punditry in LA tonight.

But just like poor old Leonardo DiCaprio they've never won so much

as a Blue Peter badge! Yes, it's Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan

Ganesh. Instead of acceptance speeches they'll be tweeting faster

than the tears roll down Gwyneth Paltrow's face. Yes, that's as

luvvie as we get on this show. Events have been moving quickly in

Ukraine this weekend. The interim government in Kiev has put the

Ukrainian military on full combat alert after Russia's parliament

rubber-stamped the deployment of Russian troops anywhere in Ukraine.

Russian troops seem already to be in control of the mainly

Russian-speaking Crimea region, where Russia has a massive naval

base. President Obama told President Putin that Russia has flouted

international law by sending in Russian troops but the Kremlin is

taking no notice. This is now turning into the worst stand-off

between Russia and the West since the conflict between Georgia and

Russia in 2008, though nobody expects any kind of military

response from the West. Foreign Secretary William Hague is on his

way to Kiev this morning to show his support for the new government,

though how long it will survive is another matter. We can speak to our

correspondent David Stern, he's in Kiev.

As things look from Kiev, can we take it they've lost Crimea,

As things look from Kiev, can we now in all essence under Russian

control? Yes, well for the moment, Crimea is under Russian control.

Russian troops in unmarked uniforms have moved throughout the peninsula

taking up various positions, also at the Ismis which links Ukraine into

Crimea. They've surrounded Ukrainon troops there. Three units have been

captured according to a top officials. We can say at the moment

Russia controls the peninsula. It should also be said, also they have

the support of the ethnic Russian population. The ethnic Russians make

up the majority of the population. They are also not entirely in

control because there are other groups, namely the Tatar as and the

ethnic Ukrainian speakers who are at least at the moment tacitly

resisting. We'll see what they'll start to do in the coming days.

David, I'm putting up some pictures showing Russian troops digging in on

the border between Crimea and Ukraine. I get the sense that is

just for show. There is, I would assume, no possibility that the

Ukrainians could attempt to retake Crimea by military force? It seems

that the Ukrainians are weighing their options right now. Their

options are very limited. Any head-to-head conflict with Russia

would probably work against the Ukrainians. They seem to be taking

more of a long-term gain. They are waiting for the figs's first move.

They are trying not to create any excuse that the Russians can stage

an even larger incursion into Crimea or elsewhere, for that matter. They

also seem to be trying to get international support. It should be

said, this is a new Government. It has only been installed this week.

They are trying to gain their footing. This is a major crisis.

They have to count on the loyalty of the army they might have some

resistance from solders from the eastern part of the country who are

Russian speaking. They probably could count on Ukrainian speakers

and people from the centre and west of the country as well as regular

Ukrainians. A lot of people are ready to fight to defend Ukrainian

Terre Tory. Where does the Kremlin ready to fight to defend Ukrainian

go next? They have Crimea to all intents and purposes. There's a weak

Government in Kiev. Do they move to the eastern side of Ukraine which is

largely Russian speaking and there's already been some unrest there?

That's the big question, that's what everybody's really asking now. Where

does this go from here? We've had some unrest in the eastern part of

the country. There have been demonstrations and clashes. More

ominously, there have been noises from the Kremlin they might actually

move into eastern Ukraine. Putin in his conversation with Barack Obama

said they might protect their interests there. It should be said,

if they do expand, in fact, they've also said they are dead against the

new Government seeing it as also said they are dead against the

illegitimate and fascist. It does contain risks. They will have to

deal with international reactions. America said there will be a deep

reaction to this and it will affect Russia's relations with Ukraine and

the international community. They have to deal with the reaction in

Ukraine. This may unite Ukrainians behind this new interim Government.

Once Russia moves in, they will be seen as an invading force. It plays

on historical feelings of Russia being an imperial force.

Joining me is MP Mark Field who sits on the security Security and

Intelligence Committee in the House of Commons. What should the western

response be to these events? I can understand why William Hague is

going to Kiev tomorrow to stand side by side whizz whoever's in charge.

They need to CEOP sit numbers and also President Putin. The truth is

we are all co significant fatries to the Budapest Memorandum of almost 20

years ago which was designed to maintain the integrity of the

Ukraine and Crimea. There needs to be a discussion along those lines.

The difficulty is President Putin has watched events in recent months,

in relation to Syria, it is palpable President Obama's focus of attention

ask the other side of the Pacific President Obama's focus of attention

in the House of Commons, I was very much against the idea of military

action or providing weapons to the free Syrian army. My worry is,

events proved this, the majority of the other options toed as sad are

rather worse. It is clear now we are in a constitutional mess in this

country. We cannot even contemplate military action without a

parliamentary vote that moves against quick reaction that is

required from the executive or, I suspect, there will be very little

appetite for any military action from the West over in Ukraine. We

are corn tours under the agreement of less than 20 years ago. We may be

but we've guaranteed an agreement which it is clear we haven't the

power to enforce. You wrote this morning, Britain is a diminished

voice. Clams Iley navigating the Syrian conflict we relick wished

decisions to the whims of parliamentary approval. That may or

may not be but the Kremlin's not watching how we voted on the Syrian

issue? In relation to Syria, it was where is the western resolve here.

The truth ask Putin's position is considerably less strong. In

diplomatic terms. He had a victory in Syria in relation to chemical

weapons and in relation to the West's relationship with Iran. Putin

is a vital inter locking figure. In demographic and economic terms,

Russia's in very deep trouble. The oil price started to fall to any

degree, oil and gas price, given the importance of mineral wealth and

exports for the Russian economy, Putin would be in a lot of trouble.

It requires an engagement from the EU and the EU are intending to look

at their internal economic problems and will be smarting from the

failure within a matter of hours of the deal they tried to broker only

nine days' ago. You say if Mr Putin decides to

increase the stakes and moves into the east, takes over the whole

place, our Government, you say, will find itself with another colossal

international headache. Some people watching this will be thinking,

what's it got to do with us? It's a long way away from Britain. We

haven't a dog in this fight? We have in this regard for the longer term

here. I think if there were to be some military action in Ukraine, the

sense of Russia taking over, it could have a major impact on the

global economy in very quick order. You should not deny that. There will

be move to have sanctions against Russia. The escalation of that will

be difficult. The other fact is looking at our internal affairs and

reform, partners, the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, the Czech Republic,

they will be looking at a resurgent Russia now and think they'll need to

hold as tightly as possible to the EU institutions and the power of

Germany at the centre of that. This whole appetite for the reforms

Germany at the centre of that. This politically and economically will be

closed very much within a matter of a short period of time. It has

longer term implications. Mark Field, thank you.

We're joined now by BBC News night's Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban. Is

there any prospect of a western military response? Clearly at the

moment, it is nil. The boat has sailed with the Crimean. It has been

per performed by Russian forces. It is now a matter of coordinating a

plate cal line. European foreign ministers tomorrow. To say what will

our future limits be? Where could we possibly draw red lines? To try to

think a couple of steps down this, what happens if Russia interrupts

energy supplies to EU member states ornate owe countries? These are the

important steps they have to think about. It is quite clear we are in a

different world here now. Also, Ukraine is facing a urgent foreign

exchange crisis. Within literally a few weeks they could run out of

money. All of these are rushing towards decision makers very fast.

There is an interim and I suggestion unstable Government in Kiev. Crimea

semi-to be under Russian control. There are clashes between the

reformers and Russian nationals in the east of the country. What does

Mr Putin do next? He has lots of options, of course. He has this

carte blanch carte blanch from his Parliament to go in to the rest of

Ukraine if he wants to. His military deployment suggests the one bite at

a time, just Crimea to start with. See what response comes from the

Ukrainian Government. Of course, so far, there hasn't been a coherent

response. The really worrying thing about recent months, not just recent

days, are the indications that the future of Ukraine as a unitary state

is now in doubt. Look at it from the other side of the equation. The

President when faced with demonstrations, many extremists, he

was unable to deal with that. Now we have the other side, if you like,

the Russian speakers, the other side of the fight, Russian nationalists

showing they can get away with unilateral action more or less with

impunity. The Ukrainian chiefs have been sacked. I think there are

considerable questions now as to whether Ukraine is falling apart

and, if that happens, we're into a Yugoslav-type situation which will

continue posing very serious questions for the EU and NATO for

months or years to come. So, Janan, Ukraine is over? Where the west to

concede to the Russian in Crimea, it would perversely be a net loss for

Russia. You'd assume the rest of Ukraine would become an un

unambiguously a member of the the EU, maybe NATO. On top of that a

Russian dream of Eurasion dream, they will look at Putin's behaviour

and is a, no, thanks, we'll head towards the EU. It is a short-term

victory for Putin which backfires on his broader goals in Well, many

people said if he grabs Crimea, he loses Ukraine, which is your point.

We have seen violent demonstrations in the big eastern cities in Ukraine

yesterday. People taking control of certain buildings. The risk is there

of spreading beyond Crimea. I think the lack of any unified or visible

response from Ukrainian armed forces... They allowed Russian

troops to walk into the bases in Crimea. They have supposedly gone on

red alert but they have done absolutely nothing. We don't see

them deploying from barracks. There are serious questions about whether

they would just fall apart. Putin is not going to let them split away. I

would have thought he would like the entire Ukraine to come into the

Russian ambit. Barack Obama is saying this will not stand. He has a

90 minute conversation with Vladimir Putin and what is his response? I am

suspending my cooperation in the run-up to the Sochi Summit. What is

the EU doing? Nothing. There is nothing they can do and Putin knows

there are a series of lines that he is able to cross and get away with

it. Why should Berlin, London, Washington be surprised by the

strength of Vladimir Putin's reaction? It was never going to let

Ukraine just fall into the arms of the EU. That is the interesting

point. And who does he listen to? Paddy Ashdown was saying sent Angela

Merkel because she is the only person who can talk to him and I

find that response worrying. We need to speak with a united voice but

nobody knows what we should be saying. Military intervention is out

for the West so we go to economic sanctions. Doesn't Vladimir Putin

just say, oh, you want sanctions? I have turned off the gas tap. Yes, it

is move and countermove, and it is difficult to predict where it will

end up. In all these meetings that are being held, they do think a step

or two ahead and try and set out clear lines. Thank you for coming in

this morning. Labour has been struggling since

2010 to decide exactly how to take education secretary Michael Gove,

one of the boldest reformers of the coalition and most divisive figures.

Ed Miliband appointed TV historian Tristram Hunt and many thought

Labour had found the man to teach Michael Gove a lesson. But how much

do we really know about the party's plans for England's schools? Wales,

Scotland and Northern Ireland are a devolved matter. Child has been back

to school to find out. A politician once told me, do you know why

education secretaries changed schools? Because they can. Michael

Gove might dispute the motive but he is changing schools, like this one.

The changes he is ringing in our encouraging them to be academies,

free from local authorities to control their own budgets, ushering

in free schools, focusing on toughening exams and making them the

core of the curriculum with less coursework, and offering heads more

discretion on tougher discipline. And he is in a hurry to put all this

in place. But has that shut out any chance for a Labour Government to

change it all themselves and do they really want to? Any questions?

Visiting a different school, first in line to get a crack at that

would-be Labour's third shadow education secretary since 2010,

Tristram Hunt. In post, he has not been taken about fine tuning

previous direct opposition to free schools and he has also suggested

teachers in England would have to be licensed under a Labour Government,

allowing the worst to be sacked and offering training and development to

others and of course ending coalition plans to allow unqualified

teachers into classrooms. Full policy detail is still unmarked

work. Your opinion about evolution? What is very clear is that Labour's

education policy is still evolving. We are learning that they have some

clear water, but we also seem, from the sting at the back, to get the

feeling that there is not a great deal of difference from them and the

current Government on types of schools and the way education should

proceed. -- from listening at the back. So what exactly is different

about their policy? What Tristram Hunt's job is to do is to be open

and honest about the shared agenda between us and the Tories. There are

a lot of areas where there is clear water between us and Tristram Hunt

as to turn his back, shared agenda, stop fighting it, and forge

as to turn his back, shared agenda, agenda, which I think people will be

really interested in. The art of Government, of course, is to balance

competing pictures of policy, even inside your own party. It is fair to

say that if Labour reflects and draws its own visions of a shared

agenda, it might have to square that idea with teaching unions, who are

already unhappy with the pace and tone of change that the Government

had sketched out. What we sincerely hope is that if Labour were to form

the next Government, that they would look at a serious review of

accountability measures. That is really what ways on teachers every

single day. Actually they would look at restoring the possibility, for

example, of local councillors to be able to open schools. That seems

eminently sensible. If they are not going to move back from the free

schools and academies programme, at the very least they need to say that

academy chains will be inspected because at the moment they are not.

Labour have balls in the air on education and are still throwing

around precise policy detail. There are areas that they could grab hold

of and seize possession. A focus on the rounding of the people,

developing character, the impact of digitalisation on the classroom.

Also the role and handling of teachers in the system and the

interdependence of schools. That is all still to play for. Currently I

think the difference between the parties is that the coalition

policies, while we do not agree with all of them, are clear and explicit,

and Labour's policies are yet to be formulated in a way that everybody

can understand clearly. I don't think that Tristram Hunt or Miliband

will want to pick unnecessary fights before the election. I think we will

have quite a red, pinkish fuzziness around the whole area of policy but

after the election there will be grey steel from Tristram Hunt. But

if fuzzy policy before the election is the lesson plan, it does rather

risk interested voters being left in the dark.

Tristram Hunt joins me now for the Sunday interview.

Welcome. Thank you. Which of Michael Gove's school reforms would you

repeal? We are not interested in throwing a change for the sake of

it. When I go round schools, teachers have been through very

aggressive changes in the last three years, so when it comes to some of

the curriculum reforms we have seen, we are not interested in changing

those for the sake of it. Where we are interested in making change is

having a focus on technical and vocational education, making sure

that the forgotten 15% is properly addressed in our education system.

What we saw in your package was an interesting description of how we

have seen structural reforms in the names of schools. Academies, free

schools, all the rest of it. International evidence is clear that

it is the quality of leadership of the headteachers and the quality of

teaching in the classroom that transforms the prospects of young

people. Instead of tinkering around the names of schools, we focus on

teacher quality. Viewers will be shocked to note that this Government

approves of unqualified teachers in the classroom. We want to have fully

qualified, passionate, motivated teachers in the classroom. It sounds

like you might not repeal anything. You might build on it and you might

go in a different direction, with more emphasis on technological

education but no major repeal of the reforms of Michael Gove? I don't

think you want to waste energy on undoing reforms. In certain

situations they build on Labour Party policy. We introduced the

sponsored academy programmes and we began the Teach First programmes,

and we began the London challenge which transformed the educational

prospects of children in London. We want to roll that out across the

country. You have said there will be no more free schools, which Michael

Gove introduced, but you will allow parents let academies, which just

means free schools by a different name. No, because they will be in

certain areas. We want to create new schools with parents. What we have

at the moment is a destructive and market-driven approach to

education. I was in Stroud on Thursday and plans for a big new

school, in an area with surplus places, threatened to destroy the

viability of local, rural schools. We want schools to work together in

a network of partnership and challenge, rather than this

destructive market-driven approach. You say that, but your version of

free schools, I think, would only be allowed where there is a shortage of

places. That means that where there is an excess of bad schools, parents

will have no choice. They still have to send their kids to bad schools.

And we have to transform bad schools and that was always the Labour way

in Government. At the moment we just have an insertion of new schools.

Schools currently underperforming are now underperforming even more.

Children only have one chance at education. What about their time in

school? Our focus is on the leadership of the headteacher and

having quality teachers in the classroom. So they cannot set up new

better schools and they have to go to the bad schools. Tony Blair said

it should be easier for parents to set up new schools where they are

dissatisfied with existing schools. You are not saying that. Even where

they are dissatisfied with existing schools, they cannot set up free

schools and you are reneging on that. We live in difficult economic

circumstances where we have got to focus public finances on the areas

of absolute need. We need 250,000 new school places. 150,000 in London

alone. We have to focus on building new schools and where we have to put

them. And secondly... Absolutely not. Focusing on those schools.

Making sure we turned them around, just as we did in Government. We

have had a remarkable degree of waste under the free school

programme. If you think of the free school in Derby, the Academy in

Bradford, and as we saw in the Telegraph on Friday, the free

schools in Suffolk, a great deal of waste of public money on

underperforming free schools. That is not the Labour way. We focus on

making sure that kids in schools at the moment get the best possible

education. Except that in your own backyard, in Stoke, only 34% of

secondary school pupils attend a good or outstanding school. 148 out

of 150 of the worst performing local authorities and it is

Labour-controlled. Still terrible schools and yet you say parents

should not have the freedom to start a better school. We have great

schools in Stoke-on-Trent as well. We face challenges, just as

Wolverhampton does and the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire. Just like

large parts of the country. What is the solution to that? Making sure we

share excellence among the existing schools and making sure we have

quality leadership in schools. Those schools in Stoke-on-Trent are all

academies. It is not a question only of structure but of leadership. It

is also a question of going back to the responsibility of parents to

make sure their kids are school ready when they get to school. To

make sure they are reading to their children in the evening. We can't

put it all on teachers. Parents have responsibilities. I understand that

but you have told me Labour's policy would not be to set up new schools

which parents hope will be better. Parents continue to send their kids

to bad schools in areas like Stoke. Labour has had plenty of time to

sort out these schools in Stoke and they are still among the worst

performing in the country. You are condemning these parents to having

to send their kids to bad schools. Where we

to send their kids to bad schools. of Derby, Suffolk, we have seen that

is not the simple solution. Is simply setting up a new is not a

successful model. What works is good leadership. I was in Birmingham on

Friday at a failing comprehensive is not a successful model. What works

is good leadership. I was in Birmingham on Friday at a failing

comprehensive school and now people are queueing round the block to get

into it. You can turn around schools with the right leadership,

passionate and motivated teachers, and parents engaged with the

learning outcome of their kids. In the last few years of the Labour

Government, only four kids from your this Government would set up the new

school. In Birmingham, they got in a great headmaster and turned the

school around and now people are queueing round the block to get into

it. You can turnaround schools with the right leadership, passionate and

motivated teachers, and parents engaged with the learning outcome of

their kids. In the last few years of a Labour Government, only four kids

from your area of and you had plenty of chances to put this right but

only four got to the two and you had plenty of chances to put this right

but only four got to the two leading universities.

but only four got to the two leading people could leave school at 16 and

walking two jobs in the potteries, the steel industry, the

traditionally young people could leave school at 16 and walking two

jobs in the potteries, the steel industry, the but also to get an

apprenticeship at Jaguar Land Rover, JCB, Rolls-Royce. That is why

Ed Miliband's focus on the forgotten 15%, which we have just not seen

from this Government, focusing on technical and vocational pathways,

is fundamental to Your headmaster was guiles Slaughter. Was he a good

teacher? He He never taught me. Over 90% of teeners in the private

sector are qualified. They look for not simply teachers with qualified

teacher status. Teachers with MAs. Teachers who are improving them

cephalitis. Becoming better educators.

cephalitis. Becoming better teaching. You were taught by

unqualified teachers. Your parents paid over ?15,000 a year for you

being taught by unqualified teachers. Why did you make such a

big deal of it? Because we've seen right around the world those

education systems which focus on having the most qualified teachers

perform the best. It cannot be right that anyone can simply turn

perform the best. It cannot be right at the moment, have schools at

veritising for unqualified teachers teaching in the classroom. We want

the best qualified teachers with the deepest subject knowledge, for the

passion in learning for their kids. It is absurd we are having arguments

about this. Simply having a paper qualification doesn't make you a

great teacher. Let me take you to Brighton college. It is gone from

the 147th to the 18 18th best private school in the land. Fllt the

headmaster says: This is the top Sundaytimes school

of the year. The school in derby where this Government allowed

unqualified teaching assist taints. We had teachers who could barely

speak English. That is because if you have unqualified teachers you

end up with a dangerous situation. The problem with that school was not

unqualified teachers. People were running that school who were unfit

to run a school. We have an issue about discipline and behaviour

management in some of our schools. Some of the skills teachers gain

through qualifications and learning is how to manage classes and get the

best out of kids at every stage. It doesn't end with a qualified teacher

status. That's just the beginning. We want our teachers to have

continue it will development. It is not good enough to have your initial

teacher trainingaged work through your career for 30 years. You need

continual learning. Learning how to deal with digital technology.

Refresh your subject knowledge. As an historian I help teachers. You've

taught as an unqualified teacher. Not in charge of a subject group. I

give the odd lecture. I'm-y to go to as many schools as possible. I don't

blame you. It is uplifting. Would you sack all unqualified teachers?

We'd want them all to gain teacher status. What if they say no? If they

are not interested in improving skills and deepening their knowledge

they should not be in the classroom. skills and deepening their knowledge

If a free school or academy hired a teach thinking they are a great

teacher but unqualified, if they are then forced by you to fire them,

they will be in breach of the law. They are being urged by us to make

sure they have qualified teacher status. We've lots of unqualified

teachers as long as they are on the pathway to making sure they are

qualified. But if they say they don't want to do this, will you fire

them? It is not an unreasonable suggestion is that the teachers in

charge of our young people have qualifications to teach and inspire

our young people particularly when we face global competition from

Shanghai, Korea and so on. The head teacher of Brighton college finds

incredibly inspeechational teachers who don't' necessarily have a

teaching qualifications. It is a different skill to teach ten young

nice boys and girls in Brighton to teaches 20 or 30 quids with

challenging circumstances, special educational needs, different

ability. Being a teacher at Brighton college is an easy gig in comparison

to other schools. Where we want teachers to have a capacity to teach

properly. Do you think Tristram could ever lead the Labour Party? I

think Ed is a great leader, the reforms yesterday were a real sign

for his leadership. And the fact David Owen, the man with a

pre-history with our party is back with us. It is great. Even Gideon

had to change his name to George. Have you thought of switching to

Tommy or Tony? Maybe not Tony! Michael Foot was called Dingle Foot.

I love the Labour because it accepts everybody from me to Len McCluskey.

We are a big, broad happy family on our way to Government. Thank you

very much. You're watching The Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us for Sunday

politics Scotland. In over 20 minutes I'll look

Hello. On the Sunday Politics Wales: A UK Government minister makes the

case for welfare cuts. We've also asked Welsh voters what they think.

And how well will UKIP perform in the European elections in May? We

hear from their lead candidate. But first, I'm joined by Kirsty

Williams, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Tomorrow, the UK

Government's Silk Commission is expected to recommend more powers

for the Assembly. For Lib Dems, the commission is a key part of their

coalition deal with the Conservatives. But has that

coalition cost them votes? Opinion polls suggest so. Christie, welcome

to the programme. A BBC Wales opinion poll this week with support

for your party at 9%. That is down 11 points on the 2010 general

election. Was this coalition really worth it? Yes, I think it is. It is

worth it not just because of the commission, which I am sure will

talk about later, but because of the month we have been able to achieve,

as Liberal Democrats, our number one commitment to ensure that nobody

paid any income tax on the. That has seen tens of thousands of Wills

workers but lifted out of tax altogether. What accounts for your

support was off the cliff? -- of Wills workers. I think her policies

are the right ones. Whether it is creating 1 million jobs across the

UK... We have seen employment rising in Wills. Whether it is a fairer

deal for our poorest paid or pensioners. These are things that

would not have happened without the Liberal Democrats. And I am talking

to people on the doorsteps, there is an understanding that the Lib Dems

have played their part in ensuring that those things that have happened

and in censoring a Conservative party that would have gone off to

the right is not for our presence. Widely not want to vote for you? I

think there is a growing understanding of what these global

Democrats have achieved. -- widely not want. They recognise the role we

have played in bringing the economy back to a state where the economy is

beginning to grow, where we have more jobs in Wales and more people

in work, as where as a fairer taxation system which benefit Wales

hugely. Also a fair deal for orchestras. What do people say about

welfare cuts? We will be looking at that and Paul later on. -- we will

be looking at that in our survey. You want a farewell tour system that

takes care of people who have lost their job. -- a fairer welfare

system that takes care of people. They also want one that is fairer

and one that does not trap people in the welfare system. We have seen in

Wales generations of families that have been trapped in the welfare

system that because of the way it is structured, it is nigh on impossible

for them to take the risk of taking on work and getting out of the

system because work will not pay for them. What people want is a fairer

system that looks after people that needs help and enables people, where

variable, to get back into the workplace when they are able. Of

people like what you're doing, I am confused why the opinion polls are

so bad. With a European election around the corner, realistically,

what is the outlook for the Lib Dems at the European elections? Will be

campaigning across Wales, like I did yesterday, giving people a positive

message about why Wales benefits from being in Europe. We are the

only UK National party that has that clear message. We are not divided

like the other parties about Europe. We want to be in Europe, he with

reforms, but in. It is vital for the Welsh economy, Welsh jobs, the Welsh

rural economy that supports the agricultural industry and

developments in rural Wales. It is a positive message about protecting

those jobs by being in Europe. Let's talk about one of the confidence of

the Coalition, as you would see. The Silk Commission we understand will

call for further devolution tomorrow. Including over the police.

Are you pleased by that? We will wait to see what the Silk Commission

comes up with tomorrow. Welsh Liberal Democrats have always argued

for greater powers to come to the Welsh government. A big move for

them to be in charge of the police, is it not? I would welcome that very

much indeed and that alongside policy that is already devolved.

Such as domestic violence. The Welsh Government and Welsh Assembly

already have a role in keeping communities safe. The Welsh

Government, for instance, does contribute to the employment of PC

SOus, which help keep streets safe. It seems a very logical that we

should have the least of all and therefore policing varieties can

reflect the people of Wales. We will have to wait to see what silk says

tomorrow. It may be logical but is the Assembly up to the job with 60

AMus? Is that enough to take on more powers over the police? There is an

argument to be had about the right number of Assembly Members but do

not think they'd do talk about Assembly Members in isolation. We

need to look at how all of the Government of Wills works and

whether we have the right for politicians at the right level? Have

we? Have got too many MPs? What is your opinion? I think that it is

inevitable that if we move additional things to the Assembly

then we need to decrease the amount we send to Westminster -- the amount

of MPs and have more in the Assembly. The Welsh public will have

to be convinced of that and that it should not cost the public any more.

Public might be confused by this constant talk of referendums and

more powers coming down to Cardiff Bay. Yet we have the same number of

MPs in Westminster. They are giving up power. How many MPs and how many

AMus do we need? Let's put a figure on it. The number will flow from the

possibilities of Parliament and of the Assembly. What I think we are

absolutely clear on is that the Welsh public would like to see as

move towards a more permanent settlement, where we are not

constantly having these commissions to try to adjust it. I hope that

what Silk will come up with tomorrow is a very definite plan of how we

can move to a more sustainable and stable devolution settlement so that

we do not keep having to have these conversations. Once that is clear,

about what the responsibilities will be of the Assembly as what the

responsibility will be of Welsh MPs in Parliament, then we can have a

discussion about what is the right number of politicians you need for

those jobs. It cannot be a system that costs the Welsh taxpayer more

than it currently does however. Are you sure you are taking the public

with you? Our poll found that 23% of people now want to abolish the

Assembly. That is a minority but it it is a minority that is completely

this franchise. What your poll also showed was that there was a majority

of people in Wales in favour of extra powers coming to the National

Assembly. I think I agree with the analysis of Roger Scully. There has

been a hardening of the position of those people that want to see the

Assembly abolished. I suspect a lot of that is to do with frustration at

the performance of the Welsh Government. It is always a challenge

to be able to get through to the Welsh people the differentiation

between the Assembly itself on the performance of the Welsh Government.

That with negligible or services, the NHS. This week, you will be

calling for legislation to introduce a minimum number grey seal of nurses

to patients in hospital wards. -- minimum ratio. Let's be absolutely

clear. We know that there is a direct link between the number of

registered nurses that work on a hospital ward and the outcome for

patients. We also know that in Wales at the moment our nurses in our

hospitals are looking after mosque patients -- more patience than their

counterparts in Scotland, Northern Ireland and England. The answer is

surely to spend more. What we need to do is ensure that we have

adequate numbers of staff or hospital wards. We need to ensure

good outcomes for patients and to ensure that our nurses are able to

carry out the care that they have been trained to do. We know that the

chief nursing officer for Wales been trained to do. We know that the

already publishes guidance to local health boards on the number of

nurses that there should be. Very often, local health boards do not

actually avoid those nurses on words. I want to ensure that Welsh

patients have access to the quality care that I'm now Welsh nurses are

capable of delivering and want to deliver but often are not able to

deliver because people at the board level, who are looking to save

money, look to nurse numbers first rather than ensuring that those

posts are projected. We have seen some very, very shocking stories

about the Health Service. Not just in Wells, across the UK. It is the

ways we can put confidence back into the Health Service in Wales is by

ensuring that we have a legal requirement about the number of

nurses and patients that they are looking after. Thank you very much,

Kirsty. We will watch the progress Kirsty. We will watch the progress

Welsh political conference season is about to start. Over the next few

weeks, we'll hear from Plaid Cymru, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and

the Conservatives ahead of the European elections. And at those

elections, all eyes will be on the UK Independence Party to see how

well they perform. UKIP aren't having a Welsh conference but their

members were in Torquay on Friday to hear from the party's lead European

candidate for Wales. He spoke to our reporter James Williams.

That lead candidate is Nathan Deal. Thank you very much for joining us.

Your ambition is to talk the poll in Wales. It is no mean feat but we

have every possibility of doing it. Our membership has grown

phenomenally in Wales. The number of branches that we have has

quadrupled. The supporter getting on the streets will be to people with

action days, we are knocking on doors, it is fantastic. People know

that this election is all about the European Union and membership of

it, who governs Britain and unlimited open door and aggression.

People have had enough and want to see a change. They went to see

written taking back our sovereignty. -- they want to see. Is immigration

such a big issue in Wales? Surprisingly it is. I was the

candidate in the by-election in Anglesey and we made it one of the

issues that we spoke about judging that election. I was Axel surprised

myself just how impassioned people felt about immigration. -- I was

actually surprised. It is nothing to do with immigration the racism race.

It is that we have limited school and hospital places.

It is that we have limited school our doors, slim them open and allow

anybody to come here. What kind of a sovereign government do we have to

say that they have set targets for immigration knowing that there is no

point leaving the front door wide open and closing the back door? How

much of a story is UKIP in Wales? It has been setting the agenda in

England but you have not made the mark that perhaps has been made in

England. You are right there. We feel that we need to get people

elected to Westminster. As soon as this election is over, we will focus

and target everything we have to cave in Westminster seats. We also

know that it is crucial to get people elected to the Welsh

Assembly. -- to get Westminster seats. Opinion poll after opinion

poll has shown that we are very likely to get 5amus elected. That is

going to go us the ability to show the people of Wales what a potential

UK government could do it well. We are not career politicians. We are

not people who have gone to university and taught how to get

slick responses to journalists. We are just people who believe in what

we are saying and we want to see our nation and country a better place.

With regards to this election in May, no obvious ambition is to get

to the European union and withdraw. More than half of the people in

Wales in our poll this week say they want to stay. That figure does what

rate up and down. Up and down, the actual debate has not be gone about

leaving. We have not been given the platform and ability to inform the

electorate about the realities of EU membership. When that debate has

given, we are very confident that the people of Wales will choose to

leave the EU. -- when that debate is given.

Politicians all want to get the long-term unemployed back to work.

But that's where the consensus ends on welfare reform. The UK coalition

government is pushing ahead with radical changes to the system.

There's been vocal criticism from the Welsh government. We want to

know what you think on benefit cuts. We'll have the results of our poll

in a few minutes. But first, Tomos Livingstone recently went to Bargoed

in the South Wales valleys with a UK minister who says the welfare system

must change to help balance the books.

The facade may have stayed the same but inside, this Baptist Chapel in

Bargoed has been totally transformed. It now houses the town

library and acts as a one-stop shop for the local community. The

faithful still have space to worship on a lower floor. One scheme run

from here helps those who are out of work to look for jobs. For many

local people, the services provided here are a It could very well be the

only community facility that is available in that particular

location. It is a safe facility that people can access at any time of

their life, really. So everybody is welcome and everybody feels that

they, particularly within this community, and the building

themselves. The process of transforming welfare policy itself

is proving just as an script. -- just as intricate. With 2000 people

everybody agrees the problem is complicated. How you see the answer

depends on your political colouring. It is no secret that the Welsh

Government and UK Government do not often sing from the same sheet. It

is difficult to think of an area where the differences are so stark

as welfare reform. The UK's message is clear, this is an opportunity to

get people off benefits and into work. The Welsh Government is

equally adamant that it will hit Wales disproportionately large.

Those reforms include replacing a series of existing benefits with one

Universal Credit. A challenge for government IT systems, if nothing

else. UK ministers have also started a controversial process of

reassessing people on sickness benefits to see if they are fit for

work. Stephen Crabb, the Wales office minister, says

work. Stephen Crabb, the Wales reform, if not more, from the rest

of the UK. The tragedy we have is that even though the statistics at

the moment are telling us that good things are happening, that a record

number of people in Wales are working and a lake record -- a

record low number of people who are in it -- enacted, there are many

people who have never worked. There are 92,000 children in Wales growing

up in a house where nobody works. We need to change that. It is a

personal issue for the MP, who has his own experience of the way they

welfare system works. I had the privilege of growing up in a home

seeing a woman, my mother, who was raising three boys on her own in

council housing making that turning from being totally reliant on

benefits and generosity, building up her hours by getting small jobs in a

local office, building up her skills and her benefits were being reduced

as she was increasing her working hours but determined to get new

skills, build up her confidence and make that journey through to

full-time employment. Not everybody sees it like that. Labour say Mr

Grabb and his colleagues are not addressing the long-term problems.

It is very important that people are getting into quality implement, not

low wage, part ten, zero our work on which is increasingly happening.

There is nothing fair about welfare reform which introduces a bedroom

tax and which introduces Universal Credit in a venue have Dwayne. A

system where people must access various entitlement through the

Internet where many people do not have access to it. Welfare policy is

not the fault but that has not stopped Welsh Government ministers

describing the reforms as a social atrocity. They insist people in

Wales are worse off as a result. Whichever way the arguments stack

up, it is likely that welfare reform will remain a hot political topic as

the general election draws nearer. That is our correspondent reporting

on his recent trip to Bargoed. We will stay with welfare and this

year's recent survey conducted for BBC Wales.

We asked or welfare benefits, which of the following best reflect your

view... Joining me now is our political

editor Nick Servini. Neck, the Tories say these welfare reforms are

popular. Our poll seems to suggest that they are right. It is something

that we have heard a lot of and to some extent, Dan, maybe an

assumption that they are popular in some of more affluent constituencies

in England. The big question is how popular they are in Wales. I think

it will be a central part of the general election campaign. As you

say, the results of the survey suggest that roughly two thirds of

people are either happy with what the Government is doing, the UK

government, or believe it should go further. We have had a raft of

stories from charities, to the Catholic Church, warning that those

two are most vulnerable in society are being hit too hard. Underpinned,

as Thomas said, by a very strong message from the Labour Welsh

Government. Comments from, for example, the education minister,

saying that it is destabilising, damaging and having a devastating

impact. Not so long ago, I was at a community centre and Iain Duncan

Smith, the architect of many of these welfare changes... From him,

you get an almost evangelical delay that morally, they have the duty to

lift people out of welfare reform. Together with the which personal

message from Steve Crabb, I get a sense that they are willing to have

this battle on wheels. It be interesting to see how that pans

out. I have been getting another perspective. -- battle in Wales. I

caught up with somebody at Cardiff University earlier in the week. We

are seeing, in fact, not just among conservative reporters but even

among supporters of the Labour Party and Plaid Cymru, quite a lot of

endorsement for policies on welfare benefits and even some people

suggesting that cutbacks or measures against those claiming benefits

should be taken further. That is possibly rather surprising for many

people but that is a message that comes through very clearly. This is

not just about Conservative supporting government policy Liberal

Democrats, it is actually pretty high levels of support across both.

Let's talk about the Silk Commission's second report. We

gathered will recommend that policing should be devolved. What

are the arguments? For those who favour devolution of policing, Dan,

and we have already heard some of them being laid out, on a day level,

what they say is that policemen and women right across Wales,

particularly in the realms of community safety, dealing with

alcohol and drug problems and domestic violence, they work

primarily with devolved agencies and local authorities already so the

argument will be that it makes sense to devolve policing as well and as a

result you can have a more coordinated approach. On the flip

side, one of the strongest argument is that this is the thin end of the

wedge. Certainly the argument that we will hear the most. The police is

the front end of a huge structure, which is the criminal Justice

network. Going from the Crown Prosecution Service to the courts,

prisons and ultimately criminal law in Wales. We will have voices like

Christopher Sammon, who we heard this morning, the Crown Police

Commissioner. Saying that the assertion of Cardiff has another

administrative level and this will add complexity and cost. -- the

insertion of Cardiff as another administrative level.

IQ for joining me. I hope you can join the next week. We'll be back

Government to change it. Thank you both for being here. Andrew, back to

you. This week grant Shap said he wanted

to rebrand the Tories as the workers' party to show it can reach

out to blue-collar workers. One Conservative Party MP said they

should scrap what he said was their boring old logo. We asked him and

two other independent MPs how they'd freshen up their logos.

Aspiration's always been our core value. About helping people get on

with life. Giving people ladders of opportunity. That's why our symbol

must reflect our values of aspiration and why I'm calling for

our symbol to be changed from a tree to a ladder which symbolises social

mobility and stands up for everything conservatism represents.

I like an he will fanned, an animal that never forgets. We're the only

party which seems to remember what life was like before the NHS and

minimum wage and the global financial crash was caused by too

little regulation not too much. We have a leader who can spot the

elephant in the room, the lack of women on the Tory frontbench. The

republicans in America have had the same idea. Theirs is a suspicious

blue. Our would be deepest red. same idea. Theirs is a suspicious

love our Liberal Democrat bird. Mrs Thatcher called it the dead parrot

when we launched it. We won the Eastbourne by-election off the

Tories very soon aftered with. Perhaps it feels like we're in a

coalition cage but we're escaping that soon. Why does it fly to the

right? Most Liberal Democrats would want it to fly to the left. I hope

it will soon. Interesting there. Let's stick with

the Robert Hall pin one. He was being serious. The others were fun.

It is interesting that talking about appealing to the blue collared vote,

the upper working class, lower middle class, curiously now neither

Mr Cameron nor Mr Miliband has great cut through with these people.

Mr Cameron nor Mr Miliband has great in wanting to be the Workers Party,

how do you square that with choosing five old Etonians to draw up four

next manifesto. Labour said one of the things was cutting inheritance

tax, after all their priorities they went to privilege rather than earned

income. Rebranding is not enough. The one question the modernisers

never asked themselves when they took party ten years ago is the

thing we know as the Conservative Party, salvageable as a brand? I'm

beginning to think it isn't. If you look at all public opinion research,

there are lots of people in this contrary with Conservative views.

They won't vote Tory or contemplate the possibility of voting Tory. Can

we get over the electoral problems by relaunching as a different

pro-business, pro-worker party. That means new name, new logo. It will

mean new people as well. If you say you're on the sides of what Thatcher

called the strivers, the people themselves want to see you have

strivers in the people who run your party so you know what we've been

through, the struggles we've had. How many of the six drawing up the

manifesto have had ever a mortgage. The one who's not an old Etonian

went to St Paul's. He's a day schoolboy! It is interesting and it

was funny you mentioned an elephant. Don't think of an elephant as the

title of that book. Calling it the Workers Party draws attention to the

Tories biggest electoral weakness. The idea they are a class apart. Out

of touch. I think it is interesting, they have identified their elections

are won or lost by this particular demo graphic of the C 1, and C 2.

Mrs Thatcher got them by the shed load, Tony Blair got them. His

failure in 2010 is the reason David Cameron didn't win an overall

majority. I'm disappointed with the ladder. You should have a hammer or

sickle! The Conservatives have a terrible brand problem. You heard

them explaining why they did badly in the Wythenshawe by-election,

saying there's quite a large council estate there In 1961, I think the

Conservatives won a by-election back then, they were getting through to

those sort of voters. There is not a single Conservative councillor in

Manchester. They have this terrible problem. You're right for them to

pick up on the five Etonians writing their manifesto. David Cameron sir

rounding himself with his own. He doesn't have to do that. I seas

things like isn't Robert Halpen great. He decides and has his own.

He has some more slightly common people from St Paul's! One of the

ways the Conservatives hoped to broaden their appeal is the tougher

line on immigration. We learned net immigration is rising substantially.

Back up over 200,000. Nigel Farage of UKIP wrapped up the rhetoric. In

scores of our cities and market towns, this country, in a short

space of time, has become N'Zonzi rkable whether it is --

unrecognisable. Whether it is the impact on local schools and

hospitals. In many parts of England you don't hear English spoken, this

is not the kind of the community we want to leave to our children and

grandchildren. Helen, maybe people, I assume, will love the sentiments.

Others will say, this is getting... It is going down a dangerous road.

Nigel Farage's wife is German and he shares a flat with Godfully Bloom,

nobody knows what he's saying shares a flat with Godfully Bloom,

of the time. You can handle the letters from Yorkshire. Alex Salmond

does not make his case on Scotland for the Scottish. Let's put aside

whether the policy's right or wrong. How bad, by the Tories own lights,

is the fact the net figure for immigration went up 60,000? It looks

really bad. If I was a Tory strategist, I'd be philosophical

about it. Immigration, even if they were meeting the target, I don't

think the public would believe it. It is like crime a few years ago,

the crime rates had been declining for the best part of 20 years but

the fear of crime remains high. There's such a degree of cynicism

that regardless of your administrative record in Government,

the public will remain hostile to you. This is where Nigel Farage can

be potent. He said it is not about numbers. It is about community. It

is about people seeing their communities change. And in the

Sunday Telegraph, it was said this isn't a dog whistle, a it is a meaty

bone for a bull terrier. The problem for the Government on these figures

is we know why the net migration figures are not looking good. They

got down the non-EU figures but the EU figures are going up. From Italy

and Spain as their economies tanked, people came here. If he hadn't made

such a big deal of the numbers, the Tories, I mean, you could present

this as a huge success story. If you believe immigration was good for the

country. You would say it doesn't matter what Labour says, the best

and the brightest young people from all over Europe are voting with

their feet to come to Britain. But you never hear that case being made

and certainly not by Labour. They acknowledge although immigration is

best in the abstract for the economy, people don't feel it in

their daily lives. There's a huge vacuum for the case where

immigration should be in our public life. I remember a time when the

economy was in such decline there was a rush to the door in the

sixties and seventies. Now we are claiming our economy's doing better

than any of the other major economies bar Germany, people want

to join in our success. London was a economies bar Germany, people want

declining city until the mid-eighties. Theresa May cannot be

honest. She was proposing a cap on immigration. Not going to happen.

Today she is saying maybe people from poorer member states cannot

come in until their economies grow. That's future accession states.

That's Turkey in ten years' time It is causing divisions with the

coalition. She's bashing Vince Cable. You often see Liberal

Democrats bashing the Tories. You don't often see a Tory minister bash

Vince Cable. She does on the immigration figures. He thought they

were good news. Last week, Vince responded to the news by saying it

was a policy he was happy for the gift to flunk. The problem was going

for a cap. There are six moving parts. UK citizens leaving, coming

for a cap. There are six moving back. EU citizens leaving and coming

back and then third party nationals. And students coming to study. Of

course. You only have control over the EU citizens. Have you to clamp

down on ace strayian, Chinese or American graduates. They should have

gone for the Australian points system. I don't have a pure cap on

numbers just background etc. Tim Farran said in the European election

either vogue Liberal Democrat or UKIP. He turned that to his

advantage. It is hopeful but he's come up with a way to spin this.

Labour has his special conference. Was it or was it not an event? Not

sure it was the biggest moment in the party since 1918. But things

fell apart in the special conference in 1981. 2004 got another special

conference. Who's on board? David Owen who founded the gang of four.

He's not joined but he's given them money. He's not going to sit with

them in the Lord's. He's given money. They lost the gang of four.

Back comes David Owen. Not historic? Why would he want it to be more

significant than it was. There's a tendency to see him taking the fight

to his party. Why would he want that? The fact it has not pleased

Grant Shapps is not a test to see whether this has worked. It has been

described as an historic moment and incremental of what John did. The

trade union block voters disappeared a long time ago. They still have 50%

of the vote. But 2,000 of union members voting for this guy has

gone. It is a reform from 20 years ago. Welcome but not historic. Ed

Miliband's stored up trouble. Len McCluskey wants a million new homes

and answered to the benefit caps is not reconcilable with the deficit

reduction strategy. In five years' time if there is a Labour Government

it becomes very difficult. We should keep an eye on it? Always. Labour

Party process is never ending. Unlike this programme. That's all

from us today. Continuing reports of events in the Ukraine on the BBC

News Channel. There's no Daily Politics tomorrow because of cover

Arg of the Nelson Mandela memorial service at Westminster Abbey on BBC

Two live. We'll be back on the Daily Politics on Tuesday at midday. We'll

be back here next week with the Work and Pensions Secretary, Ian Smith.

If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.