Browse content similar to 16/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth | :00:38. | :00:46. | |
Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for | :00:47. | :00:48. | |
middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
top story. Ed Balls says millions of people | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy | :00:56. | :00:58. | |
with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
Later in the programme... I've been means | :01:11. | :01:16. | |
Later in the programme... I've been talking to the UK Government | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
minister responsible for welfare reform and can the Budget benefit | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
the economic green shoots of recovery in Wales. | :01:22. | :01:22. | |
the economic green shoots of restoring confidence in the safety | :01:23. | :01:24. | |
of cycling. The three areas of London getting a cash boost to try | :01:25. | :01:26. | |
something different. And with me as always our top | :01:27. | :01:38. | |
political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the | :01:41. | :01:45. | |
programme. So, just three months after his last major financial | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday, | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his | :01:54. | :01:56. | |
own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy". The | :01:57. | :02:07. | |
message I will give in the Budget is the economic plan is working but the | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
job is far from done. We need to build resilient economy which means | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
addressing the long-term weaknesses in Britain that we don't export | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
enough, invest enough, build enough, make enough. Those are the things I | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
will address because we want Britain to earn its way in the world. George | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls, has also been talking ahead of the | :02:26. | :02:28. | |
Budget. He says not everyone is feeling the benefit of the economic | :02:29. | :02:31. | |
recovery, and again attacked the Government's decision to reduce the | :02:32. | :02:38. | |
top rate of tax from 50 to 45%. George Osborne is only ever tough | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
when he's having a go at the week and the voiceless. Labour is willing | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
to face up to people on the highest incomes and say, I'm sorry, | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
justifying a big tax cut at this time is not fair. We will take away | :02:50. | :02:55. | |
the winter allowance from the richer pensioners, and I think that's the | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
right thing to do. George Osborne might agree, but he's not allowed to | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
say so. That was the Chancellor and the shadow chancellor. Janan, it | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
seems like we are in a race against time. No one argues that the | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
recovery is not under way, in fact it looks quite strong after a long | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
wait, but will it feed through to the living standards of ordinary | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
people in time for the May election? They only have 14 months to do it. | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
The big economic variable is business investment. Even during the | :03:26. | :03:29. | |
downturn, businesses hoarded a lot of cash. The question is, are they | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
confident enough to release that into investment and wages? Taking on | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
new people, giving them higher pay settlements. That could make the | :03:39. | :03:41. | |
difference and the country will feel more prosperous and this time next | :03:42. | :03:48. | |
year. But come to think of it, it strikes me, that how anticipated it | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
is, it's the least talked about Budget for many years. I think that | :03:53. | :03:55. | |
is because the economy has settled down a bit, but also because people | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
have got used to the idea that there is no such thing as a giveaway. | :04:01. | :04:04. | |
Anything that is a tax cut will be taken away as a tax rise or spending | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
cut. That's true during the good times but during fiscal | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
consolidation, it's avoidable. -- unavoidable. There is a plus and | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
minus for the Conservatives here. 49% of people think the government | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
is on roughly the right course, but only 16% think that their financial | :04:24. | :04:25. | |
circumstances will improve this year. It will be a tough one for the | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
Labour Party to respond to. I agree with Janan. Everyone seems bored | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
with the run-up to the Budget. The front page of the Sunday Times was | :04:37. | :04:42. | |
about fox hunting, the front page of the Sunday Telegraph was about EU | :04:43. | :04:46. | |
renegotiation. Maybe we are saying this because there have not been | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
many leaks. We have got used to them, and most of the George Osborne | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
chat on Twitter was about how long his tie was. Freakishly long. I | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
wouldn't dare to speculate why. Anything we should read into that? I | :05:02. | :05:08. | |
don't know. For a long while there was no recovery, then it was it is a | :05:09. | :05:15. | |
weak recovery, and now, all right, it's strong but not reaching | :05:16. | :05:17. | |
everyone in the country. That is where we are in the debate. That's | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
right, and the Conservative MPs are so anxious and they are making | :05:24. | :05:29. | |
George Osborne announcing the rays in the personal allowance will go | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
up, saying it might go up to 10,750 from next year, and Conservative MPs | :05:35. | :05:42. | |
say that that's OK but we need to think about the middle voters. | :05:43. | :05:45. | |
People are saying the economy is recovering but no one is feeling it | :05:46. | :05:48. | |
in their pocket. These are people snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
Tories are saying these are our people and we have to get to them. | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
He has given the Lib Dems more than they could have hoped for on raising | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
the threshold. Why is he not saying we have done a bit for you, now we | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
have to look after our people and get some of these people out of that | :06:09. | :06:15. | |
40% bracket? Partly because the Lib Dems have asked for it so | :06:16. | :06:17. | |
insistently behind-the-scenes. Somebody from the Treasury this week | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
told me that these debates behind the scenes between the Lib Dems and | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
Tories are incredibly tenacious and get more so every year. The Lib Dems | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
have been insistent about going further on the threshold. The second | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
reason is that the Tories think the issue can work for them in the next | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
election. They can take the credit. If they enthusiastically going to | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
?12,000 and make it a manifesto pledge, they can claim ownership of | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
the policy. The Liberal Democrats want to take it to 12,500, which | :06:48. | :06:52. | |
means you are getting into minimum wage territory. It's incredibly | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
expensive and the Tories are saying that maybe you would be looking at | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
the 40p rate. The Tories have played as well. There have been authorised | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
briefings about the 40p rate, and Cameron and Osborne have said that | :07:07. | :07:08. | |
their priority was helping the lowest paid which is a useful | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
statement to make and it appeals to the UKIP voters who are the | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
blue-collar workers. And we are right, the economy will determine | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
the next election? You assume so. It was ever that is. It didn't in 1992 | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
or 1987. It did in 1992. Ed Miliband's announcement last week | :07:27. | :07:35. | |
that a Labour government would not hold a referendum on Europe unless | :07:36. | :07:38. | |
there's another transfer of powers from Britain to Brussels has | :07:39. | :07:40. | |
certainly clarified matters. UKIP say it just shows the mainstream | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
parties can't be trusted. The Conservatives think it means UKIP | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
voters might now flock back to them as the only realistic chance of | :07:50. | :07:52. | |
securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot reports. | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
When it comes to Europe and Britain's relation to it, the | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
question is whether the answer is answered by a question. To be in or | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
not to be in, that is the question, and our politicians have seemed less | :08:05. | :08:07. | |
interested in question itself but whether they want to let us answer | :08:08. | :08:10. | |
it. Labour clarified their position last week. There will be no transfer | :08:11. | :08:23. | |
of powers without an in out referendum, without a clear choice | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
as to whether Britain will stay in the EU. That seems yes to a | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
referendum, but hold on. I believe it is unlikely that this lock will | :08:33. | :08:35. | |
be used in the next Parliament. So that's a no. The Conservatives say | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
yes to asking, in 2017, if re-elected, but haven't always. In | :08:40. | :08:48. | |
2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by voting for a referendum on EU | :08:49. | :08:51. | |
membership: the largest rebellion against a Tory prime minister over | :08:52. | :08:54. | |
Europe. Prompted by a petition from over 100,000 members of the public. | :08:55. | :09:05. | |
The wrong question at the wrong time said the Foreign Secretary of a | :09:06. | :09:07. | |
coalition Government including selfie-conciously-pro European Lib | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
Dems, who had a referendum pledge in their 2010 manifesto, but only in | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
certain circumstances. So we have the newspapers, and the public | :09:14. | :09:15. | |
meeting leaflets. UKIP have always wanted the question put regardless. | :09:16. | :09:18. | |
But Labour's new position may change things and The Conservatives think | :09:19. | :09:27. | |
so. I think it does, because, you know, we are saying very clearly, | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
like UKIP, we want a referendum, but only a Conservative government can | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
deliver it because most suffer largest would say it is possible in | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
the first past the post system to have a UKIP government -- | :09:44. | :09:52. | |
sophologists. And then it's easy for as to say that if a UKIP vote lets | :09:53. | :09:59. | |
in a Conservative government, then they won't hold a referendum. UKIP | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
seem undaunted by the clarifications of the other parties, campaigning | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
like the rest but with a "tell it how it is, just saying what you're | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
thinking, we aren't like them" attitude. They seem more worried | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
about us and what we want, and I don't see that in the other parties. | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
In parts of the UK, like South Essex, it's a message they think is | :10:23. | :10:29. | |
working. They are taking the voters for granted again and people have | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
had enough. People are angry, they see people saying they will get a | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
vote on the European Union, but then it just comes down the road. They | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
were quick to capitalise on the announcements, saying only the | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
Conservatives will give you say, so does it change things? Not really. | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
We have been talking about a referendum and having a debate on | :10:57. | :10:59. | |
the European Union for years, and the other parties are playing catch | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
up. They have a trust issue. Nobody trusts them on the European Union | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
and that is why people come to us. Who the average UKIP voter is, or | :11:09. | :11:11. | |
how they voted before is complicated, and what dent they | :11:12. | :11:13. | |
might make on Conservative and Labour votes in 2015 is trickier | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
still, but someone's been crunching the numbers anyway. We reckon it is | :11:17. | :11:24. | |
between 25 and 30% of the electorate broadly share the UKIP motivation, | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
so to top out at that level would be difficult. That's an awful lot of | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
voters, but it's not the majority, and this is the reason why the main | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
parties can't afford to just openly appealed to the UKIP electorate too | :11:37. | :11:40. | |
hard because the elections are won and lost amongst the other 70%, the | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other | :11:51. | :11:54. | |
groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election. | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at | :11:58. | :12:00. | |
any support the other parties have previously enjoyed. | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good | :12:07. | :12:23. | |
morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
way between now and the next election, and Conservative party | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
jobs and changes. We had a cast-iron guarantee of a referendum from | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
camera, then he three line whip people to vote against it, and now | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
they are for it. What the Labour Party has done is open up a huge | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
blank to us, and that is what we will go for in the European | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
elections this coming year in May. I think there is a very strong chance | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
that Labour will match the Conservative pledge by the next | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
general election. There may be, but at the moment he has ruled it out, | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
and if he does not change his mind and goes into the election with the | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
policy as it is, the only chance of a referendum is a Tory government. | :13:05. | :13:11. | |
If you think the Tories will form a majority, which I think is unlikely. | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
Remember, two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
anyway. There is still this line of questioning that assumes UKIP voters | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
are middle-class Tories. We have some voters like that, but most of | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
them are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems and a lot of | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
nonvoters. But it come the election you failed to change Mr Miliband's | :13:33. | :13:39. | |
line, I repeat, the only chance of a referendum, if you want a | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
referendum, if that is what matters, and the polls suggest it doesn't | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
matter to that many people, but if that is what matters, the only way | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
you can get one is to vote Conservative. No, because you have a | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
situation in key marginals, especially where all three parties | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
are getting a good share, where we will see, and this depends a lot on | :13:59. | :14:01. | |
the local elections and the European elections, there are target | :14:02. | :14:08. | |
constituencies where UKIP has a reasonably good chance of winning a | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
seat, and that will change the agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a | :14:13. | :14:18. | |
Tory government less likely. Arab voters are not Tory. Only a third of | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are | :14:22. | :14:28. | |
not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than | :14:33. | :14:35. | |
conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
minority Ed Miliband government, it means no referendum. Labour and the | :14:49. | :14:51. | |
Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
elections will likely change the party stands and position on a | :15:01. | :15:03. | |
referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their | :15:17. | :15:25. | |
policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to | :15:26. | :15:32. | |
you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You | :15:33. | :15:39. | |
are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal | :15:40. | :15:43. | |
Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is | :15:44. | :15:50. | |
comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
because the better you do in a general election, the less chance | :16:01. | :16:06. | |
there will be a referendum by 2020. No, look at the numbers. Only a | :16:07. | :16:12. | |
third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
we are the Conservative problem, it suggests we are hurting all of the | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating | :16:46. | :16:52. | |
Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped | :16:53. | :17:00. | |
out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with | :17:06. | :17:12. | |
respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
national television on the alternatives of the European Union | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can | :17:27. | :17:39. | |
be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No, | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the | :17:46. | :17:49. | |
British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
being within the European Union, not being within its rule book, not | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk, I | :18:07. | :18:11. | |
want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone! | :18:18. | :18:25. | |
We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made | :18:36. | :18:42. | |
a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not | :18:43. | :18:50. | |
answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded | :18:51. | :18:54. | |
campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr | :19:12. | :19:17. | |
Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers | :19:18. | :19:27. | |
saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that | :19:28. | :19:34. | |
true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded | :19:41. | :19:46. | |
campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on | :19:51. | :20:00. | |
paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for | :20:06. | :20:12. | |
the first seven years of my job. She is paid now? Until May, then she | :20:13. | :20:19. | |
comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In | :20:20. | :20:26. | |
2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no | :20:27. | :20:32. | |
exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the | :20:33. | :20:36. | |
National party as well as a leader of the group in European | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told | :20:51. | :20:59. | |
others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big | :21:00. | :21:02. | |
job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of | :21:03. | :21:08. | |
very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It | :21:13. | :21:19. | |
is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in | :21:30. | :21:37. | |
Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you | :21:38. | :21:40. | |
would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that. | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial | :22:06. | :22:09. | |
gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC | :22:20. | :22:25. | |
coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed | :22:42. | :22:50. | |
a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over | :22:51. | :22:54. | |
the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use | :22:59. | :23:05. | |
anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his | :23:06. | :23:12. | |
wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't | :23:13. | :23:17. | |
it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks, | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes, | :23:59. | :24:08. | |
and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you | :24:15. | :24:23. | |
consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal. | :24:30. | :24:37. | |
Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails to win an outright | :24:45. | :24:49. | |
majority, will you stand down as UKIP leader? I would think within | :24:50. | :24:54. | |
about 12 hours, yes. I will have failed, I got into politics not | :24:55. | :25:00. | |
because I wanted a career in politics, far from it. I did it | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
because I don't think this European entanglement is right for our | :25:06. | :25:08. | |
country. I think a lot of people have woken up to the idea we have | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
lost control of our borders and now is the moment for UKIP to achieve | :25:14. | :25:20. | |
what it set out to do. Will UKIP continue without you if you stand | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
down? Of course it will. I know that everyone says it is a one-man band | :25:27. | :25:36. | |
but it is far from that. We have had some painful moments, getting rid of | :25:37. | :25:38. | |
old UKIP, new UKIP is more professional, less angry and it is | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
going places. Nigel Farage, thank you for being with us. | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
So, what else should we be looking out for in Wednesday's Budget | :25:49. | :25:50. | |
statement? We've compiled a Sunday Politics guide to the Chancellor's | :25:51. | :25:52. | |
likely announcements. Eyes down everyone, it's time for a | :25:53. | :25:56. | |
bit of budget bingo. Let's see what we will get from the man who lives | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
at legs 11. Despite some good news on the economy, George Osborne says | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
that this will be a Budget of hard truths with more pain ahead in order | :26:04. | :26:06. | |
to get the public finances back under control. But many in the | :26:07. | :26:09. | |
Conservative party, including the former chancellor Norman Lamont, | :26:10. | :26:11. | |
want Mr Osborne to help the middle classes by doing something about the | :26:12. | :26:15. | |
4.4 million people who fall into the 40% bracket. Around one million more | :26:16. | :26:22. | |
people pay tax at that rate compared to 2010 because the higher tax | :26:23. | :26:24. | |
threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has | :26:25. | :26:30. | |
indicated he might tackle the issue in the next Conservative manifesto, | :26:31. | :26:33. | |
but for now he is focused on helping the low paid. It's likely we will | :26:34. | :26:39. | |
see another increase in the amount you can earn before being taxed, | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
perhaps up another ?500 to ?10,500. The Chancellor is going to flesh out | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
the details of a tax break for childcare payments, and there could | :26:49. | :26:51. | |
be cries of 'house' with the promise of more help for the building | :26:52. | :27:08. | |
industry. The Help To Buy scheme will be extended to 2020 and there | :27:09. | :27:11. | |
could be the go-ahead for the first Garden City in 40 years. Finally, | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
bingo regulars could be celebrating a full house with a possible cut in | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
bingo tax. And I've been joined in the studio | :27:18. | :27:19. | |
by the former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
by the former Labour Cabinet minister Hazel Blears, and in | :27:23. | :27:25. | |
Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come | :27:26. | :27:28. | |
to Norman Lamont first, you and another former Tory Chancellor, | :27:29. | :27:34. | |
Nigel Lawson, have called in the fall in the threshold for the rate | :27:35. | :27:45. | |
at which the 40p clicks in. I would have preferred an adjustment in the | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
Budget but I agree with what you are saying, it sounds like the | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
Chancellor will not do that. My main point is that you cannot go on | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
forever and forever increasing the personal allowance and not | :28:00. | :28:03. | |
increasing the 40% tax threshold because you are driving more and | :28:04. | :28:09. | |
more people into that band. It is an expensive policy because in order to | :28:10. | :28:12. | |
keep the number of people not paying tax constant, you have to keep | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
adjusting it each year. When this was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
applied to one in 20 people, the 40% rate, it now applies to one in six | :28:25. | :28:31. | |
people. By next year, there will be 6 million people paying base. Why do | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
you think your Tory colleagues seem happy to go along with the Lib Dems | :28:37. | :28:41. | |
and target whatever money there is for tax cuts rather -- on the lower | :28:42. | :28:56. | |
paid rather than the middle incomes? They are not helping the lowest | :28:57. | :29:02. | |
paid. If you wanted to really help the lowest paid people you would | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
raise the threshold for national insurance contributions, which is | :29:05. | :29:12. | |
around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems stopping any rise in the 40p | :29:13. | :29:20. | |
threshold? We are concentrating on raising the lower threshold because | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
we believe that is the way to help those on lower incomes. Whilst they | :29:27. | :29:33. | |
haven't benefited as much as the lower paid they have participated | :29:34. | :29:36. | |
and I think people understand right now, if you were going to prioritise | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
the high earners, when we are still trying to help those on lower and | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
middle incomes who haven't enjoyed great pay increases but have got the | :29:46. | :29:49. | |
benefit of these tax increases, that is why we would like to do it for | :29:50. | :29:55. | |
the minimum wage level. But the poorest will not benefit at all. The | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
poorest 16% already don't pay tax. Why don't you increase the threshold | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
at which National Insurance starts? You only have two earned ?5,500 | :30:07. | :30:15. | |
before you start to pay it. You've got to remember that the raising of | :30:16. | :30:20. | |
the threshold to ?10,000 or more was something the Tories said we could | :30:21. | :30:24. | |
not afford. Why are you continuing to do it? If you want to help the | :30:25. | :30:32. | |
working poor, the way would be to take the lowest out of national | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
insurance. The view we take is they are benefiting, and have benefited | :30:38. | :30:41. | |
from, the raising of the tax threshold. You now have to earn | :30:42. | :30:47. | |
?10,000, we hope eventually 12,500, and that means only people on very | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
low wages. If you opt out of national insurance, you're saying to | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
people that you make no contribution to the welfare system, so there is a | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
general principle that people should participate and paying, and also | :31:01. | :31:05. | |
claim when they need something out. We thought raising the threshold was | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
simple and effective at a time of economic austerity and the right way | :31:10. | :31:12. | |
to deliver a helpful support to welcoming people. -- working people. | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
With the Labour Party continue to raise the threshold, or do they | :31:19. | :31:22. | |
think there is a case that there are too many people being dragged into | :31:23. | :31:28. | |
the 40p tax bracket? If Norman Lamont thinks this is the right time | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
to benefit people who are reasonably well off rather than those who are | :31:33. | :31:35. | |
struggling to make ends meet, then genuinely, I say it respectfully, I | :31:36. | :31:39. | |
don't think he's living in the world the rest of us are. Most working | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
people have seen their wages effectively reduced by about ?1600 | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
because they have been frozen, so the right thing is to help people on | :31:49. | :31:54. | |
modest incomes. I also understand that if the 40% threshold went up, | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
the people who would benefit the most, as ever, are the people who | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
are really well off, not the people in the middle. The Conservatives | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
have already reduced the 50p tax on people over ?150,000 a year, and we | :32:08. | :32:12. | |
have to concentrate on the people going out to work, doing their best | :32:13. | :32:15. | |
to bring their children up and have a decent life and need a bit of | :32:16. | :32:19. | |
help. I think raising the threshold is a good thing. We would bring back | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
the 10p tax, which we should never have abolished, and do things with | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
regard to childcare. At the moment, childcare costs the average family | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
as much as their mortgage, for goodness sake. We would give 25 | :32:34. | :32:37. | |
hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That | :32:38. | :32:40. | |
would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about | :32:41. | :32:48. | |
nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
you should not take people out of national insurance, but the | :33:05. | :33:07. | |
principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on | :33:08. | :33:13. | |
its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and | :33:22. | :33:24. | |
there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the | :33:31. | :33:36. | |
fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the | :33:37. | :33:39. | |
personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The | :33:40. | :33:42. | |
calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at | :33:43. | :33:48. | |
the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate. | :33:49. | :33:52. | |
It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree | :33:53. | :33:58. | |
with Hazel, if you go to the 40% rate, it's the higher earners who | :33:59. | :34:01. | |
benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if | :34:07. | :34:13. | |
you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don't | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the | :34:18. | :34:23. | |
Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work | :34:24. | :34:26. | |
hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be | :34:27. | :34:31. | |
addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a | :34:32. | :34:37. | |
massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back | :34:38. | :34:40. | |
into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have | :34:41. | :34:43. | |
nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or | :34:44. | :34:47. | |
more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000 | :34:48. | :34:54. | |
full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a | :34:55. | :34:57. | |
million including full-time students. All parties do this. It | :34:58. | :35:03. | |
sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour | :35:04. | :35:06. | |
Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual | :35:07. | :35:10. | |
levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think | :35:16. | :35:19. | |
every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour. | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want | :35:24. | :35:28. | |
to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to | :35:29. | :35:33. | |
make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave | :35:34. | :35:36. | |
reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your | :35:37. | :35:46. | |
spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can | :35:47. | :35:49. | |
make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public | :35:50. | :35:52. | |
finances moving towards balance. We don't think the Labour Party will | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party | :35:58. | :36:00. | |
want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that. | :36:06. | :36:12. | |
It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better | :36:13. | :36:17. | |
doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
about any tax cuts when the deficit is over ?100 billion, and | :36:23. | :36:25. | |
effectively, anything you propose today can only be financed by more | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
borrowing. I totally agree with you. I said that this week. I thought the | :36:30. | :36:35. | |
best thing would have no Budget. The main thing is to get the deficit | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
down. My argument is is that you have an adjustment in tax rates it | :36:40. | :36:42. | |
should be shared between the allowances and the higher rate, but | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
I don't think that the progress on the deficit is something we can give | :36:48. | :36:52. | |
up on. This is still a very long way to go. We're only halfway through. | :36:53. | :36:59. | |
Hazel, does it make sense to borrow for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
this, but I agree with both Norman and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to | :37:04. | :37:10. | |
borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely need to get the deficit down and get | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
finances on a strong footing. But we also have to think about having some | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
spending in the system that in the longer run saves us money. We all | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
know we need to build new homes. I don't think it's necessarily the | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
right priority to give people in London mortgage relief in terms of | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
?600,000. We have to get the balance right. Sometimes it is right to | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
spend to save. I'm afraid we have run out of time. There will be | :37:37. | :37:42. | |
plenty more discussion in the lead up to the Budget on Wednesday. | :37:43. | :37:44. | |
It's just gone 11:35am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, Frances O'Grady, the | :37:54. | :37:54. | |
General Secretary of the TUC, joins Hello and on the Sunday Politics | :37:55. | :38:18. | |
Wales: we'll be looking at welfare reform, asking can culture be used | :38:19. | :38:21. | |
to fight poverty? And with George Osborne's Budget just days away is | :38:22. | :38:24. | |
the Welsh economy starting to bloom? But first, from April seventh, some | :38:25. | :38:27. | |
people on Deeside signing up for job-seeker's allowance won't get it. | :38:28. | :38:30. | |
They'll get something called Universal Credit instead. I went to | :38:31. | :38:33. | |
Shotton in Flintshire to meet the minister overseeing it, Lord Freud. | :38:34. | :38:36. | |
He told me the UK Government is "developing it as we go along". Will | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
that satisfy critics who have attacked the UK government's | :38:41. | :38:47. | |
handling of this reform to welfare? The UK Government has needed its | :38:48. | :38:50. | |
flak jacket for Universal Credit, with rows about delays and millions | :38:51. | :38:58. | |
spent on software that was written off. The principle of a more | :38:59. | :39:01. | |
efficient welfare system has got widespread support, but the process | :39:02. | :39:06. | |
of moving to Universal Credit has proved very difficult for the UK | :39:07. | :39:11. | |
Government. The Minister Lord Freud says the government wants to get it | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
right. From April the 7th, some people walking into this Jobcentre | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
will be the first in Wales to be signed up. At the moment, if you get | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
one of these six benefits or tax credits, your money arrives at | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
different times. Under the new system, it will be merged into a | :39:31. | :39:37. | |
separate sum. It is part of wider changes to welfare that have | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
included cuts to housing benefit which Lord Freud says has saved the | :39:41. | :39:48. | |
taxpayer ?2 billion a year. The tax payer has had to help tide people | :39:49. | :39:52. | |
over with discretionary housing payment. Here in Flintshire, for | :39:53. | :39:59. | |
example, those payments have risen from ?45,000 four years ago to more | :40:00. | :40:07. | |
than ?245,000 in this wine year. It is money from the Department for | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
Work and Pensions, but this year the local council has had to top that up | :40:11. | :40:18. | |
with its own money. The Welsh government has complained about the | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
effect on the economy and on some benefit it pays for, things like | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
free school meals. The big package causes us great concern because | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
there were knock-on effects. If we have to spend more money in one | :40:34. | :40:36. | |
area, we have to take it from somewhere else. We need this clarity | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
and we need it quickly, and we are not getting it. The people who will | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
help claimants adapt to the new system have their own concerns. To | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
administer this process as simply as possible, there will be the need for | :40:52. | :40:58. | |
budgeting advice, access to the Internet, and in reality, some more | :40:59. | :41:05. | |
definition and clarification. What a support will they get? I put all | :41:06. | :41:16. | |
that to Lord Freud, a man who started his working life as a | :41:17. | :41:19. | |
reporter on a newspaper. He advised Tony Blair on welfare reform. Years | :41:20. | :41:28. | |
now a Conservative peer working on the coalition's most important | :41:29. | :41:36. | |
programmes. When Universal Credit is very positive to individuals, it | :41:37. | :41:42. | |
adds ?2 billion to people's pockets. It is much more efficient to | :41:43. | :41:47. | |
administer and we can turn those savings back to individuals who need | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
the money. It is efficient in making sure that the people who need the | :41:51. | :41:55. | |
money are those who are the poorest. In the present system, it is much | :41:56. | :42:01. | |
less clear. Around 200,000 people will benefit from Universal Credit | :42:02. | :42:06. | |
in Wales alone. Are you confident that people will be able to manage | :42:07. | :42:11. | |
this system because there have been examples of case studies where | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
paying benefits to social housing tenants instead of landlords has | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
caused problems? We are building a cooperative system with local | :42:22. | :42:27. | |
authorities so that there is a partnership approach to help people | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
move into independence rather than being trapped in the dependency that | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
we see in the present welfare system. On housing benefits, I know | :42:37. | :42:47. | |
here in Flintshire the discretionary housing payments have gone up to | :42:48. | :42:55. | |
more than ?300,000. Isn't then a fit reform just shifting the burden | :42:56. | :43:02. | |
around the states? -- isn't benefit reform shifting the burden around | :43:03. | :43:09. | |
the state? We will have saved ?2 billion next year so we are getting | :43:10. | :43:17. | |
a grip on expenditure that is out of control, but importantly, we are | :43:18. | :43:21. | |
working collaboratively with local authorities who are the best placed | :43:22. | :43:25. | |
people to take decisions to help those who are more vulnerable than | :43:26. | :43:31. | |
others, and that is as important as Universal Credit itself. It is that | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
cooperation with local authorities that we conduct things. The | :43:37. | :43:43. | |
Chancellor has raised the prospect of more cuts to the welfare budget | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
and welfare spending in the UK. That will put a bigger squeeze on more | :43:50. | :43:56. | |
honourable people, won't it? -- vulnerable. We have to crack down on | :43:57. | :44:02. | |
welfare budget that was out of control. We must do that and we | :44:03. | :44:08. | |
continue to do that but I cannot comment ahead of the Budget. You are | :44:09. | :44:13. | |
not just bearing down on the system, you are bearing down on those who | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
need the money the most, aren't you? We are designing a system that is | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
more efficient than the present system in directing resources to the | :44:23. | :44:25. | |
people that need them the most. That is the reason we can bear down on | :44:26. | :44:32. | |
the system, because we are helping the most honourable -- honourable. | :44:33. | :44:42. | |
You have been working on the welfare system for a long time, did you | :44:43. | :44:46. | |
think it would be so difficult to change the welfare state in this | :44:47. | :44:54. | |
way? So controversial? What is clearly true is that this is a | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
massive cultural transformation, and we are developing it as we go along. | :45:00. | :45:03. | |
The most interesting developments that I had not foreseen when I set | :45:04. | :45:09. | |
out was the importance of creating a relationship with the local | :45:10. | :45:12. | |
authorities so we are able to support people in a more holistic | :45:13. | :45:19. | |
ways, and try and handle all of their problems. I do think it has | :45:20. | :45:25. | |
moved from being just a reform of benefit into being a transformation | :45:26. | :45:28. | |
of the culture of dependency that we have in this country. Making it up | :45:29. | :45:36. | |
as you go along? No, this is a dialogue, a pretty intense dialogue | :45:37. | :45:40. | |
that I have been having with local authorities around the country, and | :45:41. | :45:47. | |
we are listening and responding, and building together a new system which | :45:48. | :45:54. | |
I think will stand written in very good stead in the 21st-century. | :45:55. | :46:01. | |
Thank you. You will have noticed those empty shops on your local High | :46:02. | :46:04. | |
Street in recent years. Well, why don't we fill them with art? A | :46:05. | :46:08. | |
report last week on tackling poverty with culture said disused spaces | :46:09. | :46:15. | |
could become creative hubs. Let's discuss that now with the Minister | :46:16. | :46:18. | |
for Culture and Sport, John Griffiths. Your brief was to find | :46:19. | :46:26. | |
ways that culture can help reduce poverty, what makes you think that | :46:27. | :46:31. | |
is possible? We have made substantial progress in using | :46:32. | :46:36. | |
culture to tackle poverty in recent times. We know that Wales has great | :46:37. | :46:41. | |
strength in culture, but we know that the challenge is to widen | :46:42. | :46:46. | |
participation and involvement in that culture. We have made progress | :46:47. | :46:51. | |
through free entry to art galleries and museums. We have seen lower | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
income groups attending events in greater numbers. That does not make | :46:56. | :47:02. | |
people better off, does it? It is important in terms of quality of | :47:03. | :47:05. | |
life but we know that if you can tackle these issues when young | :47:06. | :47:09. | |
people are going through the school system, so they have a more | :47:10. | :47:13. | |
enriching experience, that builds confidence and esteem, and it means | :47:14. | :47:19. | |
that they achieve better in the subjects they study. This report is | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
full of recommendations on widening access. It suggests that you have | :47:25. | :47:32. | |
failed to change the system that is elitist. I do not think so. It | :47:33. | :47:37. | |
recognises that although we have made progress, there is more we can | :47:38. | :47:41. | |
do. This is why we have commissioned this report, and the challenge for | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
us is to join up effectively within government and join up with major | :47:47. | :47:54. | |
cultural organisations such as arts councils and libraries. We need to | :47:55. | :48:02. | |
all join up around this focus to tackle poverty more effectively and | :48:03. | :48:06. | |
make sure more people in Wales get this very, very important cultural | :48:07. | :48:12. | |
experience. Surely the priority is making people materially better off? | :48:13. | :48:17. | |
This report says that people are in disadvantaged circumstances. Is it a | :48:18. | :48:26. | |
stain on Labour's record? Labour is committed to social justice. We have | :48:27. | :48:31. | |
made a lot of progress. What we will do now... The question is, is it | :48:32. | :48:39. | |
making a difference? What we want to do is bring culture to the table and | :48:40. | :48:45. | |
tackle the challenges of poverty. Of course, we deal with the economic | :48:46. | :48:51. | |
issues as well and there is a policy that does that. There will be a very | :48:52. | :48:58. | |
important action plan with all of the Welsh government involved, | :48:59. | :49:03. | |
including Culture and Sport. I think the report is an important part of | :49:04. | :49:09. | |
addressing that overall picture. Your department's budget is being | :49:10. | :49:16. | |
cut by 5.3%, your revenue budget. That tells you all you need to know | :49:17. | :49:22. | |
about the priority placed on culture in tough times? No, it is a priority | :49:23. | :49:27. | |
for the Welsh government. We want to make sure that the cultural | :49:28. | :49:31. | |
strengths in Wales are used more effectively to look at the issues. | :49:32. | :49:38. | |
What we are doing is far better than England where the cuts to their | :49:39. | :49:41. | |
welfare budgets have been more Draconian. We know we are in | :49:42. | :49:45. | |
difficult times and the challenge is to do more with less. That is | :49:46. | :49:49. | |
possible with new models of delivery, and we are seeing that | :49:50. | :49:55. | |
with our libraries where we have councils bringing one-stop shops | :49:56. | :50:00. | |
together with leisure services. Let me ask you about sport. We have two | :50:01. | :50:09. | |
Premier League clubs in south Wales. Do they have a role to play in | :50:10. | :50:15. | |
tackling this? Absolutely. The government is working with Cardiff | :50:16. | :50:18. | |
City and Swansea City with new programmes of funding. The working | :50:19. | :50:23. | |
with schools to provide quality coaches and making sure we addressed | :50:24. | :50:29. | |
the areas in Wales where social declaration is greatest. John, thank | :50:30. | :50:34. | |
you. We've heard about benefit reform already today. In this | :50:35. | :50:37. | |
morning's sun the Chancellor says he'll use his Budget on Wednesday to | :50:38. | :50:40. | |
tell us more about capping welfare payments. Perhaps more so than with | :50:41. | :50:44. | |
any of his previous Budgets, George Osborne can point to positive signs | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
of economic growth. But opponents say living standards are still | :50:49. | :50:51. | |
falling for some. Bethan Lewis has been looking for green shoots. Is | :50:52. | :51:10. | |
the air, a time for gardeners to prepare the ground and sowed the | :51:11. | :51:18. | |
seeds. -- Spring is in the air. At Westminster, it is a time for the | :51:19. | :51:23. | |
Chancellor's annual update on the country's finances, and for him to | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
set out plans to encourage growth while cutting back on the deficit. | :51:28. | :51:31. | |
The UK Government says it's economic strategy is working but the cuts | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
have two continue for the planned to bear fruit and for the economy to | :51:37. | :51:43. | |
flourish. -- for the plan to bear fruit. We are seeing a -- an economy | :51:44. | :51:53. | |
working. There is a step ahead for the people of this country. There | :51:54. | :51:56. | |
will be changes and we need to look at the way the tax system is | :51:57. | :52:00. | |
becoming oppressive on middle earners. I'm not sure the Chancellor | :52:01. | :52:04. | |
can do anything about that we need to make that those at the lowest end | :52:05. | :52:10. | |
of the pay bracket get the relief they need. Labour says it is pleased | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
to see improvements but it is not all rosy in the garden. We had three | :52:16. | :52:19. | |
years when the economy runs along with no growth. We have seen some | :52:20. | :52:24. | |
growth come back to the economy but the fruits are only being enjoyed by | :52:25. | :52:28. | |
the wealthiest in Britain. They are not being felt here. What we feel is | :52:29. | :52:38. | |
that living standards are on the -- under massive pressure. Wages have | :52:39. | :52:41. | |
stagnated and this is a government that is refusing to face realities | :52:42. | :52:47. | |
of a massive crisis. Abergavenny Garden Centre is a family run | :52:48. | :52:53. | |
business, established back in 1957. It has seen plenty of changes in the | :52:54. | :52:59. | |
economic climate over the years. At the moment, it seems to be on the | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
up, people are coming out and spending money, especially since the | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
nice weather. All our sales are up, compared to last year, but we have | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
to take the weather into factor as well. Hopefully, this is a sign of | :53:13. | :53:20. | |
something good for the future. More consumer confidence is one factor | :53:21. | :53:25. | |
that could boost the economy, so how confident do these customers feel? | :53:26. | :53:30. | |
It feels better and you can see people spending money, and | :53:31. | :53:33. | |
certainly, if you want to get something done in the house, you | :53:34. | :53:40. | |
still have to wait. This is good. There is obviously business about | :53:41. | :53:42. | |
and people feel more positive. The weather helped! We are both | :53:43. | :53:49. | |
pensioners, and our income is going down in real terms all the time. But | :53:50. | :53:55. | |
we have to bear our share of the burden. Personally, I have not | :53:56. | :54:02. | |
noticed much improvement. The cost of food is going up, the cost of | :54:03. | :54:09. | |
transport, fuel, and I really hope the Chancellor does not hammer the | :54:10. | :54:14. | |
motorist again this year. At Westminster, the politician said is | :54:15. | :54:19. | |
more work being done to stop -- more work to be done. The record of | :54:20. | :54:25. | |
investment in the UK economy are among the worst in the whole of the | :54:26. | :54:28. | |
world. That is something the UK Government should be worried about. | :54:29. | :54:33. | |
Unless investment starts picking up, there will be a lopsided recovery | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
and there will be another crash, as bad as 2008. We are starting to see | :54:38. | :54:43. | |
progress in the Welsh economy, and unemployment is coming down. Those | :54:44. | :54:48. | |
are the areas where communities notice, where people are able to get | :54:49. | :54:52. | |
back to work and jobs are being created, businesses are being | :54:53. | :54:58. | |
invested in. Next week budget's statement will possibly say we are | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
long way big economic anything. Last week Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood | :55:04. | :55:06. | |
was challenged on her attack of UKIP. It was designed to put | :55:07. | :55:09. | |
pressure on her Euro-sceptic rivals. But it backfired, thanks to her | :55:10. | :55:13. | |
colleague, Lord Elis-Thomas. He said it was "facile". On Thursday Ms Wood | :55:14. | :55:21. | |
sacked him as her transport spokesperson and as chair of the | :55:22. | :55:23. | |
assembly's cross-party environment committee. Let's see if we can get | :55:24. | :55:27. | |
to the bottom of this row with Plaid Cymru chairman Dafydd Trystan | :55:28. | :55:37. | |
Davies. Welcome to the programme. We were talking about describing UKIP | :55:38. | :55:44. | |
as not Welsh. One of your colleague's comments about Sam | :55:45. | :55:48. | |
Warburton. Is your party out of control? What we had in our positive | :55:49. | :55:57. | |
conference speech from Leanne Wood, was the contrast between Plaid | :55:58. | :56:02. | |
Cymru's vision and the right wing agenda from UKIP, and that is the | :56:03. | :56:06. | |
challenge for people to think about in Wales as we face up to the next | :56:07. | :56:12. | |
European elections. That big choice between Plaid Cymru and UKIP. You | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
had a lot of squabbling that is detracting away from that message. | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
Are all those arguments a coincidence or is there a problem in | :56:24. | :56:27. | |
the party? What we have in Plaid Cymru is a positive message. The | :56:28. | :56:32. | |
message was set out to people about the European election, where we are | :56:33. | :56:37. | |
talking about the 150,000 jobs that are dependent on Wales being | :56:38. | :56:44. | |
positive party in Europe. The -- yes, Plaid Cymru needs to be | :56:45. | :56:51. | |
disciplined in order to present that message to the people, and get that | :56:52. | :56:54. | |
message to every person in Wales that there is a choice between the | :56:55. | :57:00. | |
far right agenda of UKIP and the progressive, positive agenda of | :57:01. | :57:05. | |
Plaid Cymru. UKIP may disagree with you as being described as far right. | :57:06. | :57:08. | |
The discipline you are talking about, as chairman of a cross-party | :57:09. | :57:19. | |
committee, why did Leanne do this? As you are well aware, the | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
appointment of committee chairs is a matter for the party groups. It is | :57:25. | :57:32. | |
entirely appropriate, therefore, that as happened with Nick Ramsay, | :57:33. | :57:37. | |
party leaders exercise this. In each case, party discipline in the | :57:38. | :57:43. | |
national assembly, there is a process, and that process has been | :57:44. | :57:48. | |
followed. If you want to look to ten years hence, and how we develop in | :57:49. | :57:55. | |
developing a sovereign party for Wells... Let's not go down that | :57:56. | :58:04. | |
road! Let's look at Lyn Thomas. He is one of the most experienced | :58:05. | :58:08. | |
lawmakers and the kind of person we want to a cross-party committee, and | :58:09. | :58:15. | |
yet Plaid Cymru uses this appointment as cynical is. He will | :58:16. | :58:25. | |
have a significant contribution to make and he has talks about the | :58:26. | :58:34. | |
contribution of the silk committee. He will put that positive case for | :58:35. | :58:37. | |
developing a national assembly for Wales. Do you think it is fine to | :58:38. | :58:42. | |
use party appointments for chairs in this way? It is a tool of | :58:43. | :58:51. | |
patronage. Committee chairs are chosen by the party leaders and it | :58:52. | :58:56. | |
is appropriate when matters of discipline arise that the party | :58:57. | :59:00. | |
leaders uses every means at his or her disposal. Plaid Cymru are | :59:01. | :59:05. | |
putting forward that positive message to the voters. Will there be | :59:06. | :59:11. | |
any more action against them? I foresee no further action and I am | :59:12. | :59:16. | |
sure he will play a positive role, not only in the European election | :59:17. | :59:21. | |
but also in 2015 and his own re-election in 2016. I have no doubt | :59:22. | :59:28. | |
that he will play a positive and constructive role in fighting his | :59:29. | :59:30. | |
seat and making a broader contribution, I hope. This came | :59:31. | :59:35. | |
about because he disagreed with a description of UKIP in a party press | :59:36. | :59:42. | |
release by Leanne Wood as being "not Welsh" . Was that a mistake? The | :59:43. | :59:50. | |
Welsh national interest is not served by UKIP, and the values we | :59:51. | :59:55. | |
have of tolerance and being open, and welcoming of others, we are a | :59:56. | :00:00. | |
nation of migrants. That is the proud heritage of Wales. But it is | :00:01. | :00:07. | |
not very tolerant to call them not Welsh. UKIP do not reflect those | :00:08. | :00:14. | |
values of tolerance or of support for diversity. It is perfectly right | :00:15. | :00:19. | |
for Leanne Wood to call them out on it. Perfectly right to decide who is | :00:20. | :00:27. | |
not Welsh? What we are talking about are the values of the people of | :00:28. | :00:31. | |
Wales. They are open and tolerant, whether it is opposing same-sex | :00:32. | :00:38. | |
marriage or the casual sexism you get from UKIP. I think it is right. | :00:39. | :00:43. | |
Was it a mistake to phrase it in that way? It is right to challenge | :00:44. | :00:50. | |
UKIP. Thank you very much for joining me on the programme. Thank | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
you for watching and I hope you can do the same next week. And | :00:56. | :00:57. | |
you for watching and I hope you can failure marked success. -- not | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
success. Andrew, back to you. Has George Osborne got a rabbit in | :01:03. | :01:14. | |
his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor find a way to help the squeezed | :01:15. | :01:18. | |
middle? And how do Labour respond? All questions for The Week Ahead. | :01:19. | :01:26. | |
And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to discuss the budget is the general | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
back to the programme. I know the TUC has a submission, but if you | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
could pick one thing that you wanted the Chancellor to do above all, what | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
would it be? We want a budget for working people, which means we have | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
to crack the long-term problem of investment in the British economy. | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
Certainly I would like the Chancellor to merit that title they | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
want of the new workers party, and take action on living standards, but | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
if they're going to do that it's got to be about unlocking investment. In | :02:04. | :02:14. | |
the period where the economy has been flat-lining there has been | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
little business investment, but there are signs towards the end of | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
last year that it is beginning to pick up. But a long way to go. The | :02:21. | :02:27. | |
problem is we have key industries like construction and manufacturing | :02:28. | :02:29. | |
that are still smaller than they were before the recession. The | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
government itself, of course, has slashed its own capital investment | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
budget by half. There is plenty of good and important work that needs | :02:42. | :02:44. | |
to be done from building houses to improving the transport system, to | :02:45. | :02:50. | |
improving our schools. And the government really needs to pick up | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
that shovel and start investing in our economy to get the decent jobs | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
we need, the pay increases we need, and that in itself will help | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
stimulate demand. It was Alistair Darling who cut in 2011, and it's | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
interesting that Ed Balls in his plans for the next parliament would | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
run a current budget surplus by the end of the parliament as opposed to | :03:16. | :03:18. | |
George Osborne who would have an overall budget surplus. That gives | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to do what you talk about, but he is | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
reticent to talk about it. He does not want to say that he has an | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
opportunity to spend on investment because he fears if he says it he | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
will be attacked by the Conservatives for being | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
irresponsible. Why is business doing this? The recession was deeper than | :03:38. | :03:43. | |
any since the war and the recovery was slower than almost any since the | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
war. The lag, the time it takes to get over that is longer than anyone | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
expected. I read the same evidence as you towards the end of last year | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
pointing to money being released, and it depends what it is released | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
on, whether it is capital investment or bringing in people on higher | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
wages. The one surprise in the downturn is how well the employment | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
figures have done, but they have not invested in new capacity and they | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
are sitting on a lot of dosh. I looked at one set of figures that | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
said if you took the biggest company in Britain, they have about 715 | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
billion pounds in corporate treasury -- the biggest companies. I think | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
it's reduced a little but they are sitting on a mountain in dash of | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
skills. Yes, but they're not investing in skills, wages, or | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
sustainable jobs. The new jobs we have seen created since 2010, the | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
vast majority of them have been in low paid industries, and they are | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
often zero hours, or insecure, or part-time. So it's not delivering a | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
recovery for ordinary working people. Government ministers, as you | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
know when you lobby them, they are anxious to make out that they know | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
the job is not done and the recovery has just begun, but the one bit they | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
are privately proud of, although they can't explain it, is how many | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
private-sector jobs have been created. A lot of unions have done | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
sensible deals with employers to protect jobs through this period, | :05:18. | :05:20. | |
but it's not sustainable. The average worker in Britain today is | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
now ?2000 a year worse off in real terms than they were. On a pay | :05:27. | :05:33. | |
against price comparison? It doesn't take into account tax cuts. The | :05:34. | :05:41. | |
raising of the personal allowance is far outweighed by the raising VAT. | :05:42. | :05:48. | |
Does the raising of the threshold which the Lib Dems are proud of and | :05:49. | :05:51. | |
the Tories are trying to trade credit for, does it matter to your | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
members? -- take credit for. It matters that it is eclipsed by the | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
cuts in benefits and know what is conned any more. We're going to hear | :06:03. | :06:05. | |
a lot about the raising of the allowance, but as long as the real | :06:06. | :06:11. | |
value of work, tax credits, things like that, people won't feel it in | :06:12. | :06:14. | |
their pocket, and they will find it harder and harder to look after | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
their family. When you look at the other things that could take over | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
from consumer spending which has driven the recovery, held by house | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
price rising in the south, it is exports and business investment, and | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
you look at the state of the Eurozone and the emerging markets | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
which are now in trouble, and the winter seems to have derailed the US | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
recovery. It won't be exports. Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think | :06:38. | :06:44. | |
that will contribute to growth until 2015 -- OBI. So the figures we | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
should be looking at our business investment. And also the deficit. | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
The deficit is 111 billion, and that is a problem, because we are not at | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
the end of the cutting process, there are huge cuts to be made. I | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
understand we are only a third of the way through. That will | :07:06. | :07:08. | |
definitely affect business confidence. It is clear that the | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
strategy has failed. Borrowing has gone up and it's not delivered | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
improved living standards and better quality jobs, so cutting out of the | :07:16. | :07:22. | |
recession is not going to work. The structural budget deficit was going | :07:23. | :07:25. | |
to be eliminated three weeks today under the original plan. They missed | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
target after target. Every economist has their own definition of that. I | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
think Mark Carney is right when he says that fundamentally the economy | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
is unbalanced and it is not sustainable, growth is not | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
sustainable. But if it clicked on, it would be more balanced. It is not | :07:47. | :07:53. | |
just north and south and manufacturing a way out with | :07:54. | :07:56. | |
services, but it is also between the rich and everybody else. What do you | :07:57. | :08:02. | |
make of the fact that there will effectively be another freezing | :08:03. | :08:04. | |
public sector pay, or at least no more than 1%? Not even that for | :08:05. | :08:12. | |
nurses and health workers. But they will get 3% progression pay. 70% of | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
nurses will not get any pay rise at all. They get no progression pay at | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
all. I think this is smack in the mouth. Smack in the mouth to | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
dedicated health care workers who will feel very, very discontented | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
about the decision. Danny Alexander, I saw him appealing to | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
health workers do not move to strike ballots and said they should talk to | :08:38. | :08:44. | |
their department. But about what? Is that real pay cut has been imposed, | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
what are workers left with? So do you expect as a result of yet more | :08:50. | :08:55. | |
tough controls on public sector pay that unrest is inevitable? I know | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
some unions will be consulting with their members, but ultimately it's | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
always members who decide what to do. It does seem to me insulting not | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
to at least be honest and say that we are cutting real pay of nurses, | :09:10. | :09:18. | |
health care workers, on the back of a ?3 billion reorganisation of the | :09:19. | :09:21. | |
NHS that nobody wanted and nobody voted for. Their long-term changes | :09:22. | :09:29. | |
taking place here that almost talks about -- there are long-term | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
changes. It is how lower percentage wages have become of GDP on how big | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
the percentage of profits is. It seems to me there is a strong case | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
for some kind of realignment there. The biggest event of my life, in | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
this world, is the entry of a couple of billion more people into the | :09:51. | :09:53. | |
labour supply. At the end of the Cold War, India and China plugged | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
into the global economy. If there is a greater supply of that factor of | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
production, logically you conclude that wages will fall or stagnate and | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
that has been the story in this country and America and large parts | :10:07. | :10:09. | |
of Western Europe in the last generation. What is not possible is | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
for governments to do much about it. They can ameliorate it at the | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
margins, but the idea that the government controls living | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
standards, which has become popular over the last six months, and the | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
Labour Party have in establishing that, and I don't think it's true. | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
George Osborne's options are astonishingly limited compared to | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
public expectations. If wages have reached a modern record low as | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
percentage of GDP, who is going to champion the wage earner? We have | :10:39. | :10:44. | |
lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed away, so who is the champion? The | :10:45. | :10:49. | |
trade union movement is the champion of ordinary workers. We need those | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
larger-than-life figures that we will mess. Have you got them yet? We | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
have a generation of workers coming through. One thing about the loss of | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
Bob Crow is that the whole union movement has responded strongly to | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
that, and we want to say that we are strong and united and here to stand | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
up for working people and we will fight as hard as Bob Crow did. | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony Benn, we can be sure they will not | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
come from Eton because they all have jobs in the government. I want to | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
put up on the screen what even Michael Gove was saying about this | :11:26. | :11:27. | |
coterie of Old Etonian 's. He's right, is he not? He's | :11:28. | :11:42. | |
absolutely right. We have the idea of the manifesto being written by | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
five people from Eton and one from Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of | :11:48. | :11:54. | |
social mobility that George Osborne, who had the disadvantage of going to | :11:55. | :11:56. | |
Saint Pauls has made it into that inner circle. Here is the question, | :11:57. | :12:05. | |
what is Michael Gove up to? If you saw the response from George | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
Osborne, there was no slap down, and they know this is an area they are | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
weak on an David Cameron will not comment on it. If this had been a | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
Labour shadow minister making a similarly disloyal statement, they | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
might have been shot at dawn. But there is a real tolerance from | :12:21. | :12:23. | |
Michael Gove to go freelance which comes from George Osborne. It's | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
about highlighting educational reforms that he wants to turn every | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
school in to eat and so it won't happen in the future. But it's also | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
pointing out who did not go to Eton school and who would be the best | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
candidate to replace David Cameron as leader, George Osborne, and who | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
did go to Eton school, Boris Johnson. Michael Gove is on | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
manoeuvres to destroy Boris Johnson's chances of being leader. | :12:47. | :12:53. | |
It's a good job they don't have an election to worry about. Hold on. I | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
think they are out of touch with businesses as well as working | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
people. You ask about who is talking about wage earners. Businesses are. | :13:04. | :13:06. | |
They are worried that unless living standards rise again there will be | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
nobody there to buy anything. We are running out of time, but the TUC, | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
are enthusiastic about HS2? We supported. We think it's the kind of | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
infrastructure project that we need to invest in long-term. He could, if | :13:23. | :13:27. | |
we get it right, rebalance north and south and create good jobs along the | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
way -- it could. Thank you very much tool. I have to say that every week | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
-- thank you very much to you all. That's all for today. I'll be back | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
midday with the Daily Politics. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the | :13:47. | :13:47. | |
Sunday Politics. The UK economy | :13:48. | :14:23. | |
is on the road to recovery. | :14:24. | :14:24. |