15/06/2014 Sunday Politics Wales


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:37.:00:43.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

:00:44.:00:48.

The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

:00:53.:00:55.

It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

:01:11.:01:13.

that? Later in the programme, in his

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even Westminster, we'll be asking Later in the programme, in his

:01:16.:01:28.

In London, why the minority vote one Owen Smith says councils

:01:29.:01:30.

In London, why the minority vote one recent elections Labour, but recent

:01:31.:01:32.

support amongst people is bigger than assumed.

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The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control

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of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including

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Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly

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on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted

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The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that

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Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.

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Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to

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reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw

:02:09.:02:10.

his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered

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the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.

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The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds

:02:21.:02:22.

The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their

:02:23.:02:32.

autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the

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grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.

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All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with

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The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier

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battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no

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While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies

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and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has

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Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.

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Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they

:03:09.:03:18.

controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad

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organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th

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century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --

:03:28.:03:31.

create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it

:03:32.:03:37.

involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and

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Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they

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have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question

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is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely

:03:49.:03:56.

the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of

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the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the

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Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned

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against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have

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so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going

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back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception

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back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is

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ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni

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Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.

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Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map

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to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they

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took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was

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involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?

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We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as

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American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in

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Mosul, and now they have this major trying to consolidate their power in

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Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show

:05:03.:05:06.

they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost

:05:07.:05:11.

forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal

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with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other

:05:16.:05:19.

things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do

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it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will

:05:25.:05:27.

take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task

:05:28.:05:33.

forces, call them what you will, can effectively counter-attacked. But

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that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see

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increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying

:05:44.:05:51.

to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian

:05:52.:05:56.

style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would

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like to have a look at this map, because the Kurds, as I mentioned,

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they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in

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the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim

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West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of

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Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the

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beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we

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have to caveat it in a few ways. Firstly, there are millions of

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people in Iraq, so-called sushi, combined families, who do not fit

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easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees

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under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people

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really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni

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Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a

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lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de

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facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the

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side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni

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Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,

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it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction

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it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on

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the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,

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Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now

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becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I

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was in Baghdad a few months ago, I did actually see Iranians

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revolutionary guards in uniform. They were protecting a senior

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Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they

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are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his

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compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise

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the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not

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allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive

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this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain

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into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy

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to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,

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the US and Russia. This morning he entered

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the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left

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Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011 happened and you have the Arab

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revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and

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Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see

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what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened

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with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to

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say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly

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legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do

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understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will

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affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign

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Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,

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he was chief spokesman for the State Department under

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Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan

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Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,

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we don't intervene in Syria, it's a shambles. What lessons should we

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draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the

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problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably

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have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone

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would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does

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drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what

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has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout

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both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,

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democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been

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missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have

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just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building

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dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the

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ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by

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that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,

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nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the

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White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of

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the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be

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very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to

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act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda

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inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and

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Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual

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terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and

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the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do

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enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil

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War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,

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nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President

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Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out

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of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like

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the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge

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humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million

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Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And

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now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from

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Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international

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community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's

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assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if

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anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to

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assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some

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of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have

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justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the

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terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the

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West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,

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but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the

:13:08.:13:10.

Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?

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In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this

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situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for

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sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that

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the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that

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ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit. We

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are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq

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to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.

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This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the

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Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped

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with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with

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the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that

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straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark

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Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan

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and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure

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why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it

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risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way

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which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim

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bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of

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social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are

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suddenly very, very high indeed. Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines

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were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may

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have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.

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The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor

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partition going on -- des facto. Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit

:15:10.:15:15.

of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a

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way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the

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Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of

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this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,

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reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has

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done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.

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What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics

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let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria

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and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out

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a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.

:16:08.:16:11.

President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There

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was no terrorist. There are now. If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a

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thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the

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West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.

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The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

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You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we

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would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things

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have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq

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completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays

:17:13.:17:14.

together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays

:17:15.:17:16.

together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has

:17:17.:17:22.

changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for

:17:23.:17:27.

the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either

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the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up

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and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be

:17:40.:17:43.

problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If

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we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know

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it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very

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destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even

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the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have

:18:08.:18:12.

to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is

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extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political

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groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the

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rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the

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rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an

:18:38.:18:42.

autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be

:18:43.:18:45.

premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is

:18:46.:18:58.

in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be

:18:59.:19:05.

serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim

:19:06.:19:09.

moderates, to form a more representative government. This is

:19:10.:19:14.

the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to

:19:15.:19:19.

need to be some major western leadership to make some big

:19:20.:19:22.

decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after

:19:23.:19:27.

Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite

:19:28.:19:32.

world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are

:19:33.:19:38.

not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not

:19:39.:19:41.

going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are

:19:42.:19:47.

big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were

:19:48.:19:52.

world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global

:19:53.:19:56.

leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I

:19:57.:20:00.

think we will leave it there, thank you very much.

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The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

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It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.

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So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer

:20:14.:20:15.

But the campaign isn't just getting heated.

:20:16.:20:20.

In places it's also down-right nasty. When

:20:21.:20:22.

Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving

:20:23.:20:24.

the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received

:20:25.:20:26.

Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,

:20:27.:20:34.

called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of

:20:35.:20:37.

For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused

:20:38.:20:41.

Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised

:20:42.:20:44.

Conservative ministers for relying on "threats

:20:45.:20:46.

With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even

:20:47.:20:51.

comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because

:20:52.:20:53.

I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie

:20:54.:21:00.

They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.

:21:01.:21:15.

Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better

:21:16.:21:22.

Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber

:21:23.:21:25.

nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both

:21:26.:21:30.

sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are

:21:31.:21:35.

incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this

:21:36.:21:40.

out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic

:21:41.:21:44.

debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides

:21:45.:21:49.

who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that

:21:50.:21:53.

fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side

:21:54.:21:57.

as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber

:21:58.:22:01.

nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly

:22:02.:22:07.

posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.

:22:08.:22:12.

I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from

:22:13.:22:18.

sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress

:22:19.:22:24.

going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and

:22:25.:22:28.

good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of

:22:29.:22:34.

the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is

:22:35.:22:37.

actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the

:22:38.:22:41.

nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this

:22:42.:22:47.

week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and

:22:48.:22:49.

the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both

:22:50.:22:56.

worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the

:22:57.:23:00.

most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling

:23:01.:23:08.

and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you

:23:09.:23:12.

look at the number of people on social media, there are more from

:23:13.:23:17.

the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,

:23:18.:23:23.

from whatever quarter they come. This seemed to be connected to the

:23:24.:23:30.

office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was

:23:31.:23:34.

an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did

:23:35.:23:39.

not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on

:23:40.:23:48.

the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,

:23:49.:23:53.

but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an

:23:54.:23:58.

IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the

:23:59.:24:03.

population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running

:24:04.:24:06.

an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided

:24:07.:24:14.

voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried

:24:15.:24:21.

about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of

:24:22.:24:27.

all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She

:24:28.:24:30.

then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is

:24:31.:24:38.

like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some

:24:39.:24:44.

of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists

:24:45.:24:47.

culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to

:24:48.:24:53.

our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about

:24:54.:24:56.

her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are

:24:57.:25:01.

obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who

:25:02.:25:05.

were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same

:25:06.:25:10.

sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just

:25:11.:25:17.

part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned

:25:18.:25:22.

the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By

:25:23.:25:28.

common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive

:25:29.:25:30.

campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie, it

:25:31.:25:36.

hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign,

:25:37.:25:42.

compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly

:25:43.:25:47.

elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are

:25:48.:25:51.

less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to

:25:52.:26:00.

elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes

:26:01.:26:04.

Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you

:26:05.:26:13.

running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is

:26:14.:26:18.

even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there

:26:19.:26:23.

will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you

:26:24.:26:28.

so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign. The

:26:29.:26:33.

campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask

:26:34.:26:36.

questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People

:26:37.:26:41.

care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to

:26:42.:26:46.

them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is

:26:47.:26:51.

legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of

:26:52.:26:56.

scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally

:26:57.:27:02.

guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you

:27:03.:27:10.

are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of

:27:11.:27:15.

the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were

:27:16.:27:21.

mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at

:27:22.:27:25.

what they say, they are twisted, perhaps even evil minds. I would not

:27:26.:27:32.

disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number

:27:33.:27:36.

of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what

:27:37.:27:40.

people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting

:27:41.:27:45.

engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,

:27:46.:27:52.

we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the

:27:53.:27:57.

campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision

:27:58.:28:03.

for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both

:28:04.:28:07.

sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best

:28:08.:28:12.

light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not

:28:13.:28:16.

just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots

:28:17.:28:25.

would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that

:28:26.:28:32.

the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.

:28:33.:28:34.

The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can

:28:35.:28:41.

do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are

:28:42.:28:47.

taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I

:28:48.:28:53.

do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people

:28:54.:28:57.

across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we

:28:58.:29:02.

are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that

:29:03.:29:05.

family of nations that is the United Kingdom. At the same time, we have

:29:06.:29:11.

the strange and power over things like education and transport. I

:29:12.:29:18.

understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the

:29:19.:29:21.

tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would

:29:22.:29:26.

you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not

:29:27.:29:33.

watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in

:29:34.:29:38.

this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to

:29:39.:29:42.

keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint

:29:43.:29:46.

do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will

:29:47.:29:54.

annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I was supporting England. I was also

:29:55.:29:55.

supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last

:29:56.:30:01.

night's football match between England and Italy because

:30:02.:30:04.

you wanted to get an early night and England lost

:30:05.:30:07.

despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is

:30:08.:30:11.

in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation

:30:12.:30:14.

about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to

:30:15.:30:16.

tackle some of the big players. Well, this is

:30:17.:30:23.

the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have

:30:24.:30:36.

gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.

:30:37.:30:41.

Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is

:30:42.:30:47.

because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.

:30:48.:30:50.

They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.

:30:51.:30:52.

And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.

:30:53.:30:54.

Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would

:30:55.:31:04.

you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:05.:31:06.

packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:07.:31:06.

Thank you. No album, I'm afraid. collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:07.:31:14.

Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and

:31:15.:31:20.

two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has

:31:21.:31:26.

Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.

:31:27.:31:28.

These Tory ones are proving very popular

:31:29.:31:30.

since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.

:31:31.:31:33.

And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in

:31:34.:31:36.

Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.

:31:37.:31:44.

Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership

:31:45.:31:54.

soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU

:31:55.:31:58.

commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.

:31:59.:31:59.

Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary

:32:00.:32:01.

Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old

:32:02.:32:04.

Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?

:32:05.:32:08.

Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be

:32:09.:32:23.

spending the money on the world's poor and spending it well. Glad to

:32:24.:32:25.

hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour

:32:26.:32:28.

stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any

:32:29.:32:35.

of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect

:32:36.:32:38.

team. There have been grumblings

:32:39.:32:39.

about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking

:32:40.:32:42.

in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up

:32:43.:32:46.

in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -

:32:47.:32:57.

Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not

:32:58.:33:11.

want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody

:33:12.:33:16.

wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the

:33:17.:33:19.

Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a

:33:20.:33:23.

lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge

:33:24.:33:26.

strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in

:33:27.:33:29.

trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get

:33:30.:33:33.

himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has

:33:34.:33:38.

been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy

:33:39.:33:45.

amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for

:33:46.:33:48.

Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.

:33:49.:33:52.

Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,

:33:53.:33:55.

but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.

:33:56.:33:59.

You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed

:34:00.:34:09.

Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of

:34:10.:34:14.

that? Very significant. Happy collecting.

:34:15.:34:17.

These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't

:34:18.:34:20.

Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.

:34:21.:34:30.

I'm joined by three journalists who've been

:34:31.:34:32.

furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly

:34:33.:34:34.

weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,

:34:35.:34:37.

We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on

:34:38.:34:45.

the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately

:34:46.:34:50.

that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So

:34:51.:34:58.

why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for

:34:59.:35:05.

the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa

:35:06.:35:11.

gave a speech to the conference, and people said she was doing it just in

:35:12.:35:14.

case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.

:35:15.:35:19.

I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael

:35:20.:35:23.

Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to

:35:24.:35:26.

protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from

:35:27.:35:34.

Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you

:35:35.:35:37.

are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be

:35:38.:35:39.

involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic

:35:40.:35:51.

disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is

:35:52.:35:55.

their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges

:35:56.:36:00.

the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some

:36:01.:36:02.

pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless

:36:03.:36:07.

leading the most far right wing government we have had since the

:36:08.:36:10.

war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they

:36:11.:36:14.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.

:36:15.:36:17.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:18.:36:21.

charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there

:36:22.:36:24.

aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we

:36:25.:36:29.

assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything

:36:30.:36:33.

that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of

:36:34.:36:38.

cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from

:36:39.:36:43.

your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised

:36:44.:36:49.

view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about

:36:50.:36:54.

randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove

:36:55.:36:59.

as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves. --

:37:00.:37:05.

Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are

:37:06.:37:11.

certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert

:37:12.:37:14.

Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris

:37:15.:37:17.

Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man.

:37:18.:37:22.

Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team

:37:23.:37:26.

were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there

:37:27.:37:29.

and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the

:37:30.:37:35.

village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and

:37:36.:37:41.

you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What

:37:42.:37:49.

did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have

:37:50.:37:52.

words with you during the break. It's just gone 11.35, you're

:37:53.:37:55.

watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:56.:37:57.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll

:37:58.:38:00.

be talking about Ed Miliband's politics Wales, we round of the

:38:01.:38:27.

BBC's measuring revolution week. Wales is hosting a major conference

:38:28.:38:33.

on bovine tuberculosis but is the vaccination programme working?

:38:34.:38:39.

And as we measured revolution, we get Welsh opinions and hear Scottish

:38:40.:38:47.

voices on independence for Scotland. First, the Shadow Welsh Secretary is

:38:48.:38:50.

urging council leaders to take the lead in reforming element. Labour's

:38:51.:38:55.

Owen Smith says they should be trusted to get on with the job of

:38:56.:39:02.

restructuring. He has been speaking ahead of Welsh local government's

:39:03.:39:12.

conference in Llandudno this week. What is the vision for Welsh local

:39:13.:39:17.

government? For ministers in Cardiff Bay it involves fewer councils. The

:39:18.:39:21.

status quo, they say, is not an option.

:39:22.:39:26.

At one end of the argument is Cardiff Council and at the other end

:39:27.:39:30.

is the Vale of Glamorgan. Under proposals put forward by a

:39:31.:39:37.

government commission, these two councils would emerge.

:39:38.:39:39.

Another suggestion is for Kerrigan -- Ceredigion to join up with

:39:40.:39:49.

Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion's leader says there have

:39:50.:39:56.

been no discussions of murdering and there is no money to pay for it.

:39:57.:40:01.

We need to keep our focus firmly on the ball of service delivery, that

:40:02.:40:03.

is what people on the ground want. Local people need local services.

:40:04.:40:08.

Pulling the focus is away from those services will not do anyone any good

:40:09.:40:14.

in this difficult time. Now, it is back in January that the

:40:15.:40:18.

Williams commission recommended some councils should merge as part of a

:40:19.:40:23.

plan to improve public services. It has put forward a new council map

:40:24.:40:29.

with 12 councils. The government says it will give a

:40:30.:40:34.

formal response to the Williams commission report and put its

:40:35.:40:37.

council map before the summer recess. It wanted cross-party

:40:38.:40:44.

agreement. That has not happened and some leaders could take some

:40:45.:40:48.

persuading. Shadow Secretary Owen Smith says councils need to be

:40:49.:40:53.

trusted to drive the process forward.

:40:54.:40:55.

Ultimately this has to be something that is collaborative. It has to be

:40:56.:40:58.

something that is not imposed from above, it has to be driven by local

:40:59.:41:03.

government itself because that is the way in which we will end up with

:41:04.:41:08.

the best fit between local services and local people. I am saying to

:41:09.:41:11.

local government leaders, it has to be driven by local government itself

:41:12.:41:14.

because that is the way in which we will end up with the best fit

:41:15.:41:16.

between local services and local people. I am saying to local

:41:17.:41:18.

government leaders committed up to you. -- it is up to you. I think we

:41:19.:41:27.

should trust them to take it up and rise to the challenge. They need to

:41:28.:41:34.

get on with it. First Minister Carwyn Jones said

:41:35.:41:39.

this week that some councils are the -- incapable of improving education

:41:40.:41:43.

in their every and that shows the need to restructure.

:41:44.:41:46.

The Conservatives say the Welsh government are too focused on line

:41:47.:41:48.

drawn up. What I do not hear from the Wales

:41:49.:41:51.

Labour Party and the Welsh Labour government any idea about what they

:41:52.:41:58.

want to ask local authorities to deliver and what they are prepared

:41:59.:42:00.

to fund local authorities to deliver in the future. All they seem to be

:42:01.:42:05.

fixated on our geographical changes they seem to think will be a

:42:06.:42:09.

panacea. We know they are not, just a change geographically, because we

:42:10.:42:13.

have been there before with the large County Council is that used to

:42:14.:42:17.

exist. I think the First Minister has to show leadership on this issue

:42:18.:42:21.

rather than dithering as he is at the moment, because his local

:42:22.:42:25.

authority leaders have sat on him. Deciding how our councils will be

:42:26.:42:30.

organised in future will take careful consideration, says the

:42:31.:42:33.

Welsh government. Restructuring is on the horizon but it could yet be

:42:34.:42:39.

some distance away. You saw the First Minister speaking

:42:40.:42:42.

to our political editor there. That is part of our measuring devolution

:42:43.:42:48.

week, when we have been taking stock of 15 years of the assembly.

:42:49.:42:52.

Let's pick up on some of the points raised with this the Welsh

:42:53.:42:57.

government's Deputy Minister for tackling poverty. The First Minister

:42:58.:43:03.

was then blaming local councils and accusing them of failure to improve

:43:04.:43:08.

education. Given that during those 15 years of devolution labour has

:43:09.:43:12.

been in charge, is he passing the buck?

:43:13.:43:15.

No, but there is a recognition our councils do not serve all of us as

:43:16.:43:21.

well as they should do. No one suggests the current structural

:43:22.:43:24.

public services is what we should have. The challenge is finding a way

:43:25.:43:30.

forward. We are demonstrated better off now than we were 15 years ago in

:43:31.:43:35.

health and the economy. It was common to have two-year waiting

:43:36.:43:37.

lists in the health service and that is not the case now. Our perspective

:43:38.:43:43.

is that we want to see even more change. If these doctors are wrong,

:43:44.:43:48.

you have had 15 years to put them right.

:43:49.:43:50.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion of your opponents that

:43:51.:43:54.

you are looking for someone else to blame for things that you have

:43:55.:43:59.

failed to put right yourself. No, there is a recognition that

:44:00.:44:03.

where we are is not where we should be in terms of the structures of

:44:04.:44:06.

public services. That is not uncommon, because you will not find

:44:07.:44:09.

a serious voice in other parties that disagrees with that. It is

:44:10.:44:14.

important to recognise that discussions between the Welsh

:44:15.:44:16.

government continue with other parties and other stakeholders,

:44:17.:44:20.

people who lead and manage public services, people who represent those

:44:21.:44:25.

in public services as part of an ongoing conversation about where we

:44:26.:44:27.

go. As the First Minister said, there will be an announcement on a

:44:28.:44:33.

proposed route forward before the recess. This is a difficult and

:44:34.:44:38.

challenging agenda... The First Minister says there are

:44:39.:44:42.

six local education authorities in special measures, three of those are

:44:43.:44:46.

in councils led by the Labour Party. As I say, 15 years - why only now

:44:47.:44:51.

are we having this conversation about structures?

:44:52.:44:54.

This conversation has been around for some time.

:44:55.:44:59.

But you have been reluctant to grasp the nettle?

:45:00.:45:02.

No, it is important to recognise there is not an easy fix. It has

:45:03.:45:07.

been an issue for some time about what is the optimum organisation,

:45:08.:45:10.

and any organisation takes up an opportunity that is there as well. I

:45:11.:45:15.

think this is the right thing to do, the Welsh government has set out

:45:16.:45:20.

a clear agenda for reforming and improving public services. It is

:45:21.:45:25.

about response from all parts of public services. Not just about

:45:26.:45:28.

local government. Crucially, it is about local

:45:29.:45:32.

government leaders, Labour local council leaders signing up to your

:45:33.:45:35.

policy. As the First Minister got a fight on his hands convincing them?

:45:36.:45:41.

-- as the First Minister? We are engaging with leaders across

:45:42.:45:46.

local services. Any proposals for a future map will be dealt with when

:45:47.:45:52.

that statement is made before the end of summer recess, and it is

:45:53.:45:56.

important to see it continue to be engaged with, to improve and reform

:45:57.:46:02.

Welsh public services. Let's look at the health service as

:46:03.:46:05.

part of our series. We have surveyed people and that revealed that fewer

:46:06.:46:12.

than half of the people in Wales realise the Welsh government runs

:46:13.:46:16.

the NHS. With all of the flag you get from the opposition about the

:46:17.:46:21.

handling of the NHS, you must be cock-a-hoop if so few people realise

:46:22.:46:26.

Labour is in charge. I would not say that. If you look

:46:27.:46:30.

across this week of devolution, think about how narrow the margin

:46:31.:46:34.

was to create the assembly. I think it is a remarkable achievement that

:46:35.:46:39.

devolution is so well embedded, but that is not to save the last

:46:40.:46:44.

significant challenges around public perception and engagement. I would

:46:45.:46:47.

like to see a much greater proportion of Welsh adults 14 at the

:46:48.:46:52.

next assembly election, having their say in who could and should run well

:46:53.:46:56.

services and have a significant say on the economy in Wales. I recognise

:46:57.:47:02.

there are political challenges for us as elected representatives and a

:47:03.:47:05.

broader challenge for the media about how the public engage with

:47:06.:47:08.

reporting on wedge politics and how they access different services. That

:47:09.:47:14.

has changed hugely in the last 15 years. -- reporting on Welsh

:47:15.:47:19.

politics. The different from that people get information now, the rise

:47:20.:47:22.

of social media, we are significantly further away from

:47:23.:47:27.

where we were 15 years ago. When you say you are under pressure

:47:28.:47:32.

because of poor standard of K at one Health Board, the complaints of an

:47:33.:47:41.

cloud, people don't like hospital reorganisation, how does labour

:47:42.:47:44.

respond to that? -- the complaints of Clwyd.

:47:45.:48:00.

We want to focus on how rapidly the improvement is and how even and

:48:01.:48:05.

consistent the quality is. About the NHS, it is important to recognise

:48:06.:48:09.

that are things we wanted to see improved, areas of the NHS where we

:48:10.:48:13.

recognise things go wrong. But the overwhelming majority of the time,

:48:14.:48:18.

people have a good service. The Welsh national survey, a significant

:48:19.:48:22.

survey of the public, recognised that the greatest majority of people

:48:23.:48:28.

are satisfied with NHS Wales. Do you think part of the problem is

:48:29.:48:33.

that people are not interested, paying attention to devolved

:48:34.:48:37.

politics, because effectively Wales is a 1-party state and local --

:48:38.:48:42.

Labour keep getting re-elected? Wales is not a 1-party state, we

:48:43.:48:47.

have never had a clear majority in the assembly. It is rather odd to

:48:48.:48:50.

say that because the facts point in a different direction. Labour is

:48:51.:48:54.

currently the biggest party in Wales and I don't want a change in that

:48:55.:48:59.

direction, but this is about public didn't public services and what we

:49:00.:49:04.

do. There are big challenges for all of us engaging interest in how the

:49:05.:49:06.

country is run. We have conducted another poll that

:49:07.:49:10.

shows you will not win a majority in 2016 but you will still be the

:49:11.:49:15.

biggest party, another Labour led government until 2021. Is that

:49:16.:49:20.

really good for democracy? It is good that people make a choice

:49:21.:49:23.

and I want people to vote Labour, obviously. Any poll conducted now

:49:24.:49:27.

for an election in nearly two years time has to be treated with real

:49:28.:49:32.

caution. I want to see more people engaged with politics and what the

:49:33.:49:35.

assembly does for the people of Wales.

:49:36.:49:38.

We're out of time, thank you for joining us.

:49:39.:49:42.

We have had 15 years of devolution and so has Scotland, but the Scots

:49:43.:49:46.

have been on a different journey to us here in Wales.

:49:47.:49:50.

On the 18th of September, Scottish voters will be asked the question,

:49:51.:49:54.

should Scotland be an independent country? Yes or no. As part of our

:49:55.:50:01.

measuring devolution week we have canvassed Welsh voters aren't what

:50:02.:50:05.

they think the impact of a yes vote could be. We asked, if Scotland

:50:06.:50:09.

decides to become independent and leave the UK, which one of the

:50:10.:50:12.

following statements do you most agree with?

:50:13.:50:16.

61% said Scottish independence should not make any difference to

:50:17.:50:20.

how we govern ourselves in Wales. 17% said Scottish independence

:50:21.:50:25.

should lead to more powers for the Welsh assembly. 14% said Scottish

:50:26.:50:30.

independence should lead to the Welsh people voting for

:50:31.:50:33.

independence. I think a lot of people find it

:50:34.:50:37.

difficult to make the leap of the imagination to understand what I yes

:50:38.:50:42.

vote in Scotland would mean and what its potential implications for Wales

:50:43.:50:46.

might be. At the moment the referendum still more than three

:50:47.:50:49.

months away, it is still looking like a no vote is the more likely

:50:50.:50:55.

outcome. If it did happen, it might well start to change the way people

:50:56.:51:00.

in Wales think about things. Perhaps the poll also suggests that for many

:51:01.:51:05.

people in Wales what is important is not so much of the UK as a whole but

:51:06.:51:10.

the union between England and Wales, that is what matters to them in

:51:11.:51:14.

terms of how Wales is governed. But what is the view from Scotland?

:51:15.:51:20.

I have been speaking to two members of the Scottish Parliament,

:51:21.:51:22.

conservative Liz Smith, who wants Scotland to stay in the union, and

:51:23.:51:29.

the greens' Patrick Harvie, who is campaigning for an independent

:51:30.:51:30.

Scotland. If you want the kind of

:51:31.:51:34.

transformation I think is necessary for society, and Liz will disagree

:51:35.:51:38.

with that on a point of principle at a conservative, but if you want the

:51:39.:51:41.

kind of transformation Queen's and many others in the radical part of

:51:42.:51:46.

politics think is necessary, I do not see that happening from the

:51:47.:51:50.

Westminster culture. I don't see the opportunity to create a space for

:51:51.:51:55.

change with a vote for the no camp. I guess vote could not only change

:51:56.:52:00.

that in Scotland it could stimulate a change in the UK. Asking the

:52:01.:52:05.

question, what is Westminster doing? What is it even for?

:52:06.:52:08.

Some people say they are worried I yes vote may be a gamble, but there

:52:09.:52:12.

are a lot of uncertainties with a no vote, as well, because it is by no

:52:13.:52:17.

means clear what will happen to ten one if people reject independence.

:52:18.:52:21.

There are far fewer uncertainties with the no vote than there would be

:52:22.:52:25.

with a yes vote. The future is never absolutely clear, but that is not

:52:26.:52:29.

the point. The point is whether there is greater security as part of

:52:30.:52:33.

the UK is or as an independent country. That is the decision people

:52:34.:52:38.

in Scotland has to make. We are absolutely clear, and I think the

:52:39.:52:41.

vast majority of people in Scotland are clear, if you believe the

:52:42.:52:46.

opinion polls, that we are better as the UK. We made that decision not

:52:47.:52:51.

just because of what is better for Scotland but because of what is

:52:52.:52:54.

better for the rest of the UK, including Wells country.

:52:55.:52:57.

One of the certainties of the no vote seems to be that the Barnett

:52:58.:53:03.

formula will stay. There are plenty of people in Wales that think they

:53:04.:53:06.

are underfunded by the Barnett formula.

:53:07.:53:11.

Well, the Barnett formula is crucial to protecting those areas of the UK

:53:12.:53:17.

that have not had the same development of economic growth.

:53:18.:53:20.

There will always be a need for some form of Barnett formula to help

:53:21.:53:24.

those areas that cannot survive in the way that richer parts of the UK

:53:25.:53:29.

can do. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

:53:30.:53:33.

I don't know what your feelings on that are, Patrick Harvey.

:53:34.:53:38.

Is reform of the Barnett formula likely to happen if there is a no

:53:39.:53:40.

vote? I can barely help laughing when I

:53:41.:53:44.

hear the argument, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Yes it is!

:53:45.:53:49.

I thought you did well out of the Barnett formula in Scotland.

:53:50.:53:52.

I'm not just talking about the Barnett formula but the

:53:53.:53:54.

constitutional settlement we have at the moment. The UK is failing to

:53:55.:54:02.

achieve a more equal, more sustainable society. We need

:54:03.:54:05.

investment, not austerity, if we are going to see the kind of positive

:54:06.:54:11.

future all of our nations and regions need. Liz Smith.

:54:12.:54:14.

The Conservatives have offered full income tax powers to the Scottish

:54:15.:54:19.

Parliament if there is a no vote. You not worried about tax

:54:20.:54:22.

competition between the different parts of the UK, that Scotland could

:54:23.:54:25.

become a tax haven damaging the economy of the rest of Britain?

:54:26.:54:30.

What we have been very worried about is that this Parliament, if it does

:54:31.:54:35.

not have the accountability and responsibility for a sufficient

:54:36.:54:38.

level of raising its own money and spending it, this decision on tax is

:54:39.:54:43.

based on good quality conservative values about ensuring you have

:54:44.:54:47.

responsibility and accountability. When Patrick Harvey, whose

:54:48.:54:52.

opposition I admire in many ways, we are not in any way politically close

:54:53.:54:56.

but I admire the work that he does, but he is completely wrong when he

:54:57.:55:00.

talks about a Scandinavian model because it is a very high tax model.

:55:01.:55:04.

I don't think Scotland is in anyway wanting to have that and I don't the

:55:05.:55:09.

rest of the UK -- the rest of the UK wants a high tax platform because

:55:10.:55:13.

that would be a disaster. It has not proved a disaster in

:55:14.:55:16.

those Scandinavian countries, either for business or the social and

:55:17.:55:24.

environmental issues they share. Most are concerned with skills,

:55:25.:55:27.

infrastructure, the decency of a society that allows them to prosper

:55:28.:55:31.

rather than a wee bit less on the marginal tax rates.

:55:32.:55:36.

But if you are wanting to deliver a whole lot of policies on social

:55:37.:55:40.

equality, you have, by definition, to find far more money than is

:55:41.:55:44.

currently available if you were to pursue a yes vote. That is not going

:55:45.:55:47.

to happen. So we may have to close some of the

:55:48.:55:51.

tax loopholes that you guys allowed to exist at a UK level. Billions of

:55:52.:55:55.

pounds siphoned off to tax havens. You will have to put up tax or cut

:55:56.:55:58.

expenditure. I can see you both have a lot to

:55:59.:56:02.

debate and just a little under 100 days to do it, but we are out of

:56:03.:56:08.

time. Thank you for joining me. In north Pembrokeshire, bait is

:56:09.:56:12.

being laid for badgers, they are being aged and injected with TB

:56:13.:56:16.

vaccine to start than spreading the disease to cattle.

:56:17.:56:19.

Remember, the previous Wells government policy was to cull them

:56:20.:56:28.

but is vaccination working? -- the previous Welsh government

:56:29.:56:32.

policy. This has been described as the

:56:33.:56:36.

Olympics of TB control. In March 2012, you said that, we do

:56:37.:56:42.

not know whether vaccination will provide us with a way to control TB

:56:43.:56:46.

in wildlife, but we will have to try it. Two years later, do you know now

:56:47.:56:58.

whether it is working? It is more comforted than just

:56:59.:57:01.

looking at the wildlife element but we do know that badgers are infected

:57:02.:57:06.

by each other in parts of Wales. The programme is for five years, we

:57:07.:57:10.

have completed two, and we are into your three, saw the results are by

:57:11.:57:15.

no means available yet. -- yeah three.

:57:16.:57:19.

We will have to wait five years and the completion of the programme to

:57:20.:57:24.

know whether it has worked or not? That element of the programme, yes,

:57:25.:57:29.

but other measures, regarding movement restrictions, etc, are also

:57:30.:57:34.

in place, not just the Northamptonshire but across Wales.

:57:35.:57:38.

Are you slaughtering fewer cattle in North temperature?

:57:39.:57:42.

There has been a reduction in TB across the whole of Wales in the

:57:43.:57:45.

last 12 months compared to the previous 12. The reduction in

:57:46.:57:49.

temperature is in line with the national reduction. Now we have no

:57:50.:57:54.

active -- evidence the vaccination programme in badgers is delivering

:57:55.:57:56.

an additional benefit and we would not to see any evidence -- not

:57:57.:58:02.

expect to see any evidence at this stage.

:58:03.:58:06.

It will cost around four and a half million pounds over five years.

:58:07.:58:09.

It seems a lot of money for the government to spend on something

:58:10.:58:15.

when you don't know whether it is working.

:58:16.:58:17.

Is the Welsh government spending ?4.5 million on anything else it

:58:18.:58:23.

does not know it works? The TV programme cost ?20 million

:58:24.:58:27.

last year. The bulk of that was on cattle testing, bio-security

:58:28.:58:30.

measures and compensation for farmers, and a small sub -- bore

:58:31.:58:35.

portion of that was spent on vaccinating badgers.

:58:36.:58:37.

This conference is held every five or six years, the last one was in

:58:38.:58:42.

New Zealand, and in New Zealand they are culling wildlife, possums, not

:58:43.:58:48.

badgers. When representatives of New Zealand come to Cardiff this week

:58:49.:58:51.

will you tell them they have got it wrong and they should be

:58:52.:58:53.

vaccinating? Certainly not, they have a different

:58:54.:58:57.

challenge with possums, that are causing damage also to crops and

:58:58.:59:03.

trees. And they are not native to New Zealand, so it is a different

:59:04.:59:07.

approach and they are killing possums. They are vaccinating them

:59:08.:59:11.

in some areas and also, importantly, testing cattle and removing infected

:59:12.:59:15.

cattle. You always have to have the balance between all the different

:59:16.:59:19.

elements of the programme, making sure you are tackling all sources of

:59:20.:59:21.

infection. So when supporters of the cult

:59:22.:59:27.

pointed to New Zealand and ask why we cannot do that in Wales, what is

:59:28.:59:30.

the answer? We have to stop wildlife and cattle

:59:31.:59:35.

infecting each other. They have a problem in North America with white

:59:36.:59:39.

tailed deer causing an infection and cattle. In Spain it is wild boar,

:59:40.:59:44.

New Zealand at its possums, and here in Wales we have problems with

:59:45.:59:51.

badgers. There are different approaches to stopping them

:59:52.:59:53.

infecting each other. Have we ruled out the idea of a

:59:54.:59:59.

coal? Will it ever be revisited in Wales?

:00:00.:00:05.

We have to strike the balance between protecting the cattle and

:00:06.:00:09.

making sure the badgers are not infecting the couple, one approach

:00:10.:00:12.

is vaccination and we're looking at that at the moment.

:00:13.:00:14.

Is this conference a big deal for you and Wales?

:00:15.:00:20.

It is a massive deal, I am surprised -- so proud the conference is being

:00:21.:00:23.

held there. We will showcase the work we are doing on TB eradication

:00:24.:00:35.

unit Wales. -- here in Wales. This is a long-term programme, it can

:00:36.:00:40.

take a long time, 22 years in Australia to eradicate TB. We have

:00:41.:00:44.

to take on board all developments as we proceed because what we want is a

:00:45.:00:51.

TB free whales. -- Wales. Thank you for joining us. That is it

:00:52.:00:55.

for this week, I hope you can join us next week when we will be back on

:00:56.:00:59.

BBC1 Wales at the same time. All of the latest politics on Wales

:01:00.:01:03.

come on BBC1 Wales, There are big changes afoot

:01:04.:01:12.

in the EU following last month's European elections,

:01:13.:01:15.

not least who'll get the top job But

:01:16.:01:17.

behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as

:01:18.:01:21.

they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been

:01:22.:01:24.

struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain

:01:25.:01:29.

how it all works. If you want your party to be a big

:01:30.:01:41.

cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.

:01:42.:01:45.

By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees

:01:46.:01:49.

and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules

:01:50.:01:56.

are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least

:01:57.:02:01.

seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a

:02:02.:02:04.

problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different

:02:05.:02:09.

nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not

:02:10.:02:13.

helped by the Tories stealing -- stealing his former Danish and

:02:14.:02:18.

Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a

:02:19.:02:26.

new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and

:02:27.:02:29.

justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed

:02:30.:02:35.

political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe

:02:36.:02:43.

Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more

:02:44.:02:46.

international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his

:02:47.:02:50.

hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right

:02:51.:02:54.

Congress. They both make their decisions next week.

:02:55.:03:01.

What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need

:03:02.:03:06.

seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are

:03:07.:03:11.

wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite

:03:12.:03:15.

buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week

:03:16.:03:19.

and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was

:03:20.:03:24.

saying, the problem UKIP have had is that the Conservatives have nicked

:03:25.:03:33.

two of the parties. That is why they have been struggling, but they say

:03:34.:03:35.

they are confident they will do it. Meanwhile, the Tories new best

:03:36.:03:40.

friends are the German Eurosceptic party, which has put Mrs Merkel's

:03:41.:03:46.

nose out of joint, but we don't quite know whether she really cares

:03:47.:03:52.

or not. I think Cameron has played his hand badly since he committed to

:03:53.:03:58.

pulling out of the EBP. And he should be in there with Angela

:03:59.:04:05.

Merkel and if he needs to make a major renegotiation, he needs to

:04:06.:04:11.

have the Germans onside. Instead there is a breakaway party and its

:04:12.:04:16.

like supporting UKIP. His party are supporting her worst enemy. It

:04:17.:04:22.

certainly causing him a lot of problems, and undermines his

:04:23.:04:24.

negotiating position, but isn't there an honesty that the

:04:25.:04:31.

centre-right group is explicitly Federalist, and the Tories are

:04:32.:04:35.

anything but, so they came out, and Labour are in the Socialist group,

:04:36.:04:39.

which is explicitly Federalist, and they are not Federalist either. If

:04:40.:04:44.

you want support and influence in Europe, you have to trade, and he

:04:45.:04:48.

hasn't done this well. The whole business with who will be the next

:04:49.:04:54.

president, he needs Angela Merkel's support. Without that, it won't

:04:55.:04:59.

happen. He should have been trading behind-the-scenes, but he has

:05:00.:05:06.

exposed himself in public, and if he doesn't win it looks uncertain, and

:05:07.:05:09.

he will be in a position where he has to go back to his own party and

:05:10.:05:12.

say they are not getting anywhere. That is dangerous and takes us

:05:13.:05:16.

closer to the Exeter, which I don't think would want. The danger for Mr

:05:17.:05:23.

Cameron is if it is the president of the commission, he will save you

:05:24.:05:28.

cannot stop a federalist becoming head of the European commission,

:05:29.:05:31.

what chance do you have of repatriating lots of powers back to

:05:32.:05:38.

London. There are lots of Tory MPs dying to make the argument. My hunch

:05:39.:05:42.

is that he won't make it. There are too many countries opposed to his

:05:43.:05:46.

presidency and even the country notionally in favour of it, Germany,

:05:47.:05:52.

is failing in youth -- enthusiasm. Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give

:05:53.:05:57.

in to the Brits this. Her own side once it as well, though some reason

:05:58.:06:04.

the German media says it. When she tried to reach out and said to look

:06:05.:06:08.

at the other candidates, she got such abuse on the right wing press

:06:09.:06:13.

from her own country and party she had to retreat. Janan is right that

:06:14.:06:23.

there is opposition to Juncker, but as long as Cameron turns it into an

:06:24.:06:29.

argument about Britain and Europe, he will strengthen the hand of

:06:30.:06:35.

Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks Juncker is inappropriate. She did

:06:36.:06:40.

not like the process, which was a power grab by the European

:06:41.:06:43.

Parliament, but when David Cameron went to the council and said that if

:06:44.:06:47.

I don't get my way, we could leave the EU, that led to the backlash,

:06:48.:06:54.

most significantly from the SPD in Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only

:06:55.:06:58.

David Cameron had made the argument that Juncker is bad for Europe, then

:06:59.:07:01.

he would have found his natural allies would have felt more

:07:02.:07:06.

comfortable following behind. Enough Europe. I want to show you a

:07:07.:07:14.

picture. See what you think of this. When I saw that picture, I thought

:07:15.:07:18.

it was so ludicrous that it had to have been photo shop. Discuss. He is

:07:19.:07:25.

holding it with a certain disdain, looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous

:07:26.:07:30.

picture for Ed Miliband. His strength is authenticity, sincerity

:07:31.:07:35.

and cleverness. And he blows all of that. He was the one who took on

:07:36.:07:38.

Murdoch, very bravely and dangerously, and one, really. Now

:07:39.:07:43.

there he is supporting Murdoch's son. It's a big mistake, not just in

:07:44.:07:47.

Liverpool, where obviously they are particularly incensed. And then he

:07:48.:07:55.

apologises. Sort of apologises and understands why Liverpool feels

:07:56.:07:59.

upset. But it is a fundamental error and I hope he learns from this, that

:08:00.:08:03.

he must absolutely stay true to himself. That's all he's got going

:08:04.:08:08.

for him. Who do we blame? His advisers or himself? In the end,

:08:09.:08:16.

himself. Nobody forced him to do it. On this one, he called it wrong.

:08:17.:08:23.

It's a sign of the rather the bridal state of the Labour Party is that

:08:24.:08:30.

his candidates were vocal in attacking him doing this. It's a

:08:31.:08:39.

sign of how readable Ed Miliband is at Parliamentary level. I don't

:08:40.:08:41.

think you should have apologised. The mistake he made was associating

:08:42.:08:50.

himself with that newspaper. The mistake was the prior three years

:08:51.:08:55.

when he went too far as portraying the Murdoch empire beyond the pale.

:08:56.:09:00.

He made a case against phone hacking and offences in that regard without

:09:01.:09:05.

going as far as he did with the rhetoric. To do that, and then pose

:09:06.:09:09.

with the Sun newspaper, the juxtaposition is what did for him,

:09:10.:09:13.

not the mere fact of posing with it. Maybe he did not know what he was

:09:14.:09:18.

doing because we were told he doesn't read the British

:09:19.:09:21.

newspapers. It was football, and he has posed with the Sun newspaper

:09:22.:09:26.

before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg posed as well. But with the Sun

:09:27.:09:30.

newspaper and football, you tread carefully. That was the mistake. You

:09:31.:09:34.

get the impression from the picture that he looks so uncomfortable that

:09:35.:09:38.

you wonder whether there was a full process of consultation that went on

:09:39.:09:42.

within his media operation, within his political operation. Was he

:09:43.:09:45.

fully aware of what would happen question what he looks so incredibly

:09:46.:09:49.

uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, leaders have to take

:09:50.:09:54.

responsibility. It is cultural as well. That picture says, I am down

:09:55.:09:58.

there with the football blokes and you think, you are not. That is not

:09:59.:10:03.

what people will vote for. Be yourself and don't pretend to be

:10:04.:10:05.

something else because it never works. But the polls suggest that

:10:06.:10:10.

the British voters don't yet see Ed Miliband as prime ministerial. The

:10:11.:10:16.

worst thing you can then do is get involved in stunts that are more

:10:17.:10:19.

likely to reinforce that idea than counter it. There was a precedent

:10:20.:10:23.

for it in the last parliament which was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign

:10:24.:10:30.

a populist touch. He did it by telling the contents of his iPod.

:10:31.:10:35.

The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred because he was trying too hard. Not

:10:36.:10:40.

uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all the other leaders have done it. At

:10:41.:10:44.

the moment he more vulnerable. Yes, and he is less popular than his

:10:45.:10:49.

party. Labour has quite a popular brand, in a resilient way, in a way

:10:50.:10:53.

they don't with the Tories, yet their leader is a personal problem.

:10:54.:10:57.

The pressure is on him to do stunts like this. Will there be a shadow

:10:58.:11:03.

cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to get the cabinet reshuffle out of the

:11:04.:11:06.

way first, and that might come next week, maybe by the time of the

:11:07.:11:10.

summer recess, but the first thing that the prime Minister do is work

:11:11.:11:13.

out who is the UK candidate for the European Commissioner. Is it not the

:11:14.:11:20.

case probably that Ed Balls is becoming semi-detached from the Ed

:11:21.:11:25.

Miliband project? I don't think entirely. Nothing gets agreed

:11:26.:11:28.

without both of the end are green. Ed Balls is controversial. He has

:11:29.:11:31.

great pluses and minuses and is a big figure. Labour doesn't have that

:11:32.:11:36.

many big figures. It's quite hard to think who would be a heavy hitter as

:11:37.:11:41.

a possible Chancellor. He is a convincing chancellor to the future,

:11:42.:11:46.

Love him. He has the heft -- love him or hate him. Any possibility Ed

:11:47.:11:51.

Balls could be moved as shadow chancellor? The timing is convenient

:11:52.:11:56.

because the Scottish referendum ends in the autumn and Alistair Darling

:11:57.:11:59.

becomes a free man, win or lose. I don't think Ed Balls will be removed

:12:00.:12:04.

because moving him would be an admission that everything the Labour

:12:05.:12:06.

Party said about the economy to the preceding four years has been a

:12:07.:12:10.

mistake. And you can't do that nine months before a general election.

:12:11.:12:15.

You invite ridicule. But relations between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are

:12:16.:12:19.

not great at the moment. The Ed Miliband team are very, very

:12:20.:12:22.

suspicious of this new love in between Ed Balls and Peter

:12:23.:12:26.

Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say that he spotted the Ed Balls talents

:12:27.:12:30.

in the original place and appointed him to the Gordon Brown team after

:12:31.:12:36.

the disaster of 1992. But things obviously went awry, and now Ed

:12:37.:12:40.

Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue Rappaport, and that is with enormous

:12:41.:12:45.

suspicion -- they have a new Rappaport. With good reason because

:12:46.:12:50.

it's about policy. It's about the attitude towards business. Should

:12:51.:12:52.

they be out there saying they will get the tax dodgers, Starbucks,

:12:53.:12:58.

Vodafone, are we going to take on business in a big way? In a way that

:12:59.:13:03.

Ed Miliband has quite bravely said. On the other hand, Ed Balls and

:13:04.:13:06.

Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on, we only won in 1997 by being

:13:07.:13:10.

business friendly. Sorry to rush you. We are running out of time.

:13:11.:13:13.

The Daily Politics will be back every day this week at midday,

:13:14.:13:17.

and I'll be back here next Sunday when I'll be joined

:13:18.:13:19.

by the shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember

:13:20.:13:22.

if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:23.:13:53.

Magnificent. The power base of medieval England.

:13:54.:13:59.

Charles' ceiling was a piece of breathtaking arrogance.

:14:00.:14:05.

You get a sense of the people who made the palaces.

:14:06.:14:13.

as I unlock the secrets of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

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