Browse content similar to 14/02/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics. | :00:00. | :00:41. | |
David Cameron says a manifesto shouldn't be a "wish list, | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
He says he's been ticking off the commitments his manifesto made, | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Well, today we launch our own Manifesto Tracker and we'll be | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
talking to the minister responsible for implementing it. | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
The Government wants to crack down on the gender pay gap. | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
But is it really as bad as everyone seems to make out? | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
We'll be talking to TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady. | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
And we'll be asking who's wooing who | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
in the putative Tory leadership contest? | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
Later in the programme: The head of the British Army tells us there's | :01:15. | :01:22. | |
been a culture of change in the forces, following a series | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
And with me, as always, a match made in heaven. | :01:26. | :01:40. | |
Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Tim Shipman, | :01:41. | :01:42. | |
who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:43. | :01:44. | |
First, this morning let's turn to the situation in Syria. | :01:45. | :01:51. | |
A nationwide "cessation of hostilities" is due | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
But, despite that agreement, the prospects for peace | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
The truce does not apply to the battle against what Russia | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
calls terrorist targets and means it will continue its heavy bombing | :02:03. | :02:04. | |
Meanwhile, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Northern Syria | :02:05. | :02:11. | |
and the Turkish Foreign Minister has said his country is pondering | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
This morning, the Foreign Secretary said Russia had to begin complying | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
The situation in Aleppo is extremely worrying, | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
the Russians are using carpet-bombing | :02:25. | :02:26. | |
tactics, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
Yes, we demand that the Russians comply with their obligations under | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
international law and their obligations under the UN | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
Security Council resolutions that they have signed up to. | :02:40. | :02:48. | |
Nick, you get a feeling that given this deal was signed in Munich, it | :02:49. | :02:56. | |
it is living up to deal is signed in Munich reputations. When we hear the | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
Foreign Secretary saying we demand Russian do something when they are | :03:02. | :03:04. | |
creating facts on the ground and we are not, that will have a hollow | :03:05. | :03:11. | |
ring. Russia is now. President's Asad air force. They have ensured | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
that President Assad cannot lose this war but he cannot also win it. | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
They have the air force but no forces on the ground. Now that | :03:21. | :03:26. | |
President Assad cannot lose this war has changed the dynamics. We can | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
whistle in the wind as much as we like but Russia is the reality and | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
power. Sir Roderick Lyne, the former UK ambassador to Moscow was on radio | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
five this morning and he said we should not get too carried away with | :03:41. | :03:44. | |
quite how powerful Russia is, they don't have troops on the ground, | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
they have a faltering economy and they are nervous about going into | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
far because of the disaster of Afghanistan 35 years ago. They do | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
have some troops on the ground, they have proxy forces on the ground from | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
Hezbollah and the uranium National Guard. Although they can't take back | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
the whole of Syria, they will take back enough of it -- Iranians | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
National Guard. Making success in the south, the border with Turkey, | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
controlling the Mediterranean coastline. When they have done that, | :04:16. | :04:19. | |
they might be serious about peace talks. Then they are stuck with it. | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
It is not clear if Vladimir Putin thinks beyond tomorrow. It is not | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
clear what the long-term strategy could do. It could be like the | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
Russian invasion of Afghanistan, an absolute disaster. President Assad | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
is saying that they intend to take over the whole of the country, | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
entirely unrealistic. There will be some sort of partition. What is | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
happening is very frightening in the sense that everybody is fighting a | :04:47. | :04:48. | |
proxy war, the Iranians and Saudis. The one thing that people keep | :04:49. | :04:58. | |
saying is Barack Obama was so weak that it is quite unclear what he | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
could have done. Perhaps he could have given Syria's weapons to the | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
more moderate rebels. Hillary Clinton wanted him to do that in | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
July 2012. She put a plan together along with the general and he turned | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
it down. What would have happened is that they would be shooting down | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
Russian planes with American weapons. Or Russia might not have | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
gone to war. We don't know. Everything has a dynamic to it. This | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
dynamic is leaving the west pretty much as onlookers. It is clear that | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
at least in the short-term, Mr Putin will get back enough ground for | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
Assad to then say we have got rid of a lot of these "Terrorists" because | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
they are not Islamic state. It is now asked versus Islamic State. | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
Exactly, we sound like the mouse that squeaked this morning. I | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
disagree with Polly. One of the great powers in the world has now | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
got very involved in a situation and the other hasn't. President Obama | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
had options. He did not explore them to any sort of extent that it put | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
off the Russians. Britain is left on the sidelines, waiting for a new US | :06:07. | :06:16. | |
president, to get engaged in this issue and do something proactive. | :06:17. | :06:18. | |
What could have been done that would have been any use at all? Either | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
useless or worse than useless, stuck us in there... He did say he had | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
chemical weapons and it was an important red Line. And he let them | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
cross the red line. He totally ignored it. What would you have done | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
that would have been useful? You could have set up a humanitarian | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
safe haven and protected it with force and armed the rebels to deter | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
the Russians and make it a situation where Assad could not continue. We | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
now have a situation where Assad is now a fact of life, he is not going | :06:48. | :06:52. | |
anywhere. There is not much you can do without you were serious | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
involvement. I am glad we touched on Syria, it is an important developing | :06:57. | :06:57. | |
story. Now, what's black and white | :06:58. | :06:59. | |
and not read all over? Even if you did read it, | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
would you be able to remember all the promises and whether | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
the Government had delivered them? Today, we're launching our very | :07:08. | :07:09. | |
own Manifesto Tracker, which charts the progress | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
of the pledges Sort of like a blue virtual | :07:15. | :07:15. | |
Edstone, or maybe not! Over the next four years, | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
we'll be monitoring the Government's progress on all of the commitments | :07:20. | :07:27. | |
the Conservatives made ahead of the 2015 general election | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
in their manifesto, and a few big promises they made | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
during the campaign. So, we've identified 161 pledges, | :07:35. | :07:43. | |
and loaded them into our Manifesto We've grouped them into categories | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
covering all the major areas of Government policy, | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
from the constitution And we've given each | :07:53. | :07:53. | |
of the promises a colour rating. Red signalling little | :07:54. | :08:01. | |
or no progress so far. Amber when the Government | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
has made some progress. Let's start by looking | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
at the Conservative commitments As you can see they've made at least | :08:10. | :08:15. | |
some progress on all of them. Easily the party's biggest promise | :08:16. | :08:25. | |
here was to hold a referendum on Britain's membership | :08:26. | :08:27. | |
of the EU by December 2017. We've marked that amber, | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
to show that some progress The bill setting the vote has passed | :08:34. | :08:35. | |
through Parliament and it's looking likely the poll will | :08:36. | :08:42. | |
be held this year. The cornerstone of the Conservative | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
election campaign last May was how they would handle the economy, | :08:47. | :08:48. | |
and as you can see, that's where we've found the greatest | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
number of promises. Let's look at one of the policies | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
they identified as part of their plan to | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
eliminate the deficit. That was to reduce the welfare | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
bill by ?12 billion. Again, we've given | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
that an amber rating. The savings were outlined | :09:11. | :09:14. | |
in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement But it's too early to say | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
if they'll all be achieved. When it comes to the constitution, | :09:17. | :09:25. | |
the Government's made some progress But it promised to scrap | :09:26. | :09:27. | |
the Human Rights Act, and replace it That gets a red rating, | :09:28. | :09:35. | |
as although there have been reports something is in the pipeline, | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
as yet there is no sign of the legislation | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
required to introduce it. Some manifesto commitments have | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
already been delivered in full. Like the introduction of English | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
votes for English laws to give English MPs a veto over laws that | :09:55. | :09:57. | |
only affect England. Other changes promised in | :09:58. | :10:06. | |
the manifesto are less well known. Like the promise to recover | :10:07. | :10:08. | |
?500 million from migrants and overseas visitors who use | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
the NHS by the middle We will give that amber, | :10:12. | :10:13. | |
because some new charges have already been introduced, | :10:14. | :10:21. | |
and the Department of Health Let's add on the rest | :10:22. | :10:23. | |
of the promises in each of the policy areas and have a look | :10:24. | :10:31. | |
at how the government Taken together, of the 161 | :10:32. | :10:33. | |
Conservative election commitments, we think ten are red, | :10:34. | :10:42. | |
111 are amber, and 40 are green. We'll be returning to the manifesto | :10:43. | :10:51. | |
tracker every few months, but in the meantime you can find | :10:52. | :10:53. | |
the full data on the politics And with us now the Cabinet Office | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
Minister and Paymaster General, Matt Hancock, he oversees | :10:57. | :11:08. | |
the implementation Welcome to the programme, do you | :11:09. | :11:18. | |
regard this manifesto as a contract with the British people and do you | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
intend to intimate it all? It is certainly the commitments on which | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
we were elected. We take it incredibly seriously -- goals to | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
implement it. That is the goal. We have got about a quarter delivered, | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
we have had less than a year. In fact, I really welcome this scrutiny | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
and this project you have been on. We will implement and publish our | :11:42. | :11:48. | |
own plans and make sure that each individual manifesto commitment has | :11:49. | :11:51. | |
an individual minister responsible for delivering it. And publish that. | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
We will nationalise you and this process. You will nationalise us? We | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
can't afford you, probably, but we will do this as a government. Let's | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
see if you still want to do that at the end of this interview. Your | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
manifesto promised to scrap Labour's Human Rights Act and replace it with | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
a British Bill of Rights, and abolition Bill would be drafted | :12:13. | :12:15. | |
within the first hundred days after the election. It didn't happen. Why? | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
The work is in progress. Internally, we will publish it. Why have you not | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
kept to the timetable? The timetable of the whole manifesto is to deliver | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
within the parliament. You said this would be done, the draft bill within | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
the first 100 days. Clearly, we will deliver against the commitment. I | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
thought it was a bit harsh to call that read, I would call that Amber. | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
It is not delivered yet. We called it red because the justice minister, | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
Mr Bove, said the consultation had been delayed yet again. The question | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
is what we deliver over the five-year parliament. -- Mr Gove. We | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
are less than a year in and we have got one quarter delivered and that | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
is one where there is work in progress but we are committed to | :13:03. | :13:05. | |
doing it. The manifesto promised to make the UK's Supreme Court "The | :13:06. | :13:11. | |
ultimate arbiter of human rights in the UK". That will not happen. This | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
is all part of the same package which we have committed to | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
delivering. We are less than a year in and we have a few years to go. | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
Whatever the package, the Supreme Court will not be "The ultimate | :13:27. | :13:31. | |
arbiter" on human rights, will it? That is part of the proposed | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
package, as part of the replacement of the Human Rights Act. We will get | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
to that. There is a bigger picture, which is making sure that we deliver | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
on the overall set of commitments in the manifesto where we are making | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
good progress. But, you can enhance the role of the Cyprian Court on | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
human rights, I understand that. Maybe the British Bill of Rights | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
will do their -- Supreme Court. But at the end of the day, the European | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
Court of Human Rights is the ultimate arbiter. That is the | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
factual legal situation. It all depends on the changes that you | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
make. We will bring forward a package of changes to be able to | :14:11. | :14:13. | |
deliver against these commitments in the Parliament. Mr Gove says we are | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
not planning to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights. | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
Let's see what happens when we published the proposals on this | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
particular package. Immigration, probably your biggest fail, I would | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
suggest. The 2050 manifesto repeated the pledge in the 2010 manifesto to | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
get annual net migration down to tens of thousands -- 2015. After | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
five years, far from getting it down, net migration reached a record | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
336,000 last year, that is a spectacular failure. Clearly, this | :14:46. | :14:52. | |
is a commitment. To get immigration down to tens of thousands, that | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
remains the goal. But we haven't yet reached it. Presumably you did not | :14:56. | :15:03. | |
call that green. No. It is red. That the commitment remains because we | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
think it is reasonable to control immigration in this country, so that | :15:08. | :15:10. | |
while some immigration can be very good for the economy and more | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
broadly, actually it has got to be done at a reasonable level. | :15:15. | :15:19. | |
It's not just that you didn't get it down enough, it's actually risen | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
since you came to power. Why would you promise what you have failed | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
dismally to deliver again? I think it is a reasonable goal. Clearly we | :15:29. | :15:34. | |
put it in the manifesto for a reason, to get immigration down. And | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
we are less than a year into the Parliament and we've got four years | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
to go. Is it a goal or a pledge? Do you pledge to the British people | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
today that net migration will be down to the tens of thousands by | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
2020? Well I pledge to fulfil what was in the manifesto on which I and | :15:56. | :15:59. | |
every other Conservative MPs was elected. Well that pledge was to get | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
it down to the tens of thousands. It was meant to be in the tens of | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
thousands by 2015, it is 346,000, is there a pledge that it will be down | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
to the tens of thousands by 2020? There is a whole series of actions | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
that we are taking, not least the EU renegotiation to try to tackle | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
immigration and make sure that it's brought down to a reasonable level. | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
Again there is a broader point, of the 160 odd commitments that you are | :16:30. | :16:34. | |
measuring, delivering an accord of them, of course some are quicker | :16:35. | :16:37. | |
than others to deliver on, it's fair to say. But the whole point of | :16:38. | :16:41. | |
having the manifesto and tracking it as we are doing is to make sure we | :16:42. | :16:46. | |
know where we are up to. Lets come onto the European negotiations, that | :16:47. | :16:53. | |
was in the manifesto. The manifesto promised several key things in the | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
renegotiation, a four-year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits, | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
a new residency requirement for social housing, and no child benefit | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
for EU migrants if their children live abroad. The draft deal contains | :17:07. | :17:13. | |
none of these things. Well, firstly, as you say, the centrepiece of our | :17:14. | :17:19. | |
European policy was to have the referendum, and we will be having | :17:20. | :17:22. | |
the referendum. Although you call that Amber it is certainly going to | :17:23. | :17:25. | |
happen. I understand that but none of the things you said we would get | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
to vote on in this referendum have been delivered. We then sat out -- | :17:30. | :17:39. | |
set out what we wanted to negotiate and that negotiation is not | :17:40. | :17:42. | |
complete. We have a lot of work to do this week to get the best | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
possible deal we can. I hope we will have a good deal and be able to vote | :17:47. | :17:49. | |
to stay in a reformed Europe. There is a version of the ban on EU | :17:50. | :17:56. | |
migrants benefits, there is not no child benefits, now there will be 28 | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
different child benefits that Britain will pay but there is no | :18:01. | :18:04. | |
mention of residency requirement for social housing, no mention of that | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
in the deal, so that has gone? Look, we don't know the outcome of this | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
negotiation until the end of this week. There is a week of hard work | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
to get the deal. But there is a bigger picture here. Social housing | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
is not on the agenda? Let's see what we get in this deal over the next | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
week. But there's a bigger point here, which is that we said we'd | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
have the renegotiation, lots and lots of people said you are never | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
going to get these things on the table. A question of in work | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
benefits, child benefit, we were told you couldn't even put that on | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
the agenda. The discussion in Europe this week is exactly how far we go | :18:47. | :18:50. | |
on those. People said that we couldn't deliver anything in this | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
space and we've managed to deliver already the draft deal, and we will | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
see where we end up. But not what was in the manifesto. We will see | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
where we end up at the end of this week. We will indeed. Not | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
necessarily next week but in the weeks ahead we will be coming back | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
to go through this. Onto the economy, you put in place a charter | :19:10. | :19:12. | |
for budget responsibility which commits you to running a surplus, a | :19:13. | :19:18. | |
legal obligation as well as a policy. The in situ for fiscal | :19:19. | :19:21. | |
studies says that will require tax rises or spending cuts as yet | :19:22. | :19:24. | |
unannounced, do you agree? Not in the latest financial forecast put | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
out by the office for budget responsible to who independently | :19:31. | :19:32. | |
advise on these, and we have a budget in just over a month's time | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
so we will see what the figures say, then. Clearly in the latest forecast | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
from the government, yes, we have that surplus. You have not hit a | :19:41. | :19:47. | |
surplus. We have hit it in the forecast. And they change. They do, | :19:48. | :19:54. | |
as the economy changes. On that economic front there was an awful | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
lot in the manifesto on that, it is all about economic security, | :20:00. | :20:02. | |
generating jobs, in the same way that the national Security ones were | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
all about national security. And those were the two elements at the | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
heart of this manifesto that we were elected on. I would say that we are | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
delivering very strongly on both. In terms of the big picture of what you | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
are getting from the message that we said we were going to deliver. Let | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
me come down to the smaller but still very important picture. You | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
have a legal obligation to reach a surplus by 2020. If, to reach that | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
surplus, you had to raise taxes, would you? Look, much as I'd love | :20:31. | :20:37. | |
to, I'm not going to set out tax policy on Sunday morning. To meet | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
the legal obligation, if it required tax increases, would there be tax | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
increases? We've set out the plans and the plans hit a surplus. We did | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
that in the Autumn Statement in November. Clearly the economy | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
changes all the time, internationally, people have seen | :20:56. | :20:58. | |
falls in the stock market in the last few months. But we will have a | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
budget in more than a month's time. But I voted to have that surplus and | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
that is clearly what we will set out to do. You promised a lower tax | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
society. Yes. Yet on the forecast, the overall tax burden is rising as | :21:15. | :21:20. | |
a percentage of GDP and on the forecast, not the buoyancy but extra | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
tax that you have introduced will be ?50 billion higher. So you have | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
previous on this, you could raise taxes again because you already | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
have? Clearly there are some areas where we have tightened things up, | :21:33. | :21:37. | |
especially on tax avoidance. We took an extra ?5 billion from tax | :21:38. | :21:44. | |
avoidance measures. And what about the billions in addition to that? We | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
have reduced the tax burden especially on people in lower wage | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
jobs, they are going to get the national minimum wage but we are | :21:52. | :21:54. | |
well on the way to the manifesto commitment of making sure you don't | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
have to pay any income taxed until you make ?12,500. We have made | :21:59. | :22:05. | |
progress but there is more to do. The manifesto talks about reducing | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
the tax relief on pension contributions for people earning | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
more than ?150,000, people on 45%, the highest income tax band, you are | :22:14. | :22:21. | |
going to cut tax relief on their pension contributions. If you were | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
to also cut the tax relief of those on the 40% rate, that would be | :22:25. | :22:31. | |
breaching the manifesto? There we've done what we said we would do in the | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
manifesto. We've followed the manifesto clearly in terms of the | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
commitment that it made. Outside the manifesto there's always going to be | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
other things that you do. On pension tax review were explicit that it | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
would be those in the 45% wouldn't get it, you didn't mention any other | :22:50. | :22:53. | |
bracket, the imprecation is that it's only the 45%. If you took away | :22:54. | :22:59. | |
tax relief from the 40% taxpayers that would be broken manifesto | :23:00. | :23:03. | |
commitment? That's not how I see it, you can add things to the manifesto. | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
Look at the whole reform programme a massive reform programme which was | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
not in our manifesto because we've built it up as a proposal since | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
then. Likewise the Prime Ministerspeech on social mobility | :23:16. | :23:22. | |
and an tackling an just inequalities -- an just inequalities. We've done | :23:23. | :23:28. | |
a huge amount of that on the autumn. Delivering on the manifesto | :23:29. | :23:35. | |
commitments is absolutely essential. But it is not the only thing you do | :23:36. | :23:38. | |
in government because you respond to events. But the purpose of this | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
interview is to hold your manifesto to account. Hunting, when will you | :23:44. | :23:47. | |
give Parliament the chance to repeal the hunting act. We are committed to | :23:48. | :23:50. | |
doing that. When? In this Parliament. We looked at doing it | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
early on. You dropped that. We decided not to do it then, but we | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
are committed to its. You set a target of ?1 trillion of exports by | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
2020, most forecasters including your own oh BR say you will be at | :24:06. | :24:12. | |
least ?350 billion short. Can we agree that you will not hit that | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
target? It's fair to say that it is stretching target, but it remains | :24:17. | :24:22. | |
our target, our aspiration. But you will miss it. There is an awful lot | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
of work going into achieving it. Thank you for that, come back and we | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
will see the progress in the months ahead. Look forward to it. | :24:34. | :24:35. | |
And remember if you want to see how the government is doing | :24:36. | :24:37. | |
in detail our manifesto tracker is available for you to peruse | :24:38. | :24:40. | |
On Friday, new measures to tackle the pay gap between genders | :24:41. | :24:47. | |
From 2018, companies with more than 250 employees will have | :24:48. | :24:57. | |
to publish the differences in salary between men and women. | :24:58. | :25:00. | |
Businesses failing to address the problem will be named | :25:01. | :25:02. | |
Here's what Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan had to say. | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
Transparency about the gender pay gap in companies and public sector | :25:08. | :25:09. | |
organisations is going to be very important in driving behaviour. | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
So we are going to require companies, under the regulations, | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
companies of over 250 employees, to publish their gender pay gap | :25:20. | :25:22. | |
We, as a government, will then compile those league tables. | :25:23. | :25:30. | |
It will be two fold, one, companies will hopefully, | :25:31. | :25:33. | |
and we expect from the response we have, | :25:34. | :25:36. | |
to think a lot harder about where women are in their workforce. | :25:37. | :25:39. | |
How they are distributed, what they are being paid. | :25:40. | :25:41. | |
But it will also drive applications to work in certain | :25:42. | :25:44. | |
organisations because I think women will look and see what is the gender | :25:45. | :25:47. | |
pay gap in this organisation and is this somewhere | :25:48. | :25:49. | |
And with us now, General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady. | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
Welcome back. We know there is a gender pay gap. In some age groups, | :25:54. | :26:02. | |
not all, but still in some age groups. Where is the evidence that | :26:03. | :26:06. | |
it is a result of dissemination, of employers not paying properly, as | :26:07. | :26:13. | |
opposed to lifestyle and choices? We still do have this pretty crazy | :26:14. | :26:21. | |
situation where women have Giroud and 80p for everyone pound that men | :26:22. | :26:25. | |
do across the economy. -- where women earn 80p for every pound that | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
men do. This is a welcome step, this initiative, but it is a very small | :26:30. | :26:34. | |
step. It is about reporting, not about telling us why this is going | :26:35. | :26:37. | |
on, not coming up with actions to deal with it. When you dig down from | :26:38. | :26:41. | |
the headline figure, and you have just used one, you begin to see some | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
quite deep-seated cultural issues, not just a matter of economics. The | :26:46. | :26:50. | |
labour market study shows that men tend to work in occupations that pay | :26:51. | :26:53. | |
more, that's been a historic thing. And women in jobs that pay less. For | :26:54. | :26:58. | |
example men in construction, women in retail. Men in computer | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
programming, women in nursing. That is one of the explanations for the | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
page gap. There is certainly still big job separation, but one of the | :27:08. | :27:13. | |
questions we must ask is, is it case of equal values? People paying for | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
the work of equal value. It is illegal to pay anybody less than a | :27:20. | :27:26. | |
man is getting or vice versa, equal pay for equal jobs. For example, why | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
is looking after children considered to be less valuable than mending a | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
car? The problem is, in order for women to prove it, they've got to be | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
able to take employment tribunal claims, and of course we've seen | :27:41. | :27:42. | |
this government introduce very significant fees that have massively | :27:43. | :27:48. | |
reduced the number of women being able to take pay and six | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
dissemination claims. Is on the gender pay gap really a generational | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
matter, and it might be resolving itself? I'd like to show you this | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
chart, here, which looks at different age groups. For women aged | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
40 to 49, there is a gap, it's coming down but there is still a | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
substantial gap. For younger women in the 22 to 29, there is no pay | :28:11. | :28:14. | |
gap, indeed there is some evidence now that the gender pay gap is the | :28:15. | :28:18. | |
other way among younger people than it is amongst men. What I think it | :28:19. | :28:25. | |
shows you is that the real problem kicks in when women have babies. | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
Yes. That's when women are much more likely to work part-time, much more | :28:32. | :28:35. | |
likely to need nurseries, and as we get older and we are looking after | :28:36. | :28:38. | |
elderly parents, too. Elder care as well. Some of those public service | :28:39. | :28:44. | |
cuts are hitting our sure start centres and care for the elderly. I | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
think you hit on something, there. You can begin to see the return of | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
the gender pay gap as women hit their late 20s or early 30s, because | :28:54. | :28:57. | |
the average age that women have their first child is 28 and a half. | :28:58. | :29:03. | |
So that suggests that the policy response will have to be quite | :29:04. | :29:07. | |
sophisticated to get rid of a later developing pay gap. Stopping cuts on | :29:08. | :29:11. | |
this is would help but also helping dads as well. A lot of men nowadays | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
want to be more involved with their children but they need more paid | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
paternity to be able to do that. I want to show you another chart that | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
suggests there are developers. This shows you a figure that is not | :29:27. | :29:32. | |
widely known, there are now every year 100,000 more women applying for | :29:33. | :29:36. | |
university than men. 100,000 more. Women from poor backgrounds are 50% | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
more likely to go to university than men. Women now take most of the | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
first in medicine and law, two professions that are pretty well | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
paid. Again, isn't this sense that, even in the later years, now, the | :29:53. | :29:56. | |
gender pay gap could begin to resolve itself? | :29:57. | :30:00. | |
I really hope so the TUC analysis shows that at this rate of change it | :30:01. | :30:07. | |
would take another 45 years. No, I looked at these figures. Frances | :30:08. | :30:14. | |
O'Grady, you took one year of the pay gap, which strode it came down | :30:15. | :30:21. | |
by 0.2%. Dodt which showed. If you had taken the last ten years it | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
still takes too long but it is not 47 years, that was a propaganda | :30:27. | :30:30. | |
figure. You can't do a trend on one year. Most people agree we need bold | :30:31. | :30:35. | |
action to change it. Given we have agreed that it is a complicated | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
picture and now becomes an issue primarily for women who have taken | :30:40. | :30:43. | |
time off and then go back into the workforce again, get me one thing | :30:44. | :30:48. | |
that the government could do that would stop this gender pay gap | :30:49. | :30:53. | |
re-emerging in their 30s and 40s? Stop cuts to nurseries. Provide a | :30:54. | :30:58. | |
proper system of care for old people, that allows women and men to | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
combine those caring responsibilities with a responsible | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
job. That is what would really make... I can see how it would help. | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
It is about progression and people feeling they can go for that | :31:11. | :31:13. | |
promotion or training course that would get them a better job. And | :31:14. | :31:17. | |
having the confidence to do it, that their life won't fall apart if they | :31:18. | :31:23. | |
tried. If the TUC wanted to be ahead of the curve, should you not now be | :31:24. | :31:27. | |
giving a lot more attention to the growing underperformance of young | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
males, particularly from poorer backgrounds in education and the | :31:32. | :31:34. | |
workforce? That is a looming problem. Believe you me, we do, we | :31:35. | :31:41. | |
do. We've been fighting very hard for not just more apprenticeships | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
but real quality apprenticeships. Equal opportunities for all. That | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
would help. There are a lot of young men who want to be as involved in | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
bringing up their children as their partners do. Why doesn't the TUC | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
practice what it preaches when it comes to gender equality? Only three | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
of the largest ten unions are led by women even though most unions have a | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
female majority membership. Being a national offices in the unions are | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
lower than the percentage of the night union members. Eight out of | :32:12. | :32:16. | |
ten. And seven out of ten unions have women where they are | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
significantly underrepresented on the national executive. Of the TUC | :32:22. | :32:25. | |
delegation is. Even though women are majority membership. As you know, | :32:26. | :32:29. | |
the picture has changed dramatically over the last few years. We do just | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
have three in ten union leaders elected on average. That is a big | :32:34. | :32:39. | |
change, it is a lot better than the board room and a hell of a lot | :32:40. | :32:42. | |
better than many sat around the Cabinet table. It is still not that | :32:43. | :32:53. | |
great. 74% female membership. Only 70% full time. 75% TUC delegation | :32:54. | :33:02. | |
and only 28 on the TUC. Led by a woman general secretary. You have a | :33:03. | :33:07. | |
way to go. For the first time in history it is 50-50. We are | :33:08. | :33:10. | |
committed. We want to work with businesses who want to make that | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
change. I am delighted to say. He loves unions. Thank you. | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
It's just gone 11:30am, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :33:20. | :33:21. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now | :33:22. | :33:24. | |
Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead. | :33:25. | :33:40. | |
Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales. | :33:41. | :33:42. | |
The head of the British Army tells us there's | :33:43. | :33:45. | |
been a culture of change in the forces following a series | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
And the day for lovers, we look at that peculiar | :33:49. | :33:51. | |
political coupling up - coalitions. | :33:52. | :33:52. | |
But first, the head of the British Army is a man | :33:53. | :33:55. | |
Making sure soldiers are ready at a moment's notice to be deployed | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
to every corner of the world and to be put in harm's way. | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
But he's also a man with a duty of care for soldiers when they're | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
And it's fair to say that on that front, there have been failures | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
which have affected soldiers from Wales. | :34:11. | :34:12. | |
We've spoken with General Sir Nicholas Carter about that | :34:13. | :34:14. | |
and the possibility of troops on the ground in Syria. | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
The man in charge of the Army, General Sir Nicolas Carter, | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
has served in Northern Ireland and Kosovo and commanded brigades | :34:21. | :34:23. | |
He took over as the Chief of the General Staff | :34:24. | :34:31. | |
He is in charge of an army which has had a difficult | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
Shortcomings have been highlighted on several occasions. | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
Earlier this year, a coroner found the Army's chain | :34:40. | :34:41. | |
of command failed to prevent unlawful physical punishments known | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
as beastings, which led to the death of a soldier, | :34:45. | :34:47. | |
Private Gavin Williams from Caerphilly. | :34:48. | :34:50. | |
In 2013, three SAS reservists died on a | :34:51. | :34:54. | |
training match in the Brecon Beacons. | :34:55. | :34:56. | |
According to the coroner, they died as a result of neglect. | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
The inquest into the death of Cheryl James from Llangollen | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
who died in the Deepcut Army barracks 20 years ago, | :35:04. | :35:06. | |
Our correspondent Daniel Davies began | :35:07. | :35:14. | |
by asking General Carter about Wales's importance | :35:15. | :35:15. | |
Wales is very important to the British Army, | :35:16. | :35:18. | |
not least because it punches well above its weight in terms | :35:19. | :35:21. | |
of the soldiers it sends as but also because we've got a lot | :35:22. | :35:24. | |
We've got a lot of ranges, we've got people who serve | :35:25. | :35:28. | |
That relationship with the community is really important to us. | :35:29. | :35:31. | |
In Wales recently we have had some high profile inquests of service | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
people who have died at base or in training exercises. | :35:37. | :35:43. | |
The Army has been severely criticised on a couple | :35:44. | :35:45. | |
Does that dent the reputation of the Army in Wales? | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
I think the two instances you refer to are both ones | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
I would like to say I think it would be difficult | :35:54. | :35:58. | |
for those sorts of things to happen again because we have | :35:59. | :36:00. | |
changed our culture, we have recently issued a new code | :36:01. | :36:03. | |
of leadership which is something I feel very strongly about. | :36:04. | :36:05. | |
I would be surprised if it is occurred again. | :36:06. | :36:07. | |
I'm not saying it can't happen because of course it can. | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
We have put in place a lot of different processes to make sure | :36:11. | :36:13. | |
those sorts of things don't happen in the future. | :36:14. | :36:15. | |
But the case of the three men who died in the Brecon Beacons | :36:16. | :36:18. | |
on SAS training exercise, that wasn't that long | :36:19. | :36:22. | |
No. I wasn't really referring to that. | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
I was referring to the other instance which is in the media | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
No, and that is also extremely dispiriting when something | :36:31. | :36:33. | |
It does call all those responsible to have a really good look | :36:34. | :36:38. | |
at the way they adhere to what are really quite well | :36:39. | :36:40. | |
thought through drills and procedures to how you handle | :36:41. | :36:43. | |
If someone were to look at that case and others | :36:44. | :36:47. | |
and come to the conclusion that being in the Army is not just | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
dangerous in battle but as an employer, it's not safe, | :36:51. | :36:54. | |
I think you have to go back and look at when things | :36:55. | :36:59. | |
I recognise the Brecon thing happened recently but the other | :37:00. | :37:02. | |
instances that have been in the media, one happened ten years | :37:03. | :37:05. | |
ago and the other happened 20 years ago. | :37:06. | :37:07. | |
What I would say is, we are an employer which now we pull | :37:08. | :37:10. | |
very highly in terms of our approval rating. | :37:11. | :37:13. | |
For one or two very small things that have occurred, | :37:14. | :37:17. | |
I don't think you can knock the whole of the Army's reputation | :37:18. | :37:20. | |
But you are trying to change the culture of the Army in other | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
ways and recruit from communities that are underrepresented. | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
Does that not in itself suggest the Army has got a problem? | :37:29. | :37:31. | |
The Army's got a maximise talent and that is | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
With the economy and change in demography | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
and all that goes with that, we are in a position where we have | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
got to become a very modern employer. | :37:43. | :37:44. | |
That requires us to draw from all of Britain's society | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
Part of that, of course, is having a career structure | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
which is flexible and which all sorts of people can serve in. | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
It's about demonstrating the fact we have, we | :37:56. | :37:58. | |
are the largest employer of apprentices in Europe which a lot | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
We offer a career for all sorts of different | :38:03. | :38:07. | |
people in all sorts of different ways which is something that perhaps | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
In terms of our culture, it is about recognising we do have | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
That leadership on operations, I think, is second to none. | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
What I want to do is to make sure that leadership style is translated | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
into the way we lead in peacetime as well. | :38:23. | :38:24. | |
How do you do that given the damage the Army's reputation has | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
I would question the extent to which the Army's | :38:29. | :38:33. | |
It doesn't stand up when you poll and indeed the most recent poll | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
would show as an institution we are liked by some 90%. | :38:39. | :38:42. | |
That was our approval rating which I think the BBC would die | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
The plain fact is we have a good reputation and we will hang | :38:46. | :38:49. | |
All organisations have to adapt and we have to adapt | :38:50. | :38:52. | |
because the generation that is joining the Army | :38:53. | :38:54. | |
now is a different generation to my generation and probably you. | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
The upshot of that is, we have to think hard about how | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
we lead them and the opportunities we provide them. | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
That is why it is healthy to look at our culture, | :39:04. | :39:05. | |
all organisations need to do that all the time. | :39:06. | :39:07. | |
We have world-class junior leaders and I want them to continue | :39:08. | :39:11. | |
There is a big military decision facing British | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
politicians at the moment, whether to renew the nuclear weapons | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
The answer is a political decision, it's not a decision I'm involved in. | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
I think the government has made it clear | :39:27. | :39:28. | |
But there could be another government after the next | :39:29. | :39:31. | |
election and a party, the Labour Party, that hasn't made | :39:32. | :39:34. | |
Do you not give them advice on what you think Britain needs? | :39:35. | :39:39. | |
I might well give them advice when necessary but the fact | :39:40. | :39:42. | |
of the matter is your question is hypothetical. | :39:43. | :39:43. | |
We have the government of today and I think | :39:44. | :39:46. | |
On the threat that Britain faces, what are | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
those threats and is the Army up to facing them in an era of cuts? | :39:53. | :40:00. | |
It might have been but you probably haven't spotted that we had | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
a defence review that culminated in November last year | :40:06. | :40:07. | |
and the Chancellor in July of last year made | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
a commitment to peg defence spending to 2% of GDP. | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
That represents, over the course of this Parliament, | :40:14. | :40:15. | |
an uplift in resources which is very positive. | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
Rather, we've got a government that is investing in its | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
That is having a big impact on the morale of our Armed | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
Forces, in particularly the Army where we're seeing retention | :40:27. | :40:28. | |
But to answer your question on threats, the answer is I cannot | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
remember a time in my lifetime where the world | :40:34. | :40:36. | |
For the head of the Army that means you've got to try and back some | :40:37. | :40:42. | |
horses in terms of what you train to do. | :40:43. | :40:44. | |
Ultimately, it comes down to talented people being able | :40:45. | :40:48. | |
to adaptable because pound to a brass farthing | :40:49. | :40:50. | |
we will get it wrong the first time and the trick is adapting quickly | :40:51. | :40:54. | |
Does Britain need to have troops on the ground in Syria | :40:55. | :40:58. | |
I think it is very difficult to see how that'll play out. | :40:59. | :41:05. | |
Of course, what we need to do when we deploy | :41:06. | :41:07. | |
troops is to be very clear about the purpose of why | :41:08. | :41:10. | |
You can see that in all sorts of places across the world. | :41:11. | :41:14. | |
Is that the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan | :41:15. | :41:16. | |
where you served in both those countries, where perhaps the end | :41:17. | :41:21. | |
goal of the mission wasn't clear enough? | :41:22. | :41:23. | |
No, I think the goal of the mission was clear enough. | :41:24. | :41:25. | |
It was difficult to deliver and I think the British Army did | :41:26. | :41:28. | |
extraordinarily well given the circumstances. | :41:29. | :41:30. | |
Now, did you get a card this morning? | :41:31. | :41:38. | |
And the idea of coupling up is also on the minds of AMs as it's possible | :41:39. | :41:44. | |
a coalition of some sort will need to be formed after | :41:45. | :41:47. | |
Cemlyn Davies now on what kind of new political partnerships | :41:48. | :41:52. | |
The roses are out, the fizz is on ice. | :41:53. | :42:10. | |
Grand gestures of commitment will be the order of the day. | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
There will be sickly displays of affection too. | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
New relationships could blossom, old flames may be rekindled. | :42:18. | :42:22. | |
And if the opinion polls are anything to go by | :42:23. | :42:25. | |
the dating game may still be enforcing after May's election. | :42:26. | :42:30. | |
They suggest no party will win an overall majority and Labour, | :42:31. | :42:34. | |
who have governed without a majority for | :42:35. | :42:36. | |
the past five years, could end up with fewer seats | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
prompting the party to turn its back on the single life | :42:41. | :42:44. | |
Labour have previously held hands with the Lib Dems and more | :42:45. | :42:53. | |
Valerie Livingstone is a political analyst | :42:54. | :42:59. | |
I think Labour will campaign incredibly hard to get | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
as close to that 30 mark as possible. | :43:05. | :43:07. | |
If they don't quite get there and the Liberal Democrats | :43:08. | :43:09. | |
maintain a few seats in the Senedd, they might look to a coalition | :43:10. | :43:13. | |
Kirsty Williams could be brought into government for a lower cost | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
perhaps to the Welsh Labour Government than any other party. | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
A coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour could prove quite | :43:23. | :43:28. | |
Plaid Cymru would be the third largest party | :43:29. | :43:32. | |
in the Assembly based on current polling | :43:33. | :43:33. | |
and they would demand seats in the Cabinet. | :43:34. | :43:37. | |
They may also make it difficult for Labour ministers to get | :43:38. | :43:40. | |
through a number of key policy such as the M4 relief road. | :43:41. | :43:43. | |
Do you think that either of those scenarios would lead to a stable | :43:44. | :43:48. | |
government that would last the next five years? | :43:49. | :43:52. | |
I think either a Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition or a | :43:53. | :43:55. | |
Plaid-Cymru Labour coalition is likely to be quite a stable | :43:56. | :43:58. | |
arrangement particularly when we factor in Ukip | :43:59. | :44:01. | |
who are going to be in the Senedd for the first time after this | :44:02. | :44:05. | |
Because no party will want to be seen to destabilise | :44:06. | :44:08. | |
the government when Ukip are the opposition force | :44:09. | :44:11. | |
That of a rainbow coalition made up of Plaid Cymru, | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
It has nearly happened before and last week it emerged Plaid Cymru | :44:18. | :44:24. | |
and the Lib Dems had already been on pre-election | :44:25. | :44:26. | |
dates with the Greens although any talk of a lasting relationship has | :44:27. | :44:31. | |
Plaid Cymru would struggle to enter into any arrangement with the | :44:32. | :44:36. | |
Leader Leanne Wood has already ruled out a coalition | :44:37. | :44:42. | |
But strange things happen after elections and we may | :44:43. | :44:47. | |
see a change of leadership either with the Conservatives or | :44:48. | :44:49. | |
That might lead to changes down the line but at the moment it | :44:50. | :44:53. | |
It has been suggested that 20 seats, a third of the total, | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
could be enough for a party to try governing alone. | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
The SNP did just that with a similar proportion | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
of the Scottish Parliament seats in 2007. | :45:06. | :45:09. | |
The people of Scotland know that this is a minority government | :45:10. | :45:11. | |
and operates in a Parliament therefore different any other | :45:12. | :45:14. | |
elected in the history of this Parliament. | :45:15. | :45:18. | |
It wasn't really expected to last that long | :45:19. | :45:20. | |
but it did and it gave the SNP a toe hold on power they then grew | :45:21. | :45:24. | |
I suspect the situation in Cardiff Bay is very difference | :45:25. | :45:30. | |
because we are looking at Labour being the | :45:31. | :45:32. | |
They have been in government for a very, very long time, | :45:33. | :45:36. | |
as long as anybody can remember. | :45:37. | :45:37. | |
If Labour were to win 20 seats in the Senedd | :45:38. | :45:42. | |
We would be looking at a leadership election so no, | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
I don't think they would manage it on 20 seats but if they were up | :45:47. | :45:49. | |
to 27 28, minority government would be an option for them. | :45:50. | :45:55. | |
Short of a formal relationship, a more casual | :45:56. | :45:57. | |
understanding could also help a party govern without a majority. | :45:58. | :46:02. | |
Confidence and supply is an arrangement we might see | :46:03. | :46:04. | |
But I wonder if we would almost have that without it being spoken about? | :46:05. | :46:12. | |
Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats won't want to be | :46:13. | :46:15. | |
seen to side with the Conservatives and Ukip and therefore Labour can | :46:16. | :46:19. | |
The picture will be much clearer on the 6th of May when we will know | :46:20. | :46:27. | |
Like the most romantic partnership, | :46:28. | :46:32. | |
So much for who might get together but what's it like when you're | :46:33. | :46:41. | |
trying to form a new coalition and indeed when you're | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
Rhodri Morgan, as we saw, formed coalitions with both | :46:46. | :46:48. | |
the Lib Dems and Plaid during his time in charge, | :46:49. | :46:51. | |
while Jenny Willott was a minister in the Conservative-Lib Dem | :46:52. | :46:53. | |
Thank you both for coming in to discuss this. Rhodri Morgan, is a | :46:54. | :47:07. | |
man who has led to coalitions, what is it like? Is it a lots more | :47:08. | :47:13. | |
difficult than minority government? No, not a lot more difficult than | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
minority government. You have a reasonable assurance that you are | :47:18. | :47:23. | |
going to get your budget through and that is of an overwhelming | :47:24. | :47:26. | |
importance. How you going to get your budget through? With Carwyn | :47:27. | :47:31. | |
Jones at the moment, he has relied on the fact he could do a deal with | :47:32. | :47:35. | |
the Lib Dems to the budget through even though he's not in coalition | :47:36. | :47:40. | |
because he is one vote short. He is more settled because it got that | :47:41. | :47:45. | |
certainty. It is not on a piece of paper. You can agree a programme | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
when you are in a coalition that is the key thing. You need to write a | :47:51. | :47:54. | |
Bible on what we have agreeing on over the next two and half years in | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
the first case with the Lib Dems in the year 2000, and for years in the | :47:59. | :48:04. | |
case Plaid Cymru in 2007. You need to set out as much as you possibly | :48:05. | :48:07. | |
can in advance and you not when to get any arguments popping up in 2008 | :48:08. | :48:14. | |
or 2009. You have shaken hands on it and then it'll flow throughout the | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
budget and the main items of policy will all be in there. Jenny Willott, | :48:19. | :48:22. | |
as somebody who is in the junior partnership side of it, is it more | :48:23. | :48:27. | |
difficult for the junior partner rather than the larger partner in a | :48:28. | :48:32. | |
coalition? Depends on what you mean by more difficult. Rhodri Morgan is | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
right. One of the real strengths of having a coalition is you negotiate | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
a programme in the beginning and that means you both know where you | :48:42. | :48:45. | |
are going to be heading and you both know what you are going to deliver. | :48:46. | :48:50. | |
That is committed to from the start. It is an advantage for the public | :48:51. | :48:53. | |
because they know what they are going to expect over the term of | :48:54. | :48:57. | |
that parliament or the Assembly which means they can hold their | :48:58. | :49:00. | |
politicians more easily to account for the labelling it or not. Whether | :49:01. | :49:05. | |
it can be very difficult for the junior partner is you don't get the | :49:06. | :49:11. | |
credit for things that are your ideas and the things you have pushed | :49:12. | :49:13. | |
through and made happen. You always get the bane for the popular | :49:14. | :49:20. | |
decisions. -- the blame. That is the case whenever you are, it happens in | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
mainland Europe, the UK and that is a real challenge because you don't | :49:25. | :49:31. | |
have the profile. You can't shout loud enough to claim credit for the | :49:32. | :49:36. | |
things that are yours. There is a reason for that. When you other | :49:37. | :49:39. | |
major party and I'm lucky enough that on both occasions we were the | :49:40. | :49:43. | |
major part of the coalition, what you do is to ensure that you don't | :49:44. | :49:48. | |
take anything out of your manifesto. You allow the minority partner to | :49:49. | :49:54. | |
add to the commitments you have made in your manifesto but you don't | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
anything out of yours. You add. Whereas the minority partner may | :50:00. | :50:03. | |
have to drop something that is in their manifesto and that is what | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
causes the difficulty. That is not Mrs is certainly true. In the | :50:07. | :50:11. | |
coalition agreement in Westminster it was three quarters of the Lib Dem | :50:12. | :50:17. | |
manifesto ended up in the coalition. The Conservatives dropped a huge | :50:18. | :50:20. | |
amount. There was a lot of stuff that was quite unpopular in their | :50:21. | :50:28. | |
manifesto they could do it. Does that make those initial days between | :50:29. | :50:32. | |
the election and forming a government, it was five days in your | :50:33. | :50:38. | |
case, a few weeks in yours, it must be fraught. It was many months. It | :50:39. | :50:44. | |
was 18 months into the first Assembly Government committee was | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
October 2000 when the election had been in May 1999. I had been the | :50:49. | :50:54. | |
first secretary as it was then since February. It's even from the | :50:55. | :51:01. | |
February to October. The budget was having to be... But in 2007 there | :51:02. | :51:08. | |
was an election. There were two months and wearing two months in | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
which there was a dance going on as to whether the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
and the Conservatives would form this rainbow coalition. Whether the | :51:18. | :51:20. | |
Lib Dems would come in with us because of what had happened in the | :51:21. | :51:25. | |
year 2000, 2003 and this issue of not getting any credit, the Lib Dems | :51:26. | :51:28. | |
are nervous about coming in again because they did not feel they got | :51:29. | :51:32. | |
the credit for what they did in the two and half years of the first | :51:33. | :51:41. | |
coalition. They wanted try out a different model. We try to get a | :51:42. | :51:44. | |
coalition with them, it didn't work. The only alternative was the rainbow | :51:45. | :51:47. | |
coalition or us going in with Plaid Cymru which eventually happened. I | :51:48. | :51:50. | |
remember this clearly, will they, won't they? Did you think at some | :51:51. | :51:54. | |
point the game was over and it was going to be the rainbow coalition? | :51:55. | :51:59. | |
It could have happened. Did you think it at the time? You try to | :52:00. | :52:05. | |
pretend that it isn't possible. A little bit like Wales playing | :52:06. | :52:09. | |
Scotland. Could we possibly lose? Yes, theoretically we could vote you | :52:10. | :52:14. | |
don't believe you could be out power. It was a knife edge within | :52:15. | :52:18. | |
the Liberal Democrats at which delegates turned up to their | :52:19. | :52:20. | |
national executive as to whether they turn down the rainbow coalition | :52:21. | :52:25. | |
or whether they approved it was up to be really boring at a point of | :52:26. | :52:29. | |
technicality it came down to a lack of a casting vote of the national | :52:30. | :52:34. | |
executive meeting. Do you think back and think how different it might | :52:35. | :52:40. | |
have then? Do not always what it is after elections. It's what makes it | :52:41. | :52:44. | |
more interesting. Elections are dull and boring if you know who is going | :52:45. | :52:49. | |
to win. Don't say that come with the campaign coming and we need to keep | :52:50. | :52:57. | |
it interesting! It also means that if you have an election where the | :52:58. | :53:02. | |
result is a dead cert, who is motivated to go out and vote? It'll | :53:03. | :53:06. | |
be difficult to get people fired up about it. If you have an election | :53:07. | :53:09. | |
where you're not sure who is going to win which a seat and you're not | :53:10. | :53:13. | |
sure what the numbers are going to be after the election, who is good | :53:14. | :53:16. | |
to form the government, that is likely to get people motivated. It | :53:17. | :53:20. | |
means your vote does make more of a difference and it could affect the | :53:21. | :53:26. | |
outcome of an election. From a party point of view, I don't want to look | :53:27. | :53:29. | |
at what may or may not happen after May because we don't know, having | :53:30. | :53:35. | |
just been in a coalition in Westminster are the party still | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
smarting after the defeat that came after that and might make them less | :53:41. | :53:44. | |
willing to go into a coalition here in Cardiff Bay? I'm sure that is | :53:45. | :53:50. | |
true. We had 57 MPs are now we have eight. It is going to take a while | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
for the emotional hurt to go away and for us to recover and feel | :53:55. | :54:00. | |
positive about it. One of the things that I take away from it personally, | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
I am very, I can still see the things we did in government the | :54:07. | :54:08. | |
Tories would never have done in a million years. Regardless of the | :54:09. | :54:14. | |
impact from a political party in the short time, even the matter the | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
result points going into politics if you known going into power. The only | :54:21. | :54:25. | |
way you change things and make Britain always a better place is if | :54:26. | :54:28. | |
you get into power and you are able to implement what you think is the | :54:29. | :54:32. | |
best way forward. By either doing it in a coalition or if you are lucky | :54:33. | :54:38. | |
enough to have a majority that is when you can change things. I am | :54:39. | :54:42. | |
proud of the things we did when we were in government. It was the right | :54:43. | :54:48. | |
thing for us to do. The points you were making then about it isn't | :54:49. | :54:51. | |
about ditching what is in your manifesto, it is about adding to it, | :54:52. | :54:55. | |
that suggests you are positive about the idea of a coalition because it | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
means more of the political spectrum is represented in government. | :55:01. | :55:06. | |
You make it work if the people of Wales don't give you the majority. | :55:07. | :55:12. | |
You have two negotiate very hard and the final negotiations with Plaid | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
Cymru did go into the second and third decimal place of what we were | :55:17. | :55:19. | |
proposing to do over the following four years. A lots of hard work went | :55:20. | :55:28. | |
into that initial period between June and July and then you hope that | :55:29. | :55:31. | |
by putting in the investment you are not there to have problems down the | :55:32. | :55:37. | |
line in 2008. How difficult was it to keep their discipline? It's Mr | :55:38. | :55:42. | |
bin fraught for the one Wales coalition, was difficult to keep | :55:43. | :55:50. | |
discipline? Not at a Cabinet level but sometimes at a group level and | :55:51. | :55:54. | |
sometimes at the party outside level. It is harder outside. If you | :55:55. | :56:00. | |
are involved in making the decisions you understand what the negotiations | :56:01. | :56:04. | |
have been. You understand what compromises have been made. For | :56:05. | :56:07. | |
ministers it is easier to stick together because you understand why | :56:08. | :56:10. | |
you have come to a particular position. It is natural for Labour | :56:11. | :56:15. | |
AMs who are not in government to think if those Plaid Cymru were not | :56:16. | :56:19. | |
in those coalition is I might have a chance of a ministerial office. So | :56:20. | :56:25. | |
much more to discuss. Thank you both coming in. | :56:26. | :56:26. | |
Don't forget you follow all the latest on Twitter. | :56:27. | :56:28. | |
MPs are on their half term holiday at the moment, so you might be | :56:29. | :56:41. | |
forgiven for thinking we'll be in for a quiet time next week. | :56:42. | :56:44. | |
On Thursday, David Cameron heads to Brussels where he hopes | :56:45. | :56:49. | |
to finalise his deal on Britain's membership of the EU at what's been | :56:50. | :56:52. | |
dubbed the "crunch" European summit. | :56:53. | :56:57. | |
We will see how crunchy it is. Tim, Mr Hammond, the Foreign Secretary | :56:58. | :57:07. | |
this morning, Matthew Hancock on this programme, they both said, | :57:08. | :57:10. | |
let's see what the final deal is because there could be more in it | :57:11. | :57:13. | |
than the draft settlement, more for the British government. I would | :57:14. | :57:16. | |
suggest that the draft settlement for Mr Cameron is as good as it | :57:17. | :57:22. | |
gets. That may well be the case, journalists have been seeking | :57:23. | :57:25. | |
rabbits from hats for many weeks, taking them out, and Eurosceptics | :57:26. | :57:28. | |
have been shooting them long before David Cameron got anywhere near it. | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
One thing I understand David Cameron will do before next weekend, he can | :57:34. | :57:36. | |
explain what he means by this sovereignty lock, the sovereign | :57:37. | :57:43. | |
Parliament will be... That is all smoke and mirrors. It is but it is | :57:44. | :57:47. | |
the one thing he has got left. It is something they can do in domestic | :57:48. | :57:51. | |
law and explain how the Supreme Court here will hold the European | :57:52. | :57:54. | |
Court to the letter of the European treaty. It is effectively getting a | :57:55. | :57:58. | |
British court to say that the European Court is not adhering to | :57:59. | :58:02. | |
its own treaties. If the summit finishes on Friday I suspect he will | :58:03. | :58:05. | |
unveil that either at a press conference or we will see him doing | :58:06. | :58:08. | |
Andrew Marr next Sunday and telling the world all about it. He is going | :58:09. | :58:13. | |
to do Andrew Marr next Sunday. Politically the Prime Minister would | :58:14. | :58:17. | |
be in trouble with his own party if this deal was further watered down, | :58:18. | :58:22. | |
wouldn't he? He needed to be strengthened. I'm hearing stories | :58:23. | :58:25. | |
coming out of Brussels saying there is a rabbit or two, but whether they | :58:26. | :58:31. | |
are tiny little rabbits or great big ones I don't know. I think this is a | :58:32. | :58:36. | |
campaign that will be won by fear, not by terrific bribes and isn't the | :58:37. | :58:40. | |
deal wonderful? What Philip Hammond said this morning was very | :58:41. | :58:46. | |
important, that if we vote to leave, Europe will make sure our conditions | :58:47. | :58:49. | |
are as bad as possible for fear of the whole thing falling apart, other | :58:50. | :58:55. | |
countries peeling off. That's the serious threat. The idea that we | :58:56. | :58:58. | |
will get a wonderful deal out of Europe or that France will go on | :58:59. | :59:03. | |
being our border guards and look after our camp in Calais, I think | :59:04. | :59:06. | |
it's those sorts of fears that will win it. If Mr Sarkozy wins in | :59:07. | :59:12. | |
France, it could change the camp whether we are in or outcome he is | :59:13. | :59:17. | |
campaigning on that. He could, that's true. Next year is next year. | :59:18. | :59:21. | |
The problem with all these things, like the out campaign saying if in, | :59:22. | :59:28. | |
Europe will react like this, none of that is provable until it happens. | :59:29. | :59:34. | |
We had a close colleague of Angela Merkel today warning that it would | :59:35. | :59:42. | |
be bloody, our terms, if we leave. And why shouldn't they say that? | :59:43. | :59:45. | |
There's no point in issuing the threat afterwards. If they want to | :59:46. | :59:54. | |
threaten, now is the time. Doesn't mean he's not a good man just | :59:55. | :59:57. | |
because we haven't heard from him, but we haven't. It seems, I was | :59:58. | :00:01. | |
suggesting, that Michael Gove, in terms of which Cabinet ministers are | :00:02. | :00:06. | |
going to go with remain and which ones are going to go without, it | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
seems that Michael Gove is becoming the pivotal figure, here. | :00:10. | :00:15. | |
Suggestions that if he decides to go out, and apparently he is incredibly | :00:16. | :00:18. | |
anguished about this, Boris Johnson could well follow. If he doesn't, | :00:19. | :00:22. | |
they might not. Michael Gove is genuinely torn. Downing Street were | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
very confident at the beginning of this year that Michael Gove would be | :00:28. | :00:31. | |
with the Prime Minister. But anybody that has no Michael Gove, and are | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
used to be his colleague, he will know that in his heart of hearts he | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
would like to get Britain out of the European Union, it is as simple as | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
that. At he knows that if he campaigns to take Britain out of | :00:43. | :00:45. | |
Europe, what he is essentially doing is joining a campaign which, if | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
successful, will destroy David Cameron's Korea, and George | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
Osborne's and hand the Tory leadership to the two people in the | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
Conservative Party he loathes more than anybody else, Theresa May and | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
Boris Johnson. So he is torn. The thing about Boris Johnson, in his | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
heart of hearts, believes Britain should be in the European Union. But | :01:08. | :01:11. | |
there is one thing Boris Johnson believes more than that, which is | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
that Boris Johnson should be Prime Minister. Therefore he needs to do | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
what is best for that, which is why he needs this sort of thing. | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
Grateful for that blinding revelation that Boris Johnson wants | :01:26. | :01:29. | |
to be Prime Minister. If Cameron can keep Michael Gove on board, there | :01:30. | :01:34. | |
will be fewer defections other than the usual suspects? I think that's | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
right. Somebody described him to me as the big Domino and if he falls, | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
others could. Cameron is trying quite hard. He had Gove in last week | :01:43. | :01:49. | |
trying to persuade him. What they think they've got is an enlargement | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
from Gove that if he does opt to follow his conscience and vote out | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
he will not do much campaigning. I suspect he would do one interview | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
and sit the thing out, and they think if he is not out there leading | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
it, that will not do quite as much damage. We know Alan Johnson is | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
heading up the labour effort to stay in, but is Jeremy Corbyn really | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
going to campaign hard to stay in? Is the Labour Party going to spend | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
money on this campaign? I very much doubt it. It's not in his heart. His | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
instincts are to pick up the wrong issue, today there he is saying that | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
he thinks Cameron is wrong on immigration, we should have much | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
easier immigration, he shouldn't be trying to cut back the number of EU | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
migrants coming into the country. That is no way to win it, I presume | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
he knows it. It's very important that Labour voters are brought on | :02:41. | :02:48. | |
board. Mr Cameron needs them, too. Cameron really needs Labour voters. | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
It ought to be the great, strong, uniting message for Labour. | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
Virtually all Labour MPs are strongly in favour part from a | :02:57. | :03:00. | |
maverick hand. Quite the clear majority of the Parliamentary party. | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
It should have been a big contrast, Labour pro-European, Tories all over | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
the place. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn will muddy that. | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
final debate when he laid into the European Union. He hates the new | :03:13. | :03:29. | |
free trade area. He said he would support our membership but push four | :03:30. | :03:37. | |
reform from within. A few days before the big summit which is meant | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
to clinch it one way or the other are we heading for a June 23 | :03:42. | :03:46. | |
referendum? Almost certainly and thank God. So we can plan our summer | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
holidays and ministers and advisers feel the same. Never mind about the | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
needs of the nation. It looks like there will be some kind of deal and | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
they may give him a bit more in some areas. Cameron is determined to | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
press on with this, he does not want this hanging over his government. | :04:05. | :04:07. | |
Every Monday he Will have backed out of the | :04:08. | :06:30. | |
referendum, that is a factor in several politicians cut relations | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
right now. As I discovered, the front runners have been very coy | :06:36. | :06:42. | |
about it all. What is this about? A programme about the Tory leadership. | :06:43. | :06:56. | |
What on earth is the relevance of that to your | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
many millions of viewers when you consider that there is no, | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
thankfully, thankfully, and there is no vacancy | :07:03. | :07:03. | |
Nor is there going to be one for a very long time. | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky with some of the other | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
Apparently, Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, might | :07:14. | :07:16. | |
Speculation surrounds the Welsh Secretary, | :07:17. | :07:18. | |
Stephen Crabb, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan | :07:19. | :07:19. | |
once a female candidate, preferably her. | :07:20. | :07:21. | |
Defra Secretary, Liz Truss is repeated to be ambitious. | :07:22. | :07:23. | |
There are mutterings about Business Secretary, | :07:24. | :07:24. | |
Sajid Javid, but is he really angling to be the next | :07:25. | :07:27. | |
And is a leadership bid while Michael Gove is swinging over | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
which side to back in the referendum. | :07:33. | :07:34. | |
Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom is holding surgeries in the Commons | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
tearoom and a mystery member of the 2015 intake is rumoured | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
to have big plans and Employment Minister and arch | :07:43. | :07:44. | |
Eurosceptic Priti Patel is expected to have a profile-boosting | :07:45. | :07:46. | |
role in the Out Campaign and then there is Liam Fox. | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
This week, a poll on the website run by | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
Paul Goodman found that the former Defence Secretary was favourite | :07:58. | :07:59. | |
If you speculate that the hard right of Conservative Party membership, | :08:00. | :08:11. | |
is about a fifth of it, that sounds fair enough. | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
What was remarkable about his score was in fact how low it was, | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
it was the joint-lowest score for a leading | :08:20. | :08:21. | |
A lot of this is total nonsense, but it presages | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
potentially three years of Tory leadership gossip for the people | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
The Tory party would be in a leadership crisis but the country | :08:31. | :08:58. | |
would be in a huge political crisis. It would go on for years. It would | :08:59. | :09:04. | |
take at least smack years of very painful negotiations, maybe longer, | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
to get us out of these treaties. Nobody has done it before, nobody | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
knows what it would look like. Cameron would have to go. The | :09:14. | :09:20. | |
humiliation would be appalling. Osborne's chances would be shot to | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
pieces. By then, the country might have changed its mind and be upset | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
by having narrowly voted against for getting out. They might regret it. | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
Where does that leave whoever the future leader is? Do you agree? This | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
whole contest will boil down to several binary choices, in and out | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
of Europe, George Osborne and not George Osborne. Boris Johnson Atmos | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
Boris Johnson. Woman and man. -- or not Boris Johnson. Depending on the | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
circumstances we will find a leader. The young and old. 2015 intake are | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
getting bored about George Osborne is nearly inevitable and if not him, | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
Boris Johnson. They are thinking about running one of their own. | :10:05. | :10:07. | |
There are names that we haven't even considered that may enter the fray. | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
David Cameron might not go immediately but if he has to go he | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
would be the walking wounded through the summer and into the autumn. Mr | :10:16. | :10:21. | |
George Osborne probably the same. He kind of throws everything open. It | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
stars. There is a lot of chat amongst ministers about what happens | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
if we vote to leave -- it does. The Prime Minister says we trigger at | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
ago 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, two years negotiation and I should do | :10:36. | :10:41. | |
that -- at Article 50. One school of thought is that the prime and will | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
bring in David Davies as the Deputy Prime Minister and lead the exit | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
negotiations but I can't see that. I think that will be a leadership | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
contest and the defining feature is who is the best person to lead those | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
exit negotiations. And you would assume that a minister who has said | :11:00. | :11:02. | |
we should leave would be best placed. Maybe it will be possible to | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
have administered through said we should be in but maybe not wholly | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
involved in the remaining campaign. A good Eurosceptic track record. | :11:11. | :11:19. | |
Boris Johnson? Theresa May Possibly. Do you want Boris Johnson | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
negotiating the future of the treaty over two years? I think Boris | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
Johnson's position will be weaker than anyone things because of the | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
dithering. It is so transparent and nakedly ambitious. Whether he is | :11:31. | :11:38. | |
fought in or out. Anybody who is interested in politics feels | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
passionately in or out and he can't pretend to be waiting for these | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
minor negotiations on this fundamental issue that he has | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
tackled all his life. Even if we wrote to remain, what is your view | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
on what is sometimes called even if we vote to remain, the | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
Conservatives, whose heart would not have been in remaining, will want | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
someone to lead them after Mr Cameron, much later, who was Brexit? | :12:02. | :12:07. | |
There is a strong case for that. Most of the polls suggest that 70% | :12:08. | :12:13. | |
of the conservative grassroot is a Brexitier. There are polls which | :12:14. | :12:21. | |
show, to speak up for Boris, that he is wildly more popular than any | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
other conservative. There are conservative MPs who will look at | :12:25. | :12:27. | |
those polls, the one in the Independent this morning he is the | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
only main stream politician who has a positive rating. This is a 2-stage | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
process, the MPs put you on the ballot paper, the grassroots people | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
select you. Only two names go forward. You need to get past the | :12:43. | :12:49. | |
MPs and then make your case to the wider. If Boris gets through, to | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
being one of the final two, given his popularity with the Tory | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
grassroots, could change, it could be skin deep, I don't know, but | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
wouldn't he be an unstoppable? He doesn't have a huge backing at | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
Westminster, a lot of MPs don't know him. Will he survive the rigours of | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
a campaign? The interview on the Andrew Marr show, he faced awkward | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
questions about one of his friends. You assume he will get through that | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
process. We are talking about a contest after we have voted to stay | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
in. Important lesson from 1975, Harold Wilson was a massively | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
strengthened after that win. He moved Tony Benn at the crucial post | :13:30. | :13:32. | |
of industry because he was very strong. The Prime Minister will | :13:33. | :13:34. | |
pretty strong on that. Remember, if it's Sunday, | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:41. | :13:46. |