14/02/2016 Sunday Politics Wales


14/02/2016

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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics.

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David Cameron says a manifesto shouldn't be a "wish list,

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He says he's been ticking off the commitments his manifesto made,

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Well, today we launch our own Manifesto Tracker and we'll be

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talking to the minister responsible for implementing it.

:00:54.:00:57.

The Government wants to crack down on the gender pay gap.

:00:58.:01:00.

But is it really as bad as everyone seems to make out?

:01:01.:01:03.

We'll be talking to TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady.

:01:04.:01:08.

And we'll be asking who's wooing who

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in the putative Tory leadership contest?

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Later in the programme: The head of the British Army tells us there's

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been a culture of change in the forces, following a series

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And with me, as always, a match made in heaven.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Tim Shipman,

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who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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First, this morning let's turn to the situation in Syria.

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A nationwide "cessation of hostilities" is due

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But, despite that agreement, the prospects for peace

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The truce does not apply to the battle against what Russia

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calls terrorist targets and means it will continue its heavy bombing

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Meanwhile, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Northern Syria

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and the Turkish Foreign Minister has said his country is pondering

:02:12.:02:14.

This morning, the Foreign Secretary said Russia had to begin complying

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The situation in Aleppo is extremely worrying,

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the Russians are using carpet-bombing

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tactics, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas

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Yes, we demand that the Russians comply with their obligations under

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international law and their obligations under the UN

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Security Council resolutions that they have signed up to.

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Nick, you get a feeling that given this deal was signed in Munich, it

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it is living up to deal is signed in Munich reputations. When we hear the

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Foreign Secretary saying we demand Russian do something when they are

:03:02.:03:04.

creating facts on the ground and we are not, that will have a hollow

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ring. Russia is now. President's Asad air force. They have ensured

:03:12.:03:15.

that President Assad cannot lose this war but he cannot also win it.

:03:16.:03:20.

They have the air force but no forces on the ground. Now that

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President Assad cannot lose this war has changed the dynamics. We can

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whistle in the wind as much as we like but Russia is the reality and

:03:31.:03:35.

power. Sir Roderick Lyne, the former UK ambassador to Moscow was on radio

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five this morning and he said we should not get too carried away with

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quite how powerful Russia is, they don't have troops on the ground,

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they have a faltering economy and they are nervous about going into

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far because of the disaster of Afghanistan 35 years ago. They do

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have some troops on the ground, they have proxy forces on the ground from

:03:58.:04:03.

Hezbollah and the uranium National Guard. Although they can't take back

:04:04.:04:07.

the whole of Syria, they will take back enough of it -- Iranians

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National Guard. Making success in the south, the border with Turkey,

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controlling the Mediterranean coastline. When they have done that,

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they might be serious about peace talks. Then they are stuck with it.

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It is not clear if Vladimir Putin thinks beyond tomorrow. It is not

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clear what the long-term strategy could do. It could be like the

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Russian invasion of Afghanistan, an absolute disaster. President Assad

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is saying that they intend to take over the whole of the country,

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entirely unrealistic. There will be some sort of partition. What is

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happening is very frightening in the sense that everybody is fighting a

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proxy war, the Iranians and Saudis. The one thing that people keep

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saying is Barack Obama was so weak that it is quite unclear what he

:04:59.:05:01.

could have done. Perhaps he could have given Syria's weapons to the

:05:02.:05:05.

more moderate rebels. Hillary Clinton wanted him to do that in

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July 2012. She put a plan together along with the general and he turned

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it down. What would have happened is that they would be shooting down

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Russian planes with American weapons. Or Russia might not have

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gone to war. We don't know. Everything has a dynamic to it. This

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dynamic is leaving the west pretty much as onlookers. It is clear that

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at least in the short-term, Mr Putin will get back enough ground for

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Assad to then say we have got rid of a lot of these "Terrorists" because

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they are not Islamic state. It is now asked versus Islamic State.

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Exactly, we sound like the mouse that squeaked this morning. I

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disagree with Polly. One of the great powers in the world has now

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got very involved in a situation and the other hasn't. President Obama

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had options. He did not explore them to any sort of extent that it put

:06:02.:06:06.

off the Russians. Britain is left on the sidelines, waiting for a new US

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president, to get engaged in this issue and do something proactive.

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What could have been done that would have been any use at all? Either

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useless or worse than useless, stuck us in there... He did say he had

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chemical weapons and it was an important red Line. And he let them

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cross the red line. He totally ignored it. What would you have done

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that would have been useful? You could have set up a humanitarian

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safe haven and protected it with force and armed the rebels to deter

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the Russians and make it a situation where Assad could not continue. We

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now have a situation where Assad is now a fact of life, he is not going

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anywhere. There is not much you can do without you were serious

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involvement. I am glad we touched on Syria, it is an important developing

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story. Now, what's black and white

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and not read all over? Even if you did read it,

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would you be able to remember all the promises and whether

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the Government had delivered them? Today, we're launching our very

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own Manifesto Tracker, which charts the progress

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of the pledges Sort of like a blue virtual

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Edstone, or maybe not! Over the next four years,

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we'll be monitoring the Government's progress on all of the commitments

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the Conservatives made ahead of the 2015 general election

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in their manifesto, and a few big promises they made

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during the campaign. So, we've identified 161 pledges,

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and loaded them into our Manifesto We've grouped them into categories

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covering all the major areas of Government policy,

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from the constitution And we've given each

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of the promises a colour rating. Red signalling little

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or no progress so far. Amber when the Government

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has made some progress. Let's start by looking

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at the Conservative commitments As you can see they've made at least

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some progress on all of them. Easily the party's biggest promise

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here was to hold a referendum on Britain's membership

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of the EU by December 2017. We've marked that amber,

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to show that some progress The bill setting the vote has passed

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through Parliament and it's looking likely the poll will

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be held this year. The cornerstone of the Conservative

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election campaign last May was how they would handle the economy,

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and as you can see, that's where we've found the greatest

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number of promises. Let's look at one of the policies

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they identified as part of their plan to

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eliminate the deficit. That was to reduce the welfare

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bill by ?12 billion. Again, we've given

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that an amber rating. The savings were outlined

:09:11.:09:14.

in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement But it's too early to say

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if they'll all be achieved. When it comes to the constitution,

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the Government's made some progress But it promised to scrap

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the Human Rights Act, and replace it That gets a red rating,

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as although there have been reports something is in the pipeline,

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as yet there is no sign of the legislation

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required to introduce it. Some manifesto commitments have

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already been delivered in full. Like the introduction of English

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votes for English laws to give English MPs a veto over laws that

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only affect England. Other changes promised in

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the manifesto are less well known. Like the promise to recover

:10:07.:10:08.

?500 million from migrants and overseas visitors who use

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the NHS by the middle We will give that amber,

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because some new charges have already been introduced,

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and the Department of Health Let's add on the rest

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of the promises in each of the policy areas and have a look

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at how the government Taken together, of the 161

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Conservative election commitments, we think ten are red,

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111 are amber, and 40 are green. We'll be returning to the manifesto

:10:43.:10:51.

tracker every few months, but in the meantime you can find

:10:52.:10:53.

the full data on the politics And with us now the Cabinet Office

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Minister and Paymaster General, Matt Hancock, he oversees

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the implementation Welcome to the programme, do you

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regard this manifesto as a contract with the British people and do you

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intend to intimate it all? It is certainly the commitments on which

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we were elected. We take it incredibly seriously -- goals to

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implement it. That is the goal. We have got about a quarter delivered,

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we have had less than a year. In fact, I really welcome this scrutiny

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and this project you have been on. We will implement and publish our

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own plans and make sure that each individual manifesto commitment has

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an individual minister responsible for delivering it. And publish that.

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We will nationalise you and this process. You will nationalise us? We

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can't afford you, probably, but we will do this as a government. Let's

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see if you still want to do that at the end of this interview. Your

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manifesto promised to scrap Labour's Human Rights Act and replace it with

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a British Bill of Rights, and abolition Bill would be drafted

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within the first hundred days after the election. It didn't happen. Why?

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The work is in progress. Internally, we will publish it. Why have you not

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kept to the timetable? The timetable of the whole manifesto is to deliver

:12:27.:12:30.

within the parliament. You said this would be done, the draft bill within

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the first 100 days. Clearly, we will deliver against the commitment. I

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thought it was a bit harsh to call that read, I would call that Amber.

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It is not delivered yet. We called it red because the justice minister,

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Mr Bove, said the consultation had been delayed yet again. The question

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is what we deliver over the five-year parliament. -- Mr Gove. We

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are less than a year in and we have got one quarter delivered and that

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is one where there is work in progress but we are committed to

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doing it. The manifesto promised to make the UK's Supreme Court "The

:13:06.:13:11.

ultimate arbiter of human rights in the UK". That will not happen. This

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is all part of the same package which we have committed to

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delivering. We are less than a year in and we have a few years to go.

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Whatever the package, the Supreme Court will not be "The ultimate

:13:27.:13:31.

arbiter" on human rights, will it? That is part of the proposed

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package, as part of the replacement of the Human Rights Act. We will get

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to that. There is a bigger picture, which is making sure that we deliver

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on the overall set of commitments in the manifesto where we are making

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good progress. But, you can enhance the role of the Cyprian Court on

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human rights, I understand that. Maybe the British Bill of Rights

:13:55.:13:58.

will do their -- Supreme Court. But at the end of the day, the European

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Court of Human Rights is the ultimate arbiter. That is the

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factual legal situation. It all depends on the changes that you

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make. We will bring forward a package of changes to be able to

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deliver against these commitments in the Parliament. Mr Gove says we are

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not planning to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights.

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Let's see what happens when we published the proposals on this

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particular package. Immigration, probably your biggest fail, I would

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suggest. The 2050 manifesto repeated the pledge in the 2010 manifesto to

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get annual net migration down to tens of thousands -- 2015. After

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five years, far from getting it down, net migration reached a record

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336,000 last year, that is a spectacular failure. Clearly, this

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is a commitment. To get immigration down to tens of thousands, that

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remains the goal. But we haven't yet reached it. Presumably you did not

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call that green. No. It is red. That the commitment remains because we

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think it is reasonable to control immigration in this country, so that

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while some immigration can be very good for the economy and more

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broadly, actually it has got to be done at a reasonable level.

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It's not just that you didn't get it down enough, it's actually risen

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since you came to power. Why would you promise what you have failed

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dismally to deliver again? I think it is a reasonable goal. Clearly we

:15:29.:15:34.

put it in the manifesto for a reason, to get immigration down. And

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we are less than a year into the Parliament and we've got four years

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to go. Is it a goal or a pledge? Do you pledge to the British people

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today that net migration will be down to the tens of thousands by

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2020? Well I pledge to fulfil what was in the manifesto on which I and

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every other Conservative MPs was elected. Well that pledge was to get

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it down to the tens of thousands. It was meant to be in the tens of

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thousands by 2015, it is 346,000, is there a pledge that it will be down

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to the tens of thousands by 2020? There is a whole series of actions

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that we are taking, not least the EU renegotiation to try to tackle

:16:20.:16:24.

immigration and make sure that it's brought down to a reasonable level.

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Again there is a broader point, of the 160 odd commitments that you are

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measuring, delivering an accord of them, of course some are quicker

:16:35.:16:37.

than others to deliver on, it's fair to say. But the whole point of

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having the manifesto and tracking it as we are doing is to make sure we

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know where we are up to. Lets come onto the European negotiations, that

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was in the manifesto. The manifesto promised several key things in the

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renegotiation, a four-year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits,

:16:58.:17:02.

a new residency requirement for social housing, and no child benefit

:17:03.:17:06.

for EU migrants if their children live abroad. The draft deal contains

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none of these things. Well, firstly, as you say, the centrepiece of our

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European policy was to have the referendum, and we will be having

:17:20.:17:22.

the referendum. Although you call that Amber it is certainly going to

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happen. I understand that but none of the things you said we would get

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to vote on in this referendum have been delivered. We then sat out --

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set out what we wanted to negotiate and that negotiation is not

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complete. We have a lot of work to do this week to get the best

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possible deal we can. I hope we will have a good deal and be able to vote

:17:47.:17:49.

to stay in a reformed Europe. There is a version of the ban on EU

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migrants benefits, there is not no child benefits, now there will be 28

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different child benefits that Britain will pay but there is no

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mention of residency requirement for social housing, no mention of that

:18:05.:18:10.

in the deal, so that has gone? Look, we don't know the outcome of this

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negotiation until the end of this week. There is a week of hard work

:18:14.:18:17.

to get the deal. But there is a bigger picture here. Social housing

:18:18.:18:23.

is not on the agenda? Let's see what we get in this deal over the next

:18:24.:18:29.

week. But there's a bigger point here, which is that we said we'd

:18:30.:18:33.

have the renegotiation, lots and lots of people said you are never

:18:34.:18:36.

going to get these things on the table. A question of in work

:18:37.:18:41.

benefits, child benefit, we were told you couldn't even put that on

:18:42.:18:46.

the agenda. The discussion in Europe this week is exactly how far we go

:18:47.:18:50.

on those. People said that we couldn't deliver anything in this

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space and we've managed to deliver already the draft deal, and we will

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see where we end up. But not what was in the manifesto. We will see

:18:58.:19:01.

where we end up at the end of this week. We will indeed. Not

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necessarily next week but in the weeks ahead we will be coming back

:19:06.:19:09.

to go through this. Onto the economy, you put in place a charter

:19:10.:19:12.

for budget responsibility which commits you to running a surplus, a

:19:13.:19:18.

legal obligation as well as a policy. The in situ for fiscal

:19:19.:19:21.

studies says that will require tax rises or spending cuts as yet

:19:22.:19:24.

unannounced, do you agree? Not in the latest financial forecast put

:19:25.:19:30.

out by the office for budget responsible to who independently

:19:31.:19:32.

advise on these, and we have a budget in just over a month's time

:19:33.:19:36.

so we will see what the figures say, then. Clearly in the latest forecast

:19:37.:19:40.

from the government, yes, we have that surplus. You have not hit a

:19:41.:19:47.

surplus. We have hit it in the forecast. And they change. They do,

:19:48.:19:54.

as the economy changes. On that economic front there was an awful

:19:55.:19:59.

lot in the manifesto on that, it is all about economic security,

:20:00.:20:02.

generating jobs, in the same way that the national Security ones were

:20:03.:20:06.

all about national security. And those were the two elements at the

:20:07.:20:09.

heart of this manifesto that we were elected on. I would say that we are

:20:10.:20:14.

delivering very strongly on both. In terms of the big picture of what you

:20:15.:20:18.

are getting from the message that we said we were going to deliver. Let

:20:19.:20:22.

me come down to the smaller but still very important picture. You

:20:23.:20:26.

have a legal obligation to reach a surplus by 2020. If, to reach that

:20:27.:20:30.

surplus, you had to raise taxes, would you? Look, much as I'd love

:20:31.:20:37.

to, I'm not going to set out tax policy on Sunday morning. To meet

:20:38.:20:42.

the legal obligation, if it required tax increases, would there be tax

:20:43.:20:45.

increases? We've set out the plans and the plans hit a surplus. We did

:20:46.:20:49.

that in the Autumn Statement in November. Clearly the economy

:20:50.:20:55.

changes all the time, internationally, people have seen

:20:56.:20:58.

falls in the stock market in the last few months. But we will have a

:20:59.:21:04.

budget in more than a month's time. But I voted to have that surplus and

:21:05.:21:08.

that is clearly what we will set out to do. You promised a lower tax

:21:09.:21:14.

society. Yes. Yet on the forecast, the overall tax burden is rising as

:21:15.:21:20.

a percentage of GDP and on the forecast, not the buoyancy but extra

:21:21.:21:24.

tax that you have introduced will be ?50 billion higher. So you have

:21:25.:21:28.

previous on this, you could raise taxes again because you already

:21:29.:21:32.

have? Clearly there are some areas where we have tightened things up,

:21:33.:21:37.

especially on tax avoidance. We took an extra ?5 billion from tax

:21:38.:21:44.

avoidance measures. And what about the billions in addition to that? We

:21:45.:21:47.

have reduced the tax burden especially on people in lower wage

:21:48.:21:51.

jobs, they are going to get the national minimum wage but we are

:21:52.:21:54.

well on the way to the manifesto commitment of making sure you don't

:21:55.:21:58.

have to pay any income taxed until you make ?12,500. We have made

:21:59.:22:05.

progress but there is more to do. The manifesto talks about reducing

:22:06.:22:08.

the tax relief on pension contributions for people earning

:22:09.:22:13.

more than ?150,000, people on 45%, the highest income tax band, you are

:22:14.:22:21.

going to cut tax relief on their pension contributions. If you were

:22:22.:22:24.

to also cut the tax relief of those on the 40% rate, that would be

:22:25.:22:31.

breaching the manifesto? There we've done what we said we would do in the

:22:32.:22:35.

manifesto. We've followed the manifesto clearly in terms of the

:22:36.:22:40.

commitment that it made. Outside the manifesto there's always going to be

:22:41.:22:45.

other things that you do. On pension tax review were explicit that it

:22:46.:22:49.

would be those in the 45% wouldn't get it, you didn't mention any other

:22:50.:22:53.

bracket, the imprecation is that it's only the 45%. If you took away

:22:54.:22:59.

tax relief from the 40% taxpayers that would be broken manifesto

:23:00.:23:03.

commitment? That's not how I see it, you can add things to the manifesto.

:23:04.:23:08.

Look at the whole reform programme a massive reform programme which was

:23:09.:23:11.

not in our manifesto because we've built it up as a proposal since

:23:12.:23:15.

then. Likewise the Prime Ministerspeech on social mobility

:23:16.:23:22.

and an tackling an just inequalities -- an just inequalities. We've done

:23:23.:23:28.

a huge amount of that on the autumn. Delivering on the manifesto

:23:29.:23:35.

commitments is absolutely essential. But it is not the only thing you do

:23:36.:23:38.

in government because you respond to events. But the purpose of this

:23:39.:23:43.

interview is to hold your manifesto to account. Hunting, when will you

:23:44.:23:47.

give Parliament the chance to repeal the hunting act. We are committed to

:23:48.:23:50.

doing that. When? In this Parliament. We looked at doing it

:23:51.:23:56.

early on. You dropped that. We decided not to do it then, but we

:23:57.:24:01.

are committed to its. You set a target of ?1 trillion of exports by

:24:02.:24:05.

2020, most forecasters including your own oh BR say you will be at

:24:06.:24:12.

least ?350 billion short. Can we agree that you will not hit that

:24:13.:24:16.

target? It's fair to say that it is stretching target, but it remains

:24:17.:24:22.

our target, our aspiration. But you will miss it. There is an awful lot

:24:23.:24:29.

of work going into achieving it. Thank you for that, come back and we

:24:30.:24:33.

will see the progress in the months ahead. Look forward to it.

:24:34.:24:35.

And remember if you want to see how the government is doing

:24:36.:24:37.

in detail our manifesto tracker is available for you to peruse

:24:38.:24:40.

On Friday, new measures to tackle the pay gap between genders

:24:41.:24:47.

From 2018, companies with more than 250 employees will have

:24:48.:24:57.

to publish the differences in salary between men and women.

:24:58.:25:00.

Businesses failing to address the problem will be named

:25:01.:25:02.

Here's what Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan had to say.

:25:03.:25:07.

Transparency about the gender pay gap in companies and public sector

:25:08.:25:09.

organisations is going to be very important in driving behaviour.

:25:10.:25:15.

So we are going to require companies, under the regulations,

:25:16.:25:19.

companies of over 250 employees, to publish their gender pay gap

:25:20.:25:22.

We, as a government, will then compile those league tables.

:25:23.:25:30.

It will be two fold, one, companies will hopefully,

:25:31.:25:33.

and we expect from the response we have,

:25:34.:25:36.

to think a lot harder about where women are in their workforce.

:25:37.:25:39.

How they are distributed, what they are being paid.

:25:40.:25:41.

But it will also drive applications to work in certain

:25:42.:25:44.

organisations because I think women will look and see what is the gender

:25:45.:25:47.

pay gap in this organisation and is this somewhere

:25:48.:25:49.

And with us now, General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady.

:25:50.:25:53.

Welcome back. We know there is a gender pay gap. In some age groups,

:25:54.:26:02.

not all, but still in some age groups. Where is the evidence that

:26:03.:26:06.

it is a result of dissemination, of employers not paying properly, as

:26:07.:26:13.

opposed to lifestyle and choices? We still do have this pretty crazy

:26:14.:26:21.

situation where women have Giroud and 80p for everyone pound that men

:26:22.:26:25.

do across the economy. -- where women earn 80p for every pound that

:26:26.:26:29.

men do. This is a welcome step, this initiative, but it is a very small

:26:30.:26:34.

step. It is about reporting, not about telling us why this is going

:26:35.:26:37.

on, not coming up with actions to deal with it. When you dig down from

:26:38.:26:41.

the headline figure, and you have just used one, you begin to see some

:26:42.:26:45.

quite deep-seated cultural issues, not just a matter of economics. The

:26:46.:26:50.

labour market study shows that men tend to work in occupations that pay

:26:51.:26:53.

more, that's been a historic thing. And women in jobs that pay less. For

:26:54.:26:58.

example men in construction, women in retail. Men in computer

:26:59.:27:02.

programming, women in nursing. That is one of the explanations for the

:27:03.:27:07.

page gap. There is certainly still big job separation, but one of the

:27:08.:27:13.

questions we must ask is, is it case of equal values? People paying for

:27:14.:27:19.

the work of equal value. It is illegal to pay anybody less than a

:27:20.:27:26.

man is getting or vice versa, equal pay for equal jobs. For example, why

:27:27.:27:32.

is looking after children considered to be less valuable than mending a

:27:33.:27:36.

car? The problem is, in order for women to prove it, they've got to be

:27:37.:27:40.

able to take employment tribunal claims, and of course we've seen

:27:41.:27:42.

this government introduce very significant fees that have massively

:27:43.:27:48.

reduced the number of women being able to take pay and six

:27:49.:27:52.

dissemination claims. Is on the gender pay gap really a generational

:27:53.:27:57.

matter, and it might be resolving itself? I'd like to show you this

:27:58.:28:01.

chart, here, which looks at different age groups. For women aged

:28:02.:28:06.

40 to 49, there is a gap, it's coming down but there is still a

:28:07.:28:10.

substantial gap. For younger women in the 22 to 29, there is no pay

:28:11.:28:14.

gap, indeed there is some evidence now that the gender pay gap is the

:28:15.:28:18.

other way among younger people than it is amongst men. What I think it

:28:19.:28:25.

shows you is that the real problem kicks in when women have babies.

:28:26.:28:31.

Yes. That's when women are much more likely to work part-time, much more

:28:32.:28:35.

likely to need nurseries, and as we get older and we are looking after

:28:36.:28:38.

elderly parents, too. Elder care as well. Some of those public service

:28:39.:28:44.

cuts are hitting our sure start centres and care for the elderly. I

:28:45.:28:48.

think you hit on something, there. You can begin to see the return of

:28:49.:28:53.

the gender pay gap as women hit their late 20s or early 30s, because

:28:54.:28:57.

the average age that women have their first child is 28 and a half.

:28:58.:29:03.

So that suggests that the policy response will have to be quite

:29:04.:29:07.

sophisticated to get rid of a later developing pay gap. Stopping cuts on

:29:08.:29:11.

this is would help but also helping dads as well. A lot of men nowadays

:29:12.:29:15.

want to be more involved with their children but they need more paid

:29:16.:29:20.

paternity to be able to do that. I want to show you another chart that

:29:21.:29:26.

suggests there are developers. This shows you a figure that is not

:29:27.:29:32.

widely known, there are now every year 100,000 more women applying for

:29:33.:29:36.

university than men. 100,000 more. Women from poor backgrounds are 50%

:29:37.:29:42.

more likely to go to university than men. Women now take most of the

:29:43.:29:46.

first in medicine and law, two professions that are pretty well

:29:47.:29:52.

paid. Again, isn't this sense that, even in the later years, now, the

:29:53.:29:56.

gender pay gap could begin to resolve itself?

:29:57.:30:00.

I really hope so the TUC analysis shows that at this rate of change it

:30:01.:30:07.

would take another 45 years. No, I looked at these figures. Frances

:30:08.:30:14.

O'Grady, you took one year of the pay gap, which strode it came down

:30:15.:30:21.

by 0.2%. Dodt which showed. If you had taken the last ten years it

:30:22.:30:26.

still takes too long but it is not 47 years, that was a propaganda

:30:27.:30:30.

figure. You can't do a trend on one year. Most people agree we need bold

:30:31.:30:35.

action to change it. Given we have agreed that it is a complicated

:30:36.:30:39.

picture and now becomes an issue primarily for women who have taken

:30:40.:30:43.

time off and then go back into the workforce again, get me one thing

:30:44.:30:48.

that the government could do that would stop this gender pay gap

:30:49.:30:53.

re-emerging in their 30s and 40s? Stop cuts to nurseries. Provide a

:30:54.:30:58.

proper system of care for old people, that allows women and men to

:30:59.:31:02.

combine those caring responsibilities with a responsible

:31:03.:31:06.

job. That is what would really make... I can see how it would help.

:31:07.:31:10.

It is about progression and people feeling they can go for that

:31:11.:31:13.

promotion or training course that would get them a better job. And

:31:14.:31:17.

having the confidence to do it, that their life won't fall apart if they

:31:18.:31:23.

tried. If the TUC wanted to be ahead of the curve, should you not now be

:31:24.:31:27.

giving a lot more attention to the growing underperformance of young

:31:28.:31:31.

males, particularly from poorer backgrounds in education and the

:31:32.:31:34.

workforce? That is a looming problem. Believe you me, we do, we

:31:35.:31:41.

do. We've been fighting very hard for not just more apprenticeships

:31:42.:31:45.

but real quality apprenticeships. Equal opportunities for all. That

:31:46.:31:50.

would help. There are a lot of young men who want to be as involved in

:31:51.:31:54.

bringing up their children as their partners do. Why doesn't the TUC

:31:55.:31:58.

practice what it preaches when it comes to gender equality? Only three

:31:59.:32:02.

of the largest ten unions are led by women even though most unions have a

:32:03.:32:07.

female majority membership. Being a national offices in the unions are

:32:08.:32:11.

lower than the percentage of the night union members. Eight out of

:32:12.:32:16.

ten. And seven out of ten unions have women where they are

:32:17.:32:21.

significantly underrepresented on the national executive. Of the TUC

:32:22.:32:25.

delegation is. Even though women are majority membership. As you know,

:32:26.:32:29.

the picture has changed dramatically over the last few years. We do just

:32:30.:32:33.

have three in ten union leaders elected on average. That is a big

:32:34.:32:39.

change, it is a lot better than the board room and a hell of a lot

:32:40.:32:42.

better than many sat around the Cabinet table. It is still not that

:32:43.:32:53.

great. 74% female membership. Only 70% full time. 75% TUC delegation

:32:54.:33:02.

and only 28 on the TUC. Led by a woman general secretary. You have a

:33:03.:33:07.

way to go. For the first time in history it is 50-50. We are

:33:08.:33:10.

committed. We want to work with businesses who want to make that

:33:11.:33:15.

change. I am delighted to say. He loves unions. Thank you.

:33:16.:33:19.

It's just gone 11:30am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:33:20.:33:21.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:33:22.:33:24.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead.

:33:25.:33:40.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:33:41.:33:42.

The head of the British Army tells us there's

:33:43.:33:45.

been a culture of change in the forces following a series

:33:46.:33:48.

And the day for lovers, we look at that peculiar

:33:49.:33:51.

political coupling up - coalitions.

:33:52.:33:52.

But first, the head of the British Army is a man

:33:53.:33:55.

Making sure soldiers are ready at a moment's notice to be deployed

:33:56.:33:59.

to every corner of the world and to be put in harm's way.

:34:00.:34:03.

But he's also a man with a duty of care for soldiers when they're

:34:04.:34:06.

And it's fair to say that on that front, there have been failures

:34:07.:34:10.

which have affected soldiers from Wales.

:34:11.:34:12.

We've spoken with General Sir Nicholas Carter about that

:34:13.:34:14.

and the possibility of troops on the ground in Syria.

:34:15.:34:17.

The man in charge of the Army, General Sir Nicolas Carter,

:34:18.:34:20.

has served in Northern Ireland and Kosovo and commanded brigades

:34:21.:34:23.

He took over as the Chief of the General Staff

:34:24.:34:31.

He is in charge of an army which has had a difficult

:34:32.:34:35.

Shortcomings have been highlighted on several occasions.

:34:36.:34:39.

Earlier this year, a coroner found the Army's chain

:34:40.:34:41.

of command failed to prevent unlawful physical punishments known

:34:42.:34:44.

as beastings, which led to the death of a soldier,

:34:45.:34:47.

Private Gavin Williams from Caerphilly.

:34:48.:34:50.

In 2013, three SAS reservists died on a

:34:51.:34:54.

training match in the Brecon Beacons.

:34:55.:34:56.

According to the coroner, they died as a result of neglect.

:34:57.:35:00.

The inquest into the death of Cheryl James from Llangollen

:35:01.:35:03.

who died in the Deepcut Army barracks 20 years ago,

:35:04.:35:06.

Our correspondent Daniel Davies began

:35:07.:35:14.

by asking General Carter about Wales's importance

:35:15.:35:15.

Wales is very important to the British Army,

:35:16.:35:18.

not least because it punches well above its weight in terms

:35:19.:35:21.

of the soldiers it sends as but also because we've got a lot

:35:22.:35:24.

We've got a lot of ranges, we've got people who serve

:35:25.:35:28.

That relationship with the community is really important to us.

:35:29.:35:31.

In Wales recently we have had some high profile inquests of service

:35:32.:35:36.

people who have died at base or in training exercises.

:35:37.:35:43.

The Army has been severely criticised on a couple

:35:44.:35:45.

Does that dent the reputation of the Army in Wales?

:35:46.:35:49.

I think the two instances you refer to are both ones

:35:50.:35:53.

I would like to say I think it would be difficult

:35:54.:35:58.

for those sorts of things to happen again because we have

:35:59.:36:00.

changed our culture, we have recently issued a new code

:36:01.:36:03.

of leadership which is something I feel very strongly about.

:36:04.:36:05.

I would be surprised if it is occurred again.

:36:06.:36:07.

I'm not saying it can't happen because of course it can.

:36:08.:36:10.

We have put in place a lot of different processes to make sure

:36:11.:36:13.

those sorts of things don't happen in the future.

:36:14.:36:15.

But the case of the three men who died in the Brecon Beacons

:36:16.:36:18.

on SAS training exercise, that wasn't that long

:36:19.:36:22.

No. I wasn't really referring to that.

:36:23.:36:26.

I was referring to the other instance which is in the media

:36:27.:36:30.

No, and that is also extremely dispiriting when something

:36:31.:36:33.

It does call all those responsible to have a really good look

:36:34.:36:38.

at the way they adhere to what are really quite well

:36:39.:36:40.

thought through drills and procedures to how you handle

:36:41.:36:43.

If someone were to look at that case and others

:36:44.:36:47.

and come to the conclusion that being in the Army is not just

:36:48.:36:50.

dangerous in battle but as an employer, it's not safe,

:36:51.:36:54.

I think you have to go back and look at when things

:36:55.:36:59.

I recognise the Brecon thing happened recently but the other

:37:00.:37:02.

instances that have been in the media, one happened ten years

:37:03.:37:05.

ago and the other happened 20 years ago.

:37:06.:37:07.

What I would say is, we are an employer which now we pull

:37:08.:37:10.

very highly in terms of our approval rating.

:37:11.:37:13.

For one or two very small things that have occurred,

:37:14.:37:17.

I don't think you can knock the whole of the Army's reputation

:37:18.:37:20.

But you are trying to change the culture of the Army in other

:37:21.:37:24.

ways and recruit from communities that are underrepresented.

:37:25.:37:28.

Does that not in itself suggest the Army has got a problem?

:37:29.:37:31.

The Army's got a maximise talent and that is

:37:32.:37:35.

With the economy and change in demography

:37:36.:37:39.

and all that goes with that, we are in a position where we have

:37:40.:37:42.

got to become a very modern employer.

:37:43.:37:44.

That requires us to draw from all of Britain's society

:37:45.:37:48.

Part of that, of course, is having a career structure

:37:49.:37:52.

which is flexible and which all sorts of people can serve in.

:37:53.:37:55.

It's about demonstrating the fact we have, we

:37:56.:37:58.

are the largest employer of apprentices in Europe which a lot

:37:59.:38:02.

We offer a career for all sorts of different

:38:03.:38:07.

people in all sorts of different ways which is something that perhaps

:38:08.:38:10.

In terms of our culture, it is about recognising we do have

:38:11.:38:15.

That leadership on operations, I think, is second to none.

:38:16.:38:19.

What I want to do is to make sure that leadership style is translated

:38:20.:38:22.

into the way we lead in peacetime as well.

:38:23.:38:24.

How do you do that given the damage the Army's reputation has

:38:25.:38:28.

I would question the extent to which the Army's

:38:29.:38:33.

It doesn't stand up when you poll and indeed the most recent poll

:38:34.:38:38.

would show as an institution we are liked by some 90%.

:38:39.:38:42.

That was our approval rating which I think the BBC would die

:38:43.:38:45.

The plain fact is we have a good reputation and we will hang

:38:46.:38:49.

All organisations have to adapt and we have to adapt

:38:50.:38:52.

because the generation that is joining the Army

:38:53.:38:54.

now is a different generation to my generation and probably you.

:38:55.:38:57.

The upshot of that is, we have to think hard about how

:38:58.:39:00.

we lead them and the opportunities we provide them.

:39:01.:39:03.

That is why it is healthy to look at our culture,

:39:04.:39:05.

all organisations need to do that all the time.

:39:06.:39:07.

We have world-class junior leaders and I want them to continue

:39:08.:39:11.

There is a big military decision facing British

:39:12.:39:16.

politicians at the moment, whether to renew the nuclear weapons

:39:17.:39:20.

The answer is a political decision, it's not a decision I'm involved in.

:39:21.:39:26.

I think the government has made it clear

:39:27.:39:28.

But there could be another government after the next

:39:29.:39:31.

election and a party, the Labour Party, that hasn't made

:39:32.:39:34.

Do you not give them advice on what you think Britain needs?

:39:35.:39:39.

I might well give them advice when necessary but the fact

:39:40.:39:42.

of the matter is your question is hypothetical.

:39:43.:39:43.

We have the government of today and I think

:39:44.:39:46.

On the threat that Britain faces, what are

:39:47.:39:52.

those threats and is the Army up to facing them in an era of cuts?

:39:53.:40:00.

It might have been but you probably haven't spotted that we had

:40:01.:40:05.

a defence review that culminated in November last year

:40:06.:40:07.

and the Chancellor in July of last year made

:40:08.:40:10.

a commitment to peg defence spending to 2% of GDP.

:40:11.:40:13.

That represents, over the course of this Parliament,

:40:14.:40:15.

an uplift in resources which is very positive.

:40:16.:40:18.

Rather, we've got a government that is investing in its

:40:19.:40:22.

That is having a big impact on the morale of our Armed

:40:23.:40:26.

Forces, in particularly the Army where we're seeing retention

:40:27.:40:28.

But to answer your question on threats, the answer is I cannot

:40:29.:40:33.

remember a time in my lifetime where the world

:40:34.:40:36.

For the head of the Army that means you've got to try and back some

:40:37.:40:42.

horses in terms of what you train to do.

:40:43.:40:44.

Ultimately, it comes down to talented people being able

:40:45.:40:48.

to adaptable because pound to a brass farthing

:40:49.:40:50.

we will get it wrong the first time and the trick is adapting quickly

:40:51.:40:54.

Does Britain need to have troops on the ground in Syria

:40:55.:40:58.

I think it is very difficult to see how that'll play out.

:40:59.:41:05.

Of course, what we need to do when we deploy

:41:06.:41:07.

troops is to be very clear about the purpose of why

:41:08.:41:10.

You can see that in all sorts of places across the world.

:41:11.:41:14.

Is that the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan

:41:15.:41:16.

where you served in both those countries, where perhaps the end

:41:17.:41:21.

goal of the mission wasn't clear enough?

:41:22.:41:23.

No, I think the goal of the mission was clear enough.

:41:24.:41:25.

It was difficult to deliver and I think the British Army did

:41:26.:41:28.

extraordinarily well given the circumstances.

:41:29.:41:30.

Now, did you get a card this morning?

:41:31.:41:38.

And the idea of coupling up is also on the minds of AMs as it's possible

:41:39.:41:44.

a coalition of some sort will need to be formed after

:41:45.:41:47.

Cemlyn Davies now on what kind of new political partnerships

:41:48.:41:52.

The roses are out, the fizz is on ice.

:41:53.:42:10.

Grand gestures of commitment will be the order of the day.

:42:11.:42:13.

There will be sickly displays of affection too.

:42:14.:42:17.

New relationships could blossom, old flames may be rekindled.

:42:18.:42:22.

And if the opinion polls are anything to go by

:42:23.:42:25.

the dating game may still be enforcing after May's election.

:42:26.:42:30.

They suggest no party will win an overall majority and Labour,

:42:31.:42:34.

who have governed without a majority for

:42:35.:42:36.

the past five years, could end up with fewer seats

:42:37.:42:40.

prompting the party to turn its back on the single life

:42:41.:42:44.

Labour have previously held hands with the Lib Dems and more

:42:45.:42:53.

Valerie Livingstone is a political analyst

:42:54.:42:59.

I think Labour will campaign incredibly hard to get

:43:00.:43:04.

as close to that 30 mark as possible.

:43:05.:43:07.

If they don't quite get there and the Liberal Democrats

:43:08.:43:09.

maintain a few seats in the Senedd, they might look to a coalition

:43:10.:43:13.

Kirsty Williams could be brought into government for a lower cost

:43:14.:43:18.

perhaps to the Welsh Labour Government than any other party.

:43:19.:43:22.

A coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour could prove quite

:43:23.:43:28.

Plaid Cymru would be the third largest party

:43:29.:43:32.

in the Assembly based on current polling

:43:33.:43:33.

and they would demand seats in the Cabinet.

:43:34.:43:37.

They may also make it difficult for Labour ministers to get

:43:38.:43:40.

through a number of key policy such as the M4 relief road.

:43:41.:43:43.

Do you think that either of those scenarios would lead to a stable

:43:44.:43:48.

government that would last the next five years?

:43:49.:43:52.

I think either a Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition or a

:43:53.:43:55.

Plaid-Cymru Labour coalition is likely to be quite a stable

:43:56.:43:58.

arrangement particularly when we factor in Ukip

:43:59.:44:01.

who are going to be in the Senedd for the first time after this

:44:02.:44:05.

Because no party will want to be seen to destabilise

:44:06.:44:08.

the government when Ukip are the opposition force

:44:09.:44:11.

That of a rainbow coalition made up of Plaid Cymru,

:44:12.:44:17.

It has nearly happened before and last week it emerged Plaid Cymru

:44:18.:44:24.

and the Lib Dems had already been on pre-election

:44:25.:44:26.

dates with the Greens although any talk of a lasting relationship has

:44:27.:44:31.

Plaid Cymru would struggle to enter into any arrangement with the

:44:32.:44:36.

Leader Leanne Wood has already ruled out a coalition

:44:37.:44:42.

But strange things happen after elections and we may

:44:43.:44:47.

see a change of leadership either with the Conservatives or

:44:48.:44:49.

That might lead to changes down the line but at the moment it

:44:50.:44:53.

It has been suggested that 20 seats, a third of the total,

:44:54.:44:58.

could be enough for a party to try governing alone.

:44:59.:45:02.

The SNP did just that with a similar proportion

:45:03.:45:05.

of the Scottish Parliament seats in 2007.

:45:06.:45:09.

The people of Scotland know that this is a minority government

:45:10.:45:11.

and operates in a Parliament therefore different any other

:45:12.:45:14.

elected in the history of this Parliament.

:45:15.:45:18.

It wasn't really expected to last that long

:45:19.:45:20.

but it did and it gave the SNP a toe hold on power they then grew

:45:21.:45:24.

I suspect the situation in Cardiff Bay is very difference

:45:25.:45:30.

because we are looking at Labour being the

:45:31.:45:32.

They have been in government for a very, very long time,

:45:33.:45:36.

as long as anybody can remember.

:45:37.:45:37.

If Labour were to win 20 seats in the Senedd

:45:38.:45:42.

We would be looking at a leadership election so no,

:45:43.:45:46.

I don't think they would manage it on 20 seats but if they were up

:45:47.:45:49.

to 27 28, minority government would be an option for them.

:45:50.:45:55.

Short of a formal relationship, a more casual

:45:56.:45:57.

understanding could also help a party govern without a majority.

:45:58.:46:02.

Confidence and supply is an arrangement we might see

:46:03.:46:04.

But I wonder if we would almost have that without it being spoken about?

:46:05.:46:12.

Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats won't want to be

:46:13.:46:15.

seen to side with the Conservatives and Ukip and therefore Labour can

:46:16.:46:19.

The picture will be much clearer on the 6th of May when we will know

:46:20.:46:27.

Like the most romantic partnership,

:46:28.:46:32.

So much for who might get together but what's it like when you're

:46:33.:46:41.

trying to form a new coalition and indeed when you're

:46:42.:46:45.

Rhodri Morgan, as we saw, formed coalitions with both

:46:46.:46:48.

the Lib Dems and Plaid during his time in charge,

:46:49.:46:51.

while Jenny Willott was a minister in the Conservative-Lib Dem

:46:52.:46:53.

Thank you both for coming in to discuss this. Rhodri Morgan, is a

:46:54.:47:07.

man who has led to coalitions, what is it like? Is it a lots more

:47:08.:47:13.

difficult than minority government? No, not a lot more difficult than

:47:14.:47:17.

minority government. You have a reasonable assurance that you are

:47:18.:47:23.

going to get your budget through and that is of an overwhelming

:47:24.:47:26.

importance. How you going to get your budget through? With Carwyn

:47:27.:47:31.

Jones at the moment, he has relied on the fact he could do a deal with

:47:32.:47:35.

the Lib Dems to the budget through even though he's not in coalition

:47:36.:47:40.

because he is one vote short. He is more settled because it got that

:47:41.:47:45.

certainty. It is not on a piece of paper. You can agree a programme

:47:46.:47:50.

when you are in a coalition that is the key thing. You need to write a

:47:51.:47:54.

Bible on what we have agreeing on over the next two and half years in

:47:55.:47:58.

the first case with the Lib Dems in the year 2000, and for years in the

:47:59.:48:04.

case Plaid Cymru in 2007. You need to set out as much as you possibly

:48:05.:48:07.

can in advance and you not when to get any arguments popping up in 2008

:48:08.:48:14.

or 2009. You have shaken hands on it and then it'll flow throughout the

:48:15.:48:18.

budget and the main items of policy will all be in there. Jenny Willott,

:48:19.:48:22.

as somebody who is in the junior partnership side of it, is it more

:48:23.:48:27.

difficult for the junior partner rather than the larger partner in a

:48:28.:48:32.

coalition? Depends on what you mean by more difficult. Rhodri Morgan is

:48:33.:48:37.

right. One of the real strengths of having a coalition is you negotiate

:48:38.:48:41.

a programme in the beginning and that means you both know where you

:48:42.:48:45.

are going to be heading and you both know what you are going to deliver.

:48:46.:48:50.

That is committed to from the start. It is an advantage for the public

:48:51.:48:53.

because they know what they are going to expect over the term of

:48:54.:48:57.

that parliament or the Assembly which means they can hold their

:48:58.:49:00.

politicians more easily to account for the labelling it or not. Whether

:49:01.:49:05.

it can be very difficult for the junior partner is you don't get the

:49:06.:49:11.

credit for things that are your ideas and the things you have pushed

:49:12.:49:13.

through and made happen. You always get the bane for the popular

:49:14.:49:20.

decisions. -- the blame. That is the case whenever you are, it happens in

:49:21.:49:24.

mainland Europe, the UK and that is a real challenge because you don't

:49:25.:49:31.

have the profile. You can't shout loud enough to claim credit for the

:49:32.:49:36.

things that are yours. There is a reason for that. When you other

:49:37.:49:39.

major party and I'm lucky enough that on both occasions we were the

:49:40.:49:43.

major part of the coalition, what you do is to ensure that you don't

:49:44.:49:48.

take anything out of your manifesto. You allow the minority partner to

:49:49.:49:54.

add to the commitments you have made in your manifesto but you don't

:49:55.:49:59.

anything out of yours. You add. Whereas the minority partner may

:50:00.:50:03.

have to drop something that is in their manifesto and that is what

:50:04.:50:06.

causes the difficulty. That is not Mrs is certainly true. In the

:50:07.:50:11.

coalition agreement in Westminster it was three quarters of the Lib Dem

:50:12.:50:17.

manifesto ended up in the coalition. The Conservatives dropped a huge

:50:18.:50:20.

amount. There was a lot of stuff that was quite unpopular in their

:50:21.:50:28.

manifesto they could do it. Does that make those initial days between

:50:29.:50:32.

the election and forming a government, it was five days in your

:50:33.:50:38.

case, a few weeks in yours, it must be fraught. It was many months. It

:50:39.:50:44.

was 18 months into the first Assembly Government committee was

:50:45.:50:48.

October 2000 when the election had been in May 1999. I had been the

:50:49.:50:54.

first secretary as it was then since February. It's even from the

:50:55.:51:01.

February to October. The budget was having to be... But in 2007 there

:51:02.:51:08.

was an election. There were two months and wearing two months in

:51:09.:51:12.

which there was a dance going on as to whether the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru

:51:13.:51:17.

and the Conservatives would form this rainbow coalition. Whether the

:51:18.:51:20.

Lib Dems would come in with us because of what had happened in the

:51:21.:51:25.

year 2000, 2003 and this issue of not getting any credit, the Lib Dems

:51:26.:51:28.

are nervous about coming in again because they did not feel they got

:51:29.:51:32.

the credit for what they did in the two and half years of the first

:51:33.:51:41.

coalition. They wanted try out a different model. We try to get a

:51:42.:51:44.

coalition with them, it didn't work. The only alternative was the rainbow

:51:45.:51:47.

coalition or us going in with Plaid Cymru which eventually happened. I

:51:48.:51:50.

remember this clearly, will they, won't they? Did you think at some

:51:51.:51:54.

point the game was over and it was going to be the rainbow coalition?

:51:55.:51:59.

It could have happened. Did you think it at the time? You try to

:52:00.:52:05.

pretend that it isn't possible. A little bit like Wales playing

:52:06.:52:09.

Scotland. Could we possibly lose? Yes, theoretically we could vote you

:52:10.:52:14.

don't believe you could be out power. It was a knife edge within

:52:15.:52:18.

the Liberal Democrats at which delegates turned up to their

:52:19.:52:20.

national executive as to whether they turn down the rainbow coalition

:52:21.:52:25.

or whether they approved it was up to be really boring at a point of

:52:26.:52:29.

technicality it came down to a lack of a casting vote of the national

:52:30.:52:34.

executive meeting. Do you think back and think how different it might

:52:35.:52:40.

have then? Do not always what it is after elections. It's what makes it

:52:41.:52:44.

more interesting. Elections are dull and boring if you know who is going

:52:45.:52:49.

to win. Don't say that come with the campaign coming and we need to keep

:52:50.:52:57.

it interesting! It also means that if you have an election where the

:52:58.:53:02.

result is a dead cert, who is motivated to go out and vote? It'll

:53:03.:53:06.

be difficult to get people fired up about it. If you have an election

:53:07.:53:09.

where you're not sure who is going to win which a seat and you're not

:53:10.:53:13.

sure what the numbers are going to be after the election, who is good

:53:14.:53:16.

to form the government, that is likely to get people motivated. It

:53:17.:53:20.

means your vote does make more of a difference and it could affect the

:53:21.:53:26.

outcome of an election. From a party point of view, I don't want to look

:53:27.:53:29.

at what may or may not happen after May because we don't know, having

:53:30.:53:35.

just been in a coalition in Westminster are the party still

:53:36.:53:40.

smarting after the defeat that came after that and might make them less

:53:41.:53:44.

willing to go into a coalition here in Cardiff Bay? I'm sure that is

:53:45.:53:50.

true. We had 57 MPs are now we have eight. It is going to take a while

:53:51.:53:54.

for the emotional hurt to go away and for us to recover and feel

:53:55.:54:00.

positive about it. One of the things that I take away from it personally,

:54:01.:54:06.

I am very, I can still see the things we did in government the

:54:07.:54:08.

Tories would never have done in a million years. Regardless of the

:54:09.:54:14.

impact from a political party in the short time, even the matter the

:54:15.:54:20.

result points going into politics if you known going into power. The only

:54:21.:54:25.

way you change things and make Britain always a better place is if

:54:26.:54:28.

you get into power and you are able to implement what you think is the

:54:29.:54:32.

best way forward. By either doing it in a coalition or if you are lucky

:54:33.:54:38.

enough to have a majority that is when you can change things. I am

:54:39.:54:42.

proud of the things we did when we were in government. It was the right

:54:43.:54:48.

thing for us to do. The points you were making then about it isn't

:54:49.:54:51.

about ditching what is in your manifesto, it is about adding to it,

:54:52.:54:55.

that suggests you are positive about the idea of a coalition because it

:54:56.:55:00.

means more of the political spectrum is represented in government.

:55:01.:55:06.

You make it work if the people of Wales don't give you the majority.

:55:07.:55:12.

You have two negotiate very hard and the final negotiations with Plaid

:55:13.:55:16.

Cymru did go into the second and third decimal place of what we were

:55:17.:55:19.

proposing to do over the following four years. A lots of hard work went

:55:20.:55:28.

into that initial period between June and July and then you hope that

:55:29.:55:31.

by putting in the investment you are not there to have problems down the

:55:32.:55:37.

line in 2008. How difficult was it to keep their discipline? It's Mr

:55:38.:55:42.

bin fraught for the one Wales coalition, was difficult to keep

:55:43.:55:50.

discipline? Not at a Cabinet level but sometimes at a group level and

:55:51.:55:54.

sometimes at the party outside level. It is harder outside. If you

:55:55.:56:00.

are involved in making the decisions you understand what the negotiations

:56:01.:56:04.

have been. You understand what compromises have been made. For

:56:05.:56:07.

ministers it is easier to stick together because you understand why

:56:08.:56:10.

you have come to a particular position. It is natural for Labour

:56:11.:56:15.

AMs who are not in government to think if those Plaid Cymru were not

:56:16.:56:19.

in those coalition is I might have a chance of a ministerial office. So

:56:20.:56:25.

much more to discuss. Thank you both coming in.

:56:26.:56:26.

Don't forget you follow all the latest on Twitter.

:56:27.:56:28.

MPs are on their half term holiday at the moment, so you might be

:56:29.:56:41.

forgiven for thinking we'll be in for a quiet time next week.

:56:42.:56:44.

On Thursday, David Cameron heads to Brussels where he hopes

:56:45.:56:49.

to finalise his deal on Britain's membership of the EU at what's been

:56:50.:56:52.

dubbed the "crunch" European summit.

:56:53.:56:57.

We will see how crunchy it is. Tim, Mr Hammond, the Foreign Secretary

:56:58.:57:07.

this morning, Matthew Hancock on this programme, they both said,

:57:08.:57:10.

let's see what the final deal is because there could be more in it

:57:11.:57:13.

than the draft settlement, more for the British government. I would

:57:14.:57:16.

suggest that the draft settlement for Mr Cameron is as good as it

:57:17.:57:22.

gets. That may well be the case, journalists have been seeking

:57:23.:57:25.

rabbits from hats for many weeks, taking them out, and Eurosceptics

:57:26.:57:28.

have been shooting them long before David Cameron got anywhere near it.

:57:29.:57:33.

One thing I understand David Cameron will do before next weekend, he can

:57:34.:57:36.

explain what he means by this sovereignty lock, the sovereign

:57:37.:57:43.

Parliament will be... That is all smoke and mirrors. It is but it is

:57:44.:57:47.

the one thing he has got left. It is something they can do in domestic

:57:48.:57:51.

law and explain how the Supreme Court here will hold the European

:57:52.:57:54.

Court to the letter of the European treaty. It is effectively getting a

:57:55.:57:58.

British court to say that the European Court is not adhering to

:57:59.:58:02.

its own treaties. If the summit finishes on Friday I suspect he will

:58:03.:58:05.

unveil that either at a press conference or we will see him doing

:58:06.:58:08.

Andrew Marr next Sunday and telling the world all about it. He is going

:58:09.:58:13.

to do Andrew Marr next Sunday. Politically the Prime Minister would

:58:14.:58:17.

be in trouble with his own party if this deal was further watered down,

:58:18.:58:22.

wouldn't he? He needed to be strengthened. I'm hearing stories

:58:23.:58:25.

coming out of Brussels saying there is a rabbit or two, but whether they

:58:26.:58:31.

are tiny little rabbits or great big ones I don't know. I think this is a

:58:32.:58:36.

campaign that will be won by fear, not by terrific bribes and isn't the

:58:37.:58:40.

deal wonderful? What Philip Hammond said this morning was very

:58:41.:58:46.

important, that if we vote to leave, Europe will make sure our conditions

:58:47.:58:49.

are as bad as possible for fear of the whole thing falling apart, other

:58:50.:58:55.

countries peeling off. That's the serious threat. The idea that we

:58:56.:58:58.

will get a wonderful deal out of Europe or that France will go on

:58:59.:59:03.

being our border guards and look after our camp in Calais, I think

:59:04.:59:06.

it's those sorts of fears that will win it. If Mr Sarkozy wins in

:59:07.:59:12.

France, it could change the camp whether we are in or outcome he is

:59:13.:59:17.

campaigning on that. He could, that's true. Next year is next year.

:59:18.:59:21.

The problem with all these things, like the out campaign saying if in,

:59:22.:59:28.

Europe will react like this, none of that is provable until it happens.

:59:29.:59:34.

We had a close colleague of Angela Merkel today warning that it would

:59:35.:59:42.

be bloody, our terms, if we leave. And why shouldn't they say that?

:59:43.:59:45.

There's no point in issuing the threat afterwards. If they want to

:59:46.:59:54.

threaten, now is the time. Doesn't mean he's not a good man just

:59:55.:59:57.

because we haven't heard from him, but we haven't. It seems, I was

:59:58.:00:01.

suggesting, that Michael Gove, in terms of which Cabinet ministers are

:00:02.:00:06.

going to go with remain and which ones are going to go without, it

:00:07.:00:09.

seems that Michael Gove is becoming the pivotal figure, here.

:00:10.:00:15.

Suggestions that if he decides to go out, and apparently he is incredibly

:00:16.:00:18.

anguished about this, Boris Johnson could well follow. If he doesn't,

:00:19.:00:22.

they might not. Michael Gove is genuinely torn. Downing Street were

:00:23.:00:27.

very confident at the beginning of this year that Michael Gove would be

:00:28.:00:31.

with the Prime Minister. But anybody that has no Michael Gove, and are

:00:32.:00:35.

used to be his colleague, he will know that in his heart of hearts he

:00:36.:00:39.

would like to get Britain out of the European Union, it is as simple as

:00:40.:00:42.

that. At he knows that if he campaigns to take Britain out of

:00:43.:00:45.

Europe, what he is essentially doing is joining a campaign which, if

:00:46.:00:50.

successful, will destroy David Cameron's Korea, and George

:00:51.:00:54.

Osborne's and hand the Tory leadership to the two people in the

:00:55.:00:58.

Conservative Party he loathes more than anybody else, Theresa May and

:00:59.:01:03.

Boris Johnson. So he is torn. The thing about Boris Johnson, in his

:01:04.:01:07.

heart of hearts, believes Britain should be in the European Union. But

:01:08.:01:11.

there is one thing Boris Johnson believes more than that, which is

:01:12.:01:15.

that Boris Johnson should be Prime Minister. Therefore he needs to do

:01:16.:01:19.

what is best for that, which is why he needs this sort of thing.

:01:20.:01:25.

Grateful for that blinding revelation that Boris Johnson wants

:01:26.:01:29.

to be Prime Minister. If Cameron can keep Michael Gove on board, there

:01:30.:01:34.

will be fewer defections other than the usual suspects? I think that's

:01:35.:01:39.

right. Somebody described him to me as the big Domino and if he falls,

:01:40.:01:42.

others could. Cameron is trying quite hard. He had Gove in last week

:01:43.:01:49.

trying to persuade him. What they think they've got is an enlargement

:01:50.:01:54.

from Gove that if he does opt to follow his conscience and vote out

:01:55.:01:58.

he will not do much campaigning. I suspect he would do one interview

:01:59.:02:01.

and sit the thing out, and they think if he is not out there leading

:02:02.:02:05.

it, that will not do quite as much damage. We know Alan Johnson is

:02:06.:02:09.

heading up the labour effort to stay in, but is Jeremy Corbyn really

:02:10.:02:14.

going to campaign hard to stay in? Is the Labour Party going to spend

:02:15.:02:18.

money on this campaign? I very much doubt it. It's not in his heart. His

:02:19.:02:24.

instincts are to pick up the wrong issue, today there he is saying that

:02:25.:02:28.

he thinks Cameron is wrong on immigration, we should have much

:02:29.:02:32.

easier immigration, he shouldn't be trying to cut back the number of EU

:02:33.:02:36.

migrants coming into the country. That is no way to win it, I presume

:02:37.:02:40.

he knows it. It's very important that Labour voters are brought on

:02:41.:02:48.

board. Mr Cameron needs them, too. Cameron really needs Labour voters.

:02:49.:02:52.

It ought to be the great, strong, uniting message for Labour.

:02:53.:02:56.

Virtually all Labour MPs are strongly in favour part from a

:02:57.:03:00.

maverick hand. Quite the clear majority of the Parliamentary party.

:03:01.:03:04.

It should have been a big contrast, Labour pro-European, Tories all over

:03:05.:03:08.

the place. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn will muddy that.

:03:09.:03:12.

final debate when he laid into the European Union. He hates the new

:03:13.:03:29.

free trade area. He said he would support our membership but push four

:03:30.:03:37.

reform from within. A few days before the big summit which is meant

:03:38.:03:41.

to clinch it one way or the other are we heading for a June 23

:03:42.:03:46.

referendum? Almost certainly and thank God. So we can plan our summer

:03:47.:03:50.

holidays and ministers and advisers feel the same. Never mind about the

:03:51.:03:55.

needs of the nation. It looks like there will be some kind of deal and

:03:56.:03:59.

they may give him a bit more in some areas. Cameron is determined to

:04:00.:04:04.

press on with this, he does not want this hanging over his government.

:04:05.:04:07.

Every Monday he Will have backed out of the

:04:08.:06:30.

referendum, that is a factor in several politicians cut relations

:06:31.:06:35.

right now. As I discovered, the front runners have been very coy

:06:36.:06:42.

about it all. What is this about? A programme about the Tory leadership.

:06:43.:06:56.

What on earth is the relevance of that to your

:06:57.:06:59.

many millions of viewers when you consider that there is no,

:07:00.:07:02.

thankfully, thankfully, and there is no vacancy

:07:03.:07:03.

Nor is there going to be one for a very long time.

:07:04.:07:07.

Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky with some of the other

:07:08.:07:13.

Apparently, Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, might

:07:14.:07:16.

Speculation surrounds the Welsh Secretary,

:07:17.:07:18.

Stephen Crabb, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan

:07:19.:07:19.

once a female candidate, preferably her.

:07:20.:07:21.

Defra Secretary, Liz Truss is repeated to be ambitious.

:07:22.:07:23.

There are mutterings about Business Secretary,

:07:24.:07:24.

Sajid Javid, but is he really angling to be the next

:07:25.:07:27.

And is a leadership bid while Michael Gove is swinging over

:07:28.:07:32.

which side to back in the referendum.

:07:33.:07:34.

Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom is holding surgeries in the Commons

:07:35.:07:39.

tearoom and a mystery member of the 2015 intake is rumoured

:07:40.:07:42.

to have big plans and Employment Minister and arch

:07:43.:07:44.

Eurosceptic Priti Patel is expected to have a profile-boosting

:07:45.:07:46.

role in the Out Campaign and then there is Liam Fox.

:07:47.:07:52.

This week, a poll on the website run by

:07:53.:07:57.

Paul Goodman found that the former Defence Secretary was favourite

:07:58.:07:59.

If you speculate that the hard right of Conservative Party membership,

:08:00.:08:11.

is about a fifth of it, that sounds fair enough.

:08:12.:08:16.

What was remarkable about his score was in fact how low it was,

:08:17.:08:19.

it was the joint-lowest score for a leading

:08:20.:08:21.

A lot of this is total nonsense, but it presages

:08:22.:08:27.

potentially three years of Tory leadership gossip for the people

:08:28.:08:30.

The Tory party would be in a leadership crisis but the country

:08:31.:08:58.

would be in a huge political crisis. It would go on for years. It would

:08:59.:09:04.

take at least smack years of very painful negotiations, maybe longer,

:09:05.:09:09.

to get us out of these treaties. Nobody has done it before, nobody

:09:10.:09:13.

knows what it would look like. Cameron would have to go. The

:09:14.:09:20.

humiliation would be appalling. Osborne's chances would be shot to

:09:21.:09:24.

pieces. By then, the country might have changed its mind and be upset

:09:25.:09:29.

by having narrowly voted against for getting out. They might regret it.

:09:30.:09:33.

Where does that leave whoever the future leader is? Do you agree? This

:09:34.:09:40.

whole contest will boil down to several binary choices, in and out

:09:41.:09:45.

of Europe, George Osborne and not George Osborne. Boris Johnson Atmos

:09:46.:09:52.

Boris Johnson. Woman and man. -- or not Boris Johnson. Depending on the

:09:53.:09:56.

circumstances we will find a leader. The young and old. 2015 intake are

:09:57.:10:00.

getting bored about George Osborne is nearly inevitable and if not him,

:10:01.:10:04.

Boris Johnson. They are thinking about running one of their own.

:10:05.:10:07.

There are names that we haven't even considered that may enter the fray.

:10:08.:10:12.

David Cameron might not go immediately but if he has to go he

:10:13.:10:15.

would be the walking wounded through the summer and into the autumn. Mr

:10:16.:10:21.

George Osborne probably the same. He kind of throws everything open. It

:10:22.:10:26.

stars. There is a lot of chat amongst ministers about what happens

:10:27.:10:31.

if we vote to leave -- it does. The Prime Minister says we trigger at

:10:32.:10:35.

ago 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, two years negotiation and I should do

:10:36.:10:41.

that -- at Article 50. One school of thought is that the prime and will

:10:42.:10:45.

bring in David Davies as the Deputy Prime Minister and lead the exit

:10:46.:10:50.

negotiations but I can't see that. I think that will be a leadership

:10:51.:10:54.

contest and the defining feature is who is the best person to lead those

:10:55.:10:59.

exit negotiations. And you would assume that a minister who has said

:11:00.:11:02.

we should leave would be best placed. Maybe it will be possible to

:11:03.:11:06.

have administered through said we should be in but maybe not wholly

:11:07.:11:10.

involved in the remaining campaign. A good Eurosceptic track record.

:11:11.:11:19.

Boris Johnson? Theresa May Possibly. Do you want Boris Johnson

:11:20.:11:22.

negotiating the future of the treaty over two years? I think Boris

:11:23.:11:26.

Johnson's position will be weaker than anyone things because of the

:11:27.:11:30.

dithering. It is so transparent and nakedly ambitious. Whether he is

:11:31.:11:38.

fought in or out. Anybody who is interested in politics feels

:11:39.:11:41.

passionately in or out and he can't pretend to be waiting for these

:11:42.:11:44.

minor negotiations on this fundamental issue that he has

:11:45.:11:48.

tackled all his life. Even if we wrote to remain, what is your view

:11:49.:11:53.

on what is sometimes called even if we vote to remain, the

:11:54.:11:58.

Conservatives, whose heart would not have been in remaining, will want

:11:59.:12:01.

someone to lead them after Mr Cameron, much later, who was Brexit?

:12:02.:12:07.

There is a strong case for that. Most of the polls suggest that 70%

:12:08.:12:13.

of the conservative grassroot is a Brexitier. There are polls which

:12:14.:12:21.

show, to speak up for Boris, that he is wildly more popular than any

:12:22.:12:24.

other conservative. There are conservative MPs who will look at

:12:25.:12:27.

those polls, the one in the Independent this morning he is the

:12:28.:12:32.

only main stream politician who has a positive rating. This is a 2-stage

:12:33.:12:37.

process, the MPs put you on the ballot paper, the grassroots people

:12:38.:12:42.

select you. Only two names go forward. You need to get past the

:12:43.:12:49.

MPs and then make your case to the wider. If Boris gets through, to

:12:50.:12:54.

being one of the final two, given his popularity with the Tory

:12:55.:12:57.

grassroots, could change, it could be skin deep, I don't know, but

:12:58.:13:02.

wouldn't he be an unstoppable? He doesn't have a huge backing at

:13:03.:13:06.

Westminster, a lot of MPs don't know him. Will he survive the rigours of

:13:07.:13:11.

a campaign? The interview on the Andrew Marr show, he faced awkward

:13:12.:13:15.

questions about one of his friends. You assume he will get through that

:13:16.:13:20.

process. We are talking about a contest after we have voted to stay

:13:21.:13:24.

in. Important lesson from 1975, Harold Wilson was a massively

:13:25.:13:29.

strengthened after that win. He moved Tony Benn at the crucial post

:13:30.:13:32.

of industry because he was very strong. The Prime Minister will

:13:33.:13:34.

pretty strong on that. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:35.:13:40.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:41.:13:46.

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