21/02/2016 Sunday Politics Wales


21/02/2016

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Good morning and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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So after protracted negotiations, David Cameron has finally named

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the day when voters will decide whether or not the United Kingdom

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The Prime Minister said the country would be "safer,

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stronger and better off" by staying in a reformed European Union -

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on the terms he agreed with EU leaders in Brussels late

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But about a quarter of the ministers who sit with Mr Cameron

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They've said they'll campaign for the UK to leave.

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We'll be talking to one of those wanting out, Leader of the House

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We'll be deliberating over which way this man will swing.

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The Mayor of London has apparently been "agonising" over his decision,

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although apparently all the smart money's on him supporting

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The party wants to stay in the EU, arguing it will be better for jobs,

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We'll be joined by the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Hillary Benn.

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And with me, three of Fleet Street's finest, who've survived

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Nick Watt, Melanie Phillips and Tom Newton Dunn.

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So David Cameron's done a deal and named the date.

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Not everyone's convinced, even one of the Prime Minister's

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best Cabinet buddies, Michael Gove, has decided to campaign

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Both camps, those who want to stay in the EU and those who want

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to leave have come out all guns blazing this morning.

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Let's hear what David Cameron had to say on the Marr show

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If we remain in a reformed EU, you know what you will get communal how

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to do business, create jobs, continue with our economic recovery.

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If we leave, seven years potentially of uncertainty and at the end of

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that process you still cannot be certain that our businesses will

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have full access to the market. So it could cost jobs, mean overseas

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companies not investing in Britain. It would be a step into the dark, a

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real risk of uncertainty. And that is the last thing we need in our

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country now. Let's talk now to the BBC's

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Political Editor, Laura Kuenssberg. The town and the language has

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changed, it was fighting talk from Mr Cameron yesterday, all the other

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comments were about a friendly cabinet meeting, convivial, honest,

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now the gloves are off. It was described by Theresa Villiers, one

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of the ministers for Out, as emotional. I think today is the

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first time we will see those emotions spilling into the public

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domain. As you say the Prime Minister has moved into campaigning

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language, that fighting talk, because the stakes are so high for

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him. He knows fine well that he's taking a huge gamble with own

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leadership. Is taking a huge gamble with the country's membership of the

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European Union, and she always said he might in the end argued to leave,

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very few people who believe that come also taking a gamble with his

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own party unity and that fighting talk we heard from him on that is

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still in part a last-minute plea to those waverers to get on his side

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rather than going to the other. This is something we will see play out,

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perhaps Tom at Italy, this kind of blue on blue action. Cameron isn't

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going to stand up and debate directly with those opposing him. He

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will do it through another way. Another thing he said to Andrew Marr

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today was quite strong, and a bit sharp, he suggested that those come

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including perhaps Boris Johnson, want to campaign for Out, were

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linking arms with George Galloway and Nigel Farage. For most people in

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the Conservative Party, hardly a compliment. What about the waverers,

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Boris Johnson for example, he wasn't able to be swayed with Michael Gove,

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George Osborne, a close friend, and that will have been a big blow, how

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big a blow will it be Boris Johnson campaigns for Out? One thing about

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this, some people wonder why the media seem obsessed with one

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politician. The reason is this. It is not often that politicians have

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single name recognition. It's not often as, if we do from time to time

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you go out campaigning in action with politicians, if it is Boris

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Johnson people come out of their houses and their businesses and

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shops, to see him and talk to him. They want to have pictures taken

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with him. He's a rare politician, the kind who can actually add a real

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fizz to a campaign and cut through to the public. Some people love him,

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some despise. But the point is, his addition to the Out campaign, if

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that's the way he goes which is what we expect, it would change the

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dynamics of the campaign. Particularly for the Out side, who

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have not landed on one obvious leader, it would be a significant

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boost for them, real shot in the arm. We are finally going to cure

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from Boris Johnson at 10pm this evening. He will lay out his

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arguments in his regular Telegraph column. The surprise would be if he

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decided to stay in. But of course you never know with him, he is

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unpredictable, and instinctively many who know him well say that at

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heart he is a YouGov file, not naturally a sceptic. Theatrical to

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the end! Briefly, how will it play out between Cabinet ministers on

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either side? Will they really be able to hold it together over the

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weeks of campaigning? One extraordinary thing about this is

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that they have an officially divided Cabinet, and the normal way of

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politics working is that they have to stick together come hell or high

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water. I think most people will do their best to be polite but

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friendships and loyalties will be tested. Clearly what it means is

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that there won't be much going on here apart from this. The focus will

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be Europe. The Challenger David Cameron, whatever the result, is

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whether he can keep the party together after the vote. Thank you.

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So after a near sleepless night on Friday, European leaders

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were meant to agree a deal over a civilised English breakfast.

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They didn't bother with afternoon tea.

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In the end they came up trumps over dinner.

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History starts with a lot of waiting around, as I discovered on Friday.

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Waiting for news from the EU summit, Westminster had ground to a halt.

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Over there, European leaders were on their second

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The French president was worried about the city of London getting

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a special deal, the Polish Prime Minister feared her citizens living

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in the UK would lose their benefits, and the Greek PM was

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David Cameron said he was battling for a better deal for Britain,

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which involved lots of talk, quite a few croissants,

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Suddenly, back at Westminster, a thing happened.

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One of the Leave campaigns, Grassroots Out, held a rally

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where it was rumoured they would reveal a surprise supporter.

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Who would be your dream Eurosceptic special guest?

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Sorry, it was actually George Galloway.

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When he turned up, a bunch of people left.

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They were people who were waiting for Nigel and had

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The only thing more exciting was happening back in Brussels,

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where finally, a deal designed to keep Britain in the EU

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The hacks were briefed by a clearly knackered Prime Minister.

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Within the last hour, I have negotiated a deal to give

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the United Kingdom special status inside the European Union.

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In the midst of it all, Angela Merkel was snapped

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That is what I call a working dinner.

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Now, it's Saturday morning in Downing Street.

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More waiting, this time for the first Cabinet meeting

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on a weekend since the Falklands, and David Cameron's chance

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This is the deal and here is what it amounts to.

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for the City of London, when it comes to in-work benefits,

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the UK will be able to apply the emergency brake,

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they would get in their home country.

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Time for ministers to give their verdict.

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Home Secretary, are you a remain-ian?

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Chancellor, I am guessing you are an inner, aren't you?

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Each gave their answer during a two hour meeting in Number 10.

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Then the PM appeared to press the button marked "Referendum".

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The choice is in your hands, but my recommendation is clear.

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I believe that Britain will be safer, stronger and better off

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And apparently it is now totally fine for members of the Cabinet

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What was it like when Michael Gove spoke, was he a bit sad?

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Of course, because he and the Prime Minister, he and the rest of us,

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One of the interesting and remarkable things about this

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government is we all know each other and we like each other,

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We have each other's mobile phones and we text and talk to each other.

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Please join me in welcoming Vote Leave's...

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But the six ministerial Tory outers headed straight to the HQ

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It is Iain Duncan Smith, I am a member of the Cabinet.

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I will be voting to leave the EU because I am profoundly

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optimistic about the UK, I believe we can flourish

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outside the European Union, so I think the better option

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is to take back control, and restore the ability

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to make our own laws and control our own

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Happy, happy, here we go, big smiles.

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Now the referendum campaign will be brought to a street near you,

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like the Britain Stronger In Europe team did in rainy Bath this weekend.

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There is one more thing we are waiting for, which side

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The Mayor of London will reveal his intentions tonight.

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Exciting. Let's pick up on that. Tom Newton Dunn, will he campaign to

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come out? It looks very much like it. People close to him this morning

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that I've spoken to, some pro-European MPs who hoped he would

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go their way, have now resigned themselves to Boris going from Vote

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Leave. Apparently it was down to this big dinner he had with Michael

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Gove on Tuesday night as revealed by the Mail on Sunday today. Horace was

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really given an argument he found hard to refuse. It would certainly

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appear that they have done a deal to do this together. Is it not more

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about leadership ambitions than about his true feelings to do with

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the EU? Everyone will presume that now is not simply because Boris

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Johnson is known for being inside Europe, he is an internationalist,

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born in New York, he's lived in Brussels, he has always been in

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favour of reform but not leaving. He was telling people openly one month

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ago that he would campaign to stay in. He has clearly worked out that

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the electorate that matters for him other grassroots Tories and the MPs

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who ask up to Cork and who will therefore hopefully propel him

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towards being Prime Minister. The thought he will have is, does he

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look sincere in doing this? He will have to have a very good argument

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tonight to make it look why he has done this apparent turnaround. Let's

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look at some of the substance, Melanie Phillips. Some will say that

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not many people in the public will look at the details, they will do it

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on gut instinct and emotion. Do you think that is true, or are there

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salient issues that could capture the imagination? I think the two are

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not necessarily in contradiction of each other, gut instinct and

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emotional part of it and fear will have a lot to do with this campaign.

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The fear, we must cling on for fear of something worse which is what the

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Prime Minister has played on and will continue to do so

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significantly. I was struck by the interview with the Prime Minister

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this morning in which he addressed the most important issue,

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sovereignty. And he redefined it. He was so keen to slip away from it

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because it is so dangerous him. The odd comment is that Britain will

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still have no control over its own stash might be argued is that

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Britain will still have no control over its own laws, they will be

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dictated in significant measure. Users they are looking at a

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mechanism... He is clinging to his apparent concession that he has run

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from them not to sign up to ever closer union. That is a meaningless

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thing. The thing is that we in Britain will continue to be bad but

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the judgments of the European Court of Justice. Although the Prime

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Minister is floated some kind of constitutional settlement, this is a

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nonsense because nothing can override that superiority. While we

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continue to be signed at the EU. Opponents are vexed that we appear

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not to have the ability to make her own laws, but we do not seem to be

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vexed whether we have the ability to decide whether to go to war not. You

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could have a situation in the next few months where Turkey and Syria,

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sorry, Russia and Turkey could find themselves at war. What happens

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then? We are bound to go to war on Turkey's behalf, the cause Turkey is

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a member of Nato. Opponents of the European Union do not seem to be too

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vexed about that. Do you think security will be the overriding

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thing that will convince people? It is simple who is clicked to win this

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campaign. The winners will be the safest option and the losers will be

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the riskiest option. That is why the Prime Minister is talking about risk

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and uncertainty. He's saying what can you, the outers, what is your

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vision for what Britain would be like outside the European Union. We

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will hear more from you later in the programme.

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Well, as we've been hearing, as soon as David Cameron announced

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the date of the referendum, members of the Cabinet were given

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free rein to campaign on either side of the argument.

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So who'll be campaigning to stay in and who'll be

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It is time for ministers to pick a side.

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No surprises that David Cameron, George Osborne and Philip Hammond

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And they will be pleased that potential outers Theresa May,

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Liz Truss and Sajid Javid have also all opted for the remain team.

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Chris Grayling, Priti Patel, John Whittingdale, Theresa Villiers

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and Iain Duncan Smith will be campaigning to leave.

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They will be cheered that Michael Gove, after much

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soul-searching, has also plumped for the leave campaign.

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However, there is one big name waiting on the sidelines.

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Pollsters claim his support could sway a lot of voters.

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Surely it cannot be long to wait now.

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And the Leader of the House of Commons, Chris Grayling,

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Welcome. Hello. Why do you not think the deal that the Prime Minister

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secured was enough? The Prime Minister has made some progress in

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his discussions in Brussels, and we give him credit for that, but does

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this represent a transformation that says to me, we should stay within

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the European Union? It does not. Our membership of the European Union

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holds us back. There are decisions that we should be taking for the

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benefit of her country that we cannot take when wearing the EU,

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like how many people, and live and work your, like forming free-trade

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deals around the world, and we are spending millions of pounds a week

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in subscriptions to the EU that should be spent on the National

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Health Service are bringing their beds. Some of that does not take

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into account the rebate that the UK gets. In your mind, the prime and it

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has failed in his ambition to secure fundamental reform? The Prime

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Minister has worked hard at this. He has failed, in your mind? What he

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has brought back is a deal that he and others believe it is

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sufficient for us to stay in the European Union. I do not think that,

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I think we should leave. That is the essence of the debate. What did they

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have secured to get your support? You're talking about risk. All the

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National statisticians are saying that our population is on the way to

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rising from 75 to 80 million people. I do not think we can cope with

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that. We do not have the houses, the school places, the hospitals. Your

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government has failed to do anything about net migration figures? Letting

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that happen is a huge risk. We cannot do anything about it because

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of the free movement you -- rules in the European Union. If we did not

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have free movement, what level of movement would be acceptable? We

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should bring it down to the tens of thousands. If the UK pulled out of

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the EU, you would get the level down to the tens of thousands? We would

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have the ability to set limits. We would look at the reality of the

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migration pressures we face. We could take decisions in the

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interests of Britain. At the moment we cannot do that. So there is not

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anything that David Cameron could have secured to get your support,

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because you always wanted to come out of the EU? I believed for a long

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time it was likely I would decide to come out of the EU. I have

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sat through European meetings for five years. We are not able to look

:20:25.:20:26.

after our national interest properly, our citizens are business

:20:27.:20:28.

interests. Too many decisions have been passed to Brussels. Michael

:20:29.:20:30.

Gove spoke yesterday about the decisions that cross the desks of

:20:31.:20:32.

ministers. Give me one example of something that has come across your

:20:33.:20:37.

desk that you could not in act because of the EU? When I was

:20:38.:20:40.

Minister for health and safety, there were changes being brought in

:20:41.:20:44.

that would cost British business money. Which ones to G1 to bring --

:20:45.:20:49.

want to not bring in. You always talk about regulations. Which

:20:50.:20:55.

specific bills were you not able to pass, which laws were foisted on you

:20:56.:21:00.

by the EU? I would not have imposed massive change to the North Sea oil

:21:01.:21:04.

industry, which is the best safety record in the world. It took three

:21:05.:21:08.

years of intense negotiations to reduce a package which would have

:21:09.:21:11.

been damaging to one that simply cost extra money for the industry.

:21:12.:21:16.

You want to strip away health and safety regulations? We have the best

:21:17.:21:20.

resume in the world. Across the board you would like to get rid of

:21:21.:21:31.

health and safety regulations that are brought in as a result of not

:21:32.:21:34.

just our government but the EU? I want us as a nation to decide what

:21:35.:21:37.

health and safety rules we get in the UK, not have been imposed. I

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want the right regulation. I want proper safety in the workplace but

:21:40.:21:42.

not massive burdens put on business. What was the atmosphere like in

:21:43.:21:47.

Cabinet yesterday. It was cordial. It was constructive and friendly.

:21:48.:21:51.

The Prime Minister accepted we had different views around the table. We

:21:52.:21:55.

are all committed to working in the next few months for the cause we

:21:56.:21:59.

believe in. We will do it in a constructive and friendly way. You

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will not be able to do that. We do not have to attack each other

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personally insult each other. It is already happening. You have said the

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Prime Minister is your mongering, it will be project fear.

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Prime Minister is your mongering, it friendly? I have not said the prime

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and is to is scaremongering. friendly? I have not said the prime

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have implied it will friendly? I have not said the prime

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airlines thing, we have cheap airfares all around the world. There

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are airports in continental Europe that would go bust if it was not for

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low-cost aviation from United Kingdom. You can guarantee that to

:22:44.:22:47.

the British people, can you? All these things will be there the day

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after Britain votes to leave the EU? Why would people in continental

:22:53.:22:57.

Europe cost themselves money? You cannot guarantee it? Aske yourself

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the question. Do you think the day after Britain leaves the

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the question. Do you think the day no longer sell BMWs to the British?

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the question. Do you think the day It will not happen. There will be a

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trade deal. Countries will want to trade with the UK. The issue is,

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will it be the same trade with the UK. The issue is,

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be full access for the UK to the same markets? For goods and

:23:22.:23:27.

services? Are you saying this will be a utopia where the same deal will

:23:28.:23:31.

be struck, we will not have to be part of freedom of movement rules,

:23:32.:23:36.

and we will not have to pay a penny towards the EU? We are the most

:23:37.:23:41.

important customer of the European Union. Can you guarantee that we

:23:42.:23:45.

will have full access to trade and services in the way that exist now,

:23:46.:23:49.

without freedom of movement and without paying into a EU fund? Aske

:23:50.:23:53.

the question the other way around, why would they take a risk with jobs

:23:54.:23:58.

in Germany, France and other European countries, by not agreeing

:23:59.:24:07.

a proper modern free-trade agreement in goods and services? They run a

:24:08.:24:10.

massive trade surplus with us. They sell more to us than we sell to

:24:11.:24:13.

them. They lose out financially of those arrangements do not continue.

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I am not seeing the arrangements would not continue, they would

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continue. I am talking about the Thames. Everyone says we do not know

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what out would look like. I am trying to see how long it would

:24:26.:24:31.

take, would it look like Canada, and would it be on the same terms we

:24:32.:24:35.

have no? Why would it not be on a free-trade basis? It costs them

:24:36.:24:40.

money if it is not. It is not ours who loses money, it is Germany and

:24:41.:24:44.

France and other European countries. That is why there would be a

:24:45.:24:48.

free-trade agreement that would allow all businesses to trade. How

:24:49.:24:52.

long would that take? A relatively short period of time in my view,

:24:53.:24:58.

because they lose financially. If it took Canada seven years, how long

:24:59.:25:02.

would it take the UK? There is a process of negotiation set out in

:25:03.:25:06.

the treaty that is estimated to take two years. I would not expect those

:25:07.:25:12.

countries to take a risk. They would lose out financially, not us. Even

:25:13.:25:15.

over the negotiations, President Hollington said that he will not

:25:16.:25:20.

give special treatment to Great Britain. Why would these countries

:25:21.:25:24.

who have been pulled through the ringer over these negotiations

:25:25.:25:27.

suddenly want to immediately, on your timescale, set up favourable

:25:28.:25:33.

terms of trade with the UK? Does anybody seriously think that

:25:34.:25:36.

President Hollande will say to the French farmers, who we know are

:25:37.:25:39.

fairly lively bunch when they want to be, you will no longer have

:25:40.:25:43.

free-trade agreements to sell your wine, cheese and other agricultural

:25:44.:25:47.

products to British supermarkets? Why would you take that political

:25:48.:25:52.

risk? We do not know the terms, that you admit. We know what you would

:25:53.:25:57.

like. We know you're saying you cannot believe there would be

:25:58.:26:01.

another option, but it is a risk. The Prime Minister is right? It is a

:26:02.:26:07.

risk for the French not to have an agreement with us. Otherwise their

:26:08.:26:09.

businesses lose out. Sajid Javid does not agree with you and use the

:26:10.:26:14.

Business Secretary. Is he wrong when he says, my head says it is too

:26:15.:26:19.

risky for business? I think the risk is on the other side. Inside you jab

:26:20.:26:26.

the drum? I have a different view. -- is Sajid Javid. Continental

:26:27.:26:32.

Europe are the ones who would lose if we do not have a free-trade

:26:33.:26:37.

agreement with them. He is the Business Secretary. What do you know

:26:38.:26:40.

that he does not? We have different views around the Cabinet table. We

:26:41.:26:46.

set them out yesterday. Some of us are in Yahn Sommer out. We will have

:26:47.:26:50.

that debate over the next few months. The Business Secretary is

:26:51.:26:55.

very good at his job. He is also clear in his article that he is

:26:56.:26:59.

deeply unhappy about the European Union. But he is being loyal to the

:27:00.:27:05.

Prime Minister. We are taking different views. We are both loyal

:27:06.:27:09.

to the Prime Minister. Not on this issue. The Prime Minister has been

:27:10.:27:13.

clear that government ministers are free to take different sides. It is

:27:14.:27:22.

a bold decision, the right decision. If you lose the argument, are you

:27:23.:27:25.

worried about your job? I think that is relevant. While? It will only

:27:26.:27:29.

happen on June 23rd? Wanted easily see a situation where David Cameron

:27:30.:27:32.

feels strongly about this. He will say to you and your colleagues or

:27:33.:27:38.

canning for out, that is it, it is over? David Cameron will do what he

:27:39.:27:42.

believes is right. This is a matter of principle for me. It is not about

:27:43.:27:48.

my career, my job. I am doing what I believe is the right thing for the

:27:49.:27:53.

country. What happens to me is neither here nor there. I believe it

:27:54.:27:56.

is the right thing for the country and I also believe it is the

:27:57.:28:01.

low-risk option. Is it right for a Conservative majority government,

:28:02.:28:05.

for the first time in many years, fighting and divided over this

:28:06.:28:09.

issue? People expect mature democracy, the expect is as

:28:10.:28:13.

politicians to debate and discuss. They do not expect us to agree all

:28:14.:28:20.

the time, we are not robots. We will have a constructive debate but we

:28:21.:28:23.

will stay friends, we will stay respectful of the Prime Minister,

:28:24.:28:27.

and work to make sure that we carry on gather -- governing the country

:28:28.:28:33.

well. If you win, does the Prime Minister have to go? Absolutely not.

:28:34.:28:39.

So you trust him to renegotiate bilateral trade agreements with the

:28:40.:28:42.

EU as the Prime Minister the campaign to stay in the EU? I trust

:28:43.:28:46.

him as the Prime Minister that was bold enough to give the country the

:28:47.:28:50.

choice. If the country decides to stay, he will lead us in government

:28:51.:28:58.

in 2020. He would really be your favourite person to lead these

:28:59.:29:01.

negotiations? You would still trust and? I would still trust them. In

:29:02.:29:05.

terms of your colleagues, do you think it would be possible for him

:29:06.:29:09.

to stay either way? Absolutely. The last thing we need at the end of all

:29:10.:29:16.

this, regardless of the result, is a political bloodbath. We have a good

:29:17.:29:20.

team and the team needs to carry on. How big boost would Boris Johnson be

:29:21.:29:24.

to your campaign? It would be great if he

:29:25.:29:31.

to your campaign? It would be great more than anybody else, but

:29:32.:29:32.

to your campaign? It would be great you will join. If you lose, will

:29:33.:29:33.

this issue be settled? you will join. If you lose, will

:29:34.:29:35.

will have decided, so we will not be you will join. If you lose, will

:29:36.:29:39.

able to return. We will not be urging for another referendum. Is

:29:40.:29:42.

that it for a generation? The people On this momentous weekend,

:29:43.:29:58.

what does the EU referendum How would we be affected

:29:59.:30:00.

if the UK left and what are And Carwyn Jones says he wants five

:30:01.:30:04.

more years to start the work he begun, but has he done enough

:30:05.:30:08.

to inspire his party at their last conference before

:30:09.:30:11.

the Assembly election? In just four months' time,

:30:12.:30:14.

we'll get the the chance to do

:30:15.:30:19.

something that hasn't been on offer for more than 40 years - to decide

:30:20.:30:21.

whether we want to leave or remain The campaign seems to have been

:30:22.:30:24.

going on for months, But how does being a member

:30:25.:30:28.

of the EU affect us here in Wales? The EU is often called the biggest

:30:29.:30:36.

trading block in the world - So what better place

:30:37.:30:39.

to discuss it than the biggest indoor market in Wales

:30:40.:30:47.

with the people who sell here? The vast majority of meat from Wales

:30:48.:30:52.

is exported to the EU and according to the Welsh government,

:30:53.:30:56.

the red meat market alone is worth at least

:30:57.:30:58.

?175 million a year. If the UK left the EU,

:30:59.:31:04.

that market would still be there but what isn't

:31:05.:31:06.

clear is what exactly This butchers is run by a married

:31:07.:31:08.

couple with very different views But he does have to make

:31:09.:31:15.

the changes and if he doesn't stand his ground,

:31:16.:31:24.

we are done for. The way I look at it,

:31:25.:31:31.

they want our stuff and we want their stuff so we go back

:31:32.:31:37.

to where we were before. Farmers get their share of around

:31:38.:31:40.

?200 million of European Union The average dairy farmer gets

:31:41.:31:43.

?22,000 of grants with the average sheep farmer getting

:31:44.:31:48.

around ?19,000 a year. One gripe we have

:31:49.:31:53.

heard today is about immigration because any EU citizen

:31:54.:31:58.

can come and live in Wales. When we look at

:31:59.:32:01.

immigration, it is worth bearing in mind that Wales

:32:02.:32:03.

is the part of the UK with the lowest proportion

:32:04.:32:05.

of people born abroad. But people do come here to live

:32:06.:32:07.

and the two countries at the top of the list are both

:32:08.:32:11.

from within the EU. Parts of Wales, like Swansea,

:32:12.:32:13.

also benefit from EU It was worth almost

:32:14.:32:16.

?2 billion between 2014 and 2020, helping

:32:17.:32:21.

to create thousands of jobs. Opponents say it is not

:32:22.:32:27.

European money, it is our money and if we didn't have to send

:32:28.:32:30.

funds to the EU every year, it could come from

:32:31.:32:33.

the UK Government. Supporters of the EU say there is no

:32:34.:32:37.

guarantee that the UK Government would keep giving so

:32:38.:32:40.

much money to Wales. If they leave, I suppose it

:32:41.:32:51.

would just tell every other sort of major player like

:32:52.:32:54.

Germany and stuff like that to just cause them

:32:55.:32:56.

to leave and if they all leave, it might bring instability

:32:57.:33:04.

to the economic front. The EU regulates how much fishing

:33:05.:33:06.

there is off the coast of Wales, Here they say it could

:33:07.:33:09.

damage the industry. Everybody put sanctions on them

:33:10.:33:13.

apart from us and our waters We should be allowed

:33:14.:33:15.

to do that ourselves. Opponents say if they left the EU,

:33:16.:33:18.

there would be much more freedom to trade with emerging

:33:19.:33:21.

export markets like India and China, rather

:33:22.:33:23.

than having to go through Brussels. So it is clear the

:33:24.:33:27.

debate is heating up but until there is agreement

:33:28.:33:29.

in Brussels and a date for the vote, I am joined by people from either

:33:30.:33:32.

side of the argument. Joining me now are two women

:33:33.:34:00.

from either side of the argument - the chief executive of Leave EU,

:34:01.:34:03.

Liz Bilney, and the Lib Dem AM Eluned Parrott, who's

:34:04.:34:06.

with Britain Stronger in Europe. We would be able to negotiate our

:34:07.:34:12.

own trade agreements and re-establish our links with the

:34:13.:34:16.

Commonwealth. We could put in place appropriate policies such as

:34:17.:34:20.

migration. We could look to an Australian style system which we all

:34:21.:34:24.

agree is fair. We could welcome people from all over the world.

:34:25.:34:30.

Why would the UK be better to remain in the EU?

:34:31.:34:33.

It is nonsense to suggest it prevents us from trading with the

:34:34.:34:36.

rest of the world. 50 or 60% of our trade is with the rest of the world.

:34:37.:34:42.

The most compelling reason for me is the European Union has given us 60

:34:43.:34:45.

years of peace in a continent that has known 2000 years of

:34:46.:34:51.

uninterrupted war. I am not going to gamble with the futures of my

:34:52.:34:56.

children. I am going to vote with my heart to stay in and keep talking to

:34:57.:35:01.

our neighbours and friends. The point about peace. If the UK

:35:02.:35:06.

decided to leave the EU, it would still be there. That element of

:35:07.:35:11.

peaceful cooperation on mainland continental Europe would still be

:35:12.:35:13.

there? It would be there but we wouldn't be

:35:14.:35:17.

a part of it and I think we would be weaker if we weren't a part of that

:35:18.:35:21.

union. We helped create a system whereby we talk to our neighbours to

:35:22.:35:25.

help prevent what happened in the first and second world Wars, where

:35:26.:35:34.

this multilateral military only agreement centres into the First

:35:35.:35:38.

World War because we toppled into those situations.

:35:39.:35:41.

Would you like to come in there? I would suggest we are a member of the

:35:42.:35:44.

wrong club because we are a member of Nato and the UN Security Council.

:35:45.:35:57.

We also have seats in the 20. -- G20. We don't need to be part of the

:35:58.:36:03.

EU if security is our main concern. David Cameron was speaking to the

:36:04.:36:11.

BBC this morning, saying that the UK likes to be part of these

:36:12.:36:14.

organisations. Why not be part of this huge single market, the biggest

:36:15.:36:20.

in the world? Why not be in there, able to influence things.

:36:21.:36:25.

The EU cost us ?350 million a week and doesn't give us any benefits in

:36:26.:36:31.

return. When you look at trade, we are part of the World Trade

:36:32.:36:34.

Organisation so we have the right number shipped in different clubs.

:36:35.:36:38.

Why are we paying all this money? -- membership in different clubs.

:36:39.:36:47.

If the UK leaves, what would the nature of the trading relationship

:36:48.:36:51.

between the UK and the rest of the EU be?

:36:52.:36:57.

We buy more from the EU than we sell. When we look at the deficit

:36:58.:37:01.

figures, ?80 billion of deficit sat there and 50 million -- 50 billion

:37:02.:37:07.

is with the EU. In the event of the UK leaving...

:37:08.:37:13.

Trade won't change. We were going into the supermarket and buy...

:37:14.:37:16.

You can guarantee that? People will still want to purchase French wine

:37:17.:37:24.

and hoovers... Because of that, there will be no impact on jobs.

:37:25.:37:28.

You don't know that. We will want to buy the same products. We want to

:37:29.:37:35.

sell the same services. You would come to an agreement and when you

:37:36.:37:39.

have a seat on the World Trade Organisation, you will come to that.

:37:40.:37:44.

It doesn't sound cast-iron. Canada is a country trying to have its own

:37:45.:37:49.

free-trade agreement with the EU at the moment and has taken seven

:37:50.:37:51.

years. And I said, a country of fewer

:37:52.:37:58.

people, negotiated a trade agreement with China. Are you suggesting we

:37:59.:38:02.

are not capable? That was the argument from Nigel

:38:03.:38:06.

Farage this morning. There is a difference. Iceland is a small

:38:07.:38:10.

country and the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world,

:38:11.:38:13.

trading with all of these countries in the EU. China is one country. How

:38:14.:38:20.

can you guarantee we have a similar trade nature with the EU?

:38:21.:38:25.

Because we buy more from the EU than we sell so when we come to the table

:38:26.:38:29.

and they want to carry on that trading relationship, the cards are

:38:30.:38:31.

in our hands. It gives us the freedom to have a

:38:32.:38:35.

better deal for us? How can you argue with that? Is a

:38:36.:38:40.

fairy tale. How is it logical to say it is logical to be part of some

:38:41.:38:45.

clubs but not other clubs? There is no logical basis for that. When you

:38:46.:38:48.

think about the trade relationship with Europe, yes we will trade with

:38:49.:38:52.

them but there may well be terrorists in place and costs. We

:38:53.:38:57.

will not trade at the same price with the same ease. If there is no

:38:58.:39:00.

difference, why do you want to leave? What is the difference? There

:39:01.:39:05.

will be change and risk and difference and independent estimates

:39:06.:39:10.

reckon that UK consumers will pay ?3000 a year more for services and

:39:11.:39:14.

goods that we buy from the EU, such as flights, roaming charges on

:39:15.:39:19.

mobile tariffs and all those kind of things that have been lowered as a

:39:20.:39:24.

result of our membership of the EU. If you are looking for a new

:39:25.:39:27.

relationship, let's look at the relationships that exist for

:39:28.:39:32.

countries in Europe but not the EU like Norway or Switzerland. Are you

:39:33.:39:36.

basing your argument on a model they follow?

:39:37.:39:40.

I think we are more complex than that. You can take elements of what

:39:41.:39:45.

different countries have put I think it is a very simplistic way of

:39:46.:39:47.

looking at the world to say, let's take the Norway option. You can take

:39:48.:39:51.

elements of different countries and come up with a structure that

:39:52.:39:57.

reflects our make-up that makes us different and that is why we have to

:39:58.:40:00.

be out. Can you not described to me the

:40:01.:40:03.

model of the new relationship you want to broker? You want to broker a

:40:04.:40:08.

relationship with Europe but you can't tell me what that looks like?

:40:09.:40:12.

You want the voters of this country to throw away what they have for an

:40:13.:40:17.

unknown and uncertain future? It is risky for our children. I want my

:40:18.:40:21.

children to grow up in a world where they have jobs to go to...

:40:22.:40:26.

I would suggest that staying in the EU is the unknown. We have seen it

:40:27.:40:30.

evolved from what it was in 1975 to what it is today. We joined the

:40:31.:40:36.

Common market and now it is the EU. It will progress and we are seeing

:40:37.:40:41.

the decline of the euro so in a couple of years it could even

:40:42.:40:46.

collapse itself. I would suggest it is better to build outside the EU,

:40:47.:40:51.

make friends with the Commonwealth, the guys we left behind, and

:40:52.:40:56.

negotiate our own trade agreements. We will prosper. We find the

:40:57.:41:00.

prospect of leaving exciting. Eluned Parrott, you said the average

:41:01.:41:07.

consumer would be ?3000 worse off out of the EU, why is that?

:41:08.:41:11.

There are savings to be had by the fact there are no import charges and

:41:12.:41:16.

tariffs and for example... But you don't know what they would

:41:17.:41:18.

be. We have calculated it the other way

:41:19.:41:23.

round we think it would be ?3000 better off by coming out.

:41:24.:41:29.

We will come back to you. The kind of things that are cheaper

:41:30.:41:34.

as a result of the EU for consumers are food because we have a system

:41:35.:41:38.

that supports farming. It gives this food security. It is likely to be

:41:39.:41:44.

more expensive as a result. There are flights within Europe because of

:41:45.:41:49.

agreements within the airline industry and the European Union.

:41:50.:41:52.

Roaming charges for mobile phones and making sure there is access to

:41:53.:41:57.

mobile networks overseas. There are things with the average cost if we

:41:58.:42:05.

leave the UK is around ?3000 a year, it is estimated.

:42:06.:42:09.

You say ?3000 a year better off. Why is that? Let's say that if we

:42:10.:42:14.

are not in the EU, we will be saving ?55 million per day.

:42:15.:42:18.

That doesn't take into the account the fact there is a UK rebate that

:42:19.:42:24.

comes in so it is closer to ?45 million a day.

:42:25.:42:28.

It is still a lot of money. It could still help towards schools,

:42:29.:42:33.

hospitals and it could make this country great. It is a huge cost

:42:34.:42:36.

saving for our economy. But not for farmers in Wales. 15,000

:42:37.:42:44.

farmers in Wales get around ?20,000 a year in EU subsidies. They will

:42:45.:42:48.

lose that, won't be as Mac only if the government chooses not to give

:42:49.:42:51.

it back. It is uncertain. It is a different

:42:52.:42:55.

issue, saying you don't trust the fact the government would give us

:42:56.:42:58.

the rebate back. It is not trust, it is a lack of

:42:59.:43:01.

certainty. You are gambling it is better to

:43:02.:43:08.

have a bird in the hand. We know we can sort ourselves out and be better

:43:09.:43:13.

by being out. There will be cost savings by coming out. Jobs will not

:43:14.:43:18.

be affected. There are a lot of mist on the inside campaign but we are

:43:19.:43:22.

here to present the facts and we know that once people see the

:43:23.:43:25.

information, they will vote to come out of the EU.

:43:26.:43:29.

This is the first of many debates to come. Thank you both for coming in.

:43:30.:43:32.

In the middle of the huge story of an EU referendum,

:43:33.:43:35.

spare a thought for Welsh Labour, trying to set out their stall

:43:36.:43:38.

The Party has led the government in Wales since we've

:43:39.:43:41.

It's fair to say it's been a mixed bag as far as services go -

:43:42.:43:46.

ministers admit to having taken their eye off the ball

:43:47.:43:48.

Well, our political editor Nick Servini has been at the party's

:43:49.:43:52.

annual conference in Llandudno and spoke to the leader,

:43:53.:43:54.

He began by asking him what he made of the European deal.

:43:55.:44:05.

I can live with what has been proposed. I think the important

:44:06.:44:08.

thing is the principle that Wales should be part of the UK and the EU,

:44:09.:44:14.

to get access to the big single market that sustains so many jobs in

:44:15.:44:20.

Wales. And yet, and also Jeremy Corbyn again, today, a kind of

:44:21.:44:27.

mealy-mouthed acceptance. It could be tight. A bit of old-fashioned,

:44:28.:44:31.

tribal party politics is perhaps not is what is required if you want the

:44:32.:44:38.

UK to remain. The problem is the referendum in May and then the vote

:44:39.:44:44.

in June makes it hard to differentiate. The European campaign

:44:45.:44:48.

is different to the election campaign. Those that want Wales to

:44:49.:44:52.

remain part of the EU, we have an election on the 5th of May and the

:44:53.:44:55.

parties will be on their knees in terms of energy levels and they will

:44:56.:45:04.

have to campaign. There is a logistical difficulty. Senior Labour

:45:05.:45:08.

figures spoke to me, saying you should have a pact with the other

:45:09.:45:12.

parties whereby you don't talk about the EU because it gets in the way of

:45:13.:45:17.

the assembly campaign. Is this unrealistic? I won't be talking

:45:18.:45:22.

about the EU as a central part. We will be talking about health,

:45:23.:45:27.

education, the economy. We shouldn't conflate the EU referendum with the

:45:28.:45:31.

assembly election campaign. You know, let's be realistic. They are

:45:32.:45:35.

going to run into each other at different stages. Let's talk about

:45:36.:45:41.

your speech and the assembly campaign. Interesting, I thought, it

:45:42.:45:45.

was very personal at times. You had your wife as the warm up act. She

:45:46.:45:52.

volunteered, bless her! There was definitely a personal element. I

:45:53.:45:58.

wonder, particularly in terms of the content, you talked about it being a

:45:59.:46:04.

fight between who you want as a First Minister - yourself or Andrew

:46:05.:46:08.

RT Davies. I get the sense this is going to be a presidential style

:46:09.:46:12.

campaign. Is that what you want? First of all, we stand on what we

:46:13.:46:16.

have done and what we are going to do. We kept the promises we made in

:46:17.:46:20.

2011 and we are telling the people of Wales we will make our promises

:46:21.:46:26.

in 2016. In the age we live in, of course people look at party leaders

:46:27.:46:30.

and they will judge them according to whether they think they are up to

:46:31.:46:34.

the job that they are aspiring to get. Yes, there is an element of

:46:35.:46:38.

people looking at party leaders. They want to see them as people who

:46:39.:46:44.

look the part as First Minister. It is inevitable. You also have the

:46:45.:46:50.

policies. In terms of the policies, what are you going to do about

:46:51.:46:53.

hospital waiting list if you are in power? See them come down even more.

:46:54.:47:01.

We see bed blocking come down and cancer figures doing better than

:47:02.:47:05.

England. There are areas where we want to see improvement. Most

:47:06.:47:10.

hospital waiting lists are longer in Wales than England. Some are and

:47:11.:47:16.

some aren't. The OECD gave us a report last Friday that showed us

:47:17.:47:19.

there was no difference between the English and Welsh NHS. It didn't

:47:20.:47:25.

look at waiting times. It looked at what was being delivered. We have

:47:26.:47:30.

heard the Tories say the Welsh NHS is worse than the English NHS. It

:47:31.:47:35.

isn't. We have no junior doctors strike. We don't want that chaos. It

:47:36.:47:44.

is worse on waiting times. There is work to do. Not an cancer. Not

:47:45.:47:51.

cancer but most of them. You are right to say we want improvements to

:47:52.:47:55.

continue. We have seen ambulance waiting times improved and we want

:47:56.:47:59.

the same on waiting times. What are you going to do? It hasn't worked so

:48:00.:48:05.

far. It is making sure we put resources into the NHS. The NHS is

:48:06.:48:11.

not far off half of our budget. Demand goes up and the challenge -as

:48:12.:48:13.

it will be in the rest Demand goes up and the challenge -as

:48:14.:48:17.

meet the demand. You covered Demand goes up and the challenge -as

:48:18.:48:24.

of the M4 relief road. It is the only biggest construction project

:48:25.:48:29.

since the start of devolution. Are you going cool on it? There has to

:48:30.:48:35.

be a relief road. Why didn't you mention it? There are several things

:48:36.:48:42.

we didn't mention. We have a manifesto. It will be in the

:48:43.:48:50.

manifesto? Yes. You talked about taking flak for difficult decisions.

:48:51.:48:51.

I want to take you back to a taking flak for difficult decisions.

:48:52.:48:56.

he made to the NHS Confederation a couple of weeks ago. You said, it is

:48:57.:49:02.

impossible to spend more on the NHS and an council 's and anyone who

:49:03.:49:03.

says otherwise risks taking the and an council 's and anyone who

:49:04.:49:10.

Welsh public for fools. So are you prepared to take the flak here, that

:49:11.:49:18.

the new administration and you, the priority will be the NHS and

:49:19.:49:22.

will be less money for cancelled? That was aimed at other parties,

:49:23.:49:27.

particularly the Tories. I am told to put

:49:28.:49:33.

particularly the Tories. I am told defences. You can't do it all. It

:49:34.:49:35.

was aimed at defences. You can't do it all. It

:49:36.:49:39.

there is a magic money tree somewhere and difficult decisions

:49:40.:49:42.

don't have to be taken. They want to cut education funding by 12%, local

:49:43.:49:51.

government by 12%. That is an 38% increase on tax. In terms of your

:49:52.:49:58.

spending plans, you have said you cannot increase NHS and councils.

:49:59.:50:02.

You made it clear in the speech you are going to keep increasing

:50:03.:50:07.

spending on the NHS so it is a difficult message for cancelled and

:50:08.:50:12.

council spending. You seem to think this is a message I was giving on

:50:13.:50:16.

the half of our party. It was aimed at other parties because they claim

:50:17.:50:21.

you can do both. You are right to say that as we find more resources

:50:22.:50:24.

for the NHS, you have to find them from elsewhere and that is where the

:50:25.:50:30.

difficult decisions to come in. It sounded to me it is one or the

:50:31.:50:36.

other. We are not looking to raise council budgets, which seems to be

:50:37.:50:40.

the suggestion. When we look at where to find money, we look at

:50:41.:50:45.

schemes that are coming to an end and rationalising things. Sometimes

:50:46.:50:48.

we have to take difficult decisions where funding is kept in certain

:50:49.:50:53.

areas because there is a limited pot of money. What we have tried to do

:50:54.:50:59.

is prioritise spending on what the people of Wales will want.

:51:00.:51:01.

You have talked about a ten year plan and we are halfway through it.

:51:02.:51:07.

What is left to do? What have you failed to achieve in the first five

:51:08.:51:11.

years that needs to be done in the second? It isn't failing, you get

:51:12.:51:15.

five years delivering for people and you get a sense of what you can do

:51:16.:51:22.

next. We have come up with six pledges -help older people, people

:51:23.:51:27.

who need childcare, those who want training, people in the NHS and

:51:28.:51:31.

education. These are the areas that are important for the people of

:51:32.:51:35.

Wales. They are costly. We can deliver on them. We think they are

:51:36.:51:41.

understandable and will make a difference to people's lives.

:51:42.:51:46.

A ten year plan. Are you going to be First Minister after ten years?

:51:47.:51:50.

I want to be First Minister in May. I think it is wrong for politicians

:51:51.:51:54.

to say, I want to be there for a certain amount of time. I want the

:51:55.:51:58.

people of Wales to put me back in charge as First Minister in May.

:51:59.:52:05.

Thank you. I am pleased to say Nick has come down from Llandudno to join

:52:06.:52:08.

us now. What was the mood of the conference?

:52:09.:52:14.

It was a very busy conference. It would have been intense before an

:52:15.:52:17.

assembly election and throw into the mix Jeremy Corbyn, throw into the

:52:18.:52:23.

mix the fact that as things were unfolding in Llandudno, we had

:52:24.:52:28.

events in Westminster playing out and the story was unfolding about

:52:29.:52:33.

the confirmation of the date for the EU referendum. In terms of the set

:52:34.:52:37.

piece speech from Carwyn Jones, I think there was the view in the

:52:38.:52:41.

room, not just from party hacks, who would you -- who you would expect to

:52:42.:52:46.

say this but from independent observers-it was one of his

:52:47.:52:51.

strongest set pieces as he has given as a leader. It opened up the

:52:52.:52:55.

personal element. His wife was the warm up act talking about family

:52:56.:53:02.

holidays and the times they have met. He came in and talked about the

:53:03.:53:05.

aspirations that his mother and father had for him. That was

:53:06.:53:11.

introducing a new element. On the fundamental message of the decade of

:53:12.:53:18.

delivery and being halfway in, asking for more time, there are pros

:53:19.:53:22.

and cons. The clear strength for them is it brings Labour into the

:53:23.:53:26.

here and now. Welsh Labour don't want to be defending failed policies

:53:27.:53:32.

from 2002 in 2016 so it was not a triumphalist, look at our record

:53:33.:53:37.

after 17 years of Welsh Labour since evolution came into being. It comes

:53:38.:53:41.

into the here and now. The inevitable risk is it is an appeal

:53:42.:53:47.

for more time and inevitably, the response from a lot of people will

:53:48.:53:51.

be, you've had nearly 20 years! In the middle of the conference, bless

:53:52.:53:57.

them, comes this huge news we are going to have a referendum. What is

:53:58.:54:00.

your take on how the campaign will go in Wales. You know, I think a lot

:54:01.:54:08.

of people are not ready for it yet. I was in Merthyr last week and I

:54:09.:54:11.

spoke to a lot of people in relation to this and it is striking how many

:54:12.:54:15.

people have not made up their mind. Maybe I should be more specific.

:54:16.:54:18.

They haven't had the time to read Maybe I should be more specific.

:54:19.:54:22.

on it and be in a Maybe I should be more specific.

:54:23.:54:27.

make an informed choice. I have got an unscientific theory on this and

:54:28.:54:28.

it is the date in an unscientific theory on this and

:54:29.:54:32.

once you have a date in the calendar you then become a

:54:33.:54:37.

on the issues that are involved. I think the war in terms of broadcast

:54:38.:54:43.

and newspaper obsession with this over the months

:54:44.:54:48.

and newspaper obsession with this I don't know if you were born

:54:49.:54:52.

and newspaper obsession with this 1975, I was three. It

:54:53.:54:56.

and newspaper obsession with this generation opportunity and will be a

:54:57.:54:58.

huge story. I think people don't know what the

:54:59.:55:00.

huge story. I think people don't be like. What is it going to feel

:55:01.:55:05.

huge story. I think people don't like? I was in Swansea on Friday,

:55:06.:55:07.

looking at the EU. Overall like? I was in Swansea on Friday,

:55:08.:55:10.

more people wanted to leave than remain. You think of Swansea as a

:55:11.:55:13.

place remain. You think of Swansea as a

:55:14.:55:16.

million pounds of EU funding. remain. You think of Swansea as a

:55:17.:55:23.

it surprise you, looking at the poll last week, more people in Wales

:55:24.:55:28.

wanted to opt to leave than remain? Wales probably being the greatest

:55:29.:55:34.

beneficiary of EU money than the best of the UK? There has

:55:35.:55:37.

historically been a sense that Wales is more pro-Europe. There has been

:55:38.:55:44.

some research to back that up. Then we had the European elections. We

:55:45.:55:49.

have seen the rise in Ukip in Wales, really aiming for the assembly

:55:50.:55:56.

elections. The EU aid issue will give a Welsh dynamic to this picture

:55:57.:56:00.

because its presence is everywhere in so many communities and will have

:56:01.:56:07.

to be addressed by both sides. There will be an overlap between the

:56:08.:56:11.

referendum and the assembly election campaign. How will they deal with

:56:12.:56:17.

that? Hugely. At the Labour conference in Llandudno, people were

:56:18.:56:21.

deeply pessimistic. Stern warnings for people like me and other

:56:22.:56:26.

journalists -you have a duty to separate the two. One said the

:56:27.:56:31.

parties should form a packed and not talk about EU issues for fear of it

:56:32.:56:36.

being a distraction in the assembly campaign. Inevitably, that is going

:56:37.:56:40.

to be unrealistic. When assembly candidates knock on doors, people

:56:41.:56:44.

are going to want to know what they think about the EU and not the

:56:45.:56:47.

assembly. That is all from us. Goodbye.

:56:48.:56:51.

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