23/10/2016 Sunday Politics Wales

There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

This man might have something to say about that.

Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

Carwyn Jones will tell us about his red lines on Brexit.

And Leavve Wood says she doesn't rule out a coalition with Labour

during this Assembly term. one of the richest cities in the

world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the

squalor? And with me - as always -

the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,

Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job

a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then

quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party

is at "breaking point". This morning, the former

Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be

running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard

about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps

delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely

sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have

more than enough signatures on the nomination form already

to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people

signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged

with letters in support. I would not be doing this

if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members

are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was

Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him

as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -

Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm

going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge

support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the

party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I

want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not

going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at

the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to

step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means

it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history

know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can

disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What

happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that

we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions

together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure

and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand

last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life

travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than

anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt

that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next

generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for

someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party

inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together. You

told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take

on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and

friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis, and

I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the

open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is

moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be

better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate. I

thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political

parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.

I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well

with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party

together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is

supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able

to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After

November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the

past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has

before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some

of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip

these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not

invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that

will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit

really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class

communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe

Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,

would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in

the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that

mistake. There's working class communities right across the country

is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just

as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and

southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into

these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I

intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a

good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A

bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have

to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our

branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've

got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the

only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel

Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see

what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom

and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be

compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't

know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association

with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?

Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything

about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed

Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the

American election, because I think the two candidates are quite

appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of

your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring

that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.

Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can

move forward. If we don't unify, Ukip will not be around for much

longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.

We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's

new leader will be - the winner will be announced

Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between

the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot

stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to

say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another

candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British

politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news

for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?

It is. I think the personality difference and presentational

difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative

county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would

probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At

the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily

between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made

inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they

fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip

have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at

least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will

happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the

unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this

morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no

point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any

longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes

of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two

years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who

will sum that up the best. We shall see.

In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq

and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.

Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',

or an Islamic state, on the territories it

This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters,

Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault

Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.

They destroy it before it destroys them.

These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,

the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.

Controlling the city of around 2 million people means

that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.

This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base

you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency

movement in the fabric of another society.

It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq

since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort

Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.

Heading to Mosul from the south, the elite troops of the Iraqi army.

Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied

From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,

Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters

who have been accused of human rights abuses.

British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided

in by British personnel on the ground.

To the North West, a corridor has been left for some

of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route

which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.

We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place

in the outlying villages and there have been some

successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.

And the real question will be when the attackers get

towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?

It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.

IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites

in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.

The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families

have been rounded up as potential human shields.

The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?

The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,

some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.

They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.

They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.

The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia

militias which have helped to liberate them.

ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul

If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle

East went up in flames and was then carved up,

it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.

National identity has been cut across by other identities such

And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again

Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,

almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,

and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening

elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.

Big questions, questions that come after the battle.

The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.

I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.

In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two

provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.

Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces

of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain

and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we

don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure

is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few

thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly

likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the

Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they

took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to

create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi

Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.

Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental

blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is

what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that

will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary

Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi

forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of

Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which

is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we

want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.

Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the

border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of

that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the

coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is

likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street

to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we

doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is

very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone

into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps

around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40

million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms

of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response

budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we

are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is

that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this

assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You

are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning

since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --

planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the

appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we

need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in

place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is

continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.

The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big

exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist

magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a

unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it

could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out

of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is

very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and

keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring

them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been

working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we

have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have

worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their

structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have

done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the

British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming

that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt

with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be

crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need

to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as

bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by

the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is

that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they

have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is

stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making

sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is

making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's

response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that

is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the

front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to

make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that

population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing

territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we

think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part

of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult

across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United

Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real

danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last

five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop

often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been

largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it

went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it

holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it

gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else

and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They

say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a

big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we

keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --

safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in

Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen

in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the

conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much

energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the

humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want

to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to

make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking

after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they

have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why

our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals

with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.

Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We

fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important

move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the

government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State

this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF

pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces

on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if

you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your

leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.

What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi

government, and currently supported by the British government.

I did not support it when it came up.

Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most

of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we

He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been

very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have

learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt

sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the

aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was

from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told

the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air

strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in

Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face

the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.

We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it

is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic

State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is

he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the

past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,

both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also

in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you

mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress

with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do

you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to

read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the

car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems

they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to

pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have

become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer

interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to

the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that

is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies

and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken

democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference

and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy

Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,

but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the

international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very

clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the

next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of

Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a

very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are

reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't

change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues

related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't

change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to

Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It

is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato

allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not

let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the

way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be

taking them to international court over this, but we should also be

strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do

that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to

participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop

individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look

at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.

Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.

The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest

bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.

This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,

sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.

Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end

of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation

for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.

In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -

following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy

clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.

Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured

since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,

This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement

in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening

atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.

But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,

with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,

President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian

I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,

Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.

Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this

satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the

biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge

cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea

of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been

divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about

eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They

are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part

falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and

the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of

that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in

grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all

civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised

it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the

rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it

being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of

them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't

like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to

take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's

not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved. We

have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian

casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't

the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air

force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern

Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to

the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try

and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great

visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped

out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall, it

would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian

allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if

Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his

UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put

President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend

that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in

between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.

They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to

have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving

aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to

have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big

naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West

is being distracted and divided. Europe and America, by elections and

so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about

that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his

maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do

take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr

Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere

of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want

the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not

just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as

important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended

fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its

message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the

West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after

the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is

strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy. It

is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price

of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to

fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how

small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It

is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years

ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?

A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a

price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting

the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which

is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and

dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.

But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are

supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,

because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for

the Russian people. Thank you very much.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

In a few minutes the First Minister will be here live to tell us

what his red lines are over Brexit, ahead of a crucial meeting

And 50 years after Aberfan, politicians unite to pay

But first it's been quite a week for Plaid Cymru.

Last Sunday we had Dafydd Elis-Thomas here explaining

One reason he gave was that it wasn't willing to work

Since then, however, it seems Plaid have decided to do

all they can to prove Lord Elis-Thomas wrong.

On Tuesday the finance secretary Mark Drakeford set out the Welsh

Government spending plans for next year.

There were of course plenty of Labour pledges in there.

More money for the NHS, a touch more money for

Plaid Cymru AMs claim their fingerprints were all over a lot of

the promises, including more money for universities,

The deal came after months of budget negotiations between the

Surely the kind of co-operation Lord Elis-Thomas would

Leanne Wood went one step further when briefing

journalists ahead of the party conference in Llangollen, suggesting

they were actively considering a formal coalition.

She has since moved back from that but it still

meant there was plenty to talk about when she met up

with our political editor Nick Servini.

Leanne Wood, welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

Just to kick off with what was a huge chunk of your speech,

probably nearly half of it, on Plaid Cymru's

The central core - remain in the single market.

In your view, does that mean we still have the free movement

I went to Brussels recently with colleagues

and it was made very clear to us from those discussions that freedom

of movement, of goods, services and people come as a package.

For embership of the currency it's non-negotiable that freedom of

That said, one of the options we are looking at

They are in the single market, there is an element

of freedom of movement of people but there are restrictions on that

so for example you have to have a job

We would be prepared to consider and look at those kinds of options

going on and has been skewed to other areas.

In Wales we don't have an immigration problem and in fact,

our immigration problem is a migration problem.

The perception is there and it was very real in the

It is not very credible or responsible

to make policy on the back of perception.

It is much better, surely, to make policy on the basis

We just ignore the referendum result, do we?

I mean, it was pretty clear even in Wales that something

Wasn't that a pretty logical conclusion from the EU referendum?

Well, the ballot paper that I voted on had one question on it and that

was asking people whether they wanted to remain

There was nothing on it about immigration.

There was nothing about the single market.

You were out on the campaign trail like I was and there were

times when virtually every other person was

Lots of people were talking about immigration and I accept it is an

issue that people have concerns about but people also have concerns

about jobs, industry, our economy and for Plaid Cymru

We've got wages that are 10% less here than other parts of the UK.

That situation simply cannot continue and we have to put jobs and

52% of voters in Wales voted to leave the European Union,

knowing full well that would entail leaving the single market.

If that was the case where did they say that on the

The question on the ballot paper was about the European

Union and there are countries out of the European Union and in the single

market and I think it is in Wales's best interests to try to pursue

I think there were a range of reasons.

Some people voted because of immigration, you're right.

Other people voted because of austerity.

Other people in Rhondda tell me they are sick and tired

of politicians not listening to them, turning up

and closing their local libraries, swimming pools, of not paying people

There are those women suffering because they have

got to work much later than they originally

People are fed up of not being taken seriously by the political class

and they were given the opportunity to have a say about that.

Should we take them seriously and listen

We can do that if we take people's views on

immigration, those with the view you are talking about, which is an

anti-immigration position, then what we are potentially doing is

jeopardising the 200,000 jobs that are reliant on being a member

39% of exports that we sell to the European Union we

have to take those things seriously and for Plaid Cymru, working on

facts and evidence, not on perception, we are putting jobs

at the top of the agenda and not immigration.

When you look at the three demands or the three sort of

central planks of your Brexit response, looking at the

constitution, Wales at the top table negotiating position and remaining

in the single market, these, certainly in terms of what we heard

so far, two of these three, the top table and the continued membership

of the single market, this is a near impossibility, isn't it?

Until we sign Article 50, there is a vacuum.

The kind of Brexit that we have is up for grabs.

You're right, the Prime Minister has made a number of statements.

She is certainly favouring a hard Brexit

approach but that doesn't mean we capitulate and accept that.

When have people in Wales have accepted what the Tories told us?

It is just a case of what is realistic.

And if we continue to be in the single market,

we are still in the EU, really, aren't we?

People have voted to leave and we accept that result and

we are putting forward a range of options for a soft Brexit to limit

the damage to Welsh communities, to industry and jobs.

But nothing really substantial would have changed, would it?

won't be able to shape the policies of the European Union, we won't have

a say in the European Union but we will still be able to trade.

But we would have the free movement of goods and services.

It will be very difficult to see how some kind of deal would be

negotiated where there is full membership of the single market and

an end to freedom of movement to people.

Some in the Tory party are claiming that can be done.

I see that, actually, as something very

You spent a lot of time in your speech talking

about Brexit but it was quite clear what got the biggest cheer was when

you told delegates you were not actively seeking a coalition with

That is obviously where the party wants you

Is that going to be the case for the next four

I have not ruled out that because things change.

Politics is changing on an hourly basis.

What could change that you would consider?

Wales's national future is potentially in jeopardy.

We've got Tories in the Assembly now, starting to try

to put the debate for the abolition of

Things are going to get very difficult and rocky over the next

few years but the arrangement we've got now is a good one for us.

We are a strong and effective opposition,

we are holding the government to account, scrutinising their position

on Brexit and at the same time we've agreed the biggest budget deal that

any opposition party has agreed since the beginning of devolution.

From my perspective we've got the best of both worlds

at the moment and so the current arrangement is

something we are perfectly happy with.

Is there a danger you are neither one thing or the other?

Or everything. Or both.

Can you really be an effective opposition if

you are striking deals with Labour all the time?

You saw the way the Tories led the opposition in the

Did they win a single concession from the

Plaid Cymru has within four months of this Assembly term agreed

the biggest budget deal since the beginning of devolution.

Tomorrow, First Minister Carwyn Jones will be

in Downing Street to discuss Brexit with the Prime Minister Theresa May

and his counterparts from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

He's here with me now to tell us what he'll be saying.

I hope! Good morning and thank you for coming in. Just before we move

on to what we will be discussing tomorrow let's look back at the

interview with Leanne Wood. She said she wouldn't close the door to

coalition discussions over the next four years.

What do you make of that? The one thing I picked up is she said she

was content with the current structures we have in place and so

are we. The door isn't closed. It is not for

me to say what Plaid Cymru said at their own conference but we have

agreed on a structure we are content with so let's continue in that same

vein. I have a feeling I won't get much

more from you on that one. Let's move on to the discussions with

Theresa May, the leaders of Scotland and Northern Ireland as well with

how to move forward on Brexit. We have heard Theresa May saying today

there needs to be a more grown-up relationship between the UK

Government and devolved administrations.

Is that something you would welcome? She is reiterating what was agreed

two years ago. At the heart of the problem is this- those who voted

Brexit didn't think they would win and they did win and now they don't

know what to do. We do need direction and we need to agree a way

forward as the UK and its different administrations agree on that. If

Whitehall can't get agreement with the devolved administrations, what

hope does it have to get agreement with 27 member states? We need

proper discussions to get a common UK viewpoint.

You said these are discussions you had two years ago but since Brexit

does there need to be a further change in the relationship between

the relationships of the UK countries?

It needs to be more of a partnership rather than being told what is

happening. We are told we are fully part of the discussions, we know

what is going on and I don't think the UK Government would want to be

involved in a negotiation in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

are saying they don't agree. It is more sensible to try to get an

agreement in the UK first in terms of our way forward.

Do you think it is a partnership at the moment or being told what is

happening? I don't think they realise the scale

of the challenge, if I'm honest. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

need to look to get some kind of agreement and to work closely with

us. And they talk about power is coming from Brussels to London. A

lot of them bypass London and came straight to Wales.

You will know there is a different view on that point within the UK

Government which probably won't necessarily bypass London. They will

have a say on that. How contentious is that? It is clear

in the devolution settlement what happens. It is something we have to

deal with. From our perspective people said to us you will not get

any concessions on funding. It is out of the window. But we did. We

are not where we should be but we had a commitment to some guarantee

of the funding for the next few years. After Twenty20 there is not a

farthing to pay farmers. Above all else we need to understand what the

red lines are for the UK Government rather than saying it will all be

fine. It only works for a short period of time.

Is there a danger when you meet in England, from Theresa May's point of

view, she will say that Scotland voted to remain and Nicola Sturgeon

is threatening another referendum on independence. They have a concern

about a hard border with the Republic and the Good Friday

Agreement in Ireland. In Wales we are talking about farming. It is not

going to be top of the agenda. Wales is nowhere near the top of the

agenda. What is important is the agenda.

People voted to leave the EU but they didn't vote to lose jobs. We

have been successful in getting an and implement rate that is lower

than England, Scotland and Northern Ireland because we have sold

ourselves on the basis that Wales is a gateway to the European market. If

there is a barrier to that for me it is absolutely crucial we have full

and unfettered access to that single European market. It is important.

Jobs are important and that is what I will be emphasising.

You say access. Does that need to be membership or can there be some

middle way? It doesn't matter. You can access in

various ways. Membership involves being part of the EU, that's the way

I interpret it, but there are other ways to get access to the single

market. What is crucial is that our big employers like Ford and Tata

steel don't find there is a barrier in place when they are trying to

sell to the European market which is eight times bigger than the UK. What

I wouldn't accept either is if we have an agreement where the City of

London had preferential treatment and manufacturing didn't.

It has to be a level playing field. About access to the single market.

Does that need to be from a company's point of view completely

tariff free, nothing that would inhibit their entry into the

European market, that there will be a cost to that. You know that France

and Germany and other leaders will be saying, if you want that it comes

at a cost. Either will mean freedom of movement or payments from the UK

Government. What should it be? The red line for

me is I want to make sure that Welsh manufacturers can continue to sell

in the single market. One of the problems is that people when they

voted were told, don't worry, the EU will fall over itself to have an

agreement with us. None of this is true. That means we have to be very

careful in making sure there is a right deal and the work goes in now

to make sure we have the deals for Wales.

When you mention a red line, what do you mean by that? My reading is that

unless you get your own weight you will respond to that in a certain

way. What do you mean when you say

redline? I would not under any circumstances support any deal that

sold the reintroduction of tariffs. Would you have a choice? If the UK

Government wants to go into other governments in the UK critical of

any deal they might reach, I don't think that is wise. It is much

better to gain the support. It is what negotiation is. You going and I

do get as much support as possible to strengthen your hand. My aim is

to strengthen the hand of the government and not destructed but

the UK Government has to make sure it works with us to make sure it is

in the strong possible position when negotiations start.

And where do you stand on emigration? It seems to me that you

seem to have hardened your stance. You are talking about a moratorium.

A few weeks ago you were talking about perhaps only people with jobs

being able to come into the UK. What is clear to me is people were

concerned about the current system of freedom of movement. I heard it

on the doorstep. All we really know if people voted to leave the EU. I

do together on the doorstep and it would be unwise to ignore that

sentiment so we have to look at ways to see how this could operate in the

future, what kind of otherwise we would need to get access to the

single market. There are no easy answers at the moment.

What would be your best offer as an answer to the situation?

What we need is no barriers are in place for doctors or nurses coming

here, for professionals running companies.

So a sort of work Visa system? There are models elsewhere where if you

have a job you can come to work. That is one possibility. We have to

look at all possibilities and come down in favour of the one we think

is best for Wales and Britain. Before we finish, you were at the

services to remember what happened 50 years ago on Friday in Aberfan.

It doesn't seem to be losing its poignancy.

No, if the answer to that. I went there when I was 18 for the first

time. I stood in the cemetery and looked down on the pit. As a

teenager I felt it was said. When you have children of your own it

really magnifies the sense of loss that you feel other people had. For

me it was hugely emotional on Friday, usually in emotional in the

Assembly on Wednesday as well to deliver the words I said, which came

from heart. It doesn't feel like 50 years for the of Aberfan and we

shouldn't forget. Half a century as past so do you

think there will come a time when the name isn't so closely synonymous

with what happened there? We know that over time the effect of

an event will diminish but the memory shouldn't. In 50 years they

will be no Woody alive who remember that. It was before I was born but

my mother talked about it. My mother was pregnant with me at the time. My

mother-in-law was also pregnant with my wife and they were both teachers.

The memory itself must never allowed to be lost.

Just from the aftermath, it does seem to be perhaps another political

time in terms of how politicians reacted to it as well.

How can you react in any other way other than to try to give comfort to

the people and show support and sympathy? Would not going to help. I

know that. I think it helps people to know there are so many others

thinking of them on that day. It doesn't matter if it is 50, 49 or 51

years. The pain is the same. For the people of Aberfan I hope it gives

them some support that they were people thinking of them on Friday

and that minute silence, that we may be proud of that.

A nation's heart can never be totally broken -

that's what Gwyn Thomas wrote as a eulogy for those who died

in Aberfan but it can be wounded, he said.

Over the past week or so we've all been remembering the awful

Wales came to a standstill on Friday as a minute's silence marked

During the week politicians united to pay their tributes,

These are the children of today's Aberfan.

The pupils of Ynys Owen Primary and Ysgol Rhyd Y Grug.

Alongside them, the Ynys Owen male voice choir formed almost half

a century ago to raise money for charity and provide

The past, present and future of the community together

in the Assembly for a memorial service to mark the

50th anniversary of the Aberfan disaster.

Politicians in Cardiff Bay and Westminster have held

commemorations to remember the 144 people who died, most of them

children, when a mountain of coal waste collapsed and enveloped a

school in the village on the 21st of October 1966.

It is appropriate that the Welsh Senedd remembers the

tragic loss of life in Aberfan and that we show the people

of Aberfan that Wales has not forgotten the

tragedy of Aberfan and we as politicians need to remember

the tragedy and build on the hope that triumphs over

tragedy as the people of Aberfan have demonstrated.

First Minister Carwyn Jones met the next generation

memorial service before he joined politicians in the chamber to

Today we stand in solidarity with the people

We offer them support and I hope some comfort

as they deal with the memories of that day

when winter darkness came early to the community of Aberfan.

In the House of Commons the knock-about of Prime

Minister's Questions was punctured by tributes to those who died and

those who survived the horror of Aberfan.

I know that the whole House will wish

to join me in remembering all those who lost their lives and were

affected by the Aberfan disaster 50 years ago this week.

It claimed the lives of 144 people, the vast

It caused devastation to the local community.

It is right that we pause and reflect on this important

anniversary and recognise the solidarity and resilience of the

people of Aberfan to overcome this powerful tragedy.

I now ask the National Assembly and the public gallery to rise...

And after the words from the politicians, the

A minute of reflection 50 years exactly since so

AMs, being led by the National Assembly's presiding

officer Elin Jones, as they paid their tribute to those

who died in the Aberfan disaster in 1966.

go ahead with this policy, I know. And now back to Andrew.

So, Brexit, airports, Calais and the chances

With what Rory Stewart was saying there, it is clear that Islamic

State is losing territory in Iraq now, and could come under pressure

in Syria as well. It used to control a whole swathe of the coast of

Libya, and is now down to a small area of Sirte in Libya. But

curiously, it could make them more dangerous here if they are being

driven out of the Maghreb and the Levant, they could be more dangerous

here. Discuss. That was a very interesting admission from a

government minister, of all people, and a well-informed one. Chasing

Isis around the Middle East is about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda

around Afghanistan and Pakistan. You smash them somewhere, and they pop

up somewhere else. He is right to warn that these guys will go

somewhere. And it may well be, in Sirte, for example, across the magic

oration -- across the Mediterranean into Italy. A lot of the foreign

fighters in Mosul have already gone, we heard, which raises the question,

to where? I think it is quite right for government ministers to warn

that it might have repercussions here. We have been involved in this,

with full public consent, as far as we can tell. If it doesn't happen,

if there are horrors and outrages here and in the rest of Europe,

that's fine. If it does happen, at least the government is prepared. We

knew surprised about how categorical Nia Griffith was? She was

categorical about support for the Allied action in Iraq, and

categorical about Russia. So much so that perhaps written should take

tougher sanctions on its own, even if it can't get the Europeans to

fall in line. I found that interesting. I was surprised by

that. Tom may be right that Rory said more than perhaps he was

intending, but I thought that some of what she said sounded politically

imprudent in the current context of the Labour Party. I'm not sure she

cleared those lines with the Labour office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy

are in the same place about it. I'm not sure there is that much

leadership. People at the moment get out there and say what they think

it's right for the party. She sounded dead right to me. Whether it

is ill-advised or not, people should answer... I want to move on, because

Brexit never goes away. This week we saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow

Foreign Secretary. He is going to be the chair of the select committee in

the Commons which will monitor the Department for Brexit. All sorts of

people will be coming to give testimony and so one. Let's hear

what he told Andrew Marr. I think it will be very important

for the government to indicate that if it is not possible within the two

years provided for by Article 50 to negotiate both our withdrawal

agreement and a new trading relationship, market access,

including for services, 80% of our economy, million jobs,

in financial services, that it should tell the House

of Commons that it will seek a transitional arrangement

with the European Union. If the deal is not done at the end

of the two-year Article 50 process, would the government go for an

interim agreement, or would it fall back on WTO, World Trade

Organisation, Rawls? My understanding is the article 15

negotiation doesn't specifically include what Britain's future

trading relationship with the EU would be. It is perfectly possible

that Article 50 could be triggered, and after two years we don't have a

trade deal, but the trade deal negotiations are ongoing when we are

outside the EU. But the trade deal negotiations are the most important

thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover it, what is it about? Absolutely

essential. The trade deal with Canada has taken nine years, and now

it looks like it is fading, because of the Walloons. Just one small part

of the country. If you cannot do a free-trade deal with Canada, a

progressive, social Democratic Canada, who can the EU do a trade

deal with? You would think it would be easy with us, because we have all

of the level playing field agreements in place. You would hope

it would be easier, but it may not be, because in the end, it will

hinge on the single market and if we are in or out. If we are in, can we

have a small break on immigration? It looks like not. What is

interesting about the opinion polls is, in the last two opinion polls

there was a significant change in public opinion, where people are now

saying they think that actually trade, the economy, the single

market is more important than immigration. If it is really true,

as the observer is reporting today, that banks are on the move, and in a

year's time there could be a significant collapse in the income

we get from finance, the income that the Treasury gets, then public

opinion might change. They may say, we don't want more immigration, but

this isn't a price worth paying. Everything tends to be seen through

the Brexit lens at the moment. Things are not always as they seem.

The Canadian- EU free trade agreement was about increasing free

trade between the EU and Canada, and therefore subject to the

ratification of all members. Any deal we do will not give us the same

access we have at the moment. The question is, how much will it be

diminished? It may not be subject to the same ratification process.

Absolutely right. Another unbelievably technical point that we

still don't know is, if we can get this free-trade deal with the EU at

the same time as our Brexit talks and deal, the divorce deal as well

as the remarriage deal, then one gets signed off by QM V. The trade

deal may still need all 28, all 27, including the people from the

Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority of parliament. This is exactly why

Theresa May would like the transitional deal to push this one

deeper. I was surprised to hear Hilary Benn pushing this line this

morning. The remainers have been all over the place. They wanted a vote

after Article 50 had been triggered about the deal. Then they wanted a

vote before Article 50. Now they are talking about a vote before article

Article 50 is triggered about a trade deal. They need to make up

their minds about what it is they are pushing for, and what their best

hope of obstructing Brexit is, and stick with it. Something else we see

through the Brexit lens, which isn't always helpful, is Calais. The

French bulldozers will move in tomorrow. We will see some pretty

disturbing scenes on the TV. We will see some horrible scenes. The

government has handled this very badly. Having passed an amendment in

April saying we would take something like 3000 children, a lot of those

children have disappeared. Save the Children, one of the charities

there, are very worried that people traffickers have been in there, and

a lot of those children have vanished. We haven't sent social

workers in. No preparations have been made what ever. You are raising

an interesting point. We don't know how many we are meant to be taking.

The huge argument has arisen over what the age is of some of the ones

coming in. Is this another problem for the Home Office? To some extent.

Didn't Theresa May 's too well to survive six weeks of this? Amber

Rudd has been there for three months. It is clear that the Home

Office didn't prepare for this. They didn't prepare for the age

verification or when it will go. It needs to be an perfect. We don't

know how many we will take, because the Home Office will not say. I want

to talk about airport capacity, but I won't, because I don't think we

have anything to say about it until the statement on Tuesday from

Transport Minister Grayling. When you look at the polls and see the

decision on airport runway expansion being kicked into the long grass for

a year, are we heading for an early election next year or not? I think

Theresa May will do everything she can to avoid it. If there is an

election before 2020, it is bound to be about Europe, and that is a much

harder case for her to win than just a question of who is the best Prime

Minister. She will have a tough time, because it will be a general

election about in or out of the single market. Half of her party

will peel away. How do she conduct a general election when the likes of

Anna Soubry will not stand on the same platform? It will be difficult.

But she may reach such a stalemate that she just calls one. No general

election next year because it will split the Tory party. There will be

won in 2019 when she cannot get Brexit through the House of Commons.

You really can have too much of a good thing. I just want to show a

little clip of the former Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly

last night. Let's just watch this. There he is.

Where is the hand? That is the worrying bit! We will no longer be

saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair of hands! Can we agree on that?

Remarkable that he was once the man most feared by David Cameron! Labour

leader 2021. He has hit popular culture in the way that many few

politicians do. Charm, gusto, bravery, no worries about being

embarrassed. All the things that you don't like about being a politician.

We have run out of time. You can get it on social media.

Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics tomorrow

And I'll be back here next Sunday at the same time.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.