22/01/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


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22/01/2017

Andrew Neil, Arwyn Jones and shadow home secretary Diane Abbott provide reaction to Theresa May's Brexit speech and look at the inauguration of US president Donald Trump.


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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:36.

Theresa May will be the first foreign leader to visit US

:00:37.:00:40.

President Donald Trump this week - she's promised to hold "very

:00:41.:00:43.

frank" conversations with the new and controversial

:00:44.:00:45.

Speaking of the 45th President of America,

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we'll be looking at what the Trump presidency could hold

:00:53.:00:56.

in store for Britain and the rest of the world.

:00:57.:01:02.

And with the Supreme Court expected to say that Parliament should

:01:03.:01:05.

have a vote before the Brexit process begins, we'll ask

:01:06.:01:08.

Theresa May has had her say. what Labour will do next.

:01:09.:01:15.

Next up, the Welsh government's wish-list on Brexit.

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And who'll get the tax when houses are sold along the Welsh border?

:01:19.:01:32.

And to talk about all of that and more, I'm joined by three

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journalists who, in an era of so-called fake news, can be

:01:36.:01:38.

relied upon for their accuracy, their impartiality -

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and their willingness to come to the studio

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It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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and Tom Newton Dunn, and during the programme they'll be

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tweeting as often as the 45th President of the USA in the middle

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So - the Prime Minister has been appearing on the BBC this morning.

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She was mostly talking about Donald Trump and Brexit,

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but she was also asked about a story on the front of this

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It's reported that an unarmed Trident missile test fired

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from the submarine HMS Vengeance near the Florida coast in June

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The paper says the incident took place weeks before a crucial Commons

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Well, let's have listen to Theresa May talking

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The issue that we were talking about in the House of Commons

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It was about whether or not we should renew Trident,

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whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident.

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That's what we were talking about in the House of Commons.

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That's what the House of Commons voted for.

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He doesn't want to defend our country with an independent

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There are tests that take place all the time, regularly,

:03:03.:03:09.

What we were talking about in that debate that took place...

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I'm not going to get an answer to this.

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Tom, it was clear this was going to come up this morning. It is on the

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front page of the Sunday Times. It would seem to me the Prime Minister

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wasn't properly briefed on how to reply. I think she probably was, but

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the Prime Minister we now have doesn't necessarily answer all

:03:43.:03:45.

questions in the straightest way. She didn't answer that one and all.

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Unlike previous ones? She made it quite clear she was briefed. You

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read between the Theresa May lines. By simply not answering Andrew Marr

:04:01.:04:05.

four times, it is obvious she knew, and that she knew before she went

:04:06.:04:09.

into the House of Commons and urged everyone to renew the ?40 billion

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replacement programme. Of course it is an embarrassment, but does it

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have political legs? I don't think so. She didn't mislead the Commons.

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If she wanted to close it down, the answer should have been, these are

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matters of national security. There's nothing more important in

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that than our nuclear deterrent. I'm not prepared to talk about testing.

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End of. But she didn't. Maybe you should be briefing her. That's a

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good answer. She is an interesting interviewee. She shows it when she

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is nervous. She was transparently uneasy answering those questions,

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and the fact she didn't answer it definitively suggests she did know

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and didn't want to say it, and she answered awkwardly. But how wider

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point, that the House of Commons voted for the renewal of Trident,

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suggests to me that in the broader sweep of things, this will not run,

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because if there was another vote, I would suggest she'd win it again.

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But it is an embarrassment and she handled it with a transparent

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awkwardness. She said that the tests go on all the time, but not of the

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missiles. Does it not show that when the Prime Minister leaves her

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comfort zone of Home Office affairs or related matters, she often

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struggles. We've seen it under questioning from Mr Corbyn even, and

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we saw it again today. Absolutely. Tests of various aspects of the

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missiles go on all the time, but there's only been five since 2000.

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What you described wouldn't have worked, because in previous tests

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they have always been very public about it. Look how well our missiles

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work! She may not have misled Parliament, but she may not have

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known about it. If she didn't know, does Michael Fallon still have a job

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on Monday? Should Parliament know about a test that doesn't work? Some

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would say absolutely not. Our deterrent is there to deter people

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from attacking us. If they know that we are hitting the United States by

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mistake rather than the Atlantic Ocean, then... There is such a thing

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as national security, and telling all the bad guys about where we are

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going wrong may not be a good idea. It was her first statement as Prime

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Minister to put her case for renewal, to have the vote on

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Trident, and in that context, it is significant not to say anything. If

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anyone knows where the missile landed, give us a call!

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So Donald Trump's inauguration day closed with him dancing

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to Frank Sinatra's My Way, and whatever your view on the 45th

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President of the United States he certainly did do it his way.

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Not for him the idealistic call for national unity -

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instead he used Friday's inaugural address to launch a blistering

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attack on the dark state of the nation and the political

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class, and to promise to take his uncompromising approach

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from the campaign trail to the White House.

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Here's Adam Fleming, with a reminder of how

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First, dropping by for a cup of tea and a slightly awkward exchange

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Then, friends, foes and predecessors watched

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I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear...

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The crowds seemed smaller than previous inaugurations,

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the speech tougher then any previous incoming president.

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From this day forth, it's going to be only America first.

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In the meantime, there were sporadic protests in Washington, DC.

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Opponents made their voices heard around the world too.

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The President, who'd criticised the work of

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the intelligence agencies, fitted in a visit to the CIA.

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There is nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community

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And, back at the office, in the dark, a signature signalled

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the end of the Obama era and the dawn of Trump.

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So, as you heard there, President Trump used his

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inauguration to repeat his campaign promise to put "America first"

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in all his decisions, and offered some hints of what to expect

:09:21.:09:23.

He talked of in America in carnage, to be rebuilt by American hands and

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American Labour. President Trump has already started to dismantle key

:09:40.:09:43.

parts of the Obama Legacy, including the unwinding of the affordable care

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act, and the siding of the climate action plan to tackle global

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warning. Little to say about foreign policy, but promised to eradicate

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Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth, insisting he would

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restore the US military to unquestioning dominance. He also

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said the US would develop a state missile defence system to deal with

:10:09.:10:12.

threats he sees from Iran and North Korea. In a statement that painted a

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bleak picture of the country he now runs, he said his would be a law and

:10:19.:10:23.

order Administration, and he would keep the innocents safe by building

:10:24.:10:28.

the border war with Mexico. One thing he didn't mention, for the

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first time ever, there is a Eurosceptic in the oval office, who

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is also an enthusiast for Brexit. We're joined now by Ted Malloch -

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he's a Trump supporter who's been tipped as the president's

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choice for US ambassador to the EU, and he's

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just flown back from Washington. And by James Rubin -

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he's a democrat who served Let's start with that last point I

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made in the voice over there. We now have a Eurosceptic in the oval

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office. He is pro-Brexit and not keen on further European Union

:11:06.:11:08.

integration. What are the implications of that? First of all,

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a renewal of the US- UK special relationship. You see the Prime

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Minister already going to build and rebuild this relationship. Already,

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the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the oval office.

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Interestingly, Martin Luther King's bust is also there, so there is an

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act of unity in that first movement of dusts. Donald Trump will be

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oriented between bilateral relationships and not multilateral

:11:41.:11:50.

or supernatural. Supranational full. What are the implications of someone

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in the White House now not believing in it? I think we are present in the

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unravelling of America's leadership of the West. There is now a thing

:12:03.:12:06.

called the west that America has led since the end of World War II,

:12:07.:12:14.

creating supranational - we just heard supernatural! These

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institutions were created. With American leadership, the world was

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at peace in Europe, and the world grew increasingly democratic and

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prosperous. Wars were averted that could be extremely costly. When

:12:32.:12:36.

something works in diplomacy, you don't really understand what the

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consequences could have been. I think we've got complacent. The new

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president is taking advantage of that. It is a terrible tragedy that

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so many in the West take for granted the successful leadership and

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institutions we have built. You could argue, as James Rubin has

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argued in some articles, that... Will Mr Trump's America be more

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involved in the world than the Obama won? Or will it continue the process

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with running shoes on that began with Mr Obama? President Obama

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stepped back from American leadership. He withdrew from the

:13:23.:13:27.

world. He had a horrendous eight years in office, and American powers

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have diminished everywhere in the world, not just in Europe. That

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power will reassert. The focus will be on America first, but there are

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foreign interests around the world... How does it reassert itself

:13:42.:13:47.

around the world? I think the institutions will be recreated. Some

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may be taken down. There could be some new ones. I think Nato itself,

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and certainly the Defence Secretary will have discussions with Donald

:13:58.:14:01.

Trump about how Nato can be reshaped, and maybe there will be

:14:02.:14:05.

more burden sharing. That is an important thing for him. You are

:14:06.:14:10.

tipped to be the US ambassador to Brussels, to the EU, and we are

:14:11.:14:15.

still waiting to hear if that will happen. Is it true to say that Mr

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Trump does not believe in EU integration? I think you made that

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clear in the speech. He talked about supranational. He does not believe

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in those kinds of organisations. He is investing himself in bilateral

:14:38.:14:41.

relationships, the first of which will be with the UK. So we have a

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president who does not believe in EU integration and has been highly

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critical of Nato. Do the people he has appointed to defend, Secretary

:14:54.:14:57.

of State, national security, do you think that will temper this

:14:58.:15:02.

anti-NATO wretched? Will he come round to a more pro-NATO situation?

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I think those of us who care about America's situation in the world

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will come in to miss President Obama a lot. I think the Secretary of

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State and the faculty of defence will limit the damage and will urge

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him not to take formal steps to unravel this most powerful and most

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successful alliance in history, the Nato alliance. But the damage is

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already being done. When you are the leader of the West, leadership means

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you are persuading, encouraging, bolstering your leadership and these

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institutions by the way you speak. Millions, if not hundreds of

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millions of people, have now heard the US say that what they care about

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is within their borders. What do you say to that? It is such

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an overstatement. The point is that Donald Trump is in a Jacksonian

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tradition of national populism. He is appealing to the people first.

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The other day, I was sitting below this page during the address, and he

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said, everyone sitting behind me as part of the problem. Everyone in

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front of me, the crowd and the crowd on television, is part of the

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solution, so we are giving the Government back to the people. That

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emphasis is going to change American life, including American

:16:33.:16:35.

International relations. It doesn't moving the leak back -- it doesn't

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mean we are moving out of Nato, it simply means we will put our

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national interests first. There were echoes of Andrew Jackson's

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inauguration address of 1820. That night, the Jacksonians trashed the

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White House, but Mr Trump's people didn't do that, so there is a

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difference there. He also said something else in the address - that

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protectionism would lead to prosperity. I would suggest there is

:17:08.:17:14.

no evidence for that in the post-war world. He talked about protecting

:17:15.:17:20.

the American worker, American jobs, the American economy. I actually

:17:21.:17:23.

think that Donald Trump will not turn out to be a protectionist. If

:17:24.:17:30.

you read the heart of the deal... This is referring to two Republican

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senators who introduce massive tariffs in the Hoover

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administration. Exactly. If you read The Art Of The Deal, you will see

:17:46.:17:50.

how Donald Trump deals with individuals and countries. There is

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a lot of bluster, positioning, and I think you already see this in

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bringing jobs by the United States. Things are going to change. Let's

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also deal with this proposition. China is the biggest loser of this

:18:05.:18:11.

election result. Let me say this: The first time in American history

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and American president has set forth his view of the world, and it is a

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mercantile view of the world, who makes more money, who gets more

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trade, it doesn't look at the shared values, leadership and defends the

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world needs. The art of the deal has no application to America's

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leadership of the world, that's what we're learning. You can be a great

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businessman and make great real estate deals - whether he did not is

:18:43.:18:47.

debatable - but it has nothing to do with inspiring shared values from

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the West. You saying China may lose, because he may pressure them to

:18:52.:18:55.

reduce their trade deficit with the US. They may or may not. We may both

:18:56.:19:02.

lose. Right now, his Secretary of State has said, and I think he will

:19:03.:19:06.

walk this back when he is brief, that they will prevent the Chinese

:19:07.:19:10.

from entering these islands in the South China Sea. If they were to do

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that, it would be a blockade, and there would be a shooting war

:19:15.:19:19.

between the United States and China, so US - China relations are the most

:19:20.:19:23.

important bilateral relationship of the United States, and they don't

:19:24.:19:27.

lend themselves to the bluff and bluster that may have worked when

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you are trying to get a big building on second Ave in Manhattan. Is China

:19:32.:19:36.

the biggest loser? I think the Chinese have a lot to lose. Gigi and

:19:37.:19:53.

Ping was in Davos this week -- Xi Jin Ping was in Davos.

:19:54.:19:58.

Is Germany the second biggest loser in the sense that I understand he

:19:59.:20:04.

hasn't agreed time to see Angela Merkel yet, also that those close to

:20:05.:20:12.

him believe that Germany is guilty of currency manipulation by adopting

:20:13.:20:15.

a weak your row instead of the strong Deutschmark, and that that is

:20:16.:20:19.

why they are running a huge balance of payments surplus with the United

:20:20.:20:25.

States. American - German relations may not be great. There is a point

:20:26.:20:31.

of view throughout Europe. You only have to talk to the southern

:20:32.:20:34.

Europeans about this question. It seems like the euro has been aligned

:20:35.:20:38.

to benefit Germany. Joe Stiglitz, the famous left of centre Democrat

:20:39.:20:44.

economist, made the same case in a recent book. In this case, I think

:20:45.:20:52.

Germany will be put under the spotlight. Angela Merkel has shown

:20:53.:20:56.

herself to be the most respected and the most successful leader in

:20:57.:21:01.

Europe. We who care about the West, who care about the shared values of

:21:02.:21:05.

the West, should pray and hope that she is re-elected. This isn't about

:21:06.:21:10.

dollars and cents. We're living in a time whether Russian leader has

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another country in Europe and for some inexplicable reason, the

:21:16.:21:21.

American president, who can use his insult diplomacy on everyone,

:21:22.:21:24.

including Mrs Merkel, the only person he can't seem to find

:21:25.:21:30.

anything to criticise about is Mr Putin. There are things more

:21:31.:21:34.

important than the actual details of your currency. There are things like

:21:35.:21:38.

preventing another war in Europe, preventing a war between the Chinese

:21:39.:21:41.

and the US. You talk about the Trident missile all morning, nuclear

:21:42.:21:48.

deterrence is extremely important. It doesn't lend itself to the bluff

:21:49.:21:53.

and bluster of a real estate deal. I understand all that, but the fact we

:21:54.:21:56.

are even talking about these things shows the new world we are moving

:21:57.:22:01.

into. I'd like to get you both to react to this. This is a man that

:22:02.:22:05.

ended the Bush Dynasty, a man that beat the Clinton machine. In his

:22:06.:22:13.

inauguration, not only did he not reach out to the Democrats, he

:22:14.:22:15.

didn't even mention the Republicans. These are changed days for us. They

:22:16.:22:22.

are, and change can be good or disastrous. I'm worried that it's

:22:23.:22:26.

easy in the world of diplomacy and in them -- for the leadership of the

:22:27.:22:32.

United States to break relationships and ruin alliances. These are things

:22:33.:22:36.

that were carefully nurtured. George Schultz, the American Secretary of

:22:37.:22:44.

State under Reagan talked about gardening, the slow, careful

:22:45.:22:47.

creation of a place with bilateral relationships that were blossoming

:22:48.:22:52.

and flowering multilateral relationships that take decades to

:22:53.:22:55.

create, and he will throw them away in a matter of days. The final

:22:56.:23:01.

word... I work for George Schultz. He was a Marine who stood up

:23:02.:23:05.

America, defended America, who would be in favour of many of the things

:23:06.:23:10.

that Donald Trump and the tramp Administration... Give him a call.

:23:11.:23:15.

His top aide macs that I've spoken to are appalled by Mr Trump's

:23:16.:23:19.

abdication of leadership. He is going to our radically -- he's going

:23:20.:23:27.

to eradicate extremist Islam from the face of the year. Is that

:23:28.:23:32.

realistic? I know people in the national security realm have worked

:23:33.:23:36.

on a plan. They say they will have such a plan in some detail within 90

:23:37.:23:42.

days. Lets hope they succeed. We have run out of time. As a issues.

:23:43.:23:48.

Thank you, both. -- fascinating issues.

:23:49.:23:51.

So Theresa May promised a big speech on Brexit, and this week -

:23:52.:23:54.

perhaps against expectation - she delivered, trying to answer

:23:55.:23:57.

claims that the government didn't have a plan with an explicit

:23:58.:23:59.

wish-list of what she hopes to achieve in negotiations with the EU.

:24:00.:24:02.

To her allies it was ambitious, bold, optimistic -

:24:03.:24:04.

to her opponents it was full of contradictions

:24:05.:24:06.

Here's Adam again, with a reminder of the speech and how

:24:07.:24:10.

There are speeches, and there are speeches.

:24:11.:24:15.

Like Theresa May's 12 principles for a Brexit deal leading

:24:16.:24:18.

to the UK fully out of the EU but still friendly in terms

:24:19.:24:21.

This agreement should allow for the freest possible trade

:24:22.:24:25.

in goods and services between Britain and the EU's member states.

:24:26.:24:28.

It should give British companies the maximum

:24:29.:24:33.

operate within European markets and let European businesses do

:24:34.:24:36.

She also said no deal would be better than the wrong deal,

:24:37.:24:44.

We want to test what people think about what she's just said.

:24:45.:25:00.

Do we have any of our future negotiating

:25:01.:25:03.

As the European Parliament voted for its new

:25:04.:25:07.

president, its chief negotiator sounded off.

:25:08.:25:15.

Saying, OK, if our European counterparts don't accept

:25:16.:25:17.

it, we're going to make from Britain a sort

:25:18.:25:20.

of free zone or tax haven, I

:25:21.:25:23.

The Prime Minister of Malta, the country that's assumed the EU's

:25:24.:25:29.

rotating presidency, spoke in sorrow and a bit of anger.

:25:30.:25:32.

We want a fair deal for the United Kingdom, but

:25:33.:25:36.

that deal necessarily needs to be inferior to membership.

:25:37.:25:46.

Next, let's hear from some enthusiastic

:25:47.:25:49.

leavers, like, I don't know, the Daily Mail?

:25:50.:25:54.

The paper lapped it up with this adoring front page.

:25:55.:25:57.

For Brexiteers, it was all manna from heaven.

:25:58.:26:01.

I think today means we are a big step closer to becoming

:26:02.:26:04.

an independent country again, with control of our own laws,

:26:05.:26:07.

I was chuckling at some of it, to be honest, because

:26:08.:26:13.

There were various phrases there which I've used myself again and

:26:14.:26:17.

Do we have any of those so-called Remoaners?

:26:18.:26:22.

There will, at the end of this deal process,

:26:23.:26:23.

so politicians get to vote on the stitch-up, but

:26:24.:26:27.

We take the view as Liberal Democrats that

:26:28.:26:30.

if this process started with democracy last June,

:26:31.:26:32.

We trusted the people with departure, we must trust them

:26:33.:26:37.

Do we have anyone from Labour, or are you all

:26:38.:26:43.

watching it in a small room somewhere?

:26:44.:26:45.

Throughout the speech, there seemed to be an implied threat that

:26:46.:26:52.

somewhere along the line, if all her optimism of a deal

:26:53.:26:55.

with the European Union didn't work, we would move

:26:56.:26:57.

into a low-tax, corporate taxation, bargain-basement economy on the

:26:58.:26:59.

I think she needs to be a bit clearer about what

:27:00.:27:03.

The Labour leader suggested he'd tell

:27:04.:27:10.

his MPs to vote in favour of starting a Brexit process if

:27:11.:27:13.

Parliament was given the choice, sparking a mini pre-revolt among

:27:14.:27:16.

Finally, do we have anyone from big business here?

:27:17.:27:21.

Of course, your all in Davos at the World Economic

:27:22.:27:30.

Clarity, first of all, really codified what many of us have been

:27:31.:27:40.

anticipating since the referendum result,

:27:41.:27:42.

particularly around the

:27:43.:27:43.

I think what we've also seen today is the Government's

:27:44.:27:47.

willingness to put a bit of edge into the negotiating dynamic, and I

:27:48.:27:51.

Trade negotiations are negotiations, and you have to lay out, and you

:27:52.:27:55.

have to be pretty tough to get what you want.

:27:56.:27:58.

Although some business people on the slopes speculated

:27:59.:28:00.

about moving some of their operations out of Brexit Britain.

:28:01.:28:02.

We saw there the instant reaction of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn,

:28:03.:28:20.

but how will the party respond to the challenge posed by Brexit

:28:21.:28:23.

Well, I'm joined now by the Shadow Home Secretary, Diane Abbott.

:28:24.:28:27.

People know that Ukip and the Tories are for Brexit. The Lib Dems are

:28:28.:28:36.

four remain. What is Labour for? For respecting the result of the

:28:37.:28:40.

referendum. It was a 72% turnout, very high for an election of that

:28:41.:28:45.

nature, and we believe you have to respect that result. You couldn't

:28:46.:28:48.

have a situation where people like Tim Farron are saying to people,

:28:49.:28:53.

millions of people, sorry, you got it wrong, we in London no better.

:28:54.:28:56.

However, how the Tories go forward from here has to be subject to

:28:57.:29:03.

parliamentary scrutiny. Is it Shadow Cabinet policy to vote for the

:29:04.:29:08.

triggering of Article 50? Our policy is not to block Article 50. That is

:29:09.:29:12.

what the leader was saying this morning. So are you for it? Our

:29:13.:29:19.

policy is not to block it. You are talking about voting for it. We

:29:20.:29:24.

don't know what the Supreme Court is going to say, and we don't know what

:29:25.:29:29.

legislation Government will bring forward, and we don't know what

:29:30.:29:32.

amendment we will move, but we're clear that we will not vote to block

:29:33.:29:39.

it. OK, so you won't bow to stop it, but you could abstain? No, what we

:29:40.:29:47.

will do... Either you vote for or against all you abstain. There are

:29:48.:29:51.

too many unanswered questions. For instance, the position of EU

:29:52.:29:55.

migrants working and living in this country. You may not get the answer

:29:56.:29:59.

to that before Article 50 comes before the Commons, so what would

:30:00.:30:04.

you do then? We are giving to amend it. We can only tell you exactly how

:30:05.:30:09.

we will amend it when we understand what sort of legislation the

:30:10.:30:12.

Government is putting forward, and in the course of moving those

:30:13.:30:15.

amendments, we will ask the questions that the people of Britain

:30:16.:30:20.

whether they voted to leave remain want answered.

:30:21.:30:25.

When you come to a collective view, will there be a three line whip? I

:30:26.:30:33.

can't tell you, because we have not seen the government 's legislation.

:30:34.:30:38.

But when you see it, you will come to a collective view. Many regard

:30:39.:30:44.

this as extremely important. Will there be a three line whip on

:30:45.:30:50.

Labour's collective view? Because it is important, we shouldn't get ahead

:30:51.:30:55.

of ourselves. When we see what the Supreme Court says, and crucially,

:30:56.:30:59.

when we see what the government position is, you will hear what the

:31:00.:31:03.

whipping is. Will shadow ministers be able to defy any three line whip

:31:04.:31:10.

on this? That is not normally the case. But they did on an early vote

:31:11.:31:16.

that the government introduced on Article 50. Those who voted against

:31:17.:31:21.

it are still there. In the Blair years, you certainly couldn't defy a

:31:22.:31:26.

three line whip. We will see what happens going forward. I remember

:31:27.:31:32.

when the Tories were hopelessly divided over the EU. All these

:31:33.:31:35.

Maastricht votes and an list arguments. Now it is Labour. Just

:31:36.:31:42.

another symptom of Mr Corbyn's poor leadership. Not at all. Two thirds

:31:43.:31:54.

voted to leave, a third to remain. We are seeking to bring the country

:31:55.:31:59.

and the party together. We will do that by pointing out how disastrous

:32:00.:32:05.

a Tory Brexit would be. Meanwhile, around 80 Labour MPs will defy a

:32:06.:32:14.

three line whip. It's too early to say that. Will you publish what you

:32:15.:32:19.

believe the negotiating goal should be? We are clear on it. We think

:32:20.:32:24.

that the economy, jobs and living standards should be the priority.

:32:25.:32:30.

What Theresa May is saying is that holding her party together is her

:32:31.:32:36.

priority. She is putting party above country. Does Labour think we should

:32:37.:32:42.

remain members of the single market? Ideally, in terms of jobs and the

:32:43.:32:47.

economy, of course. Ritt -ish business thinks that as well. Is

:32:48.:32:52.

Labour policy that we should remain a member of the single market?

:32:53.:32:56.

Labour leaves that jobs and the economy comes first, and if they

:32:57.:33:00.

come first, you would want to remain part of the single market. But to

:33:01.:33:08.

remain a member? Jobs and the economy comes first, and to do that,

:33:09.:33:15.

ideally, guess. So with that, comes free movement of people, the

:33:16.:33:19.

jurisdiction of the European, and a multi-million never shipped thief.

:33:20.:33:25.

Is Labour prepared to pay that? Money is neither here nor there.

:33:26.:33:31.

Because the Tories will be asked to pay a lot of money... The EU has

:33:32.:33:40.

made it clear that you cannot have... I am asking for Labour's

:33:41.:33:47.

position. Our position is rooted in the reality, and the reality is that

:33:48.:33:53.

you cannot have the benefits of the member of the European Union,

:33:54.:33:56.

including being a member of the single market, without

:33:57.:33:59.

responsibility, including free movement of people. Free movement,

:34:00.:34:04.

is remaining under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Is

:34:05.:34:12.

that the Labour position? You've said that Labour wants to remain a

:34:13.:34:17.

member of the single market. That is the price tag that comes with it.

:34:18.:34:22.

Does Labour agree with paying that price tag? We are not pre-empting

:34:23.:34:27.

negotiation. Our goals are protect jobs and the British economy. Is it

:34:28.:34:33.

Labour's position that we remain a member of the customs union? Well,

:34:34.:34:42.

if we don't, I don't see how Theresa May can keep our promises and has

:34:43.:34:52.

unfettered access... You said Labour's position was clear. It is!

:34:53.:35:01.

It is clear that Theresa May... I am not asking about Theresa May. Is it

:35:02.:35:06.

Labour's position to remain a member of the customs union? It is Labour's

:35:07.:35:12.

position to do what is right for British industry. Depending on how

:35:13.:35:16.

the negotiations go, it may prove that coming out of the customs

:35:17.:35:21.

union, as Theresa May has indicated she wants to do, could prove

:35:22.:35:27.

catastrophic, and could actually destroy some of her promises. You do

:35:28.:35:33.

accept that if we are member of the customs union, we cannot do our own

:35:34.:35:40.

free trade deals? What free trade deals are you talking about? The

:35:41.:35:46.

ones that Labour might want to do in the future. First, we have to

:35:47.:35:51.

protect British jobs and British industries. If you are talking about

:35:52.:35:55.

free trade deals with Donald Trump, the danger is that Theresa May will

:35:56.:36:00.

get drawn into a free-trade deal with America that will open up the

:36:01.:36:07.

NHS to American corporate... The cards are in Theresa May's hands. If

:36:08.:36:12.

she takes us out of the single market, if she takes us out of the

:36:13.:36:16.

customs union, we will have to deal with that. How big a crisis for

:36:17.:36:22.

Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour loses both by-elections in February.

:36:23.:36:28.

I don't believe we will lose both. But if he did? I am not anticipating

:36:29.:36:37.

that. Is Labour lost two seats in a midterm of a Tory government, would

:36:38.:36:41.

that be business as usual? I'm not prepared to see us lose those seats,

:36:42.:36:45.

so I will not talk about something that will not happen. Thank you.

:36:46.:36:48.

You're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:49.:36:50.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:36:51.:36:52.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead,

:36:53.:36:55.

when we'll be talking to Business Minister Margot James

:36:56.:36:57.

about the government's new industrial strategy and that

:36:58.:37:00.

crucial Supreme Court ruling on Brexit.

:37:01.:37:03.

First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.

:37:04.:37:12.

Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:37:13.:37:14.

In today's programme: Crossing the line.

:37:15.:37:17.

Why the first Welsh tax for 800 years needs an urgent revamp.

:37:18.:37:26.

And we've heard from the PM, but what does the Welsh Conservative

:37:27.:37:29.

leader and leading Brexiteer Andrew RT Davies make of the

:37:30.:37:31.

But first, tomorrow morning Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood

:37:32.:37:35.

are expected to announce their plan for Wales after Brexit.

:37:36.:37:38.

The two leaders, along with the welsh Lib Dems have

:37:39.:37:42.

The two leaders, along with the Welsh Lib Dems have

:37:43.:37:44.

agreed a common platform where they will call

:37:45.:37:46.

for continued access to the single market,

:37:47.:37:48.

but also a fairer system of immigration.

:37:49.:37:49.

So how will all that play into the current situation?

:37:50.:37:52.

Two women who know all about the intricacies involved

:37:53.:37:55.

are the Labour AM and former MEP Eluned Morgan and Doctor Jo Hunt

:37:56.:37:58.

who's an expert in EU Law at Cardiff University.

:37:59.:38:07.

What do you know about what we can expect tomorrow morning? The joint

:38:08.:38:14.

platform between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood? I haven't seen a copy

:38:15.:38:19.

of the paper yet but this issue of having the best possible access to

:38:20.:38:23.

the single market is top of the list. There is an understanding that

:38:24.:38:28.

on immigration that there needs to be a different approach to

:38:29.:38:30.

immigration so that if people come here they need to be here with the

:38:31.:38:34.

job but there is also an understanding that we need people to

:38:35.:38:41.

be helping us with our services, our health service and social service in

:38:42.:38:43.

particular and we will be in trouble if some of these people have to go

:38:44.:38:49.

broke. Everyone accepts that we want the best access to the single

:38:50.:38:53.

market, everyone apart from North Korea have access to the single

:38:54.:38:56.

market, how do you think the balance has to be struck between getting as

:38:57.:39:00.

much access as possible and at the same time doing something on

:39:01.:39:04.

immigration because Bert two aren't necessarily compatible? If we get

:39:05.:39:09.

the access issue wrong it will impact jobs in this country

:39:10.:39:12.

massively but it would not just impact jobs but it would impact

:39:13.:39:17.

things like we're already seeing the haemorrhaging of jobs in the City of

:39:18.:39:21.

London which provide 12% of the income of this country. That is

:39:22.:39:26.

going to impact on jobs, not just on jobs but on our services in

:39:27.:39:30.

hospitals and schools and people need to understand that this is not

:39:31.:39:33.

just about jobs but about services and about what will happen in Wales

:39:34.:39:39.

in future. It is just a huge gamble with the future of this country.

:39:40.:39:46.

Joel Hunt, you are our expert and we still like experts. With the point

:39:47.:39:52.

of the balance between single market membership and freedom of

:39:53.:39:57.

immigration, freedom to travel, how closely tied are those things? We

:39:58.:40:01.

hear politicians saying they could do someone on freedom of movement

:40:02.:40:05.

and still of full membership of the single market, is it possible? Well,

:40:06.:40:11.

the single market, or the internal market, it is referred to in

:40:12.:40:15.

different ways, but it is the same thing, the idea that we have free

:40:16.:40:19.

movement of the factors of production, goods, services and

:40:20.:40:22.

capital, and to start with it was workers but that has been expanded

:40:23.:40:26.

out over the years. When we look at the Treaty tells us that the

:40:27.:40:31.

internal market comprises both ball things so they are, as we have seen

:40:32.:40:35.

so far indivisible, as far as we have experienced it so far. The

:40:36.:40:40.

thing to recognise with the free movement provisions is that none of

:40:41.:40:45.

them are absolute, there are restrictions and limitations

:40:46.:40:47.

available on all of those things and if we take the free movement of

:40:48.:40:51.

people, the free movement of workers, there is a piece of

:40:52.:40:56.

legislation, EU law, citizenship directive, that makes it very clear

:40:57.:41:03.

that EU citizens, those who have EU nationality, of one of the member

:41:04.:41:07.

states, they can take advantage of the free movement rights but it

:41:08.:41:11.

doesn't mean you can go and live in another member state without

:41:12.:41:14.

restrictions and have full access to all the services in another member

:41:15.:41:19.

state -- member state. The citizenship directive makes it clear

:41:20.:41:22.

you have the right to be in another member state for three months but

:41:23.:41:27.

after that, as far as EU law is concerned, then you need to be

:41:28.:41:31.

either economically active, a worker, or a student, or retired,

:41:32.:41:35.

but you have to have the resources to support yourself. Three months is

:41:36.:41:40.

something that most people did not know what was happening, is it Jock

:41:41.:41:48.

-- is it just not being implemented? It falls to the member states to

:41:49.:41:52.

implement those rules. We have a court of justice that interprets

:41:53.:41:56.

these provisions and it has taken quite a robust interpretation of

:41:57.:42:00.

what these rights are because the free movement rights are allied to

:42:01.:42:03.

the right of non-discrimination, that you get treated as though you

:42:04.:42:07.

are a citizen of the state you are residing in. When we talk about the

:42:08.:42:14.

directive not being a burden, talking about not being a burden, so

:42:15.:42:17.

you would not be fulfilling the terms of the directive if you became

:42:18.:42:20.

a burden on the social services of that member state, the court said

:42:21.:42:24.

not to be an unreasonable burden, so there is space there to interpret

:42:25.:42:30.

what that means. EU law provides for restrictions that perhaps haven't

:42:31.:42:35.

always been fully given effect to. The other side of that is that many

:42:36.:42:39.

voters would have voted with a view of regaining control of borders, but

:42:40.:42:44.

the other side is the freedom of the rules of the single market making it

:42:45.:42:47.

easy to trade internationally with countries outside the EU, do you not

:42:48.:42:53.

have a note of optimism about the ability of the UK to strike a deal

:42:54.:42:59.

there? The person with a note of optimism is Theresa May but I think

:43:00.:43:03.

it is slightly naive to think that we can tear up a relationship that

:43:04.:43:06.

has been developed over 40 years and is our biggest market by a long

:43:07.:43:13.

shot. It is what we hand, it is a bird in hand, and we are tearing up

:43:14.:43:18.

their relationship in the hope that we can develop relationships with

:43:19.:43:20.

countries across the rest of the globe and we know from the Donald

:43:21.:43:24.

Trump speech this week that he will put America first, if we have a

:43:25.:43:31.

negotiation with him it will not be about the British benefit, it will

:43:32.:43:35.

about the benefits of the United States so I think it is very high

:43:36.:43:38.

risk and I think we are playing about with peoples lives and

:43:39.:43:42.

livelihoods and it will impact on our schools and hospitals and we

:43:43.:43:47.

need wake up to the reality of what is going on in this country. We know

:43:48.:43:51.

that tomorrow Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood will have a plan for

:43:52.:43:57.

Brexit. What is the danger that Theresa May ignores it completely?

:43:58.:44:02.

What I'm hoping is that in the White Paper we will see an evidence -based

:44:03.:44:07.

report, which will show categorically the impact of going

:44:08.:44:14.

towards a World Trade Organisation agreements, for example, would have

:44:15.:44:19.

on this country. That is not necessarily what will happen. It is

:44:20.:44:26.

the worst-case scenario and it is being rather presumptuous to think

:44:27.:44:28.

that all the other member states will just roll over and say that

:44:29.:44:32.

they will give us agreements on all of these different sectors of the

:44:33.:44:36.

economy. I think we need to wake up to the reality and make sure also

:44:37.:44:41.

that we have a better relationship, a new relationship with the UK

:44:42.:44:44.

Government backed constitutionally we are also won a different footing.

:44:45.:44:50.

Touching on the element of the trade benefit for the EU to trade freely

:44:51.:44:54.

with the UK, but those remaining countries of the EU are fighting for

:44:55.:44:59.

their political future over the political union, how much of a

:45:00.:45:03.

conflict is there between those two elements within the remaining EU

:45:04.:45:10.

countries? Well, we have seen the economic case being made, that it

:45:11.:45:14.

would be in the interest of the EU to continue having free movement and

:45:15.:45:19.

open markets between the UK and the EU, but what is clear is that is not

:45:20.:45:25.

simply about economics, there is a story and the history and a

:45:26.:45:27.

narrative about being part of the European Union that the other member

:45:28.:45:34.

states have a different engagement with a different understanding of

:45:35.:45:36.

what being part of the European Union is and what it brings and

:45:37.:45:40.

gives them, so it will not simply be an economic decision that they take.

:45:41.:45:46.

So they are fighting for their future and it may be more punitive

:45:47.:45:52.

than is needed? I think the language of being punitive and damaging, I

:45:53.:45:56.

think that is not the position that they are taking. This is the deal,

:45:57.:46:01.

you are not going to get a better deal than being part of the EU. The

:46:02.:46:07.

EU brings you those rights to trade freely. If you want people to move.

:46:08.:46:12.

There is no better deal on the table than that. We are out of time at the

:46:13.:46:20.

moment so we have the Brexit tomorrow and the Supreme Court on

:46:21.:46:23.

Tuesday so there are surely more opportunities. Thank you very much

:46:24.:46:24.

for both of you. It's the first Welsh tax to be

:46:25.:46:26.

raised here for 800 years, but is the devolution of stamp duty

:46:27.:46:29.

going to cause a huge headache? There's been a call for urgent

:46:30.:46:32.

clarification over what it will mean for more than 1,000 properties

:46:33.:46:35.

which have land in both The Law Society says it

:46:36.:46:38.

could be a right mess! This has taken on great political

:46:39.:46:50.

significance over the past 20 years. Devolution has seen more and more

:46:51.:46:55.

power drift across the border into Wales and sparking several

:46:56.:46:58.

cross-border debates. As Wales prepares to raise its own taxes for

:46:59.:47:02.

the first time in 800 years there is a new set of questions to consider.

:47:03.:47:08.

Next year stamp duty will be replaced in Wales by the land

:47:09.:47:12.

transaction tax, but what does it mean for properties like this one.

:47:13.:47:19.

It has land in Powys and Shropshire. According to the map I am right on

:47:20.:47:24.

the border and legislation dictates that as of April next year anyone

:47:25.:47:27.

wanting to buy this property or one like it would have to make two

:47:28.:47:34.

separate tax returns, paying the new Welsh land transaction tax, based on

:47:35.:47:37.

the value of the land in Wales, and they would have to pay stamp duty on

:47:38.:47:42.

the parts of the property in England. We foresee that separate

:47:43.:47:47.

valuations of land and buildings will be required for English land

:47:48.:47:51.

and for Welsh land. Is that a difficult process? It is an extra

:47:52.:47:57.

additional cost for somebody that is selling. The changes will also

:47:58.:48:02.

complicate things for solicitors like this who crossed the border on

:48:03.:48:07.

the way to work in Oswestry. Emma and others in her profession are

:48:08.:48:11.

calling for clarity on how the new arrangement will work in areas like

:48:12.:48:16.

this. In terms of valuing the two separate areas of land, it has to be

:48:17.:48:21.

done on a just and reasonable basis. There is no further guidance as to

:48:22.:48:25.

what that means but it is ultimately the responsibility of the purchaser

:48:26.:48:29.

and their advisers to make sure the correct tax is paid. Are you want

:48:30.:48:37.

and need that mistakes will be made? If we don't get the clarity than I

:48:38.:48:42.

am sure there will be. That is a concern for solicitors and for

:48:43.:48:45.

buyers who are concerned with making sure the right taxes are paid. It

:48:46.:48:50.

has been found that there are more than 1000 properties straddling the

:48:51.:48:54.

border and experts believe there are many more. I don't think people

:48:55.:48:57.

understood until we looked into it in detail just how many properties

:48:58.:49:02.

could conceivably be caught up in broader issues. You would imagine

:49:03.:49:06.

that the common-sense approach would be to say that something is mostly

:49:07.:49:10.

in Wales or mostly in England and perhaps come to an arrangement that

:49:11.:49:13.

might solve that, but the law is very clear, the basis on which we

:49:14.:49:20.

have devolution is very clear, you must apportion that part of the land

:49:21.:49:23.

of the building or the property to either Wales if any part of it is in

:49:24.:49:28.

Wales, or to England if any part is in England. In terms of clearing up

:49:29.:49:34.

the issue, what must happen next? We need to find where the border is,

:49:35.:49:37.

which might sound curious because there is evidence of whether border

:49:38.:49:41.

is, but the land Registry that keeps a copy of every land transaction now

:49:42.:49:45.

in Wales and England hasn't needed to plot the border in the past so

:49:46.:49:49.

its digital maps do not include the border. The government must engage

:49:50.:49:56.

in those negotiations with the land Registry now. There is one year and

:49:57.:50:00.

two months left to sort it out, and to not only sort it out but have the

:50:01.:50:04.

IT stress tested and working on day one. If it is then the Welsh

:50:05.:50:09.

government had Wales will have the money it is entitled to but if it is

:50:10.:50:13.

not it will be a right mess to sort out really. The Welsh government

:50:14.:50:18.

says it is working with the land Registry to identify all the

:50:19.:50:21.

properties that could be affected and work is underway to make sure

:50:22.:50:25.

the border is properly mapped. The land Registry told us it is a

:50:26.:50:29.

complex issue but it is confident and appropriate resolution will be

:50:30.:50:33.

found. In the meantime, and with more powers in the offing for Wales,

:50:34.:50:39.

should we expect more similar difficulties in the future? Policy

:50:40.:50:43.

in Wales and England will diverges devolution extends and we see

:50:44.:50:46.

different policies emerge from both governments so naturally these are

:50:47.:50:49.

things which we would expect to see more of in the next few years as

:50:50.:50:54.

policy develops. We will develop ways of working out the effects of

:50:55.:51:00.

different types of policy changes and also as legislation is being

:51:01.:51:04.

implemented making sure that there is full public awareness of any

:51:05.:51:08.

changes of policy and changes in law. As for the land transaction

:51:09.:51:14.

tax, it will be introduced in Wales in April 2018 and we will see if it

:51:15.:51:19.

is enough time to provide answers to all the questions being asked along

:51:20.:51:20.

the border. We've heard what Labour,

:51:21.:51:22.

Plaid and the Lib Dems plan to do about Brexit,

:51:23.:51:24.

but what about the Conservatives? Their leader in Wales Andrew

:51:25.:51:26.

RT Davies is here now. Good morning. Thank you for coming

:51:27.:51:34.

in. Theresa May made a big speech last week and the headline figure

:51:35.:51:40.

coming out of the single market and the single market and what did you

:51:41.:51:44.

make of that speech overall? As you would expect me to say, it was a

:51:45.:51:49.

very strong speech and outlined the 12 principles be negotiations would

:51:50.:51:52.

be conducted under. Triggering article 50 will trigger those

:51:53.:51:57.

negotiations at the legislative format will bring all of that under

:51:58.:52:00.

one umbrella and it shows a government that is in control and

:52:01.:52:04.

shaping its destiny and the destiny of this country, unlike what we are

:52:05.:52:07.

seeing here in Wales from Welsh Labour. We have heard earlier in the

:52:08.:52:15.

programme there are dangers of losing the membership of the single

:52:16.:52:20.

market, should it be a concern? Well, Eluned is talking the same

:52:21.:52:24.

language she spoke prior to June 23. We have a mandate here in Wales. The

:52:25.:52:31.

people of Wales along with United Kingdom voted to renegotiate our

:52:32.:52:35.

relationship with Europe, pull us out of Europe, I am not sure if

:52:36.:52:40.

Eluned is talking membership, participation, access, depending on

:52:41.:52:43.

the day the Labour position changes and what is important for us is that

:52:44.:52:48.

we are able to trade and we can get access but we get access on a level

:52:49.:52:51.

playing field. The important thing that people told us in the

:52:52.:52:54.

referendum was that sovereignty needed to come back to the United

:52:55.:52:59.

Kingdom and decisions be made here in the United

:53:00.:53:10.

Kingdom. If you accept that then you can move forward but sadly Eluned

:53:11.:53:13.

another Labour politicians and unplugged Cumbria in particular

:53:14.:53:16.

cannot come to terms with that. The problem with an impediment on our

:53:17.:53:18.

ability to trade with the European Union is when you look at how many

:53:19.:53:21.

of our exports depend on those countries of the EU then it is a

:53:22.:53:24.

huge chunk of our exports, over two thirds goes to European Union and

:53:25.:53:27.

the rest of the world is almost not there. Anything that impairs that

:53:28.:53:31.

ability will be a huge danger to the economy, went it? That is why the

:53:32.:53:37.

Cabinet in London has been crafting the ability to trade and access with

:53:38.:53:41.

markets, whether it is European or global, and we have a department

:53:42.:53:46.

dedicated to bringing investment into the United Kingdom. I am in an

:53:47.:53:51.

industry, agriculture, that has good trading relations with Europe, but

:53:52.:53:56.

do not forget that your trades with us and in agricultural produce, the

:53:57.:53:59.

Republic of Ireland, for example, depends on access to our market. We

:54:00.:54:03.

want a strong Europe and a strong United Kingdom, this is not about

:54:04.:54:07.

doing someone over. Regrettably Carwyn Jones turns to all the

:54:08.:54:12.

parties here in Wales to see if there could be a consensus around a

:54:13.:54:17.

negotiating position in Wales and that is a missed opportunity. You

:54:18.:54:21.

wrote an article for the Sunday Times this morning and said that in

:54:22.:54:25.

recent years the Welsh economy has become too reliant on EU market,

:54:26.:54:29.

that 68%, is it who I? Doesn't need to be lower? I want to trade

:54:30.:54:37.

globally and with our neighbours on the neocons and so wherever trade

:54:38.:54:40.

can be sort we need access into those markets. I am a businessman

:54:41.:54:45.

and I have traded all my life so we want a strong Europe and a strong

:54:46.:54:49.

United Kingdom and the principles that Theresa May outlined, the 12

:54:50.:54:53.

tenets of the negotiating principle but she has put on the table from

:54:54.:54:56.

the speech on Tuesday outlined what the UK Government would be doing. It

:54:57.:55:01.

is a government that has lead and Remainers in it. They sit on the

:55:02.:55:05.

front row. When Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood make their speech

:55:06.:55:10.

tomorrow in London it will just be the coalition pre-June 23. That will

:55:11.:55:16.

not help the Welsh cause. What we will have is in North America, the

:55:17.:55:20.

second largest chunk on our chart, it has a brand-new president who

:55:21.:55:25.

says America first, by American, high American, we will not get a

:55:26.:55:29.

look in. We are, I am comments to that, because you have a businessman

:55:30.:55:34.

in the White House who realises that to create American jobs you need

:55:35.:55:38.

trade and you need economic activity and ultimately we are a nation that

:55:39.:55:42.

has traded globally and traded with our continental cousins to make sure

:55:43.:55:48.

that we have a successful country. He won the election on putting

:55:49.:55:55.

America first and not putting trade. But America became a superpower by

:55:56.:55:59.

trade and driving trade around the globe. In Wales we have a very

:56:00.:56:02.

strong off and we have a strong United Kingdom government, batting

:56:03.:56:06.

for Wales, but we have a disorganised message coming from

:56:07.:56:10.

Wales under Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood who signed up to his message,

:56:11.:56:15.

that has changed numerous times since June 23. The other devolved

:56:16.:56:20.

administrations were able to table their proposals last birthday and

:56:21.:56:21.

Northern Ireland doesn't even have a government but they had proposals on

:56:22.:56:25.

the table. Carwyn Jones had nothing on the table last Thursday. You have

:56:26.:56:31.

an article in the Sunday paper, as does Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood

:56:32.:56:34.

today and they say they want a plan that could tighten immigration

:56:35.:56:39.

controls without breaching EU rules on freedom of movement. Is that

:56:40.:56:43.

something you can sign up to? I am on record as being a pragmatist when

:56:44.:56:47.

it comes to immigration, I think culturally and socially and --

:56:48.:56:52.

economically it helps and benefits countries so actually I do believe

:56:53.:56:56.

that we have to respond to the outcome of the referendum but Europe

:56:57.:56:59.

needs to respond as well to its principles around the single market.

:57:00.:57:03.

When the single market was created and the tenets underpinned the

:57:04.:57:07.

single market, the mass movement of people around Europe was not a

:57:08.:57:10.

consideration. It is today and when you look at one of Angela Merkel 's

:57:11.:57:16.

key tenants today, talking up the possibility of a positive Brexit

:57:17.:57:19.

then we can really see a change in direction on the continent. I am

:57:20.:57:24.

positive about these negotiations. We just heard from an expert on EU

:57:25.:57:29.

law from Cardiff University is saying that the only economic

:57:30.:57:32.

freedom you have is to come here for three months but it hasn't been

:57:33.:57:35.

implemented by the UK Government in the last six years and who has been

:57:36.:57:40.

in charge that? Theresa May. Why has she not done more with the powers

:57:41.:57:44.

she already has? I will point to many commentators who say the

:57:45.:57:48.

problems around immigration as they see it and community see it began in

:57:49.:57:53.

2004 when under various agreement Tony Blair could have put safeguards

:57:54.:57:59.

in and restrictions in but he chose not to. Communities spoke with one

:58:00.:58:03.

voice on June 23 and we are leaving the European Union so let us get on

:58:04.:58:08.

with it. Sadly for Wales Carwyn Jones is going down the narrow path

:58:09.:58:12.

of isolationism when he is talking his politics and he is leaning on

:58:13.:58:16.

Plaid Cymru as a crutch to be safe with. Ultimately we could have had a

:58:17.:58:20.

political axe consensus here in Wales that would lift the vision for

:58:21.:58:26.

Wales and the aspiration for Wales. Where do you think you could have

:58:27.:58:30.

found common ground with Carwyn Jones Leanne Wood when they say

:58:31.:58:33.

immigration is not a problem? It is difficult to pre-empt the paper that

:58:34.:58:36.

they will bring forward tomorrow because I have not seen it. Where

:58:37.:58:42.

would you have tried to find agreement? If I can find agreement

:58:43.:58:47.

within that paper I will be the first to recognise it but ultimately

:58:48.:58:50.

what I am saying to you is that we weren't able to put a paper on the

:58:51.:58:54.

table last Thursday when the other devolved administrations did that we

:58:55.:58:57.

have been behind the curve at every opportunity on this because they are

:58:58.:59:01.

in denial about the referendum result on June 23. We are leaving

:59:02.:59:05.

the European Union, let's get on with it and build strong trading

:59:06.:59:09.

relationships with the Globe and our cousins on the European continent

:59:10.:59:15.

because ultimately a strong Europe and the strong UK and a strong

:59:16.:59:17.

global economy is where we all prosper. Should the assembly have a

:59:18.:59:21.

say before the final deal? Should they have a vote to ratify the final

:59:22.:59:27.

deal? No, because Westminster is the sovereign parliament in this

:59:28.:59:30.

discussion. What the assembly and the assembly government should be

:59:31.:59:33.

doing is making sure we have a health service that gets people of

:59:34.:59:36.

the waiting list and they should be dealing with the economy and the

:59:37.:59:41.

situation as ?90 a week less pay goes to workers in Wales. They

:59:42.:59:47.

should drive up education standards and they have driven those standards

:59:48.:59:50.

down and they are I coalition we are being asked to trust to bring these

:59:51.:59:54.

negotiations forward in Wales and I wouldn't.

:59:55.:59:56.

We'll bring you the latest on Brexit and anything else that's going on,

:59:57.:00:00.

Don't forget we're @walespolitics on Twitter, but for now that's

:00:01.:00:04.

all from me, diolch am wylio, thanks for watching.

:00:05.:00:06.

have to do this. Thank you to you both.

:00:07.:00:09.

What exactly is the government's industrial strategy?

:00:10.:00:19.

Will ministers lose their supreme court battle over Brexit, and,

:00:20.:00:23.

Well, tomorrow Theresa May is launching the government's

:00:24.:00:35.

industrial strategy - and to talk about that we're joined

:00:36.:00:39.

by the Business Minister, Margot James - welcome to the show.

:00:40.:00:46.

When you look at what has already been released in advance of the

:00:47.:00:54.

Prime Minister's statement, it was embargoed for last night, it's not

:00:55.:00:59.

really an industrial strategy, it's just another skills strategy, of

:01:00.:01:03.

which we have had about six since the war, and our skills training is

:01:04.:01:10.

among the worst in Western Europe? There will be plenty more to be

:01:11.:01:15.

announced tomorrow in what is really a discussion document in the

:01:16.:01:18.

preparation of an industrial strategy which we intend to launch

:01:19.:01:23.

properly later in the year. Let's look at skills. You are allocating

:01:24.:01:31.

117 of funding to establish institutes of technology. How many?

:01:32.:01:38.

The exact number is to be agreed, but the spend is there, and it will

:01:39.:01:43.

be on top of what we are doing to the university, technical

:01:44.:01:46.

colleges... How many were lit bio create? We don't know exactly, but

:01:47.:01:53.

we want to put them in areas where young people are performing under

:01:54.:01:57.

the national average. But if you don't know how many, what is the

:01:58.:02:04.

basis of 170 million? That is the amount the Treasury have released.

:02:05.:02:07.

The something that is very important, we are agreed we need to

:02:08.:02:12.

devote more resources to vocational training and get it on a par with

:02:13.:02:18.

academic qualifications. I looked on the website of my old university,

:02:19.:02:24.

the University of Glasgow, the Russell group universities. Its

:02:25.:02:29.

spending budget every year is over 600 million. That's one University.

:02:30.:02:37.

And yet you have a mere 170 million foreign unspecified number of

:02:38.:02:42.

institutes of technology. It hasn't got equality with the academics? You

:02:43.:02:47.

have to remember that just as you have quoted figures from Glasgow

:02:48.:02:51.

University there are further education colleges all over the

:02:52.:02:56.

country. The government is already spending on 16 to 19-year-olds. But

:02:57.:03:04.

also, we are going to be adding... This is new money that is all to the

:03:05.:03:09.

good, because we are already spending a lot. We have already

:03:10.:03:14.

created 2 million more apprentices since 2010. That many are not in

:03:15.:03:19.

what we would call the stem skills, and a lot come nowhere near what the

:03:20.:03:24.

Dutch, Germans and Austrians would have. I'm not clear how another 170

:03:25.:03:30.

million would do. You said it is more than skills. In what way is

:03:31.:03:34.

this industrial strategy different from what Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne

:03:35.:03:46.

did before? It's different because it is involving every single

:03:47.:03:48.

government department, and bringing together everything that government

:03:49.:03:50.

does in a bid to make Britain more competitive as it disengages from

:03:51.:03:53.

the European Union. That is what the last Labour government did. They

:03:54.:03:59.

will much more targeted interventions. Under the Labour

:04:00.:04:03.

government, the auto industry got some benefit. A few more sectors

:04:04.:04:08.

were broached under the coalition government. This is all about

:04:09.:04:13.

communities all over the country, some of whom have fallen behind in

:04:14.:04:18.

terms of wage growth and good jobs. The Prime Minister has already

:04:19.:04:23.

announced 2 billion as a research and development priority in specific

:04:24.:04:31.

technologies, robotics, artificial intelligence, medical technology,

:04:32.:04:34.

satellites... So you are doing what has been done before. There is

:04:35.:04:40.

nothing new about this. Wait until tomorrow, because there will be some

:04:41.:04:45.

new strands emerging. It is the beginning of the dialogue with

:04:46.:04:48.

industry and with workers, and the responses will be invited up until

:04:49.:04:54.

April. That will inform a wider strategy that goes beyond skills. I

:04:55.:05:00.

have moved on to beyond them. I'm slightly puzzled as to how the

:05:01.:05:05.

government knows where to invest in robotics, when it can't even provide

:05:06.:05:10.

the NHS with a decent IT system. Discuss. I have to say I find it

:05:11.:05:15.

bizarre that the government is making an announcement about an

:05:16.:05:18.

amount of money and don't know where it's going. This is typical of all

:05:19.:05:23.

governments over all political shoes, which is total disregard for

:05:24.:05:29.

technical education, so different from Germany, who actually invest in

:05:30.:05:37.

the technological side. Germany has a long history. We want to emulate

:05:38.:05:44.

some of the best of what German companies do. Siemens sponsor

:05:45.:05:48.

primary schools, for example. We want to get a dialogue on with

:05:49.:05:54.

business. We don't want to decide where this money is going. By the

:05:55.:05:59.

way, it was 4.7 billion that the government has agreed to invest in

:06:00.:06:05.

science and research, which is the most significant increase in

:06:06.:06:08.

decades. Can you remind us what happened in Northern Ireland, when

:06:09.:06:13.

the government invested money in state-of-the-art technology for

:06:14.:06:16.

energy? No one needs to be reminded of that, and that is not what we are

:06:17.:06:24.

doing. We are inviting business and industry to advise where that money

:06:25.:06:29.

is best spent. That's very different from government deciding that a

:06:30.:06:34.

particular technology is for the future. The government's chief

:06:35.:06:39.

scientific adviser has determined that we will invest a huge amount in

:06:40.:06:45.

battery technology, which should benefit the electric car industry,

:06:46.:06:50.

and... This is taxpayers' money. Who gets it? Ultimately, business will

:06:51.:06:57.

get it, but often only when there is a considerable amount of private

:06:58.:07:02.

sector finance also drawn in. But who is held to account? Various

:07:03.:07:10.

government departments at local authorities will hold this list to

:07:11.:07:14.

account. A lot of it is about releasing private capital as well.

:07:15.:07:21.

Thank you very much. This week, the Supreme Court, I think we know the

:07:22.:07:28.

ruling is coming on Tuesday. And the expectation is that the judges will

:07:29.:07:32.

say Parliament will have to vote to trigger. Is this all much ado about

:07:33.:07:38.

nothing? Parliament will vote to trigger, and the government will win

:07:39.:07:41.

in the Lords and the Commons by substantial majorities, and it will

:07:42.:07:45.

be triggered? Completely. We've known that. Parliament is voted.

:07:46.:07:50.

Everyone is pretty confident that the Supreme Court will uphold the

:07:51.:07:54.

High Court's decision and say it has to go to MPs. There will be a bit of

:07:55.:08:03.

toing and froing among MPs on amendments. You heard Diane Abbott's

:08:04.:08:09.

slightly car crash interview there. The Lib Dems may throw something in,

:08:10.:08:13.

but we will trigger Article 50 by the end of March. If it also says

:08:14.:08:20.

that the roll of Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast should be picked up,

:08:21.:08:25.

that could complicate matters. Absolutely. That could delay the

:08:26.:08:29.

planned triggering of Article 50 before the end of March. Not what

:08:30.:08:33.

they say about the Westminster Parliament, because it is clear that

:08:34.:08:38.

it was. I never understood the furore about that original judgment,

:08:39.:08:43.

because every MP made it clear they wouldn't block it. Even though Diane

:08:44.:08:48.

Abbott was evasive on several fronts, she said they wouldn't block

:08:49.:08:53.

it. You are right, if they give a vote, or give some authorisation for

:08:54.:08:58.

the Scottish Parliament and other devolved assemblies, that might

:08:59.:09:02.

delay the whole sequence. That is the only significant thing to watch

:09:03.:09:08.

out for. Watch out on Tuesday. Mrs May goes to Washington. It will be

:09:09.:09:13.

another movie in the making! I would suggest that she has a tricky line

:09:14.:09:18.

to follow. She has got to be seen to be taking advantage of the fact that

:09:19.:09:23.

there is a very pro-British, pro-Brexit president in the Oval

:09:24.:09:28.

Office, who I am told is prepared to expend political capital on this.

:09:29.:09:33.

But on the other hand, to make sure that she is not what we used to call

:09:34.:09:45.

Mr Blair, George Bush's poodle. It is very difficult, and who would not

:09:46.:09:49.

want to be a fly on the wall in that meeting! I can't think of anyone in

:09:50.:09:52.

the world who would despise Mr Trump more than Mrs May, and for him, he

:09:53.:09:58.

dislikes any woman who does not look like a supermodel, no disrespected

:09:59.:10:08.

Mrs May. Most of it is actually anti-EU, and I think we should

:10:09.:10:12.

capitalise it. Let's get the Queen to earn her money, roll out the red

:10:13.:10:17.

carpet, invite him to dinner, spend the night, what ever we need...

:10:18.:10:24.

Trump at Balmoral! Here is the issue, because the agenda is, as we

:10:25.:10:29.

heard from Ted Malloch earlier, that this is not an administration that

:10:30.:10:34.

has much time for the EU, EU integration or Germany. I think

:10:35.:10:37.

Germany will be the second biggest loser to begin with. They will not

:10:38.:10:43.

even give a date for Angela Merkel to meet the president. This is an

:10:44.:10:51.

opportunity for Mrs May... It is a huge. It could sideline talks of the

:10:52.:10:59.

punishment beating from Germany. The Trump presidency has completely

:11:00.:11:06.

changed the field on Brexit. Along came Donald Trump, and Theresa May

:11:07.:11:09.

has this incredible opportunity here. Not of her making, but she has

:11:10.:11:15.

played her cards well. To an officially be the EU emissary to

:11:16.:11:21.

Washington, to get some sort of broker going. That gives us huge

:11:22.:11:26.

extra leveraged in the Brexit negotiations. People around the

:11:27.:11:30.

world think Germany as a currency manipulator, that it is benefiting

:11:31.:11:34.

from an underpriced euro, hence the huge surplus it runs of America, and

:11:35.:11:39.

they think it is disgraceful that a country that runs a massive budget

:11:40.:11:44.

surplus spends only 1.2% of its GDP on defence, and America runs a

:11:45.:11:49.

massive deficit and needs to spend a lot more. He's going for Germany.

:11:50.:11:55.

And what a massive shift. I think Obama was quite open, in a farewell

:11:56.:12:00.

interview, that he felt closer to Merkel than any other European

:12:01.:12:05.

leader. And Jamie kind of reflected that in our discussion. Yes, that's

:12:06.:12:12.

very interesting discussion. I think she was the last person he spoke to

:12:13.:12:17.

in the White House, Obama. And now you are getting the onslaught from

:12:18.:12:23.

Trump. This Thatcher- Reagan imagery is dangerous, though. Blair was

:12:24.:12:28.

hypnotised by it and was too scared to criticise Bush, because he wanted

:12:29.:12:33.

to be seen in that light, and we know where that led. Cameron

:12:34.:12:38.

similarly with Obama, which presented him with problems, as

:12:39.:12:41.

Obama didn't regard him as his number one pin up in Europe. I would

:12:42.:12:48.

put a note of caution in there about the Thatcher - Reagan parallel.

:12:49.:12:53.

Everything Trump is doing now is different from before, so Mrs May

:12:54.:12:58.

should not have any of these previous relationships in her mind.

:12:59.:13:04.

That is not entirely true. Donald Trump aches to be the new Ronald

:13:05.:13:11.

Reagan. He may be impeached first! He sees her as the new Margaret

:13:12.:13:15.

Thatcher, and that may her leveraged with him. Thank you.

:13:16.:13:23.

We'll be back here at the same time next week, and you can catch up

:13:24.:13:28.

on all the latest political news on the Daily Politics,

:13:29.:13:30.

In the meantime, remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:31.:13:34.

It's just pain, but it doesn't feel like pain,

:13:35.:14:13.

it feels much more violent, dark and exciting.

:14:14.:14:17.

'Alla I ddeud 'tha chi bod "man flu" yn bodoli.

:14:18.:14:20.

Andrew Neil, Arwyn Jones and guests including shadow home secretary Diane Abbott provide reaction to Theresa May's Brexit speech and look at the inauguration of US president Donald Trump. On the political panel are Julia Hartley-Brewer of talkRadio, Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun and broadcaster and journalist Steve Richards.