26/03/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


26/03/2017

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It's Sunday morning, this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:43.:00:47.

The police believe the Westminster attacker Khalid Masood acted alone,

:00:48.:00:49.

but do the security services have the resources and

:00:50.:00:51.

We'll ask the leader of the House of Commons.

:00:52.:00:55.

As Theresa May prepares to trigger Brexit, details of

:00:56.:00:58.

Will a so-called Henry VIII clause give the Government too much power

:00:59.:01:04.

Ukip's only MP, Douglas Carswell, quits the party saying it's "job

:01:05.:01:08.

done" - we'll speak to him and the party's

:01:09.:01:13.

Later in the programme, Carwyn Jones on Labour divisions,

:01:14.:01:15.

elections and retirement, and as the Article 50

:01:16.:01:17.

letter is sent, what role will Wales play in Brexit?

:01:18.:01:19.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:01:20.:01:32.

panel in the business - Toby Young, Polly Toynbee

:01:33.:01:35.

and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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First, it was the most deadly terrorist attack

:01:42.:01:43.

The attacker was shot dead trying to storm Parliament,

:01:44.:01:47.

but not before he'd murdered four people and injured 50 -

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one of those is still in a critical condition in hospital.

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His target was the very heart of our democracy,

:01:54.:01:55.

the Palace of Westminster, and he came within metres

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of the Prime Minister and senior Cabinet ministers.

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Without the quick actions of the Defence Secretary's

:02:02.:02:05.

close protection detail, fortuitously in the vicinity

:02:06.:02:07.

at the time, the outcome could have been even worse.

:02:08.:02:15.

Janan Ganesh it is four days now, getting on. What thoughts should we

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be having this weekend? First of all, Theresa May's Parliamentary

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response was exemplary. In many ways, the moment she arrived as

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prime minister and her six years as Home Secretary showed a positive

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way. No other serving politician is as steeped in counterterror and

:02:36.:02:38.

national security experience as she is and I think it showed. As to

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whether politics is going now, it looks like the Government will put

:02:44.:02:46.

more pressure on companies like Google and Facebook to monitor

:02:47.:02:52.

sensor radical content that flows through their channels, and I wonder

:02:53.:02:56.

whether beyond that the Government, not just our Government but around

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the world, will start to open this question of, during a terror attack,

:03:02.:03:05.

as it is unfolding, should there be restrictions on what can appear on

:03:06.:03:09.

social media? I was on Twitter at the time last week, during the

:03:10.:03:13.

attack, and people were posting things which may have been useful to

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the perpetrators, not on that occasion but future occasions.

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Should there be restrictions on what and how much people can post while

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an attack is unfolding? I think we have learned that this is like the

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weather, it is going to happen, it is going to happen all over the

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world and in every country and we deal with it well, we deal with it

:03:36.:03:40.

stoically, perhaps we are more used to it than some. We had the IRA for

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years, we know how to make personal risk assessments, how to know the

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chances of being in the wrong place at the wrong time are infinitesimal,

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so people in London didn't say, I'm not going to go to the centre of

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London today, everything carried on just the same. Because we know that

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the odds of it, being unlucky, are very small. Life is dangerous, this

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is another very small risk and it is the danger of being alive. I think

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from an Isis Islamist propaganda point of view, it showed just what a

:04:16.:04:19.

poor target London and the House of Commons is, and it is hard to

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imagine the emergency services and local people, international

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visitors, reacting much better than they did. And the fact that our

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Muslim mayor was able to make an appearance so quickly afterwards

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shows, I think, that we are not city riddled with anti-Islamic prejudice.

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It couldn't really have been a better advertisement for the values

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that is attacking. OK, thank you for that.

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So, four days after the attack, what more do we know

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The police have made 11 arrests, but only one remains

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Here's Adam with the latest on the investigation.

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According to a police timeline, that's how long it took

:05:01.:05:05.

Khalid Masood to drive through a crowd on Westminster

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to crash his car into Parliament's perimeter...

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to fatally stab PC Keith Palmer, before being shot by a bodyguard

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The public are leaving tributes to the dead at Westminster.

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The family of PC Palmer released a statement saying:

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"We would like to express our gratitude to the people

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who were with Keith in his last moments and who were

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There was nothing more you could have done,

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you did your best and we are just grateful he was not alone."

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Investigators say Masood's motive may have gone to the grave with him.

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Officers think he acted alone, despite reports he spent a WhatsApp

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The Home Secretary now has such encrypted messaging

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There should be no place for terrorists to hide.

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We need to make sure that organisations like WhatsApp,

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and there are plenty of others like that, don't provide a secret

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place for terrorists to communicate with each other.

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It used to be that people would steam open envelopes or just

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listen in on phones when they wanted to find out what people were doing,

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legally, through warrantry, but in this situation

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we need to make sure that our intelligence services

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have the ability to get into situations like encrypted

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She will ask the tech industry to suggest solutions

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at a meeting this week, although she didn't rule out

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But for those caught up in the attack, perhaps it will be

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..not the policy implications that will echo the loudest.

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We're joined now from the Hague by the Director of Europol,

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the European Police Agency, Rob Wainwright.

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What role has Europol played in the aftermath of Wednesday's attacks? I

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can tell you we are actively supporting the investigation,

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because it is a live case I cannot of course go into the details, but

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to give you some context, Andrew, this is one of about 80

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counterterrorist cases we have been supporting across Europe this year,

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using a platform to shed thousands of intelligence messages between the

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very large counterterrorist community in Europe, and also

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tracking flows of terrorist finance, illegal firearms, and monitoring

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this terrible propaganda online as well. All of that is being made

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available now to the Metropolitan Police in London for this case. Do

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we know if there is any European link to those who may have inspired

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or directed Khalid Massoud? That is an active part of the inquiry being

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led by Metropolitan Police and it is not for me to comment or speculate

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on that. There are links of course in terms of the profile of the

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attacker and the way in which he launched these terrible events in

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Westminster, and those that we've seen, for example, in the Berlin

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Christmas market last year and the attack in Nice in the summer of last

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year, clear similarities between the fact that the attackers involved

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have criminal background, somewhat dislocated from society, each of

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them using a hired or stolen vehicle to deliberately aim at pedestrians

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in a crowded place and using a secondary weapon, whether it is a

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gun or a knife. So we are seeing a trend, I think, of the kind of

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attacks across Europe in the last couple of years and some of that at

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least was played out unfortunately in Westminster this week as well.

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Mass and was known to the emergency services, so were many of those

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involved in the Brussels, Paris and Berlin attacks, so something is

:08:48.:08:51.

going wrong here, we are not completely across this, are we?

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Actually most attacks are being stopped. This was I think at least

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the 14th terrorist plot or attempted attack in Britain since 2013 and the

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only one that has got through, and that fits a picture of what we see

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in France last year, 17 attempted attacks that were stopped, for

:09:12.:09:16.

example. Unfortunately some of them get through. But people on the

:09:17.:09:21.

security services' Radar getting through, in Westminster, Brussels,

:09:22.:09:24.

Paris and Berlin. There is clearly something we are not doing that

:09:25.:09:30.

could stop that. Again, if you look at what happened in Berlin and at

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least the first indications from what police are saying in London,

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these are people that haven't really appeared on Baha'i target list of

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the authorities, they are on the edge at best of radicalised

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community -- on the high target list. When you are dealing with a

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dispersed community of thousands of radicalised, Senate radicalised

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individuals, it is very difficult to monitor them 24/7, very difficult

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when these people, almost out of the blue and carry out the attacks that

:10:02.:10:06.

they did. I think you have to find a sense of perspective here around the

:10:07.:10:10.

work and the pressures of the work and the difficult target choices

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that police and security authorities have to make around Europe. The Home

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Secretary here in London said this morning it is time to tackle apps

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like WhatsApp, which we believe Massoud was using, because they

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encrypt from end to end and it is difficult for the security services

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to know what is happening there. What do you say, are you up for

:10:31.:10:36.

that? Across the hundreds of cases we have supported in recent years

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there is no doubt that encryption, encrypted communications are

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becoming more and more prominent in the way terrorists communicate, more

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and more of a problem, therefore, a real challenge for investigators,

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and that the heart of this is a stark inconsistency between the

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ability of the police to lawfully intercept telephone calls, but not

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when those messages are exchanged via a social media messaging board,

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for example, and that is an inconsistency in society and we have

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to find a solution through appropriate legislation perhaps of

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these technologies and law enforcement agencies working in a

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more constructive way. So you back that? I agree that there is

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certainly a problem, absolutely. We know there was a problem, I'm trying

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to find out if you agree with the Home Secretary's solution? I agree

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certainly with her calls for changes to be made. What the legislative

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solution for that is of course for her and other lawmakers to decide

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but from my point of view, yes, I would agree something has to be done

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to make sure we can apply more consistent interception of

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communication in all parts of the way in which terrorists invade our

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lives. Rob Wainwright of Europol, thank you very much.

:11:57.:11:58.

Here with me in the studio now is the Leader of the House

:11:59.:12:01.

What did last week's attack tell us about the security of the Palace of

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Westminster? It told us that we are looked after by some very

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courageous, very professional police officers. There is clearly going to

:12:12.:12:20.

be a lessons learned with you, as you would expect after any incident

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of this kind. That will look very carefully at what worked well but

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also whether there are changes that need to be made, that is already

:12:29.:12:35.

under way. And that is being run by professionals, by the police and

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security director at Parliament... Palace authorities, we will get

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reports from the professionals, particularly our own Parliamentary

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security director, and just as security matters in parliament are

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kept under constant review, if there are changes that need to be made as

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a result, then they will need to be made. Let's look at some of the

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issues it has thrown up, as we get some distance from these appalling

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events when our first reaction was always the people who lose their

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lives and suffer, and then we start to become a bit more analytical. Is

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it true that the authorities removed armed guards from Cowbridge gate,

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where the attacker made his entry, because they looked to threatening

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for tourists? -- carriage gate. No, the idea that a protest from MPs led

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to operational changes simply not the case. What happened in the last

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couple of years is that the security arrangements in new Palace Yard have

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actually been strengthened, but I don't think your view was would

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expect me to go into a detailed commentary upon operational security

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matters. Why were the armed guards removed? There are armed guards at

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all times in the Palace of Westminster, it is a matter for the

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security authorities and in particular for the police and direct

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command of those officers to decide how they are best deployed. Is it

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because, as some from Scotland Yard sources have reported to the papers

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this morning, was it done because of staffing shortages? I'm in no

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position to comment on the details of the operation but my

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understanding is that the number of people available is what the police

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and the security authorities working together have decided to deploy and

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that they think was commensurate with the threat that we faced. Is it

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not of concern that as the incident unfolded the gates were left

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unguarded by armed and unarmed, they were just unguarded, so much so

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that, as it was going on, a career with a parcel on a moped at was able

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to drive through? -- up career. I think we will need to examine that

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case as part of looking into any lessons learned, but what I don't

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yet know, because the police are still interviewing everybody

:15:06.:15:07.

involved, witnesses and police officers involved, was exactly who

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was standing where in the vicinity of the murder at a particular time.

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We have seen pictures, the gates were unguarded as people were

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concentrating on what was happening to the police man and to the

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attacker, but the delivery man was able to come through the gates with

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a parcel?! You have seen a particular camera angle, I think it

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is important before we rush to judgment, and we shouldn't be

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pointing fingers, we need... We are trying to get to the bottom of it.

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To get to the bottom of it means we have to look at what all the

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witnesses and all the police officers involved say about what

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happened, and then there needs to be a decision taken about what if any

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changes need to be made in light of that.

:15:59.:16:02.

We know the attacker was stopped in his tracks by the Defence

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Secretary's bodyguard, where was the armed roving unit that had replaced

:16:12.:16:15.

the armed guard at the gate? I cannot comment on operation details

:16:16.:16:20.

but my understanding is there were other armed officers who would have

:16:21.:16:24.

been able to prevent the attacker from getting to the chamber, as has

:16:25.:16:29.

been alleged it would be possible for him to do. Were you aware that a

:16:30.:16:34.

so-called table top simulation, carried out by Scotland Yard and the

:16:35.:16:39.

Parliamentary authorities, ended with four terrorists in this

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simulation able to storm parliament and killed dozens of MPs? No, that

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is the first time that has been mentioned to me. You are the leader

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of the house. These matters are dealt with by security professionals

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who are involved, they are advised by a security committee, chaired by

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the Deputy Speaker, but we do not debate operational details in

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public. I'm not asking for a debate, I raise this because it's been

:17:18.:17:22.

reported because it's quite clear that after this simulation, it

:17:23.:17:25.

raised serious questions about the security of the palace. Actions

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should have followed. What I've said to you is that these matters are

:17:33.:17:39.

kept under constant review and that there are always changes made both

:17:40.:17:43.

in the deployment of individual officers and security guards of the

:17:44.:17:49.

palace staff and other plans to strengthen the hard security of the

:17:50.:17:53.

perimeter. If you look back at Hansard December last year, they was

:17:54.:18:00.

a plan already been brought forward to strengthen the security at

:18:01.:18:04.

carriage Gates, looking at questions of access. Will there be armed

:18:05.:18:17.

guards now? You need to look not just at armed guards, you need to

:18:18.:18:22.

look at the entirety of the security engagements including fencing.

:18:23.:18:25.

There's lots about the security we don't need to know and shouldn't

:18:26.:18:29.

know, but whether or not there are armed guards is something we will

:18:30.:18:33.

find out quite soon and I'm asking you if you think there should be. If

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you think the judgment is by our security experts that there need to

:18:41.:18:43.

be more armed guards in certain places, then they will be deployed

:18:44.:18:49.

accordingly, but I think before we rush to make conclusions about

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lessons to be learned from Wednesday's appalling attack, it is

:18:54.:18:57.

important the police are allowed to get on with completing the interview

:18:58.:19:01.

of witnesses and their own officers, and then that there is considered

:19:02.:19:06.

view taken about what changes might need to be made and then they will

:19:07.:19:11.

be implemented. Let me come onto the triggering of Article 50 that begins

:19:12.:19:16.

our negotiations to exit the European Union. It will happen on

:19:17.:19:21.

Wednesday. John Claude Juncker told Germany's most popular newspaper

:19:22.:19:25.

that he wants to make an example of the UK to make everyone realise it's

:19:26.:19:30.

not worth leaving the EU. What do you make of that? I think all sorts

:19:31.:19:37.

of things are said in advance of negotiations beginning. Clearly the

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commission will want to ensure the EU 27 holds together. As the Prime

:19:43.:19:47.

Minister has said, that is a British national interest as well. She has

:19:48.:19:53.

been very clear... What do you make of President Juncker's remark? It

:19:54.:19:57.

doesn't surprise me ahead of negotiations but I think if rational

:19:58.:20:05.

mutual interest is to the fore that it's perfectly possible for an

:20:06.:20:09.

agreement to be negotiated between the UK and our 27 friends and allies

:20:10.:20:15.

that addresses all of the issues from trade to security, police

:20:16.:20:18.

cooperation, foreign policy co-operation, works for all

:20:19.:20:24.

countries. The EU wants to agree a substantial divorce bill before it

:20:25.:20:28.

will even discuss any future UK EU relations, what do you make of that?

:20:29.:20:35.

Article 50 says the terms of exit need to be negotiated in the context

:20:36.:20:40.

of the kind of future relationship that's going to exist between the

:20:41.:20:44.

departing country and the remaining member states. It seems it is simply

:20:45.:20:49.

not possible to separate those two. Clearly there will need to be a

:20:50.:20:54.

discussion about joint assets and join liabilities but I think if we

:20:55.:20:57.

all keep to the fore the fact we will continue to be neighbours, we

:20:58.:21:02.

will continue to be essential allies and trading partners, then it is

:21:03.:21:04.

possible to come to a deal that works for all size. The

:21:05.:21:21.

question is do you agree the divorce bill first and then look at the

:21:22.:21:24.

subsequent relations we will have or do you do them both in parallel?

:21:25.:21:26.

Article 50 itself says they have to run together. Do you think they have

:21:27.:21:32.

to be done together or sequentially? I think it is impossible to separate

:21:33.:21:37.

the two but we will get into negotiations very soon and then once

:21:38.:21:41.

David Davis is sitting down with Michel Barnier and others and the

:21:42.:21:47.

national governments become involved too, then I hope we can make steady

:21:48.:21:52.

progress. An early deal about each other's citizens would be a good

:21:53.:21:56.

piece of low hanging fruit. Is the Government willing to pay a

:21:57.:22:04.

substantial divorce bill? The Prime Minister has said we don't rule out

:22:05.:22:09.

some kind of continuing payments, for example there may be EU

:22:10.:22:14.

programmes in the future in which we want to continue to participate. 50

:22:15.:22:20.

billion? We don't envisage long-term payments of vast sums of money. So

:22:21.:22:26.

50 billion isn't even the Government ballpark? You are tempting me to get

:22:27.:22:32.

into the detail of negotiation, that is something that will be starting

:22:33.:22:37.

very soon and let's leave it to the negotiations. During the referendum

:22:38.:22:44.

there was no talk from the Leave side about any question of

:22:45.:22:49.

separation bill, now the talk is of 50 billion and I'm trying to find

:22:50.:22:52.

out if the British government thinks that of amount is on your radar. The

:22:53.:23:03.

Government is addressing the situation in which we now are, which

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is that we have a democratic obligation to implement the decision

:23:10.:23:13.

of the people in the referendum last year, and that we need to do that in

:23:14.:23:17.

a way that maximises the opportunity, the future prosperity

:23:18.:23:22.

and security of everybody in the UK. Let me try one more thing on the

:23:23.:23:26.

Great Repeal Bill, the white Paper will be published I think on

:23:27.:23:31.

Thursday, is that right? We haven't announced an exact date but you will

:23:32.:23:36.

see the white Paper very soon. Let's say it is Thursday, it will enshrine

:23:37.:23:41.

thousands of EU laws into UK law, it will use what's called Henry VIII

:23:42.:23:46.

powers, who of course was a dictator. Is this an attempt to

:23:47.:23:52.

avoid proper Parliamentary scrutiny? No, we are repealing the Communities

:23:53.:23:59.

Act 1972, then put existing EU legal obligations on the UK statutory

:24:00.:24:04.

footing, so business know where they stand. Then, because a lot of those

:24:05.:24:10.

EU regulations will for example refer to the commission or another

:24:11.:24:17.

regulator, you need to substitute a UK authority in place so we need to

:24:18.:24:22.

have a power under secondary legislation to tweak the European

:24:23.:24:33.

regulators so it is coherent. This is weather Henry VIII powers come

:24:34.:24:39.

in. It is secondary legislation and the scope, the definition of those

:24:40.:24:43.

powers and when they can be used in what circumstances is something the

:24:44.:24:46.

parliament will have to approve in voting through the bill itself. And

:24:47.:24:52.

if it is as innocuous as you say, will you accept the proposal of the

:24:53.:24:57.

Lords for an enhanced scrutiny process on the secondary

:24:58.:25:01.

legislation? Neither the relevant committee of the House of Lords, the

:25:02.:25:05.

constitution committee, nor anyone else has seen the text of the bill

:25:06.:25:11.

and I think when it comes out, I hope that those members of the House

:25:12.:25:14.

of Lords will find that reassuring, but as I say the definition of those

:25:15.:25:20.

powers are something the parliament itself will take the final decision.

:25:21.:25:26.

David Lidington, thank you for being with us.

:25:27.:25:27.

So, Ukip has lost its only MP - Douglas Carswell.

:25:28.:25:30.

He defected to Ukip from the Conservative Party

:25:31.:25:32.

almost three years ago, but yesterday announced

:25:33.:25:33.

that he was quitting to sit as an independent.

:25:34.:25:35.

His surprise defection came in August 2014 saying,

:25:36.:25:37.

"Only Ukip can shake up that cosy little clique called Westminster".

:25:38.:25:40.

But his bromance with Nigel Farage turned sour when Mr Carswell

:25:41.:25:44.

criticised the so-called "shock and awful" strategy as

:25:45.:25:46.

Then, during the EU referendum campaign last year, Nigel Farage

:25:47.:25:51.

was part of the unofficial Leave.EU campaign, whereas Douglas Carswell

:25:52.:25:54.

opted to support the official Vote Leave campaign.

:25:55.:26:00.

Just last month, former Ukip leader Nigel Farage

:26:01.:26:02.

accused Douglas Carswell of thwarting his chances

:26:03.:26:04.

of being awarded a knighthood, writing that,

:26:05.:26:06.

Announcing his resignation on his website yesterday,

:26:07.:26:14.

Mr Carswell said, "I desperately wanted us to leave the EU.

:26:15.:26:16.

Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have

:26:17.:26:19.

decided that I will be leaving Ukip."

:26:20.:26:22.

When Mr Carswell left the Conservative Party in 2014

:26:23.:26:24.

he resigned as an MP, triggering a by-election.

:26:25.:26:27.

"I must seek permission from my boss," he said referring

:26:28.:26:30.

This time, though, Mr Carswell has said there will be no by-election.

:26:31.:26:39.

We're joined now from Salford by Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall.

:26:40.:26:45.

Welcome back to the programme. Are you happy to see the back of your

:26:46.:26:55.

only MP? Well, do you know, I'm always sad when people leave Ukip at

:26:56.:27:00.

a grass roots level or Parliamentary level, but I'm sad but I'm not

:27:01.:27:06.

surprised by this. There has been adrift by Douglas and Ukip over the

:27:07.:27:10.

past couple of years, his relationship with Nigel Farage

:27:11.:27:14.

certainly hasn't helped, and it is a hangover from the former regime

:27:15.:27:18.

which I inherited. I try to bring the party together, I thought I had

:27:19.:27:22.

done that for a few months but it seems now as if I was only papering

:27:23.:27:26.

over the cracks. Douglas has gone and I think we will move on and be a

:27:27.:27:33.

more unified party as a result. Did Douglas Carswell jump because he

:27:34.:27:36.

expected to be pushed out your national executive committee

:27:37.:27:40.

tomorrow? He came before the National executive committee to

:27:41.:27:43.

answer questions regarding issues that have come to the fore over the

:27:44.:27:47.

last couple of months. There was the knighthood issue, the issue

:27:48.:27:54.

surrounding the Thanet election and his comments in a book which came

:27:55.:27:59.

out regarding Brexit. So was he under suspicion? He was coming to

:28:00.:28:03.

answer these questions and they would have been difficult. So he did

:28:04.:28:11.

jump in your view? No, I'm not saying he would have been pushed out

:28:12.:28:15.

of the party but he would have faced difficult questions. What is clear

:28:16.:28:23.

is that a fissure had developed and I'm not surprised by him leaving the

:28:24.:28:28.

party. You have also lost Diane James, Stephen Wolf, Arron Banks,

:28:29.:28:33.

you failed to win the Stoke by election, Mr Carswell is now a

:28:34.:28:38.

pundit on US television, Ukip now stands for the UK irrelevance party,

:28:39.:28:46.

doesn't it? Paul's hard us yesterday on 12%, membership continues to

:28:47.:29:02.

rise. -- the polls had us on 12%. 4 million people voted for Ukip. Over

:29:03.:29:06.

the summer exciting things will be happening in the party, we will

:29:07.:29:09.

rewrite the constitution, restructure the party, it will have

:29:10.:29:13.

a new feel to it and we will be launching pretty much the post

:29:14.:29:19.

Brexit Ukip. Arron Banks, who used to pay quite a lot of your bills, he

:29:20.:29:23.

said the current leadership, that would be you, couldn't knock the

:29:24.:29:27.

skin off a rice pudding, another way of saying you are relevant, isn't

:29:28.:29:33.

it? I don't think that's fair. I've only been in the job since November

:29:34.:29:39.

the 28th, we have taken steps to restructure the party already, the

:29:40.:29:42.

party is on a sound financial footing, we won't have a problem

:29:43.:29:46.

money wise going forward. It is a party which can really unified, look

:29:47.:29:52.

forward to the post Brexit Iraq, tomorrow we are launching our Brexit

:29:53.:29:56.

test for the Prime Minister. If it wasn't for Ukip there wouldn't have

:29:57.:30:03.

been a referendum and we wouldn't have Brexit. Every time you say you

:30:04.:30:06.

will unified, someone else leaves. Is Arron Banks still a member? No,

:30:07.:30:13.

not at this moment in time. He has been a generous donor in the past,

:30:14.:30:17.

he's done a great job of ensuring we get Brexit and I'm thankful for that

:30:18.:30:22.

but he isn't a member. He has just submitted an invoice of ?2000 for

:30:23.:30:26.

the use of call centres, will you pay that? No. That should be

:30:27.:30:36.

interesting to watch. In the aftermath of the Westminster

:30:37.:30:41.

attack, Nigel Farage told Fox News that it vindicates Donald Trump's

:30:42.:30:45.

extreme vetting of migrants. Since the attacker was born in Kent, like

:30:46.:30:51.

Nigel Farage, can you explain the relevance of the remark? I

:30:52.:30:55.

personally haven't supported Donald Trump's position on this, but what I

:30:56.:30:59.

will say, this is what Nigel has said as well, we have a problem

:31:00.:31:04.

within the Muslim community, it is a small number of people who hate the

:31:05.:31:09.

way we live... Can you explain the relevance of Mr Farage's remark? Mr

:31:10.:31:12.

Farage also made the point about multiculturalism being the

:31:13.:31:29.

problem as well and he is correct on that because we cannot have separate

:31:30.:31:31.

communities living separate lives and never integrating. How would

:31:32.:31:33.

extreme vetting of migrants help you track down a man who was born in

:31:34.:31:36.

Kent? In this case it wouldn't. Maybe in other cases it would. But,

:31:37.:31:39.

as I say, I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump's position on extreme

:31:40.:31:42.

vetting, never have been, so I'm the wrong person to ask the question

:31:43.:31:46.

too, Andrew. That has probably become clear in my efforts to get

:31:47.:31:50.

you to answer it. Let me as too, should there be a by-election in

:31:51.:31:54.

Clacton now? Douglas has called by-elections in the past when he has

:31:55.:31:58.

left a political party, I know certain people in Ukip are keen to

:31:59.:32:05.

go down this line, Douglas is always keen on recall and if 20% of people

:32:06.:32:07.

in his constituency want a by-election then maybe we should

:32:08.:32:11.

have won. Ukip will be opening nominations for Clacton very soon.

:32:12.:32:17.

Hold on with us, Mr Nuttall, I have Douglas Carswell here in the studio.

:32:18.:32:24.

Why not call a by-election? I'm not switching parties. You are, you are

:32:25.:32:31.

becoming independent. There is a difference, I've not submitted

:32:32.:32:34.

myself to the whip up a new party, if I was, I would be obliged to

:32:35.:32:39.

trigger a by-election. If every time an MP in the House of Commons

:32:40.:32:43.

resigned the whip or lost the whip, far from actually strengthening the

:32:44.:32:47.

democracy against the party bosses, that would give those who ran

:32:48.:32:51.

parties and enormous power, so I'm being absolutely consistent here,

:32:52.:32:56.

I'm not joining a party. It is a change of status and Nigel Farage

:32:57.:33:00.

has just said he will write to every constituent in Clacton and he wants

:33:01.:33:08.

to try and get 20% of constituents to older by-election. We are going

:33:09.:33:13.

to testing, he says, write to every house in Clacton, find out if his

:33:14.:33:17.

constituents want a by-election, if 20% do we will find out if Mr

:33:18.:33:21.

Carswell is honourable. I'm sure they will be delighted to hear from

:33:22.:33:28.

Nigel. There have been several by-elections when Nigel has had the

:33:29.:33:30.

opportunity to contact the electorate we did -- which did not

:33:31.:33:36.

always go to plan. If you got 20%, would you? Yesterday I sent an

:33:37.:33:40.

e-mail to 20,000 constituents, I have had a lot of responses back,

:33:41.:33:45.

overwhelmingly supported. Recently you said you were 100% Ukip, now you

:33:46.:33:53.

are 0%. What happened? I saw Theresa May triggering article 50, we won,

:33:54.:33:58.

Andrew. You knew a few months ago she was going to do that. On June

:33:59.:34:02.

the 24th I had serious thought about making the move but I wanted to be

:34:03.:34:06.

absolutely certain that Article 50 would be triggered and I think it is

:34:07.:34:11.

right. This is why ultimately Ukip exists, to get us out of the

:34:12.:34:14.

European Union. We should be cheerful instead of attacking one

:34:15.:34:18.

another, this is our moment, we made it happen. Did you try to sideline

:34:19.:34:23.

the former Ukip leader during the referendum campaign? Not at all, I

:34:24.:34:28.

have been open about this, the idea I have been involved in subterfuge.

:34:29.:34:33.

You try to sideline him openly rather than by subterfuge? I made

:34:34.:34:37.

the point we needed to be open, broad and progressive to win. I made

:34:38.:34:41.

it clear in my acceptance speech in Clacton and when I said that Vote

:34:42.:34:45.

Leave should get designation that the only way Euroscepticism would

:34:46.:34:49.

win was by being more than just angry natives. What do you make of

:34:50.:34:55.

that? I am over the moon that we have achieved Brexit, unlike Douglas

:34:56.:35:03.

I rarely have that much confidence in Theresa May because history

:35:04.:35:05.

proves that she is good at talking the talk but in walking the walk

:35:06.:35:09.

often fails, and I'm disappointed because I wanted Douglas to be part

:35:10.:35:13.

of the post Brexit Ukip where we move forward with a raft of domestic

:35:14.:35:17.

policies and go on to take seat at Westminster. Do you think you try to

:35:18.:35:22.

sideline Mr Farage during the referendum campaign? Vote Leave

:35:23.:35:26.

certainly didn't want Nigel Farage front of house, we know that. They

:35:27.:35:32.

freely admit that, they admitted it on media over the past year. Nigel

:35:33.:35:38.

still was front of house because he is Nigel Farage and if it wasn't for

:35:39.:35:42.

Nigel, as I said earlier, we wouldn't have at the referendum and

:35:43.:35:45.

we wouldn't have achieved Brexit because Nigel Farage appeals, like

:35:46.:35:51.

Ukip to a certain section of the population. If our primary motive is

:35:52.:35:55.

to get us out of the European Union, why are we having this row, why

:35:56.:35:59.

can't we just celebrate what is happening on Wednesday? We can, but

:36:00.:36:03.

you are far more confident that Theresa May will deliver on this

:36:04.:36:07.

than I am. Ukip may have been a single issue pressure group ten

:36:08.:36:11.

years ago, it wasn't a single issue pressure group that you joined in

:36:12.:36:15.

2014, it wasn't a single issue pressure group that you stood for in

:36:16.:36:19.

2015 at the general election, and I'm disappointed that you have left

:36:20.:36:24.

us when we are moving onto an exciting era. What specifically

:36:25.:36:27.

gives you a lack of confidence in Mrs May's ability deliver? Her

:36:28.:36:32.

record as Home Secretary, she said she would deal with radical Islam,

:36:33.:36:37.

nothing happened, she said she would get immigration down to the tens of

:36:38.:36:41.

thousands, last year in her last year as Home Secretary as city the

:36:42.:36:44.

size of Newcastle came to this country, that is not tens of

:36:45.:36:48.

thousands. I think we need to take yes for an answer eventually. The

:36:49.:36:52.

problem with some Eurosceptics is they never accept they have won the

:36:53.:36:56.

argument. We have one, Theresa May is going to do what we have wanted

:36:57.:37:00.

her to do, let's be happy, let's celebrate that. But let's wait until

:37:01.:37:04.

she starts bartering things away, until she betrays our fishermen,

:37:05.:37:09.

just as other Conservative prime ministers have done in the past.

:37:10.:37:12.

Let's wait until we end up still paying some sort of membership fee

:37:13.:37:17.

into the European Union or a large divorce bill. That is not what

:37:18.:37:20.

people voted for on June the 23rd and if you want to align yourself

:37:21.:37:29.

with that, you are clearly not a Ukipper in my opinion. So for Ukip

:37:30.:37:33.

to have relevance, it has to go wrong? I'm confident politics will

:37:34.:37:37.

come back to our terms but -- our turf but there will be a post Brexit

:37:38.:37:42.

Ukip that will stand for veterans, book slashing the foreign aid bill

:37:43.:37:45.

and becoming the party of law and order. Finally, to you, Douglas

:37:46.:37:50.

Carswell, you say you have confidence in Mrs May to deliver in

:37:51.:37:56.

the way that Paul Nuttall doesn't. You backed her, you were

:37:57.:38:01.

Conservative, you believe that Brexit will be delivered under a

:38:02.:38:04.

Conservative Government. Why would you not bite the 2020 election as a

:38:05.:38:10.

Conservative? I feel comfortable being independent. If you join a

:38:11.:38:14.

party you have to agree to a bunch of stuff I would not want to agree

:38:15.:38:17.

with. I am comfortable being independent. So you will go into

:38:18.:38:25.

2020 as an independent? If you look at the raising of funds, what Vote

:38:26.:38:29.

Leave did as a pop-up party... We only have five seconds, will you

:38:30.:38:33.

fight as an independent in the next general election? Let's wait and

:38:34.:38:38.

see. Very well! Thank you both very much.

:38:39.:38:49.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:38:50.:38:52.

In a few minutes, what will triggering Article 50 mean

:38:53.:38:54.

for Wales, and what role will we play in Brexit?

:38:55.:39:02.

But first the Welsh Labour Party is meeting in Llandudno this weekend.

:39:03.:39:04.

In his speech, Carwyn Jones mentioned the elections,

:39:05.:39:06.

the NHS and a new idea, a fair pay commission.

:39:07.:39:09.

But when I met him I began by asking about his reaction to the attack

:39:10.:39:14.

People are inevitably on their guard. Sadly, it shows how much

:39:15.:39:32.

damage is possible to do with a car and a knife, without explosives and

:39:33.:39:39.

without firearms and it shows we always have to be on our guard. It

:39:40.:39:42.

is difficult to try and spot somebody who might be thinking of

:39:43.:39:49.

causing the mayhem that occurred, it is difficult when you do not know

:39:50.:39:52.

what they are thinking. Intelligence meet its tips you so far. Let's go

:39:53.:39:57.

through some of the main elements of the speech. You had some extra

:39:58.:40:08.

money. The very emotive subject got a very strong response in the

:40:09.:40:12.

conference hall. Some transport announcements. Tell me about this

:40:13.:40:16.

fair pay commission and what you want to achieve with it. There is

:40:17.:40:23.

not a lot of detail. What we found knocking doors during the referendum

:40:24.:40:27.

is that people weren't happy with their job security and they felt

:40:28.:40:35.

they didn't have pensions, they remember their parents having more

:40:36.:40:38.

security and they say someone is to blame for this. If you look at

:40:39.:40:41.

unemployment figures in Wales, we do not have a problem but that is not

:40:42.:40:47.

something that we can just ignore. What we do have an issue with his

:40:48.:40:52.

people's job security, low wages and we have to start dealing with that.

:40:53.:40:58.

The next stage, setting up the commission, the unions and the

:40:59.:41:01.

employers working together to him -- identify how we can put more money

:41:02.:41:05.

into people's pockets and deliver more secure jobs closer to home. You

:41:06.:41:11.

can't possibly... No one can possibly disagree with any of this

:41:12.:41:18.

but the possibility the macro problem is the pay levels are in the

:41:19.:41:25.

gift of the private sector. True, but we have major infrastructure

:41:26.:41:30.

projects in Wales at the moment. They are important levers in

:41:31.:41:35.

delivering skills, training, higher wages. It is not simply what you do

:41:36.:41:41.

with the tax system. In the 1990s, a lot of well-paid jobs in Wales were

:41:42.:41:45.

replaced by unskilled low paid jobs and even though unemployment figures

:41:46.:41:48.

went down, incomes went down as well. We are still dealing with that

:41:49.:41:52.

legacy. It is not good enough to say that is what happened then, we want

:41:53.:41:56.

to make sure that having brought unemployment down, we now look at

:41:57.:41:59.

improving people's wages, that is next. Claiming credit for saving the

:42:00.:42:06.

Welsh steel industry, that is a heck of a claim, isn't it? We worked with

:42:07.:42:13.

the unions, seminars, MPs, local councils, and we worked with Tata

:42:14.:42:19.

Steel. The organisation missing from the jigsaw was the UK Government.

:42:20.:42:27.

What would macro when David Cameron was... All the work that was done,

:42:28.:42:34.

working with Tata Steel, though in fairness were a responsive company,

:42:35.:42:37.

all the work that was done with the unions and the community, that was

:42:38.:42:41.

done bias. With all due respect, there are huge global issues at

:42:42.:42:49.

stake. To take sole response ready for saving the Welsh steel industry,

:42:50.:42:56.

come on. We put money on the table. We worked with Tata Steel week in

:42:57.:42:59.

week out. I met them all over the world just to show how important we

:43:00.:43:04.

saw the Welsh steel industry as being. One thing we asked the UK

:43:05.:43:08.

Government was to do was to reduce UK energy prices. They are the

:43:09.:43:15.

amongst the highest in Europe. Higher than Germany or Spain. They

:43:16.:43:21.

could not deliver that. Waiting times are going down, you said.

:43:22.:43:29.

Where are they going down? A, for example. Response rates, going down.

:43:30.:43:37.

It was said the Welsh NHS was worse and all of a sudden... If we look at

:43:38.:43:47.

what is happening in England, the situation is worse in England.

:43:48.:43:54.

Social care, we spend 6% more on social care per head than England

:43:55.:44:02.

do. Here we are. We find now we are making sure with the announcements

:44:03.:44:05.

we have made today, more money goes into social caring Wales. There has

:44:06.:44:10.

not been a substantial reduction across the board in waiting times.

:44:11.:44:15.

We have seen a substantial difference, there is no question

:44:16.:44:18.

about that. Independent studies have taken place. Two years ago, an

:44:19.:44:26.

attempt was made by the then UK Government to suggest the Welsh NHS

:44:27.:44:29.

was useless. It was not the case at all. Waiting times are still

:44:30.:44:34.

substantially longer in Wales than in England. In some areas, yes.

:44:35.:44:45.

Cancer performances better. And we have done that even as the money

:44:46.:44:48.

coming into Wales and the UK Government has been hammered. Big

:44:49.:44:53.

focus, council elections. You are in control in 12 out of 22. Someone

:44:54.:44:58.

told me if you retain control in eight or nine, that would be a good

:44:59.:45:01.

night for you. Would you be happy with that? I remember this debate

:45:02.:45:05.

last year with the assembly elections. We did a lot better. How

:45:06.:45:12.

do we do that? Clear message, stand on your record, listen, work hard.

:45:13.:45:17.

That is exactly what we have been doing in these council elections. We

:45:18.:45:21.

want to do as well as we can and that means holding what we have at

:45:22.:45:24.

the very least and saying to people, look what Labour councils have

:45:25.:45:29.

delivered across Wales. Look at the economic growth, the houses being

:45:30.:45:32.

built. I am more than happy to stand on that record. How concerned are

:45:33.:45:37.

you about the divisions within the party at Westminster level? They do

:45:38.:45:44.

not help. No one can argue it is helpful. In Wales, we do not have

:45:45.:45:52.

that but we can have a debate within the party, that is part of a natural

:45:53.:45:55.

democratic process but clearly, where you have quite severe

:45:56.:46:01.

arguments between people in Westminster, that is not going to

:46:02.:46:04.

help the party. That is why we need to see a sense of unity there that

:46:05.:46:10.

we see in Wales. I always ask you this question, you have just turned

:46:11.:46:14.

50, you have set yourself you have been in reflective mood. How long

:46:15.:46:21.

are you going to go on for? People try and read what I have said and

:46:22.:46:25.

read something into it. I have just turned 50. I am much younger than

:46:26.:46:29.

Theresa May and David Cameron. There is a lot of work to do. Particularly

:46:30.:46:35.

with Brexit. I am still as enthusiastic as I ever was. I have

:46:36.:46:39.

given no thought as to when I will stand down. There has been a sense

:46:40.:46:44.

that you will stand down once you have done ten years. In other words,

:46:45.:46:49.

you will not fight another assembly election campaign. I have only just

:46:50.:46:56.

come through the loss. I am focused on delivering the best deal for

:46:57.:46:58.

Wales with Brexit. That will be hugely important. The last thing

:46:59.:47:03.

that should happen is they should be a sudden change of government in

:47:04.:47:07.

Wales. People who have been there for a while and to have seen what

:47:08.:47:12.

has happened in the past, we can get to a point where we have a sensible

:47:13.:47:18.

Brexit. First Minister, thank you very much.

:47:19.:47:21.

You heard Carwyn Jones there talking about Brexit.

:47:22.:47:23.

This week the UK will let Brussels know, officially,

:47:24.:47:25.

But what will triggering Article 50 mean for Wales and what kind

:47:26.:47:31.

Bethan Lewis now on that all important letter.

:47:32.:47:40.

This week, it is all about the letter. The letter that will arrive

:47:41.:47:47.

on the desk of the European Council president in Brussels. The letter

:47:48.:47:52.

that triggers Article 50 and begins the formal process of Wales and the

:47:53.:47:57.

UK leaving the European Union. Everyone knows it has been coming.

:47:58.:48:01.

Theresa May said months ago that she would send the Article 50 letter to

:48:02.:48:06.

the European Council president by the end of March and that is when

:48:07.:48:09.

the clock starts ticking, with two years to work out exactly how this

:48:10.:48:13.

most complicated of divorces will happen. A Spitfire greets you when

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you arrive at this company near Bridgend. It employs around 150

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people making ground support equipment for dozens of airlines and

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governments across the world. Working with Nato and the United

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Nations. Some of these stairs are going to Japan. And some of them are

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going to Luton airport. Owner Duncan Barber was a guest at a roundtable

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discussion with the Prime Minister when she visited South Wales on

:48:50.:48:53.

Monday. He voted to remain in the European Union last June but now he

:48:54.:48:58.

is optimistic about Brexit. It was a shock. And I think afterwards, there

:48:59.:49:08.

was a lot of uncertainty. But since then, I think as the government has

:49:09.:49:13.

got its act together, the government has surprised the nation, there is a

:49:14.:49:20.

growing confidence. I am positive. Very positive. But we have got to

:49:21.:49:24.

get Lee and we have got to deliver and we have got to deliver

:49:25.:49:28.

competitively and as always for the United Kingdom, to the highest

:49:29.:49:32.

quality. For farmers, the talks ahead will be crucial. This farmer

:49:33.:49:42.

's main business is goats milk. Gary wanted to stay in the European

:49:43.:49:47.

Union, though many farmers did not. I think there has been a lot of

:49:48.:49:51.

misinformation. And it is quite hard to see the wood for the trees

:49:52.:49:55.

really. We have not seen what is going to be the state of play for

:49:56.:50:00.

agriculture, so it is a bit of a time of uncertainty. Welsh farming

:50:01.:50:05.

is heavily dependent on funding from the European Union and on exporting

:50:06.:50:10.

to its markets. Over 90% of Welsh meat is exported to the European

:50:11.:50:14.

Union and an assembly committee report says there are grave risk for

:50:15.:50:19.

Welsh agriculture if the UK fails to agree a trade deal with the European

:50:20.:50:23.

Union. The cherries a Brexit enthusiast but has concerns about

:50:24.:50:27.

what is ahead. What we as a committee want to ensure is access

:50:28.:50:31.

to the single market because in the agricultural sector, which is

:50:32.:50:37.

important for Wales, tariffs would be very high. 40 or 60% for some

:50:38.:50:42.

products. Avoiding those will be very important for the future of

:50:43.:50:46.

agriculture in Wales. In Abergavenny town centre, people have had nine

:50:47.:50:51.

months to get used to the idea of leaving the European Union, with

:50:52.:50:53.

only days until the practicalities get started. In last June 's

:50:54.:51:00.

referendum, the vote in Monmouthshire was closer than in any

:51:01.:51:04.

other part of Wales. It was virtually 50-50, with a small

:51:05.:51:08.

majority for remain. But with the process of surely about to start,

:51:09.:51:12.

how do people here feel about it now? We have got to get on with it.

:51:13.:51:18.

At the end of the day, I to remain. But they are going, so we are going.

:51:19.:51:24.

I voted out but I wish we hadn't. I am worried. We won't have as many

:51:25.:51:31.

nurses, and things like this. It is all going wrong. Back in the

:51:32.:51:36.

factory, Duncan Barbour feels there are opportunities ahead now the

:51:37.:51:41.

direction of travel has been set. Now the hard work begins and when it

:51:42.:51:46.

drops, the contents of the letter will begin the process assists --

:51:47.:51:51.

offsetting Wales' economic future for decades to come.

:51:52.:51:53.

Joining me now to talk about what this all means for Wales

:51:54.:51:56.

are the leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood and the Welsh

:51:57.:51:58.

Conservative leader, Andrew RT Davies.

:51:59.:52:02.

Let me start with you, Leanne Wood. The phoney war is over and we are

:52:03.:52:08.

about to start this process. You fought a good fight to try and stop

:52:09.:52:12.

is getting to this stage. Does Plaid Cymru need to change the tone with

:52:13.:52:16.

which it approaches this subject? Plaid Cymru is always going to

:52:17.:52:21.

advocate the Welsh National Mining test. What is in the best interest

:52:22.:52:24.

of Wales is what we will champion at all times. Up until now and beyond

:52:25.:52:31.

now even, we still have no idea what is really going to be in this

:52:32.:52:34.

Article 50 letter. The key thing for Wales is that we stop any kind of

:52:35.:52:42.

extreme Tory Brexit, a hard Brexit that will pull us out of the single

:52:43.:52:46.

market. We have said very clearly that it is in Wales' best interests

:52:47.:52:52.

to retain our single market membership. Good to are exported

:52:53.:53:00.

into the European Union, 67% of everything we export from Wales goal

:53:01.:53:04.

to the European Union and it is 90% if you look at agricultural

:53:05.:53:08.

products. The membership of that market is very important. I see the

:53:09.:53:14.

list and we have had it for months. But the process is now starting. The

:53:15.:53:18.

danger is you could appear irrelevant because the reality will

:53:19.:53:22.

be happening now over the next 18 months. To what extent do you change

:53:23.:53:27.

things? But we still don't know what will happen. And it is a two-way

:53:28.:53:32.

process. Whatever the Prime Minister decides to take into those

:53:33.:53:35.

negotiations, she has to be prepared to compromise because that is the

:53:36.:53:39.

nature of negotiations and there is another side. There are 27 states

:53:40.:53:44.

that will have a position as well. Whatever is in the letter, we have

:53:45.:53:49.

to expect movement on that overtime. To what extent will you change your

:53:50.:53:55.

tone as well? What has been branded the sunny uplands metric post

:53:56.:54:01.

Brexit. If we get a bad deal, will you call it a bad deal or will you

:54:02.:54:06.

be so desperate to justify the league position, you will take

:54:07.:54:12.

whatever we get? Not at all. It is about the national interest. I would

:54:13.:54:15.

suggest the national interest of Wales was set on June the 23rd when

:54:16.:54:19.

the majority of Welsh people voted for us to renegotiate our

:54:20.:54:22.

relationship with Europe and come out of Europe. That is the national

:54:23.:54:27.

interest of Wales. On Wednesday, Article 50 is going to be evoked and

:54:28.:54:30.

the negotiations start and it is correct to point out that it is a

:54:31.:54:34.

two-way negotiation. Everything has been focused on what the

:54:35.:54:36.

Conservative government in Westminster along with the devolved

:54:37.:54:40.

administrations... Theresa May has been in Wales five times since she

:54:41.:54:44.

has been Prime Minister. There is extensive dialogue set out but we

:54:45.:54:48.

also need to know what the European Union wants and there is no

:54:49.:54:51.

coherence with the outside of the argument. A bad deal, walk away from

:54:52.:54:57.

it? I don't think we will get a bad deal? There is a great opportunity

:54:58.:55:00.

to engage economic tea, socially and culturally with Europe. This is

:55:01.:55:05.

about as taking the decisions in this country and bringing

:55:06.:55:09.

sovereignty back to this country so those decisions are taken by the

:55:10.:55:12.

politicians elected in the United Kingdom. I have seen very little

:55:13.:55:17.

evidence of the Prime Minister really listening to the needs of

:55:18.:55:20.

Wales. We have not had any sense when she has turned up... She is

:55:21.:55:26.

delivering what people want, which is to leave the European Union. But

:55:27.:55:30.

we are talking about how we leave the European now. We accept the

:55:31.:55:34.

result and the result is accepted by everybody. The question is how we

:55:35.:55:38.

leave and we have had very little detail from the Prime Minister or

:55:39.:55:42.

evidence that she has actually consulted and listened to the Wales

:55:43.:55:50.

position. It is about how much information we actually get. You

:55:51.:55:53.

must realise she does not want to give a running commentary but she

:55:54.:55:58.

cannot just stay silent for 18 months and expect us to accept

:55:59.:56:02.

whatever we get. She has been the Prime Minister for nine months. She

:56:03.:56:07.

has organised her government around these negotiations, so there are

:56:08.:56:10.

departments in Whitehall dedicated to the negotiations and also she has

:56:11.:56:15.

included the devolved administrations and had extensive

:56:16.:56:22.

discussions along with the Secretary of State and I fully expect Leanne

:56:23.:56:26.

Wood to take a political position that is trying to rubbish those

:56:27.:56:28.

negotiations but one simple point, the Welsh government paper talks

:56:29.:56:35.

about participation. I have tried to understand what that means. Carwyn

:56:36.:56:41.

Jones is very vague on this. Leanne Wood has talked about having full

:56:42.:56:44.

access and membership of the single market, which she said in her

:56:45.:56:51.

conference speech. Labours official position is they have a blank sheet

:56:52.:56:56.

of paper. That is their official position. But the Tories are

:56:57.:57:02.

prepared to walk away from the single market entirely and operate

:57:03.:57:05.

under World Trade Organisation rules. That would be disastrous for

:57:06.:57:09.

the farming industry and for Welsh manufacturers as well. These are the

:57:10.:57:14.

kind of guarantees that Plaid Cymru MPs had been trying to seek through

:57:15.:57:19.

the process. Guarantees about our funding, about those European Union

:57:20.:57:22.

citizens living here and we have had nothing. We have had no sense from

:57:23.:57:26.

the Prime Minister and her team that she is listening to the needs

:57:27.:57:31.

outlined in that white Paper jointly presented by the Welsh Government

:57:32.:57:34.

and Plaid Cymru. The Prime Minister in her speech in Sophia Gardens was

:57:35.:57:40.

talking specifically about workers' rights. She can talk about what she

:57:41.:57:47.

likes. You can't guarantee your own position at the moment. You are

:57:48.:57:52.

talking about... You want independence for Wales. That is

:57:53.:57:58.

hardly giving... Hardly giving clarity and offering leadership. The

:57:59.:58:01.

Prime Minister is offering leadership and she has moved her

:58:02.:58:05.

government to be on a negotiating footing for the next two years. What

:58:06.:58:13.

should the red lines be? Should the red line be the World Trade

:58:14.:58:18.

Organisation rules? Tariffs would go up significantly, potentially

:58:19.:58:20.

devastating for the farming industry. The red line is that

:58:21.:58:25.

Parliament and the assemblies of the United Kingdom have sovereignty on

:58:26.:58:28.

the issues and ultimately that is what the red line has to be because

:58:29.:58:32.

that is what we voted on. All the negotiations will revolve around

:58:33.:58:35.

that and actually having access and agreement on the single market could

:58:36.:58:40.

be relatively easy because most trade negotiations revolve around

:58:41.:58:43.

setting standards and conformity around goods. We have those

:58:44.:58:47.

standards, we have at conformity, so there is not those big debate to be

:58:48.:58:52.

had. If Europe want to engage positively, which I hope they will,

:58:53.:58:58.

5 million jobs depend with won-macro on trade with Britain, if the Irish

:58:59.:59:02.

beef market does not have access to Britain, it will collapse. So there

:59:03.:59:09.

are negotiating positions on both sides of this. And ultimately if

:59:10.:59:14.

there are sensibilities on both sides, we can get a good agreement

:59:15.:59:17.

and we can move, as you said, to those sunny uplands. Leanne Wood,

:59:18.:59:22.

the red line for the primaries there has to be ending free movement of

:59:23.:59:27.

labour as we know it. We have outlined a number of guarantees we

:59:28.:59:32.

seek. There are questions about workers' rights, environmental

:59:33.:59:33.

protections, access to the free market. No tariffs on goods coming

:59:34.:59:47.

in to the UK. We have put forward that says it would mean that Wales

:59:48.:59:51.

would operate like a Norwegian system, where free movement would

:59:52.:59:55.

still be there, particularly for students and so on but there would

:59:56.:59:59.

be an element of linking that to work, to make sure that we don't

:00:00.:00:03.

lose vital staff within our health service and manufacturing industry.

:00:04.:00:08.

There are clear guarantees that we have said Wales needs and we have

:00:09.:00:13.

had nothing in terms of feedback as to what those guarantees will be.

:00:14.:00:19.

Strippers all away. -- strip this all away. It is the key point, can

:00:20.:00:31.

she achieve it? I believe she can. Isn't that what the former Prime

:00:32.:00:35.

Minister tried to achieve in his negotiations prior to leaving? How

:00:36.:00:42.

on earth would we -- would it be sensible for the European Union to

:00:43.:00:46.

agree to those terms after the UK has voted to leave when they were

:00:47.:00:52.

not prepared to do it before. That is the key point. Why would they

:00:53.:00:56.

accept that? They cannot make it too easy. The debate and discussion has

:00:57.:01:01.

moved on from one David Cameron was going to Brussels. When you look at

:01:02.:01:05.

the referendum that is happening in Turkey and the potential influx of

:01:06.:01:09.

migrants over the summer and refugees as well, there is now a

:01:10.:01:12.

dynamic of work in Europe that actually says we cannot... If they

:01:13.:01:17.

do continue as they are, the whole edifice will implode. Ultimately,

:01:18.:01:21.

there is a critical way land a political understanding that things

:01:22.:01:24.

need to change. I do not accept that. The refugee crisis has been

:01:25.:01:29.

going on for a long time. People are dead in the Mediterranean Sea on a

:01:30.:01:33.

daily basis in large numbers. There has been little political will from

:01:34.:01:37.

anyone to do with that. I have to leave it there at that point.

:01:38.:01:40.

you both for coming in, Andrew, back to you.

:01:41.:01:55.

So yesterday the European Union celebrated its 60th birthday

:01:56.:02:12.

at a party in Rome, the city where the founding document

:02:13.:02:15.

Leaders of 27 EU countries were there to mark the occasion -

:02:16.:02:19.

overshadowing it, though, the continued terrorist threat,

:02:20.:02:21.

And on Wednesday Theresa May, who wasn't in Rome yesterday,

:02:22.:02:24.

will trigger Article 50, formally starting

:02:25.:02:26.

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk,

:02:27.:02:29.

made an appeal for unity at the gathering.

:02:30.:02:35.

Today in Rome, we are renewing the unique alliance of free nations

:02:36.:02:40.

that was initiated 60 years ago by our great predecessors.

:02:41.:02:48.

At that time, they did not discuss multiple speeds,

:02:49.:02:51.

they did not devise exits, but despite all the tragic

:02:52.:02:55.

circumstances of the recent history they placed all their faith

:02:56.:02:58.

Mr Tusk, he is Polish, the man that has the Council of ministers, and on

:02:59.:03:17.

that council where every member of the EU sits he is an important

:03:18.:03:21.

figure in what is now about to happen. We have got to negotiate our

:03:22.:03:25.

divorce terms, we've got to agree a new free trade deal, new

:03:26.:03:32.

crime-fighting arrangements, we've got to repatriate 50 international

:03:33.:03:35.

trade agreements, and all of that has to be ratified within two years,

:03:36.:03:41.

by 27 other countries. Can that really happen?! I don't think it is

:03:42.:03:47.

inconceivable because it is in the interests of those 27 EU member

:03:48.:03:51.

states to try and negotiate a deal that we can all live with, because

:03:52.:03:54.

that would be preferable to Britain crashing out within two years. But I

:03:55.:04:00.

think this is why Labour's position is becoming increasingly incoherent.

:04:01.:04:03.

Keir Starmer has briefed today that he will be making a speech tomorrow

:04:04.:04:08.

setting out six conditions which he wants the deal to meet, otherwise

:04:09.:04:11.

Labour won't vote for it, but if Labour doesn't vote for it that

:04:12.:04:29.

doesn't mean we will be able to negotiate an extension, that would

:04:30.:04:33.

be incredibly difficult and require the consent of each of the 27 member

:04:34.:04:36.

states, so if Labour votes against it we will just crash out, it is

:04:37.:04:38.

effectively Labour saying no deal is better than a poor deal, which is

:04:39.:04:41.

not supposed to be their position. Labour's position may be incoherent

:04:42.:04:43.

but I was not asking about their position, I was asking about the

:04:44.:04:45.

Government's position. The man heading the Badila said he wants it

:04:46.:04:48.

ready by October next year so that it can go through the ratification

:04:49.:04:50.

process, people looking at this would think it is Mission:

:04:51.:04:54.

Impossible. It seems impossible to me to be done in that time. The fact

:04:55.:05:00.

that it is 27 countries, the whole of the European Parliament as well,

:05:01.:05:04.

there will be too many people throbbing spanners in the works and

:05:05.:05:09.

quite rightly. We have embarked on something that is truly terrible and

:05:10.:05:14.

disastrous, and the imagery we can have of those 27 countries

:05:15.:05:20.

celebrating together 60 years of the most extraordinary successful

:05:21.:05:23.

movement for peace, for shared European values, and others not

:05:24.:05:29.

there... We were not there at the start either, and we are not there

:05:30.:05:33.

now! And we have been bad partners while we were inside, but now that

:05:34.:05:40.

we are leaving... They did not look like it was a birthday party to me!

:05:41.:05:45.

I think it was, there was a sense of renewal, Europe exists as a place

:05:46.:05:51.

envied in the world for its values, for its peacefulness, that is why

:05:52.:05:54.

people flocked to its borders, that is why they come here. Can you look

:05:55.:06:00.

at the agenda that faces the UK Government and EU 27, is it not

:06:01.:06:05.

possible, in fact even likely, that as the process comes to an end they

:06:06.:06:12.

will have to agree on a number of areas of transitional arrangements?

:06:13.:06:16.

I think they will and they will have to agree that soon, I would not be

:06:17.:06:20.

surprised if sometime soon there is an understanding is not a formal

:06:21.:06:23.

decision that this is a process that will extend over something closer to

:06:24.:06:28.

buy or seven than two years. On Wednesday article 50 will be filed

:06:29.:06:32.

and there will be lots of excitement and hubbub but nothing concrete can

:06:33.:06:35.

happen for a while. Elections in France in May, elections in Germany

:06:36.:06:39.

which could really result in a change of Government... That is the

:06:40.:06:52.

big change, Mrs Merkel might not be there by October. And who foresaw

:06:53.:06:55.

that a few months ago? So you might be into 28 Dean before you are into

:06:56.:06:58.

the substantive discussions about how much market access or regulatory

:06:59.:07:00.

observance. I cannot see it being completed in two years. I could see,

:07:01.:07:03.

if negotiations are not too acrimonious, that transitional

:07:04.:07:07.

agreement taking place. Let's look at the timetable again. The council

:07:08.:07:11.

doesn't meet until the end of April, it meets in the middle of the French

:07:12.:07:14.

elections, the first round will have taken place, they will need a second

:07:15.:07:18.

round so not much can happen. President Hollande will be

:07:19.:07:25.

representing France, then the new French government, if it is Marine

:07:26.:07:29.

le Pen all bets are off, but even if it is Mr Mac run, he does not have a

:07:30.:07:33.

party, he will not have a majority, the French will take a long while to

:07:34.:07:37.

sort out themselves. Then it is summer, we are off to the Cote

:07:38.:07:42.

d'Azur, particularly the Bolivian elite, then we come back from that

:07:43.:07:45.

and the Germans are in an election, it may be very messy, Mrs Merkel no

:07:46.:07:51.

longer a shoo-in, it could be Mr Schultz, he may have to try to form

:07:52.:08:04.

a difficult green red coalition, that would take a while. Before you

:08:05.:08:07.

know it, it is Guy Fawkes' Day and no substance has taken place, yet we

:08:08.:08:10.

are then less than a year before this has to be decided. It is a big

:08:11.:08:13.

task and I'm sure Jana is right that there will be transitional

:08:14.:08:15.

arrangements and not everything will be concluded in that two year

:08:16.:08:19.

timetable, but in some respects what you have described helps those of us

:08:20.:08:23.

on the Eurosceptic site because it means they cannot really be a

:08:24.:08:27.

meaningful parliamentary vote on the terms of the deal because nothing is

:08:28.:08:30.

going to be agreed quickly enough for them to be able to go back and

:08:31.:08:35.

agree something else if Parliament rejects it, so when the Government

:08:36.:08:38.

eventually have something ready to bring before Parliament it will be a

:08:39.:08:42.

take it or leave it boat. How extraordinary that people who have

:08:43.:08:47.

campaigned. Indeed give us our country back and say, isn't it

:08:48.:08:51.

wonderful, we won't have a meaningful boat for our

:08:52.:08:54.

parliamentarians of the most important... We don't know what the

:08:55.:08:59.

negotiation, the package is, day by day we see more and more complicated

:09:00.:09:03.

areas nobody ever thought about, nobody mentioned during the

:09:04.:09:06.

campaign, all of which has to be resolved and the European Council

:09:07.:09:12.

and the negotiators say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

:09:13.:09:18.

You lead us into a catastrophe. There will be plenty of opportunity

:09:19.:09:23.

for Parliament to have its say following the introduction of the

:09:24.:09:26.

Great Repeal Bill, it is not as if there will be no Parliamentary time

:09:27.:09:29.

devoted. The final package is what counts. We have two years to blog

:09:30.:09:33.

about this! There was a big Proview -- pro-EU

:09:34.:09:45.

march yesterday... I was there! Polly Toynbee was there, down to

:09:46.:09:50.

Parliament Square, lots of people there marching in favour of the

:09:51.:09:54.

European Union. We can see the EU flags there on flags, lots of

:09:55.:09:59.

national flags as well, the British one. Polly, is it the aim of people

:10:00.:10:08.

like you still to stop Brexit, or to soften Brexit? I think the aim is

:10:09.:10:13.

for the best you can possibly do to limit the damage. Of course, if it

:10:14.:10:18.

happens that once people have had a chance to see how much they were

:10:19.:10:22.

lied to during the campaign and how dreadful the deal is likely to be,

:10:23.:10:26.

if it happens that enough people in the population have changed their

:10:27.:10:30.

minds, then maybe... There is no sign up yet. But we have not even

:10:31.:10:35.

begun, people have not begun to confront what it is going to mean.

:10:36.:10:39.

Wait and see. I think it is just being as close as we can. Is that

:10:40.:10:44.

credible, do you think, to stop it or to ameliorate it in terms of the

:10:45.:10:49.

Remainers? I think it is far more credible to try and stop it but even

:10:50.:10:54.

then the scope is limited. It is fairly apparent Theresa May's

:10:55.:10:57.

interpretation of the referendum is the country wants an end to free

:10:58.:11:16.

movement, there is probably no way of doing that inside the single

:11:17.:11:20.

market. She also wants external trade deals, no way of doing that

:11:21.:11:22.

outside the customs unit, said the only night you can depend if you are

:11:23.:11:25.

pro-European is, let's not leave without any trade pact, at least

:11:26.:11:27.

let's meet Canada and have a formalised trade agreement. The idea

:11:28.:11:30.

of ace -- of a very soft exit is gone now because the public really

:11:31.:11:33.

did want an end to free movement and the Government really does want

:11:34.:11:35.

external trade deals. It depends what changes in Europe. I think the

:11:36.:11:42.

momentum behind the Remoaning movement will move away. One of the

:11:43.:11:46.

banners I saw being held up yesterday by a young boy on the news

:11:47.:11:50.

was, don't put my daddy on a boat. It gets a lot of its moral force

:11:51.:11:55.

from the uncertainty surrounding the fate of EU nationals here and our

:11:56.:12:00.

resident in the remainder of the EU and I think David Lidington is right

:12:01.:12:04.

that it will be concluded quite quickly once negotiations start and

:12:05.:12:08.

that will take a lot of the heat and momentum out of the remaining

:12:09.:12:11.

movement. Why didn't Theresa May allow that amendment that said, we

:12:12.:12:18.

will do that, as an act of generosity, we will say, of course

:12:19.:12:20.

those European citizens here are welcome to stay? It would have been

:12:21.:12:25.

such a good opening move in the negotiations, instead of which she

:12:26.:12:29.

blocked it. It does not augur well. I have interviewed many Tories about

:12:30.:12:35.

this and put that point to them but they often say the Prime minister's

:12:36.:12:42.

job is to look after UK citizen in the EU... Bargaining chips, I think

:12:43.:12:46.

you have to be generous and you have to wish you people in Spain and

:12:47.:12:50.

everywhere else where there are British citizens would have

:12:51.:12:53.

responded. The British Government did try and raise that with their EU

:12:54.:12:56.

counterparts and were told, we cannot begin to talk about that

:12:57.:13:00.

until article 50 has been triggered. Next week we will be able to talk

:13:01.:13:04.

about it. How generous it would have been, we would have started on a

:13:05.:13:08.

better note. Didn't happen, we will see what happens next with EU

:13:09.:13:13.

citizens. That is it for today, the Daily Politics will be back tomorrow

:13:14.:13:17.

at midday and every day next week on BBC Two as always.

:13:18.:13:20.

And there's also a Question Time special live tomorrow

:13:21.:13:22.

night from Birmingham - with guests including

:13:23.:13:23.

the Brexit Secretary David Davis, Labour's Keir Starmer,

:13:24.:13:26.

former Ukip leader Nigel Farage and the SNP's Alex Salmond -

:13:27.:13:28.

I'll be back next week at 11am here on BBC One.

:13:29.:13:34.

Until then, remember - if it's Sunday, it's

:13:35.:13:38.

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