02/04/2017 Sunday Politics Wales

It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?

Why the Education Secretary says universities should lead the way

And Alun Cairns on extra powers for Wales after Brexit.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

of a shock. The guidelines propose

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

and again is that at different points individual countries can

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

at the same time. It also mentioned the word

"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

information in the same way as we would as a member,

so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

in the way that we have. That night, the

Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

law to change later, It is not without its critics

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

we are doing so from a position where we have the same

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

they were not allowed Great(!)

so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

morning. Although sometimes it seems

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

up for grabs. Local elections take place

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

councils are being contested, many of them affected

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

though independent candidates currently hold

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

and by the way, that is another part of

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

concerns about the way the country is run.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.

Alun Cairns tells us what he wants from Brexit and which extra powers

But first, the Education Secretary Kirsty Williams has told this

programme she wants universities to pay the real living wage

Mrs Williams says they should do so as part of what she calls

their "civic mission", and called for "much greater

constraint" in setting the pay of their highest earners.

All vice-chancellors in Wales are paid more than ?200,000 a year.

2015 and George Osborne, the then Chancellor,

boosted the Minimum Wage and rebranded it as the National

But there is another living wage, the Living Wage

Foundation thinks people should earn at least ?8.45 an hour

The UK Government's national living wage rose to ?7.50

this month for people aged 25 and over.

Annemarie is a cleaner at Cardiff University where staff are

I had two jobs before to make ends meet.

It meant a lot of rushing around, working until three o'clock, go home

to pick my daughter up and then rush back to work,

I didn't have much time then for anything else.

I had more time at home for doing stuff with my

Cardiff University became a living wage employer in 2014,

a decision that costed ?600,000 a year.

It was our students that discovered it.

They were doing a project in the School of Social

Sciences and they came in early, students coming in early!

They talked to the cleaners and they discovered

what we were paying them through the contractors.

I felt that we had to do something about it.

Welsh Government headquarters at Cathays Park is just over

the road from Cardiff University, the only Welsh university that is

Kirsty Williams says she wants the others to do the same

and she is calling on them to make rapid progress.

I have laid down a challenge to higher education Wales.

But that has to extend beyond to just their students,

We need those universities to recognise the power

they have within our nation of Wales to do good.

Yes, to educate people, but to use their powers

and their resources, their facilities

to contribute to the nation as a whole and paying

the living wage to all staff is an important part of doing that.

Mrs Williams also called for much greater constraint in the salaries

In 2015, the vice chancellors of all

Welsh universities earned more than ?200,000.

But senior salaries were said to be broadly comparable with

One way they may be able to find some extra money

is to cut the salaries of their highest-paid staff.

Every vice chancellor in Wales, for example,

I am very pleased the Higher Education Funding

Council has recently published its first report

intosenior pay in academia so that we can have that

transparency around senior pay levels.

Having had that transparency are you comfortable with the

I'm sure that universities will want to reflect at

this time of difficult budgets of austerity

across the public services and they will want

to reflect that in any decisions they make.

This isn't about setting one set of staff against another.

Your new funding system for students is based on the

other living wage, the National Living Wage,

Isn't it a bit hypocritical for you to say, that is OK for

students but we want universities to go further.

Let's be absolutely clear what Welsh students will be

We will be the first country in Europe that

will have parity of esteem for students whether they are

studying at undergraduate level, whether they are studying part-time

or whether they are studying at a postgraduate level.

It will be the most progressive package of support

for students available, one that has been welcomed by the students

Sure, but it's not the National Living Wage, is it?

We're talking about a set of workers who are undertaking roles within the

As I said, we want Welsh institutions especially those

that are spending public money, to work towards accreditation for

The umbrella group for higher education,

Universities Wales, said many institutions already had pay rates

that matched the voluntary living wage even if they weren't accredited

Last week, threats to jobs emerged at University of Wales Trinity Saint

David and at the University of South Wales, a sign that

Kirsty Williams isn't offering more cash for the living wage

but the body that distribute funding to universities,

the Higher Education Funding Council, says it will work

with them to make the progress that she wants.

One of the few real surprises in the wake of sending the

Article 50 letter this week was Theresa May saying more

powers would be coming to Wales after Brexit.

The devil will be in the detail of course.

In a moment I'll be asking Steffan Lewis

and Professor Roger Scully for their take on this,

but when I met the Secretary of State for Wales, I asked

Alun Cairns what these powers would be.

As it stands, devolution or the Welsh Government powers,

have been established in the context of the European Union.

When those powers return to the UK we will hold them

in what we call a holding pattern on a temporary basis and then

discuss how best to secure the right outcomes for industry, and for

communities and for investment, as well as where can the Welsh

Government best play its part in order to grow that investment

For example, the European Union put rules on state aid regulations.

You can only subsidise in certain areas in

We need to come to a similar arrangement across the

whole of the UK and, of course, Welsh businesses will want to have a

say in that as well as the Welsh Government, as well as other

governments to ensure they are not at a disadvantage compared to what

What the Welsh Government will say and hse said is

when it comes to the repatriation of powers, they should not be held

in a holding pattern in Westminster, they said goes straight to Cardiff

There are certain things we have got to do and the

first is maintain the integrity of the UK market.

If those powers from Europe came back to the UK there

would be nothing stopping any one nation of the UK heavily subsidising

They would have the power of the market because

The last thing we want to see is a trade war within the UK.

Let's be honest, the UK market is the most important market

to Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.

Maintaining the integrity of that market is

Therefore, whilst we are working out how that will work,

the return of the powers from Europe back to the UK will be

held in the holding pattern while we discuss with the devolved

administrations and with business how better to use them.

Those discussions, how will that work?

What happens if you've got the four governments together, the devolved

governments, the UK Government together having discussion but

that is deadlock, that is no agreement.

Who then arbitrates, who gets to choose?

These sorts of things happened between governments

As it stands, the European Union or the European Commission are

The UK Government has always had a part

in those negotiations and we have ensured the devolved administrations

have a say in terms of the position the UK Government takes.

It isn't about having a say now, it is deciding.

You said the four governments will come together, what

I'm saying is what if there is a deadlock?

I know you are optimistic, that is good to hear, but what if

The Welsh Government, Welsh business and I want

We want to maintain the integrity of the UK market.

The last thing we want is any one government

heavily subsidising one industry to the cost of that industry

When we negotiate free-trade agreements, for example, with other

nations, then we clearly need to be able to command the authority

of the whole of the UK, or get to a position

where we can bring together all of the views of the whole of the UK

in the interest of that trade agreement that would benefit the UK.

But then you can look at international trade

and think, it's a reserved model and therefore not so problematic

but something like agriculture, fisheries, where the Welsh

governments will say, those are devolved areas,

why shouldn't they go straight to the Welsh Government?

Without a common framework, and the Welsh Government

except we need a UK framework, so we are in a good

Without that framework there would be nothing stopping one

nation of the UK heavily subsidising maybe one sector of

agriculture and then effectively destroying the market

But couldn't you argue that is devolution?

The whole point of devolution is the separate

Devolution has been established in the context of being a member

of the European Union where the European Union has

We want to get to a framework in the UK for which

all part of the UK agree and until we get to that position

we will hold it in what we call a holding pattern before

we then extend the powers of the devolved administrations

Do you envisage that certain regulations, rules that come

from Europe now will have to carry on after that two-year period?

They are very worried because safety standards are very important for

They don't think it can be done, they think it'll be expensive and

time-consuming to have new regulations specifically

Do you envisage that will continue beyond that two-year period?

The life sceinces sector, the pharmaceutical industry...

At the moment, there is a UK framework around medicines and

the pharmaceutical industry, a European framework around the

When that comes back the last thing any company involved

in the pharmaceutical industry wants

We need to get a position where we can get to a

There are concerns, if you think about Broughton, the aerospace

industry will be concerned about, not about the four

different elements within the UK, but having

a framework which can be carried into Europe.

Isn't there a concern that that is so much to do that industry

sectors like aerospace won't get the look in,

the Rolls Royce standards of regulations that they want?

Our starting point is the same as the European Union.

The last thing we want to do is to reduce our standards

that will effectively cost anyone business.

When you are talking about the relationship that

needs to be had between the UK and the devolved administrations,

how confident are you going forward it will be able to deal

We have been hearing recently from the Welsh Government

there isn't any listening going on, you hear their concerns but very

little happens from the UK Government point view.

I have sat in all of the joint ministerial committee

meetings that have taken place and I sit in the Cabinet

subcommittee and I know that what the Welsh Government

have expressed have been taken on board.

But also, those stakeholders in Wales, the Welsh farming unions

for example, I'm in regular dialogue with them.

Manufacturers in Wales, I am in regular communication with them.

Their views are important because, after all, they are the ones

who are investing the money, they are the ones creating jobs and

making communities sustainable.

It is about doing the right thing for

But isn't your dismissal of their concerns the

I am saying to you, mark Drakeford recently saying,

"there is a job of work for the UK Government to demonstrate

"that it is listening carefully to our concerns."

You are saying, I'm not listening to that.

You are are misinterpreting what I've said.

We are listening to their concerns and we can demonstrate it

It talks specifically about Wales, Scotland

and Northern Ireland and the place they have.

Our objectives are, Welsh Government highlights

unfettered access, we talk about frictionless trade.

We want to secure the interests of the EU nationals that

and across the UK as we do of UK nationals, Welsh

There is so much common ground and I think there is an

awful lot being made about some areas of difference

but clearly the objectives are, we want the same thing.

Steffan Lewis is Plaid Cymru's spokesman on External Affairs,

and Professor Roger Scully heads up Cardiff University's

Thank you both very much for coming in. There was a lot of talk there

about this holding pattern. Powers won't come straight back, they will

be held in a holding pattern. What do you make of that? In

circumstances the Welsh Secretary is wrong. Things like agriculture are

devolved areas right now, powers over those rest with the Assembly in

Wales or the Scottish parliament and the Northern Irish Assembly. Those

powers are exercised within a context that is shaped by European

wide frameworks, regulations, laws and institutions. If we remove

ourselves from the EU, the powers over those policies are still held

by the devolved legislators and governance. You see merits what he

said about it has been in the context of the EU framework, isn't

then edit in having a four country UK wide framework as well?

That is something there seems to be wide consensus on on things like

agriculture. You will need to some degree of UK wide regulation. The

issue is how do you decide that? In the Welsh Government white paper,

they were talking about having UK wide discussions where the different

governments would sit as equals. What Alun Cairns is expressing is

much more the dominant might set of Westminster which is a hierarchical

one that the UK Government and parliament are the superior level on

the devolved institutions are subordinate. It is for the UK

Parliament and government to decide what powers will be held at a

devolved level. That is an attitude that if the UK Government persists

with it, will create problems. I saw one of the reaction of your

colleagues in Westminster, this was the biggest power grab since the act

of union. This is very serious. This is an act

of constitutional aggression on the part of the UK Government. Alun

Cairns is misrepresenting the current situation. When European

frameworks are agreed, the UK Government agree a common UK

position, that is presented at the European Council of ministers on

behalf of the UK and there are occasions where Welsh ministers

represent the common UK position. The European single market

frameworks and is reserved to the UK Government. If and when we leave the

European Union it'll be the Judas diction of the National Assembly in

terms of the frame if that's related to devolved functions. These are not

matters that are in the gift of the UK Government to consult with us

upon. Isn't there that merit of having the

UK wide single market regulation, do you not see any merit in having

that? It should be every legislature for itself? We published a White

Paper recently that said it is going to be a UK internal market that

needs to be governed. Elements of it will be devolved, elements will be

deserved. We need a UK council of ministers to agree European, UK

frameworks between us all and they cannot be enforced by the UK

Government. Alun Cairns is saying we can continue to have devolution of

Ike the cetera. The UK Government is always -- is only sovereign when it

comes to England. His Judas diction ends at Offa's Dyke. -- his duties

diction. In the Great Repeal Bill it says it

is the expectation of the UK Government and the outcome of this

process will be an increase in the decision-making power of each

devolved administration. How come that is aggression? The rhetoric

doesn't match the outcomes. That is what is in writing.

David Davies got up in Parliament and said he envisaged greater

devolution for Wales once we leave the EU. In 24 hours, the UK

Government blocked the devolution of railways to the Welsh Government.

Look at paragraph four, they are interpreting the UK single market is

being the sole preserve of the UK Government and we should be grateful

for that. There is ambiguity there. That is a lot of ambiguity there.

They are calling for things to be held back, you say. They are calling

about intensive discussions with the devolved administrations. As a

reading of this as the constitutional alarm, but that is

another reading which is, let's see how it goes from here. Pass the UK

Government does not have all its plans in place yet. It is saying,

let's see how it goes. The point is, as far as the devolved functions go,

they are devolved, they come out of the duties diction of the Assembly

for Wales. -- Judas diction. Moving forward, this is an alarm bell. We

in Wales after act pre-emptively and I believe we should be publishing an

continuation built urgently to protect our constitution from this

power grab and to end shrine in Warsaw the standards and we enjoy.

When there are these discussions that will go on between each of the

devolved legislatures, this is a need to be, Carwyn Jones is called

for this, a judge sitting above them all somehow arbitrating, in the case

of deadlock, and Alun Cairns would not be drawn on it, who then decides

what happens. Quite possibly the editors need to be, that is a strong

argument to be made we need a fundamental transformation of

intergovernmental negotiations. That would require a fundamental

transformation in the mindset of Whitehall Westminster. There is

deeply embedded their, particularly...

Do you think that is likely to happen? Not at all. It is a

hierarchical mindset in Westminster that the UK Parliament is the

superior, the top level, the devolved institutions are

subordinate. Establishing some sort of relations that would have the

different governments interacting as equals, that'll be a transformation.

That is no sign at all yet with Theresa May and the rest of high

cabinet in Wes -- Westminster will take place. I don't think we're in a

place to agree on that. When you are looking at the job of work that is

to be done in the Great Repeal Bill and Brexit, the amount of civil

service I was needed to get it all done, is the capacity their?

There must be grave concerns about this. Brexit is almost certainty the

most complicated thing the UK state has done since fighting World War

II. It is also the case that their policy-making capacity of the U:K.'s

data because of austerity over recent years is probably at its

lowest point since the end of World War II. We have these two agendas,

which have been pushed by the right-wing of the Conservative Party

of austerity and Brexit smashing into each other. We have the UK

state having to do something complex with a very new did civil service

capacity for doing that. From your point of view, what happens next?

Wales has to now take steps to protect and defend the

constitutional arrangements we have. We have a Mondays for our

constitution. Do you take that into account when they think about the

Great Repeal Bill and Brexit? There was this referendum in 2011?

They haven't considered the Welsh position, we published a

comprehensive White Paper very recently setting out a compromised

position and they have rejected it. We're taking a short break over

Easter and will be back on April 23rd, but we won't be

on air until after 3pm that day for that week only

because of the London Marathon. Don't forget you follow

all the latest on Twitter, we're @walespolitics but for now

that's all from me. So, what will be the effect

of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand

trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really

going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,

I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair

Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems

will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and

see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a

dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in

Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election

rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,

the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of

the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is

because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a

self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local

elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did

very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It

will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no

argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling

you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in

the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections

write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal

Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative

Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But

in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.

In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in

which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over

the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local

elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody

vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren

has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you

are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will

be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your

local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from

previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a

few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to

get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat

councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a

believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to

have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is

having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole

country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we

have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the

deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could

really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big

chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due

in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.

There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is

anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the

Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the

Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them

behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your

party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and

the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up

with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks

for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit

changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal

allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you

start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play

at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40

5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,

removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that

is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax

credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The

Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that

when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better

off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened

to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find

the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?

They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other

organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some

question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory

government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor

poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be

those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the

state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just

about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the

government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She

sounded like a big government conservative not small government.

In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good

the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even

if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as

well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution

Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget

measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked

out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the

demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax

rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.

There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray

in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include

the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not

include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours

of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does

not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.

Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a

problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose

in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has

which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn

Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's

massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through

with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher

rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just

about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the

Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to

ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...

It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A

huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what

Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money

to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the

Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half

days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor

looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to

get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory

manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no

increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices

were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising

again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly

complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to

raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never

end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to

fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with

Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early

election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early

election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster

partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they

could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for

public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on

Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You

can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go

is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He

cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020

without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary

and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up

trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly

not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere

too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal

with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and

they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before

they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital

preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what

they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything

for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are

on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We

should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is

now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the

opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain

is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of

energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they

might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is

it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'

time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that

used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes

on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself

from her party's controversial past,