07/05/2017 Sunday Politics Wales

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

With just a month to go until the general election,

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

But is there still really all to play for?

And tonight we will find out who is the next

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next

month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

There is a lot of new money going into it.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

No, it is new money going into the NHS

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

only getting started, there was plenty of action

still to come. It's not quite the night

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

think the election's just I think leave it

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

winning a single seat. The joke going around

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

and seven councils. If the result is what these

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

the control of a whole council came The section of England

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

but I have one here. With the introduction

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

because I've got some I used to present news,

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

with their best local So another election results

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

which of course means those earning more than that could

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

won its best ever local government performance,

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

Hello again and welcome to the programme, where we look

forward to the general election and bid a fond farewell

But what do the results from Thursday tell us about what's

Let's take a look at the final councillor numbers.

Labour still have the most, though those numbers are down.

The independents are in a strong second place,

followed by Plaid Cymru, who gained 33 seats, taking them

The Conservatives gained most seats on Thursday,

but the Liberal Democrats have fallen back.

Ukip lost its two seats - they now have no councillors in Wales.

Adam Price from Plaid Cymru is with me now.

Thanks for coming in. Looking at last Thursday's results, overall

making some gains across the country but maybe not the breakthrough

someone heard of hoping for? Is the person heading of the campaign to

the Westminster general election, I couldn't have asked for a better

platform. Close to the best results in almost 100 years, the best result

ever in Carmarthenshire and Ynys Mon, in five of the local

authorities as well. The biggest party in the Rhondda, 18,000 votes

for us all told, only 13,000 votes for Labour. It is an incredibly

strong basis and it is no accident either. We live in a time of great

change economically, politically. Traditional Labour voters are

looking for a new political home and many are finding that with Plaid

Cymru. Isn't the main story from last Sunday that you strength your

position in your heartlands? Apart from the Rhondda, the gains have

been very, very modest. Our best ever result in Powys, in

Pembrokeshire. That is one seat in Powys, one seat in Wrexham. Beyond

Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Win NT, Ynys Mon, not a lot to celebrate. I

know we live in the era of fake news but this was closed to within four

seats of the best ever result for Plaid Cymru in a local election in

92 years. Why doesn't the BBC but that is a headline on its news? Were

there missed opportunities? I'm thinking of somewhere like Blaenau

Gwent, whether Labour vote collapsed. You did so well in the

Assembly campaign last year, coming within a couple of hundred votes.

Shouldn't there have been more resources there? In Blaenau Gwent

there was a very strong lead over a movement for independence of the

independent group has come out in favour of Nigel Coppola, the Plaid

Cymru candidate, as has died Davis, who was the people's voice MP. Is

that a target for your MP? The Labour Party are seeing the fight of

their life in Blaenau Gwent and I think we are going to win. In

Blaenau Gwent? We are in very strong contention in a whole host of seats

based on the results we saw in Llanelli, in the Rhondda, clearly

because of the victory, very strong victory, in terms of the seats

there. In Ynys Mon, I think we are in a very strong position, and in

Ceredigion. You see Plaid Cymru momentum happening throughout the

country and it is no accident. People are looking for new

leadership in Wales. They are not going to get it from the Labour

Party have been in power for over 100 years in Wales. We are not going

to get it from a Conservative Party dominated by Tory MPs in the

south-east of England. Everyone is talking about Scotland and Northern

Ireland but who is going to insert Wales into the political landscape?

We will come to the campaign in a moment but as a prediction, you

meant in Llanelli, Ceredigion, Blaenau Gwent, the Rhondda, I'm

assuming you are going to say that you want to keep your current three

seats. Eight seats as a target? We are in contention in North Wales. My

target is to make Wales relevant again. Theresa May is talking about

banging that table in Brussels for Britain. Who is going to be banging

that table down in the corridors of power in Whitehall for Wales? Who is

going to be actually inserting Wales into the political landscape again?

There is only one answer to that. It has to be Plaid Cymru, and that's

why we need to have the biggest ever tally of Plaid Cymru Party of Wales

MPs putting the flag clearly for Wales, speaking up for our nation in

a way that hasn't happened... Table banging aside, what will you be

offering the people of Wales? I can't reach the table from here but

I tell you this, we will be making the strongest case ever for this

nation. We face an economic challenge, and economic opportunity,

but also risks the likes of which we haven't seen for over a generation.

What will your offer be? Let's look at Brexit. That will feature as a

large part of the campaign. What will Plaid Cymru's position be on

Brexit? We should be having the money we were promised during the

Leave campaign. Everyone is saying that. Are they promising Wales the

1.5 billion that we were promised in the Leave campaign? That is our

proportion of the 300 million a week plus the 680 million. That is 30

million a week we were promised that no other party is promising to

deliver. What about the model Brexit should have about single market

access? We saw from Leanne Wood last week she was saying participation.

What form of participation should the UK and Wales have? We are an

export intensive country. It is clearly the case that we need to

protect the access we have to our main markets and that means

effectively being within a single market is the best model for Wales.

That is the best model for Wales because we are such a big exporter

to the European Union. Accent to no control on immigration as a result?

I think the Norway model does have elements of control of freedom of

movement because it is freedom of movement to work and not freedom of

movement as an EU citizen so in that sense it is different. But you can

go to Norway without a job. You have six months to look for a job. Is

that what you are saying Wales and the UK should have? What the Norway

model says is you can interpret that principle and in order to... The

reality is this. Wales is coming out of the European Union, the Tories

are going to win the general election. What is the real question

in this election is who is going to be banging that table for Wales. It

has to be also about how we are going to do it and I'm asking for

more details. The tax levers that we will have now we are leaving the EU,

the ability to set differential that rates to help our tourism sector, to

help our construction sector, we could have those powers in Wales

instead of them lying dormant in England. Let's see those

opportunities given to Wales. We can't regenerate our economy in

Wales if we have both our arms tied behind our back. If we are coming

out of the EU, which we are, then let's mitigate the risks but also

grasp the opportunities that are there for us is and economy. As well

as Brexiters is going to be about taxes, spending and borrowing. What

is the Plaid Cymru position on taxes? We saw from Leanne Wood a

couple of weeks ago, it has to be fair. I think there was a case for

looking at a more progressive income tax system. We are one of the most

unequal countries, as the UK, in the world, and those at the higher end

of the tax bracket, absolutely, should be contributing more. The top

earners up, the tax threshold should be higher? Let's look of corporation

tax. Large companies are not paying their fair share and some of the tax

money is being lost in terms of helping our public services. We have

to have a progressive tax system and a country like Wales, which

unfortunately is one of the poorer parts of the United Kingdom because

we've been let down by Labour and Conservative governments, and we

need to have our fair share of investment in Wales. And we need to

have our fair share of the rest of the programme. Thank you very much.

Let's continue with our look at the general election,

and the Chair of the Welsh Conservative Party has told this

programme his party will benefit from people seeing the poll

So where do Thursday's results leave the Tories

Hundreds of council staff counting thousands of votes in Wales's

When all the figures were totted up, Labour were down over 100

councillors and had lost control of local authorities such

It's Friday lunchtime and they've been counting here in Caerphilly

Looks like it'll all be wrapped up within the next hour

and it's looking pretty encouraging for Labour.

Plaid Cymru were talking up their chances here before

the election but it looks as if Labour will hold

on and hold on pretty and when the results came through,

Labour's majority here was unchanged.

That was a big disappointment for Plaid Cymru, who made progress

in nearby Rhondda Cynon Taff but were still a long

They fared better in the heartlands and ended up with over 200

A solid basis to go into the general election, says one party figure.

What's particularly pleasing, I think, is seeing the gains

in places where we aren't seen as traditionally strong,

in the shadows of the Port Talbot steelworks, in Aberavon,

in Blaenau Gwent, in Wrexham and in Cardiff, even in places

where we haven't quite reached that the winning line,

when you are seeing Plaid Cymru voting numbers going up from around

100 to around 1000, OK it's not a win in that ward

now but goodness me, it changes the political context

when we have another election, as we happen to have coming up

For the Liberal Democrats, this election didn't bring

In fact, they fell further back, including here in the capital,

It doesn't bode well for the general election and any hope

They say, as you draw further down into the figures,

there is some cause for optimism, with their share of the vote

in Cardiff Central, for example, but overall it wasn't a good result.

The party's on the AM says there were some encouraging signs

I think we have to be careful not to make a direct read

across from local government elections through to

undoubtedly, the general election did have an impact, I think,

on some of the decisions that local voters may have made.

What's absolutely clear is that politics is in a state of flux

and there are arguments to be made on doorsteps in the weeks to come.

There was a boost in the number of Conservative councillors

in leases like Pembrokeshire and they tightened their grip

They overtook Labour as the biggest party in the Vale

No big council wins, though, but plenty of encouraging signs,

says the man running their general election campaign in Wales.

The vote for Welsh Labour has steadily gone downwards

Of the Conservatives haven't been able to capitalise on that.

What has happened is that the people who would want to see Labour out,

if you look at the rest of the country, they've only got

the option of voting for the Conservatives,

In Wales, there have been a range of alternatives.

In the general election, it's my expectation that people

will see this as a two-party contest.

The choice is between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.

I see it that way and the public see it that way as well and I think

that is going to be very helpful for the Conservative Party

In England, the Conservatives made big gains from Labour

but Jeremy Corbyn pointed to Wales to show it wasn't all that bad.

But the post-election message from the party leader here,

Carwyn Jones, focused on Welsh Labour, suggesting that

could be the strategy for the general election, too.

But still, in heartlands in Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent,

voters turned from Labour to the independents and overall

I think we've got a caveat that with the fact that in 2012, Labour

We took a lot of seats we weren't expecting to take,

so it was always going to be a bit of a performance in this election.

One thing I think we can take heart from, as Labour Party members,

is we've done far better than the media and the pollsters

have been telling us and there is a real firm foundation

to build on in the next four weeks before the general election.

Ukip had a disastrous election, with no councillors in Wales

Ukip should have a future because there are so many issues

which will be an result in British politics, which the main

Issues relating to immigration, to do with the assimilation

of foreigners who come into the country, to do

with the assimilation of foreign cultures,

to do with political correctness in general.

All of these things are crucial issues.

Who the heck is going to tackle these if not for Ukip?

They will be back in a month's time but party strategists will get

to work straightaway to see how lessons from the local elections can

Joining me now to take us through what all that might mean

are the political analyst Valerie Livingston,

and Leila Gouran from Cardiff Metropolitan University.

Thank you both for coming in. One of the phrases we will be hearing a lot

is read across, how can we look at Thursday's elections and look

forward to June eight? What do you think it tells us for Wales

specifically? Any read across from a local election to a general election

has to, the health warning. Local elections are fought on different

issues, ranging from the very, very local right up to the UK level did

other was a healthy dose of personality politics, which may show

why we saw so many independents win on Thursday night that the direction

of travel is there. It seems Labour on the back foot, the Tories are

doing well, Plaid Cymru's vote is holding up. Were you surprised at

how Labour managed to avoid that nightmare doomsday scenario so many

people were predicting? Actually, OK, they lost a lot but not as bad

as it could have been? That's right, yes it up I was surprised but also

not surprised because it might be down to the Carwyn Jones affect. He

has been in power since 2009. He has led the Welsh Assembly, Welsh Labour

have led the Welsh Assembly for so long now that I think you might have

helped mitigate the negative effects that we see at the national level.

What could we expect from the general campaign? For it to be

Carwyn Jones, Welsh Welsh Welsh? We were saying it is a bit of a win-win

situation for Carwyn Jones at the moment because he has held up as

good as could have been expected in the local elections but at general

elections it is down to Jeremy Corbyn now. People are going to be

voting for who they want sat around the negotiating table. Win over the

devolved nations where being involved in the negotiations. We

heard from Aron Price just now who is going to bang the table for Wales

and he said Plaid Cymru but the danger for smaller parties like

Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, maybe, is that it is going to be Theresa

May versus Jeremy Corbyn and that's almost inevitable from a UK media

point of view. This really is turning into a presidential style

election and that's what the Conservatives want they recognise

that Theresa May is their trump card if you'll excuse the pun. She is

their presidential candidate and she polls much more strongly than Jeremy

Corbyn. That does make a tricky for Tim Farron and Leanne Wood to get a

lead in to this election. I guess for them it is about bringing

forward innovative policies of very effective targeting locally. But

then it surprises me that she won't go for a TV debate. If it is

head-to-head and she's so far ahead in the polls compared to Corbyn, why

not go on the TV? If you are advising her, would you tell to go

for it or just play it and not to bother. For the sake of democracy

and the election campaign I would recommend she participates but she

has everything to lose. Should she make a gaffe in an election

campaign, which is likely, for someone who likes to control as much

as Theresa May does, that is not ideal for her. Equally, because it

might give Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron more airtime. We can expect

this to be dominated by Brexit, more than likely. As somebody who has

spent so much time analysing the European context of things, what do

you make of the nature of the debate you have seen so far? I think in

terms of Brexit it is quite open a stick at the moment. There doesn't

seem to be any real depth to the slogans we are hearing. We hear

strong and stable from the Conservatives. Very catchy but

without any real depth. We wait to see what happens with these

manifestos, what will be coming out of next week or so, to see what's in

there, but very slow the moment. The Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru put

together a white paper where they set out what they wanted for Wales

during Brexit but it hasn't really been adopted by the UK Labour

government so there is still uncertainty there. We have to wait

and see what is in the manifestos. Do you think people will, when the

manifestos come out and we see more detail about what the different

parties won from Brexit, will they've bothered to listen to it or

will they just hear the slogans and follow that? It seems at the moment

but the slogans have it. With the TB debate error or TV debates, that

might be a way to get those messages out of voters but with Theresa May

not participating, maybe it will have a difference on how the votes

go, especially if we have some strong messages from Labour and

Plaid Cymru. We saw a couple of weeks ago, and we are suspecting

some more, some Wales specific polls. That last poll suggested the

Tories were ten points ahead of Labour and they could be winning

over 20 seats. Do you think that could turn out to be the case? I

think that poll was a mixed blessing for the Conservatives, coming when

it did. It set expectations absolutely sky-high for the local

elections. There was going to be another poll out tomorrow so we will

find out then if the last poll was an outlier or if it is a trend and

might be borne out in seats on June eight. You say the Tories are being

very optimistic. We just had Aron Price talking a Plaid Cymru's

chances in places like Blaenau Gwent. Is he being really

optimistic? I think there will be real questions to answer for Plaid

Cymru if they don't win Ynys Mon but there are a few other wild cards and

plate on top Blaenau Gwent, possibly even the Rhondda. They can't make

advances at this election, when will they? At the same time, I guess one

of the things they saw on Thursday was the Lib Dems and Ukip having a

fairly tough time. Do you think that's something we will see for the

general election? I think you could have served their purpose touted

they are one issue party. We've voted to leave the EU and there is

no clear policy from Ukip on how we take that forward. But we saw Neil

Hamilton earlier on on the UK programme saying that maybe what

they should be pushing themselves is a low tax, cutting foreign aid, a

real further right of centre party. Do you think there is appetite for a

party like that? Probably not in Wales where the Tories only picked

up eight seats in the local elections. I think anything further

right then that wouldn't hold much water in Wales. What do you think? I

think it is absolutely right to say you could wear a single issue party

and they have served their purpose. I fancy a space for a further right

party. If you look at the National Assembly for Wales, even the

Conservative Party there is largely to the left of the Conservatives.

What about the Lib Dems? They had a very difficult night last year, a

very difficult election in 2015. Where does it enter the Lib Dems? I

think the real difficulty for them now is that they have lost their

infrastructure, their party organisation, so they might start to

rebuild from this point but I think it could take a generation for them

to get back in the they were in. You mean foot soldiers? Door knockers?

The people who organise the leaflets, which is a remarkably

time-consuming job. Have they reached a point where they just

won't come back or it will take longer? I don't only have reached

that point because I think there is still a Liberal Democrat presence in

pockets across the UK but whether or not they can come back to be that UK

wide party again, with seats in all administrations, remains to be seen.

Thank you very much. We will be looking at it for the next few

weeks. That's it for another week. I hope you enjoy me next Sunday for

more news and analysis. Don't forget we're

@walespolitics on Twitter. housing associations and investment,

but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.

Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the

party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin

with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for

four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this

election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she

thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,

she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with

accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks

when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the

manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in

the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.

She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big

she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of

strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,

they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that

the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with

it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody

over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few

things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,

they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to

the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a

question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later

on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her

interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short

manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,

aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think

Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local

candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much

framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not

a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and

the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the

population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle

England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be

her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big

slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the

public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is

happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The

Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he

denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before

saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a

Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe

that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended

not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe

that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand

systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the

economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a

generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,

yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution

my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,

I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have

untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been

exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about

to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,

when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he

would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is

clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described

it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.

There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.

Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in

constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the

former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they

could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with

their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that

there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous

battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,

where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because

of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway

that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election

results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear

that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John

McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it

would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is

not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but

maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with

30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it

reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they

said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million

votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that

manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of

holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform

on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and

desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say

that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as

an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top

party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and

decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential

candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching

straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the

Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.

Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a

dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89

MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not

know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative

vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.

Four weeks to go, but not for France...

France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get

a first estimate of who will be the country's next President

Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.

The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal

reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist

Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.

The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential

hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.

The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,

and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before

campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said

it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,

with a trove of documents released online.

The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,

and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading

details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.

I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist

As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus

that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any

reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there

have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have

decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was

agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as

president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le

Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something

huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,

he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,

then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a

fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his

reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his

programme through? I think that right now, with how things are

looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the

Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want

to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at

the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on

how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very

well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an

adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of

France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three

years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She

would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le

Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and

ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of

that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?

Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le

Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that

2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just

five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the

election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here

on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair

indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on

BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every

turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One

at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics.