30/04/2017 Sunday Politics Wales

It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,

but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto

promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.

The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously

agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but

And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's

Later in the programme, the Tories to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne

Later in the programme, the Tories on brink of a historic breakthrough

in Wales? May the They hit an all-time low

after coalition government, but are the Lib Dems

poised to bounce back, And with me to analyse

the week's politics, Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards,

Tom Newton-Dunn. They'll be tweeting

using the hashtag #bbcsp. So when Theresa May was interviewed

just over an hour ago on The Andrew Marr Show,

the Prime Minister was asked to confirm that she would repeat

David Cameron's 2015 election promise not to raise VAT,

national insurance and income tax We have absolutely no plans

to increase the level of tax, but I'm also very clear that I don't

want to make specific proposals on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure

that I can deliver on those. But it is, would be my intention

as a Conservative Government and a Conservative Prime Minister,

to reduce the taxes The Tories like to have a clear tax

message in elections, are they getting into a bit of a mess? That

method wasn't clear, but does it mean, saying they have no plans to

increase the level of tax? We are clear there will not be a rise in

VAT, a lot of commentators will get overexcited about that, but there

was no great expectations there would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as

it is, because even one percentage point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for

the exchequer so it is tempting but there has been no speculation that

would happen. We can see that she clearly wants to reiterate the

language about hard-working families but I don't think we are that much

the wiser. Even if she does not put up rates, according to projections

the overall tax burden, as a percentage of GDP, is rising, will

rise in the years ahead. That is why it was an odd phrase, I know she is

doing it to be evasive but to say they have no plans to raise the

general level of taxation, they do have. We also know they have

specific plans because it was in the last budget, they had a tax rise

which they had to revise, National Insurance rises, so very wisely in

my view they are keeping options open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate

was a fantasy world, totally unrelated to the demands that would

follow. They now have the flexibility, one of the arguments

you had heard last time was Philip Hammond saying to her, we have to

break away from the 2015 manifesto commitment and we can only do it

this way, that is one of the better arguments. The Tories like to talk

about tax cuts in elections, whether they do it is another matter, but

they are not being allowed to talk about tax cuts, they are now on the

defensive over whether they will raise taxes. That is not a healthy

position for the campaign to be in. If you look at the numbers, quite

frankly, if you will not do this at this election with eight 20 point

lead over Labour, then when will you take these tough decisions? Reading

between the lines of what Theresa May has said all over different

broadcasters this morning, income tax will go down for low-income

families, such as the threshold rise that microbes that was already

factored in. She has had to commit to it again. VAT will be fat,

national insurance contributions will go up. Do you think they will

go up? I think so, she had plenty of opportunity to rule it out and she

didn't. There was a terrible mess with the budget, it is a good tax

argument but not a good electoral argument that you are eroding the

base so heavily with people moving into self-employment that as you

raise national insurance contributions for everybody but the

self-employed, it is something the Treasury will have to look at. The

other triple lock on pensions, we don't know if they will keep to that

either? If they are sensible they will find a form of words to give

them flexibility in that area as well. I would say there is no

question over that, that has gone. As Mrs May would say, you will have

to wait for the manifesto. That is what all the party leaders tell me!

Labour have spent the weekend pushing their messages

Speaking at a camapign rally in London yesterday,

Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour government would fix what he called

People are fed up, fed up with not being able to get somewhere to live,

fed up waiting for hospital appointments, fed up with 0-hours

contracts, fed up with low pay, fed up with debt, fed up with not being

able to get on in their lives because we have a system that is

rigged against so many. I've been joined from Newcastle

by Labour's elections and campaigns co-ordinator,

Ian Lavery. Good morning. To deal with this

rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls it, the Shadow Chancellor John

McDonnell has a 20 point plan for workers out today. When you add up

everything he plans to do to help workers, how much will it cost? The

full costings, one thing I need to say at the very beginning, the

costings of any policy which we have already ruled out and any policy we

will be ruling out in the next few days and weeks will be fully costed

in the manifesto and in addition to the fact that it will be fully

costed, we will see it in the manifesto how indeed it has been

funded, so we are very clear, anything we have seen already, and

there are some exciting policy releases and there will be more in

the future, anything we are going to do will be fully costed and in the

manifesto. You announced a 20 point plan but cannot tell me what the

costs will be this morning so at the moment it is a menu without prices?

It is not a menu without prices, it is a fantastic opportunity. This 20

point plan is something which will transform the lives of millions of

millions of people in the workplace... But what is the cost?

It will be welcomed by many people across the UK. The fact the costings

have not been released, you will have to be patient, it will be

released very clearly, it will identify that in the manifesto. Let

me come down to one of the points, the end of the public sector pay

freeze. Can you give us any idea how much that will cost? The end of the

public sector pay freeze, so important to the future of the

Labour Party, it is an massive policy decision. Let me say at this

stage, Theresa May, the Prime Minister, this morning, on The

Andrew Marr Show, did not have the common decency, courtesy all respect

to condone the fact that nurses, the heroes of the NHS, have had a

reduction of nearly 14% in their wages since 2010 and are using food

banks to feed themselves! Does that not say everything that is wrong

with today's society? So can you tell me what it will cost, which is

what my question was? What I will say is everything the Labour Party

pledges, everything that we come out with, what we will roll out between

now and the 8th of June, will be fully costed, people will be very

much aware of how much the costings will be, where the funding will come

from, when the manifesto is published. What about doubling

paternity leave, nu minimum wage, four new bank holidays, any idea

what it will cost? These are exciting new

proposals and of course today cost money but we are the sixth richest

economy in the world. It is about redistribution of the wealth we

create. We are seeing growth in the economy, it is how we utilise the

finances in the best way we possibly can for a fairer society for the

many and not the few. You just can't tell me how much it will cost? That

is why I will repeat again that you need to be very patient. Do you know

the cost yourself? You are the head of the campaign, do you know the

cost of these things yourself? I am very much aware of how much the

costings are likely to be, they have been identified, they will be

published in the manifesto. You really do understand I would not be

releasing today, live on your show, any costings or predictions with

regards the manifesto. Why not? You have released the policy, why not

the cost? Because there is a fine detail and we will identify it to

the general public in the manifesto. We not only explain how much it will

cost but we will explain where the funding comes from. Be patient. Will

some of the costs be met by increasing taxes? I would think at

this point in time there is not any indication to increase basic taxes

and again the taxes and spending of the Labour Government with the

proposals of the 20 point plan, the issues we have got, housing, the

NHS, crime, education will all be identified with the costings in the

publication. Can you tell us this morning, we'll tax for most people

rise or not to finance this? We in the Labour Party are looking to a

fair tax system which will be clearly identified in the manifesto.

Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all 0-hours contracts. Would that

include those who actually like those contracts? There are nearly 1

million, depending on which figured you'd use, there are nearly 1

million people on zero-hours contract and the vast proportion of

those want to be able to live a decent life, a secure life, they

want to understand whether they will be at work the next day, they're

included hours... I understand a lot of people don't like zero-hours

contract and your proposal will address that, but there are those, I

saw one survey where 65% of people on zero-hours contract like the

flexibility it gives them. Will you force them off zero-hours contract

or if they like them will they continue with them? We will discuss

it with employee is to make sure individuals in the workplace have

the right to negotiate hours in that workplace. Guaranteed hours is very,

very important. Zero-hour contracts are an instrument in which employers

abuse and exploit mainly young people, mainly female people in the

workplace. We would be banning zero-hour contract. But there are

those, students for example, who like them, would they be forced off

zero-hour contracts in your proposal? Our proposal would be

banning zero-hour contract and introducing contracts which have set

hours in the workplace. You also say no company will be able to bid for a

public contract unless the boss earns no more than 20 times the

lowest paid, or the average wage, I'm not quite sure which. What would

happen if British Aerospace bids to build more joint strike Fighters and

the boss is paid more than 20 times? I understand the point you raise but

we have an obscene situation in this country, Andrew, in which the bosses

at the very top make an absolute fortune... But what would happen

then? Who would build joint strike Fighters... The difference in wages

between the top earners in the country and the people in the

factories, in the workshops, producing the goods, is vast. I

understand that is the reason you want a ratio. What I am saying is,

what happens if the ratio is greater? Who gets the contract if

not British Aerospace? Who else builds the planes? We are going to

introduce a wage rate CEO of one to 20. -- wage ratio. We want to close

the gap between the people at the very top and people who produce the

goods. Let me try one more Time, who would build the joint strike

fighter? We would look at the issue as it came along but the policy is

clear... Can you name a single defence contractor weather boss'

salary is less than 20 times average earnings? We are not reducing, we

have rolled that out as part of this fantastic plan to transform society

to get rid of discrimination, to try and bring together our communities.

We will introduce a pay ratio of one to 20. Fair enough, thank you very

much. It's a month after the triggering

of Article 50, and EU leaders - with the exception of Britain -

met in Brussels this weekend to agree their opening negotiating

stance, to get the divorce It is inside this psychedelic

chamber where Britain's 'Grexit' future will be decided over the next

two years, but there is a vast gulf in rhetoric coming from the UK and

the EU. With parallel narratives emerging for both sides. There is

broad agreement that an orderly withdrawal is in the interests of

both sides. But Theresa May's position is that the terms of our

future trade deal should be negotiated alongside the terms of

our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says the terms of the UK's exit must be

decided before any discussion on a future trade deal can begin. But

don't forget that divorce settlement. Don't remind me. In

Brussels, many think written should pay even more, while in the UK

ministers said the divorce bill should be capped at 3 billion. After

you. Thank you. For are you looking forward to it?

Isn't that divorce bill a bit high? Isn't this about punishing Britain?

We are very united, you all seem so surprised but it's a fact. How soon

can we get a deal? We have to wait for the elections. It was the

decision of Mrs May. It took over an hour for the leaders to make their

entrances but once inside it's just a few minutes to agree the

negotiating guidelines. They set out three main areas. The first phase of

talks on the divorce settlement will deal with the existing financial

commitments to the EU, the Northern Ireland border and the rights of EU

citizens in the UK. They said a UK trade agreement can be discussed

when the first phase of talks reaches significant progress. And

that there must be unity in the negotiations, that individual EU

members won't negotiate separately with the UK. They are quite good

here at negotiating because they are used to it. They set a maximum and

then they have to recede a little bit depending on what the other side

is prepared to offer. I think there is room for manoeuvre in some

issues, but I don't think some of the baseline things will change that

much. For example I don't think the European Union will concede on the

rights of citizens who are already in the UK. It will be very difficult

for them to accept that they will not be any exit bill, and the

question of Northern Ireland is very important as well, the hard order

question. The baseline things are not going to move that much, then

you have room for manoeuvring between. On security, defence and

the fight against terrorism, the guidelines said the EU stands ready

to work together. And after lunch, friendly signs from some EU leaders

as they gave individual press conferences. Paul and said the talks

should open doors to new opportunities and even German

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had earlier said some in Britain were

deluded about Brexit, softened her tone saying there was no conspiracy

against the UK. Unity was the buzzword at this summit and for once

everybody seemed to be sticking to the script. That unity is not only

amongst the 27 states, it's also among the institutions so many of

the divisions we have seen in the past at European level do not exist.

That is very important and it's not be unity that is directed somehow

against the UK because I think we all want this to be an orderly

process and part of that is that the EU side is unified. So although

there are no surprises here, what took place in this room was a

significant step towards the real Brexit negotiations which will begin

soon after the general election in June, said to be the most complex

the UK has faced in our lifetimes. Isabel, Steve and Tom

are still with me. Isabel, doesn't the British media

have to be a bit careful here? We would never take at face value

anything a British politician tells us. We would question it, put it in

context and wonder if they are bluffing, but we seem to take at

face value anything a European politician says about these

negotiations. You only have to look at the front page of the Sunday

Times today to see that. They quoted at length Juncker, who didn't like

the food at the reception and this and that, and I think the mood is

very optimistic. The key thing is the EU trade Commissioner has said

we will get a free trade deal and a lot of people seem to be wilfully

ignoring that incredibly big concession. That is what will happen

in their view. Everything that is said at the moment needs a slight

rerun over. They are all in negotiating positions, plus we seem

to be completely unaware that they all have their own domestic

constituencies as well. Angela Merkel has an important election

coming up in September, Euroscepticism is quite different

from Britain of course, but there's a different kind of euro scepticism

in Germany, she has got to deal with that. Of course she has, which is

why you are right, nothing should be taken too seriously out of the

mouths of British politicians or European politicians until October

this year. We have got to wait for the French elections, then German

elections, and if you look through this you can see a way forward.

There's no trade talks until pay up, but what was actually written was no

trade talks until we make significant progress on the money.

You can define significant progress in a lot of ways but come December,

fireworks over the summer, we all get very excited about it, in these

chairs I'm sure, come December things will look a lot smoother. The

German elections are at the end of September but I've seen reports in

German press, depending how it goes it could take until Christmas before

a new coalition government is put together. The Brussels long-standing

negotiating tactic of nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,

then I guess the British could say we agree a certain sum of money if

that's what it takes but that depends on them, what good trade

deal we get. If we don't get that, the sum of money is off the table.

In that sense, the two are going parallel. However, I wouldn't

entirely dismiss what people are saying in their pre-election periods

to their own electorates because they have to some extent to deliver

subsequently. Of course Angela Merkel is campaigning and

electioneering, who wouldn't, she has a tough election to fight, but

she is measured and thoughtful and when she says things like some of

the British are delusional, that is unusually strong language for her.

What was she referring to? I don't know, it wasn't specific. Have the

cake and eat it perhaps the sequencing the British don't want.

When they thought the British government was going to effectively

demand membership of the single market, that's not going to happen

now. Unless you sign up to the four pillars, that's the cake and eat it

proposition, which they are right in saying Theresa May has made. But

everybody has access, even with no deal you have access. The other side

of it is I think there will be a united position from them. And so,

as somebody pointed out in that report, they are experienced, tough

negotiators, so I don't think it will be quite as easy as some think.

I spoke to one of those who drew up Article 50 and they said to me they

deliberately put this two year timetable in to make it impossible

for anybody to think about leaving. This is really tight, this

negotiation. Easy, it isn't. This coming Thursday,

voters up and down the country will be going to the polls in this

year's local elections. Over the past few weeks I've

interviewed representatives of the Conservative Party,

Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Today it's the turn

of Plaid Cymru and the SNP. A little earlier I spoke

Alex Salmond, who until 2014 I started by asking him why Scots

should vote SNP in local elections when the Scottish Government had

just cut central Government funding It's actually a funding increase

going into Scottish councils this year, and if you look at the funding

position for example between Scottish councils and those in

England, which are obviously directly related through the Barnett

formula, the funding in Scotland has been incomparably better than that

in England so there's a whole range of the -- of reasons... What's

happening south of the border indicates the protection the

Scottish Parliament has been able to put in that helps vital services in

Scotland. But there hasn't been a funding increase, the block grant

from Westminster to Edinburgh was increased by 1.5% in real terms but

the grant to councils was cut by 2.6%. It was going to be a cut of

330 million, the Greens got you to reduce it to 170 million but it is

still a cut of 2.6%. Your own Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut

to 391 million. You have cut the money to councils. Yes, but councils

have available to them more resources this year, and as you say

the budget increased that further which is why we put forward an

excellent local government budget in Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory

attempts to knock ?3 million off... You asked me about Aberdeenshire,

and Aberdeenshire has put forward a budget for investment expansion and

resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off the education budget,

and I'm very grateful you have given me the opportunity to make that

point. The Government in Edinburgh has cut the money to Aberdeenshire

by ?11 million. It is a cut. But there is an investment budget in

Aberdeenshire that has been made available by the ability to increase

the council tax by 2.5% after a nine-year freeze in Scotland, and

that has brought more resources into local government and that's why the

butchered in Aberdeenshire has been an investment budget including

protection of the education budget in the face of a Tory and liberal

attempt to cut bit. You have to compare what is happening in

Scotland and England, and there's no doubt Scottish local authorities

have been much better funded than those in England over the last few

years and that's been the ability of the Scottish Government to protect

the services at local level. A good reason for voting SNP. If they have

been so well funded, why after a decade of SNP rule do one in five

Scottish pupils leave primary school functionally illiterate? You have

got to take these things... Nicola Sturgeon has made it a top priority

to address these challenges but let's take another statistic. 93% of

Scottish kids are now emerging from school to positive destinations,

that means to further education, apprenticeships or work. Why are one

in five functionally illiterate? You argue one statistic, I'm arguing

Scottish education is putting in some substantially good performances

like the 93% going on to positive destinations. You can't have a

failing education system if you have got that 93%, and incidentally a

record low youth unemployment in Scotland without the second lowest

unemployment rate in Europe. These pupils are being prepared by the

Scottish education system. Let's take the figures in the round on

education. It's so important. Under your watch, under your government,

the Scottish schools in the most important global comparison have

fallen from tenth to 19th in science, and 11 to 24th in maths,

that is a record of decline and failure. That is by the OECD and

first questions about that, but the OECD has also described Scotland is

one of the best educated societies in the world. That was from the

school system in previous years gone by. For those who are currently in

Scottish schools, you have fallen from 11th to 24th in mathematics.

The OECD was commenting on introduction of the new curriculum

for excellence in which they have given a resounding thumbs up to it,

and that's the same source as the rankings which you are comparing.

Nicola Sturgeon has said there are challenges on Scottish education,

particularly the access through the education system and the attainment

gap but don't tell me it's failing when 55% of our pupils have gone on

to higher education. That's one of the most impressive figures in the

world. Why have you cut 4000 teachers? The pupil numbers in

Scotland have been falling over recent years as well and now of

course we are increasing the number of people going through teachers

training so we can make sure that number increases, but listen, the

Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament, as you very well know,

are subject to real terms spending cuts over the last few years and all

public services have been under pressure. The main reason in terms

of teacher numbers has been an attempt on the Scottish Government

to protect the teacher pupil ratio, and that will now be enhanced by a

further taker -- intake. You promised you would reduce primary

class sizes to 18 and instead they are now 23.5 and rising. You broke

that promise. You didn't mention where we started from. We have kept

the teacher pupil ratio very solid in Scotland and that's been against

a range of public expenditure cuts but the new intake of teachers into

the new teacher training in Scotland I think will enhance the system.

You have spent in the pasty in Hollywood 43 hours on Government

time debating independence. How many hours have you debated education on

Government time? I don't have that they get a hand... The answer is

zero, you have spent zero-hours debating education on Government

time. Isn't it time the SNP got back to concentrating on the day job?

Andrew, as you very well know Nicola Sturgeon has identified a key

priority, closing the attainment gap in Scottish education. That is

exactly what she has done. Let me answer the question, it is difficult

to be in a remote location, if you talk before I answer the question

then the view was will not be able to listen. I let you answer that

without saying a word. Is this general election about independence,

as you say it is, or not about independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says

it is? No, I have said exactly the same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The

issue what independence will be decided in a national referendum of

the Scottish people. The mandate for that referendum was gained in last

year's Scottish elections. What this election is about is backing the

right of the Scottish parliament to exercise that mandate and also

providing real opposition to this Tory Government and allowing the

Scottish Parliament to reverse austerity and some of the public

expenditure cutbacks you have been talking about, that is what this is

about, backing our Scottish Parliament.

Alex Salmond, speaking to me earlier.

I'm now joined by the leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood.

You accuse the Government of wanting an extreme Brexit, those are your

words. What is the difference between hard Brexit and extreme

Brexit? My concern is the way in which we leave the European Union

could be very damaging to Wales if, for example, there are tariffs

introduced then that would have a real impact in terms of Welsh jobs,

and I want to make sure that we have a Brexit that doesn't cause the

damage to Wales that could be caused. But what is the difference

between extreme and hard? Anything that puts Welsh jobs at risk is

either extreme or hard and unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we

will do what we can to protect those jobs. You want Wales to remain a

member of the single market even if the UK isn't, which would mean Wales

having to accept the free movement of people, still being under the

jurisdiction of the European Court, and you also want to stay in the

customs union which means you could not do your own free trade deals.

What is the difference between that and being a member of the European

Union? We would be like Norway, outside the European Union and

inside the single market. The key question is the issue of jobs and

the ability to continue to trade. Wales exports, we are the biggest

exporter in the whole of the UK, so there are many jobs reliant upon

those goods being able to be sold to the single market. Is it central to

the UK? Out of the four countries that make up the UK...

Proportionally, yes. If you remain in the single market, it is hard to

see how Wales could stay in the single market if the UK -- when the

rest of the UK was not, you cite Norway, that has free movement, it

has to be said, it effectively have to accept the jurisdiction of the

European Court, it is not in the customs union so it can do some of

its own free trade deals, but the Welsh people voted to leave. We have

to accept the principle of free movement if there is not going to be

a hard border between the north and south of Ireland. There is going to

be free movement within Ireland and therefore freedom of movement, as we

said in the referendum campaign, would be very, very difficult to

rule out. You lost that campaign, as you know, Wales voted to leave, 17

Council areas voted to leave, only five voted to remain. Doesn't it

explain why your party is going nowhere? A majority in Wales voted

to leave but you effectively want to support that and de facto remain in

the EU? I don't accept that, we accepted the result but Plaid Cymru

now is about defending Wales. There are so many risks facing our people

from the jobs perspective, the privatisation perspective, the cuts

perspective, and from the fact that the Tories would like to grab power

was back from our National Assembly, so the key point... If you look at

the Wales bill that went through recently, the list of reserved

powers there suggests there are some powers currently within the Welsh

Assembly jurisdiction that would be dragged back. Which power was will

Westminster take back? They could take powers back over the NHS, for

example. There is no indication they want to do that. The Tories have

attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my point! Quite viciously. If they

increase their mandate, I wouldn't put it past them to try to take

power was back over the NHS and then of course we risk our NHS being

privatised though this election is all about defending Wales,

protecting Welsh people from further privatisation and cuts and a power

grab from the Tories. Why is there never a breakthrough for your party,

Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in Wales for years, the Tories do quite

well, Ukip had a surge for a while, it looks like the Tories will have

another surge, never you, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait

until Thursday and I think you will see that in many parts of Wales we

will increase our representation at a local council level. In the

Rhondda, where I am assembly member, we are looking to increase our

representation... You are only 13% in the polls will stop which is half

of even the Tories in Wales! If you don't breakthrough in the selection,

if the real problem is going nowhere, do you think you will pack

it in? Robert Green not, I have a job to do, a vision of Wales which

is about building up our nation and standing on our own two feet and my

job is not done yet. Thank you for being with us as part of your job,

we will see how it goes on Thursday. It's just gone 11.35,

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

in Scotland who leave us now Hello again and welcome to our buy

one get one free election special. In a few minutes our report

from the campaign trail And that extraordinary Welsh opinion

poll we saw last week which put the Conservatives ten points

ahead of Labour. So what does it all mean, and how

are all the main parties doing? Jo Kiernan is the former Chief of

Staff to the Labour First Minister, and Dr Sam Blaxland

from Swansea University is an expert in the history

of the Welsh Conservative Party. Thank you both are coming in.

Locking at that Paul last week, from a Labour point of view, it is

difficult to imagine when they seeing worst polling in Wales. It

was awful, there's no dressing it up. Interestingly, though, you might

have expected Labour to have got loads to do Lib Dems, we've had

talks of a Lib Dem resurging scum Leanne Wood talking that they can

stand up for Wales. Actually, we saw a collapse of the Ukip abode, a lot

of Labour voters voted at Ukip last time switching their allegiance to

the Tory party. It all plays into Theresa May basing this, one issue

election, Brexit collection and it'll be hard to come back. What I

would see as having been involved in the election campaign last year,

involved in writing the manifesto, messaging and the strong standing up

for Wales message that we had then, is that the pundits were writing us

off, they were saying 23 seats, Carwyn Jones wouldn't be First

Minister, things changed. The one thing the Labour Party has to get

right is some very, very strong messaging in the 40 days ahead. When

you see the Labour Party has together messaging, strong messaging

for 40 days, do you see that as a UK Labour Party, or would you be

tempted to say, let's focus, let's try rerun last year's election, have

a Welsh election campaign here? You see some of that inevitably. There

are lots of individual local elections going on, it was bad, you

can't really uniform swing across. I don't think by any stretch of the

imagination, sadly, Jeremy Corbyn will get a majority. But I think

were some strong messaging, both locally and the UK level, a strong

manifesto that shows there is a lot more at stake at the selection

rather than just Brexit. Theresa May doesn't want to talk about things

like benefit cuts, like tuition fee cuts, like the economy, house

prices, GDP slumping, but there are some important things going to

happen in the next five years, we need strong messaging, both

nationally and locally. We will come onto the issues of the election, but

just from that opinion Paul, I was looking back, 1859, the last time

the Conservatives had more MPs than any other party in Wales, but only

500,000 could bode back then. Are we over egging it saying it could

happen, or is it a possibility? There is a more modern president, in

1983, when Mrs Thatcher won 14 seats in Wales. There is a bedrock of

support here, it is masked by the voting system, by first past the

post, which doesn't always reveal there are these boards and other

places. As we all know, Labour is the dominant party in Wales. A

Conservative is the last 100 years have been a second party, in terms

of the vote share and the valve seats one. Unless you look at

something like the 1997 election when they were wiped away, in the

vast majority of cases, the Conservatives are more popular in

Plaid Cymru. Is it how Ukip has played into this, people have left

Labour Ukip, but rather than returning to Labour, they're going

to the Tories now? Is that where a lot of the support is coming from?

I'm sure there is an element of that. It has always been a

fascination, where has the Ukip vote come from? Is it the old core Labour

support or the Conservative vote? They did well in those south Wales

valleys seats, regardless of how bad it is, it will still stay Labour. It

won't benefit the Conservatives if they lose those seeds. -- seats. You

mentioned it was going to be a Brexit election, Theresa May does

seem to be saying other than staying strong, she always says Brexit

negotiations. From a Labour point of view and a Welsh Labour point of

view, that a tricky one. Wales voted to leave, Labour isn't very clear in

his messaging on Brexit. Where should they go on that? That is one

of the problems, I don't think the choice is great for people in either

other leaders, I don't think Theresa May is charismatic, she is

conducting a campaign in a sealed room, doesn't talk to journalists,

gets a Scottish Conservative leader to interview her. Jeremy Corbyn is

entrusted on Brexit and the economy. But as more charismatic, likes

getting out amongst the people, it is a tough choice. The reason she's

framing it and is Brexit only is because she doesn't want to talk

about other policies. Here I think you will see people talk and much

more about what a Labour government in Wales has done, because we

actually have one here. I'm trying to get some of those other policy

issues out. People are finding it tough out there, even people with

jobs. Massive rises are people using food banks. They need to push

Theresa May to come up with policies, not allow her to carry on

stable, secure, Brexit, Brexit. Is it all to lose but Theresa May? You

just look at the opinion poll, but also of a UK wide opinion polls. She

has is massively, but things can only go down. I was going to say.

One had a large majority that any of Mrs Thatcher's landslides. If he

doesn't achieve that, whether she go? We have to be careful about the

uniform swing point. Yes, the voters may be moving towards the

Conservatives, but not at all seats. If we are going to judge success on

number of seats won, perhaps they won't do as well in Wales as they

might hope. Some of the seat will be marginal. The big spanner we can

throw into works is how Brexit will feature in the election, how will it

make people vote, would be bold be tempted to bode Lib Dem, say, I

voted to leave. Could that play in the concept is's favour? Shi it will

be one of the most fascinating things. -- it will be one of the

most fascinating things. There are lots of things to watch, Anglesey

will be interesting. It Brexit is in plain strongly, Plaid Cymru might

catch up. Whilst they support the idea of leaving the EU, they clearly

are angling for votes, they have a standpoint which is about being

pro-EU. If, for example, it went to Plaid Cymru, it might suggest people

falling that way. It to the Conservatives, that might be an

indication Brexit has played a larger role than than some may

think. Which is what Theresa May ones. The interesting thing is as

the only main pro-EU party, I kind of expected the Lib Dems to being

doing better. We've heard talk of a resurgence, not much evidence of

that. They will be disappointed. I remember in 2010, all the attention

of the campaign was, it's going to be between conservative and Labour,

Brown versus cameramen, and the Lib Dems did well. How difficult is it

for small parties -- Cameron. It is difficult. Especially, this is being

framed in terms of Brexit and Brexit only, it even harder. It Brexit is

the main talking point, you would expect the Lib Dems to be getting

some feed in there. It is not happening. I'm just not convinced we

can go the next 40 days, six weeks just talking Brexit only. And

actually, there will be stumbling blocks along the way. We know that,

I've worked on another campaigns, both as an adviser and journalist,

to know the unexpected happens. You only have to look at what happened

to Gordon Brown on the campaign trail. Looking at where Plaid Cymru

would be targeting, they are hoping, looking at, Leanne Wood, would she,

wouldn't you? Is that what they need to be picking up? What the most

intriguing thing is about their support and its successes or

failures is it can't do it, there is a vacuum being left by Labour. That

Plaid Cymru can't fill. That is because it is still perceived as a

party which has a particularly appeal on the linguistic grounds, it

still has a Welsh language parliament, despite Leanne Wood not

being fluent. Welsh nationalism has a narrower appeal in the types of

places, Llanelli, where the party might try and get a foothold. But

they might struggle, Labour Party politics in these places. Labour

voting is more than just politics, it is very much a sign of belonging

to a kind of political community. That will still remain strong in a

lot of these places, that Plaid Cymru will want to target. But

you're advising hat back on the campaign, where should Labour be

targeting its resources? It doesn't have an infinite pot of money, it

has to target it. It doesn't need to be looking for new places, it needs

to target the ones they've got. I think fair wind, Gower is an odd

contingency, there should be no change there. I wouldn't mind a

punt. I think Labour will keep Cardiff Central. I think the

north-east Wales seats are really big challenges in this election.

And, you know, it is going back to the referendum campaign, there was

so much anger and fear around, and those constituencies sum that up,

Labour need to show they are standing up for people, they

understand people's needs and reassure them there is a sensible

Brexit message. 40 days, plenty of time for those messages.

Now as promised, spare a thought for the other elections happening

The head of the Welsh Local Government Association says he's

worried the General Election is overshadowing the poll

No confusion about the date though, May the 4th.

Easy to remember if you're a Star Wars fan of course.

On Thursday, local elections will be held to Wales's 22 councils.

There are more than 1200 seats up for grabs

as voters decide who they'd like to run some of the most important

Voting for your local councillor, you've got to bear

in mind those issues that impact outside your front door, your local

Litter, street lights, all the things in terms of parks,

Those big services, education, social care

So I think they will be key factors in terms of people's

Whoever is elected this week will face tough decisions

over the coming years, as council budgets are

authorities are expected to make savings by working more closely

Austerity has not been shut down, we know that next year,

Mark Draper has warned about this, that the Welsh

be very tight next year, we'll probably see further cuts in terms

And we will require a range of very tough

and difficult decisions from

new councillors, who will have to hit the ground running.

Meanwhile, Theresa May's decision to hold a

snap election just five weeks after Thursday's poll worries those

who'd like the local elections to take

I think there is the danger with local elections as well

that the local elections inevitably get crowded out by a national

election, and I think we've seen a little bit of that.

It's not surprising, I mean, there's a huge

issues at stake with the national level,

but that doesn't negate the

The announcement of a general election, it feels like the two

elections almost blend into one and the local

large opinion poll for the general election, that's the danger.

With political forces across Wales now

preparing to do battle on two fronts, what do they make of the

I think it has a galvanising effect on Labour voters.

Labour voters who think that the Tories simply take

That they can call an unnecessary election, and election for which

there is no particular cause and then think

they can just take it for

I think if anything, it will probably energise people

to understand that democracy at any level, especially local government

level, is equally important as to who runs your local services

So I think it's actually energising politicians and

I think it's a bit unfortunate, and of course, Theresa

May has her own plans about why she has called the election now.

But in Plaid Cymru, we are busily campaigning already

for the local elections and we are building on that.

And what about Ukip and the Liberal Democrats?

The general election could have been called

perhaps a month later, we would have avoided

some of this overlap, but

there you are, Theresa May has called a general election for now,

there are good reasons for doing it, I'm sure.

So let's just hope that people do bear in mind they are

voting on local issues when they go to the ballot box on the fourth.

In 2012, when the Liberal Democrats had a

very bad result here, it's because we were in

People voted against us because of that, not

because of what we were doing locally, so people will vote

on national issues, but people will also vote

It is my job as a politician and a local politician to go out

there and persuade people that they have

to vote for the right reasons in the right election.

Another question that's been raised is, what impact

could the general election have on the number

of people who bother to

Some have suggested voter fatigue may have already set

in and turnout could be lower than usual.

It was around 39% for the local elections five years ago.

It might galvanise a slightly higher turnout.

There is a spirit of discussion abroad at the moment.

Hopefully people will turn out and they will make a commitment

to vote in the local elections because, at

the end of the day, this affects you as much

And so for the fourth time in two years, Welsh voters head to

Dr James Downe from Cardiff University is an expert

You would be our Obi our council elections. We will stop that now.

There is this danger that the local elections could be overshadowed by

the general election. Is that something you go with? There's a

danger here, local elections don't have a high profile, the do have a

general election four weeks later can need the media focus the

attention on national issues, so it is difficult for local parties to

continue to get the message out that local matters matter of these

elections. Could that also then affects the turnout for the

elections? Yes, turnout rates are bad, and a 40%, general election

turnout is 60, made 60%. People see local elections as being less

important than general elections. It can go two ways, turnout is likely

to go down, people talk about fatigue, lots of elections over the

last three years. But on the positive side, there's more

discussion generally. Hopefully that can have a positive effect and can

increase turnout, but I expect it to be lower locally. On the issues for

the election itself, we've seen the cuts to how much money councillors

can spend, we've heard Steve Thomas in the past saying, he doesn't know

why anybody would want to be a constant in this day and age because

it's such a tough job. Whoever is in power, they will have a tough job to

manage. Yes, they do. I feel sorry the councillors, if they do get

affected, because they've got a difficult job. You don't become a

counsellor to cut services, you want to improve them. The next five years

will be a difficult time local government. They've experienced

difficulties already. It's about making decisions to do things in

different ways, to outsource services will deliver them with the

public, so to co-produce services rather than deliver them to the

people. Are we seeing a different approach and how they go about it?

Is it too simplistic to say you can look at the Conservatives were back

at outsourcing, Labour, maybe the Lib Dems would look at co-operation

more. Is that too simplistic? I think it is. All parties come

whoever is in control, need to look outside the box and to do things in

different ways. It might be Labour outsourcing leisure services, you

may not expect them to do it. When you're forced to make cuts, they

have to be made. You need to find a way to deliver services, to keep

standards up, but did use different methods. Is there a job to convince

the public that you're not going to get all the services that you got

when all the money was around and that running things themselves can

actually enhanced community feeling? The public how I hate expectations,

too high. Over the two years, they've kept standards up at a

reasonable level across-the-board. The politicians need to manage the

public and say, we are facing difficult times. You have to

helpers. Whether that is taken over some libraries, for instant, or not

dropping litter. Will the public lesson? It's a tough sell, going

into a campaign saying, your council tax will go up, and by the way, you

won't get the same services. It's a tricky one. That is duality they

face because of the Kurds being delivered down from central

government. It is imported local politicians get the message out --

because of the cuts. Most importantly, we've got a stake in

these local elections, we are paying council tax ?1400 a year on average.

These elections are important. I don't care what way you build, but

participate. There has been a lot of talk in Wales about 22 councils,

they should merge, there's too many. The potential fight, which seems to

have gone away. Is the future of the merged justice voluntary cooperation

that they have to do according to the new Local Government Secretary?

Yes, there will be a new approach of councils working together in a

collaborative way will stop will that address the problems of not

enough money? Potentially, they will work together to help save some

money is by working on a regional basis. They are doing this on key

service areas so they can make a difference by working together on

education or transport. I guess that then raises the problem of

accountability. If three councils merged together on school services,

for example, and someone close as your local school, who do you hold

to account if three councils have come together? Absolutely, this is a

key area where the need to be more thought and discussion about the

accountability. We already have existing regional arrangements in

place, but is not quite clear whether politicians fit into those

arrangements in order to hold those bodies to account. You said more

needs to be looked at. Can you think of a way around that? You need to be

sure that in any arrangements on a regional bases, local politicians

play a role in those bodies. So, on a proportional basis, you talk about

a regional structure, you need councillors to work together, to

make sure the key decision makers are held to account for key

decisions that are taken with a lot of public money. Quickly, why are

these elections so important? I also think local elections are incredibly

important, and fortunately most of the public don't agree. We are

talking about lots of money, so it is important, go out and vote. Great

message to end on. That's it for this week,

but don't forget our overnight coverage of the local election

results, as they come in, We have the local elections, Metro

elections in Liverpool, greater Birmingham, West Midlands, how will

they play into the general election? Significantly, it is very unusual.

People keep comparing this with the election in 83, not! Margaret

Thatcher was nervous and to wait until after the local elections to

call the election to see the result. We are getting these result in the

middle of an election campaign so it will be important, whoever does

badly will suffer a dent in confidence in terms of how they

approach the election and we are also going to have mayoral figures

as a reminder of another big difference with the 80s that however

big, say, the Conservatives win in Westminster, there are now sectors

of power in other parts of the United Kingdom which were not there

in the 80s. One of the reasons niches that are rated in 83 was

memories were still alive in political circles of 1970, Wilson

saw the local election results and thought, I can win, he was told he

would win by the Economist magazine, who had done the analysis, and of

course he lost, so that is why she waited, Mrs May does not need to

wait for that at all now, and on the Metro elections, the one she will be

looking at is the West Midlands, that is the one that is a

competition. I think she can really lose on Thursday in the local

elections, governing parties are supposed to take effect again,

losing lots of council seats. She is projected to put on 100 or so seats,

Labour projected to lose around 200, the first time the main opposition

party has shed seats since something like 83 so clearly the local

elections give Mrs May great momentum going into the general

election campaign but there is a downside in that, which is what we

have already heard fighting about this morning, if it looks like it is

going too well for the Tories, it says to voters, why bother turning

up? Sushi comes up with totally unbelievable sound bites this

morning that this is the most important general election in her

lifetime. Really?! For her it is! It always is until the next one! I

wonder if voter turnout is a problem? Tory voters are more likely

to vote than Labour voters. If there is a sense that it is all over bar

the shouting, the overall turnout will be low that Tory voters are

still likely to turn out more than Labour voters so she would still win

some. I don't think she needs to be too worried, I think there will be a

significantly low turnout, even I am finding it hard to be that excited

about this general election. Really, the policies, we have spent a lot of

time talking about them today and we have to examine them, but all this

is about is, do you want Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten?

Those are the only question is, apart from possibly how strong do

you feel about Brexit, that will be on the voters' minds. You may say

that but I will not be put off from going through a list of policies

that we have already had in the last 24 hours. On the Conservatives, more

powers to stop company bosses under pensions, of course Philip Green was

in mind there. Labour has come up with quite a few policies, actually,

give all work of equal rights, whether part-time or full-time,

temporary or permanent. Ukip, scrap VAT or takeaway -- on takeaway food

and end the BBC licence fee. The Liberal Democrats have come out

posed to the runway at Heathrow. I thought I knew that already? Will

any of these policies make a difference? They are all nice handy

things that people quite liked but probably not, is the answer. They

are an awful way away from polling day now for people to remember and

latch onto. I don't think you make your mind up on small issues like

Heathrow, unless you live in Richmond-upon-Thames, maybe, but the

problem Labour have got with unfailing a lot of these retail type

policies which, in themselves, are very popular, is no one will listen

to them until they get over the leadership credibility issue. Jeremy

Corbyn could the world on a stick, but if no one believes he can

deliver it then he will not be listened to and he has not done much

apart from a speech yesterday in which is claim to fame was getting

arrested, I don't see how that would work for him getting to Number Ten.

They are not making progress on it. Labour has rolled out a number of

policies which, taken individually, would have certain traction in

normal times, quite interesting ideas, this sense of unfairness, a

feeling that ordinary workers have not done well out of the recovery,

those who caused the crash have, 20 points, I went through some of them

earlier, putting aside they are not costed, we are assured they will be.

The problem I suggest is not the costing but the cut through? Every

election has a context which is determined by opinion polls, however

sceptical we are these days, and if one party is way ahead it is

difficult for the other party to appear relevant, because if people

assume they are not going to win, even some of its own MPs are saying,

we are not going to win this, so you can vote for us, it is very hard to

get attention and relevance. Where I think all the parties are bad with

their current leaders is framing arguments, so those policies you

have highlighted makes sense. The best leaders are brilliant framers

of an argument and neither Theresa Maynor Jeremy Corbyn R. They have

been campaigning, their manifestos are not out yet, both sides have

been telling us we have to wait for costings, but it has not stopped

them campaigning. Let's remind you of where they have been and what

they have been doing so far. Let's start with Jeremy Corbyn, his

first official visit was in the ultra-marginal Conservative seat of

Croydon Central where the MP Gavin Barwell has a lead of just 165. That

is not the only Conservative seat he has visited, along the way he popped

in on Bristol North West, a Conservative majority of nearly

5000. The Tory seat of Cardiff North, a lead of just over 2000,

Warrington South, just over 2700, and Crewe and Nantwich, Tory

majority of three and a half thousand. Yesterday he visited

Bethnal greed and Bob, a Labour lead of 20 4000. Theresa May kicked off

her campaign in Bolton, Labour majority of over 4000. On her way

round the UK she had a comfy stop in her own maidenhead seat, where she

is defending a majority of nearly 30,000, before travelling to other

Labour marginals including Dudley North, a Labour lead of 4000.

Bridgend, a lead of just under 2004 Labour, before becoming ambitious

and visiting shadow minister Richard Bergen's Leeds East seat, which he

won by over 12,500 votes. Yesterday she went north of the border to

Aberdeenshire, where amongst other places she visited the SNP seat of

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, where the Tories would have to gain

over 7000 votes to unseat the NP. What do you make of it all so far?

It is remarkable she is doing these visits in Scotland. Past but even

five years and the idea of a Tory Prime Minister going round Scotland

would be utterly counter-productive, and actually they are ambitious for

Scotland now under with Davidson, a prospect of multiple seats, and that

would be a real genuine shift in Scottish politics, the likes of

which we have not seen for 15 or 20 years. If she gets that, that helps

towards 100 seats, because if she wins ten in Scotland, it is

effectively 20, the SNP lose ten, she gains ten, she wants to do that

in the Midlands with Labour, and the North. To get the 100 majority,

other than Scotland, she has to win Labour seats, that is all that is

there. And clearly she has been told, it is obvious, that she has a

chance of doing so, otherwise you don't go to these parts of the

country in the first few days of the campaign. All logic points to her

being able to pull it off as well. The opinion polls, the state of the

Labour Party. The only qualification I have in this is that politics is

so wild and free Braille at the moment, it doesn't feel like

landslide to rain. That is true, it doesn't. It is early days, we

haven't yet had the manifestos, the campaign is yet to gather momentum.

It doesn't feel like landslide territory. I disagree, look at every

single poll, the Tory lead is 10% in Wales, you can see her picking up 20

seat there. Put this together, I am told by the way she is going into

traditional Labour heartland again tomorrow, the key is the Ukip vote.

That will implode... Crumble towards Tories? If she can hoover that up

and retain the Tory vote, she will have a majority of 150.

I cannot let you go without reminding you that it is Donald

Trump's 100 days. He's not making a lot of it now, this is what he said

last night. We are just beginning in our fight

to make America great again. exciting and very productive,

100 days, which has been very exciting and very productive,

let's rate the media's 100 days. Because, as you know,

they are a disgrace. There you go, still bashing the

media, that was at a rally in Virginia, the 100 days was last

night. He seems happier campaigning than running the country. You each

have 20 seconds to give me your board on the first 100 days.

Remarkable, he will not stop slagging off the media but America

first has not meant America first in terms of national policy, he has

reneges on what he said about Nato being obsolete. He is moving from

the old right to the centre because that is where you get things done,

he is a pragmatist, also is about's friend Nigel Parrott is no longer

welcome, we read this morning! Allegedly! He loves campaigning but

finds governing much more difficult. Who would have thought being

president of the United States was a difficult job?! He loves rallies but

being president and politics is a very difficult thing indeed. Thank

you, there we go, Mr Trump's 100 days, we will see what the next 100

brings. The Daily Politics is back

on BBC Two after the bank holiday on Tuesday at midday,

with all the latest And I'll be back here

on BBC One next Sunday Remember - if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics.