Browse content similar to 11/06/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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But stay with us for more drama as we can now go straight | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
We are indeed in the sunshine. Welcome from the heart of | :00:00. | :00:12. | |
Westminster. Theresa May reappointing key figures | :00:13. | :00:26. | |
to the Cabinet, sacking had to closest aides, Nick Timothy and | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
Fiona Hill. After Conservative MPs demanded their removal in the | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
Conservative failure to win an overall majority in the House of | :00:36. | :00:37. | |
Commons. Over the next hour and a bit we'll continue to take stock on | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
the remarkable events of the last 72 hours and try to work out where we | :00:43. | :00:43. | |
go from here. First though, here's Adam Fleming | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
with a reminder of the high octane I was going to say this | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
chair is quite warm. Michael Fallon's bum | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
was on this chair. Bums on seats, its election | :00:57. | :01:04. | |
night at the BBC, hosted This is David Dimbleby's | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
actual seat! Look, he's got four pencils, | :01:07. | :01:11. | |
stopwatch and a calculator. And what we are saying | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
is the Conservatives Note, they don't have an overall | :01:17. | :01:23. | |
majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives, | :01:24. | :01:31. | |
that's down 17. Luckily there were plenty | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
of politicians who never are. What does this exit | :01:34. | :01:43. | |
poll actually mean? Well, if it's accurate it means | :01:44. | :01:50. | |
Theresa May has just presided over the greatest catastrophe that I can | :01:51. | :01:52. | |
think of in the Conservative We haven't seen a seat change hands | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
and we are hearing about possible Conservative gains in the Midlands | :01:56. | :02:02. | |
and losses in London, People will write Ph.D.s about the | :02:03. | :02:04. | |
2017 election Labour candidates were winning | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
in unexpected places. Tories were losing in unexpected | :02:11. | :02:16. | |
places, including eight members of the Government, | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
like Treasury minister The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, | :02:21. | :02:22. | |
held on in Hastings...just. OK, the former Deputy Prime Minister | :02:23. | :02:30. | |
and former leader of the Liberal Democrats, | :02:31. | :02:32. | |
Nick Clegg, has been beaten I've always sought to stand | :02:33. | :02:34. | |
by the liberal values I believe in, but I, of course, have encountered | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
this evening something many people have encountered before tonight, | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
and I suspect many people will encounter after tonight, | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
which is - in politics you live by the sword, and you | :02:49. | :02:51. | |
die by the sword. Lib Dem leader Tim Farron | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
was narrowly re-elected in Cumbria, unlike the SNP's Westminster | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
leader Angus Robertson, who lost his seat, former First | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
Minister Alex Salmond defeated too. The Scottish National Party have | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
lost many fine parliamentarians this evening, and that is a grievous blow | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
to the SNP. But overall the results in Scotland | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
show the SNP will have won a majority of the seats in this | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
country and a majority of the vote. Paul Nuttall failed to get | :03:21. | :03:23. | |
elected in Skegness So, the green room looking a bit | :03:24. | :03:30. | |
ruined, a bit like Ukip I think we are doing | :03:31. | :03:37. | |
better than the SNP. I think it's quite interesting | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
the main leading Brexit candidates in this election | :03:42. | :03:52. | |
are getting their seat back. Right, it's dawn in the real world | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
and I found a pub that has been open What state are they going | :03:57. | :04:17. | |
to be in, in there? And was it young people | :04:18. | :04:24. | |
who had seen Corbyn, voted, and got the T-shirt who helped | :04:25. | :04:27. | |
the Labour leader to Right, five past five | :04:28. | :04:29. | |
in the morning, we are outside Jeremy Corbyn's house in Islington | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
in north London. Surprisingly small press pack | :04:35. | :04:37. | |
for the man who's destroyed Jeremy! | :04:38. | :04:39. | |
Jeremy! If there is a message from | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
tonight's result, it's this - the Prime Minister called | :04:43. | :04:49. | |
the election because Well, the mandate she's got is lost | :04:50. | :04:51. | |
Conservative seats, lost votes, I would have thought that's enough | :04:52. | :04:59. | |
to go actually and make way for a government that will be truly | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
representative of all Theresa May did the opposite, | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
popping to the palace, What the country needs more | :05:10. | :05:16. | |
than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest | :05:17. | :05:23. | |
number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
election, it is clear that only the Conservatives and Unionist Party | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
have the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
by commanding a majority As we do, we will continue to work | :05:37. | :05:38. | |
with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party | :05:39. | :05:46. | |
in particular. 15 hours after election night | :05:47. | :05:52. | |
started, it's all over. And joined by Tom Newton Dunn, Julia | :05:53. | :06:24. | |
Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards. Julia, why did it go so wrong for | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
the Conservatives? You can't run a presidential campaign if you have a | :06:30. | :06:32. | |
candidate with less than the charisma of this desk. If you're not | :06:33. | :06:37. | |
going to put her out to debate, if she's not coming to the people and | :06:38. | :06:40. | |
selling herself, which she studiously didn't do, you can't run | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
that campaign. There was the possibility another leader could | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
have walked that with 800 majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Another | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
campaign, we will never know, could have delivered a majority of 30 or | :06:52. | :06:59. | |
40, without the deal with the DUP. I'm not saying it was fundamentally | :07:00. | :07:07. | |
wrong to call the election at this time, but it was the wrong candidate | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
and the wrong campaign. The third election in a row that Labour has | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
failed to win. It was still a substantial and historic achievement | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
for Jeremy Corbyn. If you consider the context in which this election | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
was called, Theresa May, on her honeymoon to die for, politically, | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
with Labour voters split over Brexit, suddenly calling an election | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
when most Labour MPs were not willing to cooperate with whatever | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
campaign was being held by Labour, for them to do as well as they have | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
done is an extraordinary achievement. They got no more seats | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
than Gordon Brown in 2010, roughly the same. But the context couldn't | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
have been more daunting, and to wipe out a majority of this figure, who | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
six weeks ago was walking on water and appeared to have Brexit as part | :07:57. | :08:02. | |
of her ammunition against the split Labour vote, remains astonishing. | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
One of the errors she made and so many others she made and probably | :08:06. | :08:15. | |
all of us, was to underestimate the potency of Corbyn and the relatively | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
modest social Democrat manifesto. Doesn't it take stupidity bordering | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
on genius to turn a 20 point lead at the start of the campaign into a | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
hung parliament? It does and it did. That's what happened. I think the | :08:29. | :08:33. | |
lead was soft, largely because Theresa May was unknown. We know her | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
because we have been having lunch and interviews with her for years on | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
end. The public didn't know her. They got to know her and they | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
discovered she was the Maybot, which is the term that will stick after | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
this campaign. I differ from my two colleagues here, it wasn't the | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
amazing right of Corbyn, it was a complete failure to remember that | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
people wanted a revolution when they voted for Brexit, and she came | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
across as the party and candidate of continuity. As things stand, we are | :09:05. | :09:12. | |
where we are. Where are we?! Where do we go from here? I was with | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
College Green with you in the early hours of Friday morning and I didn't | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
see anybody that said, see you back here in October. A second election? | :09:21. | :09:27. | |
God forbid, nobody wants a second election, but I can't see the Tories | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
being able to stay in power with the DUP and I'm personally very unhappy | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
with a lot of DUP policies, their stance on gay rights, capital | :09:38. | :09:40. | |
punishment, abortion rights, and there will be an awful lot of | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
people, floating voters, who will recoil in horror at that, even on | :09:44. | :09:49. | |
unofficial lines. I get the sense Jeremy Corbyn will be up for a | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
second election, as quick as it comes. I'm sure he is, and if there | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
was one company might well win it, which is why there won't be. All | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
logic points to another election but I don't think there will be one, | :10:02. | :10:04. | |
because I don't think any Conservative Prime Minister will | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
feel strong and confident enough after the trauma of this. They would | :10:11. | :10:13. | |
have to be 50 points ahead in the polls to take the risk. I think | :10:14. | :10:19. | |
rather like between 74 and 79 we will have a frail and fragile House | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
of Commons with a minority government for quite a long time, | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
simply because whoever is Prime Minister will not have the | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
confidence to call an election. So the Tories fear of a quick second | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
election could well result in them going more leniently on Mrs May than | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
they really want to. We have seen already, Miss Mrs May is still Prime | :10:38. | :10:45. | |
Minister. That wouldn't have happened by now if they thought they | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
could win a second snap election. I think they will stabilise. They are | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
also desperate to get Brexit negotiations underway. That's | :10:56. | :10:57. | |
another reason she is still there. She is the one who needs to pull the | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
trigger. Most of the Tory party are aching to have the trigger pulled. | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
When that is bold, when I have stabilised, and when Jeremy Corbyn | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
is back the House of Commons, where remember he's not very good, I think | :11:10. | :11:15. | |
they might your right. Lots more to talk about. Thank you for being with | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
me in the open air, the Westminster penthouse, open to the world. I just | :11:21. | :11:23. | |
need to find the cocktail bar. Although it is early. | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
So, let's take a look at the election results | :11:27. | :11:28. | |
Here's how the parties fared in the election on Thursday. | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
And here's how they got on in the previous general | :11:33. | :11:34. | |
As you can see, the Labour vote is up dramatically, by ten points. | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
But the Conservative vote also rose quite significantly, by five points. | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
The SNP and the Liberal Democrats both saw declines in their support. | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
And Ukip's vote has almost completely collapsed, | :11:45. | :11:45. | |
from 13% in 2015 to just 2% this time around. | :11:46. | :11:48. | |
So the resurgence of two-party politics is one of the key | :11:49. | :11:57. | |
The combined vote share of the two main parties is now 82%, | :11:58. | :12:06. | |
the highest it's been since the election in 1970. | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
And it's more if you exclude Northern Ireland. | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
That's partly explained by the collapse of Ukip. | :12:17. | :12:18. | |
According to one estimate, the Conservatives may have got 57% | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
It's also thought that last year's EU referendum has helped to polarise | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
support along the traditional Labour and Conservative lines. | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
In polls carried out before the election, | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
it was estimated that 50% of remain voters supported Labour and nearly | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
two-thirds of leave voters supported the Conservatives. | :12:41. | :12:42. | |
There's also speculation that a rise in the number of young voters may be | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
behind the boost in Labour's support - but we don't yet have | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
But it's notable that Labour did well in certain constituencies | :12:52. | :13:01. | |
For example, it's thought that the large number of students | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
in Canterbury helped Labour win the seat for the first time | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
ever, with a 9% swing from the Conservatives. | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
The two main parties have also seen changes in their number of seats. | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
Labour lost six seats but gained 36, giving them a net gain of 30 seats. | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
Most of those Labour gains were in England, | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
where the party took 27 seats, mainly from the Conservatives. | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
They also gained three seats in Wales and six | :13:29. | :13:30. | |
As for the Conservatives, they lost a total of 33 | :13:31. | :13:38. | |
seats but also gained 20, giving them a net loss of 13 seats. | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
Most of those 20 Conservative gains came in Scotland, | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
where the party took 12 seats from the SNP. | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
Meaning the Scottish Tories are allowing Mrs May to try to form | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
Meaning the Scottish Tories are government this week! Who would have | :13:59. | :13:59. | |
thought! In England, | :14:00. | :14:01. | |
the Conservatives won Joining me now from Glasgow | :14:02. | :14:03. | |
is the brains behind Thursday night's astoundingly accurate exit | :14:04. | :14:05. | |
poll, the polling expert And John, the Tories saw a 5-point | :14:06. | :14:23. | |
rise in the share of the votes to 42%, very high by recent historical | :14:24. | :14:30. | |
standards, but still lost over a dozen seats, why? Under our first | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
past the post electoral system, the share of the vote you get is almost | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
irrelevant. What is crucial is how you do relative to your opponents. | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
In particular so far as Conservative and Labour are concerned, what | :14:45. | :14:52. | |
determines the fate is the gap between them. In the 2015 election, | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
the Conservatives had a 7-point lead, that only got them a majority | :14:58. | :15:01. | |
of 12, and somebody should have said to the Prime Minister before she | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
pulled the trigger, you do realise you have to be a long way ahead of | :15:06. | :15:09. | |
the Labour Party in order to increase your majority. The opinion | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
polls say you are at that point now but if they fall you are in trouble. | :15:14. | :15:22. | |
In the end of the Conservative lead is 2.5 points, which is not enough | :15:23. | :15:25. | |
to secure a majority given that Northern Ireland is out of the | :15:26. | :15:31. | |
frame, Scotland still has a majority of third party MPs, and there are | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
still Liberal Democrats and greens. This now looks like a two party race | :15:39. | :15:46. | |
once again. We have still got much more in the House of Commons than in | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
1970 which makes a hung parliament much more likely. Meanwhile there | :15:52. | :15:57. | |
weren't that many marginal seats. It is the relative standing of the | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
parties that's crucial. And how do we explain the 10% rise in Labour's | :16:03. | :16:07. | |
share of the vote? There's a lot of anecdotal evidence of a youth Surge, | :16:08. | :16:13. | |
and I'd like to know if we can nail that down, but also the work of the | :16:14. | :16:21. | |
swings too. Some green voters moved into Labour, some Liberal Democrats, | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
even perhaps some Ukip voters moved into Labour, what do we know? I | :16:26. | :16:31. | |
think we can pick up three crucial patterns. The first is a lot of | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
people who at the beginning of the campaign said are usually vote | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
Labour but cannot imagine doing so under Jeremy Corbyn, he so hopeless. | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
Because of his relatively strong performance they came back into the | :16:45. | :16:47. | |
fold so by the time we got to polling day there was many 2015 | :16:48. | :16:57. | |
voters who said they would vote Labour again. That was the crucial | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
point, getting the faithful back on board. It is certainly clear there | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
was a substantial swing to young voters during the campaign. Labour | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
started off well in that group, the opinion polls had it around 65% by | :17:12. | :17:17. | |
the time the election came. We don't know exactly the turnout amongst | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
young people, but certainly the pattern of the results suggests the | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
turnout was going up more in places where there were young people so | :17:27. | :17:29. | |
probably somewhat more of them did turn out to vote. The third crucial | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
patent is that this was an election which to some degree voters did | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
polarise around the issue of the shape of Brexit, weather you are a | :17:41. | :17:51. | |
Remain or Leave voter. Labour's progress during the campaign was | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
disproportionately amongst Remain voters so although the parties were | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
not thought to be that far apart on the shape of Brexit, they seem to be | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
sufficiently far apart that Labour was more attractive for those less | :18:06. | :18:07. | |
keen on the kind of Brexit Theresa was more attractive for those less | :18:08. | :18:15. | |
May had in mind. John Curtice, thank you as always. We are now going | :18:16. | :18:17. | |
May had in mind. John Curtice, thank Salford. Graham Brady, you think Mrs | :18:18. | :18:29. | |
May should soldier on, why? There's no other party in a position to form | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
a government. Clearly these aren't the circumstances that either the | :18:36. | :18:42. | |
Prime Minister nor I nor my colleagues would want to be dealing | :18:43. | :18:45. | |
with at the moment but this is what we are presented with and it's our | :18:46. | :18:49. | |
duty to make the best of it and try to offer government as resilient as | :18:50. | :18:56. | |
it can be an quite difficult times. But is she ever going to be more | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
than a caretaker leader now? I think one of the odd things about the | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
experience of the last 12 months is Theresa May performed well as Prime | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
Minister and the public rather liked her as Prime Minister. I think few | :19:11. | :19:14. | |
people would say the campaign succeeded in projecting her | :19:15. | :19:17. | |
qualities as strongly as it could and should have done. As we return | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
to government, albeit in difficult circumstances and dependent on | :19:24. | :19:26. | |
support from other parties, I think we will see people once again seeing | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
the steady, calm, thoughtful Theresa May as Prime Minister. Do you fear a | :19:33. | :19:38. | |
leadership election might lead to a second general election, and that | :19:39. | :19:44. | |
prospect terrifies you, doesn't it? I'm not sitting here terrified, but | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
I think there is zero appetite amongst the public for another | :19:50. | :19:52. | |
general election at the moment, and I don't detect any great appetite | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
amongst my colleagues for presenting the public with a massive additional | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
dose of uncertainty by getting involved in a rather self-indulgent | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
Conservative Party internal election campaign. That's because they are | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
frightened they might lose, that's why they don't want another one. I | :20:11. | :20:19. | |
think most of us are motivated by a belief in the national interest and | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
we are responsible people who want to try to offer that responsible, | :20:23. | :20:25. | |
steady government, especially at this point as we know it's just a | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
matter of days until those important negotiations on leaving the European | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
Union begins. It's a time when we need experience and | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
Union begins. It's a time when we it's our duty to try to offer that. | :20:39. | :20:45. | |
Many Tories have said to me that Mrs May must never be allowed to leave | :20:46. | :20:48. | |
your party into another general election, do you agree with that? | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
No, these are judgments that will be made in the fullness of time by the | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
Prime Minister and by colleagues, as is always the case with any Prime | :20:59. | :21:02. | |
Minister and leader of the party, but at the moment we are resolutely | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
focused on trying to make sure the country can have the responsible | :21:07. | :21:08. | |
study government that it really needs at this point, and that should | :21:09. | :21:20. | |
be our focus too. In what way should Mrs May change? I think there are | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
all sorts of lessons we can pick up from the campaign and the reaction | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
to it, even from the thing that surprised most of us, the way in | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
which Jeremy Corbyn, in spite of all of his manifest failings, in | :21:35. | :21:37. | |
particular his extreme political views, was able to present himself | :21:38. | :21:43. | |
in a rather avuncular way. I didn't ask about Mr Corbyn. I'm saying I | :21:44. | :21:50. | |
think there are some lessons there, in terms of relaxing little bit into | :21:51. | :21:55. | |
communicating with the electorate. It is something she does very well | :21:56. | :22:02. | |
in person, increasingly so since she became Prime Minister. That's not | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
the experience of the campaign, the more people saw her the more they | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
didn't like the colour of her gym. It didn't communicating the | :22:11. | :22:16. | |
campaign, but also I think we need to see a much more open and | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
inclusive approach within government, within Parliament as | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
well. That's not just a kind of desirable outcome, which I think | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
always would have been desirable and I've had this conversation with | :22:31. | :22:36. | |
previous prime ministers as well. It's a necessity in the | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
circumstances, trying to make a hung parliament and minority government | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
work really requires a much more inclusive approach. You are being | :22:45. | :22:51. | |
brought into the decision taking process on the deal being done with | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
the DUP? I have said to the Prime Minister I think it is important she | :22:57. | :22:59. | |
speaks to colleagues as soon as possible. I'm hoping to bring it | :23:00. | :23:06. | |
forward to tomorrow so she can talk... But are you being involved | :23:07. | :23:13. | |
in this more inclusive process? I am not on a negotiating team but I saw | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
the Prime Minister very early after the election had taken place, I went | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
to London on Friday afternoon and met with her and we had a discussion | :23:23. | :23:25. | |
about all sorts of things that need to be addressed over the coming days | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
and weeks. When Mrs May spoke in Downing Street after she'd gone to | :23:32. | :23:35. | |
see the Queen, it was another robotic performance. It didn't even | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
express any regrets for the Tories that had lost. You had to into being | :23:40. | :23:46. | |
to get her to make a second statement, didn't you? No, she was | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
already going to give the interview she gave. You urged her to do so. | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
She was already scheduled to give the interview. I happen to see her | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
in between the statement and interview, and I was keen to press | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
home that in the past Conservative Party that has been very poor in its | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
communications with colleagues who have lost their seats in the general | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
election, that is something none of my colleagues likes to see so I | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
certainly did say that I think it's important we do better this time. | :24:18. | :24:21. | |
What bits of the manifesto will you now have to jumk for the Queen 's | :24:22. | :24:31. | |
speech? That will be an interesting process to witness. I don't think it | :24:32. | :24:34. | |
will just be the Queen 's speech, it will be the whole experience of | :24:35. | :24:41. | |
government. There's no point in sailing ahead with items that were | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
in the manifesto which we won't get through Parliament so I think we | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
will have to work very carefully. No doubt we will slim down the Queen's | :24:53. | :25:00. | |
speech. So tell me, which bits will you have to junk? Back to the triple | :25:01. | :25:08. | |
lock on pensioners and no grammar schools? How about that? I would be | :25:09. | :25:14. | |
upset if we couldn't make any progress on allowing people to have | :25:15. | :25:16. | |
a choice of grammar schools if they wanted. Are you hoping they will | :25:17. | :25:25. | |
drop it? If we cannot get things through Parliament, we cannot do | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
them so I certainly would suggest that we can look for instance at a | :25:30. | :25:34. | |
rather modest sort of pilots, opening some state grammar schools | :25:35. | :25:38. | |
in inner urban areas, especially where education at the moment is not | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
offering great opportunities to people of lower income backgrounds. | :25:43. | :25:46. | |
I think that is something that could command quite broad support. I have | :25:47. | :25:52. | |
heard from friends on the Labour ventures quietly that they would | :25:53. | :25:56. | |
like that approach to be taken. We will certainly have to trim our | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
policies carefully according to what we think Parliament will support. | :26:01. | :26:05. | |
Graham Brady in Salford, thank you. Let's go to Nottingham where I am | :26:06. | :26:12. | |
joined by Anna Soubry. In the early hours of Thursday morning you called | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
on Theresa May to consider her position. Is that still your view? | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
Yes, she obviously has considered her position and she is set to go in | :26:22. | :26:28. | |
due course, but I very much agree with Graham, we don't want her to go | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
now. We want a period of stability and she has got to reach out and | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
form a consensus and she has got to form a consensus in particular on | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
Brexit. She has now got to make sure she understands that the British | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
people have rejected a hard Brexit. We are leaving the EU, I don't think | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
there's any change there but we are not going to be leaving the EU in | :26:54. | :26:57. | |
some irresponsible weights that will damage future generations in our | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
country and there's a big lesson to be learned as you've already | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
identified in your programme, about younger people and the message they | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
have sent out in this election. I will come onto Brexit in the moment, | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
but you have said she is set to go in due course, what does that mean? | :27:14. | :27:21. | |
I don't know. After the summer, before the end of the year? I would | :27:22. | :27:30. | |
have thought so. She is flawed, she's in a desperate situation. Her | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
position is untenable and I think she knows that and she is doing the | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
right thing, which is she's got rid of these special advisers, she's | :27:39. | :27:42. | |
brought in Gavin Barwell, and she's listening to people from all parts | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
of not just the party but the country. She has got to reach out | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
more and broaden the base within her Cabinet, and she's got to include | :27:52. | :27:55. | |
people from all parts of my party as well as all points of view across | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
Parliament. So what impact in your view will, as you describe it, Mrs | :28:01. | :28:06. | |
May's much more weakened position, what impact will that have on her | :28:07. | :28:11. | |
current Brexit stance? Will she have to change it and water it down? Yes, | :28:12. | :28:19. | |
absolutely. The country did not vote for a hard Brexit. This is based on | :28:20. | :28:23. | |
my experience of having knocked on the literally thousands of dollars, | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
actually since February. I have listened to a lot of people, and the | :28:29. | :28:37. | |
idea of a hard Brexit, people didn't like that. It's one of the reasons | :28:38. | :28:43. | |
we haven't won this election. They accept we are leaving, I accept it, | :28:44. | :28:46. | |
but we want to get the best deal and she must not turn her back on | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
British business as I'm afraid she has. She's got to listen to British | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
business and Philip Hammond, she's got to listen to Greg Clark. Wise | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
owls who know what British business once and they want that single | :29:00. | :29:05. | |
market and they also wanted proper immigration policy that recognises | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
we need immigrants and free movement in order for British business to | :29:10. | :29:10. | |
continue to flourish. She has to at least listen to these | :29:11. | :29:21. | |
things, and she hasn't in the past. Is that what Ruth Davidson, leader | :29:22. | :29:25. | |
of the Scottish Conservatives, about the only Conservative to emerge with | :29:26. | :29:32. | |
credit on Thursday, is that what she means? We should remain members of | :29:33. | :29:35. | |
the single market, remain in the customs union and put the economy | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
before immigration. Is that what you are talking about? Absolutely. And I | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
always have. And in my literature I made it very clear I would continue | :29:46. | :29:49. | |
to make the case for the single market and positive benefits of | :29:50. | :29:53. | |
immigration. Although my majority was reduced, I put on 1800 more | :29:54. | :29:59. | |
votes. It's not about me, obviously, it's about me being a Conservative, | :30:00. | :30:04. | |
but I made my position clear and I have not faulted on that. Turning | :30:05. | :30:07. | |
our back on the customs union in particular is the stuff of madness. | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
The single market sees off the Nationalists and their desire for a | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
second referendum, although the mighty Ruth Davidson is already done | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
that with her remarkable result in Scotland, but it would also solve | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
the problem with Ireland. Don't you risk reopening all those Tory | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
divisions over Europe on this? I haven't. You have held these views | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
for a long time. There are 20 of other, probably more Tories, who | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
want what you call a hard Brexit. -- plenty of other. It's what the | :30:42. | :30:47. | |
people want. But you don't have a majority. At this election the | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
people have spoken and they have rejected the hard Brexit. I think we | :30:53. | :30:55. | |
can all agree on that. That doesn't mean to say we are not leaving the | :30:56. | :31:01. | |
EU, we will leave the EU, and I believe even people who voted to | :31:02. | :31:07. | |
remain accept we are leaving. I found very few angry Remainers on | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
the doorsteps. People accept the result, but they do not want a hard | :31:13. | :31:16. | |
Brexit. That's the message coming out from this and I hope Theresa May | :31:17. | :31:21. | |
gets that. If she does, then she has to build the con census. There's | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
nothing to stop her working with sensible people in the Labour Party, | :31:28. | :31:30. | |
who also accept the referendum result, no we will be leaving the | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
EU, and know we have to get the best deal, and we can't close our minds | :31:36. | :31:39. | |
on the single market and Customs union. What are the bits of the Tory | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
manifesto you will now have to drop to keep your new bedfellows happy in | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
the DUP? I don't think we have reached a deal yet with the DUP. But | :31:49. | :31:54. | |
that is the aim. Apparently it's the aim. I will tell you now, Andrew, | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
you probably know far more than I do. I get on well with a number of | :31:59. | :32:06. | |
members of the DUP. I don't like a lot of their policies on abortion, | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
gay and lesbian issues, I completely disagree with them, but if we can | :32:12. | :32:16. | |
put those issues aside and put the focus on making a stable government | :32:17. | :32:19. | |
and putting the national interest first, we might well make strides | :32:20. | :32:29. | |
forward. Many people have been talking about public services and | :32:30. | :32:36. | |
public sector pay, but we have to do recognise that at the same time we | :32:37. | :32:39. | |
are going into choppy economic waters, and that's why I think it's | :32:40. | :32:44. | |
so important Theresa May listens to Philip Hammond and puts him much | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
more at the core and front of this government. It's the economy that | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
matters more than anything else. That's one of the spectacular | :32:54. | :32:57. | |
failings of the campaign. The issue that was hardly mentioned during the | :32:58. | :33:01. | |
campaign. Never mentioned it. Anna Soubry, we will leave it there. | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
After Theresa May had been to see the Queen at Buckingham Palace on | :33:07. | :33:09. | |
Friday she made a brief statement on Friday. We can remind ourselves what | :33:10. | :33:11. | |
she said. We will continue to work | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party | :33:16. | :33:17. | |
in particular. Our two parties have enjoyed | :33:18. | :33:19. | |
a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me | :33:20. | :33:21. | |
the confidence to believe that we will be able to work | :33:22. | :33:23. | |
together in the interests This will allow us to come | :33:24. | :33:26. | |
together as a country and channel our energies | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
towards a successful Brexit deal that works | :33:31. | :33:35. | |
for everyone in this country. Securing a new partnership | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
with the EU that guarantees our That's what people voted for last | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
June, that's what we will deliver. I've been joined by | :33:44. | :33:48. | |
the Conservative MP Dominic Raab - a former government minister who's | :33:49. | :34:02. | |
been tipped for a return in Theresa We shall see. Welcome to the | :34:03. | :34:13. | |
programme. Her two most senior advisers have fallen on their | :34:14. | :34:16. | |
swords. Most of the Cabinet has gone to ground since the result. Could | :34:17. | :34:21. | |
Theresa May be any more isolated? I don't think that's true. You have | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
three Cabinet ministers doing television this morning. We are in | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
the middle of a reshuffle, so you wouldn't expect them all to be out | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
on the airwaves, and we also in the business of hammering out the detail | :34:32. | :34:34. | |
on the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. Where are | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
we on that? On the question of Chief of staff, a new appointment has been | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
made, Gavin Barwell, I know him well, a smart policy guide and also | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
very sensitive on the political radar and that shows we are moving | :34:50. | :34:54. | |
forward. It was forced on her. I think they did the honourable thing. | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
The two aids that fell on their sword? Yes. The key point is, | :34:59. | :35:06. | |
looking forward, which we have to do, we had the outcome of the | :35:07. | :35:09. | |
election and the people have spoken and we have to make the best of it. | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
Gavin Barwell is an important appointment. Conservative MPs | :35:16. | :35:19. | |
across-the-board know, respect and trust him. Nobody in the country has | :35:20. | :35:22. | |
heard of him, but maybe that doesn't matter. How many had heard of Nick | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
Timothy and Fiona Hill before they were appointed? They do now. Do you | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
agree with Anna Soubry that Theresa May is no more than a caretaker | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
Prime Minister now? I don't. Emotions are way up. But we still | :35:36. | :35:43. | |
won the most votes and most seats. My reading from talking to MPs | :35:44. | :35:48. | |
across-the-board is the overwhelming majority want to see Theresa May | :35:49. | :35:52. | |
continue in office. As a matter of necessity, the people have spoken, | :35:53. | :35:55. | |
and we have to respect what the people have decided, so we will do | :35:56. | :35:59. | |
this supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. There are | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
strong areas of overlap but we don't agree on everything. The key thing | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
is to give the country certainty and direction moving forward. That's the | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
only viable option and people are rallying behind that. Not all. | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
George Osborne said this morning on the BBC that Mrs May was a dead | :36:14. | :36:21. | |
woman walking. He has made the transition from Conservative MP to | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
mischievous journalist with ease. Most MPs when they listen to that | :36:27. | :36:31. | |
will think it's disloyal, unprofessional and frankly pretty | :36:32. | :36:33. | |
self-indulgent. In reality I think it will shore up support among a lot | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
of MPs for Theresa May. What went wrong? I'm not going to candy coat, | :36:38. | :36:44. | |
sugar-coat the result here. We did far worse than expected and we need | :36:45. | :36:50. | |
to figure out the lessons to learn. I know it went wrong, but why? There | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
isn't anyone thing. You have to take time to learn the lessons. We need | :36:57. | :36:59. | |
to show some humility about the result. Nick Timothy has written a | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
column that touches on some of the issues from his perspective. To be | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
honest with you, I'm focused now, I missed all the drama and | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
disappointment of not getting the result we wanted, focus on the | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
facts. We got 56 more seats than the Labour Party and we are the only | :37:16. | :37:18. | |
ones who can put together a legitimate parliament that can also | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
be affected, passing a judgment and pass legislation, however tricky it | :37:23. | :37:26. | |
may be. That remains to be seen, you might not be able to do that. We are | :37:27. | :37:31. | |
the only ones, with the DUP, who could form a viable and effective | :37:32. | :37:34. | |
government that would reflect legitimately the outcome of the | :37:35. | :37:41. | |
election and we will focus 100% on that. Let's do that. Mrs May | :37:42. | :37:43. | |
promised strength and stability. We now have a hung parliament and she | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
is dependent on the DUP for the slimmest of majorities. There is | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
nothing strong and stable about that. I have said to you, I will not | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
tell you this result is the one we wanted. We are disappointed. It's | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
not strong and stable. It can still be effective. It's also the only | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
outcome that can respect and be legitimate of the outcome of the | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
election. At the end of the day, we had campaigning, we can differ on | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
the opinions, but the facts and parliamentary arithmetic is there. | :38:14. | :38:16. | |
The only way we can have an effective government of any time | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
that Del Paso budget is the Conservatives with the support of | :38:20. | :38:24. | |
the DUP. To do that you'll have to make compromises you would not have | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
to do make if you had won a substantial majority. What part of | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
the manifesto will have to go to get a budget and a confidence motion | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
through? 48 hours after the election I can't answer that definitively. | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
What we do have to do, every MP, whatever part of the country they | :38:41. | :38:44. | |
were elected, has to deliver as best can be manifesto commitments. At the | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
same time, that's what the country expects. At the same time we had | :38:50. | :38:52. | |
forced on us the need to be flexible. The people didn't vote for | :38:53. | :38:56. | |
your manifesto in the end. Something has to go. The triple lock for | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
pensioners that you were going to change, the DUP is in favour of the | :39:01. | :39:04. | |
triple lock. Does that bit of the manifesto go? You can ask me any | :39:05. | :39:10. | |
aspect of the manifesto, we'll know more answers the detail next week. | :39:11. | :39:15. | |
You were on our programmes more than any Cabinet minister. You will be | :39:16. | :39:20. | |
drafted back in. You should know. I don't bet too much money on the | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
tittle tattle in the media. We have the outline of the supply and | :39:27. | :39:29. | |
confidence arrangement with the DUP. We are hammering out the details. | :39:30. | :39:33. | |
Next week we will publish the details. What about social care? You | :39:34. | :39:39. | |
asking me about different points in a manifesto but you know I can't | :39:40. | :39:43. | |
answer that question until... I want to deliver as much of the manifesto | :39:44. | :39:47. | |
as possible. You don't have a mandate to do that. That's because | :39:48. | :39:52. | |
we've got... The Queen's speech is only a week away, a week tomorrow. | :39:53. | :39:59. | |
You are trying to work out what parts, Labour lost, but you didn't | :40:00. | :40:03. | |
win, and I'm trying to work out how you just said we will have to | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
comprise and make changes. It's legitimate to ask which parts... I'm | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
explaining I don't have the answers on the detail because until we have | :40:12. | :40:14. | |
formed the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP, we will | :40:15. | :40:19. | |
not have those details. My starting point is that we deliver as much of | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
the manifesto as we conceivably can. That's what the country expects | :40:23. | :40:25. | |
because that's what they are elected us to do. They have given us their | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
verdict, we need to respect the outcome of the election and we will | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
not do it in the same way will as if we had a stonking majority, | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
obviously. The result has given a kind of new spring in the step of | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
politicians who wanted to remain in the European Union. What do you | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
make, and we heard Anna Soubry, and many others have said it as well, | :40:49. | :40:51. | |
that you need to reconsider your Brexit stands, and in their language | :40:52. | :40:57. | |
community soften your Brexit stands. Whether you are a Scottish, Welsh or | :40:58. | :41:01. | |
English MP, elected to Parliament behind me on the basis of a | :41:02. | :41:04. | |
manifesto that sets out in great detail, a 75 page white Paper, the | :41:05. | :41:10. | |
approach to Brexit. All this talk of hard Brexit, our ambition is to get | :41:11. | :41:14. | |
the best possible deal we can with our EU partners. Do you change your | :41:15. | :41:19. | |
stands because you didn't get a majority for your Brexit position. | :41:20. | :41:23. | |
Do you follow the advice of Ruth Davidson, who talked of an open | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
Brexit, framing a new Brexit strategy? Hard and soft Brexit, I | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
don't know exactly what Ruth means by that. But she did a great job in | :41:33. | :41:38. | |
Scotland. But every MP was elected on our manifesto. We will deliver | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
the plans of that manifesto as best we can, including and especially on | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
Brexit. Just a point of fact, obviously be Conservative number of | :41:47. | :41:52. | |
votes went up, Labour effectively... The vote share went up, but we lost | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
seats, but we are 56 seats ahead of the Labour Party. The Labour Party | :41:58. | :42:01. | |
effectively endorsed the leave the EU strategy we set out and they | :42:02. | :42:05. | |
didn't offer a alternative. So no change on the Brexit strategy? And | :42:06. | :42:12. | |
the anti-Brexit parties, the SNP and Lib Dem, both suffered a fall in | :42:13. | :42:16. | |
their vote share. The country has said they want us to make a success | :42:17. | :42:21. | |
of Brexit. So no change? The plans in the White Paper set out are the | :42:22. | :42:26. | |
right ones and the voters expect us to deliver on the manifesto we ran | :42:27. | :42:30. | |
on, whether you are a Scottish, English or Welsh MP. I can hear your | :42:31. | :42:35. | |
helicopter arriving to whisk you off to the wry ministerial meeting. Let | :42:36. | :42:39. | |
us know what job you get. Viewers in Scotland will leave us for Sunday | :42:40. | :42:44. | |
Politics Scotland now. Jeremy Corbyn... | :42:45. | :42:47. | |
Jeremy Corbyn may have lost the election, | :42:48. | :42:49. | |
but he's clearly cock-a-hoop with the big increase in Labour's | :42:50. | :42:51. | |
share of the vote and the nmber of Labour | :42:52. | :42:54. | |
On Friday he called on Theresa May to resign, | :42:55. | :42:57. | |
and said he was ready to govern the country as a minority | :42:58. | :43:00. | |
Speaking this morning, the Labour leader said he thought there could | :43:01. | :43:03. | |
Speaking this morning, the Labour be another election in the near | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
future. I think it's quite possible that there will be an election later | :43:09. | :43:10. | |
future. I think it's quite possible this year or early next year. And | :43:11. | :43:13. | |
that might be a good thing, because we cannot go on with a period of | :43:14. | :43:16. | |
great instability. We have a we cannot go on with a period of | :43:17. | :43:19. | |
programme, we have the support, and we cannot go on with a period of | :43:20. | :43:22. | |
we are ready to fight another election campaign as soon as may be | :43:23. | :43:25. | |
we are ready to fight another because you want to be able to serve | :43:26. | :43:28. | |
the people of this country on the agenda we put forward, which is | :43:29. | :43:31. | |
transformative, and has gained amazing levels of support. People | :43:32. | :43:38. | |
say, hang on, why are my children worse off than we are, why are my | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
grandchildren? This election wasn't just about Brexit, there was | :43:43. | :43:46. | |
something different about it. It was challenging the economic consensus | :43:47. | :43:47. | |
that has impoverished Sony people. The Labour | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
leader speaking earlier this morning. | :43:52. | :43:53. | |
We've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth. | :43:54. | :43:59. | |
A lot of Labour people have been behaving as if you have won this | :44:00. | :44:06. | |
election, can I point out you have lost three in a row? | :44:07. | :44:11. | |
Yes, but undoubtedly momentum is with us, and momentum is important | :44:12. | :44:21. | |
in politics. It looks like they got the young vote out and that's why | :44:22. | :44:25. | |
you did better-than-expected. The young vote certainly came out for | :44:26. | :44:31. | |
Labour. I found on my part of the world Tory voters switching to | :44:32. | :44:35. | |
Labour over things like the dementia tax, but I also think Ukip | :44:36. | :44:43. | |
supporters voted heavily for Labour because we wanted to invest heavily | :44:44. | :44:49. | |
in the NHS and schools, and people are fed up of cuts to public | :44:50. | :44:53. | |
services and the austerity agenda. So it was a good manifesto? You were | :44:54. | :45:01. | |
happy with it? Yes, I was part of putting it together. You would be | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
happy to fight another election based on that manifesto? Yes, I put | :45:07. | :45:10. | |
together the health section of that manifesto, which gives nurses and | :45:11. | :45:15. | |
midwives of the pay rise, I'm very happy with that manifesto. And yet, | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
you have this manifesto you were happy with, you will rub against a | :45:21. | :45:25. | |
Prime Minister who wanted to fight a personality led presidential | :45:26. | :45:28. | |
campaign, it then turned out the British people didn't think she had | :45:29. | :45:32. | |
much personality and wasn't presidential in nature. You had | :45:33. | :45:38. | |
momentum and you ended up winning no more seats than Gordon Brown in the | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
collection of 2010. Given where we were seven weeks ago, I looked at | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
the opinion polls and thought crikey, this could not be a good | :45:50. | :45:55. | |
result for Labour potentially. Theresa May thought she would have a | :45:56. | :45:58. | |
landslide victory and that's why she put her party first in going for | :45:59. | :46:04. | |
this snap election, and undoubtedly this campaign changed things. I | :46:05. | :46:07. | |
think the key moment was the manifesto week when the Labour Party | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
but forward proposed policies to the country which excited many people, | :46:13. | :46:17. | |
and the Tory party came forward with the dementia tax, getting rid of the | :46:18. | :46:20. | |
winter fuel payment, I think that was a turning point in the election. | :46:21. | :46:27. | |
What does Mr Corbyn do now? When I spoke to Ken Livingstone on Friday | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
he said we did so well on a socialist manifesto, we need more of | :46:32. | :46:36. | |
this. We need more socialism and we will do even better. Is that the | :46:37. | :46:42. | |
lesson Jeremy Corbyn will take or try to reach out more to the centre | :46:43. | :46:46. | |
of his party, now his position is unassailable does he try to reach | :46:47. | :46:51. | |
out beyond his own group? I think there is broad unity and the whole | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
party will come together to take on the Conservatives, who now have a | :46:56. | :46:59. | |
huge problem in Parliament. They can only offer a weak and unstable | :47:00. | :47:09. | |
government. She's trying to cobble together this supply and confidence | :47:10. | :47:12. | |
agreement with the DUP which means all of the decisions in Parliament | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
will be taken on a case-by-case basis. It isn't just the votes on | :47:17. | :47:26. | |
the floor of the House, all of is the statutory instruments will rely | :47:27. | :47:29. | |
on the support of the DUP. She will not be able to guarantee she can get | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
her programme through. We are likely to sue the Government collapse or | :47:35. | :47:38. | |
have a zombie Parliament where we are not debating and voting on | :47:39. | :47:41. | |
legislation because she knows she cannot get it through. If that's the | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
case, even if she puts together a deal with the DUP and it gets off | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
the ground but runs into the kind of difficulties you quite rightly say | :47:51. | :47:54. | |
are possible, and she cannot continue, should Mr Corbyn try to | :47:55. | :48:00. | |
form a minority government? I think so, I think we should try to put our | :48:01. | :48:03. | |
programme of getting rid of tuition fees, investing in the NHS, and ask | :48:04. | :48:11. | |
the other parties to support us. I'm anticipating your next question | :48:12. | :48:14. | |
which is what happens if that doesn't work, well then we are | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
probably heading to another general election at some point. I cannot | :48:19. | :48:21. | |
seem Theresa May surviving as the Prime Minister for the rest of this | :48:22. | :48:25. | |
Parliament for another five days to be frank but who knows. It's likely | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
that you think Mrs May cannot make this work, she can start to make it | :48:32. | :48:35. | |
work but as time goes on it could become more difficult, that Labour | :48:36. | :48:39. | |
could try to form a minority government but given that the | :48:40. | :48:42. | |
Parliamentary arithmetic is not great for her, it is much worse for | :48:43. | :48:50. | |
you, that it may not work? Yes, but you have a responsibility to try and | :48:51. | :48:59. | |
to challenge the other parties to support us honour policies of | :49:00. | :49:02. | |
investing in the NHS, investing in childcare, so that will be a | :49:03. | :49:08. | |
challenge for us but if the Conservatives cannot form a | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
government we would have to take up that responsibility. John McDonnell, | :49:13. | :49:16. | |
the Shadow Chancellor, said to me during the campaign there would be | :49:17. | :49:20. | |
no deals. You don't have to have deals. As I said to him, we have all | :49:21. | :49:35. | |
seen Borgen! They require deals, you have got to give them something. But | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
when you have an minority government, challenging MPs on the | :49:40. | :49:47. | |
other side to support new... My voters in Leicester South were not | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
invited to make a judgment on the DUP manifesto and yet we could have | :49:52. | :49:54. | |
a Conservative government propped up by the time being by the DUP, even | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
though that will have a huge impact on the peace process. I think it is | :50:00. | :50:08. | |
a different arrangement. A minority Labour government wouldn't | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
necessarily rule out getting support from the DUP, they might need it? If | :50:12. | :50:17. | |
they vote for us, everyone will see it because it will be transparent in | :50:18. | :50:22. | |
the way they vote. It does seem we are in for a period of instability | :50:23. | :50:27. | |
in British politics, that is the outcome of this election, and | :50:28. | :50:30. | |
usually when that happens it leads to a second election quite quickly. | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
It could lead to that, and it is ironic given the Tories promised a | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
strong and stable government, and the chaos she warned of is actually | :50:40. | :50:44. | |
chaos in the Tory party, but look at the number of seats in play at the | :50:45. | :50:49. | |
next election now. It will be a Labour Tory stand-off and as a whole | :50:50. | :50:52. | |
range of seats now with Tory majorities of a few hundred which | :50:53. | :50:58. | |
Labour is targeting. Seats which based on the 2015 result we didn't | :50:59. | :51:02. | |
think we could win. And Scotland is in play for Labour again, and it is | :51:03. | :51:07. | |
Scottish MPs sustaining Theresa May in Government at the moment. The | :51:08. | :51:12. | |
message in Scotland will be, if you want a Labour government, both | :51:13. | :51:18. | |
Labour. I bet you never thought you would say that, but let's leave it | :51:19. | :51:19. | |
there. at the beginning of what's likely | :51:20. | :51:30. | |
to be another remarkable And only one thing is certain - | :51:31. | :51:34. | |
the shenanigans over last Thursday's You may still be getting your head | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
around the news about a hung parliament and Theresa May's planned | :51:40. | :51:46. | |
deal with the DUP, We'll find out in a moment, | :51:47. | :51:49. | |
but first let's remind Labour cemented their position | :51:50. | :51:52. | |
as the largest party in Wales gaining 3 seats to give them a total | :51:53. | :51:56. | |
of 28 out of 40. They won those three seats from | :51:57. | :51:59. | |
the Conservatives who still have 8. Plaid Cymru gained Ceredigion | :52:00. | :52:05. | |
to give them 4, while for the first time in more than 150 years, | :52:06. | :52:08. | |
Wales will not be sending a single So much for the seats, but what | :52:09. | :52:11. | |
about the share of the vote? Labour's share was up 12% | :52:12. | :52:20. | |
on two years ago to 48.9%. The Conservatives | :52:21. | :52:23. | |
are second on 33.6. Plaid Cymru moved up into third | :52:24. | :52:24. | |
place though their share was down The LibDems are in fourth, | :52:25. | :52:27. | |
while Ukip's vote collapsed, Here to tell us what they plan to do | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
next are the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, | :52:31. | :52:45. | |
Welsh Labour's campaign manager and MP for Caerphilly, Wayne David, | :52:46. | :52:48. | |
the former Libdem MP Roger Williams and from Bangor, Plaid Cymru's | :52:49. | :52:51. | |
leader at Westminster, Andrew RT Davis, we see that your | :52:52. | :53:07. | |
share of the vote is up but you lost three MPs. What's your take on what | :53:08. | :53:13. | |
happened? Immensely sorry for the three MPs who lost the ability to go | :53:14. | :53:16. | |
back and represent those constituencies. Take the Gower, we | :53:17. | :53:22. | |
increased our boat by 7% of 4000 votes, but it is a fact for everyone | :53:23. | :53:28. | |
for we were putting on Labour were putting two or three and that's | :53:29. | :53:31. | |
because of the implosion of the Nationalists and the Lib Dems. I | :53:32. | :53:35. | |
want you able to capitalise on that in the way that Labour was? We did | :53:36. | :53:41. | |
to a pond, you just said, we had a 34% share of the overall vote which | :53:42. | :53:48. | |
in 2015, we had 29%, we returned 11 MPs but it's a fact the other | :53:49. | :53:52. | |
parties in this race collapsed and ultimately Labour were the main | :53:53. | :53:55. | |
beneficiaries. On a normal sequence of events if I was sitting here with | :53:56. | :54:00. | |
a 34% sure of the vote in Welsh terms that would be seen as | :54:01. | :54:05. | |
historically important, in Scotland, take the point we are celebrating 30 | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
victories, on 30% of the boat, we got 13 MPs come on 30 -- 34% we got | :54:10. | :54:17. | |
eight. What happens next? The has to be a certain amount of | :54:18. | :54:20. | |
responsibility taking, Theresa May didn't need to call the selection | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
and what she has left you with is a mess so what needs to happen? The | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
landscape in London is known and the Prime Minister has gone to the | :54:29. | :54:32. | |
Queen, sought the permission to form a government and that's perfectly | :54:33. | :54:36. | |
legitimate. While it's there to point out... Should she remain as | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
Prime Minister... There to point out that Labour performed better than it | :54:41. | :54:43. | |
not forget Labour are at the point... And we come to that... We | :54:44. | :54:49. | |
aren't the biggest party by about 60 seats, therefore it's incumbent on | :54:50. | :54:53. | |
us to try and form a government to take the country forward. That's | :54:54. | :54:57. | |
what we are doing. Should Theresa May remain as Prime Minister weather | :54:58. | :55:02. | |
amend of this Parliament? She has my support in making sure... For five | :55:03. | :55:06. | |
years? She has my support Mickey Jones she continues his | :55:07. | :55:10. | |
negotiations, given that we are the biggest party in Westminster and | :55:11. | :55:13. | |
it's incumbent on us to form a government. Ultimately, if we do | :55:14. | :55:18. | |
form that government we will offer the solution is that the country | :55:19. | :55:22. | |
needs. Wayne Davis, what do you think should happen? We hear from | :55:23. | :55:26. | |
Jeremy Corbyn this morning most welcoming the idea of an October | :55:27. | :55:32. | |
election, would you support that? I think we are in an extremely | :55:33. | :55:36. | |
difficult position. Theresa May to quote George Osborne this morning is | :55:37. | :55:41. | |
like a dead person walking. And we are going to see an attempt to | :55:42. | :55:45. | |
cobble together some sort of an agreement with the arch | :55:46. | :55:48. | |
reactionaries of British politics, the DUP. I think our job will be to | :55:49. | :55:52. | |
point out the incredible weaknesses that now exist in the government and | :55:53. | :55:57. | |
if there's another election, I would say bring it on and let's get behind | :55:58. | :55:59. | |
Jeremy Corbyn and went that election. It was a successful | :56:00. | :56:05. | |
evening for Labour on two counts, increasing the number of MPs and the | :56:06. | :56:08. | |
largest share of the vote. What's mainly responsible for that? When | :56:09. | :56:15. | |
you saw higher turnout surely that's because of the Jeremy Corbyn factor | :56:16. | :56:19. | |
rather than Carwyn Jones. As your figures have indicated the swing in | :56:20. | :56:23. | |
Wales to Labour was the great -- was greater than the swing in England | :56:24. | :56:27. | |
and they successfully managed to match Jeremy Corbyn's undoubted | :56:28. | :56:34. | |
appeal with Carwyn Jones appeal ahead of Welsh Labour and I think | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
that's a remarkably effective bond which will continue. I those days | :56:39. | :56:44. | |
when we heard MPs like you and others that are sizing Jeremy Corbyn | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
and has policies, his take on pretty much every element of his | :56:49. | :56:53. | |
leadership, I those over? I think we saw a different Jeremy Corbyn to be | :56:54. | :56:56. | |
perfectly honest, it was quite remarkable how he managed to enthuse | :56:57. | :56:59. | |
people and galvanise the support of the country particularly the support | :57:00. | :57:03. | |
of young people and I think because of that he has commanded enormous | :57:04. | :57:07. | |
respect from Labour MPs and the people of this country. Roger, how | :57:08. | :57:10. | |
disappointing is that that for the first time since 1859 won't be | :57:11. | :57:14. | |
liberal voice, if you like, from Wales. We are very disappointed and | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
disappointed that Mark Williams lost Ceredigion. He is Mr Ceredigion to | :57:20. | :57:26. | |
so many people and there are lots of people in the area so disappointed | :57:27. | :57:31. | |
but certainly the traditional Plaid Cymru versus liberal contest was | :57:32. | :57:38. | |
overwhelmed by the Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn issue and that | :57:39. | :57:44. | |
confuse things and allowed... Was drawn for Tim Farron to say | :57:45. | :57:47. | |
absolutely no deal with after the election because it seemed the Lib | :57:48. | :57:52. | |
Dems were pointless. I think he was absolutely right, one of the | :57:53. | :57:55. | |
fighters coming out of the election is that people of the United Kingdom | :57:56. | :57:58. | |
aren't particularly enthused about either Mr macro or Jeremy Corbyn | :57:59. | :58:05. | |
leading this country. And to prop up or support either of those wouldn't | :58:06. | :58:08. | |
be a proper role for the Liberal Democrats but just to say, in the | :58:09. | :58:12. | |
future, yes, we will be willing to work with people if it's in the | :58:13. | :58:15. | |
national interest but at the moment, it isn't. Hannah Williams, would it | :58:16. | :58:24. | |
be fair to say that Plaid Cymru's victory in Ceredigion, in much the | :58:25. | :58:27. | |
same way as last year and Leanne Wood, just one excellent result | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
masks what was otherwise if early dire set of results for Plaid Cymru? | :58:33. | :58:45. | |
It was a UK election. The Labour Party couldn't bring themselves to | :58:46. | :58:47. | |
mention Jeremy Corbyn throughout the campaign. We stayed the same to some | :58:48. | :58:54. | |
extent, my vote in our fun did not change, but what we did see was the | :58:55. | :58:58. | |
collapse of the right-wing British Ukip party and there are votes in | :58:59. | :59:05. | |
this area and elsewhere went to Labour or the Tories, that explains | :59:06. | :59:09. | |
a great deal of what happened. You were within 92 votes of losing your | :59:10. | :59:12. | |
constituency, has it been a point that maybe too much of your party's | :59:13. | :59:16. | |
focus was elsewhere rather than trying to concentrate on where you | :59:17. | :59:21. | |
needed to defend your seats are you had a better chance of gaining | :59:22. | :59:25. | |
seats? We worked very hard in this constituency and in Ceredigion, we | :59:26. | :59:31. | |
also worked hard in the other target constituencies that we had, that is | :59:32. | :59:33. | |
what the people there would expect us to do. In this constituency, as I | :59:34. | :59:38. | |
said, are both remained the same, I think there was 200 difference but | :59:39. | :59:43. | |
Ukip did not stand, two and a half thousand votes for going and they | :59:44. | :59:46. | |
went instead of to the right-wing Conservative Party, they went to the | :59:47. | :59:53. | |
Labour Party. It would be extremely surprising how they voted for me as | :59:54. | :59:58. | |
a left-wing de centralist Ceredigion MP. As that left-wing centralist... | :59:59. | :00:07. | |
I am trying... De centralist... We have heard me Corbyn saying he's | :00:08. | :00:15. | |
going to reach out to the people now as the Plaid Cymru leader in | :00:16. | :00:17. | |
Westminster will you be seeking to in any way you can help me Corbyn's | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
Labour Party to help keep the Conservatives DUP out? We would be | :00:23. | :00:26. | |
very happy to listen to any Progressive party, whichever part of | :00:27. | :00:31. | |
the Labour Party that is. Of course, the Welsh Labour Party have made | :00:32. | :00:37. | |
great play over the distinction from the Labour Party in London. So we'd | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
be very happy to talk to progress people in other parties and | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
certainly... Is that a yes? I am telling you we will listen to what | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
they have to say because we are not interested in a coalition of any | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
sort, I don't think they are either and I should say the Conservative | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
AUP coalition or arrangement fills me with complete dismay. They are an | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
appalling party. On that point, Andrew Arty Davis, how comfortable | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
you feel that what you are going to have now at best, I guess, is a | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
conservative administration, a government, propped up essentially | :01:14. | :01:20. | |
by the DUP. It is for colleagues in London to look at the numbers and | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
see how they can work through this. Ultimately it was talked about this | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
morning that in 2008, for example, Gordon Brown worked with the DUP to | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
bring forward security legislation. But not to rely on them in | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
government for five years? It's about looking at the numbers, that's | :01:36. | :01:39. | |
what democracy is in deciding whether you have the numbers to | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
sustain a majority in the House of Commons and other before colleagues | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
to explore this weekend in the negotiations. What will come of | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
that, obviously, we will learn... What you know there are views on | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
things like gay rights, abortion, allsorts of, I guess, for many | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
people, unpalatable views that they hold. Would that be something you'd | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
be happy with bringing that element and relying on that element? Many of | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
the view is that they hold our polar opposite to the views that I hold, I | :02:07. | :02:10. | |
readily acknowledge that what for agreement can be found, we are not | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
looking at a coalition, we are looking at as I understand it, a | :02:14. | :02:17. | |
confidence and supply arrangement on particular issues, the budget, for | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
example, and other matters that might need to be agreed with to get | :02:21. | :02:23. | |
the votes for the House of Commons. It is not taking a formal coalition | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
and discussing those particular issues, it's more about the big | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
political questions of the David obviously need to command a majority | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
in the House and that is what colleagues will discuss as we go | :02:37. | :02:38. | |
forward. I guess one of the most important of those would be fought | :02:39. | :02:43. | |
would have been EU money and we soared in the Conservative | :02:44. | :02:45. | |
manifesto, there's going to beat this part of money for the poor | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
areas of the UK. Scotland and Ruth Davidson with say we have more | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
Scottish MPs from the Conservatives now, but there are boys listen to, | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
the DUP will certainly make their boys listen to, the danger with | :02:58. | :03:00. | |
Wales is that it will be ignored in sharing out that extra money that we | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
could be expecting from the EU? I disagree with that, the successes | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
that we've had a sludge Conservatives in government, the | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
funding floor put in place recently... But the dynamic is | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
different of government? We have a 12 Conservative MPs up there as well | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
which will be negotiating hard and working hard with colleagues in | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
Westminster to make sure we have a government that can deliver on the | :03:25. | :03:27. | |
priorities the country needs to go forward. It is a fact, Labour Party | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
at the moment after they were in 2010... You don't have any cards to | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
play. We have more MPs and it's incumbent on us as the largest party | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
with an Westminster to form a government and that's what's | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
happening over this weekend. Can I make the point about the situation | :03:47. | :03:49. | |
which is unfolding in my concern is threefold. I'm concerned that the | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
Conservatives may be adopting reactionary social policies which | :03:54. | :03:56. | |
the party has mentioned, I'm concerned about funding because the | :03:57. | :04:00. | |
street unionist will demand a pound of flesh and my concern is that it | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
might be at the expense of Wales but third, I'm also concerned about the | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
peace settlement in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday agreement, | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
absolutely fundamental to that is the Irish government and the British | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
Government being honest brokers and if the DUP are not effectively part | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
of the British Government, that puts a big question over the whole peace | :04:23. | :04:27. | |
process in Northern Ireland, that's found the worrying for assault. | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
Should it be a situation, we seem to remit and today talking about the | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
Queen's Speech, the programme of government there will essentially be | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
a different version, an alternative from Labour. To what extent is it | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
incumbent on Jeremy Corbyn to reach out to people like the Lib Dems and | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
Plaid Cymru so they can get the broadest possible level of support? | :04:49. | :04:55. | |
-- worrying for us all. The emphasis will be on the other parties at the | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
same time to call operator and be constructive but I think the crucial | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
thing is the leadership of the country and Theresa May | :05:05. | :05:06. | |
unfortunately is not in a position to provide effective and strong | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
leadership. I fear that will become increasingly apparent in the next | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
weeks and months if she survives that long and adventure in the | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
Corbyn, the onus is on him and I think you will rise to the occasion, | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
to become the Prime Minister in waiting. Roger Williams, when we | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
talk about progressive parties coming together how much of an | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
emphasis do you think needs to be on the 12, 13 Lib Dem MPs to try and | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
work with Labour and other parties? We must make an assessment really of | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
the proposals put forward by the liberal party. During the election | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
campaign we were very concerned about the rash, we think, promises | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
that were made in terms of finance and how they would be put in place | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
in... Is that a no? No, I think we shall see the Labour Party modifying | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
its approach, being more realistic is the time goes on. And during that | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
time no coalition, no agreement but seeing whether we can work with | :06:07. | :06:08. | |
those progressive parties in some sort of an alliance? Andrew Art tee | :06:09. | :06:15. | |
Davis, one of the issues during the campaign in Wales was a lack of | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
clear leadership, we saw in TV debates it was always Carwyn Jones, | :06:20. | :06:24. | |
with the Tories it was sometimes you, once it was you, once it was | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
Alan Kearns and once it was Darren Millar because you couldn't come to | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
an agreement so what went wrong and who has to take responsible at the? | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
I agree with you entirely, we have a strong, distinct Welsh Conservative | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
round but we need to be able to make a political decisions here in Wales | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
and have... So you are... Let me get to the first point, we have a | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
designated leader here in Wales similar to what Labour formalised in | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
March and I readily acknowledge that, the moment what happens is in | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
default aspects I lead on devolution, on secondary estate | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
aspects such as Westminster, the Secretary of State Leeds and the | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
chairman of the voluntary party obviously leads on voluntary | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
party... So who should lead? That's a discussion for the party but I | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
think Scotland has a very good model which has shown to be successful... | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
Sorry to interrupt but Ruth Davidson is the leader in Scotland, there is | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
no discussion on that so if that's a good model then it should be due as | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
leader? These are discussions to be had as we go forward, we are only 72 | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
hours after the close of poll but there is a deficiency in the ability | :07:35. | :07:40. | |
to make a decision is from a party prospective and I do acknowledge | :07:41. | :07:43. | |
that, there's no point denying it. What we are looking at is making | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
sure we reflect on the solid 34% of the vote we achieved on Thursday | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
night, we also reflect and support sadly colleagues who did not make it | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
back to Westminster and candidates and activists who work tirelessly | :07:57. | :07:59. | |
but let's not forget, there is a huge job offer to be done as we go | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
forward as a country, Conservative Party is the largest party in | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
Westminster and it's incumbent we make an effort to form a government. | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
Why would you go on holiday during the course of a campaign? I was | :08:15. | :08:22. | |
celebrating my wedding anniversary. One moment, Hannah Williams, we have | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
heard Leanne Wood saying there needs to be a period of reflection, saying | :08:29. | :08:38. | |
that the needs to be and what needs to change for Plaid Cymru, you want | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
Ceredigion but it's been, last year, you are stagnating in terms of your | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
ability to reach out to beyond your heart and, perhaps? Any reasonable | :08:49. | :08:57. | |
and live a little party will reassess its course continually and | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
we of course will do that. Does anything need to change? Obviously | :09:01. | :09:06. | |
we would like to win and what ever we need to do to change within the | :09:07. | :09:08. | |
principles that we have set out before the selection, we will | :09:09. | :09:15. | |
proceed. Like what, for work the witnesses? It's very clear what we | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
need to succeed and that is the line that we will be giving to any | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
progressive party that wants to talk to us, which is defending the | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
200,000 or so jobs in Wales which depend on European Union, the moment | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
defending farming and also ensuring our universities get academics and | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
staff from European universities coming over here, students coming | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
over, our agenda is Jimmy clear and we have been consistently sold | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
throughout this election whilst other parties, if I may say so, have | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
bent with the wind, either doing a U-turn on something like social care | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
or suddenly finding a profound love for Jeremy Corbyn when they couldn't | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
even come to mention him previously. On that point the Brexit, the tax | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
that Theresa May surely has to take, she surely has to change, the | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
situation that she had, she had a majority, it was always going to be | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
difficult, she wanted to strengthen her hand, her hand is infinitely | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
weaker, she will have to change your view and how she goes about | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
negotiations? Those conversations that are being undertaken as the | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
supply and confidence arrangement is discussed going forward to see | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
whether the government can get its business through the House of | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
Commons but it is a fact we know the stopwatch has started because | :10:35. | :10:37. | |
Article 50 was triggered at the end of March. Let's not forget that last | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
June the referendum here in Wales here given instruction to the | :10:43. | :10:44. | |
government that we needed to rebalance this relationship with | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
Europe, Wales voted out on these negotiations are about finding an | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
accommodation, agreement, arrangement that reflects that | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
referendum result. Thank you so much all of you for coming in. I'm sure | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
we have further discussions about many things over the next few weeks. | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
A lot has been said since Thursday about turnout, well turnout | :11:05. | :11:06. | |
in Wales and across the UK is at its highest since 1997. | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
Some say much of that is down to a surge in mainly | :11:10. | :11:12. | |
Here in Wales, Merthyr saw the highest percentage increase | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
in turnout this time, so we sent our reporter Bethan Lewis | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
A post-election haircut at Merthyr's College salon, there's not much talk | :11:19. | :11:36. | |
of Theresa May troubles here, it's a chance to escape college but student | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
her dresser Emma Majors she voted on Thursday. It's the first time I felt | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
I had to vote. Did you have to vote -- think about whether you were | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
going to vote? I had to think about who I was going to pick and when I | :11:51. | :11:54. | |
sat down and spoke with my family, we wanted to make a decision | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
together, now I'm getting older I think it's quite important for us to | :11:58. | :12:03. | |
actually start voting and things because it's our future at the end | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
of the day but some people they don't want to vote. I don't know | :12:07. | :12:12. | |
why. I think there are more people who voted this time because they | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
want Labour in. To help, I suppose, the NHS and the education. Devolved | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
issues but ones that seem to have cut through, across the college | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
they've been trying to get the students engaged in the election and | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
weaving it into lessons. Including reading the party manifestoes in | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
English classes. We looked at some of the language, the language and | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
power, the propaganda. Do you think reading the manifestoes was more | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
likely to make them want to vote? Yes. No, absolutely, there was such | :12:44. | :12:50. | |
a huge focus on tuition fees and issues that they related to stop its | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
not just reading a piece of paper, reading a document it's helped us | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
impact them and their lies and that's how you get passion within | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
learners. Turnout in birth was up seven and a half percent on the 2015 | :13:05. | :13:11. | |
general election to over 60% but that's still significantly lower | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
than the all Wales figure and still amongst the low as ten Wales but | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
they are happy here that there has been progress. And for election | :13:20. | :13:26. | |
watchers to it's encouraging. We are really encouraged to see the turnout | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
across Wales increasing by 3%, something that wasn't necessarily | :13:33. | :13:34. | |
expected and it's definitely a really good result. While it's not | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
as high as the EU referendum turnout last year it is the highest it's | :13:40. | :13:45. | |
been since 97 and 40 weekend get early indications on so far is there | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
is potential for the youth vote to increase which will have had a | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
substantial impact. And from a geography A-level exam the students | :13:54. | :13:55. | |
were adamant they wanted their voice to be heard. I thought it was more | :13:56. | :14:02. | |
aimed at younger people to vote, to get our voices heard. This is not | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
only an election about tuition fees which is here important but also an | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
election about Brexit. I think all of my friends particularly on | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
Facebook, I think, pretty much all of my friends voted. In this | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
election Labour strengthened its grip on the seat with the incumbent | :14:22. | :14:28. | |
Gerald Jones taking 60% -- six to 7% of the vote, though turnout was up, | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
40% of people still didn't cast a ballot. You weren't more interested | :14:34. | :14:42. | |
in this election? No. This year, I didn't vote, I don't like to. | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
There's not much to vote for, is there? There's no decency in it. The | :14:47. | :14:55. | |
majority of people I know who went up there, they listen to what was | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
going on on Facebook and Twitter and everything, Jeremy Corbyn has spoken | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
for the young people, I mean, last year when it was all Brexit and | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
during that, I didn't know what was going on, I didn't understand it, | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
didn't want to vote because they didn't want to vote the wrong way | :15:12. | :15:14. | |
because if I voted on something I didn't understand and it ended up | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
worse off, I would feel bad about it but this time, it's been like, | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
Jeremy Corbyn, he's the man! At the moment the information about who | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
voted and why is mainly anecdotal, there will be more data in weeks to | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
come. After an election that's stumped politicians and voters | :15:33. | :15:33. | |
alike. Here to tell me exactly | :15:34. | :15:35. | |
what's going to happen next are Dr Sam Blaxland | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
from Swansea University and the political consultant | :15:40. | :15:41. | |
Valerie Livingston... Yes, for two-week old next in 30 | :15:42. | :15:57. | |
seconds? Let's look at the campaign, where did it go wrong, Valerie, for | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
the Conservatives? I don't know that much did wrong with the Conservative | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
campaign, in a sense they got out the vote, the problem was they | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
underestimated the Labour vote and they didn't react to the changing | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
campaign dynamic. There were charges against Theresa May, she didn't | :16:15. | :16:17. | |
respond to them and I think that's why we are now in the position we | :16:18. | :16:22. | |
are, her approval ratings are through the floor. Some, that was | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
the problem, they had a presidential campaign but Theresa May doesn't | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
really strike you as the outgoing, effervescent presidential kind of | :16:32. | :16:34. | |
candidate needed for that? And to echo for Valerie said but also what | :16:35. | :16:39. | |
Andrew said in the last piece, the Conservatives didn't have a bad day, | :16:40. | :16:47. | |
over 53% of the vote, in 1997 they would have killed for that, it | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
wasn't a bad day for that it was a much better day for the Labour | :16:51. | :16:54. | |
Party. The presidential aspect of it clearly was a problem come off when | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
I was last on here was a pulse which came out saying the Conservatives | :16:59. | :17:01. | |
were on track to be the biggest party in Wales, I don't think that | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
was a fluke, there was a law to be said for it, the support base was | :17:07. | :17:08. | |
there it was the fact that the Conservatives had a terrible | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
campaign and Labour had a particularly good one. Theresa May, | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
spoke to the electorate in a patronising manner to be frank and | :17:19. | :17:20. | |
Jeremy Corbyn spoke to them directly, even if you don't agree | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
with many of his policies and the costs, he speaks of rhetoric with | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
hope which is engaging. Is there an element here that we shouldn't pay | :17:31. | :17:38. | |
so much attention or heed to polling and a campaign, the likes of which | :17:39. | :17:41. | |
Jeremy Corbyn set out over the last three weeks can be successful | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
because what he did was address rallies of thousands of thousands of | :17:46. | :17:49. | |
people and they are all Labour supporters, they are not going to | :17:50. | :17:52. | |
win the centre ground, that's out the window, isn't it? We saw those | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
rallies but there was also another Labour campaign going on and there | :17:58. | :18:00. | |
are interesting reports on the Sunday newspapers about peer-to-peer | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
social media sharing that was going on, Labour were targeting their | :18:06. | :18:08. | |
voters through the medium that the voters were comfortable with, not | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
hearing messages on the front pages of the newspapers, they were getting | :18:13. | :18:15. | |
them direct from their friends on the phones. They weren't even | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
watching us, imagine. Does that mean there needs to be a change in future | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
in terms of how campaigns are run, we've heard so many times this will | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
be the social media, this will be the online campaign, has it finally | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
crossed over into that being a reality? I think it's been a gradual | :18:33. | :18:37. | |
evolution, we seem social media player role in political campaigning | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
for over ten years, the American election it plays a significant role | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
there. As the polls I don't think we can discount them all together but I | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
think we might need to be a little bit more cynical and question their | :18:49. | :18:51. | |
methods to make sure we take the results with a pinch of salt. Sam, | :18:52. | :18:55. | |
in Wales, one of the things that struck me looking at the numbers was | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
the dominance of Labour plus the Conservative, it was over 82, 83% of | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
the share, but those two Michael Paterson, the highest since 1966. -- | :19:05. | :19:12. | |
the highest of those two parties. Have they squeezed the smaller | :19:13. | :19:15. | |
parties? Perhaps but it's the reason the Conservatives did badly, the | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
fact the small parties have been squeezed, there is no Lib Dem MP | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
here is very significant. Thinking this morning, 1859, there has been a | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
Liberal MP even though Lib Dems are not liberals, levodopa, Lloyd | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
George, Wales has been the party of some prominent liberal types so that | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
significant. But Plaid Cymru, this is indicative of the strange way | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
that first past the post works, Plaid Cymru de Necib but lose in the | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
proportion of their vote but at the end of the day it's judged by seats, | :19:50. | :19:53. | |
which is and has ramifications and an impact for party politics. What | :19:54. | :20:00. | |
did that mean for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats and Ukip, | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
smaller parties who felt the squeezed a such an extent, yes Plaid | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
Cymru one Ceredigion but otherwise party share was down everywhere. | :20:09. | :20:13. | |
What do they need to do to react? I think they need to find a way to | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
make themselves relevant through the whole parliament, a few votes can | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
make the difference. Now is the time for party discipline, they need to | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
decide what the goals are over this parliament however long it lasts and | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
pursue them ruthlessly. I was expecting something like that from | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
Hannah Williams but he seemed more measured, a lot less keen to say we | :20:33. | :20:37. | |
are going to go in and these are our demands and we have these things | :20:38. | :20:41. | |
about devolution and 74 and Harold Wilson and all that kind of thing, a | :20:42. | :20:43. | |
lot more measured. Was that surprising? Maybe he doesn't want to | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
be seen as opportunistic, picking political capital out of a crisis | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
but as the last piece covered there are gains to be made and it's up to | :20:54. | :20:59. | |
Welsh MPs and even the Welsh government to start putting pressure | :21:00. | :21:02. | |
on the UK Government at this times when it really has to grant | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
concessions to get its programme across. Sam you spent a lot of time | :21:07. | :21:09. | |
studying the history of the Conservatives in Wales, this | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
situation they find themselves in now, having to rely on the DUP | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
what's the danger for the Conservatives? Could it read toxic | :21:19. | :21:22. | |
fight the Conservative brand, do you think? Yes, I did a lot by research | :21:23. | :21:28. | |
on the long, hard slog of the Conservative Party pigeon to | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
detoxify themselves in Wales, they were for ever at the party in terms | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
of having perceived as the party of the landed Squires and through a | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
long process they managed to distance themselves from that. There | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
are elements of the DUP politics which are lying with the current | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
bothering Conservative Party but for bubbly more of its right-wing side | :21:50. | :21:54. | |
and faction. There is potentially that problem but ultimately the | :21:55. | :21:57. | |
arithmetic says it's the only way they can go, I think. How | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
long-lasting can that be, will it last five years? Does anyone really | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
think that? The Prime Minister will not last pipe bombs I imagine and | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
this Parliament is going to be short-lived as well. But the | :22:11. | :22:13. | |
Conservatives want to go into another election has reports in the | :22:14. | :22:16. | |
Sunday papers that Labour feels the momentum is with them and they would | :22:17. | :22:22. | |
fear going to the country again for all kinds of reasons. It's a mess | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
extra mission mark do you think that? Theresa May won't last more | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
than five months, until the end of the year? I would give her a little | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
longer, I suspect the Conservative Party will let her progress with | :22:37. | :22:39. | |
Brexit negotiations, WADA said dirty job and most Conservative | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
politicians don't want to be seen as the face of Brexit because | :22:45. | :22:46. | |
politically it will be difficult but as we progress through that we might | :22:47. | :22:51. | |
find the knives, for Theresa May. I think an election next year. It | :22:52. | :22:55. | |
might just be me who sends this when she was going into Downing Street | :22:56. | :22:58. | |
and felt like a speech she made, the way she did it was as if she was | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
putting into motion the handover of power. In slow motion, not doing an | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
Ed Miliband, cutting and running leaving everyone in chaos but I | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
would assume discussions will be happening very soon about how she | :23:13. | :23:14. | |
slowly transitions to another leader but I have no insight into the | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
corridors of power. Valery, the point you made, there is Brexit, | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
time and again we heard during this campaign, the discussions start in a | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
week. That is still happening, how does that change the dynamic, in | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
terms of forming a government, Theresa May as Prime Minister, it | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
buys her time but whenever there is a change of Prime Minister it's | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
always going to cause a hell of a lot of confusion with race | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
discussions? It makes things hugely difficult, the matter what side of | :23:47. | :23:55. | |
the political divide you are wrong, -- you are on... What I would say | :23:56. | :23:59. | |
about the DUP, their position on Brexit is interesting and different | :24:00. | :24:01. | |
to some of the Conservative politicians. Perhaps having the DUP | :24:02. | :24:09. | |
there to deal with one of the great unanswered issues about leaving the | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
European Union which has the border with Ireland might even add a useful | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
flavour to it. It also means I guess, if you have the DUP not | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
calling the shots but contributing to things, they won't allow Theresa | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
May to have no deal because that would mean having to have that hard | :24:26. | :24:31. | |
border with Ireland so went Theresa May says no deal is better than a | :24:32. | :24:34. | |
bad deal the DUP are going to say, no, no, that is not the case. Does | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
it change how she will have to approach the Brexit discussions? | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
Certainly it places constraints on how she can take the negotiations | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
forward, the DUP have set out their stands on how they want the Irish | :24:49. | :24:50. | |
border to operate and I would imagine that will be a red line for | :24:51. | :24:53. | |
them in any agreement they reach with Theresa May. But minority | :24:54. | :24:57. | |
governments don't need to be a disaster, it is workable, we've seen | :24:58. | :25:02. | |
the SNP lead two minority governments in Scotland but for me | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
the big question is three Brexit, so complex politically, it's an stable | :25:08. | :25:10. | |
and an uncertain arrangement. The point I was trying to make, the | :25:11. | :25:16. | |
panel earlier, that issue of money, because the DUP will want a certain | :25:17. | :25:20. | |
amount of yes, please, thank you and when we have the money that would | :25:21. | :25:24. | |
have gone to the EU it is going to go into a fund that the | :25:25. | :25:27. | |
Conservatives have, Scotland will make their voice heard, the DUP will | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
make sure its voice heard, is there at this danger that Wales is | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
ignored? The DUP might want a lot of supply for their confidence. There | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
is the potential that Wales is ignored and Welsh politics is always | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
aligned, if you like, two English politics more so than Scottish and | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
Northern Irish politics. There's a danger that Wales sits on the | :25:50. | :25:51. | |
sidelines but were discussing, there is the Welsh government's role in | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
this as well and they will have to be part of discussions because a lot | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
of devolved issues in Wales is for European money goes into. Carwyn | :26:03. | :26:07. | |
Jones has tried to make the point and make his voice heard, making it | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
heard will be more difficult. He can't be reactive this time because | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
the situation changes too quickly so instead of waiting to be invited to | :26:17. | :26:19. | |
the table and be annoyed when he isn't, he needs to push for that | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
now. It's not about the MPs to campaign for that money it's down to | :26:24. | :26:28. | |
the Welsh government. They have this paper last year along with Plaid | :26:29. | :26:30. | |
Cymru, they've made known their views, to Fort extent now do you | :26:31. | :26:36. | |
think because the dynamic has changed in Westminster, it's going | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
to be difficult for Carwyn Jones and the Welsh government? Yes, it will | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
be difficult and there is also the point to add, regardless of us much | :26:44. | :26:49. | |
less stable Westminster government, Wales still voted to leave the | :26:50. | :26:54. | |
European Union, 52-48 proportions. That needs to be taken into account | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
but the election wasn't just a rerun of the referendum which makes | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
everything thrown up in the air and it doesn't line up neatly. Thank you | :27:04. | :27:05. | |
both so much. That's it from the Sunday | :27:06. | :27:07. | |
Politics for today. What kind of political landscape | :27:08. | :27:09. | |
will we be talking about next week? There's only one way | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
to find out of course - Now I suggest you all go and lie | :27:13. | :27:14. | |
down in a darkened room and prepare If you can't do that, | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
then you've always got our feed on Twitter to keep you company | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
- we're @walespolitics. But that's all from this | :27:24. | :27:26. | |
week - diolch am wylio, | :27:27. | :27:29. |