11/06/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


11/06/2017

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But stay with us for more drama as we can now go straight

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We are indeed in the sunshine. Welcome from the heart of

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Westminster. Theresa May reappointing key figures

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to the Cabinet, sacking had to closest aides, Nick Timothy and

:00:27.:00:30.

Fiona Hill. After Conservative MPs demanded their removal in the

:00:31.:00:35.

Conservative failure to win an overall majority in the House of

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Commons. Over the next hour and a bit we'll continue to take stock on

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the remarkable events of the last 72 hours and try to work out where we

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go from here. First though, here's Adam Fleming

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with a reminder of the high octane I was going to say this

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chair is quite warm. Michael Fallon's bum

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was on this chair. Bums on seats, its election

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night at the BBC, hosted This is David Dimbleby's

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actual seat! Look, he's got four pencils,

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stopwatch and a calculator. And what we are saying

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is the Conservatives Note, they don't have an overall

:01:17.:01:23.

majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives,

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that's down 17. Luckily there were plenty

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of politicians who never are. What does this exit

:01:34.:01:43.

poll actually mean? Well, if it's accurate it means

:01:44.:01:50.

Theresa May has just presided over the greatest catastrophe that I can

:01:51.:01:52.

think of in the Conservative We haven't seen a seat change hands

:01:53.:01:55.

and we are hearing about possible Conservative gains in the Midlands

:01:56.:02:02.

and losses in London, People will write Ph.D.s about the

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2017 election Labour candidates were winning

:02:05.:02:10.

in unexpected places. Tories were losing in unexpected

:02:11.:02:16.

places, including eight members of the Government,

:02:17.:02:20.

like Treasury minister The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd,

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held on in Hastings...just. OK, the former Deputy Prime Minister

:02:23.:02:30.

and former leader of the Liberal Democrats,

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Nick Clegg, has been beaten I've always sought to stand

:02:33.:02:34.

by the liberal values I believe in, but I, of course, have encountered

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this evening something many people have encountered before tonight,

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and I suspect many people will encounter after tonight,

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which is - in politics you live by the sword, and you

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die by the sword. Lib Dem leader Tim Farron

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was narrowly re-elected in Cumbria, unlike the SNP's Westminster

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leader Angus Robertson, who lost his seat, former First

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Minister Alex Salmond defeated too. The Scottish National Party have

:03:05.:03:07.

lost many fine parliamentarians this evening, and that is a grievous blow

:03:08.:03:11.

to the SNP. But overall the results in Scotland

:03:12.:03:16.

show the SNP will have won a majority of the seats in this

:03:17.:03:20.

country and a majority of the vote. Paul Nuttall failed to get

:03:21.:03:23.

elected in Skegness So, the green room looking a bit

:03:24.:03:30.

ruined, a bit like Ukip I think we are doing

:03:31.:03:37.

better than the SNP. I think it's quite interesting

:03:38.:03:41.

the main leading Brexit candidates in this election

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are getting their seat back. Right, it's dawn in the real world

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and I found a pub that has been open What state are they going

:03:57.:04:17.

to be in, in there? And was it young people

:04:18.:04:24.

who had seen Corbyn, voted, and got the T-shirt who helped

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the Labour leader to Right, five past five

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in the morning, we are outside Jeremy Corbyn's house in Islington

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in north London. Surprisingly small press pack

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for the man who's destroyed Jeremy!

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Jeremy! If there is a message from

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tonight's result, it's this - the Prime Minister called

:04:43.:04:49.

the election because Well, the mandate she's got is lost

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Conservative seats, lost votes, I would have thought that's enough

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to go actually and make way for a government that will be truly

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representative of all Theresa May did the opposite,

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popping to the palace, What the country needs more

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than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest

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number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general

:05:24.:05:27.

election, it is clear that only the Conservatives and Unionist Party

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have the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty

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by commanding a majority As we do, we will continue to work

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with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party

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in particular. 15 hours after election night

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started, it's all over. And joined by Tom Newton Dunn, Julia

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Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards. Julia, why did it go so wrong for

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the Conservatives? You can't run a presidential campaign if you have a

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candidate with less than the charisma of this desk. If you're not

:06:33.:06:37.

going to put her out to debate, if she's not coming to the people and

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selling herself, which she studiously didn't do, you can't run

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that campaign. There was the possibility another leader could

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have walked that with 800 majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Another

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campaign, we will never know, could have delivered a majority of 30 or

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40, without the deal with the DUP. I'm not saying it was fundamentally

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wrong to call the election at this time, but it was the wrong candidate

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and the wrong campaign. The third election in a row that Labour has

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failed to win. It was still a substantial and historic achievement

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for Jeremy Corbyn. If you consider the context in which this election

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was called, Theresa May, on her honeymoon to die for, politically,

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with Labour voters split over Brexit, suddenly calling an election

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when most Labour MPs were not willing to cooperate with whatever

:07:37.:07:39.

campaign was being held by Labour, for them to do as well as they have

:07:40.:07:43.

done is an extraordinary achievement. They got no more seats

:07:44.:07:47.

than Gordon Brown in 2010, roughly the same. But the context couldn't

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have been more daunting, and to wipe out a majority of this figure, who

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six weeks ago was walking on water and appeared to have Brexit as part

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of her ammunition against the split Labour vote, remains astonishing.

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One of the errors she made and so many others she made and probably

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all of us, was to underestimate the potency of Corbyn and the relatively

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modest social Democrat manifesto. Doesn't it take stupidity bordering

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on genius to turn a 20 point lead at the start of the campaign into a

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hung parliament? It does and it did. That's what happened. I think the

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lead was soft, largely because Theresa May was unknown. We know her

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because we have been having lunch and interviews with her for years on

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end. The public didn't know her. They got to know her and they

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discovered she was the Maybot, which is the term that will stick after

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this campaign. I differ from my two colleagues here, it wasn't the

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amazing right of Corbyn, it was a complete failure to remember that

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people wanted a revolution when they voted for Brexit, and she came

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across as the party and candidate of continuity. As things stand, we are

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where we are. Where are we?! Where do we go from here? I was with

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College Green with you in the early hours of Friday morning and I didn't

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see anybody that said, see you back here in October. A second election?

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God forbid, nobody wants a second election, but I can't see the Tories

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being able to stay in power with the DUP and I'm personally very unhappy

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with a lot of DUP policies, their stance on gay rights, capital

:09:38.:09:40.

punishment, abortion rights, and there will be an awful lot of

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people, floating voters, who will recoil in horror at that, even on

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unofficial lines. I get the sense Jeremy Corbyn will be up for a

:09:50.:09:54.

second election, as quick as it comes. I'm sure he is, and if there

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was one company might well win it, which is why there won't be. All

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logic points to another election but I don't think there will be one,

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because I don't think any Conservative Prime Minister will

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feel strong and confident enough after the trauma of this. They would

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have to be 50 points ahead in the polls to take the risk. I think

:10:14.:10:19.

rather like between 74 and 79 we will have a frail and fragile House

:10:20.:10:22.

of Commons with a minority government for quite a long time,

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simply because whoever is Prime Minister will not have the

:10:26.:10:29.

confidence to call an election. So the Tories fear of a quick second

:10:30.:10:33.

election could well result in them going more leniently on Mrs May than

:10:34.:10:37.

they really want to. We have seen already, Miss Mrs May is still Prime

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Minister. That wouldn't have happened by now if they thought they

:10:46.:10:50.

could win a second snap election. I think they will stabilise. They are

:10:51.:10:55.

also desperate to get Brexit negotiations underway. That's

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another reason she is still there. She is the one who needs to pull the

:10:58.:11:01.

trigger. Most of the Tory party are aching to have the trigger pulled.

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When that is bold, when I have stabilised, and when Jeremy Corbyn

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is back the House of Commons, where remember he's not very good, I think

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they might your right. Lots more to talk about. Thank you for being with

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me in the open air, the Westminster penthouse, open to the world. I just

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need to find the cocktail bar. Although it is early.

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So, let's take a look at the election results

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Here's how the parties fared in the election on Thursday.

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And here's how they got on in the previous general

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As you can see, the Labour vote is up dramatically, by ten points.

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But the Conservative vote also rose quite significantly, by five points.

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The SNP and the Liberal Democrats both saw declines in their support.

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And Ukip's vote has almost completely collapsed,

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from 13% in 2015 to just 2% this time around.

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So the resurgence of two-party politics is one of the key

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The combined vote share of the two main parties is now 82%,

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the highest it's been since the election in 1970.

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And it's more if you exclude Northern Ireland.

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That's partly explained by the collapse of Ukip.

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According to one estimate, the Conservatives may have got 57%

:12:19.:12:22.

It's also thought that last year's EU referendum has helped to polarise

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support along the traditional Labour and Conservative lines.

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In polls carried out before the election,

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it was estimated that 50% of remain voters supported Labour and nearly

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two-thirds of leave voters supported the Conservatives.

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There's also speculation that a rise in the number of young voters may be

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behind the boost in Labour's support - but we don't yet have

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But it's notable that Labour did well in certain constituencies

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For example, it's thought that the large number of students

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in Canterbury helped Labour win the seat for the first time

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ever, with a 9% swing from the Conservatives.

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The two main parties have also seen changes in their number of seats.

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Labour lost six seats but gained 36, giving them a net gain of 30 seats.

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Most of those Labour gains were in England,

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where the party took 27 seats, mainly from the Conservatives.

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They also gained three seats in Wales and six

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As for the Conservatives, they lost a total of 33

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seats but also gained 20, giving them a net loss of 13 seats.

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Most of those 20 Conservative gains came in Scotland,

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where the party took 12 seats from the SNP.

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Meaning the Scottish Tories are allowing Mrs May to try to form

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Meaning the Scottish Tories are government this week! Who would have

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thought! In England,

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the Conservatives won Joining me now from Glasgow

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is the brains behind Thursday night's astoundingly accurate exit

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poll, the polling expert And John, the Tories saw a 5-point

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rise in the share of the votes to 42%, very high by recent historical

:14:24.:14:30.

standards, but still lost over a dozen seats, why? Under our first

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past the post electoral system, the share of the vote you get is almost

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irrelevant. What is crucial is how you do relative to your opponents.

:14:40.:14:44.

In particular so far as Conservative and Labour are concerned, what

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determines the fate is the gap between them. In the 2015 election,

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the Conservatives had a 7-point lead, that only got them a majority

:14:58.:15:01.

of 12, and somebody should have said to the Prime Minister before she

:15:02.:15:05.

pulled the trigger, you do realise you have to be a long way ahead of

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the Labour Party in order to increase your majority. The opinion

:15:10.:15:13.

polls say you are at that point now but if they fall you are in trouble.

:15:14.:15:22.

In the end of the Conservative lead is 2.5 points, which is not enough

:15:23.:15:25.

to secure a majority given that Northern Ireland is out of the

:15:26.:15:31.

frame, Scotland still has a majority of third party MPs, and there are

:15:32.:15:38.

still Liberal Democrats and greens. This now looks like a two party race

:15:39.:15:46.

once again. We have still got much more in the House of Commons than in

:15:47.:15:51.

1970 which makes a hung parliament much more likely. Meanwhile there

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weren't that many marginal seats. It is the relative standing of the

:15:58.:16:02.

parties that's crucial. And how do we explain the 10% rise in Labour's

:16:03.:16:07.

share of the vote? There's a lot of anecdotal evidence of a youth Surge,

:16:08.:16:13.

and I'd like to know if we can nail that down, but also the work of the

:16:14.:16:21.

swings too. Some green voters moved into Labour, some Liberal Democrats,

:16:22.:16:25.

even perhaps some Ukip voters moved into Labour, what do we know? I

:16:26.:16:31.

think we can pick up three crucial patterns. The first is a lot of

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people who at the beginning of the campaign said are usually vote

:16:36.:16:40.

Labour but cannot imagine doing so under Jeremy Corbyn, he so hopeless.

:16:41.:16:44.

Because of his relatively strong performance they came back into the

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fold so by the time we got to polling day there was many 2015

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voters who said they would vote Labour again. That was the crucial

:16:58.:17:01.

point, getting the faithful back on board. It is certainly clear there

:17:02.:17:05.

was a substantial swing to young voters during the campaign. Labour

:17:06.:17:11.

started off well in that group, the opinion polls had it around 65% by

:17:12.:17:17.

the time the election came. We don't know exactly the turnout amongst

:17:18.:17:21.

young people, but certainly the pattern of the results suggests the

:17:22.:17:26.

turnout was going up more in places where there were young people so

:17:27.:17:29.

probably somewhat more of them did turn out to vote. The third crucial

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patent is that this was an election which to some degree voters did

:17:36.:17:40.

polarise around the issue of the shape of Brexit, weather you are a

:17:41.:17:51.

Remain or Leave voter. Labour's progress during the campaign was

:17:52.:17:55.

disproportionately amongst Remain voters so although the parties were

:17:56.:18:00.

not thought to be that far apart on the shape of Brexit, they seem to be

:18:01.:18:05.

sufficiently far apart that Labour was more attractive for those less

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keen on the kind of Brexit Theresa was more attractive for those less

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May had in mind. John Curtice, thank you as always. We are now going

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May had in mind. John Curtice, thank Salford. Graham Brady, you think Mrs

:18:18.:18:29.

May should soldier on, why? There's no other party in a position to form

:18:30.:18:35.

a government. Clearly these aren't the circumstances that either the

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Prime Minister nor I nor my colleagues would want to be dealing

:18:43.:18:45.

with at the moment but this is what we are presented with and it's our

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duty to make the best of it and try to offer government as resilient as

:18:50.:18:56.

it can be an quite difficult times. But is she ever going to be more

:18:57.:19:01.

than a caretaker leader now? I think one of the odd things about the

:19:02.:19:06.

experience of the last 12 months is Theresa May performed well as Prime

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Minister and the public rather liked her as Prime Minister. I think few

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people would say the campaign succeeded in projecting her

:19:15.:19:17.

qualities as strongly as it could and should have done. As we return

:19:18.:19:23.

to government, albeit in difficult circumstances and dependent on

:19:24.:19:26.

support from other parties, I think we will see people once again seeing

:19:27.:19:32.

the steady, calm, thoughtful Theresa May as Prime Minister. Do you fear a

:19:33.:19:38.

leadership election might lead to a second general election, and that

:19:39.:19:44.

prospect terrifies you, doesn't it? I'm not sitting here terrified, but

:19:45.:19:49.

I think there is zero appetite amongst the public for another

:19:50.:19:52.

general election at the moment, and I don't detect any great appetite

:19:53.:19:57.

amongst my colleagues for presenting the public with a massive additional

:19:58.:20:03.

dose of uncertainty by getting involved in a rather self-indulgent

:20:04.:20:07.

Conservative Party internal election campaign. That's because they are

:20:08.:20:10.

frightened they might lose, that's why they don't want another one. I

:20:11.:20:19.

think most of us are motivated by a belief in the national interest and

:20:20.:20:22.

we are responsible people who want to try to offer that responsible,

:20:23.:20:25.

steady government, especially at this point as we know it's just a

:20:26.:20:30.

matter of days until those important negotiations on leaving the European

:20:31.:20:35.

Union begins. It's a time when we need experience and

:20:36.:20:38.

Union begins. It's a time when we it's our duty to try to offer that.

:20:39.:20:45.

Many Tories have said to me that Mrs May must never be allowed to leave

:20:46.:20:48.

your party into another general election, do you agree with that?

:20:49.:20:53.

No, these are judgments that will be made in the fullness of time by the

:20:54.:20:58.

Prime Minister and by colleagues, as is always the case with any Prime

:20:59.:21:02.

Minister and leader of the party, but at the moment we are resolutely

:21:03.:21:06.

focused on trying to make sure the country can have the responsible

:21:07.:21:08.

study government that it really needs at this point, and that should

:21:09.:21:20.

be our focus too. In what way should Mrs May change? I think there are

:21:21.:21:24.

all sorts of lessons we can pick up from the campaign and the reaction

:21:25.:21:28.

to it, even from the thing that surprised most of us, the way in

:21:29.:21:34.

which Jeremy Corbyn, in spite of all of his manifest failings, in

:21:35.:21:37.

particular his extreme political views, was able to present himself

:21:38.:21:43.

in a rather avuncular way. I didn't ask about Mr Corbyn. I'm saying I

:21:44.:21:50.

think there are some lessons there, in terms of relaxing little bit into

:21:51.:21:55.

communicating with the electorate. It is something she does very well

:21:56.:22:02.

in person, increasingly so since she became Prime Minister. That's not

:22:03.:22:06.

the experience of the campaign, the more people saw her the more they

:22:07.:22:10.

didn't like the colour of her gym. It didn't communicating the

:22:11.:22:16.

campaign, but also I think we need to see a much more open and

:22:17.:22:19.

inclusive approach within government, within Parliament as

:22:20.:22:26.

well. That's not just a kind of desirable outcome, which I think

:22:27.:22:30.

always would have been desirable and I've had this conversation with

:22:31.:22:36.

previous prime ministers as well. It's a necessity in the

:22:37.:22:41.

circumstances, trying to make a hung parliament and minority government

:22:42.:22:44.

work really requires a much more inclusive approach. You are being

:22:45.:22:51.

brought into the decision taking process on the deal being done with

:22:52.:22:56.

the DUP? I have said to the Prime Minister I think it is important she

:22:57.:22:59.

speaks to colleagues as soon as possible. I'm hoping to bring it

:23:00.:23:06.

forward to tomorrow so she can talk... But are you being involved

:23:07.:23:13.

in this more inclusive process? I am not on a negotiating team but I saw

:23:14.:23:17.

the Prime Minister very early after the election had taken place, I went

:23:18.:23:22.

to London on Friday afternoon and met with her and we had a discussion

:23:23.:23:25.

about all sorts of things that need to be addressed over the coming days

:23:26.:23:31.

and weeks. When Mrs May spoke in Downing Street after she'd gone to

:23:32.:23:35.

see the Queen, it was another robotic performance. It didn't even

:23:36.:23:39.

express any regrets for the Tories that had lost. You had to into being

:23:40.:23:46.

to get her to make a second statement, didn't you? No, she was

:23:47.:23:51.

already going to give the interview she gave. You urged her to do so.

:23:52.:23:56.

She was already scheduled to give the interview. I happen to see her

:23:57.:24:01.

in between the statement and interview, and I was keen to press

:24:02.:24:04.

home that in the past Conservative Party that has been very poor in its

:24:05.:24:09.

communications with colleagues who have lost their seats in the general

:24:10.:24:13.

election, that is something none of my colleagues likes to see so I

:24:14.:24:17.

certainly did say that I think it's important we do better this time.

:24:18.:24:21.

What bits of the manifesto will you now have to jumk for the Queen 's

:24:22.:24:31.

speech? That will be an interesting process to witness. I don't think it

:24:32.:24:34.

will just be the Queen 's speech, it will be the whole experience of

:24:35.:24:41.

government. There's no point in sailing ahead with items that were

:24:42.:24:45.

in the manifesto which we won't get through Parliament so I think we

:24:46.:24:52.

will have to work very carefully. No doubt we will slim down the Queen's

:24:53.:25:00.

speech. So tell me, which bits will you have to junk? Back to the triple

:25:01.:25:08.

lock on pensioners and no grammar schools? How about that? I would be

:25:09.:25:14.

upset if we couldn't make any progress on allowing people to have

:25:15.:25:16.

a choice of grammar schools if they wanted. Are you hoping they will

:25:17.:25:25.

drop it? If we cannot get things through Parliament, we cannot do

:25:26.:25:29.

them so I certainly would suggest that we can look for instance at a

:25:30.:25:34.

rather modest sort of pilots, opening some state grammar schools

:25:35.:25:38.

in inner urban areas, especially where education at the moment is not

:25:39.:25:42.

offering great opportunities to people of lower income backgrounds.

:25:43.:25:46.

I think that is something that could command quite broad support. I have

:25:47.:25:52.

heard from friends on the Labour ventures quietly that they would

:25:53.:25:56.

like that approach to be taken. We will certainly have to trim our

:25:57.:26:00.

policies carefully according to what we think Parliament will support.

:26:01.:26:05.

Graham Brady in Salford, thank you. Let's go to Nottingham where I am

:26:06.:26:12.

joined by Anna Soubry. In the early hours of Thursday morning you called

:26:13.:26:17.

on Theresa May to consider her position. Is that still your view?

:26:18.:26:21.

Yes, she obviously has considered her position and she is set to go in

:26:22.:26:28.

due course, but I very much agree with Graham, we don't want her to go

:26:29.:26:33.

now. We want a period of stability and she has got to reach out and

:26:34.:26:38.

form a consensus and she has got to form a consensus in particular on

:26:39.:26:44.

Brexit. She has now got to make sure she understands that the British

:26:45.:26:48.

people have rejected a hard Brexit. We are leaving the EU, I don't think

:26:49.:26:53.

there's any change there but we are not going to be leaving the EU in

:26:54.:26:57.

some irresponsible weights that will damage future generations in our

:26:58.:27:00.

country and there's a big lesson to be learned as you've already

:27:01.:27:05.

identified in your programme, about younger people and the message they

:27:06.:27:08.

have sent out in this election. I will come onto Brexit in the moment,

:27:09.:27:13.

but you have said she is set to go in due course, what does that mean?

:27:14.:27:21.

I don't know. After the summer, before the end of the year? I would

:27:22.:27:30.

have thought so. She is flawed, she's in a desperate situation. Her

:27:31.:27:34.

position is untenable and I think she knows that and she is doing the

:27:35.:27:38.

right thing, which is she's got rid of these special advisers, she's

:27:39.:27:42.

brought in Gavin Barwell, and she's listening to people from all parts

:27:43.:27:46.

of not just the party but the country. She has got to reach out

:27:47.:27:51.

more and broaden the base within her Cabinet, and she's got to include

:27:52.:27:55.

people from all parts of my party as well as all points of view across

:27:56.:28:00.

Parliament. So what impact in your view will, as you describe it, Mrs

:28:01.:28:06.

May's much more weakened position, what impact will that have on her

:28:07.:28:11.

current Brexit stance? Will she have to change it and water it down? Yes,

:28:12.:28:19.

absolutely. The country did not vote for a hard Brexit. This is based on

:28:20.:28:23.

my experience of having knocked on the literally thousands of dollars,

:28:24.:28:28.

actually since February. I have listened to a lot of people, and the

:28:29.:28:37.

idea of a hard Brexit, people didn't like that. It's one of the reasons

:28:38.:28:43.

we haven't won this election. They accept we are leaving, I accept it,

:28:44.:28:46.

but we want to get the best deal and she must not turn her back on

:28:47.:28:50.

British business as I'm afraid she has. She's got to listen to British

:28:51.:28:55.

business and Philip Hammond, she's got to listen to Greg Clark. Wise

:28:56.:28:59.

owls who know what British business once and they want that single

:29:00.:29:05.

market and they also wanted proper immigration policy that recognises

:29:06.:29:09.

we need immigrants and free movement in order for British business to

:29:10.:29:10.

continue to flourish. She has to at least listen to these

:29:11.:29:21.

things, and she hasn't in the past. Is that what Ruth Davidson, leader

:29:22.:29:25.

of the Scottish Conservatives, about the only Conservative to emerge with

:29:26.:29:32.

credit on Thursday, is that what she means? We should remain members of

:29:33.:29:35.

the single market, remain in the customs union and put the economy

:29:36.:29:40.

before immigration. Is that what you are talking about? Absolutely. And I

:29:41.:29:45.

always have. And in my literature I made it very clear I would continue

:29:46.:29:49.

to make the case for the single market and positive benefits of

:29:50.:29:53.

immigration. Although my majority was reduced, I put on 1800 more

:29:54.:29:59.

votes. It's not about me, obviously, it's about me being a Conservative,

:30:00.:30:04.

but I made my position clear and I have not faulted on that. Turning

:30:05.:30:07.

our back on the customs union in particular is the stuff of madness.

:30:08.:30:12.

The single market sees off the Nationalists and their desire for a

:30:13.:30:16.

second referendum, although the mighty Ruth Davidson is already done

:30:17.:30:20.

that with her remarkable result in Scotland, but it would also solve

:30:21.:30:25.

the problem with Ireland. Don't you risk reopening all those Tory

:30:26.:30:30.

divisions over Europe on this? I haven't. You have held these views

:30:31.:30:36.

for a long time. There are 20 of other, probably more Tories, who

:30:37.:30:41.

want what you call a hard Brexit. -- plenty of other. It's what the

:30:42.:30:47.

people want. But you don't have a majority. At this election the

:30:48.:30:52.

people have spoken and they have rejected the hard Brexit. I think we

:30:53.:30:55.

can all agree on that. That doesn't mean to say we are not leaving the

:30:56.:31:01.

EU, we will leave the EU, and I believe even people who voted to

:31:02.:31:07.

remain accept we are leaving. I found very few angry Remainers on

:31:08.:31:12.

the doorsteps. People accept the result, but they do not want a hard

:31:13.:31:16.

Brexit. That's the message coming out from this and I hope Theresa May

:31:17.:31:21.

gets that. If she does, then she has to build the con census. There's

:31:22.:31:27.

nothing to stop her working with sensible people in the Labour Party,

:31:28.:31:30.

who also accept the referendum result, no we will be leaving the

:31:31.:31:35.

EU, and know we have to get the best deal, and we can't close our minds

:31:36.:31:39.

on the single market and Customs union. What are the bits of the Tory

:31:40.:31:44.

manifesto you will now have to drop to keep your new bedfellows happy in

:31:45.:31:48.

the DUP? I don't think we have reached a deal yet with the DUP. But

:31:49.:31:54.

that is the aim. Apparently it's the aim. I will tell you now, Andrew,

:31:55.:31:58.

you probably know far more than I do. I get on well with a number of

:31:59.:32:06.

members of the DUP. I don't like a lot of their policies on abortion,

:32:07.:32:11.

gay and lesbian issues, I completely disagree with them, but if we can

:32:12.:32:16.

put those issues aside and put the focus on making a stable government

:32:17.:32:19.

and putting the national interest first, we might well make strides

:32:20.:32:29.

forward. Many people have been talking about public services and

:32:30.:32:36.

public sector pay, but we have to do recognise that at the same time we

:32:37.:32:39.

are going into choppy economic waters, and that's why I think it's

:32:40.:32:44.

so important Theresa May listens to Philip Hammond and puts him much

:32:45.:32:49.

more at the core and front of this government. It's the economy that

:32:50.:32:53.

matters more than anything else. That's one of the spectacular

:32:54.:32:57.

failings of the campaign. The issue that was hardly mentioned during the

:32:58.:33:01.

campaign. Never mentioned it. Anna Soubry, we will leave it there.

:33:02.:33:06.

After Theresa May had been to see the Queen at Buckingham Palace on

:33:07.:33:09.

Friday she made a brief statement on Friday. We can remind ourselves what

:33:10.:33:11.

she said. We will continue to work

:33:12.:33:15.

with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party

:33:16.:33:17.

in particular. Our two parties have enjoyed

:33:18.:33:19.

a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me

:33:20.:33:21.

the confidence to believe that we will be able to work

:33:22.:33:23.

together in the interests This will allow us to come

:33:24.:33:26.

together as a country and channel our energies

:33:27.:33:30.

towards a successful Brexit deal that works

:33:31.:33:35.

for everyone in this country. Securing a new partnership

:33:36.:33:39.

with the EU that guarantees our That's what people voted for last

:33:40.:33:43.

June, that's what we will deliver. I've been joined by

:33:44.:33:48.

the Conservative MP Dominic Raab - a former government minister who's

:33:49.:34:02.

been tipped for a return in Theresa We shall see. Welcome to the

:34:03.:34:13.

programme. Her two most senior advisers have fallen on their

:34:14.:34:16.

swords. Most of the Cabinet has gone to ground since the result. Could

:34:17.:34:21.

Theresa May be any more isolated? I don't think that's true. You have

:34:22.:34:24.

three Cabinet ministers doing television this morning. We are in

:34:25.:34:28.

the middle of a reshuffle, so you wouldn't expect them all to be out

:34:29.:34:31.

on the airwaves, and we also in the business of hammering out the detail

:34:32.:34:34.

on the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. Where are

:34:35.:34:39.

we on that? On the question of Chief of staff, a new appointment has been

:34:40.:34:45.

made, Gavin Barwell, I know him well, a smart policy guide and also

:34:46.:34:49.

very sensitive on the political radar and that shows we are moving

:34:50.:34:54.

forward. It was forced on her. I think they did the honourable thing.

:34:55.:34:58.

The two aids that fell on their sword? Yes. The key point is,

:34:59.:35:06.

looking forward, which we have to do, we had the outcome of the

:35:07.:35:09.

election and the people have spoken and we have to make the best of it.

:35:10.:35:15.

Gavin Barwell is an important appointment. Conservative MPs

:35:16.:35:19.

across-the-board know, respect and trust him. Nobody in the country has

:35:20.:35:22.

heard of him, but maybe that doesn't matter. How many had heard of Nick

:35:23.:35:27.

Timothy and Fiona Hill before they were appointed? They do now. Do you

:35:28.:35:31.

agree with Anna Soubry that Theresa May is no more than a caretaker

:35:32.:35:35.

Prime Minister now? I don't. Emotions are way up. But we still

:35:36.:35:43.

won the most votes and most seats. My reading from talking to MPs

:35:44.:35:48.

across-the-board is the overwhelming majority want to see Theresa May

:35:49.:35:52.

continue in office. As a matter of necessity, the people have spoken,

:35:53.:35:55.

and we have to respect what the people have decided, so we will do

:35:56.:35:59.

this supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. There are

:36:00.:36:02.

strong areas of overlap but we don't agree on everything. The key thing

:36:03.:36:05.

is to give the country certainty and direction moving forward. That's the

:36:06.:36:09.

only viable option and people are rallying behind that. Not all.

:36:10.:36:13.

George Osborne said this morning on the BBC that Mrs May was a dead

:36:14.:36:21.

woman walking. He has made the transition from Conservative MP to

:36:22.:36:26.

mischievous journalist with ease. Most MPs when they listen to that

:36:27.:36:31.

will think it's disloyal, unprofessional and frankly pretty

:36:32.:36:33.

self-indulgent. In reality I think it will shore up support among a lot

:36:34.:36:37.

of MPs for Theresa May. What went wrong? I'm not going to candy coat,

:36:38.:36:44.

sugar-coat the result here. We did far worse than expected and we need

:36:45.:36:50.

to figure out the lessons to learn. I know it went wrong, but why? There

:36:51.:36:56.

isn't anyone thing. You have to take time to learn the lessons. We need

:36:57.:36:59.

to show some humility about the result. Nick Timothy has written a

:37:00.:37:03.

column that touches on some of the issues from his perspective. To be

:37:04.:37:07.

honest with you, I'm focused now, I missed all the drama and

:37:08.:37:11.

disappointment of not getting the result we wanted, focus on the

:37:12.:37:15.

facts. We got 56 more seats than the Labour Party and we are the only

:37:16.:37:18.

ones who can put together a legitimate parliament that can also

:37:19.:37:22.

be affected, passing a judgment and pass legislation, however tricky it

:37:23.:37:26.

may be. That remains to be seen, you might not be able to do that. We are

:37:27.:37:31.

the only ones, with the DUP, who could form a viable and effective

:37:32.:37:34.

government that would reflect legitimately the outcome of the

:37:35.:37:41.

election and we will focus 100% on that. Let's do that. Mrs May

:37:42.:37:43.

promised strength and stability. We now have a hung parliament and she

:37:44.:37:47.

is dependent on the DUP for the slimmest of majorities. There is

:37:48.:37:51.

nothing strong and stable about that. I have said to you, I will not

:37:52.:37:57.

tell you this result is the one we wanted. We are disappointed. It's

:37:58.:38:01.

not strong and stable. It can still be effective. It's also the only

:38:02.:38:06.

outcome that can respect and be legitimate of the outcome of the

:38:07.:38:09.

election. At the end of the day, we had campaigning, we can differ on

:38:10.:38:13.

the opinions, but the facts and parliamentary arithmetic is there.

:38:14.:38:16.

The only way we can have an effective government of any time

:38:17.:38:19.

that Del Paso budget is the Conservatives with the support of

:38:20.:38:24.

the DUP. To do that you'll have to make compromises you would not have

:38:25.:38:28.

to do make if you had won a substantial majority. What part of

:38:29.:38:31.

the manifesto will have to go to get a budget and a confidence motion

:38:32.:38:36.

through? 48 hours after the election I can't answer that definitively.

:38:37.:38:40.

What we do have to do, every MP, whatever part of the country they

:38:41.:38:44.

were elected, has to deliver as best can be manifesto commitments. At the

:38:45.:38:49.

same time, that's what the country expects. At the same time we had

:38:50.:38:52.

forced on us the need to be flexible. The people didn't vote for

:38:53.:38:56.

your manifesto in the end. Something has to go. The triple lock for

:38:57.:39:00.

pensioners that you were going to change, the DUP is in favour of the

:39:01.:39:04.

triple lock. Does that bit of the manifesto go? You can ask me any

:39:05.:39:10.

aspect of the manifesto, we'll know more answers the detail next week.

:39:11.:39:15.

You were on our programmes more than any Cabinet minister. You will be

:39:16.:39:20.

drafted back in. You should know. I don't bet too much money on the

:39:21.:39:26.

tittle tattle in the media. We have the outline of the supply and

:39:27.:39:29.

confidence arrangement with the DUP. We are hammering out the details.

:39:30.:39:33.

Next week we will publish the details. What about social care? You

:39:34.:39:39.

asking me about different points in a manifesto but you know I can't

:39:40.:39:43.

answer that question until... I want to deliver as much of the manifesto

:39:44.:39:47.

as possible. You don't have a mandate to do that. That's because

:39:48.:39:52.

we've got... The Queen's speech is only a week away, a week tomorrow.

:39:53.:39:59.

You are trying to work out what parts, Labour lost, but you didn't

:40:00.:40:03.

win, and I'm trying to work out how you just said we will have to

:40:04.:40:07.

comprise and make changes. It's legitimate to ask which parts... I'm

:40:08.:40:11.

explaining I don't have the answers on the detail because until we have

:40:12.:40:14.

formed the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP, we will

:40:15.:40:19.

not have those details. My starting point is that we deliver as much of

:40:20.:40:22.

the manifesto as we conceivably can. That's what the country expects

:40:23.:40:25.

because that's what they are elected us to do. They have given us their

:40:26.:40:29.

verdict, we need to respect the outcome of the election and we will

:40:30.:40:33.

not do it in the same way will as if we had a stonking majority,

:40:34.:40:37.

obviously. The result has given a kind of new spring in the step of

:40:38.:40:42.

politicians who wanted to remain in the European Union. What do you

:40:43.:40:48.

make, and we heard Anna Soubry, and many others have said it as well,

:40:49.:40:51.

that you need to reconsider your Brexit stands, and in their language

:40:52.:40:57.

community soften your Brexit stands. Whether you are a Scottish, Welsh or

:40:58.:41:01.

English MP, elected to Parliament behind me on the basis of a

:41:02.:41:04.

manifesto that sets out in great detail, a 75 page white Paper, the

:41:05.:41:10.

approach to Brexit. All this talk of hard Brexit, our ambition is to get

:41:11.:41:14.

the best possible deal we can with our EU partners. Do you change your

:41:15.:41:19.

stands because you didn't get a majority for your Brexit position.

:41:20.:41:23.

Do you follow the advice of Ruth Davidson, who talked of an open

:41:24.:41:27.

Brexit, framing a new Brexit strategy? Hard and soft Brexit, I

:41:28.:41:32.

don't know exactly what Ruth means by that. But she did a great job in

:41:33.:41:38.

Scotland. But every MP was elected on our manifesto. We will deliver

:41:39.:41:42.

the plans of that manifesto as best we can, including and especially on

:41:43.:41:46.

Brexit. Just a point of fact, obviously be Conservative number of

:41:47.:41:52.

votes went up, Labour effectively... The vote share went up, but we lost

:41:53.:41:57.

seats, but we are 56 seats ahead of the Labour Party. The Labour Party

:41:58.:42:01.

effectively endorsed the leave the EU strategy we set out and they

:42:02.:42:05.

didn't offer a alternative. So no change on the Brexit strategy? And

:42:06.:42:12.

the anti-Brexit parties, the SNP and Lib Dem, both suffered a fall in

:42:13.:42:16.

their vote share. The country has said they want us to make a success

:42:17.:42:21.

of Brexit. So no change? The plans in the White Paper set out are the

:42:22.:42:26.

right ones and the voters expect us to deliver on the manifesto we ran

:42:27.:42:30.

on, whether you are a Scottish, English or Welsh MP. I can hear your

:42:31.:42:35.

helicopter arriving to whisk you off to the wry ministerial meeting. Let

:42:36.:42:39.

us know what job you get. Viewers in Scotland will leave us for Sunday

:42:40.:42:44.

Politics Scotland now. Jeremy Corbyn...

:42:45.:42:47.

Jeremy Corbyn may have lost the election,

:42:48.:42:49.

but he's clearly cock-a-hoop with the big increase in Labour's

:42:50.:42:51.

share of the vote and the nmber of Labour

:42:52.:42:54.

On Friday he called on Theresa May to resign,

:42:55.:42:57.

and said he was ready to govern the country as a minority

:42:58.:43:00.

Speaking this morning, the Labour leader said he thought there could

:43:01.:43:03.

Speaking this morning, the Labour be another election in the near

:43:04.:43:08.

future. I think it's quite possible that there will be an election later

:43:09.:43:10.

future. I think it's quite possible this year or early next year. And

:43:11.:43:13.

that might be a good thing, because we cannot go on with a period of

:43:14.:43:16.

great instability. We have a we cannot go on with a period of

:43:17.:43:19.

programme, we have the support, and we cannot go on with a period of

:43:20.:43:22.

we are ready to fight another election campaign as soon as may be

:43:23.:43:25.

we are ready to fight another because you want to be able to serve

:43:26.:43:28.

the people of this country on the agenda we put forward, which is

:43:29.:43:31.

transformative, and has gained amazing levels of support. People

:43:32.:43:38.

say, hang on, why are my children worse off than we are, why are my

:43:39.:43:42.

grandchildren? This election wasn't just about Brexit, there was

:43:43.:43:46.

something different about it. It was challenging the economic consensus

:43:47.:43:47.

that has impoverished Sony people. The Labour

:43:48.:43:51.

leader speaking earlier this morning.

:43:52.:43:53.

We've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:43:54.:43:59.

A lot of Labour people have been behaving as if you have won this

:44:00.:44:06.

election, can I point out you have lost three in a row?

:44:07.:44:11.

Yes, but undoubtedly momentum is with us, and momentum is important

:44:12.:44:21.

in politics. It looks like they got the young vote out and that's why

:44:22.:44:25.

you did better-than-expected. The young vote certainly came out for

:44:26.:44:31.

Labour. I found on my part of the world Tory voters switching to

:44:32.:44:35.

Labour over things like the dementia tax, but I also think Ukip

:44:36.:44:43.

supporters voted heavily for Labour because we wanted to invest heavily

:44:44.:44:49.

in the NHS and schools, and people are fed up of cuts to public

:44:50.:44:53.

services and the austerity agenda. So it was a good manifesto? You were

:44:54.:45:01.

happy with it? Yes, I was part of putting it together. You would be

:45:02.:45:06.

happy to fight another election based on that manifesto? Yes, I put

:45:07.:45:10.

together the health section of that manifesto, which gives nurses and

:45:11.:45:15.

midwives of the pay rise, I'm very happy with that manifesto. And yet,

:45:16.:45:20.

you have this manifesto you were happy with, you will rub against a

:45:21.:45:25.

Prime Minister who wanted to fight a personality led presidential

:45:26.:45:28.

campaign, it then turned out the British people didn't think she had

:45:29.:45:32.

much personality and wasn't presidential in nature. You had

:45:33.:45:38.

momentum and you ended up winning no more seats than Gordon Brown in the

:45:39.:45:45.

collection of 2010. Given where we were seven weeks ago, I looked at

:45:46.:45:49.

the opinion polls and thought crikey, this could not be a good

:45:50.:45:55.

result for Labour potentially. Theresa May thought she would have a

:45:56.:45:58.

landslide victory and that's why she put her party first in going for

:45:59.:46:04.

this snap election, and undoubtedly this campaign changed things. I

:46:05.:46:07.

think the key moment was the manifesto week when the Labour Party

:46:08.:46:12.

but forward proposed policies to the country which excited many people,

:46:13.:46:17.

and the Tory party came forward with the dementia tax, getting rid of the

:46:18.:46:20.

winter fuel payment, I think that was a turning point in the election.

:46:21.:46:27.

What does Mr Corbyn do now? When I spoke to Ken Livingstone on Friday

:46:28.:46:31.

he said we did so well on a socialist manifesto, we need more of

:46:32.:46:36.

this. We need more socialism and we will do even better. Is that the

:46:37.:46:42.

lesson Jeremy Corbyn will take or try to reach out more to the centre

:46:43.:46:46.

of his party, now his position is unassailable does he try to reach

:46:47.:46:51.

out beyond his own group? I think there is broad unity and the whole

:46:52.:46:55.

party will come together to take on the Conservatives, who now have a

:46:56.:46:59.

huge problem in Parliament. They can only offer a weak and unstable

:47:00.:47:09.

government. She's trying to cobble together this supply and confidence

:47:10.:47:12.

agreement with the DUP which means all of the decisions in Parliament

:47:13.:47:16.

will be taken on a case-by-case basis. It isn't just the votes on

:47:17.:47:26.

the floor of the House, all of is the statutory instruments will rely

:47:27.:47:29.

on the support of the DUP. She will not be able to guarantee she can get

:47:30.:47:34.

her programme through. We are likely to sue the Government collapse or

:47:35.:47:38.

have a zombie Parliament where we are not debating and voting on

:47:39.:47:41.

legislation because she knows she cannot get it through. If that's the

:47:42.:47:45.

case, even if she puts together a deal with the DUP and it gets off

:47:46.:47:50.

the ground but runs into the kind of difficulties you quite rightly say

:47:51.:47:54.

are possible, and she cannot continue, should Mr Corbyn try to

:47:55.:48:00.

form a minority government? I think so, I think we should try to put our

:48:01.:48:03.

programme of getting rid of tuition fees, investing in the NHS, and ask

:48:04.:48:11.

the other parties to support us. I'm anticipating your next question

:48:12.:48:14.

which is what happens if that doesn't work, well then we are

:48:15.:48:18.

probably heading to another general election at some point. I cannot

:48:19.:48:21.

seem Theresa May surviving as the Prime Minister for the rest of this

:48:22.:48:25.

Parliament for another five days to be frank but who knows. It's likely

:48:26.:48:31.

that you think Mrs May cannot make this work, she can start to make it

:48:32.:48:35.

work but as time goes on it could become more difficult, that Labour

:48:36.:48:39.

could try to form a minority government but given that the

:48:40.:48:42.

Parliamentary arithmetic is not great for her, it is much worse for

:48:43.:48:50.

you, that it may not work? Yes, but you have a responsibility to try and

:48:51.:48:59.

to challenge the other parties to support us honour policies of

:49:00.:49:02.

investing in the NHS, investing in childcare, so that will be a

:49:03.:49:08.

challenge for us but if the Conservatives cannot form a

:49:09.:49:12.

government we would have to take up that responsibility. John McDonnell,

:49:13.:49:16.

the Shadow Chancellor, said to me during the campaign there would be

:49:17.:49:20.

no deals. You don't have to have deals. As I said to him, we have all

:49:21.:49:35.

seen Borgen! They require deals, you have got to give them something. But

:49:36.:49:39.

when you have an minority government, challenging MPs on the

:49:40.:49:47.

other side to support new... My voters in Leicester South were not

:49:48.:49:51.

invited to make a judgment on the DUP manifesto and yet we could have

:49:52.:49:54.

a Conservative government propped up by the time being by the DUP, even

:49:55.:49:59.

though that will have a huge impact on the peace process. I think it is

:50:00.:50:08.

a different arrangement. A minority Labour government wouldn't

:50:09.:50:11.

necessarily rule out getting support from the DUP, they might need it? If

:50:12.:50:17.

they vote for us, everyone will see it because it will be transparent in

:50:18.:50:22.

the way they vote. It does seem we are in for a period of instability

:50:23.:50:27.

in British politics, that is the outcome of this election, and

:50:28.:50:30.

usually when that happens it leads to a second election quite quickly.

:50:31.:50:35.

It could lead to that, and it is ironic given the Tories promised a

:50:36.:50:39.

strong and stable government, and the chaos she warned of is actually

:50:40.:50:44.

chaos in the Tory party, but look at the number of seats in play at the

:50:45.:50:49.

next election now. It will be a Labour Tory stand-off and as a whole

:50:50.:50:52.

range of seats now with Tory majorities of a few hundred which

:50:53.:50:58.

Labour is targeting. Seats which based on the 2015 result we didn't

:50:59.:51:02.

think we could win. And Scotland is in play for Labour again, and it is

:51:03.:51:07.

Scottish MPs sustaining Theresa May in Government at the moment. The

:51:08.:51:12.

message in Scotland will be, if you want a Labour government, both

:51:13.:51:18.

Labour. I bet you never thought you would say that, but let's leave it

:51:19.:51:19.

there. at the beginning of what's likely

:51:20.:51:30.

to be another remarkable And only one thing is certain -

:51:31.:51:34.

the shenanigans over last Thursday's You may still be getting your head

:51:35.:51:39.

around the news about a hung parliament and Theresa May's planned

:51:40.:51:46.

deal with the DUP, We'll find out in a moment,

:51:47.:51:49.

but first let's remind Labour cemented their position

:51:50.:51:52.

as the largest party in Wales gaining 3 seats to give them a total

:51:53.:51:56.

of 28 out of 40. They won those three seats from

:51:57.:51:59.

the Conservatives who still have 8. Plaid Cymru gained Ceredigion

:52:00.:52:05.

to give them 4, while for the first time in more than 150 years,

:52:06.:52:08.

Wales will not be sending a single So much for the seats, but what

:52:09.:52:11.

about the share of the vote? Labour's share was up 12%

:52:12.:52:20.

on two years ago to 48.9%. The Conservatives

:52:21.:52:23.

are second on 33.6. Plaid Cymru moved up into third

:52:24.:52:24.

place though their share was down The LibDems are in fourth,

:52:25.:52:27.

while Ukip's vote collapsed, Here to tell us what they plan to do

:52:28.:52:30.

next are the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies,

:52:31.:52:45.

Welsh Labour's campaign manager and MP for Caerphilly, Wayne David,

:52:46.:52:48.

the former Libdem MP Roger Williams and from Bangor, Plaid Cymru's

:52:49.:52:51.

leader at Westminster, Andrew RT Davis, we see that your

:52:52.:53:07.

share of the vote is up but you lost three MPs. What's your take on what

:53:08.:53:13.

happened? Immensely sorry for the three MPs who lost the ability to go

:53:14.:53:16.

back and represent those constituencies. Take the Gower, we

:53:17.:53:22.

increased our boat by 7% of 4000 votes, but it is a fact for everyone

:53:23.:53:28.

for we were putting on Labour were putting two or three and that's

:53:29.:53:31.

because of the implosion of the Nationalists and the Lib Dems. I

:53:32.:53:35.

want you able to capitalise on that in the way that Labour was? We did

:53:36.:53:41.

to a pond, you just said, we had a 34% share of the overall vote which

:53:42.:53:48.

in 2015, we had 29%, we returned 11 MPs but it's a fact the other

:53:49.:53:52.

parties in this race collapsed and ultimately Labour were the main

:53:53.:53:55.

beneficiaries. On a normal sequence of events if I was sitting here with

:53:56.:54:00.

a 34% sure of the vote in Welsh terms that would be seen as

:54:01.:54:05.

historically important, in Scotland, take the point we are celebrating 30

:54:06.:54:09.

victories, on 30% of the boat, we got 13 MPs come on 30 -- 34% we got

:54:10.:54:17.

eight. What happens next? The has to be a certain amount of

:54:18.:54:20.

responsibility taking, Theresa May didn't need to call the selection

:54:21.:54:23.

and what she has left you with is a mess so what needs to happen? The

:54:24.:54:28.

landscape in London is known and the Prime Minister has gone to the

:54:29.:54:32.

Queen, sought the permission to form a government and that's perfectly

:54:33.:54:36.

legitimate. While it's there to point out... Should she remain as

:54:37.:54:40.

Prime Minister... There to point out that Labour performed better than it

:54:41.:54:43.

not forget Labour are at the point... And we come to that... We

:54:44.:54:49.

aren't the biggest party by about 60 seats, therefore it's incumbent on

:54:50.:54:53.

us to try and form a government to take the country forward. That's

:54:54.:54:57.

what we are doing. Should Theresa May remain as Prime Minister weather

:54:58.:55:02.

amend of this Parliament? She has my support in making sure... For five

:55:03.:55:06.

years? She has my support Mickey Jones she continues his

:55:07.:55:10.

negotiations, given that we are the biggest party in Westminster and

:55:11.:55:13.

it's incumbent on us to form a government. Ultimately, if we do

:55:14.:55:18.

form that government we will offer the solution is that the country

:55:19.:55:22.

needs. Wayne Davis, what do you think should happen? We hear from

:55:23.:55:26.

Jeremy Corbyn this morning most welcoming the idea of an October

:55:27.:55:32.

election, would you support that? I think we are in an extremely

:55:33.:55:36.

difficult position. Theresa May to quote George Osborne this morning is

:55:37.:55:41.

like a dead person walking. And we are going to see an attempt to

:55:42.:55:45.

cobble together some sort of an agreement with the arch

:55:46.:55:48.

reactionaries of British politics, the DUP. I think our job will be to

:55:49.:55:52.

point out the incredible weaknesses that now exist in the government and

:55:53.:55:57.

if there's another election, I would say bring it on and let's get behind

:55:58.:55:59.

Jeremy Corbyn and went that election. It was a successful

:56:00.:56:05.

evening for Labour on two counts, increasing the number of MPs and the

:56:06.:56:08.

largest share of the vote. What's mainly responsible for that? When

:56:09.:56:15.

you saw higher turnout surely that's because of the Jeremy Corbyn factor

:56:16.:56:19.

rather than Carwyn Jones. As your figures have indicated the swing in

:56:20.:56:23.

Wales to Labour was the great -- was greater than the swing in England

:56:24.:56:27.

and they successfully managed to match Jeremy Corbyn's undoubted

:56:28.:56:34.

appeal with Carwyn Jones appeal ahead of Welsh Labour and I think

:56:35.:56:38.

that's a remarkably effective bond which will continue. I those days

:56:39.:56:44.

when we heard MPs like you and others that are sizing Jeremy Corbyn

:56:45.:56:48.

and has policies, his take on pretty much every element of his

:56:49.:56:53.

leadership, I those over? I think we saw a different Jeremy Corbyn to be

:56:54.:56:56.

perfectly honest, it was quite remarkable how he managed to enthuse

:56:57.:56:59.

people and galvanise the support of the country particularly the support

:57:00.:57:03.

of young people and I think because of that he has commanded enormous

:57:04.:57:07.

respect from Labour MPs and the people of this country. Roger, how

:57:08.:57:10.

disappointing is that that for the first time since 1859 won't be

:57:11.:57:14.

liberal voice, if you like, from Wales. We are very disappointed and

:57:15.:57:19.

disappointed that Mark Williams lost Ceredigion. He is Mr Ceredigion to

:57:20.:57:26.

so many people and there are lots of people in the area so disappointed

:57:27.:57:31.

but certainly the traditional Plaid Cymru versus liberal contest was

:57:32.:57:38.

overwhelmed by the Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn issue and that

:57:39.:57:44.

confuse things and allowed... Was drawn for Tim Farron to say

:57:45.:57:47.

absolutely no deal with after the election because it seemed the Lib

:57:48.:57:52.

Dems were pointless. I think he was absolutely right, one of the

:57:53.:57:55.

fighters coming out of the election is that people of the United Kingdom

:57:56.:57:58.

aren't particularly enthused about either Mr macro or Jeremy Corbyn

:57:59.:58:05.

leading this country. And to prop up or support either of those wouldn't

:58:06.:58:08.

be a proper role for the Liberal Democrats but just to say, in the

:58:09.:58:12.

future, yes, we will be willing to work with people if it's in the

:58:13.:58:15.

national interest but at the moment, it isn't. Hannah Williams, would it

:58:16.:58:24.

be fair to say that Plaid Cymru's victory in Ceredigion, in much the

:58:25.:58:27.

same way as last year and Leanne Wood, just one excellent result

:58:28.:58:32.

masks what was otherwise if early dire set of results for Plaid Cymru?

:58:33.:58:45.

It was a UK election. The Labour Party couldn't bring themselves to

:58:46.:58:47.

mention Jeremy Corbyn throughout the campaign. We stayed the same to some

:58:48.:58:54.

extent, my vote in our fun did not change, but what we did see was the

:58:55.:58:58.

collapse of the right-wing British Ukip party and there are votes in

:58:59.:59:05.

this area and elsewhere went to Labour or the Tories, that explains

:59:06.:59:09.

a great deal of what happened. You were within 92 votes of losing your

:59:10.:59:12.

constituency, has it been a point that maybe too much of your party's

:59:13.:59:16.

focus was elsewhere rather than trying to concentrate on where you

:59:17.:59:21.

needed to defend your seats are you had a better chance of gaining

:59:22.:59:25.

seats? We worked very hard in this constituency and in Ceredigion, we

:59:26.:59:31.

also worked hard in the other target constituencies that we had, that is

:59:32.:59:33.

what the people there would expect us to do. In this constituency, as I

:59:34.:59:38.

said, are both remained the same, I think there was 200 difference but

:59:39.:59:43.

Ukip did not stand, two and a half thousand votes for going and they

:59:44.:59:46.

went instead of to the right-wing Conservative Party, they went to the

:59:47.:59:53.

Labour Party. It would be extremely surprising how they voted for me as

:59:54.:59:58.

a left-wing de centralist Ceredigion MP. As that left-wing centralist...

:59:59.:00:07.

I am trying... De centralist... We have heard me Corbyn saying he's

:00:08.:00:15.

going to reach out to the people now as the Plaid Cymru leader in

:00:16.:00:17.

Westminster will you be seeking to in any way you can help me Corbyn's

:00:18.:00:22.

Labour Party to help keep the Conservatives DUP out? We would be

:00:23.:00:26.

very happy to listen to any Progressive party, whichever part of

:00:27.:00:31.

the Labour Party that is. Of course, the Welsh Labour Party have made

:00:32.:00:37.

great play over the distinction from the Labour Party in London. So we'd

:00:38.:00:41.

be very happy to talk to progress people in other parties and

:00:42.:00:47.

certainly... Is that a yes? I am telling you we will listen to what

:00:48.:00:50.

they have to say because we are not interested in a coalition of any

:00:51.:00:54.

sort, I don't think they are either and I should say the Conservative

:00:55.:00:58.

AUP coalition or arrangement fills me with complete dismay. They are an

:00:59.:01:04.

appalling party. On that point, Andrew Arty Davis, how comfortable

:01:05.:01:09.

you feel that what you are going to have now at best, I guess, is a

:01:10.:01:13.

conservative administration, a government, propped up essentially

:01:14.:01:20.

by the DUP. It is for colleagues in London to look at the numbers and

:01:21.:01:23.

see how they can work through this. Ultimately it was talked about this

:01:24.:01:28.

morning that in 2008, for example, Gordon Brown worked with the DUP to

:01:29.:01:32.

bring forward security legislation. But not to rely on them in

:01:33.:01:35.

government for five years? It's about looking at the numbers, that's

:01:36.:01:39.

what democracy is in deciding whether you have the numbers to

:01:40.:01:43.

sustain a majority in the House of Commons and other before colleagues

:01:44.:01:45.

to explore this weekend in the negotiations. What will come of

:01:46.:01:48.

that, obviously, we will learn... What you know there are views on

:01:49.:01:54.

things like gay rights, abortion, allsorts of, I guess, for many

:01:55.:01:58.

people, unpalatable views that they hold. Would that be something you'd

:01:59.:02:02.

be happy with bringing that element and relying on that element? Many of

:02:03.:02:06.

the view is that they hold our polar opposite to the views that I hold, I

:02:07.:02:10.

readily acknowledge that what for agreement can be found, we are not

:02:11.:02:13.

looking at a coalition, we are looking at as I understand it, a

:02:14.:02:17.

confidence and supply arrangement on particular issues, the budget, for

:02:18.:02:20.

example, and other matters that might need to be agreed with to get

:02:21.:02:23.

the votes for the House of Commons. It is not taking a formal coalition

:02:24.:02:27.

and discussing those particular issues, it's more about the big

:02:28.:02:31.

political questions of the David obviously need to command a majority

:02:32.:02:36.

in the House and that is what colleagues will discuss as we go

:02:37.:02:38.

forward. I guess one of the most important of those would be fought

:02:39.:02:43.

would have been EU money and we soared in the Conservative

:02:44.:02:45.

manifesto, there's going to beat this part of money for the poor

:02:46.:02:49.

areas of the UK. Scotland and Ruth Davidson with say we have more

:02:50.:02:52.

Scottish MPs from the Conservatives now, but there are boys listen to,

:02:53.:02:57.

the DUP will certainly make their boys listen to, the danger with

:02:58.:03:00.

Wales is that it will be ignored in sharing out that extra money that we

:03:01.:03:04.

could be expecting from the EU? I disagree with that, the successes

:03:05.:03:08.

that we've had a sludge Conservatives in government, the

:03:09.:03:10.

funding floor put in place recently... But the dynamic is

:03:11.:03:16.

different of government? We have a 12 Conservative MPs up there as well

:03:17.:03:20.

which will be negotiating hard and working hard with colleagues in

:03:21.:03:24.

Westminster to make sure we have a government that can deliver on the

:03:25.:03:27.

priorities the country needs to go forward. It is a fact, Labour Party

:03:28.:03:32.

at the moment after they were in 2010... You don't have any cards to

:03:33.:03:37.

play. We have more MPs and it's incumbent on us as the largest party

:03:38.:03:40.

with an Westminster to form a government and that's what's

:03:41.:03:46.

happening over this weekend. Can I make the point about the situation

:03:47.:03:49.

which is unfolding in my concern is threefold. I'm concerned that the

:03:50.:03:53.

Conservatives may be adopting reactionary social policies which

:03:54.:03:56.

the party has mentioned, I'm concerned about funding because the

:03:57.:04:00.

street unionist will demand a pound of flesh and my concern is that it

:04:01.:04:05.

might be at the expense of Wales but third, I'm also concerned about the

:04:06.:04:11.

peace settlement in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday agreement,

:04:12.:04:14.

absolutely fundamental to that is the Irish government and the British

:04:15.:04:18.

Government being honest brokers and if the DUP are not effectively part

:04:19.:04:22.

of the British Government, that puts a big question over the whole peace

:04:23.:04:27.

process in Northern Ireland, that's found the worrying for assault.

:04:28.:04:30.

Should it be a situation, we seem to remit and today talking about the

:04:31.:04:36.

Queen's Speech, the programme of government there will essentially be

:04:37.:04:40.

a different version, an alternative from Labour. To what extent is it

:04:41.:04:44.

incumbent on Jeremy Corbyn to reach out to people like the Lib Dems and

:04:45.:04:48.

Plaid Cymru so they can get the broadest possible level of support?

:04:49.:04:55.

-- worrying for us all. The emphasis will be on the other parties at the

:04:56.:05:00.

same time to call operator and be constructive but I think the crucial

:05:01.:05:04.

thing is the leadership of the country and Theresa May

:05:05.:05:06.

unfortunately is not in a position to provide effective and strong

:05:07.:05:10.

leadership. I fear that will become increasingly apparent in the next

:05:11.:05:13.

weeks and months if she survives that long and adventure in the

:05:14.:05:17.

Corbyn, the onus is on him and I think you will rise to the occasion,

:05:18.:05:21.

to become the Prime Minister in waiting. Roger Williams, when we

:05:22.:05:25.

talk about progressive parties coming together how much of an

:05:26.:05:30.

emphasis do you think needs to be on the 12, 13 Lib Dem MPs to try and

:05:31.:05:35.

work with Labour and other parties? We must make an assessment really of

:05:36.:05:41.

the proposals put forward by the liberal party. During the election

:05:42.:05:44.

campaign we were very concerned about the rash, we think, promises

:05:45.:05:49.

that were made in terms of finance and how they would be put in place

:05:50.:05:55.

in... Is that a no? No, I think we shall see the Labour Party modifying

:05:56.:06:00.

its approach, being more realistic is the time goes on. And during that

:06:01.:06:06.

time no coalition, no agreement but seeing whether we can work with

:06:07.:06:08.

those progressive parties in some sort of an alliance? Andrew Art tee

:06:09.:06:15.

Davis, one of the issues during the campaign in Wales was a lack of

:06:16.:06:19.

clear leadership, we saw in TV debates it was always Carwyn Jones,

:06:20.:06:24.

with the Tories it was sometimes you, once it was you, once it was

:06:25.:06:28.

Alan Kearns and once it was Darren Millar because you couldn't come to

:06:29.:06:32.

an agreement so what went wrong and who has to take responsible at the?

:06:33.:06:36.

I agree with you entirely, we have a strong, distinct Welsh Conservative

:06:37.:06:40.

round but we need to be able to make a political decisions here in Wales

:06:41.:06:46.

and have... So you are... Let me get to the first point, we have a

:06:47.:06:50.

designated leader here in Wales similar to what Labour formalised in

:06:51.:06:54.

March and I readily acknowledge that, the moment what happens is in

:06:55.:06:59.

default aspects I lead on devolution, on secondary estate

:07:00.:07:02.

aspects such as Westminster, the Secretary of State Leeds and the

:07:03.:07:06.

chairman of the voluntary party obviously leads on voluntary

:07:07.:07:09.

party... So who should lead? That's a discussion for the party but I

:07:10.:07:14.

think Scotland has a very good model which has shown to be successful...

:07:15.:07:19.

Sorry to interrupt but Ruth Davidson is the leader in Scotland, there is

:07:20.:07:24.

no discussion on that so if that's a good model then it should be due as

:07:25.:07:29.

leader? These are discussions to be had as we go forward, we are only 72

:07:30.:07:34.

hours after the close of poll but there is a deficiency in the ability

:07:35.:07:40.

to make a decision is from a party prospective and I do acknowledge

:07:41.:07:43.

that, there's no point denying it. What we are looking at is making

:07:44.:07:48.

sure we reflect on the solid 34% of the vote we achieved on Thursday

:07:49.:07:52.

night, we also reflect and support sadly colleagues who did not make it

:07:53.:07:56.

back to Westminster and candidates and activists who work tirelessly

:07:57.:07:59.

but let's not forget, there is a huge job offer to be done as we go

:08:00.:08:03.

forward as a country, Conservative Party is the largest party in

:08:04.:08:10.

Westminster and it's incumbent we make an effort to form a government.

:08:11.:08:14.

Why would you go on holiday during the course of a campaign? I was

:08:15.:08:22.

celebrating my wedding anniversary. One moment, Hannah Williams, we have

:08:23.:08:28.

heard Leanne Wood saying there needs to be a period of reflection, saying

:08:29.:08:38.

that the needs to be and what needs to change for Plaid Cymru, you want

:08:39.:08:44.

Ceredigion but it's been, last year, you are stagnating in terms of your

:08:45.:08:48.

ability to reach out to beyond your heart and, perhaps? Any reasonable

:08:49.:08:57.

and live a little party will reassess its course continually and

:08:58.:09:00.

we of course will do that. Does anything need to change? Obviously

:09:01.:09:06.

we would like to win and what ever we need to do to change within the

:09:07.:09:08.

principles that we have set out before the selection, we will

:09:09.:09:15.

proceed. Like what, for work the witnesses? It's very clear what we

:09:16.:09:19.

need to succeed and that is the line that we will be giving to any

:09:20.:09:22.

progressive party that wants to talk to us, which is defending the

:09:23.:09:27.

200,000 or so jobs in Wales which depend on European Union, the moment

:09:28.:09:32.

defending farming and also ensuring our universities get academics and

:09:33.:09:39.

staff from European universities coming over here, students coming

:09:40.:09:43.

over, our agenda is Jimmy clear and we have been consistently sold

:09:44.:09:46.

throughout this election whilst other parties, if I may say so, have

:09:47.:09:51.

bent with the wind, either doing a U-turn on something like social care

:09:52.:09:55.

or suddenly finding a profound love for Jeremy Corbyn when they couldn't

:09:56.:09:59.

even come to mention him previously. On that point the Brexit, the tax

:10:00.:10:07.

that Theresa May surely has to take, she surely has to change, the

:10:08.:10:11.

situation that she had, she had a majority, it was always going to be

:10:12.:10:15.

difficult, she wanted to strengthen her hand, her hand is infinitely

:10:16.:10:19.

weaker, she will have to change your view and how she goes about

:10:20.:10:24.

negotiations? Those conversations that are being undertaken as the

:10:25.:10:28.

supply and confidence arrangement is discussed going forward to see

:10:29.:10:31.

whether the government can get its business through the House of

:10:32.:10:34.

Commons but it is a fact we know the stopwatch has started because

:10:35.:10:37.

Article 50 was triggered at the end of March. Let's not forget that last

:10:38.:10:42.

June the referendum here in Wales here given instruction to the

:10:43.:10:44.

government that we needed to rebalance this relationship with

:10:45.:10:48.

Europe, Wales voted out on these negotiations are about finding an

:10:49.:10:52.

accommodation, agreement, arrangement that reflects that

:10:53.:10:57.

referendum result. Thank you so much all of you for coming in. I'm sure

:10:58.:11:01.

we have further discussions about many things over the next few weeks.

:11:02.:11:04.

A lot has been said since Thursday about turnout, well turnout

:11:05.:11:06.

in Wales and across the UK is at its highest since 1997.

:11:07.:11:09.

Some say much of that is down to a surge in mainly

:11:10.:11:12.

Here in Wales, Merthyr saw the highest percentage increase

:11:13.:11:15.

in turnout this time, so we sent our reporter Bethan Lewis

:11:16.:11:18.

A post-election haircut at Merthyr's College salon, there's not much talk

:11:19.:11:36.

of Theresa May troubles here, it's a chance to escape college but student

:11:37.:11:41.

her dresser Emma Majors she voted on Thursday. It's the first time I felt

:11:42.:11:46.

I had to vote. Did you have to vote -- think about whether you were

:11:47.:11:50.

going to vote? I had to think about who I was going to pick and when I

:11:51.:11:54.

sat down and spoke with my family, we wanted to make a decision

:11:55.:11:57.

together, now I'm getting older I think it's quite important for us to

:11:58.:12:03.

actually start voting and things because it's our future at the end

:12:04.:12:06.

of the day but some people they don't want to vote. I don't know

:12:07.:12:12.

why. I think there are more people who voted this time because they

:12:13.:12:18.

want Labour in. To help, I suppose, the NHS and the education. Devolved

:12:19.:12:23.

issues but ones that seem to have cut through, across the college

:12:24.:12:26.

they've been trying to get the students engaged in the election and

:12:27.:12:31.

weaving it into lessons. Including reading the party manifestoes in

:12:32.:12:35.

English classes. We looked at some of the language, the language and

:12:36.:12:40.

power, the propaganda. Do you think reading the manifestoes was more

:12:41.:12:43.

likely to make them want to vote? Yes. No, absolutely, there was such

:12:44.:12:50.

a huge focus on tuition fees and issues that they related to stop its

:12:51.:12:56.

not just reading a piece of paper, reading a document it's helped us

:12:57.:13:00.

impact them and their lies and that's how you get passion within

:13:01.:13:04.

learners. Turnout in birth was up seven and a half percent on the 2015

:13:05.:13:11.

general election to over 60% but that's still significantly lower

:13:12.:13:15.

than the all Wales figure and still amongst the low as ten Wales but

:13:16.:13:19.

they are happy here that there has been progress. And for election

:13:20.:13:26.

watchers to it's encouraging. We are really encouraged to see the turnout

:13:27.:13:32.

across Wales increasing by 3%, something that wasn't necessarily

:13:33.:13:34.

expected and it's definitely a really good result. While it's not

:13:35.:13:39.

as high as the EU referendum turnout last year it is the highest it's

:13:40.:13:45.

been since 97 and 40 weekend get early indications on so far is there

:13:46.:13:49.

is potential for the youth vote to increase which will have had a

:13:50.:13:53.

substantial impact. And from a geography A-level exam the students

:13:54.:13:55.

were adamant they wanted their voice to be heard. I thought it was more

:13:56.:14:02.

aimed at younger people to vote, to get our voices heard. This is not

:14:03.:14:08.

only an election about tuition fees which is here important but also an

:14:09.:14:13.

election about Brexit. I think all of my friends particularly on

:14:14.:14:18.

Facebook, I think, pretty much all of my friends voted. In this

:14:19.:14:21.

election Labour strengthened its grip on the seat with the incumbent

:14:22.:14:28.

Gerald Jones taking 60% -- six to 7% of the vote, though turnout was up,

:14:29.:14:33.

40% of people still didn't cast a ballot. You weren't more interested

:14:34.:14:42.

in this election? No. This year, I didn't vote, I don't like to.

:14:43.:14:46.

There's not much to vote for, is there? There's no decency in it. The

:14:47.:14:55.

majority of people I know who went up there, they listen to what was

:14:56.:14:59.

going on on Facebook and Twitter and everything, Jeremy Corbyn has spoken

:15:00.:15:03.

for the young people, I mean, last year when it was all Brexit and

:15:04.:15:08.

during that, I didn't know what was going on, I didn't understand it,

:15:09.:15:11.

didn't want to vote because they didn't want to vote the wrong way

:15:12.:15:14.

because if I voted on something I didn't understand and it ended up

:15:15.:15:18.

worse off, I would feel bad about it but this time, it's been like,

:15:19.:15:24.

Jeremy Corbyn, he's the man! At the moment the information about who

:15:25.:15:27.

voted and why is mainly anecdotal, there will be more data in weeks to

:15:28.:15:32.

come. After an election that's stumped politicians and voters

:15:33.:15:33.

alike. Here to tell me exactly

:15:34.:15:35.

what's going to happen next are Dr Sam Blaxland

:15:36.:15:39.

from Swansea University and the political consultant

:15:40.:15:41.

Valerie Livingston... Yes, for two-week old next in 30

:15:42.:15:57.

seconds? Let's look at the campaign, where did it go wrong, Valerie, for

:15:58.:16:01.

the Conservatives? I don't know that much did wrong with the Conservative

:16:02.:16:05.

campaign, in a sense they got out the vote, the problem was they

:16:06.:16:08.

underestimated the Labour vote and they didn't react to the changing

:16:09.:16:14.

campaign dynamic. There were charges against Theresa May, she didn't

:16:15.:16:17.

respond to them and I think that's why we are now in the position we

:16:18.:16:22.

are, her approval ratings are through the floor. Some, that was

:16:23.:16:26.

the problem, they had a presidential campaign but Theresa May doesn't

:16:27.:16:31.

really strike you as the outgoing, effervescent presidential kind of

:16:32.:16:34.

candidate needed for that? And to echo for Valerie said but also what

:16:35.:16:39.

Andrew said in the last piece, the Conservatives didn't have a bad day,

:16:40.:16:47.

over 53% of the vote, in 1997 they would have killed for that, it

:16:48.:16:50.

wasn't a bad day for that it was a much better day for the Labour

:16:51.:16:54.

Party. The presidential aspect of it clearly was a problem come off when

:16:55.:16:58.

I was last on here was a pulse which came out saying the Conservatives

:16:59.:17:01.

were on track to be the biggest party in Wales, I don't think that

:17:02.:17:06.

was a fluke, there was a law to be said for it, the support base was

:17:07.:17:08.

there it was the fact that the Conservatives had a terrible

:17:09.:17:13.

campaign and Labour had a particularly good one. Theresa May,

:17:14.:17:18.

spoke to the electorate in a patronising manner to be frank and

:17:19.:17:20.

Jeremy Corbyn spoke to them directly, even if you don't agree

:17:21.:17:25.

with many of his policies and the costs, he speaks of rhetoric with

:17:26.:17:30.

hope which is engaging. Is there an element here that we shouldn't pay

:17:31.:17:38.

so much attention or heed to polling and a campaign, the likes of which

:17:39.:17:41.

Jeremy Corbyn set out over the last three weeks can be successful

:17:42.:17:45.

because what he did was address rallies of thousands of thousands of

:17:46.:17:49.

people and they are all Labour supporters, they are not going to

:17:50.:17:52.

win the centre ground, that's out the window, isn't it? We saw those

:17:53.:17:57.

rallies but there was also another Labour campaign going on and there

:17:58.:18:00.

are interesting reports on the Sunday newspapers about peer-to-peer

:18:01.:18:05.

social media sharing that was going on, Labour were targeting their

:18:06.:18:08.

voters through the medium that the voters were comfortable with, not

:18:09.:18:12.

hearing messages on the front pages of the newspapers, they were getting

:18:13.:18:15.

them direct from their friends on the phones. They weren't even

:18:16.:18:19.

watching us, imagine. Does that mean there needs to be a change in future

:18:20.:18:23.

in terms of how campaigns are run, we've heard so many times this will

:18:24.:18:28.

be the social media, this will be the online campaign, has it finally

:18:29.:18:32.

crossed over into that being a reality? I think it's been a gradual

:18:33.:18:37.

evolution, we seem social media player role in political campaigning

:18:38.:18:40.

for over ten years, the American election it plays a significant role

:18:41.:18:44.

there. As the polls I don't think we can discount them all together but I

:18:45.:18:48.

think we might need to be a little bit more cynical and question their

:18:49.:18:51.

methods to make sure we take the results with a pinch of salt. Sam,

:18:52.:18:55.

in Wales, one of the things that struck me looking at the numbers was

:18:56.:18:59.

the dominance of Labour plus the Conservative, it was over 82, 83% of

:19:00.:19:04.

the share, but those two Michael Paterson, the highest since 1966. --

:19:05.:19:12.

the highest of those two parties. Have they squeezed the smaller

:19:13.:19:15.

parties? Perhaps but it's the reason the Conservatives did badly, the

:19:16.:19:19.

fact the small parties have been squeezed, there is no Lib Dem MP

:19:20.:19:25.

here is very significant. Thinking this morning, 1859, there has been a

:19:26.:19:30.

Liberal MP even though Lib Dems are not liberals, levodopa, Lloyd

:19:31.:19:36.

George, Wales has been the party of some prominent liberal types so that

:19:37.:19:40.

significant. But Plaid Cymru, this is indicative of the strange way

:19:41.:19:44.

that first past the post works, Plaid Cymru de Necib but lose in the

:19:45.:19:49.

proportion of their vote but at the end of the day it's judged by seats,

:19:50.:19:53.

which is and has ramifications and an impact for party politics. What

:19:54.:20:00.

did that mean for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats and Ukip,

:20:01.:20:03.

smaller parties who felt the squeezed a such an extent, yes Plaid

:20:04.:20:08.

Cymru one Ceredigion but otherwise party share was down everywhere.

:20:09.:20:13.

What do they need to do to react? I think they need to find a way to

:20:14.:20:17.

make themselves relevant through the whole parliament, a few votes can

:20:18.:20:21.

make the difference. Now is the time for party discipline, they need to

:20:22.:20:25.

decide what the goals are over this parliament however long it lasts and

:20:26.:20:28.

pursue them ruthlessly. I was expecting something like that from

:20:29.:20:32.

Hannah Williams but he seemed more measured, a lot less keen to say we

:20:33.:20:37.

are going to go in and these are our demands and we have these things

:20:38.:20:41.

about devolution and 74 and Harold Wilson and all that kind of thing, a

:20:42.:20:43.

lot more measured. Was that surprising? Maybe he doesn't want to

:20:44.:20:49.

be seen as opportunistic, picking political capital out of a crisis

:20:50.:20:53.

but as the last piece covered there are gains to be made and it's up to

:20:54.:20:59.

Welsh MPs and even the Welsh government to start putting pressure

:21:00.:21:02.

on the UK Government at this times when it really has to grant

:21:03.:21:06.

concessions to get its programme across. Sam you spent a lot of time

:21:07.:21:09.

studying the history of the Conservatives in Wales, this

:21:10.:21:14.

situation they find themselves in now, having to rely on the DUP

:21:15.:21:18.

what's the danger for the Conservatives? Could it read toxic

:21:19.:21:22.

fight the Conservative brand, do you think? Yes, I did a lot by research

:21:23.:21:28.

on the long, hard slog of the Conservative Party pigeon to

:21:29.:21:32.

detoxify themselves in Wales, they were for ever at the party in terms

:21:33.:21:36.

of having perceived as the party of the landed Squires and through a

:21:37.:21:40.

long process they managed to distance themselves from that. There

:21:41.:21:44.

are elements of the DUP politics which are lying with the current

:21:45.:21:49.

bothering Conservative Party but for bubbly more of its right-wing side

:21:50.:21:54.

and faction. There is potentially that problem but ultimately the

:21:55.:21:57.

arithmetic says it's the only way they can go, I think. How

:21:58.:22:02.

long-lasting can that be, will it last five years? Does anyone really

:22:03.:22:06.

think that? The Prime Minister will not last pipe bombs I imagine and

:22:07.:22:10.

this Parliament is going to be short-lived as well. But the

:22:11.:22:13.

Conservatives want to go into another election has reports in the

:22:14.:22:16.

Sunday papers that Labour feels the momentum is with them and they would

:22:17.:22:22.

fear going to the country again for all kinds of reasons. It's a mess

:22:23.:22:26.

extra mission mark do you think that? Theresa May won't last more

:22:27.:22:31.

than five months, until the end of the year? I would give her a little

:22:32.:22:36.

longer, I suspect the Conservative Party will let her progress with

:22:37.:22:39.

Brexit negotiations, WADA said dirty job and most Conservative

:22:40.:22:44.

politicians don't want to be seen as the face of Brexit because

:22:45.:22:46.

politically it will be difficult but as we progress through that we might

:22:47.:22:51.

find the knives, for Theresa May. I think an election next year. It

:22:52.:22:55.

might just be me who sends this when she was going into Downing Street

:22:56.:22:58.

and felt like a speech she made, the way she did it was as if she was

:22:59.:23:03.

putting into motion the handover of power. In slow motion, not doing an

:23:04.:23:07.

Ed Miliband, cutting and running leaving everyone in chaos but I

:23:08.:23:12.

would assume discussions will be happening very soon about how she

:23:13.:23:14.

slowly transitions to another leader but I have no insight into the

:23:15.:23:19.

corridors of power. Valery, the point you made, there is Brexit,

:23:20.:23:25.

time and again we heard during this campaign, the discussions start in a

:23:26.:23:30.

week. That is still happening, how does that change the dynamic, in

:23:31.:23:34.

terms of forming a government, Theresa May as Prime Minister, it

:23:35.:23:39.

buys her time but whenever there is a change of Prime Minister it's

:23:40.:23:43.

always going to cause a hell of a lot of confusion with race

:23:44.:23:46.

discussions? It makes things hugely difficult, the matter what side of

:23:47.:23:55.

the political divide you are wrong, -- you are on... What I would say

:23:56.:23:59.

about the DUP, their position on Brexit is interesting and different

:24:00.:24:01.

to some of the Conservative politicians. Perhaps having the DUP

:24:02.:24:09.

there to deal with one of the great unanswered issues about leaving the

:24:10.:24:13.

European Union which has the border with Ireland might even add a useful

:24:14.:24:18.

flavour to it. It also means I guess, if you have the DUP not

:24:19.:24:21.

calling the shots but contributing to things, they won't allow Theresa

:24:22.:24:25.

May to have no deal because that would mean having to have that hard

:24:26.:24:31.

border with Ireland so went Theresa May says no deal is better than a

:24:32.:24:34.

bad deal the DUP are going to say, no, no, that is not the case. Does

:24:35.:24:39.

it change how she will have to approach the Brexit discussions?

:24:40.:24:43.

Certainly it places constraints on how she can take the negotiations

:24:44.:24:48.

forward, the DUP have set out their stands on how they want the Irish

:24:49.:24:50.

border to operate and I would imagine that will be a red line for

:24:51.:24:53.

them in any agreement they reach with Theresa May. But minority

:24:54.:24:57.

governments don't need to be a disaster, it is workable, we've seen

:24:58.:25:02.

the SNP lead two minority governments in Scotland but for me

:25:03.:25:07.

the big question is three Brexit, so complex politically, it's an stable

:25:08.:25:10.

and an uncertain arrangement. The point I was trying to make, the

:25:11.:25:16.

panel earlier, that issue of money, because the DUP will want a certain

:25:17.:25:20.

amount of yes, please, thank you and when we have the money that would

:25:21.:25:24.

have gone to the EU it is going to go into a fund that the

:25:25.:25:27.

Conservatives have, Scotland will make their voice heard, the DUP will

:25:28.:25:32.

make sure its voice heard, is there at this danger that Wales is

:25:33.:25:36.

ignored? The DUP might want a lot of supply for their confidence. There

:25:37.:25:41.

is the potential that Wales is ignored and Welsh politics is always

:25:42.:25:45.

aligned, if you like, two English politics more so than Scottish and

:25:46.:25:49.

Northern Irish politics. There's a danger that Wales sits on the

:25:50.:25:51.

sidelines but were discussing, there is the Welsh government's role in

:25:52.:25:56.

this as well and they will have to be part of discussions because a lot

:25:57.:26:02.

of devolved issues in Wales is for European money goes into. Carwyn

:26:03.:26:07.

Jones has tried to make the point and make his voice heard, making it

:26:08.:26:12.

heard will be more difficult. He can't be reactive this time because

:26:13.:26:16.

the situation changes too quickly so instead of waiting to be invited to

:26:17.:26:19.

the table and be annoyed when he isn't, he needs to push for that

:26:20.:26:23.

now. It's not about the MPs to campaign for that money it's down to

:26:24.:26:28.

the Welsh government. They have this paper last year along with Plaid

:26:29.:26:30.

Cymru, they've made known their views, to Fort extent now do you

:26:31.:26:36.

think because the dynamic has changed in Westminster, it's going

:26:37.:26:39.

to be difficult for Carwyn Jones and the Welsh government? Yes, it will

:26:40.:26:43.

be difficult and there is also the point to add, regardless of us much

:26:44.:26:49.

less stable Westminster government, Wales still voted to leave the

:26:50.:26:54.

European Union, 52-48 proportions. That needs to be taken into account

:26:55.:26:59.

but the election wasn't just a rerun of the referendum which makes

:27:00.:27:03.

everything thrown up in the air and it doesn't line up neatly. Thank you

:27:04.:27:05.

both so much. That's it from the Sunday

:27:06.:27:07.

Politics for today. What kind of political landscape

:27:08.:27:09.

will we be talking about next week? There's only one way

:27:10.:27:12.

to find out of course - Now I suggest you all go and lie

:27:13.:27:14.

down in a darkened room and prepare If you can't do that,

:27:15.:27:19.

then you've always got our feed on Twitter to keep you company

:27:20.:27:23.

- we're @walespolitics. But that's all from this

:27:24.:27:26.

week - diolch am wylio,

:27:27.:27:29.

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