16/07/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


16/07/2017

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones are joined by Liam Fox and Rebecca Long-Bailey. Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards are on the political panel.


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Transcript


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

With Cabinet divisions over Brexit, spending and leadership spilling

:00:41.:00:43.

onto the front pages, we'll be talking to international

:00:44.:00:46.

trade secretary Liam Fox about Britain's future

:00:47.:00:48.

Jeremy Corbyn's been to Brussels to set out

:00:49.:00:56.

Labour's vision for Brexit - but with the party suffering its own

:00:57.:00:59.

divisions on Europe, are they being entirely clear

:01:00.:01:01.

And as Ukip searches for another leader, will taking an even more

:01:02.:01:05.

hard-line stance on Islam make the party relevant again,

:01:06.:01:07.

If Ukip goes down the route of being a party that is anti

:01:08.:01:15.

the religion of Islam, frankly it's finished.

:01:16.:01:24.

Carwyn Jones on what he calls the Brexit power grab.

:01:25.:01:28.

Are we really heading for a constitutional crisis?

:01:29.:01:30.

And who's been serving political aces?

:01:31.:01:32.

Yes, all of that to come, and I'm joined for all of it

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by three journalists whose every word is as closely followed

:01:47.:01:49.

And much like the Liberal Democrat leadership contest, they've

:01:50.:01:52.

won their place on the panel because no-one else wanted the job.

:01:53.:01:57.

It's Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn.

:01:58.:02:07.

First today, for a supposedly private gathering, the meeting

:02:08.:02:09.

of the Cabinet on Tuesday has generated rather a lot of headlines,

:02:10.:02:12.

most of them featuring Chancellor Philip Hammond.

:02:13.:02:14.

Yesterday there were disputed claims in the Sun over what he may or may

:02:15.:02:18.

not have said about women driving trains, and today the Sunday Times

:02:19.:02:22.

says colleagues picked him up for describing public sector workers

:02:23.:02:26.

as overpaid, although some dispute that version of events.

:02:27.:02:29.

Well, Mr Hammond was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning,

:02:30.:02:31.

and he took the unusual step of suggesting that the source

:02:32.:02:34.

of the stories may be people unhappy at his position over Brexit.

:02:35.:02:40.

If you want my opinion, some of the noise is generated by people

:02:41.:02:43.

who are not happy with the agenda that I have,

:02:44.:02:46.

tried to advance of ensuring that we achieve a Brexit

:02:47.:02:55.

which is focused on protecting our economy, protecting

:02:56.:02:59.

our jobs, and making sure we can have continued rising living

:03:00.:03:02.

So what do you make of that, Isabel? The Chancellor thinks he's being

:03:03.:03:15.

undermined by Cabinet colleagues who don't trust him on Brexit. That's

:03:16.:03:19.

quite remarkable to say that in public. I also think it's completely

:03:20.:03:26.

true. That's the least controversial part of it! The briefing is his

:03:27.:03:33.

position on Brexit and also frustration on his position over

:03:34.:03:35.

public sector pay then it is over any kind of leadership manoeuvrings.

:03:36.:03:41.

We saw on the Andrew Marr Show that he was doubling down on the issue of

:03:42.:03:47.

public sector pay rises. He didn't categorically deny using the words

:03:48.:03:51.

of overpaid, in fact he reiterated the fact he sees them as whether

:03:52.:03:57.

they are overpaid or not so I believe he did use that phrase but

:03:58.:04:00.

clearly he's got the tone wrong and I don't think he's done himself any

:04:01.:04:06.

favours. He's a pretty wealthy man himself, multimillionaire. He must

:04:07.:04:13.

have some kind of political deafness if he thinks it's OK for someone in

:04:14.:04:19.

his position to say, in a number of cases, lowly paid public sector

:04:20.:04:24.

workers are overpaid? I think he is politically deaf, and not

:04:25.:04:28.

emotionally intelligent. He has a great head for figures but very poor

:04:29.:04:40.

at expressing himself. It was a crass remark over women train

:04:41.:04:53.

drivers. He may be in the right place on some arguments, he's just

:04:54.:04:58.

extremely poor at expressing and that's what gives his opponents the

:04:59.:05:02.

chance to rip his head off. He should have worked out by now that

:05:03.:05:08.

it is clear whatever... Because of the dim munition of Mrs May's

:05:09.:05:11.

authority that whatever you see in the Cabinet now is likely to become

:05:12.:05:17.

public in some shape or form. I think this is the profound lesson of

:05:18.:05:21.

the story, that Cabinet discussion is almost impossible now, and

:05:22.:05:27.

Hammond will go away this summer thinking I can't engage in a proper

:05:28.:05:31.

debate in Cabinet because they will leak it. It sounds as if they were

:05:32.:05:35.

having quite a grown-up conversation about public sector pay with a

:05:36.:05:38.

spending department ministers putting the case for breaking the

:05:39.:05:42.

cup and Hammond saying from the Treasury perspective this is what's

:05:43.:05:46.

happening. Which is what normally happens in Cabinet. He would hope

:05:47.:05:52.

so, not any more. He won't be able to speak his mind in Cabinet because

:05:53.:05:56.

he knows it will be leaked and that is another sign of fragility of this

:05:57.:06:00.

Government, when you cannot have a grown-up discussion about public

:06:01.:06:05.

sector pay even in Cabinet, and that means Cabinet discussion which is

:06:06.:06:08.

urgently needed on Brexit and the rest of it cannot happen in an open

:06:09.:06:14.

way because leaking is happening. Mrs May is not exactly top of the

:06:15.:06:18.

Pops with her own party at the moment but doesn't help her in the

:06:19.:06:24.

fact that her Chancellor is even less top of the Pops? The key thing

:06:25.:06:28.

is that backbenchers don't want a leadership contest at the moment.

:06:29.:06:33.

There are a number of Cabinet ministers or more senior figures who

:06:34.:06:37.

have been around longer who may feel this is their last chance of the

:06:38.:06:41.

leadership and they are urgently wanting it happen now. Backbenchers

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don't want it, I don't think it will happen. Will it happen? I don't

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think it will. There are egos clashing in the Cabinet and also

:06:54.:07:00.

many who just want things to stay the way they are, so they will. We

:07:01.:07:03.

will talk more about this leadership matter later in the programme, but

:07:04.:07:04.

let's move on. This week the government passed

:07:05.:07:06.

another Brexit milestone when in introduced the Repeal Bill

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to the Commons. It will incorporate all EU law

:07:09.:07:10.

into the UK's domestic And although a vote on the Bill

:07:11.:07:12.

isn't due until the autumn, the government still has plenty

:07:13.:07:16.

on its plate when it Brexit secretary David Davis

:07:17.:07:18.

and the EU's negotiator Michel Barnier will sit down

:07:19.:07:21.

for another helping of Brexit negotiations in Brussels

:07:22.:07:23.

this week. Progress now needs to be made

:07:24.:07:25.

on some big questions. They include: the rights of EU

:07:26.:07:29.

citizens living here, How to maintain an open border

:07:30.:07:31.

between Northern Ireland And the size of the financial

:07:32.:07:38.

settlement or so-called divorce bill Previous estimates have included a

:07:39.:07:43.

figure of The British government has put no

:07:44.:07:50.

figure on it, simply saying it This week, Foreign Secretary

:07:51.:07:56.

Boris Johnson said the EU could "go whistle" if it was

:07:57.:08:02.

expecting an extortionate fee Brussels wants this set

:08:03.:08:04.

of negotiations focusing on the principles of separation

:08:05.:08:17.

to be done by the end of the year. They can then turn to the main

:08:18.:08:20.

event, the future trading relationship between the UK

:08:21.:08:23.

and the EU. While the UK remains a member

:08:24.:08:25.

of the EU customs union, it cannot But it can hold advanced discussions

:08:26.:08:28.

with other countries. This week, Australian Prime Minister

:08:29.:08:32.

Malcolm Turnbull said his country was very keen for a deal

:08:33.:08:34.

as quickly as possible. And at the G20 summit, Donald Trump

:08:35.:08:39.

said he wanted to sign a very powerful UK-US trade

:08:40.:08:43.

deal very quickly. But as trade deals normally

:08:44.:08:48.

take years to negotiate, So there will be plenty

:08:49.:08:54.

for both sides to digest, as negotiations continue

:08:55.:08:59.

over the summer. I'm joined

:09:00.:09:07.

by the International Trade Your brief is to agree new free

:09:08.:09:17.

trade deals but you cannot sign any until Brexit is done, can you even

:09:18.:09:23.

begin proper negotiations this side of Brexit or is that illegal too? We

:09:24.:09:28.

cannot negotiate and conclude a trade agreement but we can scope

:09:29.:09:35.

them out. We can get our preparatory work done. We have got ten working

:09:36.:09:39.

groups established across the world with countries from Korea to the

:09:40.:09:44.

United States to Australia. I know scoping the out is fine, you can

:09:45.:09:48.

talk about trade but you cannot begin formal trade negotiations

:09:49.:09:54.

until after Brexit. No, but we have trade working agreements. Free trade

:09:55.:09:57.

agreements are not the only thing that are in the mix as it were, they

:09:58.:10:04.

are what people think about but we also have mutual recognition

:10:05.:10:07.

agreements where we can reduce some of the barriers to trade, the

:10:08.:10:13.

technical barriers, in that process. We have a number of other things

:10:14.:10:17.

going on. We have got to get our trading schedules in Switzerland and

:10:18.:10:22.

Geneva and the World Trade Organisation organised. We then have

:10:23.:10:26.

40 EU free trade agreements and we have to get them ready because if we

:10:27.:10:30.

were not to negotiate those and be ready on the first day of Brexit,

:10:31.:10:35.

there would be huge market disruption. Although you can clearly

:10:36.:10:39.

do a lot of technical work and you can talk till the cows come home,

:10:40.:10:45.

there will be no free trade deals on the shelf ready to sign come March

:10:46.:10:52.

2019 when we are leaving the EU, that's correct isn't it? Technically

:10:53.:11:00.

there will be new ones... There will be no free trade deals ready to say

:11:01.:11:06.

right, we are out, here is a deal I have baked earlier. Not right away

:11:07.:11:09.

because we are not permitted to do that as part of our membership of

:11:10.:11:13.

the European Union and one of the things I want to get is greater

:11:14.:11:18.

freedom to be able to negotiate on behalf of the UK. That's not

:11:19.:11:21.

possible when you are inside the customs union. There's much talk of

:11:22.:11:28.

a transition after 2019. You told Bloomberg you didn't mind a few

:11:29.:11:31.

months, the Chancellor this morning said it would be a couple of years.

:11:32.:11:38.

What is it? The key thing is why would you have a transitional

:11:39.:11:41.

arrangements, how long would it be and what would the conditions be.

:11:42.:11:46.

For me first we have to leave the European Union in March 2019 so

:11:47.:11:51.

there can be no case of extending EU membership. At that point as a third

:11:52.:11:59.

country we can have a transition agreement which keeps as little

:12:00.:12:01.

disruption as possible but it has to have an end date. You said a few

:12:02.:12:06.

months, the Chancellor said a few years, why the difference? As the

:12:07.:12:11.

Chancellor said, it is more a technical argument, because for

:12:12.:12:15.

example how do we get new border equipment in place, how do we get

:12:16.:12:19.

the arrangements for immigration put in place, but for me, you know, I've

:12:20.:12:24.

waited a long time and campaigned long time to leave the European

:12:25.:12:30.

Union. As long as we leave in March 2019 I'm happy, as long as we have a

:12:31.:12:34.

time-limited transitional period to make it work for business. The

:12:35.:12:37.

Chancellor doesn't deny the transition could take up four years.

:12:38.:12:43.

The Brexit Secretary David Davis says it could be a maximum of three

:12:44.:12:49.

years, you are talking months. Shouldn't you sort this out around

:12:50.:12:52.

the Cabinet table instead of all three of you sending mixed messages?

:12:53.:13:00.

We are dependent on for example what HMRC Tal us, how investment is

:13:01.:13:04.

going. It's also a question of negotiating with our European

:13:05.:13:08.

partners. We know what's involved, why are you sending out these mixed

:13:09.:13:14.

messages? I don't have a problem with the transition period as long

:13:15.:13:18.

as it is time-limited. It is not just the time, it is the conditions.

:13:19.:13:23.

I want in the transitional period to be able to negotiate agreements at

:13:24.:13:28.

that point. We cannot have a putting off over the freedom to negotiate

:13:29.:13:32.

trade agreements. At the moment is it clear you would be able to sign

:13:33.:13:39.

any free trade deals during a transition period? No, that's to be

:13:40.:13:47.

negotiated. So if Mr Hammond or Mr Davies is right, up to three or four

:13:48.:13:53.

years, it could be 2021 before you get to sign a free trade deal. We

:13:54.:13:58.

don't now how long any would take to negotiate. They don't happen

:13:59.:14:03.

overnight. Would you even be able to negotiate during a transition

:14:04.:14:08.

period? I would hope so, that is one of the conditions we might set. It

:14:09.:14:13.

is certainly something I would want to see because otherwise it makes it

:14:14.:14:15.

much more difficult to take advantage of the opportunities that

:14:16.:14:20.

Brexit itself would produce. Your ink will run dry before you get to

:14:21.:14:24.

sign one of these agreements. We have a huge amount to do and it's

:14:25.:14:31.

not just at the free trade agreement level. We have for example what we

:14:32.:14:35.

get at the World Trade Organisation because the real game for the UK is

:14:36.:14:40.

to get a global liberalisation in the services sector -- the real

:14:41.:14:48.

gain. And I want to come onto that in a minute but before do, are you

:14:49.:14:53.

group of the Cabinet ministers that seems to regularly be briefing

:14:54.:14:58.

against Philip Hammond? No, I deplore leaks from the Cabinet, I

:14:59.:15:04.

think my colleagues should be quiet, stick to their duties, and I expect

:15:05.:15:11.

discipline to be effective. The only people smiling that this will be

:15:12.:15:17.

people in Berlin and Paris. Why are people doing it? The need to have

:15:18.:15:24.

less prosecco. They don't trust Philip Hammond, do they? I don't

:15:25.:15:30.

think that is true. I read in the press we have very different views,

:15:31.:15:33.

in fact our views are very similar on things like transition. I don't

:15:34.:15:38.

know where it is coming from but I think it should stop.

:15:39.:15:44.

But it is happening? It is happening and I think it undermines the

:15:45.:15:50.

position of the government. We do not need an interim leader or an

:15:51.:15:55.

alternative leader. We have a very good competent leader in Theresa

:15:56.:16:01.

May. But he thinks it is being done by fellow Brexiteers? I do not know

:16:02.:16:05.

who is doing it and they should stop. Let's come back to the tariff

:16:06.:16:11.

free trade. There is much talk about that. The Chancellor says much of

:16:12.:16:16.

our trade with the world is in services and free trade deals won't

:16:17.:16:20.

make any particular difference. Do you agree with him? They can make a

:16:21.:16:25.

difference. It has been estimated with the OECD that free trade deals

:16:26.:16:30.

with the United States could add ?42 billion to our bilateral trade by

:16:31.:16:37.

2030. There is a game to be made. In an economy like the UK which is 80%

:16:38.:16:41.

services, what we would benefit from is a range of global liberalisation.

:16:42.:16:47.

One example is data. We have an economy where we talk about freedom

:16:48.:16:50.

of movement of goods and services, but you also have to have the

:16:51.:16:54.

freedom of movement of data. One thing I would like the UK to lead on

:16:55.:17:00.

is to look to a global agreement on that. But the talks have come to an

:17:01.:17:06.

end. There is no great global movement. That is not true. We have

:17:07.:17:13.

just had a multilateral agreement, the trade facilitation was signed

:17:14.:17:16.

this year which seeks to diminish friction at customs around the world

:17:17.:17:21.

and will add 70 billion to the economy. But it leaves plenty of

:17:22.:17:25.

nontariff barriers in place. The moment you start to talk about these

:17:26.:17:28.

complicated rules and regulations that hinder services, it does not

:17:29.:17:33.

make free trade deals impossible, it makes them much more on placated and

:17:34.:17:39.

prolonged to do. Correct? You need to look at what is happening in the

:17:40.:17:46.

global economy. According to the OECD, in 2012, the G7 and G20

:17:47.:17:51.

countries were operating about 300 nontariff barriers. By the end of

:17:52.:17:55.

2015, they were operating nearly three times that number. The silting

:17:56.:18:00.

up of growth and global trade is being done by the global economy. We

:18:01.:18:05.

need to be looking at how we can remove some of those barriers,

:18:06.:18:09.

because otherwise our prosperity becomes limited. Is it still your

:18:10.:18:13.

view that no deal would be better than a bad deal? Anyone who goes

:18:14.:18:20.

into that negotiation without that is foolish. We will not accept any

:18:21.:18:24.

deal they will give us. That is the problem David Cameron had before the

:18:25.:18:29.

referendum. I think our partners believed we would accept a bad deal

:18:30.:18:33.

rather than none. But Philip Hammond has given the game away. He said no

:18:34.:18:39.

deal would be a very, very bad outcome. The Europeans know that we

:18:40.:18:44.

have realised no deal would be a very bad outcome. Is he right? I

:18:45.:18:49.

think you can argue on what the outcome would be. It is very

:18:50.:18:54.

important as a negotiating tool, and the Prime Minister is 100% right.

:18:55.:18:57.

Those we are negotiating with, need to believe that we would walk away

:18:58.:19:02.

rather than accept a bad deal. But if you're going to walk away you did

:19:03.:19:06.

not say the consequences would be very, very bad. You do not agree

:19:07.:19:22.

with the key is what is our negotiating position? You simply do

:19:23.:19:27.

not hand it away. So he is wrong? He says very, very bad. We have to

:19:28.:19:30.

accept we have a right to walk away and those we are negotiating with

:19:31.:19:34.

have to understand that. No businessman would go into a deal and

:19:35.:19:38.

say whatever the outcome, we will accept it. And no business would go

:19:39.:19:42.

into a major negotiation with six different voices but your government

:19:43.:19:47.

is. David Davis speaks for the government not the Sunday

:19:48.:19:54.

newspapers. Not Philip Hammond. Philip Hammond was very clear this

:19:55.:19:57.

morning on the issue of transition. We are leaving the single the --

:19:58.:20:06.

market, we are leaving the customs union. Let me just quote to some

:20:07.:20:11.

other issues. It would be good to get some clarity. Is there a

:20:12.:20:17.

contingency plan for no deal? Yes, government departments are all

:20:18.:20:20.

working for their contingency plans for what would happen if we got to

:20:21.:20:25.

the end of negotiation with no deal. Why did the Foreign Secretary say

:20:26.:20:30.

there was no plan for no deal. There are contingency plans across

:20:31.:20:35.

Whitehall. Is he wrong or out of the loop? As dead no. There are

:20:36.:20:40.

contingency plans and my department and other departments have

:20:41.:20:45.

specifically been tasked... He said it this week. Well, that is not

:20:46.:20:50.

correct. We would be foolish not to have such contingency plans. I

:20:51.:20:55.

understand the argument, you need to bring the Foreign Secretary in. He

:20:56.:20:59.

is only the Foreign Secretary that you would need to bring him in, I

:21:00.:21:05.

would have thought. You want is full deal with the EU as possible. Would

:21:06.:21:11.

you be prepared to pay for that kind of open access? It depends what you

:21:12.:21:20.

mean by pay. We have to start with where we are with the European Union

:21:21.:21:25.

at the moment. We already have a tariff free arrangement. I know what

:21:26.:21:30.

we already have. The only reason why we would not continue with that is

:21:31.:21:35.

if the politicians on the other side of the channel wanted to put

:21:36.:21:41.

politics before economics. What they said they want an annual fee? If

:21:42.:21:47.

they are talking about Britain continuing to pay for those

:21:48.:21:50.

international arrangements... I am not talking about that and I think

:21:51.:21:56.

you know I am not. If we get a full access trade deal, that they say you

:21:57.:21:59.

have to pay an annual fee for this full access, should we pay it? I

:22:00.:22:05.

would not want to make a public position while our negotiations are

:22:06.:22:08.

coming on but I think you would find it difficult to square with WTO law.

:22:09.:22:14.

Has there ever been a free trade deal where you pay the other side

:22:15.:22:19.

for access? Not that I am aware of. Nor me. It would be unprecedented.

:22:20.:22:25.

Are you ruling it out? I am not going to say anything. I see say we

:22:26.:22:29.

should not have a number of different cabinet voices ahead of

:22:30.:22:30.

our negotiations so I will not do that. We will have a

:22:31.:22:54.

negotiation. We will try and get as free deal as possible. Let me tell

:22:55.:22:57.

you why it is important. I know why it is important. I have another

:22:58.:23:00.

question. You said the EU has trade deals with a number of other

:23:01.:23:03.

countries at the moment of which we are part of, South Korea and Canada

:23:04.:23:05.

are two examples. Will they continue to trade with us on the existing

:23:06.:23:08.

basis, or will we have to do new deals or change these deals after

:23:09.:23:11.

Brexit? We are negotiating with his third countries so we have something

:23:12.:23:15.

so that deals are translated into UK law so there is no disruption to

:23:16.:23:21.

trade. It is not clear. It is break clear. The Canada deal has not yet

:23:22.:23:27.

been ratified by the European Union. So we do not know if we can carry on

:23:28.:23:31.

trading with those countries which the EU has a free trade deal with on

:23:32.:23:37.

the same basis. We have not spoken to a single country and we have

:23:38.:23:43.

working groups with Switzerland and career which make up 82% by value.

:23:44.:23:48.

Not a single one of those has indicated they did not want to carry

:23:49.:23:53.

out this transitional adoption. In the case of Canada, in the case of

:23:54.:23:58.

Singapore, where that agreement has not yet been reached by the EU, we

:23:59.:24:03.

will have to think then about a Plan B and how we go into a bilateral

:24:04.:24:09.

agreement. The EU now regards as may as a lame duck leader. It is true in

:24:10.:24:16.

Brussels, Berlin and Paris -- the EU now regards Mrs May as a lame duck

:24:17.:24:21.

leader. There is a hung parliament. Labour will not save your bacon on

:24:22.:24:25.

Brexit. They want a quick election and they will vote to bring that

:24:26.:24:32.

about. This election result has severely undermined Britain's

:24:33.:24:39.

negotiating position. If you are looking at European governments,

:24:40.:24:42.

they are looking at dealing with minority governments all the time.

:24:43.:24:46.

They are dealing with coalitions formal and informal. The key is we

:24:47.:24:50.

have something stronger than that. We have the will of the British

:24:51.:24:53.

people behind us clearly expressed in the referendum that we are going

:24:54.:24:57.

to leave the European Union, whatever Tony Blair or anyone else

:24:58.:25:02.

says. We will leave in March 20 19. Now the job of the government is to

:25:03.:25:06.

get the best deal and that is best done by my colleagues getting on

:25:07.:25:09.

with their departmental work, not involving themselves in things they

:25:10.:25:14.

do not need to be involved in, giving our backbenchers the

:25:15.:25:17.

reassurance that we have a united Cabinet. Liam Fox, thank you.

:25:18.:25:22.

Jeremy Corbyn went to Brussels this week to meet with the EU's

:25:23.:25:24.

chief Brexit negotiator, Michael Barnier.

:25:25.:25:26.

We're told Mr Corbyn wanted to set out Labour's

:25:27.:25:28.

But on some of the big questions - like Britain's relationship

:25:29.:25:31.

with the single market and the customs union -

:25:32.:25:34.

Here's Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell speaking earlier.

:25:35.:25:37.

I believe we have to try and maintain the benefits

:25:38.:25:39.

of the customs union, and that's one of the issues

:25:40.:25:42.

Does it mean staying inside or leaving?

:25:43.:25:45.

Keep all the options open, keep all the options...

:25:46.:25:48.

Under Labour we could stay inside the customs union?

:25:49.:25:50.

We are concentrating on the objectives rather

:25:51.:25:53.

than the structures and that seems to have a resonance

:25:54.:25:55.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Business Secretary

:25:56.:25:59.

Rebecca Long-Bailey, she's in our Salford studio.

:26:00.:26:03.

Good morning to you. Good morning. If there is a snap general election

:26:04.:26:10.

it could well be Labour negotiating Brexit, so let's try and get some

:26:11.:26:14.

answers to some fundamental questions. Is Labour in favour of

:26:15.:26:18.

Britain remaining a member of the single market? What we have said it

:26:19.:26:22.

want to retain the benefits of the single market and the customs union.

:26:23.:26:27.

We have to be flexible in our approach, we appreciate that. The

:26:28.:26:31.

end goal is maintaining the current benefits we have because we are

:26:32.:26:32.

standing on the edge of a cliff, quite frankly, on

:26:33.:26:54.

that matter. But you would concentrate on remaining a member of

:26:55.:26:56.

the single market? The machinery we use to maintain those benefits is

:26:57.:26:59.

open to negotiation. We have got to respect the result of the referendum

:27:00.:27:01.

and the will of the people, in terms of having greater control over our

:27:02.:27:04.

laws and the border. If we could negotiate staying in the single

:27:05.:27:06.

market would be fantastic but whether it is likely have to be

:27:07.:27:09.

seen. We are looking at all the options on the table and getting

:27:10.:27:12.

access to the single market is one of those. Everybody wants access, I

:27:13.:27:17.

am talking about membership. It is still not clear whether you would

:27:18.:27:21.

negotiate to remain as a member of the single market, with all the

:27:22.:27:25.

consequences of free movement and the European Court that would follow

:27:26.:27:30.

from that. What is your position? We want to retain the current benefits

:27:31.:27:34.

we have is a member of the single market, but we appreciate there will

:27:35.:27:38.

be free movement and we will lose control over our laws. That was one

:27:39.:27:43.

of the key positions that were set out in the referendum and people

:27:44.:27:48.

were extremely concerned about that. That has to be negotiated. If we

:27:49.:27:51.

could negotiate membership of the single market while dealing with the

:27:52.:27:57.

other issues, that would be great. I think that would be unlikely. We

:27:58.:28:02.

have to look at a more flexible approach while not being a member.

:28:03.:28:08.

Is Labour in favour of remaining a member of the customs union? Again,

:28:09.:28:13.

the position is similar. We want to retain the benefits we have in the

:28:14.:28:20.

customs union. We want to have our cake and eat it, as do most parties

:28:21.:28:23.

in Westminster. So you and Boris Johnson or on the same wavelength?

:28:24.:28:27.

We need to be flexible, not cut our nose off despite our face. I am

:28:28.:28:35.

asking for your position. Would you be clear to be prepared to sacrifice

:28:36.:28:42.

not being able to do free trade deals, as the price for remaining in

:28:43.:28:48.

the customs union? We have to be extremely flexible. We should be

:28:49.:28:53.

able to carry out and negotiate our free trade deals. You cannot do that

:28:54.:28:59.

in the customs union? So are you in or out? That is why it is a point

:29:00.:29:04.

for negotiation, Andrew. We want to retain the benefits of the customs

:29:05.:29:08.

union will negotiating trade deals as we see fit. That will form part

:29:09.:29:13.

of the negotiations themselves. We cannot cut our nose despite our face

:29:14.:29:18.

without coming out of the customs union without any transitional

:29:19.:29:21.

arrangements whatsoever and send businesses over the cliff. Since you

:29:22.:29:25.

do want to keep your cake and eat it. You want to stay in the single

:29:26.:29:29.

market but not have the obligations that go with it, stay the single

:29:30.:29:39.

union but not do -- stay in the single market but do your own trade

:29:40.:29:44.

deals. The opposition is untenable. That is the point of the

:29:45.:29:51.

negotiations... To be untenable? Not to be untenable. We have

:29:52.:29:56.

negotiations. The machinery we have whether it is through outside

:29:57.:29:59.

agreements or whether it is about a negotiated form of an amended

:30:00.:30:03.

settlement, that is a moot point frankly. We need to make sure we

:30:04.:30:08.

have the same benefits. John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor,

:30:09.:30:13.

says people would interpret remaining in the single market is

:30:14.:30:17.

not respecting the referendum but you say it is an option to keep

:30:18.:30:21.

open, who is right? I think he is right in what he said. It is

:30:22.:30:25.

automatically assumed that once you leave the EU you leave the single

:30:26.:30:28.

market and that is generally the case. I would be surprised that we

:30:29.:30:32.

would be able to negotiate any of the concessions that we want to make

:30:33.:30:36.

as remaining part of the single market as a member. I am not saying

:30:37.:30:40.

it is completely off the table because stranger things have

:30:41.:30:45.

happened, but what we need to focus on is less on the machinery and more

:30:46.:30:49.

on the outcome. We need to make sure we retain the benefits and we

:30:50.:30:52.

negotiate some form of agreement to deal with that.

:30:53.:30:58.

But why would you keep an option open that would not respect the

:30:59.:31:05.

result of the referendum? People assume that once you leave the EU

:31:06.:31:10.

you leave the single market. That could be negotiated, but it's

:31:11.:31:14.

extremely unlikely. I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage because

:31:15.:31:18.

stranger things have happened and this process so far has been

:31:19.:31:23.

extremely chaotic. But you would have to decide your negotiating

:31:24.:31:27.

position. Saying we don't rule anything out is not a negotiating

:31:28.:31:35.

position. We are clear on our negotiating position, we want to

:31:36.:31:38.

retain the benefits we currently have as part of the customs union

:31:39.:31:43.

and the single market, whether that is inside or outside is a moot

:31:44.:31:48.

point. Rex it means Brexit, we are clear on that. -- Brexit means

:31:49.:31:57.

Brexit. How can it, if you want to stay inside the single market and

:31:58.:32:01.

Customs union, and you said access would entail accepting some element

:32:02.:32:07.

of free movement. That's what you said but your manifesto was

:32:08.:32:11.

categorical - free movement would end after Brexit, which is currently

:32:12.:32:17.

Labour policy? The manifesto was clear free movement would end. The

:32:18.:32:22.

point I was making at the time is there are some areas which are

:32:23.:32:26.

extremely complex, for example the free movement of scientists. There

:32:27.:32:35.

is an extreme state of concern regarding that, so the Government

:32:36.:32:38.

has to look at things like that. There might have to be concession is

:32:39.:32:43.

made in certain areas like that in order to get an associative

:32:44.:32:47.

membership for example but the clear position overall is that free

:32:48.:32:50.

movement would end and we are in favour of reasonable and managed

:32:51.:32:54.

migration. We are also not in favour of the current undercutting of wages

:32:55.:32:58.

for example through the Swedish denigration and we want to see that

:32:59.:33:02.

end immediately because we don't think it is right company cancels

:33:03.:33:07.

labour overseas and undercut British employees. Let me finish on another

:33:08.:33:13.

topic. John McDonnell again, the Shadow Chancellor, said this morning

:33:14.:33:17.

the victims of Grenfell Tower were victims of social murder. What is

:33:18.:33:25.

social murder? I haven't spoken to John about that but what happened in

:33:26.:33:31.

Grenfell was absolutely horrific. But were they victims of social

:33:32.:33:38.

murder? I haven't spoken to John to understand the term but in my

:33:39.:33:44.

constituency we have a large number of tower blocks that have the same

:33:45.:33:48.

cladding on and people are living in fear. Following the Lakanal House

:33:49.:33:52.

fire, the coroner made recommendations the Government

:33:53.:33:58.

should be installing sprinklers in all housing over 30 metres high and

:33:59.:34:04.

they haven't done that. I call on than to do that immediately whilst

:34:05.:34:09.

also making sure the funding is available to carry out necessary

:34:10.:34:14.

remedial works. One other issue has come light... My question is

:34:15.:34:24.

important... When John McDonnell says that the people in Grenfell

:34:25.:34:29.

Tower were murdered, murdered by political decisions, is he right? I

:34:30.:34:34.

go back to the point I made earlier. I haven't discussed it with John...

:34:35.:34:43.

Two weeks ago. The Government should have acted on recommendations. Were

:34:44.:34:51.

they murdered? They should have acted on recommendations to retrofit

:34:52.:34:57.

sprinklers and they didn't. There was incompetence is no question,

:34:58.:35:01.

dereliction of duty, some terrible decisions made that resulted in that

:35:02.:35:06.

appalling event that we saw but does that amount to murder? It is a

:35:07.:35:12.

simple question. You could look at it case of manslaughter but the fact

:35:13.:35:17.

is people lost their lives through a failure to conduct adequately a duty

:35:18.:35:22.

of care. People would assume that is murder if you like, if it was taken

:35:23.:35:27.

through the courts, and could be classified as corporate

:35:28.:35:33.

manslaughter. It's not murder? We are going round in circles here. The

:35:34.:35:38.

point is the Government should have acted on recommendations to retrofit

:35:39.:35:42.

sprinklers years ago and should have looked at amending building

:35:43.:35:45.

regulations instead of kicking the issue into the long grass time and

:35:46.:35:50.

time again. People where I live are living in extreme fear, and we want

:35:51.:35:55.

the Government to take action immediately. Rebecca Long-Bailey

:35:56.:35:59.

from Salford, thank you for joining us.

:36:00.:36:01.

You may not have noticed but Ukip - the party that once promised

:36:02.:36:04.

and arguably delivered a political earthquake - is having

:36:05.:36:06.

The last leader, Paul Nuttall, stood down after the party saw its vote

:36:07.:36:11.

is one anti-Islam candidate threatening to split what's

:36:12.:36:15.

Forget the warm prosecco, if there is any plotting going on in Ukip

:36:16.:36:33.

about who should be in charge, it would be going on over a pint. And

:36:34.:36:40.

there is plotting. This programme understands Ukip's ruling body could

:36:41.:36:45.

ban one of the candidates from standing, and that is not going to

:36:46.:36:51.

go down terribly well. Anne Marie Waters, a former Labour activist,

:36:52.:36:55.

wants to be the next leader. She believes Ukip needs to talk more

:36:56.:36:59.

about Islam, a religion she has called evil. She says there is

:37:00.:37:03.

growing support for her views including among the hundreds of new

:37:04.:37:08.

members who have joined Ukip in recent weeks. Are you anti-Islam? I

:37:09.:37:14.

don't like the religion, no, and a lot of people get confused on Islam

:37:15.:37:21.

and all Muslims. The religion, the Scriptures and how it is practised

:37:22.:37:25.

in most of the world I find quite frankly abhorrent. There are

:37:26.:37:28.

millions of people in this country who think as I do. They don't

:37:29.:37:36.

want... And the real extreme right could rise if people are not allowed

:37:37.:37:41.

to talk about this. Nigel Farage has already said he doesn't want to be

:37:42.:37:45.

the leader again, but he still has a clear view of what Ukip 's macro

:37:46.:37:51.

future should and should not hold. Ukip goes down the route of being a

:37:52.:37:59.

party that is anti the religion of Islam, frankly it's finished. I

:38:00.:38:02.

don't think there is any public appetite for that but it is timing

:38:03.:38:07.

and the party would be finished. If there are some within Ukip who say

:38:08.:38:10.

the party had already moved to the right at the last election with its

:38:11.:38:12.

integration agenda. Banning

:38:13.:38:19.

the burka and physically checking children for female

:38:20.:38:21.

genital mutilation. If we don't really do something

:38:22.:38:22.

about FGM now, we never will. Anne Marie Waters wants to go

:38:23.:38:25.

further but also suspects The party chairman says

:38:26.:38:27.

there will be due process according to Ukip's constitution,

:38:28.:38:33.

including the screening process

:38:34.:38:49.

for its leadership candidates conducted

:38:50.:38:51.

by an external vetting company. But like the old boss,

:38:52.:38:52.

he doesn't think Ukip should become What we're going through now

:38:53.:38:54.

is a process where people can I'm talking about the process

:38:55.:38:58.

we have, which I think is robust enough to protect the party,

:38:59.:39:02.

its history, and protect its future. We have always been

:39:03.:39:05.

about being for something, we are not against something,

:39:06.:39:07.

and hopefully that will come through in this leadership election

:39:08.:39:09.

so I'm excited about it. I'm not focusing on one

:39:10.:39:12.

particular candidate. But it has got senior

:39:13.:39:13.

party figures worried. Several MEPs have told me

:39:14.:39:15.

the majority of their colleagues in Brussels would walk away

:39:16.:39:18.

if Anne Marie Waters Another Ukip senior source

:39:19.:39:20.

said there would be mass The deadline for leadership

:39:21.:39:23.

nominations is the 28th of July. So far, around seven people have

:39:24.:39:27.

said they intend to stand. Of course the bigger the field,

:39:28.:39:29.

the fewer the votes required to win. One senior MEP told me it would be

:39:30.:39:32.

the most rancorous contest the party had ever had,

:39:33.:39:35.

amongst the least stellar cast. The man who led Ukip at its most

:39:36.:39:38.

successful says direction is one thing but the party must also become

:39:39.:39:41.

more professional on their current

:39:42.:39:43.

trajectory, then they will on their current

:39:44.:39:51.

trajectory, then they will And as I say, if Ukip withers

:39:52.:39:54.

and Brexit is not delivered, something else will replace it

:39:55.:39:58.

so I'm saying to what is still my party, unless you change radically,

:39:59.:40:01.

get your act together, Whatever the direction

:40:02.:40:03.

the new leader takes Ukip, there are already plenty who think

:40:04.:40:13.

the party is over. We say goodbye to viewers

:40:14.:40:24.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:40:25.:40:34.

we'll be talking about what's next Hello and welcome to

:40:35.:40:39.

the Sunday Politics Wales. In a few minutes,

:40:40.:40:51.

the Assembly's Presiding Officer tells us what she thinks

:40:52.:40:54.

about the Repeal Bill. And with Wimbledon in mind,

:40:55.:40:57.

who's been on form this term and who's crashed out

:40:58.:41:00.

of the political match? But first, Carwyn Jones went

:41:01.:41:06.

to Brussels this week to meet the EU's chief negotiator

:41:07.:41:08.

Michel Barnier on the very same day as the Repeal Bill came out,

:41:09.:41:13.

that's the legislation that sets out how EU rules will be

:41:14.:41:16.

transferred after Brexit. The UK Government wants them to be

:41:17.:41:20.

held temporarily at Westminster, the Welsh Government says it's

:41:21.:41:25.

a naked power grab. So with that in mind

:41:26.:41:28.

was Carwyn Jones' visit It's a question I put to him

:41:29.:41:31.

when I spoke to him in the garden Bear in mind of course that

:41:32.:41:36.

wasn't the original date Actually, we had organised this

:41:37.:41:42.

meeting before we knew the date. It may seem like a highly organised

:41:43.:41:49.

event but it wasn't. What was important was,

:41:50.:41:52.

we were able to go, explain the position as far as Wales

:41:53.:41:56.

was concerned, get an idea of how the Commission saw the process

:41:57.:41:59.

moving forward. That is important in terms of us

:42:00.:42:02.

being able to see what the way Next week we have got an enormously

:42:03.:42:07.

important full week of Brexit negotiations and from a UK

:42:08.:42:13.

perspective, there are mixed That is not good for any

:42:14.:42:19.

negotiating strategy. I make absolutely no apology

:42:20.:42:23.

for putting forward Wales's voice. I don't see that in any way

:42:24.:42:27.

as mischief making, that is my job When I had the meeting

:42:28.:42:30.

with him we both knew it wasn't negotiation, it was simply us

:42:31.:42:34.

outlining what qA said so far and I was trying to understand

:42:35.:42:37.

what they saw process as. We have, for weeks and weeks

:42:38.:42:40.

and weeks, said to the UK Government we would like to work

:42:41.:42:43.

with you to develop a Brexit that We have asked them that week

:42:44.:42:47.

after week after week and they haven't come back to us

:42:48.:42:52.

with any constructive solutions. They are now, they are now,

:42:53.:42:55.

but we did say to them we are happy to work with you but bluntly,

:42:56.:42:58.

if you're not going to work Did you pick up the phone

:42:59.:43:01.

to David Davis this weekend? David Davies has been

:43:02.:43:05.

speaking to Mark Drakeford. He spoke to Mark last

:43:06.:43:08.

on the 3rd of July. I have been speaking

:43:09.:43:11.

to Alun Cairns as well. Theresa May, where she is,

:43:12.:43:14.

nobody ever knows. David Davis is the man

:43:15.:43:18.

representing Wales, representing Welsh farmers, steelworkers in those

:43:19.:43:21.

Brexit negotiations and you are not Instead, you go to Brussels

:43:22.:43:25.

and you are speaking to the man who is representing French farmers

:43:26.:43:29.

and Italian farmers. I don't agree with David Davis,

:43:30.:43:32.

bluntly, and the position the UK You can talk to David Davis

:43:33.:43:37.

and it is very useful to have meetings with him

:43:38.:43:42.

and that is something I very much value but he believes the UK

:43:43.:43:45.

Government should leave the single market, the customs union

:43:46.:43:47.

and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. I don't believe in

:43:48.:43:50.

any of those things. We are not going to

:43:51.:43:52.

achieve common ground. We have had the Repeal Bill

:43:53.:43:55.

published this week. A central issue here

:43:56.:43:59.

is you want all those European powers distributed to

:44:00.:44:03.

the devolved nations. But the problem is,

:44:04.:44:07.

there is no time for that. This is an internal

:44:08.:44:09.

matter for the UK. As things stand at the moment,

:44:10.:44:15.

those powers come straight here in They don't go to London,

:44:16.:44:19.

they don't go to fisheries, What the UK Government is trying

:44:20.:44:22.

to do is stop them coming Basically, to put it bluntly,

:44:23.:44:26.

England does what it wants, Wales, Scotland

:44:27.:44:30.

and Northern Ireland can't. I understand we need to make

:44:31.:44:33.

sure things don't change suddenly overnight,

:44:34.:44:39.

but we said to the UK Government, the powers come

:44:40.:44:41.

to us, let's all agree we're not going to change things

:44:42.:44:44.

until we have all sat down It is an important

:44:45.:44:47.

principle that it is done through consent

:44:48.:44:50.

and not by imposition. They have got to take all the risk

:44:51.:44:52.

out of the situation. You can understand it from the UK

:44:53.:44:55.

Government's perspective when actually the devolved

:44:56.:44:57.

nations may not do that. Their priority is the morning

:44:58.:45:01.

after Brexit, Welsh farmers being able to sell their lamb

:45:02.:45:04.

to France and other That is the greatest risk Welsh

:45:05.:45:06.

farmers have is not being able to sell as they do

:45:07.:45:12.

in the single market. That is by far the greatest

:45:13.:45:14.

risk that they face. If Welsh farmers face

:45:15.:45:16.

any kind of barrier, whether it is financial,

:45:17.:45:18.

in term of regulation to selling into Europe,

:45:19.:45:20.

that is a massive chunk of That is what the UK

:45:21.:45:24.

Government needs to focus on. It's not as if any of us have said,

:45:25.:45:27.

as soon as we get the power we will do something

:45:28.:45:31.

incredibly different to There is an important

:45:32.:45:33.

principle here and that is, it is not for Westminster

:45:34.:45:38.

to try to take back powers from the Assembly once they have

:45:39.:45:41.

arrived back from Brussels. These are an exceptional

:45:42.:45:44.

set of circumstances. 20 months left and the morning

:45:45.:45:46.

after we leave, they have got to be in a position to be able

:45:47.:45:52.

to trade and strike a deal. You can only do that

:45:53.:45:55.

with one system. The UK Government is doing the most

:45:56.:45:58.

logical thing possible which is all the legislation comes

:45:59.:46:01.

in on a temporary basis and they have said all those powers

:46:02.:46:05.

will be devolved in time. They have to do this

:46:06.:46:08.

because the priority Surely, farmers will

:46:09.:46:10.

agree with that. Trade will trump the constitution

:46:11.:46:15.

in terms of priorities. As I said, trade is the most

:46:16.:46:19.

important issue, that is true. But if we don't have access

:46:20.:46:24.

to the single market on the terms we do now,

:46:25.:46:27.

farmers will suffer. There has been no

:46:28.:46:29.

guarantee of subsidies It is possible we might be

:46:30.:46:33.

forced to go to a badger cull because of something the UK

:46:34.:46:39.

Government has agreed. These are and not to be

:46:40.:46:41.

taken lightly, they are not strained constitutional

:46:42.:46:45.

issues, they are fundamentally The people of Wales voted in 2011

:46:46.:46:48.

for the powers the Assembly has now and constitutionally the powers

:46:49.:46:53.

when they leave Brussels come You talk about a power grab,

:46:54.:46:57.

does it really stack up? You look at all the problems the UK

:46:58.:47:01.

Government is facing the moment, are they really desperate to get

:47:02.:47:04.

hold of farm subsidy That is a wing of the

:47:05.:47:08.

Conservative Party that is centralist, they still haven't come

:47:09.:47:12.

to grips with devolution. Now, the principle

:47:13.:47:16.

powers should not be removed from any devolved Assembly

:47:17.:47:19.

without the consent of We face a situation where we might

:47:20.:47:21.

want to do something but we are told you can't do it

:47:22.:47:29.

and Westminster says, This is a partnership of four

:47:30.:47:31.

nations at the end of the day. If Westminster was to turn around

:47:32.:47:37.

and say, we will impose a restriction on ourselves as well,

:47:38.:47:42.

that might be a different argument. You said earlier on this is

:47:43.:47:44.

temporarily, where in the Bill does Call me old-fashioned but I want

:47:45.:47:48.

to see it in writing first. The view there of the First

:47:49.:47:55.

Minister but what about the Assembly's approach

:47:56.:47:58.

to the Repeal Bill? In her first interview

:47:59.:47:59.

since it was published the Presiding Officer Elin Jones

:48:00.:48:01.

joins me now from Aberystwyth. Good morning.

:48:02.:48:14.

I suppose the first question to you is, whether you agree with the First

:48:15.:48:19.

Minister that Wales is facing a constitutional crisis. I certainly

:48:20.:48:24.

think the bill as it is drafted currently is a recipe for

:48:25.:48:30.

constitutional uncertainty. There is a serious undermining of the

:48:31.:48:33.

constitutional settlement as we know it come as it has been voted fourth

:48:34.:48:43.

by the people of Wales. Therefore, powers that we would have expected

:48:44.:48:48.

as a result of the EU Brexit referendum to return from the EU to

:48:49.:48:54.

Wales from Brussels to Cardiff, agricultural powers, fisheries,

:48:55.:48:59.

environmental, the repeal bill as it is drafted will grab or fleas are

:49:00.:49:04.

whatever word you wish to use, those powers will be frozen by the UK

:49:05.:49:12.

Government and not returned and not be able to be utilised by the UK

:49:13.:49:18.

Government. A crisis is going too far? It is uncertainty, it is crisis

:49:19.:49:25.

because we don't really know what this will mean for the people of

:49:26.:49:31.

Wales. It seems to me as if it is the path of greatest resistance to

:49:32.:49:39.

providing the ability of Parliament throughout the UK to work together,

:49:40.:49:44.

to come up with a solution that will meet the needs of EU negotiation and

:49:45.:49:48.

also meet the needs of people, businesses, farmers who need a

:49:49.:49:52.

degree of certainty as to what life will look like the day after Brexit.

:49:53.:49:59.

It is the greatest resistance to that because it is now a

:50:00.:50:05.

constitutional issue between both UK Government and Welsh Government, but

:50:06.:50:08.

also the Scottish Government, Scottish Parliament and for my

:50:09.:50:14.

purposes, the National Assembly. This is not their week they

:50:15.:50:16.

committees of the National Assembly that have been doing significant

:50:17.:50:21.

work over the last year in working towards Brexit, this is not the way

:50:22.:50:24.

any of that work has visualised wanted to see. The Brexit being

:50:25.:50:31.

implemented across the countries of the United Kingdom. The trouble is,

:50:32.:50:36.

the UK Government is the member state and will be leading the

:50:37.:50:40.

negotiations. That is not much the Assembly can do. Yes, that is much

:50:41.:50:46.

the Assembly can do. The Assembly has the gift or not its consent to

:50:47.:50:53.

this bill as it is drafted. It doesn't seem as if there is a

:50:54.:51:00.

majority from day one to give that consent to this Bill as it is

:51:01.:51:09.

drafted. But it could be ignored? There is no statutory legal reason

:51:10.:51:13.

why the UK Government, it is more convention, or how do you see it

:51:14.:51:19.

panning out? It is not a good way to do Brexit, to give certainty to

:51:20.:51:22.

businesses and farmers and communities in Wales that one

:51:23.:51:26.

Parliament is ignoring the view of another Parliament. There are many

:51:27.:51:31.

ways in which this could be done better than the way the repeal Bill

:51:32.:51:35.

is putting forward at the moment. I want to use these next few weeks and

:51:36.:51:40.

months because time is running out, but the National Assembly has done

:51:41.:51:47.

much work on this already. It is in some underlying principles that

:51:48.:51:52.

could be there for the four countries on common frameworks can

:51:53.:51:56.

make use of powers on day one after Brexit. That can give the certainty

:51:57.:51:59.

that the UK Government is looking for in its negotiations with the EU.

:52:00.:52:08.

What would you do if it was ignored? If the vote in the legislative

:52:09.:52:15.

consent motion was passed at the Assembly to reject the fuel bill and

:52:16.:52:19.

the UK Government ignored it? If we go to that point, and I

:52:20.:52:24.

seriously hope we won't, I am confident the UK Government will

:52:25.:52:30.

work with us to redraft clause 11 which is particularly problematic of

:52:31.:52:34.

the EU withdrawal bill. If we got at that point where the view of the

:52:35.:52:39.

Assembly, the view of the Scottish Parliament elected bodies that have

:52:40.:52:44.

been elected and powers are thereby view of referenda that have happened

:52:45.:52:50.

in those in Scotland, is that he is ignored then we are in a

:52:51.:52:55.

constitutional crisis because people have voted for the legislative

:52:56.:53:02.

constitutional framework that we have currently. For that food to be

:53:03.:53:06.

ignored by any government of any political colour by any house of

:53:07.:53:13.

parliament is the constitutional crisis. I am hopeful that we won't

:53:14.:53:20.

get to that point. There are means of achieving the aims of the UK

:53:21.:53:24.

Government wants to achieve in its deliberations with the EU without

:53:25.:53:31.

having to have this constitutional showdown between their National

:53:32.:53:34.

Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and the UK Parliament. We will have

:53:35.:53:38.

to leave it there. Thank you very much indeed.

:53:39.:53:39.

Now, as the Assembly and Westminster get ready to shut up

:53:40.:53:42.

shop for the summer, which of our politicians can say

:53:43.:53:44.

With today's Wimbledon tennis final in mind

:53:45.:53:47.

Cemlyn Davies has been assessing their form

:53:48.:53:49.

to see who's been serving aces and whose efforts have hit the net.

:53:50.:54:08.

Politics has never been a love all game and it has been another

:54:09.:54:11.

year of gripping political drama with parties on all sides

:54:12.:54:15.

doing their very best to serve aces and catch their opponents out.

:54:16.:54:22.

An unexpected championship was called last month.

:54:23.:54:25.

As ever, there were winners and losers.

:54:26.:54:28.

In Cardiff Bay, the political toing and froing saw the

:54:29.:54:31.

Conservatives climb up the Assembly rankings overtaking Plaid Cymru

:54:32.:54:35.

as the second-largest group, thanks to a couple of

:54:36.:54:38.

It has been a good year for the Welsh Conservatives in the Assembly.

:54:39.:54:45.

We are the official opposition here in the Assembly.

:54:46.:54:47.

It does give us the ability to put extra scrutiny

:54:48.:54:50.

The Welsh Conservatives also made significant gains in the

:54:51.:54:53.

local elections, however the party's results a month later were less

:54:54.:54:57.

An electoral upset saw the Conservatives lose three Welsh

:54:58.:55:07.

seats at the general election as a tactical gamble backfired

:55:08.:55:10.

The overall vote share went up dramatically for us, up to 34%.

:55:11.:55:14.

Something we have not achieved for nearly 100 years in Wales.

:55:15.:55:17.

Sadly, we lost three very good colleagues.

:55:18.:55:19.

Would you have preferred to have greater influence

:55:20.:55:21.

As I said, it is easy to look back and to say, I told you so.

:55:22.:55:26.

We're working together with colleagues to make sure we were in

:55:27.:55:29.

the best place possible for the next set of elections.

:55:30.:55:31.

We have to learn the lessons of the last campaign.

:55:32.:55:34.

We had a very successful local government campaign in Wales, that

:55:35.:55:37.

was a Welsh-led campaign, a Welsh-led campaign that

:55:38.:55:40.

delivered real results for the Conservatives in Wales.

:55:41.:55:44.

Plaid Cymru broke serve in Ceredigion to gain a Parliamentary

:55:45.:55:47.

seat but the party failed to strike a blow into the target areas like

:55:48.:55:52.

the Rhondda where party leader Leanne Wood umed

:55:53.:55:55.

and aahed over standing before finally deciding not to.

:55:56.:55:59.

I am needed here in the National Assembly.

:56:00.:56:03.

This is where we want to become the biggest party.

:56:04.:56:08.

We are focusing now on the next set of Assembly elections.

:56:09.:56:12.

I will be the candidate for Plaid Cymru for First Minister

:56:13.:56:15.

Leanne Wood says she is disappointed by Plaid's fall

:56:16.:56:20.

in the Assembly rankings but she thinks there is still

:56:21.:56:22.

everything to play for and the scores could change again

:56:23.:56:26.

Strange things are happening in politics.

:56:27.:56:30.

Strange alliances and allegiances are being made, particularly because

:56:31.:56:33.

the Brexit question goes across different party divides.

:56:34.:56:37.

I think possibly the Assembly we have got now may not be

:56:38.:56:41.

And what about Dafydd Elis-Thomas's defection?

:56:42.:56:46.

I think the decision on his part was the right one for both of us.

:56:47.:56:51.

What about the Assembly's wild cards?

:56:52.:56:59.

Ukip are about to complete their first full year in Cardiff Bay.

:57:00.:57:05.

I think I have added a bit of colour to the proceedings

:57:06.:57:10.

as well which hasn't always been to everybody's taste.

:57:11.:57:15.

However, Ukip double-faulted in the elections this year

:57:16.:57:18.

and two of the party's once seven strong team in the Assembly

:57:19.:57:23.

have now called out since they were elected in 2016.

:57:24.:57:28.

Our big challenge for next year in the year after is

:57:29.:57:31.

to establish Ukip's purpose in a post-Brexit Britain.

:57:32.:57:36.

And so, as Westminster and Cardiff Bay head for

:57:37.:57:40.

a change of ends after some exhausting rallies, the parties will

:57:41.:57:44.

A chance to iron out the foot faults and prepare for the next volley

:57:45.:57:50.

So that's where we are, but what can we expect next?

:57:51.:57:58.

Dr Sam Blaxland from Swansea University is here with me now.

:57:59.:58:07.

Good morning. A great opportunity to take stock. Another extraordinary

:58:08.:58:14.

year. Let's kick off with the general election and Jeremy Corbyn's

:58:15.:58:19.

performance. I got the impression Welsh Labour whereabouts

:58:20.:58:22.

differentiating themselves from Jeremy Corbyn and lo and behold he

:58:23.:58:25.

was more popular than people thought. We can't make Windows into

:58:26.:58:34.

souls what would've happened if Corbyn would've taken the lead in

:58:35.:58:39.

Wales. It is the Corbyn factor. He is a very good campaigner, much

:58:40.:58:43.

better out on the streets. For people like me, of people of my

:58:44.:58:49.

generation, he is a breath of fresh air even though he is an OAP. He is

:58:50.:58:56.

a world away from the politics my generation grew up with in terms of

:58:57.:59:02.

Tony Blair. He had a huge impact for a lot of people. What is remarkable

:59:03.:59:07.

is he was saying a lot of socialist things, he had a very expensive

:59:08.:59:12.

manifesto and it was remarkable he went out and said all these things

:59:13.:59:16.

and wasn't challenged by the Conservatives. That was one of the

:59:17.:59:19.

significant features of the election. Let's talk about the

:59:20.:59:24.

Conservatives. A disappointing election. A second disappointing

:59:25.:59:30.

election result in Wales. It interrupted this narrative of

:59:31.:59:35.

progress and momentum that we have seen from a low base in the last 20

:59:36.:59:42.

years. What it boils down to is the share of the vote certain party gets

:59:43.:59:47.

isn't reflective of the seats they win. As Andrew RT Davies said, they

:59:48.:59:51.

got a high yet share of the vote than they did in 1993 but then

:59:52.:59:58.

proceeds fell. It is about the way everything aligned. Plaid Cymru, the

:59:59.:00:03.

share of their vote went down but they got more seats. It is

:00:04.:00:09.

confusing. The Conservative momentum stalled. If there was any momentum

:00:10.:00:15.

there. That's what Knutson said fault of the Conservatives. It came

:00:16.:00:18.

down to the fact that we have returned to this 2-party system. A

:00:19.:00:24.

great proportion of the vote was given to Labour and the

:00:25.:00:29.

Conservatives. The huge fault lines like Leanne Wood said, the big fault

:00:30.:00:33.

lines in politics are within the political parties themselves.

:00:34.:00:40.

It is a good point. On that, let's look at the party is caught in the

:00:41.:00:44.

middle. The Liberal Democrats, an obvious example here, expectation as

:00:45.:00:51.

we move to the future, how would you see the role they are going to

:00:52.:00:56.

undertake? Is there any way back. There should be a role for the

:00:57.:01:02.

Liberal Democrats, they represent 48%. Vince Cable is an interesting

:01:03.:01:06.

politician and I am glad he re-entered. For some reason, that is

:01:07.:01:13.

an impotence hanging around there. I don't know if that is a hangover

:01:14.:01:17.

from their coalition ears. Within the Labour Party and the

:01:18.:01:23.

Conservatives, there are grants of supporters who look far more like

:01:24.:01:27.

the Lib Dems than their leaderships. You have a socialist leadership for

:01:28.:01:32.

the Labour Party and the reasonable Conservative leadership for the

:01:33.:01:37.

Conservative Party. It isn't going to happen with if I made a wild

:01:38.:01:41.

prediction about the future of British politics there should be a

:01:42.:01:45.

real -- the realignment of the parties.

:01:46.:01:54.

Because of Brexit. Brexit has been the fundamental

:01:55.:01:59.

dividing point. Are we going to see a general election within the next

:02:00.:02:01.

year? When I came here last time I said,

:02:02.:02:09.

yes. Nye Bevan said you can't look into the crystal ball if you had the

:02:10.:02:12.

book. I don't make predictions about the future because it is bad. I

:02:13.:02:18.

don't think we will because who would want to go into it? We've got

:02:19.:02:27.

our Parliament. An element of self preservation for Conservative MPs.

:02:28.:02:32.

They should be able to tackle the line coming from the Labour Party.

:02:33.:02:36.

If there was another general election, if all of that was

:02:37.:02:40.

rewritten again, the Conservative should be able to tackle the big

:02:41.:02:45.

open goals on policy. There is one other element which is anecdotal but

:02:46.:02:54.

it is interesting. People were voting for Labour because they were

:02:55.:03:00.

voting against the complacency of the Conservative Party. That needs

:03:01.:03:05.

to be taken into consideration. In terms of Brexit, the role of the

:03:06.:03:09.

Assembly in all of this, briefly, what tact you think it'll take?

:03:10.:03:15.

It is hard to tell. Ultimately it is the second player here, the main

:03:16.:03:19.

constitutional aspect of it lies with Westminster, lies with people

:03:20.:03:26.

like David Davis. Thank you very much indeed.

:03:27.:03:26.

That's it from us for this series, we'll be back in September.

:03:27.:03:29.

Twitter never rests of course, we're @walespolitics.

:03:30.:03:31.

But for now that's all from me, time to go back to Andrew.

:03:32.:03:48.

This is the last Sunday Politics before Parliament breaks up for the

:03:49.:03:51.

summer recess, and most MPs could definitely do with some time away

:03:52.:03:54.

from the political hothouse at Westminster.

:03:55.:03:56.

But when they come back in September, both the Conservatives

:03:57.:03:58.

and Labour face some big questions over how to win an overall majority

:03:59.:04:01.

We'll talk about that in a moment, but first let's have a look at

:04:02.:04:07.

what's been happening to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn since polling day

:04:08.:04:10.

And what we are saying is the Conservatives are the largest party.

:04:11.:04:26.

Note they don't have an overall majority at this stage.

:04:27.:04:35.

She who dares doesn't always win. Now let's get to work. The party

:04:36.:04:45.

that has lost in this election is the Conservative Party. The

:04:46.:04:48.

arguments they put forward in this election have lost. I think we need

:04:49.:04:54.

a change. That's not quite true, Labour is a party that lost. The

:04:55.:05:03.

Government failed and her coming over here to try to speak to... Who?

:05:04.:05:10.

Who do you want to speak to you had your chance. Now everyone will go

:05:11.:05:12.

angry and crazy. I think the public will want us to

:05:13.:05:43.

get the broadest possible consensus in looking at those issues. If the

:05:44.:05:50.

Prime Minister would like it, I am happy to furnish her with a copy of

:05:51.:05:56.

our election manifesto. You are now playing for Arsenal! The

:05:57.:06:01.

comments we were getting back that were passed on to me were that we

:06:02.:06:06.

were going to get a better results than we did. Devastated enough to

:06:07.:06:19.

shed a tear? Yes, a little tear at that moment, yes.

:06:20.:06:23.

Let's start with Mrs May. Another day, another leadership rumour,

:06:24.:06:29.

challenge. She is tired, she wants to fight on, she doesn't. Is this

:06:30.:06:35.

corrosive to her leadership? Hugely corrosive. My estimation of what's

:06:36.:06:44.

really going on in the party, and Tory MPs in Westminster, is the vast

:06:45.:06:49.

majority and by that I mean probably around 300 don't want a contest.

:06:50.:06:54.

They want her to stay and finish Brexit, see it through, because of

:06:55.:06:58.

the incredible Pandora's box that would open. Who's putting these

:06:59.:07:03.

incredible column inches in the papers? They are giant egos, they

:07:04.:07:11.

have been at this for several years if not decades and they are keen to

:07:12.:07:19.

manoeuvre themselves into the position to be the leader. In their

:07:20.:07:24.

own interests? Because most Tories I speak to think the risk of another

:07:25.:07:28.

leadership election is horrendous for them because they fear it could

:07:29.:07:32.

lead to a general election and they will lose. The ones you are talking

:07:33.:07:36.

about, they put their own self-interest above the interest of

:07:37.:07:42.

their party. Without a doubt. They are funny bunch, we know them very

:07:43.:07:46.

well, but they are simply incapable of putting their own interests

:07:47.:07:49.

underneath those of the country. The problem for Mrs May is this won't

:07:50.:07:55.

stop. They are going to carry on doing this I think unless she says

:07:56.:07:59.

something about her own leadership and conference is the time to do it.

:08:00.:08:04.

She needs to spell out a timetable for herself, when she will stay and

:08:05.:08:10.

go. She almost did that, didn't she, in her interview with you. She came

:08:11.:08:17.

very close. I agree with almost everything Thomas said, but those on

:08:18.:08:23.

the backbenches who don't want a leadership contest, it's not purely

:08:24.:08:29.

for the good of the country, there is self-interest there too and that

:08:30.:08:32.

is because they are eyeing up the top job and they need a few years to

:08:33.:08:38.

build up a following. My view is people like Boris Johnson 's and

:08:39.:08:42.

Amber Rudd for their own reasons think they stand a better chance

:08:43.:08:46.

once Brexit is done. At the moment Mr Johnson too toxic for the

:08:47.:08:57.

Remainers, Amber Rudd too toxic for the Leavers. Last time Mrs May went

:08:58.:09:04.

walking in the hills, in Wales, she came back and called an election.

:09:05.:09:09.

She's about to go walking in the Swiss mountains I understand in the

:09:10.:09:13.

weeks ahead for a break. Is there any chance she comes back and says

:09:14.:09:18.

I'm not going on with this? No because although I think being a

:09:19.:09:23.

human being she will be deeply traumatised by what's happened, and

:09:24.:09:26.

it will probably hit her more intensely when she moves away for a

:09:27.:09:31.

few days from the cocoon drama of the whole situation, you just have

:09:32.:09:35.

to keep going and she will be walking and thinking what have I

:09:36.:09:39.

done? But she is clearly trying to hold on and she's built up a new

:09:40.:09:45.

Number Ten. Almost an entire new personnel in there. She's brought

:09:46.:09:49.

Damian Green in as a deputy so there's no sign she plans to go in

:09:50.:09:53.

the short-term but leadership is partly about a spell on us and her

:09:54.:09:59.

ministers. The fact that her ministers, even in her interview

:10:00.:10:04.

when she was being robust in two years, they know that she won't

:10:05.:10:07.

fight part of the next election which means part of the spell has

:10:08.:10:13.

gone. When Tony Blair gave a date for his departure, you could feel

:10:14.:10:17.

the power losing away from him. The fact that assumption is there means

:10:18.:10:22.

this feverish speculation will carry on until she goes. Let me come on to

:10:23.:10:29.

Mr Corbyn who would seem to be in a much better position after the

:10:30.:10:34.

election. What does he now do though? Because if you cannot

:10:35.:10:37.

provoke an election quite quickly, you never know how long your day in

:10:38.:10:43.

the sun will be. But he does have a mission or he and the people around

:10:44.:10:48.

him, they want to take control of those parts of the Labour Party they

:10:49.:10:53.

don't already take control, and they will probably do it. Absolutely, so

:10:54.:10:57.

Jeremy Corbyn has established he's a very good campaigner. Everybody now

:10:58.:11:03.

agrees on that. Look at the clip, he now dresses in a white shirt and a

:11:04.:11:08.

dark suit, and he actually looks I won't say Prime Minister Arial but

:11:09.:11:12.

like he could possibly lead the whole country. -- prime ministerial.

:11:13.:11:21.

But the whole thing is built on protests, there isn't a fully

:11:22.:11:23.

established policy set up where he is ready to take over the Government

:11:24.:11:28.

if this election comes. The challenge for him is to turn the

:11:29.:11:33.

huge generation of support he's got over protest into the ability to

:11:34.:11:38.

govern. You heard from Rebecca Long-Bailey on Brexit alone, the

:11:39.:11:43.

party now admitting their policy is cake and eat it, that is not

:11:44.:11:48.

electorally satisfying. Final word from Isabel. The fact is Mr Corbyn

:11:49.:11:53.

has been a transformative figure for the Labour Party. If and when he

:11:54.:12:00.

goes, it's not going back to normal. It is transformative for the Labour

:12:01.:12:04.

Party and the country. I disagree with Tom, they put forward a more

:12:05.:12:10.

detailed programme than the Conservatives at the election and be

:12:11.:12:15.

costed it to some extent. I think to be facing two weighs on Brexit is

:12:16.:12:19.

the only place for a Leader of the Opposition to beat and he has been

:12:20.:12:23.

smart on that. Tony Blair when he was a leader faced to microwaves on

:12:24.:12:28.

single currency, outside of Parliament he seemed be more robust,

:12:29.:12:37.

but he's played it very smart. All I would say is for Brexiteers we want

:12:38.:12:44.

more Tony Blair saying it won't happen. You think he's such a toxic

:12:45.:12:49.

figure that whatever side he supports damages that side?

:12:50.:12:55.

Absolutely, yes. As a leader of an opposition party you cannot advance

:12:56.:13:04.

things. All right, we will have to leave it there. Enjoy your summer.

:13:05.:13:06.

That's all for today, and that's all from us until September.

:13:07.:13:09.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics -

:13:10.:13:11.

unless it's parliament's summer recess.

:13:12.:13:19.

But for me it is thank you and goodbye.

:13:20.:13:54.

It was always a very, very deep love affair

:13:55.:13:57.

When I think of the world we inhabit, everyone will think,

:13:58.:14:00.

Yeah. And it wasn't, it was done by hand

:14:01.:14:03.

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones are joined by international trade secretary Liam Fox and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey for a look at Ukip's future direction. Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards are on the political panel.