09/07/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


09/07/2017

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones are joined by Labour MPs Caroline Flint and Emma Dent Coad, as well as the Conservatives' Owen Paterson MP.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38.:00:42.

Donald Trump says he wants to do a "powerful" trade deal

:00:43.:00:44.

Theresa May says other countries are ready to talk too.

:00:45.:00:48.

But could the transitional deal with the EU that some are pushing

:00:49.:00:51.

for scupper the Prime Minister's plans?

:00:52.:00:54.

Having defied expectation in last month's general election,

:00:55.:00:58.

are Jeremy Corbyn and his allies about to purge the party

:00:59.:01:01.

The deadliest fire in London since the Second World War has

:01:02.:01:08.

devastated a community and shocked Britain, but will the political

:01:09.:01:10.

storm that's blown up in its aftermath help uncover

:01:11.:01:13.

If the pay cap is lifted, who should pay for it,

:01:14.:01:20.

And the Education Secretary tells us why she's expecting

:01:21.:01:23.

a fall in GCSE results. Havering council are about to vote

:01:24.:01:25.

on breaking away from the capital. If we are darking today we apoll

:01:26.:01:47.

jierks it could be a power cut or the BBC is trying to save money with

:01:48.:01:53.

its fuel bill! Assuming you can see them...

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And with me - as always - for TV's second most keenly watched

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on-screen relationships after Love Island,

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the Sunday Politics panel - Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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So - Donald Trump says a trade deal with UK could be

:02:08.:02:09.

Theresa May says that other world leaders,

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including those of China, India and Japan, are also keen to do

:02:13.:02:15.

President and PM were speaking at the G20 summit of the world's major

:02:16.:02:20.

President and PM were speaking at the G20 summit of the world's major

:02:21.:02:24.

But could the transitional deal that some want,

:02:25.:02:27.

that would keep the UK in the EU's single market and Customs Union

:02:28.:02:30.

for several years after exit, put paid to those plans?

:02:31.:02:33.

Here's what the man likely to be the next Lib Dem leader -

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Vince Cable - told the Marr show earlier.

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I'm beginning to think that Brexit may never happen,

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The problems are so enormous, the divisions within the two major

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parties are so enormous, I can see a scenario

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We're joined now from Shropshire by the former

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Conservative Cabinet Minister and leading Brexit

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Ogise, it could be a power cut or the BBC is trying to save money with

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its fuel bill! Assuming you can see them... Good morning to you, Vince

:03:12.:03:14.

Cable says that he thinks Brexit may now not happen, what do you say to

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that? What is new? Vince Cable always wanted to stay in the

:03:19.:03:24.

European Union, he is chucking buckets of water round, we had a

:03:25.:03:27.

huge vote last year, we had an enormous vote in the House of

:03:28.:03:31.

Commons, 494 votes to trigger Article 50, we had an election

:03:32.:03:38.

campaign in which the two main parties took 85% of the vote they

:03:39.:03:43.

back the speech and leaving the customs union and the single market

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and the ECJ and Vince Cable's party went down in votes as did the other

:03:49.:03:51.

parties that want to stay in the European Union. So Vince is behind

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history, we are going to leave, we are on target, Michael Gove

:03:56.:04:01.

triggered leaving the 1964 London convention so we can take back

:04:02.:04:07.

control of the seas and bring back a sane fishing policy and more

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important getting environmental gained in our marine environment,

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so... You think we are still heading for the exit but Mrs May called the

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election because she wanted a mandate for her version of Brexit.

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She didn't get it. Surely you can't just continue with business as

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usual? Well, we have been over the election, we did not get the number

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of sees we wanted but on votes, we got 13.7 million, that is more than

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the great Blair landslide. You had an overall majority and you lost it.

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That is a fact. I said that. We know that. So you didn't get the mandate.

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We got the vote! We got a lot votes and so did the Labour Party. You

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know we are in a Parliamentary system where what matters is the

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number of seats you get in the Commons, you know enough about the

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British constitution to know a that is what determines the mandate. Not

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the number of votes, we are not a Presidential system.

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I am First Minister throughly wear of that. 85% of the election voted

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for parties that wanted to leave. If you take votes in the Commons last

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week on the Queen's Speech not a single Conservative MP abstained or

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voted against and the Labour Party unwisely, Chuka Umunna triggered and

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amendment wanting us to stay in the customs union and got hammered. So,

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I am clear that we have to deliver this, much the most important point

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in all this, is if we do not deliver a proper Brexit which means leaving

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the single market, leaving the customs union and the jurisdiction

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of the ECJ, there will be appalling damage to the integrity of the whole

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establishment. Not just political, you, the media, and the judicial

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establishment. Some would say that damage has already been done in

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other area, let us look at the detail. Under Article 50 Britain

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leaves the EU in 20 months which means the deal will have to be done

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in 15 or 16 months to allow for people to approve it in the various

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Parliaments and so son. Progress has the been glacial. We have only just

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begun. Why should there not be a transitional deal that keep some of

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the current arrangements in place to mitigate this falling off a cliff?

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As Liam said in the Commons, Liam who? Liam Fox, this should be one of

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the easiest ever deals to conclude, because already, we have zero

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tariffs, already we have complete conformty on standards and already,

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those who are negotiating with us have an enormous surplus, the

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Germans sold an enormous number of cars, so that is the basis on which,

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if you look at Nafta... We haven't even started talking about free

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trade yet. That is not on the agenda yet. Let me finish. If you look at

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Nafta, that took 14 months, we are starting on a basis of mutual

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recognition of all our standard and zero tariffs so yes, there will be

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an implementation period but it is very very important politically this

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is concluded fast, as a huge economic imperative as well, because

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it is uncertainty about this that will damage future investment and

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job, the quicker we get on with it and we know where we are going and

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we can reach out to the world, we can take advantage of the fact

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stated on the European Commission website that 9 a 5% of the world's

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growth is going to come from outside European Union, which is what we are

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seeing, we have seen sales go from 61% to 43% and it is tumbling to

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43%. We cannot take advantage of these wonderful opportunities in the

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wider world... Why not? Why not? Germany does. Because they can't

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conclude free trade deals. Germany runs a balance of payment surplus,

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it finds it possible to trade with the rest of the EU and with the rest

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of the world. It has a bigger surplus than China, if Germany can

:08:32.:08:36.

do both why can't we? They can't. They can't conclude deal, we Trump

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wants to do a deal with us. You saw Theresa May sitting down with the

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economies of the future, India, China, South Korea, these are all

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longing to do more business with us, we can only do that once we are out

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of the customs union, that is vital for the future of this country, that

:09:01.:09:05.

is where the future growth is. The business in this country says we

:09:06.:09:09.

should stay in the single market and the customs union, at least through

:09:10.:09:14.

a transition period. Does that count for nothing, is Tory party now so

:09:15.:09:21.

antebusiness it ignores the wealth creators? I think what you are

:09:22.:09:28.

saying is that the CBI which represents very large organisations

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has made that statement, but talking to business widely, and smaller

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private businesses which dominate the economy, what is vital on this

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is to have a rapid implementation period. That is what is important.

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And there has to be clarity of where we are going, if we are in permanent

:09:45.:09:50.

limbo which will take a enormous amount of negotiation and will take

:09:51.:09:55.

ratification by the 27 countries and the European Parliament as well as

:09:56.:09:57.

our own, that will drag things out. What we need to do is a clean Claire

:09:58.:10:03.

statement of reciprocal free trade which should be really pretty easy

:10:04.:10:08.

to negotiate because we have that, we have conformty of standard, we

:10:09.:10:12.

have an implementation period. That needs to be done rapidly. Latest by

:10:13.:10:17.

the next election. OK, we shall see how simple it turns out to be. Thank

:10:18.:10:20.

you for joining us here. What do you make of this increasing

:10:21.:10:27.

talk of transition period in which it is not clear, we remain full

:10:28.:10:31.

members of the single market, full members of the customs union? Which

:10:32.:10:36.

came we cannot conclude very quickly, in Mr Trump's word a free

:10:37.:10:41.

trade deal? This is where the battle is now heading, between Brexiteer,

:10:42.:10:47.

levers, re-levers and the lot of it. This will be really what the only

:10:48.:10:54.

thing we could achieve in the next negotiations, what has changed since

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the general election which you were touching on there, is of course

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Brussels in the year 2017 are no longer negotiating with Theresa May,

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they are negotiating with the House of Commons and the you know majority

:11:06.:11:11.

for a softer Brexit, so this will begin, the transition deal will

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define the rest of deal, the rest of the final relationship, so getting

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the transition on the right trajectory is crucial, hence why you

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have Philip Hammond making a major play to try and keep one foot in the

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EU, if not necessarily in the custom union and the single market and

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everyone else says get out. These are the opening skirmishes on what

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will certainly be the nettle that will will be grasped round about

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some time between October and spring next year. Are you worried that the

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election result, the fact that she didn't get this mandate that she had

:11:44.:11:47.

looked for and she has ended up in a weaker position than she was before

:11:48.:11:51.

the election, is going to make Brexit more difficult, it is going

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to muddy the water, it means her idea of Brexit is not necessarily

:11:56.:12:01.

the one that become Brexit? Yes I am worried are about as a Brexiteer,

:12:02.:12:06.

the same remain yaks would have been trying to scupper the will of the

:12:07.:12:13.

British people as expressed in June 2016. Now they might succeed. I

:12:14.:12:21.

don't think any will succeed. We have to stop this nonsense and the

:12:22.:12:26.

media included, of this talk of soft Brexit an transition period. We have

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a transition period once we are out when we are leading to the next

:12:30.:12:34.

process, with have to be out of the single market, and not under the

:12:35.:12:38.

European Court of Justice. All within the two years, all by

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March... That happens automatically, then we can agree for a two, three

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year max, three year period we will have a position as we move to the

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new deal, but I don't think there many Leave voters, most Remain

:12:56.:12:58.

voters accept that result, unlike the people like the CBI who are

:12:59.:13:02.

fighting against it still, they will accept anything more than that. I

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think Owen Paterson is right. We are in a situation where we will face

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some serious disflus the establishment, the political world,

:13:13.:13:15.

the Melissa Reidia if we don't obey the will of the people. What do you

:13:16.:13:23.

make of the reports in the Sunday papers, it was only ten days ago,

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two weeks' ago Mr Hammond was going to be the caretaker leader, that is

:13:28.:13:32.

a story that didn't seem to last 48-hour, but what do you make of the

:13:33.:13:38.

remain MPs on both sides of the House, plus peers, are going to try

:13:39.:13:45.

to derail this repeal act, that the Government needs to push EU law on

:13:46.:13:51.

to the UK statute book. I I think they will use it to at certain key

:13:52.:13:56.

points to attempt to defeat the Government, not over the whole

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thing, this summer reminds me so much of the summer of 92 who the

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Maastricht Treaty coming into a fragile John Major Government, and

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people then were plotting, in the opposite direction, Eurosceptics to

:14:12.:14:14.

try and stop that. He won with a huge percentage of the vote. Tiny

:14:15.:14:19.

majority, 23, bigger than she would have died for that. A shock victory.

:14:20.:14:28.

The The summer was full of talk and plotting, some which came to

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fruition in the sessions after and some will come into fruition from

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this autumn on ward where you will see alliances across the Commons

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manned the Lords, there will be moments of high Parliamentary drama,

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I think. Sounds like a long hot autumn.

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An a long hot autumn, and winter. Winter too? I thought it was all

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global warming. This will add to the temperature!

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Now, Jeremy Corbyn may not have won the election,

:15:02.:15:04.

but by confounding almost everyone's expectations he is unassailable

:15:05.:15:06.

as Labour leader for the foreseeable future.

:15:07.:15:07.

So what does that mean for his MPs, most of whom - just a year ago -

:15:08.:15:11.

Labour's new chairman and key cupping Ally said last week the

:15:12.:15:20.

party may be too broad church. He also seemed to endorse the idea of

:15:21.:15:25.

deselecting labour MPs critical of the leadership by saying if you get

:15:26.:15:29.

deselected there must be a reason. But he has since wrote back from his

:15:30.:15:34.

comments in another interview. Chris Williamson, the newly appointed

:15:35.:15:37.

labour frontbencher said some of his colleagues in the Parliamentary

:15:38.:15:41.

party think they have a God-given right to rule. He also said that if

:15:42.:15:47.

MPs don't support the leadership's programme, local constituency

:15:48.:15:51.

parties should find someone else who will. And in the seat of liveable

:15:52.:15:57.

waiver treats this week, left wing supporters of Jeremy Corbyn won

:15:58.:16:02.

several positions on the committee. One said she must get on board quite

:16:03.:16:07.

quickly now, and also publicly apologise for not supporting Mr

:16:08.:16:13.

Corbyn in the past. Some Labour MPs rushed to Luciano Berger's defends.

:16:14.:16:23.

Elsewhere, a list of 49 Labour MPs was published, and they said these

:16:24.:16:26.

usual suspects should join the Liberals. The list included

:16:27.:16:30.

prominent former frontbencher is like Chris Leslie, Chuka Umunna and

:16:31.:16:34.

tidying -- Heidi Alexander. And this is what the Shadow

:16:35.:16:39.

Education Secretary and Jeremy Corbyn ally,

:16:40.:16:41.

Angela Rayner, had to say earlier. Anyone that talks of deselecting

:16:42.:16:44.

any of my colleagues, frankly they need to think

:16:45.:16:46.

about actually, who are Who are making the problems

:16:47.:16:48.

for our communities at the moment? Who have made those disastrous

:16:49.:16:55.

policies that are hurting the people It doesn't help them if we're

:16:56.:16:57.

fighting each other. We're joined now from

:16:58.:17:01.

Sheffield by former Labour Cabinet Minister,

:17:02.:17:02.

Caroline Flint. Welcome to the programme. Labour

:17:03.:17:14.

frontbencher Chris Williamson has said, where Labour MPs don't support

:17:15.:17:20.

the leadership's programme it's incumbent on local members to find

:17:21.:17:24.

someone else who will. What do you make of that? I think it's very sad

:17:25.:17:35.

that talk of deselection is the line people are taking. We had an

:17:36.:17:41.

election where 262 Labour MPs, very different ones, have all won a

:17:42.:17:47.

mandate from their electorate and our job is, as Angela Rayner said

:17:48.:17:51.

this morning, is to focus on a government that is in disarray and

:17:52.:17:55.

how we can learn from the general election to broaden our appeal but

:17:56.:17:58.

also develop our policy is ready in time for the next election whenever

:17:59.:18:02.

that is called so I think all talk of deselection is misplaced and

:18:03.:18:09.

doesn't help Labour. But do you feel a purge of what is often referred to

:18:10.:18:15.

as the moderates in your party is now inevitable? No, because we have

:18:16.:18:20.

been here before in the 1980s when talk of deselection was suggested,

:18:21.:18:23.

it didn't happen in the way people thought it would, and I do believe,

:18:24.:18:28.

hearing how Ian Lee very, and I have worked with him in the 2010, 2015

:18:29.:18:38.

government and I have worked with Chris Williamson, Ian has already

:18:39.:18:45.

refined what he said, and what he's clearly was this deselection talk

:18:46.:18:49.

and the way to go ahead on it is not the right way forward. We to focus

:18:50.:18:55.

on looking outwards to understand that we have across the party

:18:56.:18:59.

hard-working Labour MPs with maybe different views across the Labour

:19:00.:19:02.

political spectrum, and I would have to say that Luciana is one of the

:19:03.:19:13.

most hard-working MPs in Parliament and homework on mental health is

:19:14.:19:17.

outstanding. That may be true, let's look at Luciana Berger's

:19:18.:19:23.

constituency. One of the committee members on her committee says she

:19:24.:19:28.

now has to get on board quite quickly. And even publicly apologise

:19:29.:19:36.

for past disloyalty. The direction of travel is clear, isn't it? That

:19:37.:19:43.

is one person on a committee in one constituency... Where there is a

:19:44.:19:47.

majority for that point of view now. I don't think there is, and the

:19:48.:19:56.

truth is... They took nine seat. Her constituency is all of the members

:19:57.:20:00.

in that constituency and what I would say, and I don't know this

:20:01.:20:03.

individual, look at the track record of Luciana and what she has done.

:20:04.:20:12.

Jeremy, in the 20 years I have been an MP under both Tony Blair and

:20:13.:20:16.

Gordon Brown, voted against the Labour whip on numerous occasions,

:20:17.:20:20.

he has been very upfront and honest about this, do you know in those 20

:20:21.:20:26.

years I never heard anybody say about Jeremy or anybody else who

:20:27.:20:30.

didn't vote with the Labour whip that they should face deselection or

:20:31.:20:35.

apologise. I think that represents the broad church of the Labour Party

:20:36.:20:40.

and we should look at what brings us together rather than differences on

:20:41.:20:44.

policy point of view and we should be looking outwards and dealing with

:20:45.:20:48.

that and working on it. You have said that three times but it has not

:20:49.:20:53.

happened and it may be that the people around Mr Corbyn, they think

:20:54.:20:56.

moderates like you, your day is over. You lost the 2015 election

:20:57.:21:02.

badly, you allowed Jeremy Corbyn to stand as leader, you failed to stop

:21:03.:21:06.

him twice, you thought he would make a mess of the June election and he

:21:07.:21:11.

didn't. Can you blame his supporters for wanting a career out of people

:21:12.:21:15.

who took these positions? I think there are some people who supported

:21:16.:21:19.

and still support Jeremy who feel that way but I don't believe they

:21:20.:21:25.

represent the people who supported Jeremy, and I don't believe Jeremy

:21:26.:21:28.

thinks this is in the best interests of the party. Only a few weeks ago

:21:29.:21:33.

John McDonnell praised my work on tax transparency. Since my election

:21:34.:21:39.

I have bumped into Jeremy and we have had a chat about what happened

:21:40.:21:42.

in the election and Jeremy recognises that we were up against

:21:43.:21:51.

an arrogant Tory party and has said to me he does understand this and

:21:52.:21:56.

said to the broader Parliamentary Labour Party... If I could just

:21:57.:22:02.

finish... What has he said about deselection? For example he said to

:22:03.:22:11.

me that he recognised that we have won in numerous places in

:22:12.:22:17.

outstanding circumstances but he's also said to me that he recognises

:22:18.:22:21.

that we need to broaden our reach and understand why we were

:22:22.:22:24.

working-class voters. That says to me that that is a leader who is up

:22:25.:22:31.

for and open to looking at the reasons why we were successful and

:22:32.:22:34.

the reasons we weren't and he wasn't closing down conversation on that. I

:22:35.:22:40.

take him on his word on that. He has not said that publicly. What we need

:22:41.:22:45.

from a leader is to challenge our party about where to go next and he

:22:46.:22:50.

has said that, Diane Abbott has said at a conference I was at a few weeks

:22:51.:22:55.

ago that we need now to look at our manifesto and look more clearly

:22:56.:22:59.

issues around tax and spend policies because obviously clearly now we

:23:00.:23:01.

have more time to look at those issues and also we may be facing a

:23:02.:23:05.

very different election when the time comes. That's what I want from

:23:06.:23:09.

the leadership team, talk about how we improve our message and reach,

:23:10.:23:14.

and by doing that get away from what song, a minority I have to say, are

:23:15.:23:24.

saying about deselection. Corbynistas like Paul Mason think

:23:25.:23:27.

moderates like you were to blame for the defeat. He said moderates were

:23:28.:23:32.

always attacking Mr Corbyn, that is quite popular view in the Jeremy

:23:33.:23:44.

Corbyn wing. I think that is Paul Mason's view and he is fundamentally

:23:45.:23:48.

wrong. When we look at the results of the last election, we can see a

:23:49.:23:53.

continuing from 2015 where Labour is losing support among older voters

:23:54.:23:58.

and what we see is in this election in 2017 Labour has... I think we are

:23:59.:24:05.

at our highest point amongst the middle-class voters compared to

:24:06.:24:10.

where we were in 1979 but the Tories are highest among working-class

:24:11.:24:15.

voters since 1979 as well. Those working-class voters weren't voting

:24:16.:24:19.

for a more left alternative to Labour and sadly they were voting

:24:20.:24:23.

Tory and we have to address that because our party is this broad

:24:24.:24:27.

church and representing working-class people is at the heart

:24:28.:24:29.

of what the Labour Party is about and that's a discussion we need to

:24:30.:24:33.

have. That is the depth of discussion we need to get into. That

:24:34.:24:39.

would put's with a fighting chance of taking on a Tory party that is in

:24:40.:24:46.

disarray. Caroline Flint, thank you for joining us.

:24:47.:24:48.

This week it was announced that the Grenfell Tower inquiry

:24:49.:24:50.

would hold its first public hearings in September, as it prepares

:24:51.:24:53.

to begin to examine what caused the tragedy.

:24:54.:24:55.

But some have warned that the situation now needs

:24:56.:24:57.

to be de-politicised, or it will damage

:24:58.:24:59.

In a moment we'll hear from the MP for Kensington and Chelsea

:25:00.:25:02.

where the Grenfell Tower fire took place.

:25:03.:25:04.

But first Emma Vardy looks at how political arguments have played

:25:05.:25:07.

a significant part in the aftermath of this terrible event.

:25:08.:25:22.

When you come here and you actually see it, your immediate thoughts

:25:23.:25:27.

are about the people, not about the politics.

:25:28.:25:31.

What happened up there is just so difficult to comprehend.

:25:32.:25:44.

storm that those in power struggled to respond to.

:25:45.:25:46.

We want justice, we want justice, we want justice...

:25:47.:25:51.

People vented their anger outside Kensington town Hall.

:25:52.:25:58.

A visit to the Grenfell site by Theresa May saw her forced

:25:59.:26:01.

At Prime Minister's Questions, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn linked

:26:02.:26:09.

What the tragedy of Grenfell Tower has exposed is a disastrous

:26:10.:26:15.

And speaking at Glastonbury, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

:26:16.:26:19.

Those families, those individuals, 79 so far and there will be more,

:26:20.:26:26.

were murdered by political decisions that were taken over recent decades.

:26:27.:26:37.

I can't remember a major national tragedy that has been politicised

:26:38.:26:39.

I think using terms like murder is completely reckless

:26:40.:26:45.

The key thing is that we try to ascertain the facts

:26:46.:26:53.

this tragedy occurred to ensure it can never be repeated.

:26:54.:26:57.

And as soon as you introduce emotive phrases or emotive accusations

:26:58.:26:59.

or emotive allegations of that nature, then the discourse

:27:00.:27:02.

The whole debate around the tragedy becomes politicised and it makes it

:27:03.:27:08.

Some argue the political language that was used was wrong and helped

:27:09.:27:17.

to ramp up the vitriol in an unhelpful way, but

:27:18.:27:21.

for others, it was entirely justified.

:27:22.:27:26.

That's what an opposition party is for, it's to challenge

:27:27.:27:29.

the Government and to ask the right questions and I think people

:27:30.:27:35.

round here would say thank goodness, there's somebody in politics

:27:36.:27:38.

Pilgrim Tucker had helped Grenfell Tower residents campaign

:27:39.:27:41.

for building improvements in previous years, and returned

:27:42.:27:43.

I've been to meetings before the fire and I've been

:27:44.:27:47.

to meetings since the fire, attended by ordinary residents

:27:48.:27:50.

with no involvement in politics and they are saying very political

:27:51.:27:54.

things about land in London and property ownership in London,

:27:55.:27:57.

Had we campaigned harder, would we have prevented this?

:27:58.:28:01.

Fire safety campaigners say they were trying to draw attention

:28:02.:28:06.

to certain issues long before what happened at Grenfell Tower,

:28:07.:28:11.

and say it's no one political party but the whole system has failed.

:28:12.:28:23.

It's easy to say, "You've got an inquiry, let's wait for that."

:28:24.:28:26.

We already know two very clear things.

:28:27.:28:28.

Had the people there been protected by sprinklers,

:28:29.:28:29.

People don't die in homes protected by sprinklers.

:28:30.:28:32.

The second thing is the outrage that the building regulations had

:28:33.:28:35.

They should be done year in, year out.

:28:36.:28:39.

Generally people in house fires die in ones, twos

:28:40.:28:41.

or threes, which doesn't make a political statement.

:28:42.:28:43.

So the political parties haven't really needed

:28:44.:28:44.

They weren't prepared for 70 or more people to die at once

:28:45.:28:50.

The public inquiry, which will address some of those issues,

:28:51.:28:53.

has already faced calls for its newly appointed

:28:54.:28:55.

And that was a view echoed by the Labour MP

:28:56.:28:59.

You would call on him, would you, to stand down?

:29:00.:29:05.

I don't think there will be any credibility and some people

:29:06.:29:10.

are saying they won't cooperate with it so it's not going to work.

:29:11.:29:13.

I will look into this matter to the very best of my ability...

:29:14.:29:18.

I think the attacks on the chair have to cease, I think the attacks

:29:19.:29:21.

It actually makes it harder to get to the facts and get

:29:22.:29:28.

to the truth and that's the most important thing now.

:29:29.:29:33.

Some said it was unavoidable that this tragedy became political,

:29:34.:29:35.

but will the politics help get to the truth?

:29:36.:29:44.

I'm joined now by the Labour MP for Kensington -

:29:45.:29:46.

who we heard at the end of that film - Emma Dent Coad.

:29:47.:29:49.

Now this judge, leading the Grenfell inquiry, have you met him? I haven't

:29:50.:30:01.

met him, no. So what evidence do you have that he doesn't in your words

:30:02.:30:05.

understand human beings? Well, I am reflecting what people are telling

:30:06.:30:09.

me out there, that they as soon as his name was announced everybody

:30:10.:30:14.

looked up his credentials, they found a particular case he had been

:30:15.:30:19.

involved in, the very issue that people are most worried about, post

:30:20.:30:23.

Grenfell is they will be moved out of the borough somewhere else. This

:30:24.:30:28.

issue about social cleansing. It was insensitive to have chosen somebody

:30:29.:30:31.

with that on his record. Whether he made that decision according to the

:30:32.:30:35.

rules. It is one judgment in a long career, he may be able to defend

:30:36.:30:40.

what he did. You have said he doesn't understand human beings but

:30:41.:30:44.

you have told us you have never met him? It is nothing to do with

:30:45.:30:48.

meeting him. It is the system where people have to be friends in order

:30:49.:30:52.

to work together, judged by the evidence, judge by what people have

:30:53.:30:55.

done that, judge by merit and whether or not you can be friendly.

:30:56.:30:59.

What has he done wrong in his career? It is symbolic the issue he

:31:00.:31:05.

made a decision about, it is symbolic for everybody. I am

:31:06.:31:08.

reflecting the community who are been betrayed. You don't think in

:31:09.:31:12.

your often view you don't take the view he doesn't understand human

:31:13.:31:16.

beings. Personally I do. I do actually but I am reflecting what

:31:17.:31:19.

people are saying, the people who elected me, who have been badly

:31:20.:31:23.

betrayed by the authority, they are seeing it that way, they have been

:31:24.:31:29.

betrayed and now they see you know, they worst fear is this will be used

:31:30.:31:34.

top socially cleanse north Kensington. What is the evidence for

:31:35.:31:39.

that? About social cleansing? No, this will be used to do so. Whether

:31:40.:31:43.

or not there is ever, there is no trust in somebody who has been part

:31:44.:31:48.

of that process. He has been chosen by the Lord Chief Justice, not as

:31:49.:31:51.

the Prime Minister as some have said. He has a long ex perness of

:31:52.:31:58.

commercial contracts and disaster, both of which will be vital. It is a

:31:59.:32:02.

lot to do with overlapping commercial contract, he is a

:32:03.:32:07.

specialist in that area, what bit doesn't make his qualified and and

:32:08.:32:11.

doesn't he reflect the independence of the judiciary? Well, we certainly

:32:12.:32:15.

need somebody who can do the detail. This is a human disaster as much as

:32:16.:32:19.

anything else. We need somebody who, we saw in the meeting there, there

:32:20.:32:23.

is a lot of anger and people aren't trusting. . That would be true, we

:32:24.:32:27.

all understand the anger, of course, but that would be true whoever was

:32:28.:32:32.

chosen. Are you really after... Do you want someone to head up this

:32:33.:32:36.

inquiry that will give you a show trial rather than an independent

:32:37.:32:40.

inquiry. It is exactly the opposite. . Woe won't give us a show trial, is

:32:41.:32:44.

he? If there is no trust, people won't co-operate with him. A lot of

:32:45.:32:48.

people will need to co-operate with him. Some of the groups are not

:32:49.:32:53.

involved, they are protest groups who are not representing the

:32:54.:33:00.

victims, or the survivors, we have very little evidence that those who

:33:01.:33:04.

directly affected by this are saying they are not going to co-operate.

:33:05.:33:09.

Well, everybody who lives round there is a victim to some extent,

:33:10.:33:13.

they have all been affected, myself as well, I live three blocksia from

:33:14.:33:17.

it and a lot of the groups are very much involved in that community, not

:33:18.:33:21.

only the people who lived there who survived, but some of the campaign

:33:22.:33:25.

groups have been campaigning for years about social housing in area.

:33:26.:33:29.

What sort of person to you think should head up the inquiry is this

:33:30.:33:35.

If it has to be Martin, we need an advisory panel with representatives

:33:36.:33:39.

from different groups who can at least advise and feed in

:33:40.:33:43.

information, at least if we have no choice, we need at least that. But

:33:44.:33:47.

rather than him, what sort of person? I am not sure, are you

:33:48.:33:52.

saying he should remain but he needs to be assisted by a panel or he

:33:53.:33:57.

should be replaced? If we have no choice, then we should have an

:33:58.:34:01.

advisory panel to back it up. Something that people trust in. At

:34:02.:34:04.

the moment they don't trust the process, which is understandable,

:34:05.:34:08.

and his name was announced the same day as the Hillsborough disaster,

:34:09.:34:12.

the criminal investigation and so on, that after 28 year, this is what

:34:13.:34:16.

people, how people see it. They want, they don't trust the process s

:34:17.:34:20.

it won't work proppism it is not just what I think, it is what people

:34:21.:34:25.

who are directly involved thing. John McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor

:34:26.:34:29.

says people who died at Grenfell were murdered by political decision

:34:30.:34:33.

do you agree? That is a strong way of putting it. I know a lot of

:34:34.:34:38.

people feel like that. There is massive failure of political

:34:39.:34:41.

decision, I have seen that happening. But murder? That is an

:34:42.:34:46.

active verb. It means you intended to kill. So for Mr McDonnell to be

:34:47.:34:52.

right, these were political decisions taken intended to kill. I

:34:53.:34:55.

don't share his view on that particular issue, there has been a

:34:56.:34:59.

failure of care, for many, many years and a failure of investment

:35:00.:35:03.

for many year, as I have seen myself. But part of the problem has

:35:04.:35:09.

been investment. They had nine million spent on this block I was

:35:10.:35:13.

looking at it today, the other tower blocks round it have not been clad.

:35:14.:35:19.

Of course if they had gone on fire, the disaster would not have been on

:35:20.:35:24.

the same scale. Nine million helped to produce this. In indeed. The

:35:25.:35:29.

process of how that building was refurbished. It says it is to make

:35:30.:35:36.

it look better, half a mile down the road, the tower blocks have been

:35:37.:35:39.

clad, they were clad in mineral wool. I spent a day at a seminar by

:35:40.:35:46.

chance understanding, it is non-combustible. Who made that

:35:47.:35:53.

decision to use rain cladding rather than mineral wool. You were on the

:35:54.:36:00.

the board of who took that decision. The council had no say about the

:36:01.:36:03.

specification, we didn't have any involvement at all. It didn't come

:36:04.:36:08.

before you, because it has tenants on it too. The TMO does, The

:36:09.:36:14.

advisory committee to the TMO. There is the TMO. I was not there at the

:36:15.:36:20.

time. As far as I understand a sub group decided or reviewed the

:36:21.:36:23.

specifications of that. The housing and property committee is part of

:36:24.:36:29.

the council. Obviously you a say, but whether or not, we don't have

:36:30.:36:33.

any say at all over specification, I want to say somebody because I have

:36:34.:36:40.

been accused of... That because my predecessor said I should take

:36:41.:36:45.

responsibility, a clueing colleague of mine got beaten up for that,

:36:46.:36:48.

there is no foundation for that allegation. I thank you for clearing

:36:49.:36:53.

that up. Thank you for joining us too.

:36:54.:36:59.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:00.:37:01.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:02.:37:03.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead.

:37:04.:37:07.

First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.

:37:08.:37:14.

Hello, and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.

:37:15.:37:19.

In a few minutes, the Education Secretary tells us what she's

:37:20.:37:21.

going to do about an expected fall in GCSE results this year.

:37:22.:37:27.

But first the main political row of the week has been about the pay

:37:28.:37:30.

Should it be abandoned and if so, who should cough up the extra money?

:37:31.:37:35.

Ministers here say it's down to Westminster to pay,

:37:36.:37:38.

and guess what, ministers there say the opposite!

:37:39.:37:41.

How much should public sector workers be paid?

:37:42.:37:48.

Or rather, how much more should they be paid?

:37:49.:37:51.

It's a question that's dominated the headlines in recent weeks amidst

:37:52.:37:54.

increasing pressure on the UK Government to scrap its 1% cap

:37:55.:37:57.

Neil Evans is an A nurse with 16 years experience at the Princess

:37:58.:38:05.

He'd like to sit more exams and gain extra qualifications,

:38:06.:38:12.

but he says the pay cap has made him consider leaving the job altogether.

:38:13.:38:16.

I've taken a second job with a health care bank,

:38:17.:38:19.

with another health board as well as my own.

:38:20.:38:21.

That's what I'm finding a lot of my colleagues are doing.

:38:22.:38:30.

What we call health care bank, they are doing agency,

:38:31.:38:32.

they are doing what they can to survive every month.

:38:33.:38:34.

They work full time, come out of university with degrees,

:38:35.:38:38.

and a lot of us have been in the job a long time.

:38:39.:38:41.

I have, seriously considered packing it in.

:38:42.:38:46.

Taking a job in a supermarket, or somewhere less stressful.

:38:47.:38:48.

Unless nurses are offered a better deal, the Royal College of Nursing

:38:49.:38:51.

says it is prepared to do something it's never done before,

:38:52.:38:55.

and ballot its members for industrial action.

:38:56.:38:59.

Why are we putting our nurses in that position?

:39:00.:39:03.

Why are the politicians not removing the cap?

:39:04.:39:07.

It's forcing public sector workers into poverty.

:39:08.:39:10.

And we are a rich country, it's possible to find money

:39:11.:39:12.

from areas to do things, why isn't it possible to find money

:39:13.:39:17.

The UK Government makes its decisions on public pay

:39:18.:39:27.

after receiving recommendations from eight independent pay review

:39:28.:39:29.

bodies, who consider the needs to recruit,

:39:30.:39:32.

They also consider the government's financial circumstances,

:39:33.:39:41.

and since 2010 public sector pay has either been frozen or

:39:42.:39:44.

Despite inflation, currently merging 3%.

:39:45.:39:50.

The Welsh government could deviate from the policy,

:39:51.:39:52.

and scrap the cap year for public sector staff working

:39:53.:39:54.

If Westminster, through the Treasury, isn't giving

:39:55.:40:01.

additional resources to the Welsh government to go beyond the 1% pay

:40:02.:40:04.

cap that is provided for in the settlement,

:40:05.:40:08.

then that will come from the Welsh government's own resources,

:40:09.:40:11.

and will be taken from other areas of the budget, front

:40:12.:40:14.

So it comes down to the basic political question about

:40:15.:40:19.

where the priorities on in the Welsh government budget.

:40:20.:40:22.

The Welsh government says it would cost around ?110 million

:40:23.:40:26.

to give public sector workers in Wales an extra 1%

:40:27.:40:30.

With around ?60 million needed for the 76,000

:40:31.:40:34.

Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, believes that is affordable.

:40:35.:40:40.

If it is a priority for Labour UK wide, it should be a priority

:40:41.:40:44.

We are calling upon the Welsh government to commit

:40:45.:40:50.

We've estimated the cost of this to be around 60 odd million pounds,

:40:51.:40:56.

in a budget of ?15 billion, that can be found, if it's

:40:57.:41:00.

It's not a sensible course of action for me to spend Welsh money

:41:01.:41:06.

So, no, the way we will do it is to put pressure on the UK

:41:07.:41:14.

Government to add our voices to voices in the UK Cabinet

:41:15.:41:17.

and to say to the UK Government, now is the time to do this.

:41:18.:41:20.

Lift the cap and give us the money so we can do that in Wales.

:41:21.:41:24.

Are there any circumstances in which you would be prepared

:41:25.:41:26.

to use Welsh government finances to ease the burden on public

:41:27.:41:29.

We try and use the money we have with the best possible way,

:41:30.:41:36.

that includes creating jobs in the Welsh public sector.

:41:37.:41:39.

What we can't do is put ourselves in a position that

:41:40.:41:43.

others need to be in, responsibilities that lie at the UK

:41:44.:41:45.

level must be answered by the UK Government.

:41:46.:41:50.

The Scottish Government claim that they are introducing a policy

:41:51.:41:53.

to scrap the cap in Scotland that will benefit public sector

:41:54.:41:57.

Why are they able to do that, and you're not?

:41:58.:42:02.

Well, the Barnett Formula has always treated Scotland far more

:42:03.:42:05.

They've always had more money at their disposal than we do.

:42:06.:42:12.

I have to say it's not entirely clear to me what the Scottish

:42:13.:42:15.

This week the BMA doctors' union backed Leanne Wood's call,

:42:16.:42:21.

but the Royal College of Nursing supports the Government's stance.

:42:22.:42:24.

It's not for devolved administrations to say

:42:25.:42:27.

It's the Treasury increased to public sector pay we require,

:42:28.:42:34.

Let's have it delivered to the public sector workforce.

:42:35.:42:38.

The UK Treasury told us the Welsh government is responsible for public

:42:39.:42:41.

sector pay covering most devolved services in Wales.

:42:42.:42:46.

And its own pay policy is designed to be fair.

:42:47.:42:53.

Now in a few weeks time students here will be

:42:54.:42:55.

getting their GCSE results, but this year the marks in English,

:42:56.:42:58.

Welsh and Maths are expected to be down on previous years.

:42:59.:43:02.

That's being blamed on schools entering more year 10

:43:03.:43:05.

pupils to sit exams, a year earlier than is intended.

:43:06.:43:09.

When I spoke to the Education Secretary during a school visit this

:43:10.:43:12.

week, I asked Kirsty Williams about that dropoff.

:43:13.:43:21.

I do think we have to acknowledge there

:43:22.:43:23.

are a combination of factors here that could see a drop

:43:24.:43:26.

First of all, we have are more rigorous GCSE exams

:43:27.:43:30.

We are seeing a change in the cohort of students

:43:31.:43:33.

who are taking science GCSEs, for instance, whereas before

:43:34.:43:36.

you would have seen significant numbers take BTEC science,

:43:37.:43:40.

we've recognised that qualification is not as rigorous

:43:41.:43:43.

as we would like it, so we are going to have more

:43:44.:43:45.

Most worrying of all for me, is a big change in the way

:43:46.:43:51.

in which students are being entered for exams.

:43:52.:43:54.

We are seeing significant numbers of students being entered

:43:55.:43:56.

earlier for qualifications, and I think those combination

:43:57.:43:59.

of factors could well see a drop in the overall points

:44:00.:44:02.

In terms of the new qualifications, there's a new English

:44:03.:44:10.

and a new Welsh GCSE, unique to Wales being sat

:44:11.:44:12.

If it's more rigorous, OK, fine, but surely,

:44:13.:44:17.

there should have been, built into the system,

:44:18.:44:19.

this comparative outcomes where qualifications in Wales

:44:20.:44:23.

were telling schools no child should be advantaged or disadvantaged

:44:24.:44:26.

Does that mean something has gone wrong then?

:44:27.:44:31.

No, I don't think anything has gone wrong.

:44:32.:44:33.

Obviously, qualifications Wales is an arms length

:44:34.:44:38.

from the Welsh government, and the Welsh government

:44:39.:44:40.

don't interfere in the examination process.

:44:41.:44:41.

But there is a well known and well understood phenomena that

:44:42.:44:47.

when you introduce new exams, new qualifications, you can

:44:48.:44:50.

reasonably expect a drop because teachers may not be quite

:44:51.:44:57.

so familiar, and, as teachers and the course becomes

:44:58.:45:01.

bedded in you'll see those grades rise again.

:45:02.:45:04.

But, more importantly than that, the exam is fundamentally different,

:45:05.:45:06.

how we examine English and are examining mathematics

:45:07.:45:09.

means that it's not fair to make direct comparisons.

:45:10.:45:13.

What's more, I welcome that, we need rigorous exams.

:45:14.:45:15.

What I'm concerned about is this phenomena that we've

:45:16.:45:21.

seen in significant numbers this summer...

:45:22.:45:25.

Will come back to that in a second, but is it fair for the pupils

:45:26.:45:29.

sitting on the exam this year that it's more rigorous, that they might

:45:30.:45:32.

have got a B last year, but they might get a C,

:45:33.:45:35.

or a D, this year because it is a more rigorous system?

:45:36.:45:40.

I want to be in the system, I want to be in charge

:45:41.:45:44.

of a system that demands rigger from that system.

:45:45.:45:47.

Well, it's fair that we are ensuring our children are leaving school

:45:48.:45:52.

with the skills and qualifications they will need to be

:45:53.:45:55.

Whether that's going on to further education,

:45:56.:45:58.

The individual marking is not a matter for me,

:45:59.:46:02.

it's a matter for qualifications Wales and the WJ EC.

:46:03.:46:06.

They will want to ensure that there is famous, of course,

:46:07.:46:09.

but we cannot move away from a system that demands rigger

:46:10.:46:12.

of our students, of our teachers, of me as education minister,

:46:13.:46:15.

Moving on them to that other element, more pupils

:46:16.:46:29.

They've been studying for a year, a two-year course, but for some

:46:30.:46:34.

reason schools want to put them in early.

:46:35.:46:37.

You could say, you're not allowed to have resits.

:46:38.:46:40.

Like they did in England four years ago.

:46:41.:46:42.

I am concerned to see the large numbers of early entry we have

:46:43.:46:51.

I've always said that if it's in the interests of an individual

:46:52.:46:55.

student to sit that exam early, then that should be

:46:56.:46:57.

What I'm concerned about is that we are seeing entire cohorts

:46:58.:47:02.

of students being entered into exams for qualifications that are designed

:47:03.:47:05.

That is putting pressure on students.

:47:06.:47:09.

Putting pressure on teachers, potentially compromising what that

:47:10.:47:11.

Qualifications Wales are doing a report into early entry,

:47:12.:47:18.

I expect to receive that in the autumn.

:47:19.:47:20.

I will look very carefully at the evidence before I make

:47:21.:47:23.

I could decide to stop early entry altogether.

:47:24.:47:31.

Better then that might have the side-effect

:47:32.:47:33.

of disadvantage in some children, but we could also change the way

:47:34.:47:36.

we hold schools accountable for their performance.

:47:37.:47:40.

We could say to schools it is the grades the child gets

:47:41.:47:43.

the first time they sit the exam that will count towards your

:47:44.:47:46.

There is a range of options I am prepared to look at once

:47:47.:47:50.

I receive the expert evidence from qualifications Wales.

:47:51.:47:53.

And that last option you mentioned is what they did in England,

:47:54.:47:56.

Your predecessor in the education Minister's office, Huw Lewis,

:47:57.:48:02.

said we are going to try and stop schools from gaming the system,

:48:03.:48:05.

You are talking about gaming the system in May this year.

:48:06.:48:10.

The problem is still there, it's just not being addressed, is it?

:48:11.:48:13.

But I need to do that on the basis of evidence.

:48:14.:48:17.

From experts who are there to independently advise the Welsh

:48:18.:48:21.

government and myself on our systems.

:48:22.:48:23.

I'm clear that where an entire cohorts of children are being

:48:24.:48:26.

entered, then that's not the policy of looking at the interests

:48:27.:48:31.

of individual children, and if necessary, on the advice,

:48:32.:48:35.

there is a range of options I am prepared to take this autumn.

:48:36.:48:38.

Do you think it is that schools are just trying to game the system

:48:39.:48:41.

Put a child in early, get a C grade, that counts towards their school

:48:42.:48:46.

performance targets, therefore, they move on.

:48:47.:48:49.

I am concerned that may be happening in some schools.

:48:50.:48:53.

Some schools may be entering children because they want to give

:48:54.:48:56.

them a test, they want to show them what an exam looks like.

:48:57.:48:59.

Those children will go on to sit the exam again.

:49:00.:49:03.

What I'm concerned about is that children who, perhaps,

:49:04.:49:06.

had the potential to get an A*, A or B at the end of a two-year

:49:07.:49:10.

course end up having to settle for a C because they do it early

:49:11.:49:13.

I want children to fulfil their potential in school.

:49:14.:49:18.

I want early entry to be for those children who will benefit from it.

:49:19.:49:21.

When I see such large numbers as being reported that

:49:22.:49:25.

I've asked for independent advice, that will come to me in the autumn.

:49:26.:49:32.

It's been a busy year in terms of education.

:49:33.:49:35.

It's also been a very busy year in terms of politics, generally,

:49:36.:49:38.

since you've been in post we've had, not that it's your fault,

:49:39.:49:41.

but we've had a referendum on leaving the European Union,

:49:42.:49:43.

Both of which, I guess, wouldn't have gone the way that

:49:44.:49:48.

you would have liked to have gone, how does it feel, for example,

:49:49.:49:51.

to be the last Liberal Democrat in national office in Wales,

:49:52.:49:54.

the most senior Lib Dem, I guess, in government

:49:55.:49:57.

Obviously, the referendum result is extremely disappointing.

:49:58.:50:04.

We are seeing the consequences of that decision already

:50:05.:50:09.

in the education system in Wales, particularly in higher education.

:50:10.:50:12.

The effect it's having on universities.

:50:13.:50:14.

I, and the Welsh government, and working very hard to ensure that

:50:15.:50:17.

all the promises that were made by those who campaigned for a leave

:50:18.:50:20.

People in Wales didn't vote to leave the European Union to be worse off.

:50:21.:50:26.

People in Wales didn't vote to leave the European Union

:50:27.:50:29.

As for being the last Lib Dem standing, again,

:50:30.:50:38.

We've seen internationally Liberal parties, over the years, potentially

:50:39.:50:42.

They've gone on to rebuild themselves and look at fresh

:50:43.:50:48.

approaches and new ways of doing things.

:50:49.:50:51.

I'm confident that the Welsh Liberal Democrats will go on to do that.

:50:52.:50:54.

But what I am enjoying is having the opportunity of being able

:50:55.:50:58.

to bring Liberal Democrat ideas and Liberal Democrat

:50:59.:51:01.

values into government and into our education

:51:02.:51:05.

Well, here with me now to talk about all this are Gareth Evans

:51:06.:51:12.

who's Director of Education Policy at University of Wales Trinity Saint

:51:13.:51:14.

David and the senior Conservative AM and Chair

:51:15.:51:16.

of the Public Accounts Committee, Nick Ramsay.

:51:17.:51:23.

Thank you for coming in this morning. In a previous life you were

:51:24.:51:30.

an education journalist. This has been around for a long time. This

:51:31.:51:36.

element of schools putting in their pupils a year early. It's been

:51:37.:51:41.

having an effect for a long time. But maybe not as dramatic an impact

:51:42.:51:46.

it seems to be having now. That's right. Pupils in Wales have

:51:47.:51:49.

been entered in year ten rather than your 11 for some time now. Numbers

:51:50.:51:55.

have grown significantly. We've got to ask why that has happened. It

:51:56.:51:59.

could be perfectly legitimate reasons, pupils who are excelling in

:52:00.:52:06.

certain subjects, or who want to ban gay qualification to look at

:52:07.:52:12.

studying something else in the second year of GCSE -- banked a

:52:13.:52:17.

qualification. The Cabinet Secretary has just mentioned they are judged

:52:18.:52:22.

so heavily on GCSE grades, what is known as the level two plus

:52:23.:52:30.

criteria, but five good a start to G grades, and English or Welsh, and

:52:31.:52:35.

maths. The difficulty you have is that schools are under such pressure

:52:36.:52:40.

to hit those targets they are potentially entering pupils slightly

:52:41.:52:43.

earlier than they should be, clearly not all pupils will be doing that.

:52:44.:52:47.

Some will be well within their rights to sit early. Others may be

:52:48.:52:52.

pushing through so schools can hit targets. We need to shift that

:52:53.:52:55.

accountability mechanism to reflect the needs of pupils.

:52:56.:52:59.

That point about schools and Kirsty Williams made it in the interview,

:53:00.:53:06.

maybe pupils who could get a A*, a or B are getting a C grade after one

:53:07.:53:11.

year and not being put back in to reset. Something has gone wrong way

:53:12.:53:19.

that is happening, is it? It's not acceptable if pupils are

:53:20.:53:25.

not being stretched to the maximum. If they are capable of an a grade

:53:26.:53:29.

and end up with a C grade, that's not right. Early engineers a

:53:30.:53:33.

valuable mechanism for some pupils. You would expect an element of that.

:53:34.:53:38.

Schools should be able to employ an early entry but the numbers being

:53:39.:53:42.

seen at the moment, that's not right. It's not right we are letting

:53:43.:53:46.

so many pupils down. The numbers are stark.

:53:47.:53:51.

English-language GCSE, two thirds of all year ten pupils have been

:53:52.:53:56.

entered early. In England, four years ago, I think, Michael Gove

:53:57.:54:01.

said, only your first set of results count towards your performance, your

:54:02.:54:07.

accountability targets. Firstly, should be Welsh government have

:54:08.:54:11.

followed suit back then, should they do it now?

:54:12.:54:15.

Yes, and yes. In a lot of what Kirsty Williams said, actually, I

:54:16.:54:19.

would tend to agree with. We are talking for years down the line from

:54:20.:54:23.

when England looked at this. Words are fine but let's get on with the

:54:24.:54:32.

job. I guess after that switch was flicked in England, there was a

:54:33.:54:36.

massive drop off in the number of schools entering pupils early. Has

:54:37.:54:40.

that had been required effect? Is that the way we should go in Wales?

:54:41.:54:45.

You've got to be careful if you wish to switch to wrap mechanism. You

:54:46.:54:50.

then set the bar so high it is a high state exam. If you only get one

:54:51.:54:56.

chance that an A* you might struggle to get better grades in the future.

:54:57.:55:01.

I think you have to be very careful if you go down the England route

:55:02.:55:06.

that you don't penalised schools and put more pressure on. We have to

:55:07.:55:11.

find a balance. What the Welsh government has moved to do with the

:55:12.:55:14.

right thing, look at accountability more generally and try to support

:55:15.:55:17.

schools to improve rather than bash them over the head.

:55:18.:55:22.

There is such high stakes, these exams, so much rides on this for

:55:23.:55:27.

pupils. Should parents be worried? Watcher parents do? I think it is

:55:28.:55:37.

heartening that the new regulatory body, qualifications Wales, has said

:55:38.:55:40.

they are confident that exams this summer will be compatible with those

:55:41.:55:47.

before. So a student who will get a A* this year will have done so last

:55:48.:55:52.

year and in previous years. That is comforting. But what we've got to do

:55:53.:55:58.

is look at how we can, perhaps, change the system. The way in which

:55:59.:56:03.

we monitor and regulate schools. We need to give pupils the best chance

:56:04.:56:07.

with no perverse incentives for schools to game the system. We

:56:08.:56:13.

really supported them to achieve the best they possibly can for pupils to

:56:14.:56:18.

get the grades they deserve. As was mentioned there, these are

:56:19.:56:23.

brand-new qualifications, GCSEs in English and Welsh being sat in

:56:24.:56:27.

Wales. They are unique to Wales. We've been told all along they are

:56:28.:56:32.

more rigorous more difficult. That may count for some of the drop-off

:56:33.:56:36.

in the expected results. Now, Kirsty Williams was happy that more

:56:37.:56:42.

rigorous exams are good, but is there a danger that they could be

:56:43.:56:47.

collateral damage. Some pupils not getting the result they might have

:56:48.:56:51.

got? We've been concerned from the start about the inherent dangers of

:56:52.:56:56.

a new system like this. I'm not saying that there is the potential

:56:57.:57:00.

they are to have a good system long term, but there are big question

:57:01.:57:03.

marks at the moment about not just early entry, but the system... You

:57:04.:57:11.

would welcome a more rigorous system in Wales? You've already seen acting

:57:12.:57:17.

England. They had bad drop-off because the system was more rigorous

:57:18.:57:23.

there. There definitely needs to be a more rigorous system. Employers

:57:24.:57:26.

within Wales and across the border in England need to know that the

:57:27.:57:31.

system is as rigorous and, at the same time, our pupils, if they are

:57:32.:57:36.

capable of getting a grades, then they need to be in a position where

:57:37.:57:39.

they are able to get them and the gaming of the system which we looked

:57:40.:57:44.

at in the Public Accounts Committee, and it is going on, that is really

:57:45.:57:50.

failing so many of our pupils who could be doing better. It certainly

:57:51.:57:55.

needs to be looked at pretty soon. This is a life chance for our young

:57:56.:57:58.

people we are talking about. There is an element here, perhaps,

:57:59.:58:04.

this is the first time we have had Wales only qualifications. This is

:58:05.:58:08.

the first time England have results by numbers, so you're A* will be a

:58:09.:58:17.

one, down to nine or ten. How important is it that the Welsh

:58:18.:58:20.

government get that message out to parents, I'll be doing it? I've been

:58:21.:58:22.

surprised that the amount of people that don't know what's going on in

:58:23.:58:29.

terms of qualifications. Do you mean parents or schools? All sorts.

:58:30.:58:33.

Teachers, schools, parents. If our teachers aren't abreast of the

:58:34.:58:37.

changes what chance do we have of getting pupils and teachers well

:58:38.:58:41.

informed. We've got to come as a sector, we've got to pull together

:58:42.:58:46.

some sort of communication strategy that allows us to get messages out

:58:47.:58:52.

there. We need to improve and show divergences qualifications,

:58:53.:58:54.

curriculum reform, initial teacher training even. There are so many

:58:55.:58:59.

differences now between the Welsh education system and the English

:59:00.:59:03.

education system, I think we've got to do a far better job as a system

:59:04.:59:07.

of coordinating and communicating. Do you think that is happening to

:59:08.:59:12.

the extent it should be? To reassure parents and schools, but actually

:59:13.:59:16.

the gold standard is still here in Wales? No, it's not happening. That

:59:17.:59:20.

is why we are having this discussion now. That's why the Public Accounts

:59:21.:59:25.

Committee was concerned. These are not simple issues to deal with. Many

:59:26.:59:30.

are media man long-term. But these are going to affect pupils this

:59:31.:59:35.

year, next year and the year after. We need to prove that the system is

:59:36.:59:39.

rigorous, as has been said. This isn't a question of the Welsh

:59:40.:59:42.

government is telling schools, telling NEA is what to do. The Welsh

:59:43.:59:47.

government needs a much better dialogue with schools, with the

:59:48.:59:49.

educational institutions in Wales and come to a conclusion that will

:59:50.:59:54.

ultimately give our pupils the best life chances. Thank you very much

:59:55.:59:56.

for coming in this morning. Join us next week for our last

:59:57.:59:58.

programme of the series. Meantime we're on Twitter,

:59:59.:00:02.

we're @walespolitics Diolch am wylio, thanks for

:00:03.:00:03.

watching, time to go back to Andrew. Now just under a year ago,

:00:04.:00:11.

Theresa May was making her way back from Buckingham Palace having been

:00:12.:00:24.

asked by the Queen To say it's been a tumultuous twelve

:00:25.:00:26.

months would be an understatement - here's a reminder of

:00:27.:00:30.

the highs and lows. I have just been to Buckingham

:00:31.:00:37.

Palace, where Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form

:00:38.:00:40.

a new Government and I accepted. If you're just managing,

:00:41.:00:49.

I want to address you directly. I know you're working

:00:50.:00:51.

around-the-clock, I know you're doing your best,

:00:52.:00:53.

and I know that sometimes When future generations

:00:54.:00:55.

look back at this time, they will judge us not only

:00:56.:01:03.

by the decision that we made, but by I have just chaired a meeting

:01:04.:01:06.

of the Cabinet, where we agreed that the Government should call

:01:07.:01:21.

a general election to The Conservative Party

:01:22.:01:25.

has won the most seats and probably the most votes,

:01:26.:01:43.

then it will be incumbent on us to ensure we have that period

:01:44.:01:49.

of stability and that is exactly So 12 months in the life of Theresa

:01:50.:02:07.

May, and the rest of us too. I am exhausted. I don't know what she

:02:08.:02:12.

feels like! How weak or strong is her position and this constant

:02:13.:02:16.

reporting, more on the Sunday paper today about groups of Tory MPs

:02:17.:02:20.

manoeuvring to bring her down in the autumn, before the autumn after the

:02:21.:02:24.

autumn, name a month between now and the end of the year. Is that, that

:02:25.:02:28.

has to be corrosive as well. Absolutely. Every week there will be

:02:29.:02:32.

another story. The reality is the stronger Jeremy Corbyn and the

:02:33.:02:36.

Labour Party look the stronger her position is because it is what are

:02:37.:02:40.

the alternative, Theresa May or... It is depending on the polls where

:02:41.:02:44.

it is Theresa May herself who is helping to cause that boost for

:02:45.:02:48.

Jeremy Corbyn, if she is the toxic part of the Tory party brand, and if

:02:49.:02:54.

they get rid of her the Tories would spring back up and the Labour Party

:02:55.:02:58.

would go down or is it best for her to soak it, literally draw out the

:02:59.:03:03.

toxins and then, I don't know, two money, six months a year, she stands

:03:04.:03:08.

down and next leader takes the over, next generation or David Davis and

:03:09.:03:13.

they start again, start afresh, and she takes all the badness, the

:03:14.:03:18.

toxins with her this is thing, there must be a hell of a lot of detailed

:03:19.:03:22.

polls right now find that out. I don't know the answer. Can she

:03:23.:03:28.

relaunch herself? No, she will make a big speech on Tuesday, ex tracts

:03:29.:03:32.

are being briefed into tomorrow's papers, I have seen them. . What is

:03:33.:03:41.

the subject matter? Me. Not me, her. There has been enough movement from

:03:42.:03:46.

BBC... It is going to be her, it will be the relaunch. I have a

:03:47.:03:50.

purpose, still here and allow me to stay, but the problem is, Julia is

:03:51.:03:54.

right, there is a feeling among Tory MPs it would be ideal for her to

:03:55.:03:59.

last at least two years, suck in the bad bit, and to have a referendum or

:04:00.:04:04.

not, and the miscalculations and bring in a new person, untarnished.

:04:05.:04:09.

The problem over that is events dear boy as someone once said. Brexit may

:04:10.:04:14.

go well, it may not. Talks may produce something or she may get

:04:15.:04:19.

stuck down a hole. She is the sticking plaster over the two side

:04:20.:04:22.

of the Tory party. She is there, because they want her to be there

:04:23.:04:26.

and that Palacester is stilled holding, if that seismic divide goes

:04:27.:04:31.

any further, the plaster breaks she will go down the hole with it. David

:04:32.:04:38.

Davis said she doesn't want a leadership election, the papers are

:04:39.:04:42.

full of briefings from what are claimed to be from his people saying

:04:43.:04:48.

she faces abject misery, that it is time she will have to go sooner

:04:49.:04:52.

rather than later, they clearly haven't got the memo from DD as he

:04:53.:04:58.

is called. Publicly they have, to declare loyalty until the moment

:04:59.:05:02.

when they feel the time has come to be disloyal. The problem she has got

:05:03.:05:10.

is that context determines 95% of how a leader is perceived. She can

:05:11.:05:15.

make a brilliant speech this week about how she plans to be bold but

:05:16.:05:22.

the context is that lost majority in the election, a hung parliament with

:05:23.:05:29.

Brexit looming. It makes it hard to be bold, hung Parliaments are not

:05:30.:05:33.

bold. You will have to manoeuvre all the time and it be exhausting and

:05:34.:05:39.

transparent in the scheming, a like with the arrangement with the DUP,

:05:40.:05:42.

some of the vote it is a have happened and it will be utterly

:05:43.:05:46.

draining, now Julia is is right. The key question for the Tories will be

:05:47.:05:50.

if they get someone else in, does that transform their prospects?

:05:51.:05:54.

While that is not clear, I agree she will probably cling on, but there

:05:55.:06:01.

will be no glorious summer for her again, the pre-election context was

:06:02.:06:05.

fantastic for her, it is really dark now, and tough. The key thing is

:06:06.:06:10.

what you said, who would have thunk it. You have said the Tories are

:06:11.:06:15.

frightened to call to provoke us another election because they fear,

:06:16.:06:21.

they think Jeremy Corbyn will win. Who would have thought we would get

:06:22.:06:26.

into that position? In the same argument who would have thought

:06:27.:06:31.

Theresa May been so popular. Who would have thought Jeremy Corbyn

:06:32.:06:34.

would get where he is now? That shows there is still hope for not

:06:35.:06:38.

maybe, maybe not Theresa May, I think that she has holed below the

:06:39.:06:43.

water line, what goes up can also come down, but in Theresa May's

:06:44.:06:46.

defence, and I don't think she will last very long, and I think she has

:06:47.:06:51.

been exposed, during the election campaign for just not having enough

:06:52.:06:55.

of depth, of the fight, but to be fair she must have a backbone of

:06:56.:07:00.

steel, a lesser man or holed below the water line, what goes up can

:07:01.:07:03.

also come down, but in Theresa May's defence, and I don't think she will

:07:04.:07:06.

last very long, and I think she has been exposed, during the election

:07:07.:07:08.

campaign for just not having enough of depth, of the fight, but to be

:07:09.:07:11.

fair she must have a backbone of steel, a lesser man or woman holed

:07:12.:07:14.

below the water line, what goes up can also come down, but in Theresa

:07:15.:07:17.

May's defence, and I don't think she will last very long, and I think she

:07:18.:07:19.

has been exposed, during the election campaign for just not

:07:20.:07:21.

having enough of depth, of the fight, but to be fair she must have

:07:22.:07:25.

a backbone of steel, a lesser man or woman who have gone, "I'm off now."

:07:26.:07:28.

To take the flak she is get, she is steely as they come. It is almost a

:07:29.:07:31.

form of penance she is doing, having brought her party to this less than

:07:32.:07:33.

glorious position, she's having to try and kind of restore things a

:07:34.:07:36.

bit, knowing in her heart of hearts and perhaps not as deep at that,

:07:37.:07:39.

that she will not be the beneficiary. Absolutely not. That is

:07:40.:07:41.

what she said to the 1922 Committee that Monday after the general

:07:42.:07:44.

election, I got us into this mess, I am going to get us out of it. Talks

:07:45.:07:47.

to MPs this week, it is interesting, there is pretty hard feeling

:07:48.:07:49.

settling that the new person should come from the 2010 intake, skip a

:07:50.:07:53.

generation. The Boris, the Teresa, the Hammonds. Bye Amber Rudd? She

:07:54.:08:01.

has a tiny minority -- majority. There was one minister in your foyer

:08:02.:08:07.

an hour ago. Did we have a foyer? I think about 30 of them, all of them

:08:08.:08:11.

believe it or not fancy their chance, and for any of those to

:08:12.:08:15.

expose themselves and to lay out their agenda they will need

:08:16.:08:18.

two-years to make these sort of Sport Reliefs Let us turn to Labour.

:08:19.:08:24.

Well, earlier we talked to Caroline Flint about the threat

:08:25.:08:26.

Here's what Shadow Minister and Corbyn ally, Chris Williamson,

:08:27.:08:31.

MPs need to reflect the political programme that is overwhelmingly

:08:32.:08:33.

supported by Labour members and Labour supporters,

:08:34.:08:35.

and if people aren't prepared to do that,

:08:36.:08:37.

then it will be up to members in their local constituencies

:08:38.:08:40.

How big a change is Labour going to undergo? To what extent will Labour

:08:41.:08:57.

now be recast in the mould of Mr Corbyn and his wing of the party?

:08:58.:09:03.

Well in policy terms it already has been largely recast into the Corbyn

:09:04.:09:07.

McDonnell view, although with lots of examples of them being pretty

:09:08.:09:11.

expedient, Trident being an example. Where they went into the election

:09:12.:09:17.

backing retention, even though personally they are totally

:09:18.:09:20.

committed to nuclear disarmament. He might be able to move to that

:09:21.:09:26.

position? They might but that example of expend yen sip leads me

:09:27.:09:30.

to this. . I suspect Corbyn and McDonnell will be thinking we are

:09:31.:09:35.

close to power do we really want 18 months of Civil War, which is what

:09:36.:09:43.

deelection battles would become, and terrible publicity, and an imflowing

:09:44.:09:48.

a party on the verge possibly of an election win. -- implosion. My guess

:09:49.:09:53.

is they won't and they will go out of their way to try and stop it.

:09:54.:09:59.

John McDonnell said many times divide a party lose elections, I

:10:00.:10:01.

don't think they will want this. There are power battles in party, we

:10:02.:10:05.

have been talking about it in the Tory party, and there will be

:10:06.:10:09.

moments of heightened tension between the Labour MPs and their

:10:10.:10:12.

memberships but I don't think that this is going to happen. If Steve is

:10:13.:10:19.

right we should be looking for signs of them looking for signs of them

:10:20.:10:25.

hosing things down. Although, I don't think they need to do this.

:10:26.:10:29.

The moderate wing of the party, they are not standing up to Jeremy Corbyn

:10:30.:10:34.

any more, they are trying to get a few Select Committee Chairmanships

:10:35.:10:38.

and survive and hope something happens. The extraordinary thing is,

:10:39.:10:43.

given that no-one expected Jeremy Corbyn, no-one tried to deselect him

:10:44.:10:50.

and no-one accused him of disloyalty. We are in Soviet style

:10:51.:10:56.

show trial, you know, repent territory. We haven't had a show

:10:57.:11:01.

trial yet. Matter of time. Apart from Brexit. The Labour Party are

:11:02.:11:06.

united until it comes to votes on the House of Commons on what to do

:11:07.:11:11.

about Europe. So, Brexit goes well, that 49 will wither away a bit and

:11:12.:11:16.

start getting... If Brexit goes badly. Vince Cable saying we need a

:11:17.:11:25.

mud referendum, huge temptation then among Labour MPs to recalibrate and

:11:26.:11:30.

a oar gue for staying in and that would split the partyty down the

:11:31.:11:36.

middle. You heard Owen Paterson say 85% of people voted for parties that

:11:37.:11:40.

wanted Brexit, meaning Labour and Conservative. It is true that Jeremy

:11:41.:11:46.

Corbyn and Mr McDonnell are more Eurosceptic than people realise.

:11:47.:11:49.

They want another election quickly, because they don't know how, this

:11:50.:11:55.

maybe as good as it gets. None of us know, so get an election quick

:11:56.:11:58.

because we think we might win it. That means that they could well play

:11:59.:12:04.

game, why would they just bolster the store Tories if a big defeat on

:12:05.:12:10.

Brexit could provoke an election. I am guessing they will play games, if

:12:11.:12:15.

there is chance of undermining the Government perhaps fatally to get

:12:16.:12:19.

this early election which would be massively in their interest, theyry

:12:20.:12:22.

ahead in the poll, I think that will do it. They have displayed

:12:23.:12:28.

expediency on Europe in the past, possibly arguing for it why having

:12:29.:12:33.

doubts about it in the referendum, for Remain, sorely. So yes, I think

:12:34.:12:37.

there will be, as I said earlier, in this Parliament there will be going

:12:38.:12:41.

to be moments where it looks as if the Government could be defeat and I

:12:42.:12:44.

think they will move towards defeating the Government. Any

:12:45.:12:51.

remainor should be more worried about the economics of a Corbyn left

:12:52.:12:56.

On that point we better leave it there.

:12:57.:12:58.

I'll be back here on BBC One at the same time next week

:12:59.:13:04.

And Jo Co's back tomorrow with the Daily Politics on BBC Two

:13:05.:13:08.

at the earlier time of 11am - that's because of Wimbledon.

:13:09.:13:11.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:12.:14:00.

This is what it takes to get her to come home, you know?

:14:01.:14:03.

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew asks Owen Paterson whether remainers are taking advantage of Theresa May's weakness to scupper Brexit, asks Caroline Flint if Labour MPs should be worried about Jeremy Corbyn strengthening his grip on the Labour Party and discusses the Grenfell Tower fire disaster with newly-elected Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad. The political panel consists of Julia Hartley-Brewer, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.