19/11/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


19/11/2017

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LineFromTo

Morning everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is your guide

to all the big stories that

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are shaping politics this weekend,

and a few of the smaller ones too.

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Philip Hammond is getting ready

to deliver his latest Budget

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on Wednesday and he's not short

of advice - to spend more,

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show restraint, even

to stop being an Eyore -

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but can he change the direction

of the country and his government?

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Conservative Party darling

Jacob Rees-Mogg has

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some advice of his own.

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He thinks the Chancellor

is being far too gloomy about Brexit

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- he joins me live to explain why.

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The former Leave campaign leader,

Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

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with pro-EU campaigner

Alastair Campbell, after taking

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a trip to her native Germany

to speak to businesses

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about Brexit.

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The programme, as the government is

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rocked

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The programme, as the government is

rocked by allegations of bullying,

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will be asking one of his Labour AM

is what should happen next. And

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Michael Sheen on what he thinks

about how realtors run and his

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possible political ambitions beyond

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All that coming up in the programme.

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And with me for for all of it,

three journalists who've promised

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not to show off like Michael Gove

by using any long economicky words -

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although I'm not sure they really

know that many anyway -

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it's Tom Newton Dunn,

Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

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Let's take a look at the big

political stories making the news

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this Sunday morning,

and as you might expect there's

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plenty of speculation

about what might or not might be

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in Philip Hammond's Budget.

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The Chancellor is promising a big

investment in new technology,

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including driverless cars -

which could be on the road by 2021.

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He's been interviewed

in the Sunday Times,

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where he talks about plans to reach

the target of building

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300,000 homes every year,

or the equivalent of a city

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the size of Leeds.

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That paper speculates that he's

attempting to turn from "fiscal

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Phil" into "hopeful Hammond"

as he tries to set out

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a vision for the country,

not just a list of numbers.

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The Sunday Telegraph thinks that

Mr Hammond is planning to offer

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a pay rise to nurses as part

of a bid to take on Labour.

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But that hasn't impressed

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

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He's spoken to a number of papers

and is calling for an emergency

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budget to invest in public services

and help struggling households.

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So that's a taste of what you might

hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

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and Mr McDonnell have both been

appearing this morning

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on the Andrew Marr Show.

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I think Britain has a very

bright future ahead of it,

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and we have to embrace

the opportunities that

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a post-Brexit world will offer.

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They will be opportunities that

are based on huge change,

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huge technological evolution.

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It's not always going to be easy,

but the British people have shown

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time and time again that we're up

for these challenges.

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For many people out there,

this is a depression.

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We've had people whose wages

have been cut by 10%.

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Nurses, for example.

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We've had people who are now...

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1.25 million food parcels handed out

in the sixth richest

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country in the world.

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That's what I call a recession

for large numbers of people.

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We will be talking about Labour and

their economic policies in a moment,

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but let's start with what we might

expect from the budget. We will talk

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to our panel of political observers.

Philip Hammond is under pressure to

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set out a bold vision and reset the

government's programme. Can we

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expect that?

No, we can't. We have

heard enough from the Chancellor

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across various broadcast and his

article in the Sunday Times. I think

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we will not be getting a bold

budget. His precise words short... A

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short time ago were a balanced

budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

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They desperately want something to

go out and shout about, something to

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capture people's imagination, and do

big and bold things, like how on

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earth are they going to build those

new 300,000 houses a year? There are

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good reasons why he has chosen what

appears to be a pretty staid,

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Conservative budget, and that is

that they are probably unable to get

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anything bold through Parliament.

His capital is so low among Tory

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MPs. If you have a minority

government, it is tricky.

We have

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seen ministers on programmes like

this in the last few weeks putting

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in the bids for what they would like

spending on, whether it be payment

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for nurses or parliament. Would he

struggled to get something radical

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through the Commons?

Big ideas cost

money. That's the problem. Bold

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ideas are controversial. In some

ways, Tory MPs are asking their

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Chancellor to do the impossible.

Government is already doing

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something big and bold, which is

Brexit. That has implications for

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how much money is available, how

many risks you want to take with

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everything else. What is crucial is

that he demonstrates a reputation

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for competence. The reputation that

the Conservative government has for

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economic competence, that many

people prefer them to Labour on the

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issue of economic competence. The

worst thing he could do is come up

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with a big, bold idea that

unravelled quickly. What they

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absolutely don't want is to come up

with an exciting idea that falls

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apart three days after the budget.

He is under pressure from

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Brexiteers, who are suspicious of

him. Does he have to offer them

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something?

Part of his problem is he

has to offer so many different

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people different things. This is

Philip Hammond trying to be and

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dynamic.

It is hard to tell

sometimes.

At least in theoretical

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terms. His longer-term difficulty is

that, if you look at the economic

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cycle, we are getting to a point

where we are probably overdue, if

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you put Brexit to one side, overdue

some kind of correction or downturn,

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if you look what has happened to

asset prices globally. What will be

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worrying for the Treasury is, just

as everyone is saying we should turn

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on the taps and build this or that,

we might be at the top of a cycle,

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and the Treasury will want to lose

something in the armoury in terms of

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probably growing the deficit if

there are economic difficulties in

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the next two years, and then there

is Brexit as well.

It sounds

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impossible.

I think so. Talking to

his friends and colleagues over the

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last few days, he had to make a

call, which was precisely how much

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can I get away with, with my

political capital being as low as it

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is, with the mixed problems he had

at the last budget, and a lot of the

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party disliking his approach to

Brexit. He is damned if he is,

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damned if he doesn't. Universal

Credit, we are expecting a reduction

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in the time it takes to wait,

business rates, affected by high

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inflation... I think we will see a

problem fixing budget which will

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probably do quite a lot of important

spadework in many areas.

We will

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pick up on some of this later in the

programme.

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Let's speak now to the Conservative

MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

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he helpfully launched an alternative

"budget for Brexit" and advised

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the Chancellor to be less gloomy

about the consequences

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of leaving the EU.

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Thank you for joining us. Your

alternative budget is pretty

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radical. Almost half corporation

tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

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London market. It seems you are

advocating the opposite from what we

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will hear from your Chancellor on

Wednesday.

There are two parts to

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the proposals I suggested. One is

that we should show that after we

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have left the European Union, the UK

is open to the rest of the world. It

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is about opening up to the rest of

the world. Secondly, looking at the

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modelling that has been done by the

Treasury and some other forecasters,

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which has been so comprehensively

wrong. The forecasts made about what

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would happen after Brexit have

turned out to be hopelessly false.

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The team at Cardiff University have

done some modelling based on the

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classical economic principles and

what happens if you move to free

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trade that would be very positive

for the economy.

You are predicting

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a Brexit dividend of £135 billion,

which sounds fantastic. Why are you

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right, and everybody else, including

the Bank of England and the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies, why

are they all wrong?

It depends on

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the type of modelling. The modelling

that have been done by the Treasury

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have been based on gravity models,

which work on the basis of the

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nearness of the market and the size

of the economy you are trading with.

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These have been wrong in the past.

They predicted that if we joined the

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euro, trade would grow by 300%. That

was then revised down to 200%, but

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it is fantasyland. The model I am

working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

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who has a record of getting these

things right. He was right about the

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exchange rate mechanism, right about

the euro.

Being right in the past

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doesn't mean you are right about the

future. Why do you think the

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Treasury will not pick up the same

numbers, if this is so obvious to

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you?

I think the Treasury was

humiliated by the errors in its

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forecast prior to Brexit, and is

trying to defend its position. The

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short-term economic consequences of

a vote to leave was one of the most

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dishonest documents to come out of

the Treasury, purely a piece of

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political propaganda. They are

wounded by that and sticking to the

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same script, rather than looking at

other forecasts and other experts.

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You think the governor of the Bank

of England is an enemy of Brexit,

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and it sounds like you think the

Treasury is opposed to it. As the

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Chancellor fallen under their spell

as well, and been persuaded to be an

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enemy of Brexit?

I have admiration

the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

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his predecessor, was the architect

of Project Fear. He was too close to

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the Bank of England and lost his

independence. That is what needs to

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change. It is an opportunity in the

budget for Philip Hammond to show he

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is putting aside the Treasury's

mistakes in the past. It is very

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encouraging what he is saying this

morning, about a more positive

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approach to Brexit.

Lord Lawson has

accused Philip Hammond of being very

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close to sabotage on Brexit. He says

we need a can-do man at the Treasury

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and not a prophet of doom.

I think

that Philip Hammond is an

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exceptionally intelligent man, a

very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

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thing to have a Chancellor who is

serious minded and steady, rather

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than one who is a showman and uses

the Exchequer to interfere in

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absolutely everything.

I have a lot

of confidence in the Chancellor.

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When you launched your budget for

Brexit, you said the government has

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to deliver the £350 million for the

NHS that was delivered during the

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referendum, even though you didn't

think that promise should have been

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made. Is that something they now

need to deliver wrong?

It is. This

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only happens once we have left.

Politicians have to recognise that

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voters don't look at the small print

of electoral policies. If you put

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£350 million on the side of a bus

and say it may be available for the

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NHS, it is reasonable for people to

think that is a promise. Brexit was

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won by the Leave campaign, so it it

is important that they deliver on

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that promise. Politicians must keep

faith with voters and deliver on

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implied promises, as well as ones

that are set out in detail.

The

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Cabinet will move on to talk about

the Brexit bill this week, and we

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understand they may need to come up

with more money to satisfy EU

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demands. The more money spent on

that is less money available for

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things like spending on the NHS. Are

you worried about the size of the

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exit bill?

You have your finger on

the important point. The government

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will have to choose whether to give

lots of money to the European Union,

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or whether to spend money on UK

public services, and that will be

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part of the negotiation. On all

these issues, it comes down to

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choice is the government makes. I

would encourage the government to

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choose our own domestic public

services rather than expensive

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schemes in continent or Europe.

Why

are you advocating that the

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government should spend up to £2.5

billion on a no deal scenario?

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It is important that we are ready to

leave in the event of no deal. If we

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left with no deal we would on

current figures still be saving the

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remains of 18 billion so we would be

saving 15 and a half billion against

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paying for the financial framework.

To show we're ready on day one would

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be money well spent and most would

be needed any way. We need to have

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new customs arrangements in place

even if it is not for a no deal

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situation.

There are suggestions

that the Government might back down

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on the idea of putting the time and

date of leaving the EU on the face

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of the bill. Would you be Exxon

certained if that was -- concerned

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if that was remove prd the bill?

It

is in Article 50, unless Article 50

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is extended by the Council of Europe

we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

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makes accepts that should be the

same in -- sense that should be in

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same in domestic law. But that is a

secondary concern from my point of

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view. It is important that we leave

on that date.

Stay there if you

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would.

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We're joined in the studio

by the former minister

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Stephen Hammond.

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He's no relation to the Chancellor,

but he is a member

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of the Treasury Select Committee

and he's one of the Tory MPs named

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as "Brexit mutineers"

by the Daily Telegraph

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this week - lucky him.

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I'm assured you're no relation to

the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

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on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying.

How important is it to you as a

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rebel that the Government does put

the date on.

I agree with Jacob it

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is in the Article 50 process, the

key reason it is important is the

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negotiations look like they're going

to be tricky and longer than we

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expected and it may well be that we

are still negotiating up until March

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2019. We could have a short couple

of weeks period of extension. Why do

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harm to the economy by falling out

on a precise time? If those

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negotiations need to be extended.

They won't go on for more than a

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couple of weeks, because there will

be elections in Europe in June 2019

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and there is no chance of a new

commission or Parliament dealing

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with this. Giving it flexibility and

with this flexibility the government

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said it wants flexibility in

negotiations, why give all the

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advantage to the other side? Part of

that was evidenced yesterday by

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somebody suggesting they will ask

for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

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be suspended. That is as a result of

putting the date on the bill.

You

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did not agree with the Brexit

committee and think it is important

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that we set the date and time?

I

think it is perfectly reasonable to

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set the date and time and I think

these negotiations fill the time

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available. The United States and

Australia agreed a free trade deal

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between April 2003 and February

2004. These things don't need to be

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interm Knabl if both sides want to

agree. I think the British

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electorate would be very concerned

if nearly three years after the vote

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to leave, we still hadn't left. I

think most people expected that we

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would have left by now. The

negotiations realistically to get

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through the approval of the European

Parliament and so on need to be

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completed by at the end of next

year, going up to the last minute I

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don't think is real is tick.

To move

on to talk about a trade deal and

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getting that done, the EU need to

agree to move on and we need to

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settle the divorce, cabinet are

going to be talking about the amount

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that needs to be spent on that,

Stephen what manned, are you happy

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for the Government to offer more?

I

hope that the Government will stick

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to the Florence speech in terms of

ensuring that we fulfil our

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liabilities and obligations. I'm not

clear exactly whether that is 20

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billion or 40 billion and I'm not

sure the government is. If part of

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the divorce bill is then some

settlement for getting the trade

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deal, we will need to examine that

carefully.

Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

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that might spark another war in the

party if the cabinet suggest they're

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prepared to pay more?

I think we

need to go back to what you said,

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that the - the EU said they want us

to settle the money first. The

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Government doesn't need to follow

that. They need our money. If we

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don't pay any money for the final 21

months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:330:19:41

about 20 billion pounds gap in its

finances and it has no legal

0:19:410:19:46

requirement to borrow. So it

insolvents or the Germans and the

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others pay more. So our position on

money is very strong and we

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shouldn't fall into the trap of

thinking just because Mr Barnier

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said it it is as if he has received

tablets of stone like Moses, he has

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not.

There is a sense that the

Government feels a mo generous offer

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would set a good tone, the kind of

approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

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suggests would not make for smooth

relations.

It probably wouldn't. But

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we have to be clear what we are

paying for and what we are getting.

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No one is suggesting we should hand

over money without proper scrutiny.

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It may be appropriate to put money

to facilitate international trade to

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secure jobs. We have to be careful

about the analysis about what the

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scale and size of Brexit dividend is

and the size of payments will be.

0:20:420:20:48

You mustn't confuse gross and net

and there is disagreement about some

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of the numbers.

On that, Jacob Rees

Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:550:21:01

suggests in five years time we would

have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

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you think it is real is tick.

He is

using some analysis that has some

0:21:060:21:13

flaws. It is predicting a price drop

in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

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drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is

predicting huge productivity gains,

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the likes of which we have not seen

in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:270:21:32

view on modellers there is evidence

that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:320:21:37

the detail of the analysis, some of

the data is 14 years out of date.

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Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being

hopelessly optimistic?

I don't think

0:21:440:21:49

that right. I think the fall in

prices comes because you make the

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economy more competitive and you

take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:540:21:58

price of food by 20%. That is a big

reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:21:580:22:05

biggest tariffs hit food, clothing

and foot wear that, harm the poorest

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in society the most. The gains from

productivity come from is in

0:22:090:22:16

additional tariffs. Leading to other

saving and further investment I

0:22:160:22:24

think the modelling done by the

professor is as good as modelling

0:22:240:22:27

can be. That doesn't mean it is

infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:270:22:34

model is well known.

Michael Gove

was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:340:22:41

job of Chancellor by using long

words. Do you know any good long

0:22:410:22:47

economic words?

I don't think that

we want to get into this type of

0:22:470:22:51

business actually. I think all

Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:510:22:55

much agree on this, want to show as

united a front as we can manage.

0:22:550:23:01

There are differences on some

aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:010:23:05

individuals we want to stand

together and support the best

0:23:050:23:07

interests of the government.

Thank

you.

0:23:070:23:13

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:130:23:15

to win the support of business

leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:150:23:18

free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:180:23:20

He warned them against putting

'politics above prosperity'

0:23:200:23:23

and reportedly got a bit

of a frosty reception.

0:23:230:23:27

Well, the former Labour MP

Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:270:23:30

of the Vote Leave referendum

campaign.

0:23:300:23:32

We travelled with Gisela to Germany

to meet the business leaders

0:23:320:23:34

she says will help secure a good

trade deal for the UK.

0:23:340:23:37

Here's her film.

0:23:370:23:41

I was born and brought up

in this part of Germany,

0:23:470:23:50

and although I've lived in the UK

for the past 40 years,

0:23:500:23:53

and represented the constituency

of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:530:23:58

years, my family still live here,

and I've kept many links.

0:23:580:24:02

I was chair of Vote Leave,

and together with only a handful

0:24:050:24:08

of other Labour MPs,

we campaigned to leave

0:24:080:24:11

the European Union because we

thought the country would be

0:24:110:24:13

better off outside.

0:24:130:24:15

It's hard to remember now, but back

in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:150:24:18

the European Economic Community,

people thought that by joining

0:24:180:24:22

the club we would see the kind

of economic miracle Germany

0:24:220:24:27

experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:270:24:29

The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder"

would come to Britain.

0:24:290:24:31

But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:310:24:36

But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:360:24:36

Within a few short years

of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:380:24:41

Germany had emerged as

the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:410:24:44

Germany's extraordinary

success is down to

0:24:440:24:46

the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:460:24:50

German Mittelstand is family

dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:500:24:55

long-term thinking, reliability,

are very important values.

0:24:550:25:01

Changing moods on a political

landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:010:25:04

are toxic for our way of doing

business, and we want

0:25:040:25:06

that to go away.

0:25:060:25:12

that to go away.

0:25:120:25:14

German business is not given

to making big political statements

0:25:140:25:18

out of step with government policy,

but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:180:25:21

positions, and it is clear

that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:210:25:24

with the United Kingdom.

0:25:240:25:27

BMW employs almost 90,000

people here in Germany,

0:25:270:25:30

and exports just under

1 million cars annually.

0:25:300:25:34

The UK is a vital market.

0:25:340:25:39

What we are really seeking right now

is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:390:25:43

because in our cycle of investment,

cycle of development,

0:25:430:25:48

it's about a seven-year or so period

that we look at,

0:25:480:25:52

but we are now, of course, starting

to think about what comes next,

0:25:520:25:56

and what we need to see now

is what is going to be

0:25:560:25:59

the trading relationship,

how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:590:26:02

what is going to be

the requirements for people

0:26:020:26:04

moving across the continent?

0:26:040:26:07

Because all of these things

are important to us today.

0:26:070:26:09

And, by the way, they will be just

as important tomorrow.

0:26:090:26:13

Berlin is well aware that

if the European Commission

0:26:130:26:15

is allowed to put up trade barriers

against Britain, it will be

0:26:150:26:19

German business, German consumers

and German employees

0:26:190:26:21

who will suffer.

0:26:210:26:25

TRANSLATION:

I think it's very

important that we complete

0:26:250:26:28

the first phase successfully.

0:26:280:26:30

The first phase of the negotiations,

which looks at the financial

0:26:300:26:33

consequences of Great Britain

leaving the EU.

0:26:330:26:36

And then it's not a question

of punishment payments.

0:26:360:26:39

It's about when you are part

of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:390:26:42

obligation and you want to leave

that, then of course it takes

0:26:420:26:45

a whole lot of obligations

which you have to deal with,

0:26:450:26:48

so both sides are satisfied and can

live with the consequences.

0:26:480:26:57

It isn't everyone's interests

for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:570:27:02

Of course there was going to be

upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:020:27:05

but creating uncertainty over

the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:050:27:09

have a disruptive effect

on exports to UK markets.

0:27:090:27:14

Far better to have a sensible,

amicable negotiation that results

0:27:140:27:17

both sides being able to trade

together and work

0:27:170:27:20

together post-Brexit.

0:27:200:27:24

together post-Brexit.

0:27:240:27:26

Markus Krall is managing

director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:260:27:28

and heads the Financial

Institution Industry Group.

0:27:280:27:30

Is it true to say that,

if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:300:27:35

then a good Brexit can actually

strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:350:27:37

the European Union and Germany?

0:27:370:27:38

It's absolutely true.

0:27:380:27:41

I think that this

is about two things.

0:27:410:27:44

One, about proving that

free trade is possible

0:27:440:27:49

between a European Union that is

smaller and a former member country.

0:27:490:27:52

If you don't prove that free

trade is possible there,

0:27:520:27:55

then the question becomes,

what is Europe standing for?

0:27:550:27:59

Number two is, I also

believe the free trade,

0:27:590:28:04

free market and democratic and less

bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:040:28:08

has chosen as the path

into the future is a role

0:28:080:28:11

model for Europe.

0:28:110:28:14

The time has come both

for the United Kingdom

0:28:140:28:17

and for the EU to be more clear

about what kind of

0:28:170:28:19

deal we can achieve.

0:28:190:28:22

Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:220:28:24

As long as we remain open to free

trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:240:28:27

we can arrive at something that

will benefit both sides.

0:28:270:28:32

But one thing's obvious -

if we are an open and free trading

0:28:320:28:36

economy, we've got one big

cheerleader on our side,

0:28:360:28:38

and that is German business.

0:28:380:28:43

and that is German business.

0:28:430:28:44

That was Gisela Stuart

setting out her case

0:28:440:28:46

and we'll be hearing

from the opposite side

0:28:460:28:48

of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:480:28:50

Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio

now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:500:28:53

He used to work for Tony Blair

in Number 10, set up

0:28:530:28:56

the New European Newspaper

to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:560:28:57

and is so pro-European that at this

year's Labour conference

0:28:570:29:00

he was heard playing Ode

to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:29:000:29:02

Welcome both of you.

0:29:020:29:07

Welcome both of you.

0:29:070:29:07

We will start with your point in the

film, that you think the German

0:29:070:29:12

business once the EU to offer the UK

a generous deal because it is in

0:29:120:29:17

their interests, yet the president

of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:170:29:21

said that defending the single

market must be the priority for the

0:29:210:29:26

EU, and another says that the

cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:260:29:32

states remains the highest priority.

The president of the CBI just after

0:29:320:29:38

the referendum said that it would be

in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:380:29:43

tariffs and trade barriers. On the

UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:430:29:51

full understanding that economic

interests are incredibly important,

0:29:510:29:55

that they are trying to cover

economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:550:30:02

of the 27. I think different

economic interests will raise the

0:30:020:30:06

head of different countries. The

German auto industry is as important

0:30:060:30:14

as the financial sector is here. The

banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:140:30:20

the big riffs which were going on is

that the E U is losing its second

0:30:200:30:26

biggest net contributor. Countries

like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:260:30:30

that is a free open market. There

are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:300:30:37

wants to become more protectionist,

and that is a bad thing.

Looking at

0:30:370:30:41

the film there with the Jacob

Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:410:30:49

side of leave you are, it is

delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:490:30:54

thinking. You could find a

businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:540:30:58

good for Germany. The vast bulk of

British businesses think this is a

0:30:580:31:02

disaster, as do the vast bulk of

European businesses. One of the

0:31:020:31:07

delusions on which they ran their

campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:070:31:11

us more than we need them. That is

not true.

Be you self about £80

0:31:110:31:18

billion more in goods and services

into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:180:31:23

Germany has one of the biggest

deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:230:31:27

Of course it is, but it is a myth

that they need us more than we need

0:31:270:31:33

them. The damage that will be done

to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:330:31:39

be frank, where these negotiations

are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:390:31:45

end up with a bad deal and dumber or

no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:450:31:52

deal is a catastrophe.

You are

setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:520:31:59

there to begin with and knocking

them down. Delusional.

35 billion,

0:31:590:32:06

the Brexit bonus.

If we had a

referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:060:32:11

decision. I know you don't like it

and that a lot of business would

0:32:110:32:14

have preferred to stay with the

status quo. We have had the

0:32:140:32:19

referendum. Undermining political

institutions is in no one's

0:32:190:32:24

interests. It is functioning

democracies which lead to economic

0:32:240:32:30

stability.

Theresa May fought an

election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:300:32:37

was rejected.

As we heard from BMW,

there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:370:32:50

There will be elections, European

elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:500:32:55

change of the Commission and the

parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:550:33:00

to implement the mandate for the

referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:000:33:04

for. So rather than you undermining

this country, why don't you work

0:33:040:33:11

together to get the best deal?

Because we totally disagree.

You

0:33:110:33:15

don't want a good deal?

I'm in

favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:150:33:21

give them some advice as to how they

get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:210:33:27

cabinet that has an agreed strategy.

18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:270:33:33

I am not undermining a deal. I am

continuing to pose questions about

0:33:330:33:38

what they are trying to do and how

they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:380:33:44

democracy. Democracy is the ability

for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:440:33:49

its job properly, and the public, to

keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:490:33:53

to change their mind, having the

right to do that.

You were trying to

0:33:530:34:00

encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to

play hardball with the UK.

I am on

0:34:000:34:04

the side of the UK, and I am worried

that if we go down the path that we

0:34:040:34:10

are being taken down, and Theresa

May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:100:34:14

of them, this shambolic path, we are

going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:140:34:19

damage to the country we love. I

don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:190:34:24

Authority. I care about Britain. --

I don't care about the European

0:34:240:34:30

Union. If every lorry going into the

UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:300:34:38

minutes, we would create an instant

17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:380:34:44

just don't care...

I am not these

people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:440:34:54

either decide that you are

implementing a democratic decision

0:34:540:34:58

of a referendum that was called and

over 17 million voted.

You will not

0:34:580:35:04

stop me debating it. Just as Nigel

Farage...

Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:040:35:12

Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not

Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:120:35:23

Germany to punish the United

Kingdom.

They are behaving

0:35:230:35:28

reasonably.

There is a battle of

protectionism and free market going

0:35:280:35:33

on. If we implement this properly,

give businesses the kind of

0:35:330:35:38

incentives they want, we can get a

good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:380:35:45

You are driven by wishful thinking.

Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:450:35:51

business will intervene to prevent

things like tariffs being put in

0:35:510:35:55

place? They are leaving it a bit

late to put pressure on.

You will

0:35:550:36:00

find that business is laying out the

kind of things they need to get

0:36:000:36:03

those deals. I can find as much

fault with the speed of the

0:36:030:36:08

progress, but what I really do

resent is that you are actually

0:36:080:36:13

encouraging other countries to

undermine...

Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:130:36:21

out in support of the Irish

Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:210:36:25

time with Tony Blair and his team on

the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:250:36:28

people who are driving this hard

Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:280:36:32

still no answer on how you do Brexit

in our island without a hard border.

0:36:320:36:38

I think the Irish Taoiseach is right

to call out the government on the

0:36:380:36:46

incompetence and the fact they have

not thought it through.

You accept

0:36:460:36:50

the result of the referendum and the

fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:500:36:56

I accept the result of the

referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:560:37:01

the country will definitely leave,

because the country is entitled to

0:37:010:37:05

change its mind. As the chaos and

costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:050:37:10

to change its mind and will change

its mind.

There is no evidence at

0:37:100:37:16

the moment.

Come out with me!

Allow

me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:160:37:24

a changing of mind happening, a

crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:240:37:30

fought five elections and I have won

five elections. I have probably

0:37:300:37:36

spoken to more people like you.

You

may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:360:37:41

the road with me...

40% of the

population in the middle just want

0:37:410:37:47

us to get on with it. What that film

showed is that if you want to make

0:37:470:37:53

it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:530:37:59

want to implement a deal that is

good for British jobs. The rest of

0:37:590:38:04

the world is changing in terms of

technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:040:38:12

hasn't even got a government, and

nobody is laughing about that.

And

0:38:120:38:17

they are stable without a

government!

Let's leave it there.

0:38:170:38:20

Hello and welcome to

the Sunday Politics Wales.

0:38:280:38:30

In a few minutes, Michael Sheen

gives us his take on how Wales

0:38:300:38:33

is run and how he thinks

it could be better.

0:38:330:38:36

He tells us whether a career

as a professional politician

0:38:360:38:39

is on the cards.

0:38:390:38:42

But first, it's been

an astonishing week in Welsh

0:38:420:38:45

politics, with claims of a toxic

culture within Carwyn Jones'

0:38:450:38:48

government in the past.

0:38:480:38:50

Issues were dealt with at the time,

says the First Minister,

0:38:500:38:53

but that's not quite

what he said at the time.

0:38:530:38:56

And what about the important matter

of how women are treated

0:38:560:38:59

in politics in Wales?

0:38:590:39:02

The Chair of the Assembly's

Standards Committee has warned that

0:39:020:39:05

far from being any kind of instant

solution, it will "take

0:39:050:39:07

time" to address issues

of inappropriate behaviour.

0:39:070:39:10

Jayne Bryant also told this

programme it's "important

0:39:100:39:12

to get this right".

0:39:120:39:15

In a moment, we'll be asking two AMs

where we go from here.

0:39:150:39:18

First, Cemlyn Davies

has this report.

0:39:180:39:24

As accusations of bullying dominate

its discussions in the Assembly, it

0:39:240:39:30

was perhaps ironic that this

anti-bullying exhibition should be

0:39:300:39:34

on display in the Senedd this week.

The First Minister has faced tough

0:39:340:39:39

questions about the culture within

his administration after former

0:39:390:39:43

senior government collects spoke of

the toxic poisonous atmosphere they

0:39:430:39:47

say existed back in 2014. Others who

were part of carbon Jones's Cabinet

0:39:470:39:54

at the time have dismissed the

claims. At one woman who is not

0:39:540:39:59

surprised by the allegations is this

woman. She was a Labour councillor

0:39:590:40:05

in Cardiff but resigned in 2014,

just two years after being elected.

0:40:050:40:11

It plays on my mind and had a big

factor in me becoming disillusioned

0:40:110:40:15

with politics, I don't want to go on

to the specific details, but the

0:40:150:40:21

outcome of that incident was I

locked myself in my office in County

0:40:210:40:27

Hall and that the store remained

locked for the rest of the day.

0:40:270:40:30

Siobhan told me that the incident

related to intimidation and she was

0:40:300:40:35

unhappy at the way Welsh Lib. But

are concerned at the time.

Would you

0:40:350:40:39

say you were bullied? There was a

culture of bullying. It can be

0:40:390:40:44

subtle, it doesn't have to be a big

stand-off between two people. A lot

0:40:440:40:49

of the time it can go unnoticed by

the person doing the bullying and

0:40:490:40:54

the victim, that is why it is so

difficult to accept the back culture

0:40:540:40:57

is happening.

In a statement, Welsh

Labour claims.

0:40:570:41:02

The recent allegations of sexual

harassment and bullying have raised

0:41:210:41:24

difficult questions about the way we

do politics in Wales and on

0:41:240:41:30

Wednesday the Presiding Officer met

with the chair of the Assembly's

0:41:300:41:33

standards committee and the party

leaders to discuss what needs to be

0:41:330:41:37

done. They agreed to develop our

respect and dignity policy which

0:41:370:41:42

will spell out clearly that

inappropriate behaviour has no place

0:41:420:41:45

here.

It is really, really important

that we create an environment, a

0:41:450:41:55

safe environment for everybody who

works here and I'm keen that we do

0:41:550:41:59

we can to make sure that it is as

clear and fair as possible.

Is it a

0:41:590:42:03

cultural thing within the Assembly,

within politics, and is it something

0:42:030:42:09

that can be addressed quickly or

will it take a long time to address?

0:42:090:42:13

With some issues it is cultural, not

just in politics but throughout her

0:42:130:42:19

society, and I think that will take

time. What I would say about

0:42:190:42:24

anything that we do as a standards

committee it is really important we

0:42:240:42:28

get this right. But we can control

and the structures that we can

0:42:280:42:32

control, we need to take the time to

make sure we get this right because

0:42:320:42:36

we owe it to everybody involved that

we do.

HR experts agree that a joint

0:42:360:42:41

approach is the way forward.

There

needs to be something that is

0:42:410:42:46

cross-party, that there is a

standard amount across all parties

0:42:460:42:49

that people can be held accountable

to. Making sure that they have the

0:42:490:42:56

right levels of the HR support and

training the people in people

0:42:560:43:01

management positions, leadership

positions, so they understand their

0:43:010:43:05

responsibilities in taking this

issue seriously.

There is a

0:43:050:43:09

recognition in Cardiff Bay that more

must be done to support staff, but

0:43:090:43:13

what impact have the recent

allegations here and in Westminster

0:43:130:43:16

had done young people like the

students who are considering a

0:43:160:43:20

career in the field?

We have to wake

up and make the decision, I engaged

0:43:200:43:26

enough and passionate enough about

this? Will go into an industry that

0:43:260:43:30

I know it is likely that this will

happen, it is possible?

Now that the

0:43:300:43:36

cases are coming out now, it is a

lesson to me on what to do if I come

0:43:360:43:42

into that situation.

We should take

the positive from it and hope that

0:43:420:43:46

the next system will be better than

the one that comes before it.

0:43:460:43:50

Personally, I think it makes me and

others considering going into

0:43:500:43:56

politics to get into politics, so

that if we get into politics in the

0:43:560:44:00

future we are a new generation I can

do things better.

Have you misled

0:44:000:44:04

the Assembly, First Minister?

Absolutely not. Back in the here and

0:44:040:44:13

now, after allegations that Carwyn

Jones might have misled the Assembly

0:44:130:44:16

over possible bullying in the past,

the calls for greater scrutiny into

0:44:160:44:23

his actions have only increased the

pressure on the First Minister.

0:44:230:44:27

We should point out

that we asked the First Minister

0:44:270:44:29

to come on the programme,

but were told he wasn't available.

0:44:290:44:32

A further request to

interview any minister

0:44:320:44:34

from the Welsh Government

was also declined.

0:44:340:44:35

However, we're delighted

to welcome the Labour

0:44:350:44:37

AM for Swansea East,

Mike Hedges, and the Plaid Cymru

0:44:370:44:39

AM Simon Thomas, who's

in our studio in Aberystwyth.

0:44:390:44:44

Thank you both. Just looking, there

is so much to talk about, but just

0:44:440:44:55

looking at the week that Carwyn

Jones has had, in terms of the

0:44:550:45:01

claims about the toxic culture of

bullying, undermining in the past in

0:45:010:45:06

the Welsh Government, what do you

make of those claims?

I am

0:45:060:45:11

surprised. I am surprised if people

knew this three years ago nothing

0:45:110:45:16

was done. If you have a complaint

then you can go to the permanent

0:45:160:45:20

Secretary, you can go to the First

Minister. Also, the Labour Party has

0:45:200:45:24

its own rules over bullying. The

Labour Party will take action

0:45:240:45:32

against members to stop bullying.

Some form of report was written but

0:45:320:45:38

never shown to anyone. If we take

Leighton Andrews at its word for

0:45:380:45:44

that, does it surprise you that

nothing would have been done about

0:45:440:45:47

it?

At that stage Leighton Andrews

did not go to the Labour Party and

0:45:470:45:52

say that there was bullying going

on, I have taken it up at the First

0:45:520:45:58

Minister, I am unhappy with his

response on it enquiry. We all work

0:45:580:46:04

under Labour Party rules.

When you

hear this kind of thing coming out

0:46:040:46:09

now, I was talking to an MP last

week he said that old vendettas are

0:46:090:46:14

being settled here, and that has

been strongly denied by Leighton

0:46:140:46:17

Andrews, but what is your view on

why this is coming out now?

The last

0:46:170:46:23

conversation I had with Leighton

Andrews he told me I wasn't

0:46:230:46:26

supportive enough of the First

Minister! If you put ten people in a

0:46:260:46:33

room there will be quarrelling

taking place. If they are all

0:46:330:46:37

competing for advancement and there

will be more competition amongst

0:46:370:46:41

them. Having said that, if people

are being bullied they have a route

0:46:410:46:46

to take. They can go to the First

Minister, the permanent Secretary,

0:46:460:46:50

or they could go to the Labour Party

nationally and complain about it and

0:46:500:46:55

the Labour Party will engage in

enquiry.

I was watching the

0:46:550:46:59

statements about this in the chamber

and some of your colleagues in the

0:46:590:47:03

Labour group were seriously unhappy

when they were hearing what Carwyn

0:47:030:47:08

Jones was saying. What is truly put

the colleagues?

I have not heard

0:47:080:47:13

anybody say anything about it. The

great success for some of them is to

0:47:130:47:18

be able to talk about crying at the

moment, there is a huge upset over

0:47:180:47:23

the loss of Carl Sargeant. He was

loosely liked across the chamber who

0:47:230:47:29

was locked in the Labour group. It

is absolutely true in this case. He

0:47:290:47:35

always had time for people. He

wasn't one of those people who when

0:47:350:47:39

they walk down the corridor examined

the floor so people wouldn't talk to

0:47:390:47:46

him. He always had time for

everybody and people are really

0:47:460:47:50

upset. I don't think people have

moved on that's next stage yet, they

0:47:500:47:55

are still in the grieving stage.

On

the things that we have been hearing

0:47:550:48:01

in the Senedd this week over what

Carwyn Jones might have said back in

0:48:010:48:07

2014. He said on Tuesday that issues

have been addressed at the time,

0:48:070:48:11

although in 2014 he said no

accusations have been made. That has

0:48:110:48:15

led to some of your colleagues, but

mainly the Conservatives, has Carwyn

0:48:150:48:21

Jones misled the Assembly.

The two

statements are incompatible with

0:48:210:48:27

each other and needs to be an

estimation of the nature of the

0:48:270:48:32

allegations back in 2014 and how

they were dealt with at the time.

0:48:320:48:35

Most of us assume that the

allegations referred to are the ones

0:48:350:48:40

that Leighton Andrews and Steve

Jones have referred to publicly.

0:48:400:48:44

There is a body of evidence that

something happened in 2014 that was

0:48:440:48:49

directed to the First Minister, but

he did something about it but we

0:48:490:48:52

don't know what, but he denied it at

the time. Because he denied it at

0:48:520:48:57

the time other people perhaps being

bullied would not have felt

0:48:570:49:01

confident and coming forward. That

is the problem with the culture that

0:49:010:49:04

then gets colder bullying culture.

Is not that there aren't avenues to

0:49:040:49:09

bring things forward, it is

difficult to do so in a context

0:49:090:49:12

where many of us in politics regard

colleagues as part of our extended

0:49:120:49:17

family in and that is not per

nothing that we talk about the

0:49:170:49:21

Labour family or the Plaid Cymru

family.

A spokesman for Carwyn Jones

0:49:210:49:25

has said it was something similar to

bullying, not bullying that was

0:49:250:49:30

being discussed at the time. Is the

wording here very important or more

0:49:300:49:36

is at the spirit of the thing that

is important?

I think we should

0:49:360:49:40

focus on the spirit of the thing and

the culture that allows people to

0:49:400:49:43

speak openly and honestly. When they

hear wording like that, AM as a very

0:49:430:49:52

experienced lawyer, he is

experienced in dancing on the head

0:49:520:49:55

of a pin around precise use of

wording, and I don't think that is

0:49:550:49:59

sufficient any more to address the

serious problems.

The Conservatives

0:49:590:50:04

have asked for a special enquiry, is

that that anything you would be

0:50:040:50:08

supporting?

I am open minded as to

how we go forward.

They worked your

0:50:080:50:13

support on that.

Would you support

but they are calling for? You have

0:50:130:50:21

put your finger on the problem. It

is not just the opposition that can

0:50:210:50:27

demand this, Labour have to have for

this. I have not discussed that with

0:50:270:50:32

my colleagues but am sure we will

only return to the Assembly on

0:50:320:50:37

Tuesday, but I think it is important

that we have an independent

0:50:370:50:41

adjudicator of the ministerial code.

The problem at the moment is any

0:50:410:50:45

complaint made about the First

Minister is decided by the First

0:50:450:50:49

Minister. By clearly is not robust

enough nor does it give confidence

0:50:490:50:52

in the system where complaints are

taken seriously. The two aspects

0:50:520:50:59

need to be examined. I agree with

the Conservatives that they need to

0:50:590:51:04

be an assembly examination of what

the First Minister has said and

0:51:040:51:07

done, whether by committee or other

proceedings, but we have the

0:51:070:51:12

knowledge that there needs to be

some sort of independent scrutiny of

0:51:120:51:17

the First Minister does.

The problem

for Plaid Cymru, especially over

0:51:170:51:22

talks of bullying, it has been eight

months since a series of claims of

0:51:220:51:26

bullying was made against at Plaid

Cymru elected member yet here we are

0:51:260:51:30

nearly nine months on and no kind of

enquiry has taken place in Plaid

0:51:300:51:36

Cymru. The accusation Jura levelling

that Labour could be put to Plaid

0:51:360:51:41

Cymru, couldn't they?

Yes, and that

member has been the site -- that

0:51:410:51:52

member has been suspended. I don't

know much about these allegations. I

0:51:520:51:58

understand that the national

executive considers these yesterday.

0:51:580:52:00

I know that the need to pass a

series of amendments, they are

0:52:000:52:10

designed to have a robust procedure

in place to deal with this. We find

0:52:100:52:15

that we were wanting in Rome

procedures, but it doesn't mean that

0:52:150:52:17

the don't have at process in place

to deal with this night.

The death

0:52:170:52:25

of Carl Sargeant has the run

everything into turmoil, but in the

0:52:250:52:28

week leading up to that there was

talk about in Cardiff Bay about how

0:52:280:52:34

women are treated in politics. Is

there a concern that that has been

0:52:340:52:38

overlooked, that has been forgotten

and an important issue isn't being

0:52:380:52:42

addressed?

I dumping it has been

forgotten. My female colleagues will

0:52:420:52:46

make sure it will not be forgotten.

If people are being treated badly,

0:52:460:52:52

people are being sexually harassed,

then that is a very serious thing to

0:52:520:52:56

happen and we need action to take

part in it. I don't spend time in

0:52:560:53:02

the Assembly outside working hours.

I live in Swansea, I'm in the race

0:53:020:53:08

to get to my car to get home as soon

as possible. Others like Simon who

0:53:080:53:13

are in Cardiff on Monday to Thursday

may well see things happening

0:53:130:53:20

outside that I don't.

The party

leaders met with Elin Jones to look

0:53:200:53:27

at how you go ahead with this and

one of the things they were looking

0:53:270:53:31

at is the penalties for AM when the

act inappropriately. At the moment

0:53:310:53:36

it is a slap on the wrist. Does that

need to be strengthened, that maybe

0:53:360:53:41

at AM be faced with suspension if it

is proven they have acted

0:53:410:53:47

inappropriately?

Certainly. They

should be suspended. It is

0:53:470:53:51

unfortunately don't have a method by

which we can remove them from the

0:53:510:53:55

Assembly, depending on what people

have done. Council, for example, if

0:53:550:54:01

you get a six-month sentence, had a

suspended or not suspended, you

0:54:010:54:05

automatically lose your seat on the

council. I would like to see exactly

0:54:050:54:11

the same in the Assembly. Yes, they

need century and reviewed to see

0:54:110:54:15

people suspended and there are

actions that people have done that

0:54:150:54:22

have led to century went suspension

would have been better.

The

0:54:220:54:28

Assembly's standards Commissioner

will not be looking at the parties

0:54:280:54:31

procedures when it comes to dealing

with claims of harassment or

0:54:310:54:37

inappropriate behaviour. Would you

welcome some of the external coming

0:54:370:54:42

in and looking at Plaid Cymru's

rules and so on?

Yes, I would

0:54:420:54:46

welcome that. All parties need to

remain independent, but I think

0:54:460:54:51

afresh and independent light cast

over the rules and regulations would

0:54:510:54:56

be welcomed by any party that takes

these issues seriously. I understand

0:54:560:55:01

that Plaid Cymru has slipped for

external people to come and look at

0:55:010:55:06

our rules and regulations. I support

Mike hedges when he just talked

0:55:060:55:10

about the sanctions against

misbehaving by assembly members. We

0:55:100:55:15

had an assembly member a couple of

terms ago who assaulted an ambulance

0:55:150:55:19

worker but was allowed to remain in

the Assembly. I think that was a

0:55:190:55:23

time when we should have taken

firmer action.

Thank you both for

0:55:230:55:28

your time this morning.

0:55:280:55:29

Thank you both for your

time this morning.

0:55:290:55:31

He may be known to millions

as one of the most

0:55:310:55:33

talented actors around,

but these days Michael Sheen

0:55:330:55:35

is almost as well known

for his forays into Welsh politics.

0:55:350:55:38

This week he was in Merthyr

at a lecture for the Learning

0:55:380:55:41

and Work Institute,

where he re-asked, "Who

0:55:410:55:42

speaks for Wales?"

0:55:420:55:44

It's obviously an important question

in terms of the development

0:55:440:55:46

of devolution and other issues,

not least of all Brexit.

0:55:460:55:48

So when I caught up with him

before his talk, I began

0:55:480:55:51

by asking him what points

he was trying to make.

0:55:510:56:00

The Raymond Williams lecture, and

Raymond Williams's work, his

0:56:000:56:07

Internat channel -- international

reputation wasn't really based on

0:56:070:56:09

what it will about whales, but

specifically for this lecture I have

0:56:090:56:14

been reading everything he did write

about wheels and what he did write

0:56:140:56:18

was incredibly influential. One of

the pieces that he wrote in 1971 was

0:56:180:56:23

called who speaks for Wales? I have

taken that as my starting point.

0:56:230:56:28

What I find so fascinating about

reading his work is that the talked

0:56:280:56:32

about how it is the past and the

present relate to each other that is

0:56:320:56:36

most telling about the culture. In

looking at things like Welsh

0:56:360:56:41

identity, Welsh history and politics

now you have to go back to the past,

0:56:410:56:46

you have to state within the context

of the past and see how those two

0:56:460:56:50

things come together.

What elements

of the past that you think most...

0:56:500:56:55

Has that ability to ship where we

are now?

The work that I have been

0:56:550:57:00

doing over the last few years

wheels, visiting people, seeing

0:57:000:57:04

projects going on in communities,

talking to people in the Welsh

0:57:040:57:08

Government and different

organisations, I have got the

0:57:080:57:11

opportunity because of my small

amount of celebrity. I have an

0:57:110:57:17

opportunity to meet lots of

different types of people. One of

0:57:170:57:20

the things I have come away with is

a sense of infrastructure or an

0:57:200:57:26

institutional framework that is a

little bit delicate. It is not quite

0:57:260:57:31

as developers could have been, not

when you go to places like Scotland.

0:57:310:57:36

In looking at why that is the case,

all you have to do is start going

0:57:360:57:41

back into history and you see that

there have been moments of since the

0:57:410:57:44

Roman invasion where the beginnings

of something the beginnings of a

0:57:440:57:49

nation state, or at least the first

steps towards that, start to emerge

0:57:490:57:54

time and time again and are stopped

at a certain point. By the time you

0:57:540:58:06

do get to Henry VIII and the acts of

union something changes

0:58:060:58:12

fundamentally there and Wales is a

simulated into England's. For Wales,

0:58:120:58:20

see England, that famous

Encyclopaedia 1888 entry. So, there

0:58:200:58:29

is a reason why there is a certain

kind of difference between what we

0:58:290:58:35

have in Wales now and what was in

Scotland. Scotland had a monarchy,

0:58:350:58:41

we didn't. Scotland had a parliament

long before we have an assembly.

0:58:410:58:44

There is an list -- an institutional

framework that was not there, a

0:58:440:58:50

history of that. When you look at

things like the first time we have

0:58:500:58:54

the referendum about assembly powers

in 1979, 12% of our electorate voted

0:58:540:59:02

to have that. It was a resounding

refusal to start the process of

0:59:020:59:07

having your own powers. Then you

think, what changed between 1979 and

0:59:070:59:13

1997 estimate the Thatcher

government, everything that happened

0:59:130:59:16

in the South Wales valleys areas

around heavy industry and seeing how

0:59:160:59:22

vulnerable position the country

could be in. Even then in 1997 it

0:59:220:59:26

was less than 1%, just over half a

percent difference. I find that

0:59:260:59:31

fascinating. Looking Brexit, in

terms of the history of the

0:59:310:59:36

relationship between Wales and

England, it is remarkable to me that

0:59:360:59:41

when it comes to the Brexit vote,

unlike Scotland or Northern Ireland,

0:59:410:59:48

Wales voted in lockstep with

England. I just find that

0:59:480:59:53

fascinating, but given that tortuous

relationship between the two

0:59:530:59:57

countries and the dominance of the

English culture on Wales, what is

0:59:571:00:01

that all about? How did that happen?

What is it all about, why did that

1:00:011:00:08

happen?

I think there are a number

of reasons. Some of the things I

1:00:081:00:13

explored within it is the idea that

I never got off Welsh history at

1:00:131:00:16

school. Everything I'm talking about

in this lecture I discovered in the

1:00:161:00:23

last few years, said Julie. I

remember being in school and being

1:00:231:00:27

told to write an essay that started

you are a Roman soldier on patrol,

1:00:271:00:33

what do you see? Now I think, I

think, who cares, what about the

1:00:331:00:41

Welsh people, what are they see?

Bride-to-be look at it from our

1:00:411:00:44

point of view. That disconnection

from your past and understanding

1:00:441:00:50

what is going on in context is

really important. Most importantly

1:00:501:00:56

is the fact that the opportunities

for us as a nation, as people to

1:00:561:01:00

talk to each other and have these

conversations, argued there might

1:01:001:01:04

still limited. A lot of our media

comes from ancient. This programme

1:01:041:01:10

is tagged on to a programme coming

from England. All the fantastic

1:01:101:01:16

work, and I love the work that you

do, think it is amazing and I would

1:01:161:01:20

love to see more of it, I would love

to see more opportunities for these

1:01:201:01:26

conversations, to be able to set it

in the context of Welsh history and

1:01:261:01:31

in the were we really are at the

moment. There needs to be more of

1:01:311:01:35

that. Local journalism has collapsed

across Wales. In Port Talbot in 1970

1:01:351:01:42

we had five newspapers with 11

reporters all based on offices, now

1:01:421:01:46

we have none.

The fragility of the

institution to wheels, you'd think

1:01:461:01:55

it is a lack of sense of self or

Welsh people that is leading to

1:01:551:01:58

that?

We have had difficulty in

reckoning with our past. Partly

1:01:581:02:08

because of outside influences, the

fact that Welsh media is a reserve

1:02:081:02:12

power for Westminster. You could say

there is at this interest in Welsh

1:02:121:02:18

infrastructure comment from England,

it seems like that at times, but

1:02:181:02:22

also from within because we have the

two main parties in Wales, Welsh

1:02:221:02:30

Labour and Plaid Cymru, there is

such a danger of overlap that the

1:02:301:02:33

carving out a political space I

think in some ways has led to a

1:02:331:02:38

restriction in what the parameters

of a corsage. Then, in order to have

1:02:381:02:46

local communities engage in that,

the opportunities for that have been

1:02:461:02:50

so restricted. I'm not saying it has

been on purpose, but in terms of the

1:02:501:02:56

incentive to develop more

inclusivity, more outreach, I'm not

1:02:561:02:59

entirely sure what the incentive is

there. Why would anyone be

1:02:591:03:06

incentivised to develop local

journalistic infrastructure, greater

1:03:061:03:09

accountability for government, why

would they be incentivised to

1:03:091:03:14

develop that? And not saying it is

conscious. You just look at the

1:03:141:03:20

currents within Welsh culture at the

moment and I think there is a

1:03:201:03:24

certain star says going on that is

maybe holding us back.

The

1:03:241:03:29

Conservatives would argue that they

are the third main party in Wales, I

1:03:291:03:35

should say. If you accept the point

that you're making that there is

1:03:351:03:42

asked that says a lack of stuff

happening, how do you overcome that?

1:03:421:03:46

Greater engagement. When I have gone

to various public service delivers

1:03:461:03:55

or anyone in authority since the

Brexit referendum all key here is we

1:03:551:03:59

must listen more, we have to listen,

we haven't been listening properly.

1:03:591:04:04

It is as if listening you can do

just like that. You have to learn

1:04:041:04:09

how to listen. It's not easy. Any

time you go wild with an agenda

1:04:091:04:15

apart from just listen everything

you hear challenges your prejudices.

1:04:151:04:23

To be able to listen and not be

selective about what you hear, that

1:04:231:04:26

is a challenge. To actually engage

with the communities across fools

1:04:261:04:32

who don't feel they have a stake in

the Welsh theatre as it is. A lot of

1:04:321:04:37

communities think that money and

inclusivity doesn't get beyond

1:04:371:04:41

Cardiff. Engaged to those

communities, listen to people at the

1:04:411:04:45

front line of serving the needs of

communities, then developing

1:04:451:04:49

policies through that. Back you said

earlier on to modesty that you have

1:04:491:04:56

a small amount of celebrity.

To what

end do you want to use that

1:04:561:04:59

celebrity? You have spoken in the

past about wanting to engage more

1:04:591:05:06

politically. Is this part of you

coming more into the political

1:05:061:05:10

world? Yes, political but with a

small p. Would it ever be with the

1:05:101:05:16

big P questionable at ever be in

Parliament?

If I ever thought that

1:05:161:05:22

they could be more affected by being

in a political party in Wales than I

1:05:221:05:26

would do it. At the moment I feel I

can be most effective being outside

1:05:261:05:30

of the political parties so that I

have my own independence, my own

1:05:301:05:36

financial independence. I have a

media platform to a certain extent

1:05:361:05:40

myself and I be able to move fairly

freely within different worlds

1:05:401:05:44

within wheels, bring people together

that might normally not want to, at

1:05:441:05:51

least you can get people in the room

who would not normally have that

1:05:511:05:54

conversation. I feel that is the way

I can be most effective at the

1:05:541:05:58

moment. It has been said that the

purpose of power is to give it away.

1:05:581:06:06

I'm starting to understand that now.

So few people in Wales. They have a

1:06:061:06:11

voice and I feel that the purpose of

having a voice now is to allow other

1:06:111:06:16

people to speak through it.

Michael

Sheen, thank you for your time.

1:06:161:06:21

Michael Sheen, thank

you for your time.

1:06:211:06:23

While the current focus

of Brexit is on the battle

1:06:231:06:25

in the Commons over

the Withdrawal Bill

1:06:251:06:27

looking at how we leave the EU,

what are our MEPs doing?

1:06:271:06:30

What kind of issues are being raised

with them when they're

1:06:301:06:32

at the European Parliament

in Brussels or Strasbourg?

1:06:321:06:34

The Conservative MEP

Dr Kay Swinburne

1:06:341:06:36

is here with me now.

1:06:361:06:40

is here with me now.

1:06:401:06:41

Thank you for coming in. For a

Conservative MEP he is very much

1:06:411:06:48

prove remaining in the European

Union, a lot of people might be

1:06:481:06:51

asking, what is it that you do now?

How is it for the British politician

1:06:511:06:57

to in Brussels?

It very much depends

on what your wall was beforehand. My

1:06:571:07:05

wall before the referendum was very

much helping on financial services

1:07:051:07:10

and Europe religion matters with

regards to the legislation. So that

1:07:101:07:16

continues. My day job continues as

if nothing has happened. Not only

1:07:161:07:20

have I got as much work as I had

done previously, I have still got as

1:07:201:07:25

many reports where I am leaving for

the parliament on those pieces of

1:07:251:07:29

legislation, even in financial

services where there are some

1:07:291:07:34

sensitivities about a British person

taking the role.

It is almost

1:07:341:07:39

counterintuitive. As we approach

Brexit, your colleagues in Brussels

1:07:391:07:42

might be saying, well, we should be

pushing them away, but they are

1:07:421:07:48

joined in?

Part of it is pragmatic.

If you have the skills to do a

1:07:481:07:56

certain job, they have always given

that where they can within the

1:07:561:07:59

political system to the people who

can do the work. I have always been

1:07:591:08:04

very grateful for the trust and

confidence in me. It seems that has

1:08:041:08:08

increased not diminished as a

result. Some would say they are

1:08:081:08:12

making the most of the British skill

set while they have still got it.

1:08:121:08:20

How did they view Brexit, is a

despair, anger?

I think they have

1:08:201:08:24

moved on. It is almost as if it is

the different stages of grief. They

1:08:241:08:30

have come to terms with it and are

now looking forward so much that

1:08:301:08:35

they are planning their future as an

EU 27 and are not spending much time

1:08:351:08:41

discussing the Brexit negotiations

because all of that at this stage is

1:08:411:08:44

all about Article 50, about how we

actually leave, and those

1:08:441:08:49

discussions have been taken out to a

team with a group of civil servants

1:08:491:08:59

who have been hand selected to do

these negotiations. All we are being

1:08:591:09:03

axed to do on the Brexit side at the

moment is to pass judgment on

1:09:031:09:07

whether sufficient progress has been

made by those civil servants in the

1:09:071:09:11

discussions.

It must be difficult

for use striking a balance between

1:09:111:09:20

writing reports for the remaining 27

countries on the one hand, but as

1:09:201:09:25

unelected British politician wanting

to get the best for the UK out of

1:09:251:09:29

Brexit.

Is it a tricky situation? It

is pulling deep in some of those

1:09:291:09:34

relationships you have built up over

the last 89 years, in my case. Those

1:09:341:09:41

relationships are quite strong, the

network is deep, so I am trusted to

1:09:411:09:45

do the work.

But you are an elected

UK politician trying to get the best

1:09:451:09:53

from your constituents. As it that

element that is tricky?

I think they

1:09:531:09:58

know that as a Conservative member I

am involved in helping my

1:09:581:10:03

Conservative Cabinet members, trying

to work out what the solutions are

1:10:031:10:06

after us leaving, but they also know

that just as we were invoking

1:10:061:10:14

Article 50, with the commentary at

the time that they would like us to

1:10:141:10:19

be the bridge between the two camps,

to take the messaging back of the

1:10:191:10:24

pragmatic solutions we think might

work back to the heart of Cabinet,

1:10:241:10:28

and therefore influence of their

decisions.

Talking to the UK Cabinet

1:10:281:10:33

members, what is your view of how

they are dealing with the Brexit

1:10:331:10:36

negotiations? BCB splits,

undermining and this that and the

1:10:361:10:42

other. From Brussels, how do you see

is the way this process is being

1:10:421:10:47

handled by the UK Government?

I have

the benefit of seeing both sides.

1:10:471:10:53

The way the EU is dealing with

things is not always perfect, and

1:10:531:10:57

the way my own government is dealing

with this, which in some terms as a

1:10:571:11:02

British way of dealing with things.

It has always been the EU 28

1:11:021:11:09

countries coming together to find a

compromise, and there are special

1:11:091:11:13

ways of negotiating bad. My

colleagues have taken a little while

1:11:131:11:16

to get into the spirit of what an EU

the grittiest looks like.

He is

1:11:161:11:21

handling a better, the UK or the EU

27?

They are now speaking the same

1:11:211:11:27

language. There were occasions in

the early months were there were

1:11:271:11:31

maybe saying and agree on certain

things, then going away and

1:11:311:11:35

realising they were in different

positions.

Is that good enough? We

1:11:351:11:39

hear that the clock is ticking. Only

now are they speaking the same

1:11:391:11:45

language. Will we run out of time

before the negotiations need to be

1:11:451:11:49

in place are in place?

What we need

to move on with quickly, and I hope

1:11:491:11:54

this will happen in the next couple

of weeks when we get into December

1:11:541:11:58

and the next council meeting, is

that there will be a green light for

1:11:581:12:02

the next age of the negotiations,

which look at the future

1:12:021:12:06

relationship. It is difficult to

negotiate your settlement with the

1:12:061:12:11

EU unless you know what you are

transitioning to and how you will

1:12:111:12:15

transition because the sums of money

involved will be very different if

1:12:151:12:18

it is going to be a longer

transition or a shorter transition.

1:12:181:12:23

I think these are important messages

that my colleagues in the EU 27 need

1:12:231:12:28

to know where we want to get to as a

final end result. I would hope that

1:12:281:12:33

we start those discussions after

that December council meeting.

1:12:331:12:39

Should it be the longer transition

period or a shorter transition

1:12:391:12:44

period?

For me, knowing how

complicated some of the issues are

1:12:441:12:48

and how we extricate ourselves from

40 years of legislation, it is not

1:12:481:12:53

about the time but about the detail

we need to go into to make sure that

1:12:531:12:57

both sides have a workable solution

when we do come out completely. That

1:12:571:13:03

transition is not about extending

our membership, it is solely about

1:13:031:13:07

finding the right solutions for both

parties during that period. If it

1:13:071:13:12

takes two years, then fine, but if

it takes longer we should be

1:13:121:13:15

open-minded about it.

Thank you for

coming in this morning.

1:13:151:13:19

Thank you for coming

in this morning.

1:13:191:13:20

That's it for another week.

1:13:201:13:21

If you can't wait til next Sunday

for your fix of Welsh politics,

1:13:211:13:25

don't forget Wales Live

on Wednesday night at 10.30pm,

1:13:251:13:27

but for now that's all from me.

1:13:271:13:28

Diolch am wylio.

1:13:281:13:29

Thanks for watching.

1:13:291:13:30

Hwyl fawr.

1:13:301:13:32

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