11/02/2018 Sunday Politics Wales


11/02/2018

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LineFromTo

Morning, everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is the programme that

will provide your essential briefing

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on everything that's moving

and shaking in the

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world of politics.

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After all the waiting we're

finally going to hear

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the Prime Minister's vision

for Britain's future relationship

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with the European Union,

but not for another couple of weeks.

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Key to any agreement will be

whether we should bind our customs'

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arrangements closely to the EU,

or strike out on our own.

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We'll speak to leading figures

from both sides of the argument.

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And Labour argue public

ownership of services

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like the railways are

an "economic necessity".

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We'll look at how

the policy could work

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and whether it's on the right track.

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and whether it's on the right track.

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and whether it's on the right track.

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Who needs the Winter Olympics

when there's plenty

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of thrills, spills and potential

wipeouts in the world

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of Westminster.

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And with me today are three experts

who may very well go off piste:

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Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun,

the Guardian's Zoe Williams

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and Iain Martin from the Times.

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So we hear that Theresa May

will finally be giving her

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vision of a Brexit deal

in the next few weeks.

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The news follows Mrs May hosting two

Brexit cabinet meetings this week

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in an attempt to thrash out

the government's

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negotiating position.

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If reports are to be believed

not much was decided,

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and so there will now have to be

a team building session

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at the prime minister's

country residence Chequers.

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Maybe a few trust exercises

will be in order.

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At the moment however we're none

the wiser and the EU's Chief

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Negotiator Michel Barnier seems

less than impressed.

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To start the week the EU chief

negotiator, Michel Barnier,

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made a trip to Downing Street

with Brexit secretary David Davis.

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Pleasantries with the PM,

but the warning was clear.

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Time has come to make choice.

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Time has come to make choice.

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All week the question was,

are the Cabinet running

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away from making tough

decisions on Brexit?

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As America woke up, the President

took a pop at the

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National Health Service on Twitter.

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But was it all fake news?

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The Health Secretary hit back.

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The Health Secretary hit back.

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The Transport Secretary,

Chris Grayling, told the Commons

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that yet again the East Coast

mainline franchise had failed,

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with renationalisation an option.

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While tensions in the

Conservative Party on Brexit

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were on full display.

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One leading Tory Remainer

did not hold back.

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35 hard ideological Brexiteers

who are not Tories.

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It's about time Theresa May stood up

to them and slung them out.

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On Tuesday, deeds and words,

MPs celebrated 100 years since

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some women were given the vote.

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Westminster awash with suffragette

colours purple, green, and white.

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Wednesday and Thursday,

the Brexit War Cabinet settled

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in for crunch talks.

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They were meant to decide

what the end state should look like.

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Breakthrough?

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Not yet.

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Also on Thursday, a leaked EU paper

warned that the UK's single market

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access in the Brexit transition

period could be revoked

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in the event of a dispute.

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Discourteous?

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The Brexit secretary thought so.

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It's not in good faith.

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We think it's unwise

to publish that.

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The week ended as it

began, with more warnings

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from Michel Barnier on Ireland,

the customs union,

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and continuing EU UK disputes.

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If this disagreement persists,

the transition is not a given.

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So, at the end of a busy week why

not let off steam with a glass

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or two of Brexit juice,

that's English sparkling wine

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to you and me, at the annual

Conservative fundraiser the black

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and white ball.

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The highest bid of the night?

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£55,000 to spend a day with the PM.

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£55,000 to spend a day with the PM.

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We could not afford to get her on to

this programme but we will talk to

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our panel of experts to find out

what is going on behind the

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headlines. Iain Martin, by now we

thought we would know more about the

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government's final negotiating

position. We had two Brexit

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subcommittee meetings this week.

They were meant to come to a

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conclusion I thought. Are we any

further forward?

No. It is possible

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this is a cunning baldric style plan

to make Britain look as confused as

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possible.

A very, very cunning plan.

Very cunning. But the chances of

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that are highly unlikely. It seems

the meeting has happened, there was

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discussion, the Prime Minister did

not express an opinion. The Prime

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Minister was more interested in

secrecy and in fear of a leak, but

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it seems there was not much to leak

anyway, because there was not a

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decision. Actually, the UK's closer

to a position than people commonly

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understand, definitely out of the

single market, but on this crucial

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question of the customs union, or a

customs agreement after, there is

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still no decision taken. I think the

feeling at Westminster, people on

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both sides of the argument seems to

be will someone decide, make the

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case and then get stuck into the

talks which lets remember our

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supposed to begin in six or seven

weeks' time.

This Brexit

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subcommittee is split between

Brexiteers and Remainers. The Prime

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Minister sits in the middle we

understand not really expressing a

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view, that is put together for

careful political reasons but it

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cannot continue, can it?

I think the

presentation at the minute cannot

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come to a decision because they have

not done their homework, student

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essay style crisis conclusion and in

the case of David Davis you could

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believe that is true but the main

reason they cannot come together is

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because of an implacable deadlock.

There is no compromise between in

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the customs union or not in the

customs union. One side has to

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vanquish the other. The Remainers

really have to think it would be

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economic suicide to leave the

customs union but they are also

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really aware that this deadlock is

grinding government to halt. It is

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national duty pulling them in two

directions. They will ultimately be

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the ones to say I do not want to cut

the baby in half, you have the baby.

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At some point it will have to go to

the country because it is a stupid

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idea to cut a baby in half expect

what will happen for the Prime

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Minister who will have to make a

decision for the kind Brexit she has

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advocated?

She will do that and the

danger is huge. She will have to get

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off the perch at some point. We have

been sitting in these chairs for 20

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months saying the Prime Minister has

to choose between prioritising

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market access and prioritise and

sovereignty. That is the simple

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case. You may get a bit of both out

of the EU but you will get more of

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one than the other. I think

interestingly, there is a lot of

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movement going on under the surface

which Number Ten are desperate not

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to show any of the machinations of

it because they want to present a

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complete finished article. There is

some sense of consensus growing in

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the Brexit community I am told, not

to sign off on a customs union but

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to sign off on a semi-single market

alignment, soap aligning with all

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the single market rules on

manufactured goods is what I am told

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they are beginning to agree to do,

which they feel they should do

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because British companies will go

ahead and stand by all the EU

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regulations because that is what

they want to continue to sell into

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the EU. There are some members of

the committee who are opposed to

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this. Boris Johnson is the main one.

If they do agree to allow heavily on

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manufactured goods but not on

services, in other words they choose

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what to Jerry picked and can agree

what to cherish pick -- cherry pick,

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but if they choose what to align on

Ben Boris Johnson has do make a

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decision himself.

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decision himself. We could

potentially see some Cabinet

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resignations and I put Boris Johnson

at the head of it in two or three

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weeks' time. That is the root of the

potential compromise.

On services,

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on financial services, there is not

a functioning single market. The

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question comes down to manufactured

goods. A lot of the regulations have

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their origins in global standards,

something like the car industry. Is

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Boris Johnson going to find himself

in a position where he will die in a

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ditch over trying to make the UK

diverged from globally set standards

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on carburettors? It would be an

interesting position if he does.

It

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sounds ridiculous but it also sounds

like the sort of thing he will do.

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We will come back to this later in

the programme.

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As it's still not clear

what the government wants its final

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relationship with the EU will look

like, we thought we'd

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try to help out by looking

in detail at the key dilemma,

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when it comes to working out

a customs arrangement,

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should we hug the EU close,

or break out on our own?

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We've lined up two politicians

from either side of the argument

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and, just for a change,

they'll be asking

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the questions not me.

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So I'm joined by the soon to be

former Conservative MEP and leading

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figure in the Leave campaign

Daniel Hannan and by the former

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Labour frontbencher and supporter

of Open Britain Seema Malhotra.

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Earlier this morning we tossed

a coin to see who would go first.

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Daniel Hannan won and he agreed that

he would go first.

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So here with thoughts

on what our end

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relationship should be.

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relationship should be.

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90% of the world's economic growth

over the next 15 years will come

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from outside the European Union.

Britain is a maritime nation, linked

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to the world's fastest-growing

economies by language, law, culture

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and kinship. But we cannot sign

trade deals, not while we are in the

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EU's customs union. Staying in the

customs union after we leave, would

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be the worst of all worlds. It would

give Brussels 100% of our trade

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policy with 0% input from us. In

order to take advantage of Brexit,

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we need to set our own regulations.

Sometimes, for reasons of economies

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of scale, we might want to match

what the EU is doing. If we do want

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to keep elements of the single

market, it must be through agreement

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and on a case-by-case basis. In

1980, the states now in the European

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Union counted for 30% of the world's

GDP. Today that figure is 15% and

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falling. Britain needs to raise its

size. Our future bright, our future

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is global.

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Well, Seema and Dan are with me now.

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And just to explain the rules.

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Seema Malhotra has five minutes to

interrogate down.

This week a Tory

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MP said I think the real concern

about the direction of travel when

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it comes to Brexit, we are to real

crunch point and the government has

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not worked out 19 months on what the

endgame is and we need to know. That

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is pretty clear, isn't it? You and

others said Brexit will be easy so

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why is this the case?

Nothing

worthwhile is ever easy. I do not

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accept that the government has not

made it position clear. It made it

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clear in Lancaster House beach and a

series of white papers since. As

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Theresa May says we want to keep

control of our laws, taxes and

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borders. But within that, we want to

have the closest possible

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relationship with the rest of the

EU, compatible with being a

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sovereign country. We want to be its

best friend and ally. We will align

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with other countries but on our own

terms.

Things are not going

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according to plan. You and others

said we will be keeping key

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agencies. David Davis said we would

keep the agencies but now they are

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leaving. The European medicines

agency is heading for Amsterdam, the

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European banking agency will go to

Paris. That is 2000 highly skilled

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jobs being lost from the capital.

Isn't this a high price we are

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paying for certainty?

If you're that

fixated on Eurocrats jobs then you

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there is something wrong with your

priorities. All of the worries we

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had about job losses turned out to

be nonsense. Instead of losing half

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a million, we have gained half a

million. More people are working

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than ever before. I never claimed we

would be keeping these Euro agencies

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in the UK. Of course if you leave

the EU you leave these Euro agencies

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and you no longer have them on our

soil. We will make our own

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regulations.

You are calling these

agencies Eurocrats, these are people

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helping with key sectors of our

economy, scientists, those who are

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experts in finance and other

sectors. I agree that Britain could

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trade more with the world and we

need to, but evidence of leaks from

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the government this week shows that

the impact of free trade deals

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around the world will no way

compensate for the loss of trade

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with the EU which a hard Brexit

would do for the UK. If you don't

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believe me, you can listen to the

words of the Prime Minister who said

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during the referendum we export more

to Ireland than we do to China,

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twice as much to Belgium as we do to

India, it is not realistic to think

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we could replace European trade than

these markets.

We export more to

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Ireland than China, that is our

problem! Which is the better

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long-term growth prospects?

Don't

you agree that there will be an

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impact on British businesses and

families even in the short term and

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isn't it right that you raise that

risk with the British people?

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Obviously we want free and

frictionless trade with the EU and

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the freedom to my trade deals

further of broad. EU does not have a

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trade deal with US, with India and

old friends like Australia, the idea

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that we cannot do trade deals and

bring benefits to this country I

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think is incredibly defeatist. Are

we really saying it is a good idea

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to sell more to Ireland with five

mil in people than to China with

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more than a billion. -- 5 million

people.

Their study after study

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which shows the proximity we have

two nations goes a long way to

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determining our economic links, that

is not just the case for us but for

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countries around the world. Of

course we can do more. We have a

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trade surplus with the US already. I

have spoken to investors from other

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countries who say they want to come

and do more in the UK but the point

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is, part of the reason they do that

is because we have access and they

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have access to the European markets

of 500 million people to sell those

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goods as well. What do you say to

the genuine concerns from Nissan and

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Honda, now even the Japanese

ambassador talking about a challenge

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to the profitability of those

companies in the UK, and the threat

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they may have to leave those

operations and go elsewhere?

They

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made those threats during the

referendum and after the vote was in

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they confirmed that not only were

they staying here but Nissan was

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increasing its productivity and

activity in the UK. I think you

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should look at what they are doing

rather than what they are saying.

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This idea that we are defined by our

geography is an old-fashioned

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18th-century way of looking at

trade. In the modern age where we

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have low freight costs, the Internet

and cheap flights, geographical

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proximity has never mattered less.

We are linked by language, law,

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cultural, legal systems and

accountancy systems to the fastest

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growing con is the planet.

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I would like to ask you, you have

set all your vision for how you

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would like to see our future

relationship with the EU. How

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confident are you the Prime Minister

will outline a clear vision soon and

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it will outline with Ewels?

She's

outlined the broad principles

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already. -- with yours. Fleshing out

issues like how to make the Irish

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border were, how to make the

facilitation of customs work. This

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thing nobody has explained what we

can do in terms of customs is not

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true. The government produced a

lengthy paper talking about how we

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can do things like expand the ...

It's worth noting that both ahead of

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HMR see here and his equivalent in

the Republic of Ireland have said

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there is no need for a Customs

border, that companies can make

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their customs declarations in the

way they make their tax

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declarations. They are now

emphatically not choosing to listen

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to the experts when they say they

don't need a hard order in Ireland.

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Thanks.

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Now it's the turn of Seema

to be grilled but first,

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here's her thoughts on how

our future relationship

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with the EU should look.

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I respect the result of the

referendum. We need to move forward

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to find a deal that protects jobs in

the economy. 43% of all of our trade

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is done with the EU. Staying inside

the customs union gives us tariff

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free trade access to our many new

partners. Issues surrounding

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immigration and sovereignty can be

addressed while staying in the

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customs union and the single market.

But on terms that we negotiate. We

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can also then trade freely with

countries the EU has deals with.

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Deals that we have helped negotiate.

And staying in the customs union is

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key to a solution on Ireland. Our

select committee found that it is

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unclear how we can avoid a hardboard

if we leave the customs union. I

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agree we need reform and greater

controls on the freedom of movement,

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but people did not vote to become

poorer. Let's leave the European

0:19:190:19:23

Union in a way that puts the

prosperity of families and

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businesses first.

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So as before you have five

minutes to give a grilling.

0:19:290:19:31

Off you go.

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Two weeks ago Jeremy Corbyn says

said he was against staying in the

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customs union because it is

protectionist against developing

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countries, do you agree?

It's

important to balance what we do need

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to see change in terms of

international trade and support for

0:19:450:19:49

developing countries. But also to

recognise the contribution that

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being in the customs union and the

European Union has made for our

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prosperity...

Do you agree with

Jeremy Corbyn?

I think that a lot

0:19:550:20:02

has been done to support

development, International

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development...

Forgive me, that's a

different question... We're not

0:20:050:20:08

talking about that, do you agree

that the customs union is

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protectionist against developing

countries?

It can be for those

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countries that are in the customs

union. That's very understood

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economics. It encourages trade

creation and development between

0:20:220:20:27

those countries, but it doesn't

preclude, as has been shown by the

0:20:270:20:32

over 60 trade agreements we have is

a European Union with countries

0:20:320:20:35

around the rolled, from having

strong relationships with other

0:20:350:20:38

countries. That's what I believe. --

countries around the world.

There

0:20:380:20:42

are lots of things we do not produce

ourselves. We have to impose tariffs

0:20:420:20:47

on oranges. In yours and my

constituencies there are not orange

0:20:470:20:53

plantations. Is it a reasonable

thing that to protect Mediterranean

0:20:530:20:57

orange growers we should be

discriminating against producers in

0:20:570:21:00

Africa, the Americas, developing

countries, at a cost our own

0:21:000:21:04

consumers?

I believe what you can do

is negotiate across the world in

0:21:040:21:09

terms of how you encourage greater

free trade and greater ways in which

0:21:090:21:12

we can trade with different nations.

That's what we do also already. We

0:21:120:21:17

had no Norma 's track record in

investing in farmers in Africa...

On

0:21:170:21:22

that point... -- we have had an

enormous track record. That means we

0:21:220:21:27

are giving Brussels total control of

our trade policies but we are no

0:21:270:21:31

longer EU members so we have no

control.

Almost 50% of our trade is

0:21:310:21:35

with the EU. Over 70% of the

companies... Over 70% of companies

0:21:350:21:43

that export to the EU, that is jobs

your constituents and my

0:21:430:21:47

constituents will be dependent on,

over 90% of that being small and

0:21:470:21:51

medium-size enterprises. They

look...

I'm not having much joy

0:21:510:21:55

getting answers to my questions. You

are going off on a tangent. Let me

0:21:550:22:00

have another go.

I'm saying we can

do both and that is what we should

0:22:000:22:04

be doing.

You think leaving the EU

but staying in the customs union so

0:22:040:22:08

Brussels controls 100% of our

0:22:080:22:14

Brussels controls 100% of our trade

but we have zero input... You think

0:22:160:22:17

that gives us more influence in

world trade than taking our own

0:22:170:22:20

voice and vote in the world trade

organisation and be able to do our

0:22:200:22:23

own deals, is that what you are

saying?

When you talk about the WTO

0:22:230:22:27

rules, if you look at the

government's analysis which was an

0:22:270:22:30

average of other studies, it shows

even in the South East if there is a

0:22:300:22:35

withdrawal based on...

I'm going to

have one more go to get an answer

0:22:350:22:38

because you are telling me lots of

interesting things which are nothing

0:22:380:22:40

to do with what I'm asking. Let me

have another go... The highest

0:22:400:22:45

tariffs imposed by the customs union

are on the items that most

0:22:450:22:52

negatively impact people on low

incomes, particularly food,

0:22:520:22:56

clothing, and footwear. They pay a

proportionately higher chunk of

0:22:560:23:00

their weekly Budget on these

commodities, these basic things.

0:23:000:23:02

They are the most badly hit. We are

clobbering poor people in this

0:23:020:23:06

country in order to hurt developing

nations. How can you come as a

0:23:060:23:10

progressive politician with a proud

history of standing up for people

0:23:100:23:14

who are underprivileged, now stand

there and defend a system that

0:23:140:23:18

forces us to give more to wealthy

French farmers than poor African

0:23:180:23:23

farmers, and forces the highest

bills to be paid by the lowest

0:23:230:23:25

income people in Britain?

I will

fundamentally disagree with you. I

0:23:250:23:29

believe being a member of the EU has

been fundamental for our prosperity,

0:23:290:23:34

for families and businesses. What

you fail to highlight is numerous

0:23:340:23:39

studies that show many British

families are worse off as a result

0:23:390:23:44

of us having had the referendum and

now the uncertainty that is

0:23:440:23:48

followed. People have already

suffered. -- that has followed.

You

0:23:480:23:56

are still not answering. Let me have

another crack at this. The countries

0:23:560:24:01

closest to the EU economically. The

countries that have opted to

0:24:010:24:05

parallel or join the single market

Norway, Switzerland, Iceland,

0:24:050:24:09

Liechtenstein, none of them is

interested in joining the customs

0:24:090:24:13

union. Why do you think that is?

They have separate arrangements.

0:24:130:24:18

They have arrangements with each

other. They have ways of resolving

0:24:180:24:21

disputes. It is like a mini European

Union in the way that they work

0:24:210:24:25

together. I believe that we could

consider approaching those countries

0:24:250:24:31

to see whether that would be an

arrangement that could work for

0:24:310:24:33

Britain.

That would mean leaving the

customs union, right?

Potentially

0:24:330:24:39

alongside how we negotiate being in

the customs union. Fundamental for

0:24:390:24:43

peace in Northern Ireland and the

Good Friday Agreement. It's not just

0:24:430:24:46

me saying that, it's the Irish

government, the head of the Irish

0:24:460:24:50

police, and the Irish people.

Time

is up. Thank you for your questions.

0:24:500:24:55

What you are advocating is not

Labour policy. Do you believe you

0:24:550:24:59

will change the mind of Jeremy

Corbyn?

You know there is a debate

0:24:590:25:04

going on in the Labour Party. That

is not unexpected, because as the

0:25:040:25:11

situation changes, as new facts come

to light, as we have to consider

0:25:110:25:15

what life will be like with the end

state post the transition, we will

0:25:150:25:19

have that debate. It is certainly

the case that the range of views

0:25:190:25:23

across the Labour Party are far less

in terms of the spectrum of what's

0:25:230:25:26

going on in the Conservative Party.

The fundamental issue is we have a

0:25:260:25:31

Prime Minister and cabinet that have

no idea about end state. They have

0:25:310:25:35

failed to reach any sort of

agreement after two days away this

0:25:350:25:39

week. And I think it is embarrassing

for us as a nation that 19 months

0:25:390:25:45

after the referendum we are in such

disarray.

Thank you both very much

0:25:450:25:49

for coming in and asking the

questions.

0:25:490:25:51

And those of you in the South

of England will be lucky

0:25:510:25:54

enough to see more of Dan Hannan

as he'll be appearing

0:25:540:25:57

in the Sunday Politics South

in just over ten minutes.

0:25:570:25:59

And you can find

more Brexit analysis

0:25:590:26:00

and explanation on the BBC website,

at bbc.co.uk/Brexit.

0:26:000:26:02

The recent collapse

of Carillion and the ending

0:26:020:26:05

of the East Coast Rail franchise

early has emboldened the

0:26:050:26:07

Labour Party to push its agenda

for renationalising key services

0:26:070:26:09

such as rail, water and energy.

0:26:090:26:11

But that's not all, the party

is looking into supporting local

0:26:110:26:14

economies by helping councils do

things like bringing

0:26:140:26:15

more services in house,

using local small businesses

0:26:150:26:18

where possible and helping to set up

new small scale energy companies.

0:26:180:26:23

So, is the plan workable,

and can it help Labour shed

0:26:240:26:27

the image that more state control

will lead to inefficiency and a lack

0:26:270:26:30

of innovation and investment?

0:26:300:26:31

Elizabeth Glinka has

travelled to Preston,

0:26:310:26:32

a Labour council the party

are championing as a model

0:26:320:26:35

for the future, to find out more.

0:26:350:26:40

When he visited in the 1850s car

Marks said industrial Preston might

0:26:490:26:54

be the staging post for an economic

revolution. It's taken 160 years but

0:26:540:26:58

he may have been onto. -- Karl Marx

said.

Preston described in the press

0:26:580:27:06

as a pilgrimage for London folk.

LAUGHTER

0:27:060:27:12

The Shadow Chancellor just dropping

in this week to heap praise on

0:27:120:27:16

Preston's new locally focused

economic plan. Nowhere is that plan

0:27:160:27:22

more visible than at the city's

trendy undercover market. Traders

0:27:220:27:27

rush to finish their new stalls

ahead of next week's reopening. The

0:27:270:27:32

so-called Preston model borrows

heavily from similar schemes in the

0:27:320:27:36

American rust belt. It installs the

virtues of keeping more services

0:27:360:27:41

in-house using worker let

cooperatives. And when it comes to

0:27:410:27:45

big contracts like the redevelopment

of this beautiful Victorian market,

0:27:450:27:50

they go not to the overextended big

boys like a religion but to smaller,

0:27:500:27:54

local firms, keeping the money in

the area. -- like Carillion but to

0:27:540:28:03

smaller, local firms. Matt Brown, a

local boy motivated by what he saw

0:28:030:28:07

as the continued decline of a once

great city, is behind this.

We came

0:28:070:28:12

to the conclusion that a fightback

we've got to do it ourselves. We

0:28:120:28:16

cannot be dependent on central

government that is cutting back on

0:28:160:28:19

money. The public sector is pretty

much buying locally from local

0:28:190:28:24

suppliers. We are looking to form

cooperatives. We're selling our own

0:28:240:28:28

energy in partnership with other

councils. Pensions are invested

0:28:280:28:32

locally. These alternatives around

the world. In American cities like

0:28:320:28:37

York, Cleveland, and Barcelona,

people are waking up to the fact

0:28:370:28:40

that we have an economy that works

for the top 1%. -- like New York and

0:28:400:28:45

Cleveland. And the rest of us are

basically fighting for the scraps.

0:28:450:28:50

Under the model the council has

spent an additional £4 million

0:28:500:28:54

locally since 2012. It has also

persuaded universities and hospitals

0:28:540:29:00

to redirect their spending towards

local suppliers. And it isn't just

0:29:000:29:04

Preston, a number of other Labour

authorities are trying something

0:29:040:29:06

new.

We have local councils now that

have set up energy companies to

0:29:060:29:12

provide cheaper, renewable energy

foot we have others running bus

0:29:120:29:17

networks. -- cheaper, renewable

energy and we have others running

0:29:170:29:24

bus networks. It is a way of getting

best value for money as well as

0:29:240:29:27

Democratic controlled of services.

Your critics might say this is

0:29:270:29:33

cuddly, cooperative windowdressing

for an agenda which, long-term, is

0:29:330:29:38

about mass renationalisation, which

you think the public would not be

0:29:380:29:41

keen on.

CHUCKLES

0:29:410:29:43

How sceptical people can be. I am a

socialist. We should share our

0:29:430:29:48

wealth. We have councillors going

out to get elected. When they get

0:29:480:29:52

elected they say they will use our

council resources locally and in

0:29:520:29:55

that way we can benefit local

people.

Is it back to the future? It

0:29:550:30:01

was revealed this week the

government may be on the brink of

0:30:010:30:04

renationalising the East Coast

mainline. Labour's frontbencher has

0:30:040:30:08

been clear about its aspiration to

renationalise not just a rail but

0:30:080:30:12

energy, the Post Office, and even

water. This weekend the party held a

0:30:120:30:17

conference to discuss the expansion

of the Preston model, but others

0:30:170:30:21

remain less convinced by its wisdom.

This idea is very popular nowadays,

0:30:210:30:26

both on the political right, people

like Trump promoting it, and on the

0:30:260:30:30

political left. But it is a failure

to understand the benefits of trade.

0:30:300:30:35

The idea you can enrich yourself

with the border. I draw a line

0:30:350:30:41

around an area. And somehow that

will make us better off is magical

0:30:410:30:45

thinking. How you become better off

is through becoming more productive.

0:30:450:30:49

These ideas are tricks for becoming

richer that involve boundaries. It

0:30:490:30:55

is an abiding fantasy, but it is a

fantasy.

The doubters may doubt, but

0:30:550:31:00

in a post-Carillion world labour is

convinced public opinion is pulling

0:31:000:31:04

in its direction.

0:31:040:31:07

Well, to help me to understand

more about Labour's

0:31:070:31:09

plans I'm joined by Labour's Shadow

Transport Secretary Andy McDonald

0:31:090:31:12

who's in Newcastle.

0:31:120:31:16

Good morning, thank you for joining

us.

John McDonnell says the plans to

0:31:160:31:25

re-nationalise energy, water and

rail would cost absolutely nothing.

0:31:250:31:27

That sounds too good to be true.

Explain how it could work?

In terms

0:31:270:31:34

of the rail Wales, it would bring

the railways back into public

0:31:340:31:38

ownership at no cost at all. -- in

terms of the railways. We would

0:31:380:31:44

bring them back once the franchises

expire. That would be considerable

0:31:440:31:51

savings of £1 billion per annum.

Then you will have to find £70

0:31:510:31:55

billion for the water industry,

nearly 40 billion for the National

0:31:550:31:59

Grid, how can that cost nothing?

Because you would be acquiring an

0:31:590:32:07

asset, you would be acquiring an

asset, you would be paying back the

0:32:070:32:13

revenues which you derive over the

businesses over time and you would

0:32:130:32:17

keep the costs down for the

consumer.

So you would be adding to

0:32:170:32:21

the national debt and you would have

to pay interest on that debt which

0:32:210:32:25

you would do out of the revenue you

get from the companies, but you also

0:32:250:32:30

say it will cost less from the

consumers that bills would come

0:32:300:32:33

down.

If you have £30.5 billion of

dividends paid out, if you run

0:32:330:32:41

things on a not-for-profit basis, it

can ensure that customers can get

0:32:410:32:46

the best possible returns.

That

profit might be good for customers

0:32:460:32:49

but it does not sound good for

paying back the interest on the

0:32:490:32:53

loans that you took out for buying

the organisations in the first

0:32:530:32:57

place?

You heard John McDonnell

express the analogy of having a

0:32:570:33:02

mortgage over a property. You have

acquired the assets, you have the

0:33:020:33:06

income derived from renting it out,

it pays the gas it and you have

0:33:060:33:10

still got it. It makes consulate

sent to hold those acids and make

0:33:100:33:14

them work for the benefit of the

citizens.

If interest rates rise,

0:33:140:33:20

after you bought that house and you

are renting it out, it is important

0:33:200:33:25

that costs can derive from the

rental income. We know that rates

0:33:250:33:31

can rise. There is every possibility

that the interest you will be paying

0:33:310:33:35

will not cover the profits and cost?

It is no different to the position

0:33:350:33:40

now. If water companies and energy

companies are financed, they have

0:33:400:33:46

those structures in place, the rate

of interest that they pay on their

0:33:460:33:51

financing is passed through to the

consumer ultimately.

I tell you how

0:33:510:33:56

it is different now, and your system

it would be passed to the taxpayer

0:33:560:34:01

presumably. If any of these

industries started making a loss,

0:34:010:34:05

who picks up the tab for that?

Have

they made a loss since they were

0:34:050:34:11

privatised? They have not, they have

made very great profits.

The reason

0:34:110:34:16

they are giving up the east Coast

franchise is because they have lost

0:34:160:34:23

£200 million.

That shows how the

franchising system is completely and

0:34:230:34:26

utterly flawed and should be

abandoned.

If the government run

0:34:260:34:32

East Coast Mainline lost £2 billion,

who would be on the hook, the

0:34:320:34:37

taxpayer?

When the government last

ran East Coast Mainline they ran it

0:34:370:34:42

at a profit, it brought money into

the Treasury. We have a good history

0:34:420:34:46

of running the railways correctly

and not having this bailout to

0:34:460:34:50

Richard Branson and Brian Souter and

the rest of them or seeing the

0:34:500:34:54

dividends and profits overseas to

the state-owned companies of

0:34:540:35:01

continental Europe. We want to put

an end to that and make sure we run

0:35:010:35:05

our railways for the benefits of the

public.

Let's look at one company,

0:35:050:35:11

Bristol energy which looks like the

kind of company you are advocating.

0:35:110:35:15

It is set up locally and has ethical

behaviour. There are no shareholders

0:35:150:35:21

so nobody is taking a profit out of

it. It has lost 2 million over two

0:35:210:35:25

years and does not expect to be

profitable until 2021. But does not

0:35:250:35:30

sound like a great deal for the

taxpayer if that is how you're going

0:35:300:35:37

to run the National Grid.

If they

are recouping the losses and they

0:35:370:35:40

have the trajectory of growth and

greater incomes, they will look at

0:35:400:35:43

that and say to successful.

The

Labour government...

They got tax

0:35:430:35:51

breaks, public capital to set them

up in the first instance, they were

0:35:510:35:55

heavily subsidised so they could go

on and enjoy the benefits of private

0:35:550:36:00

enterprise that does not benefit the

consumer or the taxpayer or the

0:36:000:36:04

citizens, however you wish to

describe it.

The consumer and the

0:36:040:36:09

taxpayer may be the same person but

they have a different financial

0:36:090:36:14

relationship with these companies.

What comes first, using any profit

0:36:140:36:19

or revenue you have used to acquire

these assets or cutting bills?

You

0:36:190:36:23

do both. If you have got that income

you can use it for those purposes.

0:36:230:36:29

Do cut energy bills or do you repay

the debt?

Those who have benefited

0:36:290:36:35

from privatisation of had the

benefit of not only using that money

0:36:350:36:39

to pay the debt they incurred to buy

the assets, they are now using it to

0:36:390:36:42

make dividend payments out to their

shareholders. It clearly can be done

0:36:420:36:47

and we want to be in that position

so it works for the benefit of

0:36:470:36:51

people and not for corporate

entities.

The shareholders are not

0:36:510:36:57

all millionaire individuals. A lot

of this is owned by pension funds to

0:36:570:37:00

which many workers pensions are

held, can you guarantee that you

0:37:000:37:05

will reinforce the Leave reimburse

them at full market value so that

0:37:050:37:13

nobody's pension will lose out?

The

market value is the market value at

0:37:130:37:18

the time these assets are required.

John McDonnell has made it clear

0:37:180:37:23

that they will be acquired at that

rate.

But not for cash, in exchange

0:37:230:37:30

for government bonds?

They are still

in that strong position of having

0:37:300:37:33

the value fully reflected. What is

happening is that not everybody is a

0:37:330:37:38

shareholder. It means there is

greater equity for all of the

0:37:380:37:43

population, not only an narrow

segment of it, surely that has got

0:37:430:37:46

to be for the benefit of everybody.

Thank you for talking to us.

0:37:460:37:52

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:37:520:37:54

Still to come:

0:37:540:37:55

We'll look at the implications

to the charity sector of the latest

0:37:550:37:58

allegations of sexual abuse

involving Oxfam staff

0:37:580:38:00

and the government's

promise to get tough.

0:38:000:38:00

Welcome to Sunday Politics Wales. In

a few moments, is the party over for

0:38:140:38:20

Ukip? Or will next week was that

meeting marked a new beginning.

0:38:200:38:24

Their leader in Wales, Neil

Hamilton, will be here live. But

0:38:240:38:29

first, one of Wales's top criminal

barristers says the criminal justice

0:38:290:38:33

system has hit a crisis point.

Andrew Taylor says problems over

0:38:330:38:37

disclosure of evidence and a major

forensic provider going to the wall

0:38:370:38:40

has caused a crisis of confidence.

He wants this -- warned this may

0:38:400:38:46

lead to guilty people going free and

innocent people being locked up.

0:38:460:38:52

The criminal justice system is a

complex machine. As many parts

0:38:520:38:55

working together to uphold the rule

of law, making sure the guilty end

0:38:550:39:00

up behind bars of the innocent go

free. But it is a system that is in

0:39:000:39:03

crisis. So says Andrew Taylor. He

spent decades as a barrister, acting

0:39:030:39:13

as defence and many high-profile

cases from sexual offences to

0:39:130:39:15

murder.

When I was qualifying as a barrister

0:39:150:39:17

many years ago, a very famous judge

said there was not a better country

0:39:170:39:22

in the world in which to be

arrested. In other words, we should

0:39:220:39:27

have confidence in the police, the

judges, the courts and the criminal

0:39:270:39:30

justice system. I think that was

well founded.

0:39:300:39:34

But I think, if you was around

today, he would have second

0:39:340:39:38

thoughts. And his main concern is

disclosure. The duty on police and

0:39:380:39:43

prosecutors to disclose evidence to

defence lawyers. Liam Allen had the

0:39:430:39:46

case against him dropped police

failed to disclose key evidence in

0:39:460:39:48

his rape trial.

I have come across on occasions to

0:39:480:39:54

numerous for me to specify what we

have been writing to the police and

0:39:540:39:59

the CPS, time after time, saying my

client says that you will find

0:39:590:40:03

evidence on a phone, you will find

evidence on social media. Very

0:40:030:40:06

often, we're told, well, we've

looked and we can't find it. Do you

0:40:060:40:12

really expect us to go trawling

through 4000 text messages or 400

0:40:120:40:17

hours of CCTV?

Now the woman in charge has ordered

0:40:170:40:24

an urgent review of all rape and

serious assault cases in Wales and

0:40:240:40:26

England.

It is a crisis for all sorts of

0:40:260:40:30

reasons and judges are warning now,

if we don't do something about it,

0:40:300:40:35

juries may very well decide, we

can't really convicted this person

0:40:350:40:38

because we can't be sure that the

police have done their job properly

0:40:380:40:42

and every piece of evidence has

properly been reviewed.

0:40:420:40:44

Just over a week ago one of the

largest private forensic providers

0:40:440:40:52

went bust. It oversaw 2000 cases of

30 forces including rape, murder and

0:40:520:40:57

serious drug crime. It covered

everything from DNA to drug testing.

0:40:570:41:01

Andrew Taylor said, the fallout

could not be more serious. Those

0:41:010:41:05

cases are going to be delayed. It

may well be that she exhibits are

0:41:050:41:07

lost or destroyed. It will delay

justice and still nine justice for

0:41:070:41:15

many people.

The former Labour crime and police

0:41:150:41:17

Minister now wants answers from

ministers.

We don't know what is

0:41:170:41:20

going to happen to the work they do.

That is about DNA, it's about

0:41:200:41:25

evidence, it's about murders

committed about domestic violence,

0:41:250:41:27

it's about burglary evidence.

We don't know what's happening to

0:41:270:41:31

that. The Home Office is to

supporting and working closely with

0:41:310:41:34

police to accept into temporarily

banned the forensic work and protect

0:41:340:41:38

live cases.

But there was something else that is

0:41:380:41:40

worrying barristers. With Government

cuts to both the police, the CPS, to

0:41:400:41:46

legal aid and to general funding

across the board in terms of

0:41:460:41:49

probation, and outside agencies and

feed into the system, the system is

0:41:490:41:56

not so much creaking, I think, as

almost coming to the point where we

0:41:560:42:01

can't cope any more.

This very issue made top billing at

0:42:010:42:04

Prime Minister's Questions this

week.

During the period the Prime

0:42:040:42:11

Minister was Home Secretary 2.3

billion was cut from police budgets.

0:42:110:42:17

These spectra of Constabulary warns

neighbourhood policing risks being

0:42:170:42:19

eroded and the shortage of

detectives is at a national crisis.

0:42:190:42:25

Does the Prime Minister think the

Inspectorate are scaremongering?

0:42:250:42:28

This is a Government that is

protecting police budgets. I would

0:42:280:42:31

like to remind the Right Honourable

gentleman that the Labour Party's

0:42:310:42:34

former Shadow Home Secretary, now

the police and crime commission of

0:42:340:42:40

Greater Manchester, himself said

that the police could take up to 10%

0:42:400:42:44

cut in their budgets.

Whilst attempted child, MP Mr Davies

0:42:440:42:50

is a former police officer.

Small money is not the answer. I

0:42:500:42:55

don't think it is at crisis point at

all. Criminal Justice is growing

0:42:550:42:57

through system, is going through a

period now some difficulty. And I

0:42:570:43:03

think that is more down to the

organisations that work within it as

0:43:030:43:06

opposed to any sort of funding issue

that people like to think or alleges

0:43:060:43:13

happening.

So it is not down to funding cuts?

0:43:130:43:16

No, I don't get is down to funding

cuts. I think some of the issues

0:43:160:43:19

that we have these days with

disclosure, and we've seen it in

0:43:190:43:24

some of the rape cases, that is more

a training issue.

0:43:240:43:29

You will find perhaps in the

long-term the conviction rate

0:43:290:43:32

dropping, less being charged, and a

dual crisis of innocent people going

0:43:320:43:39

to prison while guilty walk away.

And many more across the system are

0:43:390:43:42

warning that if the Government

doesn't action now, the cogs may

0:43:420:43:44

stop turning.

We've all heard the argument that

0:43:440:43:50

Wales could make more of her natural

resources in terms of generating

0:43:500:43:55

energy. In a lecture this week

Professor Calvin Jones from Calvin

0:43:550:44:00

University will be talking about

what options are practical and

0:44:000:44:03

beneficial to local people. When I

met him I asked whether capitalising

0:44:030:44:05

on these resources with a view to

making a profit on the energy they

0:44:050:44:08

create, was possible.

It is very difficult to imagine a

0:44:080:44:14

situation where you had a very large

Welsh owned company, muscling have a

0:44:140:44:24

presence in keeping some of that

money locally. In the fashion that

0:44:240:44:26

we did years ago. So, you know, yes,

it is feasible that we did have a

0:44:260:44:33

publicly owned nuclear power

station. There was not enough money

0:44:330:44:38

in Wales to make that happen so, you

know, we will probably be stuck for

0:44:380:44:42

something which, even if it is not

private, will be guaranteed at UK

0:44:420:44:46

level. In many of the best sites

have already been snapped up by

0:44:460:44:55

internationally owned firms. That is

not much left, really, for the

0:44:550:44:57

public to get involved in for Welsh

companies to get involved.

0:44:570:45:02

What would your message be to

politicians who say we need more

0:45:020:45:07

tidal lagoons, even. Need to be

generating the energy. As we could

0:45:070:45:11

be, you know, we could be making the

most of that.

0:45:110:45:15

What would your message be? You need

to think very carefully about what

0:45:150:45:19

sorts of benefits you expect from

the those so, yes, when you have

0:45:190:45:22

big, new capital investments such as

the lagoon or such, get lots of jobs

0:45:220:45:29

while it is being built. Then, once

it's built, they will be a few

0:45:290:45:37

hundred jobs, maybe. The nuclear

power station will have a few

0:45:370:45:39

hundred jobs in it. The lagoon have

a few dozen jobs looking after it,

0:45:390:45:42

probably. So, all right, a few

hundred jobs is important. Our

0:45:420:45:51

research recently suggested that

their appropriate moves a couple of

0:45:510:45:53

thousand people working in it across

Wales. Got a workforce of something

0:45:530:46:00

around 1 million people is a couple

of thousand is nothing. See would

0:46:000:46:03

get the employment benefits in the

long term that you might hope for.

0:46:030:46:06

Some sectors, lagoon is one, give

you the possibility of innovation

0:46:060:46:12

and are indeed benefits which we

might be at able to catch in Wales.

0:46:120:46:17

Different from nuclear where all the

Air India and all the IP is held

0:46:170:46:23

outside the UK let alone Wales. So

for lagoon you can imagine, tied

0:46:230:46:27

lagoon could be persuaded to let an

equity to the Welsh Government in

0:46:270:46:32

return for some sort of financial

assistance. In holding company, not

0:46:320:46:35

this one. So if it was part owned by

the Welsh Government or some other

0:46:350:46:41

Welsh entity then you could see the

possibility, of being a part of the

0:46:410:46:49

cluster. The Iraqi number of

opportunities that I think. But

0:46:490:46:55

think ownership is key. Only some of

this stuff and this capital is the

0:46:550:47:02

first stage to exploiting those

benefits.

0:47:020:47:08

One of the other point I been

reading of the last few days is Uber

0:47:080:47:14

talking about since devolution, on

the UK level, things have not

0:47:140:47:24

differently.

0:47:240:47:34

It is not necessarily by design. But

I think a few things have coalesced

0:47:350:47:40

and in Cardiff, as it was already,

it was the most important city in

0:47:400:47:45

Wales. And when you take a new

institution which, because of the

0:47:450:47:51

way the initial devolution act, had

to take responsibility effectively

0:47:510:47:57

from below. The UK Government did

not give the Welsh Assembly

0:47:570:48:01

Government much at the start under

Assembly much to do. It became like

0:48:010:48:03

a big local authority. So a decision

floating at Cardiff and other

0:48:030:48:09

places. If you combine that, with

the devolution settlement, which is

0:48:090:48:14

changing slowly, with a political

context which is very insecure,

0:48:140:48:23

which may be doesn't want power to

go beyond Cardiff Bay once it comes

0:48:230:48:27

down from Westminster or comes up.

When you get a situation where, you

0:48:270:48:29

can have a strong political call to

Wales, and there was debate over

0:48:290:48:37

where the Assembly should go and we

did some work on this in the late

0:48:370:48:40

90s about where we would put an

Assembly in Cardiff. On top of that

0:48:400:48:43

what you get is, I mean, I remember

a similar discussion about where the

0:48:430:48:48

new millennium Stadium should go.

There are several options we were

0:48:480:48:51

looking at. But it ended up in

Cardiff. And when you lay on top of

0:48:510:48:54

that a new, obviously museums and

galleries, the site in Cardiff,

0:48:540:49:05

organisations moving from North

Cardiff, the periphery of Wales,

0:49:050:49:07

North Cardiff, down to the centre of

Wales in the centre of the square,

0:49:070:49:12

and you lay top public investment on

top of the strong economic

0:49:120:49:19

infrastructure in the city, they

tend to be in Cardiff. So you lay

0:49:190:49:29

those things on top of what you have

is, in where's me think of Wales as

0:49:290:49:35

the country, it looks more like the

UK than it does somewhere like

0:49:350:49:40

Switzerland, which are separate

financial and economic and political

0:49:400:49:45

centres. Germany which is very

strong Southern economic heart of

0:49:450:49:47

Berlin and bond, the capital cities

of recent times in the North. The

0:49:470:49:52

US, game, Washington, New York, Los

Angeles. We look like Paris and

0:49:520:49:57

France the UK. That is the point.

What does that do? You think, in

0:49:570:50:04

Wales, does seem strange that to the

North there is not a single national

0:50:040:50:08

institution. Nothing north of the

National library.

0:50:080:50:18

Maybe the football Museum. We might

get.

But what does that do, do you

0:50:180:50:26

think? The idea people, people in

the North, who think, as you've been

0:50:260:50:29

saying, it all goes down to goes

down to the south.

0:50:290:50:32

I have lots of arguments about this

because there is a point of view

0:50:320:50:36

that says that, Wales are so small

that you have to put all your eggs

0:50:360:50:40

in the Cardiff basket because that

is the only way we can get

0:50:400:50:42

visibility and get noticed. And then

there is a kind of trend of thought

0:50:420:50:48

that says that actually, spreading

national institutions, spreading

0:50:480:50:53

activity will generally around Wales

is more important. Those things are

0:50:530:50:55

very different to reconcile. It

comes down to a value judgment on

0:50:550:51:00

what I think it comes down to is

whether you think it matters if

0:51:000:51:03

Wales gets noticed or not. That is a

very subtle thing because it doesn't

0:51:030:51:11

matter if the London media talk

about Wales? Doesn't matter if big

0:51:110:51:16

factories, big investors around the

world look around and don't notice

0:51:160:51:18

doesn't matter if we're on various

other world stages? My attitude has

0:51:180:51:23

always been, if we get, domestic

stuff right, from run the country

0:51:230:51:25

properly, if we develop a

functioning set of Welsh identities

0:51:250:51:31

which we can genuinely sign up to in

terms of... Because the Welsh are

0:51:310:51:35

all different we can all do with the

Scots seem to do. If you make that

0:51:350:51:43

work can become confident and that

would get noticed for own merits

0:51:430:51:45

rather than trying to get noticed

because of the flashes of our

0:51:450:51:51

buildings, which are victimising

Cardiff, when you look at it now

0:51:510:51:53

underway Cardiff has developed, it

has become a very generic property

0:51:530:51:59

led development story. There's not

much in Cardiff now that looks

0:51:590:52:02

distinctive of different in terms of

other cities in the UK. And those

0:52:020:52:06

divisions, there has been debate

obviously in the region and how that

0:52:060:52:11

should work, it comes down to a

value judgment. Economic theory,

0:52:110:52:16

economic evidence won't really tell

you which one works. Because

0:52:160:52:19

countries are all different and you

have two decide which one of those

0:52:190:52:23

divisions you feel more akin to.

Plenty to think about two with

0:52:230:52:27

Professor Alvin Jones from Cardiff

University. You give us had a torrid

0:52:270:52:30

time of it recently both that a UK

wide level and perhaps here in

0:52:300:52:33

Wales, too. The British party will

have extraordinary general meeting

0:52:330:52:38

next week to discuss the position of

the leader, Henry Bolton. He refused

0:52:380:52:41

to quit last month despite being

told to go by the party befuddling

0:52:410:52:46

committee. Will things kick off

again or will we enter a period of

0:52:460:52:53

calm? Ukip's Wales and Welsh leader

is Neil Hamilton. What we think of

0:52:530:52:58

next week in what will happen to

Henry Bolton who was on the Andrew

0:52:580:53:01

Marr and grant this morning, defied

Camille stand up to, he would try

0:53:010:53:04

and stay on as leader.

Do you think you can? It depends who

0:53:040:53:11

turns up at this extraordinary

general meeting in Birmingham. There

0:53:110:53:13

are people who live in far-flung

places you'll find it difficult to

0:53:130:53:21

get there. Almost MEP, lots of

branch chairman is, and members are

0:53:210:53:29

against him. I don't see how we can

survive and it is a great shame that

0:53:290:53:32

he is continued.

Why is him as delusional? He thinks

0:53:320:53:37

he can survive by vote of the

members but I don't think he is

0:53:370:53:41

going to be successful in that boat.

And it is most unfortunate that

0:53:410:53:47

we've had this merry-go-round farce

entirely because of his private life

0:53:470:53:54

which he continues to launder

public.

0:53:540:53:55

Other than his private life, would

you be happy with him or would you

0:53:550:54:03

be happy?

It is inconceivable. Because the

0:54:030:54:08

leader measure of followers. And

when all your elected members of

0:54:080:54:17

Aberdeen stew, see what is left to

lead.

0:54:170:54:22

He would be your sixth in a year.

Not quite.

0:54:220:54:28

If you can't Nigel Farage a couple

of times you are on five or six. It

0:54:280:54:33

seems farcical that you are going to

leader after leader after leader and

0:54:330:54:35

doing nothing else, it seems.

This is partly a function of the

0:54:350:54:40

fact that Nigel Farage was a super

dominant leader himself and didn't

0:54:400:54:42

bring on any potential alternatives.

Of another party gone through

0:54:420:54:47

similar structures. Look at the

Tories over the last 20 years. They

0:54:470:54:49

had leader after leader in the early

part of the century.

0:54:490:54:55

Not quite at this rate.

Nevertheless, the point is the same.

0:54:550:54:57

I think that, after next Saturday,

would have somebody like Gerard

0:54:570:55:01

Batten who is the MEP for London and

has been there since 2004, has been

0:55:010:55:09

the Ukip party member since the

party was founded.

0:55:090:55:11

We need a team leader now. It is not

just the leadership, to the point of

0:55:110:55:16

Ukip. Now that you've got Brexit,

peoples into question why is there

0:55:160:55:18

need for Ukip and that's why we're

seeing this turn of leadership,

0:55:180:55:23

because the bizarre to it?

It is certainly true that lobby

0:55:230:55:26

blood left Ukip thinking the job was

done after the referendum. I think

0:55:260:55:29

that is a mistake, as you know, in

elections in Wales in the general

0:55:290:55:32

election we still have a full

programme of domestic policies as

0:55:320:55:38

well. We are very different from all

the other parties and keeping within

0:55:380:55:41

the party will provide the cosy

Cardiff Bay consensus. The only

0:55:410:55:44

party who will oppose expansion of

the Assembly, want tough controls of

0:55:440:55:52

immigration, who once significant

cuts to the aid Budget, he wants to

0:55:520:55:57

democratise the health service, the

only party in Wales who believes in

0:55:570:56:00

grammar schools. There are lots of

things that you could stand for

0:56:000:56:02

quite apart from Brexit.

At the Assembly election you got 13%

0:56:020:56:06

of the vote. Last year were down to

2% of the vote in Wales a law

0:56:060:56:12

student bossing everyone of the 32

constituencies where you stood. You

0:56:120:56:17

may well list the things you want to

achieve the people maybe aren't

0:56:170:56:22

listening.

That is certainly true. We found it

0:56:220:56:24

difficult against all the baffling

noise in the background from Ukip

0:56:240:56:29

central to get our message across.

But I think, with some effective

0:56:290:56:32

leadership, we can show, and at the

Wales is going to be the shop window

0:56:320:56:38

after the MEPs disappear next year,

because the Cardiff Assembly is the

0:56:380:56:42

only parliamentary institution which

you'll then be represented. I think

0:56:420:56:45

we showed, day in and day out in the

Assembly, how effective we can be as

0:56:450:56:48

a professional group.

That is the message read more

0:56:480:56:51

generally. What kind of a I shown to

the rest of Ukip? One member walked

0:56:510:56:57

with the coach were relevant, and

others not joining the group, Gareth

0:56:570:57:03

Bennett been banned from speaking

for a while because of some of the

0:57:030:57:05

comments he made.

As a shop window, it is not ideal,

0:57:050:57:10

is it? I don't agree with you about

that. Nathan Gill took his bat

0:57:100:57:14

because was frustrated ambition for

the want of my job as the leader, my

0:57:140:57:19

colleagues voted for me instead.

You couldn't keep within the fold,

0:57:190:57:21

could you? He resigned. I didn't

force. He chose to become an

0:57:210:57:28

independent of the remaining eight

Ukip member. Mark success obviously

0:57:280:57:31

saw his future more the Conservative

Party. The Tories don't want him.

0:57:310:57:34

They won't allow them to join the

party somebody was going to say the

0:57:340:57:41

-- save his skin that way but he's

been sapping mistaken.

0:57:410:57:43

I don't know whether Mark reckless

would have taken the decision that

0:57:430:57:46

he did if he had realised the

Conservative Party would not allow

0:57:460:57:50

him to join. He naturally assumed

that he would be able to be a

0:57:500:57:53

Conservative candidate.

The point I'm trying to make is, you

0:57:530:57:58

are saying the party in the Assembly

in Wales would be a shop window and

0:57:580:58:01

the point I'm making is, other than

petty squabbling, comments which are

0:58:010:58:05

deemed to be, you know, not what

should be set in the Assembly,

0:58:050:58:11

there's not much to be said about

what Ukip has achieved.

0:58:110:58:15

I don't agree at all about Gareth

Bennett and what Gareth Bennett said

0:58:150:58:18

in the Assembly struck a chord I

think that many people in the wider

0:58:180:58:21

community.

That maybe but it shows that Ukip is

0:58:210:58:25

breaking the Cardiff Bay consensus.

And we will go on breaking that

0:58:250:58:30

consensus as well.

Showing that we're the only party

0:58:300:58:33

that poses political correctness in

all its forms. We heard Henry Bolton

0:58:330:58:36

this morning saying that Ukip, over

the past year, has lost hundreds of

0:58:360:58:40

members every month on a UK level.

Is that something you are seeing in

0:58:400:58:44

Wales as well? It isn't, actually.

Wellesley fight in a domestic

0:58:440:58:49

political conflict. He was appointed

as well because we are in the

0:58:490:58:53

Assembly on a feed every civil day,

articulating the feelings and views

0:58:530:58:57

of people who are not represented by

the other parties. So this is what I

0:58:570:59:01

mean by saying that Ukip will be the

shop window in Wales which looks out

0:59:010:59:04

from the rest of the United Kingdom.

It is very concerned, maybe, that

0:59:040:59:08

the main opportunity for Ukip now

will come from a failure of Brexit?

0:59:080:59:12

One thing you don't really want to

see is a failure of Brexit.

0:59:120:59:16

I certainly don't want to see a

failure of Brexit. But isn't that

0:59:160:59:19

the main way back for Ukip on the UK

level.

0:59:190:59:25

I think there was a campaign for a

second referendum it would lead to

0:59:250:59:28

an immediate change. Of course there

will be lots of details on the we

0:59:280:59:32

would be very keen to ensure is not

going to, by the back door, bring us

0:59:320:59:39

Brussels back in the game. Weird to

see the future for Ukip in a

0:59:390:59:43

domestic United Kingdom and the

Welsh context and I believe that

0:59:430:59:45

there a real scope for Ukip because

we are the only party.

0:59:450:59:49

When you look Brexit only see things

like the Treasury forecast saying

0:59:490:59:56

that a hard Brexit could bring Wales

9.5% worse off than it would

0:59:560:59:59

otherwise have been, doesn't worry

you at all about what might be

0:59:591:00:04

happening?

The Treasury is a haunt of

1:00:041:00:05

remainders. There has been

manoeuvres against the Prime

1:00:051:00:07

Minister.

You talk about Ukip been divided,

1:00:071:00:12

look at the Cabinet and they are

squabbling like rats in a sack. On

1:00:121:00:17

something which really matters, the

future of Britain as an independent

1:00:171:00:20

nation. We don't have those couples

inside Ukip on matters of policy.

1:00:201:00:23

All of our problems ultimately go

back to personalities.

1:00:231:00:29

But on the policy issues we are

absolutely united on the need for an

1:00:291:00:33

independent Britain.

Very quickly

then, you'd think after Saturday

1:00:331:00:35

will be there, you'll be voting for

Bolton to be out.

1:00:351:00:40

I will be voting against Henry

Bolton and so will my colleagues.

1:00:401:00:42

Thank you very much for coming in.

We will see how that goes. That is

1:00:421:00:46

it from us. We will take a short

break next week but we are back in a

1:00:461:00:52

fortnight. Wales lives will be here

Wednesday at 10:30pm and you can

1:00:521:00:56

always follow us on Twitter. For

now, that is all from

1:00:561:01:01

always follow us on Twitter. For

now, that is all from me.

1:01:011:01:04

university.

1:01:041:01:05

I said how old is your son?

1:01:051:01:07

She said he hasn't been born yet.

1:01:071:01:08

On that note, that's

all we have time for.

1:01:081:01:10

Thank you very much and thanks

to all of my guests.

1:01:101:01:13

Welcome back. A few minutes ago we

were talking about plans for

1:01:171:01:24

renationalisation, something which

they think is a good vote winning

1:01:241:01:30

policy in these times. Are they

right?

Nationalisation had a boom in

1:01:301:01:37

popularity. It never went out of

favour. Since the bailouts of rail

1:01:371:01:41

companies, since the appalling

things which happen to people who

1:01:411:01:44

have to get a train every day, never

mind just the south-east, it has

1:01:441:01:54

been a nightmare and costs are

ratcheting up. Even the water

1:01:541:02:02

companies are not opposing it. I

think they are pushing at an open

1:02:021:02:05

door and it is a worthwhile thing

for them to do.

John McDonnell says

1:02:051:02:12

it can be done at absolutely no cost

you would have an asset on your

1:02:121:02:17

government books, is that realistic?

No, that is the aspect of it. I can

1:02:171:02:26

see the political logic. That is the

aspect I find most confusing. This

1:02:261:02:33

argument that Parliament rather than

the market dictates the price at

1:02:331:02:37

which the acids is bought, the

signal is not just people who are in

1:02:371:02:41

those industries, the signal list to

all other investors in just about

1:02:411:02:46

everything else. If you start with

certain sectors, what will be

1:02:461:02:51

nationalised next? The impact that

then has on people who are investing

1:02:511:02:54

money in the UK is simply a dawning

realisation that what they have,

1:02:541:02:59

what they own, what they paid for

might be stolen or might be

1:02:591:03:04

discounted.

Labour were fairly clear

in their manifesto, they talked

1:03:041:03:08

about the National Grid, water, rail

and the Royal Mail, nothing else.

As

1:03:081:03:14

someone who has been paying

attention to what John McDonnell and

1:03:141:03:18

Seamus Milne think, I will take

their evidence of what they have

1:03:181:03:23

written and said over the last 30

years rather than what they are

1:03:231:03:26

trying to do now to win an election.

I would not try and extrapolate what

1:03:261:03:33

Labour policy would be over what she

must have said, he has only been

1:03:331:03:38

their communications guide for a few

years, before that he was a Guardian

1:03:381:03:43

columnist.

I'm judging people on

their record of what they have said

1:03:431:03:47

to Andrew Marr, what they have

written and what John McDonnell have

1:03:471:03:50

argued for. I simply question

whether we should accept their

1:03:501:03:58

guarantees when they are trying to

bargain their way into power.

1:03:581:04:03

Listen, nobody, it is something

which only happens to this lot of

1:04:031:04:07

Labour leaders, that if people

cannot critique the policy they

1:04:071:04:11

suggest, then critique what they

perceive to be the nefarious under

1:04:111:04:14

policy. The truth is, when we talk

about privatising industries we used

1:04:141:04:23

to talk about that, we never talked

about the outrageous bailouts they

1:04:231:04:27

would need, we never talked about

what they would do to actual costs,

1:04:271:04:31

we just talked about this in terms

of principle, do you want this

1:04:311:04:37

privatised with efficiency or

nationalised?

There problems with

1:04:371:04:42

some things that now Margaret

Thatcher would not say that was the

1:04:421:04:45

original intention. However, she and

those around her were completely

1:04:451:04:50

clear and explicit about that they

were prepared to privatise almost

1:04:501:04:54

everything. They were unambiguous.

The fairest possible reading of the

1:04:541:05:01

way Thatcher went about it is she

did not know how bad it would be.

1:05:011:05:05

She went into privatisation with the

explicit agenda of more British

1:05:051:05:09

people owning shares in industries

and when she went into it, 40% of

1:05:091:05:14

people own shares, 12 years later

12% did.

We will need to leave it

1:05:141:05:20

there and move on.

1:05:201:05:21

The charity Oxfam has said

it was "dismayed by what happened"

1:05:211:05:24

after the accusations of sexual

exploitation by its aid workers

1:05:241:05:26

and now the government has said

it's going to get tough.

1:05:261:05:29

I'm going to afford them the

opportunity to talk to me tomorrow,

1:05:291:05:32

but I'm broke clear, it does not

matter if you have got a

1:05:321:05:37

whistle-blower hotline, it does not

matter if you have got good

1:05:371:05:40

safeguarding practices in place, if

the moral leadership at the top of

1:05:401:05:44

the organisation is not there, then

we cannot have you as a partner.

1:05:441:05:49

That was Penny Mordaunt talking

specifically about Oxfam against

1:05:491:05:53

whom there have been allegations

this week. This could have

1:05:531:05:57

implications for the aid sector

generally?

Yes, and that is what

1:05:571:06:01

Penny Mordaunt said that donors

would be put off by the likes of

1:06:011:06:05

giving to Oxfam because they

1:06:051:06:11

giving to Oxfam because they have no

idea where their money is being used

1:06:151:06:17

at the end of it. The thought that

your good hard earned cash could be

1:06:171:06:20

subsidising Oxfam executives sexual

peccadilloes, at -- abusing the

1:06:201:06:23

people they are supposed to be

helping is not good. Penny Mordaunt

1:06:231:06:34

said we should all have done more.

Where this seems to be going as who

1:06:341:06:39

knew what? Furthermore, who was

happy to cover up what for the

1:06:391:06:44

greater good? If you shine a

spotlight on abuse will it kill off

1:06:441:06:48

the Holborn I'm concept of

international aid.

Oxfam does a lot

1:06:481:06:53

of good around the world.

Huge

amounts of good. Why would you want

1:06:531:06:57

to kill off a productive good

charity because of some horrendous

1:06:571:07:01

abuse going on? The political damage

for the government and we need to be

1:07:011:07:07

very careful, there are parallels

with for example the northern Asian

1:07:071:07:13

sexual grooming scandal. How much

was a blind eye turned to these

1:07:131:07:19

politically sensitive subject so the

greater good, for example racial

1:07:191:07:23

harmony, was not damaged? That will

be huge thing to unpick.

Tom was

1:07:231:07:29

talking about the damage of donors

who donate to charities but defeat,

1:07:291:07:35

the government, committed huge

amount of

1:07:351:07:41

amount of money -- DFID. Not

everyone is happy about this. Will

1:07:421:07:46

this be used as a debate about

international aid?

I think it is

1:07:461:07:49

being used as a way to reopen

debate. It should be remembered that

1:07:491:07:58

sexual predators use organisations.

They used boarding schools, the

1:07:581:08:00

church and aid programmes. They use

places with high vulnerability to

1:08:001:08:06

the sexual predators. Notably says

let's close down the church. It is

1:08:061:08:10

mistaken to say this is a taint on

the entire aid industry when the aid

1:08:101:08:16

industry by its nature would attract

some predatory behaviour. It is much

1:08:161:08:20

more important to have the

conversation about how

1:08:201:08:24

institutionally you prevent and deal

with the predatory behaviour rather

1:08:241:08:27

than turn a spotlight on the aid

industry than they should we have

1:08:271:08:31

any aid which is the wrong question

and has a completely obvious answer,

1:08:311:08:36

yes we should.

But if that is right,

if we extend that level of

1:08:361:08:40

understanding to Oxfam because it

does

1:08:401:08:47

does good work, why is that not

extended to the controversial

1:08:471:08:50

Presidents club a few weeks ago

which is now effectively shutdown

1:08:501:08:51

and people have given the money

back?

Iain, the Presidents club,

1:08:511:08:56

there are people in Oxfam who are

not using sex workers unlike the

1:08:561:09:00

Presidents club.

There were people

at that dinner who were not engaged

1:09:001:09:05

in the activity that the FDA accused

a few people.

But they were all

1:09:051:09:10

sitting there in an all male dinner

-- the FT accused people.

I am not

1:09:101:09:20

defending people.

We cannot finish

the programme without returning to

1:09:201:09:23

the topic we are always talking

about and we have always been

1:09:231:09:29

talking about, Brexit.

1:09:291:09:35

talking about, Brexit. We will hear

from some other Cabinet ministers.

1:09:361:09:40

Explain the choreography of the

talks.

The government have come

1:09:401:09:45

under pressure for not saying enough

about the decisions. Boris Johnson

1:09:451:09:52

made it clear he would make his own

speech on the case for a liberal

1:09:521:09:56

Brexit, whatever that ends up

meaning. Now we learn today that it

1:09:561:10:01

will not just be Boris, it will be a

whole is of other Cabinet ministers

1:10:011:10:07

making a useful contribution in

terms of speeches, David Davis,

1:10:071:10:10

David Liddington, Liam Fox and

Theresa May finally at the end of

1:10:101:10:14

this long list.

Not Philip Hammond

or any of the arch Remainers?

They

1:10:141:10:21

don't do Brexit central jobs. You

expect the Brexit ministers

1:10:211:10:25

themselves to do that.

I do not

agree with that at all.

What is

1:10:251:10:30

interesting is, were they always

going to do this or has the entirety

1:10:301:10:36

of government, now the dog is being

whacked by the tail, just to make

1:10:361:10:39

Boris Johnson... They have to give

him great cover by surrounding him

1:10:391:10:48

by others also making speeches.

What

a shocking waste of parliamentary

1:10:481:10:54

time this is?

At least we are

hearing from someone.

The pattern

1:10:541:11:00

with speech-making is somebody comes

out and says something and then

1:11:001:11:04

Number Ten immediately slapped them

down. You cannot listen to the thing

1:11:041:11:08

you think you are listening to

because you have no idea whether it

1:11:081:11:12

will be contradicted the day after.

Like Philip Hammond in Davos where

1:11:121:11:16

he said we would only diverged

moderately from the EU and then

1:11:161:11:20

Number Ten contradicted him.

And the

idea that Philip Hammond is not a

1:11:201:11:26

key Brexit Minister, the impact of

this is predominantly economic and

1:11:261:11:29

he is the Chancellor of the

Exchequer. Of course he is a Brexit

1:11:291:11:33

Minister.

They are quite worried

about the Remainers and they are

1:11:331:11:37

really worried about Jacob Rees-Mogg

and the hard Brexit faction who

1:11:371:11:41

could really bring down the Prime

Minister tomorrow if they wanted to.

1:11:411:11:46

And at some point, when the Prime

Minister fleshes out in a little bit

1:11:461:11:49

more detail her vision, she cannot

keep Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg

1:11:491:11:57

happy. Both of them have been vocal

this week and then the serious

1:11:571:12:00

problem in the Tory party?

Someone

will have to compromise at some

1:12:001:12:05

point. The hardest Brexiteers have

to get real and they have to realise

1:12:051:12:08

they have most of what they wanted.

If you said almost two years ago

1:12:081:12:13

that the UK would definitely be

leaving all the key institutions of

1:12:131:12:17

the EU, definitely be leaving the

single market, definitely be leaving

1:12:171:12:20

the customs union with a grey area

at around the customs agreement,

1:12:201:12:24

that is something that I think a lot

of pro-Brexit people have accepted

1:12:241:12:30

and pocketed as a good result.

But

the Jacob Rees-Mogg faction of the

1:12:301:12:35

party sound very unhappy about the

direction of travel and they are

1:12:351:12:39

complaining about all sorts of

things?

But what is difficult to

1:12:391:12:43

work out is how much of that is

people positioning to shift the

1:12:431:12:47

argument within Cabinet, outliers

for an argument, so there is not too

1:12:471:12:54

much of a compromise. It is really

all a function of there not being

1:12:541:12:59

leadership and they're not being

someone in charge of the process.

1:12:591:13:05

This is going to have to be, we have

to confront this as a country at

1:13:051:13:11

some point and make a decision and

get on with it one way or another.

1:13:111:13:15

Well when they do, I am sure you

will be here to talk about it.

1:13:151:13:21

That's all for today.

1:13:211:13:23

Parliament's now on recess so I'm

afraid there's no

1:13:231:13:25

Daily or Sunday Politics next week,

however, do join me again a week

1:13:251:13:28

on Sunday at 11 here on BBC One.

1:13:281:13:30

Until then, bye-bye.

1:13:301:13:35

Until then, bye-bye.

1:13:351:13:35

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