27/10/2013 Sunday Politics West Midlands


27/10/2013

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Hope you enjoyed

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the extra hour in bed, and that you've realised it's not 12:45. It's

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11:45! It's getting stormy outside. But they're already battening down

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the hatches at Number Ten because coalition splits are back, with

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bust-ups over free schools and power bills. We'll speak to the Lib Dems,

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and ask Labour who's conning whom over energy.

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EU leaders have been meeting in Brussels. But how's David Cameron

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getting on with that plan to change our relationship with Europe? We

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were there to ask him. Have we got any powers back yet? DS!

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Foreign companies own everything from our energy companies to our

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railways. Does it matter who Maximum Temperature 17 Celsius.

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Goodbye. as many daily journeys made by bus

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than by tube, so why is the planned investment in buses not keeping

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pace? And with me, three journalists

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who've bravely agreed to hunker down in the studio while Britain braces

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itself for massive storm winds, tweeting their political forecasts

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with all the accuracy of Michael Fish on hurricane watch. Helen

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Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt. Now, sometimes coalition splits are

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over-egged, or dare we say even occasionally stage-managed. But this

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week, we've seen what looks like the genuine article. It turns out Nick

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Clegg has his doubts about the coalition's flagship free schools

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policy. David Cameron doesn't much like the green levies on our energy

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bills championed by the Lib Dems. Neither of them seems to have

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bothered to tell the other that they had their doubts. Who better to

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discuss these flare-ups than Lib Dem Deputy Leader Simon Hughes? He joins

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me now. Welcome. Good morning. The Lib Dems spent three years of

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sticking up for the coalition when times were grim. Explain to me the

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logic of splitting from them when times look better. We will stick

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with it for five years. It is working arrangement, but not

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surprisingly, where there right areas on which we disagree over

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where to go next, we will stand up. It is going to be hard enough for

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the Lib Dems to get any credit for the recovery, what ever it is. It

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will be even harder if you seem to be semidetached and picky. The

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coalition has led on economic policy, some of which were entirely

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from our stable. The one you have heard about most often, a Lib Dem

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initiative, was to take people on blowing comes out of tax. The

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recovery would not have happened, there would not have been confidence

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in Britain, had there not been a coalition government with us in it,

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making sure the same policies produced fair outcomes. We are not

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going to leave the credit for any growth - and there has been very

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good news this week. We have played a part in that, and without us, it

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would not have happened. Does it not underline the trust problem you

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have? You promised to abolish tuition fees. You oppose nuclear

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power, now you are cheerleading the first multi-billion pounds

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investment in nuclear generation. You are dying out on your enthusiasm

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on green levies, and now they are up for renegotiation. Why should we

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trust a word you say? In relation to green levies, as you well know, just

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under 10% is to do with helping energy and helping people. Unless

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there is continuing investment in renewables, we will not have the

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British produced energy at cheaper cost to keep those bills down in the

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future. At cheaper cost? Explain that to me. Off-shore energy is

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twice the market rate. The costs of renewables will increasingly come

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down. We have fantastic capacity to produce the energy and deliver lots

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of jobs in the process. The parts of the energy bill that may be up for

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renegotiation seems to be the part where we subsidise to help either

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poor people pay less, or where we do other things. Too insulated the

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homes? Are you up to putting that to general taxation? Wouldn't that be

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progressive? I would. It would be progressive. I would like to do for

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energy bills what the Chancellor has done for road traffic users,

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drivers, which is too fuelled motor fuel -- to freeze new to fall. That

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would mean there would be an immediate relief this year, not

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waiting for the election. So there is a deal to be done there? Yes We

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understand we have to take the burden off the consumer, and also

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deal with the energy companies, who look as if they are not paying all

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the tax they should be, and the regulator, which doesn't regulate

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quickly enough to deal with the issues coming down the track. We can

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toughen the regulator, and I hope that the Chancellor, in the Autumn

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statement, was signalled that energy companies will not be allowed to get

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away with not paying the taxes they should. And this deal will allow

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energy prices to come down? Yes How could David Laws, one of your

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ministers, proudly defend the record of unqualified teachers working in

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free schools, and then stand side-by-side with Mr Clegg, as he

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says he is against them? David Laws was not proudly defending the fact

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that it is unqualified teachers He said that some of the new,

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unqualified teachers in free schools are doing a superb job. But you want

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to get rid of them? We want to make sure that everybody coming into a

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free school ends up being qualified. Ends up? Goes through a process that

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means they have qualifications. Just as we said very clearly at the last

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election that the manifesto curriculum in free schools should be

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the same as other schools. It looks like Mr Clegg is picking a fight

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just for the sake of it. Mr Clegg was taught by people who didn't have

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teaching qualifications in one of the greatest schools in the land, if

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not the world. It didn't seem to do him any harm. What is the problem?

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If you pay to go to a school, you know what you're getting. But that

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is what a free school is. No, you don't pay fees. A free school is

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parents taking the decisions, not you, the politicians. We believe

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they would expect to guarantee is, firstly that the minimum curriculum

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taught across the country is taught in the free schools, and secondly,

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that the teachers there are qualified. Someone who send their

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kids to private schools took a decision to take -- to send their

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children there, even if the teachers were unqualified, because they are

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experts in their field. Someone who send their kids to free schools is

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because -- is their decision, not yours. Because some of the free

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schools are new, and have never been there before, parents need a

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guarantee that there are some basics in place, whatever sort of school.

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So they need you to hold their hand? It is not about holding hands, it is

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about having a minimum guarantee. Our party made clear at our

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conference that this is a priority for us. Nick Clegg reflects the view

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of the party, and I believe it is an entirely rational thing to do. Nick

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Clegg complained that the Prime Minister gave him only 30 minutes

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notice on the Prime Minister Buzz 's U-turn on green levies. That is

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almost as little time as Nick Clegg gave the Prime Minister on his

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U-turn on free schools. Aren't you supposed to be partners? Green

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levies were under discussion in the ministerial group before Wednesday,

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because we identified this as an issue. We do that in a practical

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way. Sometimes there is only half an hour's notice. We had even less than

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half an hour this morning! Simon Hughes, thank you.

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So the price of energy is the big battle ground in politics at the

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moment. 72% of people say that high bills will influence the way they

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vote at the next election. Ed Miliband has promised a price freeze

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after the next election, but will the coalition turned the tables on

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Labour, with its proposal to roll back green levies. Caroline Flint

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joins us from Sheffield. It looks like the coalition will be able to

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take ?50 of energy bills, by removing green levies. It is quite

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clear that different parts of the government are running round waking

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up to the fact that the public feel that this government has not done

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enough to listen to their concerns. Last week, there was a classic case

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of the Prime Minister making up policy literally at the dispatch

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box. Let's see what they say in the autumn statement. The truth is,

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whatever the debate around green levies, and I have always said we

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should look at value for money at those green levies. Our argument is

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about acknowledging there is something wrong with the way the

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market works, and the way those companies are regulated. Behind our

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freeze for 20 months is a package of proposals to reform this market I

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understand that, but you cannot tell as the details about that. I can.

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You cannot give us the details about reforming the market. We are going

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to do three things, and I think I said this last time I was on the

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programme. First, we are going to separate out the generation side

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from the supply side within the big six. Secondly, we will have a energy

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pool, or power exchange, where all energy will have to be traded in

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that pool. Thirdly, we will establish a tougher regulator,

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because Ofgem is increasingly being seen as not doing the job right I

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notice that you didn't mention any reform of the current green and

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social taxes on the energy bill Is it Labour's policy to maintain the

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existing green levies? In 2011, the government chose to get rid of warm

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front, which was the publicly funded through tracks a scheme to support

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new installation. When they got rid of that, it was the first time we

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had a government since the 70s that didn't have such a policy. What is

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your policy? We voted against that because we believe it is wrong. We

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believe that the eco-scheme, a government intervention which is ?47

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of the ?112 on our bills each year, is expensive, bureaucratic and isn't

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going to the fuel poor. I am up for a debate on these issues. I am up

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for a discussion on what the government should do and what these

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energy companies should do. We cannot let Cameron all the energy

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companies off the hook from the way in which they organise their

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businesses, and expect us to pay ever increasing rises in our bills.

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There is ?112 of green levies on our bills at the moment. Did you vote

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against any of them? We didn't, but what I would say ease these were

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government imposed levies. When they got rid of the government funded

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programme, Warm Front, they introduced the eco-scheme. The

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eco-project is one of the ones where the energy companies are saying

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it's too bureaucratic, and it is proving more expensive than

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government estimates, apparently doubled the amount the government

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thought. These things are all worth looking at, but don't go to the

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heart of the issue. According to official figures, on current plans,

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which you support, which you voted for, households will be paying 1%

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more per unit of electricity by 2030. It puts your temporary freeze

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as just a blip. You support a 4 % rise in our bills. I support making

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sure we secure for the future access to energy that we can grow here in

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the UK, whether it is through nuclear, wind or solar, or other

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technologies yet to be developed. We should protect ourselves against

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energy costs we cannot control. The truth is, it is every fair for you

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to put that point across, and I accept that, but we need to hear the

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other side about the cost for bill payers if we didn't invest in new,

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indigenous sources of energy supply for the future, which, in the long

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run, will be cheaper and more secure, and create the jobs we

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need. I think it is important to have a debate about these issues,

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but they have to be seen in the right context. If we stay stuck in

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the past, we will pay more and we will not create jobs. How can you

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criticise the coalition's plans for a new nuclear station, when jeering

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13 years of a Labour government you did not invest in a single nuclear

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plant? You sold off all our nuclear technology to foreign companies

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Energy provision was put out to private hands and there has been no

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obstacle in British law against ownership outside the UK. Part of

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this is looking ahead. Because your previous track record is so bad

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What we did decide under the previous government, we came to the

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view, and there were discussions in our party about this, that we did

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need to support a nuclear future. At the time of that, David Cameron

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was one of those saying that nuclear power should be a last

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resort. And as you said, the Liberals did not support it. We

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stood up for that. We set in train the green light of 10 sites,

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including Hinkley Point, for nuclear development. I am glad to

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see that is making progress and we should make more progress over the

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years ahead. We took a tough decision when other governments had

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not done. You did not build a new nuclear station. When you get back

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into power, will you build HS2? That has not had a blank cheque

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from the Labour Party. I am in favour of good infrastructure. Are

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you in favour of?, answer the question? I have answered the

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question. It does not have a blank cheque. If the prices are too high,

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we will review the decision when we come back to vote on it. We will be

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looking at it closely. We have to look for value for money and how it

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benefits the country. Have you stocked up on jumpers this winter?

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I am perfectly all right with my clothing. What is important, it is

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ridiculous for the Government to suggest that the answer to the loss

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of trust in the energy companies is to put on another jumper.

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The coalition has taken a long time to come up with anything that can

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trump Ed Miliband's simple freezing energy prices, vote for us. Are

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they on the brink of doing so? I do not think so. They have had a

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problem that has dominated the debate, talking about GDP, the

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figures came out on Friday and said, well, and went back to talking

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about energy. My problem with what David Cameron proposes is he agrees

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with the analysis that the Big Six make too many profits. He wants to

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move the green levies into general taxation, so that he looks like he

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is protecting the profits of the energy companies. If the coalition

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can say they will take money off the bills, does that change the

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game? I do not think the Liberal Democrats are an obstacle to

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unwinding the green levies. I think Nick Clegg is open to doing a deal,

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but the real obstacle is the carbon reduction targets that we signed up

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to during the boom years. They were ambitious I thought at the time

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From that we have the taxes and clocking up of the supply-side of

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the economy. Unless he will revise that, and build from first

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principles a new strategy, he cannot do more than put a dent into

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green levies. He might say as I have got to ?50 now and if you

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voters in in an overall majority, I will look up what we have done in

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the better times and give you more. I am sure he will do that. It might

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be ?50 of the Bill, but it will be ?50 on your general taxation bill,

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which would be more progressive They will find it. We will never

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see it in general taxation. The problem for the Coalition on what

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Ed Miliband has done is that it is five weeks since he made that

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speech and it is all we are talking about. David Cameron spent those

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five weeks trying to work out whether Ed Miliband is a Marxist or

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whether he is connected to Middle Britain. That is why Ed Miliband

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set the agenda. The coalition are squabbling among themselves,

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looking petulant, on energy, and on schools. Nobody is taking notice of

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the fact the economy is under way, the recovery is under way. Ed

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Miliband has made the weather on this.

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It UK has a relaxed attitude about selling off assets based -- to

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companies based abroad. But this week we have seen the Swiss owner

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of one of Scotland's largest industrial sites, Grangemouth, come

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within a whisker of closing part of it down. So should we care whether

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British assets have foreign owners? Britain might be a nation of

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homeowners, but we appear to have lost our taste for owning some of

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our biggest businesses. These are among the crown jewels sold off in

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the past three decades to companies based abroad. Roughly half of

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Britain's essential services have overseas owners. The airport owner,

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British Airports Authority, is owned by a Spanish company.

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Britain's largest water company Thames, is owned by a consortium

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led by an Australian bank. Four out of six of Britain's biggest energy

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companies are owned by overseas giants, and one of these, EDF

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Energy, which is owned by the French state, is building Britain's

:20:53.:20:55.

first nuclear power plant in a generation, backed by Chinese

:20:56.:21:02.

investors. It's a similar story for train operator Arriva, bought by a

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company owned by the German state. So part of the railways privatised

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by the British government was effectively re-nationalised by the

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German government. But does it matter who owns these companies as

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long as the lights stay on, the trains run on time, and we can

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still eat Cadbury's Dairy Milk? We are joined by the general

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secretary of the RMT, Bob Crow, and by venture capitalist Julie Meyer.

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They go head to head. Have we seen the consequences of

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relying for essential services to be foreign-owned? Four of the Big

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Six energy companies, Grangemouth, owned by a tax exile in Switzerland.

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It is not good. I do not think there is a cause and effect

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relationship between foreign ownership and consumer prices. That

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is not the right comparison. We need to be concerned about

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businesses represented the future, businesses we are good at

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innovating for example in financial services and the UK has a history

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of building businesses, such as Monotypes. If we were not creating

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businesses here -- Monotise. Like so many businesses creating

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products and services and creating the shareholders. Should we allow

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hour essential services to be in foreign ownership? It was

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demonstrated this week at Grangemouth. If you do not own the

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industry, you do not own it. The MPs of this country and the

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politicians in Scotland have no say, they were consultants.

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Multinationals decide whether to shut a company down. If that had

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been Unite union, they are the ones who saved the jobs. They

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capitulated. They will come back, like they have for the past 150

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years, and capture again what they lost. If it had closed, they would

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have lost their jobs for ever. If the union had called the members up

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without a ballot for strike action, there would have been uproar. This

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person in Switzerland can decide to shut the entire industry down. The

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coalition, the Labour Party, as well, when Labour was in government,

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they played a role of allowing industries to go abroad, and it

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should be returned to public ownership. Nestor. It has

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demonstrated that the Net comes from new businesses. We must not

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be... When Daly motion was stopped by the French government to be sold,

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it was an arrow to the heart of French entrepreneurs. We must not

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create that culture in the UK. Every train running in France is

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built in France. 90% of the trains running in Germany are built in

:24:30.:24:36.

Germany. In Japan, it has to be built in that country, and now an

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energy company in France is reducing its nuclear capability in

:24:45.:24:48.

its own country and wants to make profits out of the British industry

:24:49.:24:52.

to put back into it state industry. That happened with the railway

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industry. They want to make money at the expense of their own state

:24:57.:25:02.

companies. We sold off energy production. How did we end up in a

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position where our nuclear capacity will be built by a company owned by

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a socialist date, France, and funded by a communist one, China,

:25:16.:25:24.

for vital infrastructure? I am not suggesting that is in the national

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interest. I am saying we can pick any one example and say it is a

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shame. The simple matter of the fact is the owners are having to

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make decisions. Not just Grangemouth, businesses are making

:25:37.:25:40.

decisions about what is the common good. Not just in the shareholders'

:25:41.:25:47.

interest. For employees, customers. What is in the common good when

:25:48.:25:52.

prices go up by 10% and the reason is that 20 years ago they shut

:25:53.:25:56.

every coal pit down in this country, the Germans kept theirs open and

:25:57.:26:01.

subsidised it and now we have the Germans doing away with nuclear

:26:02.:26:07.

power and they have coal. Under the Labour government, in 2008, the

:26:08.:26:14.

climate change Act was passed. Well before that, and you know yourself,

:26:15.:26:18.

they shut down the coal mines to smash the National Union of

:26:19.:26:22.

Mineworkers because they dared to stand up for people in their

:26:23.:26:28.

community. Even if we wanted to reopen the coalmines, it would be

:26:29.:26:32.

pointless. Under the 2008 Act, we are not meant to burn more coal

:26:33.:26:40.

The can, as if you spent some of the profits, you could have carbon

:26:41.:26:47.

catch up. That does not exist on a massive scale. You are arguing the

:26:48.:26:51.

case, Julie Meyer, for entrepreneurs to come to this

:26:52.:26:56.

country. Even Bob Crow is not against that. We are trying to

:26:57.:27:02.

argue, should essential services be in foreign hands? Not those in

:27:03.:27:10.

Silicon round about doing start ups. I am trying to draw a broader

:27:11.:27:15.

principle than just energy. Something like broadband services,

:27:16.:27:19.

also important to the functioning of the economy. I believe in the

:27:20.:27:26.

UK's ability to innovate. When we have businesses that play off

:27:27.:27:31.

broadband companies to get the best prices for consumers. These new

:27:32.:27:36.

businesses and business models are the best way. Not to control, but

:27:37.:27:43.

to influence. It will be a disaster. Prices will go up and up as a

:27:44.:27:48.

result. Nissan in Sunderland, a Japanese factory, some of the best

:27:49.:27:54.

cars and productivity. You want that to be nationalised and bring

:27:55.:27:57.

it down to the standard of British Leyland? It is not bring it down to

:27:58.:28:02.

the standard. The car manufacturing base in this country has been

:28:03.:28:07.

wrecked. We make more cars now for 20 years -- than in 20 years.

:28:08.:28:13.

Ford's Dagenham produced some of the best cars in the world. Did you

:28:14.:28:20.

buy one? I cannot drive. They moved their plants to other countries

:28:21.:28:27.

where it was cheaper labour. Would you nationalise Nissan? There

:28:28.:28:31.

should be one car industry that produces cars for people. This week

:28:32.:28:38.

the EU summit was about Angela Merkel's mobile phone being tapped,

:28:39.:28:45.

they call it a handy. We sent Adam to Brussels and told him to ignore

:28:46.:28:49.

the business about phone-tapping and investigate the Prime

:28:50.:28:51.

Minister's policy on Europe instead. I have come to my first EU summit to

:28:52.:29:08.

see how David Cameron is getting on with his strategy to claim power was

:29:09.:29:12.

back from Brussels. Got any powers back yet? Yes! Which ones? Sadly,

:29:13.:29:21.

his fellow leaders were not as forthcoming. Chancellor, are you

:29:22.:29:25.

going to give any powers back to Britain? Has David Cameron asked you

:29:26.:29:32.

for any powers back? The president of the commission just laughed, and

:29:33.:29:39.

listen to the Lithuanian President. How is David Cameron's renegotiation

:29:40.:29:50.

strategy going? What's that? He wants powers back for Britain. No

:29:51.:29:55.

one knows what powers David Cameron actually wants. Even our usual

:29:56.:29:59.

allies, like Sweden, are bit baffled. We actually don't know yet

:30:00.:30:07.

what is going through the UK membership. We will await the

:30:08.:30:14.

finalisation of that first. You should ask him, and then tell us!

:30:15.:30:20.

Here is someone who must know, the Dutch Prime Minister, he is doing

:30:21.:30:25.

what we are doing, carrying out a review of the EU powers, known as

:30:26.:30:30.

competencies in the jargon, before negotiating to get some back. Have

:30:31.:30:34.

you had any negotiations with David Cameron over what powers you can

:30:35.:30:39.

bring back from Brussels? That is not on the agenda of this summit.

:30:40.:30:46.

Have you talked to him about it This is not on the schedule for this

:30:47.:30:50.

summit. David Cameron's advises tummy it is

:30:51.:30:59.

because he is playing the long game. -- David Cameron's advisers tell me.

:31:00.:31:07.

At this summit, there was a task force discussing how to cut EU red

:31:08.:31:15.

tape. Just how long this game is was explained to me outside the summit,

:31:16.:31:19.

by the leader of the Conservatives in the European Parliament. I think

:31:20.:31:25.

the behind-the-scenes negotiations will start happening when the new

:31:26.:31:28.

commissioner is appointed later next year. I think the detailed

:31:29.:31:34.

negotiations will start to happen bubbly after the UK general

:31:35.:31:38.

election. That is when we will start getting all of the detail of the

:31:39.:31:43.

horse trading, and real, Lake night negotiations. Angela Merkel seems

:31:44.:31:50.

keen to rewrite the EU's main treaties to deal with changes in the

:31:51.:31:55.

Eurozone, and that is the mechanism David Cameron would use to

:31:56.:31:59.

renegotiate our membership. Everyone here says his relationship with the

:32:00.:32:03.

German Chancellor is strong. So after days in this building, here is

:32:04.:32:08.

how it looks. David Cameron has a mountain to climb. It is climbable,

:32:09.:32:13.

but he isn't even in the foothills yet. Has he even started packing his

:32:14.:32:19.

bags for the trip? Joining us now, a man who knows a

:32:20.:32:23.

thing or two about the difficulties Prime Minister 's face in Europe.

:32:24.:32:29.

Former Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine. We are nine

:32:30.:32:32.

months from David Cameron's defining speech on EU renegotiation. Can you

:32:33.:32:41.

think of one area of progress? I don't know. And you don't know. And

:32:42.:32:46.

that's a good thing. Why is it a good thing? Because the real

:32:47.:32:52.

progress goes on behind closed doors. And only the most naive,

:32:53.:33:03.

because the real progress goes on behind closed doors. Because, in

:33:04.:33:11.

this weary world, you and I, Andrew, know full well that the moment you

:33:12.:33:16.

say, I making progress, people say, where? And the machine goes to work

:33:17.:33:21.

to show that the progress isn't enough. So you are much better off

:33:22.:33:27.

making progress as best you can in the privacy of private diplomacy. It

:33:28.:33:37.

is a long journey ahead. In this long journey, do you have a clear

:33:38.:33:41.

sense of the destination? Do you have a clear sense of what powers Mr

:33:42.:33:47.

Cameron wants to negotiate? I have a clear sense of the destination,

:33:48.:33:52.

which is a victory for the campaign that he will win to stay inside the

:33:53.:33:58.

European community. That is the agenda, and I have total support for

:33:59.:34:06.

that. I understand that, but if he is incapable of getting any tangible

:34:07.:34:12.

sign of renegotiation, if he is able only to do what Wilson did in 1975,

:34:13.:34:18.

which was to get a couple of token changes to our membership status, he

:34:19.:34:23.

goes into that referendum without much to argue for. He has everything

:34:24.:34:29.

to argue for. He's got Britain's vital role as a major contributor to

:34:30.:34:37.

the community. He's got Britain's self interest as a major

:34:38.:34:43.

beneficiary, and Britain's vital role in the City of London. He's got

:34:44.:34:49.

everything to argue for. He could argue for that now. He could have a

:34:50.:34:54.

referendum now. He doesn't want one now. I haven't any doubt that he

:34:55.:35:02.

will come back with something to talk about. But it may be slightly

:35:03.:35:11.

different to what his critics, the UK isolationist party people, want.

:35:12.:35:17.

He may, for example, have found that allies within the community want

:35:18.:35:23.

change as well, and he may secure changes in the way the community

:35:24.:35:28.

works, which would be a significant argument within the referendum

:35:29.:35:32.

campaign. Let me give you an example. I think it is a scandal

:35:33.:35:37.

that the European Commission don't secure the auditing of some of the

:35:38.:35:44.

accounts. Perhaps that could be on the agenda. He might find a lot of

:35:45.:35:49.

contributing countries, like Germany, like Colin and, would be

:35:50.:35:57.

very keen. -- like Holland. David vetoed the increase in the European

:35:58.:36:02.

budgets the other day, and he had a lot of allies. So working within

:36:03.:36:08.

Europe on the things that people paying the European bills want is

:36:09.:36:13.

fertile ground. Is John Major right to call for a windfall tax on the

:36:14.:36:20.

energy companies? John is a very cautious fellow. He doesn't say

:36:21.:36:24.

things without thinking them out. So I was surprised that he went for a

:36:25.:36:31.

windfall tax. First of all, it is retrospective, and secondly, it is

:36:32.:36:35.

difficult to predict what the consequences will be. I am, myself,

:36:36.:36:41.

more interested in the other part of his speech, which was talking about

:36:42.:36:44.

the need for the Conservative Party to seek a wider horizon, to

:36:45.:36:50.

recognise what is happening to the Conservative Party in the way in

:36:51.:36:54.

which its membership is shrinking into a southeastern enclave. Are you

:36:55.:37:04.

in favour of a windfall tax? I am not in favour of increasing any

:37:05.:37:15.

taxes. Do you share Iain Duncan Smith's point of view on welfare

:37:16.:37:22.

reform? I think Iain Duncan Smith is right. It is extremely difficult to

:37:23.:37:31.

do, but he is right to try. I think public opinion is behind him, but it

:37:32.:37:40.

isn't easy, because on the fringe of these issues there are genuine hard

:37:41.:37:45.

luck stories, and they are the ones that become the focus of attention

:37:46.:37:50.

the moment you introduce change. It requires a lot of political skill to

:37:51.:37:56.

negotiate your way through that. But isn't Iain Duncan Smith right to

:37:57.:38:01.

invoke the beverage principle, that you should be expected to make a

:38:02.:38:05.

contribution for the welfare you depend on? Yes, he is. I will let

:38:06.:38:11.

you get your Sunday lunch. Thanks for joining us.

:38:12.:38:16.

Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be looking

:38:17.:38:26.

Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And our guests

:38:27.:38:33.

today both entered Parliament at the last election, share an interest in

:38:34.:38:36.

Pakistan and Kashmir, and beyond that have absolutely nothing in

:38:37.:38:39.

common. Andrew Griffiths, Conservative MP for Burton, is a

:38:40.:38:43.

tireless campaigner for cuts in beer duty. Perhaps he should have a word

:38:44.:38:51.

with the Shadow Treasury Minister, Shabana Mahmood, Labour MP for

:38:52.:38:57.

Birmingham Ladywood. Let's begin though by finding out

:38:58.:39:01.

what they make of that extension to the pilot badger cull in

:39:02.:39:04.

Gloucestershire. Natural England have been given a licence to

:39:05.:39:07.

continue shooting for a further eight weeks, after only 30% of the

:39:08.:39:10.

area's badgers were killed during the original six`week period. To be

:39:11.:39:14.

effective against bovine TB, it's believed 70% of badgers need to be

:39:15.:39:18.

killed, much to the horror of some campaigners.

:39:19.:39:27.

Keep telling us this is led by science. It has gone beyond any

:39:28.:39:34.

scientific justification there could have been for killing badgers and

:39:35.:39:40.

that was bad enough to begin with. Andrew, this is beginning to look

:39:41.:39:47.

like a bit of embarrassing scenario for the government. There is ill

:39:48.:39:51.

feeling from the countryside. We recognise this is a difficult

:39:52.:39:56.

decision and thing to do. But I have seen in my own constituency the

:39:57.:40:01.

devastation that TB can cost of farmers and it can devastate

:40:02.:40:06.

generations of work. The taxpayer over the past ten years has had to

:40:07.:40:12.

spend ?5 million on fighting TB in cattle and badgers. The situation

:40:13.:40:16.

gets worse every year. We cannot continue and the way that we have

:40:17.:40:21.

been doing so. We must do something. Shabana, I recall the early days of

:40:22.:40:29.

the Tony Blair government. The agricultural Minister then talked

:40:30.:40:33.

about this issue. Andrew has talked about the cost and damage to

:40:34.:40:37.

farmers. At least we can get this problem. The last time the

:40:38.:40:42.

government commissioned a ten year trial project to see what difference

:40:43.:40:46.

Collingwood make the problem of bovine TB, the scientific evidence

:40:47.:40:53.

was against any cull. It can only at best aspect 16% of the problem so

:40:54.:40:56.

you still have a day for percent of the problem to deal with and the

:40:57.:41:00.

government's only evidence of its current badger cull shows that it

:41:01.:41:03.

will cost farmers more money than it will save. So that man in the clip

:41:04.:41:12.

suggested that it is bad science and politically wet. If you look at

:41:13.:41:18.

countries like Australia and New Zealand, they have seen it TB fall

:41:19.:41:22.

through tackling it. And Ireland, they have had it since 2000, they

:41:23.:41:28.

have seen a drop of 45%. No one talks about the 300,000 cattle that

:41:29.:41:32.

have been needlessly slaughtered because of TB. Do you understand the

:41:33.:41:39.

sensitivities of people who view strongly about killing badgers on

:41:40.:41:44.

such a scale? Of course I do but it is a dangerous issue. Having badgers

:41:45.:41:50.

with bovine TB in the population is not something we must put up with. I

:41:51.:41:57.

do not think Andrew has done the cause of scientific experts,

:41:58.:42:02.

world`renowned experts, any good at all. They are basing their positions

:42:03.:42:06.

on scientific fact, that is a problem with this badger cull, it is

:42:07.:42:11.

a shot in the dark and bad for farmers. We will watch how it

:42:12.:42:14.

progresses with interest. Coming up a little later: How do you

:42:15.:42:18.

keep ex`offenders on the straight and narrow and stop the revolving

:42:19.:42:21.

door of crime? The government's "revolution" in the Probation

:42:22.:42:24.

Service could bring round yet more work for G4S and Serco. We'll have

:42:25.:42:33.

more on this in a few minutes time. Who said what to whom, and when?

:42:34.:42:39.

"Plebgate" is as much about what wasn't said. The word "pleb", for a

:42:40.:42:42.

start, according to Andrew Mitchell. When three Police Federation

:42:43.:42:44.

representatives were hauled before the Home Affairs Select Committee,

:42:45.:42:48.

they had to account for what they'd said to the press, after a meeting

:42:49.:42:51.

with the Sutton Coldfield MP just over a year ago. Then their chief

:42:52.:42:57.

constables had to explain why they'd rejected calls to discipline them.

:42:58.:43:00.

Ben Godfrey asks if 45 seconds in Downing Street could do lasting

:43:01.:43:07.

damage to the Police. Who would have thought that a few

:43:08.:43:10.

words uttered by Andrew Mitchell at the end of a long and tiring day,

:43:11.:43:15.

more than a year ago, would have the power to summon three Midlands chief

:43:16.:43:17.

constables before a parliamentary committee, and in a humbled mode?

:43:18.:43:22.

My officers got involved in a political campaign which was

:43:23.:43:25.

ill`thought through and has led to a lot of public confidence issues for

:43:26.:43:32.

us. All three came to offer Mr Mitchell

:43:33.:43:35.

an apology, but remained divided about whether disciplinary action

:43:36.:43:37.

should be taken following an investigation into three Police

:43:38.:43:40.

Federation officers who briefed against the Sutton Coldfield MP last

:43:41.:43:47.

October. I've taken the decision that the

:43:48.:43:49.

decision`making process should be revisited and I've sought for that

:43:50.:43:53.

to be done independently. My deputy chief constable, who in

:43:54.:43:57.

this case took the decision that there was no action, he had all the

:43:58.:44:01.

evidence available to him when he made that decision.

:44:02.:44:04.

So you disagree with what Mr Shaw is doing?

:44:05.:44:14.

Yes. If you look closely at the evidence, I think you'd almost

:44:15.:44:17.

certainly expect there to be a different decision for the three

:44:18.:44:19.

officers because their involvement and their specifics of the

:44:20.:44:22.

allegations made is very, very different.

:44:23.:44:26.

MPs were obviously frustrated. In one force, the chap will face

:44:27.:44:29.

misconduct proceedings and the two other people who took part in the

:44:30.:44:33.

same event will escape. Are you going to be comfortable with that

:44:34.:44:40.

state of affairs? I'm afraid, Mr Parker, Mr Sims, that

:44:41.:44:43.

we think you've made the wrong decision and we feel you all should

:44:44.:44:48.

have done the same thing by having a redetermination.

:44:49.:44:50.

So after five hours of witnesses, Plebgate will now spawn another

:44:51.:44:57.

report. Yes, on and on it goes. John God,

:44:58.:45:02.

the public relations consultant who briefed the media about that suppose

:45:03.:45:06.

it private meeting in Andrew Mitchell's constituency office.

:45:07.:45:13.

Shabana, do you think there has been an element of conspiracy about this?

:45:14.:45:17.

I think this whole affair has been barred from start to finish. We are

:45:18.:45:23.

not beyond the other finish! Yes, and it only seems to be getting

:45:24.:45:27.

worse at the moment. It has knocked public confidence in the police. It

:45:28.:45:33.

has denied Andrew Mitchell some truth and resolution. It has cost

:45:34.:45:36.

him his cabinet can be at least up until now and I think all of the

:45:37.:45:41.

individuals who have a stake in this must get a grip and sort it out and

:45:42.:45:45.

recognise how much damage this is doing. The police do a fantastic job

:45:46.:45:49.

and put their lives on the link to protect us. When things go wrong we

:45:50.:45:52.

must have confidence in the process that means we will get screwed and

:45:53.:46:00.

resolution at the end of it and we are not getting that at the moment

:46:01.:46:04.

from wide gate. We are now hearing there is a serious proposition that

:46:05.:46:07.

the police may be equipped now with cameras and recording equipment that

:46:08.:46:09.

they would wear to protect the public. It was only because one of

:46:10.:46:13.

Andrew Mitchell's assistants chose to record that situation that this

:46:14.:46:19.

hearing is taking place at all. It is correct to say that the vast

:46:20.:46:23.

majority of police officers up and down the country to a brilliant job.

:46:24.:46:27.

But the evidence in this case as there for all to see. The recording

:46:28.:46:32.

shows Mr Mitchell giving a full explanation of what happened, but he

:46:33.:46:36.

said, all of those things were laid out in front of those officers, and

:46:37.:46:40.

yet, they went out in front of the press and hold a completely

:46:41.:46:44.

different view. Cannot have a situation where that happens to a

:46:45.:46:49.

Cabinet Minister, because if it happens to a Cabinet Minister, it

:46:50.:46:51.

could happen to an ordinary member of the public. There is clearly an

:46:52.:46:56.

issue of trust here and it comes to a trade`off as to whether the public

:46:57.:47:01.

trust the police or politicians, both who are now mistrusted slightly

:47:02.:47:06.

by the public. But we must try to rebuild this fabric of upholding the

:47:07.:47:11.

law as we know what. That is true and as a starting .1 thing we have

:47:12.:47:16.

recently been talking about is getting rid of the IPCC, the

:47:17.:47:19.

Independent Police Complaints Commission, because this affair has

:47:20.:47:23.

showed that they are not able to bring complaints that are made to a

:47:24.:47:28.

full and proper resolution and eBay that the public would expect. We

:47:29.:47:32.

could replace that with a new authority that would have the power

:47:33.:47:35.

to repel disciplinary action if it is necessary because this affair has

:47:36.:47:42.

shown that the IPCC does not have the keys to do any of those things.

:47:43.:47:48.

We have heard already about budgets and changes to terms and conditions

:47:49.:47:53.

of the police. It is a poor show that negotiations between the

:47:54.:47:56.

government and the police has got to the stage where frankly the

:47:57.:47:58.

relationship is breaking down. That is correct. It is a huge mistake on

:47:59.:48:10.

behalf of the Police Federation. You talk about cuts and we have seen

:48:11.:48:13.

record falls in crime. We have seen crime at a record low. For which the

:48:14.:48:20.

police should be congratulated. Of course they should. We have seen the

:48:21.:48:24.

police union is trying to use the Andrew Mitchell affair as a

:48:25.:48:27.

bargaining chip in order to break down the government's resolve. That

:48:28.:48:34.

is no way for the police to act. The starting point should be looking at

:48:35.:48:37.

how we resolve complaints when they are made about the police so that we

:48:38.:48:41.

can restore trust and confidence that when complaints are made they

:48:42.:48:44.

will be properly dealt with. Thank you both.

:48:45.:48:51.

It is nothing less than a revolution in the Probation Service and the

:48:52.:48:54.

government wants to think about privatising it. Companies and

:48:55.:48:58.

charities must have bids and by next April by a series of

:48:59.:49:01.

payment`by`results contract with the new system due to be rolled out in

:49:02.:49:06.

one year's time. With reoffending rates sharply down in our part of

:49:07.:49:15.

the country, what now? Cath Mackie no reports.

:49:16.:49:22.

Pip Singleton has written an open letter to the burglar who ransacked

:49:23.:49:26.

her sister's home in Worcester. He stole a bracelet designed by

:49:27.:49:29.

their oldest sister who died of cancer. The police felt that they

:49:30.:49:35.

were not first timers and they were possible regular offenders because

:49:36.:49:40.

of the way that they got in through the back door.

:49:41.:49:42.

Not that long ago, the burglar may well have been Ben. I was 18 when I

:49:43.:49:48.

first committed a crime. Now 22, he's come to West Bromwich

:49:49.:49:52.

Police Station ` this time as a reformed offender meeting those who

:49:53.:49:55.

helped him rehabilitate back into society. Whilst I was in jail I did

:49:56.:50:06.

a fresh start course. When I got out I got in touch with the West

:50:07.:50:11.

Midlands Police. I did the programme with the Princes trust and that has

:50:12.:50:13.

helped me. Upstairs police and probation

:50:14.:50:16.

officers sit together trying to stop persistent reoffenders across

:50:17.:50:23.

Sandwell. I think it is a huge challenge for the individual. It is

:50:24.:50:26.

like changing your whole lifestyle. It is not something you can do at a

:50:27.:50:33.

flick of a switch. We should discuss how they have got on in prison, what

:50:34.:50:38.

things they have achieved and what rehabilitation measures have been

:50:39.:50:43.

put in place. We will look at things like accommodation needs, making

:50:44.:50:49.

sure their finances and benefits issues are going to be sorted and

:50:50.:50:52.

resolved upon release. The result is one of the lowest

:50:53.:50:55.

reoffending rates in the country. You might be thinking at this point,

:50:56.:51:03.

"Well, what's the problem?" Well, there is a big problem nationally,

:51:04.:51:06.

according to the Justice Secretary Chris Grayling. He says 600,000

:51:07.:51:08.

crimes are committed annually by reoffenders, costing the country ?13

:51:09.:51:11.

billion, and his verdict is "This can't go on".

:51:12.:51:14.

Arguably his most controversial proposal is to privatise the

:51:15.:51:16.

Probation Service for low`risk offenders on a payment`by`results

:51:17.:51:19.

basis, prompting a call for strike action from staff. Many poor things

:51:20.:51:31.

it repugnant morally that this should take place. The justice

:51:32.:51:35.

system must be independent and not answerable to shareholders.

:51:36.:51:38.

Serious concern too from some police and crime commissioners. If our key

:51:39.:51:44.

partners are disrupted and place by people without a track record or the

:51:45.:51:48.

experience and this area, clearly that could be a major blow to the

:51:49.:51:52.

achievements we have got in the West Midlands.

:51:53.:51:54.

But away from the politics, the victims live with the consequences

:51:55.:52:00.

of reoffending. Please do the right thing and give it back to us, Pip

:52:01.:52:07.

Singleton. Since Cath Mackie completed at the

:52:08.:52:10.

port media that Probation Service staff will strike on Tuesday and

:52:11.:52:16.

Wednesday next week and processed `` in protest against the government's

:52:17.:52:21.

future plans. We are joined by the head of

:52:22.:52:23.

Britain's oldest penal reform charity. They believe that prison

:52:24.:52:30.

does not work. We have heard from the Justice Secretary Chris Grayling

:52:31.:52:35.

who says there are 600,000 claims committed each year by the

:52:36.:52:39.

offenders, costing the country ?13 billion each year. To borrow from my

:52:40.:52:43.

rather inelegant sentence earlier on, it is broke, the system does

:52:44.:52:50.

need a shake`up. Yes, the system is in a terrible place. It is very

:52:51.:52:55.

difficult to see positive outcomes across the justice system.

:52:56.:53:02.

Particularly with regard to prisons. Our charity believes that the prison

:53:03.:53:06.

does have a purpose, and that is to lock people who are dangerous away

:53:07.:53:09.

from the rest of us and that could be for long periods of time in some

:53:10.:53:15.

cases. What it is not there to do is to fill it with people that we find

:53:16.:53:18.

simply annoying and not dangerous and to have committed crimes of

:53:19.:53:24.

property, time and again, it is not there to put these people are way

:53:25.:53:28.

for short periods of time. That is why short`term prison sentences are

:53:29.:53:33.

so unsuccessful because it is impossible for them to have area

:53:34.:53:37.

ability to purpose and it is impossible to do anything positive

:53:38.:53:39.

in the community for these people when better alternatives exist. Do

:53:40.:53:45.

you not welcome the government's and arrived in these reforms which is

:53:46.:53:48.

about concentrating what is in the public service, the Probation

:53:49.:53:53.

Service, and that minority of high`risk offenders, who most need

:53:54.:54:01.

the services of the probation staff? There is great concern around the

:54:02.:54:04.

changes made by the government as regards taking control away from

:54:05.:54:08.

local, specialist probation trusts, who will be stripped down so that

:54:09.:54:14.

perhaps only one third, as little of 20%, could be covered by National

:54:15.:54:25.

Probation Service. They are suggesting that only 10% of the

:54:26.:54:28.

money given to private companies will be paid by results, it could be

:54:29.:54:33.

as little as 5%, but we are very concerned that it will create poor

:54:34.:54:37.

incentives and that companies will be able to benefit from that.

:54:38.:54:45.

One of the other authorities that have played into the smaller the

:54:46.:54:48.

date in terms of policy making, the Policy Exchange, they say this

:54:49.:54:53.

offers tremendous opportunities and greater discretion for staff and the

:54:54.:55:00.

potential for innovation. If you look at the justice as a whole, the

:55:01.:55:05.

police do an excellent job and their performance is good. The Probation

:55:06.:55:08.

Service to an excellent job. Do not just listen to me, ask the Minister

:55:09.:55:14.

of Justice for the performance is the sticks. Many in this region,

:55:15.:55:22.

including West Mercia and Warwickshire are judged been

:55:23.:55:27.

exceptional. Why destroy these institutions that have been built up

:55:28.:55:33.

over 100 years? Because they simply are not working. Let us look at the

:55:34.:55:37.

facts. If you come out of prison, almost half of those who do commit a

:55:38.:55:42.

crime after 12 months. If you have had a small sentence, 55% of those

:55:43.:55:46.

offenders will be commit a crime within 12 months. They have a 43%

:55:47.:55:52.

success rate. That is not good enough. 600,000 claims as 600,000

:55:53.:55:57.

victims and that is who should be at the front of this debate. Is the

:55:58.:56:02.

merit of the government's proposals is precisely that the new

:56:03.:56:05.

arrangement will concentrate the efforts and the public's Probation

:56:06.:56:09.

Service and that minority, those most likely to reoffend? Even though

:56:10.:56:17.

the Probation Service under these plans would focus on the high

:56:18.:56:20.

offenders, you must do something about the risk of reoffending for

:56:21.:56:23.

those who are not in that category and the problem with this proposal

:56:24.:56:27.

is Chris Grayling is the minister who set up the Work Programme,

:56:28.:56:30.

another payment`by`results system designed to get people back into

:56:31.:56:34.

work, which on the government's owns this this text has shown it to be

:56:35.:56:39.

worse than doing nothing. We cannot face that risk and the Probation

:56:40.:56:43.

Service, especially when crime is rising and other areas. Let us pause

:56:44.:56:50.

for the moment. As we have heard from Mark, West Mercia's Probation

:56:51.:56:57.

Service as only five of those rated outstanding.

:56:58.:57:01.

Staff and other local partners are planning to bid for one of the new

:57:02.:57:04.

contracts themselves. But first they're having to go through an

:57:05.:57:07.

elaborate process to form themselves into a kind of mutual society. We

:57:08.:57:10.

asked the Conservative MP for Kenilworth and Southam if this

:57:11.:57:13.

wasn't weighting the process too heavily in favour of private

:57:14.:57:15.

companies. An existing probation trust is a

:57:16.:57:19.

public sector body and if you have a payment`by`results system which says

:57:20.:57:21.

to someone, "Look, we will pay you the full contract value only if you

:57:22.:57:24.

succeed in getting reoffending down," you're asking them to put

:57:25.:57:28.

some of their payment at risk. If it's a solely public sector body,

:57:29.:57:32.

then the money they're using to put at risk is still public money, so

:57:33.:57:38.

the system doesn't work like that. There you are, Shabana, a precise

:57:39.:57:42.

response, he is seen payment`by`results as the way to go.

:57:43.:57:47.

He is completely wrong. It has failed and the Work Programme and

:57:48.:57:50.

there is every indication that it will not work for the Probation

:57:51.:57:53.

Service. We are seeing some radical reform. For the first time, people

:57:54.:57:59.

going on a short sentence will get rehabilitation support and mentoring

:58:00.:58:02.

when they come out. For the first time we are guaranteeing that

:58:03.:58:05.

everyone will have 12 months of support. It is important to try and

:58:06.:58:09.

break the cycle and work with people. Mark, we know there will be

:58:10.:58:15.

a strike next week, is this a helpful response by the staff? I can

:58:16.:58:21.

understand why it is happening. No other country in the world has done

:58:22.:58:24.

this. The companies who may bid and when these contracts are under

:58:25.:58:28.

investigation from the Serious Fraud Office. We must leave that

:58:29.:58:33.

discussion therefore the moment. Now our regular round`up of the

:58:34.:58:37.

political week in the Midlands in 60 Seconds, brought to us this week by

:58:38.:58:40.

our Hereford and Worcester political reporter, Matthew Bone.

:58:41.:58:44.

Macmillan Cancer Support is backing a radical plan to provide

:58:45.:58:46.

co`ordinated cancer care for more than a million people in

:58:47.:58:51.

Staffordshire. You have to look at a local health

:58:52.:58:56.

system in a different way ` in its entirety and look at a patient

:58:57.:58:59.

pathway from someone suspecting of their cancer right through to end of

:59:00.:59:04.

life. But no plan's been published yet

:59:05.:59:07.

about the future of Stafford Hospital. The health regulator

:59:08.:59:09.

Monitor's asked for a 40`day extension while it looks at

:59:10.:59:14.

finances. The Fire Brigades Union in Hereford

:59:15.:59:17.

and Worcester has turned up the heat by saying that ?4.7 million of cuts

:59:18.:59:21.

over the next three years could cost lives.

:59:22.:59:23.

Meanwhile, Dudley and Herefordshire Council also had gloomy news about

:59:24.:59:26.

the impact of cuts. Dudley needs to save ?32 million more than

:59:27.:59:29.

originally thought by 2017. Herefordshire says it needs to

:59:30.:59:36.

increase council tax bills by 5%. Finally, the Staffordshire Moorlands

:59:37.:59:38.

came out top as the Midland's most happy place in a survey this week.

:59:39.:59:42.

But Wolverhampton had the lowest happiness rating.

:59:43.:59:53.

And they also say, Shabana, that Birmingham is below the national

:59:54.:59:59.

average. I thought the city was supposed to be one happy family! I

:00:00.:00:04.

thought we were! I am surprised to find us in that place. Hopefully we

:00:05.:00:11.

will be on top next time. East Staffordshire, you need a feel`good

:00:12.:00:16.

factor. They are only slightly more happy than Wolverhampton. People are

:00:17.:00:20.

happy if we are confident about their families and jobs and feeling

:00:21.:00:24.

safe. In Burton we have had the lowest unemployment levels for five

:00:25.:00:28.

years. We have record falls in crime, that will make people happy.

:00:29.:00:33.

There is a disconnect with places like Wolverhampton and stalked

:00:34.:00:35.

because the economic process is not working. I could argue that they are

:00:36.:00:41.

all run by Labour councils. And the government that is failing to tackle

:00:42.:00:45.

the cost of living traces that is having a huge impact up and down the

:00:46.:00:53.

country. We will call that 15`15. My thanks to Shabana and Andrew.

:00:54.:00:56.

Next week, Felicity Norman will be here for the Green Party and Lorely

:00:57.:01:00.

Burt for the Liberal Democrats. I wonder if they see something of

:01:01.:01:03.

their own early campaigning zeal in the remarkable Malala Yousafzai, the

:01:04.:01:06.

Pakistani teenager shot by the Taliban for speaking out about

:01:07.:01:09.

educating girls? It's a year since she came to Birmingham for treatment

:01:10.:01:13.

and to start a new life. Inside Out tomorrow at 7:30pm here on BBC One

:01:14.:01:17.

in the West Midlands will reveal how she's adjusting.This though, is

:01:18.:01:18.

where free school area for into that

:01:19.:01:31.

Is Labour about to drop its support category. Thank you.

:01:32.:01:31.

Is Labour about to drop its support for High Speed 2, a rail line the

:01:32.:01:36.

party approved while in government? for High Speed 2, a rail line the

:01:37.:01:47.

these green shoots? These are all questions for The Week Ahead.

:01:48.:01:59.

So, HS2. Miss Flint wouldn't answer the question. She's in northern MP

:02:00.:02:04.

too. Ed Balls is comparing it to the Millennium Dome.

:02:05.:02:09.

too. Ed Balls is comparing it to the minute's silence for HS2? It will

:02:10.:02:13.

not be quite as crude as that. They will not stand up and say, we

:02:14.:02:19.

not be quite as crude as that. They senior Labour person said to me it

:02:20.:02:19.

would be a bit senior Labour person said to me it

:02:20.:02:21.

that Gordon Brown and Ed Balls set for the euro back in 97. They will

:02:22.:02:27.

be chucking lots of questions into the air, and the questions will

:02:28.:02:31.

create doubt, and will create the grounds for Labour to say, at some

:02:32.:02:38.

point, we think there is a much much better way of spending the money. It

:02:39.:02:43.

isn't ?42 billion, because that includes a contingency. Let's see

:02:44.:02:49.

what Peter Mandelson had to say about HS2. He was in the government

:02:50.:02:57.

when Labour supported it. Frankly, there was too much of the argument

:02:58.:03:01.

that if everyone else has got a high-speed train, we should have won

:03:02.:03:08.

too. Regardless of need, regardless of cost, and regardless of

:03:09.:03:13.

alternatives. As a party, to be frank, we didn't feel like being

:03:14.:03:19.

trumped by the zeal of the then opposition's support for the

:03:20.:03:25.

high-speed train. We wanted, if anything, to upstage them. So they

:03:26.:03:30.

didn't really need it, and we're only talking about ?50 billion. Why

:03:31.:03:37.

would you take a decision involving ?50 billion in a serious way? For

:03:38.:03:42.

David Cameron, if it becomes clear Labour is against it, he cannot

:03:43.:03:47.

proceed. He indicated last week that he wouldn't proceed if the certainty

:03:48.:03:52.

wasn't there. For Labour, HS2 is really a debate about the deficit by

:03:53.:03:56.

proxy. They think that if you don't go ahead with HS2, that releases

:03:57.:04:01.

tens of billions of pounds to spend on other things, such as public

:04:02.:04:05.

services, without going into boring. I don't think that works because

:04:06.:04:28.

there was a difference between cancelling something that already

:04:29.:04:30.

exists to pay for something else, and cancelling something that does

:04:31.:04:32.

not yet exist and will be paid for over decades to pay for something

:04:33.:04:35.

here and now. Can Labour do this? I know that the line will be, we are

:04:36.:04:38.

not going to build this railway because we are going to build

:04:39.:04:40.

200,000 houses a year. Can they do this without political cost? I think

:04:41.:04:43.

there will be political costs, but they will play this card of we have

:04:44.:04:47.

changed our mind. I think Cameron's line has been very clever, saying we

:04:48.:04:53.

cannot do it without labour. You can put it in two ways. Sorry, we cannot

:04:54.:04:58.

go ahead with it, but Labour has ruined your chance of prosperity, or

:04:59.:05:02.

they can tie themselves to it, and then Labour cannot attack it on

:05:03.:05:08.

great grounds when costs do spire. You can write Labour's script right

:05:09.:05:14.

now. They can say, if we were in charge, the financial management

:05:15.:05:22.

would be much better. This raises some really important questions for

:05:23.:05:27.

the government. They have utterly failed to make the case for HS2

:05:28.:05:33.

There is a real case to make. Between London and Birmingham it is

:05:34.:05:37.

about capacity not speed. North of Birmingham, it is about

:05:38.:05:42.

connectivity. It is a simple case to make, but it is only in the last

:05:43.:05:45.

month that they have been making that case. It shows really terrible

:05:46.:05:49.

complacency in the coalition that they haven't done that. We'll HS2

:05:50.:05:57.

happen or not? I think it will. For the reasons that Nick outlined,

:05:58.:06:01.

there is not of a constituency for it amongst Northern areas. -- there

:06:02.:06:10.

is enough of a constituency for it. There is private investment as well.

:06:11.:06:17.

It isn't like Heathrow. I say no, because I think Labour will drop

:06:18.:06:23.

their support for it. Caroline Flint said she was in favour of the

:06:24.:06:27.

concept of trains generally, but will it go further than that? It is

:06:28.:06:32.

difficult to see how it will go ahead if Labour will not support it

:06:33.:06:38.

after setting five tests that it clearly will not meet. Some will

:06:39.:06:45.

breathe a sigh of relief. Some will say, even in the 20th century, we

:06:46.:06:50.

cannot build a proper rail network. The economy was another big story of

:06:51.:06:56.

the week. We had those GDP figures. There is a video the Tories are

:06:57.:07:01.

releasing. The world premiere is going to be here. Where's the red

:07:02.:07:05.

carpet? It gives an indication of how the Tories will hand Mr Miliband

:07:06.:07:09.

and labour in the run-up to the election. Let's have a look at it.

:07:10.:07:43.

These graphics are even worse than the ones we use on our show! How on

:07:44.:07:49.

earth would you expect that to go viral? It did have a strange feel

:07:50.:07:58.

about it. It doesn't understand the Internet at all. Who is going to

:07:59.:08:02.

read those little screens between it? Put a dog in it! However,

:08:03.:08:14.

putting that aside, I have no idea that that is going to go viral. The

:08:15.:08:20.

Tories are now operating - and I say Tories rather than the coalition -

:08:21.:08:26.

on the assumption that the economy is improving and will continue to

:08:27.:08:30.

improve, and that that will become more obvious as 2014 goes on. We

:08:31.:08:36.

just saw their how they will fight the campaign. Yes, and at the

:08:37.:08:42.

crucial moment, you will reach the point where wages. To rise at a

:08:43.:08:47.

faster pace than inflation, and then people will start to, in the words

:08:48.:08:51.

of Harold Macmillan, feel that they have never had it so good. That is

:08:52.:08:56.

the key moment. If the economy is growing, there is a rule of thumb

:08:57.:09:05.

that the government should get a benefit. But it doesn't always work

:09:06.:09:08.

like that. The fundamental point here is that Ed Miliband has had a

:09:09.:09:11.

great month. He has totally set the agenda. He has set the agenda with

:09:12.:09:17.

something - freezing energy prices - that may not work. That video shows

:09:18.:09:21.

that the Conservatives want to get the debate back to the

:09:22.:09:25.

fundamentals. That this is a party that told us for three years that

:09:26.:09:32.

this coalition was telling us to -- was taking us to hell on a handcart.

:09:33.:09:37.

That doesn't seem to have happened. The energy price was a very clever

:09:38.:09:44.

thing, at the party conference season, which now seems years ago.

:09:45.:09:49.

They saw that the recovery was going to happen, so they changed the

:09:50.:09:55.

debate to living standards. Some economists are now privately

:09:56.:09:59.

expecting growth to be 3% next year, which was inconceivable for five

:10:00.:10:04.

months ago. If growth is 3% next year, living standards will start to

:10:05.:10:07.

rise again. Where does Labour go then? I would go further, and say

:10:08.:10:13.

that even though Ed Miliband has made a small political victory on

:10:14.:10:18.

living standards, it hasn't registered in the polls. Those polls

:10:19.:10:25.

have been contracted since April -- have been contracting since April.

:10:26.:10:29.

That macro economic story matters more than the issue of living

:10:30.:10:34.

standards. The interesting thing about the recovery is it confounds

:10:35.:10:37.

everybody. No one was predicting, not the Treasury, not the media not

:10:38.:10:44.

the IMF, not the academics, and the only people I can think of... I fit

:10:45.:10:51.

-- I thought they knew everything! The only people I know who did are

:10:52.:10:56.

one adviser who is very close to George Osborne, and the clever hedge

:10:57.:11:00.

fund is who were buying British equities back in January. Because

:11:01.:11:05.

the Treasury's record is so appalling, no one believe them, but

:11:06.:11:09.

they were saying around February, March this year, that by the end of

:11:10.:11:14.

the summer, the recovery would be gathering momentum. For once, they

:11:15.:11:22.

turned out to be right! They said that the economy would be going gang

:11:23.:11:26.

bust is! Where did the new Tory voters come from? I agree, if the

:11:27.:11:33.

economic recovery continues, the coalition will be stronger. But

:11:34.:11:42.

where will they get new voters from? For people who sign up to help to

:11:43.:11:46.

buy, they will be locked into nice mortgages at a low interest rate,

:11:47.:11:51.

and just as you go into a general election, if you are getting 3%

:11:52.:11:57.

growth and unemployment is down the Bank of England will have to review

:11:58.:12:00.

their interest rates. People who are getting nice interest rates now may

:12:01.:12:04.

find that it is not like that in a few months time. The point John

:12:05.:12:11.

Major was making implicitly was that Mrs Thatcher could speak to people

:12:12.:12:15.

on low incomes. John Major could not speak to them -- John Major could

:12:16.:12:20.

speak to them. But this coalition cannot speak to them. This idea

:12:21.:12:25.

about the reshuffle was that David Cameron wanted more Northern voices,

:12:26.:12:32.

more women, to make it look like it was not a party of seven men. When

:12:33.:12:38.

David Cameron became leader, John Major said, I do not speak very

:12:39.:12:42.

often, but when I do, I will help you, because I think you are good

:12:43.:12:47.

thing and I do not want to be like Margaret Thatcher. But that speech

:12:48.:12:51.

was clearly a lament for the party he believed that David Cameron was

:12:52.:12:56.

going to lead and create, but that isn't happening. And energy prices

:12:57.:13:02.

continue into this coming week. We have the companies going before a

:13:03.:13:06.

select committee. My information is they are sending along the secondary

:13:07.:13:11.

division, not the boss. How can they get along -- get away with that I

:13:12.:13:16.

got the letter through from British Gas this week explaining why my

:13:17.:13:21.

bills are going up, and at no point since this became a story have any

:13:22.:13:24.

of the big companies handled it well. I will have to leave it there.

:13:25.:13:30.

Make sure you pay your bill! That's it for today. The Daily Politics is

:13:31.:13:36.

back on BBC Two tomorrow. I will be back here on BBC One next Sunday.

:13:37.:13:43.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.

:13:44.:13:51.

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