01/12/2013 Sunday Politics West Midlands


01/12/2013

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne

:00:36.:00:44.

announces a ?50 cut to annual household energy bills. We'll talk

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to Lib Dem president Tim Farron ahead of the Chancellor's mini

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budget this week. Net immigration is up for the first

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time in two years. Labour and the Tories say they want to bring it

:00:57.:01:00.

down, but how? Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper joins us for the

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Sunday Interview. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will

:01:11.:01:13.

be for some cornflakes to get to the top. The Mayor of London says

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inequality and greed are essential to spur economic activity. The

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Millions of pounds intended to help people who have fallen on hard times

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remains capital is now a crisis. Another

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week, another strategy? Can this one deliver?

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And with me throughout today's programme, well, we've shaken the

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packet and look who's risen to the top. Or did we open it at the

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bottom? Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates. All three will be

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tweeting throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp. So, after

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weeks in which Ed Miliband's promise to freeze energy prices has set the

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Westminster agenda, the Coalition Government is finally coming up with

:02:09.:02:11.

its answer. This morning the Chancellor George Osborne explained

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how he plans to cut household energy bills by an average of fifty quid.

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What we're going to do is roll back the levees that are placed by

:02:19.:02:22.

government on people's electricity bills. This will mean that for the

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average bill payer, they will have ?50 of those electricity and gas

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bills. That will help families. We are doing it in the way that

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government can do it. We are controlling the cost that families

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incurred because of government policies. We are doing it in a way

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that will not damage the environment or reduce our commitment to dealing

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with climate change. We will not produce commit men to helping

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low-income families with the cost of living. Janan, we are finally seeing

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the coalition begin to play its hand in response to the Ed Miliband

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freeze? They have been trying to respond for almost ten weeks and

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older responses have been quite fiddly. We are going to take a bit

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of tax year, put it onto general taxation, have a conversation with

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the energy companies, engineered a rebate of some kind, this is not

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very vivid. The advantage of the idea that they have announced

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overnight is that it is clear and it has a nice round figure attached to

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it, ?50. The chief of staff of President Obama, he said, if you are

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explaining, you're losing. The genius of this idea is that it does

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not require explanation. He would not drawn this morning on what

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agreement he had with the energy companies, and whether this would

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fall through to the bottom of the bill, but the way he spoke, saying,

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I am not going to pre-empt what the energy companies say, that suggests

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he has something up his sleeve. Yes, I thought so. The energy companies

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have made this so badly for so long. It would be awful if he announced

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this and the energy companies said, we are going to keep this money for

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ourselves. I do not think he is that stupid. The energy companies have an

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incentive to go along with this, don't they? My worry is that I am

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not sure how much it will be within the opinion polls. I think people

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might expect this now, it is not a new thing, it is not an exciting

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thing. Say in the markets, they may have priced the ten already. If by

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Thursday of this week, he is able to say, I have a ?50 cut coming to your

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bill. The energy companies have guaranteed that this will fall

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through onto your energy bill, and they have indicated to me that they

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themselves will not put up energy prices through 2014, has he shot the

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Ed Miliband Fox? I think he has a couple of challenges. It is still

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very hard. This is an answer for the next 12 months but did is no chance

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announced that Labour will stop saying they are going to freeze

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prices in the next Parliament. He will say, I have not just frozen

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them, I have done that as well and I have cut them. When people look at

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their energy bills, they are going up by more than ?50. This is a

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reduction in the amount that they are going up overall. Year on 08

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will be for George Osborne. He will have to come up with something this

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time next year. The detail in the Sunday papers reveals that George

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Osborne is trying to get the energy companies to put on bills that ?50

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has been knocked off your bill because of a reduction by the

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government. He is trying to get the energy companies to do his political

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bidding for him. It will be interesting to see if they go along

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with that, because then we will know how cross the arm with Ed Miliband.

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Let's get another perspective. Joining me now from Kendal in the

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Lake District is the president of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Good morning. Let me ask you this, the

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coalition is rowing back on green taxes, I do comfortable with that or

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is it something else you will rebel against? I am very comfortable with

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the fact we are protecting for the money is going. I am open to where

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the money comes from. The notion that we should stop insulating the

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homes of elderly people or stop investing in British manufacturing

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in terms of green industry, that is something that I resolutely oppose,

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but I am pleased that the funding will be made available for all that.

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You cannot ignore the fact that for a whole range of reasons, mostly

:07:04.:07:07.

down to the actions of the energy companies, you have prices that are

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shooting up and affecting lots of people, making life hard. You cannot

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ignore that. If we fund the installation of homes for older

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people and others, if we protect British manufacturing jobs, and

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raise the money through general taxation, I am comfortable with

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that. It is not clear that is going to happen. It looks like the

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eco-scheme, whereby the energy companies pay for the installation

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of those on below-average incomes, they will spin that out over four

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years, not two years, and one estimate is that that will cost

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10,000 jobs. You're always boasting about your commitment to green jobs,

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how do square that? I do not believe that. The roll-out will be longer.

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The number of houses reached will be greater and that is a good thing. My

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take is that it will not affect the number of jobs. People talk about

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green levies. There has been disparaging language about that sort

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of thing. There are 2 million people in this country in the lowest income

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families and they get ?230 off their energy bills because of what isn't

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-- because of what is disparaging the refer to as green stuff, shall

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we call it. There will be more properties covered. We both know

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that your party is being pushed into this by the Tories. You would not be

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doing this off your own bad. You are in coalition with people who have

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jettisoned their green Prudential is? -- credentials. You have made my

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point quite well. David Cameron's panicked response to this over the

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last few months was to ditch all the green stuff. It has been a job to

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make sure that we hold him to his pledges and the green cord of this

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government. That is why we are not scrapping the investment, we are

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making sure it is funded from general taxation. I am talking to

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you from Kendal. Lots of people struggle to pay their energy bills.

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But all these things pale into insignificance compared to the

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threat of climate change and we must hold the Prime Minister to account

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on this issue. Argue reconciled to the idea that as long as you're in

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coalition with the Tories you will never get a mansion tax? I am not

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reconciled to it. We are trying to give off other tax cut to the lowest

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income people. What about the mansion tax? That would be

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potentially paid for by another view source of finance. That would be

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that the wealthy... We know that is what you want, but you're not going

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to get that? We will keep fighting for it. It is extremely important.

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We can show where we will get the money from. I know that is the

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adamant. That is not what I asked you. Ed Balls and Labour run in

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favour of a mansion tax, have you talked to them about it? The honest

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answer is I have not. It is interesting that they have come

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round to supporting our policy having rejected it in power. So if

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Labour was the largest party in parliament but not in power, you

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would have no problem agreeing with a mansion tax as part of the deal?

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If the arithmetic falls in that way and that is the will of the British

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people, fear taxes on those who are wealthiest, stuff that is fear,

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which includes wealth taxes, in order to fund more reductions for

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those people on lowest incomes, that is the sort of thing that we might

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reach agreement on. You voted with Labour on the spare room subsidy.

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Again, that would be job done in any future coalition talks with Labour,

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correct? I take the view that the spare room subsidy, whilst entirely

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fail in principle, in practice it has caused immense hardship. I want

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to see that changed. There are many people in government to share my

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view on that. So does Labour. The problem was largely caused Labour

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because they oversaw an increase in housing costs both 3.5 times while

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they were in power. The government was forced into a position to tidy

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up an appalling mess that Labour left. You voted with Labour against

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it, and also, you want... No, I voted with the party conference.

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Let's not dance on the head of the ten. Maybe they voted with me. -- on

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the head of a pin. You are also in favour of a 50% top rate of income

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tax, so you and Labour are that one there as well? No, I take the view

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that the top rate of income tax is a fluid thing. All taxation levels are

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temporary. Nick Clegg said that when the 50p rate came down to 45, that

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was a rather foolish price tag George Osborne asked for in return

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for as increasing the threshold and letting several million people out

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of paying income tax at the bottom. So you agree with Labour? In favour

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of rising the tax to 50p. I take the view that we should keep our minds

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open on that. It is not the income tax level that bothers me, it is

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whether the wealthy pay their fresh air. If that can be done through

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other taxes, then that is something that I am happy with. -- their fair

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share. Given your position on the top rate of tax, on the spare room

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subsidy, how does the prospect of another five years of coalition with

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the Tories strike you? The answer is, you react with whatever you have

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about you to what the electorate hand you. Whatever happens after the

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next election, you have got to respect the will of the people. Yes,

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but how do you feel about it? We know about this, I am asking for

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your feeling. Does your heart left or does your heart fall at the

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prospect of another five years with the Tories? My heart would always

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follow the prospect of anything other than a majority of Liberal

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Democrat government. Your heart must be permanently in your shoes then.

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Something like that, but when all is said and done, we accept the will of

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the electorate. When you stand for election, you have got to put up

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with what the electorate say. I have not found coalition as difficult as

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you might suggest. It is about people who have to disagree and

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agree to differ. You work with people in your daily life that you

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disagree with. It is what grown-ups do. A lot of people in your party

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think that your positioning yourself to be the left-wing candidate in a

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post-Nick Clegg leadership contest. They think it is blatant

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manoeuvring. One senior figure says, this is about you. Which bit of the

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sanctimonious, treacherous little man is there not to like? What can I

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see in response to that. My job is to promote the Liberal Democrats. I

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have to do my best to consider what I'd defend to be right. By and

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large, my position as an MP in the Lake District, but also as the

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president of the party, is to reflect the will of people outside

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the Westminster village. That is the important thing to do. Thank you for

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joining us. David Cameron has said he wants to get it down to the tens

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of thousands, Ed Miliband has admitted New Labour "got it wrong",

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and Nick Clegg wants to be "zero-tolerant towards abuse". Yes,

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immigration is back on the political agenda, with figures released

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earlier this week showing that net migration is on the rise for the

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first time in two years. And that's not the only reason politicians are

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talking about it again. The issue of immigration has come

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into sharp focus because of concerns about the number of remaining ins

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and Bulgarians that can come to the UK next year. EU citizenship grants

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the right to free movement within the EU. But when Bulgaria and

:16:39.:16:43.

Romania joined in 2007, the government took up its right to

:16:44.:16:46.

apply temporary restrictions on movement. They must be lifted

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apply temporary restrictions on end of this year. According to the

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2011 census, about one eyed 1 million of the population in England

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and Wales is made up of people from countries who joined the EU in 2004.

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The government has played down expectations that the skill of

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migration could be repeated. This week David Cameron announced new

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restrictions on the ability of EU migrants to claim benefits. That was

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two, send a message. That prompted criticism is that the UK risks being

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seen as a nasty country. Yvette Cooper joins me now for the Sunday

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interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics, Yvette Cooper. You

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criticised the coalition for not acting sooner on immigration from

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Romania and Bulgaria but the timetable for the unrestricted

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arrival in January was agreed under Labour many years ago, and given the

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battle that you had with the Polish and the Hungarians, what

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preparations did you make in power? We think that we should learn from

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some of the things that happened with migration. It would have been

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better to have transitional controls in place and look at the impact of

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what happened. But what preparations did you make in power? We set out a

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series of measures that the Government still had time to bring

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in. It is important that this should be a calm and measured debate. There

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was time to bring in measures around benefit restrictions, for example,

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and looking at the impact on the labour market, to make sure you do

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not have exploitation of cheap migrant Labour which is bad for

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everyone. I know that but I have asked you before and I am asking

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again, what did you do? We got things wrong in Government. I

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understand that I am not arguing. You are criticising them not

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preparing, a legitimate criticism, but what did you do in power? Well,

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I did think we did enough. Did you do anything? We signed the agency

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workers directive but too slowly. We needed measures like that. We did

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support things like the social chapter and the minimum wage, but I

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have said before that we did not do enough and that is why we

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recommended the measures in March. I understand that is what you did in

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opposition and I take that. I put the general point to you that given

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your failure to introduce controls on the countries that joined in

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2004, alone among the major EU economies we did that, should we not

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keep an embarrassed silence on these matters? You have no credibility. I

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think you have got to talk about immigration. One of the things we

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did not do in Government was discussed immigration and the

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concerns people have and the long-term benefits that we know have

:19:49.:19:56.

come from people who have come to Britain over many generations

:19:57.:19:58.

contributing to Britain and having a big impact. I think we recognise

:19:59.:20:01.

that there are things that we did wrong, but it would be irresponsible

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for us not to join the debate and suggest sensible, practical measures

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that you can introduce now to address the concerns that people

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have, but also make sure that the system is fair and managed.

:20:15.:20:17.

Immigration is important to Britain but it does have to be controlled

:20:18.:20:21.

and managed in the right way. Let's remind ourselves of your record on

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immigration. The chart you did not consult when in power. This is total

:20:26.:20:31.

net migration per year under Labour. 2.2 million of net rise in

:20:32.:20:35.

migration, more than the population of Birmingham, you proud of that? --

:20:36.:20:46.

twice the population. Are you proud of that or apologising for it? We

:20:47.:20:50.

set the pace of immigration was too fat and the level was too high and

:20:51.:20:55.

it is right to bring migration down. So you think that was wrong?

:20:56.:21:00.

Overruled have been huge benefits from people that have come to

:21:01.:21:05.

Britain and built our biggest businesses. -- overall. They have

:21:06.:21:10.

become Olympic medal winners. But because the pace was too fast, that

:21:11.:21:14.

has had an impact. That was because of the lack of transitional controls

:21:15.:21:18.

from Eastern Europe and it is why we should learn from that and have

:21:19.:21:23.

sensible measures in place now, as part of what has got to be a calm

:21:24.:21:28.

debate. These are net migration figures. They don't often show the

:21:29.:21:33.

full figure. These are the immigration figures coming in. What

:21:34.:21:37.

that chart shows is that in terms of the gross number coming into this

:21:38.:21:42.

country, from the year 2000, it was half a million a year under Labour.

:21:43.:21:48.

Rising to 600,000 by the time you were out of power. A lot of people

:21:49.:21:53.

coming into these crowded islands, particularly since most of them come

:21:54.:21:58.

to London and the South East. Was that intentional? Was that out of

:21:59.:22:03.

control? Is that what you are now apologising for? What we said was

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that the Government got the figures wrong on the migration from Eastern

:22:10.:22:12.

Europe. If you remember particularly there was the issue of what happened

:22:13.:22:16.

with not having transitional controls in place. The Government

:22:17.:22:22.

didn't expect the number of people coming to the country to be the way

:22:23.:22:26.

it was. And so obviously mistakes were made. We have recognised that.

:22:27.:22:31.

We have also got to recognise that this is something that has happened

:22:32.:22:34.

in countries all over the world. We travel and trade far more than ever.

:22:35.:22:39.

We have an increasingly globalised economy. Other European countries

:22:40.:22:43.

have been affected in the same way, and America, and other developing

:22:44.:22:47.

countries affected in the same way by the scale of migration. I am

:22:48.:22:52.

trying to work out whether the numbers were intentional or if you

:22:53.:22:57.

lost control. The key thing that we have said many times and I have

:22:58.:23:01.

already said it to you many times, Andrew, that we should have a

:23:02.:23:04.

transitional controls in place on Eastern Europe. I think that would

:23:05.:23:07.

have had an impact on them level of migration. We also should have

:23:08.:23:13.

brought in the points -based system earlier. We did bring that in

:23:14.:23:17.

towards the end and it did restrict the level of low skilled migration

:23:18.:23:21.

because there are different kinds of migration. University students

:23:22.:23:24.

coming to Britain brings in billions of pounds of investment. On the

:23:25.:23:28.

other hand, low skilled migration can have a serious impact on the

:23:29.:23:32.

jobs market, pay levels and so on at the low skilled end of the labour

:23:33.:23:38.

market. We have to distinguish between different kinds of

:23:39.:23:41.

migration. You keep trying to excuse the figures by talking about the

:23:42.:23:45.

lack of transitional controls. Can we skip the chart I was going to go

:23:46.:23:51.

to? The next one. Under Labour, this is the source of where migrants came

:23:52.:23:57.

from. The main source was not the accession countries or the remainder

:23:58.:24:00.

of Europe. Overwhelmingly they were from the African Commonwealth, and

:24:01.:24:05.

the Indian subcontinent. Overwhelmingly, these numbers are

:24:06.:24:10.

nothing to do with transitional controls. You can control that

:24:11.:24:13.

immigration entirely because they are not part of the EU. Was that a

:24:14.:24:19.

mistake? First of all, the big increase was in the accession

:24:20.:24:24.

groups. Not according to the chart. In terms of the increase, the

:24:25.:24:28.

changes that happened. Secondly, in answer to the question that you just

:24:29.:24:32.

asked me, we should also have introduced the points -based system

:24:33.:24:36.

at an earlier stage. Thirdly there has been a big increase in the

:24:37.:24:40.

number of university students coming to Britain and they have brought

:24:41.:24:43.

billions of pounds of investment. At the moment the Government is not

:24:44.:24:47.

distinguishing, it is just using the figure of net migration. And that is

:24:48.:24:51.

starting to go up again, as you said in the introduction, but the problem

:24:52.:24:55.

is that it treats all kinds of migration is aimed. It does not

:24:56.:24:59.

address illegal immigration, which is a problem, but it treats

:25:00.:25:04.

university graduates coming to Britain in the same way as low

:25:05.:25:08.

skilled workers. If Labour get back into power, is it your ambition to

:25:09.:25:13.

bring down immigration? We have already said it is too high and we

:25:14.:25:17.

would support measures to bring it down. You would bring it down? There

:25:18.:25:22.

is something called student visas, which is not included in the

:25:23.:25:26.

figures, and it does not include university graduates, and it is a

:25:27.:25:31.

figure that has increased substantially in recent years. They

:25:32.:25:41.

come for short-term study but they do not even have to prove that they

:25:42.:25:44.

come for a college course. They do not even have to have a place to

:25:45.:25:46.

come. Those visas should be restricted to prevent abuse of the

:25:47.:25:49.

system and that is in line with a recommendation from the Inspectorate

:25:50.:25:51.

and that is the kind of practical thing that we could do. Can you give

:25:52.:25:55.

us a ballpark figure of how much immigration would fall? You have

:25:56.:26:00.

seen the mess that Theresa May has got into with her figures. She made

:26:01.:26:04.

a target that it is clear to me that she will not meet. I think that is

:26:05.:26:27.

right. She will not meet it. Can you give as a ballpark figure by which

:26:28.:26:30.

we can judge you? If she had been more sensible and taken more time to

:26:31.:26:33.

listen to experts and decide what measures should be targeted, then

:26:34.:26:36.

she would not be in this mess. You cannot give me a figure? She has

:26:37.:26:38.

chosen net migration. She has set a target, without ifs and buts. I

:26:39.:26:41.

think it is important not to have a massive gap between the rhetoric and

:26:42.:26:44.

reality. Not to make promises on numbers which are not responsible.

:26:45.:26:47.

OK, you won't give me a figure. Fine. Moving on to crime. 10,000

:26:48.:26:52.

front line police jobs have gone since 2010 but crime continues to

:26:53.:26:57.

fall. 7% down last year alone. When you told the Labour conference that

:26:58.:27:00.

you do not cut crime by cutting the police, you were wrong. I think the

:27:01.:27:06.

Government is being very complacent about what is happening to crime.

:27:07.:27:10.

Crime patterns are changing. There has been an exponential increase,

:27:11.:27:13.

and that is in the words of the police, in online crime. We have

:27:14.:27:22.

also seen, for example, domestic violence going up, but prosecutions

:27:23.:27:27.

dropping dramatically. There is a serious impact as a result of not

:27:28.:27:32.

having 10,000 police in place. You have talked about the exponential

:27:33.:27:36.

increase in online and economic crime. If those are the big growth

:27:37.:27:40.

areas, why have bobbies on the beat? That would make no difference. It is

:27:41.:27:46.

about an approach to policing that has been incredibly successful over

:27:47.:27:49.

many years, which Labour introduced, which is neighbourhood policing in

:27:50.:27:53.

the community is working hard with communities to prevent crime. People

:27:54.:27:57.

like to see bobbies on the beat but have you got any evidence that it

:27:58.:28:02.

leads to a reduction in crime? Interestingly, the Lords Stevens

:28:03.:28:07.

commission that we set up, they have reported this week and it has been

:28:08.:28:10.

the equivalent of a Royal commission, looking at the number of

:28:11.:28:16.

people involved in it. Their strong recommendation was that this is

:28:17.:28:18.

about preventing crime but also respectful law and order, working

:28:19.:28:22.

with communities, and so they strongly took the view with all of

:28:23.:28:25.

their expertise and the 30 different universities that they have involved

:28:26.:28:29.

with it, that on the basis of all that analysis, the right thing was

:28:30.:28:33.

to keep bobbies on the beat and not push them cars. Instinctively you

:28:34.:28:39.

would think it was true. More visible policing, less crime. But in

:28:40.:28:45.

all the criminology work, I cannot find the evidence. There is

:28:46.:28:48.

competing work about why there has been a 20 year drop in overall crime

:28:49.:28:52.

and everybody has different opinions on why that has happened. The point

:28:53.:28:56.

about neighbourhood policing is that it is broader than crime-fighting.

:28:57.:29:00.

It is about prevention and community safety. Improving the well-being of

:29:01.:29:07.

communities as well. Will you keep the elected Police Commissioners?

:29:08.:29:13.

Big sigh! What the report said was that the system is flawed. We raised

:29:14.:29:18.

concern about this at the beginning. You will remember at the elections,

:29:19.:29:23.

Theresa May's flagship policy, at the elections they cost ?100 million

:29:24.:29:29.

and there was 15% turnout. You have to have a system of accountability

:29:30.:29:34.

at the police. Three options were presented, all of which are forms.

:29:35.:29:39.

So you have to have reform. It is not whether to have reformed, it is

:29:40.:29:43.

which of those options is the best way to do it. The commission set out

:29:44.:29:54.

a series of options, and I thought that the preferable approach would

:29:55.:29:59.

be collaboration and voluntary mergers. We know they won't

:30:00.:30:03.

volunteer. There have been some collaboration is taking place. I

:30:04.:30:07.

think the issues with police and crime commissioners have fragmented

:30:08.:30:13.

things and made it harder to get collaboration between police

:30:14.:30:17.

forces. Everybody is asking this question, just before you go. What

:30:18.:30:22.

is it like living with a nightmare? Who does all the cooking, so I can't

:30:23.:30:28.

complain! Says Miliband people are wrong, he is a dream cook? He is!

:30:29.:30:37.

In a speech this week, Boris Johnson praised greed and envy as essential

:30:38.:30:41.

for economic progress, and that has got tongues wagging. What is the

:30:42.:30:46.

Mayor of London up to? What is his game plan? Does he even have a game

:30:47.:30:51.

plan and does he know if he has one? Flash photography coming up. Boris.

:30:52.:31:00.

In many ways I can leave it there. You'd know who I meant. And if you

:31:01.:31:03.

didn't, the unruly mop of blonde hair would tell you, the language.

:31:04.:31:14.

Ping-pong was invented on the dining tables of England. Somehow pulling

:31:15.:31:31.

off the ridiculous to the sublime. It is going to go zoink off the

:31:32.:31:35.

scale! But often having to speed away from the whiff-whaff of

:31:36.:31:40.

scandal. Boris, are you going to save your manage?

:31:41.:31:42.

There's always been a question about him and his as role as mayor and

:31:43.:31:45.

another prized position, as hinted to the Tory faithful this year at

:31:46.:31:48.

conference, discussing former French Prime Minister Alan Juppe. -- Alain

:31:49.:32:00.

Juppe. He told me he was going to be the mayor of Bordeaux. I think he

:32:01.:32:05.

may have been mayor well he was Prime Minister, it is the kind of

:32:06.:32:09.

thing they do in funds -- AvD in France. It is a good idea, if you

:32:10.:32:17.

ask me. But is it a joke? He is much more ambitious. Boris wants to be

:32:18.:32:22.

Prime Minister more than anything else. Perhaps more than he wants to

:32:23.:32:28.

be made of London. The ball came loose from the back of the scrum. Of

:32:29.:32:36.

course it would give great thing to have a crack at, but it is not going

:32:37.:32:42.

to happen. He might be right. First, the Conservatives have a leader,

:32:43.:32:45.

another Old Etonian, Oxford, Bullingdon chap and he has the job

:32:46.:32:49.

Boris might like a crack at. What do you do with a problem like Boris? It

:32:50.:32:55.

is one of the great paradoxes of Tory politics that for Boris Johnson

:32:56.:33:02.

to succeed, David Cameron must feel. Boris needs David Cameron to lose so

:33:03.:33:05.

that he can stand a chance of becoming loser. -- becoming leader.

:33:06.:33:09.

And disloyalty is punished by Conservatives. Boris knows the man

:33:10.:33:11.

who brought down Margaret Thatcher. Michael Heseltine, who Boris

:33:12.:33:14.

replaced as MP for Henley, never got her job. In 1986, she took on the

:33:15.:33:20.

member for Henley, always a risky venture. And why might he make such

:33:21.:33:31.

a jibe, because he's won two more elections than the PM. Conservatives

:33:32.:33:36.

like a winner. Boris, against Robert expectations, has won the Mayor of

:33:37.:33:51.

London job twice. -- public. He might've built a following with the

:33:52.:33:53.

grassroots but he's on shakier ground with many Tory MPs, who see

:33:54.:33:57.

him as a selfish clown, unfit for high office. And besides, he's not

:33:58.:34:04.

the only one with king-sized ambition, and Boris and George are

:34:05.:34:07.

not close, however much they may profess unity. There is probably

:34:08.:34:16.

some Chinese expression for a complete and perfect harmony. Ying

:34:17.:34:21.

and yang. But in plain black and white, if Boris has a plan, it's one

:34:22.:34:24.

he can't instigate, and if David Cameron is PM in 2016, it may not be

:34:25.:34:29.

implementable. He'd need a seat and it wouldn't be plain sailing if he

:34:30.:34:36.

did make a leadership bid. My leadership chances, I think I may

:34:37.:34:40.

have told you before, or about as good as my chances of ying

:34:41.:34:45.

reincarnated as a baked bean. Which is probably quite high. So if the

:34:46.:34:49.

job you want with Brown-esque desire is potentially never to be yours

:34:50.:34:55.

what do you do? He is, of course, an American citizen by birth. He was

:34:56.:35:01.

born in New York public hospital, and so he is qualified to be

:35:02.:35:06.

President of the United States. And you don't need an IQ over 16 to find

:35:07.:35:10.

that the tiniest bit scary. Giles Dilnot reporting. Helen Lewis,

:35:11.:35:16.

Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates are here. Is there a plan for Boris, and

:35:17.:35:23.

if so, what is it? I think the plan is for him to say what he thinks the

:35:24.:35:27.

Tory activist base wants to hear just now. He knows that in 18 months

:35:28.:35:33.

time they can disown it. I think he is wrong, the way the speech has

:35:34.:35:38.

played has a limited number of people. He has cross-party appeal.

:35:39.:35:44.

He has now reconfirmed to people that the Tories are the nasty party

:35:45.:35:47.

and they have been pretending to be modernised. Is it not the truth that

:35:48.:35:55.

he needs David Cameron to lose the 2015 election to become leader in

:35:56.:36:00.

this decade? It is very interesting watching his fortunes wax and wane.

:36:01.:36:06.

It always seems to happen in inverse proportion to how well David Cameron

:36:07.:36:10.

is doing in front of his own party. There is no small element of

:36:11.:36:14.

strategy about what we are doing here. The problem with Boris is that

:36:15.:36:19.

he's popular with the country, but not with the party's MPs and its

:36:20.:36:25.

hard-core supporters. This was an appeal to the grassroots this week.

:36:26.:36:29.

He is not the only potential candidate. If we were in some kind

:36:30.:36:37.

of circumstance where Boris was a runner to replace Mr Cameron, who

:36:38.:36:42.

with the other front the? I think it will skip a generation. The recent

:36:43.:36:51.

intake was ideological assertive. I do not buy the idea that it will be

:36:52.:36:57.

Jeremy Hunt against Michael Gove. I then, that generation will be

:36:58.:37:04.

tainted by being in government. It is interesting, what is he trying to

:37:05.:37:11.

pull? He is ideological. He does not believe in many things, but he

:37:12.:37:14.

believes in a few things quite deeply, and one is the idea of

:37:15.:37:19.

competition, both in business and academic selection. He has never

:37:20.:37:23.

been squeamish about expressing that. We do make mistakes sometimes,

:37:24.:37:33.

assuming he is entirely political. Look at all the Northern voters who

:37:34.:37:37.

will not vote for the Tories even though they are socially or economic

:37:38.:37:44.

the Conservatives. I do not think he helps. Who in the Tories would

:37:45.:37:50.

help? That is a tough question. To reason me has also been speaking to

:37:51.:38:00.

the hard right. -- Theresa May. I have been out with him at night. It

:38:01.:38:04.

is like dining with a film star. People are queueing up to speak to

:38:05.:38:09.

him. Educational selection is one of the few areas that he can offer. He

:38:10.:38:15.

has gone liberal on immigration, as are made of London would have to.

:38:16.:40:24.

We have moved quickly as a counsel...

:40:25.:40:36.

Councillor Darren Cooper is the Labour Leader of Sandwell Council in

:40:37.:40:39.

the Black Country, which has some of the most deprived communities in

:40:40.:40:42.

Britain. Including in Oldbury, where 400 jobs are to go, plus 550 others

:40:43.:40:46.

in Stoke`on`Trent, as part of the radical restructuring by the

:40:47.:40:48.

German`owned energy giant Npower. It's one of the UK's big six gas and

:40:49.:40:52.

electricity suppliers, who've all felt the heat lately because of

:40:53.:40:54.

inflation busting increases in charges. The firm say outsourcing to

:40:55.:40:58.

India what they call back office work, like checking metre readings

:40:59.:41:00.

against customer bills, will help them deliver the sort of service

:41:01.:41:03.

their customers deserve. The news brought swift reactions from our

:41:04.:41:06.

political leaders. This is one of the big six energy companies. They

:41:07.:41:09.

are making millions out of this. It seems as though bad news hits on

:41:10.:41:15.

tops of bad news. In more affluent areas there is a big distance

:41:16.:41:26.

between one side of government and the other. We have a real policy

:41:27.:41:30.

that the economy needs to grow and we need to attract jobs and their

:41:31.:41:37.

artist connectors between getting skills that are relating to jobs

:41:38.:41:42.

that we are trying to attract, which we have a real drive and passion to

:41:43.:41:49.

make it a fantastic future for our population. There are reasons to be

:41:50.:41:57.

more optimistic. We have heard that job creation is running faster in

:41:58.:42:01.

this part of the country than any other. 5.5%. Way ahead of the

:42:02.:42:09.

national average. Absolutely, but it is a fragile situation, and the

:42:10.:42:17.

slightest thing seems to tip people over the edge. That is what we have

:42:18.:42:20.

to be careful about. I want people back in work, people want to get

:42:21.:42:27.

back in work, and at the mouth of the welfare system.

:42:28.:42:33.

Coming up a little later: What's got 50,000 pages and weighs a tonne? The

:42:34.:42:41.

HS2 Bill, that's what, including supporting documents of course

:42:42.:42:43.

formally presented in Parliament last week. But how much political

:42:44.:42:46.

traction will it really deliver? That will be another of our talking

:42:47.:42:51.

points. Research exclusively for Sunday

:42:52.:42:54.

Politics Midlands shows millions of pounds set aside to help people

:42:55.:42:56.

struggling with acute financial hardship is lying untouched. The

:42:57.:43:04.

Government allocates the money for councils to help people who've

:43:05.:43:07.

fallen on hard times with life's essentials, including food, fuel,

:43:08.:43:11.

furniture, clothes and shoes. We asked 20 of our local authorities

:43:12.:43:14.

how much of this money they had used. Answer, in most places, a tiny

:43:15.:43:20.

fraction, even at a time of such hardship for so many people.

:43:21.:43:35.

Carrie and her two children moved to Staffordshire in the summer, with

:43:36.:43:39.

their pet rabbits. Desperately short of money she turned to her local

:43:40.:43:43.

council for help to buy furniture for her new home. I had absolutely

:43:44.:43:49.

nothing. I'll we had to wear the clothes on our backs. `` all we

:43:50.:44:08.

had. Carrie applied to Stafforshire's Local Crisis Support

:44:09.:44:11.

Scheme for help but received nothing. She had to turn to a

:44:12.:44:19.

charity for help. Local councils took over responsibility for

:44:20.:44:22.

providing this help from the government in April under the

:44:23.:44:25.

Welfare Reform Act. So how much has been spent on hand`outs from places

:44:26.:44:28.

like this so far? The 20 local councils we approached

:44:29.:44:31.

have ?21 million available this year. Since April they've handed out

:44:32.:44:35.

just over ?2 million in total, around 11% of the overall budget.

:44:36.:44:40.

Among the lowest was Staffordshire County Council, which Carrie applied

:44:41.:44:45.

to. It's given out less than 2% of the ?1.5 million it has available.

:44:46.:44:49.

The city council here in Stoke wasn't far behind. In Birmingham

:44:50.:44:54.

alone, ?7 million remains unclaimed. The help is not given as cash.

:44:55.:44:57.

Councils usually hand out food parcels or fuel vouchers. So what's

:44:58.:45:01.

going on here? Are councils being tight fisted? Do people not know

:45:02.:45:04.

about this scheme? And more importantly, what are the

:45:05.:45:11.

consequences? It is possible that the bar might have been set too high

:45:12.:45:19.

initially, and that has also lead to people not applying, because they

:45:20.:45:22.

don't think their circumstances are serious enough. But I think probably

:45:23.:45:26.

the most significant factor is the fact that virtually no local

:45:27.:45:35.

authority is offering cash. In Stoke, the council has handed out

:45:36.:45:39.

just under 3% of its budget, and knows there's a problem, so is

:45:40.:45:42.

desperately trying to promote its scheme better. I did ask that it was

:45:43.:45:47.

addressed and treated as a matter of urgency, and it was treated as a

:45:48.:45:51.

matter of urgency, and I am pleased to say it looks like we are now well

:45:52.:45:54.

on the road to delivering the service to a lot more people here.

:45:55.:46:00.

The government says local councils are best placed to deliver this

:46:01.:46:04.

scheme, and says it's spent two years preparing them. Meanwhile,

:46:05.:46:12.

people like Carrie are missing out. And since Phil McCann compiled those

:46:13.:46:14.

figures using the Freedom of Information Act, a number of

:46:15.:46:17.

authorities have accelerated their distribution of crisis welfare

:46:18.:46:19.

assistance. Birmingham say they have now used almost half their

:46:20.:46:22.

allocation. And we're also joined here today by Tim Nicholls from the

:46:23.:46:25.

campaigning charity, the Child Poverty Action Group. Given that

:46:26.:46:32.

there is such widespread hardship at the moment, it seems really quite

:46:33.:46:35.

surprising, the level that this is being passed on to the people who

:46:36.:46:45.

need it fast seems so slow. This money is given to the government by

:46:46.:46:50.

the `` from the government to local authorities for families in crisis.

:46:51.:46:54.

We think what is going on might partly be to do that `` with the

:46:55.:47:04.

quality of information provided by local authorities, but perhaps a

:47:05.:47:08.

more worrying thing, we asked governments to ring fence this money

:47:09.:47:12.

within council budgets, but they did not do that. It may be that in some

:47:13.:47:17.

places that money is being spirited away to other things. There is an

:47:18.:47:24.

obvious... The discretion of local authorities use it as an eight C

:47:25.:47:30.

fit. Do you think `` as they see fit. Do you think they are

:47:31.:47:33.

deliberate dragging their feet? Is good to hear that some councils are

:47:34.:47:38.

doing more to try and improve the delivery. I tried last week going to

:47:39.:47:47.

the website and signing up with two different councils will stop good

:47:48.:47:53.

points and not so good points for both. In Warwickshire, UK could be

:47:54.:47:59.

clearer on the `` you could be clearer on the website. We will

:48:00.:48:06.

bring the Council leaders back in on this in a second. Surely it makes

:48:07.:48:10.

sense from the point of the view of the government to localize this

:48:11.:48:15.

service, and if we are talking about switching from cash assistance to

:48:16.:48:20.

goods like food and fuel as shoes and clothes, it is better to

:48:21.:48:25.

decentralize its to local authorities to handle these sorts of

:48:26.:48:29.

materials. There are are pros and cons to this. One of the big

:48:30.:48:34.

difficulties at the moment is, because the government set to local

:48:35.:48:37.

authorities, you can do it your own way in every area, it becomes

:48:38.:48:45.

incredibly confusing. We are an advice providing organisation. It

:48:46.:48:48.

was easy for us before this because everybody knew you went to job

:48:49.:48:54.

centre plus. Now there are schemes all over the place and it is

:48:55.:48:58.

confusing for families. The government has said it has worked

:48:59.:49:01.

with families for two years to get them up to speed before the new

:49:02.:49:05.

system can end. Of course they needed to be rocked up to speeds. It

:49:06.:49:12.

does not mean it is the right choice. In Scotland, they decided at

:49:13.:49:16.

the Scottish Government that they would just take that budget and keep

:49:17.:49:21.

it as a whole and do it as a national scheme as the most

:49:22.:49:24.

effective way. Quite critical of your authorities among others, and

:49:25.:49:30.

looking at Sandwell's record, 12%, which, given the level of hardship

:49:31.:49:35.

we are talking about, you can understand what authorities like

:49:36.:49:42.

yours are being accused of being tightfisted. We have got a new

:49:43.:49:50.

scheme that has been introduced since April. Initially, it did not

:49:51.:49:54.

take off very well despite all of the really good advertising that we

:49:55.:49:59.

did with it. It is beginning to increase it now. The latest figures

:50:00.:50:04.

suggest there has been an increase. The bottom line is that we have been

:50:05.:50:07.

trying to target those people who are most vulnerable. It is a hand up

:50:08.:50:13.

not a hand`out. Meantime in Warwickshire, we have seen figures

:50:14.:50:20.

as little as 8%. I know that is a better off area, but that looks very

:50:21.:50:26.

tight, doesn't it? I think it has changed since the Freedom of

:50:27.:50:30.

Information. The figures would now be 20%. I think it is a changed

:50:31.:50:38.

scheme. It went through Works and pensions before and now it comes to

:50:39.:50:42.

local authorities. The fundamental changes, we are not handing out

:50:43.:50:47.

cash, we are handing out vouchers, and we are, in some cases,

:50:48.:50:54.

purchasing, that we do it through third parties, through charitable

:50:55.:50:56.

organisations and threw the voluntary sectors, and they are part

:50:57.:51:03.

of our vehicle of information. We have ring fenced this figure even

:51:04.:51:10.

Warwickshire. It is not going into the sinking file. Is the obvious

:51:11.:51:15.

suspicion that you are not being overzealous in getting the message

:51:16.:51:19.

across and you could squirrel it away and use it for your own

:51:20.:51:27.

purposes? We have had a pretty vigorous campaign since this was

:51:28.:51:31.

introduced. It should be a national scheme. Local authorities shouldn't

:51:32.:51:37.

be doing it. I thought you would want more responsibilities given to

:51:38.:51:42.

local communities. Yes, but the bottom line is, you get all these

:51:43.:51:46.

differing views and schemes all over the country, so somebody in a

:51:47.:51:50.

genuine crisis could go to work sure and get a different type of help as

:51:51.:51:55.

opposed to coming to Sandwell. It should be run nationally. Would you

:51:56.:52:03.

ring fence the money? We have already ring fenced the money. If it

:52:04.:52:09.

doesn't all get used up this year, we will use it in other ways to

:52:10.:52:13.

enhance those people who are desperately in need. Final word from

:52:14.:52:18.

you. What do you make of the answers? I would encourage them to

:52:19.:52:23.

do more. It is expensive to phone up with Sandwell. It cost me ?4 for the

:52:24.:52:28.

call. Both authorities have a barrier. You have to have been

:52:29.:52:31.

living in the borough for some time before you qualify. We could go on

:52:32.:52:36.

but we have to stop there. Thank you all for being with us.

:52:37.:52:42.

It paves the way for high speed trains between the Midlands and

:52:43.:52:46.

London. Laid end to end with its 50,000 pages of small print, the HS2

:52:47.:52:49.

Bill itself would probably stretch from Euston to Birmingham

:52:50.:52:54.

International. Not really of course, just Watford Junction. Coach loads

:52:55.:53:00.

of anti`HS2 campaigners descended on Westminster for a mass lobby of

:53:01.:53:07.

Parliament. But the Transport Secretary remains determined to

:53:08.:53:10.

press ahead, urged`on by some, but by no means all, of our local

:53:11.:53:15.

council leaders. The legislation allowing the

:53:16.:53:18.

government to build HS2 is more than 50,000 pages long, including its

:53:19.:53:24.

various support documents. As it went before Parliament, protesters

:53:25.:53:30.

gathered again to make their point. This is a bad policy and bad

:53:31.:53:34.

policies eventually fail. This is such a bad one, at some stage it is

:53:35.:53:39.

going to fall over. Campaigners from Solihull and parts of Warwickshire

:53:40.:53:41.

and Staffordshire, joined demonstrators from along the route

:53:42.:53:44.

from London to Birmingham and further north. We are here to stop

:53:45.:53:49.

this madness. ?50 billion on a railway line that nobody really

:53:50.:53:55.

needs. Tuesday, and the Transport Secretary

:53:56.:53:57.

appeared before the Transport Select Committee defending the high speed

:53:58.:54:00.

link, current price tag nearly ?43 billion. I believe it is absolutely

:54:01.:54:06.

essential for the long`term interests of the United Kingdom that

:54:07.:54:12.

is railway goes ahead. I am 100% confident that it is the right thing

:54:13.:54:15.

for the United Kingdom and it is the right thing for us to be able to

:54:16.:54:20.

impede in a global economy. `` compete. Hundreds of copies of

:54:21.:54:25.

the bill will now be distributed along the route. MPs will vote on it

:54:26.:54:29.

and if it's passed the government will then have the power to start

:54:30.:54:32.

buying up the necessary houses and land. Council leaders from the ten

:54:33.:54:37.

largest cities outside London have given full backing to the project,

:54:38.:54:41.

much to the delight of the Prime Minister, if not the campaigners,

:54:42.:54:47.

desperate to derail the HS2 Bill. Strong feelings all around. You

:54:48.:54:51.

heard your party colleague there say it is essential to the long`term

:54:52.:54:57.

interests of the UK. Your authority has come out against high`speed

:54:58.:55:02.

rail, so this is surely the point where you just look at the wider

:55:03.:55:06.

interests of Britain. Things have changed, haven't they? We're not

:55:07.:55:10.

talking about high`speed, we are about capacity. But we have started

:55:11.:55:16.

the whole debate and capacity, would we be looking at this route? Would

:55:17.:55:20.

we have changed the roots? We could have aligned it. It is too far down

:55:21.:55:28.

the tracks, if I could put it that way. This is the plan that there is

:55:29.:55:33.

and this is, capacity and all, this is the plan that we have and the

:55:34.:55:37.

government recommends. Absolutely true, but it goes through

:55:38.:55:42.

Warwickshire, 30 miles of work sure, and it doesn't stop at all. We get

:55:43.:55:50.

no benefit. The `` of Warwickshire. There are very good services through

:55:51.:55:57.

Coventry, rugby and on the other lines through Works Parkway. Whether

:55:58.:56:00.

we will see any change in that because of this... They say there

:56:01.:56:06.

are benefits to other services as well. We saw your party colleagues

:56:07.:56:12.

there in the line`up of city leaders. You have been taking him to

:56:13.:56:15.

task for his position on high`speed rail. I just point out that the big

:56:16.:56:22.

city leaders don't speak for us all. I am not opposed to the rail

:56:23.:56:30.

link that I am not particularly in favour of it and there are a couple

:56:31.:56:35.

of reasons for that. Can we really afford `` afford to spend ?42

:56:36.:56:40.

billion at the moment, when my local authority has already taken ?65

:56:41.:56:44.

billion out of its local budget, and I'm sure yours... The government

:56:45.:56:51.

points out that three times as much government spending on transport

:56:52.:56:55.

other than this link, even when this project goes ahead. That is all well

:56:56.:57:00.

and good, but you cannot get a bus in parts of Sandwell after six

:57:01.:57:03.

o'clock at night. I would suggest that we need to sort out our local

:57:04.:57:09.

transport infrastructure first, and I am also concerned about the impact

:57:10.:57:13.

that this will have on the rail net work. Locally, they are talking

:57:14.:57:18.

about capacity. Don't get me wrong. I am no expert on transport. But can

:57:19.:57:24.

we really afford it now? One of the points about this is, surely we know

:57:25.:57:30.

there is this the consensus at the top of British politics that

:57:31.:57:33.

realistically, the point should be that you just acknowledge that and

:57:34.:57:37.

concentrate on compensation for people affected by it and on the

:57:38.:57:42.

environmental and economic memorization of the effects of

:57:43.:57:49.

building. I have to look at how it impacts Warwickshire. We are going

:57:50.:57:53.

to be inundated with the impact of the construction over it many, many

:57:54.:57:58.

years. We are going to have communities on one side, and

:57:59.:58:03.

businesses. The impact on the economy of how they get to one side

:58:04.:58:07.

to the other, how do carers access people that they are supporting,

:58:08.:58:12.

this is going to have a cost. Our local authority, my taxpayers, I lot

:58:13.:58:17.

of money, a huge impact for many years. `` a lot of money. Thank you.

:58:18.:58:26.

Now, our regular round`up of the political week in the Midlands in 60

:58:27.:58:30.

seconds, brought to us this week by our Coventry and Warwickshire

:58:31.:58:32.

Drivetime presenter, Phil Upton. The region's aviation industry got a

:58:33.:58:38.

lift. 150 new jobs have been created at Birmingham airport in a huge new

:58:39.:58:43.

aircraft hangar. Not so good on the trains though.

:58:44.:58:47.

Delays on London Midland are up. Travel watchdogs say they should be

:58:48.:58:50.

stripped of the franchise if things don't improve.

:58:51.:58:52.

A police officer is to be charged with misconduct in a public office

:58:53.:58:55.

over the plebgate incident. Sutton Coldfield MP Andrew Mitchell told

:58:56.:58:59.

the media how the affair has had a huge impact on his life. I was spat

:59:00.:59:07.

at at the `` in the street and I lost my job after 25 years in

:59:08.:59:10.

Parliament asserting my constituents, my party and my

:59:11.:59:19.

country. `` serving my constituents. Demolition work has begun at the

:59:20.:59:22.

last deep coal mine in the Midlands. Daw Mill Colliery in Warwickshire

:59:23.:59:25.

closed in January after an underground fire. 650 jobs were

:59:26.:59:27.

lost. And a new survey from a group of

:59:28.:59:30.

urban local authorities says councils in the north and Midlands

:59:31.:59:34.

in are being hit much harder by budget cuts than those in the South.

:59:35.:59:38.

The Government dismiss these findings as scare`mongering, and a

:59:39.:59:41.

crude lobbying exercise. They say their funding arrangements do not

:59:42.:59:48.

favour anywhere over anywhere else. Yours is one of the urban

:59:49.:59:51.

authorities, and you have complained along with other counsel leaders.

:59:52.:59:57.

They say it is crude lobbying. That is a load of old Tosh if I am being

:59:58.:00:08.

honest. I speak it as I see things. The body that is working on this is

:00:09.:00:14.

one that many local authorities look up to. They are there statistics,

:00:15.:00:18.

the government has my own statistics point in this direction as well. You

:00:19.:00:24.

have said that the funding cuts are a fact of life. To that imply that

:00:25.:00:30.

you take a relaxed `` does that imply that you take a relaxed view

:00:31.:00:34.

on these cuts? I cannot spend money that I am not going to get. It is a

:00:35.:00:39.

huge challenge. None of us as a elected members entered this world

:00:40.:00:44.

to make these sort of stringent cuts that we will have to make, but it is

:00:45.:00:48.

happening and I have to face up to it. Warwickshire have always been in

:00:49.:00:55.

the lower quarter of funding. We will be following this. Thank you

:00:56.:00:59.

very much indeed. My thanks to Councillors Izzi Seccombe and Darren

:01:00.:01:05.

Cooper. This week will be dominated by the Chancellor's Autumn

:01:06.:01:08.

Statement, on Thursday, with George Osborne, we're told, in the role of

:01:09.:01:10.

Goldilocks. Neither overdoing the good news. Too hot. Nor being too

:01:11.:01:13.

gloomy about the long`term prospects, too cold.

:01:14.:01:16.

Midlands Today will be decoding what this all means for us here in our

:01:17.:01:23.

part of the country. That's at 6:30pm here on BBC

:01:24.:01:25.

touching on eugenics and things like that. That is all we have time for.

:01:26.:01:41.

Thank you. What rabbit has George Osborne got up his sleeve? And

:01:42.:01:46.

what's David Cameron up to in China? All questions for The Week Ahead. To

:01:47.:01:53.

help the panel led, we are joined by Kwasi Kwarteng, Tory MP. Welcome to

:01:54.:02:01.

the Sunday Politics. Why has the government been unable to move the

:02:02.:02:05.

agenda and to the broad economic recovery, and allowed the agenda to

:02:06.:02:09.

stay on Labour's ground of energy prices and living standards? Energy

:02:10.:02:15.

has been a big issue over the last few months but the autumn state and

:02:16.:02:19.

will be a wonderful opportunity to readdress where we are fighting the

:02:20.:02:22.

ground, the good economic news that we delivered. If you look at where

:02:23.:02:28.

Labour were earlier this year, people were saying they would they 5

:02:29.:02:32.

million people unemployed. They were saying that there should be a plan

:02:33.:02:43.

B. He is not in the Labour Party? Elements of the left were suggesting

:02:44.:02:46.

it. Peter Hain told me it would be up to 3 million people. Danny

:02:47.:02:51.

Blanchflower said it would be 5 million people. So we have got to

:02:52.:02:57.

get the economy back to the centre of the debate? Yes, the game we were

:02:58.:03:03.

playing was about the economy. That was the central fighting ground of

:03:04.:03:05.

the political debate. We were winning that battle. Labour have

:03:06.:03:11.

cleverly shifted it onto the cost of living. It is essential that the

:03:12.:03:15.

government, that George, talks about the economy. That has been its great

:03:16.:03:26.

success. I do not think this has been a week of admitting that Labour

:03:27.:03:29.

was right, plain cigarettes packaging, other issues. If you look

:03:30.:03:37.

at the big picture, where we are with the economy, we have the

:03:38.:03:43.

fastest growing economy in the G-7. Despite Labour's predictions, none

:03:44.:03:46.

of this has happened, none of the triple dip has happened. The British

:03:47.:03:53.

economy is on a good fitting. That is a good story for the government

:03:54.:03:58.

to bat on. You say that people have stopped talking about the economic

:03:59.:04:01.

recovery, but it is worse than that, people have stopped talking about

:04:02.:04:07.

the deficit? As long as people were talking about the deficit, the

:04:08.:04:11.

Tories were trusted. But people have forgotten about it. This country

:04:12.:04:17.

still spends ?100 billion more than it raises. Yes, I am of the view

:04:18.:04:23.

that the deficit, the national debt, is the biggest question facing

:04:24.:04:28.

this generation of politicians. You are right to suggest that the

:04:29.:04:31.

Conservative Party was strong on this. That head, not deficit, is not

:04:32.:04:38.

going to come down in the foreseeable future? It is rising.

:04:39.:04:44.

This is a test that George Osborne is not going to pass. We know what

:04:45.:04:48.

is coming in the Autumn Statement, it is lots of giveaways, paying for

:04:49.:04:52.

free school meals, paying for fuel duty subsidies. We are still talking

:04:53.:04:58.

about the cost of living, not changing it actively wider economy.

:04:59.:05:04.

There might be extra money for growth but it is not clear what will

:05:05.:05:11.

happen to that. If it is time for giveaways, let's speak about Labour.

:05:12.:05:14.

I have never been a fan of giveaways. Fiscal prudence is what

:05:15.:05:22.

our watchword should be. Look at the headlines. Each time, the deficit

:05:23.:05:27.

figures, the debt figures, were always worse than predicted. This

:05:28.:05:32.

year it will be significantly better. I think that is significant.

:05:33.:05:38.

Any kind of recovery is probably better than no recovery at all. When

:05:39.:05:44.

you look at this recovery, it is basically a consumer spending boom.

:05:45.:05:49.

Consumer spending is up, business investment is way down compared with

:05:50.:05:56.

2008, and exports, despite a 20% devaluation, our flat. Let's get one

:05:57.:06:02.

thing straight, it is a recovery. Any recovery is better than no

:06:03.:06:08.

recovery. Now we can have a debate about, technical debate about the

:06:09.:06:14.

elements of the recovery. It is not technical, it is a fact. There is

:06:15.:06:19.

evidence that there is optimism in terms of what are thinking...

:06:20.:06:25.

Optimism? If I am optimistic about the economy, I am more likely to

:06:26.:06:31.

spend money and invest in business. So far you have not managed that?

:06:32.:06:37.

Exports have not done well either? Exports are not a big section of the

:06:38.:06:41.

British economy. But of course, they are important. But given where we

:06:42.:06:47.

were at the end of last year, no economist was saying that we would

:06:48.:06:52.

be in this robust position today. That is true, in terms of the

:06:53.:07:00.

overall recovery. Now the PM loves to "bang the drum abroad for British

:07:01.:07:03.

business" and he's off to China this evening with a plane-load of British

:07:04.:07:06.

business leaders. And it's not the first time. Take a look at this.

:07:07.:07:37.

Well, you might not think exports unimportant, but clearly the Prime

:07:38.:08:03.

Minister and the Chancellor do. They are important, but they are not what

:08:04.:08:08.

is driving the growth at the moment. We used to talk about the need for

:08:09.:08:13.

export led recovery is, that is why the Prime Minister is going to

:08:14.:08:17.

China. Absolutely, and he's doing the right thing. Do we have any

:08:18.:08:22.

evidence that these tend of trips produce business? The main example

:08:23.:08:29.

so far is the right to trade the Chinese currency offshore. London

:08:30.:08:34.

has a kind of global primacy. London will be the offshore centre. Is that

:08:35.:08:39.

a good thing? I have no problem at all with this sort of policy. I do

:08:40.:08:43.

not think that Britain has been doing this enough compared with

:08:44.:08:47.

France and Germany in recent years. I am optimistic in the long term

:08:48.:08:53.

about this dish -- about British exports to China. China need machine

:08:54.:09:00.

tools and manufacturing products. In 20 years time, China will be buying

:09:01.:09:04.

professional groups, educational services, the things we excel at.

:09:05.:09:10.

All we need to do is consolidate our strengths, stand still and we will

:09:11.:09:16.

move forward. The worst thing we can do is reengineer the economy towards

:09:17.:09:18.

those services and away from something else. We have a lot of

:09:19.:09:25.

ground to make up, Helen? At one stage, it is no longer true, but at

:09:26.:09:30.

one stage you could say that we exported more to Ireland, a country

:09:31.:09:34.

of 4 million people, than we did to Russia, China, India, Brazil, all

:09:35.:09:43.

combined. I believe we form 1% of Chinese imports now. The problem is

:09:44.:09:49.

what you have to give up in exchange for that. It is a big problem for

:09:50.:09:54.

David Cameron's credibility that he has had to row back on his meeting

:09:55.:10:01.

with the Dalai llama. This trip, we have been in the deep freeze with

:10:02.:10:05.

China for a couple of years. This trip has come at a high cost. We

:10:06.:10:11.

have had to open up the City of London to Chinese banks without much

:10:12.:10:15.

scrutiny, we have had to move the date of the Autumn Statement, and

:10:16.:10:19.

there is no mention of human rights. It is awkward to deal with that, all

:10:20.:10:23.

in the name of getting up to where we were a few years ago. A month

:10:24.:10:31.

after strong anchor -- one month after Sri Lanka, where he apologised

:10:32.:10:34.

three human rights abuses, this is difficult to take. Do we have any

:10:35.:10:41.

idea what the Prime Minister hopes to do in China this time? I am not

:10:42.:10:45.

sure there is anything specific, but when you go to these countries,

:10:46.:10:50.

certainly in the Middle East China, they complain, why has the Prime

:10:51.:10:54.

Minister not come to see us? That is very important. High-level

:10:55.:10:59.

delegations from other countries go to these places because the addict

:11:00.:11:04.

-- because they are important export markets. You might look at the Prime

:11:05.:11:16.

Minister playing cricket over there, and wonder, what is that for? I do

:11:17.:11:21.

not mind the Prime Minister Rajoy cricket. This is a high visibility

:11:22.:11:25.

mission, chose that politicians in Britain care. You are part of the

:11:26.:11:31.

free enterprise group. It had all sorts of things on it like tax cuts

:11:32.:11:36.

for those on middle incomes or above the 40% bracket, tax cuts worth 16

:11:37.:11:43.

billion. You will get none of that on Thursday, we are agreed? No. But

:11:44.:11:49.

he does have two budgets between now and the election and if the fiscal

:11:50.:11:57.

position is using a little bit, he may have more leeway than it looked

:11:58.:12:00.

like a couple of months ago. Yes, from a free enter prise point of

:12:01.:12:06.

view, we have looked at the tax cuts that should be looked at. The 40p

:12:07.:12:12.

rate comes in at quite a low level for people who, in the south-east,

:12:13.:12:17.

do not feel particularly wealthy. They are spending a lot of money on

:12:18.:12:24.

commuting, energy bills. The Chancellor has been very open about

:12:25.:12:28.

championing this. He says that the 40p rate will kick in at a slightly

:12:29.:12:33.

higher rate. Labour had a bad summer and the opinion polls seem to be

:12:34.:12:37.

narrowing. Then they had a good hearty conference season. The best.

:12:38.:12:43.

Has the Labour lead solidified or increased the little, maybe up to

:12:44.:12:48.

eight points? If it is a good Autumn Statement, or the Tories start to

:12:49.:12:52.

narrow that lead by the end of the year? If they go into 2014 trailing

:12:53.:12:58.

by single digits, they cannot complain too much. That gives them

:12:59.:13:03.

18 months to chip away at Labour's lead. But do they do that chipping

:13:04.:13:08.

away by eight bidding Labour or do they let time take its course and

:13:09.:13:13.

let the economic recovery continue, maybe business investment joins

:13:14.:13:17.

consumer spending as a source of that recovery, and a year from now,

:13:18.:13:21.

household disposable income begins to rise? That is a better hope than

:13:22.:13:29.

engaging in a bidding war. Be assured, they will be highly

:13:30.:13:31.

political budgets. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is on BBC

:13:32.:13:35.

Two at midday all this week, except on Thursday when we'll start at

:13:36.:13:38.

10:45 to bring you live coverage and analysis of the Chancellor's Autumn

:13:39.:13:41.

Statement in a Daily Politics special for BBC Two and the BBC News

:13:42.:13:45.

Channel. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:46.:13:48.

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