08/12/2013 Sunday Politics West Midlands


08/12/2013

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The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

:00:39.:00:44.

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

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pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

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credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

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tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

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Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

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Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

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be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

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England's had on the capital, its politics and

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those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

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students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

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we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

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glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

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are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

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something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

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Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

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the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

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thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

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The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

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Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

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to announce some economic cheer It might be winter outside, but in

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the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

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moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

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statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

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everyone predicted. This time, he can stand up and say the economy is

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better than everybody predicted. A lot better.

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Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced

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economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,

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faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there

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were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,

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borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.

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But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough

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decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We

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will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the

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harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In

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other news, further cuts to government departments. The state

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pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s

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now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small

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businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,

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and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all

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big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.

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The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he

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could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes

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out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't

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think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

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am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

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is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

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Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

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In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

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red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

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than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

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about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

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terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

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the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

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very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

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time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

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now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

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hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

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significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

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just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

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worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

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revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

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budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

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much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

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it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

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years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

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close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

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graphics budget of my colleague, graphics budget of my colleague

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Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the

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viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is

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very worrying. Was this a watershed for George

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Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that

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it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are

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spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George

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Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about

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growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the

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next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But

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don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it

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all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.

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I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably

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a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his

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effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as

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well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech

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impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The

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takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people

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are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front

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bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be

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easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went

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through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the

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wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.

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It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and

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he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like

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business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price

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freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you

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say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,

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it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not

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Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed

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Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to

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disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little

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bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he

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went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,

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Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his

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performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

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Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

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defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

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books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

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do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

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the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

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in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

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is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

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in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

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your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

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your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

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Osborne has a superior argument. I Osborne has a superior argument I

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think Ed Balls will certainly trying his best, loud and clear, to make

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the case there is a cost of living crisis in this country and the

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Chancellor doesn't understand this. That was essentially the heat of the

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debate on the Autumn Statement day. One leading Labour MPs said to me

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that Ed Balls is always looking back, fixated with the rear-view

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mirror, that was the exact quote. A Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has

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a strong argument to make, unfortunately it was not made well

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in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

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performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

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letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

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Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

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spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

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battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

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were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

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fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

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nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

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have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

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evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

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making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

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have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

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concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

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getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

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Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

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big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

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setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

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What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

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measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement.

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measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement If

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you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

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get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

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doing that is on infrastructure We doing that is on infrastructure. We

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believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some

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of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business

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lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big

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structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned

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about the cost of living crisis. about the cost of living crisis

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That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

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all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

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to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

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cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

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You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

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correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

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going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

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include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

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cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

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in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good

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idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare

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issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be

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sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the

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careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme

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at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real

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question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.

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I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our

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plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the

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welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the

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long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare

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issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will

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not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the

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Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 015?

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is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple

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lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their

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short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the

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winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of

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benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state

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pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30,

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pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30 40

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year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

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writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

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have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

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if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

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pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

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of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long term

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Labour is in power? In our long-term cap we have to make sure... I'm

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talking about 2015-16. We haven t talking about 2015-16. We haven't

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seen the proposition the Government has put before us.

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You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true

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when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation

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does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax

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threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the

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freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit

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changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they

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could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors.

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could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors The

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VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My

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understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891

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figures have said people are ?8 1 worse off if you look at the tax and

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benefit changes since 2010. You have to look at wages and prices. The ISS

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confirmed our approach was broadly the right way of assessing what is

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happening. The Chancellor was saying, real household disposable

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incomes are rising. He is completely out of touch. Can you sum up the

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macro economic policy for Labour? Invest in the future, make sure we

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have the right approach for the long-term politicking. Tackle the

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cost of living crisis people are facing.

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Now, let's talk to the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid

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Javid. Discovery, underpinned by rising

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house prices, increasing personal debt, do you accept that is

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unsustainable? I accept the OBE are also said the

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reason why this country is facing more these challenges -- OBR.

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That is because we went through a Labour recession, the worst we have

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seen in 100 years. But do you accept that a recovery underpinned by these

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things I have just read out isn't sustainable? We set out a long-term

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plan for recovery, and again this week. We have shown with the tough

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decisions we have made already, the country can enjoy a recovery. There

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are still a lot of difficult decisions. The biggest risk are

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Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those --

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Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those - for

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both business investment and exports. Suddenly it is expected to

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rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround in investment. How is it credible? I

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have been in business before politics. Any business person

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listening will know, when you have gone through a recession, the

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deepest in 100 years, it will hit investment, profits, you can't make

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plans again until you have confidence in the economy. That is

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what this country is seeing now under this government. This is an

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assumption made independently. The fall in business investment is

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because of the recession. The forecast increases, 5% next year,

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and so on, it is based on the independent forecast. Based on fact.

:19:58.:20:03.

If you look at the investment plans of companies, this week, the

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Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land Rover has plans to create more

:20:12.:20:16.

jobs, these investment plans are coming through now because of the

:20:17.:20:20.

confidence generated by this government, such as the cut in

:20:21.:20:23.

corporation tax which Labour would increase. Are the export forecasts

:20:24.:20:31.

more credible? The 15 years, our share of world trade decline.

:20:32.:20:37.

Suddenly starting next year, it stops falling. That's not credible.

:20:38.:20:44.

I worked in finance the 20 years. I have yet to find any forecast which

:20:45.:20:51.

is fully right. Under Labour, we would have forecasts made by Gordon

:20:52.:20:56.

Brown who would announce he would hit all his targets. Now we have an

:20:57.:21:00.

independent system. Do you accept, if exports or

:21:01.:21:08.

business investment do not pick up, then a purely consumer led recovery

:21:09.:21:13.

is not sustainable? We need more than a consumer led recovery. We

:21:14.:21:17.

need consumer investment to go up. On Xbox, it is noticeable that

:21:18.:21:24.

experts are primarily down because the markets we trade with, the

:21:25.:21:26.

eurozone markets, are depressed. eurozone markets, are depressed

:21:27.:21:31.

Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in

:21:32.:21:37.

recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.

:21:38.:21:41.

non-EU countries, they are up 3 %. 120% to China. 100% to Russia.

:21:42.:21:48.

Will you keep the triple lock for the state pension beyond 2015? Yes,

:21:49.:21:56.

long term. That's why it is not part of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie

:21:57.:22:00.

cannot answer that question. It is straightforward.

:22:01.:22:09.

House prices are now rising ten times faster than average earnings.

:22:10.:22:15.

That's not good. House prices are rising, partly reflecting recovery.

:22:16.:22:21.

Ten times faster than average earnings, how can people afford to

:22:22.:22:25.

buy homes if it carries on? What you would hope, this is the evidence, if

:22:26.:22:30.

you look at the plans of the month companies, they are planning new

:22:31.:22:37.

homes which will mean that, as this demand spurs that investment, more

:22:38.:22:41.

homes will come about. We need to give people the means to buy those

:22:42.:22:45.

homes. We have introduced the help to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says

:22:46.:23:34.

it will start rising again but as household debt rises again Petr Cech

:23:35.:23:49.

reduces, -- as household debt reduces, we need to make sure there

:23:50.:23:55.

are checks in place. Wages have not been rising in real terms for quite

:23:56.:23:59.

some time. Over the next five years, even as the economy grows, by about

:24:00.:24:14.

15% according the OBR to the OBR -- but people will not benefit. These

:24:15.:24:21.

hard-working families will not share in the recovery. What is the best

:24:22.:24:26.

way to help those families? The government doesn't set wages. What

:24:27.:24:31.

we can do is influence the overall economy. We don't have a magic

:24:32.:24:40.

lever. Wages have been stagnating for five years. When will people get

:24:41.:24:44.

a proper salary? The best way for wage growth is a growing economy,

:24:45.:24:51.

more jobs. We have more people employed in Britain today than at

:24:52.:24:56.

any time in our history. The biggest risk to recovery is if we let Labour

:24:57.:25:02.

into the Treasury with more spending and more debt. Which got us into

:25:03.:25:06.

this trouble. By whatever measure you care to choose, would people be

:25:07.:25:13.

better off come the 20 15th election than they were in 2010? Yes, they

:25:14.:25:20.

will be. Look at jobs. Already more people employed than at any other

:25:21.:25:25.

time in history. Will they be better off? The best way for anyone to

:25:26.:25:29.

raise their living standards is access to a growing job market. But

:25:30.:25:36.

will they be better off? I believe people will be. Compared to 2010.

:25:37.:25:39.

people will be. Compared to 201 . Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This

:25:40.:25:44.

is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education

:25:45.:25:51.

Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always

:25:52.:25:54.

up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education

:25:55.:25:57.

then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't

:25:58.:26:05.

stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,

:26:06.:26:08.

Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform

:26:09.:26:11.

education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion

:26:12.:26:17.

for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's

:26:18.:26:22.

now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further

:26:23.:26:24.

creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174

:26:25.:26:27.

parents, funded by taxpayers. 1 4 have opened so far. The schools

:26:28.:26:33.

admission code was changed, to give parents more choice.

:26:34.:26:36.

And a pupil premium was introduced, currently, an extra ?900 funding for

:26:37.:26:40.

each disadvantaged child. An overhaul of the national

:26:41.:26:44.

curriculum provoked criticism. Chairman Gove mocked detractors as

:26:45.:26:48.

"bad academia". But exam reforms didn't quite go to plan. Although

:26:49.:26:54.

GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

:26:55.:26:58.

Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

:26:59.:27:04.

classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

:27:05.:27:07.

to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

:27:08.:27:09.

Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

:27:10.:27:15.

Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

:27:16.:27:20.

allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

:27:21.:27:25.

stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

:27:26.:27:30.

system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

:27:31.:27:41.

changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

:27:42.:27:47.

satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

:27:48.:27:50.

schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

:27:51.:27:54.

gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

:27:55.:27:58.

OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

:27:59.:28:06.

minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

:28:07.:28:10.

even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years our

:28:11.:28:16.

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

:28:17.:28:20.

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

:28:21.:28:24.

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

:28:25.:28:30.

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

:28:31.:28:36.

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

:28:37.:28:46.

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

:28:47.:28:51.

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

:28:52.:28:55.

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

:28:56.:28:59.

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

:29:00.:29:08.

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

:29:09.:29:14.

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

:29:15.:29:19.

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

:29:20.:29:24.

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

:29:25.:29:27.

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

:29:28.:29:34.

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

:29:35.:29:39.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

:29:40.:29:42.

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

:29:43.:29:44.

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

:29:45.:29:54.

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

:29:55.:29:59.

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

:30:00.:30:04.

GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The

:30:05.:30:08.

Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In

:30:09.:30:12.

opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was

:30:13.:30:16.

done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why

:30:17.:30:23.

are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I

:30:24.:30:28.

actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that

:30:29.:30:33.

if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the

:30:34.:30:36.

ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the

:30:37.:30:41.

playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used

:30:42.:30:46.

to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,

:30:47.:30:51.

you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower

:30:52.:30:54.

those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and

:30:55.:31:00.

freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local

:31:01.:31:02.

authority schools to become academies and new free school czar

:31:03.:31:07.

being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same

:31:08.:31:10.

level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the

:31:11.:31:14.

evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better

:31:15.:31:19.

than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they

:31:20.:31:24.

might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about

:31:25.:31:27.

this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored

:31:28.:31:32.

academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most

:31:33.:31:36.

difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing

:31:37.:31:41.

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

:31:42.:31:44.

They are doing GCSE equivalents the lass academic subjects question my

:31:45.:31:50.

cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look

:31:51.:31:54.

at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of

:31:55.:32:07.

teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally

:32:08.:32:10.

develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get

:32:11.:32:14.

them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same

:32:15.:32:18.

if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just

:32:19.:32:24.

a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian

:32:25.:32:28.

countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most

:32:29.:32:30.

important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.

:32:31.:32:36.

We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We

:32:37.:32:43.

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It s

:32:44.:32:44.

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no

:32:45.:32:44.

the right attitudes to work. It s no good getting good people into the

:32:45.:32:49.

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

:32:50.:32:52.

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

:32:53.:33:00.

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

:33:01.:33:05.

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

:33:06.:33:08.

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

:33:09.:33:12.

independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right

:33:13.:33:19.

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

:33:20.:33:22.

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

:33:23.:33:26.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

:33:27.:33:30.

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

:33:31.:33:36.

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

:33:37.:33:41.

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

:33:42.:33:44.

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

:33:45.:33:48.

also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many

:33:49.:33:52.

people in the education establishment think your primary

:33:53.:33:55.

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

:33:56.:34:02.

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

:34:03.:34:07.

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

:34:08.:34:10.

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

:34:11.:34:15.

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

:34:16.:34:23.

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

:34:24.:34:28.

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

:34:29.:34:34.

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

:34:35.:34:37.

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

:34:38.:34:41.

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

:34:42.:34:46.

air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be

:34:47.:34:49.

qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold

:34:50.:34:52.

standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons

:34:53.:35:01.

that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified

:35:02.:35:05.

teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed

:35:06.:35:09.

by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is

:35:10.:35:13.

to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to

:35:14.:35:17.

scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified

:35:18.:35:22.

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or

:35:23.:35:26.

modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from

:35:27.:35:28.

university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could

:35:29.:35:31.

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

:35:32.:35:36.

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

:35:37.:35:40.

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

:35:41.:35:43.

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

:35:44.:35:50.

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

:35:51.:35:54.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

:35:55.:36:01.

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

:36:02.:36:05.

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

:36:06.:36:09.

secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about

:36:10.:36:12.

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

:36:13.:36:15.

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

:36:16.:36:20.

category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it

:36:21.:36:25.

improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That

:36:26.:36:30.

is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted should pay a much greater part in

:36:31.:36:33.

monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

:36:34.:36:39.

Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

:36:40.:36:44.

tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

:36:45.:36:50.

You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

:36:51.:36:54.

Diane Abbott will be joining us. And we will have

:36:55.:37:05.

Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. We're joined

:37:06.:37:12.

today by an MP who's belonged to the same party for over 60 years, and an

:37:13.:37:16.

MEP who's setting`up a brand new one. David Winnick, Labour MP for

:37:17.:37:19.

Walsall North, is a member of the increasingly high`profile Commons

:37:20.:37:28.

Home Affairs Select Committee. Mike Nattrass was elected as a UKIP MEP

:37:29.:37:32.

at the last two European elections, but next time he plans to stand for

:37:33.:37:36.

An Independence Party, the AIP for short.

:37:37.:37:50.

Let's begin with yet more good news for Solihull, Castle Bromwich, i`54

:37:51.:37:52.

and everywhere else connected with Jaguar Land Rover. No sooner had

:37:53.:38:03.

they announced pre`tax profits of over ?1 billion for the past six

:38:04.:38:06.

months, than David Cameron, on his trade mission to China, was on hand

:38:07.:38:10.

to see them seal a ?4.5 billion sales agreement for over 100,000

:38:11.:38:13.

cars over the coming year. Accompanied by 120 business leaders,

:38:14.:38:16.

including JLR's chief executive, the Prime Minister was at the opening of

:38:17.:38:19.

the firm's new academy in Beijing, where technical, sales and service

:38:20.:38:32.

staff will undergo their training. Part of our long`term economic plan

:38:33.:38:36.

is to make sure Britain is a success in global markets. Jaguar Land Rover

:38:37.:38:41.

employed 38 thousand people back at home. It is doing brilliantly in

:38:42.:38:47.

China and Taiwan to themselves more cars, achieve more investment, and

:38:48.:38:51.

export the British model of apprenticeships.

:38:52.:38:55.

And during another leg of Mr Cameron's tour, this time in

:38:56.:38:58.

Shanghai, the Chinese owners of the London Taxi Company unveiled an ?80

:38:59.:39:00.

million investment programme, creating 200 more jobs in research

:39:01.:39:03.

and production at their Coventry plant, including the development of

:39:04.:39:06.

a new hybrid model. Geely say it will lead ultimately to a four`fold

:39:07.:39:22.

expansion of the workforce there. The evidence is that we are

:39:23.:39:25.

certainly competing in a global race. Our job, I would be the last

:39:26.:39:37.

to criticise David Cameron in this aspect. It could be said that he

:39:38.:39:40.

should have mentioned other matters in China, but anything that rings

:39:41.:39:44.

investment and jobs to the West Midlands meets with the approval of

:39:45.:39:50.

everybody. It does appear to be feeding into the supply chain

:39:51.:39:57.

companies. Indeed. We have said time and time again that such investment

:39:58.:40:01.

and development does indeed work. So many firms in the Black Country

:40:02.:40:06.

provide the main supplier with various items which they couldn't do

:40:07.:40:19.

without. Is there a danger that we do turn a blind eye to this

:40:20.:40:23.

marketplace in the EU which is on our doorstep? We need to trade with

:40:24.:40:30.

the world and the EU. The EU are taking over our bilateral

:40:31.:40:33.

agreements, so we cannot have one with China. It is through the EU.

:40:34.:40:39.

They are stealing our Commonwealth. In the past, it would have been the

:40:40.:40:44.

UK or Britain and is a long, and it is now the EU and Sri Lanka, and I

:40:45.:40:55.

resent that happily. Presumably you were talking about human rights but

:40:56.:41:02.

he should have raids. I did not expecting to go giver Lech Shah on

:41:03.:41:06.

human rights but it would have been right to express some concern. `` to

:41:07.:41:16.

go give a lecture. I think some comment would have been useful. I

:41:17.:41:26.

can see you agree. Broadly, I do. Coming up a little later: It was

:41:27.:41:29.

billed as the Autumn Statement where George Osborne 'secures the

:41:30.:41:31.

recovery'. So has the Chancellor got the right

:41:32.:41:34.

ingredients for growth in our part of the country, or will he have to

:41:35.:41:38.

change his recipe because of the cost of living crisis? That's our

:41:39.:41:41.

other big talking point, in a moment or two.

:41:42.:41:47.

Record numbers of Midlanders will turn to food banks to feed

:41:48.:41:50.

themselves and their families this Christmas. New figures show those

:41:51.:41:53.

using them are already up by nearly 10,000 on last year. The Trussell

:41:54.:41:57.

Trust, which runs 40 food banks in our part of the country, blames the

:41:58.:42:00.

rise partly on government changes to the benefits system. Our Coventry

:42:01.:42:08.

and Warwickshire political reporter Sian Grzeszczyk spoke to one mother

:42:09.:42:11.

who said she would have considered stealing to feed her family, but for

:42:12.:42:18.

the free hand`outs. Last week, these cupboards were bare and I had to go

:42:19.:42:21.

to a food bank, which was a great help.

:42:22.:42:23.

Thankfully, her cupboards are full today. But for the last few weeks,

:42:24.:42:26.

Susan's been struggling to feed herself and her children. She says a

:42:27.:42:30.

cut to her husband's benefits left her with no choice but to get help

:42:31.:42:41.

from a foodbank. We ended up having benefits cut to ?69 for a week. Gas

:42:42.:42:47.

and Electric to give the house going. I ended up turning to a food

:42:48.:42:51.

bank. It was absolutely brilliant to supporters through that time. What

:42:52.:42:57.

would you have done without it? I don't really know. I don't know

:42:58.:43:15.

where I would have gone. Possibly it would have lead to crime. I would

:43:16.:43:20.

steal, I would have too. To provide for my children. So you would have

:43:21.:43:29.

stolen? Food, to provide for my children, yes. In order to get food,

:43:30.:43:33.

you need to be referred by groups like doctors, the police, schools or

:43:34.:43:36.

health visitors. This old church stores tonnes of supplies for

:43:37.:43:39.

Coventry's foodbanks. The man who runs it tells me demand is soaring.

:43:40.:43:50.

The sorts of things we are seeing are around welfare and certainly

:43:51.:43:54.

things like sanctions, benefit change, benefit delayed. Only half

:43:55.:43:57.

the people coming through have suffered with that. The food bank is

:43:58.:44:03.

a point of last resort. In fact, the latest figures show that for the

:44:04.:44:07.

whole of last year more than 41,000 people received help from foodbanks

:44:08.:44:10.

in the West Midlands. But that number's already been surpassed in

:44:11.:44:13.

the first eight months of this year, with more than 50,000 people coming

:44:14.:44:17.

through the doors. Susan and her husband are trying to get back on

:44:18.:44:21.

track. But they feel very strongly that changes to the benefits system

:44:22.:44:29.

led to their situation. It's a mess. And that is in nice light words. The

:44:30.:44:35.

gentleman who deals with the benefits, the welfare secretary, is

:44:36.:44:40.

it? He should be looking at people that are on benefits and why are

:44:41.:44:46.

they needing food banks as much as they are? The Trussell Trust says

:44:47.:44:52.

more and more people like Susan and her family are turning to foodbanks,

:44:53.:44:56.

but the government says that's not surprising because of the amount of

:44:57.:45:07.

new ones being set up. Sian Grzeszczyk. In a moment I'll be

:45:08.:45:11.

talking to Anne Danks from the Christian anti`poverty charity the

:45:12.:45:14.

Trussell Trust. They report a huge surge in demand at their 40 food

:45:15.:45:17.

banks here. And we also invited the Work and Pensions Department to take

:45:18.:45:21.

part in this programme, but they declined. In a written statement

:45:22.:45:31.

they told us: I'm pleased to say the Conservative MP for Nuneaton Marcus

:45:32.:45:34.

Jones has been rather more forthcoming about this. I think

:45:35.:45:41.

there are a number of issues at play year. The squeeze on the cost of

:45:42.:45:45.

living in the last seven years has been enormous. The number of food

:45:46.:45:51.

banks has increased tenfold in the last Labour government and is still

:45:52.:45:54.

increasing. The current government has allowed organisations like job

:45:55.:45:59.

centre to signpost to food banks. That is all leading to a substantial

:46:00.:46:03.

increase to be but accessing and using food banks. I am aware people

:46:04.:46:08.

are squeezed with the cost of living and I'm glad I have supported the

:46:09.:46:17.

allowance, so people are better off. I think council tax freezes

:46:18.:46:25.

have been really helpful as well. Let's be clear, exactly what do you

:46:26.:46:33.

attribute this surge in demand to? Many reasons. Benefit delay and

:46:34.:46:42.

benefit issues of all kinds, including sanctions, are

:46:43.:46:44.

increasingly the reasons we are seeing referrals. The government

:46:45.:46:50.

Saver delivery of benefits of delivery on time has gone up and

:46:51.:46:57.

they say there is no robust evidence it is anything to do with their

:46:58.:47:03.

welfare changes. People can talk statistics but one thing which is

:47:04.:47:09.

clear is the reason that job centre plus was allowed to reflect clients

:47:10.:47:14.

to be banks and difficulties was on the basis that our figures showed

:47:15.:47:20.

how many people were struggling with benefit delays and changes. So it is

:47:21.:47:26.

a chicken and egg situation. The reason they refer clients to us is

:47:27.:47:29.

because we were able to demonstrate from our data that there was a need

:47:30.:47:36.

that. This issue is not just confined to areas which we would

:47:37.:47:39.

normally associate as chronic deprivation. That's right. Banks in

:47:40.:47:47.

Stratford`upon`Avon, for example. Somewhere I would go for a holiday

:47:48.:47:50.

break is an area with immense need. They now have a very busy food bank

:47:51.:47:57.

because, largely, these problems are hidden in our country. There is a

:47:58.:48:02.

huge factor of embarrassment people have to get over before they admit

:48:03.:48:07.

they are in difficulties. Then they neat as the help and access support.

:48:08.:48:10.

There are several hurdles to overcome. We use a prized geniuses

:48:11.:48:17.

in saying that she would consider stealing? `` were you surprised to

:48:18.:48:27.

hear Susan say. I'm not surprised. Whether she would have done it, we

:48:28.:48:31.

don't know. She didn't have two in this case. But she didn't. There was

:48:32.:48:42.

a tan fold increase in food bank was while Labour was in office so there

:48:43.:48:46.

is no easy side of the political fence to sit on. Far more people are

:48:47.:48:52.

using them. Because of the squeeze in incomes and benefits, many of my

:48:53.:48:55.

constituents are having a tremendously rough time. Either

:48:56.:49:01.

government would had to get on top of the welfare bill will stop yes,

:49:02.:49:05.

but anymore just waving at the moment. `` yes, but anymore just

:49:06.:49:19.

waving at the moment. If David Cameron went and spoke to people,

:49:20.:49:25.

they go because they have no alternative. Here we ever charity

:49:26.:49:32.

trying to address a problem that should be a government issue. We are

:49:33.:49:38.

talking about a sick people trying to survive. The EU this week have

:49:39.:49:46.

said that benefit system is too high and that is why we retract link

:49:47.:49:51.

immigrants from the European Union. `` why we are attracting will stop

:49:52.:49:57.

so people say it is your fault you have immigrants coming in, your

:49:58.:50:01.

benefits system is to high. Are they right, are they wrong? I don't think

:50:02.:50:06.

it is their business. We should address the problem by stopping

:50:07.:50:09.

people coming in and looking after our own. We shouldn't have people in

:50:10.:50:16.

the centre is struggling for food. I should be given decent jobs, and to

:50:17.:50:21.

do that, we need a jobs pool which is not always taken by immigrants.

:50:22.:50:26.

You need a decent job and a decent income as well. The fact of the

:50:27.:50:36.

matter is, benefits have been slashed and undermined in so many

:50:37.:50:41.

ways. Which other government comes in after the next election, for a

:50:42.:50:47.

time they will have a 2% cap on welfare spending. The majority of

:50:48.:50:52.

clients that come to us are actually working people. They are in

:50:53.:50:57.

employment and basically employment does not ring them enough income.

:50:58.:51:09.

The Chancellor George Osborne rounded`off a week of generally good

:51:10.:51:12.

news on the Midlands economy with a visit to the Staffordshire digger

:51:13.:51:15.

manufacturer JCB. They're creating 2,500 new jobs under a ?150 million

:51:16.:51:18.

expansion programme, including a new factory in Uttoxeter and an

:51:19.:51:21.

excavator plant at Cheadle. All this, just a day after his economic

:51:22.:51:25.

update to the Commons. It coincided this year not just with the festive

:51:26.:51:29.

season, but also with that epic "Winter Storm". And yet he will

:51:30.:51:32.

persist in calling it the "Autumn Statement". Susana Mendonca has more

:51:33.:51:48.

on this for us. Britain's economic plan is working.

:51:49.:51:58.

But the job is not done. At this Birmingham bakery they were

:51:59.:52:01.

delighted there was no sign of a pasty tax and pleased that business

:52:02.:52:07.

rates are being capped. That will make sure we can sustain jobs that

:52:08.:52:12.

we currently employ local people in. It can increase profit margins a

:52:13.:52:20.

bit better. The Chancellor 's message is all about cooking up

:52:21.:52:23.

economic growth, and companies like this one have an improving. At the

:52:24.:52:27.

question is whether this will translate into votes for, Lycian

:52:28.:52:33.

parties in those key marginal seats at the next election. So what do MPs

:52:34.:52:37.

in those marginals make of the Autumn statement? Message is that

:52:38.:52:42.

the economic land is working. Clearly, there is more work to do.

:52:43.:52:46.

The economy is growing, but we need to stick to the plan and make the

:52:47.:52:50.

tough decisions necessary to turn our fortunes around. But attempts to

:52:51.:52:56.

neutralise Labour's message about a "cost of living crisis" by limiting

:52:57.:52:59.

rises in household energy bills got a decidedly cool reception though.

:53:00.:53:06.

We've got a house full of children and they leave the light on, I don't

:53:07.:53:10.

know how much difference that makes. We need a reduction in our household

:53:11.:53:13.

bills. So will the Chancellor's Autumn Statement prove to be

:53:14.:53:16.

palatable for the voters, or will it prove to be more difficult to

:53:17.:53:23.

digest? It has been quite a week on the

:53:24.:53:27.

economy. Is Labour in danger of getting itself on the wrong side of

:53:28.:53:31.

the economic argument by concentrating heavily on living

:53:32.:53:35.

standards when we have job creation in our part of the country way ahead

:53:36.:53:39.

of the rest of the country, small and medium emphasises `` Enterprises

:53:40.:53:49.

growing 5.5%. The electorate will decide in due course, but the

:53:50.:53:56.

squeeze on incomes continue. Take energy prices ` when it was all

:53:57.:54:02.

privatised, and I voted against that, we were told competition would

:54:03.:54:06.

make it easier, people can pick and choose. Now of course the market is

:54:07.:54:13.

dominated by six Giants. I'm very much in favour of a freeze which Ed

:54:14.:54:16.

Miliband put forward, a freeze when we are elected. I would argue this

:54:17.:54:24.

point, I would make this point ` those who oppose such a freeze are

:54:25.:54:27.

rather like those who said, if you have been at a minimum wage, it will

:54:28.:54:34.

simply undermined implement. Where do you stand? However you look at

:54:35.:54:38.

it, public spending in this country is being clawed back to levels I saw

:54:39.:54:45.

Robert pest and say during the week, around 1948. That was a safe

:54:46.:54:52.

hands statement. There are other aspects we are not saving money on.

:54:53.:55:00.

One is HS2. Privatise that as well? Come on, stop by the dicing

:55:01.:55:05.

everything. ?100 million that will be. `` stop privatising everything.

:55:06.:55:17.

There is already ?3000 per household going into a project which is not

:55:18.:55:20.

necessary. And the EU have said this week that we need to pay another ?10

:55:21.:55:26.

billion over the next five years. Where do you stand on HS2? I'm in

:55:27.:55:32.

favour, I think it is in the overall interest of the West Midlands.

:55:33.:55:38.

Motorways and the rest have been opposed on previous occasions. When

:55:39.:55:41.

they have been built, everyone is used. Or nearly everyone who uses

:55:42.:55:49.

the car. Now, for the last time this year,

:55:50.:55:52.

our regular round`up of the political week in the Midlands in 60

:55:53.:55:56.

seconds, brought to us today by our Shropshire political reporter, Liz

:55:57.:55:59.

Roberts. Bob Jones, Labour's Police and Crime

:56:00.:56:02.

Commissioner in the West Midlands, has re`appointed the sitting Chief

:56:03.:56:05.

Constable Chris Sims to the top job for three more years.

:56:06.:56:11.

The police officer at the centre of the Plebgate row is to sue the

:56:12.:56:14.

Sutton Coldfield MP Andrew Mitchell for libel. Mr Mitchell accused PC

:56:15.:56:18.

Toby Rowland of not telling the truth about events in Downing Street

:56:19.:56:22.

in September last year. Blind pedestrians say new shared

:56:23.:56:25.

spaced road layouts in places like Coventry are putting lives at risk.

:56:26.:56:29.

They've taken their campaign to the House of Lords. Through this design,

:56:30.:56:42.

blind people are being excluded. They are staying at home.

:56:43.:56:45.

The Gloucestershire badger cull has been called off. Marksmen have

:56:46.:56:48.

failed to reach their kill targets, despite an extension.

:56:49.:56:51.

And an opinion poll in Dudley North suggests Labour's Ian Austin will

:56:52.:56:54.

hold on to the marginal seat at the next General Election, helped in

:56:55.:57:04.

part by a surge in the UKIP vote. We should point out that survey of

:57:05.:57:07.

voting intentions in Dudley North was a telephone poll of just over

:57:08.:57:10.

500 people, so it definitely requires a health warning.

:57:11.:57:19.

Nevertheless, your former party is very much in the spotlight. The

:57:20.:57:26.

anti`European end of the market is looking rather congested with

:57:27.:57:30.

splinter parties. Are you out to sabotage Nigel Farage? Not entirely,

:57:31.:57:35.

but I think people 's attention should be drawn to the fact that

:57:36.:57:42.

Nigel has his problems. Will you plan to field candidates in this

:57:43.:57:48.

region? Every region. You are going to split the vote. No, we're going

:57:49.:57:54.

to get votes from across the spectrum. I am well to the left of

:57:55.:57:59.

UKIP and I suspect we will get a lot of Labour votes. If there a Faustian

:58:00.:58:10.

pact between the UN UKIP? There is no such pact. We don't know how many

:58:11.:58:14.

votes we may lose to UKIP. I think there is far greater concern that

:58:15.:58:21.

the Tories are more anxious about UKIP. We are not complacent anymore

:58:22.:58:26.

than we are about the poll but you just mentioned. We just hope the

:58:27.:58:32.

outcome will be that we can get rid of this wretched government. One

:58:33.:58:40.

final thought. The passing of Nelson Mandela. I'm among those who

:58:41.:58:47.

campaigned over a period of so many years that he should be released,

:58:48.:58:52.

that the tyranny in South Africa should come to an end. Sad, terribly

:58:53.:58:59.

sad that he has died, but what he has achieved will last as a memorial

:59:00.:59:03.

to a man who dedicated his life with colleagues to the liberation of his

:59:04.:59:07.

country. After 27 years he should have been binned it did when he came

:59:08.:59:11.

out of jail, but he turned the other cheek in a very Christ`like manner

:59:12.:59:15.

and made friends with his enemies. The man is one of the greatest in my

:59:16.:59:22.

memory. I think that has to be seen as the most momentous event of a

:59:23.:59:25.

very busy week. My thanks to David and Mike. Coming

:59:26.:59:30.

up this coming week: a further round of budget cuts are to be outlined

:59:31.:59:33.

tomorrow by our biggest local authority, Birmingham City Council.

:59:34.:59:36.

BBC WM and Midlands Today will have more on that. This is our final

:59:37.:59:41.

programme before Christmas. So have a good one. This, for the last time

:59:42.:59:47.

in 2013, is where we rejoin Andrew Neil.

:59:48.:59:56.

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.

:59:57.:00:22.

Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

:00:23.:00:42.

The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or

:00:43.:00:49.

politics, was protest against apartheid.

:00:50.:00:55.

I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is

:00:56.:01:05.

the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on

:01:06.:01:16.

the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can

:01:17.:01:22.

change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by

:01:23.:01:25.

changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him

:01:26.:01:31.

tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.

:01:32.:01:43.

Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us

:01:44.:01:47.

to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP

:01:48.:02:05.

Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from

:02:06.:02:09.

prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one

:02:10.:02:14.

person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you

:02:15.:02:19.

met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest

:02:20.:02:20.

influence? He was extraordinary. the most impressive and biggest

:02:21.:02:23.

influence? He was extraordinary He had just come out of prison, 28

:02:24.:02:28.

years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up

:02:29.:02:34.

and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came

:02:35.:02:37.

across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful

:02:38.:02:42.

transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you

:02:43.:02:45.

if you have black majority rule you might have a bloodbath. It's down to

:02:46.:02:48.

Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that

:02:49.:02:53.

Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the

:02:54.:03:02.

key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about

:03:03.:03:08.

it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That

:03:09.:03:11.

anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics

:03:12.:03:16.

in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the

:03:17.:03:22.

time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in

:03:23.:03:25.

South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the

:03:26.:03:29.

anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political

:03:30.:03:35.

campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's

:03:36.:03:38.

assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people

:03:39.:03:43.

that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him

:03:44.:03:47.

come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you

:03:48.:03:52.

have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,

:03:53.:03:56.

picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was

:03:57.:04:04.

more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice

:04:05.:04:11.

Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's

:04:12.:04:15.

performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a

:04:16.:04:19.

brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best

:04:20.:04:23.

performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points

:04:24.:04:27.

he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I

:04:28.:04:32.

noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that

:04:33.:04:38.

under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for

:04:39.:04:41.

him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience

:04:42.:04:47.

first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not

:04:48.:04:50.

anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This

:04:51.:05:02.

is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can

:05:03.:05:06.

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

:05:07.:05:12.

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

:05:13.:05:17.

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

:05:18.:05:22.

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

:05:23.:05:26.

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

:05:27.:05:31.

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

:05:32.:05:36.

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

:05:37.:05:40.

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

:05:41.:05:44.

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

:05:45.:05:48.

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

:05:49.:05:53.

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

:05:54.:05:59.

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

:06:00.:06:03.

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

:06:04.:06:08.

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

:06:09.:06:12.

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

:06:13.:06:17.

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

:06:18.:06:20.

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

:06:21.:06:25.

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

:06:26.:06:28.

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

:06:29.:06:30.

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don t Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't

:06:31.:06:34.

think he would do it. Talk about shifting tectonic plates, it would,

:06:35.:06:38.

wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too

:06:39.:06:44.

happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a

:06:45.:06:55.

bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously

:06:56.:06:59.

retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been

:07:00.:07:04.

after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle

:07:05.:07:07.

ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If

:07:08.:07:13.

you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up

:07:14.:07:18.

knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with

:07:19.:07:21.

Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he

:07:22.:07:28.

was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I

:07:29.:07:31.

think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way

:07:32.:07:35.

around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is

:07:36.:07:38.

too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic

:07:39.:07:43.

policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had

:07:44.:07:49.

some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making

:07:50.:07:53.

from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.

:07:54.:07:58.

There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in

:07:59.:08:01.

trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory

:08:02.:08:05.

cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other

:08:06.:08:09.

words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can

:08:10.:08:13.

say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.

:08:14.:08:17.

Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,

:08:18.:08:20.

then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the

:08:21.:08:27.

macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not

:08:28.:08:31.

experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even

:08:32.:08:36.

Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for

:08:37.:08:40.

middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is

:08:41.:08:44.

particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't

:08:45.:08:47.

go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a

:08:48.:08:52.

quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come

:08:53.:08:56.

out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place

:08:57.:09:02.

a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,

:09:03.:09:09.

one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I

:09:10.:09:17.

say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father

:09:18.:09:23.

Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for

:09:24.:09:30.

a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and

:09:31.:09:37.

1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will

:09:38.:09:42.

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR,

:09:43.:09:46.

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR got

:09:47.:09:46.

2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went

:09:47.:09:52.

down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

:09:53.:09:56.

claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

:09:57.:10:03.

wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

:10:04.:10:06.

growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

:10:07.:10:08.

incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2 4%,

:10:09.:10:15.

because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to

:10:16.:10:22.

3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this

:10:23.:10:30.

time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the

:10:31.:10:37.

European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the

:10:38.:10:44.

vote? Yes. Second behind Labour Second behind Labour. Will Alex

:10:45.:10:50.

Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be

:10:51.:10:57.

closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like

:10:58.:11:00.

let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many

:11:01.:11:08.

Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than

:11:09.:11:17.

anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel

:11:18.:11:21.

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident. A change of tone for

:11:22.:11:27.

your magazine. Not many will come, but a lot here already will

:11:28.:11:31.

normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most

:11:32.:11:37.

right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the

:11:38.:11:41.

kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,

:11:42.:11:51.

everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason

:11:52.:11:55.

they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time

:11:56.:12:01.

next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has

:12:02.:12:08.

lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be

:12:09.:12:15.

here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope

:12:16.:12:21.

so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?

:12:22.:12:29.

Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not

:12:30.:12:33.

break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They

:12:34.:12:39.

will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe

:12:40.:12:46.

just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?

:12:47.:12:52.

I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems

:12:53.:12:58.

pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory

:12:59.:13:01.

house of government. I think it would suit the Lib Dems to break

:13:02.:13:05.

just before the election. I think that is what Vince Cable wants to

:13:06.:13:09.

do. I don't think it is what Nick Clegg would like to do. The Tories

:13:10.:13:16.

would love it. They would have all of the toys to themselves. Yellow

:13:17.:13:19.

marker they would look like the grown-ups. The problem for Vince

:13:20.:13:22.

Cable is that he's not the force that used to be after his temper

:13:23.:13:25.

tantrum at the Conference. I will be back with the Daily

:13:26.:13:34.

Politics next week. If Santer gives you a diary in your stocking, pencil

:13:35.:13:39.

in Sunday the 20th of January, the first Sunday Politics of 2014.

:13:40.:13:46.

Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is

:13:47.:13:48.

Christmas. And New Year.

:13:49.:13:51.

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