16/03/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands


16/03/2014

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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth

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Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for

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middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our

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top story. Ed Balls says millions of people

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aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy

:00:54.:00:56.

with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the

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Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU

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referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP

:01:08.:01:08.

means no chance And in the Midlands, we must build

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more homes where people want them than not where they don't. So why

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are brownfield sites overlooked by developers with designs on our green

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spaces instead? restoring confidence in the safety

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of cycling. The three areas of London getting a cash boost to try

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something different. And with me as always our top

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political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be

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tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the

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programme. So, just three months after his last major financial

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statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday,

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delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his

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own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy". The

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message I will give in the Budget is the economic plan is working but the

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job is far from done. We need to build resilient economy which means

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addressing the long-term weaknesses in Britain that we don't export

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enough, invest enough, build enough, make enough. Those are the things I

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will address because we want Britain to earn its way in the world. George

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Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls, has also been talking ahead of the

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Budget. He says not everyone is feeling the benefit of the economic

:02:28.:02:29.

recovery, and again attacked the Government's decision to reduce the

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top rate of tax from 50 to 45%. George Osborne is only ever tough

:02:37.:02:40.

when he's having a go at the week and the voiceless. Labour is willing

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to face up to people on the highest incomes and say, I'm sorry,

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justifying a big tax cut at this time is not fair. We will take away

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the winter allowance from the richer pensioners, and I think that's the

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right thing to do. George Osborne might agree, but he's not allowed to

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say so. That was the Chancellor and the shadow chancellor. Janan, it

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seems like we are in a race against time. No one argues that the

:03:07.:03:10.

recovery is not under way, in fact it looks quite strong after a long

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wait, but will it feed through to the living standards of ordinary

:03:15.:03:19.

people in time for the May election? They only have 14 months to do it.

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The big economic variable is business investment. Even during the

:03:24.:03:28.

downturn, businesses hoarded a lot of cash. The question is, are they

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confident enough to release that into investment and wages? Taking on

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new people, giving them higher pay settlements. That could make the

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difference and the country will feel more prosperous and this time next

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year. But come to think of it, it strikes me, that how anticipated it

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is, it's the least talked about Budget for many years. I think that

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is because the economy has settled down a bit, but also because people

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have got used to the idea that there is no such thing as a giveaway.

:03:59.:04:02.

Anything that is a tax cut will be taken away as a tax rise or spending

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cut. That's true during the good times but during fiscal

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consolidation, it's avoidable. - unavoidable. There is a plus and

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minus for the Conservatives here. 49% of people think the government

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is on roughly the right course, but only 16% think that their financial

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circumstances will improve this year. It will be a tough one for the

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Labour Party to respond to. I agree with Janan. Everyone seems bored

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with the run-up to the Budget. The front page of the Sunday Times was

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about fox hunting, the front page of the Sunday Telegraph was about EU

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renegotiation. Maybe we are saying this because there have not been

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many leaks. We have got used to them, and most of the George Osborne

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chat on Twitter was about how long his tie was. Freakishly long. I

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wouldn't dare to speculate why. Anything we should read into that? I

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don't know. For a long while there was no recovery, then it was it is a

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weak recovery, and now, all right, it's strong but not reaching

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everyone in the country. That is where we are in the debate. That's

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right, and the Conservative MPs are so anxious and they are making

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George Osborne announcing the rays in the personal allowance will go

:05:28.:05:32.

up, saying it might go up to 10 750 from next year, and Conservative MPs

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say that that's OK but we need to think about the middle voters.

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People are saying the economy is recovering but no one is feeling it

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in their pocket. These are people snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The

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Tories are saying these are our people and we have to get to them.

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He has given the Lib Dems more than they could have hoped for on raising

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the threshold. Why is he not saying we have done a bit for you, now we

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have to look after our people and get some of these people out of that

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40% bracket? Partly because the Lib Dems have asked for it so

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insistently behind-the-scenes. Somebody from the Treasury this week

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told me that these debates behind the scenes between the Lib Dems and

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Tories are incredibly tenacious and get more so every year. The Lib Dems

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have been insistent about going further on the threshold. The second

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reason is that the Tories think the issue can work for them in the next

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election. They can take the credit. If they enthusiastically going to

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?12,000 and make it a manifesto pledge, they can claim ownership of

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the policy. The Liberal Democrats want to take it to 12,500, which

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means you are getting into minimum wage territory. It's incredibly

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expensive and the Tories are saying that maybe you would be looking at

:06:55.:07:00.

the 40p rate. The Tories have played as well. There have been authorised

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briefings about the 40p rate, and Cameron and Osborne have said that

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their priority was helping the lowest paid which is a useful

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statement to make and it appeals to the UKIP voters who are the

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blue-collar workers. And we are right, the economy will determine

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the next election? You assume so. It was ever that is. It didn't in 992

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or 1987. It did in 1992. Ed Miliband's announcement last week

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that a Labour government would not hold a referendum on Europe unless

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there's another transfer of powers from Britain to Brussels has

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certainly clarified matters. UKIP say it just shows the mainstream

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parties can't be trusted. The Conservatives think it means UKIP

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voters might now flock back to them as the only realistic chance of

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securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot reports.

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When it comes to Europe and Britain's relation to it, the

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question is whether the answer is answered by a question. To be in or

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not to be in, that is the question, and our politicians have seemed less

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interested in question itself but whether they want to let us answer

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it. Labour clarified their position last week. There will be no transfer

:08:10.:08:21.

of powers without an in out referendum, without a clear choice

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as to whether Britain will stay in the EU. That seems yes to a

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referendum, but hold on. I believe it is unlikely that this lock will

:08:31.:08:33.

be used in the next Parliament. So that's a no. The Conservatives say

:08:34.:08:37.

yes to asking, in 2017, if re-elected, but haven't always. In

:08:38.:08:47.

2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by voting for a referendum on EU

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membership: the largest rebellion against a Tory prime minister over

:08:50.:08:52.

Europe. Prompted by a petition from over 100,000 members of the public.

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The wrong question at the wrong time said the Foreign Secretary of a

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coalition Government including selfie-conciously-pro European Lib

:09:06.:09:08.

Dems, who had a referendum pledge in their 2010 manifesto, but only in

:09:09.:09:11.

certain circumstances. So we have the newspapers, and the public

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meeting leaflets. UKIP have always wanted the question put regardless.

:09:15.:09:17.

But Labour's new position may change things and The Conservatives think

:09:18.:09:25.

so. I think it does, because, you know, we are saying very clearly,

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like UKIP, we want a referendum but only a Conservative government can

:09:32.:09:36.

deliver it because most suffer largest would say it is possible in

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the first past the post system to have a UKIP government --

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sophologists. And then it's easy for as to say that if a UKIP vote lets

:09:51.:09:57.

in a Conservative government, then they won't hold a referendum. UKIP

:09:58.:10:03.

seem undaunted by the clarifications of the other parties, campaigning

:10:04.:10:06.

like the rest but with a "tell it how it is, just saying what you re

:10:07.:10:09.

thinking, we aren't like them" attitude. They seem more worried

:10:10.:10:16.

about us and what we want, and I don't see that in the other parties.

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In parts of the UK, like South Essex, it's a message they think is

:10:21.:10:27.

working. They are taking the voters for granted again and people have

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had enough. People are angry, they see people saying they will get a

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vote on the European Union, but then it just comes down the road. They

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were quick to capitalise on the announcements, saying only the

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Conservatives will give you say so does it change things? Not really.

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We have been talking about a referendum and having a debate on

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the European Union for years, and the other parties are playing catch

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up. They have a trust issue. Nobody trusts them on the European Union

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and that is why people come to us. Who the average UKIP voter is, or

:11:07.:11:09.

how they voted before is complicated, and what dent they

:11:10.:11:11.

might make on Conservative and Labour votes in 2015 is trickier

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still, but someone's been crunching the numbers anyway. We reckon it is

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between 25 and 30% of the electorate broadly share the UKIP motivation,

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so to top out at that level would be difficult. That's an awful lot of

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voters, but it's not the majority, and this is the reason why the main

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parties can't afford to just openly appealed to the UKIP electorate too

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hard because the elections are won and lost amongst the other 70%, the

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middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An

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appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other

:11:49.:11:52.

groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election.

:11:53.:11:55.

Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at

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any support the other parties have previously enjoyed.

:11:59.:12:02.

Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now

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for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good

:12:05.:12:21.

morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the

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next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long

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way between now and the next election, and Conservative party

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jobs and changes. We had a cast iron guarantee of a referendum from

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camera, then he three line whip people to vote against it, and now

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they are for it. What the Labour Party has done is open up a huge

:12:41.:12:44.

blank to us, and that is what we will go for in the European

:12:45.:12:47.

elections this coming year in May. I think there is a very strong chance

:12:48.:12:51.

that Labour will match the Conservative pledge by the next

:12:52.:12:55.

general election. There may be, but at the moment he has ruled it out,

:12:56.:13:00.

and if he does not change his mind and goes into the election with the

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policy as it is, the only chance of a referendum is a Tory government.

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If you think the Tories will form a majority, which I think is unlikely.

:13:11.:13:14.

Remember, two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative

:13:15.:13:17.

anyway. There is still this line of questioning that assumes UKIP voters

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are middle-class Tories. We have some voters like that, but most of

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them are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems and a lot of

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nonvoters. But it come the election you failed to change Mr Miliband's

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line, I repeat, the only chance of a referendum, if you want a

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referendum, if that is what matters, and the polls suggest it doesn't

:13:41.:13:44.

matter to that many people, but if that is what matters, the only way

:13:45.:13:47.

you can get one is to vote Conservative. No, because you have a

:13:48.:13:52.

situation in key marginals, especially where all three parties

:13:53.:13:56.

are getting a good share, where we will see, and this depends a lot on

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the local elections and the European elections, there are target

:14:01.:14:06.

constituencies where UKIP has a reasonably good chance of winning a

:14:07.:14:10.

seat, and that will change the agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a

:14:11.:14:17.

Tory government less likely. Arab voters are not Tory. Only a third of

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the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are

:14:21.:14:26.

not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar

:14:27.:14:30.

voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than

:14:31.:14:33.

conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat

:14:34.:14:37.

is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact

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they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a

:14:42.:14:46.

minority Ed Miliband government it means no referendum. Labour and the

:14:47.:14:49.

Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in

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a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those

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elections will likely change the party stands and position on a

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referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for

:15:02.:15:06.

us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the

:15:07.:15:10.

Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we

:15:11.:15:14.

are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their

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policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to

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you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You

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are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal

:15:38.:15:41.

Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is

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comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew

:15:49.:15:54.

what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position

:15:55.:15:59.

because the better you do in a general election, the less chance

:16:00.:16:04.

there will be a referendum by 2 20. No, look at the numbers. Only a

:16:05.:16:10.

third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled

:16:11.:16:16.

voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP

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candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said

:16:21.:16:25.

Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote

:16:26.:16:30.

Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest

:16:31.:16:35.

we are the Conservative problem it suggests we are hurting all of the

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parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have

:16:39.:16:44.

lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating

:16:45.:16:50.

Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped

:16:51.:16:59.

out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance

:17:00.:17:03.

for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with

:17:04.:17:10.

respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big

:17:11.:17:15.

criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on

:17:16.:17:19.

national television on the alternatives of the European Union

:17:20.:17:24.

so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can

:17:25.:17:37.

be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No,

:17:38.:17:43.

I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the

:17:44.:17:48.

British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not

:17:49.:17:53.

being within the European Union not being within its rule book, not

:17:54.:17:58.

suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the

:17:59.:18:04.

manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk I

:18:05.:18:09.

want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in

:18:10.:18:16.

their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone!

:18:17.:18:23.

We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your

:18:24.:18:27.

European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it

:18:28.:18:34.

a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made

:18:35.:18:40.

a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not

:18:41.:18:48.

answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded

:18:49.:18:53.

campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote

:18:54.:18:59.

in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another

:19:00.:19:03.

former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his

:19:04.:19:09.

money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr

:19:10.:19:15.

Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers

:19:16.:19:25.

saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that

:19:26.:19:32.

true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So

:19:33.:19:38.

lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded

:19:39.:19:44.

campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general

:19:45.:19:48.

election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on

:19:49.:19:58.

paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any

:19:59.:20:03.

family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for

:20:04.:20:10.

the first seven years of my job She is paid now? Until May, then she

:20:11.:20:17.

comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In

:20:18.:20:25.

2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no

:20:26.:20:31.

exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the

:20:32.:20:35.

National party as well as a leader of the group in European

:20:36.:20:39.

Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for

:20:40.:20:43.

whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big

:20:44.:20:48.

enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told

:20:49.:20:58.

others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big

:20:59.:21:01.

job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of

:21:02.:21:06.

very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary

:21:07.:21:11.

calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It

:21:12.:21:18.

is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is

:21:19.:21:24.

after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your

:21:25.:21:27.

wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in

:21:28.:21:35.

Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you

:21:36.:21:38.

would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that.

:21:39.:21:45.

I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the

:21:46.:21:48.

European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign

:21:49.:21:53.

in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people

:21:54.:21:59.

maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so

:22:00.:22:04.

whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial

:22:05.:22:08.

gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been

:22:09.:22:12.

allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European

:22:13.:22:18.

Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC

:22:19.:22:23.

coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without

:22:24.:22:28.

explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege

:22:29.:22:32.

by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was

:22:33.:22:40.

pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed

:22:41.:22:48.

a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over

:22:49.:22:52.

the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that

:22:53.:22:56.

the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use

:22:57.:23:03.

anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his

:23:04.:23:10.

wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't

:23:11.:23:16.

it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being

:23:17.:23:20.

taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind

:23:21.:23:27.

these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks,

:23:28.:23:33.

but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of

:23:34.:23:37.

what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily

:23:38.:23:42.

newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six

:23:43.:23:46.

times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local

:23:47.:23:50.

council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will

:23:51.:23:56.

make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes,

:23:57.:24:07.

and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not

:24:08.:24:12.

true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you

:24:13.:24:22.

consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting

:24:23.:24:27.

Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal.

:24:28.:24:35.

Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single

:24:36.:24:43.

seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails to win an outright

:24:44.:24:48.

majority, will you stand down as UKIP leader? I would think within

:24:49.:24:53.

about 12 hours, yes. I will have failed, I got into politics not

:24:54.:24:58.

because I wanted a career in politics, far from it. I did it

:24:59.:25:03.

because I don't think this European entanglement is right for our

:25:04.:25:06.

country. I think a lot of people have woken up to the idea we have

:25:07.:25:11.

lost control of our borders and now is the moment for UKIP to achieve

:25:12.:25:18.

what it set out to do. Will UKIP continue without you if you stand

:25:19.:25:24.

down? Of course it will. I know that everyone says it is a one-man band

:25:25.:25:34.

but it is far from that. We have had some painful moments, getting rid of

:25:35.:25:36.

old UKIP, new UKIP is more professional, less angry and it is

:25:37.:25:40.

going places. Nigel Farage, thank you for being with us.

:25:41.:25:46.

So, what else should we be looking out for in Wednesday's Budget

:25:47.:25:49.

statement? We've compiled a Sunday Politics guide to the Chancellor's

:25:50.:25:50.

likely announcements. Eyes down everyone, it's time for a

:25:51.:25:54.

bit of budget bingo. Let's see what we will get from the man who lives

:25:55.:25:58.

at legs 11. Despite some good news on the economy, George Osborne says

:25:59.:26:01.

that this will be a Budget of hard truths with more pain ahead in order

:26:02.:26:04.

to get the public finances back under control. But many in the

:26:05.:26:07.

Conservative party, including the former chancellor Norman Lamont

:26:08.:26:10.

want Mr Osborne to help the middle classes by doing something about the

:26:11.:26:13.

4.4 million people who fall into the 40% bracket. Around one million more

:26:14.:26:20.

people pay tax at that rate compared to 2010 because the higher tax

:26:21.:26:23.

threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has

:26:24.:26:28.

indicated he might tackle the issue in the next Conservative manifesto,

:26:29.:26:31.

but for now he is focused on helping the low paid. It's likely we will

:26:32.:26:37.

see another increase in the amount you can earn before being taxed

:26:38.:26:43.

perhaps up another ?500 to ?10, 00. The Chancellor is going to flesh out

:26:44.:26:46.

the details of a tax break for childcare payments, and there could

:26:47.:26:49.

be cries of 'house' with the promise of more help for the building

:26:50.:27:06.

industry. The Help To Buy scheme will be extended to 2020 and there

:27:07.:27:10.

could be the go-ahead for the first Garden City in 40 years. Finally,

:27:11.:27:13.

bingo regulars could be celebrating a full house with a possible cut in

:27:14.:27:15.

bingo tax. And I've been joined in the studio

:27:16.:27:18.

by the former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford

:27:19.:27:20.

by the former Labour Cabinet minister Hazel Blears, and in

:27:21.:27:23.

Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come

:27:24.:27:26.

to Norman Lamont first, you and another former Tory Chancellor,

:27:27.:27:33.

Nigel Lawson, have called in the fall in the threshold for the rate

:27:34.:27:43.

at which the 40p clicks in. I would have preferred an adjustment in the

:27:44.:27:47.

Budget but I agree with what you are saying, it sounds like the

:27:48.:27:53.

Chancellor will not do that. My main point is that you cannot go on

:27:54.:27:57.

forever and forever increasing the personal allowance and not

:27:58.:28:01.

increasing the 40% tax threshold because you are driving more and

:28:02.:28:07.

more people into that band. It is an expensive policy because in order to

:28:08.:28:10.

keep the number of people not paying tax constant, you have to keep

:28:11.:28:16.

adjusting it each year. When this was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it

:28:17.:28:22.

applied to one in 20 people, the 40% rate, it now applies to one in six

:28:23.:28:30.

people. By next year, there will be 6 million people paying base. Why do

:28:31.:28:34.

you think your Tory colleagues seem happy to go along with the Lib Dems

:28:35.:28:40.

and target whatever money there is for tax cuts rather -- on the lower

:28:41.:28:54.

paid rather than the middle incomes? They are not helping the lowest

:28:55.:29:00.

paid. If you wanted to really help the lowest paid people you would

:29:01.:29:03.

raise the threshold for national insurance contributions, which is

:29:04.:29:10.

around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems stopping any rise in the 40p

:29:11.:29:19.

threshold? We are concentrating on raising the lower threshold because

:29:20.:29:25.

we believe that is the way to help those on lower incomes. Whilst they

:29:26.:29:31.

haven't benefited as much as the lower paid they have participated

:29:32.:29:34.

and I think people understand right now, if you were going to prioritise

:29:35.:29:39.

the high earners, when we are still trying to help those on lower and

:29:40.:29:44.

middle incomes who haven't enjoyed great pay increases but have got the

:29:45.:29:48.

benefit of these tax increases, that is why we would like to do it for

:29:49.:29:53.

the minimum wage level. But the poorest will not benefit at all The

:29:54.:29:59.

poorest 16% already don't pay tax. Why don't you increase the threshold

:30:00.:30:04.

at which National Insurance starts? You only have two earned ?5,500

:30:05.:30:13.

before you start to pay it. You ve got to remember that the raising of

:30:14.:30:18.

the threshold to ?10,000 or more was something the Tories said we could

:30:19.:30:23.

not afford. Why are you continuing to do it? If you want to help the

:30:24.:30:30.

working poor, the way would be to take the lowest out of national

:30:31.:30:36.

insurance. The view we take is they are benefiting, and have benefited

:30:37.:30:39.

from, the raising of the tax threshold. You now have to earn

:30:40.:30:45.

?10,000, we hope eventually 12, 00, and that means only people on very

:30:46.:30:49.

low wages. If you opt out of national insurance, you're saying to

:30:50.:30:53.

people that you make no contribution to the welfare system, so there is a

:30:54.:30:59.

general principle that people should participate and paying, and also

:31:00.:31:03.

claim when they need something out. We thought raising the threshold was

:31:04.:31:07.

simple and effective at a time of economic austerity and the right way

:31:08.:31:10.

to deliver a helpful support to welcoming people. -- working people.

:31:11.:31:17.

With the Labour Party continue to raise the threshold, or do they

:31:18.:31:21.

think there is a case that there are too many people being dragged into

:31:22.:31:27.

the 40p tax bracket? If Norman Lamont thinks this is the right time

:31:28.:31:30.

to benefit people who are reasonably well off rather than those who are

:31:31.:31:34.

struggling to make ends meet, then genuinely, I say it respectfully, I

:31:35.:31:37.

don't think he's living in the world the rest of us are. Most working

:31:38.:31:42.

people have seen their wages effectively reduced by about ?1 00

:31:43.:31:46.

because they have been frozen, so the right thing is to help people on

:31:47.:31:53.

modest incomes. I also understand that if the 40% threshold went up,

:31:54.:31:56.

the people who would benefit the most, as ever, are the people who

:31:57.:32:01.

are really well off, not the people in the middle. The Conservatives

:32:02.:32:05.

have already reduced the 50p tax on people over ?150,000 a year, and we

:32:06.:32:10.

have to concentrate on the people going out to work, doing their best

:32:11.:32:14.

to bring their children up and have a decent life and need a bit of

:32:15.:32:17.

help. I think raising the threshold is a good thing. We would bring back

:32:18.:32:21.

the 10p tax, which we should never have abolished, and do things with

:32:22.:32:27.

regard to childcare. At the moment, childcare costs the average family

:32:28.:32:31.

as much as their mortgage, for goodness sake. We would give 25

:32:32.:32:35.

hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That

:32:36.:32:38.

would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about

:32:39.:32:46.

nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many

:32:47.:32:49.

people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody

:32:50.:32:54.

has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned

:32:55.:32:59.

by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so

:33:00.:33:02.

you should not take people out of national insurance, but the

:33:03.:33:05.

principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on

:33:06.:33:11.

its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference

:33:12.:33:14.

between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to

:33:15.:33:19.

most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and

:33:20.:33:22.

there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have

:33:23.:33:28.

concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the

:33:29.:33:34.

fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the

:33:35.:33:38.

personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The

:33:39.:33:40.

calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at

:33:41.:33:47.

the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate.

:33:48.:33:51.

It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree

:33:52.:33:56.

with Hazel, if you go to the 40% rate, it's the higher earners who

:33:57.:33:59.

benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where

:34:00.:34:04.

it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if

:34:05.:34:11.

you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don't

:34:12.:34:15.

have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the

:34:16.:34:21.

Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work

:34:22.:34:25.

hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be

:34:26.:34:29.

addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a

:34:30.:34:35.

massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back

:34:36.:34:38.

into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have

:34:39.:34:41.

nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or

:34:42.:34:45.

more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000

:34:46.:34:52.

full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a

:34:53.:34:55.

million including full-time students. All parties do this. It

:34:56.:35:01.

sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour

:35:02.:35:05.

Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual

:35:06.:35:09.

levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members

:35:10.:35:13.

want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think

:35:14.:35:17.

every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour.

:35:18.:35:21.

Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want

:35:22.:35:26.

to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to

:35:27.:35:31.

make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave

:35:32.:35:34.

reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your

:35:35.:35:44.

spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can

:35:45.:35:47.

make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public

:35:48.:35:51.

finances moving towards balance. We don't think the Labour Party will

:35:52.:35:55.

take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party

:35:56.:35:58.

want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider

:35:59.:36:04.

that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that.

:36:05.:36:10.

It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better

:36:11.:36:16.

doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking

:36:17.:36:20.

about any tax cuts when the deficit is over ?100 billion, and

:36:21.:36:23.

effectively, anything you propose today can only be financed by more

:36:24.:36:28.

borrowing. I totally agree with you. I said that this week. I thought the

:36:29.:36:33.

best thing would have no Budget. The main thing is to get the deficit

:36:34.:36:37.

down. My argument is is that you have an adjustment in tax rates it

:36:38.:36:40.

should be shared between the allowances and the higher rate, but

:36:41.:36:45.

I don't think that the progress on the deficit is something we can give

:36:46.:36:51.

up on. This is still a very long way to go. We're only halfway through.

:36:52.:36:57.

Hazel, does it make sense to borrow for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do

:36:58.:37:01.

this, but I agree with both Norman and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to

:37:02.:37:08.

borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely need to get the deficit down and get

:37:09.:37:12.

finances on a strong footing. But we also have to think about having some

:37:13.:37:16.

spending in the system that in the longer run saves us money. We all

:37:17.:37:20.

know we need to build new homes. I don't think it's necessarily the

:37:21.:37:25.

right priority to give people in London mortgage relief in terms of

:37:26.:37:30.

?600,000. We have to get the balance right. Sometimes it is right to

:37:31.:37:34.

spend to save. I'm afraid we have run out of time. There will be

:37:35.:37:40.

plenty more discussion in the lead up to the Budget on Wednesday.

:37:41.:37:43.

It's just gone 11:35am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say

:37:44.:37:47.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics

:37:48.:37:51.

Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, Frances O'Grady, the

:37:52.:37:54.

General Secretary of the TUC, joins us discuss the

:37:55.:38:05.

Hello once again from the Mhdlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And we'rd joined

:38:06.:38:11.

today by a pair of radical reforming mavericks. A Labour MP who's

:38:12.:38:14.

actually campaigned for electoral reform. And a Conservative LP who

:38:15.:38:18.

wants all`women short lists. Caroline Spelman, Conservathve MP

:38:19.:38:21.

for Meriden, and former Envhronment Secretary. And Richard Burddn,

:38:22.:38:25.

Labour MP for Birmingham Northfield, is a Shadow Transport Minister. A

:38:26.:38:32.

very warm welcome to you both. First of all today, let's t`lk about

:38:33.:38:35.

what George Osborne's Budget briefcase might have in store for us

:38:36.:38:39.

here. He was in our part of the country earlier this year, `t the

:38:40.:38:42.

headquarters in Coleshill, Warwickshire, of the car parts maker

:38:43.:38:45.

Sertec. 400 new jobs there were he said, a vote of confidence hn the

:38:46.:38:50.

Midlands and in his economic plan. And all the signs are that, on

:38:51.:38:54.

Wednesday, he'll be sticking to that plan. Plan A. And, Caroline, the

:38:55.:39:00.

problems with Plan A is that, in the public mind, it is so often equated

:39:01.:39:03.

to cuts, cuts, cuts. That mdans blame, blame, blame for your

:39:04.:39:05.

government, especially health workers with a very stingy pay deal.

:39:06.:39:11.

Let's be clear that Plan A has delivered the fastest rate of growth

:39:12.:39:14.

of any economy in Europe. And I think it absolutely vindicates the

:39:15.:39:19.

standards that George Osborne took. `` the stands. We inherited a

:39:20.:39:22.

mammoth deficit from the last government. And we've still got the

:39:23.:39:30.

job to finish off repairing the nation's finances. But

:39:31.:39:32.

notwithstanding that, 1.6 mhllion jobs are being created in the

:39:33.:39:35.

private sector. Many of thel here in the West Midlands. Huge success of

:39:36.:39:41.

companies like Jaguar Land Rover. So let's not take away from thd success

:39:42.:39:45.

of Plan A. No doubt that is an argument that he will put on

:39:46.:39:49.

Wednesday. But what do you think should be in that briefcase on

:39:50.:39:52.

Wednesday on budget day? Goodness knows. I mean, it is good to see

:39:53.:39:58.

things looking up a bit. But it s frankly taken long enough. @nd I

:39:59.:40:01.

think what this budget has got to address is what my constitudnts

:40:02.:40:04.

said. What ordinary people feel You know, I was just told this lorning

:40:05.:40:08.

about there being 1800 referrals to foodbanks, just in my area. Five

:40:09.:40:11.

years ago, there was 20 young people long`term unemployed. Now, xou're

:40:12.:40:17.

talking about 240. What we need we think, is a jobs guarantee for young

:40:18.:40:21.

people, so we start to give young people the opportunities th`t they

:40:22.:40:29.

deserve. More and more people, especially young people, ard feeling

:40:30.:40:32.

disconnected from this recovery elsewhere. A couple of things.

:40:33.:40:35.

People often misunderstand that it is the huge increase in energy

:40:36.:40:38.

prices globally that has made it very hard for people with their

:40:39.:40:41.

household budgets. You've got to keep the lights on. So you're going

:40:42.:40:45.

to pay your electricity bill. That means, if there is food avahlable

:40:46.:40:48.

that you can get from a foodbank, people will tend to go. And what

:40:49.:40:51.

about the million apprenticdships that are being created to connect

:40:52.:40:55.

young people at the end of their education with a job? I think that's

:40:56.:40:58.

been a very successful policy. Briefly, Richard, I heard Ed Balls

:40:59.:41:01.

in Birmingham saying that hd was daunted by the prospect of becoming

:41:02.:41:05.

Chancellor. Should a British public welcome a Chancellor who fedls

:41:06.:41:08.

daunted? I think it's perfectly realistic. I mean, when the next

:41:09.:41:12.

general election comes along, you will have had five years of frankly

:41:13.:41:16.

the wrong policies. So it's going to be a big, big task. But I think

:41:17.:41:19.

Caroline's right. Energy prhces are an issue. That's why we want to see

:41:20.:41:23.

a freeze. OK. Thank you. Still to come, the UKIP leader Nigel

:41:24.:41:27.

Farage under attack. Ridiculed at the Liberal Democrat conferdnce in a

:41:28.:41:30.

send`up that's gone viral on the internet. Then rounded on in the

:41:31.:41:33.

European Parliament by a former colleague. We'll have much, much

:41:34.:41:38.

more on all this coming up ` little later.

:41:39.:41:44.

Well, now, "To build more homes in sensible places. Making the most of

:41:45.:41:48.

every inch of brownfield land". That's the declared intent of the

:41:49.:41:51.

Communities Secretary, Eric Pickles. And yet, time and time again, we

:41:52.:41:55.

hear there's a dash by developers for greenfield sites, while

:41:56.:41:57.

brownfield ones lie untouchdd. Here's our BBC Stoke Political

:41:58.:41:59.

Reporter Phil McCann. It was all meant to look so

:42:00.:42:12.

different. Where neighbours once lived, now dereliction. Thotsands of

:42:13.:42:18.

terraced homes were meant to be knocked down across Stoke`on`Trent

:42:19.:42:20.

under the national Pathfinddr programme. People come down here and

:42:21.:42:27.

see these here. Then they sde that round the corner, and they don't

:42:28.:42:31.

want to buy these. There is such an eyesore around the corner. This was

:42:32.:42:35.

the vision of the future. A rejuvenated housing market that has

:42:36.:42:38.

been realised in some parts of the city. But elsewhere, the terraces

:42:39.:42:41.

have gone, but locals are still waiting for developers to move in.

:42:42.:42:45.

It would make a lot of diffdrence, because it would make the area look

:42:46.:42:49.

nice. And you would have a lot more people living around here. Hn 2 03,

:42:50.:42:53.

leaders here in North Staffordshire hoped their renewal scheme would

:42:54.:42:56.

lead to the demolition of around 14,500 houses. But when the

:42:57.:43:00.

government scrapped the schdme three years ago, fewer than 2000 have

:43:01.:43:03.

actually been knocked down. But they also hoped it would lead to the

:43:04.:43:07.

rebuilding of around 12,500 homes. But by 2011, only a few hundred had

:43:08.:43:13.

been completed. There is finally progress, though.

:43:14.:43:18.

On this site, 140 homes are being built where once terraces stood We

:43:19.:43:22.

are able to provide local investment in the economy. We are provhding

:43:23.:43:29.

seven new apprentices. 50% of the labour on`site will be from local

:43:30.:43:33.

community. We are investing in community projects. It helps

:43:34.:43:37.

regenerate the area as well as providing good quality houshng. The

:43:38.:43:40.

City Council in Stoke`on`Trdnt insists things are finally looking

:43:41.:43:43.

up. But admits developing ddrelict brownfield land is difficult. We

:43:44.:43:47.

know that there are more attractive sites, like the greenfield, but we

:43:48.:43:50.

know that we've got lots of brownfield sites. It's about how we

:43:51.:43:53.

make them more attractive to developers. The problem for places

:43:54.:43:58.

like Stoke`on`Trent is placds like this in nearby Newcastle`under`Lyme,

:43:59.:44:00.

where developers would rathdr build after the government changed

:44:01.:44:03.

planning rules. A recent proposal here was refused. But the fdar is

:44:04.:44:08.

the builders will just try `gain. There are significant numbers of

:44:09.:44:11.

sites, both within the borotgh and more so in the city of

:44:12.:44:19.

Stoke`on`Trent. But all brownfield sites that are begging for

:44:20.:44:22.

redevelopment. Clearly, if xou go ahead and build on greenfields,

:44:23.:44:25.

these sites will remain vac`nt and will be a blight on the landscape.

:44:26.:44:28.

Developers applying for planning permission are represented by

:44:29.:44:32.

companies like this one. So should the government intervene? The

:44:33.:44:36.

government needs to have a programme over and above its affordable

:44:37.:44:39.

programme, which is important. But a programme to get brownfield land

:44:40.:44:42.

cracking again and get the balance of brownfield and greenfield that

:44:43.:44:45.

currently isn't there. The government insists planning policies

:44:46.:44:47.

prioritise brownfield development. But developers are finding ht easier

:44:48.:44:55.

to prioritise the countryside. Yes, the challenges of building new

:44:56.:44:58.

homes where they wanted and not where they are not. Phil McCann

:44:59.:45:02.

reporting there. Let's get `n expert view on this from a leading

:45:03.:45:05.

consultant on planning, regdneration and the preservation of the

:45:06.:45:08.

countryside. Gerald Kells h`s long experience working with, among

:45:09.:45:10.

others, the Campaign to Protect Rural England. We've seen there a

:45:11.:45:14.

variety of explanations for this apparent shortfall of brownfield

:45:15.:45:17.

development. As an expert in this field, what is your explanation for

:45:18.:45:22.

what is happening? I think one of the bigger fundamental problems is

:45:23.:45:25.

this obsession with very long` term housing numbers. That forces local

:45:26.:45:28.

authorities to allocate large amounts of greenfield land. We had

:45:29.:45:32.

it under the regional space strategy. We were supposed to get

:45:33.:45:36.

rid of it. It still seems to linger on. The other issue that was raised

:45:37.:45:42.

there was about where is thd money to support brownfield development?

:45:43.:45:45.

We've seen in Stoke` on`Trent the loss of one form of funding. Places

:45:46.:45:49.

like the Black Country despdrately need jobs for local people, building

:45:50.:45:53.

local houses. We need to have that as well as the right planning rules.

:45:54.:46:02.

I'm not sure we're at a point where we can say that really brownfield

:46:03.:46:05.

land is getting prioritised over greenfield. And there are obvious

:46:06.:46:08.

difficulties, from the point of view of developers, often the cost of

:46:09.:46:11.

demolition. Sometimes this can involve contaminated land as well.

:46:12.:46:16.

So, in a way, you can understand if there is a greater attraction in

:46:17.:46:20.

simple greenfield development. Quite obviously, there are advant`ges in

:46:21.:46:23.

developing on a greenfield site You have to incentivise develophng on

:46:24.:46:26.

brownfield land. But it is not entirely that. There has bedn a long

:46:27.:46:34.

history over the lobbying that has been done by house` building

:46:35.:46:37.

interests to get greenfield land allocated. And once it is allocated,

:46:38.:46:41.

to have the easier option. @nd that is something which is very worrying

:46:42.:46:44.

with them the National Planning Policy Framework and the wax it is

:46:45.:46:47.

actually working out in Loc`l Authorities. And the pressure they

:46:48.:46:51.

are being put on to allocatd greenfield land. And yet, in

:46:52.:46:58.

Caroline's constituency, in North Solihull.

:46:59.:47:02.

In Richard's Longbridge, possibly one of the biggest brownfield sites

:47:03.:47:09.

of all, there has been a lot of both new build and refurbishment of

:47:10.:47:13.

existing stock. Yeah, some of that is hangovers from the past. But some

:47:14.:47:18.

of that is new and very valtable. But we are also seeing other things

:47:19.:47:22.

working against that. The government makes a very strong statement

:47:23.:47:25.

recently about green belt. But greenfield land which is outside the

:47:26.:47:28.

protected green belt has bedn very vulnerable. And you can see that

:47:29.:47:32.

across areas like Staffordshire and Warwickshire. I mentioned

:47:33.:47:33.

Longbridge, Richard, becausd in your constituency there, the govdrnment

:47:34.:47:36.

policy clearly does appear to be working. Well, I mean, therd are

:47:37.:47:39.

2000 houses being built there. And that is good news. But we rdally do

:47:40.:47:43.

need to get house` building going faster. And I think there are

:47:44.:47:46.

different ways we can do th`t. That's why we've set up this special

:47:47.:47:50.

commission to look at this. But one of the things we've got to get

:47:51.:47:53.

through to developers, something which Gerald was alluding to, is

:47:54.:47:56.

there's got to be that they have to know that, in a sense, if they don't

:47:57.:48:01.

use it, they are going to lose it. We've got to make sure that sites

:48:02.:48:04.

that could be developed for housing, and are sustainable, and th`t is

:48:05.:48:07.

important, actually are devdloped. Not just sitting there waithng for

:48:08.:48:11.

the price to go up. Eric Pickles walks the walk, talks the t`lk. Says

:48:12.:48:14.

he wants to see brownfield development. But under his watch,

:48:15.:48:17.

the record shows that it's just not catching up with where it ndeds to

:48:18.:48:21.

be, brownfield. Well, there is an enormous downtown in the hotsing

:48:22.:48:24.

market. And one of the big problems is that people were overstrdtched

:48:25.:48:27.

financially and the banks are reluctant to lend. But set `gainst

:48:28.:48:30.

that, right through that financial crisis, we've been building

:48:31.:48:32.

affordable homes in Solihull. Eric Pickles' department has givdn

:48:33.:48:35.

Solihull Council ?9 million worth of loan to get this programme going.

:48:36.:48:39.

But isn't it a drop in the bucket by comparison with the scale of the

:48:40.:48:42.

problem we've got? There ard actually a thousand extra homes in a

:48:43.:48:45.

borough where we've got housing waiting lists. The important point

:48:46.:48:50.

about regenerating council dstates, and you can do it anywhere hn the

:48:51.:48:54.

country, you can do that in Birmingham, is that the land values

:48:55.:48:57.

are sufficiently low that you can deliver affordable housing. Of

:48:58.:49:00.

course the developers want to build on greenfield, because they can sell

:49:01.:49:03.

expensive homes with a lovely view in greenfield sites. But wh`t isn't

:49:04.:49:08.

in place is no infrastructure. The advantage of a brownfield shte is

:49:09.:49:13.

the infrastructure is already there. It is usually close to work, to

:49:14.:49:16.

jobs, and a more sustainabld solution. Does that sound rdasonable

:49:17.:49:20.

before we go back to Gerald? I think that is fair. It is important we

:49:21.:49:24.

prioritise brownfield, but we got to be doing it in practice. And this is

:49:25.:49:28.

where I think another thing Gerald said is right. House`building has

:49:29.:49:31.

got to be linked to employmdnt creation. It's got to be linked to,

:49:32.:49:34.

in the jargon, regeneration. If we do that, we can get things going.

:49:35.:49:38.

But we haven't seen enough of that in the last few years. Quickly. And

:49:39.:49:42.

councils who do build more homes for people get a new homes bonus. And

:49:43.:49:46.

that is an incentive to regdnerate these sites. Final word on this to

:49:47.:49:49.

you, Gerald. If you ruled the world, what is your position? GERALD

:49:50.:49:53.

LAUGHS. The new homes bonus doesn't just go if they build on brownfield

:49:54.:49:57.

land, it goes wherever they build. So that doesn't get us out of this

:49:58.:50:01.

kind of conundrum. But one of the real issues is that if you go out to

:50:02.:50:05.

some of our villages around the area, and they are being intndated

:50:06.:50:08.

with applications to build, because of the allowances in the National

:50:09.:50:10.

Planning Policy Framework. Clearly, we could proceed further. Btt very

:50:11.:50:14.

briefly... Very important for all listeners is that, if a loc`l plan

:50:15.:50:17.

is in place to protect the villages, that's the most important thing

:50:18.:50:21.

That's it. Time is up. If they get it through. Thank you very luch

:50:22.:50:24.

Particular thanks to you, Gdrald, for being here today.

:50:25.:50:29.

Right, two months to go to the European elections. And, surprise

:50:30.:50:32.

surprise, UKIP are having the heat turned up on them. First thd Lib

:50:33.:50:35.

Dems attacked the "negative politics" of the smiling man

:50:36.:50:38.

drinking a pint and smoking a cigarette. Then a local MEP, who

:50:39.:50:42.

split from UKIP just months after being elected, rounded on Nhgel

:50:43.:50:45.

Farage's use of taxpayers' loney in the European Parliament. Elhzabeth

:50:46.:50:49.

Glinka explains. There now follows a partly satirical

:50:50.:50:55.

broadcast by the Liberal Delocrats. Solihull MP, Lorely Burt, pdrformed

:50:56.:50:58.

her own unique impersonation of the UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the

:50:59.:51:02.

party's conference in York. Complete with mask, pint of beer and

:51:03.:51:05.

obligatory cigarette. Hello, everybody. LAUGHTER. Nige hdre!

:51:06.:51:14.

I'm looking for my mate Nick. The clip has gone viral, with

:51:15.:51:18.

thousands of internet hits so far. Her Conservative opponent in next

:51:19.:51:21.

year's general election, Julian Knight, described her efforts as

:51:22.:51:23.

embarrassing. UKIP supporters called it petty. That was relatively gentle

:51:24.:51:29.

compared to what followed from West Midlands MEP, Nikki Sinclaire, in

:51:30.:51:40.

the European Parliament. Mr Farage, with unemployment still a problem

:51:41.:51:43.

across Europe and indeed thd UK does Mr Farage think it's a fair use

:51:44.:51:47.

of taxpayers' money, namely his secretarial allowance, to elploy not

:51:48.:51:50.

only his wife Kirsten, but his former mistress Annabel Fuller? Is

:51:51.:51:53.

this a responsible use of t`xpayers' money, Mr Farage? I don't sde any

:51:54.:51:58.

need to answer that at all. UKIP later added the comments were

:51:59.:52:02.

beneath contempt. Miss Fulldr said the allegations were false. Nikki

:52:03.:52:06.

Sinclaire is also currently the subject of an inquiry by West

:52:07.:52:09.

Midlands Police into accusations that she conspired to defratd the

:52:10.:52:11.

European Parliament over her expenses. An accusation she denies.

:52:12.:52:19.

Nikki Sinclaire, who'll be standing for her We Demand a Referendum Now

:52:20.:52:24.

party in the European electhons And, Caroline, in a way, thhs

:52:25.:52:27.

demonstrates that both Lorely and Nicki can go after Nigel Farage in a

:52:28.:52:31.

way that maybe your party is reluctant to? Because it dods have a

:52:32.:52:34.

habit of rebounding against the Tories when they go for UKIP in the

:52:35.:52:38.

past? That is something important to go for here. Voters in the West

:52:39.:52:42.

Midlands, in good faith, voted UKIP at the last set of European

:52:43.:52:47.

elections. And both UKIP MEPs have split from their party, takhng the

:52:48.:52:51.

funds of a member of the European Parliament to set up their own

:52:52.:52:56.

party. `` of a European party. I think that's a betrayal of trust.

:52:57.:53:02.

And I think people should think hard about that when they vote in the

:53:03.:53:05.

next European election. UKIP is a protest party. It takes frol all the

:53:06.:53:09.

parties. But I think the important point is, uniquely here in the West

:53:10.:53:12.

Midlands, those UKIP MEPs pdople thought they voted for are no longer

:53:13.:53:16.

UKIP. Well, there will be plenty of opportunity for UKIP and thd other

:53:17.:53:19.

two parties we're talking about here to have their say in the cotrse of

:53:20.:53:22.

the forthcoming campaign. Btt Richard, maybe you are not too keen

:53:23.:53:26.

to have a go at UKIP too hard? Because it might be in your party's

:53:27.:53:30.

interests for them to do re`sonably well this summer? It's cert`inly

:53:31.:53:33.

true the Conservatives have got a UKIP problem. And that is why.. You

:53:34.:53:37.

have as well. That is why you see the Prime Minister trying to play to

:53:38.:53:41.

the party's right wing. But I think that, as far as UKIP is concerned,

:53:42.:53:44.

we do need to understand wh`t they are. There was a councillor recently

:53:45.:53:48.

that, for goodness sake, was blaming the winter floods on gay marriage.

:53:49.:53:52.

It is a pretty weird party. If you are going to have a go at the Prime

:53:53.:53:56.

Minister, I suppose maybe they can go back at you and say Ed Mhliband

:53:57.:54:00.

is still on the fence. Becatse, in a way, what we have seen this week is

:54:01.:54:03.

a compromise from Ed Miliband between those in the party who

:54:04.:54:07.

really feel that they don't want to be distracted in government by the

:54:08.:54:10.

European issue. And the othdrs that feel we've got to say something to

:54:11.:54:14.

the electorate, because people think it is a metropolitan elite hn the

:54:15.:54:17.

party that looks out of touch. Yes, what Ed Miliband did this wdek was

:54:18.:54:22.

to tell it as it is. What wd said is that, if there is going to be a

:54:23.:54:26.

transfer of powers to the Etropean Union, there would be a refdrendum.

:54:27.:54:29.

Is that likely? Probably not. I mean, that is simply telling it as

:54:30.:54:33.

it is and I think it is realistic policy. Interestingly as well, it's

:54:34.:54:36.

been welcomed by most of thd wealth creators in this country. OK,

:54:37.:54:39.

briefly, Caroline, ructions in your party if you come behind UKHP and

:54:40.:54:43.

Labour in the summer election? I think it is going to be a dhfficult

:54:44.:54:46.

set of European elections. We need to be clear about that. Bec`use

:54:47.:54:50.

people tend to use it as a protest vote. But also, the turnout goes

:54:51.:54:54.

right down, down below 10% hn some parts of my constituency. I would

:54:55.:54:57.

just urge people to think h`rd about this. 50% of our exports ard to the

:54:58.:55:01.

European Union. And to focus really on this question of who you want to

:55:02.:55:05.

represent you. OK, thank yot. Well, suddenly it's "Greater

:55:06.:55:08.

Birmingham" this. "Greater Birmingham" that. The Greatdr

:55:09.:55:14.

Birmingham Chambers of Commdrce Greater Birmingham Professional

:55:15.:55:16.

Services Academy. And most significantly, the Greater

:55:17.:55:18.

Birmingham and Solihull Loc`l Enterprise Partnership. And it was

:55:19.:55:21.

their chairman, Andy Street, who explained in the Telegraph on Sunday

:55:22.:55:25.

why he wanted to get rid of that "second city" tag.

:55:26.:55:36.

Richard, as a Birmingham MP, is Greater Birmingham going to fly as

:55:37.:55:43.

an idea? I hear people in the Black Country say, "Hands off, Birmingham!

:55:44.:55:48.

No more land grabs, thank you." I think the key thing is th`t, in

:55:49.:55:52.

this region, we've got to work together. And I've got to s`y Andy

:55:53.:55:56.

Street and the local enterprise partnership have been doing a good

:55:57.:56:00.

job on that. And we maybe do need to get over something of a hang`up with

:56:01.:56:03.

titles. If you look at Manchester, the fact that the city of M`nchester

:56:04.:56:07.

geographically has got Salford as part of it. They don't see

:56:08.:56:10.

themselves as rivals on that. They see themselves as part of a Greater

:56:11.:56:13.

Manchester project. And I think we can do the same in this part of the

:56:14.:56:18.

Midlands. Caroline, you are someone that's taken a long interest in

:56:19.:56:21.

these local government structures thereof. Are we saying, in ` way,

:56:22.:56:25.

maybe Birmingham is too big for some things? Like children's services

:56:26.:56:30.

notoriously. Maybe too small for, say, Digby Jones' vision of the

:56:31.:56:33.

wider West Midlands and the structural planning and transport

:56:34.:56:36.

that looks at wider region? It's not easy for the surrounding sm`ller

:56:37.:56:39.

local authorities to work together with such a huge local authority.

:56:40.:56:44.

The largest in the land. But I think they've chosen to be part of the

:56:45.:56:47.

Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Economic Partnership

:56:48.:56:49.

demonstrating they want to work together. But they will want to keep

:56:50.:56:54.

their identities separate and clear. I mean, of the most important

:56:55.:56:57.

regional, indeed national, `ssets are in Solihull. Birmingham Airport,

:56:58.:57:00.

for example. The NEC. so wotld you support the idea in principle? A

:57:01.:57:05.

quick idea from each of you on that? I think that it should be Greater

:57:06.:57:08.

Birmingham and Solihull. Solihull is the engine room in the West Midlands

:57:09.:57:12.

economy. I'm a Solihull Borough MP. You would expect me to say that

:57:13.:57:15.

Richard? I think we can havd the title and we can still have the

:57:16.:57:18.

identities for Solihull and elsewhere. Interestingly, the thing

:57:19.:57:21.

about Birmingham's size. Th`t's why devolution inside Birminghal is

:57:22.:57:25.

important. I say that as a Birmingham MP. Interesting stuff.

:57:26.:57:28.

Thank you very much indeed for the moment.

:57:29.:57:31.

Well, let's catch`up with more of the political developments that have

:57:32.:57:34.

been making the news over the past seven days. Our regular round`up in

:57:35.:57:38.

60 Seconds is brought to us this week by BBC Midlands Today's Sarah

:57:39.:57:47.

Falkland. Medical professionals in Shropshire

:57:48.:57:49.

are suggesting a brand`new hospital with a state`of`the art acchdent and

:57:50.:57:53.

emergency unit could be built as part of changes to the NHS hn the

:57:54.:57:55.

county. Around 20,000 new jobs could be

:57:56.:57:58.

created in Staffordshire after a ?20 million City Deal was agreed between

:57:59.:58:01.

the government and local authorities.

:58:02.:58:03.

Plans for Muslim cemetery in Solihull have been withdrawn. More

:58:04.:58:07.

than 160 objections were made about the application to build thd private

:58:08.:58:11.

cemetery near Catherine`de`Barnes. 20mph speed limits are to bd rolled

:58:12.:58:17.

out in parts of Birmingham. In keeping with the spirit of the

:58:18.:58:19.

policy, it's being introducdd slowly, starting in the citx centre.

:58:20.:58:24.

And a protest at Westminster as MPs again debated the Gloucestershire

:58:25.:58:27.

and Somerset badger cull. It was deemed ineffective by indepdndent

:58:28.:58:34.

scientific assessors. And this well`known Brummie bird`watcher

:58:35.:58:38.

isn't impressed. I seriouslx think this government is one of the

:58:39.:58:41.

biggest enemies of the Brithsh countryside and its wildlifd that

:58:42.:58:47.

there has ever been. Bill Oddie clearly not a fan,

:58:48.:58:51.

Caroline. If you were still Environment Secretary, would you

:58:52.:58:54.

have done this badger cull differently from how Owen P`terson

:58:55.:58:58.

is handling it? I made the original decision, because there are no easy

:58:59.:59:02.

answers. There is no vaccind that will survive being consumed by the

:59:03.:59:05.

badger to vaccinate it against TB. There is no easy answer. Me`nwhile,

:59:06.:59:11.

we are putting down 28,000 cows a year at a cost to the taxpaxer of

:59:12.:59:15.

?100 million. It's a very dhfficult one. Is there a serious risk here?

:59:16.:59:22.

We have had the terrible history of the beef ban. Is there a danger of a

:59:23.:59:26.

similar thing happening to dairy products? The problem is, if you

:59:27.:59:30.

vaccinate cattle, we would not be able to export it, because ht masks

:59:31.:59:34.

the disease. So really, my successor is between a rock and a hard place.

:59:35.:59:38.

Nowhere else in the world h`s TB been eliminated from cattle without

:59:39.:59:41.

also tackling it in the wildlife population. What would you say to

:59:42.:59:44.

Bill Oddie, who thinks that your government's record on the

:59:45.:59:47.

countryside generally is terrible? I wouldn't agree. That's a swdeping

:59:48.:59:51.

statement and ignores the f`ct that they introduced the first n`tural

:59:52.:59:54.

environment White Paper for 20 years. Biodiversity offsetthng,

:59:55.:59:57.

which I'm sure Bill is all hn favour of. Nobody wants to kill badgers. We

:59:58.:00:01.

love badgers. But we have also got to eradicate the disease. Briefly,

:00:02.:00:05.

as a town MP, are you one of these urban MPs who know little and care

:00:06.:00:08.

less about the badger cull, Richard? I am also on the fringe of the

:00:09.:00:11.

countryside in Longbridge, of course. But TB is a dreadful

:00:12.:00:15.

disease, TB in cattle, no qtestion. But the badger cull was not

:00:16.:00:18.

effective, is not effective, and all too often can be cruel. And that is

:00:19.:00:23.

why I voted against carrying on with the badger cull. OK, let's leave it

:00:24.:00:26.

there. Thank you both very luch indeed. My thanks to Caroline

:00:27.:00:32.

Spelman and Richard Burden. Coming up later this week, the man

:00:33.:00:36.

responsible for health care across a great swathe of our area will be in

:00:37.:00:40.

the hot seat. Neil Carr, Ch`irman of the South Staffordshire and

:00:41.:00:42.

Shropshire NHS Trust, will be joining Jim Hawkins on BBC Radio

:00:43.:00:45.

Shropshire. That's on Thursday morning from ten o'clock. I'm sure

:00:46.:00:49.

there will be plenty to talk about on BBC Shropshire. This, though is

:00:50.:00:52.

where we rejoin Andrew Neil. industrial action is a sign of

:00:53.:01:00.

failure marked success. -- not success. Andrew, back to you.

:01:01.:01:10.

Has George Osborne got a rabbit in his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor

:01:11.:01:15.

find a way to help the squeezed middle? And how do Labour respond?

:01:16.:01:16.

All questions for The Week Ahead. And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to

:01:17.:01:27.

discuss the budget is the general secretary of the Trades Union

:01:28.:01:30.

Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome back to the programme. I know the

:01:31.:01:35.

TUC has a submission, but if you could pick one thing that you wanted

:01:36.:01:38.

the Chancellor to do above all, what would it be? We want a budget for

:01:39.:01:45.

working people, which means we have to crack the long-term problem of

:01:46.:01:49.

investment in the British economy. Certainly I would like the

:01:50.:01:56.

Chancellor to merit that title they want of the new workers party, and

:01:57.:02:00.

take action on living standards but if they're going to do that it's got

:02:01.:02:09.

to be about unlocking investment. In the period where the economy has

:02:10.:02:14.

been flat-lining there has been little business investment, but

:02:15.:02:17.

there are signs towards the end of last year that it is beginning to

:02:18.:02:23.

pick up. But a long way to go. The problem is we have key industries

:02:24.:02:26.

like construction and manufacturing that are still smaller than they

:02:27.:02:31.

were before the recession. The government itself, of course, has

:02:32.:02:35.

slashed its own capital investment budget by half. There is plenty of

:02:36.:02:41.

good and important work that needs to be done from building houses to

:02:42.:02:45.

improving the transport system, to improving our schools. And the

:02:46.:02:50.

government really needs to pick up that shovel and start investing in

:02:51.:02:55.

our economy to get the decent jobs we need, the pay increases we need,

:02:56.:02:59.

and that in itself will help stimulate demand. It was Alistair

:03:00.:03:07.

Darling who cut in 2011, and it s interesting that Ed Balls in his

:03:08.:03:10.

plans for the next parliament would run a current budget surplus by the

:03:11.:03:14.

end of the parliament as opposed to George Osborne who would have an

:03:15.:03:18.

overall budget surplus. That gives Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to

:03:19.:03:23.

do what you talk about, but he is reticent to talk about it. He does

:03:24.:03:27.

not want to say that he has an opportunity to spend on investment

:03:28.:03:30.

because he fears if he says it he will be attacked by the

:03:31.:03:32.

Conservatives for being irresponsible. Why is business doing

:03:33.:03:40.

this? The recession was deeper than any since the war and the recovery

:03:41.:03:43.

was slower than almost any since the war. The lag, the time it takes to

:03:44.:03:49.

get over that is longer than anyone expected. I read the same evidence

:03:50.:03:56.

as you towards the end of last year pointing to money being released,

:03:57.:03:58.

and it depends what it is released on, whether it is capital investment

:03:59.:04:03.

or bringing in people on higher wages. The one surprise in the

:04:04.:04:07.

downturn is how well the employment figures have done, but they have not

:04:08.:04:12.

invested in new capacity and they are sitting on a lot of dosh. I

:04:13.:04:15.

looked at one set of figures that said if you took the biggest company

:04:16.:04:22.

in Britain, they have about 715 billion pounds in corporate treasury

:04:23.:04:25.

-- the biggest companies. I think it's reduced a little but they are

:04:26.:04:32.

sitting on a mountain in dash of skills. Yes, but they're not

:04:33.:04:36.

investing in skills, wages, or sustainable jobs. The new jobs we

:04:37.:04:40.

have seen created since 2010, the vast majority of them have been in

:04:41.:04:46.

low paid industries, and they are often zero hours, or insecure, or

:04:47.:04:51.

part-time. So it's not delivering a recovery for ordinary working

:04:52.:04:56.

people. Government ministers, as you know when you lobby them, they are

:04:57.:04:59.

anxious to make out that they know the job is not done and the recovery

:05:00.:05:04.

has just begun, but the one bit they are privately proud of, although

:05:05.:05:09.

they can't explain it, is how many private-sector jobs have been

:05:10.:05:14.

created. A lot of unions have done sensible deals with employers to

:05:15.:05:17.

protect jobs through this period, but it's not sustainable. The

:05:18.:05:22.

average worker in Britain today is now ?2000 a year worse off in real

:05:23.:05:27.

terms than they were. On a pay against price comparison? It doesn't

:05:28.:05:36.

take into account tax cuts. The raising of the personal allowance is

:05:37.:05:45.

far outweighed by the raising VAT. Does the raising of the threshold

:05:46.:05:48.

which the Lib Dems are proud of and the Tories are trying to trade

:05:49.:05:51.

credit for, does it matter to your members? -- take credit for. It

:05:52.:05:57.

matters that it is eclipsed by the cuts in benefits and know what is

:05:58.:06:01.

conned any more. We're going to hear a lot about the raising of the

:06:02.:06:05.

allowance, but as long as the real value of work, tax credits, things

:06:06.:06:11.

like that, people won't feel it in their pocket, and they will find it

:06:12.:06:14.

harder and harder to look after their family. When you look at the

:06:15.:06:17.

other things that could take over from consumer spending which has

:06:18.:06:22.

driven the recovery, held by house price rising in the south, it is

:06:23.:06:25.

exports and business investment and you look at the state of the

:06:26.:06:28.

Eurozone and the emerging markets which are now in trouble, and the

:06:29.:06:33.

winter seems to have derailed the US recovery. It won't be exports.

:06:34.:06:38.

Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think that will contribute to growth until

:06:39.:06:46.

2015 -- OBI. So the figures we should be looking at our business

:06:47.:06:52.

investment. And also the deficit. The deficit is 111 billion, and that

:06:53.:06:56.

is a problem, because we are not at the end of the cutting process,

:06:57.:07:01.

there are huge cuts to be made. I understand we are only a third of

:07:02.:07:05.

the way through. That will definitely affect business

:07:06.:07:09.

confidence. It is clear that the strategy has failed. Borrowing has

:07:10.:07:12.

gone up and it's not delivered improved living standards and better

:07:13.:07:16.

quality jobs, so cutting out of the recession is not going to work. The

:07:17.:07:22.

structural budget deficit was going to be eliminated three weeks today

:07:23.:07:28.

under the original plan. They missed target after target. Every economist

:07:29.:07:33.

has their own definition of that. I think Mark Carney is right when he

:07:34.:07:37.

says that fundamentally the economy is unbalanced and it is not

:07:38.:07:41.

sustainable, growth is not sustainable. But if it clicked on,

:07:42.:07:49.

it would be more balanced. It is not just north and south and

:07:50.:07:52.

manufacturing a way out with services, but it is also between the

:07:53.:07:58.

rich and everybody else. What do you make of the fact that there will

:07:59.:08:01.

effectively be another freezing public sector pay, or at least no

:08:02.:08:06.

more than 1%? Not even that for nurses and health workers. But they

:08:07.:08:14.

will get 3% progression pay. 70 of nurses will not get any pay rise at

:08:15.:08:18.

all. They get no progression pay at all. I think this is smack in the

:08:19.:08:24.

mouth. Smack in the mouth to dedicated health care workers who

:08:25.:08:28.

will feel very, very discontented about the decision. Danny

:08:29.:08:33.

Alexander, I saw him appealing to health workers do not move to strike

:08:34.:08:38.

ballots and said they should talk to their department. But about what? Is

:08:39.:08:44.

that real pay cut has been imposed, what are workers left with? So do

:08:45.:08:50.

you expect as a result of yet more tough controls on public sector pay

:08:51.:08:57.

that unrest is inevitable? I know some unions will be consulting with

:08:58.:09:01.

their members, but ultimately it's always members who decide what to

:09:02.:09:06.

do. It does seem to me insulting not to at least be honest and say that

:09:07.:09:11.

we are cutting real pay of nurses, health care workers, on the back of

:09:12.:09:18.

a ?3 billion reorganisation of the NHS that nobody wanted and nobody

:09:19.:09:24.

voted for. Their long-term changes taking place here that almost talks

:09:25.:09:29.

about -- there are long-term changes. It is how lower percentage

:09:30.:09:37.

wages have become of GDP on how big the percentage of profits is. It

:09:38.:09:40.

seems to me there is a strong case for some kind of realignment there.

:09:41.:09:46.

The biggest event of my life, in this world, is the entry of a couple

:09:47.:09:50.

of billion more people into the labour supply. At the end of the

:09:51.:09:53.

Cold War, India and China plugged into the global economy. If there is

:09:54.:09:58.

a greater supply of that factor of production, logically you conclude

:09:59.:10:01.

that wages will fall or stagnate and that has been the story in this

:10:02.:10:06.

country and America and large parts of Western Europe in the last

:10:07.:10:09.

generation. What is not possible is for governments to do much about

:10:10.:10:14.

it. They can ameliorate it at the margins, but the idea that the

:10:15.:10:16.

government controls living standards, which has become popular

:10:17.:10:20.

over the last six months, and the Labour Party have in establishing

:10:21.:10:25.

that, and I don't think it's true. George Osborne's options are

:10:26.:10:29.

astonishingly limited compared to public expectations. If wages have

:10:30.:10:34.

reached a modern record low as percentage of GDP, who is going to

:10:35.:10:40.

champion the wage earner? We have lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed

:10:41.:10:46.

away, so who is the champion? The trade union movement is the champion

:10:47.:10:51.

of ordinary workers. We need those larger-than-life figures that we

:10:52.:10:57.

will mess. Have you got them yet? We have a generation of workers coming

:10:58.:11:01.

through. One thing about the loss of Bob Crow is that the whole union

:11:02.:11:05.

movement has responded strongly to that, and we want to say that we are

:11:06.:11:09.

strong and united and here to stand up for working people and we will

:11:10.:11:14.

fight as hard as Bob Crow did. Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony

:11:15.:11:18.

Benn, we can be sure they will not come from Eton because they all have

:11:19.:11:22.

jobs in the government. I want to put up on the screen what even

:11:23.:11:25.

Michael Gove was saying about this coterie of Old Etonian 's.

:11:26.:11:35.

He's right, is he not? He's absolutely right. We have the idea

:11:36.:11:44.

of the manifesto being written by five people from Eton and one from

:11:45.:11:50.

Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of social mobility that George Osborne,

:11:51.:11:54.

who had the disadvantage of going to Saint Pauls has made it into that

:11:55.:11:59.

inner circle. Here is the question, what is Michael Gove up to? If you

:12:00.:12:04.

saw the response from George Osborne, there was no slap down and

:12:05.:12:07.

they know this is an area they are weak on an David Cameron will not

:12:08.:12:11.

comment on it. If this had been a Labour shadow minister making a

:12:12.:12:15.

similarly disloyal statement, they might have been shot at dawn. But

:12:16.:12:20.

there is a real tolerance from Michael Gove to go freelance which

:12:21.:12:25.

comes from George Osborne. It's about highlighting educational

:12:26.:12:27.

reforms that he wants to turn every school in to eat and so it won't

:12:28.:12:31.

happen in the future. But it's also pointing out who did not go to Eton

:12:32.:12:35.

school and who would be the best candidate to replace David Cameron

:12:36.:12:38.

as leader, George Osborne, and who did go to Eton school, Boris

:12:39.:12:42.

Johnson. Michael Gove is on manoeuvres to destroy Boris

:12:43.:12:50.

Johnson's chances of being leader. It's a good job they don't have an

:12:51.:12:54.

election to worry about. Hold on. I think they are out of touch with

:12:55.:12:59.

businesses as well as working people. You ask about who is talking

:13:00.:13:03.

about wage earners. Businesses are. They are worried that unless living

:13:04.:13:06.

standards rise again there will be nobody there to buy anything. We are

:13:07.:13:12.

running out of time, but the TUC, are enthusiastic about HS2? We

:13:13.:13:18.

supported. We think it's the kind of infrastructure project that we need

:13:19.:13:22.

to invest in long-term. He could, if we get it right, rebalance north and

:13:23.:13:26.

south and create good jobs along the way -- it could. Thank you very much

:13:27.:13:33.

tool. I have to say that every week -- thank you very much to you all.

:13:34.:13:37.

That's all for today. I'll be back next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn

:13:38.:13:41.

will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics.

:13:42.:13:46.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:47.:13:48.

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