04/05/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands


04/05/2014

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

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re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

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custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

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of the Troubles. That's our top story.

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He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

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electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

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Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

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And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

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And in the Midlands, we're talking likely to be a good

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And in the Midlands, we're talking elections, too: European, local and

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a general election just a year away. Bubbling up nicely. The 30 Midlands

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marginals where elections are won and lost.

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questions of identity, immigration and independence. We have a table

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full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.

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And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the

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business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be

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throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.

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First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a

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fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with

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the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has

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claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it

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does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern

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Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he

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might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry

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Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the

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most notorious cases of the Troubles.

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The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December

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1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in

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1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the

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Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes

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pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:

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In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the

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murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent

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of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs

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McConville. We were hoping to speak to the

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Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an

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interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from

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Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And

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the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams

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said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the

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police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we

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have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in

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what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he

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wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet

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that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we

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believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of

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people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves

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that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the

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moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of

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the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The

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PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other

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high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people

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has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were

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interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they

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have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't

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got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the

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PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference

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in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from

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the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the

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peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in

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local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have

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powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is

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a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and

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making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react

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if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.

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If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern

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Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious

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ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a

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very important role to play to support the police service here. We

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have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will

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not accept political interference by a small number of people in the

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police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political

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policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we

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have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams

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being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from

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the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of

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evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why

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should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you

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expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the

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matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to

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Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a

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range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made

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from people, including from people who didn't want their statements

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released until they have died. who didn't want their statements

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was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process

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fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and

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we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and

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British and privately with the Irish and

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process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the

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woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat

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out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What

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question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile

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and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to

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use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.

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Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in

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days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the

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peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain

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of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having

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mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you

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have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,

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you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell

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but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.

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Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no

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action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a

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one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by

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the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these

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inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with

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the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of

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real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping

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he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if

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everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of

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the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster

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to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees

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himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern

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Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very

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revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble

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Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared

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don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the

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Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which

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it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during

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the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to

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tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and

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military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for

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the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the

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confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if

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even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave

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it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election

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campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning

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local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of

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the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his

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promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.

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And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with

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Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the

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UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show

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this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague

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promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any

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intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband

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wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the

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last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can

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to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they

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invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined

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now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not

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without problems, they took place during the campaign period and

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disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people

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getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be

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helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of

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the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is

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not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be

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negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should

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have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that

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will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,

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the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election

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campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than

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local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically

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important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for

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example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this

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Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the

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previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?

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Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.

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There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local

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elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what

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you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.

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But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know

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that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --

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Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so

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people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does

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the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already

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promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it

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before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really

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trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless

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you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an

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in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at

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which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It

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is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,

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that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was

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no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There

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was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that

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up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will

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have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty

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had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a

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referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,

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having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our

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relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in

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this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,

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most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not

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what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing

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in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more

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of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and

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people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been

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looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are

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considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message

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here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are

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likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making

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these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us

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further away from returning powers to this country, further from a

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referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,

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and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,

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and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so

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over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people

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considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do

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not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to

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tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years

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ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU

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budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us

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into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a

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referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe

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it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising

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and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote

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Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in

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Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission

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has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and

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vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It

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goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed

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that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said

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they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they

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regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.

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What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step

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further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When

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people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the

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MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above

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left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not

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delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote

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in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to

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the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this

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economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared

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to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active

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Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued

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by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country

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meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last

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weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and

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local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who

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says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of

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say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,

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you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to

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Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you

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must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your

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members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time

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travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,

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where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps

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pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting

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Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,

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Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a

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YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,

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Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP

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4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?

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Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local

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elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say

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what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local

:22:54.:22:57.

elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried

:22:58.:23:01.

to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not

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unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a

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European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has

:23:10.:23:12.

been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example

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every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000

:23:16.:23:21.

back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We

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are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to

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tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop

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banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last

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general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't

:23:54.:23:58.

win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it

:23:59.:24:03.

doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out

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to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the

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voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before

:24:15.:24:16.

the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point

:24:17.:24:24.

that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a

:24:25.:24:28.

politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over

:24:29.:24:33.

a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look

:24:34.:24:39.

at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket

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case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting

:24:44.:24:48.

every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the

:24:49.:24:53.

developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the

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people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the

:24:57.:25:01.

right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car

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keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a

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pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting

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through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this

:25:15.:25:21.

morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do

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you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any

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kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,

:25:33.:25:40.

expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants

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to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He

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wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there

:25:58.:26:10.

be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people

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have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been

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very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests

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that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American

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project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to

:26:29.:26:33.

be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,

:26:34.:26:37.

thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal

:26:38.:26:40.

Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row

:26:41.:26:44.

with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with

:26:45.:26:50.

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on

:26:51.:26:54.

a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the

:26:55.:26:58.

train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local

:26:59.:27:02.

government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the

:27:03.:27:08.

Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have

:27:09.:27:13.

prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain

:27:14.:27:18.

in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of

:27:19.:27:22.

many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he

:27:23.:27:30.

is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in

:27:31.:27:35.

making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting

:27:36.:27:41.

role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British

:27:42.:27:44.

criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted

:27:45.:27:51.

prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out

:27:52.:27:54.

everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,

:27:55.:28:01.

being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find

:28:02.:28:06.

you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because

:28:07.:28:09.

you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that

:28:10.:28:13.

you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost

:28:14.:28:18.

impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of

:28:19.:28:22.

Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,

:28:23.:28:27.

inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has

:28:28.:28:32.

demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a

:28:33.:28:36.

lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you

:28:37.:28:42.

and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime

:28:43.:28:46.

Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,

:28:47.:28:52.

I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from

:28:53.:28:58.

Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?

:28:59.:29:05.

No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where

:29:06.:29:10.

has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the

:29:11.:29:19.

morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any

:29:20.:29:23.

kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This

:29:24.:29:27.

is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems

:29:28.:29:34.

pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full

:29:35.:29:38.

bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is

:29:39.:29:43.

taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a

:29:44.:29:53.

health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for

:29:54.:29:57.

dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick

:29:58.:30:01.

Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has

:30:02.:30:06.

to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting

:30:07.:30:12.

that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of

:30:13.:30:22.

warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by

:30:23.:30:26.

catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about

:30:27.:30:36.

knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the

:30:37.:30:42.

Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses

:30:43.:30:46.

share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing

:30:47.:30:52.

to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the

:30:53.:30:55.

week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most

:30:56.:31:04.

likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can

:31:05.:31:08.

guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been

:31:09.:31:13.

confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great

:31:14.:31:19.

for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride

:31:20.:31:25.

home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce

:31:26.:31:31.

joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely

:31:32.:31:37.

to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what

:31:38.:31:42.

would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe

:31:43.:31:46.

credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the

:31:47.:31:52.

most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think

:31:53.:31:58.

the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions

:31:59.:32:06.

that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as

:32:07.:32:10.

the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on

:32:11.:32:14.

about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do

:32:15.:32:21.

think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely

:32:22.:32:32.

hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out

:32:33.:32:36.

there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried

:32:37.:32:42.

that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we

:32:43.:32:47.

want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you

:32:48.:32:51.

lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will

:32:52.:32:58.

be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been

:32:59.:33:01.

spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the

:33:02.:33:09.

European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten

:33:10.:33:14.

years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership

:33:15.:33:20.

and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every

:33:21.:33:24.

developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe

:33:25.:33:29.

may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are

:33:30.:33:34.

going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence

:33:35.:33:41.

to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is

:33:42.:33:46.

something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004

:33:47.:33:52.

manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job

:33:53.:33:57.

losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?

:33:58.:34:05.

Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any

:34:06.:34:12.

rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never

:34:13.:34:16.

recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had

:34:17.:34:23.

not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...

:34:24.:34:28.

Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy

:34:29.:34:34.

is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control

:34:35.:34:39.

over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have

:34:40.:34:49.

always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It

:34:50.:34:53.

hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We

:34:54.:35:00.

recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are

:35:01.:35:05.

not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I

:35:06.:35:13.

didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an

:35:14.:35:19.

entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there

:35:20.:35:27.

will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we

:35:28.:35:32.

are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get

:35:33.:35:36.

this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of

:35:37.:35:42.

jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the

:35:43.:35:46.

Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of

:35:47.:35:52.

deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it

:35:53.:35:57.

out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are

:35:58.:36:01.

working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery

:36:02.:36:06.

for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that

:36:07.:36:11.

have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would

:36:12.:36:16.

the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You

:36:17.:36:24.

have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling

:36:25.:36:28.

to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough

:36:29.:36:32.

single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,

:36:33.:36:38.

Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what

:36:39.:36:43.

you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by

:36:44.:36:48.

consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be

:36:49.:36:55.

transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You

:36:56.:37:00.

have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more

:37:01.:37:03.

centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would

:37:04.:37:10.

join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all

:37:11.:37:14.

member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not

:37:15.:37:21.

envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud

:37:22.:37:27.

party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?

:37:28.:37:34.

Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is

:37:35.:37:38.

dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are

:37:39.:37:43.

not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the

:37:44.:37:47.

instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to

:37:48.:37:50.

withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you

:37:51.:38:00.

want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it

:38:01.:38:04.

out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the

:38:05.:38:09.

general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the

:38:10.:38:17.

middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's

:38:18.:38:24.

the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a

:38:25.:38:28.

deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of

:38:29.:38:33.

it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which

:38:34.:38:39.

is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds

:38:40.:38:42.

and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the

:38:43.:38:46.

same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with

:38:47.:38:50.

others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,

:38:51.:38:58.

their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We

:38:59.:39:01.

Hello once again from the Midlands. now.

:39:02.:39:16.

Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And with almost

:39:17.:39:20.

exactly a year to go to the general election, we're joined today by

:39:21.:39:23.

three new candidates hoping to enter Parliament. Lucy Allan,

:39:24.:39:26.

Conservative, will be aiming to overturn a Labour majority of under

:39:27.:39:33.

1,000 at Telford in Shropshire. For Labour, Lynnette Kelly hopes to

:39:34.:39:36.

deprive the Conservatives of their 3,500 majority in Warwick and

:39:37.:39:38.

Leamington, while the Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Adams has to

:39:39.:39:41.

contend with an 11,000 Conservative majority in Stratford`on`Avon.

:39:42.:39:56.

No wonder this year's party conference season is billed as the

:39:57.:39:59.

big opportunity for the parties to tune up their messages for next May!

:40:00.:40:03.

But could the Conservatives' main event in Birmingham be the last big

:40:04.:40:07.

party conference in the city for the foreseeable future?Marketing

:40:08.:40:13.

Birmingham tell me it could well be. All but 5% of its ?1.5 million

:40:14.:40:17.

events budget is being spent on hosting the Conservatives in

:40:18.:40:21.

September. The deal was signed off three years ago by the then

:40:22.:40:24.

Conservative council leader Mike, now Lord Whitby. He says each

:40:25.:40:31.

conference earns ?20 million for the local economy and warns the field

:40:32.:40:34.

will now be wide open for rival cities, like Manchester and

:40:35.:40:43.

Liverpool. It does seem like a sort of false

:40:44.:40:49.

economy, given the kudos it brings into the region and the investment

:40:50.:40:54.

in the local economy. You have to look at it from Birmingham

:40:55.:40:59.

council's point of view. 95% of their budget going on one conference

:41:00.:41:07.

seems disproportionate. If the return is ?20 million, there needs

:41:08.:41:15.

to be a balancing act. But local businesses that benefit should also

:41:16.:41:19.

be putting money in to attracting these ventures. What do you say to a

:41:20.:41:26.

Labour Birmingham MP who says it adds insult to injury that a

:41:27.:41:33.

government is in effect getting a subsidy to holds its conference

:41:34.:41:41.

here? You have to ask what an international conference centre is

:41:42.:41:45.

for? There will be cities queueing up to have that boost in business,

:41:46.:41:52.

tourism and the economy. In Telford, we have the international centre

:41:53.:41:58.

that hosts cheerleaders, Nigel Farage. I am sure we would like to

:41:59.:42:05.

pose the Tory party as well. The Liberal Democrats were in coalition

:42:06.:42:09.

in Birmingham three years ago. Does this matter? It definitely does. All

:42:10.:42:20.

of the parties have experienced a decline in people being able to

:42:21.:42:26.

participate. Birmingham is so centralised. When I went to a party

:42:27.:42:33.

conference in Birmingham, it was fantastic. I just think there has

:42:34.:42:44.

got to be management also between investing and bringing investment

:42:45.:42:46.

into the area. Still to come: At least there's one

:42:47.:42:49.

other party conference that'll be coming to Birmingham this autumn.

:42:50.:42:53.

The Greens currently have more seats on more Midlands councils than ever

:42:54.:42:56.

before. Now they're carrying the fight against HS2 out on the local

:42:57.:42:59.

and European election campaign trail. We'll have more on this a

:43:00.:43:08.

little later in the programme. It's one of the curiosities of this

:43:09.:43:12.

era of coalition politics: Two entirely separate sets of target

:43:13.:43:17.

seats on the go at the same time. With Labour and the Conservatives

:43:18.:43:19.

both short of a Commons majority, each requires seats from the other.

:43:20.:43:23.

Altogether, nearly 30 local marginals could change hands one way

:43:24.:43:28.

or another. Redditch is one place which swings more than most and

:43:29.:43:31.

there's one place in Redditch which swings more than most... In

:43:32.:43:36.

Redditch! Here's our BBC Hereford and Worcester political reporter,

:43:37.:43:41.

Matthew Bone. Across the West Midlands, the

:43:42.:43:44.

election campaign is coming to the boil, nowhere more so than here in

:43:45.:43:48.

the Winyates area of Redditch. When it comes to swing voters, this place

:43:49.:43:52.

has pretty much got the market wrapped up. There has been Liberal,

:43:53.:43:59.

Labour, Conservative, BNP. It's very diverse. We've got people from

:44:00.:44:03.

everywhere, where everybody's... You know, they contribute to the local

:44:04.:44:07.

community in a positive way, really. And, you know, business is... Touch

:44:08.:44:11.

wood, it's good. So, yeah. You know, you've just got to look forward and

:44:12.:44:19.

look ahead. Labour's MP was Jacqui Smith until 2010 but, with the

:44:20.:44:22.

expenses scandal at its height, she lost her seat to the Conservatives'

:44:23.:44:26.

Karen Lumley, who took it with a larger than average swing of over

:44:27.:44:29.

9%. But Labour re`took the council a couple of years ago here, and this

:44:30.:44:33.

time around, they've wheeled out the Shadow Cabinet big guns as they try

:44:34.:44:36.

to take more seats off the Conservatives and build some

:44:37.:44:39.

momentum ahead of next year's general election. But there are

:44:40.:44:42.

plenty of other candidates in the field, including UKIP, who had their

:44:43.:44:45.

own county councillor here until recently. Could they have an impact

:44:46.:44:49.

this time around? This idea that Mr Cameron can renegotiate the European

:44:50.:44:53.

Union to mould it to its own liking... Economically, Redditch has

:44:54.:44:56.

struggled in recent times but unemployment is falling. Inspire

:44:57.:44:58.

Community Training helps the long`time unemployed back into work.

:44:59.:45:04.

Irene used the company to help her get a job. It is hard to get work

:45:05.:45:11.

round here. If they go on courses, like they do here at Inspire, then

:45:12.:45:14.

that'll bring them more work, I suppose, if it helps them carry on.

:45:15.:45:18.

Just round the corner, Mad Malc has been sitting down with customers for

:45:19.:45:21.

the last seven years. He's not surprised that people here are so

:45:22.:45:25.

quick to change their vote. I think a lot of people have come to the

:45:26.:45:29.

conclusion that they voted for this person, this person's got in, they

:45:30.:45:32.

didn't do what they said they were going to do, it didn't work out.

:45:33.:45:39.

They'll try the next person. That doesn't work out. They'll try the

:45:40.:45:43.

next person. It's the old adage if it doesn't work, try something new.

:45:44.:45:50.

I've had a look on the boards and it looks like there's a couple of roses

:45:51.:45:53.

that could be used for Labour or a bird that you could have for the

:45:54.:45:57.

Liberal Democrats! Have you ever had anybody come in and ask ,"Can I have

:45:58.:46:01.

a political tattoo?" Er... No. I think a lot of them will probably

:46:02.:46:05.

find out they'll be regretting it at a later stage in their life.

:46:06.:46:08.

Redditch is one of around 30 key marginal seats here in the West

:46:09.:46:11.

Midlands, and whoever makes their mark this time round stands a good

:46:12.:46:15.

chance of doing well in the next general election. And that's the

:46:16.:46:22.

real needle contest. He chickened out! But while we're in

:46:23.:46:28.

election mode, my latest blog post about this month's European polls

:46:29.:46:31.

reveals the key contest in the West Midlands constituency will be the

:46:32.:46:37.

race for seventh place! That's with apologies to those of you in

:46:38.:46:40.

Gloucestershire who have your own election for South West England. The

:46:41.:46:52.

experience in Redditch and across these Midlands marginals is that you

:46:53.:46:56.

say the plan is working but that is not coming through in terms of

:46:57.:47:00.

people feeling better off or their voting intentions. People I speak to

:47:01.:47:06.

do tell me their budgets are stretched and they are still

:47:07.:47:11.

struggling and what we have to look at is the evidence. The evidence I

:47:12.:47:17.

would point to is the Asda income Tracker, the Bank of England monthly

:47:18.:47:25.

business reports, the ONS... It is how it feels on the ground but that

:47:26.:47:30.

translates into how people are actually acting, and if you look at

:47:31.:47:35.

how people are behaving, retail sales are up, they are out

:47:36.:47:40.

shopping, retail parks in Telford are so busy. You will go into battle

:47:41.:47:47.

in Warwick and Lymington on the basis that people are worse off than

:47:48.:47:53.

they were in the general election. Momentum is heading towards Lucy,

:47:54.:47:56.

economic league. People are saying to me they are not feeling better.

:47:57.:48:04.

Prices of housing is going up, rents are going up, housing in Warwick is

:48:05.:48:10.

getting unaffordable for the vast majority of people. If you don't

:48:11.:48:13.

earn an awful lot of money, you don't have a hope of buying a

:48:14.:48:17.

property there. The jobs market has picked up and not enough. Young

:48:18.:48:21.

people are still struggling to find work and people have to move out of

:48:22.:48:26.

the area for employment. This is the conversation that is defining the

:48:27.:48:30.

approach to the general election. If you look at the numbers, with only

:48:31.:48:34.

three MPs in the whole of the region, it is a 2`party fight in a

:48:35.:48:41.

region that has been stony ground for you for many years. Those

:48:42.:48:48.

regions where we do have Liberal Democrat MPs certainly feel the

:48:49.:48:53.

difference. They work extremely hard. What people are starting to

:48:54.:48:57.

realise is that Labour can go on and on about how people are stretched,

:48:58.:49:03.

but actually, if they really cared about hard`working people, we

:49:04.:49:07.

wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. You don't care about

:49:08.:49:12.

hard`working people by driving us into debt. The Liberal Democrats are

:49:13.:49:17.

taking difficult decisions into government, GDP has risen for the

:49:18.:49:24.

fifth consecutive quarter. But the Tories get the credit. We get the

:49:25.:49:30.

credit for the ?800 backing the pockets of of working people. If you

:49:31.:49:37.

look at what local authorities are doing, it is the Labour council is

:49:38.:49:42.

working hard to make sure local funds benefit from council contracts

:49:43.:49:48.

and apprenticeship guarantees are written into contracts. That is what

:49:49.:49:55.

Labour councils deliver. Lynette mentions Labour councils. There are

:49:56.:49:59.

lots of Labour cities. Margaret Thatcher said your party needed to

:50:00.:50:06.

get back into it. I can think back to Edgbaston, Selly Oak, North

:50:07.:50:12.

fields. It's a no go area for you now. It's a serious problem. The

:50:13.:50:21.

cities will beware this election is won or lost. Getting back the vote

:50:22.:50:30.

there will be critical to success. The economy will be the battle

:50:31.:50:37.

ground issue. We have seen jobseeker's allowance claimants are

:50:38.:50:40.

down. We have seen the lowest unemployment in Telford for five

:50:41.:50:48.

years. The facts and evidence show that people will feel better off by

:50:49.:50:54.

2015. Sheik of the head by Lynette, I saw. Everything George Osborne

:50:55.:51:02.

promised us in 2010 hasn't happened. The recovery of the economy has been

:51:03.:51:09.

far slower than he said. It is clear that Labour still can't be trusted

:51:10.:51:15.

on the economy and the Conservatives can't be, either. We are setting the

:51:16.:51:24.

scene for the campaign. On the local campaign trail, the

:51:25.:51:28.

Greens are on a roll, with more councillors in more authorities than

:51:29.:51:33.

ever before: 20 in ten different authorities, including Will

:51:34.:51:35.

Duckworth of Dudley, who is also their national Deputy Leader, their

:51:36.:51:38.

opposition to high`speed rail played strongly in last year's county

:51:39.:51:41.

elections. Our BBC Coventry and Warwickshire political reporter,

:51:42.:51:44.

Sian Grzsezczyk, asks if it'll do so again this time.

:51:45.:51:52.

Heath Park in Chelmsley Wood, just one of the many battle grounds along

:51:53.:51:56.

the proposed HS2 line from London to Birmingham. The Greens say their

:51:57.:51:59.

opposition to it is winning them votes. We could become even the

:52:00.:52:13.

official opposition. We could do so much more. We could be picking up

:52:14.:52:25.

more seats. At the moment, the Greens have 20 councillors across

:52:26.:52:29.

ten West Midlands council `` councils. Last week, MPs voted

:52:30.:52:41.

overwhelmingly in favour of the scheme, which is now one step

:52:42.:52:43.

closer, but if our highly unscientific straw poll is anything

:52:44.:52:47.

to go by, support in Chelmsley Wood is thin on the ground. I don't think

:52:48.:52:59.

we need it. It is destroying people's lives. It's a total waste

:53:00.:53:03.

of money. The Greens are hoping the issue will also play well in the

:53:04.:53:06.

European elections. Last time out, they came sixth in the West

:53:07.:53:10.

Midlands, behind the BNP, a long way off securing an MEP. The party's

:53:11.:53:13.

Deputy Leader is hoping for better this time around. It all cut swathes

:53:14.:53:23.

through the landscape of this country and there is no way we could

:53:24.:53:26.

mitigate against the environmental damage, not to mention the cost of

:53:27.:53:33.

?3000 or more for each family in the country just so if you businessmen

:53:34.:53:39.

can get to London a few minutes quicker. The Green Party holds its

:53:40.:53:42.

conference in Birmingham this September. The question is, will the

:53:43.:53:45.

annual get`together see them welcoming a clutch of new

:53:46.:53:48.

councillors and maybe an MEP from the West Midlands?

:53:49.:53:50.

And next week, we'll examine the BNP's prospects here in this month's

:53:51.:54:00.

elections. It strikes me that HS2 is one of those areas where the Green

:54:01.:54:05.

Party is making great strides in cornering your traditional share of

:54:06.:54:09.

the market, bearing in mind that we saw a poll that places the Liberal

:54:10.:54:17.

Democrats behind the Greens. They are doing what they have done in

:54:18.:54:22.

other areas and making political capital. I did think it has been

:54:23.:54:28.

thought through. But you are against Aegis to yourself. `` HS2. We think

:54:29.:54:41.

it is necessary, not just for speed but capacity. I am interested in

:54:42.:54:46.

local infrastructure for trains. It is ridiculous you can't get directly

:54:47.:54:50.

from Stratford to Birmingham International. I will put the

:54:51.:55:00.

residence of the area I am representing first and foremost.

:55:01.:55:07.

Sounds like a definite maybe! What about you? You are against HS2. Like

:55:08.:55:18.

Liz, we have got to say, we need rail infrastructure in the

:55:19.:55:23.

Midlands. It is ridiculous that you can't get the train from Stratford

:55:24.:55:29.

to Birmingham. It will depend what is in the bill. It's not a mystery!

:55:30.:55:38.

There are many petitions coming in, to trying get changes in that bill.

:55:39.:55:47.

All the parties are supposedly for HS2. Is this a complete room for

:55:48.:55:52.

rebels here? A decision has been made. Let's get on with the job. I

:55:53.:56:00.

don't want to wait until 2026 to see improvements in rail

:56:01.:56:02.

infrastructure. Capacity has always been an issue for us here. It's not

:56:03.:56:09.

about speed. I want to see increased capacity so that we can have our

:56:10.:56:14.

direct links to Telford. At the moment, we cannot get to London

:56:15.:56:19.

without stopping at Wolverhampton, sometimes for half an hour. That is

:56:20.:56:23.

a major barrier for business, jobs and growth. Shropshire business

:56:24.:56:29.

people have put their weight behind increased infrastructure. We have

:56:30.:56:33.

heard what Ed Balls has had to say about HS2. He revealed himself not

:56:34.:56:41.

to be a particular fan. Would`be first act of his role as Chancellor

:56:42.:56:45.

be to strike his pen through the whole thing? I don't think you will

:56:46.:56:51.

cancel the project. He has said there cannot be a blank check for

:56:52.:56:58.

HS2. We have got to make sure it is delivering the economic benefits

:56:59.:57:01.

promised and the case has not proved that the economic benefits will be

:57:02.:57:06.

delivered because logically, you will not go from Warwick and Leeming

:57:07.:57:11.

ten North for half an hour to a railway station to get on a train to

:57:12.:57:16.

go to London. At the moment, you can get to London faster if you go to a

:57:17.:57:22.

local railway station. These trains would presumably be more

:57:23.:57:25.

environmentally friendly than older trains. Liberal Democrats have been

:57:26.:57:34.

100% in favour of the new HS2, but what we have also done is put ?16

:57:35.:57:41.

billion in two improved rail infrastructure.

:57:42.:57:45.

Now our regular round`up of the political week in the Midlands in 60

:57:46.:57:49.

seconds. It's a campaign special today, brought to us by our BBC

:57:50.:57:51.

Shropshire political reporter, Joanne Gallacher.

:57:52.:58:00.

Lin Golding is plotting a comeback as a district councillor in

:58:01.:58:03.

Newcastle`under`Lyme at the age of 81. She was Labour MP for the town

:58:04.:58:08.

for 15 years before entering the Lords.

:58:09.:58:12.

The We Demand a Referendum Now Party launched its European election

:58:13.:58:15.

manifesto. Their lead candidate is sitting West Midlands MEP Nikki

:58:16.:58:23.

Sinclaire, formerly of UKIP. By re`electing me, people know they

:58:24.:58:26.

will get someone that represents them.

:58:27.:58:28.

Another former UKIP MEP, Mike Nattrass, is seeking re`election.

:58:29.:58:32.

His An Independence from Europe Party is fielding candidates in all

:58:33.:58:42.

of England's Euro constituencies. We should leave because domination from

:58:43.:58:45.

Europe isn't what we need at all. As well as visiting Redditch, Shadow

:58:46.:58:48.

Health Secretary Andy Burnham dropped in to Walsall to launch

:58:49.:58:50.

Labour's local election campaign. And we end where we started, in

:58:51.:58:53.

Newcastle`under`Lyme, where none other than the Prime Minister

:58:54.:58:56.

himself was on hand to get the Conservative campaign underway.

:58:57.:59:05.

And we'll be hearing from some of the other parties who are running in

:59:06.:59:08.

the European and local election campaign trails over the next two

:59:09.:59:19.

weeks. David Cameron there in Newcastle. We heard Andrew Neil

:59:20.:59:24.

saying he managed to talk a great deal about Europe. He has got a

:59:25.:59:29.

point, hasn't he? He said your party won't have a referendum. What we are

:59:30.:59:36.

saying is we need to make sure the EU has reforms and we want to work

:59:37.:59:45.

with the EU... There needs to be a referendum if there are significant

:59:46.:59:48.

changes to the powers of the European Union. But if nothing is

:59:49.:59:57.

changing, there is no need to have a referendum. We need reform of the

:59:58.:00:03.

EU. In east to stop focusing so much on agricultural subsidies and look

:00:04.:00:06.

instead at job creation and protection. David Cameron shows

:00:07.:00:21.

signs of taking on UK I'd `` UKIP. That's right. If we look at the

:00:22.:00:28.

polls. `` polls, UKIP is surging ahead. The question that will be

:00:29.:00:33.

asked on the 22nd is very different to that which will be asked in 2015.

:00:34.:00:48.

If you put your take in the box, it is because you are making a

:00:49.:00:52.

statement that you are sending to the political classes that you want

:00:53.:00:57.

to be heard. We heard at the top of this programme the threat to your

:00:58.:01:02.

party of oblivion in these elections. It's a tough fight for

:01:03.:01:17.

you to avoid a whitewash. No other party has... The politics UKIP is

:01:18.:01:29.

pedalling around is very dangerous. We have had no silencing throughout

:01:30.:01:33.

this programme today! My thanks to Lucy, Lynnette and

:01:34.:01:37.

Elizabeth. Next Sunday, we'll have the first of our special programmes

:01:38.:01:39.

concentrating on the European elections. For the next two weeks,

:01:40.:01:45.

I'll be joined live in the studio by candidates from each of the four

:01:46.:01:50.

main parties here. And, of course, we'll also be hearing from the six

:01:51.:01:53.

other parties fielding full slates of seven candidates each. You can

:01:54.:01:58.

see them all for yourself on the BBC News Politics website.

:01:59.:02:02.

on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,

:02:03.:02:08.

London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is

:02:09.:02:15.

not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report

:02:16.:02:19.

from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning

:02:20.:02:22.

programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,

:02:23.:02:24.

emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea

:02:25.:02:30.

leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are

:02:31.:02:34.

predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller

:02:35.:02:44.

before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of

:02:45.:02:47.

the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.

:02:48.:02:54.

But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this

:02:55.:02:59.

off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until

:03:00.:03:06.

at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I

:03:07.:03:12.

think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.

:03:13.:03:17.

Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the

:03:18.:03:26.

brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year

:03:27.:03:30.

until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze

:03:31.:03:37.

into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election

:03:38.:03:43.

in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the

:03:44.:03:51.

Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you

:03:52.:03:56.

think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.

:03:57.:04:03.

I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting

:04:04.:04:08.

on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off

:04:09.:04:16.

the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another

:04:17.:04:22.

liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in

:04:23.:04:29.

touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half

:04:30.:04:35.

of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go

:04:36.:04:39.

to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a

:04:40.:04:44.

hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go

:04:45.:04:50.

with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he

:04:51.:04:54.

has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much

:04:55.:05:02.

further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the

:05:03.:05:06.

leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David

:05:07.:05:10.

Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister

:05:11.:05:14.

as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult

:05:15.:05:18.

them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a

:05:19.:05:23.

coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal

:05:24.:05:29.

Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further

:05:30.:05:34.

away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat

:05:35.:05:41.

point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the

:05:42.:05:47.

last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did

:05:48.:05:50.

you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five

:05:51.:06:00.

formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then

:06:01.:06:07.

there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It

:06:08.:06:18.

might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If

:06:19.:06:23.

you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party

:06:24.:06:27.

should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium

:06:28.:06:33.

next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.

:06:34.:06:39.

David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they

:06:40.:06:44.

happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes

:06:45.:06:49.

they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick

:06:50.:06:54.

Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so

:06:55.:06:59.

the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas

:07:00.:07:03.

should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to

:07:04.:07:08.

do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general

:07:09.:07:12.

election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David

:07:13.:07:15.

Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week

:07:16.:07:22.

campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one

:07:23.:07:27.

debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it

:07:28.:07:31.

will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and

:07:32.:07:36.

he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are

:07:37.:07:41.

coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in

:07:42.:07:45.

the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a

:07:46.:07:52.

strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor

:07:53.:07:57.

third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come

:07:58.:08:03.

forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the

:08:04.:08:07.

media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to

:08:08.:08:10.

the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for

:08:11.:08:19.

them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.

:08:20.:08:23.

These are the most interesting elections we have had for some

:08:24.:08:29.

time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I

:08:30.:08:33.

think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we

:08:34.:08:37.

were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things

:08:38.:08:43.

down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real

:08:44.:08:48.

chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is

:08:49.:08:53.

not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he

:08:54.:09:00.

will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they

:09:01.:09:15.

come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as

:09:16.:09:22.

if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be

:09:23.:09:26.

some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the

:09:27.:09:31.

referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour

:09:32.:09:35.

sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you

:09:36.:09:39.

can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to

:09:40.:09:44.

it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad

:09:45.:09:50.

Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the

:09:51.:09:53.

renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even

:09:54.:09:58.

need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David

:09:59.:10:06.

Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local

:10:07.:10:11.

elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,

:10:12.:10:13.

at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a

:10:14.:10:20.

look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not

:10:21.:10:26.

go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.

:10:27.:10:31.

I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I

:10:32.:10:49.

haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister

:10:50.:10:52.

has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't

:10:53.:11:00.

remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly

:11:01.:11:05.

in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's

:11:06.:11:11.

questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad

:11:12.:11:16.

blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and

:11:17.:11:22.

the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the

:11:23.:11:28.

speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker

:11:29.:11:31.

who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the

:11:32.:11:36.

executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed

:11:37.:11:41.

the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the

:11:42.:11:45.

importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's

:11:46.:11:52.

chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister

:11:53.:11:58.

's questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions

:11:59.:12:02.

take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be

:12:03.:12:09.

surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is

:12:10.:12:16.

quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour

:12:17.:12:23.

activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a

:12:24.:12:28.

difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon

:12:29.:12:33.

as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and

:12:34.:12:39.

David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each

:12:40.:12:45.

other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily

:12:46.:12:52.

politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do

:12:53.:12:56.

some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of

:12:57.:13:01.

him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of

:13:02.:13:05.

that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and

:13:06.:13:10.

immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is

:13:11.:13:15.

pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is

:13:16.:13:20.

finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the

:13:21.:13:23.

speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management

:13:24.:13:28.

skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC

:13:29.:13:31.

Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank

:13:32.:13:35.

holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if

:13:36.:13:38.

it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:39.:13:43.

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