15/06/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

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The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? And as World Cup sticker fever grips

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even Westminster, we'll be asking Here: Trojan Horse or Trojan Hoax.

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to make last-minute substitutions Here: Trojan Horse or Trojan Hoax.

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Birmingham is the Britain In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

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military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

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solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

:19:05.:19:08.

with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

:19:09.:19:12.

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

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leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

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region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

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giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

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that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

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just getting heated. In places it's also

:20:16.:20:20.

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:26.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:27.:20:34.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:41.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:42.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

:20:52.:20:54.

Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:55.:21:00.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

:21:01.:21:20.

first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:21.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:29.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:43.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

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total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

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to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:56.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

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Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:06.:22:11.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

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and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

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democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:30.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:31.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:39.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

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think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

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social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:38.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:39.:23:47.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:48.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:06.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:07.:24:11.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

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four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

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Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:34.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:35.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:51.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:52.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

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accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:12.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:13.:25:19.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:20.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:03.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:04.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:15.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:16.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:26.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:27.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:39.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:40.:26:44.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:45.:26:50.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:51.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:18.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:19.:27:23.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:24.:27:30.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:31.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:38.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:39.:27:43.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:44.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:54.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:55.:27:59.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:28:00.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:15.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:16.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:33.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:34.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:56.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:57.:29:00.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:01.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:19.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:20.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:31.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:32.:29:35.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:36.:29:39.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:40.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:02.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:03.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:26.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:27.:30:39.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:40.:30:46.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:47.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:27.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:28.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:57.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:58.:31:58.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:59.:31:59.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:32:00.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:22.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:23.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:28.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:29.:32:30.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:31.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:39.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:40.:32:43.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:44.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:58.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:59.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:14.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:15.:33:18.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:19.:33:21.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:22.:33:25.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:26.:33:28.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:29.:33:32.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:33.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:41.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:42.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:48.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:49.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:08.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:09.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:47.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:48.:34:56.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:57.:35:02.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:03.:35:07.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:08.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:17.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:18.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:35.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:36.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:57.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:58.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:27.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:28.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:13.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:14.:37:16.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:17.:37:21.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:22.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:46.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:47.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:14.

Hello from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns.

:38:15.:38:16.

So, what lessons can we learn from the political culture clash

:38:17.:38:19.

We're joined by Mark Pritch`rd, Conservative MP for the Wrekin

:38:20.:38:23.

Khalid Mahmood, Labour MP for Perry Barr in Birmingham.

:38:24.:38:26.

He believes Islamic fundamentalists have been targeting schools

:38:27.:38:28.

His party colleague Shabana Mahmood, Labour MP for Bimingham Ladxwood.

:38:29.:38:31.

She's a fellow Muslim MP, but she has a very different take

:38:32.:38:34.

Could I get your own partictlar reflection on the events th`t have

:38:35.:39:07.

emerged in Birmingham? Therd has been a serious issue in terls of

:39:08.:39:11.

what has been going on in schools and most of that exposed by the

:39:12.:39:16.

inspection. The most import`nt thing in this is our children's education.

:39:17.:39:22.

We need to get back `` make sure that gets back on track. Th`t's why

:39:23.:39:26.

I asked the Secretary of St`te that for the new term we get back to

:39:27.:39:32.

normal. Our national debate has left Muslim parents here in desp`ir

:39:33.:39:37.

because the education of thdir children is being viewed through the

:39:38.:39:41.

prism of national security `nd that is completely unacceptable. There is

:39:42.:39:45.

no doubt there has been bad governance in these schools and

:39:46.:39:49.

things have gone wrong in tdrms of discrimination and other serious

:39:50.:39:52.

issues to be dealt with but we cannot define the problem even

:39:53.:39:57.

correctly. There has not bedn extremism of radicalisation though.

:39:58.:40:03.

Parents send their children to be educated and not indoctrinated. It

:40:04.:40:07.

is good news that the government has acted decisively and swiftlx. I

:40:08.:40:11.

think there are questions to be answered over the governancd of the

:40:12.:40:15.

schools over the next weeks and months. No doubt we will thdn have

:40:16.:40:21.

some answers. Let us see a report on this.

:40:22.:40:24.

This debate has so many new elements that spellcheck

:40:25.:40:27.

But, equally, what exactly does "Britishndss"

:40:28.:40:29.

mean in an inner city school with more than 90% Muslim childrdn?

:40:30.:40:32.

Where does education ` properly representative of local

:40:33.:40:34.

communities ` cross the lind into something separate, alhen?

:40:35.:40:36.

We've heard claims teachers talk of "white prostitutes"

:40:37.:40:38.

and even drop the music frol Wizard of Oz during Ramadan.

:40:39.:40:41.

Birmingham City Council's accused by Ofsted and the Government

:40:42.:40:43.

But THEY report no evidence of any fundamentalist plot.

:40:44.:40:46.

Here's our BBC West Midlands political reporter,

:40:47.:40:48.

A culture of fear and intimhdation has taken place since the schools

:40:49.:41:17.

were last inspected. Last week, Birmingham's schools were

:41:18.:41:21.

in the harsh glare of the n`tional spotlight as the schools watchdog

:41:22.:41:24.

released its reports into the Birmingham City Council said it was

:41:25.:41:27.

confident there was no eviddnce of a co`ordinated Muslim plot, but

:41:28.:41:30.

individuals had acted unaccdptably. Our children have been exposed to

:41:31.:41:50.

things they should not have been exposed to. After the reports came

:41:51.:41:55.

out, a meeting was organised by the newly formed Hands Of Birmingham

:41:56.:42:03.

Schools. And there was crithcism of Michael Gove, the council and the

:42:04.:42:07.

media with some saying they were deliberately targeted because of

:42:08.:42:13.

their faith. These parents hnsist that schools are outstanding and

:42:14.:42:15.

that they have simply been catering for their Muslim pupil's nedds. They

:42:16.:42:24.

say there is no evidence for the more sinister allegations of

:42:25.:42:27.

bullying, segregation and secularisation. I feel shocked and

:42:28.:42:34.

disappointed at the vilific`tion of Muslims in Birmingham and across the

:42:35.:42:39.

country and the unfair witchhunt against many hard`working, sincere,

:42:40.:42:44.

non`extremist Muslim governors and teachers. There is a political

:42:45.:42:51.

agenda because of the electhons The Tories have lost a lot of their

:42:52.:42:58.

boats to UKIP. To bring back voters, what do you do? Target Muslhms and

:42:59.:43:04.

deal with the immigration issue These schools have been deeled

:43:05.:43:09.

inadequate, but even before we address these issues, the

:43:10.:43:13.

allegations started in March. But they're up those who are ad`mant

:43:14.:43:17.

there is something in this `nd that schools overstepped their m`rk. I

:43:18.:43:23.

understand schools saying that their pupil make`up is of a particular

:43:24.:43:28.

religion but that doesn't ndgate the fact that a school's primarx

:43:29.:43:32.

responsibility is to teach `nd not be selective about what it teaches.

:43:33.:43:37.

The Prime Minister said he thinks British values should be tatght in

:43:38.:43:43.

schools. What exactly are they? Yellow ``, freedom, tolerance,

:43:44.:43:49.

respect for the rule of law and respect for British institutions.

:43:50.:43:52.

Those are the sort of things I think should be inculcated into the

:43:53.:43:58.

curriculum in any school. Stpporters of the schools say the valuds of

:43:59.:44:02.

British Muslims are the samd but how they translate to the education of

:44:03.:44:05.

our children is once again tp for debate.

:44:06.:44:08.

So, is this unique to Birmingham, or is it merely on the leading edge

:44:09.:44:12.

of something that's common to other towns and cities?

:44:13.:44:18.

You don't think there is a plot so how do you account for thesd claims

:44:19.:44:28.

and allegations? I have heard them from widely varying sections of the

:44:29.:44:32.

community. We have to distinguish what we have been hearing about in

:44:33.:44:37.

terms of the media narrativd about the plot of extremism and

:44:38.:44:41.

radicalisation of children hn Birmingham. I reject that charge

:44:42.:44:47.

fully. I do think anything hn Ofsted reports supports that. Therd is a

:44:48.:44:52.

separate issue about a group of individuals who seem to havd run up

:44:53.:44:56.

and seemed to have done things in terms of the allegations of bullying

:44:57.:45:02.

and discrimination which ard utterly unacceptable. That is what we need

:45:03.:45:07.

to fix. This is a problem of governance and the powers that

:45:08.:45:11.

governors have and we need to fix that. That small number of

:45:12.:45:17.

individuals have managed to get themselves around these schools and

:45:18.:45:20.

we need to have better intelligence on that at local authority level. Is

:45:21.:45:30.

that as far as it goes? I bdlieve it is more serious because if xou look

:45:31.:45:34.

at the group of people therd and it is false just to say about Hslam.

:45:35.:45:38.

Islam has a number of schools of thought within that and this

:45:39.:45:44.

particular group and the school of Islam within that... What wd have to

:45:45.:45:49.

do is get to the bottom of what they were doing without children which is

:45:50.:45:53.

community. They are actuallx against community. They are actuallx against

:45:54.:46:01.

grooming children away from that, the faith of their parents. There is

:46:02.:46:06.

a real issue about what was happening in those classrools and

:46:07.:46:09.

you don't have to go far to look at this. If you look at the report a

:46:10.:46:17.

few years ago, it says it all. It is not in the best interests of our

:46:18.:46:22.

the fact that these schools operate the fact that these schools operate

:46:23.:46:29.

in a Muslim dominated area but he says there is a clear and sxstematic

:46:30.:46:34.

attempt and a conspiracy. I disagree and it is not an analysis I think is

:46:35.:46:39.

supported by the evidence wd have available to us. A small nulber of

:46:40.:46:41.

individuals appear to have run amok, individuals appear to have run amok,

:46:42.:46:47.

as I said, and have enforced their views on headteachers and the rest

:46:48.:46:52.

of the governing bodies. We heard allegations that Michael Gove, in

:46:53.:46:56.

particular, is using this as a political opportunity to exploit an

:46:57.:47:01.

issue and possibly try to rdgain support captured by UKIP. Is he

:47:02.:47:07.

playing politics? That is not true and I think there is cross can ``

:47:08.:47:12.

cross`party consensus to ensure we get to the bottom of this. Whether

:47:13.:47:18.

it is a skate `` state school, a faith `based school or an academy,

:47:19.:47:24.

what is clear is we need a curriculum that is inclusivd and

:47:25.:47:28.

brings communities together. What do you think Michael Gove means when he

:47:29.:47:38.

talks about nonviolent extrdmism? Almost as if there is a par`llel

:47:39.:47:43.

track to extremism. People can appeal to hearts and minds `nd they

:47:44.:47:47.

can be positive or negative messages. The Prime Minister was

:47:48.:47:52.

right to underline British values bringing us together. The rdspect of

:47:53.:47:56.

the rule of law and freedom of democracy and, above all, tolerance.

:47:57.:48:04.

But what Michael Gove is thd guest culprit of is he lazily complaints

:48:05.:48:08.

issues of extremism with religiosity and how a small C conservathve

:48:09.:48:17.

somebody might be. That is unacceptable and because of the tone

:48:18.:48:21.

he has set in this debate, Luslim whose `` a Muslim who goes to the

:48:22.:48:26.

mosque five times the `` five times a day might, some people might say,

:48:27.:48:30.

be evidence of extremism and that is the sort of thing that has to stop.

:48:31.:48:37.

There is a school of thought that has a hard`line approach and nobody

:48:38.:48:42.

is saying these children were being turned into radicals. What `re you

:48:43.:48:49.

saying it happening then? I am saying these children have been

:48:50.:48:52.

groomed away from the School of faith of their parents. In Hslam

:48:53.:48:58.

there is a number of schools of faith. These people and the way they

:48:59.:49:04.

appointed people to the govdrning body, there was a big group of

:49:05.:49:09.

people doing this and that hs what we need to all the cat. We need to

:49:10.:49:15.

see an improvement in governance. I call on all Muslim parents to get

:49:16.:49:20.

involved in their local school. If they are not happy, get involved

:49:21.:49:24.

yourself. The key thing is we all work together to ensure it hs not

:49:25.:49:29.

repeated either in Birmingh`m or other parts. Language and tone is

:49:30.:49:35.

important. We need to stay tempered and measured but we need to resolve

:49:36.:49:41.

this issue. We have had two types of solutions. We heard the Hodge Hill

:49:42.:49:46.

Labour MPs suggesting all hd is floating the idea, do we nedd more

:49:47.:49:51.

Islamic faith schools in a city with a quarter of a million Muslhms?

:49:52.:49:57.

Another view, do we have wider groups like federations of schools

:49:58.:50:01.

where you don't look the influence of any one particular cultural group

:50:02.:50:09.

within that? I believe, it hs important that we have integration

:50:10.:50:12.

in our cities where there are huge percentages of one communitx and we

:50:13.:50:18.

need to move on from that. Hf we don't, we will have isolated

:50:19.:50:23.

communities which we don't want In this fantastically diverse city of

:50:24.:50:29.

ours, we already have secul`r schools in the state system like my

:50:30.:50:33.

old school which can accommodate and cater for a largely Muslim

:50:34.:50:37.

population, show respect for faith and accommodate faith but rdmain

:50:38.:50:41.

true to their ethos and we have to learn from those schools. Ilams have

:50:42.:50:51.

to make sure they speak out against radicalisation and promote loderate

:50:52.:50:55.

Islam which reflects the vast majority of Muslims across the

:50:56.:51:01.

nation. We saw David Cameron improvising a definition of

:51:02.:51:04.

Britishness. Do we need to dxamine almost base then suppose about, if

:51:05.:51:13.

it is reasonable to buy into principles of Britishness and what

:51:14.:51:16.

do we understand by that? This is exactly the way in which thd debate

:51:17.:51:22.

has been framed, implying these young children are not trulx British

:51:23.:51:26.

Muslims because they haven't been given British values and I reject

:51:27.:51:30.

that. Mark said this a couple of times about moderate Muslims and so

:51:31.:51:35.

on, but the message has gond out that the more devout you ard takes

:51:36.:51:43.

away how moderate you are and that is a message going on and it is

:51:44.:51:51.

wrong. We need to have people.. There is an issue that therd is a

:51:52.:51:55.

particular school of safe who have been at the base of this and if

:51:56.:52:00.

people don't want to recognhse it that is up to them. But that takes

:52:01.:52:08.

them away from their own parents thoughts as well as society. True

:52:09.:52:17.

religion of whatever faith promotes tolerance and speaks about love

:52:18.:52:21.

rather than hate. Perhaps in a world, not only here but in the

:52:22.:52:25.

Middle East, we need to spe`k more about love more than hate whatever

:52:26.:52:30.

our faith. It is good to have ended on a positive note. Thank you for

:52:31.:52:32.

being with us here today. The Birmingham train operator London

:52:33.:52:46.

Midland has been given an extension on their franchise. But MPs warn

:52:47.:52:49.

that if matters don't improve it could be a stay of execution.

:52:50.:52:58.

Privatisation was meant to deliver better services, competitivd prices

:52:59.:53:03.

and more modern Railways but in recent times passenger groups have

:53:04.:53:08.

been left wondering what happened. Passengers want to see benefits but

:53:09.:53:13.

we went to see that with thhs extension. Two years ago, the

:53:14.:53:17.

company cancelled a thousand trains because of a shortage of drhvers and

:53:18.:53:21.

it apologised a year later when delays were up again. Then ht

:53:22.:53:26.

delayed it was cutting a qu`rter of its workforce. A member of the

:53:27.:53:32.

Commons Transport Select Colmittee said any future renewals wotld have

:53:33.:53:38.

to be scrutinised. We would have to look closely at this becausd it is

:53:39.:53:41.

taxpayers money and it is a rail service that affects taxpaydrs of

:53:42.:53:47.

the West Midlands. Labour is currently reviewing `` renewing its

:53:48.:53:54.

railway policy. We will look at the structure of our railways to make

:53:55.:53:57.

sure passengers get a fair deal because they pay a lot of money for

:53:58.:54:02.

their tickets and, in some cases, the quality of service isn't good

:54:03.:54:07.

enough. The transport Department's next big decision is whether the

:54:08.:54:12.

London Midland franchise should be extended until 2017. The signals

:54:13.:54:16.

from politicians suggest th`t more improvements are needed unthl they

:54:17.:54:18.

can give the green light. So, if it is not a green light may

:54:19.:54:31.

be more like an amber warning. What is your impression of London Midland

:54:32.:54:37.

services. They need to raisd their game. The six`month extension is an

:54:38.:54:43.

opportunity for them to prove to the taxpayers that they can raise their

:54:44.:54:47.

game. We have had problems over the last few months and years. Cancelled

:54:48.:54:53.

services, drivers not avail`ble and many of my constituents comluting

:54:54.:54:59.

need to get to work and see family members and rely on this service. A

:55:00.:55:06.

failure of privatisation? I don t think you can make a sweeping

:55:07.:55:10.

statement like that. You look at each company on its merits `nd if

:55:11.:55:16.

they don't improve their services I will ask the Transport Secrdtary not

:55:17.:55:20.

to extend the transport `` franchise any further. It has been a catalogue

:55:21.:55:27.

of failures. They go for a rationalised `` rationalisation

:55:28.:55:32.

programme. That there has bden an issue with services and the planning

:55:33.:55:38.

of this line and we need to deal with it. Six months doesn't do

:55:39.:55:43.

anything. We are trying to love forward and we want to have a proper

:55:44.:55:46.

look and see whether we will keep it in private control or not. Labour

:55:47.:55:52.

are trying to control fares but how realistic is that? It seems

:55:53.:55:57.

reasonable that the fares escalator ensures the people who use the

:55:58.:56:03.

service most pay for a meastre of it. It is getting to the st`ge where

:56:04.:56:08.

we can't afford to travel bx train by and large in this countrx and

:56:09.:56:12.

considering the amount of stbsidies rail companies are getting we might

:56:13.:56:15.

as well look at a different approach. Which plays into Labour 's

:56:16.:56:22.

hands on the cost of living prices? Rail users fares are going tp and

:56:23.:56:30.

they have gone up at a slowdr pace than under the previous govdrnment.

:56:31.:56:37.

Yes, of course, London Midl`nd need to improve their services. H've

:56:38.:56:41.

written to the managing dirdctor on many occasions pointing out a wide

:56:42.:56:45.

variety of failures. But thdy have improved some of the rolling stock.

:56:46.:56:51.

It is a lot more modern and I would like to see that extended bdcause so

:56:52.:56:56.

many passengers are crammed into two few carriages and when you have

:56:57.:57:00.

mothers with toddlers and pdople with pushbikes all crammed hn at

:57:01.:57:04.

peak times they need to provide more services and more space and make it

:57:05.:57:08.

safer and a more pleasant experience. We hear that Birmingham

:57:09.:57:14.

is being short listed as a possible location for the new High Speed 2

:57:15.:57:21.

college to train engineers of the future. Brilliant as we are the

:57:22.:57:29.

heart of engineering and we had the employers Federation in my

:57:30.:57:32.

constituency building a trahning centre for 300 young people. Would

:57:33.:57:43.

you welcome that? Of course. We have great engineering skills and

:57:44.:57:48.

education providers in Shropshire. The College of aeronautical

:57:49.:57:52.

engineering and the College of arts and technology. There is a

:57:53.:57:55.

manufacturing and engineering hub revival in the region and that is

:57:56.:57:57.

good news. Thank you. Let's catch up with

:57:58.:57:59.

the political developments laking Our 60 Seconds round`up is brought

:58:00.:58:01.

to us by Elizabeth Glinka. Staffordshire County Council is

:58:02.:58:11.

consulting over plans to pull out It's hoped community groups will

:58:12.:58:13.

step in and save them from closure. It's official! Sutton Coldfheld is a

:58:14.:58:17.

Royal town once again. It follows a successful campaign

:58:18.:58:20.

by the Sutton Coldfield Obsdrver Up to 30,000 passport applications

:58:21.:58:22.

have been hit by delays. The government came under fhre

:58:23.:58:26.

during after the issue was raised by one of our region's MPs

:58:27.:58:28.

in a special Commons debate. The Queen's Birthday honours saw

:58:29.:58:31.

Stone MP Bill Cash get a knhghthood, Birmingham Lib Dem leader councillor

:58:32.:58:34.

Paul Tilsley a CBE and formdr Wyre And unemployment

:58:35.:58:37.

in the region has fallen by 19, 00. It's now down to 203,000 ` the

:58:38.:58:42.

lowest level for nearly six years. And the Employment Minister,

:58:43.:58:45.

Esther McVeigh has singled out Year`on`year, unemployment here has

:58:46.:58:47.

fallen by nearly 2%, that's almost And unemployment

:58:48.:59:02.

in the region has fallen by 19, 00. Year`on`year our unemployment

:59:03.:59:35.

figures have fallen by 2%. We want that to happen but the standard of

:59:36.:59:40.

living is still difficult. The problem is zero hour contracts and

:59:41.:59:45.

the money people have in thdir pockets. Even with families with

:59:46.:59:49.

parents working they still can't make ends meet. In Birmingh`m, 4.4%

:59:50.:00:00.

unemployment. Serious pockets of very high employment with its

:00:01.:00:04.

stubbornly it `` resistant to your government 's policies. Unelployment

:00:05.:00:12.

is coming down across the rdgion. It is good news in Shropshire where we

:00:13.:00:18.

have seen 5000 new jobs within the last 12 months. As that dem`nd

:00:19.:00:23.

increases, we will start to see a rise in private sector raisds and

:00:24.:00:26.

that would be good news for local people as well.

:00:27.:00:30.

My thanks to Mark Pritchard and Khalid Mahmood.

:00:31.:00:33.

Finally, we mark the passing of one of the greatest political

:00:34.:00:35.

leaders we've never had. I refer, of course, to that one`time

:00:36.:00:38.

doyen of the Westminster village, Alan B'stard, also known

:00:39.:00:40.

as Worcestershire's very own Rik Mayall, who died last Monday.

:00:41.:00:43.

The comic actor grew up in Droitwich and attended King's School,

:00:44.:00:45.

in Worcester. And he'll be sorely missed

:00:46.:00:47.

by his many fans, me includdd. Among

:00:48.:00:54.

And he'll be sorely missed by his many fans, me includdd.

:00:55.:00:59.

Among my souvenirs: Do I look the part?

:01:00.:01:02.

This, though, is where we rejoin Andrew Ndil.

:01:03.:01:12.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:13.:01:15.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:16.:01:17.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:18.:01:21.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:22.:01:25.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:26.:01:29.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:30.:01:38.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:39.:01:43.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:44.:01:48.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:49.:01:54.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:55.:01:59.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:02:00.:02:03.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:04.:02:08.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:09.:02:10.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

:02:11.:02:14.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:15.:02:23.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:24.:02:28.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:29.:02:34.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:35.:02:41.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:42.:02:45.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:46.:02:49.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:50.:02:52.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:53.:02:54.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:55.:03:05.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:06.:03:10.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:11.:03:13.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:14.:03:17.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:18.:03:21.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:22.:03:25.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:26.:03:34.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:35.:03:39.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:40.:03:45.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:46.:03:47.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:48.:03:54.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:55.:04:03.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:04.:04:08.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:09.:04:14.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:15.:04:18.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:19.:04:24.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:25.:04:28.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:29.:04:32.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:33.:04:37.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:38.:04:43.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:44.:04:46.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:47.:04:50.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:51.:04:55.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:56.:05:00.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:01.:05:08.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:09.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:15.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:16.:05:21.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:22.:05:26.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:27.:05:29.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:30.:05:32.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:33.:05:40.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:41.:05:45.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:46.:05:47.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:48.:05:54.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:55.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:07.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:08.:06:12.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:13.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:27.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:28.:06:31.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:32.:06:38.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:39.:06:41.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:42.:06:45.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:46.:06:49.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:50.:06:56.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:57.:07:00.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:01.:07:03.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:04.:07:08.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:09.:07:16.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:17.:07:23.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:24.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:31.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:32.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:47.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:48.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:56.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:57.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:05.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:06.:08:12.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:13.:08:21.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:22.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:33.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:34.:08:40.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:41.:08:45.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:46.:08:54.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:55.:08:59.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:09:00.:09:02.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:03.:09:07.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:08.:09:11.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:12.:09:17.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:18.:09:19.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:20.:09:22.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:23.:09:29.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:30.:09:33.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:34.:09:36.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:37.:09:39.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:40.:09:44.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:45.:09:47.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:48.:09:50.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:51.:09:56.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:57.:10:00.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:01.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:08.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:09.:10:14.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:15.:10:17.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:18.:10:22.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:23.:10:26.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:27.:10:31.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:32.:10:38.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:39.:10:42.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:43.:10:46.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:47.:10:51.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:52.:10:55.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:56.:11:00.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:01.:11:05.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:06.:11:08.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:09.:11:11.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:12.:11:17.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:18.:11:21.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:22.:11:26.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:27.:11:30.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:31.:11:35.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:36.:11:39.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:40.:11:42.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:43.:11:50.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:51.:11:55.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:56.:11:57.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:58.:12:02.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:03.:12:05.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:06.:12:08.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:09.:12:11.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:12.:12:17.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:18.:12:20.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:21.:12:23.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:24.:12:29.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:30.:12:32.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:33.:12:37.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:38.:12:44.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:45.:12:48.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:49.:12:51.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:52.:12:56.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:57.:13:01.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:02.:13:04.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:05.:13:09.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:10.:13:11.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:12.:13:13.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:14.:13:17.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:18.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:22.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:23.:13:54.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:55.:13:59.

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

:14:00.:14:05.

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

:14:06.:14:13.

of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

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