28/09/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands

Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,

live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.

There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected

He joins us live from his constituency, where he has

It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he

arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

In the Midlands, a star lind`up Ed Milband, Nigel Farage...

We're in Dudley. Are they in the market for a Tory MP?

And we too are live at their conference in Birmhngham,

In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those

priced out are choosing to move away.

And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

At the current rate of Tory resignations,

Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

Conservative government after the next election.

And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..

So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this

country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of

change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My

ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10

as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David

Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick

Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and

we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to

pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this

is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you

winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are

frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to

save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,

you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in

Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at

MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their

voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking

permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe

many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a

Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to

decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our

country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and

have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and

honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things

there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the

media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -

that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is

almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

they are right. They said before they defected that people should

vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..

Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,

you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000

in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will

you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?

The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You

will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I

don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish

timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general

election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what

English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it

over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,

but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions

that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs

from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can

achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English

devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if

you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going

on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more

freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of

that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what

happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution

or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

there will be English votes for English laws after the election

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

in this country to do so in the House of Commons.

in this country to do so in the Clarke, one of the world top experts

on military strategy and history, he says there are very few important IS

targets in northern Iraq, that they are all in Syria, and we are

limiting ourselves to the periphery of the campaign. First of all, just

because you are not doing everything does not mean you should not do

something. Secondly, the United States and other countries are

engaged in the action against targets in Syria. This is a

coalition effort, with people doing different things. Thirdly, if we

were to put their proposal to the House of Commons tomorrow, and it

was defeated, we would not have achieved a great deal. You do not

know it would have been defeated. The Labour Party has given no

indication they would have supported that. So, you are hostage to the

Labour Party? We have to win a democratic vote in the House of

Commons, and the Labour Party is a very large part of the

Commons, and the Labour Party is a Commons. You are asking us to pursue

a policy which at the moment could be defeated

a policy which at the moment could of so many of these military

experts? Why should we trust the of so many of these military

judgment of here today, gone tomorrow,

judgment of here today, gone Syria. The Prime Minister has said

there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come

back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will

have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,

indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does

that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot

comment on intelligence. Is even more ludicrous? I cannot

situation in Syria I direct threat to this country? Yes,

situation in Syria I direct threat excluded action? No, we haven't

week, it will come down to the bread and butter issues of the economy,

employment opportunities and so on. After a few days. The Prime Minister

who gets to his feet and, who will be next waiting in the wings? I

don't know if there are any more but if there are, any moves are totally

illogical. I know Mark Reckless has spoken about this and the rdality

is, if people want that, thd only way you are going to get a

referendum is by a Conservative majority government. Emma, `s a

linguist yourself, what is the word, shard on Friday? I do think it is an

uncomfortable moment for thd Conservative Party. We've h`d a sex

scandal and a defection in the last 24 hours. An alleged sex sc`ndal.

Excuse me. I think the publhc don't like divided party that parties

They don't trust parties who cannot be led by their leader. Nigdl Farage

says there may be some Labotr MPs who are thinking about it as well. I

don't think that there are. I think the Labour Party is genuinely

pro`European and in favour of our membership. There are a few but the

Tories are split down the mhddle of Europe, I'm afraid.

So how will this play out in those crucial marginal seats of otrs `

Labour's tiny majority makes it a prime target for

the Conservatives in pursuit of an overall Commons majority next May.

Our BBC WM Political Reportdr Kathryn Stanczyszyn says it could

have the makings of a genuine three`way contdst.

The constituency of Dudley North. It has been Labour since its creation

in 1997. This market town g`ve the party a bit of a scare at the last

election. And the Tories, who managed to grab Dudley South in

2010, are now looking to conquer the North as well. The Conservative vote

has gone up by a feud thous`nd every election. Last time, we missed it by

only 649 votes. We are confhdent now, with the failures of the Labour

government for 13 years and the failure of delivery for the last ten

years of the MP, Dudley needs change. But in a traditional Labour

heartland, it seems Labour `` change may be further away than thd

Conservatives would like. B`ck in May, they say of 26 marginal seats

found that Labour would win all but one, including Dudley North. Out of

1000 voters, 40% said they would vote Labour. That is up by 0% on the

last general election. 24% said they would vote Conservative. Th`t's a

13% drop. Lib Dems were on 4% of the vote, down by 7%. UKIP did well

27%, up by 18%. Never mind the polls. Are the voters happy with the

current government? Do you think the economy is looking at? They are

doing well. UKIP will take ` lot of votes. UKIP did well in the European

elections in Dudley. UKIP g`ined seven seats in the local eldctions

in May so how much of a bitd can team UKIP take out of the m`in

parties share? Vote for what you believe in. Don't worry. Vote for

the policies and the candid`te you actually believe in and we can win.

The Lib Dems said `` look sdt to become a distant fourth. Thdy've not

selected a candidate yet. What does the current Labour incumbent make of

his chances? I would never take anyone's support forged granted ``

for granted. People listen to George Osborne saying the recession is

over, it's all fine, but trx telling that to young people in Dudley. This

one small battle ground is one of a key handful in the Midlands which

will help decide the outcomd of next year 's war. Its would`be conquerors

and say it is in the market for change.

UKIP say that they have thehr tanks on Labour's lawn. That means they

are really going to go after you in places like Dudley North. They could

also damage your chances of targeting some of the Tory seats as

well. I think the UKIP confdrence has shown that they have nothing to

say to working people. I thhnk it is clear that actually, it's a party

that is more Tory than the Tories. Nigel Farage is an ex`banker, a

Thatcherite and now he is h`ving Tory MPs defect to UKIP. So the big

threat is to you. The threat is across the political mainstream The

important message is the economy is going to be the number one hssue.

When you look at the back g`p between economic credibilitx between

us and Labour, it's about 24 points. In that report, the effects of your

much vaunted improvements in the economy are not being felt. It's

going to take time and we appreciate her. Nobody, I think, is cl`iming

that we are out of the woods on this but we do have... The poll suggests

it is not working. Your slulp in fortunes was catastrophic. @n awful

lot of people have not made up their minds. Most voters will now actually

go to the polling booth and will make up their mind very, very late

in the day. You do have a lot of slender majorities to defend. It's

not just in Dudley. We have terrific MPs, like Ian Austin, who are

engaging with their constittents on some of the most sensitive hssues

like immigration. I think hd has got a good chance. We don't takd it for

granted but he has a good chance because he is an excellent LP.

Let's go back to the Conservative conference at the International

Kathryn is there for us now, with a couple more hopefuls

How do they rate their chances, Kathryn?

Good morning. Delegates are starting to trickle in here at the ICC. They

are a little bit jittery after a turbulent start but the party

faithful are arriving, incltding some from the Midlands who `re

hoping that they will help the party to that holy grail next year, a

comfortable Conservative majority. I'm joined by two of those new

faces. The prospective parlhamentary candidate for Cannock Chase and

their PPC for Solihull, hophng to take that seat from the Lib Dems.

Amanda, first of all, a high`profile resignation, a defection, a second

defection to UKIP. That's not a good start. The UKIP effect, how much do

you think it's going to havd an impact on Cannock Chase? I know the

council in Cannock Chase, there are more UKIP councillors than

conservative. In Cannock Ch`se, the decision for the electorate next

year is the same position as those will take across the countrx. If our

supporters vote UKIP next M`y, in the general election, what will

happen is they will retain ` Labour MP. There is support for UKHP in

your area. That is starting to filter through. You are not worried

about that? What I want the electorate to do is look at what we

have achieved for the area. We have reduced unemployment, we've got

investment in the electrical improvements to the line. That is

what people need to be thinking about. You are no danger `` stranger

to headlines. Do you think this will have an impact for voters? What I

want the electorate to do is look at what we have really achieved in the

area. We have achieved so mtch. That is what I want to do. I want to be

campaigning on local issues and be a voice for Cannock Chase. Julian in

Solihull, there is a tiny m`rgin. It's just less than 200 votds. The

Lib Dems have a stronghold there. Do you think the UKIP effect whll split

the vote? I know the media love the idea of defections. It's a great

story. I've knocked on many doors around Solihull and barely `nyone

has mentioned defections. What matters to people as delivery of

local services and a strengthening economy. People get it. If they vote

for UKIP or if they vote for a Liberal Democrat in Solihull, they

make it much more likely we end up with Ed Miliband walking into number

ten. There was a poll which was favourable in May. The confdrence

gets under way officially at two o'clock. A last conference speech

from William Hague later. One of the talk is about the party's prospects

and how will it... So all eyes on Birmingham

and we've hardly shaken the dust I don't know if was those olissions

from Ed Miliband's speech, but the mood in Labour's conferdnce hall

was curiously muted for most of it. Was Coventry's Labour Leader Ann

Lucas really just resting hdr eyes? Perhaps Mr Miliband should `lso have

said something about the Because that's what they were all

talking I asked him what was

his approach to devolution for the Midlands in general,

and Birmingham in particular. We want to see a lot more power

devolved in Birmingham. Indded, we've announced plans to devolve

power over important areas like skills, economic development,

transport to city regions, to Birmingham and other places. We are

far too centralised their country. We need councils like Birmingham but

other councils to in the arda, to have those powers and come

together. They need to exercise powers over resources. In tough

times, that can make each pound go further. We are absolutely committed

to that kind of devolution. That raises the question whether

Birmingham is a fit and proper place to devolve powers to? Is thd

authority they're fit for ptrpose? I think it is and I support the work

being done in Birmingham. On Trojan horse, it's a deeply disturbing

thing that has happened with school commissioner is now coming hn to

improve the situation. This is a council operating in very dhfficult

budgetary circumstances. Thd needs of Birmingham need to be looked at.

Of course they do. On other things that will make life easier hn

Birmingham is having more power and more resources of the that latter.

If we can move on to all those marginal constituencies in the West

Midlands, they face a particular challenge in that there are Tory

targets but also, you will have to defend a number of very tight labour

majorities. Look at Dudley North for example. A tiny majority of the

Conservatives and UKIP are very much on the case there. It makes this

general election even more of an unknown quantity. Of course it is

uncertain but what we've done at this conference is set out our plan

for the future, including for the West Midlands. A higher minhmum

wage, more money for the he`lth service paid for not by working

families but by those at thd top of our society, plans for more

apprenticeships which our young people desperately need, to freeze

our energy bill is, build more homes. What you have heard from

later this week is a genuind plan for the future. You've menthoned the

health service. There are a couple of marginals, Stafford and Redditch,

where there are local hospital issues which are playing very

strongly that with experts warning that they could be a ?50 billion

shortfall in health funding during the lifetime of the next Parliament.

You cannot wave a cheque book even with your ?2.5 billion at hospitals.

The dash something radical needs to be done. Things need to change but

the most important thing is we need to improve services in the

community. If we do that, GP services, services for the dlderly,

that will take pressure off hospitals. We do have a plan. That

is the plan be unveiled this week. It will make for a better hdalth

service, more doctors, nursds, care workers and midwives.

Still no word of Labour bringing their mahn autumn

While we hear the Conservathves have committed to three mord here.

I raised the English question because it was one of the

conspicuous omissions from his speech. There was an air of

unreality, given that 80% of the people, according to polls, feel

very strongly about it. Davhd Cameron is making great plax on it.

We have been very clear that we firstly need to give time to English

people. The Scottish people had to wonder half years to discuss their

future and an 85% turnout at the referendum which was remark`ble I

think what is really import`nt at this debate is that we disctss not

what powers Westminster MPs have in Westminster but what powers local

authorities and communities have and how we push power down to a local

level. Those are the sorts of things that people are talking to le about

an hour constituencies. I touched on this in the interview with Lr

Miliband, whether Birminghal for example as a fit and proper place to

devolve powers to, given as we have just seen the education minhster

going in there. There are a number of crises. This is a diffictlt time

to start talking about re`elpowering the great cities. I think on a

national level it is import`nt we address the issue. I don't think we

can kick it into the long grass or forget about it, which is what I

think Ed Miliband will do. The second point is, I know as ` Black

Country and P, this is something that is said to me time and time

again. We don't want to see the Black Country in the shadow

Birmingham. We went a strangler country voice which is reprdsented.

Isn't this another issue? The English question, UKIP look more and

more like the English National party and they can trump your argtment.

It's a robust issue. We cannot duck it as an issue. I've had it raised

with me on the doorstep as well over the weekend. It was an issue

which was raised with me ag`in and again. We need to have some talent

of parity. For the moment, thank you very much.

Earlier we were talking about the potential UKIP Factor

But how will it affect the outcome elsewhere in our swing seats?

Elizabeth Glinka caught up with their leader, Nigel Farage

on a rooftop somewhere in Westminster, just before he set off

What, she wondered, was his view of English devolution?

The first thing we got to do is make sure we have an English parliament

that sits in Westminster and where Scottish MPs are not voting on this

legislation. It is outrageots that our youngsters pay tuition fees

because of Scottish votes in Westminster ten years ago. That

cannot go on. Let's sort out the relationship between the cotntry 's

first and then we will talk about devolution with England.

Specifically for the voters of the West Midlands, do you have `ny ideas

about what that might mean for them? I actually think there is an

argument that says the county councils or the Metropolitan

authorities could have a bigger say over their own lives. Beford the

mid`80s, it was local authorities that said business rates. How you

voted in a local election in those days fundamentally affected the

business rates that paid. I think powers like that could be rdturned

to County Council level. Level. I speak to is a major issue in the

West Midlands. It is somethhng you are not keen on. `` HS2. But we

could have an engineering college which could create thousands of

jobs, how do you sell your opposition to the people of the

region? That sounds fine and dandy until you understand we are up

against European procurement rules. There is no guarantee that `nyone

that works on the project whll actually come from this country

When we have the Olympics in London, lots and lots of jobs were

created but hardly any of them were created for local people. Some of

the estimates are for 50,000 jobs to not telling me that everythhng one

of those jobs would be filldd by a foreign worker. One hears bhg claims

made for what it will do for the economy. I'm deeply sceptic`l about

those claims but more importantly, I don't think the new vast sw`thes

being cut through the West Lidlands in the form of this railway line

something that people actually want. Another issue on which UKIP are

making great play, particul`rly in areas like Warwickshire and

Worcestershire where you have marginal seats. They are making the

running on high`speed rail. They are talking the talk on it but

ultimately, we walked the w`lk. The reality is, in our constitudncies,

you see Indian investment coming into the UK. The UK is a grdat place

to invest. We have skills hdre and the right mindset. Why wouldn't

people come and invest? What is the position under an incoming Labour

government? In this studio, Ed balls was extremely cool on the project.

There have been concerns from those who support the project that a

Labour government would go cool `` Balls. We have been clear that we

would support it. That is not a blank cheque so we need to bear down

on the costs. What is reallx important, and I would agred with

Paul on this matter, is that what we need to do in the West Midl`nds and

the Black Country in partictlar is to attract jobs and investmdnt.

High`speed rail and our membership of the EU is key to that. Wd have a

country which is to focus on London and the south`east. We need to make

sure those opportunities ard spread throughout our regions, including

the Black Country. Now our regular round`up

of the political week It's brought to us today by

BBC Midlands Today's Amy Cole. Shropshire's direct train sdrvice to

London will be restored Virgin's plans have been signed off

by the Office of Rail Regul`tion. The former West Midlands MEP Lord

Cashman was appointed as an envoy on lesbian, gay, bisexual and

transgender issues by Ed Miliband at Sir Mike Tomlinson has also got

a new job. He'll be the Education Commhssioner

for Birmingham overseeing the schools in the wake

of the Trojan Horse affair. Lord Heseltine endorsed

the new Skills Hub website. It's been set up by

Greater Birmingham Chamber of Commerce and a consortiul of

colleges to help employers to get And demonstrators opposed to

military action in Iraq gathered in Birmingham

as MPs were recalled to the Commons to approve British involvemdnt in

air strikes against Islamic State. Bramleys predominately tend to call

it the Islamic State. That hs what it is. It has no place in the of

Islam. `` Brummies. I asked him what his solution was. He was lecturing

us and being fairly aggresshve and shouting, as he tends to do, about

what we were planning to do. I think this is a very sensitive issue and a

difficult issue. It is one H voted for with a heavy heart. All I would

say is there are great risks to doing nothing. There are risks that

risks of turning our backs on the Iraqi people. The terrorists would

gain even more ground. I was questioning him in terms of his

solution. There are people who are uneasy about it and have serious

concerns. I think there are great risks to not happen that acting

Isn't there a greater risk of causing more radicalisation at

home. Also acting as a recrtiting sergeant. This was raised in the

chamber on a couple of occasions. The point was made again and again

that it has to be seen in the context of what I saw was doing ``

ISIL. British citizens are `ware that they are killing Muslils,

anybody who fundamentally dhsagrees with them. Psychopathic is ht and it

has been used and I think that's totally apt. This group is `gainst

those people who take a contrary view to them. It's not just an

Islamic issue here. Uppal. Next Sunday we'll have

an interview with David Camdron And I'll also be talking to

the Deputy Prime Minister, the Liberal Democrat leader

Nick Clegg, as he prepares for We'll have more on Midlands Today,

which also celebrates its 50th anniversary tomorrow,

at 6.30pm here on BBC One. This though is where we rettrn live

to Birmingham's convention centre, My thanks to you both. Andrew, back

to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with

the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come

here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in

their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked

out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets

under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an

article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the

heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as

a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running

for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a

five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about

campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous

Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong

turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to

UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do

you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?

Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many

more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any

more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant

sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,

namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I

think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because

that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be

a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there

could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two

labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.

How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after

he had a really bad performance that his television performance was

suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed

Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches

is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing

for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore

failed the Prime Minister test. I think the real problem for him was

forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues

which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and

inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if

you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really

not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.

Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the

nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by

heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn

70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to

sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just

beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,

but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked

once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the

derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,

they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the

omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing

seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is

almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour

and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.

You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the

borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,

because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference

will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's

speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more

global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at

this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up

at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to

change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they

would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in

double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his

party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,

come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It

will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.

When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,

with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in

the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I

may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless

this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was

talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate

because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the

deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be

really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the

kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,

Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat

and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think

today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to

say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It

is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party

somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.

But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,

for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight

for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do

not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold

on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was

going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.

But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One

problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at

economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people

love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about

relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will

be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the

conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable

is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the

Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay

in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party

to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we

are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and

people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will

not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is

happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where

the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere

near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to

win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,

it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in

a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with

cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister

more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the

gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his

rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron

Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I

hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far

with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I

know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a

wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are

worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about

the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the

economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet

there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.

They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has

to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of

the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does

not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him

do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of

driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice

people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically

quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is

himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want

to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do

not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from

the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,

Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the

nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get

into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only

win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All

teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not

think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think

this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we

can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not

buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right

today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.

We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.

I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour

conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it

is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in

sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it

with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,

but it's too late! of statutory press regulation in

sponge cake may be a bridge too far.