20/11/2016 Sunday Politics West Midlands


20/11/2016

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Morning folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May says she'll deliver on Brexit but does that mean leaving

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the EU's Single Market and the Customs Union?

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Tory MPs campaign for a commitment from the Prime

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The Chancellor pledges just over a billion pounds worth of spending

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on Britain's roads but is that it or will there be

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And in the Midlands: 18 days in the job.

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Labour expelled their Milit`nt Tendency three decades ago.

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Now they want Jeremy Corbyn to let them back in.

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in London: Is the battle for Richmond Park based on the skies? Or

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is it about a bigger conflict in Europe?

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And with me - as always - and, no, these three aren't doing

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the Mannequin challenge - it's our dynamic, demonstrative

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dazzling political panel - Helen Lewis, Isabel Oakeshott

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and Tom Newton Dunn they'll also be tweeting throughout the programme.

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First this morning - Theresa May has said

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"Brexit means Brexit" - but can the Prime Minister -

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who was on the Remain side of argument during the referendum

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Well, Leave-supporting Tory MPs are re-launching

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the "European Research Group" this morning to keep Mrs May's feet

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Are you worried that you cannot trust Theresa May until payment to

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deliver full Brexit was Magellan like I totally trust Theresa May,

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100% behind her. She has displayed a massive amount of commitment to

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making a success of Brexit for the country.

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We don't know that yet, because nothing has happened. Why, then

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have you formed a pressure group? We were fed up with the negativity

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coming out around Brexit. I feel positive about the opportunities we

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face, and we are a group to provide suggestions. Who do you have in mind

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when you talk about negativity the Chancellor? No, from the Lib Dems,

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for example, from Labour MPs. This is a pressure group for leaving

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membership of the single market and customs union, correct? That is what

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we are proposing. It has a purpose other than just to combat

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negativity. When it comes to membership of the single market and

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the customs union, can you tell us what Government policy is towards

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both or either? Rightly, the Government hasn't made the position

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clear, and I think that is the right approach, because we don't want to

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review our negotiating hand. What we're saying... I'm not asking what

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you are saying. Can you tell us what Government policy is towards

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membership of these institutions? The Government wants to make sure

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British businesses have the right to trade with EU partners, to forge new

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trade deals with the rest of the world. We hope to Reza may speak at

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Mansion house this week. -- we had Theresa May speak at Mansion house

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this week. She has been clear, saying it was not a binary choice.

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And she's right. Let's run that tape, because I want to pick up on

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what she did say. This is what she had to say about the customs union

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at Prime Minister's Question Time. On the whole question of the customs

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union, trading relationships that we have with the European Union and

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other parts of the world once we have left the European Union, we are

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preparing carefully for the formal negotiations. We are preparing

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carefully for the formal negotiations. We want to ensure we

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have the best possible trading deal with the EU once we have left. Do

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you know what she means when she says being in the customs union is

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not a binary choice? I think she's right when she says that. At the

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moment, and you know this, as long as we are in the customs union, we

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cannot set our own tariffs or rules, cannot have a free trade agreement

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with the US or China. We need to leave a customs union to do that.

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Binary means either you are in or you are out, self which is it? We

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still want to trade with the EU and I think we can have a free trade

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agreement with the EU. That is a separate matter, and it has to do

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with the single market. What about the customs union? We need to leave

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the customs union. We do it and properly. That is how to get the

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most out of this opportunity. Summit is a binary choice? The Prime

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Minister is right when she says it's not a binary choice. Both can't be

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right. We can leave the customs union, get their benefits, and have

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a free trade agreement with zero tariffs with the EU. So it is a

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binary choice an either be stale really. Yellow like I am saying the

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Prime Minister is right when she says it is not a binary choice. -- I

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am saying the Prime Minister is right. We need clarity. Youth had

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said -- you have said it is a binary choice. We need to leave the

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constraints of the customs union. It pushes up prices. The EU is not

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securing the right trade deals, and if we want to make the most of it,

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we need to get out there and get some deals going. Do you accept that

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if we remain in the customs union, we cannot do our own free-trade

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deals? Yellow right 100%. That is why we have to leave. -- 100%. Do

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you accept that if we leave the customs union but stay with

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substantial access, I don't say membership, but substantial access

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to the single market, that goods going from this country to the

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single market because we're no longer in the union will be subject

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to complicated rules of origin regulations, which could cost

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business ?13 billion a year? I would like to see a free-trade agreement

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between the UK and the EU. Look at the Canadian deal. I give you that,

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but if we're not in the customs union, things that we bring in on

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our own tariffs once we've left we can't just export again willy-nilly

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to the EU. They will demand to see rules of origin. Norway has to do

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that at the moment and it is highly complicated expensive. I think if we

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agree a particular arrangement as part of this agreement with the EU,

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we can reach an agreement on that which sets a lower standard, which

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sets a different level of tariffs, which protects some of our

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industries. Let's suppose we have pretty much free trade with the EU

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but we are out of the customs union, and let's suppose that the European

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Union has a 20% tariff on Japanese whisky and we decide to have a %

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tariff - what then happens to the whisky that comes into Britain and

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goes on to the EU? The EU will not let that in. That will be part of

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the negotiation. I think there is a huge benefit for external operators.

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Every bottle of Japanese whisky they will have to work out the rules

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of origin. There have been studies that show there is a potential for

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50% increase in global product if we leave. We're losing the benefits of

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free trade. I understand, I am asking for your particular view

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Thank you for that. Is it not surprising Mr Hannan could

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not bring himself to say we would leave the customs union? It is

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messy. The reason there is this new group of Tory MPs signing up to a

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campaign to make sure we get a genuine Brexit is because there is

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this vacuum. It is being filled with all sorts of briefing from the other

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side. There is a real risk in the minds of Brexit supporting MPs that

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the remaining side are going to try to hijack the process, not only

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through the Supreme Court action, which I think most Brexit MPs seem

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to accept the appeal will fail, but further down the line, through

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amendments to the great repeal bill. This is a pressure group to try to

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hold the Prime Minister to account. There is plenty of pressure on the

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Prime Minister effectively to stay in the single market and the customs

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union, and if you do both of these things, de facto, you have stayed in

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the EU. She is in a difficult position because there is no good

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faith assumption about what Theresa May wants because she was a

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Remainer. There is all this talk about a transitional arrangement,

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but she can't sell that as someone who voted to remain. The way Isabel

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has characterised it is interesting. There is a betrayal narrative.

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Everyone is looking to say that she has betrayed the true Brexit. Since

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the Government cannot give a clear indication of what it once in terms

:10:23.:10:28.

of the customs union, which sets external tariffs, or the single

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market, which is the free movement of people, capital, goods and

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services, others are filling this vacuum. Right. The reasons they

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can't do this are, first, they don't know if they can get it or not. We

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saw this with the renegotiation the last Prime Minister. What are they

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hoping to get? The world on a stick, to get cake and eat it. You go into

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a negotiation saying, let's see what we can get in total. Are they going

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to ask the membership of the single market? Yellow I think they will ask

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for a free trade agreement involving everything. You can demand what you

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want. The question is, do they stand a cat's chance in hell of getting

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it? They don't know. Welcome back. We will be back, believe me. It is

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150 day since we found out the UK had voted to leave the EU, but as we

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have heard, remain and leave campaigners continue to battle about

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what type of relationship we should have with the EU after exit.

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Leave campaigners say that leaving the EU

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also means quitting the

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Single Market, the internal European trading bloc that includes free

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movement of goods, services, capital and people.

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They point to evidence that leading Leave supporting

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politicians ruled out staying in the Single Market during

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Andrea Leadsom, for example, said it would almost

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certainly be the case that the UK would come out of the Single Market.

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When asked for a yes or no on whether the UK should stay

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"No, we should be outside the Single Market."

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And Boris Johnson agreed with his erstwhile ally, saying, "Michael

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Gove was absolutely right to say the UK

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They've released a video of clips of Leave campaigners speaking before

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the referendum apparently saying that the UK should stay in the

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Nigel Farage, for example, once said that on leaving

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the EU we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area

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Owen Paterson, the former Environment Secretary,

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once made the startling statement that only a madman would actually

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And Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief, said

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that the Norwegian option would be initially attractive for some

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But do these quotes create an accurate picture of what

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To cast some light on where these quotes came from we're

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joined by James McGrory, director of Open Britain

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. . Your video has statements from leave

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campaigners hinting they want to stay in the single market. How many

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were made during the referendum campaign? I don't know. Not one was

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made during the referendum campaign. Indeed, only two of the 12

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statements were recorded after Royal assent had been given to the

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referendum. Only one was made this year before the referendum.

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Throughout the campaign am a leave campaigners lauded the Norwegian

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model. Norway are in the single market but not in the EU. They went

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out of their way not to be pinned down on a specific trading

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arrangement they want to see in the future with Europe, when the

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Treasury model the different models it was the EEA or a free-trade

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agreement. I understand. Does it not undermine your case that none of the

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12 statements on your video were made during the campaign itself

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when people were giving really serious thought to such matters The

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Leave campaign weren't giving serious thought to such matters

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They did not set out the future trading model they wanted to see.

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But you cannot produce a single video with somebody saying we should

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stay in the single market during the campaign. Daniel Hanna had talked

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about the Norwegian model as a future option. One comment from

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Nigel Farage dates back to 2009 when we didn't even know if we would

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have a referendum or not. Does it not stretch credibility to go back

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to the time when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister? The overall point

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stands. It is not supposed to be an exhaustive list of the options.

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Daniel Hannan, described as the intellectual godfather of the Leave

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movement is saying that no one is talking about threatening our place

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in the signal market. I think it's legitimate to point out the Leave

:15:20.:15:23.

campaign never came forward with a credible argument. We have

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highlighted some of the quotes you picked out from leave campaigners

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over time. Do you think you have fully encapsulated their arguments

:15:31.:15:37.

accurately? I don't think in a 2nd video you can talk about the full

:15:38.:15:43.

thing. -- a 90-2nd video. Some of them want to seek a free-trade

:15:44.:15:47.

agreement, some to default on to World Trade Organisation tariffs.

:15:48.:15:55.

There is a range of opinion in the Leave campaign. Let's listen to the

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clip you used on Owen Paterson first.

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Only a madman would actually leave the market.

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Only a madman would actually leave the market.

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It's not the EU which is

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a political organisation delivering the prosperity and buying our goods.

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It's the market, it's the members of the market and we'll carry on

:16:15.:16:18.

I mean, are we really suggesting that the

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economy in the world is not going to come to come

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to a satisfactory trading arrangement with the EU?

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Are we going to be like Sudan and North

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It is ludicrous this idea that we are going to leap off a

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What he said when he said only a madman would leave Europe, was that

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we would continue to trade, we would continue to have access. Any country

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in the world can have access. What the Leave campaign suggested is our

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trade would continue uninterrupted, they are still at it today, David

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Davis used the phrase, uninterrupted, from the dispatch box

:16:57.:17:00.

recently. You misrepresented him by saying only a madman would leave the

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Single Market and stopped it there, because he goes onto say that of

:17:05.:17:08.

course we want Leave in the sense of continuing to have access. I don't

:17:09.:17:10.

think he was about axis, he is talking

:17:11.:17:28.

about membership. He doesn't use the word membership at all. He talks

:17:29.:17:31.

about we are going to carry on trading with them, we will not leap

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off, we will carry on trading. Anybody can trade with the EU, it's

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the terms on which you trade that is important and leave campaigners and

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Patterson is an example of this saying we can trade as we do now,

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the government saying we can trade without bureaucratic impediments and

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tariff free. The viewers will make up their mind. Let's listen to the

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views of Matthew Elliott, the Chief Executive of Vote Leave.

:17:47.:17:47.

When it comes to the Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that

:17:48.:17:50.

it might be initially attractive for some business people.

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So you then cut him off there but this is what he went on to say in

:17:53.:17:56.

the same clip, let's listen to that. When it comes to the Norwegian

:17:57.:18:00.

option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive

:18:01.:18:03.

for some business people. But then again for voters

:18:04.:18:05.

who are increasingly concerned about migration in the EU,

:18:06.:18:09.

they will be very concerned that it allows free movement

:18:10.:18:12.

of people to continue. Again, you have misrepresented him.

:18:13.:18:24.

He said the Norwegian model has attractions but there are real

:18:25.:18:26.

problems if it involves free movement of people, which it does.

:18:27.:18:30.

But you cut that bit out. I challenge anyone to represent them

:18:31.:18:34.

accurately because they took such a range of opinions. I don't know what

:18:35.:18:37.

we are supposed to do. You are misrepresenting them. He is saying

:18:38.:18:41.

the Norwegian option is attractive to business, I understand why. It

:18:42.:18:46.

might not be attractive for voters. But then he said if it allowed free

:18:47.:18:52.

movement of people it could be an issue. You took that out. You are

:18:53.:18:57.

saying this is a definitive position. I'm suggesting you are

:18:58.:19:00.

distorting it. This is what you had Mr Farage say.

:19:01.:19:02.

On D+1 we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area

:19:03.:19:05.

This is what he then went on to say in that same clip that you didn t

:19:06.:19:12.

run. There is absolutely

:19:13.:19:13.

nothing to fear in terms of trade from leaving

:19:14.:19:15.

the on D+1 we'll find ourselves part

:19:16.:19:16.

of the European Economic Area and we should use our

:19:17.:19:21.

membership of the EEA as a holding position from which

:19:22.:19:30.

we can negotiate as the European Union's biggest export

:19:31.:19:33.

market in the world, as good a deal, my goodness me,

:19:34.:19:35.

if Switzerland can have one we So there again, he says not that we

:19:36.:19:45.

should stay in the Single Market as a member, but that we stay in the EA

:19:46.:19:50.

as a transition until we negotiate something. -- EEA. This whole clip

:19:51.:20:00.

is online, how would you get away with this distortion? It is not a

:20:01.:20:04.

distortion, the whole point is to point out they do not have a

:20:05.:20:07.

definitive position, he is arguing for membership of the Single Market,

:20:08.:20:11.

for a transitional period. For the transition. How long does that go

:20:12.:20:15.

on, what does he want to then achieve? Not very quickly but he

:20:16.:20:18.

does not say we should stay members of the Single Market and you didn't

:20:19.:20:22.

let people see what he went on to say, you gave the impression he

:20:23.:20:26.

wanted to stay in the one it. It would not be a video then, it would

:20:27.:20:30.

be a seven-week long lecture. They took so many positions, and the idea

:20:31.:20:33.

now that they were clear with people that we should definitely leave the

:20:34.:20:37.

Single Market I think is fictitious. You are trying to make out they all

:20:38.:20:41.

had one position which was to remain members of the one it. You see the

:20:42.:20:46.

full clips that is not what they are saying. We are trying to point out

:20:47.:20:50.

there is no mandate to leave the Single Market. The idea the Leave

:20:51.:20:53.

campaign spoke with unanimity and clarity of purpose and throughout

:20:54.:20:56.

the whole campaign said we will definitely leave the Single Market

:20:57.:21:00.

is not true. That is the whole point of the media. We showed in the

:21:01.:21:04.

montage in the video just before we came on, we said that then Prime

:21:05.:21:08.

Minister, the then Chancellor, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, being

:21:09.:21:12.

categorical that if you vote to leave the EU, you vote to leave

:21:13.:21:15.

membership of the Single Market What bit of that didn't you

:21:16.:21:18.

understand? Under duress they occasionally said they wanted to

:21:19.:21:21.

leave. Some of them wanted to leave the Single Market. All of the other

:21:22.:21:28.

promises they made, whether ?35 million for the NHS, whether a VAT

:21:29.:21:32.

cut on fuel, points-based system. You do not have a single quote of

:21:33.:21:35.

any of these members saying they want to be a member. Daniel Hannan

:21:36.:21:39.

has said consistently that Norway are a part of the Single Market You

:21:40.:21:44.

spend the referendum campaign criticising for Rim misrepresenting

:21:45.:21:46.

and misrepresenting and lying and many thought they did. Having seen

:21:47.:21:49.

this many will conclude that you are the biggest liars. I think it is

:21:50.:21:53.

perfectly reasonable to point out that the Leave campaign did not have

:21:54.:21:57.

a clear position on our future trading relationship with Europe.

:21:58.:22:00.

That is all this video does. It doesn't say we definitely have to

:22:01.:22:04.

stay in the Single Market, it just says they do have a mandate to drag

:22:05.:22:08.

us out of our biggest trading partner.

:22:09.:22:11.

Now people have seen the full quotes in context our viewers will make up

:22:12.:22:12.

their mind. Thank you. Now - voting closes next week

:22:13.:22:14.

in the the Ukip leadership contest. The second Ukip leadership contest

:22:15.:22:17.

this year after the party's first female leader - Diane James -

:22:18.:22:20.

stood down from the role Since then the party's lurched from

:22:21.:22:22.

farce to fiasco. It's a world gripped by uncertainty,

:22:23.:22:25.

split into factions. Yes, 2, because they're

:22:26.:22:41.

having their second Watch as the alpha male,

:22:42.:22:51.

the Ukip leader at Nigel Watch as the alpha male,

:22:52.:22:59.

the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, hands power to the new alpha

:23:00.:23:01.

female Diane James. The European Parliament

:23:02.:23:03.

in Strasbourg, October. Another leading light and possible

:23:04.:23:17.

future leader, the MEP Steven Wolfe,

:23:18.:23:20.

has been laid low after an alleged tussle with a colleague

:23:21.:23:23.

during a meeting. A few days later he is

:23:24.:23:25.

out of hospital and I will be withdrawing my

:23:26.:23:27.

application to become I'm actually withdrawing

:23:28.:23:31.

myself from Ukip. You're resigning from the party

:23:32.:23:35.

I'm resigning with immediate effect. And this week a leaked document

:23:36.:23:41.

suggested the party improperly spent EU funds on political

:23:42.:23:44.

campaigning in the UK. Another headache for whoever takes

:23:45.:23:49.

over the leadership of the pack One contender is Suzanne Evans,

:23:50.:23:56.

a former Tory councillor and was briefly suspended for

:23:57.:23:59.

disloyalty. Also standing, Paul Nuttall,

:24:00.:24:07.

an MEP from Liverpool who has been by Farage's side

:24:08.:24:10.

as his deputy for six years. There's another big beast

:24:11.:24:16.

in the Ukip leadership contest, and I'm told

:24:17.:24:18.

that today he can be spotted He's John Rees-Evans,

:24:19.:24:21.

a businessman and adventurer who is offering members the chance

:24:22.:24:26.

to propose policies via a website We've got really dedicated

:24:27.:24:29.

passionate supporters who feel like they're not really

:24:30.:24:43.

being listened to and are not even Typically what happens

:24:44.:24:46.

is they just basically sit there until six months before

:24:47.:24:49.

a General Election when they are contacted and asked to go out

:24:50.:24:52.

and leaflet and canvas. Even at branch level people feel

:24:53.:24:54.

there is not an adequate flow of communication

:24:55.:24:56.

up-and-down the party. Are you not going to take part in

:24:57.:24:58.

any hustings? He left a hustings saying

:24:59.:25:07.

the contest was an establishment coronation and has

:25:08.:25:10.

made colourful comments in the past. He's in favour of the death penalty

:25:11.:25:13.

for crimes like paedophilia. I think there is a clear

:25:14.:25:16.

will amongst the offences should be dealt with

:25:17.:25:18.

decisively. But again, on an issue like that,

:25:19.:25:21.

that is something that Our members are not

:25:22.:25:24.

going to agree with me on everything and I don't believe that

:25:25.:25:29.

I would have any authority to have the say and determine

:25:30.:25:32.

the future What method would you use

:25:33.:25:34.

for the death penalty? Again, that is something that could

:25:35.:25:37.

be determined by suggestions made So you'd have like an online

:25:38.:25:40.

poll about whether you use the electric chair,

:25:41.:25:44.

or lethal injection? For example, arguments would be made

:25:45.:25:50.

in favour of This is such a small aspect

:25:51.:25:52.

of what I'm standing for. Essentially, in mainstream media

:25:53.:25:56.

they try to by focusing on pretty irrelevant

:25:57.:25:58.

details. This is one vote that

:25:59.:26:04.

the membership would have. What I'm actually trying to do

:26:05.:26:06.

in this party is to revolutionise the democratic

:26:07.:26:10.

process in the UK, and that's really what your viewers should

:26:11.:26:13.

be concentrating on. With him at the helm he reckons Ukip

:26:14.:26:17.

would win at Meanwhile, in New York,

:26:18.:26:19.

on a visit to Trump Tower, Nigel Farage admired the plumage

:26:20.:26:27.

of the President-elect, a man he has described as

:26:28.:26:36.

a silverback gorilla, a friendship that's been condemned by some

:26:37.:26:39.

in this leadership contest. There are also elections

:26:40.:26:42.

to the party's National Executive Committee, a body

:26:43.:26:44.

that's been roundly criticised by And we're joined now by two

:26:45.:26:47.

of the candidates in the Ukip leadership election -

:26:48.:27:01.

Suzanne Evans and Paul Nuttall. We are going to kick off by giving

:27:02.:27:11.

each of them 30 seconds to lay out their case as to why they would be

:27:12.:27:14.

the less leader starting with Suzanne Evans.

:27:15.:27:18.

Ukip is at its best when it is scaring the political establishment,

:27:19.:27:20.

forcing it to address those problems it would rather ignore. But it

:27:21.:27:25.

really change people's lives for the better and fast, we need to win

:27:26.:27:28.

seats and elections right across the country. To win at the ballot box we

:27:29.:27:32.

need to attract more women, more ethnic

:27:33.:27:52.

minorities, and more of those Labour voters who no longer recognise their

:27:53.:27:54.

party. I know how to do that. Ukip under my

:27:55.:27:58.

leadership will be the same page about it, common-sense, radical

:27:59.:28:00.

party it has always been, just even more successful. Thank you, Suzanne

:28:01.:28:02.

Evans, Paul Nuttall. I'm standing on a platform of unity and experience.

:28:03.:28:04.

I believe the party must come together if it is to survive and

:28:05.:28:07.

prosper. I believe I'm the best candidate to ensure that happens, I

:28:08.:28:10.

am not part of any faction in the party, and beyond that I have done

:28:11.:28:12.

every single job within the party, whether that is as head of policy,

:28:13.:28:15.

whether that is Party Chairman, deputy leader for Nigel for the past

:28:16.:28:17.

six years. I believe Ukip has great opportunities in Labour

:28:18.:28:19.

constituencies where we can move in and become the Patriot invoice of

:28:20.:28:23.

working people, and beyond that we have to ensure the government's feet

:28:24.:28:26.

are held to the fire on Brexit and we get real Brexit, not a

:28:27.:28:33.

mealy-mouthed version. How will you get a grip on this? People have to

:28:34.:28:37.

realise that the cause is bigger than any personality, we have to get

:28:38.:28:41.

together in a room and sort out not just a spokespeople role but roles

:28:42.:28:44.

within the organisation, Party Chairman, party secretary, and

:28:45.:28:49.

whatnot. But as I say, Ukip must unite, we are on 13% in the opinion

:28:50.:28:53.

polls, the future is bright, there are open goals but Ukip must be on

:28:54.:28:58.

the pitch to score them. He says he's the only one that can get a

:28:59.:29:01.

grip on this party. I disagree, I have a huge amount of experience in

:29:02.:29:05.

the party as well and also a background that I think means I can

:29:06.:29:08.

help bring people together. I have always said nothing breeds unity

:29:09.:29:19.

faster than success and under my leadership we will be successful.

:29:20.:29:21.

There is concern about the future of our National Executive Committee

:29:22.:29:23.

going forward. Mr Farage called it the lowest grade of people I have

:29:24.:29:26.

ever met, do you agree? I think he must have been having a bad day I

:29:27.:29:29.

think we need to make it more accountable to the membership, more

:29:30.:29:32.

open, more democratic. What would you do with the National Executive

:29:33.:29:37.

Committee? I have been calling for the National Executive Committee to

:29:38.:29:41.

be elected reasonably since 201 giving the members better

:29:42.:29:44.

communication lines and make it far more transparent. Would you have a

:29:45.:29:48.

clear out of the office? I wouldn't, I think the chairman of the party,

:29:49.:29:52.

Paul Upton, the interim chairman, is doing a good job and the only person

:29:53.:29:56.

who has come out of the summer with his reputation enhanced. Let me show

:29:57.:29:59.

you a picture we have all seen of your current leader, Mr Farage, with

:30:00.:30:06.

President-elect Donald Trump. Paul Nuttall, you criticise Mr Farage's

:30:07.:30:10.

decision to appear at rallies during the American election and called Mr

:30:11.:30:14.

Trump appalling. Do you stick by that? I wouldn't have voted for him.

:30:15.:30:19.

I made it clear. Do you still think he's appalling now that he is

:30:20.:30:23.

President-elect? Some of the things he said were appalling during the

:30:24.:30:28.

campaign that he said. But he would be good for Britain, trade,

:30:29.:30:31.

pro-Brexit and he is an Anglo file and the first thing he did was put

:30:32.:30:34.

the bust of Winston Churchill back in the Oval Office. You, Suzanne

:30:35.:30:40.

Evans, called Mr Trump one of the weakest candidates the US has had. I

:30:41.:30:44.

said the same about Hillary Clinton. They cannot both be the weakest The

:30:45.:30:48.

better candidate on either side would have beaten the other, that is

:30:49.:30:52.

quite clear. Do you stand by that, or are you glad that your leader Mr

:30:53.:30:57.

Farage has strong ties to him? I am, why wouldn't I be? For Ukip to have

:30:58.:31:02.

that direct connection, it can be only good for a party. Were you not

:31:03.:31:06.

out of step and Mr Farage is in step because it looks like your vote is

:31:07.:31:09.

according to polling I have seemed like Mr Trump and his policies? Let

:31:10.:31:15.

me finish. If I am the leader of Ukip I will not be involving myself

:31:16.:31:18.

in foreign elections, I will because in trading here in this country

:31:19.:31:22.

ensuring we get Ukip people elected to council chambers and get seats in

:31:23.:31:24.

2020. The other thing your leader has in

:31:25.:31:34.

common with Mr Trump is that he rather admires Vladimir Putin. Do

:31:35.:31:40.

you? I don't. If you look at Putin's record, he has invaded Ukraine and

:31:41.:31:47.

Georgia. I am absolutely not a fan. I think that Vladimir Putin is

:31:48.:31:51.

pretty much a nasty man, but beyond that, I believe that in the Middle

:31:52.:31:57.

East, he is generally getting it right in many areas. We need to

:31:58.:32:03.

bring the conflict... Bombing civilians? We need to bring the

:32:04.:32:07.

conflict to an end as fast as possible. The British and American

:32:08.:32:11.

line before Donald Trump is to support rebels, including one is

:32:12.:32:19.

affiliated to Al-Qaeda, to the Taliban. We need to clear these

:32:20.:32:22.

people out and ensure that Syria becomes stable. This controversial

:32:23.:32:30.

breaking point poster from during the referendum campaign. Mr Farage

:32:31.:32:33.

unveiled it, there he is standing in front of it. You can bend it - do

:32:34.:32:39.

you still? Yes, I think it was the wrong poster at the wrong time. I

:32:40.:32:43.

was involved with the vote Leave campaign as well as Ukip's campaign,

:32:44.:32:47.

and I felt strongly that those concerned about immigration were

:32:48.:32:50.

already going to vote to leave because it was a fundamental truth

:32:51.:32:54.

that unless we left the European Union we couldn't control

:32:55.:32:57.

immigration. I thought it was about approaching those soft wavering

:32:58.:33:05.

voters who weren't sure. I don't think I said it was racist, but it

:33:06.:33:10.

was about sovereignty and trade and so forth. That was where we needed

:33:11.:33:13.

to go. I was concerned it might put off some of those wavering voters.

:33:14.:33:18.

People may well say, it was part of the winning campaign. It was Ukip

:33:19.:33:24.

shock and all, which is what you stand for and what makes you

:33:25.:33:31.

different. I said I would know how that I said I would not have gone

:33:32.:33:34.

for that person and I thought it was wrong to do it just a week out from

:33:35.:33:37.

the referendum. However, I believe it released legitimate concerns

:33:38.:33:44.

with a deluge of people making their way from the Middle East and Africa

:33:45.:33:52.

into the European continent. Where is the low hanging fruit for you,

:33:53.:33:56.

particularly in England? Is it Labour or Conservative voters? I

:33:57.:34:01.

want to hang onto the Conservative voters we have got but I think the

:34:02.:34:06.

low hanging fruit is Labour. Jeremy Corbyn won't sing the national

:34:07.:34:10.

anthem, Emily Thornbury despises the English flag. Diane Abbott thinks

:34:11.:34:14.

anyone talking about immigration is racist. Not to mention John

:34:15.:34:18.

McDonnell's feelings about the IRA. Labour has ceased to be a party for

:34:19.:34:22.

working people and I think Ukip is absolutely going to be that party.

:34:23.:34:27.

It is clear, I absolutely concur with everything Suzanne has said. I

:34:28.:34:33.

first voiced this back in 2008 that I believe Ukip has a fantastic

:34:34.:34:37.

opportunity in working-class communities, and everyone laughed at

:34:38.:34:41.

me. It is clear now that we resonate with working people, and you have

:34:42.:34:43.

seen that in the Brexit result. Would you bring back the death

:34:44.:34:50.

penalty? It wouldn't be Ukip policy. Absolutely not. Would you give more

:34:51.:34:54.

money to the NHS and how would your fanatic? You like it is important to

:34:55.:34:58.

fund it adequately, and it hasn t been to date. We promised in our

:34:59.:35:08.

manifesto that we would give more money. Where does the money come

:35:09.:35:12.

from? It is about tackling health tourism. I think the NHS is being

:35:13.:35:17.

taken for a ride at the moment. That may be right, but where does the

:35:18.:35:23.

money come from? It is about scaling back management in the NHS, because

:35:24.:35:26.

that has burgeoned beyond control. They are spending far more money on

:35:27.:35:31.

management. Where would you save money? We need to look at HS two,

:35:32.:35:36.

foreign aid. Now we have Brexit and we will be saving on the membership

:35:37.:35:41.

fee. We need to cut back on management, as Suzanne says. It

:35:42.:35:45.

cannot be right that 51% of people who work for the NHS in England are

:35:46.:35:51.

not clinically qualified. The NHS needs money now - where would you

:35:52.:35:58.

get it? From HS two. That is capital spending spread over a long period.

:35:59.:36:03.

Where will you get the money now? OK, another one. We spent ?25

:36:04.:36:07.

million every day on foreign aid to countries who sometimes are richer

:36:08.:36:12.

than ourselves. Through the Barnett formula. You would take money away

:36:13.:36:16.

from Scotland? Yes, I think they get far too much. PG tips or Earl Grey?

:36:17.:36:32.

Colegrave. PG tips. Strictly come dancing or X Factor? Neither.

:36:33.:36:40.

Strictly. I would love to be on it one day. There you go. Thank you

:36:41.:36:45.

It's just gone 11:35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:46.:36:49.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:36:50.:36:52.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:36:53.:37:03.

Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.

:37:04.:37:06.

Labour expelled its Militant Tendency 30 years ago,

:37:07.:37:11.

including the former Coventry MP Dave Nellist.

:37:12.:37:17.

Now he's one of five Midlanders among 75 socialists who want

:37:18.:37:20.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Partx to have them back.

:37:21.:37:24.

I'll be asking the former L`bour transport minister David Jalieson,

:37:25.:37:30.

better known now as the West Midlands Police Commissioner,

:37:31.:37:33.

and Mike Wood, elected last year as the Conservative MP for the key

:37:34.:37:40.

Good to have you both with us here today.

:37:41.:37:47.

And we'll also be be finding out what the lower pound means,

:37:48.:37:50.

after that Brexit vote, for economic prospects

:37:51.:37:51.

here in our part of the country But we begin with the polithcal

:37:52.:37:55.

Despite the deafening sound of political and business ldaders

:37:56.:38:01.

eating their words about Donald Trump, from one

:38:02.:38:04.

Birmingham Labour MP and Shadow Minister comes no

:38:05.:38:06.

Jack Dromey said back in January Mr Trump should be

:38:07.:38:12.

banned from Britain, just as he wanted Muslims to be

:38:13.:38:16.

Mr Dromey's certainly not modifying his opinions.

:38:17.:38:24.

Donald Trump is a loathsome xenophobe, who divides.

:38:25.:38:27.

But he won because he spoke to those with a raft of discontents.

:38:28.:38:32.

And we ignore the voice of those who feel left behind at our peril.

:38:33.:38:39.

This is a crisis for liberal democracy - America,

:38:40.:38:41.

We're living through dangerous times.

:38:42.:38:45.

I think the key point that Jack Dromey is worrying abott..

:38:46.:38:47.

As you need no reminder, Mike, we live in a complex, diverse,

:38:48.:38:50.

multicultural community, and he feels that the rhetoric

:38:51.:38:55.

from Donald Trump both emboldens the English Defence League `nd also

:38:56.:38:58.

potentially incites support among those who may be tempted

:38:59.:39:00.

to side with the so-called Islamic State on the other side

:39:01.:39:04.

I'm not going to pretend that Trump would have

:39:05.:39:06.

been my choice of candidate but of course, he was chosen

:39:07.:39:09.

as the candidate by the Reptblican party, then elected by the @merican

:39:10.:39:12.

Now, of course, the special relationship between Britain

:39:13.:39:20.

and the United States is extremely strong and so I think all of us have

:39:21.:39:24.

to hope that as president, he governs rather more senshbly

:39:25.:39:29.

than some people fear and that, as president, he behaves rather more

:39:30.:39:33.

in tune with the way he's spoken since the election,

:39:34.:39:35.

which has been much more conciliatory, much more unifying,

:39:36.:39:38.

rather than some of the divhsive and incendiary comments he lade

:39:39.:39:41.

Just thinking about that colmunity cohesion aspect, that's

:39:42.:39:48.

something of course, that the police experiences

:39:49.:39:49.

And that's something that is very high on my agenda,

:39:50.:39:55.

keeping our communities togdther and keeping people working together.

:39:56.:39:58.

The rhetoric that we're seehng generally has had

:39:59.:40:02.

an influence, I would have thought?

:40:03.:40:03.

Just after Brexit, there was a peak in hate crime and I hope th`t

:40:04.:40:10.

But I think what's interesthng about this already is that

:40:11.:40:18.

Yes, he got elected on really quite extreme views on building a wall

:40:19.:40:23.

between Mexico and America, views about putting Clinton

:40:24.:40:26.

rid of it. Within days, the ink is hardly dry on the ballot papers

:40:27.:40:31.

and he's already seriously rolling back from many of those polhcies.

:40:32.:40:36.

That, of course, will have `n impact on the electorate in Americ`.

:40:37.:40:43.

For the moment, thank you very much both indeed.

:40:44.:40:47.

They clocked up over a thousand years of Labour membership

:40:48.:40:50.

between them, only to be kicked out of the party.

:40:51.:40:52.

The purge of Militant followed years of bitter in-fighting in thd early

:40:53.:40:58.

'80s between the hard left and the so-called moderates.

:40:59.:41:05.

Among those shown the door was the former Coventry MP Dave Nellist.

:41:06.:41:08.

Now he's one of 75 expelled socialists applying

:41:09.:41:10.

Our political reporter Kathryn Stranczyszyn explains why.

:41:11.:41:14.

A long ago war of ideology, bitterly fought.

:41:15.:41:22.

The Militant is standing candidates against the Labour Party.

:41:23.:41:25.

I think they have a bloody cheek, anyone who's in the Militant,

:41:26.:41:28.

to think they can demand thd right to remain in our party.

:41:29.:41:31.

The Labour Party in the 1970s and 1980s was a battle ground

:41:32.:41:35.

between the left and the hard left, the party within a party,

:41:36.:41:40.

Militant, whose members werd denounced by Labour MPs at the time.

:41:41.:41:52.

Not the Workers' Revolution`ry Party, nor the militant Trots.

:41:53.:41:53.

Madam Chairman, the baying of the beast betrays its prdsence.

:41:54.:41:56.

Eventually, it reached a pahnful crescendo,

:41:57.:41:57.

with hundreds of Militant members kicked out.

:41:58.:42:00.

Enthusiasm's almost a criminal offence now in the party.

:42:01.:42:04.

We're not allowed to use thd word "strikes" any more.

:42:05.:42:06.

I think this is one of the meetings up

:42:07.:42:12.

And if you look at who two of the attendees

:42:13.:42:18.

are on the platform, one T Benn, one J Corbyn.

:42:19.:42:21.

75 former Militant members have signed a letter saying that the time

:42:22.:42:24.

is right for Jeremy Corbyn to let them back in.

:42:25.:42:32.

I felt it was impossible inside that New Labour to carry

:42:33.:42:35.

on the fight for socialism, so we fought for it outside.

:42:36.:42:39.

Dave Nellist was a Coventry MP for nine years.

:42:40.:42:45.

He's a name synonymous with the most radical side of Labour.

:42:46.:42:48.

Jeremy's re-election a few weeks ago shows that there is the possibility

:42:49.:42:52.

He's outnumbered nine to ond in Parliament and on councils.

:42:53.:42:59.

There's a lot of manoeuvres to try to get rid of him

:43:00.:43:03.

and I want to be part of the battle to support his

:43:04.:43:06.

Of course, this all comes at a time when the party is once

:43:07.:43:11.

The membership wants Jeremy Corbyn, the Parliamentary

:43:12.:43:16.

And with criticism of the t`ctics of the left-wing group Momentum

:43:17.:43:26.

that supports Mr Corbyn, some people say the idea

:43:27.:43:28.

of admitting some of these people back in is nothing

:43:29.:43:31.

But Dave Nellist says, far from being the ruin of the party,

:43:32.:43:34.

when it comes to voters he could be one of its saviours.

:43:35.:43:38.

If we do nothing but wait for the 2020 election,

:43:39.:43:40.

three quarters of all council services in our

:43:41.:43:43.

Youth clubs, libraries, children's centres.

:43:44.:43:45.

Adult education centres, park wardens, street cleaners.

:43:46.:43:47.

Labour says where members h`ve previously been banned,

:43:48.:43:56.

the decision on re-entry is one for the National Executive Commhttee.

:43:57.:43:59.

Dave Nellist is now chair of the Trade Unionist And Socialist

:44:00.:44:02.

Coalition, and says, if he's allowed back in,

:44:03.:44:03.

the group won't field any c`ndidates at next year's local elections.

:44:04.:44:10.

We're hoping that the Labour NEC, which meets on the 22nd

:44:11.:44:13.

If they don't find the time to do it then, I think we'll take our

:44:14.:44:17.

campaign to the ranks of thd Labour and trade union movement,

:44:18.:44:25.

with a national petition to help the NEC

:44:26.:44:27.

A threat or a promise from Dave Nellist ending that report

:44:28.:44:35.

Well, instrumental in Labour's purge of Militant three decades ago

:44:36.:44:40.

was a tight-knit Midlands-dominated caucus of MPs and union leaders -

:44:41.:44:42.

among them, John Spellar, now MP for Warley.

:44:43.:44:48.

Down the line to Westminster, I asked him how he thought the party

:44:49.:44:51.

These people, let's be clear, are dedicated Trotskyists.

:44:52.:45:01.

They have their own tightly knit revolutionary organisation.

:45:02.:45:03.

They only want to use the Labour Party, use its ftnds

:45:04.:45:06.

and try and divert young people into their cause.

:45:07.:45:08.

We'd be mad to let them back into the Labour Party.

:45:09.:45:21.

But isn't the reality that they in a way, are more in tune

:45:22.:45:25.

with the Labour Party as it is now, with these half a million

:45:26.:45:28.

They see you, really, as just a post-Blairite Parliamentary rump.

:45:29.:45:32.

Oh, this is complete rubbish and we know that from

:45:33.:45:35.

the Labour Parties right thd way across the Midlands.

:45:36.:45:37.

And they've seen these people before.

:45:38.:45:38.

They saw all the trouble that they caused in Coventrx.

:45:39.:45:41.

We became unelectable in thd 19 0s precisely because people wotld not

:45:42.:45:44.

allow a party that had people like that in it

:45:45.:45:46.

And even more recently, they have been running...

:45:47.:45:55.

They set up their own party, they've been running candid`tes

:45:56.:45:58.

against the Labour Party across the country.

:45:59.:46:06.

Even as late as this year's elections.

:46:07.:46:07.

So why would we want to be letting in people who are clearly hostile

:46:08.:46:11.

to the fundamental democrathc aims of the Labour Party?

:46:12.:46:13.

They've got their own revolutionary party.

:46:14.:46:23.

They can run in elections, they can get the derisory votes they want.

:46:24.:46:26.

They just want to use the L`bour Party.

:46:27.:46:28.

We will never be able to rebuild and provide a credible alternative

:46:29.:46:30.

to the Conservatives if we `llow these sort of people

:46:31.:46:33.

You clearly think that thesd applicants should be given short

:46:34.:46:36.

shrift but do you think Jeremy Corbyn will think thd same?

:46:37.:46:39.

Well, I think, actually, it's the national executive

:46:40.:46:41.

of the Labour Party and these issues about allowing revolutionarx groups

:46:42.:46:44.

in come up time and again in Labour's history.

:46:45.:46:57.

The Communist Party tried to infiltrate us,

:46:58.:47:01.

League, the international socialists, the Militant

:47:02.:47:05.

and now this new lot from the Socialist party.

:47:06.:47:07.

They don't want to help the Labour Party win with ordinary

:47:08.:47:13.

voters and every time we look as though we're getting close

:47:14.:47:15.

to them, that takes us further from power and further from doing

:47:16.:47:18.

the right thing for ordinarx voters in the Midlands and right

:47:19.:47:21.

John Spellar clearly thinks Dave Nellist and company should be

:47:22.:47:25.

left out of the Labour Partx, exactly where they are now.

:47:26.:47:28.

But the big difference, of course, is that then they were hard left

:47:29.:47:32.

insurrection whereas now, Jeremy Corbyn is in

:47:33.:47:34.

Well, these people, back in the 1980s, made

:47:35.:47:38.

And we were, and Margaret Thatcher reigned supreme.

:47:39.:47:49.

They then formed their own parties and they've stood in elections,

:47:50.:47:53.

both to local councils and in Parliament,

:47:54.:47:55.

So these people have lost the Labour Party elections,

:47:56.:47:58.

they've lost elections standing on their own platform.

:47:59.:48:00.

But the reality is, though, isn't it, that there

:48:01.:48:06.

between Jeremy Corbyn and Dave Nellist?

:48:07.:48:09.

There is a big role now for an anti-austerity socialist

:48:10.:48:13.

Labour Party to organise and help those people who feel that they re

:48:14.:48:16.

being left behind by the austerity agenda.

:48:17.:48:18.

I think, yes, the Labour Party needs to pick up that strong feelhng

:48:19.:48:22.

of dissent there is amongst people in the country and against this

:48:23.:48:25.

Conservative government and the things that are happening

:48:26.:48:29.

in terms of making people homeless and the difficulties we're having

:48:30.:48:32.

Yes, they want them addressdd, but believe me...

:48:33.:48:38.

Isn't socialism a more authdntic answer to all those things?

:48:39.:48:41.

But we're not going to find those answers with those people

:48:42.:48:44.

in the past and the present who failed to get the votes

:48:45.:48:47.

I know there is a certain alount of glee on the Tory side

:48:48.:48:51.

about these divisions within the Labour Party

:48:52.:48:53.

but Dominic Raab, one of your former ministers,

:48:54.:48:55.

during the Tory conference in Birmingham, said

:48:56.:48:57.

anybody on your side who underestimates Jeremy Corbyn

:48:58.:48:59.

does so at their peril, because he could tap into this

:49:00.:49:03.

sentiment at street level that we see all around us

:49:04.:49:05.

in the various elections th`t we've been talking about.

:49:06.:49:08.

Of course, there's a real d`nger in Jeremy Corbyn but I think just

:49:09.:49:16.

the fact that people like Dave Nellist, Peter Ta`ffe

:49:17.:49:18.

Derek Hatton, feel that the Labour Party is once again their home just

:49:19.:49:21.

underlines how far Jeremy Corbyn has taken the Labour Party away

:49:22.:49:24.

from the mainstream, where most of the public ard.

:49:25.:49:26.

But I saw a Momentum event in Birmingham where there

:49:27.:49:31.

were people who were teachers, there were people who had even been

:49:32.:49:34.

supporters of Margaret Thatcher in her time.

:49:35.:49:36.

And Labour is actually a mass movement as well as a polithcal

:49:37.:49:41.

Well, of course, my predecessor but one as MP in Dudley South,

:49:42.:49:47.

He was a militant in the early 980s himself, before he disowned Militant

:49:48.:49:54.

and moved into the mainstre`m of the Labour Party.

:49:55.:49:58.

Do the socialists have a case against moderates like you that

:49:59.:50:01.

you are undermining Jeremy Corbyn's leadership at every turn?

:50:02.:50:04.

Well, I'm not certainly unddrmining the leadership of the party.

:50:05.:50:07.

I've been in the party 53 ydars now and I've supported every single

:50:08.:50:10.

I think my concern is firstly that people who couldn't get elected

:50:11.:50:18.

are trying to get elected and they've failed themselvds but,

:50:19.:50:21.

also, if you look this year, I was only elected this year in May

:50:22.:50:24.

We must leave it there for the moment.

:50:25.:50:35.

Well, as the Chancellor puts the finishing touches

:50:36.:50:38.

to Wednesday's Autumn Statelent how is the economy shaping tp

:50:39.:50:41.

Well, our exporters and importers will differ on that one, of course.

:50:42.:50:54.

But for West Bromwich-based East End Foods,

:50:55.:51:08.

The weakness of the post-Brdxit pound has hit business here hard.

:51:09.:51:23.

The company imports foodstuffs and they estimate costs havd gone up

:51:24.:51:26.

by ?50,000 a week since the Leave vote.

:51:27.:51:28.

I think the toughest six months we have seen.

:51:29.:51:42.

East End Foods has been in business for nearly 50 years and this has

:51:43.:51:46.

At Ellenborough Park Hotel near Cheltenham, bookings are up.

:51:47.:51:51.

We've seen an influx of overseas guests, particularly US,

:51:52.:51:56.

because they can just see that, of the options available to them,

:51:57.:52:00.

the UK is really attractive, when their dollars go a lot further.

:52:01.:52:03.

The jobless total fell by 22,00 between July and September

:52:04.:52:09.

The pound may be sinking but, despite referendum warnings,

:52:10.:52:23.

And thinking first, Mike, about importers like East End Foods,

:52:24.:52:35.

they're trying not to pass on the extra costs that thex incur

:52:36.:52:38.

through the extra pound but it does raise questions.

:52:39.:52:45.

They are having to take a spueeze in order to do that,

:52:46.:52:49.

and it makes Theresa May's vision of a successful Brexit look

:52:50.:52:52.

No, I don't think that's true at all.

:52:53.:52:56.

Clearly, things are difficult for importers at the moment.

:52:57.:52:58.

I do think that the pound will return more towards trdnd

:52:59.:53:00.

levels because the underlying fundamentals of the

:53:01.:53:02.

We've seen in the report that the Black Country Chamber

:53:03.:53:08.

published this week, there was huge optimism amongst

:53:09.:53:13.

They're investing more, they're exporting more.

:53:14.:53:16.

The level of the pound is actually leading to really good condhtions

:53:17.:53:19.

for exporters, particularly in manufacturing.

:53:20.:53:23.

And the fall in unemployment and the increased, to record levels,

:53:24.:53:29.

But, within that, the bulk of the new jobs are going to people

:53:30.:53:34.

who weren't born in this cotntry and a large component

:53:35.:53:36.

When is your government going to actually

:53:37.:53:39.

face up to the benign effects of EU migration?

:53:40.:53:47.

Well, of course, Theresa Max has been clear that we want to trigger

:53:48.:53:50.

Article 50 in the spring to make a start on the process of ldaving

:53:51.:53:53.

the European Union and impldmenting the decision that voters took

:53:54.:53:56.

in June and, as part of that, we will need the transition`l

:53:57.:53:59.

measures that mean that where people are already in the country

:54:00.:54:01.

and working, that we have agreements with our European partners that

:54:02.:54:04.

obviously, we expect people to be able to say here but we also expect

:54:05.:54:07.

British nationals living and working overseas

:54:08.:54:08.

to be able to remain, so I think that's

:54:09.:54:11.

But when we were told beford the referendum that there

:54:12.:54:21.

would be economic apocalypsd if people voted to leave,

:54:22.:54:28.

of course GDP was supposed to be negative, unemployment

:54:29.:54:30.

Instead, we've got really strong GDP growth, we got unemployment falling.

:54:31.:54:37.

Mike's just mentioned the Black Country Chamber.

:54:38.:54:39.

The West Midlands economic Forum talks about very optimistic growth

:54:40.:54:43.

So the Government seems to be getting something right

:54:44.:54:50.

I think the problem here is, we don't know a lot of the `nswers

:54:51.:54:54.

and some of Mike's responses to your questions, he clearly

:54:55.:54:56.

Now, we've got a temporary situation where the pound is falling.

:54:57.:55:00.

Unemployment halved in five years in Birmingham.

:55:01.:55:05.

The cost of food going up, the cost of fuel going up.

:55:06.:55:09.

But then, when we find oursdlves outside of the European Union,

:55:10.:55:17.

we will then have to have 27 different trade deals with different

:55:18.:55:22.

countries and there may be tariffs but against our exporters now,

:55:23.:55:28.

so Brexit hasn't happened ydt, so we can't actually say

:55:29.:55:31.

what the effect of it is going to be.

:55:32.:55:43.

-- tariffs put against some of our exporters.

:55:44.:55:45.

We can only see some of the effects of it going to happen.

:55:46.:55:48.

I think in two years' time, if we get a hard Brexit,

:55:49.:55:51.

which is where we seem to bd heading, then this could have a huge

:55:52.:55:55.

impact on exporters and we could see more expensive food and the basic

:55:56.:55:58.

And yet surveys suggest that most voters actually want the kind

:55:59.:56:02.

of immigration policies that only a hard Brexit

:56:03.:56:04.

People voted to take back control in June and I think that's

:56:05.:56:08.

Now, I'm afraid I don't think David quite understands how

:56:09.:56:11.

the European Union works when he says we'd need 27

:56:12.:56:14.

We'd have one trade deal with the remainder

:56:15.:56:18.

Just as we don't have separate trade deals

:56:19.:56:20.

with all of the countries at the moment, we wouldn't

:56:21.:56:23.

We'd have one with the European Union.

:56:24.:56:26.

We could go on but, frankly, at this stage we can't.

:56:27.:56:31.

For the moment, thank you both very much indeed.

:56:32.:56:33.

So, what other political developments have been making

:56:34.:56:35.

Our round-up in 60 seconds is brought to us today

:56:36.:56:39.

in Worcestershire joined a nationwide protest over claims

:56:40.:56:43.

there's been a surge in violence among inmates.

:56:44.:56:48.

Dudley Council has joined forces with the Environment Agency

:56:49.:56:51.

after a huge rubbish heap appeared near the town centre.

:56:52.:56:54.

It's just a few miles away from the site of another motntain

:56:55.:56:57.

of waste, which took years to clear, in Brierley Hill.

:56:58.:57:01.

Nuneaton-born left-wing fill director Ken Loach marked 50 years

:57:02.:57:04.

since Cathy Come Home with an appearance on Midlands Today

:57:05.:57:08.

So does he think homelessness is less of a problem now?

:57:09.:57:14.

I think everyone agrees thex're worse, because the markets have been

:57:15.:57:17.

To build houses and to solve the problem.

:57:18.:57:20.

Once lauded by David Cameron and Michael Gove,

:57:21.:57:26.

Birmingham's Perry Beeches @cademy Trust in Birmingham has had another

:57:27.:57:28.

one of its schools rated as inadequate by inpectors.

:57:29.:57:33.

And West Midlands Police will begin a recruitment drive this wedk.

:57:34.:57:36.

They are looking to take on an extra 800 new officers.

:57:37.:57:44.

Yes, and that is part and p`rcel of David Jamieson's policing plan,

:57:45.:57:49.

due out on Wednesday, and comes off the back of a survey

:57:50.:57:51.

by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary.

:57:52.:57:54.

Over a third of 26,000 people across England hadn't seen ` bobby

:57:55.:57:58.

Is that what this is really all about?

:57:59.:58:06.

Because, actually, there ard plenty of demand at the moment,

:58:07.:58:09.

given the prevalence of cybdr crime, phishing e-mails and all thd rest

:58:10.:58:12.

of it, for more bobbies on the internet, not the be`ch.

:58:13.:58:15.

Well, firstly, the plan is about setting out the strategic

:58:16.:58:19.

things that people want in the area, and those are the things I promised

:58:20.:58:23.

in my manifesto in May and now I'm putting them into the plan.

:58:24.:58:26.

And that's for the Chief Constable now to undertake.

:58:27.:58:28.

We are facing, firstly, huge cuts in our budget.

:58:29.:58:31.

We've lost a quarter of our budget under Mike's government

:58:32.:58:33.

What I'm saying is, we do nded to get the bobbies on the bdat.

:58:34.:58:39.

We're undertaking a big recruitment campaign.

:58:40.:58:42.

But also you quite rightly point out some of the crimes that we're

:58:43.:58:45.

dealing with are entirely dhfferent and need a different

:58:46.:58:48.

approach to policing than we had in the past.

:58:49.:58:53.

Briefly, David, actually, is quite entitled to give

:58:54.:58:55.

Because it turns out his is, as he says, one of the two

:58:56.:59:01.

least expensive Police and Crime Commissioner

:59:02.:59:04.

offices in the country, whereas Conservative Warwickshire,

:59:05.:59:06.

West Mercia, Staffordshire `re among the most expensive offices

:59:07.:59:08.

As David knows, I'm a big stpporter of West Midlands Police.

:59:09.:59:13.

My dad was an West Midlands Policeman for nearly

:59:14.:59:15.

had the meetings with ministers in the Treasury and the Homd Office

:59:16.:59:20.

and elsewhere to argue the case for the West Midlands to get

:59:21.:59:22.

Hopefully, when we can get that new funding formula, it will help.

:59:23.:59:27.

My thanks to Commissioner D`vid Jamieson and Mike Wood.

:59:28.:59:32.

And there's more on the futtre of the police service

:59:33.:59:35.

West Mercia's new Chief Constable Anthony Banham has been described

:59:36.:59:39.

We're about to find out what exactly that means if, indeed,

:59:40.:59:45.

He'll be in BBC Radio Shropshire's hot seat during Jim Hawkins'

:59:46.:59:49.

programme from ten o'clock on Tuesday.

:59:50.:59:50.

This, though, is where we all rejoin Andrew Neil.

:59:51.:59:55.

in four years. It is subject we should spend more time on. Back to

:59:56.:59:58.

you. What will the Chancellor have to say

:59:59.:00:07.

in his first big economic statement? What impact will the forecasters say

:00:08.:00:12.

Brexit will have on the economy And who will face the Front

:00:13.:00:14.

National's Marine Le Pen in Well, the Shadow Chancellor

:00:15.:00:17.

and the Chancellor have both been touring the television

:00:18.:00:32.

studios this morning. Let's be clear, a lot of this

:00:33.:00:33.

is going to be gimmicks and press As I've said, in the

:00:34.:00:40.

pipeline, we've only seen one in five delivered

:00:41.:00:43.

to construction, that's all. So a lot of this will be a repeat

:00:44.:00:46.

of what I'm not going to reveal

:00:47.:00:49.

what I'm going to say on We don't have unlimited

:00:50.:00:52.

capacity, as one might imagine from listening

:00:53.:00:57.

to John McDonnell, to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds more

:00:58.:01:00.

for discretionary spending. That simply doesn't

:01:01.:01:05.

exist if we're going to retain this country's hard-won

:01:06.:01:08.

credibility in the financial markets if we are going to remain

:01:09.:01:11.

an attractive place for business to We didn't learn very much, Helen,

:01:12.:01:27.

but the papers were briefed this morning that there will be another

:01:28.:01:30.

?1.3 billion for roads and things like that. ?1.3 billion is 0.08 of

:01:31.:01:42.

our GDP. Not exactly an infrastructure investment programme,

:01:43.:01:45.

is it? Yellow like I have to say, it was not thrilling to read the

:01:46.:01:54.

details. -- I have to say... It is the first big financial statement

:01:55.:01:57.

that is going to come and I think there will be a big row about the

:01:58.:02:01.

OBE are forecast because they cannot set out a range, they have to commit

:02:02.:02:06.

to one forecast. Everything they do is incredibly political. DOB are is

:02:07.:02:16.

on a hiding to nothing. -- DOB are -- the Office for Budget

:02:17.:02:23.

Responsibility. I don't know how they will square the circle. It is

:02:24.:02:28.

an interesting week. It is all about the economy and public finances and

:02:29.:02:30.

we don't have to talk about Brexit until next Sunday, but no, I have a

:02:31.:02:35.

terrible feeling that by the end of Wednesday afternoon we will be

:02:36.:02:45.

screaming and shouting about how Brexit is going to be for the

:02:46.:02:48.

economy. Just imagine the Treasury comes out with his forecast that it

:02:49.:02:52.

is going to collapse growth and collapsed Treasury takings, people

:02:53.:03:01.

will be apoplectic. Until now, the economy has continued to grow

:03:02.:03:07.

strongly. Pretty well. They cannot say, we have noticed it slowing down

:03:08.:03:10.

and that will continue. They have to take a punt if they think it will

:03:11.:03:15.

slow down. It affects the Chancellor's figures, because the

:03:16.:03:18.

more they say it is slowing down, and I have seen that it will go from

:03:19.:03:24.

2% down to 1.4%, the more the Chancellor's deficit rises even

:03:25.:03:28.

without any more tax cuts and spending. Absolutely. I think Tom is

:03:29.:03:33.

right. What we will see this week is a continuation of the debate we have

:03:34.:03:38.

been having all along. If the Office for Budget Responsibility has

:03:39.:03:40.

negative and gloomy predictions there will be howls of agony, and

:03:41.:03:50.

rightly howls of frustration from Brexiteers who will say that all the

:03:51.:03:53.

dire predictions from before the referendum have not come to pass and

:03:54.:03:57.

now you are talking things down in a way that becomes a self-fulfilling

:03:58.:04:04.

prophecy. The money for roads, you were dismissive about it, but every

:04:05.:04:10.

little helps. I don't dismiss it, I say it doesn't amount to a fiscal

:04:11.:04:14.

stimulus in macro economic terms. I'm sure if you are on that road, it

:04:15.:04:23.

will be useful. They are going to build a super highway between Oxford

:04:24.:04:30.

and Cambridge. I would like to see them go out to Japan and learn how

:04:31.:04:38.

to fill a hole in two days. I would suggest the road from Oxford to

:04:39.:04:41.

Cambridge is not for the just managing classes, even though it

:04:42.:04:45.

goes through Milton Keynes, and that simply freezing due freezing fuel

:04:46.:04:56.

duty isn't going to hack it, either. These just about managing people are

:04:57.:05:01.

potentially quite a big band. With income tax rises, it means anything

:05:02.:05:04.

you do to help them is incredibly expensive. The universal credit

:05:05.:05:08.

freeze is an interesting example of that. Philip Hammond sounded

:05:09.:05:14.

ambivalent about it after pre-briefings that it might not the

:05:15.:05:22.

cuts might not go ahead. There are people who are in work but because

:05:23.:05:25.

they are low paid don't have the number of hours, they require

:05:26.:05:32.

welfare benefits to top up their pay, and these welfare benefits as

:05:33.:05:36.

it stands, are frozen until 202 , and yet inflation is now starting to

:05:37.:05:40.

rise. That's a problem for the just managing people. Correct. It is

:05:41.:05:46.

worse than that, because we are talking about April 2017 when tax

:05:47.:05:55.

credits become universal credits, so the squeeze will be greater. We will

:05:56.:06:00.

get a small highway between a couple of university towns, but if he has

:06:01.:06:05.

any money left to spend at all, it will be on some pretty seismic

:06:06.:06:12.

jazzman for the just about managing people. I am so glad we're not

:06:13.:06:17.

calling them Jams on this programme, because it is a patronising tone.

:06:18.:06:23.

What the Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor did not confront is that

:06:24.:06:32.

Mr Trump's election is a watershed in terms of being able to borrow

:06:33.:06:36.

cheaply. The Federal Reserve is about to start raising rates. The

:06:37.:06:39.

days of cheap borrowing for governments could be coming to an

:06:40.:06:44.

end. You can feel a bit sorry for labour here because after having had

:06:45.:06:48.

six years of being told that we need a surplus and these things are

:06:49.:06:51.

important, we can't deny the deficit, we have switched now and

:06:52.:06:55.

the first thing that Philip Hammond did was to scrap George Osborne s

:06:56.:07:02.

borrowing targets. He has given himself more wriggle room than

:07:03.:07:05.

George Osborne had. He has and it will cost them more. Debt servicing

:07:06.:07:13.

will now rise as a cost. Where is the next political earthquake going

:07:14.:07:14.

to happen? It could be Italy, or the French

:07:15.:07:21.

elections coming up next spring Now, who will face the Front

:07:22.:07:28.

National's Marine Le Pen in next year's French Presidential

:07:29.:07:30.

elections? Well, France's centre-right

:07:31.:07:31.

part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate

:07:32.:07:33.

in the first round of Well, France's centre-right

:07:34.:07:35.

part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate

:07:36.:07:38.

in the first round of Let's speak to our correspondent

:07:39.:07:41.

in Paris, Hugh Schofield. Welcome to the programme. Three main

:07:42.:07:54.

candidates, the former -- two former prime ministers and Nicolas Sarkozy,

:07:55.:08:00.

the former president. It is not clear who the front runner is.

:08:01.:08:04.

Robbins it is quite an exciting race, because four weeks it did look

:08:05.:08:15.

as if it was going to be Juppe. It is a two round race. Two go through

:08:16.:08:22.

and the idea is that they rally all the support together. It looked like

:08:23.:08:26.

the first round would be dominated by Juppe and Nicolas Sarkozy, and

:08:27.:08:30.

there was a clear binary combination there, because Sarkozy was looking

:08:31.:08:39.

for squeamish far right voters. In other words, veering clearly to the

:08:40.:08:42.

right and far right on immigration and identity issues. And Juppe is

:08:43.:08:48.

the opposite, saying we had to appeal to the centre. That was what

:08:49.:08:53.

it looked like. But the third candidate has made this really quite

:08:54.:08:57.

staggering surge in the last few days. There was a debate on Thursday

:08:58.:09:02.

and he was deemed to have won it on television. He is coming up

:09:03.:09:07.

strongly, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go through

:09:08.:09:10.

which would be interesting from a British perspective, because if the

:09:11.:09:16.

becomes president, he will be the first president with a British wife.

:09:17.:09:20.

His wife Penelope is Welsh. We will have to leave it there. I

:09:21.:09:28.

would suggest that the reason it is fascinating is that whoever wins

:09:29.:09:31.

this primary for the centre-right party is likely to be the next

:09:32.:09:35.

president, and who the next president is will be very important

:09:36.:09:39.

for Britain in these Brexit negotiations. Nothing will really

:09:40.:09:43.

happen until it is determined. Then after the German elections in

:09:44.:09:49.

October. I would add one more constituent part. The most important

:09:50.:09:53.

thing about the race is who can stop Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen will

:09:54.:10:00.

almost be one of the ones in the run-off. The Socialists don't expect

:10:01.:10:09.

much. Francois Hollande is done There is too much of a cliff to

:10:10.:10:16.

climb. Which one of these three centre-right candidates can stop

:10:17.:10:21.

Marine Le Pen? We have had Brexit and Trump, but we could also have

:10:22.:10:26.

Marine Le Pen. If it is Sarkozy it is the battle of the right. In some

:10:27.:10:33.

areas, he has moved to the right of marine Le Pen. I suppose he feels he

:10:34.:10:40.

has do in order to take the wind out of our sails. You wonder if she

:10:41.:10:43.

could succeed later on if she does not this time. Talking to French

:10:44.:10:47.

analysts last night, there was suggesting that she could not do it

:10:48.:10:51.

this time but could win the next time. All the events in France over

:10:52.:10:56.

the last year seemed to provide the most propitious circumstances for

:10:57.:10:59.

her to do well, and particularly if you throw in Trump and Brexit.

:11:00.:11:05.

Suppose it is Mr Sarkozy, and he goes through and wins the Republican

:11:06.:11:10.

nomination, and he and Marine Le Pen go through to the second round, that

:11:11.:11:17.

would mean, think about it, is that a lot of French socialist voters and

:11:18.:11:21.

those on the father left would have to grit their teeth and vote for

:11:22.:11:29.

Nicolas Sarkozy. They might not do it. We might see what we saw in

:11:30.:11:33.

America, where lots of potential Clinton voters did not turn out You

:11:34.:11:45.

got politicians like Melanchon on the far left saying there are

:11:46.:11:48.

foreign workers taking bread out of French workers' mounts. We sometimes

:11:49.:11:55.

forget, because we tend to emphasise the National of the National front,

:11:56.:12:01.

but actually, there are economic policy is quite Bennite. Sarkozy is

:12:02.:12:13.

the Hillary Clinton of the French elections. He is Mr establishment.

:12:14.:12:24.

Juppe and the other third candidate are the same. You have to

:12:25.:12:29.

re-establish candidates running against an antiestablishment

:12:30.:12:32.

candidate. There are populist economic policies from the National

:12:33.:12:37.

front. The other three want to raise the retirement age and cut back on

:12:38.:12:39.

the 35 hour week, which are not classic electoral appeals. Mr Juppe

:12:40.:12:48.

used to be the Mayor of Bordeaux. And we are the biggest importers of

:12:49.:12:52.

claret, so that could have an effect. In 2002, it was Jack Shear

:12:53.:13:00.

against John Marine Le Pen, and the socialist campaign slogan was, vote

:13:01.:13:08.

for the Crook, not the fascist. We will see what they come up with this

:13:09.:13:09.

time. The Daily Politics is back at noon

:13:10.:13:12.

tomorrow on BBC Two, where on Wednesday I will have full

:13:13.:13:16.

coverage of the Chancellor's Autumn But remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:17.:13:22.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:23.:13:31.

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