18/12/2016 Sunday Politics West Midlands


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:40.:00:41.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:42.:00:43.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:44.:00:45.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:46.:00:49.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:50.:00:52.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:53.:00:56.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:57.:00:59.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:01:00.:01:05.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:06.:01:07.

We are leaving the EU but after one year of ringing the changes,

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do we have a golden future in Britain's Brexit capital?

:01:17.:01:27.

And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer

:01:28.:01:31.

and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,

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They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.

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First this morning, some say they will fight

:01:43.:01:48.

for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those

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who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British

:01:53.:01:55.

people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -

:01:56.:01:58.

The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have

:01:59.:02:01.

tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.

:02:02.:02:03.

The original resolution called on the European Parliament

:02:04.:02:06.

to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens

:02:07.:02:09.

of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".

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He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish

:02:25.:02:30.

must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%

:02:31.:02:33.

The amendments were proposed in October,

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but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels

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Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.

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The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.

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Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed

:02:53.:02:55.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try

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and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was

:03:05.:03:10.

simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months

:03:11.:03:13.

ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different

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newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort

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to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to

:03:26.:03:30.

rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You

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would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?

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I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory

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referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a

:03:47.:03:52.

questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,

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it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking

:03:56.:03:59.

the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a

:04:00.:04:03.

very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who

:04:04.:04:08.

said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save

:04:09.:04:12.

money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and

:04:13.:04:15.

our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But

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your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is

:04:33.:04:35.

to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would

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respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to

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be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain

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money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government

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said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need

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to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the

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single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options

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should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will

:05:03.:05:08.

be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more

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illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a

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report about future treaty amendments down the road for years

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to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side

:05:27.:05:35.

reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will

:05:36.:05:40.

you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the

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text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if

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the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you

:05:56.:05:59.

mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,

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was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of

:06:07.:06:10.

the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European

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Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of

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action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and

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disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to

:06:27.:06:31.

think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you

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might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be

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clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European

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Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am

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acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating

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things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out

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to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are

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going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the

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shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,

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in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is

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implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about

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whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because

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that has to take account of the future framework of relationships

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with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That

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means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be

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outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very

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damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the

:07:51.:07:55.

rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the

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customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give

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us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is

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not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the

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results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see

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that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the

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divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget

:08:19.:08:23.

for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single

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market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will

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know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be

:08:33.:08:36.

damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a

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minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider

:08:43.:08:46.

the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to

:08:47.:08:50.

leave it there but thank you for joining us.

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Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what

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happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview

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illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach

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taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one

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breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action

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subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are

:09:21.:09:24.

sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to

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happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists

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on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public

:09:35.:09:39.

opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together

:09:40.:09:46.

to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take

:09:47.:09:53.

moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every

:09:54.:09:57.

single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether

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it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not

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think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in

:10:12.:10:17.

the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to

:10:18.:10:21.

question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these

:10:22.:10:25.

things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he

:10:26.:10:29.

wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you

:10:30.:10:33.

can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But

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the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad

:10:40.:10:43.

deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is

:10:44.:10:50.

implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we

:10:51.:10:54.

are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a

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minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going

:10:59.:11:03.

to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,

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six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

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Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

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or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

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2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

:11:22.:11:28.

May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

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long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:05.:12:08.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

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setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

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all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

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is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

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customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

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cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

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member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

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make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

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union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

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binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

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suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

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do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

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is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

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opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

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Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

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PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

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Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:31.:13:37.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:38.:13:44.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

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proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:50.:13:54.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:55.:14:02.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

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but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

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deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

:14:10.:14:13.

for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

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Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:19.:14:22.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:23.:14:28.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:29.:14:36.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:37.:14:40.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

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we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

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but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

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at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

:14:53.:14:56.

happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

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think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

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becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

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are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

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country. So, we've had a warning this week

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that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:21.:15:24.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:25.:15:26.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:27.:15:28.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:29.:15:30.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:31.:15:33.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

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for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

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Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:53.:15:54.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:55.:15:56.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:57.:16:05.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

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but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

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we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:10.:16:15.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

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the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

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Australia approached the British Government

:16:24.:16:29.

with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

:16:30.:16:32.

to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

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governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

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ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:42.:16:44.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:45.:16:56.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:57.:17:01.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:02.:17:07.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:08.:17:13.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:14.:17:16.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:17.:17:23.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:24.:17:36.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:37.:17:40.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:41.:17:46.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:47.:17:49.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:50.:17:54.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:55.:17:58.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:17:59.:18:02.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:03.:18:06.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:07.:18:20.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:21.:18:22.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:23.:18:25.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:26.:18:27.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:28.:18:29.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:30.:18:41.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:42.:18:44.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:45.:18:55.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:56.:19:24.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:25.:19:28.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:29.:19:34.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:35.:19:39.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:40.:19:44.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:45.:19:49.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:50.:19:55.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:56.:20:00.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:01.:20:04.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:05.:20:07.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:08.:20:13.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:14.:20:19.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:20.:20:23.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:24.:20:30.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:31.:20:35.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:36.:20:39.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:40.:20:45.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:46.:20:49.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:50.:20:54.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:55.:20:59.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:21:00.:21:04.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:05.:21:09.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:10.:21:14.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:15.:21:19.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:20.:21:25.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:26.:21:28.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:29.:21:33.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:34.:21:37.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:38.:21:43.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:44.:21:45.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:46.:21:51.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:52.:21:57.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:58.:22:02.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:03.:22:06.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:07.:22:10.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:11.:22:16.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:17.:22:20.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:21.:22:25.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:26.:22:30.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:31.:22:33.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:34.:22:38.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:39.:22:43.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:44.:22:47.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:48.:22:54.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:55.:22:59.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:23:00.:23:04.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:05.:23:07.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:08.:23:13.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:14.:23:16.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:17.:23:24.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:25.:23:27.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:28.:23:31.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:32.:23:37.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:38.:23:42.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:43.:23:45.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:46.:23:52.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:53.:23:57.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:58.:24:01.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:02.:24:10.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:11.:24:13.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:14.:24:20.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:21.:24:24.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:25.:24:29.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:30.:24:33.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:34.:24:38.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:39.:24:45.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:46.:24:49.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:50.:24:55.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:56.:24:59.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:25:00.:25:04.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:05.:25:09.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:10.:25:12.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:13.:25:19.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:20.:25:22.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:23.:25:27.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:28.:25:32.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:33.:25:35.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:36.:25:37.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:38.:25:39.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:40.:25:42.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:43.:25:44.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:45.:25:58.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:25:59.:26:04.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:05.:26:10.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:11.:26:12.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:13.:26:16.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:17.:26:24.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:25.:26:28.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:29.:26:31.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:32.:26:33.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:34.:26:38.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:39.:26:41.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:42.:26:43.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:44.:26:48.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:49.:26:53.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:54.:26:57.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:58.:27:01.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:02.:27:04.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:05.:27:06.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:07.:27:08.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:09.:27:14.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:15.:27:20.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:21.:27:25.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:26.:27:30.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:31.:27:37.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:38.:27:42.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:43.:27:50.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:51.:27:54.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:55.:27:58.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:27:59.:28:02.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:03.:28:06.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:07.:28:10.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:11.:28:16.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:17.:28:21.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:22.:28:26.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:27.:28:30.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:31.:28:33.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:34.:28:39.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:40.:28:42.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:43.:28:47.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:48.:28:52.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:53.:29:00.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:01.:29:02.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:03.:29:06.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:07.:29:10.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:11.:29:15.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:16.:29:17.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:18.:29:23.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:24.:29:25.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:26.:29:28.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:29.:29:34.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:35.:29:36.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:37.:29:39.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:40.:29:41.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:42.:29:46.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:47.:29:49.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:50.:29:51.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:52.:29:55.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:56.:30:00.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:01.:30:02.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:03.:30:05.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:06.:30:09.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:10.:30:19.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:20.:30:38.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:39.:30:42.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:43.:30:52.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:53.:30:57.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:58.:31:01.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:02.:31:06.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:07.:31:10.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:11.:31:14.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:15.:31:24.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:25.:31:30.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:31.:31:35.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:36.:31:40.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:41.:31:47.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:48.:31:54.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:55.:32:03.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:04.:32:09.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:10.:32:13.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:14.:32:22.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:23.:32:27.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:28.:32:31.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:32.:32:36.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:37.:32:39.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:40.:32:43.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:44.:32:49.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:50.:32:52.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:53.:32:56.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:57.:33:02.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:03.:33:06.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:07.:33:12.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:13.:33:16.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:17.:33:20.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:21.:33:25.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:26.:33:29.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:30.:33:37.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:38.:33:46.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:47.:33:51.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:52.:33:56.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:57.:34:00.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:01.:34:04.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:05.:34:07.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:08.:34:11.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:12.:34:19.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:20.:34:25.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:26.:34:31.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:32.:34:36.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:37.:34:42.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:43.:34:51.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:52.:34:55.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:56.:34:59.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:35:00.:35:03.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:04.:35:09.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:10.:35:19.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:20.:35:22.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:23.:35:24.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:25.:35:33.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:34.:35:42.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:43.:35:49.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:50.:35:59.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:36:00.:36:04.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:05.:36:08.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:09.:36:13.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:14.:36:17.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:18.:36:22.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:23.:36:27.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:28.:36:34.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:35.:36:40.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:41.:36:45.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:46.:36:49.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:50.:36:57.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:58.:36:59.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:37:00.:37:03.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:04.:37:09.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:10.:37:15.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:16.:37:19.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:20.:37:23.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:24.:37:27.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:28.:37:31.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:32.:37:36.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:37.:37:40.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:41.:37:43.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:44.:37:49.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:50.:37:52.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:53.:37:57.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:58.:38:01.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:02.:38:07.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:08.:38:12.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:13.:38:16.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:17.:38:21.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:22.:38:26.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:27.:38:31.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:32.:38:36.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:37.:38:39.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:40.:38:45.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:46.:38:49.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:50.:38:55.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:56.:38:59.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:39:00.:39:01.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:02.:39:03.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:04.:39:06.

Welcome to the Sunday politics in the Midlands -

:39:07.:39:20.

More people voted to leave the EU here than

:39:21.:39:24.

Six months on from that defining moment which

:39:25.:39:28.

changed everything, we will ask the remainers

:39:29.:39:30.

and the leavers what do they think of the show so far?

:39:31.:39:33.

Joining us here today are two MPs from opposing

:39:34.:39:35.

Shabana Mahmood Labour MP for Birmingham Ladywood.

:39:36.:39:48.

She campaigned for a remain vote in June.

:39:49.:39:50.

Whereas Sir Bill Cash Conservative MP for storm has devoted some of his

:39:51.:39:54.

best years to life and some of the worst

:39:55.:39:57.

as well to achieving that

:39:58.:39:58.

Later on, the daunting catalogue of structural challenges

:39:59.:40:07.

facing our part of the country whoever is eventually

:40:08.:40:09.

We begin with Thursday's much anticipated announcement by the

:40:10.:40:13.

Communities Secretary and Broomsgrove MP Sajid Javad.

:40:14.:40:17.

His aim to plug the funding gap in social care, reduce bed blocking

:40:18.:40:21.

in our hard-pressed hospitals, and ease the strain

:40:22.:40:23.

The social care precept they can charge on top of council tax rises

:40:24.:40:37.

from 2% to up to 3% for the next two years, but the year after that it

:40:38.:40:41.

The leader of Britain's largest local authority isn't impressed.

:40:42.:40:44.

They are expecting poor people in Birmingham

:40:45.:41:00.

They are expecting poor people in Birmingham to put their hands

:41:01.:41:02.

in their pockets to pay for the care for elderly people,

:41:03.:41:05.

There is an elderly care crisis across this

:41:06.:41:11.

country and they are going to have to address that and I'm afraid this

:41:12.:41:15.

is just a sticking plaster where there should be major surgery.

:41:16.:41:18.

As a Birmingham MP yourself, isn't the weakness in his argument,

:41:19.:41:21.

that it cannot all be Theresa May's fault because if there

:41:22.:41:24.

it is the work of successive governments over many

:41:25.:41:27.

I think that social care as an issue has been reaching crisis level

:41:28.:41:33.

I think successive governments have failed to grasp the

:41:34.:41:37.

I think now it is getting to very serious levels.

:41:38.:41:40.

I think this is a sticking plaster solution.

:41:41.:41:43.

A national crisis needs a national response

:41:44.:41:44.

to step in with a proper funding settlement.

:41:45.:41:49.

Also open up a public debate about what our

:41:50.:41:51.

expectations of social care are

:41:52.:41:53.

and build a public arguement about those expectations

:41:54.:41:55.

Councillor Clancy is not the only councillor who feels that...

:41:56.:42:05.

Council leader in fact, that feels the money is not enough.

:42:06.:42:08.

The Tory leader of Warwickshire agrees that it is nowhere

:42:09.:42:10.

near the shortfall that needs to be met.

:42:11.:42:12.

I acknowledge that this has been going on for a long time.

:42:13.:42:15.

We are putting something in the order of ?7 billion

:42:16.:42:23.

The accusation that it is going to hit those who are worst off

:42:24.:42:28.

actually there is an adjustment in the formula to ensure those who have

:42:29.:42:37.

the lowest council tax base will be able to get preferential treatment.

:42:38.:42:41.

For practical purposes, although I entirely agree

:42:42.:42:43.

we have a very serious issue on our hands, it is over

:42:44.:42:46.

a long period of time and the

:42:47.:42:48.

better care fund is going to be adjusted by a formula.

:42:49.:42:54.

If we look at that pattern over the next three

:42:55.:42:56.

years, the precept dries up on that schedule set out

:42:57.:43:02.

the very year before a general election.

:43:03.:43:05.

That is why it is being described as a

:43:06.:43:16.

7 billion, or the better care fund, nobody can pretend that

:43:17.:43:20.

helpful, no one can pretend it is going

:43:21.:43:23.

to speak to the scale of the

:43:24.:43:25.

It will be part of any manifesto commitment continuing forward.

:43:26.:43:32.

We can only lookforward to a period of time

:43:33.:43:36.

After that, I am sure it will be continued.

:43:37.:43:41.

So to our main talking point this week.

:43:42.:43:46.

As so often during this year of shocks and upheavals, Brexit.

:43:47.:43:49.

That gleaming, blood-red Vote Leave battle bus

:43:50.:43:57.

Gordon Brown at Warwick University pleading to remain not

:43:58.:44:08.

in a United States of Europe but in a United Europe of States.

:44:09.:44:11.

Our reporter finds that Brexit is beginning to look a lot

:44:12.:44:14.

The fate of Britain's membership of the single

:44:15.:44:24.

One European market that's here to stay

:44:25.:44:30.

In June's referendum, the vote to leave

:44:31.:44:34.

the European Union was stronger here in the West Midlands

:44:35.:44:36.

than anywhere else in the UK.

:44:37.:44:38.

Trade and tourism are alive and well here but are the public

:44:39.:44:44.

I think it's boosted it, to be quite honest.

:44:45.:44:48.

I think it was a lot of fuss about nothing.

:44:49.:44:53.

We are still in the Euro at the moment until we come out.

:44:54.:44:56.

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

:44:57.:44:58.

We don't know what is going to happen in the future, so let's

:44:59.:45:01.

It is going to affect young people looking for work.

:45:02.:45:05.

I am looking for work now and it's so hard.

:45:06.:45:07.

Headquartered in Stratford-upon-Avon,

:45:08.:45:09.

the Rigby Group is an international, conglomerate with

:45:10.:45:11.

interests in technology, airports and hotels.

:45:12.:45:12.

It has an annual turnover of over ?2 million per year and employs

:45:13.:45:16.

One of Britain's richest men, Sir Peter Rigby, was a darling

:45:17.:45:20.

Does he think Project Fear has come to past?

:45:21.:45:25.

The views and warning that people wanted to remain have come to pass.

:45:26.:45:35.

The fall in the value of the pound, the inflation that is being

:45:36.:45:39.

Importantly, this lack of understanding of what the

:45:40.:45:45.

alternative is to being party of Europe.

:45:46.:45:55.

Has it been an economic Armageddon as some predicted?

:45:56.:46:04.

It hasn't been Armageddon but it hasn't carried on as usual either.

:46:05.:46:07.

Business has been affected by Brexit.

:46:08.:46:08.

This notion that things are just carrying on is a false notion.

:46:09.:46:12.

For him, is leaving the single market

:46:13.:46:14.

To say it would not be because it is at

:46:15.:46:22.

the end of the day our biggest single export opportunity.

:46:23.:46:25.

In business, one man's loss is another man's game.

:46:26.:46:27.

A gold rush is under way at Daniel The Jewellers in Nuneaton.

:46:28.:46:30.

Thanks to a fall in the pound, the price of gold measured

:46:31.:46:33.

Its owner never doubted that Brexit would be anything but a success.

:46:34.:46:39.

With plans to expand, they are hiring.

:46:40.:46:41.

Certainly with the more expensive items, gold

:46:42.:46:44.

Expensive watches, certainly the Rolexes.

:46:45.:46:53.

With the question of how the UK starts the process of leaving the EU

:46:54.:47:00.

stuck in the Superme Court until the new year, it

:47:01.:47:03.

appears that for now anyway the debate about what type of Brexit

:47:04.:47:06.

The swings and roundabouts of the Brexit debate.

:47:07.:47:14.

We are also joined by one of our region's three Ukip

:47:15.:47:18.

Recently promoted to defence spokesman by the party's new leader.

:47:19.:47:21.

Bill is also a councillor in Dudley.

:47:22.:47:24.

What would you say to Peter Rigby who

:47:25.:47:28.

points out the pound is down, inflation up.

:47:29.:47:33.

It is not Armageddon but not business as usual, as far as

:47:34.:47:36.

The outrageous antics of some of these moaners,

:47:37.:47:48.

All this continuation of Project Fear, we have not

:47:49.:47:52.

had the chance to enjoy the

:47:53.:47:53.

benefits of being a free country yet.

:47:54.:47:55.

His real concern is we could be putting ourselves at odds

:47:56.:47:57.

I am afraid this gentleman is talking from a point of

:47:58.:48:07.

view where he is detached from reality.

:48:08.:48:08.

One of the most broadly based businesses.

:48:09.:48:10.

You saw there the very sectors he is involved in.

:48:11.:48:12.

I am sure large corporations like being in the EU.

:48:13.:48:19.

People who have to compete for jobs, council housing and education don't.

:48:20.:48:24.

That gentleman sees people coming here from the EU as staff.

:48:25.:48:26.

The people who voted for Brexit see them as competition.

:48:27.:48:29.

I am afraid he is detached from reality and trying to

:48:30.:48:31.

In terms of the single market, it is not going to happen.

:48:32.:48:40.

On the subject of detached from reality, let me put to you

:48:41.:48:45.

what one senior businessperson said to me.

:48:46.:48:48.

In a sense, how can you know what you don't have if you don't

:48:49.:48:51.

have it but we might have had it in different circumstances had

:48:52.:48:54.

It depends if you believe in Britain or not.

:48:55.:49:00.

We know what would have happened on that night

:49:01.:49:02.

of the referendum if we had made the historic mistake of staying in.

:49:03.:49:05.

Until the Sunderland vote came through,

:49:06.:49:07.

We would have been sucked into an ever increasing spiral of being

:49:08.:49:12.

Now we have the right to be a free country and make our own decisions.

:49:13.:49:19.

Let me put to you, Bill Cash, reading between the lines of that

:49:20.:49:22.

interview with Peter Rigby, he feels a sense of

:49:23.:49:24.

That rush from gold is a sign of uncertain times.

:49:25.:49:27.

That is the sincerest verdict of all, isn't it?

:49:28.:49:29.

The single market was not working for the UK.

:49:30.:49:37.

We run a 62 billion a year deficit in our trading

:49:38.:49:39.

Exports are up, investment is up, employment is

:49:40.:49:45.

down, consumer retail index up, the FTSE up.

:49:46.:49:47.

We have got a tremendous opportunity globally.

:49:48.:49:57.

Where we currently run over 30 billion a year surplus and it

:49:58.:50:00.

went up by over 10 billion last year.

:50:01.:50:02.

Although the pound is slightly down, the reality is that helps exports.

:50:03.:50:05.

Patrick, the bottom line is that they tried Project Fear

:50:06.:50:14.

When I hear him say that it is ridiculous

:50:15.:50:24.

to say we will be staying in the

:50:25.:50:26.

single market, the reality is that the basic problem is that it never

:50:27.:50:29.

Shabana Mahmood, you have listened patiently to two Brexit Bills.

:50:30.:50:36.

I think they are both making the mistake of presenting a rosy

:50:37.:50:40.

picture and others have presenting a dark picture.

:50:41.:50:44.

The truth is we have not left yet and we do not

:50:45.:50:47.

know what is going to be facing us.

:50:48.:50:48.

I do take issue that losing access to the single market

:50:49.:50:51.

There will be opportunities elsewhere but if I am

:50:52.:51:01.

deal but I also want to see how desperate the British are and what

:51:02.:51:06.

they will give up because of the poor

:51:07.:51:08.

deal they have got from the

:51:09.:51:09.

Thre will be give and take on both sides.

:51:10.:51:12.

We will lose out and I don't think we can deny that we

:51:13.:51:15.

Looking at the party politics, isn't labour between a rock and a hard

:51:16.:51:20.

On opposite sides of the fence from many of your

:51:21.:51:24.

On the other hand, so luke warm was Jeremy Corbyn as a

:51:25.:51:35.

Remain campaign that you have upset the other side as well.

:51:36.:51:42.

I was probably more passionate about Remain in

:51:43.:51:44.

There is a lively debate within the party,

:51:45.:51:48.

in terms of our position in immigration and moving forward.

:51:49.:51:51.

We have to work was a fair migration policy

:51:52.:51:57.

Also what we think good access to the single market looks

:51:58.:52:08.

I think we should try and get the best possible access but if free

:52:09.:52:12.

movement is off the table, I don't think Europe is to offer as

:52:13.:52:16.

Access to the single market of course because we will continue

:52:17.:52:19.

problem is the problem is we could not stay in the single

:52:20.:52:23.

Wants you have left the European Union comedy cannot stay in the

:52:24.:52:33.

single market. The terms that we will have that access is where the

:52:34.:52:37.

real battle will be played out and that is what the Prime Minister is

:52:38.:52:41.

going to be battling. She is going to have a lot of issues in the Tory

:52:42.:52:47.

party. On this programme last Sunday Ken Clarke warned the Prime Minister

:52:48.:52:51.

if she goes for a hard Brexit that you are looking for, she risks being

:52:52.:52:56.

brought down within the party and the court spot is still in place.

:52:57.:53:04.

Not at all, the bottom line is we are supporting the Prime Minister in

:53:05.:53:07.

her approach to this. The bottom line is also that she, having been a

:53:08.:53:15.

remainder, is committed to us coming out. This is good news and the

:53:16.:53:21.

Conservative Party is actually behind her in this. The European

:53:22.:53:28.

Parliament, nearing the end of the road one would imagine. How does the

:53:29.:53:32.

rest of the European Parliament viewed you? Do is see you as the

:53:33.:53:36.

guys in the departure lounge? I think some of them are angry with us

:53:37.:53:41.

and hard and they cannot understand why we don't want to be part of this

:53:42.:53:45.

grand project. Others take inspiration. There are people in

:53:46.:53:49.

that parliament who think they can have their own version of freedom in

:53:50.:53:53.

their own countries. Bring it on. Thank you for joining us here today.

:53:54.:53:58.

That referendum result is once again laid mainly at the door of up our

:53:59.:54:04.

region's underperformance. A report published in the last couple of

:54:05.:54:08.

days, paints a picture of low growth, low wages and the employment

:54:09.:54:14.

levels. While attending the launch event, the mayor candidates had

:54:15.:54:17.

little doubt about the scale of the challenge facing the winner. Midland

:54:18.:54:24.

engine trouble was the foreboding title of the resolution foundation

:54:25.:54:29.

report. Three of the candidates for the mayor were on hand to hear the

:54:30.:54:33.

home truths it contained. A broken heart at the centre of the UK

:54:34.:54:38.

economy, according to the think tank led by the former Conservative

:54:39.:54:41.

minister David Willetts. These are problems that East Midlands have had

:54:42.:54:49.

a long-term issue with. I think it has gotten worse since the financial

:54:50.:54:53.

crisis. What we have seen in a lot of the parts of the UK is that there

:54:54.:54:58.

has been a strong bounce back of employment. In the West Midlands, it

:54:59.:55:02.

has not got back to where it was at the start of the crisis. The report

:55:03.:55:08.

came amongst better news, unemployment falling. There are now

:55:09.:55:16.

151 thousand out of work in the region. It is higher than the

:55:17.:55:20.

national average. The jobless total may be falling but the worrying

:55:21.:55:24.

statistic of this report is that employment here is lower than in any

:55:25.:55:31.

other city region in the UK. 64.5%. Something that has been noted by

:55:32.:55:32.

ministers. The West Midlands has had ministers. The West Midlands has had

:55:33.:55:38.

a lower average rates of employment than the national average for a

:55:39.:55:42.

period of time. That is why it is so important to put a additional effort

:55:43.:55:45.

in and I am encouraged to see the figures we have today in terms of

:55:46.:55:50.

employment and unemployment in the West Midlands. Plenty to do for

:55:51.:55:54.

whoever becomes the Metro Mayor. If you want to get that midland's

:55:55.:56:00.

engine firing on all cylinders. Ukip have selected their candidate for

:56:01.:56:07.

Metro Mayor. He was also the candidate for West Midlands Police

:56:08.:56:10.

and crime commission earlier theres earlier this year. You have to look

:56:11.:56:15.

at this question now from the resolution foundation and say that

:56:16.:56:19.

if we are talking about economic underachievement, that has to be as

:56:20.:56:22.

much a verdict on the Tory Government referendum as it was

:56:23.:56:25.

anything to do with the European union. I do not agree with the

:56:26.:56:30.

resolution foundation's conclusions, or for what you have just said. This

:56:31.:56:35.

is another accumulative problem over a long period of time. The fact is,

:56:36.:56:42.

unemployment in the West Midlands has been going down substantially

:56:43.:56:47.

and actually we have also got enormous opportunities coming out of

:56:48.:56:50.

Brexit, Jaguar and Land Rover and other companies are going to benefit

:56:51.:56:55.

from this. The unemployment figures nationally have been dropping very,

:56:56.:57:02.

very much. Something in the West Midlands alone, something since

:57:03.:57:06.

2010, when the Labour Government was in power, down by 240,000 alone. I

:57:07.:57:11.

wonder whether the story is we have some successes at the top of the

:57:12.:57:16.

economy but along tale of underachievement. Thinking about

:57:17.:57:21.

unemployment among black, minority and ethnic and young white men. Is

:57:22.:57:25.

that the issue in areas? That is part of the issue and it has the

:57:26.:57:30.

highest rate of an appointment in the country. That is one of the

:57:31.:57:32.

reasons we have that problem. I have reasons we have that problem. I have

:57:33.:57:36.

to say to build, you cannot keep hiding behind the fact that

:57:37.:57:40.

something has been a problem for a long time. Part of the reason of

:57:41.:57:43.

explaining why it is the problem today. It is perfectly true to say

:57:44.:57:48.

to tackle long-term systemic to tackle long-term systemic

:57:49.:57:52.

unemployment in areas like Birmingham and the wider West

:57:53.:57:57.

Midlands. We need to have an adequate solution today. We do have

:57:58.:58:00.

the right sort of skills they need. the right sort of skills they need.

:58:01.:58:06.

There is a skills gap in the city. That should not be beyond the wit of

:58:07.:58:10.

Government to be able to have a solution to. When unemployment is

:58:11.:58:14.

going down so substantially, that is good news and as I said, since 2010,

:58:15.:58:20.

it has gone down by the dot Lord Willetts, the head of the resolution

:58:21.:58:29.

foundation. Investment just misses the West Midlands and goes to other

:58:30.:58:33.

areas where skills are better employability... You had better ask

:58:34.:58:36.

him because I do not agree with the analysis that they have come forward

:58:37.:58:39.

with. I think Bill is missing the point. I do not think I am. We have

:58:40.:58:44.

some successes at the end but what is happening in the rest of the

:58:45.:58:49.

not... Can I say, in my constituency not... Can I say, in my constituency

:58:50.:58:58.

we are slightly down. 4000 over the past year. 64% employment, very low

:58:59.:59:08.

over a city region. In my consistency, we have virtually no

:59:09.:59:17.

unemployment. That applies to other parts of the West Midlands as well.

:59:18.:59:22.

Thank you very much indeed. Time now for our round-up of the political

:59:23.:59:27.

seconds as bright as today by the seconds as bright as today by the

:59:28.:59:33.

breakfast presenter. -- is brought to us today. The NFU wants farmers

:59:34.:59:37.

to be paid compensation for greener to clean up costs. Linking --

:59:38.:59:52.

Lincoln Tory MP says plans to... Proud Brummie Jess Phillips has

:59:53.:59:58.

revealed she had the parliamentary record and two occasions. The field

:59:59.:00:05.

to spell the name ma'am the proper Birmingham way. When I say mum and

:00:06.:00:10.

when I talk about my mum or being a mum, the all was right that M U M. I

:00:11.:00:17.

am from Birmingham and the spell it M O M. Strike action spread into the

:00:18.:00:22.

Midlands. The train company trying to introduce driver blistering

:00:23.:00:33.

companies year. He is to start a leadership challenge against Len

:00:34.:00:40.

McCluskey. An echo of those epic battles 30 so years ago when matter

:00:41.:00:45.

moderate Labour MPs purge the hard left of the party. Is this beginning

:00:46.:00:51.

of a counteroffensive in your party? I do not know whether I would

:00:52.:00:56.

describe it like that. We were due a election within Unite. That was

:00:57.:01:00.

always going to happen. I am pleased Gerard is going to run for that

:01:01.:01:05.

election. He is the West Midlands's regional secretary. Very in touch

:01:06.:01:09.

with working people. A new kind of politics with looking at Labour, we

:01:10.:01:19.

have momentum populism. His populism politics changing? I think the trade

:01:20.:01:24.

unions are getting more militant. Some people are trying to put Mr

:01:25.:01:30.

McCluskey back in his place. That is more to do with the internal

:01:31.:01:35.

politics of the Labour Party. I note you would love to come back in on

:01:36.:01:41.

that but it is the season of good will. Thank you to you both. Bill is

:01:42.:01:45.

not the only Tory MP famous for sticking to his guns. Gloucester's

:01:46.:01:52.

Richard Graham raised the intercity rail services at Prime Minister

:01:53.:01:56.

questions. On Tuesday he will be at it again, opening a debate on

:01:57.:02:01.

exactly the same issue. He is nothing if not determined. It is the

:02:02.:02:06.

last word from Parliament almost before the Christmas recess. From

:02:07.:02:06.

all of Will Article 50 be triggered

:02:07.:02:17.

by the end of March, will President Trump start work

:02:18.:02:20.

on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen

:02:21.:02:24.

provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and

:02:25.:02:49.

Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of

:02:50.:02:51.

you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum

:02:52.:02:55.

and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end

:02:56.:02:58.

of the year? I don't think he will lose

:02:59.:03:00.

the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the

:03:01.:03:13.

referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that

:03:14.:03:18.

coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!

:03:19.:03:24.

It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,

:03:25.:03:29.

Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a

:03:30.:03:34.

host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring

:03:35.:03:37.

and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And

:03:38.:03:43.

until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs

:03:44.:03:46.

Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the

:03:47.:03:52.

likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the

:03:53.:03:56.

Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to

:03:57.:04:02.

properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain

:04:03.:04:07.

is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German

:04:08.:04:12.

election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power

:04:13.:04:16.

in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation

:04:17.:04:19.

and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has

:04:20.:04:27.

been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the

:04:28.:04:31.

government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and

:04:32.:04:34.

even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of

:04:35.:04:39.

the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war

:04:40.:04:46.

could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull

:04:47.:04:51.

year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.

:04:52.:04:57.

The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will

:04:58.:05:03.

say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there

:05:04.:05:09.

will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018

:05:10.:05:13.

which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office

:05:14.:05:19.

which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know

:05:20.:05:23.

there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their

:05:24.:05:27.

elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be

:05:28.:05:32.

more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the

:05:33.:05:36.

Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get

:05:37.:05:41.

them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the

:05:42.:05:44.

things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for

:05:45.:05:48.

Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the

:05:49.:05:54.

economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those

:05:55.:05:58.

already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no

:05:59.:06:04.

guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things

:06:05.:06:08.

Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How

:06:09.:06:13.

much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are

:06:14.:06:19.

willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out

:06:20.:06:24.

into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship

:06:25.:06:27.

with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is

:06:28.:06:37.

also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European

:06:38.:06:41.

security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the

:06:42.:06:47.

rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade

:06:48.:06:49.

everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is

:06:50.:06:54.

bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a

:06:55.:06:59.

punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on

:07:00.:07:03.

the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump

:07:04.:07:07.

changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very

:07:08.:07:13.

different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit

:07:14.:07:21.

was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even

:07:22.:07:24.

one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this

:07:25.:07:27.

panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican

:07:28.:07:31.

nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would

:07:32.:07:44.

not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican

:07:45.:07:48.

nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward

:07:49.:07:53.

a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are

:07:54.:07:58.

pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!

:07:59.:08:03.

We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as

:08:04.:08:08.

president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been

:08:09.:08:15.

noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants

:08:16.:08:21.

massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next

:08:22.:08:27.

year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed

:08:28.:08:33.

the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up

:08:34.:08:37.

interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the

:08:38.:08:42.

Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not

:08:43.:08:47.

Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the

:08:48.:08:52.

rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure

:08:53.:08:56.

projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets

:08:57.:09:01.

those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending

:09:02.:09:06.

he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal

:09:07.:09:10.

government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker

:09:11.:09:16.

Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the

:09:17.:09:21.

American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise

:09:22.:09:25.

in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe

:09:26.:09:32.

will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign

:09:33.:09:36.

debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign

:09:37.:09:41.

debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that

:09:42.:09:46.

happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To

:09:47.:09:53.

begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull

:09:54.:09:56.

off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via

:09:57.:10:02.

corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is

:10:03.:10:07.

too expensive for American business to take back into the US and

:10:08.:10:11.

reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end

:10:12.:10:15.

up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on

:10:16.:10:22.

steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for

:10:23.:10:26.

Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports

:10:27.:10:32.

as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign

:10:33.:10:36.

direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice

:10:37.:10:40.

versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and

:10:41.:10:44.

likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the

:10:45.:10:50.

British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about

:10:51.:10:53.

the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President

:10:54.:10:59.

Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net

:11:00.:11:03.

exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they

:11:04.:11:07.

do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US

:11:08.:11:13.

for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft

:11:14.:11:18.

carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,

:11:19.:11:27.

people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust

:11:28.:11:32.

belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are

:11:33.:11:36.

much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar

:11:37.:11:40.

is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of

:11:41.:11:47.

Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now

:11:48.:11:50.

dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections

:11:51.:11:57.

in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which

:11:58.:12:06.

outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would

:12:07.:12:11.

be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in

:12:12.:12:21.

France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois

:12:22.:12:25.

Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right

:12:26.:12:35.

candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.

:12:36.:12:42.

Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois

:12:43.:12:50.

Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last

:12:51.:12:54.

year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation

:12:55.:13:04.

and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the

:13:05.:13:08.

context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as

:13:09.:13:15.

busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up

:13:16.:13:20.

in my hours! That's all for today,

:13:21.:13:22.

thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:23.:13:24.

on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:25.:13:27.

on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:28.:13:29.

it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer

:13:30.:13:33.

can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography

:13:34.:14:13.

in a radical new direction. The dance was woven

:14:14.:14:30.

into the storyline,

:14:31.:14:35.

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