08/12/2013 Sunday Politics West

The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

morning cheer, if you are an MP that is. You are set to get an 1%

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

His wife does the shopping so just how in touch with high street

had on the capital, its politics and those who met him.

With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if

they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no

pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device

throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there

internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't

hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last

week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst

tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be

evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the

small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways his

takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer

It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn

Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when

the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the

economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he

can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted A

lot better. Britain is currently growing faster

than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which

is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this

Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that

borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down

significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good

numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in

giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower

borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British

people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to

government departments. The state pension age will increase in the

2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like

discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for

infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below

that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while

for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a

long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help

those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to

higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't

remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,

but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,

a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the

generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash

with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his

response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed

Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.

There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.

He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on

the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a

mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.

Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the

all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher

extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of

course it means that things are significantly better this year and

next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got

to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures

a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The

reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the

long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more

growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of

the growth we will expect in the years after the next general

election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has

definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague

Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the

viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is

very worrying. Was this a watershed for George

Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that

it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are

spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George

Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about

growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the

next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But

don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it

all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.

I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably

a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his

effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as

well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech

impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The

takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people

are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front

bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be

easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went

through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the

wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.

It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and

he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like

business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price

freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you

say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,

it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not

Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed

Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to

disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little

bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he

went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,

Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his

performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

Osborne has a superior argument I think Ed Balls will certainly trying

his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living

crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.

That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.

One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking

back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,

unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the

Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't

use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,

speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not

sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what

we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of

quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling

public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The

rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never

given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I

don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed

Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,

it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about

what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are

being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have

had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does

Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall

strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the

fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?

A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we

were doing the Autumn Statement If you are going to deal with the cost

of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our

society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure We

believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some

of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business

lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big

structural reforms that we need Ultimately, the public are concerned

about the cost of living crisis That has got to be childcare help, a

10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which

still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you

supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the

Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and

it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.

The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in

the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have

a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension

benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as

we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are

talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about

pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living

longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you

what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for

pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to

announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude

pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension

spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,

exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious

welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year

period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of

that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What

is the longer term? If you win 015? We want to stick with the triple

lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their

short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the

winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of

benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state

pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30 40

year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long term

cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven t

seen the proposition the Government has put before us.

You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true

when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation

does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax

threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the

freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit

changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they

could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors The

VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My

understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?8 1

worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have

to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly

the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was

saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely

out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?

Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the

long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are

facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial

Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.

Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal

debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?

I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing

more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a

Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept

that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn t

sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this

week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the

country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult

decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March

projections work at for those - for both business investment and

exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround

in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before

politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have

gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit

investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have

confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now

under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The

fall in business investment is because of the recession. The

forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the

independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans

of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land

Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are

coming through now because of the confidence generated by this

government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would

increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our

share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it

stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I

have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we

would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would

hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.

Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,

then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more

than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.

On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because

the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed

Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in

recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 3 %.

120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for

the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part

of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is

straightforward. House prices are now rising ten

times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are

rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average

earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you

would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month

companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this

demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to

give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help

to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as

household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt

reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not

been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,

even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --

but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share

in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The

government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall

economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating

for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for

wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people

employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest

risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending

and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure

you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election

than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more

people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better

off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is

access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe

people will be. Compared to 201 . Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This

is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education

Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always

up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education

then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't

stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,

Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform

education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion

for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's

now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further

creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 1 4

have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give

parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,

currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.

An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms

didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace

A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these

reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of

making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief

Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins

me now. Over the past 15 years, we have

doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By

international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year

that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were

coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we

removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is

now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which

to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say

this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually

improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International

comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,

including science. For 20 years our domestic exam results just got

better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the

educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question

there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in

examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.

Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.

Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It

might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,

I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.

The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping

down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,

designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.

This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a

remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading

structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers

coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The

big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is

maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.

These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a

year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we

upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make

sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on

similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going

to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even

worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The

secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who

has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources you

hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the

classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you

allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education

in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.

You have got to actually empower those people that make the

difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot

of money moving what were local authority schools to become

academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the

academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school

is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that

they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?

Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are

early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce

the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst

schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most

disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?

They are doing GCSE equivalents the lass academic subjects question my

cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look

at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of

teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally

develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get

them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same

if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just

a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian

countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most

important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.

We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It s no

good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part

of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor

leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being

put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.

Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than

independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.

I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association

of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT

has called for your resignation Another wants to abolish or

Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If

we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will

carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We

will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools

and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we

think they are going wrong. Many people in the education

establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government s

bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.

You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people

that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what

is necessary to raise standards I am a big supporter of autonomy in

the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free

schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence

that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you

and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,

can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be

in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue

of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified

teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in

three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good

enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a

headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot

get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as

soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you

support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I

could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I

thought somebody straight from university, without qualified

teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I

would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if

they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more

autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools

academies, don't you have to do .. New entrants will be coming into the

market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly

when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is

clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?

Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is

something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be

in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or

underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors

stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a

school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted

should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of

schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough

job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.

Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.

Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us And

we Welcome. Coming up in our last

programme before Christmas, with the cost of living dominating the

political agenda, we take an investment fund manager turned MP in

a trip around the shops in his own constituency. Man man admits his

wife buys the grocery but should it matter whether your local politician

knows the price of bananas? `` Jacob Rees`Mogg. We will be testing these

politicians whether they know the cost of living. They are Labour s

Dawn Primarolo, James Gray and Stephen Williams. First, he was a

man respected about around the globe. Nelson Mandela and his legacy

touched millions of people, including many living in the West

Country. One of them is Rob Witchell, who is a poet in Bristol

and the development worker for the Bristol Forum. He has written this

born just for us about why he will be remembered by the young and old

for generations to come. Mandela, why did you have to die?

We held you in the place we hoped he would live for ever.

Passing piece, Madiba. Goodbye, father.

With Gandhi, was keen on why they call your name. When asked, who is

your hero? In Bristol, we know your name but

not what he stood for, we, from Bristol, British and more so

Mandela, man, you confuse us. Communist? National Trust?

Socialist. Our government had you down as terrorist.

With that sole person from this life, there is the most powerful

remember that you were mortal, like the rest of us. From Johannesburg to

Kingswood, from Cape Town to Kingston. We have no excuse to sit

back. With our model of hero. With all the contradiction. No reason to

stand back and wait for our own perfection. No option but to stand

up and for yourselves to freeze human conviction. Like Mandela,

Madiba, goodbye. Don, you have actually met Nelson

Mandela. What are your thoughts about? I would just want to see what

fantastic poem I thought that was. I was very privileged. I met him twice

briefly for a long period. It was at the Finance Ministers when Gordon

Brown and Tony Blair were putting together the finance package for

edited African Nations Cup and Nelson Mandela came to lobby and

support the plan that was being proposed. `` for African nations

which were ended. What can you say about somebody who has been defining

politics for generations about the struggle in South Africa? And yet he

did it with such grace, intelligence but always that twinkle in his eye

and that little bit of humour. He had a lovely way about him. I think

all of us as politicians wish that had we suffered as much as he had

and then be released after 27 years we would be as well as he did to .

And to leave South Africa to be the fabulous nation it is. What do you

gauge Nelson Mandela's impact on the quality issues in the West Country?

I think he is a Ousely and inspiration to many people. All

primary schools to visit across the West, the most diverse,

multicultural constituency in the south`west of England. They will all

have pictures of him alongside others to inspire the children. He

was inspirational to my generation has stopped I am very envious of

Dawn. When I was getting political myself in the 1980s, I used to go on

anti`apartheid demonstrations against Thatcher and it takes me a

little but, perhaps. He inspired many people in this country. The

left as well as the right? He was a grainy died very great man.

Knowledge fire him and shall miss them. The thing I admire most is

that when he came out of prison he could have attacked the people who

locked him up but he let bygones be bygones. `` he was a very great man.

We all admire him and shall miss him. I think everybody shall agree

with that. The outcome of the next general election will hinge on

places like Swindon. Whichever party wins in Swindon usually wins the

Government. The town was badly hit by the recession but appears to be

enjoying a good recovery. What does that mean for Labour in 2015? This

report does contain some flash photography.

He wants to paint the town red. Ed Balls rolled up his sleeves as he

came campaigning in Swindon. He has regularly rubbed shoulders with

Labour's candidates here and visited before all out cancellations last

year, which saw the Reds just failed to deprive the ruling Tories of

their majority. It was a tough ask given what had to be done. We did

well in Swindon and I am confident that as a platform to when the

Parliamentary seats and counsel They all know that it views to

become the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Labour must succeed in

Swindon. We want to win a Labour majority back in 2015. That means

that we need to win at North, south, east and west in our country.

Swindon is vital for Labour. Need to have Labour MPs back in here, not

just for Swindon but so that we can get that majority. The area relies

heavily on private sector jobs full fare particularly badly when the

downturn came. The conservative` run council reckon recovery started

early. I think that people are feeling more confident. I speak to a

lot of businesses making investments and thinking about doing so. The

outlook is very positive. I appreciate that people are feeling

quite stretched with their private finances, particularly around

utility bills. A feel`good factor could be some way off. Many people

are financially worse off and anger over cuts to services may grow. I

think of resources continue to get pressed by the increase in demand

and reduction in government funding, people will start to see bigger

changes. `` if our resources. Who do you think the public would blame?

That is a good question! I suspect probably the party of government.

How are you? Back with Ed Balls and him meeting the next generation of

voters. He clearly wants some fans. The challenge is to get them to

actually vote in 2015. At least Labour will not have to worry about

the fans of Clegg. Swindon is largely seen as a two horse race but

the Lib Dems picked up one in six votes here in the last election

Will their participation in the core election, `` Coalition swing the

sports back to Labour? I'm guessing they have had a time of it from the

previous government and what they were left to deal with, the Lib

Dems, it is a tough one. It has definitely lowered my opinion of the

Lib Dems. I wouldn't vote for them on that basis again. I am not happy.

Generally not happy with the way everything is going. You have not

been put off? No. I was quite glad that they got there rather than the

Tories getting there altogether Christmas is the season of goodwill

and politics may not feel that way. Let's discuss the state of the

parties, not only in Swindon but right across the rest. Stephen

Williams, some people were very angry with the Lib Dems when they

went into coalition with the Tories because it made this cuts agenda

possible. How are they feeling now? I think the Coalition made the cuts

agenda possible. Under the economic circumstance, it made it a necessity

forced `` I don't think. They were going to have to form the country's

first peacetime coalition against that backdrop and it was always

going to be challenged. They knew it would be tough in the early stages

of the parliament and then hopefully the economy would turn and the

public finances would be on the mend. You didn't plan for that

before the election so we didn't have a manifesto which warned this

was what he would be doing. When you write your next manifesto, isn't

going to mean anything? All three parties are actually going to be

fighting the next general election in a different way because we will

have had five years of coalition. I think all three leaders in most of

the will be slightly different. The manifestoes will be written in

different ways. The public will see that coalition can work. They can

take tough decisions. One of the things that was said at the last

general election was that coalition would lead to weak government. The

unions were predicting social unrest with the strikes, student protests

but it has never happened. Perhaps people are not as angry as you might

think. I think people are angry and I think that they believe, and the

polls are showing, that this Government is making the wrong

choices, that the Coalition is making the wrong choices. It is the

wrong choice to give a tax cut to millionaires whilst cutting

support. What you have been saying that fought going to wear a bit

thin. Very interesting you should say that. The poll that was done

immediately after the Autumn Statement on Thursday showed that

40% of people were saying they thought that Ed Balls had got it

right in terms of, I know where going to discuss this, the cost of

living. But actually, the issues around this Government and the cuts

that they are making, that the inherited an economy growing and

chalked the growth of, now it is coming back, thankfully, but a lot

of pain in between. Let James respond. First thing I would say is

that this business about cutting tax, the highest tax on millionaires

under Labour was 40% and under this Government it is 45%. We have put

the tax upon moaners. I am sure Ed Balls of the nice fellow but... With

that where you shouting at him in Parliament? We are seeing Ed Balls

trying to respond to the excellent Autumn Statement. It is not going as

well as when it was elected. We are having to be ?150 million per day on

the debts that Labour racked up Endlessly, a market in Bath said not

to come because was too busy. A lot of confidence around. We have to

talk about other things because it is the question that makes the blood

of an unwitting MP threes. Just how much do things cost in the shops?

David Cameron was tripped up recently with the price of a loaf of

bread. `` an unwitting MP threes. With the cost of living dominating

the agenda, one of our reporters to one of the West was the wealthiest

MPs on a trip to the shops. `` took one of the West's wealthiest MPs.

It has become the political catchphrase of the year. The Rag

cost`of`living crisis. Cost`of`living crisis. For all their

talk of the squeeze on cost`of`living, our politicians

really in tune with rising prices? I doubt very much they do their own

shopping so I think they are quite detached from the general public. I

cannot see why they would have any understanding of how much a weekly

shop would cost. Someone asked an MP how much a page of milk costs and he

said about a pound. It's like 3 p. I just think they have not got any

idea. I do not think they do their own shopping. Do you think MPs know

how much stuff costs in the shops? No. They probably haven't got a

clue, to be honest. They are not shoppers, are they? Like women! That

is true in the case of the local MP. Jacob Rees`Mogg he's the local shop

to someone else. By which takes charge `` my wife takes charge of

most of these things. Whim of the last time we went to the

supermarket? Is a partner in his own investment

management firm, Mr Rees`Mogg is a very long way from the poverty line.

Despite his lack of retail savvy, he agrees to a special challenge. Three

shopkeepers have agreed to put their local MP to the test on the cost of

some local results tables. First up, the bridge is. I have for delicious

Welsh double lamb chops. My challenge is how much do you think

that will cost? The correct I do not know. They were delicious. I doubt

would get much change for ?10. Let's find out. There are ?12.31. There

you go, an increase in the cost`of`living, otherwise I would

have been right. EV do guess but it is `` a vague guess but quite close.

They're changing the way they buy their food. We have noticed that

people are opting for the cheaper cuts of meat. Obviously for

students, home`made burgers, minced beef and things like that whereas

they might have had a romp state or sirloin steak. There is definitely a

change. Next on the tour, something frequent for his wife. `` fragrant.

We have some here so would you like to have a go at getting much this

bunch would cost? I think that really difficult. I know I have got

to be precise. I am not allowed to give a woolly answer. I would say

?30. That actually costs 35. I was right, flowers are expensive and

even more than I thought but they are very beautiful. Close again But

how will Eton and Oxford's finest fare against his nemesis? I am the

wrong person to ask about bananas because in those banana. I would

never buy bananas! I absolutely hate bananas. They have stumped me on

this one. What you think that would cost you? Being a use that for

pounds two kilos. ?3? You're weird. That is only about ?1 28. Still ?1

28 too much! It is a big slip on our final banana skin but can MPs

legislating in London ever fully understand those they represent I

think it is about empathy rather than experience. I always thought we

are a society of individuals. Nobody liked anybody else's life precisely

and so whatever your background you have to try to have an understanding

of what affect other people and work on that understanding. That is what

is important for politicians, rather than leading identical lives to

their constituents. They will not. The ability of well`paid MPs to

empathise with ordinary shoppers will be tested further as the

argument over the cost`of`living intensifies.

Thank you to Jacob Rees`Mogg for being a good sport and doing the

rounds of the shops for us. As it is Christmas time, we thought we would

have a little quiz for you all. First of all, for an ordinary pack

of water, you can see it behind me, you reckon? `` pack of water. ? .

?2.50. I tend to buy tops. ?1.2 . It is in fact ?1.50. So there is a

prize. Oh, it is unfolded! Excellent. Only the BBC. Our next

one is a Jo Brand resource as it is Christmas. I never buy it. ?2. Oh,

?2.20. ?3.50. It is ?1.50. It was you! Well, I never buy! Lucky guess.

That was, actually. It was a guest! That is my Christmas present sorted.

Cranberries 's! Isn't because it's Christmas. To get back to the

political point, the cost`of`living, that is going to be very much the

agenda for the next election, his Ed Miliband actually been surprised at

them sitting that agenda? No. It is slightly overshadowed by the death

of Nova Mandela but we can see that the economy is better. `` Nelson

Mandela. Who feeling richer? People fear more secure in their jobs ``

feel more secure in their jobs. Look at the predictions on growth in the

economy figures that George Osborne denied. Very encouraging indeed You

are quite right in saying that prices are going up, particularly in

energy. `` George Osborne give out. In the doorstep, in the mailbag

people are very concerned about rising prices of food and their

energy bills. They feel they have got no slack in their budgets. They

are cutting back, even as we run into Christmas, and they are

absolutely worried that something, their heating boiler, might go and

they will need a house repair. What is the Government doing to address

those concerns? The first thing is give people more money in their

pockets by reading the income tax allowance. That is worth ?700 per

year to people. We have frozen fuel duty, cancelled a lot of the fuel

duty rises that Labour had planned. We have frozen council tax. That is

much more significant for many people than their energy bills and

this week, the Lib Dem imagery secretary reduced action on ?50 No,

stopping them going up as much. That is not quite the same thing. `` just

energy bills by ?50. People are saying that the things they need for

their daily lives are too expensive is. They are feeling more expensive

and they are struggling. We cannot always deal with every single price

rise but what we can do is have the economic conditions, more people

going to work, unemployment has fallen below with it was the last

general election, put more money into people's pockets by income tax

changes. Let's take a final run to the political week. This is our 62nd

round up. `` 60 second round up There was anger in the West's

universities. Lecturers and support staff from three unions, saying an

offer of a 1% increase in pay was my belly `` miserly. We have members

who have to put food banks and we do not that is right. But the curtain

will rise again in the Brewhouse Theatre. The venue had been

threatened with closer but is now to be run by a community group. I think

it is great. Now we have got a mountain to climb. There is a lot to

do. Nick Clegg it came to the West. He

stopped by in the Lib Dem seed of Bristol West and Chilton on to

answer questions from the public. Labourers selected its candidate for

Bath, only 18. In his first interview, he showed signs of being

a good addition. Who is your serial, Tony Blair or Tony Ben? There are

both fantastic politicians! Oh, you are going to be on the politics show

for years to come! Well, let us young things discussed

that. What is the appropriate age to become an MP? Well, I think that he

showed a wise head on young shoulders and there are many of

those around. We have lots of in Dom I can MPs. When I was 18, I thought

my father was a fool. When I was 25, I was amazed at how much he had

learned in seven years. 18 is a good age to go to the pub and smoke a

cigarette. 16 is too young to vote. Speaker I have tried to reduce the

voting age to 16 and it passed in January. By the next election I do

not know but by the next general election they may be able to vote.

Thank you. That is Menzies Campbell have to leave things for this

afternoon, or this morning, because that is it for their West this week

and this year. `` that is it from us. We are going to have to leave

this. Thank you for entering into the festive spirit. If you want to

watch this part of the programme again, you will find it on the BBCi

player. Tomorrow, the House of Commons will

pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest

son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that

involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against

apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to

South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put

on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He

also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the

world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this

reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who

raised the standard of humanity Thank you for the gift of Madiba.

Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.

We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not

one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an

election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I

would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been

the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary He

had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot

of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without

bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his

achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that

if you have black majority rule you might have a bloodbath. It's down to

Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that

Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the

key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about

it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That

anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics

in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the

time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in

South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the

anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political

campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's

assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people

that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him

come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you

have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,

picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was

more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice

Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's

performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a

brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best

performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points

he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I

noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that

under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for

him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience

first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not

anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This

is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don t think he would do it. Talk about

shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too

far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would

want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I

can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair

Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put

him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare

secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to

the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,

or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which

could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could

feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,

looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour

strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view

mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead

through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre

of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for

him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison

with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is

between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between

Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging

reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of

recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that

punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?

Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.

We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in

living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David

Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal

lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the

composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we

ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it

smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.

Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I

say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of

the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will

there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,

but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a

third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What

will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to

2.4%. Better stick with the OBR got it wrong last year. Well, they went

down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2 4%, because the housing market in London

is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed

Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,

I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean

have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour

Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence

referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless

they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to

call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come

to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population

of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,

I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,

but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into

figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think

quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a

huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to

speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three

of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend

that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If

you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you

have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true

talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you

will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election

next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this

time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of

the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage

to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like

there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it

would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.