30/03/2014 Sunday Politics West


30/03/2014

Andrew Neil and David Garmston with the latest political news, interviews and debate. With energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey and Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael.


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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:42.

Can Ed Davey keep the lights on Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or

:00:43.:00:46.

the investment our energy market badly needs? We'll be asking the

:00:47.:00:50.

Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better

:00:51.:00:53.

Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We'll be quizzing Scottish

:00:54.:00:58.

Secretary Alistair Carmichael. And whatever happened to the BNP?

:00:59.:01:01.

They could be heading And whatever happened to the BNP?

:01:02.:01:12.

A survey shows that we are hn a confident

:01:13.:01:15.

which runs the capital's Fire Service. The Mayor has a political

:01:16.:01:19.

move designed to silence his critics.

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And with me, as always, the most useless political panel in the

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business, who we're contractually obliged to insult on a weekly basis.

:01:30.:01:34.

But not today, because they are our chosen ones. They are the brightest

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and the best, we've even hired a plane to prove it: Helen Lewis,

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Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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Right, left and centre of the Westminster Establishment have been

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unanimous in saying there would be no chance of monetary union with the

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rest of the UK for an independent Scotland. Then an unnamed minister

:01:59.:02:03.

spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't necessarily so, and that made the

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Guardian's front page. The SNP were delighted and the anti-independence

:02:09.:02:12.

campaign rushed to limit the damage. The faux pas has come at a time when

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the Better Together side was already beginning to worry that things were

:02:17.:02:21.

going the Nationalists' way. Let's speak to a leading light in that

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campaign, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael, who's in

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Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal Democrat spring conference.

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Alistair Carmichael, why is there a sense of crisis now engulfing the no

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campaign? I think that is something of an overstatement. What you have

:02:44.:02:51.

got is, I am getting my own voice played back in my ear. What you have

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got here is one story from an unnamed source, a minister who we

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are told, we do not know for certain, who has speculated on the

:03:02.:03:06.

possibility of a currency union actually happening. I do not think

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that is helpful but it is not any big deal. You have to measure it

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against what we have got publicly named on the record. We have got a

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detailed intervention of the Governor of the Bank of England

:03:18.:03:21.

Mark Carney, outlining all the reasons why a currency union would

:03:22.:03:25.

not be a good idea. And then you have got independent advice from the

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permanent Secretary of the Treasury himself saying actually, this is

:03:30.:03:33.

such a bad idea, that I would never advise a chancellor to go ahead with

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it. You set one against the other and you see that pretty much the

:03:38.:03:43.

force of argument is very much against those of us who want to

:03:44.:03:47.

remain in the United Kingdom. All the minister was saying is come the

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day, if Westminster is negotiating with a new independent Scotland a

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deal is to be done, Faslane where the nuclear deterrent is, there is

:03:56.:03:59.

nowhere else in the UK to put that is, certainly not for the next 0

:04:00.:04:05.

years, a deal would be done, the nuclear weapons would stay in

:04:06.:04:08.

Faslane and Scotland would get a monetary union with the rest of the

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UK. That is perfectly plausible isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is

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simply not plausible. The economy is more important than anything else.

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What you have had here is very clear advice from the treasury officials

:04:23.:04:26.

saying it is not in the economic best interests of the people of

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England Wales, Northern Ireland any more than it is in the interests of

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people in Scotland. Where do you put the nukes? The outcome will not

:04:38.:04:44.

change. Where do you put the nukes when the Nationalists kick you out?

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I do not believe that will be a problem because I do not believe

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Scotland will vote for independence. But you might be asking the Scottish

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Nationalists, who are apparently promoting this, are they then not

:05:00.:05:03.

sincere when they say they want to remove nuclear weapons from

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Scotland? It seems to be a curious mixed message. As you know, I have

:05:08.:05:12.

not got the Nationalists, I have got you, so let me ask you the

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questions. You are widely seen as running a campaign which is too

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negative. The Nationalists are narrowing the gap in the poll found

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you are squabbling among yourselves. This campaign is going pear shaped,

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isn't it? No, let's deal with the polls. All the polls show that the

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people of Scotland want to stay as part of the United Kingdom. Yes

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there were a couple of polls last week that said the gap was narrowing

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a little. The most recent poll of all, the poll on Wednesday which

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actually polled people's voting intentions on the question come

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September showed that only 28% of people in Scotland were prepared to

:06:01.:06:03.

say they were voting yes, as opposed to the 42% who were on our side of

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the argument saying they wish to remain part of the UK. That poll

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said women were skewing towards a yes vote and it showed that the

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don't knows were beginning to skew towards a yes vote. That is why you

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yourself wrote this morning that if your campaign does not get its act

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together, you would be sleepwalking into a split to quote yourself. No,

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to quote myself I said it was not impossible that the Nationalists

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could win that. That is absolutely the case. The biggest danger for the

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United Kingdom camp in this whole argument is people will look at the

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polls. They show us with a healthy lead consistently. As a consequence,

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they think this will not happen It can happen. I have got to tell

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everybody that it could, not least because the Nationalists have an

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enormous advantage in terms of the amount of money they have at their

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disposal to buy momentum. They will be advertising in cinemas, in

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football matches and on social media. We have got to realise what

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is coming and as a consequence, we have got to get our arguments in

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place and our campaign as sharp as theirs. Thank you for joining us.

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Nick, this unnamed minister who gave you the story, did he or she know

:07:30.:07:36.

what they were doing? I do not think they were sitting there wanting to

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blast this out there, because the agreed government position was there

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will not be a currency union, if there is a vote for independence.

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But what I was managing to get hold of whether thoughts that are in the

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deeper recesses of people's minds, when they are looking at the polls

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which have been narrowing, or there was Alistair Carmichael quite

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rightly says, the pro-UK vote is still ahead. People are looking down

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the line, what would happen after the 18th of September this year not

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just the next day but the next year, in those very lengthy

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negotiations that would take place, when there would be a lot of moving

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places on the table. You talked about Faslane, what would happen

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then and that is what I managed to get hold of, that there are thoughts

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about all those pieces that would be on the table. It is not surprising

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that some in Westminster think that. Let's take the Shadow

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Chancellor Danny Alexander at his word, they do not want a monetary

:08:38.:08:44.

union. But if they are faced with giving the Scots a monetary union in

:08:45.:08:48.

a post-independent Scotland, or having to remove the nuclear

:08:49.:08:51.

submarines from Faslane, where they have nowhere else to put them,

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probably except North America, there is a deal to be done. I think

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whatever minister gave Nick his story is probably onto something. If

:09:02.:09:05.

the Scots vote for independence of course a deal will be done about the

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currency because it is not in London's interests to have a

:09:11.:09:13.

rancorous relationship with Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not

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done, how does one country stop another country using its. That is

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different. All London can really do is prevent Scottish intervention on

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the monetary policy committee. The interest rate would be set without

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any regard to the Scottish interest. Even that is only a fatal problem if

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the Scottish economy becomes so out of sync with the UK economy. Except

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it is a problem for Scotland's financial system because if you go

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down that route there is no means of injecting liquidity into the

:09:51.:09:53.

financial system in the financial crisis. That is why they would

:09:54.:09:57.

rather have a monetary union. Is it not remarkable to hear the Secretary

:09:58.:10:00.

of State for Scotland here that the Nationalists are spending too much

:10:01.:10:04.

money, when he represents a campaign which brings together all the major

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parties in the UK and all the resources of the UK and he is

:10:08.:10:12.

bleating about the Nationalists having more to spend? I did think

:10:13.:10:15.

that was a funny line and it was in the Observer. It lays into Alex

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Salmond's plucky upstart idea that he's taking on this big

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establishment. I thought it was a bizarre open goal, I am losing my

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football metaphors, forgive me. The polls are so in favour of a no

:10:32.:10:38.

vote. But the trend has been going their way. We have six months left

:10:39.:10:43.

which is not enough to close the gap. They always tell you Alex

:10:44.:10:47.

Salmond is a strong finisher. The plucky upstarts have this funding

:10:48.:10:54.

from a millionaire. The Better Together campaign are being

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incredibly cautious about where they get their money from. They do not

:10:58.:11:01.

want to go to the City of London Police say, give us a couple of

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million. Being Energy Secretary used to be a

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bit of a dawdle, especially when North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's

:11:08.:11:11.

very much a hot potato as Ed Davey has been finding out the hard way.

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High household energy bills have been top of his inbox. The big six

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energy companies account for 95 of the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem

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said there had been possible tacit coordination in the timing of price

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rises and ordered an investigation by the competition and markets

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authorities which will look at whether the big six should be broken

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up. Where does that leave investment? The boss of Centrica

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made the point that you would not spend money building an extension if

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you knew in two years time your home might be bulldozed. The spare

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margin, that is what is left in the generating system to cope with a

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surge in demand on a cold winter's night, is due to drop to

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historically low levels in 2016 according to Ofgem. Normally at

:12:10.:12:14.

around 15%, capacity could drop to 2% after the next election and that

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could lead to a surge in the sale of candles. Now where is that light

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switch? Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me

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now. Oh, we have found the light switch! The gap between a peak

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winter demand and generating capacity could possibly reach 2

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next winter or the winter after We will keep the lights on, that is for

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clear. When we came to power, energy investment had been relatively low.

:12:48.:12:51.

The Labour Party had failed to deal with the energy deficit. From day

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one we have been pushing up massively. Investment has been

:12:56.:13:03.

billion a year. Last year was a record. Spare capacity is now

:13:04.:13:07.

heading to 2%. Why are you allowing it to get that no? Because we have

:13:08.:13:12.

been increasing investment massively, last was a record level,

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we will be able to keep the lights on. Some of the figures you are

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showing suggests we are not doing anything. We have not only done

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enough in our last three years, we have put in measures to stimulate

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huge amounts of extra investment. We have the healthiest pipeline

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investment in our history. We will come onto investment in a minute.

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None of that change is the fact that we will be close to 2% next winter

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or the winter after that. We have one major power station shut down,

:13:44.:13:50.

or a cold winter away from having major problems with energy supply.

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It is still 2%. Let me explain. The figures assume we are not doing

:13:59.:14:02.

anything but we are doing something. Look at the National Grid. They are

:14:03.:14:06.

able to bring in energy from interconnector is because we are

:14:07.:14:11.

connected up to Europe. They are able to create a reserve so if we

:14:12.:14:17.

get to problems, they will have a mothballed plant they can bring on.

:14:18.:14:23.

You have not agreed with anybody on that. The decision was taken last

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July. But no supplier has agreed to under mothball its plant. We would

:14:30.:14:34.

not expect them to do that yet. Our plan is in place. On time, on

:14:35.:14:40.

schedule, as we already thought it would be. But you have not got a

:14:41.:14:45.

single agreement with a power supply who has mothballed plant to on the

:14:46.:14:52.

ball it. We did not expect to. Our plan is in me National Grid will do

:14:53.:14:58.

an election to allow those plants to come on. There is a huge amount of

:14:59.:15:02.

interest. There are gigawatts of power that can come in to come on.

:15:03.:15:05.

There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of power that

:15:06.:15:09.

can come into that auction and we are not other measures we can take

:15:10.:15:13.

and that is just in the short term. We have a plan for the medium-term.

:15:14.:15:18.

We will be running the first auction for new capacity. The final decision

:15:19.:15:34.

will be taken and we have learned lessons from what they do in North

:15:35.:15:36.

America and other European countries so we can stay minute mothballed

:15:37.:15:39.

plants and new plants to be built. I am absolutely clear there is not a

:15:40.:15:48.

problem. You only build 9000 megawatts of new capacity from

:15:49.:15:55.

2011-13. You have closed almost 22,000 megawatts. Why would you be

:15:56.:15:58.

so cavalier with a nation's power supply? The last Government was

:15:59.:16:02.

cavalier because we knew those figures are happening because we've

:16:03.:16:06.

known for a long time a lot of power plants were coming to the end of

:16:07.:16:10.

their life, coal power plants, nuclear power plants, and we had to

:16:11.:16:13.

increase the rate of investment but we... That shows clearly you are

:16:14.:16:21.

closing twice as much, you have to date, closed twice as much as you

:16:22.:16:24.

have opened, hence the lack of spare capacity. We knew a lot of them are

:16:25.:16:28.

coming back for the last Labour Government knew. We have increased

:16:29.:16:32.

the new so that's increasing significantly, far faster than under

:16:33.:16:35.

the last Government but also remember, you were very wrong at the

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beginning of your clip, margins at 15% are very own usual. They are

:16:40.:16:47.

historically high. The average margin was 25%. That was wasting a

:16:48.:16:52.

huge amount of money. But since privatisation, we've had margins

:16:53.:16:57.

between 5% and 10%. Normally, high margins historically, which is

:16:58.:17:03.

costly. Now we will have historically low margins. People

:17:04.:17:07.

have to pay for that, so we make sure the lights stay on, we have a

:17:08.:17:11.

short-term policy I have described to you, and medium-term policy and a

:17:12.:17:15.

long-term policy. The long-term policy comes huge investment between

:17:16.:17:16.

nuclear and optional, policy comes huge investment between

:17:17.:17:40.

on. Ofgem, Independent, says the chance of blackouts by 2016 has

:17:41.:17:48.

increased fourfold under your watch. What they say, if you read the

:17:49.:17:56.

report, if we did nothing, they would be problems. But we have been

:17:57.:18:00.

working with Ofgem. We have been working with National Grid, and we

:18:01.:18:05.

have agreed that there will be a reserve capacity which can come on

:18:06.:18:09.

if we get to the peak for the Best not just on the supply side but

:18:10.:18:15.

demand and into connectors. You talk about industry having to move to

:18:16.:18:19.

off-peak times. We say, they are prepared to that you paid for it,

:18:20.:18:23.

and it makes commercial sense for them, it's a sensible thing for the

:18:24.:18:27.

Wii will pay them to move to off-peak. You have huge diesel parks

:18:28.:18:31.

for the you talk as if that something new but it's been around

:18:32.:18:34.

for a long time for the 200 these contracts out there. We want to

:18:35.:18:40.

expand that. You have hundreds of diesel generators to click into

:18:41.:18:43.

haven't you? There's a whole range of generators. Diesel generation,

:18:44.:18:51.

dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed gas which can come. If you look at

:18:52.:18:56.

the increase of the independent generators, many companies, a range

:18:57.:19:06.

of power companies who are building a new power station and want to

:19:07.:19:11.

build new ones. This is a healthy situation. You say you made over 100

:19:12.:19:14.

billion new investment between now and the end of the decade to restore

:19:15.:19:18.

capacity and meet renewable targets. Now you have referred the

:19:19.:19:22.

Big Six to the competition commission, how much of that to

:19:23.:19:27.

expect to come from them? We will see what the market delivers. We

:19:28.:19:32.

have always expected independent generators to do a lot more than is

:19:33.:19:37.

happening in the past. How much from the Big Six? It's not for me to say

:19:38.:19:42.

it's going to be best from that company. The real interest is we

:19:43.:19:46.

have huge amounts of companies wanting to invest. If you look at

:19:47.:19:51.

independent analysis, they say Britain is one of the best places to

:19:52.:19:55.

invest in energy in the world. We are the worldly do in offshore

:19:56.:19:58.

wind, one of the best for renewables, one of the only

:19:59.:20:01.

countries getting nuclear power stations. Rather than the bleaker

:20:02.:20:06.

picture you're painting, the reverse is the case. We are seeing an

:20:07.:20:11.

investment renaissance. You say that. Let me give you some facts.

:20:12.:20:16.

Under this Government, only one gas plant has been under construction,

:20:17.:20:21.

only one started under your watch for the others were done under

:20:22.:20:24.

Labour. You have none in the pipeline. The Big Six has pulled

:20:25.:20:29.

back from further investment including new offshore wind

:20:30.:20:32.

investment and none of what you re talking about will come before 020

:20:33.:20:37.

anyway. That's simply not true. The balance reserves I've talked about,

:20:38.:20:41.

the reserve planned: Making sure the mothballed plant could come on, I

:20:42.:20:45.

capacity market incentivising new power, will happen way before 2 20,

:20:46.:20:52.

so that's not true. But doesn't answer the extra capacity. You have

:20:53.:20:55.

no answer between now and the end of this decade. We have three answers.

:20:56.:21:00.

Let me repeat them for you. I said permanent, not the short-term ones

:21:01.:21:05.

you are putting in place to try to do with spare capacity. We have a

:21:06.:21:09.

short-term plan, of course, that's very sensible. Medium-term plan

:21:10.:21:14.

auctioning for new power stations. That can lead to both mothballed

:21:15.:21:17.

plant and when you plant, permanent plant being built, and the long term

:21:18.:21:23.

plan, to stimulator long-term investment, some of which will be

:21:24.:21:27.

built and come online way before the end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's

:21:28.:21:31.

a far rosier picture than your painting. It's also far more

:21:32.:21:36.

expensive, too. Let's look at how you are replacing relatively cheap

:21:37.:21:39.

energy with much more expensive sources of energy. Wholesale prices

:21:40.:21:45.

is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You

:21:46.:21:52.

have indexed it for 30 years at 2012 prices.

:21:53.:22:03.

All of that puts up our bills. First of all, the support of the low

:22:04.:22:12.

Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has been driving peoples bills over the

:22:13.:22:17.

last decade has been wholesale gas prices. No one knows what guys

:22:18.:22:20.

prices are going to be in the future -- gas prices. When you look at the

:22:21.:22:25.

Ukraine and other market indicators, many people are worried that by the

:22:26.:22:28.

time nuclear power stations come online for example, the price of gas

:22:29.:22:33.

could be significantly higher. You have indexed linked that for them by

:22:34.:22:36.

the time you get any power from this, it'll be up to ?125 per

:22:37.:22:42.

megawatt hour. The price of gas been going up far higher. Not recently.

:22:43.:22:51.

Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not recently. The long-term forecast,

:22:52.:22:54.

Andrew, it's going to go higher but more importantly than that, this is

:22:55.:22:58.

an area we could disagree on but it's very important that power

:22:59.:23:02.

plants pay the cost of pollution. In those prizes, all of those prices

:23:03.:23:07.

except the wholesale out a steep price, you have those power stations

:23:08.:23:12.

paying the cost of air pollution. If gas and coal where paying the proper

:23:13.:23:16.

carbon price, you would see nuclear and renewables as competitive. It's

:23:17.:23:21.

very important that we ensure that power plants pay the cost of the

:23:22.:23:25.

pollution. When you were last on this programme to talk about this in

:23:26.:23:29.

May 2012, you said that the price of offshore wind was coming down fast.

:23:30.:23:34.

You told me it would be down by 30% in the next few years. That figure

:23:35.:23:40.

is 155, and for the deeper stuff, it's going to be ?165. That's the

:23:41.:23:46.

first year of a limit control framework which had it coming down.

:23:47.:23:53.

If you talk to many companies, Siemens had invested with their

:23:54.:23:59.

partners, ?310 million with two new factories. They are talking about

:24:00.:24:05.

lower prices because what they are saying to me is that, rather than

:24:06.:24:11.

the 30% cost reductions I talked about, I was wrong, they are

:24:12.:24:16.

targeting 40%. You said prices would come down 30% in two years for that

:24:17.:24:20.

that was 2012 and they have gone higher. I absolutely did not say

:24:21.:24:25.

that. Your exact quote was 30% in the next few years. Your exact few

:24:26.:24:29.

years. You said two years, I sell a few years. I haven't changed a

:24:30.:24:34.

single moment that you said two years, I said a few years. That s

:24:35.:24:39.

what we are projecting. They will come down. You have to invest in

:24:40.:24:44.

technology. Let me give you this example. When people invest in

:24:45.:24:47.

mobile phones to start off with they were expensive, and they were

:24:48.:24:56.

clunky and the costs were going down for the one final question. You put

:24:57.:25:01.

the Big Six into investigation because they made a 5% return on

:25:02.:25:05.

investment and you're done a deal with EDF, nuclear power, which will

:25:06.:25:11.

guarantee them a return of 10% 15% every year for 30 years. Doesn't

:25:12.:25:15.

that underline the shambles of your energy policy? You have mixed up two

:25:16.:25:20.

separate things. The 5% Ofgem are talking about is on the supply

:25:21.:25:24.

retail side. The percentage you quoted for EDF is in the wholesale

:25:25.:25:29.

side of two different markets. It's the same return. It's not. You are

:25:30.:25:33.

comparing apples and pears, dangerous thing to do. You have to

:25:34.:25:39.

do have a high return but in the retail market, with a 5% stake,

:25:40.:25:42.

there is less risk, says a low return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we

:25:43.:25:50.

haven't got more time. Thank you. Have me back. We will. Whatever

:25:51.:25:55.

happened to the BNP? The far right party looked as if it was on the

:25:56.:25:59.

verge of a major breakthrough not so long ago. Now it seems to be going

:26:00.:26:03.

nowhere. In a moment we'll be speaking to the party's press

:26:04.:26:05.

officer, Simon Derby. But first here's Giles. His report contains

:26:06.:26:08.

some flash photography. For a moment in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had

:26:09.:26:12.

a spring in their step, smiling at their success of winning two seats

:26:13.:26:15.

in the European Parliament. They already were the second largest

:26:16.:26:18.

party in a London council and had a London Assembly seat. Despite

:26:19.:26:21.

concerns from mainstream parties their vote was up. Our vote

:26:22.:26:33.

increased up to 943,000. Savouring success was brief that morning as

:26:34.:26:36.

anti-far right protestors invaded and egged the press conference and

:26:37.:26:39.

forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty retreat. What is more significant is

:26:40.:26:43.

that, in the years since, that retreat has been matched internally,

:26:44.:26:46.

electorally and in the minds of those who had given them that vote.

:26:47.:26:57.

For a number of years they were performing better than the UK

:26:58.:26:59.

Independence Party and other smaller parties like the Greens and respect.

:27:00.:27:03.

The problem for the BNP if they didn't make any inroads into other

:27:04.:27:06.

groups, they didn't go into the middle class, the young, they didn't

:27:07.:27:11.

go into women and ethnic minorities for obvious reasons. So the party

:27:12.:27:14.

was quickly handicapped from the outset. Not that you would have

:27:15.:27:20.

known that at the outset. In 20 6 in Barking and Dagenham, the party won

:27:21.:27:23.

12 council seats against a back drop of discontent with the ruling Labour

:27:24.:27:26.

council and Government and picking up on immigration and housing

:27:27.:27:35.

concerns in the borough. It's because of all the different

:27:36.:27:38.

nationality people moving in the area, they are taking over

:27:39.:27:42.

everything. My Nan and grandad lived there all their lives. I thought I

:27:43.:27:48.

would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah, they will get elected over here

:27:49.:27:54.

When I came to Barking, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a

:27:55.:27:58.

second largest party in one of the local councils. You can even find

:27:59.:28:03.

non-white people who voted BNP. Now they have no counsellors, and even

:28:04.:28:06.

though can when you talk to people, you will find among the older white

:28:07.:28:11.

working-class population concerned that the BNP claim to represent

:28:12.:28:15.

everyone says they are nowhere. So what happened to that about? On

:28:16.:28:22.

behalf of all the people in Britain, we in Barking have not just beaten,

:28:23.:28:27.

that we have smashed the attempt of extremist outsiders. The local

:28:28.:28:31.

Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as she is now. I always knew if we

:28:32.:28:39.

could manage to ensure that wasn't a single BNP councillor left on the

:28:40.:28:42.

council and I won my seat, it would stop the process of disintegration.

:28:43.:28:45.

But what beat the BNP here in 2 10 was a mobilisation of the Labour

:28:46.:28:49.

vote. And today it is not hard to find the same discontent over the

:28:50.:28:53.

same issues. It's just finding a new political home. A couple of years

:28:54.:29:00.

ago, I used to vote Labour. Obviously, they haven't done nothing

:29:01.:29:05.

around here as much now, with jobs and unemployment, and housing and

:29:06.:29:09.

stuff like that about, basically, BNP ain't around here no more. Now

:29:10.:29:13.

it's more about UKIP and I believe that these UKIP are saying are true.

:29:14.:29:18.

If I thought BNP would make the difference, I would vote but is not

:29:19.:29:23.

in the people behind them. They all get bandaged with the same brush.

:29:24.:29:27.

I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP didn't get anywhere. What they say

:29:28.:29:31.

in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they will get somewhere. It's not racist

:29:32.:29:35.

but it's just that our kids haven't got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of

:29:36.:29:40.

UKIP is mutual but his once fellow MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the

:29:41.:29:43.

party issued a statement to this programme saying BNP failure is

:29:44.:29:52.

closer to home post 2010. It was after that election discontent arose

:29:53.:29:54.

amongst sections of the membership. Those members who left or were

:29:55.:30:11.

thrown out by Nick Griffin had already felt let down by his

:30:12.:30:15.

appearance on Question Time. It was a national platform for the BNP

:30:16.:30:18.

something they felt they had the right to through electoral success.

:30:19.:30:28.

This was no big breakthrough moment for Griffin, unlike it was for John

:30:29.:30:34.

Marina pen when he appeared on national television in France. He

:30:35.:30:38.

went on to mobilise a national force. Despite there being some

:30:39.:30:41.

voters tuned to their message, for the BNP, becoming such a force here

:30:42.:30:45.

has never looked quite so difficult. And Simon Derby from the BNP joins

:30:46.:30:53.

me now. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It was not long ago you

:30:54.:30:57.

had 55 councillors up and down the land, you now have two. You are on

:30:58.:31:03.

the brink of extinction. That is not true. I have watched the film. It is

:31:04.:31:09.

very negative as I would expect The party has faced a few problems. The

:31:10.:31:13.

main thing to bear in mind is that the issues, the problems the country

:31:14.:31:20.

faces have gone away. We won nearly a million votes in the European

:31:21.:31:25.

elections. We brought that mandate to the establishment and we were

:31:26.:31:35.

denied. Let's face it, we would -- were denied any opportunity to take

:31:36.:31:40.

place in the political apparatus. You have been destroyed by a pincer

:31:41.:31:45.

movement. UKIP has taken away or more respectable voters and the EDL

:31:46.:31:52.

is better at anti-Muslim protests and street thuggery. The EDL is not

:31:53.:31:59.

a political party. I take your point about UKIP. The power structure took

:32:00.:32:03.

a look at us and so we were a threat to power. We were not making this

:32:04.:32:09.

stuff up, we meant it and they have co-opted our message. This shameless

:32:10.:32:14.

promotion of UKIP, you have evenly had him presenting the weather on

:32:15.:32:17.

this programme. That is unbelievable. That was a joke.

:32:18.:32:23.

Across Europe, in France, your sister party the National front will

:32:24.:32:28.

probably do very well. You can see the rise of the far right across

:32:29.:32:33.

Western Europe so why are you in decline? We are not far right, I

:32:34.:32:39.

reject that label. How would you describe yourselves nationalists and

:32:40.:32:57.

Patriots. Why are you in decline and other similar parties to yours are

:32:58.:33:02.

on the rise? You mentioned Barking and it is very interesting because I

:33:03.:33:06.

was involved in that campaign. What Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party

:33:07.:33:11.

did, they replaced the white indigenous population in Barking and

:33:12.:33:15.

Dagenham with Africans, that is how they won that election. For that was

:33:16.:33:18.

true, you would be doing well elsewhere. You have now got a leader

:33:19.:33:24.

who is declared bankrupt and your party is heading for bankruptcy

:33:25.:33:30.

No, it is not. It is over. You would like that. What I would like is

:33:31.:33:36.

irrelevant. Your membership is in deep decline. All parties have highs

:33:37.:33:42.

and lows. In 2009 they said it is no way you will win any seats in the

:33:43.:33:46.

European election. We did. And then you lost them. Parties win and lose

:33:47.:33:55.

seats. The Lib Dems will be annihilated. You deny you are far

:33:56.:34:01.

right. People used to say the BNP were neo-Nazis. Then Nick Griffin

:34:02.:34:12.

appeared with Golden Dawn. They are not neo-Nazis, they are Nazis. It is

:34:13.:34:17.

part and parcel of being in politics. You have to appear with

:34:18.:34:24.

them? Of course we do, we have to speak to ordinary people. I am

:34:25.:34:28.

perfectly happy speaking to you at the BBC, the BBC have a terrible

:34:29.:34:33.

reputation but I am happy to be here. Mr Griffin has asked me, when

:34:34.:34:37.

will the BBC apologised for trying to put him in prison twice, merely

:34:38.:34:44.

for exposing a Muslim scandal. Why can't Nick Griffin appear on TV and

:34:45.:34:52.

self? He would not appear. He was in Syria. He literally flew out to

:34:53.:34:57.

Damascus and prevented a war. We decided we would not interfere in

:34:58.:35:03.

Syria. The BBC never covered that. Please do not make out we are just

:35:04.:35:07.

an ordinary political party you cover like everybody else. It is

:35:08.:35:13.

completely different. All the signs are, membership, performance at the

:35:14.:35:18.

polls, performance at elections the problem with your leadership is you

:35:19.:35:23.

are now going the way of the National front, heading for

:35:24.:35:27.

oblivion. As I said to you before, that may be the case, if all the

:35:28.:35:32.

problems we had not highlighted and how we got a huge vote so many years

:35:33.:35:37.

ago, six years ago now, five years ago, in 2009, if they were not

:35:38.:35:42.

around. These things are only going to get worse. We are looking at a

:35:43.:35:46.

prototype Islamic republic that is going to be set up in this country.

:35:47.:35:50.

That will lead to huge problems Only the British National Party are

:35:51.:35:54.

prepared to say that and deal with it. Word leaked out that I was doing

:35:55.:35:59.

this interview with you before the weekend. Isn't it a sign of how

:36:00.:36:04.

irrelevant you now are that not a single person has turned up at New

:36:05.:36:09.

Broadcasting House this morning to protest? Used to be hundreds would

:36:10.:36:14.

turn up when we said the BNP were on. That is the left for you, they

:36:15.:36:18.

put the clocks forward and they could not be bothered to get out of

:36:19.:36:22.

bed. I think they are still in bed. Thank you.

:36:23.:36:25.

You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in

:36:26.:36:28.

Politics Scotland. Coming up here in Politics Scotland. Coming up here in

:36:29.:36:44.

Welcome to the part of the show just for us here in the West. Thhs week,

:36:45.:36:52.

will you have enough to livd on when you retire. We revealed the results

:36:53.:36:59.

of a survey. And from pensions to students. We go back to University

:37:00.:37:04.

and joined the students union. These people are campaigning, but most of

:37:05.:37:11.

their friends won't vote. Why are we not interested in democracy

:37:12.:37:13.

anymore? On the show, two men, Lord Tom

:37:14.:37:21.

King, who served as Defence Secretary under Margaret Th`tcher,

:37:22.:37:25.

and the Liberal Democrat MP Steve Webb, who is the pensions mhnister.

:37:26.:37:32.

We will first talk about thd situation in the Crimea. A lot of

:37:33.:37:37.

people talking about how we need to reverse the spending cuts. What you

:37:38.:37:44.

think? It is a tough time now. I think that the plans that wd have

:37:45.:37:49.

made are sensible. As long `s the reserves can back up the arly.

:37:50.:37:58.

Would Vladimir Putin have done what he has done if you were in charge?

:37:59.:38:06.

Crimea is a very special case. I saw were millions of Russians wdre

:38:07.:38:17.

remembered for defending, adages important to see it, not as an

:38:18.:38:24.

important part of a campaign to take on the west. We need to be ready and

:38:25.:38:31.

make clear what will happen if he woke `` went into the rest of the

:38:32.:38:36.

Ukraine. Would you agree with that? Would you fight for Crimea?

:38:37.:38:43.

I think we need to remember that we are no longer the Wolves's

:38:44.:38:49.

policeman. `` the policeman of the world. We do not have an empire

:38:50.:38:57.

anymore. We need to look at cyber attacks. I think going back on

:38:58.:39:03.

spending cuts would be a mistake. Are you worried about retirdment?

:39:04.:39:08.

The government have decided to sort out our pensions. A survey shows the

:39:09.:39:16.

challenge. 1000 people betwden 0 and 65 were survey. 30% werd worried

:39:17.:39:21.

about their financial securhty in retirement. The figure was higher

:39:22.:39:25.

for those in their 30s and those in lower paid jobs.

:39:26.:39:30.

We'll be pensions revolution change that?

:39:31.:39:37.

When the government announcdd changes to the pension systdm,

:39:38.:39:43.

encouraging the newly retirdd to buy a new car was probably what they

:39:44.:39:48.

were not expecting. The image they preferred was of the state becoming

:39:49.:39:58.

less nanny driven. When the Chancellor talked `bout

:39:59.:40:03.

rolling down the state, it went down well. There is a patronising view

:40:04.:40:10.

that pensions cannot be trusted with their own pension. I reject that.

:40:11.:40:14.

People who have worked hard and saved hard all their lives should be

:40:15.:40:19.

trusted with their own finances That is what we will now do. Trust

:40:20.:40:25.

the people. At the moment, everyone is saving

:40:26.:40:30.

into a contribution pension, can take 25% of the pot as a tax`free

:40:31.:40:36.

lump sum. With the rest of the money, most people have to buy an

:40:37.:40:43.

annuity, which provides a monthly income until death. The average

:40:44.:40:49.

pension pot is ?36,000. Frol April 2016, most people will not have to

:40:50.:40:56.

buy an annuity, most may usd it to pay off their mortgage. Thex may be

:40:57.:41:01.

taxed. But many people do not have a pension. Like this woman, who works

:41:02.:41:09.

with the elderly. I have no pension at all. I have not even thotght

:41:10.:41:14.

about it. I have not always worked full`time. You do not think about

:41:15.:41:20.

the pension. I was married `nd I was relying on my husband's pension

:41:21.:41:26.

From this week, that is changing. She and other staff will be put into

:41:27.:41:33.

pension schemes unless they opt out. Experts are telling thdm more.

:41:34.:41:39.

Your employer will contribute, the taxman will contribute.

:41:40.:41:47.

Two years ago, enrolment began with big firms. Now this measure is being

:41:48.:41:52.

expanded and Helen is happy. All we heard was that everyone will

:41:53.:41:59.

be enrolled automatically. We were thinking that we have no choice

:42:00.:42:04.

about this. But now it has been explained to us, it seems rdally

:42:05.:42:10.

good. It seems a good option. For the same reasons that wd never

:42:11.:42:14.

started saving, that it is `ll too complicated, will hopefully mean

:42:15.:42:20.

that once we put in a pension, we will stay there. We will put people

:42:21.:42:24.

in the right place, they will start saving for retirement.

:42:25.:42:31.

Maybe not a new car now, but perhaps something more expensive on

:42:32.:42:38.

retirement. Brian Hill is an independent

:42:39.:42:43.

financial adviser. He is here to help us about pensions. But first,

:42:44.:42:47.

we will talk to the Minister. ?36,000 is the average penshon. What

:42:48.:42:53.

with that lie if you had to buy an investment?

:42:54.:42:58.

A simple rule is that for ?0000 in your pot, you get ?1 a week. See you

:42:59.:43:05.

would get ?36 per week for ` pension. It is not enough for most

:43:06.:43:11.

people. That is why we are doing what you saw in the story, Helen had

:43:12.:43:18.

no pension, she may never h`ve one into one. She automatically got put

:43:19.:43:24.

into one, she would have to opt out. That is the way that it works.

:43:25.:43:30.

If it is ?36,000 or more, you might as well take the money, go for a

:43:31.:43:34.

cruise around the world and then worry about things.

:43:35.:43:39.

We are trying to give peopld a choice. The state pension h`s been

:43:40.:43:45.

simplified. It will be just above means testing. If that is all you

:43:46.:43:51.

want to live on, that is fine. The pension is being set above the

:43:52.:43:58.

benefit level, but the basic level will get you clear of the bdnefits,

:43:59.:44:02.

and then you can choose whether to spend it throughout your retirement

:44:03.:44:07.

or early on. But it will be your choice.

:44:08.:44:14.

You are from a generation of final salary pension schemes. Is ht sad

:44:15.:44:17.

that our young people are bding denied that? One of the big worries

:44:18.:44:25.

is how poor the annuities work, because with the interest r`tes the

:44:26.:44:32.

whole reward now which used to be much higher, it is a major problem

:44:33.:44:36.

now that we face. When the country was much poorer,

:44:37.:44:42.

now we are a rich country and we cannot give people these pensions.

:44:43.:44:48.

One of the things that we are talking about which is excellent is

:44:49.:44:55.

making people have a pension. It was classic in the clip that thd woman

:44:56.:45:03.

had not been able to do so xet, like many people.

:45:04.:45:08.

In broad terms, many of my colleagues are very happy that there

:45:09.:45:12.

is more flexibility with pensions and taking money from it. The worry

:45:13.:45:20.

that we have is the implementation. We are concerned to see durhng the

:45:21.:45:26.

Budget that you mentioned that people would no longer have to buy

:45:27.:45:30.

an annuity. That has been the case for 20 years. For those unddr 7 , it

:45:31.:45:36.

applied for everyone. That hs old news.

:45:37.:45:42.

Yes, but as the Chancellor was trying to do, he was trying to

:45:43.:45:46.

simplify the message. Most people did not have the option, if they

:45:47.:45:53.

already had a pension pot to do this.

:45:54.:45:59.

We support the flexibility with financial advice. The idea that you

:46:00.:46:05.

can provide in people 's holes to help people get high qualitx

:46:06.:46:09.

guidance would not hit the lark at all. Most appeal that `` most people

:46:10.:46:15.

that I deal with have three pensions. So if you have all of

:46:16.:46:19.

these different advisers giving you different advice. The answer is as

:46:20.:46:27.

the consult patients of the government said, it has to be high

:46:28.:46:35.

quality advice from people who are qualified. There are a lot of people

:46:36.:46:39.

around. Should this be factored in?

:46:40.:46:45.

People do need help, and thdre are different factors for that. Everyone

:46:46.:46:50.

should have the right for free independent advice, with soleone who

:46:51.:46:56.

talks you through the basics. You then have to go through the choices.

:46:57.:47:04.

People make the decisions incorrectly and then they c`nnot get

:47:05.:47:08.

away from them. Why do we not all have the same

:47:09.:47:11.

pension and then you make your own provision after that? We ard trying

:47:12.:47:16.

to move in that direction whth the state pension, so there is one

:47:17.:47:22.

simple state pension. But wd have built on history, that businesses

:47:23.:47:28.

have given the pensions. Swdeping thataway, we may need to silplify,

:47:29.:47:35.

but we do not want to have several different pensions. So now xour

:47:36.:47:38.

pension will go with you whdn you change jobs.

:47:39.:47:45.

The key problem is the effect on benefits as well. People will start

:47:46.:47:49.

losing their benefits from the pension reforms.

:47:50.:47:56.

From how we feel from getting older, to the concerns of young people

:47:57.:48:02.

David Blunkett was talking to young people this week, saying th`t we

:48:03.:48:08.

should be concerned about the levels of apathy. Students say that they

:48:09.:48:11.

are interested in politics, but are being ignored.

:48:12.:48:17.

You don't often see this on the Westminster Trail. It is a flash

:48:18.:48:24.

mob, designed to get the vote out for the Bristol University tnion

:48:25.:48:30.

elections. But for all the shouting, bribes

:48:31.:48:41.

and... Vote for women. And the weirdness, more and more of

:48:42.:48:49.

today's young are not voting. I have never voted. You have never voted?

:48:50.:48:57.

Many sympathise with a cert`in comedian whose argument agahnst

:48:58.:49:02.

voting has been watched 10 lillion times. It is not that I am not

:49:03.:49:10.

voting out of apathy, it is that I am exhausted from the lies of the

:49:11.:49:15.

political class that have bden going on for generations and has reached

:49:16.:49:21.

fever pitch, where there is a despondent underclass who wdre not

:49:22.:49:25.

represented. The headache for politicians is he

:49:26.:49:32.

may have a point. In 2010, 60 5 of the public voted. A recent survey

:49:33.:49:37.

showed that if a general eldction was held tomorrow, only 41% of

:49:38.:49:43.

people would attend. And in young people, that is only 12%. Wd decided

:49:44.:49:49.

to get to the bottom of all of this by setting up our own stall.

:49:50.:49:55.

They seem untrustworthy. I think a lot of people our age are rdally

:49:56.:50:00.

cynical. We do not trust thd politicians.

:50:01.:50:08.

Hearing the fact that, as a result, people are worse off than they were

:50:09.:50:13.

before is breeding mistrust in not believing in people. When you look

:50:14.:50:18.

at the Budget that came out, it was focused on the older generation

:50:19.:50:22.

So, I think from the point of view of our generation, we listen when

:50:23.:50:28.

people say the idea is that they will put forward. We hear that we

:50:29.:50:34.

are not being included. Some of the MPs are on Twitter, but

:50:35.:50:41.

not any of my local MPs. So they are not being creative in making

:50:42.:50:44.

themselves relevant. It seemed to be more teachers than

:50:45.:50:51.

students who came to hear the Home Secretary talking about apathy. He

:50:52.:50:54.

said it was the fault of thd Coalition Government. Peopld say

:50:55.:51:02.

that maybe we should have compulsory voting like in Australia, btt then

:51:03.:51:07.

they say that a lot of people vote with their feet. When there is a

:51:08.:51:11.

coalition, people are concerned about what change we shall get. I

:51:12.:51:17.

don't want is to have a coalition again. Nobody knows what thdy will

:51:18.:51:22.

get. When they get it, it is not what they voted for.

:51:23.:51:30.

So how do you in gauge the xoung and the poor people? I think we have got

:51:31.:51:38.

to speaking a language that people understand, use more social media.

:51:39.:51:42.

One of the biggest turnout hs that we had was in 1950 and that was not

:51:43.:51:49.

an exciting election, but are `` mattered. People have to know that

:51:50.:51:55.

when they vote, it matters. This is a polling station lhke you

:51:56.:51:59.

have never seen before. There is a tablet on which you can cast your

:52:00.:52:04.

vote. And why not have a chocolate while you are in the blues? But even

:52:05.:52:12.

here, they think that the ttrnout will store below. `` while xou are

:52:13.:52:17.

in the voting booth. There hs the fear that people may never vote if

:52:18.:52:24.

they do not vote now. Here is the vice president of

:52:25.:52:30.

education for the student union White can students not be bothered

:52:31.:52:39.

to vote? In any election? In general elections, I think we are

:52:40.:52:45.

in a negative feedback loop. Young people are not voting, so the things

:52:46.:52:53.

that matter to them are not taken seriously. It is important to look

:52:54.:52:56.

at the first years of this Parliament, people raised the

:52:57.:53:03.

university fees and took aw`y the education maintenance allow`nce

:53:04.:53:08.

Why are they not angry and protesting? There are not a

:53:09.:53:14.

political party who are putting forward things that appeal to young

:53:15.:53:19.

people. They do not offer a different vision.

:53:20.:53:27.

Students in Bristol, people have a very nice life. Is it that they have

:53:28.:53:33.

never had it so good and thdy do not feel they need to vote? No, I think

:53:34.:53:39.

it is a conscious decision. People look at the politicians and ask if

:53:40.:53:45.

they represent them. They do not come up with anything at all.

:53:46.:53:50.

You concerned that young people are not interested in politics? I am a

:53:51.:53:58.

bad person to ask, because H never got involved in politics until later

:53:59.:54:04.

in life. It was when I was running a factory and we had nine different

:54:05.:54:09.

unions trying to run the factory and having an extremely difficult time.

:54:10.:54:13.

That was the big issue of the time and that is why I opt into politics.

:54:14.:54:18.

I think that different issuds bring people in at different times. It is

:54:19.:54:23.

nice if people do get involved, but I do not think it is new.

:54:24.:54:27.

It is something that has bedn very important for me during the years

:54:28.:54:33.

that I have been an MP, is being as accessible at as I can with the

:54:34.:54:40.

people who want to contact le. I talk to people on Twitter and on

:54:41.:54:43.

Facebook, asking them what hs on their mind.

:54:44.:54:49.

There is an issue with the Liberal Democrats, with students, students

:54:50.:54:55.

who perhaps were trying to vote against student fees, you got into

:54:56.:55:01.

power and you did do it. So what is the point? I think that if we had

:55:02.:55:05.

our time again, we would do things differently. One of the points that

:55:06.:55:15.

David Blunkett made was abott apathy and communication. Parties need to

:55:16.:55:19.

work together to go into thd elections, saying what they will do

:55:20.:55:25.

and what they will stick to. You have to do that before the dlection.

:55:26.:55:34.

I still don't think that anx of the political parties at the molent are

:55:35.:55:38.

really putting forward a strong offer for young people.

:55:39.:55:43.

So why would they not be interested in young people? This is wh`t I mean

:55:44.:55:49.

about a negative feedback loop. Because young people are not voting,

:55:50.:55:54.

there is almost a cynical calculation that the people that you

:55:55.:55:58.

need to focus policy on are not young people.

:55:59.:56:01.

Who are getting all the bendfits? The old people? I think olddr people

:56:02.:56:08.

are being looked after bettdr than younger people and I think people

:56:09.:56:13.

who own property and are more likely to vote for the government.

:56:14.:56:20.

Yes, when you say not making a good offer for young people, the most

:56:21.:56:24.

important thing for peoples in university is that they will have

:56:25.:56:30.

the possibility of a job. Is he right when you say th`t

:56:31.:56:34.

politicians are more interested in older people? It is not for older

:56:35.:56:39.

people that we have to turn the economy around. There are now

:56:40.:56:45.

starting to be far more job opportunities. You are the future

:56:46.:56:48.

and we have to turn that cotntry around will stop good thing is,

:56:49.:56:54.

although it is not offered to young people, about a student grants, the

:56:55.:56:59.

key thing is that what you `re looking and hoping for is the chance

:57:00.:57:04.

of a good opportunity career in the future. That is what we havd to do

:57:05.:57:09.

for all your colleagues and young people in this country. Most

:57:10.:57:12.

importantly, it is starting to happen.

:57:13.:57:19.

Now we will look back at thd political week in 60 seconds.

:57:20.:57:24.

On Thursday, the funeral was held for one of the West's polithcal

:57:25.:57:27.

giants. Hundreds gathered to remember Tony Benn, who served as

:57:28.:57:33.

Bristol MP for over 30 years. The Red Flag was played as his coffin

:57:34.:57:39.

left the church. On last week's programme, wd

:57:40.:57:42.

reported on rumours that thd government would relax its ban on

:57:43.:57:45.

fox hunting. It came from f`rmers whose land was being attackdd by

:57:46.:57:53.

hunters. `` attacked by foxds. This week, they got the answer. That

:57:54.:57:58.

letter has been received and has been considered, but I regrdt to say

:57:59.:58:02.

that I don't think there will be government agreement to go forward.

:58:03.:58:05.

This empty and expensive buhlding in Taunton may finally have a tenant.

:58:06.:58:08.

The regional fire control cdntre was built in 2007, but never usdd. A

:58:09.:58:15.

deal is being struck to rent it out. And yesterday, the wedding bells

:58:16.:58:18.

finally rang out for this h`ppy couple. They were the first in

:58:19.:58:21.

Bristol to tie the knot aftdr the law was changed to allow sale`sex

:58:22.:58:30.

marriage. Yesterday was quite a day for gay

:58:31.:58:38.

weddings. Would you go to a gay wedding if you

:58:39.:58:46.

were invited? Only if they were close friends. We have all had

:58:47.:58:51.

difficulties over this issud. I would not refuse, but I havd never

:58:52.:59:00.

been introduced yesterday. `` I would not be very enthtsiasm.

:59:01.:59:10.

And what about you? You votdd in favour. I think that we will accept

:59:11.:59:20.

that marriage is equal and that two people who love each other should be

:59:21.:59:26.

able to call it marriage. Next week, we will hear abott how

:59:27.:59:30.

businesses feel about leaving Europe. For now, it is back to

:59:31.:59:33.

London. boundaries. Sorry, run out of time.

:59:34.:59:35.

Thanks very much indeed. Andrew back to you.

:59:36.:59:43.

Now let's get more from our political panel. If the BNP

:59:44.:59:53.

finished? They were never spectacularly successful to begin

:59:54.:59:56.

with but one of my childhood memories was a huge fuss in London

:59:57.:59:59.

about the fact that they won a few council seat on the Isle of dogs

:00:00.:00:03.

back in 1993. That was enough to cause a panic. As if they are

:00:04.:00:06.

falling from a great tit and I think the big difference with the National

:00:07.:00:10.

front in France is that they are building on decades of successful

:00:11.:00:13.

that they finished second in the presence of elections in 2002, I

:00:14.:00:18.

think. And, even in the 60s, they were versions of their politics So

:00:19.:00:23.

they are building on a lot whereas the BNP are working with incredibly

:00:24.:00:32.

few raw materials in this country. It is interesting that the BNP does

:00:33.:00:36.

seem to be in decline in terms of its membership and financially, but

:00:37.:00:43.

in France, the far right party, not as far right as the BNP, but pretty

:00:44.:00:47.

far right, will probably do well in the second round of the French local

:00:48.:00:53.

elections. You could say the same about Golden Dawn in Greece. Parties

:00:54.:00:59.

prosper when the picture is pre-rolled for them. If mainstream

:01:00.:01:03.

parties talk endlessly about immigration, saying you cannot get a

:01:04.:01:07.

council house because it has gone to an immigrant instead of saying it is

:01:08.:01:10.

because there are not enough council houses, that creates the conditions

:01:11.:01:14.

in which the far right can thrive. We are lucky that all the members of

:01:15.:01:19.

the BNP fell out with each other. As extreme members of the far right and

:01:20.:01:26.

left do. You can see that with the comedian in France, he has got a lot

:01:27.:01:31.

of support from people on the left as well. I asked Simon Derby was

:01:32.:01:39.

here victim of a pincer movement that UKIP were taken away voters and

:01:40.:01:47.

EDL has captured the Street protest. Yes, and Giles still not mention

:01:48.:01:54.

that the Labour Party has got its act together. They got the act

:01:55.:01:59.

together in Dagenham. Margaret Hodge and Jon Cruddas did a very good job.

:02:00.:02:05.

I think UKIP would say, not a racist party but they are picking up votes

:02:06.:02:09.

from people who would once have voted BNP. But it is interesting the

:02:10.:02:12.

difference between Britain and France. Why is it that the Front

:02:13.:02:19.

Nationale came second in 2002 when they are not far right? I think they

:02:20.:02:28.

were on a five-year cycle because the next election was 2007. 200

:02:29.:02:34.

they came second when Jean-Marie Le Pen came second. They are not as far

:02:35.:02:48.

right as the BNP. Marine has put them -- cleaned them up a bit.

:02:49.:02:52.

Diplomatically there is a much harder vote which spreads further

:02:53.:02:56.

across the electorate in France than there is in this country. This is a

:02:57.:03:09.

much more tolerant country. If Marine Le Pen does well today, she

:03:10.:03:15.

will not win that many because the centre-right and centre-left will

:03:16.:03:18.

always gang up against terror in the second round, but it sets the tone

:03:19.:03:25.

for the European elections. It does and for the next French presidential

:03:26.:03:30.

election as well. I think what she's doing masterfully is combining a far

:03:31.:03:34.

right politics with what you might call a far left economic politics.

:03:35.:03:38.

She's not just picking up votes from xenophobes, she is picking up votes

:03:39.:03:42.

from who feel victimised from globalisation. They are people who

:03:43.:03:48.

would be voting for socialists but are put off by the current

:03:49.:03:52.

president. That is what I do not think the British far right parties

:03:53.:03:57.

have been able to do. You sort Simon Derby try to tell you that the BNP

:03:58.:04:01.

are not far right party. I think he was going to say if you look at

:04:02.:04:05.

issues of protectionism, standing up against globalisation, they are

:04:06.:04:11.

quite statist. That is where the phrase National Socialist comes

:04:12.:04:16.

from. That is why a little bit of electoral success is often a killer

:04:17.:04:20.

for far right parties. They get a few council seats and then they are

:04:21.:04:25.

rubbish. They are not getting people's bins collected so they

:04:26.:04:28.

become part of the system that people were voting against in the

:04:29.:04:33.

first place. Lets go on to the Labour Party. If you are a Labour

:04:34.:04:37.

Party supporter and you want to be cheered up, you pick up the Sunday

:04:38.:04:41.

Times where you see a poll where the leader is up to seven points. If you

:04:42.:04:46.

are Tory Lib Dem and you want to be cheered up, you pick up the

:04:47.:04:51.

Observer, the left-wing paper, where the Labour leader is still 1%. I

:04:52.:04:56.

have read in the paper that there is quite a lot of of the record

:04:57.:05:00.

briefings going on at the top of the Labour Party. Give us a sense of the

:05:01.:05:06.

mood. Clearly, they are unsettled. One pol looks OK but there has been

:05:07.:05:13.

a run of polls where there is a lead over the Tories which is closing.

:05:14.:05:20.

There are worrying number of people who are what are called the 35s and

:05:21.:05:27.

they are people who thought all the Labour Party needs to do is sit

:05:28.:05:31.

still because there are a number of Liberal Democrat voters who hate the

:05:32.:05:34.

coalition. Because the Conservatives did not get through the boundary

:05:35.:05:40.

changes they needed to win, we can sit tight and it will all be fine.

:05:41.:05:43.

What a few wise old heads are concerned about is they feel this

:05:44.:05:50.

has a feel of 1987 about it when the Labour Party was united. They had a

:05:51.:05:54.

very good leader. The leader was impressive, the party was united and

:05:55.:05:59.

then what happened? They met the British people and an election. The

:06:00.:06:04.

British people said, terribly sorry, you are not occupying the party

:06:05.:06:07.

political territory where we will vote for you. There are some people

:06:08.:06:13.

from the Blair era who say it feels a bit complacent and there may be a

:06:14.:06:16.

bit of a shock when they meet the voters. We talk about people being

:06:17.:06:22.

unsettled but Ed Miliband is not unsettled. His defining

:06:23.:06:27.

characteristic is you might call it steadiness or you might call it a

:06:28.:06:31.

lack of agility. He could not respond to the pension stuff in the

:06:32.:06:35.

budget which was thrown at him. But he's very good at separating the

:06:36.:06:38.

signal from the noise. They may think this will all change in me.

:06:39.:06:42.

The Tories may be on the back foot after the European elections. He has

:06:43.:06:48.

the ability to set the political weather. He did it with the price

:06:49.:06:54.

freeze. There is no doubt that Mr Davey would not be referring these

:06:55.:06:58.

energy companies to the competition authorities if it had not been for

:06:59.:07:02.

that speech by the Labour leader. And we read today he has come up

:07:03.:07:05.

with another policy which will be attention grabbing to cut student

:07:06.:07:12.

tuition fees. It is easy to forget that before he announced the price

:07:13.:07:15.

freeze he was in as much vertical trouble as he is now. I think the

:07:16.:07:19.

Labour poll lead will expand up to five or 6% by the summer, assuming

:07:20.:07:26.

the Tories do badly. The question is, is five or 6% enough? Nick

:07:27.:07:34.

through the analogy with 1987. This reminds me of the Conservatives in

:07:35.:07:39.

2009/10. You have a steadily sinking poll lead, differences in what

:07:40.:07:45.

campaign they should be running and personal animosity behind the

:07:46.:07:49.

scenes. It led to them throwing away an election which seemed to be

:07:50.:07:54.

winnable. There is an important difference with the 1980s which was

:07:55.:07:58.

because you did not know when the election would be. Will it be in 87

:07:59.:08:04.

or 88? They do not need to make up their mind until next year. What

:08:05.:08:07.

they are telling the pollsters now, we do not like this government

:08:08.:08:11.

because of course, you do not like the government. But next January or

:08:12.:08:15.

February they will be making up their minds. Is there a lot of

:08:16.:08:19.

animosity among the leading Labour figures behind-the-scenes? It must

:08:20.:08:25.

be personal or tactical because there are not big ideological

:08:26.:08:29.

differences between them, is there? Yes and no. What is striking is how

:08:30.:08:35.

little support Miliband gets from the shadow cabinet. He does not have

:08:36.:08:40.

outriders. That has been a continuous theme. Said he feels he

:08:41.:08:45.

is on his own? That they feel they do not get support from him. There

:08:46.:08:50.

was a column by Jenni Russell saying he is distant and detached. And

:08:51.:08:56.

Andrew Walmsley touched on this in the Observer. One of the divisions

:08:57.:09:04.

is Ed versus Ed. There is a terrible structural problem between those

:09:05.:09:09.

two. It is a real problem. Ed Miliband believes Ed Balls has not

:09:10.:09:12.

done enough to get economic red ability. Ed Balls believes Ed

:09:13.:09:17.

Miliband is making airy fairy speeches and it will not cut with

:09:18.:09:22.

the electorate. Neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Miller band took part in the

:09:23.:09:26.

debate which happened earlier this week between the Lib Dems and UKIP.

:09:27.:09:31.

We have got another one coming up on the BBC on Wednesday night. Let s

:09:32.:09:35.

remind ourselves of what happened in last week's debate.

:09:36.:09:43.

I will ask Nick to open the batting. We are better off in Europe...

:09:44.:09:51.

Frankly not working any more. A referendum on Europe. I agree with

:09:52.:09:58.

you. I agree with you. If you can read the small print. Pull up the

:09:59.:10:07.

drawbridge, pool drawbridge up. . We have 485 million people... It is

:10:08.:10:13.

simply not true! Not true. Not true. Not true. Identical with Nick. I

:10:14.:10:20.

don't agree with Nick. Based on facts, facts, the facts, facts, the

:10:21.:10:26.

facts... Thank God we did not listen to you. The food is getting better

:10:27.:10:32.

here. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. You have never had a proper job. Great

:10:33.:10:42.

not little England. Good night. I think it is seven o'clock BBC Two.

:10:43.:10:47.

Helen, what was the outcome of that and how do we mark our card for this

:10:48.:10:53.

week? It was not a great time for pundits. Everybody called the debate

:10:54.:10:57.

for Nick and then they said actually, we think it has gone the

:10:58.:11:04.

other way. Consensus emerged later on that Nick Clegg made a difficult

:11:05.:11:08.

argument. I think the most important thing Nigel Farage said was he

:11:09.:11:12.

distinguished out the immigration policy by saying we're not just

:11:13.:11:16.

closing day over, we want people to come, we just do not want mass EU

:11:17.:11:20.

immigration. That is an important thing for him to say to get away

:11:21.:11:25.

from the echoes of the far right. I suspect Nick Clegg will not ask us

:11:26.:11:30.

to read the small print. That was 11 turn he took. It compounded his

:11:31.:11:36.

reputation for being sneaky. I slightly disagree about the pundits.

:11:37.:11:40.

I say this as someone who thought far it would win. -- Nigel Farage

:11:41.:11:46.

would win. The fact that the public disagree with you and the public

:11:47.:11:50.

favoured Nigel Farage does not mean the public were wrong. The question

:11:51.:11:59.

is, who is going to tune in for the second one? What is the answer to

:12:00.:12:05.

that? Phil Collins argument is a man who is on 8% is fantastic. It is a

:12:06.:12:11.

binary choice in this debate. Clearly they need to brush up on

:12:12.:12:15.

opposite areas. Nigel Farage needs to brush up on facts and Nick Clegg

:12:16.:12:18.

needs to brush up on the motions because he did not connect very

:12:19.:12:23.

well. Where Nick Clegg may go after Nigel Farage is when the -- when he

:12:24.:12:29.

said the EU has blood on its hands with Ukraine. He then came back to

:12:30.:12:34.

talk about the vanity of EU foreign policy and said European Union had

:12:35.:12:36.

made what was going on in Syria worse. It is one thing to say I do

:12:37.:12:42.

not think the UK should be part of the joint European foreign policy,

:12:43.:12:45.

it is part of another thing to say that Europe which will act with or

:12:46.:12:49.

without the UK is responsible for blood on the streets of Kiev and

:12:50.:12:52.

also responsible for exacerbating the Civil War in Syria. Maybe an

:12:53.:12:58.

hour is too long for Nigel Farage's shtick? That may be the case but

:12:59.:13:05.

Nick Clegg has precedence. He does that show and he has had to deal

:13:06.:13:09.

with the worst thing with dealing with what is thrown at him so he has

:13:10.:13:14.

honed his view consistently. We will see what happens in part two.

:13:15.:13:18.

That's all for this week. The Daily Politics is on BBC Two at lunchtime

:13:19.:13:22.

every day this week. I'll be here next week at the usual time of 1

:13:23.:13:26.

o'clock. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:27.:13:33.

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