18/05/2014 Sunday Politics West


Andrew Neil and David Garmston with the latest political news. Ahead of the local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to Sajid Javid, Simon Hughes and Hilary Benn.

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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until


election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader


on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections


on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls


are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a


difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised


an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the


It is the final countdown for Europe campaign trail, he has been asking


It is the final countdown for Europe as politicians scrap over a possible


referendum. elections, and the 50th anniversary


of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,


with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,


Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for


everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of


Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big


one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local


elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But


pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political


commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is


at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European


Parliament elections. These local results should be known


by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the


European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let


it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced


until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member


states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this


morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,


and the general election is still wide open - we really are in


uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,


because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst


those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times


showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know


that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the


major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP


success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has


been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party


is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next


week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders


who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick


Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or


four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he


should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral


force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a


couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one


who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr


Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.


The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his


own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the


Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly


at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England


has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England


now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what


the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,


it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections


began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they


finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish


runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on


something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,


France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first


past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a


situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the


largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of


seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two


parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's


speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP


claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on


Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become


a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a


grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are


going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this


earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we


will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election


manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and


putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring


Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of


power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a


referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up


party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies


created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them


this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more


robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other


three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got


nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this


week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or


Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on


all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been


involved in some kind of racist sexist or homophobic incident. I am


not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably


needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any


worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we


do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they


know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to


far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a


one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the


headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a


huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople


across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably


the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic


leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get


our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many


more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers.


more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We


are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by


Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between


television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how


much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like


the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in


conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a


joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote


UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party


line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...


On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is


obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a


manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have


put forward a lot of positive -- 2010 and going back on it. We have


put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government


level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,


But when it comes to individual local issues, say, a particular


development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will


vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the


borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out


really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians


to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of


the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a


referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then


happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first


time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am


not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come


out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But


have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But


certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world


economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be


able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is


what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would


be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,


sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and


valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that


referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people


's... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.


70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it


would not be 1975, then? Andrew, concerned about immigration. So it


would not be 1975, then? Andrew it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it


sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is


better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds


like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all


manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our


sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if


a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am


surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in


next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different


from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they


being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being


trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I


do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian


approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were


learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British


economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out


how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24


hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours


in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make


up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in


Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local


and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at


eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and


producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm


welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.


One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got


Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and


that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but


it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members


for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top


Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in


traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in


time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to


Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not


even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We


will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the


Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the


Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses


upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a


referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.


I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about


elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at


our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in


Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from


chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was


boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just


hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft


their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who


live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed


Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls


lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who


is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're


flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right


place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning


as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said


the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If


he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not


forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40


minutes to get having elections too. I have 40


212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,


12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.


Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our


studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in


Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,


looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest


group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are


recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only


party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people


over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands


synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why


should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the


reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are


stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives


are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green


belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed


the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and


saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that


many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the


polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are


looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that


we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society


works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the


limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want


all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where


would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?


Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into


a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for


demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French


nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across


Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of


we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is


owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the


big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French


nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,


going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government


proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two


plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.


We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more


seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined


strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's


throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise


council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by


other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at


the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor


numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in


Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are


the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of


Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a


debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have


that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city


should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be


brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride


in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the


people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in


Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do


most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.


Probably a good move. Thank you. Newcastle and many areas in between.


Probably a good move. Thank you I'm Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm


joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and


Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on


the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.


Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would


like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.


Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European


elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning


the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,


you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation


from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are


concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage


only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the


interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season


change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member


states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to


children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to


charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a


flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will


continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward


policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will


look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters


decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP


question is that they get support because they have never been in


power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get


into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is


that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the


case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made


in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14


out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously


disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the


European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,


it will show that people don't really trust your promise about


European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.


What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal


Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European


treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European


budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted


against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying


more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout


fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same


energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British


people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a


liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against


him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost


consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,


but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the


problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom


tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work


for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.


So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be


voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David


Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is


recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have


been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British


politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit


everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this


country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and


we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours


contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse


your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It


may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the


European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people


understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on


Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In


terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my


community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.


Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in


office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour


have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.


One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that


they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a


government have delivered more affordable housing in this


Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next


three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall


housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the


Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.


Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your


last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting


UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said


that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a


result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in


the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure


you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what


is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on


free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with


the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about


change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a


referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should


get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future


lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which


wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to


the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.


What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has


been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime


Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy


prices, more childcare, policies which directly address


prices, more childcare, policies which people face. I think the


public will realise that. which people face. I think the


offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used


to be in favour of a referendum We to be in favour of a referendum? We


are in favour, we voted for one we are in favour, we voted for one, we


have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between


Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a


referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously


want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it


would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until


there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and


then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to


leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural


partners with the Conservatives, but partners with the Conservatives but


we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the


future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built


our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want


artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out


of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being


positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep


absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said


that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British


withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a


successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am


very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with


confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he


said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the


party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you


agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and


then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a


line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with


Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay


in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am


not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every


question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!


I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at


our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn


what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems


towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at


sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,


we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the


Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.


It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of


powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we


believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for


economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our


relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday


will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything


you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I


am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the


dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that


Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth


is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of


a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one


more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection


with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should


vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just


that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot


more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at


Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not


been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that


is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible


of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of


the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.


We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -


he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday


Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for


This is Sunday Politics herd in the Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming


This is Sunday Politics here in the glorious West Country. Bracd


glorious West Country. Brace yourselves as this is our l`st show


yourselves as this is our last show before the voting begins in a big


European contest. It may lack the glitz and glamour, and garish


costumes of Eurovision. And there are no bearded ladies as far as we


know. Which parties in the south`west will triumph and which


ones will get nil points? With me ones will get nil points? With me


are members of the four parties who won seats in the West since we


joined in the 1970s. They are William Dartmouth of UKIP. Good


morning. The Conservative Ashley Fox. Graham Watson for the Liberal


Democrats and the Glyn Ford from Labour. Later we will also hear from


the Green party who just missed out on a seat the last time arotnd. Let


us start by talking about a topic never far from the headlines and


that is immigration. Ashley Fox are that is immigration. Ashley Fox, are


you relaxed about the number of migrants coming from the rest


Europe. I support the freedom of movement of labour and I am


comfortable for Europeans to come here who want to make a


contribution. They want to work and want to pay tax. What the government


has done is change the rules so that people cannot come here and claim


benefits. Or use the NHS without making a contribution. Everxthing is


fine now? We have to acknowledge that it is a real concern about the


volume of immigrants who have came to this country since 2004. And as I


think the Labour Party accept now, Jack Straw does, it was a


spectacular mistake. The reason Jack Straw does, it was a


spectacular mistake. The re`son that spectacular mistake. The re`son that


we have an issue with immigration no is that because of the mistakes the


Labour Party made in 2004. Glyn Ford from Labour Party, immigrants are


arriving in the West Countrx at a rate of about 1000 per week. This


was at the height of the movement. Do you accept that was a mistake


too? I accept that we should have done more. It is very clear that


communities were suffering problems from the migrants coming in. I was


in favour of them coming but I was not in favour of putting anx


not in favour of putting any resources that would help them


cope. The UK Government, our government at the time, was actually


benefiting from the taxes that they were paying. It should've been


were paying. It should've bden alleviating the problems that


alleviating the problems th`t actually existed. Should you reduce


the numbers further? We havd a actually existed. Should yot reduce


the numbers further? We have a scare the numbers further? We havd a scare


story this time around about how we're going to be flooded whth the


we're going to be flooded with the Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns


out that more people have ldft Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns


out that more people have left the out that more people have left the


UK. There were problems bec`use out that more people have ldft the


UK. There were problems bec`use we were opening up Britain and


Ireland, and Sweden, who were the only countries who allowed free


movement in 2004. Two new member states coming in at the momdnt


movement in 2004. Two new mdmber states coming in at the moment that


are in comparatively smaller. The same problem does not exist. I have


just came back from Gibralt`r. You have got areas of Spain that are


majority British and German. It goes both ways. Let us bring in Graham


Watson. You are from the most pro`European party, I guess. Do you


accept that migration has any downsides? Of course there's a


problem of pressure on servhces and the government has to be able to be


sure that we are able to provide the services that the people nedd.


services that the people need. Doctors, dentists, school places or


what ever. I am from the most pro`British party in the sense that


I believe in the membership of the European Union and that is essential


for the British economy. Thd European Union and that is dssential


for the British economy. The freedom for the British economy. Thd freedom


of movement for Labour is important of movement for Labour is ilportant


for that. The reason that so many people came was that there were jobs


to be done. We had a booming economy. I asked if there wdre any


economy. I asked if there were any downsides to it? Not if you are an


employer in the South West. In the town where I live we have got a


slaughterhouse. It employs just over 300 people. Most of them are


immigrants. If we did not h`ve 300 people. Most of them ard


immigrants. If we did not have them immigrants. If we did not have them


then we would not be able to run that slaughterhouse. They would not


staff your care homes in the staff your care homes in thd


south`west. We were warned about staff your care homes in the


south`west. We were warned `bout the south`west. We were warned `bout the


tens of thousands of Romanians south`west. We were warned about the


tens of thousands of Romani`ns and tens of thousands of Romanians and


Bulgarians that would be he`ding our way. That has not happened. It was


scaremongering. Could I advise you of the context, the context is that


immigration is a matter of great public concern and the contdxt


immigration is a matter of great public concern and the context of


public concern and the contdxt of that concern is that from 1997


public concern and the context of that concern is that from 1897 to


that concern is that from 1997 to 2010 according to the Institute for


Statistics... This is the context. The other context is this. The


Conservative Party general election Conservative Party general election


manifesto promised to reducd manifesto promised to reducd


immigration to tens of thousands. I quote, that is what it says. And


that is where we have succedded That is where you have not


succeeded. You know that perfectly well. The fact of the matter is that


as long as we remain in the European Union over 450 million people have


the absolute right to work `nd settle here. I very rarely praise


the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to the


the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to thd British


Party have apologised to the British people to their mishandling of when


the countries joined in 2004. The Conservative Party should apologise


for not having a credible policy on immigration. We simply do not know


what it is. Would you apologise for saying that 29 million Romanians and


Bulgarians may come? We nevdr saying that 29 million Romanians and


Bulgarians may come? We nevdr said that. They pointed out that in


January first this year, 25 million Romanians and Bulgarians... I think


it is about 27 million. Thex were it is about 27 million. They were


eligible to come to Europe. Migration Watch which is thd most


Migration Watch which is the most reputable producer of immigration


statistics, far more than the British government have estimated


British government have esthmated that 50,000 per year would come. The


context is what has happened since 1997. There is a further very


important point. Anybody who raises it gets abused. Gordon Brown abused


Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abusdd. It


Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abused. It is


been abused and we get abusdd. It is a concern of the British people and


it is high time that this abuse stopped. The answer to my qtestion


stopped. The answer to my question about whether you had apologised for


stating the 29 million people may come... We never said that. I will


not apologise for what was not said. We said that 29 million people


were eligible. You must know the difference, if you are a clever


chap. You must know the difference. Hang on there. European elections do


not often manage to excite too many voters but this time it may be


different. The returning officer for the south`west has reported a surge


in the number of people applying for postal votes. Some people think it


is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about thd cost


is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about the cost of


people are unhappy about thd cost of being in the EU. We have been


being in the EU. We have bedn looking at those figures.


They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers here


They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers hdre know


the value of Europe. It gives over the value of Europe. It gives over


40% of its budget to agriculture, much of it on subsidy payments. ?200


or ?300 but you cannot do without or ?300 but you cannot do whthout


it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the gener`l


it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the general public


for the subsidies the gener`l public would not get cheap food. If the


food had to be produced without the subsidies then it would be tproar.


So what is the price tag for staying in this club? We pay in 13 billion


euros per year. We get back six billion euros and the cost to the


nation works out at about ?000 per nation works out at about ?000 per


person. Business groups likd the CBI say that benefits like access to a


single market are worth at least ten times that outlay. For a broader


view we head into town. On first sound, nearby Froome could be


France. After laying out our stall with boxes in the patriotic stripes


the Entente Cordiale is soon broken. Out. Definitely. Why are yot going


out? Because we no longer rule our out? Because we no longer rule our


country. There is too many people saying to this do that and we cannot


do it ourselves. We have to get out. It costs us far too much money. We


do not have control over who can come in and out of the country and I


think we would be better off without all those unelected bureaucrats who


are trying to tell us what to do. Any ball? Why are you for in? We


would become a little, tired, ailing country and we would be backward.


Lots of different policies for all those little places does not make


sense. I think it is utterlx sense. I think it is utterlx


ridiculous to say go out, when we are out. For all sorts of reasons,


economic, cultural and soci`l, economic, cultural and social,


environmental. The whole galut. economic, cultural and soci`l,


environmental. The whole galut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, UKIP!


environmental. The whole gamut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, TKIP In


the end Whether in or out many people still


wanted the option to choose. Something which still causes the


parties to feud. We said we would have a referendum


if there was any change in the terms of the treaty. We have made a few


changes. I think it is very clear that the people of Britain do not


have a referendum any time that things have stayed the same. We not


having a referendum on bringing back hanging. That was decided. A


hanging. That was decided. @ referendum that there was


significant treaty changes `nd referendum that there was


significant treaty changes and it significant treaty changes and it


should be an in and out refdrendum. should be an in and out refdrendum.


Graham Watson, do you agree with our close union? Evan, in and end. I


think countries should coopdrate close union? Evan, in and end. I


think countries should cooperate in think countries should coopdrate in


areas where they think it is sensible to cooperate. Why not if it


is in their interest to do so. Do you have to be in a union to


cooperate? No, you do not have to be cooperate? No, you do not h`ve to be


in a union but it is much easier to in a union but it is much easier to


do so. You have different bodies working together to frame


legislation that everybody should abide by. My party favours a


referendum and we believe they should've been one on the Lisbon


should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there


should've been one on the Lisbon Treaty. We argue that if thdre is


should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there is a


new treaty coming on in the should be a referendum for the British


people to decide if they want accept it. The Conservatives have promised


a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we belidve


a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we believe you


that you see now that you whll deliver. Why should we belidve you


that you see now that you will offer that you see now that you will offer


is one? I am afraid you are wrong. We did not promise a referendum, we


We did not promise a referendum we promise to have won if we came to


promise to have won if we c`me to power and the Lisbon Treaty had not


been ratified. I am afraid that you misquoted David Cameron. Thd Labour


misquoted David Cameron. The Labour Party under Gordon Brown ratified


the treaty without holding ` the treaty without holding `


referendum. Our position is that Brussels has got too much power so


we want to renegotiate our terms of membership to take power back from


Brussels to Britain. When that negotiation is complete, we will


hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay hn


hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay in a


reformed EU. What is your bottom line? No negotiator would reveal his


bottom line. We have promisdd that bottom line. We have promised that


referendum in any event. If the negotiations fail, that refdrendum


negotiations fail, that referendum will take place anyway at the end of


2017. David Cameron said th`t he 2017. David Cameron said th`t he


would go, would you go too? David Cameron has said that he would not


be Prime Minister of the government that wasn't committed. I am not an


MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was


not delivered would you go? It is not a question for MEPs to hold that


referendum. It is for Westmhnster. referendum. It is for Westmhnster.


You want out. Your position is very clear. It is crystal clear. But you


are not in a position to offer anything. You could get all the


seats in the south`west and nothing The only people who are offdring a


referendum are the Conservative Party. I point out that the Liberal


Democrats had a three line whip voting against the referendtm


although they promised that in the general election. The Labour Party


position is very unclear but I think it means no if we try to understand


what Mr Ford said. I point out to Ashley Fox that the one referendum


Ashley Fox that the one refdrendum that we did have in 1975 took place


after we had entered the colmon market in 1973, after the treaty had


been ratified. The best way for somebody who wants a referendum to


hold the three major parties, the establishment parties to their


establishment parties to thdir promises, is to vote UKIP. I have


promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question!


promises, is to vote UKIP. I have just answered that question It


promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question! It is


just answered that question It is to stop what happened before.


just answered that question! It is to stop what happened beford. Mr


to stop what happened before. Mr Cameron broke his promise. Lr Clegg


Cameron broke his promise. Mr Clegg broke his promise. Mr Milib`nd never


made a promise. Who gave as the referendum in 1975, can you remind


me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg


admirer of Harold Wilson and I am a great admirer of Tony Benn. I would


point out that the number one Labour candidate as an official of the


Unite union sits in Tony Benn house and Tony Benn was a very


distinguished Bristol MP for 30 years. To all of the people who work


in this constituency in Airbus, in Honda, in Agusta Westland, all the


Honda, in Agusta Westland, `ll the big companies who rely on foreign


investment and on being in the European Union, are you going to put


all those jobs at risk? I al very glad that you have raised that. Are


you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the Europe`n


you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the European Union?


cease if we left the Europe`n Union? Are you claiming that all foreign


investment would cease? I would remind you that China alone sold 290


million euros worth of goods to businesses in the European Union in


2012. A very small downturn in trade would have a major effect on jobs in


this constituency. It would make absolutely no difference at all.


Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the Europe`n


Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the European Union


Withdrawing from the Europe`n Union would have absolutely no impact, you


would have absolutely no impact you could argue it would be beneficial,


you could argue it would have a detrimental impact, the verx notion


that you do something as fundamental as that vote changing anything is


absolutely ridiculous. We h`ve to move on.


Voting in the EU is like `` is unlike any other election as it is


done on a proportional basis that will help smaller parties like


UKIP. Last thing the Green party nearly won the seat.


A different electoral system nearly won the seat.


A different electoral systel ushered A different electoral systel ushered


in a new era in British polhtics. The Green party got their first


members are elected. One decade later and the potential for smaller


parties was well`known. The ballot party given choice of `` the ballot


gave a choice of 17 parties. There was disappointment for the Green


party who narrowly missed ott. was disappointment for the Green


party who narrowly missed out. This time it is different and thd choice


is less, eat on the ballot paper. The Green party have got a new


target. They set their sights on the Liberal Democrats. It gives you a


lot of ammunition should yot need Liberal Democrats. It gives you a


lot of ammunition should you need it lot of ammunition should yot need it


to see how fast this government, to see how fast this governlent


including the Lib Dems... They hope to win over voters who are


pro`Europe but anti`coalition government. The selections have


always been beneficial for the Green party because they are based on a


proportional representation system. It is easier for the Green party to


get the opinions across and not worry about first past the post. A


worry about first past the post A good day for the Green party could


be a bad day for the Liberal Democrats.


Along with the game party, there are the other parties in the running for


your vote. Independence from Europe, the British National party, and the


English Democrats. You can see all pitches from those parties on the


points West Facebook page. What are your views on wind


turbines? I am opposed to them. Why have you given over some of your


land and another part of thd party land and another part of the party


to a relative who has allowed them to be built. It is not my l`nd. It


to be built. It is not my land. It is not my application and I will not


derive any financial benefit from it. The land was transferred some


years ago. Does that make you hypocritical? No. I have derived no


financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who hs


financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who is not in


my immediate family. It is not my wife or son. What was the value of


wife or son. What was the v`lue of the land that you give away? At the


time wish... At the time, not a huge amount. Did you know that that land


may be used as a wind farm? No. Are you embarrassed about it? I am


embarrassed on behalf of thd BBC embarrassed on behalf of the BBC


that as a public service broadcaster that we have got an election on


Thursday on the European question Thursday on the European question


and this is the second BBC programme that is devoted time to what is a


known issue. It is a legitilate question. I do not think so, not


from a public service broadcaster. If you say in public that you do not


approve of wind farms. This was years ago. You are still taking up


the very little time that we have years ago. You are still taking up


the very little time that wd have to the very little time that wd have to


discuss the European question. I do not be cost `` discuss the cost of


European regulation that was omitted from the package? Why cannot we


discussed the fact that when they are in the European Union that


Britain could not saying its own trade agreements. You were beaten


into fourth place last time. Fifth place. It was extremely


disappointing. It was at the place. It was extremely


disappointing. It was at thd height disappointing. It was at thd height


of the opposition to the Labour government and we have seen the cost


of that lesson 12 month latdr at the general election defeat. There's


that mean you have given up the Green party space to another party?


We are very keen on green warming. We are very keen on green w`rming.


`` we are very keen on green issues, global warming. We need to work


together. You cannot solve the problems of global warming on your


own. Latest talk about the threat from UKIP. Why are you so bothered


about them given that they can not deliver an out referendum? H am not


bothered by them. I am putthng forward a very positive Conservative


Party view. We should renegotiate the terms of membership and we


should hold a referendum. The reason for the rise of UKIP is that they


have become the beneficiary of protest votes. You have two Mac


parties in a coalition government... Let me finish. You


have the Labour Party with the most useless leader of the opposition


useless leader of the opposhtion ever. A lot of those protest votes


`` are voting UKIP. The Libdral `` are voting UKIP. The Liberal


Democrats on national polling face being wiped out in these elections.


No we do not. I can see no circumstances where we will not hold


the seat of London for example, and a seat in the south`east. The only


polls that I am interested hn the polls that I am interested in the


pores of people go to as thd pores of people go to as thd


electorate of the country. I hope electorate of the country. I hope


that on Thursday they will return me and other Liberal Democrats. Before


we go these time for a quick rundown of the political week in 60 seconds.


The Chief Constable of Eden and Somerset was suspended after


complaints about inappropriate behaviour towards female melbers of


staff. He is said to have been staff. He is said to have been


devastated when he was told the news and an investigation is unddr the


and an investigation is under the way. More needs to be done to get


the Somalian population of Bristol voting. So far this man has signed


up 1000 people. A mere of London made another mistake, this time on a


visit to Cheltenham. He needed reminding of the name of the local


reminding of the name of thd local candidate. I am just here to support


Alex Clark. Sorry, start ag`in. And these veteran West Country rock


musicians have entered the campaign for wind farms.


That is it's from the West this week. Thank you to everyone who has


come here today. Join us next Sunday when we will have a full rundown of


the local election results. These as a full list of everybody standing on


a full list of everybody st`nding on the BBC


thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.


Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls


do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune


on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take


a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European


Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By


April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel


Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both


cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.


Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most


unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We


long time. It keeps us in a job We are joined now by the managing


director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the


polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to


do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are


going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high


turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply


not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on


those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really


benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,


democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are


going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come


the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of


your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of


pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,


and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on


voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now


a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?


It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to


happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is


becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because


distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it


is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to


try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We


UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote


share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did


vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming


from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is


that ultimately, every single establishment party should be


worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really


do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on


their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there


is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's


right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that


they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like


immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political


parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest


that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be


right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I


would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this


one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because


of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder


whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of


Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about


voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely


to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We


underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I


think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other


standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in


Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick,


Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick you


don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP


photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more


motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.


Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as


Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed


with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do


it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we


want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left


the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these


elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how


many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is


saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If


that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street


are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP


but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of


polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which


may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the


answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask


people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking


that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general


election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think


the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term


parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros


will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or


UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is


about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell


yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will


have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the


screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could


be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the


mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And


there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in


the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There


are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an


honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If


Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is


nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't


there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could


happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be


replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have


to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David


Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the


right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is


quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find


the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories


want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are


right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big


thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris


Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the


chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But


where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called


Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.


And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not


lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And


some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,


Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression


that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed


Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this


rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although


that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in


the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the


economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on


your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference


between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was


elected in 2008 after the crash, so elected in 2008 after the crash so


everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed


Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is


difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the


Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are


much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in


the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do


matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in


the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on


the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of


confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for


years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls


could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the


election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for


that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday


There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC


Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the


European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow


lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for


The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday


The Sunday before we go to the polls in local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to the culture secretary Sajid Javid, Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes and Labour's Hilary Benn.

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