Browse content similar to 18/05/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until | :00:38. | :00:45. | |
election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised | :01:03. | :01:06. | |
an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the | :01:07. | :01:10. | |
It is the final countdown for Europe campaign trail, he has been asking | :01:11. | :01:21. | |
It is the final countdown for Europe as politicians scrap over a possible | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
referendum. elections, and the 50th anniversary | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio, | :01:28. | :01:37. | |
with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt, | :01:38. | :01:46. | |
Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But | :02:03. | :02:04. | |
pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European | :02:16. | :02:17. | |
Parliament elections. These local results should be known | :02:18. | :02:41. | |
by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday, | :03:06. | :03:09. | |
and the general election is still wide open - we really are in | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are, | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know | :03:27. | :03:34. | |
that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried. | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his | :04:36. | :04:43. | |
own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the | :04:44. | :04:54. | |
Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second, | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, | :05:36. | :05:42. | |
France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's | :06:04. | :06:10. | |
speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a | :06:58. | :07:08. | |
referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this | :07:36. | :07:42. | |
week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or | :07:43. | :07:44. | |
Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
involved in some kind of racist sexist or homophobic incident. I am | :07:54. | :07:56. | |
not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a | :08:27. | :08:33. | |
huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably | :08:38. | :08:40. | |
the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic | :08:41. | :08:47. | |
leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between | :09:11. | :09:14. | |
television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says... | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have | :10:02. | :10:04. | |
put forward a lot of positive -- 2010 and going back on it. We have | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual, | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
But when it comes to individual local issues, say, a particular | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out | :10:29. | :10:34. | |
really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians | :10:35. | :10:37. | |
to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But | :11:09. | :11:14. | |
certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would | :11:28. | :11:34. | |
be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent, | :11:35. | :11:39. | |
sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
's... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants. | :11:54. | :11:59. | |
70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
would not be 1975, then? Andrew, concerned about immigration. So it | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
would not be 1975, then? Andrew it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it | :12:10. | :12:11. | |
sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am | :12:34. | :12:38. | |
surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they | :12:49. | :12:57. | |
being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out | :13:17. | :13:18. | |
how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24 | :13:19. | :13:35. | |
hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make | :13:39. | :13:46. | |
up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm | :14:04. | :14:12. | |
welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention. | :14:13. | :14:22. | |
One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got | :14:23. | :14:27. | |
Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and | :14:28. | :14:30. | |
that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members | :14:35. | :14:41. | |
for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top | :14:42. | :14:49. | |
Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in | :14:50. | :14:52. | |
traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to | :14:59. | :15:03. | |
Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We | :15:09. | :15:14. | |
will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the | :15:21. | :15:22. | |
Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses | :15:23. | :15:37. | |
upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. | :15:43. | :15:50. | |
I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about | :15:51. | :15:58. | |
elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at | :15:59. | :16:01. | |
our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in | :16:02. | :16:04. | |
Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was | :16:10. | :16:20. | |
boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just | :16:21. | :16:26. | |
hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who | :16:33. | :16:41. | |
live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed | :16:42. | :16:47. | |
Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls | :16:48. | :16:49. | |
lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're | :16:54. | :17:06. | |
flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning | :17:13. | :17:18. | |
as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said | :17:19. | :17:25. | |
the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If | :17:26. | :17:32. | |
he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40 | :17:38. | :17:39. | |
minutes to get having elections too. I have 40 | :17:40. | :17:49. | |
212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided, | :17:50. | :17:58. | |
12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone. | :17:59. | :18:10. | |
Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our | :18:11. | :18:18. | |
studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in | :18:19. | :18:22. | |
Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place, | :18:23. | :18:33. | |
looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are | :18:39. | :18:42. | |
recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people | :18:49. | :18:54. | |
over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands | :18:55. | :19:00. | |
synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are | :19:11. | :19:17. | |
stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the | :19:43. | :19:54. | |
polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that | :20:00. | :20:04. | |
we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society | :20:05. | :20:08. | |
works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the | :20:09. | :20:11. | |
limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want | :20:12. | :20:19. | |
all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing? | :20:25. | :20:29. | |
Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into | :20:30. | :20:36. | |
a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French | :20:42. | :20:48. | |
nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across | :20:49. | :20:56. | |
Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the | :21:04. | :21:14. | |
big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French | :21:15. | :21:24. | |
nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology, | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two | :21:35. | :21:41. | |
plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now. | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined | :21:50. | :21:56. | |
strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise | :22:02. | :22:06. | |
council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at | :22:11. | :22:17. | |
the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in | :22:23. | :22:28. | |
Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a | :22:39. | :22:46. | |
debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have | :22:47. | :22:50. | |
that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be | :22:56. | :22:59. | |
brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride | :23:00. | :23:08. | |
in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in | :23:14. | :23:21. | |
Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between. | :23:27. | :23:29. | |
Probably a good move. Thank you. Newcastle and many areas in between. | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
Probably a good move. Thank you I'm Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm | :23:35. | :23:46. | |
joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and | :23:47. | :24:16. | |
Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change. | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change. | :24:31. | :24:37. | |
Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second, | :24:47. | :24:52. | |
you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are | :24:59. | :25:02. | |
concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season | :25:13. | :25:17. | |
change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to | :25:28. | :25:34. | |
charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a | :25:35. | :25:40. | |
flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will | :25:41. | :25:43. | |
continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward | :25:44. | :25:54. | |
policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters | :26:00. | :26:06. | |
decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP | :26:07. | :26:11. | |
question is that they get support because they have never been in | :26:12. | :26:17. | |
power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is | :26:23. | :26:31. | |
that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made | :26:37. | :26:45. | |
in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14 | :26:46. | :26:51. | |
out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously | :26:52. | :27:00. | |
disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second, | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
it will show that people don't really trust your promise about | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you. | :27:15. | :27:20. | |
What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European | :27:26. | :27:29. | |
treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European | :27:30. | :27:34. | |
budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying | :27:40. | :27:48. | |
more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British | :27:59. | :28:04. | |
people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a | :28:05. | :28:12. | |
liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, | :28:24. | :28:27. | |
but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom | :28:34. | :28:46. | |
tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work | :28:47. | :28:49. | |
for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system. | :28:50. | :28:58. | |
So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be | :28:59. | :29:07. | |
voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David | :29:08. | :29:11. | |
Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have | :29:18. | :29:20. | |
been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this | :29:32. | :29:35. | |
country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and | :29:36. | :29:42. | |
we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It | :29:52. | :30:01. | |
may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the | :30:02. | :30:04. | |
European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people | :30:05. | :30:09. | |
understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In | :30:15. | :30:18. | |
terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party. | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in | :30:27. | :30:33. | |
office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes. | :30:39. | :30:44. | |
One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that | :30:45. | :30:48. | |
they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a | :30:49. | :30:51. | |
government have delivered more affordable housing in this | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next | :30:57. | :31:02. | |
three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall | :31:03. | :31:11. | |
housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the | :31:12. | :31:18. | |
Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes. | :31:19. | :31:20. | |
Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your | :31:21. | :31:28. | |
last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting | :31:29. | :31:34. | |
UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure | :31:49. | :31:52. | |
you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a | :32:10. | :32:19. | |
referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which | :32:28. | :32:31. | |
wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to | :32:32. | :32:35. | |
the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes. | :32:36. | :32:42. | |
What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has | :32:43. | :32:45. | |
been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy | :32:51. | :32:53. | |
prices, more childcare, policies which directly address | :32:54. | :32:58. | |
prices, more childcare, policies which people face. I think the | :32:59. | :32:59. | |
public will realise that. which people face. I think the | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used | :33:04. | :33:05. | |
to be in favour of a referendum We to be in favour of a referendum? We | :33:06. | :33:07. | |
are in favour, we voted for one we are in favour, we voted for one, we | :33:08. | :33:12. | |
have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a | :33:17. | :33:22. | |
referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously | :33:23. | :33:27. | |
want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it | :33:28. | :33:35. | |
would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until | :33:36. | :33:38. | |
there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and | :33:39. | :33:44. | |
then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to | :33:45. | :33:51. | |
leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
partners with the Conservatives, but partners with the Conservatives but | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built | :34:05. | :34:11. | |
our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out | :34:15. | :34:20. | |
of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep | :34:25. | :34:27. | |
absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British | :34:33. | :34:35. | |
withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am | :34:42. | :34:52. | |
very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he | :34:58. | :35:03. | |
said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the | :35:04. | :35:07. | |
party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and | :35:13. | :35:15. | |
then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a | :35:16. | :35:21. | |
line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with | :35:22. | :35:24. | |
Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme! | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn | :35:47. | :35:53. | |
what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then, | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you. | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of | :36:19. | :36:22. | |
powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we | :36:23. | :36:27. | |
believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for | :36:28. | :36:33. | |
economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our | :36:34. | :36:40. | |
relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday | :36:41. | :36:43. | |
will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything | :36:44. | :36:50. | |
you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the | :36:57. | :37:02. | |
dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of | :37:10. | :37:16. | |
a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one | :37:17. | :37:27. | |
more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just | :37:37. | :37:39. | |
that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot | :37:40. | :37:43. | |
more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at | :37:44. | :37:46. | |
Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not | :37:47. | :37:50. | |
been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that | :37:51. | :37:56. | |
is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible | :37:57. | :37:59. | |
of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of | :38:00. | :38:02. | |
the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford. | :38:03. | :38:09. | |
We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it - | :38:10. | :38:16. | |
he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday | :38:17. | :38:20. | |
Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for | :38:21. | :38:23. | |
This is Sunday Politics herd in the Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming | :38:24. | :38:39. | |
This is Sunday Politics here in the glorious West Country. Bracd | :38:40. | :38:42. | |
glorious West Country. Brace yourselves as this is our l`st show | :38:43. | :38:44. | |
yourselves as this is our last show before the voting begins in a big | :38:45. | :38:47. | |
European contest. It may lack the glitz and glamour, and garish | :38:48. | :38:50. | |
costumes of Eurovision. And there are no bearded ladies as far as we | :38:51. | :38:55. | |
know. Which parties in the south`west will triumph and which | :38:56. | :38:56. | |
ones will get nil points? With me ones will get nil points? With me | :38:57. | :39:01. | |
are members of the four parties who won seats in the West since we | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
joined in the 1970s. They are William Dartmouth of UKIP. Good | :39:08. | :39:11. | |
morning. The Conservative Ashley Fox. Graham Watson for the Liberal | :39:12. | :39:15. | |
Democrats and the Glyn Ford from Labour. Later we will also hear from | :39:16. | :39:25. | |
the Green party who just missed out on a seat the last time arotnd. Let | :39:26. | :39:29. | |
us start by talking about a topic never far from the headlines and | :39:30. | :39:31. | |
that is immigration. Ashley Fox are that is immigration. Ashley Fox, are | :39:32. | :39:34. | |
you relaxed about the number of migrants coming from the rest | :39:35. | :39:37. | |
Europe. I support the freedom of movement of labour and I am | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
comfortable for Europeans to come here who want to make a | :39:41. | :39:50. | |
contribution. They want to work and want to pay tax. What the government | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
has done is change the rules so that people cannot come here and claim | :39:57. | :39:59. | |
benefits. Or use the NHS without making a contribution. Everxthing is | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
fine now? We have to acknowledge that it is a real concern about the | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
volume of immigrants who have came to this country since 2004. And as I | :40:07. | :40:10. | |
think the Labour Party accept now, Jack Straw does, it was a | :40:11. | :40:12. | |
spectacular mistake. The reason Jack Straw does, it was a | :40:13. | :40:13. | |
spectacular mistake. The re`son that spectacular mistake. The re`son that | :40:14. | :40:15. | |
we have an issue with immigration no is that because of the mistakes the | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
Labour Party made in 2004. Glyn Ford from Labour Party, immigrants are | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
arriving in the West Countrx at a rate of about 1000 per week. This | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
was at the height of the movement. Do you accept that was a mistake | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
too? I accept that we should have done more. It is very clear that | :40:30. | :40:32. | |
communities were suffering problems from the migrants coming in. I was | :40:33. | :40:39. | |
in favour of them coming but I was not in favour of putting anx | :40:40. | :40:40. | |
not in favour of putting any resources that would help them | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
cope. The UK Government, our government at the time, was actually | :40:44. | :40:46. | |
benefiting from the taxes that they were paying. It should've been | :40:47. | :40:48. | |
were paying. It should've bden alleviating the problems that | :40:49. | :40:49. | |
alleviating the problems th`t actually existed. Should you reduce | :40:50. | :40:51. | |
the numbers further? We havd a actually existed. Should yot reduce | :40:52. | :40:52. | |
the numbers further? We have a scare the numbers further? We havd a scare | :40:53. | :40:54. | |
story this time around about how we're going to be flooded whth the | :40:55. | :40:56. | |
we're going to be flooded with the Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns | :40:57. | :40:58. | |
out that more people have ldft Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns | :40:59. | :41:00. | |
out that more people have left the out that more people have left the | :41:01. | :41:00. | |
UK. There were problems bec`use out that more people have ldft the | :41:01. | :41:02. | |
UK. There were problems bec`use we were opening up Britain and | :41:03. | :41:05. | |
Ireland, and Sweden, who were the only countries who allowed free | :41:06. | :41:14. | |
movement in 2004. Two new member states coming in at the momdnt | :41:15. | :41:15. | |
movement in 2004. Two new mdmber states coming in at the moment that | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
are in comparatively smaller. The same problem does not exist. I have | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
just came back from Gibralt`r. You have got areas of Spain that are | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
majority British and German. It goes both ways. Let us bring in Graham | :41:28. | :41:37. | |
Watson. You are from the most pro`European party, I guess. Do you | :41:38. | :41:40. | |
accept that migration has any downsides? Of course there's a | :41:41. | :41:44. | |
problem of pressure on servhces and the government has to be able to be | :41:45. | :41:49. | |
sure that we are able to provide the services that the people nedd. | :41:50. | :41:50. | |
services that the people need. Doctors, dentists, school places or | :41:51. | :41:56. | |
what ever. I am from the most pro`British party in the sense that | :41:57. | :41:59. | |
I believe in the membership of the European Union and that is essential | :42:00. | :42:01. | |
for the British economy. Thd European Union and that is dssential | :42:02. | :42:03. | |
for the British economy. The freedom for the British economy. Thd freedom | :42:04. | :42:03. | |
of movement for Labour is important of movement for Labour is ilportant | :42:04. | :42:08. | |
for that. The reason that so many people came was that there were jobs | :42:09. | :42:12. | |
to be done. We had a booming economy. I asked if there wdre any | :42:13. | :42:14. | |
economy. I asked if there were any downsides to it? Not if you are an | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
employer in the South West. In the town where I live we have got a | :42:19. | :42:21. | |
slaughterhouse. It employs just over 300 people. Most of them are | :42:22. | :42:23. | |
immigrants. If we did not h`ve 300 people. Most of them ard | :42:24. | :42:25. | |
immigrants. If we did not have them immigrants. If we did not have them | :42:26. | :42:27. | |
then we would not be able to run that slaughterhouse. They would not | :42:28. | :42:29. | |
staff your care homes in the staff your care homes in thd | :42:30. | :42:30. | |
south`west. We were warned about staff your care homes in the | :42:31. | :42:32. | |
south`west. We were warned `bout the south`west. We were warned `bout the | :42:33. | :42:32. | |
tens of thousands of Romanians south`west. We were warned about the | :42:33. | :42:34. | |
tens of thousands of Romani`ns and tens of thousands of Romanians and | :42:35. | :42:36. | |
Bulgarians that would be he`ding our way. That has not happened. It was | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
scaremongering. Could I advise you of the context, the context is that | :42:42. | :42:45. | |
immigration is a matter of great public concern and the contdxt | :42:46. | :42:46. | |
immigration is a matter of great public concern and the context of | :42:47. | :42:46. | |
public concern and the contdxt of that concern is that from 1997 | :42:47. | :42:48. | |
public concern and the context of that concern is that from 1897 to | :42:49. | :42:48. | |
that concern is that from 1997 to 2010 according to the Institute for | :42:49. | :42:58. | |
Statistics... This is the context. The other context is this. The | :42:59. | :43:00. | |
Conservative Party general election Conservative Party general election | :43:01. | :43:01. | |
manifesto promised to reducd manifesto promised to reducd | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
immigration to tens of thousands. I quote, that is what it says. And | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
that is where we have succedded That is where you have not | :43:11. | :43:13. | |
succeeded. You know that perfectly well. The fact of the matter is that | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
as long as we remain in the European Union over 450 million people have | :43:18. | :43:21. | |
the absolute right to work `nd settle here. I very rarely praise | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to the | :43:25. | :43:25. | |
the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to thd British | :43:26. | :43:25. | |
Party have apologised to the British people to their mishandling of when | :43:26. | :43:29. | |
the countries joined in 2004. The Conservative Party should apologise | :43:30. | :43:32. | |
for not having a credible policy on immigration. We simply do not know | :43:33. | :43:43. | |
what it is. Would you apologise for saying that 29 million Romanians and | :43:44. | :43:45. | |
Bulgarians may come? We nevdr saying that 29 million Romanians and | :43:46. | :43:47. | |
Bulgarians may come? We nevdr said that. They pointed out that in | :43:48. | :43:53. | |
January first this year, 25 million Romanians and Bulgarians... I think | :43:54. | :44:00. | |
it is about 27 million. Thex were it is about 27 million. They were | :44:01. | :44:06. | |
eligible to come to Europe. Migration Watch which is thd most | :44:07. | :44:08. | |
Migration Watch which is the most reputable producer of immigration | :44:09. | :44:10. | |
statistics, far more than the British government have estimated | :44:11. | :44:11. | |
British government have esthmated that 50,000 per year would come. The | :44:12. | :44:22. | |
context is what has happened since 1997. There is a further very | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
important point. Anybody who raises it gets abused. Gordon Brown abused | :44:28. | :44:34. | |
Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abusdd. It | :44:35. | :44:37. | |
Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abused. It is | :44:38. | :44:37. | |
been abused and we get abusdd. It is a concern of the British people and | :44:38. | :44:41. | |
it is high time that this abuse stopped. The answer to my qtestion | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
stopped. The answer to my question about whether you had apologised for | :44:46. | :44:48. | |
stating the 29 million people may come... We never said that. I will | :44:49. | :44:52. | |
not apologise for what was not said. We said that 29 million people | :44:53. | :44:55. | |
were eligible. You must know the difference, if you are a clever | :44:56. | :44:59. | |
chap. You must know the difference. Hang on there. European elections do | :45:00. | :45:02. | |
not often manage to excite too many voters but this time it may be | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
different. The returning officer for the south`west has reported a surge | :45:06. | :45:09. | |
in the number of people applying for postal votes. Some people think it | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about thd cost | :45:15. | :45:16. | |
is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about the cost of | :45:17. | :45:16. | |
people are unhappy about thd cost of being in the EU. We have been | :45:17. | :45:18. | |
being in the EU. We have bedn looking at those figures. | :45:19. | :45:25. | |
They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers here | :45:26. | :45:26. | |
They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers hdre know | :45:27. | :45:26. | |
the value of Europe. It gives over the value of Europe. It gives over | :45:27. | :45:34. | |
40% of its budget to agriculture, much of it on subsidy payments. ?200 | :45:35. | :45:40. | |
or ?300 but you cannot do without or ?300 but you cannot do whthout | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the gener`l | :45:47. | :45:47. | |
it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the general public | :45:48. | :45:48. | |
for the subsidies the gener`l public would not get cheap food. If the | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
food had to be produced without the subsidies then it would be tproar. | :45:53. | :45:57. | |
So what is the price tag for staying in this club? We pay in 13 billion | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
euros per year. We get back six billion euros and the cost to the | :46:04. | :46:05. | |
nation works out at about ?000 per nation works out at about ?000 per | :46:06. | :46:11. | |
person. Business groups likd the CBI say that benefits like access to a | :46:12. | :46:14. | |
single market are worth at least ten times that outlay. For a broader | :46:15. | :46:26. | |
view we head into town. On first sound, nearby Froome could be | :46:27. | :46:31. | |
France. After laying out our stall with boxes in the patriotic stripes | :46:32. | :46:37. | |
the Entente Cordiale is soon broken. Out. Definitely. Why are yot going | :46:38. | :46:41. | |
out? Because we no longer rule our out? Because we no longer rule our | :46:42. | :46:48. | |
country. There is too many people saying to this do that and we cannot | :46:49. | :46:52. | |
do it ourselves. We have to get out. It costs us far too much money. We | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
do not have control over who can come in and out of the country and I | :46:58. | :47:01. | |
think we would be better off without all those unelected bureaucrats who | :47:02. | :47:04. | |
are trying to tell us what to do. Any ball? Why are you for in? We | :47:05. | :47:14. | |
would become a little, tired, ailing country and we would be backward. | :47:15. | :47:19. | |
Lots of different policies for all those little places does not make | :47:20. | :47:20. | |
sense. I think it is utterlx sense. I think it is utterlx | :47:21. | :47:28. | |
ridiculous to say go out, when we are out. For all sorts of reasons, | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
economic, cultural and soci`l, economic, cultural and social, | :47:33. | :47:33. | |
environmental. The whole galut. economic, cultural and soci`l, | :47:34. | :47:38. | |
environmental. The whole galut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, UKIP! | :47:39. | :47:50. | |
environmental. The whole gamut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, TKIP In | :47:51. | :47:50. | |
the end Whether in or out many people still | :47:51. | :47:57. | |
wanted the option to choose. Something which still causes the | :47:58. | :47:58. | |
parties to feud. We said we would have a referendum | :47:59. | :48:17. | |
if there was any change in the terms of the treaty. We have made a few | :48:18. | :48:26. | |
changes. I think it is very clear that the people of Britain do not | :48:27. | :48:32. | |
have a referendum any time that things have stayed the same. We not | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
having a referendum on bringing back hanging. That was decided. A | :48:38. | :48:40. | |
hanging. That was decided. @ referendum that there was | :48:41. | :48:42. | |
significant treaty changes `nd referendum that there was | :48:43. | :48:43. | |
significant treaty changes and it significant treaty changes and it | :48:44. | :48:43. | |
should be an in and out refdrendum. should be an in and out refdrendum. | :48:44. | :48:50. | |
Graham Watson, do you agree with our close union? Evan, in and end. I | :48:51. | :48:57. | |
think countries should coopdrate close union? Evan, in and end. I | :48:58. | :48:58. | |
think countries should cooperate in think countries should coopdrate in | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
areas where they think it is sensible to cooperate. Why not if it | :49:01. | :49:06. | |
is in their interest to do so. Do you have to be in a union to | :49:07. | :49:10. | |
cooperate? No, you do not have to be cooperate? No, you do not h`ve to be | :49:11. | :49:12. | |
in a union but it is much easier to in a union but it is much easier to | :49:13. | :49:23. | |
do so. You have different bodies working together to frame | :49:24. | :49:25. | |
legislation that everybody should abide by. My party favours a | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
referendum and we believe they should've been one on the Lisbon | :49:31. | :49:33. | |
should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there | :49:34. | :49:35. | |
should've been one on the Lisbon Treaty. We argue that if thdre is | :49:36. | :49:35. | |
should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there is a | :49:36. | :49:37. | |
new treaty coming on in the should be a referendum for the British | :49:38. | :49:40. | |
people to decide if they want accept it. The Conservatives have promised | :49:41. | :49:47. | |
a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we belidve | :49:48. | :49:49. | |
a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we believe you | :49:50. | :49:50. | |
that you see now that you whll deliver. Why should we belidve you | :49:51. | :49:52. | |
that you see now that you will offer that you see now that you will offer | :49:53. | :49:55. | |
is one? I am afraid you are wrong. We did not promise a referendum, we | :49:56. | :49:58. | |
We did not promise a referendum we promise to have won if we came to | :49:59. | :50:00. | |
promise to have won if we c`me to power and the Lisbon Treaty had not | :50:01. | :50:06. | |
been ratified. I am afraid that you misquoted David Cameron. Thd Labour | :50:07. | :50:08. | |
misquoted David Cameron. The Labour Party under Gordon Brown ratified | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
the treaty without holding ` the treaty without holding ` | :50:12. | :50:14. | |
referendum. Our position is that Brussels has got too much power so | :50:15. | :50:19. | |
we want to renegotiate our terms of membership to take power back from | :50:20. | :50:25. | |
Brussels to Britain. When that negotiation is complete, we will | :50:26. | :50:28. | |
hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay hn | :50:29. | :50:32. | |
hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay in a | :50:33. | :50:37. | |
reformed EU. What is your bottom line? No negotiator would reveal his | :50:38. | :50:40. | |
bottom line. We have promisdd that bottom line. We have promised that | :50:41. | :50:51. | |
referendum in any event. If the negotiations fail, that refdrendum | :50:52. | :50:52. | |
negotiations fail, that referendum will take place anyway at the end of | :50:53. | :50:54. | |
2017. David Cameron said th`t he 2017. David Cameron said th`t he | :50:55. | :51:03. | |
would go, would you go too? David Cameron has said that he would not | :51:04. | :51:07. | |
be Prime Minister of the government that wasn't committed. I am not an | :51:08. | :51:08. | |
MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was | :51:09. | :51:13. | |
not delivered would you go? It is not a question for MEPs to hold that | :51:14. | :51:15. | |
referendum. It is for Westmhnster. referendum. It is for Westmhnster. | :51:16. | :51:18. | |
You want out. Your position is very clear. It is crystal clear. But you | :51:19. | :51:22. | |
are not in a position to offer anything. You could get all the | :51:23. | :51:24. | |
seats in the south`west and nothing The only people who are offdring a | :51:25. | :51:29. | |
referendum are the Conservative Party. I point out that the Liberal | :51:30. | :51:32. | |
Democrats had a three line whip voting against the referendtm | :51:33. | :51:35. | |
although they promised that in the general election. The Labour Party | :51:36. | :51:42. | |
position is very unclear but I think it means no if we try to understand | :51:43. | :51:47. | |
what Mr Ford said. I point out to Ashley Fox that the one referendum | :51:48. | :51:49. | |
Ashley Fox that the one refdrendum that we did have in 1975 took place | :51:50. | :51:53. | |
after we had entered the colmon market in 1973, after the treaty had | :51:54. | :52:00. | |
been ratified. The best way for somebody who wants a referendum to | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
hold the three major parties, the establishment parties to their | :52:04. | :52:04. | |
establishment parties to thdir promises, is to vote UKIP. I have | :52:05. | :52:13. | |
promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question! | :52:14. | :52:14. | |
promises, is to vote UKIP. I have just answered that question It | :52:15. | :52:15. | |
promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question! It is | :52:16. | :52:15. | |
just answered that question It is to stop what happened before. | :52:16. | :52:19. | |
just answered that question! It is to stop what happened beford. Mr | :52:20. | :52:19. | |
to stop what happened before. Mr Cameron broke his promise. Lr Clegg | :52:20. | :52:21. | |
Cameron broke his promise. Mr Clegg broke his promise. Mr Milib`nd never | :52:22. | :52:27. | |
made a promise. Who gave as the referendum in 1975, can you remind | :52:28. | :52:29. | |
me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg | :52:30. | :52:33. | |
admirer of Harold Wilson and I am a great admirer of Tony Benn. I would | :52:34. | :52:38. | |
point out that the number one Labour candidate as an official of the | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
Unite union sits in Tony Benn house and Tony Benn was a very | :52:43. | :52:45. | |
distinguished Bristol MP for 30 years. To all of the people who work | :52:46. | :52:54. | |
in this constituency in Airbus, in Honda, in Agusta Westland, all the | :52:55. | :52:56. | |
Honda, in Agusta Westland, `ll the big companies who rely on foreign | :52:57. | :52:59. | |
investment and on being in the European Union, are you going to put | :53:00. | :53:05. | |
all those jobs at risk? I al very glad that you have raised that. Are | :53:06. | :53:09. | |
you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the Europe`n | :53:10. | :53:11. | |
you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the European Union? | :53:12. | :53:12. | |
cease if we left the Europe`n Union? Are you claiming that all foreign | :53:13. | :53:17. | |
investment would cease? I would remind you that China alone sold 290 | :53:18. | :53:20. | |
million euros worth of goods to businesses in the European Union in | :53:21. | :53:27. | |
2012. A very small downturn in trade would have a major effect on jobs in | :53:28. | :53:33. | |
this constituency. It would make absolutely no difference at all. | :53:34. | :53:46. | |
Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the Europe`n | :53:47. | :53:47. | |
Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the European Union | :53:48. | :53:47. | |
Withdrawing from the Europe`n Union would have absolutely no impact, you | :53:48. | :53:49. | |
would have absolutely no impact you could argue it would be beneficial, | :53:50. | :53:52. | |
you could argue it would have a detrimental impact, the verx notion | :53:53. | :53:55. | |
that you do something as fundamental as that vote changing anything is | :53:56. | :54:00. | |
absolutely ridiculous. We h`ve to move on. | :54:01. | :54:10. | |
Voting in the EU is like `` is unlike any other election as it is | :54:11. | :54:13. | |
done on a proportional basis that will help smaller parties like | :54:14. | :54:19. | |
UKIP. Last thing the Green party nearly won the seat. | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
A different electoral system nearly won the seat. | :54:24. | :54:24. | |
A different electoral systel ushered A different electoral systel ushered | :54:25. | :54:28. | |
in a new era in British polhtics. The Green party got their first | :54:29. | :54:32. | |
members are elected. One decade later and the potential for smaller | :54:33. | :54:35. | |
parties was well`known. The ballot party given choice of `` the ballot | :54:36. | :54:43. | |
gave a choice of 17 parties. There was disappointment for the Green | :54:44. | :54:44. | |
party who narrowly missed ott. was disappointment for the Green | :54:45. | :54:47. | |
party who narrowly missed out. This time it is different and thd choice | :54:48. | :54:52. | |
is less, eat on the ballot paper. The Green party have got a new | :54:53. | :54:58. | |
target. They set their sights on the Liberal Democrats. It gives you a | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
lot of ammunition should yot need Liberal Democrats. It gives you a | :55:04. | :55:04. | |
lot of ammunition should you need it lot of ammunition should yot need it | :55:05. | :55:05. | |
to see how fast this government, to see how fast this governlent | :55:06. | :55:11. | |
including the Lib Dems... They hope to win over voters who are | :55:12. | :55:13. | |
pro`Europe but anti`coalition government. The selections have | :55:14. | :55:19. | |
always been beneficial for the Green party because they are based on a | :55:20. | :55:23. | |
proportional representation system. It is easier for the Green party to | :55:24. | :55:27. | |
get the opinions across and not worry about first past the post. A | :55:28. | :55:31. | |
worry about first past the post A good day for the Green party could | :55:32. | :55:34. | |
be a bad day for the Liberal Democrats. | :55:35. | :55:41. | |
Along with the game party, there are the other parties in the running for | :55:42. | :55:48. | |
your vote. Independence from Europe, the British National party, and the | :55:49. | :55:54. | |
English Democrats. You can see all pitches from those parties on the | :55:55. | :56:02. | |
points West Facebook page. What are your views on wind | :56:03. | :56:07. | |
turbines? I am opposed to them. Why have you given over some of your | :56:08. | :56:09. | |
land and another part of thd party land and another part of the party | :56:10. | :56:12. | |
to a relative who has allowed them to be built. It is not my l`nd. It | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
to be built. It is not my land. It is not my application and I will not | :56:19. | :56:20. | |
derive any financial benefit from it. The land was transferred some | :56:21. | :56:26. | |
years ago. Does that make you hypocritical? No. I have derived no | :56:27. | :56:31. | |
financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who hs | :56:32. | :56:34. | |
financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who is not in | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
my immediate family. It is not my wife or son. What was the value of | :56:39. | :56:40. | |
wife or son. What was the v`lue of the land that you give away? At the | :56:41. | :56:49. | |
time wish... At the time, not a huge amount. Did you know that that land | :56:50. | :56:58. | |
may be used as a wind farm? No. Are you embarrassed about it? I am | :56:59. | :57:02. | |
embarrassed on behalf of thd BBC embarrassed on behalf of the BBC | :57:03. | :57:05. | |
that as a public service broadcaster that we have got an election on | :57:06. | :57:09. | |
Thursday on the European question Thursday on the European question | :57:10. | :57:12. | |
and this is the second BBC programme that is devoted time to what is a | :57:13. | :57:20. | |
known issue. It is a legitilate question. I do not think so, not | :57:21. | :57:25. | |
from a public service broadcaster. If you say in public that you do not | :57:26. | :57:30. | |
approve of wind farms. This was years ago. You are still taking up | :57:31. | :57:34. | |
the very little time that we have years ago. You are still taking up | :57:35. | :57:36. | |
the very little time that wd have to the very little time that wd have to | :57:37. | :57:38. | |
discuss the European question. I do not be cost `` discuss the cost of | :57:39. | :57:42. | |
European regulation that was omitted from the package? Why cannot we | :57:43. | :57:47. | |
discussed the fact that when they are in the European Union that | :57:48. | :57:50. | |
Britain could not saying its own trade agreements. You were beaten | :57:51. | :57:57. | |
into fourth place last time. Fifth place. It was extremely | :57:58. | :58:00. | |
disappointing. It was at the place. It was extremely | :58:01. | :58:04. | |
disappointing. It was at thd height disappointing. It was at thd height | :58:05. | :58:05. | |
of the opposition to the Labour government and we have seen the cost | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
of that lesson 12 month latdr at the general election defeat. There's | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
that mean you have given up the Green party space to another party? | :58:15. | :58:17. | |
We are very keen on green warming. We are very keen on green w`rming. | :58:18. | :58:26. | |
`` we are very keen on green issues, global warming. We need to work | :58:27. | :58:34. | |
together. You cannot solve the problems of global warming on your | :58:35. | :58:38. | |
own. Latest talk about the threat from UKIP. Why are you so bothered | :58:39. | :58:45. | |
about them given that they can not deliver an out referendum? H am not | :58:46. | :58:54. | |
bothered by them. I am putthng forward a very positive Conservative | :58:55. | :58:58. | |
Party view. We should renegotiate the terms of membership and we | :58:59. | :59:02. | |
should hold a referendum. The reason for the rise of UKIP is that they | :59:03. | :59:09. | |
have become the beneficiary of protest votes. You have two Mac | :59:10. | :59:12. | |
parties in a coalition government... Let me finish. You | :59:13. | :59:17. | |
have the Labour Party with the most useless leader of the opposition | :59:18. | :59:18. | |
useless leader of the opposhtion ever. A lot of those protest votes | :59:19. | :59:25. | |
`` are voting UKIP. The Libdral `` are voting UKIP. The Liberal | :59:26. | :59:32. | |
Democrats on national polling face being wiped out in these elections. | :59:33. | :59:37. | |
No we do not. I can see no circumstances where we will not hold | :59:38. | :59:41. | |
the seat of London for example, and a seat in the south`east. The only | :59:42. | :59:43. | |
polls that I am interested hn the polls that I am interested in the | :59:44. | :59:47. | |
pores of people go to as thd pores of people go to as thd | :59:48. | :59:48. | |
electorate of the country. I hope electorate of the country. I hope | :59:49. | :59:53. | |
that on Thursday they will return me and other Liberal Democrats. Before | :59:54. | :59:59. | |
we go these time for a quick rundown of the political week in 60 seconds. | :00:00. | :00:09. | |
The Chief Constable of Eden and Somerset was suspended after | :00:10. | :00:12. | |
complaints about inappropriate behaviour towards female melbers of | :00:13. | :00:13. | |
staff. He is said to have been staff. He is said to have been | :00:14. | :00:19. | |
devastated when he was told the news and an investigation is unddr the | :00:20. | :00:21. | |
and an investigation is under the way. More needs to be done to get | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
the Somalian population of Bristol voting. So far this man has signed | :00:25. | :00:34. | |
up 1000 people. A mere of London made another mistake, this time on a | :00:35. | :00:39. | |
visit to Cheltenham. He needed reminding of the name of the local | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
reminding of the name of thd local candidate. I am just here to support | :00:43. | :00:51. | |
Alex Clark. Sorry, start ag`in. And these veteran West Country rock | :00:52. | :00:59. | |
musicians have entered the campaign for wind farms. | :01:00. | :01:09. | |
That is it's from the West this week. Thank you to everyone who has | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
come here today. Join us next Sunday when we will have a full rundown of | :01:17. | :01:23. | |
the local election results. These as a full list of everybody standing on | :01:24. | :01:24. | |
a full list of everybody st`nding on the BBC | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew. | :01:28. | :01:39. | |
Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European | :01:57. | :02:00. | |
Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By | :02:01. | :02:05. | |
April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel | :02:06. | :02:10. | |
Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both | :02:11. | :02:16. | |
cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election. | :02:17. | :02:28. | |
Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
long time. It keeps us in a job We are joined now by the managing | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high | :02:59. | :03:01. | |
turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply | :03:02. | :03:08. | |
not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically, | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are | :03:21. | :03:28. | |
going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of | :03:38. | :03:43. | |
pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on | :03:49. | :04:02. | |
voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now | :04:03. | :04:11. | |
a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods? | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it | :04:30. | :04:36. | |
is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is | :04:56. | :05:02. | |
that ultimately, every single establishment party should be | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there | :05:14. | :05:20. | |
is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political | :05:36. | :05:38. | |
parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be | :05:44. | :05:51. | |
right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I | :05:52. | :05:58. | |
would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this | :05:59. | :06:01. | |
one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of | :06:09. | :06:15. | |
Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely | :06:20. | :06:24. | |
to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I | :06:29. | :06:36. | |
think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in | :06:42. | :06:44. | |
Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick, | :06:45. | :06:47. | |
Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick you | :06:48. | :06:48. | |
don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right. | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is | :07:36. | :07:41. | |
saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the | :08:55. | :09:07. | |
screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an | :09:31. | :09:38. | |
honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If | :09:39. | :09:46. | |
Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't | :09:51. | :09:55. | |
there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could | :09:56. | :10:04. | |
happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But | :10:54. | :11:01. | |
where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently. | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although | :11:35. | :11:37. | |
that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was | :11:59. | :12:00. | |
elected in 2008 after the crash, so elected in 2008 after the crash so | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do | :12:27. | :12:33. | |
matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of | :12:45. | :12:46. | |
confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for | :12:47. | :12:54. | |
years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls | :12:55. | :13:01. | |
could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday | :13:31. | :13:33. |