18/05/2014 Sunday Politics West


18/05/2014

Andrew Neil and David Garmston with the latest political news. Ahead of the local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to Sajid Javid, Simon Hughes and Hilary Benn.


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Transcript


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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

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election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

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on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

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on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

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are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

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an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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It is the final countdown for Europe campaign trail, he has been asking

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It is the final countdown for Europe as politicians scrap over a possible

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referendum. elections, and the 50th anniversary

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of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,

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with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,

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Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for

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everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of

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Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big

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one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local

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elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But

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pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

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commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

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at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

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Parliament elections. These local results should be known

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by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

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European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

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it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

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until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

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states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

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morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

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and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

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uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

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because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

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those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

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showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

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that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

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major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

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success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

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been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

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is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

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week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

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who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

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Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

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four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

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should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

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force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

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couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

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who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

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Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

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The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

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own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

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Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

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at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

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has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

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now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

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the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

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it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

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began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

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finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

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runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

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something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

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France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

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past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

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situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

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largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

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seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

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parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

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speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

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claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

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Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

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a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

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grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

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going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

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earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

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will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

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manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

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putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

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Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

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power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

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referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

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party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

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created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

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this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

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robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

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three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

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nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

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week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

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Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

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all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

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involved in some kind of racist sexist or homophobic incident. I am

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not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

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needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

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worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

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do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

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know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

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far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

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one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

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headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

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huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

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across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

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the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

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leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

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our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

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more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers.

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more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We

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are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

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Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

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television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

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much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

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the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

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conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

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joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

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UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

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line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

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On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

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obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

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manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

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put forward a lot of positive -- 2010 and going back on it. We have

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put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government

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level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

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But when it comes to individual local issues, say, a particular

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development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will

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vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the

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borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out

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really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians

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to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of

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the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a

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referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then

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happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first

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time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am

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not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come

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out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But

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have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But

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certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world

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economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be

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able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is

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what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would

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be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,

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sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and

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valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that

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referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people

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's... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.

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70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it

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would not be 1975, then? Andrew, concerned about immigration. So it

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would not be 1975, then? Andrew it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

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sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

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better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

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like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

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manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

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sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

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a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

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surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

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next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

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from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

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being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

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trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

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do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

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approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

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learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

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economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

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how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

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hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

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in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

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up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

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Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

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and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

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eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

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producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

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welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

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One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

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Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

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that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

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it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

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for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

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Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

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traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

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time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

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Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

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even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

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will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

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Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

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Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

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upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

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referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

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I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

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elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

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our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

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Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

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chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

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boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

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hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

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their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

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live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

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Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

:16:48.:16:49.

lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

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is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

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flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

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place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

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as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

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the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

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he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

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forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

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minutes to get having elections too. I have 40

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212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,

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12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.

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Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our

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studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in

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Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,

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looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest

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group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are

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recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only

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party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people

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over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands

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synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why

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should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the

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reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are

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stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives

:19:18.:19:23.

are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green

:19:24.:19:27.

belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed

:19:28.:19:32.

the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and

:19:33.:19:36.

saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that

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many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the

:19:43.:19:54.

polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are

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looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that

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we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society

:20:05.:20:08.

works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the

:20:09.:20:11.

limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want

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all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where

:20:20.:20:24.

would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?

:20:25.:20:29.

Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into

:20:30.:20:36.

a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for

:20:37.:20:41.

demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French

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nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across

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Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of

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we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is

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owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

:21:04.:21:14.

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

:21:15.:21:24.

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

:21:25.:21:31.

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

:21:32.:21:34.

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

:21:35.:21:41.

plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

:21:42.:21:45.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

:21:46.:21:49.

seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

:21:50.:21:56.

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

:21:57.:22:01.

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

:22:02.:22:06.

council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

:22:07.:22:10.

other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

:22:11.:22:17.

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

:22:18.:22:22.

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

:22:23.:22:28.

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

:22:29.:22:33.

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

:22:34.:22:38.

Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

:22:39.:22:46.

debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have

:22:47.:22:50.

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

:22:51.:22:55.

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

:22:56.:22:59.

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

:23:00.:23:08.

in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

:23:09.:23:13.

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

:23:14.:23:21.

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

:23:22.:23:26.

most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

:23:27.:23:29.

Probably a good move. Thank you. Newcastle and many areas in between.

:23:30.:23:34.

Probably a good move. Thank you I'm Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm

:23:35.:23:46.

joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and

:23:47.:24:16.

Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on

:24:17.:24:20.

the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.

:24:21.:24:25.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would

:24:26.:24:30.

like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.

:24:31.:24:37.

Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European

:24:38.:24:41.

elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning

:24:42.:24:46.

the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,

:24:47.:24:52.

you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation

:24:53.:24:58.

from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are

:24:59.:25:02.

concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage

:25:03.:25:07.

only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the

:25:08.:25:12.

interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season

:25:13.:25:17.

change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member

:25:18.:25:23.

states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to

:25:24.:25:27.

children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to

:25:28.:25:34.

charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a

:25:35.:25:40.

flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will

:25:41.:25:43.

continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward

:25:44.:25:54.

policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will

:25:55.:25:59.

look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters

:26:00.:26:06.

decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP

:26:07.:26:11.

question is that they get support because they have never been in

:26:12.:26:17.

power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get

:26:18.:26:22.

into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is

:26:23.:26:31.

that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the

:26:32.:26:36.

case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made

:26:37.:26:45.

in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14

:26:46.:26:51.

out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously

:26:52.:27:00.

disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the

:27:01.:27:06.

European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,

:27:07.:27:10.

it will show that people don't really trust your promise about

:27:11.:27:14.

European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.

:27:15.:27:20.

What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal

:27:21.:27:25.

Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European

:27:26.:27:29.

treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European

:27:30.:27:34.

budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted

:27:35.:27:39.

against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying

:27:40.:27:48.

more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout

:27:49.:27:53.

fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same

:27:54.:27:58.

energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British

:27:59.:28:04.

people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a

:28:05.:28:12.

liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against

:28:13.:28:18.

him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost

:28:19.:28:23.

consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,

:28:24.:28:27.

but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the

:28:28.:28:33.

problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom

:28:34.:28:46.

tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work

:28:47.:28:49.

for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.

:28:50.:28:58.

So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be

:28:59.:29:07.

voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David

:29:08.:29:11.

Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is

:29:12.:29:17.

recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have

:29:18.:29:20.

been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British

:29:21.:29:25.

politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit

:29:26.:29:31.

everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this

:29:32.:29:35.

country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and

:29:36.:29:42.

we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours

:29:43.:29:46.

contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse

:29:47.:29:51.

your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It

:29:52.:30:01.

may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the

:30:02.:30:04.

European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people

:30:05.:30:09.

understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on

:30:10.:30:14.

Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In

:30:15.:30:18.

terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my

:30:19.:30:22.

community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.

:30:23.:30:26.

Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in

:30:27.:30:33.

office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour

:30:34.:30:38.

have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.

:30:39.:30:44.

One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that

:30:45.:30:48.

they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a

:30:49.:30:51.

government have delivered more affordable housing in this

:30:52.:30:56.

Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next

:30:57.:31:02.

three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall

:31:03.:31:11.

housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the

:31:12.:31:18.

Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.

:31:19.:31:20.

Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your

:31:21.:31:28.

last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting

:31:29.:31:34.

UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said

:31:35.:31:39.

that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a

:31:40.:31:44.

result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in

:31:45.:31:48.

the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure

:31:49.:31:52.

you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what

:31:53.:31:57.

is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on

:31:58.:32:01.

free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:32:02.:32:05.

the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about

:32:06.:32:09.

change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a

:32:10.:32:19.

referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should

:32:20.:32:23.

get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future

:32:24.:32:27.

lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which

:32:28.:32:31.

wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to

:32:32.:32:35.

the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.

:32:36.:32:42.

What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has

:32:43.:32:45.

been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime

:32:46.:32:50.

Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy

:32:51.:32:53.

prices, more childcare, policies which directly address

:32:54.:32:58.

prices, more childcare, policies which people face. I think the

:32:59.:32:59.

public will realise that. which people face. I think the

:33:00.:33:03.

offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used

:33:04.:33:05.

to be in favour of a referendum We to be in favour of a referendum? We

:33:06.:33:07.

are in favour, we voted for one we are in favour, we voted for one, we

:33:08.:33:12.

have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between

:33:13.:33:16.

Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a

:33:17.:33:22.

referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously

:33:23.:33:27.

want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it

:33:28.:33:35.

would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until

:33:36.:33:38.

there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and

:33:39.:33:44.

then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to

:33:45.:33:51.

leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural

:33:52.:33:55.

partners with the Conservatives, but partners with the Conservatives but

:33:56.:34:00.

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

:34:01.:34:04.

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

:34:05.:34:11.

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

:34:12.:34:14.

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

:34:15.:34:20.

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

:34:21.:34:24.

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

:34:25.:34:27.

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

:34:28.:34:32.

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

:34:33.:34:35.

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

:34:36.:34:41.

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

:34:42.:34:52.

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

:34:53.:34:57.

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

:34:58.:35:03.

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

:35:04.:35:07.

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

:35:08.:35:12.

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

:35:13.:35:15.

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

:35:16.:35:21.

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

:35:22.:35:24.

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

:35:25.:35:29.

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

:35:30.:35:33.

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

:35:34.:35:37.

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

:35:38.:35:42.

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

:35:43.:35:46.

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn

:35:47.:35:53.

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

:35:54.:35:59.

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

:36:00.:36:02.

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

:36:03.:36:07.

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

:36:08.:36:13.

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

:36:14.:36:18.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

:36:19.:36:22.

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

:36:23.:36:27.

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

:36:28.:36:33.

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

:36:34.:36:40.

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

:36:41.:36:43.

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

:36:44.:36:50.

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

:36:51.:36:56.

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

:36:57.:37:02.

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

:37:03.:37:06.

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

:37:07.:37:09.

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

:37:10.:37:16.

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

:37:17.:37:27.

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

:37:28.:37:32.

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

:37:33.:37:36.

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

:37:37.:37:39.

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

:37:40.:37:43.

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

:37:44.:37:46.

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

:37:47.:37:50.

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

:37:51.:37:56.

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

:37:57.:37:59.

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

:38:00.:38:02.

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

:38:03.:38:09.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

:38:10.:38:16.

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

:38:17.:38:20.

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

:38:21.:38:23.

This is Sunday Politics herd in the Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming

:38:24.:38:39.

This is Sunday Politics here in the glorious West Country. Bracd

:38:40.:38:42.

glorious West Country. Brace yourselves as this is our l`st show

:38:43.:38:44.

yourselves as this is our last show before the voting begins in a big

:38:45.:38:47.

European contest. It may lack the glitz and glamour, and garish

:38:48.:38:50.

costumes of Eurovision. And there are no bearded ladies as far as we

:38:51.:38:55.

know. Which parties in the south`west will triumph and which

:38:56.:38:56.

ones will get nil points? With me ones will get nil points? With me

:38:57.:39:01.

are members of the four parties who won seats in the West since we

:39:02.:39:07.

joined in the 1970s. They are William Dartmouth of UKIP. Good

:39:08.:39:11.

morning. The Conservative Ashley Fox. Graham Watson for the Liberal

:39:12.:39:15.

Democrats and the Glyn Ford from Labour. Later we will also hear from

:39:16.:39:25.

the Green party who just missed out on a seat the last time arotnd. Let

:39:26.:39:29.

us start by talking about a topic never far from the headlines and

:39:30.:39:31.

that is immigration. Ashley Fox are that is immigration. Ashley Fox, are

:39:32.:39:34.

you relaxed about the number of migrants coming from the rest

:39:35.:39:37.

Europe. I support the freedom of movement of labour and I am

:39:38.:39:40.

comfortable for Europeans to come here who want to make a

:39:41.:39:50.

contribution. They want to work and want to pay tax. What the government

:39:51.:39:56.

has done is change the rules so that people cannot come here and claim

:39:57.:39:59.

benefits. Or use the NHS without making a contribution. Everxthing is

:40:00.:40:02.

fine now? We have to acknowledge that it is a real concern about the

:40:03.:40:06.

volume of immigrants who have came to this country since 2004. And as I

:40:07.:40:10.

think the Labour Party accept now, Jack Straw does, it was a

:40:11.:40:12.

spectacular mistake. The reason Jack Straw does, it was a

:40:13.:40:13.

spectacular mistake. The re`son that spectacular mistake. The re`son that

:40:14.:40:15.

we have an issue with immigration no is that because of the mistakes the

:40:16.:40:19.

Labour Party made in 2004. Glyn Ford from Labour Party, immigrants are

:40:20.:40:22.

arriving in the West Countrx at a rate of about 1000 per week. This

:40:23.:40:26.

was at the height of the movement. Do you accept that was a mistake

:40:27.:40:29.

too? I accept that we should have done more. It is very clear that

:40:30.:40:32.

communities were suffering problems from the migrants coming in. I was

:40:33.:40:39.

in favour of them coming but I was not in favour of putting anx

:40:40.:40:40.

not in favour of putting any resources that would help them

:40:41.:40:43.

cope. The UK Government, our government at the time, was actually

:40:44.:40:46.

benefiting from the taxes that they were paying. It should've been

:40:47.:40:48.

were paying. It should've bden alleviating the problems that

:40:49.:40:49.

alleviating the problems th`t actually existed. Should you reduce

:40:50.:40:51.

the numbers further? We havd a actually existed. Should yot reduce

:40:52.:40:52.

the numbers further? We have a scare the numbers further? We havd a scare

:40:53.:40:54.

story this time around about how we're going to be flooded whth the

:40:55.:40:56.

we're going to be flooded with the Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns

:40:57.:40:58.

out that more people have ldft Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns

:40:59.:41:00.

out that more people have left the out that more people have left the

:41:01.:41:00.

UK. There were problems bec`use out that more people have ldft the

:41:01.:41:02.

UK. There were problems bec`use we were opening up Britain and

:41:03.:41:05.

Ireland, and Sweden, who were the only countries who allowed free

:41:06.:41:14.

movement in 2004. Two new member states coming in at the momdnt

:41:15.:41:15.

movement in 2004. Two new mdmber states coming in at the moment that

:41:16.:41:18.

are in comparatively smaller. The same problem does not exist. I have

:41:19.:41:23.

just came back from Gibralt`r. You have got areas of Spain that are

:41:24.:41:27.

majority British and German. It goes both ways. Let us bring in Graham

:41:28.:41:37.

Watson. You are from the most pro`European party, I guess. Do you

:41:38.:41:40.

accept that migration has any downsides? Of course there's a

:41:41.:41:44.

problem of pressure on servhces and the government has to be able to be

:41:45.:41:49.

sure that we are able to provide the services that the people nedd.

:41:50.:41:50.

services that the people need. Doctors, dentists, school places or

:41:51.:41:56.

what ever. I am from the most pro`British party in the sense that

:41:57.:41:59.

I believe in the membership of the European Union and that is essential

:42:00.:42:01.

for the British economy. Thd European Union and that is dssential

:42:02.:42:03.

for the British economy. The freedom for the British economy. Thd freedom

:42:04.:42:03.

of movement for Labour is important of movement for Labour is ilportant

:42:04.:42:08.

for that. The reason that so many people came was that there were jobs

:42:09.:42:12.

to be done. We had a booming economy. I asked if there wdre any

:42:13.:42:14.

economy. I asked if there were any downsides to it? Not if you are an

:42:15.:42:18.

employer in the South West. In the town where I live we have got a

:42:19.:42:21.

slaughterhouse. It employs just over 300 people. Most of them are

:42:22.:42:23.

immigrants. If we did not h`ve 300 people. Most of them ard

:42:24.:42:25.

immigrants. If we did not have them immigrants. If we did not have them

:42:26.:42:27.

then we would not be able to run that slaughterhouse. They would not

:42:28.:42:29.

staff your care homes in the staff your care homes in thd

:42:30.:42:30.

south`west. We were warned about staff your care homes in the

:42:31.:42:32.

south`west. We were warned `bout the south`west. We were warned `bout the

:42:33.:42:32.

tens of thousands of Romanians south`west. We were warned about the

:42:33.:42:34.

tens of thousands of Romani`ns and tens of thousands of Romanians and

:42:35.:42:36.

Bulgarians that would be he`ding our way. That has not happened. It was

:42:37.:42:41.

scaremongering. Could I advise you of the context, the context is that

:42:42.:42:45.

immigration is a matter of great public concern and the contdxt

:42:46.:42:46.

immigration is a matter of great public concern and the context of

:42:47.:42:46.

public concern and the contdxt of that concern is that from 1997

:42:47.:42:48.

public concern and the context of that concern is that from 1897 to

:42:49.:42:48.

that concern is that from 1997 to 2010 according to the Institute for

:42:49.:42:58.

Statistics... This is the context. The other context is this. The

:42:59.:43:00.

Conservative Party general election Conservative Party general election

:43:01.:43:01.

manifesto promised to reducd manifesto promised to reducd

:43:02.:43:05.

immigration to tens of thousands. I quote, that is what it says. And

:43:06.:43:10.

that is where we have succedded That is where you have not

:43:11.:43:13.

succeeded. You know that perfectly well. The fact of the matter is that

:43:14.:43:17.

as long as we remain in the European Union over 450 million people have

:43:18.:43:21.

the absolute right to work `nd settle here. I very rarely praise

:43:22.:43:24.

the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to the

:43:25.:43:25.

the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to thd British

:43:26.:43:25.

Party have apologised to the British people to their mishandling of when

:43:26.:43:29.

the countries joined in 2004. The Conservative Party should apologise

:43:30.:43:32.

for not having a credible policy on immigration. We simply do not know

:43:33.:43:43.

what it is. Would you apologise for saying that 29 million Romanians and

:43:44.:43:45.

Bulgarians may come? We nevdr saying that 29 million Romanians and

:43:46.:43:47.

Bulgarians may come? We nevdr said that. They pointed out that in

:43:48.:43:53.

January first this year, 25 million Romanians and Bulgarians... I think

:43:54.:44:00.

it is about 27 million. Thex were it is about 27 million. They were

:44:01.:44:06.

eligible to come to Europe. Migration Watch which is thd most

:44:07.:44:08.

Migration Watch which is the most reputable producer of immigration

:44:09.:44:10.

statistics, far more than the British government have estimated

:44:11.:44:11.

British government have esthmated that 50,000 per year would come. The

:44:12.:44:22.

context is what has happened since 1997. There is a further very

:44:23.:44:27.

important point. Anybody who raises it gets abused. Gordon Brown abused

:44:28.:44:34.

Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abusdd. It

:44:35.:44:37.

Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abused. It is

:44:38.:44:37.

been abused and we get abusdd. It is a concern of the British people and

:44:38.:44:41.

it is high time that this abuse stopped. The answer to my qtestion

:44:42.:44:45.

stopped. The answer to my question about whether you had apologised for

:44:46.:44:48.

stating the 29 million people may come... We never said that. I will

:44:49.:44:52.

not apologise for what was not said. We said that 29 million people

:44:53.:44:55.

were eligible. You must know the difference, if you are a clever

:44:56.:44:59.

chap. You must know the difference. Hang on there. European elections do

:45:00.:45:02.

not often manage to excite too many voters but this time it may be

:45:03.:45:05.

different. The returning officer for the south`west has reported a surge

:45:06.:45:09.

in the number of people applying for postal votes. Some people think it

:45:10.:45:14.

is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about thd cost

:45:15.:45:16.

is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about the cost of

:45:17.:45:16.

people are unhappy about thd cost of being in the EU. We have been

:45:17.:45:18.

being in the EU. We have bedn looking at those figures.

:45:19.:45:25.

They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers here

:45:26.:45:26.

They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers hdre know

:45:27.:45:26.

the value of Europe. It gives over the value of Europe. It gives over

:45:27.:45:34.

40% of its budget to agriculture, much of it on subsidy payments. ?200

:45:35.:45:40.

or ?300 but you cannot do without or ?300 but you cannot do whthout

:45:41.:45:46.

it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the gener`l

:45:47.:45:47.

it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the general public

:45:48.:45:48.

for the subsidies the gener`l public would not get cheap food. If the

:45:49.:45:52.

food had to be produced without the subsidies then it would be tproar.

:45:53.:45:57.

So what is the price tag for staying in this club? We pay in 13 billion

:45:58.:46:03.

euros per year. We get back six billion euros and the cost to the

:46:04.:46:05.

nation works out at about ?000 per nation works out at about ?000 per

:46:06.:46:11.

person. Business groups likd the CBI say that benefits like access to a

:46:12.:46:14.

single market are worth at least ten times that outlay. For a broader

:46:15.:46:26.

view we head into town. On first sound, nearby Froome could be

:46:27.:46:31.

France. After laying out our stall with boxes in the patriotic stripes

:46:32.:46:37.

the Entente Cordiale is soon broken. Out. Definitely. Why are yot going

:46:38.:46:41.

out? Because we no longer rule our out? Because we no longer rule our

:46:42.:46:48.

country. There is too many people saying to this do that and we cannot

:46:49.:46:52.

do it ourselves. We have to get out. It costs us far too much money. We

:46:53.:46:57.

do not have control over who can come in and out of the country and I

:46:58.:47:01.

think we would be better off without all those unelected bureaucrats who

:47:02.:47:04.

are trying to tell us what to do. Any ball? Why are you for in? We

:47:05.:47:14.

would become a little, tired, ailing country and we would be backward.

:47:15.:47:19.

Lots of different policies for all those little places does not make

:47:20.:47:20.

sense. I think it is utterlx sense. I think it is utterlx

:47:21.:47:28.

ridiculous to say go out, when we are out. For all sorts of reasons,

:47:29.:47:32.

economic, cultural and soci`l, economic, cultural and social,

:47:33.:47:33.

environmental. The whole galut. economic, cultural and soci`l,

:47:34.:47:38.

environmental. The whole galut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, UKIP!

:47:39.:47:50.

environmental. The whole gamut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, TKIP In

:47:51.:47:50.

the end Whether in or out many people still

:47:51.:47:57.

wanted the option to choose. Something which still causes the

:47:58.:47:58.

parties to feud. We said we would have a referendum

:47:59.:48:17.

if there was any change in the terms of the treaty. We have made a few

:48:18.:48:26.

changes. I think it is very clear that the people of Britain do not

:48:27.:48:32.

have a referendum any time that things have stayed the same. We not

:48:33.:48:37.

having a referendum on bringing back hanging. That was decided. A

:48:38.:48:40.

hanging. That was decided. @ referendum that there was

:48:41.:48:42.

significant treaty changes `nd referendum that there was

:48:43.:48:43.

significant treaty changes and it significant treaty changes and it

:48:44.:48:43.

should be an in and out refdrendum. should be an in and out refdrendum.

:48:44.:48:50.

Graham Watson, do you agree with our close union? Evan, in and end. I

:48:51.:48:57.

think countries should coopdrate close union? Evan, in and end. I

:48:58.:48:58.

think countries should cooperate in think countries should coopdrate in

:48:59.:49:00.

areas where they think it is sensible to cooperate. Why not if it

:49:01.:49:06.

is in their interest to do so. Do you have to be in a union to

:49:07.:49:10.

cooperate? No, you do not have to be cooperate? No, you do not h`ve to be

:49:11.:49:12.

in a union but it is much easier to in a union but it is much easier to

:49:13.:49:23.

do so. You have different bodies working together to frame

:49:24.:49:25.

legislation that everybody should abide by. My party favours a

:49:26.:49:30.

referendum and we believe they should've been one on the Lisbon

:49:31.:49:33.

should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there

:49:34.:49:35.

should've been one on the Lisbon Treaty. We argue that if thdre is

:49:36.:49:35.

should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there is a

:49:36.:49:37.

new treaty coming on in the should be a referendum for the British

:49:38.:49:40.

people to decide if they want accept it. The Conservatives have promised

:49:41.:49:47.

a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we belidve

:49:48.:49:49.

a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we believe you

:49:50.:49:50.

that you see now that you whll deliver. Why should we belidve you

:49:51.:49:52.

that you see now that you will offer that you see now that you will offer

:49:53.:49:55.

is one? I am afraid you are wrong. We did not promise a referendum, we

:49:56.:49:58.

We did not promise a referendum we promise to have won if we came to

:49:59.:50:00.

promise to have won if we c`me to power and the Lisbon Treaty had not

:50:01.:50:06.

been ratified. I am afraid that you misquoted David Cameron. Thd Labour

:50:07.:50:08.

misquoted David Cameron. The Labour Party under Gordon Brown ratified

:50:09.:50:11.

the treaty without holding ` the treaty without holding `

:50:12.:50:14.

referendum. Our position is that Brussels has got too much power so

:50:15.:50:19.

we want to renegotiate our terms of membership to take power back from

:50:20.:50:25.

Brussels to Britain. When that negotiation is complete, we will

:50:26.:50:28.

hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay hn

:50:29.:50:32.

hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay in a

:50:33.:50:37.

reformed EU. What is your bottom line? No negotiator would reveal his

:50:38.:50:40.

bottom line. We have promisdd that bottom line. We have promised that

:50:41.:50:51.

referendum in any event. If the negotiations fail, that refdrendum

:50:52.:50:52.

negotiations fail, that referendum will take place anyway at the end of

:50:53.:50:54.

2017. David Cameron said th`t he 2017. David Cameron said th`t he

:50:55.:51:03.

would go, would you go too? David Cameron has said that he would not

:51:04.:51:07.

be Prime Minister of the government that wasn't committed. I am not an

:51:08.:51:08.

MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was

:51:09.:51:13.

not delivered would you go? It is not a question for MEPs to hold that

:51:14.:51:15.

referendum. It is for Westmhnster. referendum. It is for Westmhnster.

:51:16.:51:18.

You want out. Your position is very clear. It is crystal clear. But you

:51:19.:51:22.

are not in a position to offer anything. You could get all the

:51:23.:51:24.

seats in the south`west and nothing The only people who are offdring a

:51:25.:51:29.

referendum are the Conservative Party. I point out that the Liberal

:51:30.:51:32.

Democrats had a three line whip voting against the referendtm

:51:33.:51:35.

although they promised that in the general election. The Labour Party

:51:36.:51:42.

position is very unclear but I think it means no if we try to understand

:51:43.:51:47.

what Mr Ford said. I point out to Ashley Fox that the one referendum

:51:48.:51:49.

Ashley Fox that the one refdrendum that we did have in 1975 took place

:51:50.:51:53.

after we had entered the colmon market in 1973, after the treaty had

:51:54.:52:00.

been ratified. The best way for somebody who wants a referendum to

:52:01.:52:03.

hold the three major parties, the establishment parties to their

:52:04.:52:04.

establishment parties to thdir promises, is to vote UKIP. I have

:52:05.:52:13.

promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question!

:52:14.:52:14.

promises, is to vote UKIP. I have just answered that question It

:52:15.:52:15.

promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question! It is

:52:16.:52:15.

just answered that question It is to stop what happened before.

:52:16.:52:19.

just answered that question! It is to stop what happened beford. Mr

:52:20.:52:19.

to stop what happened before. Mr Cameron broke his promise. Lr Clegg

:52:20.:52:21.

Cameron broke his promise. Mr Clegg broke his promise. Mr Milib`nd never

:52:22.:52:27.

made a promise. Who gave as the referendum in 1975, can you remind

:52:28.:52:29.

me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg

:52:30.:52:33.

admirer of Harold Wilson and I am a great admirer of Tony Benn. I would

:52:34.:52:38.

point out that the number one Labour candidate as an official of the

:52:39.:52:42.

Unite union sits in Tony Benn house and Tony Benn was a very

:52:43.:52:45.

distinguished Bristol MP for 30 years. To all of the people who work

:52:46.:52:54.

in this constituency in Airbus, in Honda, in Agusta Westland, all the

:52:55.:52:56.

Honda, in Agusta Westland, `ll the big companies who rely on foreign

:52:57.:52:59.

investment and on being in the European Union, are you going to put

:53:00.:53:05.

all those jobs at risk? I al very glad that you have raised that. Are

:53:06.:53:09.

you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the Europe`n

:53:10.:53:11.

you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the European Union?

:53:12.:53:12.

cease if we left the Europe`n Union? Are you claiming that all foreign

:53:13.:53:17.

investment would cease? I would remind you that China alone sold 290

:53:18.:53:20.

million euros worth of goods to businesses in the European Union in

:53:21.:53:27.

2012. A very small downturn in trade would have a major effect on jobs in

:53:28.:53:33.

this constituency. It would make absolutely no difference at all.

:53:34.:53:46.

Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the Europe`n

:53:47.:53:47.

Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the European Union

:53:48.:53:47.

Withdrawing from the Europe`n Union would have absolutely no impact, you

:53:48.:53:49.

would have absolutely no impact you could argue it would be beneficial,

:53:50.:53:52.

you could argue it would have a detrimental impact, the verx notion

:53:53.:53:55.

that you do something as fundamental as that vote changing anything is

:53:56.:54:00.

absolutely ridiculous. We h`ve to move on.

:54:01.:54:10.

Voting in the EU is like `` is unlike any other election as it is

:54:11.:54:13.

done on a proportional basis that will help smaller parties like

:54:14.:54:19.

UKIP. Last thing the Green party nearly won the seat.

:54:20.:54:23.

A different electoral system nearly won the seat.

:54:24.:54:24.

A different electoral systel ushered A different electoral systel ushered

:54:25.:54:28.

in a new era in British polhtics. The Green party got their first

:54:29.:54:32.

members are elected. One decade later and the potential for smaller

:54:33.:54:35.

parties was well`known. The ballot party given choice of `` the ballot

:54:36.:54:43.

gave a choice of 17 parties. There was disappointment for the Green

:54:44.:54:44.

party who narrowly missed ott. was disappointment for the Green

:54:45.:54:47.

party who narrowly missed out. This time it is different and thd choice

:54:48.:54:52.

is less, eat on the ballot paper. The Green party have got a new

:54:53.:54:58.

target. They set their sights on the Liberal Democrats. It gives you a

:54:59.:55:03.

lot of ammunition should yot need Liberal Democrats. It gives you a

:55:04.:55:04.

lot of ammunition should you need it lot of ammunition should yot need it

:55:05.:55:05.

to see how fast this government, to see how fast this governlent

:55:06.:55:11.

including the Lib Dems... They hope to win over voters who are

:55:12.:55:13.

pro`Europe but anti`coalition government. The selections have

:55:14.:55:19.

always been beneficial for the Green party because they are based on a

:55:20.:55:23.

proportional representation system. It is easier for the Green party to

:55:24.:55:27.

get the opinions across and not worry about first past the post. A

:55:28.:55:31.

worry about first past the post A good day for the Green party could

:55:32.:55:34.

be a bad day for the Liberal Democrats.

:55:35.:55:41.

Along with the game party, there are the other parties in the running for

:55:42.:55:48.

your vote. Independence from Europe, the British National party, and the

:55:49.:55:54.

English Democrats. You can see all pitches from those parties on the

:55:55.:56:02.

points West Facebook page. What are your views on wind

:56:03.:56:07.

turbines? I am opposed to them. Why have you given over some of your

:56:08.:56:09.

land and another part of thd party land and another part of the party

:56:10.:56:12.

to a relative who has allowed them to be built. It is not my l`nd. It

:56:13.:56:18.

to be built. It is not my land. It is not my application and I will not

:56:19.:56:20.

derive any financial benefit from it. The land was transferred some

:56:21.:56:26.

years ago. Does that make you hypocritical? No. I have derived no

:56:27.:56:31.

financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who hs

:56:32.:56:34.

financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who is not in

:56:35.:56:38.

my immediate family. It is not my wife or son. What was the value of

:56:39.:56:40.

wife or son. What was the v`lue of the land that you give away? At the

:56:41.:56:49.

time wish... At the time, not a huge amount. Did you know that that land

:56:50.:56:58.

may be used as a wind farm? No. Are you embarrassed about it? I am

:56:59.:57:02.

embarrassed on behalf of thd BBC embarrassed on behalf of the BBC

:57:03.:57:05.

that as a public service broadcaster that we have got an election on

:57:06.:57:09.

Thursday on the European question Thursday on the European question

:57:10.:57:12.

and this is the second BBC programme that is devoted time to what is a

:57:13.:57:20.

known issue. It is a legitilate question. I do not think so, not

:57:21.:57:25.

from a public service broadcaster. If you say in public that you do not

:57:26.:57:30.

approve of wind farms. This was years ago. You are still taking up

:57:31.:57:34.

the very little time that we have years ago. You are still taking up

:57:35.:57:36.

the very little time that wd have to the very little time that wd have to

:57:37.:57:38.

discuss the European question. I do not be cost `` discuss the cost of

:57:39.:57:42.

European regulation that was omitted from the package? Why cannot we

:57:43.:57:47.

discussed the fact that when they are in the European Union that

:57:48.:57:50.

Britain could not saying its own trade agreements. You were beaten

:57:51.:57:57.

into fourth place last time. Fifth place. It was extremely

:57:58.:58:00.

disappointing. It was at the place. It was extremely

:58:01.:58:04.

disappointing. It was at thd height disappointing. It was at thd height

:58:05.:58:05.

of the opposition to the Labour government and we have seen the cost

:58:06.:58:10.

of that lesson 12 month latdr at the general election defeat. There's

:58:11.:58:14.

that mean you have given up the Green party space to another party?

:58:15.:58:17.

We are very keen on green warming. We are very keen on green w`rming.

:58:18.:58:26.

`` we are very keen on green issues, global warming. We need to work

:58:27.:58:34.

together. You cannot solve the problems of global warming on your

:58:35.:58:38.

own. Latest talk about the threat from UKIP. Why are you so bothered

:58:39.:58:45.

about them given that they can not deliver an out referendum? H am not

:58:46.:58:54.

bothered by them. I am putthng forward a very positive Conservative

:58:55.:58:58.

Party view. We should renegotiate the terms of membership and we

:58:59.:59:02.

should hold a referendum. The reason for the rise of UKIP is that they

:59:03.:59:09.

have become the beneficiary of protest votes. You have two Mac

:59:10.:59:12.

parties in a coalition government... Let me finish. You

:59:13.:59:17.

have the Labour Party with the most useless leader of the opposition

:59:18.:59:18.

useless leader of the opposhtion ever. A lot of those protest votes

:59:19.:59:25.

`` are voting UKIP. The Libdral `` are voting UKIP. The Liberal

:59:26.:59:32.

Democrats on national polling face being wiped out in these elections.

:59:33.:59:37.

No we do not. I can see no circumstances where we will not hold

:59:38.:59:41.

the seat of London for example, and a seat in the south`east. The only

:59:42.:59:43.

polls that I am interested hn the polls that I am interested in the

:59:44.:59:47.

pores of people go to as thd pores of people go to as thd

:59:48.:59:48.

electorate of the country. I hope electorate of the country. I hope

:59:49.:59:53.

that on Thursday they will return me and other Liberal Democrats. Before

:59:54.:59:59.

we go these time for a quick rundown of the political week in 60 seconds.

:00:00.:00:09.

The Chief Constable of Eden and Somerset was suspended after

:00:10.:00:12.

complaints about inappropriate behaviour towards female melbers of

:00:13.:00:13.

staff. He is said to have been staff. He is said to have been

:00:14.:00:19.

devastated when he was told the news and an investigation is unddr the

:00:20.:00:21.

and an investigation is under the way. More needs to be done to get

:00:22.:00:24.

the Somalian population of Bristol voting. So far this man has signed

:00:25.:00:34.

up 1000 people. A mere of London made another mistake, this time on a

:00:35.:00:39.

visit to Cheltenham. He needed reminding of the name of the local

:00:40.:00:42.

reminding of the name of thd local candidate. I am just here to support

:00:43.:00:51.

Alex Clark. Sorry, start ag`in. And these veteran West Country rock

:00:52.:00:59.

musicians have entered the campaign for wind farms.

:01:00.:01:09.

That is it's from the West this week. Thank you to everyone who has

:01:10.:01:16.

come here today. Join us next Sunday when we will have a full rundown of

:01:17.:01:23.

the local election results. These as a full list of everybody standing on

:01:24.:01:24.

a full list of everybody st`nding on the BBC

:01:25.:01:27.

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

:01:28.:01:39.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

:01:40.:01:46.

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

:01:47.:01:51.

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

:01:52.:01:56.

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

:01:57.:02:00.

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

:02:01.:02:05.

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

:02:06.:02:10.

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

:02:11.:02:16.

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

:02:17.:02:28.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

:02:29.:02:35.

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

:02:36.:02:39.

long time. It keeps us in a job We are joined now by the managing

:02:40.:02:43.

director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the

:02:44.:02:49.

polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to

:02:50.:02:52.

do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are

:02:53.:02:58.

going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high

:02:59.:03:01.

turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply

:03:02.:03:08.

not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on

:03:09.:03:12.

those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really

:03:13.:03:15.

benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,

:03:16.:03:20.

democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are

:03:21.:03:28.

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

:03:29.:03:34.

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

:03:35.:03:37.

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

:03:38.:03:43.

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

:03:44.:03:48.

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

:03:49.:04:02.

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

:04:03.:04:11.

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

:04:12.:04:17.

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

:04:18.:04:22.

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

:04:23.:04:25.

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

:04:26.:04:29.

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

:04:30.:04:36.

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

:04:37.:04:41.

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We

:04:42.:04:45.

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote

:04:46.:04:49.

share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did

:04:50.:04:52.

vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming

:04:53.:04:55.

from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is

:04:56.:05:02.

that ultimately, every single establishment party should be

:05:03.:05:05.

worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really

:05:06.:05:10.

do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on

:05:11.:05:13.

their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there

:05:14.:05:20.

is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's

:05:21.:05:26.

right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that

:05:27.:05:30.

they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like

:05:31.:05:35.

immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political

:05:36.:05:38.

parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest

:05:39.:05:43.

that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be

:05:44.:05:51.

right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I

:05:52.:05:58.

would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this

:05:59.:06:01.

one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because

:06:02.:06:04.

of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder

:06:05.:06:08.

whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of

:06:09.:06:15.

Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about

:06:16.:06:19.

voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely

:06:20.:06:24.

to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We

:06:25.:06:28.

underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I

:06:29.:06:36.

think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other

:06:37.:06:41.

standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in

:06:42.:06:44.

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick,

:06:45.:06:47.

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick you

:06:48.:06:48.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

:06:49.:06:54.

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

:06:55.:06:57.

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

:06:58.:07:01.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

:07:02.:07:08.

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

:07:09.:07:13.

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

:07:14.:07:17.

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

:07:18.:07:20.

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

:07:21.:07:25.

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

:07:26.:07:29.

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

:07:30.:07:35.

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

:07:36.:07:41.

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

:07:42.:07:45.

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

:07:46.:07:49.

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

:07:50.:07:53.

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

:07:54.:08:00.

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

:08:01.:08:03.

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

:08:04.:08:07.

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

:08:08.:08:13.

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

:08:14.:08:18.

that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

:08:19.:08:22.

election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

:08:23.:08:26.

the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

:08:27.:08:30.

parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

:08:31.:08:35.

will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or

:08:36.:08:39.

UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is

:08:40.:08:44.

about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell

:08:45.:08:49.

yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will

:08:50.:08:54.

have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the

:08:55.:09:07.

screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

:09:08.:09:12.

be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the

:09:13.:09:18.

mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And

:09:19.:09:22.

there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in

:09:23.:09:26.

the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There

:09:27.:09:30.

are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an

:09:31.:09:38.

honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If

:09:39.:09:46.

Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is

:09:47.:09:50.

nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't

:09:51.:09:55.

there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could

:09:56.:10:04.

happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be

:10:05.:10:08.

replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have

:10:09.:10:12.

to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David

:10:13.:10:17.

Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the

:10:18.:10:21.

right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is

:10:22.:10:26.

quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find

:10:27.:10:31.

the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories

:10:32.:10:36.

want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are

:10:37.:10:39.

right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big

:10:40.:10:45.

thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris

:10:46.:10:48.

Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the

:10:49.:10:53.

chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But

:10:54.:11:01.

where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called

:11:02.:11:04.

Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.

:11:05.:11:08.

And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not

:11:09.:11:12.

lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And

:11:13.:11:18.

some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,

:11:19.:11:21.

Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression

:11:22.:11:24.

that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed

:11:25.:11:30.

Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this

:11:31.:11:34.

rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although

:11:35.:11:37.

that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in

:11:38.:11:44.

the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the

:11:45.:11:49.

economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on

:11:50.:11:53.

your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference

:11:54.:11:58.

between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was

:11:59.:12:00.

elected in 2008 after the crash, so elected in 2008 after the crash so

:12:01.:12:04.

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

:12:05.:12:10.

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

:12:11.:12:13.

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

:12:14.:12:18.

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

:12:19.:12:23.

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

:12:24.:12:26.

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

:12:27.:12:33.

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

:12:34.:12:39.

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

:12:40.:12:44.

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

:12:45.:12:46.

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

:12:47.:12:54.

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

:12:55.:13:01.

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

:13:02.:13:06.

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

:13:07.:13:10.

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday

:13:11.:13:14.

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC

:13:15.:13:18.

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

:13:19.:13:22.

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

:13:23.:13:26.

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

:13:27.:13:30.

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday

:13:31.:13:33.

The Sunday before we go to the polls in local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to the culture secretary Sajid Javid, Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes and Labour's Hilary Benn.


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