13/07/2014 Sunday Politics West


13/07/2014

Andrew Neil and David Garmston with the latest political news and debate. Andrew is joined by Scotland's deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon to discuss Scotland's referendum.


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Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay

:00:37.:00:42.

As the campaign heads for the final furlong,

:00:43.:00:46.

what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?

:00:47.:00:50.

The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.

:00:51.:00:53.

David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.

:00:54.:00:57.

Many of those tipped for promotion are women.

:00:58.:00:59.

So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or

:01:00.:01:03.

And don't know whether to support Germany or

:01:04.:01:12.

In the West, the return of the slave political guide to the World Cup.

:01:13.:01:27.

In the West, the return of the slave trade.

:01:28.:01:38.

It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the

:01:39.:01:41.

Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis

:01:42.:01:46.

we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.

:01:47.:01:50.

And for top political analysis you may

:01:51.:01:52.

as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick

:01:53.:01:57.

David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.

:01:58.:02:07.

The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be

:02:08.:02:09.

in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.

:02:10.:02:12.

The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,

:02:13.:02:15.

reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox

:02:16.:02:17.

is in line for a return to the political front line.

:02:18.:02:20.

But there's general agreement that women will do well and some

:02:21.:02:27.

of the old men in suits guard will do badly.

:02:28.:02:31.

Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.

:02:32.:02:40.

It's good to make parliament more representative.

:02:41.:02:47.

But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create

:02:48.:02:50.

injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.

:02:51.:02:54.

And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being

:02:55.:03:02.

accelerated too far too fast and they come to

:03:03.:03:04.

a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.

:03:05.:03:10.

I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is

:03:11.:03:23.

going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not

:03:24.:03:31.

be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It

:03:32.:03:37.

is an un-written pact in that the media and

:03:38.:05:09.

is an un-written pact in that the that picture of the all-male bench

:05:10.:05:13.

at Prime Minister's Questions because visibly it gave you the

:05:14.:05:16.

problem that you have been talking about. I do not think he has allowed

:05:17.:05:22.

it to be all-male since that embarrassing image. I can understand

:05:23.:05:26.

the criticism made of this approach if it was the case that all the

:05:27.:05:29.

women being promoted by talentless but you have to be very harsh to

:05:30.:05:37.

look at them and say that they would have much less to offer than the

:05:38.:05:51.

likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be pro-feminist. The tests for David

:05:52.:05:55.

Cameron is that having raised expectations he has to give them

:05:56.:05:59.

substantial jobs. They have to be given departments to run or big

:06:00.:06:04.

portfolios to carry. If they are given media campaign positions in

:06:05.:06:07.

the run-up to the election it looks perfunctorily. He is under some

:06:08.:06:15.

trouble to perhaps suggest a female commissioner to the European Union

:06:16.:06:21.

Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has made clear that if he proposes a

:06:22.:06:26.

woman candidate they will get a better job. Saying they would like

:06:27.:06:35.

ten out of the 28 to be women. We are going to get the name of the

:06:36.:06:39.

British candidate at the same time as the reshuffle. The first

:06:40.:06:48.

face-to-face meeting, he will be able to put a name. There are other

:06:49.:06:52.

names in the frame. People like Archie Norman. That come from? His

:06:53.:07:04.

name is in the frame. There would be great scepticism of giving it to

:07:05.:07:07.

Andrew Lansley. People would think he was the man who mucked up the

:07:08.:07:11.

reform of the NHS. Who is it going to be? Either a woman or a man. I

:07:12.:07:20.

would not be surprised if they go for someone believe dynamic. Someone

:07:21.:07:26.

who would square the party. Would that not mean a by-election? It

:07:27.:07:32.

might. She is a high profile Eurosceptic. She is a very competent

:07:33.:07:37.

former banker. It would be the smart choice. I have no idea but my

:07:38.:07:42.

favourite rumour is Michael Howard. That had some legs for a while.

:07:43.:07:51.

The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street predict with confidence that the PM

:07:52.:07:55.

is going to promote more women in his cabinet reshuffle.

:07:56.:07:57.

The move can be seen as part of a move across British public life

:07:58.:08:00.

to do more to make our institutions less male and less white.

:08:01.:08:03.

But as the list of schemes to encourage diversity

:08:04.:08:05.

grows ever-longer, have we abandoned the idea of appointment by merit?

:08:06.:08:16.

Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for new trains. It does not get more

:08:17.:08:24.

macho than the Crossrail project. When Crossrail looked at the

:08:25.:08:27.

construction industry they realise that less than 20% was made up

:08:28.:08:38.

construction industry they realise women and they asked, can we fix it?

:08:39.:08:38.

They are trying with a recruitment drive that has brought in female

:08:39.:08:44.

engineers like this woman. She even has a tunnel named after her. Having

:08:45.:08:49.

more female engineers and construction brings a bigger range

:08:50.:08:53.

of opinions, a bigger range of ideas, more diversity, into the

:08:54.:08:58.

industry, and makes it better as a whole. It is the issue being

:08:59.:09:02.

grappled in another male dominated workplace, the Cabinet. There is

:09:03.:09:07.

about to be a reach shuffle and the rumour is David Cameron is going to

:09:08.:09:11.

promote a lot of female ministers. It was a lack of promotion that

:09:12.:09:16.

annoyed Harriet Harman this week. She claimed Gordon Brown did not

:09:17.:09:19.

make her Deputy Prime Minister because she was a woman. It was

:09:20.:09:25.

strange that in a hard-fought highly contested election to be deputy

:09:26.:09:29.

leader of the Labour Party, and having won against men in the

:09:30.:09:33.

Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy leader of the Labour Party I

:09:34.:09:36.

discovered that I was not to be appointed as Deputy Prime Minister.

:09:37.:09:41.

For women in this country, no matter how able they are, the matter how

:09:42.:09:48.

hard they might work, they are still not equal. There are initiatives to

:09:49.:09:52.

make the world feel more equal. In the City the EU wants a quarter for

:09:53.:09:58.

women in the boardroom but that goal of making 40% of the top floor

:09:59.:10:03.

female. At the BBC the boss of the TV division says no panel show

:10:04.:10:09.

should ever be all-male. In the ever glamorous movie business the British

:10:10.:10:13.

film Institute announced their new thematic system to get lottery

:10:14.:10:19.

funding projects improving diversity on screen and off and helping social

:10:20.:10:25.

mobility. Employers like Crossrail are not allowed to positively

:10:26.:10:30.

discriminate but under the quality act of 2010 if two candidate for a

:10:31.:10:35.

job are just as good you are allowed to base your decision on

:10:36.:10:37.

characteristics like race, sexuality and gender. Some worry it has

:10:38.:10:44.

chipped away at the idea of hiring on merit. A woman and three men

:10:45.:10:52.

going for a job, two of the men are really good and the woman is not

:10:53.:10:55.

quite as good but she gets the job anyway. That will create injustice,

:10:56.:11:02.

a feeling that she did not deserve the job, resentment. It does not

:11:03.:11:10.

advance equality in society at all. On this project they want to leave a

:11:11.:11:16.

concrete legacy of a more diverse construction industry. The question

:11:17.:11:20.

is, what tools do you use when it comes to the rest of society?

:11:21.:11:31.

I'm joined now by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown,

:11:32.:11:33.

a columnist for the Independent, and by Munira Mirza, the deputy

:11:34.:11:36.

mayor of London responsible for education and culture.

:11:37.:11:43.

Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches though. Should David Cameron be

:11:44.:11:51.

promoting women? He is going to do it anyway. He should have a long

:11:52.:11:59.

time ago. It does not feel quite right that a few months before the

:12:00.:12:03.

election it would do the party a lot of good to be seen as a party

:12:04.:12:08.

properly reflective of the entire population. He should promote women

:12:09.:12:14.

because they are women? I think he should think about lots of different

:12:15.:12:17.

factors, whether the people he wants promote have proven themselves in

:12:18.:12:24.

their current reefs, whether they are good performers in the media,

:12:25.:12:26.

whether they represent different parts of the party, but the main

:12:27.:12:32.

principle is to promote on basis of merit. There are many talented women

:12:33.:12:37.

who fill that description. It should be that merit is the important thing

:12:38.:12:43.

rather than what you were born with. The thing about positive

:12:44.:12:45.

discrimination as it flies in the face of that kind of principle. You

:12:46.:12:52.

are shaking your head. We have always had positive discrimination.

:12:53.:12:54.

Men of a certain class have appointed in their own image because

:12:55.:13:01.

they feel most comfortable with that. We have had unspoken positive

:13:02.:13:06.

discrimination in this country and every other country throughout

:13:07.:13:12.

history. We are asking as women, all minorities, let us get into the same

:13:13.:13:18.

game. What do you say? You cannot solve the racism or the sexism of

:13:19.:13:22.

the past by more racism and sexism. It is not the past. There are

:13:23.:13:28.

complex reasons why a smaller number of women will appear in certain

:13:29.:13:33.

industries. It has a lot to do with childcare, education, expected. You

:13:34.:13:37.

cannot short cut that by setting a target. That is not how you achieve

:13:38.:13:43.

equality. Things are changing and more women are appearing in

:13:44.:13:45.

engineering and so on but it will take time. My worry is that these

:13:46.:13:50.

kinds of measures are counter-productive and undermine the

:13:51.:13:53.

perception that women can do it on their own merit rather

:13:54.:13:54.

counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it than

:13:55.:13:58.

because they need a helping hand. It is not a helping hand. It is to say,

:13:59.:14:02.

we are as good as men and these hidden barriers. Dot. Either they

:14:03.:14:13.

are not as good or they do not want it, which is just how we persuade

:14:14.:14:15.

are not as good or they do not want it, which ourselves that it is not

:14:16.:14:21.

happening, or there are barriers. How we judge meritocracy is at the

:14:22.:14:26.

heart of it. Are lots of industries won there are not that many women,

:14:27.:14:33.

such as engineering. We need more engineers generally. I think it is

:14:34.:14:39.

fine to try to encourage more women to study that subject. By setting a

:14:40.:14:46.

target you put pressure on an organisation. You tried to ignore

:14:47.:14:55.

the complex reasons why women do not go into those sectors. I think an

:14:56.:15:18.

all-female short list achieved miracle in Parliament. This is

:15:19.:15:23.

following up from having an injection of women coming up because

:15:24.:15:27.

the system was changed and a large percentage of women went into

:15:28.:15:34.

Parliament under the all-female short list were brilliant, so why

:15:35.:15:41.

not? So if the Prime Minister is mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has

:15:42.:15:47.

to be female and vice versa? Yes, absolutely, 50-50. We need to

:15:48.:15:56.

reflect the population. If we want to play this as a symbolic gesture,

:15:57.:16:03.

ideally we should have one of each. Why should a man get the job if you

:16:04.:16:07.

have a great female prime minister and a great female Deputy Prime

:16:08.:16:16.

Minister? I personally wouldn't mind this. I hear the disgruntled man and

:16:17.:16:25.

I want to come -- them to come with us. You're choosing people on the

:16:26.:16:30.

basis of traits they were born with. Are there too many Indian

:16:31.:16:36.

doctors in the NHS? I would argue not. Given that we tend to have male

:16:37.:16:41.

prime ministers rather than female ones, and we don't see another

:16:42.:16:45.

female one coming down the pipe very quickly... In the time before women

:16:46.:16:56.

short lists by the way. If you had a male prime minister with a female

:16:57.:17:00.

Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that give some balance? Why women? Why

:17:01.:17:06.

not working class person, which group do you prioritise? I would go

:17:07.:17:11.

with you that we need something fundamental to change. This idea

:17:12.:17:15.

that what we have now is a reflection of a genuine meritocracy

:17:16.:17:19.

is highly questionable. I would argue that when you look at the

:17:20.:17:22.

statistics things are changing. argue that when you look at the

:17:23.:17:24.

statistics things There are more women appearing in parts of public

:17:25.:17:29.

life, that is a long-term trend, but if you are trying to appoint people

:17:30.:17:36.

on what they were born with... That is not the only reason but it is an

:17:37.:17:40.

additional reason. She has to be able to do the job, obviously. I am

:17:41.:17:47.

saying the policy of hazard to discrimination explicitly state that

:17:48.:17:51.

you should choose somebody who is female because they are female. At

:17:52.:17:55.

the moment there is already enough suspicion about women who are

:17:56.:18:01.

successful to get to the senior position and if you institutionalise

:18:02.:18:05.

it you reinforce that suspicion. Harriet Harman is still complaining

:18:06.:18:11.

women are not being treated fairly. I think the policy reinforces the

:18:12.:18:16.

prejudice that women are not getting there because they are treated on

:18:17.:18:22.

the same basis. Although you may not want to have the all-female short

:18:23.:18:25.

list forever, wasn't it the kind of shock to the system that made a

:18:26.:18:31.

visible change in female representation, which the Tory side

:18:32.:18:39.

hasn't got? Of course it will work short-term but longer term it has a

:18:40.:18:44.

very degrading effect on the principle of equality and the fact

:18:45.:18:48.

Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't treated equally, whether it is true

:18:49.:18:52.

or not, the perception is still there. A number of women find this

:18:53.:19:00.

position must be reserved for a woman lying patronising, and

:19:01.:19:05.

speaking of patronising women, you spoken your Independent column, she

:19:06.:19:14.

presses all of the buttons for white people... Was that patronising and

:19:15.:19:19.

offensive? Probably. I wrote it because I felt that at the time but

:19:20.:19:24.

the point is that I was a token when I was appointed. The paper brought

:19:25.:19:31.

me in because I was a woman and I was a muslin or whatever. You are

:19:32.:19:36.

not writing about yourself. I was writing... It doesn't mean you don't

:19:37.:19:49.

criticise other women. We absolutely have to be tough, Manira is tough

:19:50.:19:57.

and so am I. Do you want to take back what you wrote? No. Do you

:19:58.:20:03.

really think positive discrimination has gone too far? I think there is

:20:04.:20:10.

already a suspicion out there that in certain sectors women are being

:20:11.:20:15.

promoted for the wrong reasons or ethnic minorities are being promoted

:20:16.:20:19.

for the wrong reasons. That is a shame and my worry is that by tying

:20:20.:20:25.

funding to your ethnicity or your gender, by saying you will get a

:20:26.:20:30.

promotion if you check that box, but you feel that resentment and

:20:31.:20:34.

prejudice and undermine the case for inequality. I wanted to be treated

:20:35.:20:44.

equally, because I am capable of doing that job. Only two months to

:20:45.:20:50.

go before Scotland takes its biggest constitutional decision in 300 years

:20:51.:20:59.

- should it quit or stay with the UK? For some in Scotland campaign

:21:00.:21:04.

has been going on forever. What has been the impact on the campaign to

:21:05.:21:06.

date? been the impact on the campaign to

:21:07.:21:52.

George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso

:21:53.:22:50.

George Osborne says there will be no have any of it in an independent

:22:51.:22:57.

Scotland, why take the risk? All of these things should be the case

:22:58.:23:01.

because they are in the best interests of Scotland and the rest

:23:02.:23:07.

of the UK but we want the powers to enable us to grow our economy

:23:08.:23:13.

faster, to be productive, and overtime increased the prosperity of

:23:14.:23:17.

people living in Scotland. We also want powers over our social security

:23:18.:23:22.

system so that we can create a system that meets our needs, one

:23:23.:23:28.

that also has a safety net for the most vulnerable people in our

:23:29.:23:32.

society. Independence is about letting us decide our own

:23:33.:23:39.

priorities. You didn't answer my question, you cannot guarantee you

:23:40.:23:42.

would be able to keep the pound within a monetary union, stay in

:23:43.:23:48.

NATO and the EU, you cannot guarantee you could produce any of

:23:49.:23:53.

these things, correct? I would argue that we can because these things are

:23:54.:23:58.

also in the interest of the rest of the UK. No country can be prevented

:23:59.:24:04.

from using the pound, I suggest we use that within a formal monetary

:24:05.:24:09.

union. We have had the UK minister quoted in the Guardian saying the

:24:10.:24:13.

position of the UK Government right now is one based on campaign

:24:14.:24:18.

rhetoric and following a yes vote, of course there would be a currency

:24:19.:24:24.

union. Who is that minister? The Minister is unnamed, but

:24:25.:24:29.

nevertheless that story in the Guardian was a solid one and not

:24:30.:24:35.

substantially denied. So you are basing your monetary policy on one

:24:36.:24:40.

on named minister in one story? Basing it on Common sense because

:24:41.:24:50.

monetary union would be in the best interests for Scotland but also

:24:51.:24:53.

overwhelmingly in the interests of the rest of the UK, given their

:24:54.:24:59.

trading relationship with Scotland and the contribution Scotland's

:25:00.:25:06.

exports make. We are having a very good debate and the UK Government

:25:07.:25:12.

and the no campaign, and this is not a criticism, want to talk up in --

:25:13.:25:21.

uncertainty to make people feel scared, but after independence there

:25:22.:25:26.

will be constructed process of negotiation. Let's stick with the

:25:27.:25:30.

monetary union because most economists agree it would be very

:25:31.:25:33.

good for an independent Scotland to have a monetary union but George

:25:34.:25:39.

Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander are unequivocal, they say you won't

:25:40.:25:44.

get it. You claim they are bluffing but again you cannot guarantee that

:25:45.:25:50.

so why the risk? I would say the benefits of independence are

:25:51.:25:54.

substantial but I would also say to George Osborne and his counterparts

:25:55.:25:58.

in the other parties that it would be a very brave Chancellor that says

:25:59.:26:02.

to businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary

:26:03.:26:06.

additional transaction costs of half a very brave Chancellor that says to

:26:07.:26:09.

businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary

:26:10.:26:13.

additional transaction costs of half. What we are doing is making a

:26:14.:26:18.

case that is based on common sense and voters in Scotland will listen

:26:19.:26:23.

to that case being put forward by the other side as well, and they

:26:24.:26:28.

will come to a judgement of the common-sense position. Let's look at

:26:29.:26:35.

EU membership because you haven't been able to guarantee the monetary

:26:36.:26:44.

union. When President Barroso said that a seamless transition to EU

:26:45.:26:49.

membership for an independent Scotland was anything but certain,

:26:50.:26:53.

and one said it could even be impossible, you dismissed him

:26:54.:27:00.

because he was standing down, but been -- venue EU president says the

:27:01.:27:09.

same, do you dismissed him? What we are doing... I should say at the

:27:10.:27:13.

outset of this, we have said repeatedly to the UK Government,

:27:14.:27:18.

let's go jointly and ask for a formal opinion on the EU

:27:19.:27:23.

commission. The EU commission have said they will only do that at this

:27:24.:27:29.

stage if the UK Government ask for it, they are point blank refusing to

:27:30.:27:35.

do that, you have to ask why? It is in their interests to talk up

:27:36.:27:41.

uncertainty. Scotland is an integral part of the European Union, we have

:27:42.:27:45.

been for 40 years, we comply with the rules and regulations... Mr

:27:46.:27:51.

Juncker knows all of that but he still says it will be anything but a

:27:52.:27:57.

seamless transition. He said you could not join the European Union by

:27:58.:28:02.

sending a letter, that is not our proposal. We set down a robust

:28:03.:28:16.

proposal and the timescale we think is reasonable under these

:28:17.:28:21.

circumstances. There are many nationals of other states living in

:28:22.:28:26.

Scotland right now, if we were to be outside of the European Union for

:28:27.:28:30.

any period of time, something the current treaty doesn't even provide

:28:31.:28:34.

for, they would lose their right to stay here. The interests of Scotland

:28:35.:28:38.

and the interests of European Union are in favour of a seamless

:28:39.:28:43.

transition. It comes down to common sense and people in Scotland will

:28:44.:28:45.

make sense and people in Scotland will

:28:46.:28:48.

their own judgement on who is talking the common-sense. What about

:28:49.:28:55.

NATO, two years ago you told Newsnight the SNP's position is that

:28:56.:29:00.

we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a democratic debate, we looked at

:29:01.:29:05.

whether it would be in the interests of an independent Scotland, which

:29:06.:29:09.

forms a significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic and

:29:10.:29:18.

the party changed its mind. It did so in a thoroughly democratic way.

:29:19.:29:26.

That is the nature of democracy. Would you accept the protection of

:29:27.:29:36.

the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is no doubt the SNP's position is that

:29:37.:29:42.

we do not want nuclear weapons in Scotland. That is not what I asked.

:29:43.:29:49.

The world rid themselves of nuclear weapons. One of the interesting

:29:50.:29:54.

point is of the 28 member countries of Natal 25 do not have nuclear

:29:55.:30:00.

weapons. An independent Scotland... I asked if you would accept the

:30:01.:30:09.

nuclear umbrella. The key feature of NATO's military dog train is now

:30:10.:30:15.

clear shrike. We would accept the basis of which NATO is founded but

:30:16.:30:23.

we would argue two things. We want Trident removed from Scotland rather

:30:24.:30:26.

than have a situation where might we are spending ?100 billion over the

:30:27.:30:32.

next generation replacing Trident and we would argue within the

:30:33.:30:34.

international community that the world should move much more quickly

:30:35.:30:40.

to rid itself of nuclear weapons. That is the principal position and

:30:41.:30:43.

won the SNP has held consistently for many years. You would get rid of

:30:44.:30:50.

one of the key parts of the NATO deterrent based in Scotland. You

:30:51.:30:55.

would kick that out. You would not accept all of the club rules because

:30:56.:31:01.

you do not like the idea of nuclear. Why would they like a member like

:31:02.:31:06.

you in? Because Scotland is a significant part of the territory of

:31:07.:31:10.

the North Atlantic. You do not subscribe to the rules. 25 of the

:31:11.:31:15.

member states of NATO are non-nuclear members. You are saying

:31:16.:31:24.

you do not follow the doctrine. NATO has said it wants to move away from

:31:25.:31:29.

reliance on nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would be

:31:30.:31:33.

entering the majority mainstream of NATO as a country that did not have

:31:34.:31:37.

nuclear weapons. By leading by example our moral authority and

:31:38.:31:41.

encouraging others to do likewise would be increased. Money and oil,

:31:42.:31:48.

the finance minister has said that an independent Scotland would

:31:49.:31:50.

increase public spending by 3% a year. He would pay for that by

:31:51.:31:56.

borrowing. Your First Minister says he is going to stash money in an oil

:31:57.:32:00.

fund. You're going to borrow and save. How does that work? There are

:32:01.:32:09.

two points. Firstly in terms of the outlook for finances and what is one

:32:10.:32:12.

of the central debates of this referendum campaign, austerity that

:32:13.:32:17.

we know will continue if we stay as part of the Westminster system

:32:18.:32:23.

versus prosperity. The economy can afford a higher level of increase in

:32:24.:32:27.

public spending while we continue to have deficit levels at a sustainable

:32:28.:32:33.

level. What is the point of borrowing and saving at the same

:32:34.:32:38.

time? People who have a mortgage and the savings account would not

:32:39.:32:41.

themselves what the wisdom of that is. This is based on recommendations

:32:42.:32:48.

of our expert fiscal Commission that as borrowing reduces to sustainable

:32:49.:32:53.

levels it makes sense to start saving a proportion of our oil

:32:54.:32:58.

wealth. In Norway, which has many similarities to Scotland, they have

:32:59.:33:04.

an oil fund worth ?500 billion. Scotland is part of the Westminster

:33:05.:33:09.

system is sitting on a share of UK debt. We can continue to allow our

:33:10.:33:16.

oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to be mismanaged or we can decide we

:33:17.:33:19.

are going to manage that resource better in the years to come. Your

:33:20.:33:26.

figures do not add up unless you are about oil prices and revenue and you

:33:27.:33:29.

have been consistently wrong in your predictions. Last year you forecast

:33:30.:33:33.

that revenues would be the .7 billion more than they actually work

:33:34.:33:43.

-- 3.7 billion. The cost of the Scottish school system gone. There

:33:44.:33:49.

were particular reasons for that in terms of interruption to production

:33:50.:33:52.

and bigger levels of investment. Used ill have to find the money. Let

:33:53.:33:59.

me explain. They are based on robust assumptions, firstly a production

:34:00.:34:03.

estimates that is in line with the estimates of the oil and gas

:34:04.:34:07.

industry. Use of figures that are based on production of 10 billion

:34:08.:34:13.

barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been wrong as well. It is 24 billion left

:34:14.:34:19.

to be recovered. That is what is in the UK Government's oil and gas

:34:20.:34:23.

strategy so production in line with industry estimates and an oil price

:34:24.:34:30.

of $110 per barrel which is flat in cash terms would be a real terms

:34:31.:34:36.

reduction. The Department of energy is estimating $128 per barrel so our

:34:37.:34:40.

estimate compared to that is cautious. These are robust estimates

:34:41.:34:46.

based on robust assumptions. Except they have been wrong. Finally, we

:34:47.:34:53.

hear a lot from you and your fellow nationalists, you want a

:34:54.:34:57.

Scandinavian style social democracy, you know how to spend the money but

:34:58.:35:02.

you never tell us about social democratic levels of taxation. Also

:35:03.:35:06.

should grizzlies have higher levels of tax in Scotland does at the

:35:07.:35:13.

moment -- all social grizzlies. I want a Scottish style of social

:35:14.:35:20.

democracy. Free education, free medicines and balancing the books

:35:21.:35:24.

every single year. We want to get more people into work in Scotland,

:35:25.:35:29.

raise the level of distribution in the Labour market and make the

:35:30.:35:32.

economy more productive so we are raising the overall tax revenue.

:35:33.:35:39.

Over the last 33 years we have generated more taxpayer head of

:35:40.:35:41.

population than is the case and the rest of the UK. Those last 33 years,

:35:42.:35:49.

some of those years oil prices would have been high and in others they

:35:50.:35:53.

would have been law but we take different decisions. A report showed

:35:54.:35:57.

that if we go as part of the Westminster system down the plate --

:35:58.:36:03.

route of replacing Trident then the cost will be as high as ?4 billion

:36:04.:36:09.

every year. Our share of that is the hundred million pounds a year. Let

:36:10.:36:14.

us get access to our own resources so we can make different and better

:36:15.:36:18.

decisions about how to spend the resources we have. You are promising

:36:19.:36:24.

Scandinavian style social democratic levels of public spending but you

:36:25.:36:29.

say you will not need a top rate of tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia

:36:30.:36:36.

has, that all 25%, which is what Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You

:36:37.:36:41.

are going to have the spending but none of the taxes that make it

:36:42.:36:46.

possible in Scandinavia. For mischievous reasons you are met --

:36:47.:36:50.

misrepresenting what I am saying. The Scottish economy can afford it

:36:51.:36:57.

and we want to generate more wealth in our economy. We want to use the

:36:58.:37:01.

existing resources Scotland has. We are the 14th richest country in the

:37:02.:37:06.

world in terms of what we produce. We do not want to be wasting

:37:07.:37:12.

resources. We want to be spending resources on the things that other

:37:13.:37:15.

priority for the people of Scotland. These are the benefits and the

:37:16.:37:19.

opportunities really get if we take the opportunity of voting yes and

:37:20.:37:22.

becoming independent. is our last show for the summer.

:37:23.:37:59.

Coming up, the council is getting into a pickle. Orders have been

:38:00.:38:12.

issued over bins, car parks, is he stepping on people's toes? Guests

:38:13.:38:22.

today will be speaking in a moment, but first, Westminster is reeling

:38:23.:38:27.

from allegations of child sex abuse dating back to the 1980s. Two

:38:28.:38:32.

enquiries were both welcomed by Tessa Munter, the MP for Wales. She

:38:33.:38:47.

was something I did not speak about until I was in my early 30s when I

:38:48.:38:52.

was expecting my first child. So I absolutely understand how difficult

:38:53.:38:59.

it is to live with that kind of pressure. And it is pressure.

:39:00.:39:09.

Immense pressure. You can't live with yourself because you feel

:39:10.:39:14.

guilty, and that is not true. What do you make of her decision to come

:39:15.:39:16.

out, you this week, tell us about that.

:39:17.:40:37.

Well, I have a neurological illness which affects my muscle control on

:40:38.:40:41.

my left side. Most journalists in Bristol and London know all about

:40:42.:40:49.

it. I made a speech a year ago and the Daily Mail referred to me as

:40:50.:40:55.

being stiff. I referred to this in an interview recently in a magazine

:40:56.:40:57.

and then got a lot of comments on the back of it. He has written me a

:40:58.:41:08.

None of us want to be treated as None of us want to be treated as

:41:09.:41:13.

robots or boring creatures. We want some colour and personality to come

:41:14.:41:18.

out of it. But there is a line that should not be crossed. People should

:41:19.:41:21.

not poke fun if it is something physical. The House of Commons is a

:41:22.:41:28.

theatre of cruelty. You are all trying to make each other look

:41:29.:41:35.

silly. Often when I give talks to people about making speeches I say

:41:36.:41:39.

the House of Commons is probably the most unforgiving stage in the entire

:41:40.:41:44.

country on which to try and speak. I enjoy speaking but I'm more worried

:41:45.:41:48.

about what I'm saying rather than how I'm looking. Yet people still

:41:49.:41:59.

want to be an MP. Paul Maynard MP has cerebral palsy. Quite a few MPs

:42:00.:42:05.

have funny voices and they get made fun of. But when he started

:42:06.:42:09.

speaking, there was almost this quick reaction where people were

:42:10.:42:13.

about to make fun of him and then suddenly thought, hang on, this is a

:42:14.:42:19.

disability. But you could say, people cannot help the boys as they

:42:20.:42:23.

were born with, whether it is a disability or just the way they are.

:42:24.:42:29.

Now, you might have thought Bristol had long since cut its links with

:42:30.:42:36.

the slave trade. Not so. A spate of arrests and prosecutions suggest

:42:37.:42:39.

many adults and children are still being abused and exploited. The

:42:40.:42:45.

government is suggesting more support for victims and harsher

:42:46.:42:49.

penalties. It is a start, but some think the law should go further.

:42:50.:43:02.

Documented on film, the harrowing and true story of a Vietnamese

:43:03.:43:06.

teenager smuggled to Britain on the promise of work. This is where he

:43:07.:43:12.

ended up. When a cannabis factory was raided, it was he who was

:43:13.:43:19.

arrested and jailed. Latest figures show last year 1700 people were

:43:20.:43:24.

referred as potential victims of trafficking. That is a 47% increase

:43:25.:43:30.

from two years before. The real extent will be much higher than the

:43:31.:43:37.

statistics. That is why films like this are important, to raise

:43:38.:43:42.

awareness of a crime that raises profits that challenge the drug

:43:43.:43:47.

trade. A Bristol charity is running a competition based on real`life

:43:48.:43:53.

stories. The short film competition this year is looking particularly at

:43:54.:43:57.

forced labour cases in the UK and overseas where the products from

:43:58.:44:01.

those forced labour supply chains and up on UK high street. The

:44:02.:44:06.

government 's new Modern Slavery Bill aims to tackle the problem. The

:44:07.:44:11.

Home Office says it is the first of its kind in Europe. It would

:44:12.:44:17.

increase the maximum jail term from 14 years to life. It would also

:44:18.:44:26.

provide better support for victims, forcing their captors to pay out

:44:27.:44:29.

compensation and giving them protection from prosecution. I think

:44:30.:44:35.

businesses ought to care about whether there is slavery in their

:44:36.:44:40.

supply chain. If that gives them an additional burden, that is something

:44:41.:44:46.

they have a moral obligation to do. For charities, the bill cannot come

:44:47.:44:51.

soon enough. This centre in Bath helps child victims of slavery,

:44:52.:44:55.

offering therapy in the form of counselling or just play in a safe

:44:56.:45:02.

place. Currently, there is only 45 days provision to support victims.

:45:03.:45:06.

Ideally, we would like to see a longer`term look at how you can

:45:07.:45:15.

restore lives. Another victim, another film telling the story.

:45:16.:45:19.

Campaigners hope soon it will just be documenting history.

:45:20.:45:29.

We are joined by Andrew Wallace from a Bristol charity offering support

:45:30.:45:31.

for people who have survived slavery. There are five categories

:45:32.:45:42.

of modern slavery. Forced labour, forced criminality, children, and

:45:43.:45:55.

organ trafficking. As Sally said, year on year it went up 47%. In the

:45:56.:46:00.

first six months of this year the number of victims found have gone up

:46:01.:46:06.

40%. That is against a backdrop where most police officers don't

:46:07.:46:08.

understand what they are coming across. As the film said, last

:46:09.:46:19.

year, 1700 people accessed services the government provides as

:46:20.:46:25.

identified victims of slavery, but across the political spectrum,

:46:26.:46:29.

police forces, NGOs, they say that is the tip of the iceberg. We

:46:30.:46:40.

welcome the Modern Slavery Bill. But we need to go further. The Home

:46:41.:46:45.

Secretary said we want this to be a world`class bill and it isn't yet.

:46:46.:46:49.

There are things they need to happen. The three main areas are, we

:46:50.:46:55.

need to bring business into the space in terms of transparency in

:46:56.:47:06.

supply chains. You are particularly keen on pushing this and you spoke

:47:07.:47:10.

on the debate. Is it practical to expect a business to go right back

:47:11.:47:15.

to scratch and find out who has done what with components? Well,

:47:16.:47:22.

sometimes it can get complicated. If you look at the garment industry,

:47:23.:47:26.

trying to source the cotton and the buttons and zips and all the

:47:27.:47:31.

different components. But if you look at the report I cited in the

:47:32.:47:35.

debate about Thai seafood, there aren't so many elements in that

:47:36.:47:40.

chain. I just think if a supermarket is selling seafood, it ought to know

:47:41.:47:45.

about the people catching the seafood at the beginning of the

:47:46.:47:49.

process. Are you talking about big companies like Apple and Primark, or

:47:50.:48:09.

small high street stores? Well, even a small shop, if they have tinned

:48:10.:48:13.

goods, they are getting them from a bigger company down the line. The

:48:14.:48:21.

government is doing something. Enormous progress has been made in

:48:22.:48:26.

this Parliament. We have a contract with the salvation army to help

:48:27.:48:30.

people who have been the victims of trafficking and modern`day slavery.

:48:31.:48:38.

You don't sound terribly convinced that you are doing your utmost. This

:48:39.:48:46.

is the danger, whenever a government legislates to do something

:48:47.:48:49.

ground`breaking. Clearly, opposition parties and charities will say,

:48:50.:48:54.

please, can you go a bit further? I fully understand that, but letters

:48:55.:48:58.

at least recognise we are doing something. On the supply chain

:48:59.:49:03.

issue, it is difficult to legislate for that. We can legislate for what

:49:04.:49:06.

is going on in our own country. It is hard to legislate for what is

:49:07.:49:11.

going on in a global supply chain, to a cotton picker in Bangladesh,

:49:12.:49:18.

for instance. Some would say, slavery is illegal anyway. Why do we

:49:19.:49:22.

need a commissioner and hold apartment for this? They are

:49:23.:49:28.

criminals and there is criminal law existing at the moment. Yes, but the

:49:29.:49:36.

law grew up piecemeal and there has never been any training for

:49:37.:49:40.

front`line agencies to identify and understand it for what it is. It was

:49:41.:49:45.

originally understood as an immigration issue. But it is a

:49:46.:49:48.

criminal issue, with perpetrators and victims. So this bill is going

:49:49.:49:54.

to help prosecute better. With supply chains, we are in a bizarre

:49:55.:50:00.

position where big companies, the investment industry, Tesco,

:50:01.:50:05.

Sainsbury's, they have publicly said we want legislation because it will

:50:06.:50:12.

enable us to do the right thing. Yes, it has business support. We are

:50:13.:50:21.

still talking to companies about it. There is an analogy from product

:50:22.:50:26.

supplied from places of conflict. I would want all countries to say

:50:27.:50:31.

whether they come from the occupied territories of Palestine. Thank you

:50:32.:50:44.

for coming in. Now, it is rumoured Eric Pickles

:50:45.:50:48.

once gathered all his staff together and got them to chant the word

:50:49.:50:56.

localism over and over. What a fun place to work that must be. The

:50:57.:51:00.

story shows how committed he is to giving control to our councils, but

:51:01.:51:05.

after four years have they noticed a difference? We sent our reporter to

:51:06.:51:10.

the biggest gathering of councillors to find out.

:51:11.:51:18.

The British summer in full swing. Among the sun`worshippers taking it

:51:19.:51:24.

easy in Bournemouth, an unlikely gathering. These are councillors at

:51:25.:51:28.

play. They are not just here for the free ice cream. They were here for

:51:29.:51:37.

this. The biggest local government get together in the land. The

:51:38.:51:43.

keynote speaker had already said he wouldn't speak to us, so we brought

:51:44.:51:51.

along our own. The question for delegates, had communities Secretary

:51:52.:51:56.

Eric Pickles done enough for them? He has done a great deal for local

:51:57.:52:00.

government. He is not popular with many people, but I think he has done

:52:01.:52:05.

a great job. I do think any government is ever going to do

:52:06.:52:13.

enough. Yes, please, give us what we want, which is a bit more freedom

:52:14.:52:17.

and no interference from view in particular and the government in

:52:18.:52:23.

general. That interference relates to the various directives from his

:52:24.:52:27.

department. Whether it is telling councils to make their car parks

:52:28.:52:33.

free, insisting on weekly bin collections or scrapping parking

:52:34.:52:35.

enforcement cars he says are often used as cash cows. Then, the man

:52:36.:52:53.

himself arrived. Hello. I lacked `` a lot of the council leaders from

:52:54.:52:58.

the West are year. Have you done enough for these people here in

:52:59.:53:03.

giving them local powers? I've done a lot and I will do a lot more and I

:53:04.:53:09.

love them to bits. Will you give them powers to keep council tax in

:53:10.:53:15.

Bristol? I will give him pretty much everything he wants, subject to

:53:16.:53:21.

negotiation. Some say you should not be telling councils what to do when

:53:22.:53:26.

it comes to weekly bin collections or camera cars going down the city

:53:27.:53:33.

's. I'm here to offer helpful suggestions. Do you think you've got

:53:34.:53:41.

the balance right? Yes, because I am a helpful guide. And off he went.

:53:42.:53:47.

But I was puzzled by the Mayor of Bristol's warm greeting given that

:53:48.:53:55.

he has said other things in the past. Some of the statement he makes

:53:56.:54:09.

about wanting to micromanage local government are not helpful or

:54:10.:54:13.

encouraging. But there are ministers absolutely up for transferring more

:54:14.:54:19.

control. Do you mean his comments on those CCTV cars you mean his

:54:20.:54:21.

comments on those CCTV cars using Bristol? Absolutely. I'm relaxed

:54:22.:54:26.

about the reduction of those cameras. I don't love them. Nobody

:54:27.:54:31.

loves them. But there is a principal bad ` we should make those decisions

:54:32.:54:35.

locally rather than having them imposed on us. At a hard day, we

:54:36.:54:45.

thought it was time to bring our Eric down to the beach. For some

:54:46.:54:53.

councillors at least here in Bournemouth, they think this man's

:54:54.:55:01.

promises have fallen a little flat. Eric Pickles is your boss, Stephen,

:55:02.:55:08.

isn't he? Well, here's my coalition colleague. Nick Clegg my boss. Tell

:55:09.:55:17.

us about your colleague. When he talks about localism, is it a sham?

:55:18.:55:25.

Well, localism is one of my responsibilities, actually. This

:55:26.:55:28.

government has given away more power to local areas than any previous

:55:29.:55:32.

government to enable people to shape their own communities. For example,

:55:33.:55:35.

neighbourhood plans. So why do local authorities feel there is less

:55:36.:55:45.

control? Well, the localism act gives power to local people. There

:55:46.:55:52.

are four neighbourhood plans in Bristol. But where is the money? The

:55:53.:55:59.

government has given hundreds of millions of pounds to local areas.

:56:00.:56:03.

This week, ministers around the country are announcing local growth

:56:04.:56:09.

deals. Would you allow local authorities to have more control if

:56:10.:56:16.

Labour get in? Stamp duty, more revenue raising powers? Well, Lord

:56:17.:56:24.

Adonis has just done a report about devolving powers, particularly to

:56:25.:56:27.

the city regions, economic powerhouses. As Stephen said, it is

:56:28.:56:36.

about local people, not just the people in the council. But is it

:56:37.:58:16.

as it wants to. But I want the Lib Dems to make the biggest and boldest

:58:17.:58:19.

offered to local government. We need to solve the issue of Scotland and

:58:20.:58:23.

Wales. English regions are not powerful enough and that is

:58:24.:58:28.

something we need to correct. Does he make you say localism? No, he

:58:29.:58:37.

doesn't, he makes you laugh. Now, a look at the week's events in 60

:58:38.:58:44.

seconds. The drumbeat of unhappy workers was

:58:45.:58:48.

once again to be heard on marches across the West. Schools, libraries

:58:49.:58:53.

and job centres were all affected by the strike. The dispute over pay

:58:54.:58:58.

between six public sector unions and the government rumbles on. The

:58:59.:59:02.

suspended Chief Constable of a bin and Somerset police is to be

:59:03.:59:06.

investigated over allegations he breached the data protection act.

:59:07.:59:18.

He denies any wrongdoing. This robotics lab in Bristol was a

:59:19.:59:23.

recipient of a ?200 million windfall for the West. The funding for local

:59:24.:59:26.

enterprise partnerships is also being spent on flood defences,

:59:27.:59:30.

building houses and training people to work in the nuclear industry.

:59:31.:59:37.

And it was George at the George. The Chancellor popped into a Somerset

:59:38.:59:40.

pub on Friday, raising a glass to firms who are hiring staff.

:59:41.:59:50.

That was the week. The parliamentary holidays begin very soon. Do you

:59:51.:59:53.

take too much time off, do you think? I live in Bristol so I will

:59:54.:00:01.

be spending most of August at my home in Saint Andrews in Bristol. I

:00:02.:00:05.

go to Devon over the bank holiday. That is it. And the election is

:00:06.:00:12.

coming up. It is lovely to be able to stay in one place for a few days

:00:13.:00:18.

at a time. I will make the most of being in the constituency. There is

:00:19.:00:21.

so much that goes on in Bristol jarring the summer. `` during the

:00:22.:00:31.

summer. That is it. I'm off to pack my sandals and sun cream but we will

:00:32.:00:34.

be back refreshed and well for the start of September.

:00:35.:00:35.

will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.

:00:36.:00:48.

So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including

:00:49.:00:51.

a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and

:00:52.:00:53.

Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make

:00:54.:01:14.

a difference? It will make a difference because we have

:01:15.:01:20.

established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and

:01:21.:01:26.

why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent

:01:27.:01:33.

and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed

:01:34.:01:36.

this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed

:01:37.:01:48.

through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international

:01:49.:01:54.

examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon

:01:55.:01:59.

passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of

:02:00.:02:05.

control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled

:02:06.:02:08.

down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for

:02:09.:02:17.

this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a

:02:18.:02:20.

principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,

:02:21.:02:24.

which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous

:02:25.:02:27.

relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a

:02:28.:02:32.

controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is

:02:33.:02:37.

on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church

:02:38.:02:40.

against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is

:02:41.:02:49.

stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who

:02:50.:02:54.

can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who

:02:55.:03:00.

can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is

:03:01.:03:03.

potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of

:03:04.:03:07.

Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of

:03:08.:03:11.

England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please

:03:12.:03:18.

withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court

:03:19.:03:23.

kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of

:03:24.:03:28.

three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that

:03:29.:03:34.

banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,

:03:35.:03:38.

but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to

:03:39.:03:47.

decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In

:03:48.:03:53.

record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson

:03:54.:04:01.

and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the

:04:02.:04:05.

establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great

:04:06.:04:13.

quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act

:04:14.:04:17.

and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to

:04:18.:04:24.

look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.

:04:25.:04:28.

There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about

:04:29.:04:32.

drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look

:04:33.:04:36.

something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is

:04:37.:04:42.

right or is the political establishment right? I think the

:04:43.:04:51.

establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We

:04:52.:04:57.

are in a unique position where all three political parties have

:04:58.:04:59.

relatively recent experience of government so they now that security

:05:00.:05:04.

threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation

:05:05.:05:11.

being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I

:05:12.:05:18.

do not see the political controversy. All three political

:05:19.:05:24.

parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always

:05:25.:05:31.

are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but

:05:32.:05:36.

a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political

:05:37.:05:42.

controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy

:05:43.:05:48.

about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,

:05:49.:05:55.

it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys

:05:56.:06:03.

setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have

:06:04.:06:08.

serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out

:06:09.:06:15.

in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have

:06:16.:06:21.

said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public

:06:22.:06:22.

school. For many English football fans,

:06:23.:06:26.

tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick

:06:27.:06:28.

between two traditional foes Well, if you're

:06:29.:06:31.

a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the

:06:32.:06:34.

nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced

:06:35.:06:37.

a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,

:06:38.:06:52.

it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing

:06:53.:06:57.

and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group

:06:58.:07:01.

with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.

:07:02.:07:08.

There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over

:07:09.:07:10.

authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it

:07:11.:07:13.

through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the

:07:14.:07:23.

worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The

:07:24.:07:26.

left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and

:07:27.:07:31.

authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives

:07:32.:07:36.

remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the

:07:37.:07:45.

semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking

:07:46.:07:51.

on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out

:07:52.:07:56.

Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that

:07:57.:08:02.

pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?

:08:03.:08:11.

We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser

:08:12.:08:13.

Should we read political significance in to the fact that the

:08:14.:08:27.

only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?

:08:28.:08:33.

Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a

:08:34.:08:38.

Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour

:08:39.:08:44.

government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina?

:08:45.:08:48.

Absolutely not. I do not think it has anything to do with politics. It

:08:49.:08:54.

is a bit of fun. People should choose it is Don Hoop plays the best

:08:55.:09:02.

football and the Germans have been fantastic. They were great in 2010

:09:03.:09:07.

as well. They started this model in 2008 and that is the sort of thing

:09:08.:09:12.

people should be supporting. Who should a Eurosceptic support? I

:09:13.:09:17.

would not say Argentina because that is the country that has tried to

:09:18.:09:21.

seize British sovereign territory within my lifetime. You were not

:09:22.:09:29.

around for the Blitz. Believe it or not, I was not. There is a strong

:09:30.:09:34.

political case to support Germany. They are probably going to win the

:09:35.:09:46.

World Cup with a clear of -- with players of Polish origin. That sort

:09:47.:09:50.

of cultural change they have forced themselves to go through... You talk

:09:51.:09:58.

about them being right wing, but in fact the way that the German league

:09:59.:10:03.

is structured, and I am an expert, is based on ownership. It is very

:10:04.:10:09.

different from the Premier League. It is about football as a usual

:10:10.:10:17.

good. The ticket prices are lower. The fans are involved in running the

:10:18.:10:26.

club. It is a model that all English football clubs should emulate.

:10:27.:10:29.

Germany had a strong football team under centre right governments and

:10:30.:10:34.

centre left governments and a coalition. A strong football team

:10:35.:10:45.

and a strong economy. The Conservative MP who is the arch

:10:46.:10:49.

Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of the European Union and was for a few

:10:50.:10:52.

weeks ago when people were making jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he

:10:53.:10:59.

was outraged and said you should not do that, so he could happily support

:11:00.:11:04.

Germany. What was interesting about the authoritarian and democratic

:11:05.:11:09.

regimes, what is great is that the World Cup is run by this open and

:11:10.:11:21.

democratic organisation Fifa. It is similar to the EU in many regards.

:11:22.:11:27.

Two countries led by women. Maybe gender is the thing. We did not win

:11:28.:11:36.

under Margaret Thatcher. There's one big difference with the EU, you

:11:37.:11:42.

cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go to a European summit. Did you know

:11:43.:11:49.

that Italy won two world cups under Mussolini? Can we draw any

:11:50.:11:59.

conclusions between a political system and the performance of the

:12:00.:12:05.

football team? You can draw certain parallels between maybe national

:12:06.:12:08.

cliches, so the Germans are efficient and effective, which might

:12:09.:12:16.

reflect and the English are very polite so we let everyone score

:12:17.:12:20.

first and go into the second round. We put ourselves at the back of the

:12:21.:12:24.

queue. Is England going to qualify for the European? We are going to

:12:25.:12:36.

win the European Championship. The first country Scotland have to play

:12:37.:12:39.

is Germany. What could possibly go wrong? Who is going to win? Germany.

:12:40.:12:53.

Germany. I am going to put a few bob on Argentina. Are you going to be

:12:54.:12:57.

watching? Absolutely. Thank you. This is the last Sunday Politics

:12:58.:13:04.

for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn

:13:05.:13:08.

and our first programme will be live from Scotland,

:13:09.:13:11.

the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow

:13:12.:13:17.

at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer

:13:18.:13:22.

on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:23.:13:25.

it's the Sunday Politics, unless

:13:26.:13:29.

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