23/10/2016 Sunday Politics West


23/10/2016

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by former Ukip deputy leader Paul Nuttall, international development minister Rory Stewart and shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith.


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Transcript


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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

:00:38.:00:43.

leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

:00:44.:00:45.

This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

:00:53.:00:55.

So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

:00:56.:00:58.

The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

:00:59.:01:03.

on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

:01:04.:01:06.

But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

:01:07.:01:14.

In the West: The Stroud mum behind Momentum Kids.

:01:15.:01:17.

They hit back at claims that their brand of

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political childcare is creating a generation of tiny Trots.

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one of the richest cities in the world. Should all private landlords

:01:23.:01:26.

be licensed to help tackle the squalor?

:01:27.:01:31.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -

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The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided

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The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous

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Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".

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This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,

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announced that she would be running for the leadership.

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I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,

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and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is

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because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support

:02:15.:02:17.

And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures

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on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.

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Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me

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I know head office was besieged with letters in support.

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I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing

:02:34.:02:36.

of our members, because our members are the most important

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Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years

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and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.

:02:48.:02:50.

Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.

:02:51.:02:59.

Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be

:03:00.:03:06.

the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only

:03:07.:03:11.

amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the

:03:12.:03:16.

MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip

:03:17.:03:20.

needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is

:03:21.:03:24.

looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four

:03:25.:03:36.

step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an

:03:37.:03:38.

ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at

:03:39.:03:41.

all. Students of political history know that political parties take a

:03:42.:03:47.

long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is

:03:48.:03:52.

facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us

:03:53.:03:57.

on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am

:03:58.:04:02.

the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the

:04:03.:04:06.

party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common

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challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the

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last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I

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have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time

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away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done

:04:26.:04:29.

and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be

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the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very

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experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step

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in and bring the party together You told the Liverpool Echo on the night

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of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want

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that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party

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is facing an existential crisis and I want to make sure that Ukip is on

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the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We

:05:08.:05:13.

have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to

:05:14.:05:20.

be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne

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would be an excellent candidate I thought the 2015 manifesto was the

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best out of all the political parties. I would be the best

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candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within

:05:34.:05:39.

the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I

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could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain

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Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,

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I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the

:05:56.:06:00.

next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership

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election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the

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new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the

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referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar

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schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have

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Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of

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March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a

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strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a

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huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party

:06:42.:06:45.

no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working

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people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to

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Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the

:06:55.:06:59.

north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class

:07:00.:07:03.

communities right across the country is. There are working-class

:07:04.:07:05.

communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a

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number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I

:07:21.:07:22.

believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so

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if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.

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I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that

:07:29.:07:35.

called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to

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move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive

:07:43.:07:46.

Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and

:07:47.:07:52.

concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing

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my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the

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game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the

:08:03.:08:06.

candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you

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keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European

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Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we

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would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you

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think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win

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female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone

:08:31.:08:34.

out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't

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think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I

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wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think

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the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you

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win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first

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couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to

:09:00.:09:05.

factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of

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the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify

:09:12.:09:15.

Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us

:09:16.:09:17.

this morning. We won't have to wait too long

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to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -

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the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for

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Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today

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is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or

:09:37.:09:44.

Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently

:09:45.:09:52.

Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip

:09:53.:09:59.

to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is

:10:00.:10:06.

a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst

:10:07.:10:14.

nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality

:10:15.:10:20.

difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne

:10:21.:10:23.

Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be

:10:24.:10:28.

taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the

:10:29.:10:35.

Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the

:10:36.:10:42.

Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things

:10:43.:10:53.

always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and

:10:54.:10:56.

Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.

:10:57.:11:05.

But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best

:11:06.:11:13.

secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We

:11:14.:11:17.

have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch

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there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash

:11:25.:11:28.

we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond

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May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United

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Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May

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2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to

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start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that

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leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall

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see. In June 2014, the group which calls

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itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's

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second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced

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it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,

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on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided

:12:07.:12:08.

by Iranian-backed Shia fighters Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air

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support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb

:12:18.:12:22.

from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before

:12:23.:12:40.

it destroys them. These are the first steps

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in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has

:12:45.:12:47.

made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around

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2 million people means that they established governance,

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they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,

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because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more

:13:02.:13:04.

than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric

:13:05.:13:09.

of another society. It's being billed as the biggest

:13:10.:13:13.

military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest

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moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces

:13:18.:13:21.

are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south

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the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,

:13:27.:13:31.

trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up

:13:32.:13:33.

of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,

:13:34.:13:40.

a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused

:13:41.:13:45.

of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying

:13:46.:13:48.

villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel

:13:49.:13:51.

on the ground. To the North West, a corridor

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has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,

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in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed

:14:03.:14:04.

when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle

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and it's taking place in the outlying villages

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and there have been some successes and some failures,

:14:11.:14:12.

but the momentum is building. And the real question will be

:14:13.:14:15.

when the attackers get towards the city itself,

:14:16.:14:18.

how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack

:14:19.:14:22.

within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,

:14:23.:14:29.

on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,

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including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds

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of thousands of families have been rounded up

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as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,

:14:39.:14:41.

but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,

:14:42.:14:45.

the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,

:14:46.:14:48.

they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not

:14:49.:14:51.

for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want

:14:52.:14:55.

to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni

:14:56.:14:58.

majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have

:14:59.:15:03.

helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis

:15:04.:15:07.

Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something

:15:08.:15:09.

from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames

:15:10.:15:13.

and was then carved up, it is because that is what is

:15:14.:15:16.

happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut

:15:17.:15:19.

across by other identities such And that means that putting together

:15:20.:15:24.

a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be

:15:25.:15:34.

a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq

:15:35.:15:40.

at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul

:15:41.:15:43.

is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant

:15:44.:15:46.

which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that

:15:47.:15:50.

come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing

:15:51.:15:53.

but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International

:15:54.:15:55.

Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was

:15:56.:16:05.

the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following

:16:06.:16:08.

the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at some

:16:09.:16:23.

stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first

:16:24.:16:33.

thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being

:16:34.:16:36.

the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident

:16:37.:16:39.

predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi

:16:40.:16:48.

forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I

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would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one

:16:55.:17:03.

STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.

:17:04.:17:06.

June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and

:17:07.:17:14.

they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million

:17:15.:17:18.

people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they

:17:19.:17:23.

have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of

:17:24.:17:26.

Mosul, and that is a fundamental blow. Islamic State is all about

:17:27.:17:31.

territory and holding state, that is what makes it different from

:17:32.:17:34.

Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that will be a cynic -- significant blow

:17:35.:17:42.

to their credibility. Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday's

:17:43.:17:46.

presidential debate that when Iraqi forces with their allies including

:17:47.:17:49.

the United Kingdom gain control of Mosul they should continue to press

:17:50.:17:55.

into Syria to take back Raqqa which is the de facto capital of the

:17:56.:18:01.

caliphate, what is left of it, do we want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into

:18:02.:18:08.

Syria? Very important question. Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from

:18:09.:18:12.

people on the Syrian side of the border and that is an important

:18:13.:18:18.

principle -- the lead. In the end of that enemy, Islamic State, is a

:18:19.:18:23.

common enemy for odd members of the coalition including the Iraqi

:18:24.:18:29.

government. -- all members. There is likely to be a humanitarian crisis

:18:30.:18:33.

especially if it ends up with street to street fighting and IS are

:18:34.:18:36.

difficult to dislodge what are we doing about that? We are doing very

:18:37.:18:43.

detailed scenario planning. It is very uncertain what the scenario

:18:44.:18:47.

will be but much investment has gone into creating a network of camps,

:18:48.:18:55.

refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps around cash refugee camps, and that

:18:56.:19:04.

is where money, British money, 40 million has gone recently into

:19:05.:19:07.

supporting that, especially in terms of medical support to people. The

:19:08.:19:14.

United nation's emergency response budget is ?196 million but only one

:19:15.:19:17.

third funded which sounds like we are putting up a big chunk of what

:19:18.:19:21.

is already being funded. Why is that? The international committee

:19:22.:19:26.

can't say they haven't seen this assault coming, and the humanitarian

:19:27.:19:31.

fallout they may see from it. You are absolutely right. We have seen

:19:32.:19:36.

it coming and we have been planning since debris and we have put in

:19:37.:19:39.

about ?167 million into this -- planning since February. There has

:19:40.:19:45.

been a change in the nature of the appeal, and if there is a lag in the

:19:46.:19:48.

accounting of it, but the money we need at this stage is in place and

:19:49.:19:52.

we do have the support structure in place for those refugees. You are

:19:53.:19:56.

right the United Nations is continuing with its appeal and is

:19:57.:20:00.

asking for more money at the moment. The converse magazine wrote this

:20:01.:20:03.

week that preparations for a big exodus of people leaving the city

:20:04.:20:08.

have been made -- Economist magazine. But confidence is not high

:20:09.:20:13.

in the preparations, is that a unfair conclusion? If you can

:20:14.:20:19.

imagine the different scenarios it could be a few thousand and it could

:20:20.:20:22.

be a few hundred thousand coming out of the city through a front line

:20:23.:20:25.

where the war is going on, that is very difficult. You have to screen

:20:26.:20:30.

those people and disarm them, and keep families together, and

:20:31.:20:34.

transport them and you have to bring them into the refugee camps. The

:20:35.:20:38.

people working on this have been working on this for long time, we

:20:39.:20:41.

have mapped the different routes we have good camp infrastructure in

:20:42.:20:47.

place and we have people who have worked in south to dam and other

:20:48.:20:51.

areas who are putting their structures in place -- South Sudan.

:20:52.:20:56.

It is never easy but I think we have done everything we can in the

:20:57.:20:59.

preparation for this. What is the British role in what will probably

:21:00.:21:06.

be an even bigger issue, assuming that Mosul is liberated and retaken,

:21:07.:21:11.

the humanitarian crisis is dealt with, what role will we play in the

:21:12.:21:17.

rebuilding of Mosul? That will be crucial to the future of Iraq, the

:21:18.:21:21.

second-biggest city and it will need to be rebuilt. It will need to be

:21:22.:21:27.

rebuilt as a community as well as bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni

:21:28.:21:32.

community that is not harassed by the Shia. -- and eight. You are

:21:33.:21:40.

right. One of the core drivers is that the Sunni community felt

:21:41.:21:42.

excluded and they did not feel they have the trust from the Baghdad

:21:43.:21:46.

government. A lasting solution is stopping some of Islamic State

:21:47.:21:54.

coming back, that involves making sure the Sunni community have a

:21:55.:21:58.

stake in their future. That is making sure that the governing

:21:59.:22:03.

structures are in place. The UK s response is twofold, we have got to

:22:04.:22:07.

get the humanitarian aid right, that is the short term, people who might

:22:08.:22:11.

be malnourished, coming out of the front line. The second thing is

:22:12.:22:16.

working with the Iraqi government to make sure that as we rebuild Mosul

:22:17.:22:21.

we do so in a way that that population feels a connection to the

:22:22.:22:26.

Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing territory everywhere in the Levant,

:22:27.:22:31.

it is almost finished in Iraq, we think. It is down to one district in

:22:32.:22:36.

Libya, as well, just one small part of the town. I suppose the risk is,

:22:37.:22:43.

if life is becoming more difficult across these areas, it can start to

:22:44.:22:48.

look more in Europe and the United Kingdom as a place to continue its

:22:49.:22:52.

terrorist attacks? That is a real danger. You are right. This is a

:22:53.:22:58.

group which has proved over the last five years very unpredictable and it

:22:59.:23:02.

changes for it quickly full stop often it does unexpected things In

:23:03.:23:07.

2009 its predecessor had been largely wiped out in Iraq and when

:23:08.:23:13.

it was under pressure in Syria it went back into Iraq, and in the past

:23:14.:23:16.

it didn't hold territory but now it holds territory, so you are right.

:23:17.:23:21.

There is a serious risk that as it gets squeezed in the middle East it

:23:22.:23:25.

will try to pop up somewhere else and Mac could include Europe and the

:23:26.:23:29.

United States -- that could. They say that is something they have

:23:30.:23:33.

focused on full stop we also have a big focus on counterterrorism

:23:34.:23:38.

security and making sure that we keep the United Kingdom and Europe

:23:39.:23:46.

say. One final question. -- say -- safe. Maybe events in Mosul could

:23:47.:23:52.

add to the migration crisis in Europe, is that a possibility?

:23:53.:23:57.

Again, you are right, we have seen in Syria it can push migration, the

:23:58.:24:03.

biggest push the migration was the conflict in Syria, and that's the

:24:04.:24:06.

reason why we have but so much energy into getting those refugee

:24:07.:24:10.

camps in place and getting the humanitarian response in place -

:24:11.:24:15.

put so much energy. People will want to remain in their homes, this is

:24:16.:24:18.

their country, but we have got to make it possible for them and that

:24:19.:24:21.

means in the short term looking after their shelter and in the

:24:22.:24:26.

medium to long-term making sure they have livelihoods, jobs and an

:24:27.:24:30.

economic development which is why our support in Iraq is in the UK

:24:31.:24:34.

National interests because it deals with these issues of migration and

:24:35.:24:40.

terrorists. Thanks for joining us. I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence

:24:41.:24:44.

Secretary. Does Labour support British

:24:45.:25:01.

participation in this offensive We fully support the participation in

:25:02.:25:05.

this offensive, extremely important move forward and we voted for this

:25:06.:25:10.

back in 2014. We are asking the government question is, of course, I

:25:11.:25:14.

was asking the Secretary of State this week about this very offensive

:25:15.:25:20.

but we are fully behind our RAF pilots out there and be trading that

:25:21.:25:23.

has been going on to help the forces on the ground. -- the training full

:25:24.:25:29.

stop that is very clear. I wonder if you'll lead it shares that clarity

:25:30.:25:35.

and that position. -- is your leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn

:25:36.:25:38.

has said. What's been done in Iraq

:25:39.:25:40.

is done by the Iraqi government, and currently

:25:41.:25:42.

supported by the British government. I did not support it

:25:43.:25:44.

when it came up. Well, I'm not sure how successful

:25:45.:25:46.

it's been, because most of the action now appears to be

:25:47.:25:50.

moving in to Syria, so I think we He doesn't sound very supportive.

:25:51.:26:01.

The issue about Mosul, it has been very carefully prepared as Rory

:26:02.:26:04.

Stewart said and I hope we have learned the lessons from previous

:26:05.:26:10.

offensives where we haven't learnt sufficiently, and that is going to

:26:11.:26:14.

be crucial in this context. How the aftermath is going to be dealt with.

:26:15.:26:19.

Of course will stop that clip was from November last year, and things

:26:20.:26:24.

have changed. Two weeks ago he told the BBC" I'm not sure it is

:26:25.:26:30.

working", in reference to air strikes in Iraq, but it is working.

:26:31.:26:34.

We have got to see what happens in Mosul, it is a very high-risk

:26:35.:26:38.

operation, but we also have to face the fact that the people there are

:26:39.:26:42.

living under tyranny at the moment. We have to ask very cirrus question

:26:43.:26:49.

shall stop he says he's not sure it is working, when Mosul is the last

:26:50.:26:52.

major target be cleared of Islamic State in Iraq. The combination of

:26:53.:26:57.

Allied air power has worked, why is he not sure it is working? Because

:26:58.:27:01.

we have seen difficulties in the past. But this was two weeks ago. It

:27:02.:27:08.

is essential that the work is done, both planning for the refugees as

:27:09.:27:11.

Rory Stewart referred to, but also in terms of reconstruction of the

:27:12.:27:14.

city and its community as you mentioned. These are vital. This was

:27:15.:27:20.

about the ability to make progress with Allied air power, special

:27:21.:27:25.

forces in Iraq, on the ground, do you accept so far that has a

:27:26.:27:30.

strategy that seems to be working to read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq

:27:31.:27:42.

of Islamic State the question of the car began placement. Ulloa -- we

:27:43.:27:55.

can't be complacent. The problems they are creating where ever they

:27:56.:27:57.

are urged that we must continue to pursue them. This is the first time

:27:58.:28:03.

we have spoken to since you have become the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:28:04.:28:06.

I hope we will have a longer interview. Will Labour's next

:28:07.:28:12.

manifesto include a commitment to the renewal of Trident? It will We

:28:13.:28:17.

made that commitment in 2007, that is a firm commitment and we will

:28:18.:28:21.

honour that to our coalition allies and our industrial partners and that

:28:22.:28:24.

is the vote which was taken democratically and repeatedly has

:28:25.:28:28.

been reaffirmed by Labour conference and we are a democratic party vote

:28:29.:28:34.

up you have squared that with Jeremy Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy

:28:35.:28:40.

and he understands the situation, but we also want to push for the UK

:28:41.:28:44.

to play a much bigger role on the international stage on multilateral

:28:45.:28:49.

disarmament talks. You were very clear there, I thank you for that.

:28:50.:28:53.

Support for Trident will be in the next Labour manifesto. What has

:28:54.:28:57.

happened to Labour's review of Trident policy? That review has been

:28:58.:29:03.

taking place over the year, we had a very clear reaffirmation in the

:29:04.:29:08.

conference boat this year, we are reaffirming our commitment to

:29:09.:29:11.

Trident -- vote. The review can t change that? There is a process of

:29:12.:29:18.

review and a fair number of issues related to defence, all parties do

:29:19.:29:24.

this. Of course. The review can t change the commitment to Trident? We

:29:25.:29:28.

are not changing the commitment to Trident. Russia is now the main

:29:29.:29:34.

strategic threat to this country? It is a major strategic threat and we

:29:35.:29:36.

have got to work with our Nato allies very closely and make sure

:29:37.:29:40.

that we respond and that we do not let things pass. For example, we

:29:41.:29:44.

should be calling out Russia for the way it has been a bombing

:29:45.:29:50.

humanitarian aid and we should be taking them to international court

:29:51.:29:52.

over this, but we should also be strengthening sanctions, somewhat

:29:53.:30:00.

imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let

:30:01.:30:05.

us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European

:30:06.:30:06.

initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain

:30:07.:30:13.

should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.

:30:14.:30:16.

Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle

:30:17.:30:21.

being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria

:30:22.:30:24.

has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's

:30:25.:30:28.

five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,

:30:29.:30:31.

in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English

:30:32.:30:34.

channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest

:30:35.:30:38.

surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought

:30:39.:30:41.

to be preparation for a final assault

:30:42.:30:44.

on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting

:30:45.:30:48.

resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -

:30:49.:30:52.

with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's

:30:53.:30:57.

rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been

:30:58.:31:00.

killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,

:31:01.:31:03.

backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned

:31:04.:31:07.

Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow

:31:08.:31:14.

of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support

:31:15.:31:17.

of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided

:31:18.:31:20.

on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied

:31:21.:31:24.

with domestic politics, President Putin senses this

:31:25.:31:27.

is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former

:31:28.:31:31.

Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master

:31:32.:31:39.

of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC

:31:40.:31:52.

studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to

:31:53.:31:59.

get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the

:32:00.:32:04.

commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New

:32:05.:32:09.

York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.

:32:10.:32:14.

Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in

:32:15.:32:19.

control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles

:32:20.:32:26.

wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it

:32:27.:32:30.

inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what

:32:31.:32:39.

President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce

:32:40.:32:45.

bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the

:32:46.:32:49.

Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when

:32:50.:32:54.

the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they

:32:55.:33:00.

went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking

:33:01.:33:05.

about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of

:33:06.:33:11.

the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The

:33:12.:33:15.

purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and

:33:16.:33:19.

then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more

:33:20.:33:24.

complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there

:33:25.:33:29.

was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so

:33:30.:33:33.

many different parties involved We have seen the alarm in the west of

:33:34.:33:37.

the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been

:33:38.:33:47.

rumblings in the west of, shouldn't the United States do something?

:33:48.:33:50.

Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier

:33:51.:33:53.

steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,

:33:54.:33:59.

both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved

:34:00.:34:05.

in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the

:34:06.:34:11.

ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the

:34:12.:34:15.

aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the

:34:16.:34:22.

rebel controlled area does fall it would be seen as a great victory for

:34:23.:34:26.

President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia

:34:27.:34:31.

here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan

:34:32.:34:36.

that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia

:34:37.:34:43.

went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.

:34:44.:34:46.

President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or

:34:47.:34:51.

its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the

:34:52.:34:56.

argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the

:34:57.:35:02.

only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue

:35:03.:35:10.

argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.

:35:11.:35:18.

They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence

:35:19.:35:22.

at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to

:35:23.:35:30.

push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided

:35:31.:35:36.

Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.

:35:37.:35:41.

The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted

:35:42.:35:46.

by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there

:35:47.:35:51.

is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that

:35:52.:36:01.

part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to

:36:02.:36:06.

admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric

:36:07.:36:12.

from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are

:36:13.:36:17.

an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in

:36:18.:36:21.

the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging

:36:22.:36:27.

with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the

:36:28.:36:32.

place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in

:36:33.:36:38.

the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a

:36:39.:36:43.

country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is

:36:44.:36:47.

now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important

:36:48.:36:53.

message. Looking at the economy It is in recession. GDP has been

:36:54.:36:58.

falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:59.:37:03.

hydrocarbons, and is expected to fall again. Its people are falling

:37:04.:37:08.

again. People don't realise how small the Russian economy is. Its

:37:09.:37:14.

GDP is about the size of Italy's. It is smaller than the UK economy.

:37:15.:37:19.

Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years ago. But so is Britain's does it

:37:20.:37:29.

help to take people's mind of this? A huge shock to the Russian economy

:37:30.:37:35.

was a drop in the price of oil and a price of gas. A drop in the price of

:37:36.:37:40.

the ruble as well. This is hurting the people of Russia. On the one

:37:41.:37:45.

hand, it is the war in Syria, which is very important for Russia to sort

:37:46.:37:50.

out that part of the world and dispensed terrorists who might be

:37:51.:37:58.

danger to -- is dangerous to Russia. But he had also has presidential

:37:59.:38:03.

election is going up. They are supposed to be 2018, but some feel

:38:04.:38:07.

he will bring them forward to 2 17, because the economy is not doing so

:38:08.:38:12.

well. But you need a good story for the Russian people. Thank you very

:38:13.:38:14.

much. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:15.:38:16.

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to

:38:17.:38:27.

Sunday Politics here in the West. Coming up: When politics

:38:28.:38:29.

is child's play. We hear from one of the founders

:38:30.:38:33.

of Momentum Kids which organises activities for children

:38:34.:38:36.

with a political flavour. They'll respond to claims that

:38:37.:38:40.

they're making a generation of mini I'm joined by two grown-ups

:38:41.:38:43.

with youngsters of their own. It's a Coalition pairing just

:38:44.:38:49.

like the old times. Conservation group leader

:38:50.:38:52.

on Bristol City Council Mark Weston and for the Lib Dems,

:38:53.:38:57.

their general election candhdate for Kingswood when the election

:38:58.:38:59.

comes, Carole Wilkinson. Let's start with the

:39:00.:39:11.

by-election in Whitney. Are you shocked or surprised

:39:12.:39:15.

by the Lib Dem's surge? I have to confess to being puite

:39:16.:39:19.

happy with the result. When David Cameron first won

:39:20.:39:23.

the seat he won with 45% of the vote We've been in government for six

:39:24.:39:26.

years and we won it So, from a Conservative point

:39:27.:39:31.

of view I'm quite happy. But the Lib Dems had a pretty good

:39:32.:39:36.

result and bucked the trend Our vote's been going up

:39:37.:39:39.

across the country. Partly they ran an excellent

:39:40.:39:46.

campaign and got stuck into that. The other thing I think is people

:39:47.:39:59.

are really very worried about what is going on with Brexit,

:40:00.:40:02.

about noises they're hearing It will be interesting

:40:03.:40:05.

to see what happens Do you think it's a sign th`t people

:40:06.:40:09.

don't want a hard Brexit? I don't think you can read too much

:40:10.:40:15.

into a single by-election. There needs to be a much wider

:40:16.:40:18.

sampling of the vote. I think one of the problems we have

:40:19.:40:21.

with Brexit is we need more information but it's a complicated

:40:22.:40:27.

negotiations so the information But I'm happy with the result

:40:28.:40:29.

and glad I'm not in Ukip's shoes. OK, even though you lost

:40:30.:40:35.

a lot of support. How's this for a solution

:40:36.:40:38.

to the financial woes faced by some A big one-off leap in counchl tax

:40:39.:40:41.

without restrictions. That is what Swindon is doing

:40:42.:40:47.

with a catch, you have to create a whole new layer

:40:48.:40:49.

of local government. They've cut and cut and cut,

:40:50.:40:57.

but now Swindon Borough Council wants to hand over jobs likd grass

:40:58.:41:00.

cutting to parish councils. There aren't any in most of the town

:41:01.:41:04.

so three would be created. They could then add a chargd

:41:05.:41:07.

to council tax bills, perhaps ? 5. We're facing unprecedented budget

:41:08.:41:20.

pressures and we are facing unprecedented pressure

:41:21.:41:22.

on our services for vulnerable That squeezes in important local

:41:23.:41:24.

services, like street cleanhng and grass cutting and looking

:41:25.:41:33.

after children's playgrounds. This allows us to ring fencd that

:41:34.:41:35.

money and provide the It was backed by the ruling

:41:36.:41:37.

Conservative cabinet and there was much talk

:41:38.:41:43.

of the rising cost of social services and falling

:41:44.:41:45.

funding from Whitehall. But that may not mean much

:41:46.:41:49.

to the 130,000 residents We pay a lot of money

:41:50.:41:52.

out and they don't do It seems to be an excuse

:41:53.:42:01.

to put everything up It's bad isn't it because wd pay

:42:02.:42:04.

enough now for different thhngs It is also being

:42:05.:42:12.

considered in Bristol. At present, it has no town or parish

:42:13.:42:17.

councils in contrast As people in Bristol want to know

:42:18.:42:20.

what it's like to have an extra local council all they need to do

:42:21.:42:28.

is cross the city boundary. Although it is part of urban

:42:29.:42:31.

South Gloucestershire, It's interesting to

:42:32.:42:33.

compare it to Kingswood. Kingswood is a suburb that's also

:42:34.:42:39.

part of South Gloucestershire but it Filton has a leisure centre

:42:40.:42:42.

and so does Kingswood. They have similar facilities and,

:42:43.:42:52.

yes, both have playgrounds though the town council boasts

:42:53.:42:55.

that they have rather You're saying people in Filton

:42:56.:42:58.

get better facilities No, I think just maybe

:42:59.:43:02.

we get a bum deal. Yes, because these things are extra

:43:03.:43:15.

and this is why our services are a bit higher than counchls

:43:16.:43:18.

nearby because they don't h`ve Filton's ?190 council tax charge

:43:19.:43:23.

also funds offices and staff. Councillors themselves aren't paid,

:43:24.:43:30.

but holding elections aren't cheap The problem is getting

:43:31.:43:34.

people to do it. We struggle here quite often to be

:43:35.:43:41.

quorate at meetings because it's Back in Swindon like in Swindon

:43:42.:43:44.

dozens of new councillors whll be needed if the plan gets a fhnal

:43:45.:43:55.

go-ahead next month. Joining me is David Reynard,

:43:56.:44:00.

the leader of Swindon The plan is to complete this

:44:01.:44:02.

patchwork of parish councils and, therefore, you will be able to say

:44:03.:44:10.

to the parish councils, Half of Swindon is parished

:44:11.:44:14.

half isn't in Swindon, mainly for historical reasons,

:44:15.:44:21.

but we want to extend the bdnefits It would give local

:44:22.:44:24.

residents more choice over And less choice over

:44:25.:44:33.

how much cash they pay? You quoted ?75, but I represent

:44:34.:44:38.

and live in a parished area and pay ?35 a year and I get really good

:44:39.:44:44.

services for that money. What many people may suspect is that

:44:45.:44:48.

council spending is tight so you devolve it to parish level

:44:49.:44:52.

and there is no cap That is true but the governlent

:44:53.:44:56.

is consulting on that. And we're already doing that

:44:57.:45:02.

with existing parishes. So it's a way of getting more money

:45:03.:45:17.

out of the tax taxpayer? No, it's about protecting

:45:18.:45:20.

services people value. If they stay with the borough

:45:21.:45:26.

council, more of our money hs going on adult and children social care,

:45:27.:45:29.

therefore there will be less to pay Actually, it's about raising

:45:30.:45:32.

extra revenue as well? You are on Bristol City Council

:45:33.:45:36.

would you support parishes springing No, I must confess

:45:37.:45:44.

to not being a fan. As David said, half of their

:45:45.:45:53.

residents are already in parishes. In Bristol, it's a new structure

:45:54.:45:58.

for everybody and I must confess to being nervous about sudddnly

:45:59.:46:02.

having additional As far as I see it, I would end up

:46:03.:46:05.

paying for another level of I'm slightly concerned that some

:46:06.:46:12.

of the wealthier areas of the city would be able to have a fairly low

:46:13.:46:18.

charge to do what they want and the poorer areas

:46:19.:46:23.

can least afford it. It would be up to each individual

:46:24.:46:29.

parish council to decide wh`t level of services they want to provide

:46:30.:46:32.

and we have that in Swindon. Are you putting up the council tax

:46:33.:46:37.

by the maximum you can each year? We are, as I think you'll fhnd

:46:38.:46:46.

all top tier councils are doing You're a former parish

:46:47.:46:50.

councillor, aren't you? This has come about because of

:46:51.:46:52.

severe cuts in government ftnding In South Gloucestershire,

:46:53.:46:55.

they had to take ?38 million a year out of the budget announced

:46:56.:47:01.

an additional 40 million. Bristol council had to get rid

:47:02.:47:07.

of 1,000 jobs in a month As a parish councillor,

:47:08.:47:09.

do you support it? Parish councils are extremely

:47:10.:47:17.

valuable where the people involved are engaged and represent

:47:18.:47:20.

a whole load of different people in the community

:47:21.:47:27.

add a constructive. Some parish councils

:47:28.:47:29.

don't function very well. It's all about the people you can

:47:30.:47:33.

get on board and moving forward OK, other cities miss out bx not

:47:34.:47:38.

having local representation that There is a difference betwedn places

:47:39.:47:42.

which are in cities and havd a good At the moment, parish counchls

:47:43.:47:50.

are being asked to do things like fund all the things

:47:51.:47:56.

which the council used to ftnd before and if they don't find

:47:57.:48:00.

it, who does? It doesn't have to just

:48:01.:48:11.

be parish councillors! Let us talk about the bigger issue

:48:12.:48:22.

of council tax rises. Bristol has announced

:48:23.:48:24.

cuts to services to come and still the council tax

:48:25.:48:26.

going up by 4% a year over That's a tremendous amount

:48:27.:48:29.

of money, isn't it? We have a particular demogr`phic

:48:30.:48:33.

with more older people. So, you support the mayor's plan

:48:34.:48:35.

to put up the council tax? We're still in consultation

:48:36.:48:41.

so I can't commit, but I can understand the reasons why

:48:42.:48:44.

you'd have to do it. And 4% a year is going to bd

:48:45.:48:47.

a couple of hundred quid, isn't it? Theresa May talks about hard-working

:48:48.:48:54.

families not losing out but that's a weekend away or a holiday perhaps

:48:55.:49:02.

in five years' time? As Conservatives, we're keen to keep

:49:03.:49:07.

tax as low as possible, but Mark is right, the incrdase

:49:08.:49:10.

in the number of elderly who need care and support,

:49:11.:49:13.

the number of young people By 2020, we anticipate that 80%

:49:14.:49:16.

of our budget will be spent on supporting vulnerable people

:49:17.:49:23.

and that is the challenge. Few political ideas have catsed

:49:24.:49:28.

delight and derision in such equal At its heart it's about combining

:49:29.:49:35.

childcare with politics, but some believe more sinister

:49:36.:49:41.

motives are at play. Robin Markwell takes up a t`le that

:49:42.:49:45.

began in Gloucestershire. Once upon a time in the land not

:49:46.:49:49.

so far-away, there lived a lan One day the people who really

:49:50.:50:01.

liked him and wanted him to be Prime Minister

:50:02.:50:06.

held a big conference. But they found talking

:50:07.:50:11.

about politics whilst looking after their children hard

:50:12.:50:14.

so they formed a childcare group It's immediately clear wherd

:50:15.:50:17.

the founder of momentum kids lives, from the sign on the window

:50:18.:50:27.

to the banner in the front room This is apolitical household

:50:28.:50:33.

and this Stroud mum wants From asking them what poliches their

:50:34.:50:39.

teddy bear should be championing... The teddy bear has a whole list

:50:40.:50:48.

of ideas about how the teddx bear ..to word searches with

:50:49.:50:53.

a radical bent. We've got words here

:50:54.:50:58.

like equality, state, love. You don't often see that

:50:59.:51:02.

in a child's word search! But Momentum Kids, to put it mildly,

:51:03.:51:07.

has not been without its crhtics. From being lampooned on sochal media

:51:08.:51:12.

- in this case D is for desdlection They've even seized the nurseries,

:51:13.:51:16.

too, opening branches of Molentum Or my particular

:51:17.:51:24.

favourite, Tiny Trots. I don't think people are re`lly

:51:25.:51:37.

getting why we're doing this. It was about inclusion

:51:38.:51:43.

and about making our lives lore interesting and better

:51:44.:51:47.

and bringing our families There is an element

:51:48.:51:49.

of indoctrination of childrdn They are shown adverts,

:51:50.:51:55.

pink for girls in blue for boys They are constantly

:51:56.:52:02.

being marketed to. We're trying to create an atmosphere

:52:03.:52:05.

for children to be curious I'm not particularly interested

:52:06.:52:08.

in my children being mini Corbynistas because,

:52:09.:52:14.

quite frankly, in 20 years when they're out doing thei

:52:15.:52:17.

grass roots activism, The aim is to roll this out

:52:18.:52:21.

nationwide and that evening we were given a sneak previdw of how

:52:22.:52:28.

it might work. At a gym in Swindon

:52:29.:52:30.

they held a trial session, Tell me when the bad guy

:52:31.:52:33.

is about to grab you. The lesson here was

:52:34.:52:39.

about empowerment. And while inside they learn

:52:40.:52:46.

to deal with an attack... It meant the mums could go outside

:52:47.:52:50.

and talk politics with a sm`ll P. Children are a lot more savvy today

:52:51.:52:55.

with what's going on. Certainly more so than

:52:56.:52:59.

I was at that age. It's fun, challenging and vdry

:53:00.:53:02.

improving on our skills. And you get too big to mum

:53:03.:53:12.

up as well? It's trying to get kids

:53:13.:53:20.

to be more listened I'm interested in politics

:53:21.:53:26.

and I think that maybe bringing politics to children

:53:27.:53:30.

might be a bit useful. So, is this a bid to create

:53:31.:53:33.

the Corbyn street fighters of tomorrow or a movement

:53:34.:53:43.

to be applauded? Getting more youngsters

:53:44.:53:46.

to grapple with politics. Joining us now is Natasha

:53:47.:53:52.

who you saw in that film. Welcome and we saw your delhghtful

:53:53.:53:56.

children. Do they go on strike

:53:57.:53:58.

for more pocket money? It's all about bribery

:53:59.:54:01.

with kids, isn't it? Is it indoctrination or is ht common

:54:02.:54:10.

sense and fun? It's like I said in the clip just

:54:11.:54:16.

then, children are indoctrinated. We're talking about questioning

:54:17.:54:22.

curious children and whilst we ,as activists, are going out

:54:23.:54:29.

and having meetings, whether it's Labour Party

:54:30.:54:32.

meetings at seven o'clock when I want to put the kids to bed,

:54:33.:54:38.

or Momentum activism, there is a platform that's

:54:39.:54:41.

completely inclusive. Momentum is regarded

:54:42.:54:44.

as being on the left of Labour and if there were a group

:54:45.:54:48.

on the right of the Conserv`tives for young kids telling them

:54:49.:54:51.

about immigration and self-reliance and that sort of stuff,

:54:52.:54:55.

what would you say about th`t? I think to a certain extent people

:54:56.:55:00.

are missing the point with what we're trying to do

:55:01.:55:04.

because yes there are children's activities but actually

:55:05.:55:08.

the most important thing If we're talking about a group

:55:09.:55:10.

like Momentum who are opening out to so many people,

:55:11.:55:15.

20,000 members, we're talking about inclusion,

:55:16.:55:19.

equality and diversity and hn order to do that you have two provide

:55:20.:55:24.

support for everybody. As a mum what I wanted to do

:55:25.:55:35.

was start something that made it easy for people

:55:36.:55:38.

like me, actually. OK, let us bring

:55:39.:55:41.

in our other guests. You're from the group called

:55:42.:55:43.

the Parents' Union, is Do you think it's right for mums

:55:44.:55:46.

and dads to have time out and for the kids to get somd sort

:55:47.:55:52.

of political awareness? For parents, like you say,

:55:53.:55:56.

it's getting women into polhtics... I have three kids and it's

:55:57.:56:01.

been really difficult. Luckily mine are getting older

:56:02.:56:05.

but I would have thought I think there's no harm whatsoever

:56:06.:56:07.

in children being told it's fine to question the status quo

:56:08.:56:14.

and asking questions and becoming aware of issues because children

:56:15.:56:17.

are affected by politics evdry day. Do their parents have

:56:18.:56:20.

to pay for the school bus? What did they teach

:56:21.:56:24.

you at Lib Dem school? Probably from my own perspective,

:56:25.:56:33.

because I don't come from a political family,

:56:34.:56:48.

when I was a kid we went to Sunday school creche

:56:49.:56:50.

and then Sunday school. I've grown up and made

:56:51.:56:52.

my own decisions. Have you stuck with those

:56:53.:56:54.

Sunday school views? I coloured in pictures of prophets

:56:55.:56:57.

and Jesus but I certainly don't We want people to be

:56:58.:57:02.

involved in politics. I think probably the word sdarch

:57:03.:57:10.

with "Unionise" has allowed what they're trying

:57:11.:57:13.

to do to come into it. If "Capitalism" is the next word I'm

:57:14.:57:18.

sure it will be fine! Children are susceptible

:57:19.:57:21.

to a lot of things and that impression and influence coles

:57:22.:57:35.

from all manner of directions. In politics we're trying

:57:36.:57:39.

keep that balance. If nothing else, they will rebel

:57:40.:57:43.

against us horribly in later life. You might find yourself

:57:44.:57:47.

with rebellious children. We would welcome them

:57:48.:57:51.

to the fold, of course! Childhood is probably one

:57:52.:57:53.

of the least democratic timds Your parents always

:57:54.:57:58.

tell you what to do. How do you get from that to sending

:57:59.:58:03.

them out into the world as electorates, they will bd voting,

:58:04.:58:06.

to question and think about what they want

:58:07.:58:09.

in a political party? And what they can do

:58:10.:58:15.

to change the world. You don't have to worry

:58:16.:58:17.

about those things. You've got years to be concdrned

:58:18.:58:21.

with grown-up issues. You need space just to play

:58:22.:58:23.

and have fun. Actually, if you have been

:58:24.:58:27.

to our Facebook page and sedn some of the placards the children did,

:58:28.:58:31.

own their own, "Proper jobs There are already thinking

:58:32.:58:34.

about this stuff. And you take them to

:58:35.:58:42.

demonstrations as well? We would like our members

:58:43.:58:44.

to have a presence there so there is a safe place for families to come

:58:45.:58:53.

and share their feelings. We have no minimum age

:58:54.:58:59.

of membership. I see no problem with that `nd it

:59:00.:59:03.

if it helps carers... Are children naturally soci`list,

:59:04.:59:18.

do you think? I don't know if it's

:59:19.:59:20.

socialism or capitalism. I don't think it's defined

:59:21.:59:28.

as an ideology which is why if we talking about education it has

:59:29.:59:39.

to be a balanced approach I'm fully fearful that mine

:59:40.:59:42.

will rebel hard and join With news of defections and Brexit

:59:43.:59:45.

themed Christmas card here's a round-up in 60 seconds and this

:59:46.:59:56.

week it is by Robin. The Swindon Labour councillor

:59:57.:00:01.

performed a double He decided to join the Torids

:00:02.:00:03.

as he was unhappy with Jerely Corbyn and then he rejoined Labour claiming

:00:04.:00:09.

he'd made a mistake. Nick Clegg said his

:00:10.:00:12.

door was always open. He can always try the Lib Ddms

:00:13.:00:17.

and make it a hat-trick. The NHS trusts in Gloucestershire

:00:18.:00:25.

and Cheltenham was placed After months of doubt,

:00:26.:00:27.

Somerset is a 303 will be We are right to invest in pdak

:00:28.:00:33.

infrastructure like the A303. And if it ever to early to talk

:00:34.:00:46.

Christmas? We are very humorous people and it's

:00:47.:00:49.

not all doom and gloom. Campaign group Bristol for Durope

:00:50.:00:55.

has launched a range of Brexit themed Christmas cards designed

:00:56.:00:58.

to wish weaving remainders `re very And, on that festive note

:00:59.:01:07.

we must leave it for today. My thanks to all my guests

:01:08.:01:11.

were coming along to our sttdio We will be back next week,

:01:12.:01:14.

but for now letters go back go ahead with this policy, I know.

:01:15.:01:17.

And now back to Andrew. So, Brexit, airports,

:01:18.:01:29.

Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying

:01:30.:01:51.

there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq

:01:52.:01:54.

now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control

:01:55.:02:01.

a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small

:02:02.:02:10.

area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more

:02:11.:02:13.

dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the

:02:14.:02:18.

Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very

:02:19.:02:23.

interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,

:02:24.:02:28.

and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is

:02:29.:02:35.

about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You

:02:36.:02:38.

smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to

:02:39.:02:48.

warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in

:02:49.:02:59.

Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean

:03:00.:03:04.

into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,

:03:05.:03:08.

we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right

:03:09.:03:16.

for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions

:03:17.:03:21.

here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as

:03:22.:03:26.

we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages

:03:27.:03:30.

here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at

:03:31.:03:37.

least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical

:03:38.:03:45.

Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the

:03:46.:03:51.

Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so

:03:52.:03:58.

that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even

:03:59.:04:02.

if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that

:04:03.:04:07.

interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory

:04:08.:04:12.

said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some

:04:13.:04:17.

of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of

:04:18.:04:22.

the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour

:04:23.:04:26.

office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm

:04:27.:04:32.

not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get

:04:33.:04:35.

out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She

:04:36.:04:40.

sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should

:04:41.:04:46.

answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we

:04:47.:04:52.

saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be

:04:53.:04:56.

the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the

:04:57.:05:00.

Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give

:05:01.:05:03.

testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.

:05:04.:05:06.

I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that

:05:07.:05:10.

if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5

:05:11.:05:13.

to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading

:05:14.:05:15.

relationship, market access, including for services,

:05:16.:05:17.

80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,

:05:18.:05:19.

that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek

:05:20.:05:22.

a transitional arrangement with the European Union.

:05:23.:05:28.

If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,

:05:29.:05:36.

would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall

:05:37.:05:42.

back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My

:05:43.:05:47.

understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically

:05:48.:05:50.

include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU

:05:51.:05:55.

would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,

:05:56.:06:00.

and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal

:06:01.:06:05.

negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal

:06:06.:06:16.

negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover

:06:17.:06:18.

it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with

:06:19.:06:21.

Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because

:06:22.:06:29.

of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a

:06:30.:06:38.

free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic

:06:39.:06:41.

Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would

:06:42.:06:46.

be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field

:06:47.:06:49.

agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not

:06:50.:06:55.

be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we

:06:56.:07:00.

are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?

:07:01.:07:09.

It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls

:07:10.:07:11.

is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in

:07:12.:07:15.

public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually

:07:16.:07:20.

trade, the economy, the single market is more important than

:07:21.:07:24.

immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,

:07:25.:07:29.

that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a

:07:30.:07:33.

significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that

:07:34.:07:38.

the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,

:07:39.:07:49.

we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying

:07:50.:07:51.

Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.

:07:52.:07:59.

Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade

:08:00.:08:03.

agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and

:08:04.:08:08.

therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any

:08:09.:08:12.

deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The

:08:13.:08:17.

question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to

:08:18.:08:24.

the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another

:08:25.:08:26.

unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get

:08:27.:08:33.

this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks

:08:34.:08:37.

and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one

:08:38.:08:46.

gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,

:08:47.:08:54.

including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority

:08:55.:09:01.

of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the

:09:02.:09:04.

transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear

:09:05.:09:08.

Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all

:09:09.:09:13.

over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered

:09:14.:09:18.

about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are

:09:19.:09:26.

talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a

:09:27.:09:30.

trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they

:09:31.:09:35.

are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and

:09:36.:09:41.

stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't

:09:42.:09:46.

always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in

:09:47.:09:50.

tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will

:09:51.:09:55.

see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very

:09:56.:09:59.

badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something

:10:00.:10:05.

like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the

:10:06.:10:08.

Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people

:10:09.:10:12.

traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have

:10:13.:10:20.

vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have

:10:21.:10:24.

been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know

:10:25.:10:31.

how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over

:10:32.:10:35.

what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem

:10:36.:10:42.

for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to

:10:43.:10:47.

survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three

:10:48.:10:51.

months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They

:10:52.:10:55.

didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It

:10:56.:11:03.

needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because

:11:04.:11:09.

the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but

:11:10.:11:13.

I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until

:11:14.:11:18.

the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When

:11:19.:11:23.

you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion

:11:24.:11:26.

being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early

:11:27.:11:31.

election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she

:11:32.:11:36.

can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to

:11:37.:11:43.

be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just

:11:44.:11:46.

a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough

:11:47.:11:51.

time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the

:11:52.:11:56.

single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a

:11:57.:12:01.

general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the

:12:02.:12:06.

same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate

:12:07.:12:16.

that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will

:12:17.:12:19.

split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get

:12:20.:12:23.

Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a

:12:24.:12:27.

good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow

:12:28.:12:32.

Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.

:12:33.:12:36.

There he is. Where is the hand? That is the

:12:37.:12:48.

worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair

:12:49.:12:56.

of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man

:12:57.:13:00.

most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular

:13:01.:13:08.

culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,

:13:09.:13:14.

bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you

:13:15.:13:21.

don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get

:13:22.:13:24.

it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back

:13:25.:13:27.

with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next

:13:28.:13:29.

Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:30.:13:33.

it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these

:13:34.:14:06.

amazing lives, You're like a...

:14:07.:14:09.

Different person? Delve deeper.

:14:10.:14:19.

Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me

:14:20.:14:29.

that I can actually remember. They have something on me

:14:30.:14:30.

that I can actually remember. The final chapter between

:14:31.:14:34.

Gibson and Spector.

:14:35.:14:39.

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by minister of state for international development Rory Stewart, shadow secretary of state for defence Nia Griffith and Paul Nuttall MEP. Political panellists include The Sun's Tom Newton Dunn, The Guardian's Polly Toynbee and The Spectator's Toby Young.


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