23/10/2016 Sunday Politics West


23/10/2016

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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

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leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

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This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

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So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

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The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

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on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

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But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

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In the West: The Stroud mum behind Momentum Kids.

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They hit back at claims that their brand of

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political childcare is creating a generation of tiny Trots.

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one of the richest cities in the world. Should all private landlords

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be licensed to help tackle the squalor?

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And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -

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The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided

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The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous

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Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".

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This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,

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announced that she would be running for the leadership.

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I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,

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and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is

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because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support

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And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures

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on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.

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Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me

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I know head office was besieged with letters in support.

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I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing

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of our members, because our members are the most important

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Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years

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and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.

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Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.

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Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be

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the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only

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amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the

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MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip

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needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is

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looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four

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step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an

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ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at

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all. Students of political history know that political parties take a

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long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is

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facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us

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on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am

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the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the

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party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common

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challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the

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last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I

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have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time

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away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done

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and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be

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the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very

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experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step

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in and bring the party together You told the Liverpool Echo on the night

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of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want

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that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party

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is facing an existential crisis and I want to make sure that Ukip is on

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the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We

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have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to

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be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne

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would be an excellent candidate I thought the 2015 manifesto was the

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best out of all the political parties. I would be the best

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candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within

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the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I

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could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain

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Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,

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I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the

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next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership

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election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the

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new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the

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referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar

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schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have

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Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of

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March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a

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strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a

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huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party

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no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working

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people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to

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Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the

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north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class

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communities right across the country is. There are working-class

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communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a

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number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I

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believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so

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if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.

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I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that

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called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to

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move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive

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Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and

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concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing

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my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the

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game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the

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candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you

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keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European

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Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we

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would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you

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think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win

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female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone

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out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't

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think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I

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wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think

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the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you

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win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first

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couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to

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factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of

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the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify

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Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us

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this morning. We won't have to wait too long

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to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -

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the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for

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Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today

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is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or

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Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently

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Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip

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to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is

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a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst

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nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality

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difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne

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Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be

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taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the

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Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the

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Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things

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always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and

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Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.

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But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best

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secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We

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have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch

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there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash

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we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond

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May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United

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Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May

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2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to

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start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that

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leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall

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see. In June 2014, the group which calls

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itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's

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second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced

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it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,

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on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided

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by Iranian-backed Shia fighters Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air

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support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb

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from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before

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it destroys them. These are the first steps

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in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has

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made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around

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2 million people means that they established governance,

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they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,

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because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more

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than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric

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of another society. It's being billed as the biggest

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military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest

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moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces

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are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south

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the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,

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trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up

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of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,

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a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused

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of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying

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villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel

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on the ground. To the North West, a corridor

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has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,

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in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed

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when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle

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and it's taking place in the outlying villages

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and there have been some successes and some failures,

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but the momentum is building. And the real question will be

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when the attackers get towards the city itself,

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how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack

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within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,

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on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,

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including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds

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of thousands of families have been rounded up

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as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,

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but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,

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the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,

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they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not

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for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want

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to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni

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majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have

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helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis

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Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something

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from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames

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and was then carved up, it is because that is what is

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happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut

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across by other identities such And that means that putting together

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a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be

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a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq

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at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul

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is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant

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which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that

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come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing

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but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International

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Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was

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the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following

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the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at some

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stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first

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thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being

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the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident

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predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi

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forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I

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would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one

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STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.

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June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and

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they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million

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people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they

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have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of

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Mosul, and that is a fundamental blow. Islamic State is all about

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territory and holding state, that is what makes it different from

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Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that will be a cynic -- significant blow

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to their credibility. Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday's

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presidential debate that when Iraqi forces with their allies including

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the United Kingdom gain control of Mosul they should continue to press

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into Syria to take back Raqqa which is the de facto capital of the

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caliphate, what is left of it, do we want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into

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Syria? Very important question. Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from

:18:09.:18:12.

people on the Syrian side of the border and that is an important

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principle -- the lead. In the end of that enemy, Islamic State, is a

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common enemy for odd members of the coalition including the Iraqi

:18:24.:18:29.

government. -- all members. There is likely to be a humanitarian crisis

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especially if it ends up with street to street fighting and IS are

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difficult to dislodge what are we doing about that? We are doing very

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detailed scenario planning. It is very uncertain what the scenario

:18:44.:18:47.

will be but much investment has gone into creating a network of camps,

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refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps around cash refugee camps, and that

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is where money, British money, 40 million has gone recently into

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supporting that, especially in terms of medical support to people. The

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United nation's emergency response budget is ?196 million but only one

:19:15.:19:17.

third funded which sounds like we are putting up a big chunk of what

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is already being funded. Why is that? The international committee

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can't say they haven't seen this assault coming, and the humanitarian

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fallout they may see from it. You are absolutely right. We have seen

:19:32.:19:36.

it coming and we have been planning since debris and we have put in

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about ?167 million into this -- planning since February. There has

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been a change in the nature of the appeal, and if there is a lag in the

:19:46.:19:48.

accounting of it, but the money we need at this stage is in place and

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we do have the support structure in place for those refugees. You are

:19:53.:19:56.

right the United Nations is continuing with its appeal and is

:19:57.:20:00.

asking for more money at the moment. The converse magazine wrote this

:20:01.:20:03.

week that preparations for a big exodus of people leaving the city

:20:04.:20:08.

have been made -- Economist magazine. But confidence is not high

:20:09.:20:13.

in the preparations, is that a unfair conclusion? If you can

:20:14.:20:19.

imagine the different scenarios it could be a few thousand and it could

:20:20.:20:22.

be a few hundred thousand coming out of the city through a front line

:20:23.:20:25.

where the war is going on, that is very difficult. You have to screen

:20:26.:20:30.

those people and disarm them, and keep families together, and

:20:31.:20:34.

transport them and you have to bring them into the refugee camps. The

:20:35.:20:38.

people working on this have been working on this for long time, we

:20:39.:20:41.

have mapped the different routes we have good camp infrastructure in

:20:42.:20:47.

place and we have people who have worked in south to dam and other

:20:48.:20:51.

areas who are putting their structures in place -- South Sudan.

:20:52.:20:56.

It is never easy but I think we have done everything we can in the

:20:57.:20:59.

preparation for this. What is the British role in what will probably

:21:00.:21:06.

be an even bigger issue, assuming that Mosul is liberated and retaken,

:21:07.:21:11.

the humanitarian crisis is dealt with, what role will we play in the

:21:12.:21:17.

rebuilding of Mosul? That will be crucial to the future of Iraq, the

:21:18.:21:21.

second-biggest city and it will need to be rebuilt. It will need to be

:21:22.:21:27.

rebuilt as a community as well as bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni

:21:28.:21:32.

community that is not harassed by the Shia. -- and eight. You are

:21:33.:21:40.

right. One of the core drivers is that the Sunni community felt

:21:41.:21:42.

excluded and they did not feel they have the trust from the Baghdad

:21:43.:21:46.

government. A lasting solution is stopping some of Islamic State

:21:47.:21:54.

coming back, that involves making sure the Sunni community have a

:21:55.:21:58.

stake in their future. That is making sure that the governing

:21:59.:22:03.

structures are in place. The UK s response is twofold, we have got to

:22:04.:22:07.

get the humanitarian aid right, that is the short term, people who might

:22:08.:22:11.

be malnourished, coming out of the front line. The second thing is

:22:12.:22:16.

working with the Iraqi government to make sure that as we rebuild Mosul

:22:17.:22:21.

we do so in a way that that population feels a connection to the

:22:22.:22:26.

Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing territory everywhere in the Levant,

:22:27.:22:31.

it is almost finished in Iraq, we think. It is down to one district in

:22:32.:22:36.

Libya, as well, just one small part of the town. I suppose the risk is,

:22:37.:22:43.

if life is becoming more difficult across these areas, it can start to

:22:44.:22:48.

look more in Europe and the United Kingdom as a place to continue its

:22:49.:22:52.

terrorist attacks? That is a real danger. You are right. This is a

:22:53.:22:58.

group which has proved over the last five years very unpredictable and it

:22:59.:23:02.

changes for it quickly full stop often it does unexpected things In

:23:03.:23:07.

2009 its predecessor had been largely wiped out in Iraq and when

:23:08.:23:13.

it was under pressure in Syria it went back into Iraq, and in the past

:23:14.:23:16.

it didn't hold territory but now it holds territory, so you are right.

:23:17.:23:21.

There is a serious risk that as it gets squeezed in the middle East it

:23:22.:23:25.

will try to pop up somewhere else and Mac could include Europe and the

:23:26.:23:29.

United States -- that could. They say that is something they have

:23:30.:23:33.

focused on full stop we also have a big focus on counterterrorism

:23:34.:23:38.

security and making sure that we keep the United Kingdom and Europe

:23:39.:23:46.

say. One final question. -- say -- safe. Maybe events in Mosul could

:23:47.:23:52.

add to the migration crisis in Europe, is that a possibility?

:23:53.:23:57.

Again, you are right, we have seen in Syria it can push migration, the

:23:58.:24:03.

biggest push the migration was the conflict in Syria, and that's the

:24:04.:24:06.

reason why we have but so much energy into getting those refugee

:24:07.:24:10.

camps in place and getting the humanitarian response in place -

:24:11.:24:15.

put so much energy. People will want to remain in their homes, this is

:24:16.:24:18.

their country, but we have got to make it possible for them and that

:24:19.:24:21.

means in the short term looking after their shelter and in the

:24:22.:24:26.

medium to long-term making sure they have livelihoods, jobs and an

:24:27.:24:30.

economic development which is why our support in Iraq is in the UK

:24:31.:24:34.

National interests because it deals with these issues of migration and

:24:35.:24:40.

terrorists. Thanks for joining us. I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence

:24:41.:24:44.

Secretary. Does Labour support British

:24:45.:25:01.

participation in this offensive We fully support the participation in

:25:02.:25:05.

this offensive, extremely important move forward and we voted for this

:25:06.:25:10.

back in 2014. We are asking the government question is, of course, I

:25:11.:25:14.

was asking the Secretary of State this week about this very offensive

:25:15.:25:20.

but we are fully behind our RAF pilots out there and be trading that

:25:21.:25:23.

has been going on to help the forces on the ground. -- the training full

:25:24.:25:29.

stop that is very clear. I wonder if you'll lead it shares that clarity

:25:30.:25:35.

and that position. -- is your leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn

:25:36.:25:38.

has said. What's been done in Iraq

:25:39.:25:40.

is done by the Iraqi government, and currently

:25:41.:25:42.

supported by the British government. I did not support it

:25:43.:25:44.

when it came up. Well, I'm not sure how successful

:25:45.:25:46.

it's been, because most of the action now appears to be

:25:47.:25:50.

moving in to Syria, so I think we He doesn't sound very supportive.

:25:51.:26:01.

The issue about Mosul, it has been very carefully prepared as Rory

:26:02.:26:04.

Stewart said and I hope we have learned the lessons from previous

:26:05.:26:10.

offensives where we haven't learnt sufficiently, and that is going to

:26:11.:26:14.

be crucial in this context. How the aftermath is going to be dealt with.

:26:15.:26:19.

Of course will stop that clip was from November last year, and things

:26:20.:26:24.

have changed. Two weeks ago he told the BBC" I'm not sure it is

:26:25.:26:30.

working", in reference to air strikes in Iraq, but it is working.

:26:31.:26:34.

We have got to see what happens in Mosul, it is a very high-risk

:26:35.:26:38.

operation, but we also have to face the fact that the people there are

:26:39.:26:42.

living under tyranny at the moment. We have to ask very cirrus question

:26:43.:26:49.

shall stop he says he's not sure it is working, when Mosul is the last

:26:50.:26:52.

major target be cleared of Islamic State in Iraq. The combination of

:26:53.:26:57.

Allied air power has worked, why is he not sure it is working? Because

:26:58.:27:01.

we have seen difficulties in the past. But this was two weeks ago. It

:27:02.:27:08.

is essential that the work is done, both planning for the refugees as

:27:09.:27:11.

Rory Stewart referred to, but also in terms of reconstruction of the

:27:12.:27:14.

city and its community as you mentioned. These are vital. This was

:27:15.:27:20.

about the ability to make progress with Allied air power, special

:27:21.:27:25.

forces in Iraq, on the ground, do you accept so far that has a

:27:26.:27:30.

strategy that seems to be working to read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq

:27:31.:27:42.

of Islamic State the question of the car began placement. Ulloa -- we

:27:43.:27:55.

can't be complacent. The problems they are creating where ever they

:27:56.:27:57.

are urged that we must continue to pursue them. This is the first time

:27:58.:28:03.

we have spoken to since you have become the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:28:04.:28:06.

I hope we will have a longer interview. Will Labour's next

:28:07.:28:12.

manifesto include a commitment to the renewal of Trident? It will We

:28:13.:28:17.

made that commitment in 2007, that is a firm commitment and we will

:28:18.:28:21.

honour that to our coalition allies and our industrial partners and that

:28:22.:28:24.

is the vote which was taken democratically and repeatedly has

:28:25.:28:28.

been reaffirmed by Labour conference and we are a democratic party vote

:28:29.:28:34.

up you have squared that with Jeremy Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy

:28:35.:28:40.

and he understands the situation, but we also want to push for the UK

:28:41.:28:44.

to play a much bigger role on the international stage on multilateral

:28:45.:28:49.

disarmament talks. You were very clear there, I thank you for that.

:28:50.:28:53.

Support for Trident will be in the next Labour manifesto. What has

:28:54.:28:57.

happened to Labour's review of Trident policy? That review has been

:28:58.:29:03.

taking place over the year, we had a very clear reaffirmation in the

:29:04.:29:08.

conference boat this year, we are reaffirming our commitment to

:29:09.:29:11.

Trident -- vote. The review can t change that? There is a process of

:29:12.:29:18.

review and a fair number of issues related to defence, all parties do

:29:19.:29:24.

this. Of course. The review can t change the commitment to Trident? We

:29:25.:29:28.

are not changing the commitment to Trident. Russia is now the main

:29:29.:29:34.

strategic threat to this country? It is a major strategic threat and we

:29:35.:29:36.

have got to work with our Nato allies very closely and make sure

:29:37.:29:40.

that we respond and that we do not let things pass. For example, we

:29:41.:29:44.

should be calling out Russia for the way it has been a bombing

:29:45.:29:50.

humanitarian aid and we should be taking them to international court

:29:51.:29:52.

over this, but we should also be strengthening sanctions, somewhat

:29:53.:30:00.

imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let

:30:01.:30:05.

us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European

:30:06.:30:06.

initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain

:30:07.:30:13.

should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.

:30:14.:30:16.

Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle

:30:17.:30:21.

being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria

:30:22.:30:24.

has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's

:30:25.:30:28.

five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,

:30:29.:30:31.

in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English

:30:32.:30:34.

channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest

:30:35.:30:38.

surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought

:30:39.:30:41.

to be preparation for a final assault

:30:42.:30:44.

on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting

:30:45.:30:48.

resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -

:30:49.:30:52.

with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's

:30:53.:30:57.

rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been

:30:58.:31:00.

killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,

:31:01.:31:03.

backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned

:31:04.:31:07.

Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow

:31:08.:31:14.

of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support

:31:15.:31:17.

of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided

:31:18.:31:20.

on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied

:31:21.:31:24.

with domestic politics, President Putin senses this

:31:25.:31:27.

is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former

:31:28.:31:31.

Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master

:31:32.:31:39.

of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC

:31:40.:31:52.

studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to

:31:53.:31:59.

get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the

:32:00.:32:04.

commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New

:32:05.:32:09.

York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.

:32:10.:32:14.

Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in

:32:15.:32:19.

control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles

:32:20.:32:26.

wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it

:32:27.:32:30.

inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what

:32:31.:32:39.

President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce

:32:40.:32:45.

bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the

:32:46.:32:49.

Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when

:32:50.:32:54.

the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they

:32:55.:33:00.

went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking

:33:01.:33:05.

about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of

:33:06.:33:11.

the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The

:33:12.:33:15.

purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and

:33:16.:33:19.

then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more

:33:20.:33:24.

complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there

:33:25.:33:29.

was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so

:33:30.:33:33.

many different parties involved We have seen the alarm in the west of

:33:34.:33:37.

the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been

:33:38.:33:47.

rumblings in the west of, shouldn't the United States do something?

:33:48.:33:50.

Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier

:33:51.:33:53.

steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,

:33:54.:33:59.

both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved

:34:00.:34:05.

in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the

:34:06.:34:11.

ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the

:34:12.:34:15.

aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the

:34:16.:34:22.

rebel controlled area does fall it would be seen as a great victory for

:34:23.:34:26.

President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia

:34:27.:34:31.

here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan

:34:32.:34:36.

that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia

:34:37.:34:43.

went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.

:34:44.:34:46.

President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or

:34:47.:34:51.

its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the

:34:52.:34:56.

argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the

:34:57.:35:02.

only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue

:35:03.:35:10.

argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.

:35:11.:35:18.

They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence

:35:19.:35:22.

at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to

:35:23.:35:30.

push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided

:35:31.:35:36.

Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.

:35:37.:35:41.

The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted

:35:42.:35:46.

by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there

:35:47.:35:51.

is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that

:35:52.:36:01.

part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to

:36:02.:36:06.

admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric

:36:07.:36:12.

from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are

:36:13.:36:17.

an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in

:36:18.:36:21.

the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging

:36:22.:36:27.

with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the

:36:28.:36:32.

place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in

:36:33.:36:38.

the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a

:36:39.:36:43.

country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is

:36:44.:36:47.

now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important

:36:48.:36:53.

message. Looking at the economy It is in recession. GDP has been

:36:54.:36:58.

falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:59.:37:03.

hydrocarbons, and is expected to fall again. Its people are falling

:37:04.:37:08.

again. People don't realise how small the Russian economy is. Its

:37:09.:37:14.

GDP is about the size of Italy's. It is smaller than the UK economy.

:37:15.:37:19.

Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years ago. But so is Britain's does it

:37:20.:37:29.

help to take people's mind of this? A huge shock to the Russian economy

:37:30.:37:35.

was a drop in the price of oil and a price of gas. A drop in the price of

:37:36.:37:40.

the ruble as well. This is hurting the people of Russia. On the one

:37:41.:37:45.

hand, it is the war in Syria, which is very important for Russia to sort

:37:46.:37:50.

out that part of the world and dispensed terrorists who might be

:37:51.:37:58.

danger to -- is dangerous to Russia. But he had also has presidential

:37:59.:38:03.

election is going up. They are supposed to be 2018, but some feel

:38:04.:38:07.

he will bring them forward to 2 17, because the economy is not doing so

:38:08.:38:12.

well. But you need a good story for the Russian people. Thank you very

:38:13.:38:14.

much. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:15.:38:16.

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to

:38:17.:38:27.

Sunday Politics here in the West. Coming up: When politics

:38:28.:38:29.

is child's play. We hear from one of the founders

:38:30.:38:33.

of Momentum Kids which organises activities for children

:38:34.:38:36.

with a political flavour. They'll respond to claims that

:38:37.:38:40.

they're making a generation of mini I'm joined by two grown-ups

:38:41.:38:43.

with youngsters of their own. It's a Coalition pairing just

:38:44.:38:49.

like the old times. Conservation group leader

:38:50.:38:52.

on Bristol City Council Mark Weston and for the Lib Dems,

:38:53.:38:57.

their general election candhdate for Kingswood when the election

:38:58.:38:59.

comes, Carole Wilkinson. Let's start with the

:39:00.:39:11.

by-election in Whitney. Are you shocked or surprised

:39:12.:39:15.

by the Lib Dem's surge? I have to confess to being puite

:39:16.:39:19.

happy with the result. When David Cameron first won

:39:20.:39:23.

the seat he won with 45% of the vote We've been in government for six

:39:24.:39:26.

years and we won it So, from a Conservative point

:39:27.:39:31.

of view I'm quite happy. But the Lib Dems had a pretty good

:39:32.:39:36.

result and bucked the trend Our vote's been going up

:39:37.:39:39.

across the country. Partly they ran an excellent

:39:40.:39:46.

campaign and got stuck into that. The other thing I think is people

:39:47.:39:59.

are really very worried about what is going on with Brexit,

:40:00.:40:02.

about noises they're hearing It will be interesting

:40:03.:40:05.

to see what happens Do you think it's a sign th`t people

:40:06.:40:09.

don't want a hard Brexit? I don't think you can read too much

:40:10.:40:15.

into a single by-election. There needs to be a much wider

:40:16.:40:18.

sampling of the vote. I think one of the problems we have

:40:19.:40:21.

with Brexit is we need more information but it's a complicated

:40:22.:40:27.

negotiations so the information But I'm happy with the result

:40:28.:40:29.

and glad I'm not in Ukip's shoes. OK, even though you lost

:40:30.:40:35.

a lot of support. How's this for a solution

:40:36.:40:38.

to the financial woes faced by some A big one-off leap in counchl tax

:40:39.:40:41.

without restrictions. That is what Swindon is doing

:40:42.:40:47.

with a catch, you have to create a whole new layer

:40:48.:40:49.

of local government. They've cut and cut and cut,

:40:50.:40:57.

but now Swindon Borough Council wants to hand over jobs likd grass

:40:58.:41:00.

cutting to parish councils. There aren't any in most of the town

:41:01.:41:04.

so three would be created. They could then add a chargd

:41:05.:41:07.

to council tax bills, perhaps ? 5. We're facing unprecedented budget

:41:08.:41:20.

pressures and we are facing unprecedented pressure

:41:21.:41:22.

on our services for vulnerable That squeezes in important local

:41:23.:41:24.

services, like street cleanhng and grass cutting and looking

:41:25.:41:33.

after children's playgrounds. This allows us to ring fencd that

:41:34.:41:35.

money and provide the It was backed by the ruling

:41:36.:41:37.

Conservative cabinet and there was much talk

:41:38.:41:43.

of the rising cost of social services and falling

:41:44.:41:45.

funding from Whitehall. But that may not mean much

:41:46.:41:49.

to the 130,000 residents We pay a lot of money

:41:50.:41:52.

out and they don't do It seems to be an excuse

:41:53.:42:01.

to put everything up It's bad isn't it because wd pay

:42:02.:42:04.

enough now for different thhngs It is also being

:42:05.:42:12.

considered in Bristol. At present, it has no town or parish

:42:13.:42:17.

councils in contrast As people in Bristol want to know

:42:18.:42:20.

what it's like to have an extra local council all they need to do

:42:21.:42:28.

is cross the city boundary. Although it is part of urban

:42:29.:42:31.

South Gloucestershire, It's interesting to

:42:32.:42:33.

compare it to Kingswood. Kingswood is a suburb that's also

:42:34.:42:39.

part of South Gloucestershire but it Filton has a leisure centre

:42:40.:42:42.

and so does Kingswood. They have similar facilities and,

:42:43.:42:52.

yes, both have playgrounds though the town council boasts

:42:53.:42:55.

that they have rather You're saying people in Filton

:42:56.:42:58.

get better facilities No, I think just maybe

:42:59.:43:02.

we get a bum deal. Yes, because these things are extra

:43:03.:43:15.

and this is why our services are a bit higher than counchls

:43:16.:43:18.

nearby because they don't h`ve Filton's ?190 council tax charge

:43:19.:43:23.

also funds offices and staff. Councillors themselves aren't paid,

:43:24.:43:30.

but holding elections aren't cheap The problem is getting

:43:31.:43:34.

people to do it. We struggle here quite often to be

:43:35.:43:41.

quorate at meetings because it's Back in Swindon like in Swindon

:43:42.:43:44.

dozens of new councillors whll be needed if the plan gets a fhnal

:43:45.:43:55.

go-ahead next month. Joining me is David Reynard,

:43:56.:44:00.

the leader of Swindon The plan is to complete this

:44:01.:44:02.

patchwork of parish councils and, therefore, you will be able to say

:44:03.:44:10.

to the parish councils, Half of Swindon is parished

:44:11.:44:14.

half isn't in Swindon, mainly for historical reasons,

:44:15.:44:21.

but we want to extend the bdnefits It would give local

:44:22.:44:24.

residents more choice over And less choice over

:44:25.:44:33.

how much cash they pay? You quoted ?75, but I represent

:44:34.:44:38.

and live in a parished area and pay ?35 a year and I get really good

:44:39.:44:44.

services for that money. What many people may suspect is that

:44:45.:44:48.

council spending is tight so you devolve it to parish level

:44:49.:44:52.

and there is no cap That is true but the governlent

:44:53.:44:56.

is consulting on that. And we're already doing that

:44:57.:45:02.

with existing parishes. So it's a way of getting more money

:45:03.:45:17.

out of the tax taxpayer? No, it's about protecting

:45:18.:45:20.

services people value. If they stay with the borough

:45:21.:45:26.

council, more of our money hs going on adult and children social care,

:45:27.:45:29.

therefore there will be less to pay Actually, it's about raising

:45:30.:45:32.

extra revenue as well? You are on Bristol City Council

:45:33.:45:36.

would you support parishes springing No, I must confess

:45:37.:45:44.

to not being a fan. As David said, half of their

:45:45.:45:53.

residents are already in parishes. In Bristol, it's a new structure

:45:54.:45:58.

for everybody and I must confess to being nervous about sudddnly

:45:59.:46:02.

having additional As far as I see it, I would end up

:46:03.:46:05.

paying for another level of I'm slightly concerned that some

:46:06.:46:12.

of the wealthier areas of the city would be able to have a fairly low

:46:13.:46:18.

charge to do what they want and the poorer areas

:46:19.:46:23.

can least afford it. It would be up to each individual

:46:24.:46:29.

parish council to decide wh`t level of services they want to provide

:46:30.:46:32.

and we have that in Swindon. Are you putting up the council tax

:46:33.:46:37.

by the maximum you can each year? We are, as I think you'll fhnd

:46:38.:46:46.

all top tier councils are doing You're a former parish

:46:47.:46:50.

councillor, aren't you? This has come about because of

:46:51.:46:52.

severe cuts in government ftnding In South Gloucestershire,

:46:53.:46:55.

they had to take ?38 million a year out of the budget announced

:46:56.:47:01.

an additional 40 million. Bristol council had to get rid

:47:02.:47:07.

of 1,000 jobs in a month As a parish councillor,

:47:08.:47:09.

do you support it? Parish councils are extremely

:47:10.:47:17.

valuable where the people involved are engaged and represent

:47:18.:47:20.

a whole load of different people in the community

:47:21.:47:27.

add a constructive. Some parish councils

:47:28.:47:29.

don't function very well. It's all about the people you can

:47:30.:47:33.

get on board and moving forward OK, other cities miss out bx not

:47:34.:47:38.

having local representation that There is a difference betwedn places

:47:39.:47:42.

which are in cities and havd a good At the moment, parish counchls

:47:43.:47:50.

are being asked to do things like fund all the things

:47:51.:47:56.

which the council used to ftnd before and if they don't find

:47:57.:48:00.

it, who does? It doesn't have to just

:48:01.:48:11.

be parish councillors! Let us talk about the bigger issue

:48:12.:48:22.

of council tax rises. Bristol has announced

:48:23.:48:24.

cuts to services to come and still the council tax

:48:25.:48:26.

going up by 4% a year over That's a tremendous amount

:48:27.:48:29.

of money, isn't it? We have a particular demogr`phic

:48:30.:48:33.

with more older people. So, you support the mayor's plan

:48:34.:48:35.

to put up the council tax? We're still in consultation

:48:36.:48:41.

so I can't commit, but I can understand the reasons why

:48:42.:48:44.

you'd have to do it. And 4% a year is going to bd

:48:45.:48:47.

a couple of hundred quid, isn't it? Theresa May talks about hard-working

:48:48.:48:54.

families not losing out but that's a weekend away or a holiday perhaps

:48:55.:49:02.

in five years' time? As Conservatives, we're keen to keep

:49:03.:49:07.

tax as low as possible, but Mark is right, the incrdase

:49:08.:49:10.

in the number of elderly who need care and support,

:49:11.:49:13.

the number of young people By 2020, we anticipate that 80%

:49:14.:49:16.

of our budget will be spent on supporting vulnerable people

:49:17.:49:23.

and that is the challenge. Few political ideas have catsed

:49:24.:49:28.

delight and derision in such equal At its heart it's about combining

:49:29.:49:35.

childcare with politics, but some believe more sinister

:49:36.:49:41.

motives are at play. Robin Markwell takes up a t`le that

:49:42.:49:45.

began in Gloucestershire. Once upon a time in the land not

:49:46.:49:49.

so far-away, there lived a lan One day the people who really

:49:50.:50:01.

liked him and wanted him to be Prime Minister

:50:02.:50:06.

held a big conference. But they found talking

:50:07.:50:11.

about politics whilst looking after their children hard

:50:12.:50:14.

so they formed a childcare group It's immediately clear wherd

:50:15.:50:17.

the founder of momentum kids lives, from the sign on the window

:50:18.:50:27.

to the banner in the front room This is apolitical household

:50:28.:50:33.

and this Stroud mum wants From asking them what poliches their

:50:34.:50:39.

teddy bear should be championing... The teddy bear has a whole list

:50:40.:50:48.

of ideas about how the teddx bear ..to word searches with

:50:49.:50:53.

a radical bent. We've got words here

:50:54.:50:58.

like equality, state, love. You don't often see that

:50:59.:51:02.

in a child's word search! But Momentum Kids, to put it mildly,

:51:03.:51:07.

has not been without its crhtics. From being lampooned on sochal media

:51:08.:51:12.

- in this case D is for desdlection They've even seized the nurseries,

:51:13.:51:16.

too, opening branches of Molentum Or my particular

:51:17.:51:24.

favourite, Tiny Trots. I don't think people are re`lly

:51:25.:51:37.

getting why we're doing this. It was about inclusion

:51:38.:51:43.

and about making our lives lore interesting and better

:51:44.:51:47.

and bringing our families There is an element

:51:48.:51:49.

of indoctrination of childrdn They are shown adverts,

:51:50.:51:55.

pink for girls in blue for boys They are constantly

:51:56.:52:02.

being marketed to. We're trying to create an atmosphere

:52:03.:52:05.

for children to be curious I'm not particularly interested

:52:06.:52:08.

in my children being mini Corbynistas because,

:52:09.:52:14.

quite frankly, in 20 years when they're out doing thei

:52:15.:52:17.

grass roots activism, The aim is to roll this out

:52:18.:52:21.

nationwide and that evening we were given a sneak previdw of how

:52:22.:52:28.

it might work. At a gym in Swindon

:52:29.:52:30.

they held a trial session, Tell me when the bad guy

:52:31.:52:33.

is about to grab you. The lesson here was

:52:34.:52:39.

about empowerment. And while inside they learn

:52:40.:52:46.

to deal with an attack... It meant the mums could go outside

:52:47.:52:50.

and talk politics with a sm`ll P. Children are a lot more savvy today

:52:51.:52:55.

with what's going on. Certainly more so than

:52:56.:52:59.

I was at that age. It's fun, challenging and vdry

:53:00.:53:02.

improving on our skills. And you get too big to mum

:53:03.:53:12.

up as well? It's trying to get kids

:53:13.:53:20.

to be more listened I'm interested in politics

:53:21.:53:26.

and I think that maybe bringing politics to children

:53:27.:53:30.

might be a bit useful. So, is this a bid to create

:53:31.:53:33.

the Corbyn street fighters of tomorrow or a movement

:53:34.:53:43.

to be applauded? Getting more youngsters

:53:44.:53:46.

to grapple with politics. Joining us now is Natasha

:53:47.:53:52.

who you saw in that film. Welcome and we saw your delhghtful

:53:53.:53:56.

children. Do they go on strike

:53:57.:53:58.

for more pocket money? It's all about bribery

:53:59.:54:01.

with kids, isn't it? Is it indoctrination or is ht common

:54:02.:54:10.

sense and fun? It's like I said in the clip just

:54:11.:54:16.

then, children are indoctrinated. We're talking about questioning

:54:17.:54:22.

curious children and whilst we ,as activists, are going out

:54:23.:54:29.

and having meetings, whether it's Labour Party

:54:30.:54:32.

meetings at seven o'clock when I want to put the kids to bed,

:54:33.:54:38.

or Momentum activism, there is a platform that's

:54:39.:54:41.

completely inclusive. Momentum is regarded

:54:42.:54:44.

as being on the left of Labour and if there were a group

:54:45.:54:48.

on the right of the Conserv`tives for young kids telling them

:54:49.:54:51.

about immigration and self-reliance and that sort of stuff,

:54:52.:54:55.

what would you say about th`t? I think to a certain extent people

:54:56.:55:00.

are missing the point with what we're trying to do

:55:01.:55:04.

because yes there are children's activities but actually

:55:05.:55:08.

the most important thing If we're talking about a group

:55:09.:55:10.

like Momentum who are opening out to so many people,

:55:11.:55:15.

20,000 members, we're talking about inclusion,

:55:16.:55:19.

equality and diversity and hn order to do that you have two provide

:55:20.:55:24.

support for everybody. As a mum what I wanted to do

:55:25.:55:35.

was start something that made it easy for people

:55:36.:55:38.

like me, actually. OK, let us bring

:55:39.:55:41.

in our other guests. You're from the group called

:55:42.:55:43.

the Parents' Union, is Do you think it's right for mums

:55:44.:55:46.

and dads to have time out and for the kids to get somd sort

:55:47.:55:52.

of political awareness? For parents, like you say,

:55:53.:55:56.

it's getting women into polhtics... I have three kids and it's

:55:57.:56:01.

been really difficult. Luckily mine are getting older

:56:02.:56:05.

but I would have thought I think there's no harm whatsoever

:56:06.:56:07.

in children being told it's fine to question the status quo

:56:08.:56:14.

and asking questions and becoming aware of issues because children

:56:15.:56:17.

are affected by politics evdry day. Do their parents have

:56:18.:56:20.

to pay for the school bus? What did they teach

:56:21.:56:24.

you at Lib Dem school? Probably from my own perspective,

:56:25.:56:33.

because I don't come from a political family,

:56:34.:56:48.

when I was a kid we went to Sunday school creche

:56:49.:56:50.

and then Sunday school. I've grown up and made

:56:51.:56:52.

my own decisions. Have you stuck with those

:56:53.:56:54.

Sunday school views? I coloured in pictures of prophets

:56:55.:56:57.

and Jesus but I certainly don't We want people to be

:56:58.:57:02.

involved in politics. I think probably the word sdarch

:57:03.:57:10.

with "Unionise" has allowed what they're trying

:57:11.:57:13.

to do to come into it. If "Capitalism" is the next word I'm

:57:14.:57:18.

sure it will be fine! Children are susceptible

:57:19.:57:21.

to a lot of things and that impression and influence coles

:57:22.:57:35.

from all manner of directions. In politics we're trying

:57:36.:57:39.

keep that balance. If nothing else, they will rebel

:57:40.:57:43.

against us horribly in later life. You might find yourself

:57:44.:57:47.

with rebellious children. We would welcome them

:57:48.:57:51.

to the fold, of course! Childhood is probably one

:57:52.:57:53.

of the least democratic timds Your parents always

:57:54.:57:58.

tell you what to do. How do you get from that to sending

:57:59.:58:03.

them out into the world as electorates, they will bd voting,

:58:04.:58:06.

to question and think about what they want

:58:07.:58:09.

in a political party? And what they can do

:58:10.:58:15.

to change the world. You don't have to worry

:58:16.:58:17.

about those things. You've got years to be concdrned

:58:18.:58:21.

with grown-up issues. You need space just to play

:58:22.:58:23.

and have fun. Actually, if you have been

:58:24.:58:27.

to our Facebook page and sedn some of the placards the children did,

:58:28.:58:31.

own their own, "Proper jobs There are already thinking

:58:32.:58:34.

about this stuff. And you take them to

:58:35.:58:42.

demonstrations as well? We would like our members

:58:43.:58:44.

to have a presence there so there is a safe place for families to come

:58:45.:58:53.

and share their feelings. We have no minimum age

:58:54.:58:59.

of membership. I see no problem with that `nd it

:59:00.:59:03.

if it helps carers... Are children naturally soci`list,

:59:04.:59:18.

do you think? I don't know if it's

:59:19.:59:20.

socialism or capitalism. I don't think it's defined

:59:21.:59:28.

as an ideology which is why if we talking about education it has

:59:29.:59:39.

to be a balanced approach I'm fully fearful that mine

:59:40.:59:42.

will rebel hard and join With news of defections and Brexit

:59:43.:59:45.

themed Christmas card here's a round-up in 60 seconds and this

:59:46.:59:56.

week it is by Robin. The Swindon Labour councillor

:59:57.:00:01.

performed a double He decided to join the Torids

:00:02.:00:03.

as he was unhappy with Jerely Corbyn and then he rejoined Labour claiming

:00:04.:00:09.

he'd made a mistake. Nick Clegg said his

:00:10.:00:12.

door was always open. He can always try the Lib Ddms

:00:13.:00:17.

and make it a hat-trick. The NHS trusts in Gloucestershire

:00:18.:00:25.

and Cheltenham was placed After months of doubt,

:00:26.:00:27.

Somerset is a 303 will be We are right to invest in pdak

:00:28.:00:33.

infrastructure like the A303. And if it ever to early to talk

:00:34.:00:46.

Christmas? We are very humorous people and it's

:00:47.:00:49.

not all doom and gloom. Campaign group Bristol for Durope

:00:50.:00:55.

has launched a range of Brexit themed Christmas cards designed

:00:56.:00:58.

to wish weaving remainders `re very And, on that festive note

:00:59.:01:07.

we must leave it for today. My thanks to all my guests

:01:08.:01:11.

were coming along to our sttdio We will be back next week,

:01:12.:01:14.

but for now letters go back go ahead with this policy, I know.

:01:15.:01:17.

And now back to Andrew. So, Brexit, airports,

:01:18.:01:29.

Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying

:01:30.:01:51.

there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq

:01:52.:01:54.

now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control

:01:55.:02:01.

a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small

:02:02.:02:10.

area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more

:02:11.:02:13.

dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the

:02:14.:02:18.

Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very

:02:19.:02:23.

interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,

:02:24.:02:28.

and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is

:02:29.:02:35.

about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You

:02:36.:02:38.

smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to

:02:39.:02:48.

warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in

:02:49.:02:59.

Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean

:03:00.:03:04.

into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,

:03:05.:03:08.

we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right

:03:09.:03:16.

for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions

:03:17.:03:21.

here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as

:03:22.:03:26.

we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages

:03:27.:03:30.

here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at

:03:31.:03:37.

least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical

:03:38.:03:45.

Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the

:03:46.:03:51.

Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so

:03:52.:03:58.

that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even

:03:59.:04:02.

if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that

:04:03.:04:07.

interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory

:04:08.:04:12.

said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some

:04:13.:04:17.

of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of

:04:18.:04:22.

the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour

:04:23.:04:26.

office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm

:04:27.:04:32.

not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get

:04:33.:04:35.

out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She

:04:36.:04:40.

sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should

:04:41.:04:46.

answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we

:04:47.:04:52.

saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be

:04:53.:04:56.

the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the

:04:57.:05:00.

Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give

:05:01.:05:03.

testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.

:05:04.:05:06.

I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that

:05:07.:05:10.

if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5

:05:11.:05:13.

to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading

:05:14.:05:15.

relationship, market access, including for services,

:05:16.:05:17.

80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,

:05:18.:05:19.

that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek

:05:20.:05:22.

a transitional arrangement with the European Union.

:05:23.:05:28.

If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,

:05:29.:05:36.

would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall

:05:37.:05:42.

back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My

:05:43.:05:47.

understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically

:05:48.:05:50.

include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU

:05:51.:05:55.

would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,

:05:56.:06:00.

and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal

:06:01.:06:05.

negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal

:06:06.:06:16.

negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover

:06:17.:06:18.

it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with

:06:19.:06:21.

Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because

:06:22.:06:29.

of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a

:06:30.:06:38.

free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic

:06:39.:06:41.

Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would

:06:42.:06:46.

be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field

:06:47.:06:49.

agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not

:06:50.:06:55.

be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we

:06:56.:07:00.

are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?

:07:01.:07:09.

It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls

:07:10.:07:11.

is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in

:07:12.:07:15.

public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually

:07:16.:07:20.

trade, the economy, the single market is more important than

:07:21.:07:24.

immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,

:07:25.:07:29.

that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a

:07:30.:07:33.

significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that

:07:34.:07:38.

the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,

:07:39.:07:49.

we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying

:07:50.:07:51.

Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.

:07:52.:07:59.

Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade

:08:00.:08:03.

agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and

:08:04.:08:08.

therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any

:08:09.:08:12.

deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The

:08:13.:08:17.

question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to

:08:18.:08:24.

the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another

:08:25.:08:26.

unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get

:08:27.:08:33.

this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks

:08:34.:08:37.

and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one

:08:38.:08:46.

gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,

:08:47.:08:54.

including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority

:08:55.:09:01.

of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the

:09:02.:09:04.

transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear

:09:05.:09:08.

Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all

:09:09.:09:13.

over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered

:09:14.:09:18.

about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are

:09:19.:09:26.

talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a

:09:27.:09:30.

trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they

:09:31.:09:35.

are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and

:09:36.:09:41.

stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't

:09:42.:09:46.

always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in

:09:47.:09:50.

tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will

:09:51.:09:55.

see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very

:09:56.:09:59.

badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something

:10:00.:10:05.

like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the

:10:06.:10:08.

Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people

:10:09.:10:12.

traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have

:10:13.:10:20.

vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have

:10:21.:10:24.

been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know

:10:25.:10:31.

how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over

:10:32.:10:35.

what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem

:10:36.:10:42.

for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to

:10:43.:10:47.

survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three

:10:48.:10:51.

months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They

:10:52.:10:55.

didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It

:10:56.:11:03.

needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because

:11:04.:11:09.

the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but

:11:10.:11:13.

I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until

:11:14.:11:18.

the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When

:11:19.:11:23.

you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion

:11:24.:11:26.

being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early

:11:27.:11:31.

election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she

:11:32.:11:36.

can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to

:11:37.:11:43.

be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just

:11:44.:11:46.

a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough

:11:47.:11:51.

time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the

:11:52.:11:56.

single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a

:11:57.:12:01.

general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the

:12:02.:12:06.

same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate

:12:07.:12:16.

that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will

:12:17.:12:19.

split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get

:12:20.:12:23.

Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a

:12:24.:12:27.

good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow

:12:28.:12:32.

Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.

:12:33.:12:36.

There he is. Where is the hand? That is the

:12:37.:12:48.

worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair

:12:49.:12:56.

of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man

:12:57.:13:00.

most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular

:13:01.:13:08.

culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,

:13:09.:13:14.

bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you

:13:15.:13:21.

don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get

:13:22.:13:24.

it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back

:13:25.:13:27.

with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next

:13:28.:13:29.

Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:30.:13:33.

it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these

:13:34.:14:06.

amazing lives, You're like a...

:14:07.:14:09.

Different person? Delve deeper.

:14:10.:14:19.

Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me

:14:20.:14:29.

that I can actually remember. They have something on me

:14:30.:14:30.

that I can actually remember. The final chapter between

:14:31.:14:34.

Gibson and Spector.

:14:35.:14:39.

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