27/11/2016 Sunday Politics West

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

The west, the Government wanted go head-to-head.

And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

That was what made it so fascinating.

Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

but some of the proposals are already running into local

opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

But east of England ambulance call operators

they're sending an early intervention vehicle

with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

It's being piloted here for over 65s with

When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

through after broad public and political consultation

with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

worth of efficiencies across the country.

In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

and care partnerships, and each one will provide

a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

provide better services and save money.

So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

in the health service and local government,

The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

about the importance of community hospitals in general,

These are proposals out to consultation.

What could happen if these plans get blocked?

If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

are in the interests of local people.

Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

to push through these controversial regional plans,

which will soon face public scrutiny.

We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

health, mental health and social care, for those services to

collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

money in. So of course, getting these services working better

together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

have the support of local authorities because they now have a

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

that the referendum result could be reversed.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

That prompted the former Conservative leader

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

because they disagree with the original result does

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics here the glorious west of

England. Coming up, forget Hinckley, we are talking about the other fast

energy Project held up by delays. Every home in Britain will be able

to upgrade to a smart meter by 2020. We are all meant to be getting smart

meters very soon, it is part of an ?11 billion scheme that is meant to

save you money on your bills, so why have only a few of us bothered so

far. And two high-energy politicians join

me in the studio this week, so don't reach for the off button. The Labour

MP for Bristol West, bang Debonair, and Ukip's deputy chairman William

Dartmouth, welcome to you both. I want to you about this week's big

story, the Autumn Statement, and it has emerged that the cost of leaving

Brexit according to the office of fiscal responsibility is ?58

billion. Worth it, William? This is yet another wonky estimate to a lot

of people -- from a lot of people who have produced wonky estimates in

the past, including the great financial crash of 2009. My

colleague, I have never met him: the same side of the political argument,

professor Patrick Minford, as pointed out the many flawed

assumptions which this estimate is based. As many people still know, we

are still in the European Union until such time as we leave. Which

is over two years ago, so these estimates can't be taken seriously.

On the off chance that they are right, would it be worth it? We have

always argued that either the UK is a sovereign country or it's not. And

the fact of the matter is we need to retain control of our laws and have

an end to open borders, stop making payments to the European Union and

also a repatriation of fishing. And that cost 58 billion, that is OK? I

also disagree with it because the fact of the matter is we have

actually dodged a bullet by getting out. I will bring Thangam Debbonaire

in. 58 billion, you call that dodging a bullet? If we had stayed

the Greek crisis is still going on, the Greek crisis is still going on,

the statistics are just not right. What price would have been

acceptable. Would 5 billion? 2 acceptable. Would 5 billion? 2

billion? What we need to talk about this week is there is 122 billion

black hole in the country's finances, 58 which can be accounted

for by Brexit alone and things will get worse, as you know, when we

leave. As we come out of the single market, firms in my constituency and

across the west will not be able to trade in the same way. 3 million

European workers are doing a great job in Britain, where are they going

to go? As it is likely to be down to MPs whether they trigger Article

could you proceed with Brexit, what will you do? We have said all along,

people didn't vote for chaos. What I have said very clearly is I want to

know what the Government's plan is an all they have said so far is

occasionally breakfast, so they have occasionally breakfast, so they have

no plan, so at the moment, there is nothing to vote for. We can't

trigger Article 50 without knowing that. Would you vote for article 52

be triggered at the moment? No, there is no plan, we need to know

what the planners. I point out that China, not a member of the European

more goods to the European Union more goods to the European Union

than we do. You do not have to be a member to have access to the single

market and that is the big Lie constantly being put forward. Q1 to

explain what the rules are? I can explain what the rules are? I can

explain them. Do you want to put explain them. Do you want to put

tariff barriers on... The average is 3.5%. 3-point fibres of more than

they have to do at the moment. So long as we stay in the single

market, the 85% of the British economy that doesn't trade with the

EU is subject to the full burden and wait... All of the businesses I have

spoken so, the university, the hospitals, the aerospace industry,

do not shout over me, the financial services, they have all said they

need to be in the European single market. You need to get out more,

with respect. It is a good thing you added that. It is that macro if I

dare say it, Ukip's turmoil at the top is taking its toll. In Swindon,

several senior officers have quit and the former chairman has claimed

the party is going nowhere. With a new leader due to be announced on

Monday, what next for the party that was once team Farage?

The rise and rise and rise of Ukip in the west, from European elections

to council contests, taking votes from the blues and, especially

recently, the Reds. Politically, Swindon is always a tight fight

between Labour and Conservative but Ukip have made quite an impact in

recent years. At last year's General Election, they came third in the

town. The town's membership swelled and help to deliver a strong vote

for leaving the referendum but since then, things have gone badly

backwards. The Ukiah Independence party... He stood for Parliament

last year as well as in Council and Police and Crime Commissioner

elections and was Swindon chairman, but John Short has now quit. I left

because I was totally dissatisfied with what was happening with the

party, with all of the infighting and the way in which it was going.

It was not going anywhere, nationally, or even centrally, and

all of the infighting and the way in which they were destroying the

party, I thought, I don't want to be part of this. In just five months,

Ukip has had two leadership contest, top contenders quitting the party

and scuffles in Strasbourg. It is sad, it has lost its way, they need

to sit down and get it sorted out. It shows you it is chaos, that

somebody should sit down, a group should sit down and really resolve

it. So no more campaigning for him or dozens of others Swindon members

who have also left the party. Numbers are down across the west

Country and in Filton and Bradley Stoke, the chairman is staying loyal

but feels let down. To have the sort of business going on at the top is

frustrating and all we want to do is get on and do the work of the party

and essentially what they want to do and what they want to achieve and we

have kind of been hindered in that way, it has been a massive

frustration. One minute, you think you have got a leader and the next

minute you haven't, and the next minute, they are having a punch-up

in the European Parliament. All of that is nonsense and we need to

concentrate on the job in hand, get our own club in order and move

forward again. He was greeted with fanfare in 2012 when, as a

Conservative councillor, he defected to Ukip. The party was entering a

purple patch. It culminated in the referendum of 2016, a turning point

for Britain and possibly for Ukip. William, is this the beginning of

the M4 Ukip? As Figaro absolutely not before I say anything else, I do

want to apologise to our supporters for the disorganisation of the last

three months. The fact of the matter is there is a leadership election

going on now, there will be a new leader on Monday and we will all get

behind the leader. You haven't done that before. It is going to happen

now. There are many MPs, many of the political establishment, Tony Blair,

Peter Mandelson and the rest, who are trying to unpick the referendum

result. In terms of Parliamentary constituencies, over 400

constituencies actually voted to leave and it is important that it is

carried through. I will predict that those characters will have a fight

about them, as your members do. You have fisticuffs, don't you? I have

already apologised for that but I would say that all parties have

divisions. The Parliamentary Labour Party has the no-confidence vote in

its leader. The Conservative Party is heavily split on Brexit and the

terms and the Liberal Democrats, their chief concern seems to be to

overturn the referendum result. We have all have some problems but from

Monday onwards, it is a new chapter. It will be interesting to discover

whether having a new leader allows you to come up with a plan for

Brexit, because so far what you have done in Ukip is campaign the

something which is a bit like going out for a walk without any clue

where you are going. When the country voted, it didn't know what

it was voting for. You told people on the sides of lorries there would

be 350 million is a week... That was our campaign, we were excluded. It

was the Mark Rowley campaign, where people voted on information that

wasn't accurate. This is one we will never be able to reverse -- the

Lives campaign. John Major and Tony Blair are now saying it could be

reasonable to have a second referendum or at least a vote on

what negotiations are, would you support that? What I would support

is as having a clue from the Government as to what the plan is.

The single market, the customs union, completely ad? What are they

going to do about the trading rules between the country? We don't have a

single clue. I think other leaders have been quite right to weigh in

and say we need to talk about this. It should be scrutinised properly

because we will never be able to reverse this. There is and I am

determination to unpick the referendum result and at the risk of

being repetitive, the big advantage of staying in the single market is

that less than 15% of the British market is accounted for -- the

disadvantage. I wish the point had been made. We could be like

Beauvais, we heard a million times, and Norway is in the single market

-- like Norway. No one who knows anything about it has seriously put

forward the Norway option. There are various different ways of managing

it and I come back to a point I made earlier on, the three biggest

exporters to the European Union, Russia, China and the United States,

have access to the single market and do not have trade agreements. And

they have do pay for it, that's the point. You know full well they do.

We are paying up already more in... I must just make this point we are

already paying more... In payments to the EU... Let me ask you this,

you are supporting Mr Nuttall for the leadership of Ukip, is that

right? I have put out a statement to that effect. What is interesting,

Thangam Debbonaire, Ukip did get an enormous victory with the

referendum, Mr Trump has won in the United States, why are people going

to -- why aren't people going to parties like yours when they are

disaffected? That is a good question. We need another General

Election until we can get a decent answer to that question. People are

asking all sorts of really interesting questions. They want to

know what public services... They are saying Labour isn't the answer.

It is varying, we have won various council elections, we won the

control of the Council and a mayor, control of the Council and a mayor,

so in Bristol, people have voting Labour. OK, we will leave it there.

Thank you. Now, it is costing two Thank you. Now, it is costing two

thirds the price of a nuclear power station that has had none of the

attention. The Government's roll-out of smart meters to every home in

Britain as sale by almost unnoticed but like kinky, it is another

example of a flagship energy scheme buffeted by technical problems and

delays. On this quiet Bristol Street,

digital revolution is about to take place. I have come to install your

gas and electricity meters for you today. This is a scene the

Government wants repeated on every doorstep. Energy suppliers offering

customers a smart meter. I wanted to be more aware of my costings, I am a

single mum, I have three girls and lots of appliances, just to see

where my money is going each month. After an hour's work in the garage,

the new meter is installed. It will transmit how much gas and

electricity she uses back to the supplier every half an hour. It

means accurate bills and an end to meter readings. Mum of three Kelly

now has new instructions for her daughters. Lights off, charges

unplugged in the evening, mummy is watching the smart meter. Just

having this new gadget in the home is close to gently remind you to use

less. Studies show consumption of gas and electricity can drop by

average of ?33 per year, but all of average of ?33 per year, but all of

that could be wiped out in the short term if the cost of installing them

is passed on from suppliers through bills. Currently, most of our homes

electricity meters... It was a electricity meters... It was a

Conservative manifesto pledge that everyone should be offered a smart

meter by 2020. Only 7% of homes have one now. Sam Smith another broken

promise. So we ask the advice of two suppliers from Bristol. There still

remains challenges in rolling out smart meters to every home, some

technology barrows that we need to as an industry overcome. It is

possible but exceptionally challenging. The programme was

initially delayed at the national level. You are using business big

for it is not possible. It is very challenging but it is a mighty

target. Experts at GCHQ Cheltenham have been called in to ensure that

smart meters are safe from hackers and cyber security isn't the only

concern. I like to think of it as the biggest infrastructure project

is two thirds the size of Hinkley is two thirds the size of Hinkley

point, so an initial capital cost of some ?11 billion but some people may

think it will grow to 14 billions. It is not the cost of the programme,

it is the complexity. Whether or not you by the Government argument over

smart meters, the truth is it is the start of something much bigger.

Washing machines that turn themselves on when they are full,

fridge freezers that order your shopping. This is what they call the

Internet of things and all of our homes are set to become much

smarter. To take a sneak glimpse into the future, I was invited

inside Bristol's data Dome. Here, they lay out the possibilities

of what all this data from our new gadgetry really means. For

politicians, there is now a raft of new ways of knowing what it

selectors are up to as they try to plan for the future.

Smart meters are just another example of connecting more and more

things around us up to the Internet. For example, your feet bit on your

hand is a thing that takes data, your car is sending data to the

Internet, your house can send energy data or other data and there are

loads of examples, both from medicine and transport and energy,

and this isn't a bad thing, but how we manage all this data is a big

question for us. So one small step for a homeowner, one giant leap for

the energy industry and, who knows where we might end up?

It is all very well but what about an iron that can iron your shirts?

Are you two going to get one? I am going to get one, I have not been

offered one. I think it is gigantically expensive. As the man

on the film said, estimated at 11 billion, it is much more likely to

be 15 billion and there is a credible estimate published in the

Daily Telegraph saying the most it is going to save is maybe ?11 per

year. That is per household. And I think there are very, very serious

questions about whether this is the right thing we should be doing with

that amount of money. There are lots of other infrastructure problems in

the country. I agree there are a lot of infrastructure problems if we are

going to compete on the global market to sort out but I think smart

meters, it is a good idea to give people information about how they

can use electricity and other fuels more efficiently but this project is

a good example of the Government going wrong. Three years, it is

overdue by three years. We haven't of the costs are going about the

benefits are going down so we have been called for an urgent pause and

review so we can see if the project needs more tweaking, if it is worth

continuing with and we need to work out what is the best way to help

people to be more energy-efficient and at the moment, this isn't

working. They have offered me one and coming in a couple of weeks to

fit it. It is a 90 minute appointment, so you can imagine what

that is going to be across the country if every single person gets

this. But I shall be looking and saying, that has got go off. Big

projects were big investments and we have a huge problem on our hands,

climate change, one of the clear and present dangers we are not facing up

to enough in this country. Donald Trump doesn't think that, what about

Ukip, climate change? We are very sceptical about climate change and

we have to be very, very careful with climate change in that it is

not just used as an argument to push through a lot of unnecessary, job

destroying, wealth destroying regulations and that very much seems

to be... Using energy efficiently is a good idea. Climate change is a

clear and present danger. Being a denier is very last century. No one

has ever been accusing me of being 21st century before. We are all in

favour of energy efficiency and ensure elation... Insulation is one

way of using energy. It is free to the consumer at the point of

delivery, if you like, but we all have to pay for it, a couple of

hundred pounds on our bills a year, two thirds the cost of Hinkley, you

must have some doubts? That is why I have a problem at the moment, the

Government's own report, which they sneaked out during Trump week hoping

nobody would notice, it's spotted just that, the cost benefit ratio

isn't working. There is a lot of work to do, we cannot carry on as we

are with the current role of the programme, the smart meters will not

work with the new technology. I will turn the lights out on that

particular discussion. Time for a canter through the west's political

week in 60 seconds. On Tuesday, the west's MPs let off

steam at a debate about trains. It was called by Charlotte Leslie, who

was concerned about the electrification of the great Western

mainline being delayed. This is about the south-west being sick of

being the poor relation in our nation's transport projects while

other high-speed projects go roaring on.

The leader of Somerset County Council labelled the Chancellor's

Autumn Statement and missed opportunity. He had wanted extra

funds for social care. Things will start to fall down, hopefully not in

Somerset, but in other areas of the country, services are really

struggling. But the Chancellor did grant the Wellington Monument in

Somerset million pounds for restoration work. Wheelchair

Ramblers will also receive a million, the money coming from

banking fines. -- Wiltshire air. And many to keep the seagull population

under control. The birds' aggressive behaviour has been upsetting local

residents. They take your fish and chips.

Thangam Debbonaire, you are in that debate about electrification, what

do you think of the delay? Well, I am furious, actually. They are all

sorts of myths being put about about the postponement, postponing it for

many years. We don't know when it will come back and it is a missed

opportunity but it is typical of this Government, which this week has

failed to deal with the clear and present danger we are in with

Brexit, the ?122 billion black hole in our finances and where is ara

electrification, it is a small part of it. It is all money, I suppose.

William, Europe is electrified. We should cancel high-speed rail link

two, in which billions have been spent already and nothing to show

for it and electrified line all the way to Penzance. That is what would

be in the interest of the south-west and the country as a whole. It is

down to money, though. John McDonnell wants to spend 500 billion

on investment. What he wants a slightly more complicated than that.

To conjugated to go into right now but the most important thing is we

need to sort out investment and skills in the 21st century. And that

is we have time for. My thanks to my we will see you again at the same

time next week, have got to make sure London is

open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you.

Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay?

Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader?

And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond?

So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get

compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders

real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is

pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in

2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party

probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and

2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is

very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that

unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just

about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast

wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things

will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has

already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to

go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed

to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board

if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have

workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have

no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over

the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and

that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the

end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the

possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with

Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the

banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time

to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of

an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly

cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition

within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing

this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne

commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar

proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to

enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again

in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by

what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely

bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious.

Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of

her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I

think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time

for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether

we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing

quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can

control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a

hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the

company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives?

Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business

leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down

to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether

there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never

happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is

a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is

not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to

determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral

argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers

will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies

are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are

thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive

investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making

these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated

by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue

of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip.

I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three

candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid

Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is

widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the

Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective

communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will

begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a

strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic

period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of

working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do

you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win.

His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is

going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip

won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these

discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is

associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip

and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it

is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the

favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result

Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened

of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason

I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been

something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness.

That calls into question whether it can function as a political party

when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an

act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They

have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should

take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can

turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and

then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first.

Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac

Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about

Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib

Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems

win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly

close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists

there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the

place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage

to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will

probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I

hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency,

but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney,

when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their

aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously

optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I

don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are

acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it

would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else.

Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we

are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are

covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the

time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in

declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on

breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove

was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious

comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians

often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense.

Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there

is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who

have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the

recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave,

has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about.

The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn

Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget

Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But

what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget

that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball

territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much

of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to

be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to

be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you

say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the

moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit,

even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing

such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could

come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said,

Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to

give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically

said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the

back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what

does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own

government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond

quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks

bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said.

He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a

disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are

covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution.

Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

to signify the Africans who were here.

The story of Henry VIII and his six wives

and into the private lives of Henry's six wives.

My heart is filled with sorrow. I am not a fool.

Something is happening to crime fiction.

It's getting darker, bloodier, more real

and now more likely to be written by women.

That's my job, really - killing people for fun and profit.

Well, to the east of England, actually, to Peterborough,