18/12/2016 Sunday Politics West


18/12/2016

Andrew discusses Brexit with former Conservative health secretary Stephen Dorrell and Australian high commissioner Alexander Downer, and looks at the issue of air pollution.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:41.:00:42.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:43.:00:44.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:45.:00:48.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:49.:00:51.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:52.:00:55.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:56.:00:58.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:00:59.:01:04.

In the West, teams and their how bad for our health,

:01:05.:01:15.

In the West, teams and their screens. The Cheltenham MP says

:01:16.:01:16.

young people are getting stressed young people are getting stressed

:01:17.:01:26.

And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer

:01:27.:01:30.

and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,

:01:31.:01:33.

They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.

:01:34.:01:41.

First this morning, some say they will fight

:01:42.:01:47.

for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those

:01:48.:01:51.

who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British

:01:52.:01:54.

people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -

:01:55.:01:57.

The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have

:01:58.:02:00.

tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.

:02:01.:02:02.

The original resolution called on the European Parliament

:02:03.:02:05.

to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens

:02:06.:02:08.

of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".

:02:09.:02:23.

He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish

:02:24.:02:29.

must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%

:02:30.:02:32.

The amendments were proposed in October,

:02:33.:02:44.

but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels

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Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.

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The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.

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Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed

:02:52.:02:54.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try

:02:55.:03:03.

and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was

:03:04.:03:09.

simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months

:03:10.:03:12.

ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different

:03:13.:03:18.

newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort

:03:19.:03:24.

to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to

:03:25.:03:29.

rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You

:03:30.:03:35.

would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?

:03:36.:03:40.

I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory

:03:41.:03:45.

referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a

:03:46.:03:51.

questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,

:03:52.:03:54.

it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking

:03:55.:03:58.

the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a

:03:59.:04:03.

very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who

:04:04.:04:07.

said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save

:04:08.:04:11.

money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and

:04:12.:04:14.

our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But

:04:15.:04:31.

your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is

:04:32.:04:34.

to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would

:04:35.:04:36.

respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to

:04:37.:04:39.

be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain

:04:40.:04:42.

money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government

:04:43.:04:46.

said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need

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to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the

:04:52.:04:58.

single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options

:04:59.:05:01.

should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will

:05:02.:05:08.

be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more

:05:09.:05:12.

illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a

:05:13.:05:20.

report about future treaty amendments down the road for years

:05:21.:05:26.

to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side

:05:27.:05:34.

reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will

:05:35.:05:39.

you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the

:05:40.:05:47.

text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if

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the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you

:05:55.:05:58.

mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,

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was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of

:06:06.:06:09.

the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European

:06:10.:06:17.

Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of

:06:18.:06:21.

action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and

:06:22.:06:25.

disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to

:06:26.:06:30.

think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you

:06:31.:06:34.

might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be

:06:35.:06:40.

clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European

:06:41.:06:44.

Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am

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acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating

:06:52.:06:56.

things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out

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to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are

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going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the

:07:05.:07:10.

shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,

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in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is

:07:16.:07:19.

implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about

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whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because

:07:27.:07:33.

that has to take account of the future framework of relationships

:07:34.:07:38.

with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That

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means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be

:07:42.:07:45.

outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very

:07:46.:07:49.

damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the

:07:50.:07:54.

rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the

:07:55.:07:58.

customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give

:07:59.:08:02.

us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is

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not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the

:08:07.:08:10.

results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see

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that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the

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divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget

:08:18.:08:22.

for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single

:08:23.:08:26.

market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will

:08:27.:08:32.

know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be

:08:33.:08:35.

damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a

:08:36.:08:41.

minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider

:08:42.:08:45.

the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to

:08:46.:08:49.

leave it there but thank you for joining us.

:08:50.:08:55.

Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what

:08:56.:09:01.

happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview

:09:02.:09:06.

illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach

:09:07.:09:10.

taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one

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breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action

:09:18.:09:19.

subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are

:09:20.:09:23.

sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to

:09:24.:09:28.

happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists

:09:29.:09:33.

on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public

:09:34.:09:38.

opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together

:09:39.:09:45.

to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take

:09:46.:09:52.

moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every

:09:53.:09:56.

single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether

:09:57.:10:06.

it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not

:10:07.:10:10.

think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in

:10:11.:10:16.

the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to

:10:17.:10:20.

question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these

:10:21.:10:24.

things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he

:10:25.:10:28.

wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you

:10:29.:10:32.

can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But

:10:33.:10:38.

the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad

:10:39.:10:42.

deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is

:10:43.:10:49.

implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we

:10:50.:10:53.

are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a

:10:54.:10:57.

minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going

:10:58.:11:02.

to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,

:11:03.:11:07.

six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

:11:08.:11:11.

Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

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or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

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2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

:11:21.:11:27.

May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

:11:59.:12:03.

long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:04.:12:07.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

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setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

:12:18.:12:23.

all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

:12:24.:12:26.

is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

:12:27.:12:31.

customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

:12:32.:12:39.

cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

:12:40.:12:43.

member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

:12:44.:12:47.

make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

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union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

:12:52.:12:55.

binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

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suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

:13:00.:13:04.

do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

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is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

:13:09.:13:14.

opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

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Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

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PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

:13:27.:13:29.

Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:30.:13:36.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:37.:13:43.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

:13:44.:13:48.

proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:49.:13:53.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:54.:14:01.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

:14:02.:14:04.

but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

:14:05.:14:08.

deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

:14:09.:14:12.

for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

:14:13.:14:17.

Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:18.:14:21.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:22.:14:27.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:28.:14:35.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:36.:14:39.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

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we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

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but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

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at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

:14:52.:14:55.

happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

:14:56.:15:02.

think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

:15:03.:15:07.

becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

:15:08.:15:14.

are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

:15:15.:15:15.

country. So, we've had a warning this week

:15:16.:15:19.

that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:20.:15:23.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:24.:15:25.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:26.:15:27.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:28.:15:29.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:30.:15:32.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

:15:33.:15:35.

for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

:15:36.:15:51.

Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:52.:15:53.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:54.:15:55.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:56.:16:04.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

:16:05.:16:05.

but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

:16:06.:16:08.

we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:09.:16:14.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

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the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

:16:19.:16:22.

Australia approached the British Government

:16:23.:16:28.

with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

:16:29.:16:31.

to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

:16:32.:16:34.

governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

:16:35.:16:40.

ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:41.:16:43.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:44.:16:55.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:56.:17:00.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:01.:17:06.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:07.:17:12.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:13.:17:15.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:16.:17:22.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:23.:17:35.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:36.:17:39.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:40.:17:45.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:46.:17:48.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:49.:17:53.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:54.:17:58.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:17:59.:18:01.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:02.:18:05.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:06.:18:19.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:20.:18:21.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:22.:18:24.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:25.:18:26.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:27.:18:28.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:29.:18:40.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:41.:18:43.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:44.:18:54.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:55.:19:23.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:24.:19:27.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:28.:19:33.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:34.:19:38.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:39.:19:43.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:44.:19:48.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:49.:19:54.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:55.:19:59.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:00.:20:03.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:04.:20:06.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:07.:20:12.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:13.:20:18.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:19.:20:22.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:23.:20:29.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:30.:20:34.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:35.:20:38.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:39.:20:44.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:45.:20:48.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:49.:20:53.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:54.:20:58.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:20:59.:21:04.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:05.:21:08.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:09.:21:13.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:14.:21:18.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:19.:21:24.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:25.:21:27.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:28.:21:32.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:33.:21:36.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:37.:21:42.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:43.:21:44.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:45.:21:50.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:51.:21:56.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:57.:22:01.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:02.:22:05.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:06.:22:09.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:10.:22:15.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:16.:22:19.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:20.:22:24.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:25.:22:29.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:30.:22:32.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:33.:22:37.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:38.:22:42.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:43.:22:47.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:48.:22:53.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:54.:22:58.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:22:59.:23:03.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:04.:23:06.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:07.:23:12.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:13.:23:15.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:16.:23:23.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:24.:23:26.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:27.:23:30.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:31.:23:36.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:37.:23:41.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:42.:23:44.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:45.:23:51.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:52.:23:56.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:57.:24:00.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:01.:24:09.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:10.:24:12.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:13.:24:19.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:20.:24:23.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:24.:24:28.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:29.:24:33.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:34.:24:37.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:38.:24:44.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:45.:24:48.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:49.:24:54.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:55.:24:58.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:24:59.:25:03.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:04.:25:08.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:09.:25:11.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:12.:25:18.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:19.:25:22.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:23.:25:26.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:27.:25:31.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:32.:25:34.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:35.:25:36.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:37.:25:38.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:39.:25:41.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:42.:25:43.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:44.:25:57.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:25:58.:26:03.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:04.:26:09.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:10.:26:12.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:13.:26:16.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:17.:26:23.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:24.:26:27.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:28.:26:30.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:31.:26:32.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:33.:26:37.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:38.:26:40.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:41.:26:42.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:43.:26:47.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:48.:26:52.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:53.:26:56.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:57.:27:00.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:01.:27:03.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:04.:27:05.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:06.:27:07.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:08.:27:13.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:14.:27:19.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:20.:27:24.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:25.:27:29.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:30.:27:36.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:37.:27:41.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:42.:27:49.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:50.:27:53.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:54.:27:58.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:27:59.:28:01.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:02.:28:05.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:06.:28:09.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:10.:28:15.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:16.:28:20.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:21.:28:25.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:26.:28:29.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:30.:28:32.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:33.:28:38.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:39.:28:41.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:42.:28:46.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:47.:28:51.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:52.:28:59.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:00.:29:01.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:02.:29:05.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:06.:29:09.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:10.:29:14.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:15.:29:16.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:17.:29:22.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:23.:29:24.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:25.:29:27.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:28.:29:33.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:34.:29:35.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:36.:29:38.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:39.:29:40.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:41.:29:45.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:46.:29:48.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:49.:29:50.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:51.:29:54.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:55.:29:59.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:00.:30:01.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:02.:30:04.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:05.:30:08.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:09.:30:18.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:19.:30:37.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:38.:30:41.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:42.:30:51.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:52.:30:56.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:57.:31:00.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:01.:31:05.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:06.:31:09.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:10.:31:13.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:14.:31:23.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:24.:31:29.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:30.:31:34.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:35.:31:39.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:40.:31:46.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:47.:31:53.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:54.:32:02.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:03.:32:08.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:09.:32:12.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:13.:32:21.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:22.:32:26.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:27.:32:30.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:31.:32:35.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:36.:32:38.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:39.:32:42.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:43.:32:48.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:49.:32:51.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:52.:32:55.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:56.:33:01.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:02.:33:05.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:06.:33:11.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:12.:33:15.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:16.:33:19.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:20.:33:24.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:25.:33:29.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:30.:33:36.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:37.:33:45.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:46.:33:50.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:51.:33:55.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:56.:33:59.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:00.:34:03.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:04.:34:06.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:07.:34:10.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:11.:34:18.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:19.:34:24.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:25.:34:30.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:31.:34:35.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:36.:34:41.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:42.:34:51.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:52.:34:54.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:55.:34:58.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:34:59.:35:02.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:03.:35:08.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:09.:35:18.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:19.:35:21.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:22.:35:23.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:24.:35:32.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:33.:35:41.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:42.:35:48.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:49.:35:58.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:35:59.:36:03.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:04.:36:07.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:08.:36:12.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:13.:36:16.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:17.:36:21.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:22.:36:26.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:27.:36:33.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:34.:36:39.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:40.:36:44.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:45.:36:48.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:49.:36:56.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:57.:36:58.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:36:59.:37:02.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:03.:37:08.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:09.:37:14.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:15.:37:18.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:19.:37:22.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:23.:37:26.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:27.:37:30.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:31.:37:35.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:36.:37:39.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:40.:37:42.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:43.:37:48.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:49.:37:51.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:52.:37:56.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:57.:38:00.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:01.:38:06.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:07.:38:11.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:12.:38:15.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:16.:38:20.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:21.:38:25.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:26.:38:30.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:31.:38:35.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:36.:38:39.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:40.:38:44.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:45.:38:48.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:49.:38:54.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:55.:38:58.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:38:59.:39:00.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:01.:39:02.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:03.:39:17.

Hello. Welcome to the Sunday politics. It is our last before

:39:18.:39:27.

Christmas. You might well be unwrapping a new tablet or phone on

:39:28.:39:30.

the 25th but are they causing more harm than good with teenagers

:39:31.:39:34.

staying up into the small hours to check their texts and tweets? My

:39:35.:39:44.

guests have promised to avoid checking their phones for the next

:39:45.:39:53.

half an hour or so. Welcome to you both. Let's start with the news that

:39:54.:39:57.

many schools in the West are set to get a funding boost. It follows a

:39:58.:40:07.

campaign. You are the vice-chair of the campaign group that wanted this.

:40:08.:40:10.

You got your own way but was it actually worth it in the end? I

:40:11.:40:15.

think the government is absolutely right to have grappled with this.

:40:16.:40:19.

This has been going on for 20 years and it is right that we should have

:40:20.:40:23.

funding based on need not on postcode but the formula that has

:40:24.:40:27.

come out is only one formula. We argued for a different formula. We

:40:28.:40:32.

have to immerse ourselves in the detail. The detail is is that you

:40:33.:40:37.

have got an increase of 0.6%. That pretty underwhelming. We have now

:40:38.:40:46.

got to sit down and work out precisely... We have to work out

:40:47.:40:50.

with the 40 local authorities that came together to look at the

:40:51.:40:55.

methodology that is being used because initial impressions are to

:40:56.:40:58.

is not the methodology that we wanted. So it has been a waste of

:40:59.:41:03.

time? No, not at all. You have got to look at it across the piece in

:41:04.:41:07.

terms of what has happened. The situation where you had places in

:41:08.:41:12.

London getting 6500 per head and places in Somerset getting 4000 is

:41:13.:41:18.

plainly unjustified. But how you make it fairer is what we have to

:41:19.:41:23.

look at. Somerset has done quite well out of this but it is a long

:41:24.:41:31.

time coming. 4.7%, which is good. But there are underlying cuts that

:41:32.:41:34.

the government is making to the overall schools budget as well

:41:35.:41:41.

forges a problem. We should focus on what is needed and making sure that

:41:42.:41:47.

schools get the surety that they need. It is a frequent sound in your

:41:48.:41:56.

house? The constant beeping of our phones and tablets question market

:41:57.:42:01.

is becoming a concern for Alex. He is worried about the effect that

:42:02.:42:04.

social media is having on today's youth. We will find out why in a

:42:05.:42:13.

moment but first this report. They are the first thing we pick up

:42:14.:42:16.

in the morning, the last thing we put down at night. We have become a

:42:17.:42:21.

nation of digital addicts, glued to our devices, keeping up to speed

:42:22.:42:32.

sultans of swiping or of course the sultans of swiping or of course the

:42:33.:42:36.

millennial 's. Using social media to stay in touch and have fun. Though

:42:37.:42:40.

even they underestimate how much they are on their phones. How many

:42:41.:42:44.

times a day do you check your phone? 30 times. About 50. 40 roughly. A

:42:45.:42:53.

recent study suggests we actually check our phones an average of 85

:42:54.:42:57.

times a day. Those we met up this chart school now use a giddying

:42:58.:43:01.

array of apps to stay in touch. It array of apps to stay in touch. It

:43:02.:43:11.

is like really when I get home until about two hours before I go to

:43:12.:43:16.

sleep. I would check my various social media is at least once every

:43:17.:43:24.

hour or so. And then I might maybe wake up during the night and if I am

:43:25.:43:31.

awake, I might think, I may as well awake, I might think, I may as well

:43:32.:43:37.

have a little scroll through. And she's not alone. New research shows

:43:38.:43:41.

that almost half of all secondary aged children do this, checking

:43:42.:43:45.

their phones after going to bed. It is being claimed one in ten look at

:43:46.:43:48.

their screens more than ten times a night. It is an addiction really. I

:43:49.:43:55.

know not just young people that adults that are falling into that

:43:56.:44:00.

habit of sort of a deep anxiety when they don't have their phone with

:44:01.:44:04.

them. They are constantly checking to see if they have had messages,

:44:05.:44:14.

likes, any posts that they may have posted. They are looking for

:44:15.:44:20.

validation and acceptance. And that becomes addictive. This virtual

:44:21.:44:25.

world has prompted a raft of vocabulary to explain some of the

:44:26.:44:26.

unwelcome side-effects. In a school environment, have you

:44:27.:44:47.

seen friends of yours, contemporaries of yours, being

:44:48.:44:52.

picked on on social media? Yes, I know a lot of people who have gone

:44:53.:44:57.

through a dark time. The chop MP has taken the issue to Parliament. He

:44:58.:45:01.

wants an enquiry in the New Year. Social media companies ought to be

:45:02.:45:06.

policing their code of conduct more effectively. They need to look at

:45:07.:45:13.

potentially a yellow card suspension and a red card. If it is just for a

:45:14.:45:18.

short period, it sends a message, these are the rules, abide by them.

:45:19.:45:19.

Facebook told us... Those who work in social media work

:45:20.:45:41.

Keynesian position be on education rather than a yellow or red card

:45:42.:45:48.

system. My first reaction is it seems quite naive that there is

:45:49.:45:51.

already pretty much a yellow and a red card system and most of those

:45:52.:45:57.

networks. You can block a post, or you can block a user. This stuff

:45:58.:46:03.

exists. We just need to educate people on the fact it is there. For

:46:04.:46:07.

teenagers who love their phones, they just want to be teenagers. Are

:46:08.:46:14.

these meaningful conversations? No, random. You just talk about random

:46:15.:46:28.

things, you don't know why. But while our devices can cope with any

:46:29.:46:32.

number of swipes, likes and online gripes, are we mere humans able to

:46:33.:46:36.

handle this new torrent of information in the digital age?

:46:37.:46:41.

Very interesting. This is your campaign. It is almost as if we knew

:46:42.:46:45.

you were coming on the programme. I don't quite get what you want

:46:46.:46:50.

because as the man said in the film, there are already blocking

:46:51.:46:53.

mechanisms. What would the difference be? I was a bit

:46:54.:47:00.

disappointed by that. Social media companies are abdicating

:47:01.:47:04.

responsibility for something that is clearly happening online to a far

:47:05.:47:08.

greater extent than they are prepared to accept. Of course it is

:47:09.:47:12.

possible you can delete a post and block a user but the question is,

:47:13.:47:16.

that relies on the individual to take what can be quite a serious

:47:17.:47:18.

step. What I would like to see them step. What I would like to see them

:47:19.:47:25.

doing is where they detect that people are bullying people,

:47:26.:47:29.

harassing people, they have got to intervene far more robustly than

:47:30.:47:35.

they are at the moment. The fact is, children are saying the occasions

:47:36.:47:38.

when people are suspended from the networks are vanishingly rare. It is

:47:39.:47:48.

very difficult to actually legislate and create rules for something... Do

:47:49.:47:52.

you treat somebody who has had a bit of a life... A public life in a

:47:53.:47:57.

different way from somebody who has not? Do you treat an 18-year-old

:47:58.:48:04.

differently to a 16-year-old Mark is very difficult. Facebook 's point is

:48:05.:48:08.

a good one but nonetheless I accept there is a problem. But it affects

:48:09.:48:15.

all ages, not just children and when all ages, not just children and when

:48:16.:48:21.

it comes to teenagers it is the job of the parent to keep an eye.

:48:22.:48:26.

Parents have a role to play but a lot of them are not digital natives

:48:27.:48:34.

and what we are seniors young people developing mental health problems on

:48:35.:48:40.

a scale we have not seen before. We have to look at prevention as well

:48:41.:48:46.

as cure. The Office for National Statistics say there is a

:48:47.:48:50.

correlation between time spent on social media and adverse mental

:48:51.:48:53.

health. We have to grapple with this. We cannot simply ignore it. He

:48:54.:49:00.

laughed to build resilience in your children and your children's friends

:49:01.:49:03.

because every parent knows other young people... Bullying was in the

:49:04.:49:13.

playground before it was on the phone. It is everywhere. But

:49:14.:49:17.

bullying used to stop at the playground gates. I don't think it

:49:18.:49:24.

did. But now, the bullies are in the bedroom. Facebook is a private

:49:25.:49:29.

company, it has been very successful. A billion people use it.

:49:30.:49:33.

It is impossible to expect them to police it in a thorough way, just as

:49:34.:49:39.

it would be impossible to ask BT to stop people saying rude things on

:49:40.:49:44.

the telephone. Well, it is a slightly different point. They are

:49:45.:49:48.

making a huge amount of money out of the people who are using it. I do

:49:49.:49:52.

not think it is beyond the realms of common sense that in the same way

:49:53.:49:55.

you say to a head teacher, if there is bullying going on in your school,

:49:56.:49:59.

you have a responsibility for it. If there is bullying taking place on

:50:00.:50:04.

their digital premises, they cannot wash their hands of it. It is much

:50:05.:50:09.

more important than when children or young people find themselves in

:50:10.:50:12.

difficulty they know where to go, what to do about it. But also we

:50:13.:50:19.

need to make up to be certain that there is mental health support out

:50:20.:50:22.

there for young people when they need help because actually look at

:50:23.:50:24.

the mental health services in my the mental health services in my

:50:25.:50:27.

area, you can wait six months for an appointment. My son came to me and

:50:28.:50:37.

said, one year. One year without Facebook. I hadn't even noticed

:50:38.:50:44.

are moderate users. The teenagers we are moderate users. The teenagers we

:50:45.:50:49.

saw there had a great deal of fun saw there had a great deal of fun

:50:50.:50:52.

with it and it is a great way of keeping in touch. In the good old

:50:53.:50:56.

days, you had a talk to your friend and you had to be on the phone with

:50:57.:51:02.

your dad going like this... Because of the phone bill. Now things have

:51:03.:51:07.

changed and move on and the kids are adept at dealing with it. Of course

:51:08.:51:12.

they are. Absolutely right. But we're also seeing this rising mental

:51:13.:51:17.

health problems and an association with social media. We could sweep it

:51:18.:51:21.

under the carpet and say bullying has always been with us or we can

:51:22.:51:26.

get to grips with it. Scientific studies are increasingly saying this

:51:27.:51:28.

is a problem and we'll all have to play our part. Income tax, Facebook

:51:29.:51:39.

have moved on the income tax issue. They have now agreed to pay tax on

:51:40.:51:47.

earnings. That is what we want. How was 2016 for you? Did anything much

:51:48.:51:52.

happened? To quote President-elect Trump, the world changed bigly.

:51:53.:52:00.

There was Brexit and the fall of a Prime Minister and leadership

:52:01.:52:07.

contest that the leadership contest. 2016 began with a bang. The

:52:08.:52:08.

political fireworks never stopped. It has been absolutely fascinating.

:52:09.:52:28.

To be in this place behind me, understanding how things evolve has

:52:29.:52:35.

been fascinating. It has been like the fifth day of the Lord's Ashes

:52:36.:52:40.

Test and England needing to win with only two wickets left. He went out

:52:41.:52:46.

to bat for Brexit and was one of the stars of the winning team. For the

:52:47.:52:49.

losing side, it feels rather different. Can you think of any

:52:50.:52:54.

highlights from 2016? Getting to the end of it in one piece. I'm not sure

:52:55.:52:59.

there were many highlights of 2016. The highlight was getting selected,

:53:00.:53:11.

Marvin as Maher of Bristol. But it was overshadowed by the referendum.

:53:12.:53:19.

It has caused some soul-searching. I think that this connection is very

:53:20.:53:24.

apparent in city like a bar. They have not had a voice for a very long

:53:25.:53:29.

period of time. And they think that politicians take them for granted.

:53:30.:53:33.

Politicians say one thing and do another thing. So, David Cameron

:53:34.:53:39.

went, sparking a leadership contest. Theresa May always looked a good

:53:40.:53:45.

bet, though not all Tory MPs. She is my new heroine. I think she's

:53:46.:53:51.

fantastic. I got the Conservative leadership hopelessly wrong. I

:53:52.:53:53.

thought it was essential that we have a lever to ensure that we left

:53:54.:53:58.

the European Union properly. I think that was a mistake. I think that

:53:59.:54:02.

having a remainder has been very powerful. While the Conservatives

:54:03.:54:08.

started to heal their wounds, Labour's civil war lasted much

:54:09.:54:11.

longer with critics of their leader still sharpening their knives. If

:54:12.:54:14.

the polls don't pick up then I think the polls don't pick up then I think

:54:15.:54:18.

people have said that we need to look at the situation again in 12

:54:19.:54:24.

months' time. Another leadership challenge? I am not calling for that

:54:25.:54:28.

at the moment. I think that any leader would want to take the party

:54:29.:54:32.

to a general election victory and ought to reflect on whether they are

:54:33.:54:35.

voted not just bring this a new voted not just bring this a new

:54:36.:54:41.

primaries do, it also meant a reshuffle in July. Out went several

:54:42.:54:48.

West MPs. One or two apparently their own accord whilst others were

:54:49.:54:51.

too closely linked to David Cameron. In came others with a top job for

:54:52.:54:57.

one return from the backbenches. Liam Fox became Secretary of State

:54:58.:55:00.

for International trade. He is a strong admirer of America and will

:55:01.:55:04.

want to do deals with the winner from the latest electoral shock. I

:55:05.:55:11.

think most American presidents are needed as bad as feared, nor as good

:55:12.:55:16.

as expected. Barack Obama came in with huge expectations and has

:55:17.:55:20.

turned out to be a wet flannel. Donald Trump, people are nervous

:55:21.:55:23.

political floss of years but I political floss of years but I

:55:24.:55:27.

suspect it will not be as bad as people are saying. 2016 proved

:55:28.:55:34.

unpredictable. What 2017 will bring his -- knowing what 2017 will bring

:55:35.:55:39.

is pretty impossible. That was the year that was. We are

:55:40.:55:44.

joined by the Chief Executive of the campaign group leave .edu. We all

:55:45.:55:54.

know you one. But we were given the impression it was going to be

:55:55.:55:58.

straightforward. At season. I think it is just such an unknown process,

:55:59.:56:06.

there is no prescribed mechanism for to do to think it feels like

:56:07.:56:09.

everyone is bumping along and what we need to do is make some quick

:56:10.:56:13.

decisions and actually lazy way of how we come out of the European

:56:14.:56:18.

Union. Theresa May does need to trigger Article 50 so we can start

:56:19.:56:24.

the talks. Lazy way. Do you think you should have been clear about the

:56:25.:56:27.

difficulties before the ballot? difficulties before the ballot?

:56:28.:56:33.

There are always going to be difficulties. It is always about the

:56:34.:56:37.

positives and the negatives. That was the information that people

:56:38.:56:44.

needed at the time. OK. What did you think of the year? I have been

:56:45.:56:52.

looking at it as Nick Clegg has been writing the Brexit challenge papers

:56:53.:56:54.

and they are quite interesting. There are quite a lot of people who

:56:55.:56:58.

voted leave in my area, including Lib Dems, they have looked at those

:56:59.:57:04.

and he has posed ten or 12 questions on a series of subjects, so he's

:57:05.:57:12.

just writing... Sounds riveting. It is perhaps something that maybe

:57:13.:57:14.

vote. There was some suggestion that vote. There was some suggestion that

:57:15.:57:19.

the Lib Dems should rebrand themselves the European party. But

:57:20.:57:25.

we are not uncritical of Europe. We have a whole raft of manifesto

:57:26.:57:32.

commitments. We felt it was better to be in. 48%, nearly half of the

:57:33.:57:37.

population, agreed on the day they went to vote. We are now talking

:57:38.:57:41.

about a ten minute years negotiation. -- 10-year negotiation.

:57:42.:57:50.

The European Union might not even be here in two years' time. It does

:57:51.:57:55.

that may follow suit. When you talk that may follow suit. When you talk

:57:56.:58:00.

about a 10-year negotiation, that is people's opinions. What we need to

:58:01.:58:03.

do is focus on getting round the table and getting the best deal for

:58:04.:58:07.

the UK and that means all of us coming together, so no more talk

:58:08.:58:15.

about moaning and leave... Is Arab Banks, your boss, going to be

:58:16.:58:19.

conciliatory as welcome as a mark or listen to get our objectives

:58:20.:58:27.

together. That is not what I asked. Have you got confidence in David

:58:28.:58:32.

Davies and Liam Fox and Boris to deliver us a great deal? Absolutely.

:58:33.:58:36.

It is going to be great. He made an important point. We had to get

:58:37.:58:40.

on-board team UK and get on and this. I am reassured to see Tessa

:58:41.:58:46.

Nottingham about. We have to get together. I was very concerned about

:58:47.:58:54.

some of the things that were said in Richmond. I think that is really

:58:55.:58:55.

dangerous to kick sand in the eyes dangerous to kick sand in the eyes

:58:56.:59:02.

of the British people. Your constituents voted for remain. As

:59:03.:59:10.

did I. I happen to think my decision was the right one but there it is,

:59:11.:59:13.

the British people have decided. As Paddy Ashdown himself said, when the

:59:14.:59:17.

British people command, you will obey. Which is why I do think there

:59:18.:59:22.

is a real problem for those who are now seeking to resist Brexit. Are

:59:23.:59:29.

you on the bus or not? I think we should all get on that bus and get

:59:30.:59:34.

the right deal for Britain. But it's really important. We voted to come

:59:35.:59:36.

out of the European Union because we believe it is the best decision for

:59:37.:59:41.

the economy, best for us to take our sovereignty back. How do you reach

:59:42.:59:46.

out to the 40% who didn't? The 60% in Bristol? It is tricky. There was

:59:47.:59:58.

a bus out there... Everybody understands that was a possibility.

:59:59.:00:04.

That has been taken as if it was read. It was there in red and white.

:00:05.:00:10.

It is project fear. We are debating again. It means different things to

:00:11.:00:17.

different people. And we have to protect everybody's interest. Nice

:00:18.:00:23.

to see you again. Find out which MP has had his gun collection taken

:00:24.:00:28.

away in our 62nd round up of the political week.

:00:29.:00:36.

Bristol University launched a scheme to broaden its intake. There will be

:00:37.:00:42.

five places for disadvantaged pupils for every school in the city based

:00:43.:00:46.

on the potential rather than grades. It got top marks on the Education

:00:47.:00:52.

Secretary. I would like to see more universities thinking this way to

:00:53.:00:58.

open their doors. Council tax can rise for up to 3% next year to fund

:00:59.:01:06.

the crisis in social care. Top civil servants and the boss of Network

:01:07.:01:09.

Rail faced a grilling from MPs on Wednesday. The Public Accounts

:01:10.:01:13.

Committee is to report on why the cost of electrifying the line to

:01:14.:01:18.

London has soared. And the Bridgwater MP was told it would take

:01:19.:01:22.

16 weeks to renew the licence for his shotguns and rifles. He gave the

:01:23.:01:28.

police both barrels, accusing them of utter incompetence. He says he

:01:29.:01:31.

will have to miss the shooting season this winter.

:01:32.:01:38.

That was the week that has just gone. The year has almost just gone

:01:39.:01:42.

as well. One quick thought from you both on your hopes for 2070. I would

:01:43.:01:47.

like the Lib Dems to do well in the West Country county council

:01:48.:01:50.

elections that take place in May. I would like to see the United Kingdom

:01:51.:01:54.

making a success of Brexit. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you to

:01:55.:02:00.

my guests. Have a super Christmas and we will see you in January for

:02:01.:02:02.

more West Country politics. Will Article 50 be triggered

:02:03.:02:06.

by the end of March, will President Trump start work

:02:07.:02:19.

on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen

:02:20.:02:23.

provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and

:02:24.:02:48.

Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of

:02:49.:02:50.

you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum

:02:51.:02:54.

and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end

:02:55.:02:57.

of the year? I don't think he will lose

:02:58.:02:59.

the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the

:03:00.:03:13.

referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that

:03:14.:03:17.

coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!

:03:18.:03:23.

It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,

:03:24.:03:28.

Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a

:03:29.:03:33.

host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring

:03:34.:03:36.

and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And

:03:37.:03:42.

until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs

:03:43.:03:45.

Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the

:03:46.:03:51.

likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the

:03:52.:03:55.

Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to

:03:56.:04:01.

properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain

:04:02.:04:06.

is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German

:04:07.:04:11.

election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power

:04:12.:04:15.

in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation

:04:16.:04:18.

and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has

:04:19.:04:26.

been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the

:04:27.:04:30.

government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and

:04:31.:04:33.

even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of

:04:34.:04:38.

the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war

:04:39.:04:45.

could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull

:04:46.:04:51.

year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.

:04:52.:04:56.

The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will

:04:57.:05:02.

say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there

:05:03.:05:08.

will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018

:05:09.:05:12.

which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office

:05:13.:05:18.

which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know

:05:19.:05:22.

there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their

:05:23.:05:26.

elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be

:05:27.:05:31.

more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the

:05:32.:05:35.

Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get

:05:36.:05:40.

them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the

:05:41.:05:43.

things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for

:05:44.:05:47.

Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the

:05:48.:05:53.

economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those

:05:54.:05:57.

already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no

:05:58.:06:03.

guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things

:06:04.:06:07.

Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How

:06:08.:06:12.

much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are

:06:13.:06:18.

willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out

:06:19.:06:23.

into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship

:06:24.:06:26.

with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is

:06:27.:06:36.

also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European

:06:37.:06:40.

security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the

:06:41.:06:46.

rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade

:06:47.:06:49.

everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is

:06:50.:06:53.

bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a

:06:54.:06:58.

punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on

:06:59.:07:02.

the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump

:07:03.:07:06.

changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very

:07:07.:07:12.

different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit

:07:13.:07:20.

was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even

:07:21.:07:23.

one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this

:07:24.:07:26.

panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican

:07:27.:07:30.

nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would

:07:31.:07:43.

not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican

:07:44.:07:47.

nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward

:07:48.:07:52.

a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are

:07:53.:07:57.

pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!

:07:58.:08:02.

We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as

:08:03.:08:07.

president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been

:08:08.:08:14.

noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants

:08:15.:08:20.

massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next

:08:21.:08:26.

year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed

:08:27.:08:32.

the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up

:08:33.:08:36.

interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the

:08:37.:08:41.

Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not

:08:42.:08:46.

Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the

:08:47.:08:51.

rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure

:08:52.:08:55.

projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets

:08:56.:09:00.

those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending

:09:01.:09:05.

he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal

:09:06.:09:09.

government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker

:09:10.:09:15.

Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the

:09:16.:09:20.

American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise

:09:21.:09:24.

in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe

:09:25.:09:31.

will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign

:09:32.:09:35.

debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign

:09:36.:09:40.

debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that

:09:41.:09:45.

happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To

:09:46.:09:52.

begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull

:09:53.:09:55.

off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via

:09:56.:10:01.

corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is

:10:02.:10:06.

too expensive for American business to take back into the US and

:10:07.:10:10.

reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end

:10:11.:10:14.

up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on

:10:15.:10:21.

steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for

:10:22.:10:26.

Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports

:10:27.:10:31.

as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign

:10:32.:10:35.

direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice

:10:36.:10:39.

versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and

:10:40.:10:43.

likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the

:10:44.:10:49.

British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about

:10:50.:10:52.

the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President

:10:53.:10:58.

Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net

:10:59.:11:02.

exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they

:11:03.:11:06.

do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US

:11:07.:11:12.

for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft

:11:13.:11:17.

carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,

:11:18.:11:26.

people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust

:11:27.:11:31.

belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are

:11:32.:11:35.

much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar

:11:36.:11:39.

is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of

:11:40.:11:46.

Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now

:11:47.:11:49.

dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections

:11:50.:11:56.

in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which

:11:57.:12:05.

outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would

:12:06.:12:10.

be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in

:12:11.:12:20.

France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois

:12:21.:12:24.

Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right

:12:25.:12:34.

candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.

:12:35.:12:41.

Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois

:12:42.:12:49.

Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last

:12:50.:12:53.

year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation

:12:54.:13:03.

and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the

:13:04.:13:07.

context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as

:13:08.:13:14.

busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up

:13:15.:13:19.

in my hours! That's all for today,

:13:20.:13:21.

thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:22.:13:23.

on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:24.:13:26.

on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:27.:13:28.

it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer

:13:29.:13:32.

can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography

:13:33.:14:12.

in a radical new direction. The dance was woven

:14:13.:14:30.

into the storyline,

:14:31.:14:34.

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by Alexander Downer, Australian high commissioner to the United Kingdom, Stephen Dorrell, chair of the NHS Confederation, and John Sauven, executive director at Greenpeace.

Helen Lewis of the New Statesman, Iain Martin of Reaction and Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun review the papers.


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