Browse content similar to 18/12/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics. | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit. | :00:41. | :00:42. | |
Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum | :00:43. | :00:44. | |
by forcing a second vote before we leave? | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say". | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business | :00:56. | :00:58. | |
It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly" | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
In the West, teams and their how bad for our health, | :01:05. | :01:15. | |
In the West, teams and their screens. The Cheltenham MP says | :01:16. | :01:16. | |
young people are getting stressed young people are getting stressed | :01:17. | :01:26. | |
And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin, | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme. | :01:34. | :01:41. | |
First this morning, some say they will fight | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum - | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
tried to amend European Parliament resolutions. | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
The original resolution called on the European Parliament | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
of the United Kingdom to leave the EU". | :02:09. | :02:23. | |
He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish | :02:24. | :02:29. | |
must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1% | :02:30. | :02:32. | |
The amendments were proposed in October, | :02:33. | :02:44. | |
but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels | :02:45. | :02:47. | |
Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month. | :02:48. | :02:49. | |
The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February. | :02:50. | :02:51. | |
Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try | :02:55. | :03:03. | |
and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You | :03:30. | :03:35. | |
would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges? | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum, | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But | :04:15. | :04:31. | |
your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is | :04:32. | :04:34. | |
to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would | :04:35. | :04:36. | |
respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government | :04:43. | :04:46. | |
said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the | :04:52. | :04:58. | |
single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will | :05:02. | :05:08. | |
be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a | :05:13. | :05:20. | |
report about future treaty amendments down the road for years | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side | :05:27. | :05:34. | |
reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the | :05:40. | :05:47. | |
text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if | :05:48. | :05:54. | |
the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments, | :05:59. | :06:05. | |
was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European | :06:10. | :06:17. | |
Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am | :06:45. | :06:51. | |
acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the | :07:05. | :07:10. | |
shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable, | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about | :07:20. | :07:26. | |
whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because | :07:27. | :07:33. | |
that has to take account of the future framework of relationships | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That | :07:39. | :07:41. | |
means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the | :07:50. | :07:54. | |
rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be | :08:33. | :08:35. | |
damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
leave it there but thank you for joining us. | :08:50. | :08:55. | |
Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one | :09:11. | :09:17. | |
breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action | :09:18. | :09:19. | |
subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to | :09:24. | :09:28. | |
happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together | :09:39. | :09:45. | |
to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether | :09:57. | :10:06. | |
it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you | :10:29. | :10:32. | |
can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is | :10:43. | :10:49. | |
implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five, | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it, | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa | :11:21. | :11:27. | |
May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that | :11:28. | :11:38. | |
Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I | :11:39. | :11:47. | |
recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't | :11:53. | :11:58. | |
think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we | :12:04. | :12:07. | |
would stay in the customs union after Brexit. | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the | :12:32. | :12:39. | |
cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in | :13:15. | :13:23. | |
Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is | :13:27. | :13:29. | |
Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the | :13:30. | :13:36. | |
customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the | :13:37. | :13:43. | |
customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do | :13:49. | :13:53. | |
free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade | :13:54. | :14:01. | |
deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment | :14:02. | :14:04. | |
but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an | :14:22. | :14:27. | |
argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he | :14:28. | :14:35. | |
wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations, | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look | :14:49. | :14:51. | |
at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I | :14:56. | :15:02. | |
think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we | :15:08. | :15:14. | |
are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this | :15:15. | :15:15. | |
country. So, we've had a warning this week | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
that it could take ten years to do a trade deal | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand | :15:24. | :15:25. | |
trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first | :15:26. | :15:27. | |
countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal | :15:28. | :15:29. | |
with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told | :15:30. | :15:32. | |
us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film | :15:33. | :15:35. | |
for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High | :15:36. | :15:51. | |
Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined | :15:52. | :15:53. | |
the European Union, Now I'm in the job, | :15:54. | :15:55. | |
the UK is leaving. Australia supported | :15:56. | :16:04. | |
Britain remaining a member of the European Union, | :16:05. | :16:05. | |
but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made, | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
we hope that Britain will get on with the process | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision, | :16:19. | :16:22. | |
Australia approached the British Government | :16:23. | :16:28. | |
with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right, | :16:29. | :16:31. | |
to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian | :16:32. | :16:34. | |
governments have already established a working group to explore a future, | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide | :16:41. | :16:43. | |
great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase | :16:44. | :16:55. | |
British-made cars for less We would give British | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter, | :17:01. | :17:06. | |
so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
when the equivalent British or Australian households would have | :17:13. | :17:15. | |
access to British products Free-trade agreements | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source | :17:23. | :17:35. | |
of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests | :17:36. | :17:39. | |
over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade | :17:46. | :17:48. | |
agreements are not just about trade and investment, | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
often work more closely together in other fields including security, | :17:59. | :18:01. | |
the spread of democracy We may have preferred | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK | :18:06. | :18:19. | |
to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can | :18:20. | :18:21. | |
be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement | :18:25. | :18:26. | |
with the United States This is one of the reasons why | :18:27. | :18:28. | |
the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years | :18:29. | :18:40. | |
and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help | :18:44. | :18:54. | |
in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The | :18:55. | :19:23. | |
Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is | :19:28. | :19:33. | |
complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously. | :19:34. | :19:38. | |
The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
already, we have set up a joint working group with the British | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have | :20:07. | :20:12. | |
formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian | :20:23. | :20:29. | |
agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its | :20:30. | :20:34. | |
access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's, | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them. | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not | :21:09. | :21:13. | |
happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international | :21:25. | :21:27. | |
relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that. | :21:28. | :21:32. | |
It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped | :21:37. | :21:42. | |
out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a | :21:43. | :21:44. | |
free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and | :22:02. | :22:05. | |
that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of | :22:06. | :22:09. | |
negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up | :22:10. | :22:15. | |
nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this | :22:16. | :22:19. | |
free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not | :22:30. | :22:32. | |
think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin | :23:04. | :23:06. | |
and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we | :23:16. | :23:23. | |
will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a | :23:42. | :23:44. | |
free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is | :23:45. | :23:51. | |
more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and | :23:57. | :24:00. | |
they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing | :24:01. | :24:09. | |
with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think | :24:10. | :24:12. | |
Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there | :24:13. | :24:19. | |
is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade. | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct | :24:29. | :24:33. | |
barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved | :24:34. | :24:37. | |
in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will | :24:55. | :24:58. | |
try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the | :25:09. | :25:11. | |
Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
against any country. The European Union's free movement means you | :25:23. | :25:26. | |
discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not. | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building | :25:32. | :25:34. | |
of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it | :25:35. | :25:36. | |
more expensive to drive in our towns and cities. | :25:37. | :25:38. | |
Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis | :25:39. | :25:41. | |
of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem? | :25:42. | :25:43. | |
40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK. | :25:44. | :25:57. | |
Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely. | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
about air pollution, that this is a public health | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians, | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
But how bad is air quality in Britain really? | :26:17. | :26:23. | |
Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital. | :26:28. | :26:30. | |
He has been looking into the recent claims | :26:31. | :26:32. | |
It's a problem and it affects people's health. | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
But when people start talking about the numbers | :26:38. | :26:40. | |
of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics. | :26:41. | :26:42. | |
There have been tremendous improvements in air quality | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
There is a lot less pollution than there used to be | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
and none of that is coming through in the public | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year? | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution | :27:04. | :27:05. | |
on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who | :27:06. | :27:07. | |
It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening | :27:08. | :27:13. | |
To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
I asked him about the data on which these claims | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure | :27:30. | :27:36. | |
29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000 | :27:37. | :27:41. | |
I will just talk about this group for a start. | :27:42. | :27:49. | |
These are what are known as attributable deaths. | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model. | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
was based on a study of US cities and they found out that | :28:02. | :28:05. | |
by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had | :28:06. | :28:09. | |
a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate. | :28:10. | :28:15. | |
They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
each year for each small increase in pollution. | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises | :28:30. | :28:32. | |
the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%. | :28:33. | :28:38. | |
So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000 | :28:39. | :28:41. | |
Yes, through a rather complex statistical model. | :28:42. | :28:46. | |
And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
How much should we invest in cycling? | :28:52. | :28:59. | |
Should we build a third runway at Heathrow? | :29:00. | :29:01. | |
We need reliable statistics to answer those questions, | :29:02. | :29:05. | |
but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners? | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
and for air pollution that they don't really | :29:15. | :29:16. | |
see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public. | :29:17. | :29:22. | |
Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing | :29:23. | :29:24. | |
London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day. | :29:25. | :29:27. | |
If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life, | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy. | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
If you are poor and you are in social class five, | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
compared to social class one, that would take seven | :29:39. | :29:40. | |
If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life. | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all | :29:46. | :29:48. | |
of the cars in London and all of the road transport, | :29:49. | :29:50. | |
we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
pollution which might save you 30 days of your life. | :29:55. | :29:59. | |
There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you, | :30:00. | :30:01. | |
but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact | :30:02. | :30:04. | |
on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
And we are joined now by the Executive Director | :30:09. | :30:18. | |
You have called pollution and national crisis and a health | :30:19. | :30:37. | |
emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are | :30:38. | :30:41. | |
remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the | :30:42. | :30:51. | |
studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if | :31:01. | :31:05. | |
you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is | :31:14. | :31:23. | |
down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which | :31:24. | :31:29. | |
we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round. | :31:40. | :31:46. | |
If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of | :31:47. | :31:53. | |
the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really | :31:54. | :32:02. | |
worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe | :32:03. | :32:08. | |
good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is | :32:13. | :32:21. | |
it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if | :32:39. | :32:42. | |
you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
and many studies by London University showing this to be true. | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of | :33:02. | :33:05. | |
pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is | :33:06. | :33:11. | |
causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment. | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution | :33:25. | :33:29. | |
causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is | :33:30. | :33:36. | |
40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff. | :33:37. | :33:45. | |
Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are | :33:46. | :33:50. | |
talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to | :34:11. | :34:18. | |
me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most | :34:19. | :34:24. | |
polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking | :34:25. | :34:30. | |
at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure | :34:31. | :34:35. | |
which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is | :34:42. | :34:51. | |
everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution, | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be | :35:09. | :35:18. | |
premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be | :35:19. | :35:21. | |
by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing | :35:22. | :35:23. | |
difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke | :35:24. | :35:32. | |
and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do | :35:33. | :35:41. | |
you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined | :35:42. | :35:48. | |
that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths. | :35:49. | :35:58. | |
But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000 | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by | :36:04. | :36:07. | |
that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly | :36:13. | :36:16. | |
caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another | :36:27. | :36:33. | |
claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe | :36:34. | :36:39. | |
clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50 | :36:45. | :36:48. | |
cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you | :36:49. | :36:56. | |
look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the | :36:57. | :36:58. | |
actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent | :36:59. | :37:02. | |
effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in | :37:03. | :37:08. | |
terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us | :37:23. | :37:26. | |
that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine | :37:31. | :37:35. | |
months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken | :37:43. | :37:48. | |
it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the | :37:52. | :37:56. | |
thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims, | :38:07. | :38:11. | |
this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate | :38:21. | :38:25. | |
things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been | :38:36. | :38:39. | |
made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think | :38:40. | :38:44. | |
the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly, | :38:45. | :38:48. | |
diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see | :38:55. | :38:58. | |
us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you. | :38:59. | :39:00. | |
It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :39:01. | :39:02. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now | :39:03. | :39:17. | |
Hello. Welcome to the Sunday politics. It is our last before | :39:18. | :39:27. | |
Christmas. You might well be unwrapping a new tablet or phone on | :39:28. | :39:30. | |
the 25th but are they causing more harm than good with teenagers | :39:31. | :39:34. | |
staying up into the small hours to check their texts and tweets? My | :39:35. | :39:44. | |
guests have promised to avoid checking their phones for the next | :39:45. | :39:53. | |
half an hour or so. Welcome to you both. Let's start with the news that | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
many schools in the West are set to get a funding boost. It follows a | :39:58. | :40:07. | |
campaign. You are the vice-chair of the campaign group that wanted this. | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
You got your own way but was it actually worth it in the end? I | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
think the government is absolutely right to have grappled with this. | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
This has been going on for 20 years and it is right that we should have | :40:20. | :40:23. | |
funding based on need not on postcode but the formula that has | :40:24. | :40:27. | |
come out is only one formula. We argued for a different formula. We | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
have to immerse ourselves in the detail. The detail is is that you | :40:33. | :40:37. | |
have got an increase of 0.6%. That pretty underwhelming. We have now | :40:38. | :40:46. | |
got to sit down and work out precisely... We have to work out | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
with the 40 local authorities that came together to look at the | :40:51. | :40:55. | |
methodology that is being used because initial impressions are to | :40:56. | :40:58. | |
is not the methodology that we wanted. So it has been a waste of | :40:59. | :41:03. | |
time? No, not at all. You have got to look at it across the piece in | :41:04. | :41:07. | |
terms of what has happened. The situation where you had places in | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
London getting 6500 per head and places in Somerset getting 4000 is | :41:13. | :41:18. | |
plainly unjustified. But how you make it fairer is what we have to | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
look at. Somerset has done quite well out of this but it is a long | :41:24. | :41:31. | |
time coming. 4.7%, which is good. But there are underlying cuts that | :41:32. | :41:34. | |
the government is making to the overall schools budget as well | :41:35. | :41:41. | |
forges a problem. We should focus on what is needed and making sure that | :41:42. | :41:47. | |
schools get the surety that they need. It is a frequent sound in your | :41:48. | :41:56. | |
house? The constant beeping of our phones and tablets question market | :41:57. | :42:01. | |
is becoming a concern for Alex. He is worried about the effect that | :42:02. | :42:04. | |
social media is having on today's youth. We will find out why in a | :42:05. | :42:13. | |
moment but first this report. They are the first thing we pick up | :42:14. | :42:16. | |
in the morning, the last thing we put down at night. We have become a | :42:17. | :42:21. | |
nation of digital addicts, glued to our devices, keeping up to speed | :42:22. | :42:32. | |
sultans of swiping or of course the sultans of swiping or of course the | :42:33. | :42:36. | |
millennial 's. Using social media to stay in touch and have fun. Though | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
even they underestimate how much they are on their phones. How many | :42:41. | :42:44. | |
times a day do you check your phone? 30 times. About 50. 40 roughly. A | :42:45. | :42:53. | |
recent study suggests we actually check our phones an average of 85 | :42:54. | :42:57. | |
times a day. Those we met up this chart school now use a giddying | :42:58. | :43:01. | |
array of apps to stay in touch. It array of apps to stay in touch. It | :43:02. | :43:11. | |
is like really when I get home until about two hours before I go to | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
sleep. I would check my various social media is at least once every | :43:17. | :43:24. | |
hour or so. And then I might maybe wake up during the night and if I am | :43:25. | :43:31. | |
awake, I might think, I may as well awake, I might think, I may as well | :43:32. | :43:37. | |
have a little scroll through. And she's not alone. New research shows | :43:38. | :43:41. | |
that almost half of all secondary aged children do this, checking | :43:42. | :43:45. | |
their phones after going to bed. It is being claimed one in ten look at | :43:46. | :43:48. | |
their screens more than ten times a night. It is an addiction really. I | :43:49. | :43:55. | |
know not just young people that adults that are falling into that | :43:56. | :44:00. | |
habit of sort of a deep anxiety when they don't have their phone with | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
them. They are constantly checking to see if they have had messages, | :44:05. | :44:14. | |
likes, any posts that they may have posted. They are looking for | :44:15. | :44:20. | |
validation and acceptance. And that becomes addictive. This virtual | :44:21. | :44:25. | |
world has prompted a raft of vocabulary to explain some of the | :44:26. | :44:26. | |
unwelcome side-effects. In a school environment, have you | :44:27. | :44:47. | |
seen friends of yours, contemporaries of yours, being | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
picked on on social media? Yes, I know a lot of people who have gone | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
through a dark time. The chop MP has taken the issue to Parliament. He | :44:58. | :45:01. | |
wants an enquiry in the New Year. Social media companies ought to be | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
policing their code of conduct more effectively. They need to look at | :45:07. | :45:13. | |
potentially a yellow card suspension and a red card. If it is just for a | :45:14. | :45:18. | |
short period, it sends a message, these are the rules, abide by them. | :45:19. | :45:19. | |
Facebook told us... Those who work in social media work | :45:20. | :45:41. | |
Keynesian position be on education rather than a yellow or red card | :45:42. | :45:48. | |
system. My first reaction is it seems quite naive that there is | :45:49. | :45:51. | |
already pretty much a yellow and a red card system and most of those | :45:52. | :45:57. | |
networks. You can block a post, or you can block a user. This stuff | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
exists. We just need to educate people on the fact it is there. For | :46:04. | :46:07. | |
teenagers who love their phones, they just want to be teenagers. Are | :46:08. | :46:14. | |
these meaningful conversations? No, random. You just talk about random | :46:15. | :46:28. | |
things, you don't know why. But while our devices can cope with any | :46:29. | :46:32. | |
number of swipes, likes and online gripes, are we mere humans able to | :46:33. | :46:36. | |
handle this new torrent of information in the digital age? | :46:37. | :46:41. | |
Very interesting. This is your campaign. It is almost as if we knew | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
you were coming on the programme. I don't quite get what you want | :46:46. | :46:50. | |
because as the man said in the film, there are already blocking | :46:51. | :46:53. | |
mechanisms. What would the difference be? I was a bit | :46:54. | :47:00. | |
disappointed by that. Social media companies are abdicating | :47:01. | :47:04. | |
responsibility for something that is clearly happening online to a far | :47:05. | :47:08. | |
greater extent than they are prepared to accept. Of course it is | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
possible you can delete a post and block a user but the question is, | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
that relies on the individual to take what can be quite a serious | :47:17. | :47:18. | |
step. What I would like to see them step. What I would like to see them | :47:19. | :47:25. | |
doing is where they detect that people are bullying people, | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
harassing people, they have got to intervene far more robustly than | :47:30. | :47:35. | |
they are at the moment. The fact is, children are saying the occasions | :47:36. | :47:38. | |
when people are suspended from the networks are vanishingly rare. It is | :47:39. | :47:48. | |
very difficult to actually legislate and create rules for something... Do | :47:49. | :47:52. | |
you treat somebody who has had a bit of a life... A public life in a | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
different way from somebody who has not? Do you treat an 18-year-old | :47:58. | :48:04. | |
differently to a 16-year-old Mark is very difficult. Facebook 's point is | :48:05. | :48:08. | |
a good one but nonetheless I accept there is a problem. But it affects | :48:09. | :48:15. | |
all ages, not just children and when all ages, not just children and when | :48:16. | :48:21. | |
it comes to teenagers it is the job of the parent to keep an eye. | :48:22. | :48:26. | |
Parents have a role to play but a lot of them are not digital natives | :48:27. | :48:34. | |
and what we are seniors young people developing mental health problems on | :48:35. | :48:40. | |
a scale we have not seen before. We have to look at prevention as well | :48:41. | :48:46. | |
as cure. The Office for National Statistics say there is a | :48:47. | :48:50. | |
correlation between time spent on social media and adverse mental | :48:51. | :48:53. | |
health. We have to grapple with this. We cannot simply ignore it. He | :48:54. | :49:00. | |
laughed to build resilience in your children and your children's friends | :49:01. | :49:03. | |
because every parent knows other young people... Bullying was in the | :49:04. | :49:13. | |
playground before it was on the phone. It is everywhere. But | :49:14. | :49:17. | |
bullying used to stop at the playground gates. I don't think it | :49:18. | :49:24. | |
did. But now, the bullies are in the bedroom. Facebook is a private | :49:25. | :49:29. | |
company, it has been very successful. A billion people use it. | :49:30. | :49:33. | |
It is impossible to expect them to police it in a thorough way, just as | :49:34. | :49:39. | |
it would be impossible to ask BT to stop people saying rude things on | :49:40. | :49:44. | |
the telephone. Well, it is a slightly different point. They are | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
making a huge amount of money out of the people who are using it. I do | :49:49. | :49:52. | |
not think it is beyond the realms of common sense that in the same way | :49:53. | :49:55. | |
you say to a head teacher, if there is bullying going on in your school, | :49:56. | :49:59. | |
you have a responsibility for it. If there is bullying taking place on | :50:00. | :50:04. | |
their digital premises, they cannot wash their hands of it. It is much | :50:05. | :50:09. | |
more important than when children or young people find themselves in | :50:10. | :50:12. | |
difficulty they know where to go, what to do about it. But also we | :50:13. | :50:19. | |
need to make up to be certain that there is mental health support out | :50:20. | :50:22. | |
there for young people when they need help because actually look at | :50:23. | :50:24. | |
the mental health services in my the mental health services in my | :50:25. | :50:27. | |
area, you can wait six months for an appointment. My son came to me and | :50:28. | :50:37. | |
said, one year. One year without Facebook. I hadn't even noticed | :50:38. | :50:44. | |
are moderate users. The teenagers we are moderate users. The teenagers we | :50:45. | :50:49. | |
saw there had a great deal of fun saw there had a great deal of fun | :50:50. | :50:52. | |
with it and it is a great way of keeping in touch. In the good old | :50:53. | :50:56. | |
days, you had a talk to your friend and you had to be on the phone with | :50:57. | :51:02. | |
your dad going like this... Because of the phone bill. Now things have | :51:03. | :51:07. | |
changed and move on and the kids are adept at dealing with it. Of course | :51:08. | :51:12. | |
they are. Absolutely right. But we're also seeing this rising mental | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
health problems and an association with social media. We could sweep it | :51:18. | :51:21. | |
under the carpet and say bullying has always been with us or we can | :51:22. | :51:26. | |
get to grips with it. Scientific studies are increasingly saying this | :51:27. | :51:28. | |
is a problem and we'll all have to play our part. Income tax, Facebook | :51:29. | :51:39. | |
have moved on the income tax issue. They have now agreed to pay tax on | :51:40. | :51:47. | |
earnings. That is what we want. How was 2016 for you? Did anything much | :51:48. | :51:52. | |
happened? To quote President-elect Trump, the world changed bigly. | :51:53. | :52:00. | |
There was Brexit and the fall of a Prime Minister and leadership | :52:01. | :52:07. | |
contest that the leadership contest. 2016 began with a bang. The | :52:08. | :52:08. | |
political fireworks never stopped. It has been absolutely fascinating. | :52:09. | :52:28. | |
To be in this place behind me, understanding how things evolve has | :52:29. | :52:35. | |
been fascinating. It has been like the fifth day of the Lord's Ashes | :52:36. | :52:40. | |
Test and England needing to win with only two wickets left. He went out | :52:41. | :52:46. | |
to bat for Brexit and was one of the stars of the winning team. For the | :52:47. | :52:49. | |
losing side, it feels rather different. Can you think of any | :52:50. | :52:54. | |
highlights from 2016? Getting to the end of it in one piece. I'm not sure | :52:55. | :52:59. | |
there were many highlights of 2016. The highlight was getting selected, | :53:00. | :53:11. | |
Marvin as Maher of Bristol. But it was overshadowed by the referendum. | :53:12. | :53:19. | |
It has caused some soul-searching. I think that this connection is very | :53:20. | :53:24. | |
apparent in city like a bar. They have not had a voice for a very long | :53:25. | :53:29. | |
period of time. And they think that politicians take them for granted. | :53:30. | :53:33. | |
Politicians say one thing and do another thing. So, David Cameron | :53:34. | :53:39. | |
went, sparking a leadership contest. Theresa May always looked a good | :53:40. | :53:45. | |
bet, though not all Tory MPs. She is my new heroine. I think she's | :53:46. | :53:51. | |
fantastic. I got the Conservative leadership hopelessly wrong. I | :53:52. | :53:53. | |
thought it was essential that we have a lever to ensure that we left | :53:54. | :53:58. | |
the European Union properly. I think that was a mistake. I think that | :53:59. | :54:02. | |
having a remainder has been very powerful. While the Conservatives | :54:03. | :54:08. | |
started to heal their wounds, Labour's civil war lasted much | :54:09. | :54:11. | |
longer with critics of their leader still sharpening their knives. If | :54:12. | :54:14. | |
the polls don't pick up then I think the polls don't pick up then I think | :54:15. | :54:18. | |
people have said that we need to look at the situation again in 12 | :54:19. | :54:24. | |
months' time. Another leadership challenge? I am not calling for that | :54:25. | :54:28. | |
at the moment. I think that any leader would want to take the party | :54:29. | :54:32. | |
to a general election victory and ought to reflect on whether they are | :54:33. | :54:35. | |
voted not just bring this a new voted not just bring this a new | :54:36. | :54:41. | |
primaries do, it also meant a reshuffle in July. Out went several | :54:42. | :54:48. | |
West MPs. One or two apparently their own accord whilst others were | :54:49. | :54:51. | |
too closely linked to David Cameron. In came others with a top job for | :54:52. | :54:57. | |
one return from the backbenches. Liam Fox became Secretary of State | :54:58. | :55:00. | |
for International trade. He is a strong admirer of America and will | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
want to do deals with the winner from the latest electoral shock. I | :55:05. | :55:11. | |
think most American presidents are needed as bad as feared, nor as good | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
as expected. Barack Obama came in with huge expectations and has | :55:17. | :55:20. | |
turned out to be a wet flannel. Donald Trump, people are nervous | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
political floss of years but I political floss of years but I | :55:24. | :55:27. | |
suspect it will not be as bad as people are saying. 2016 proved | :55:28. | :55:34. | |
unpredictable. What 2017 will bring his -- knowing what 2017 will bring | :55:35. | :55:39. | |
is pretty impossible. That was the year that was. We are | :55:40. | :55:44. | |
joined by the Chief Executive of the campaign group leave .edu. We all | :55:45. | :55:54. | |
know you one. But we were given the impression it was going to be | :55:55. | :55:58. | |
straightforward. At season. I think it is just such an unknown process, | :55:59. | :56:06. | |
there is no prescribed mechanism for to do to think it feels like | :56:07. | :56:09. | |
everyone is bumping along and what we need to do is make some quick | :56:10. | :56:13. | |
decisions and actually lazy way of how we come out of the European | :56:14. | :56:18. | |
Union. Theresa May does need to trigger Article 50 so we can start | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
the talks. Lazy way. Do you think you should have been clear about the | :56:25. | :56:27. | |
difficulties before the ballot? difficulties before the ballot? | :56:28. | :56:33. | |
There are always going to be difficulties. It is always about the | :56:34. | :56:37. | |
positives and the negatives. That was the information that people | :56:38. | :56:44. | |
needed at the time. OK. What did you think of the year? I have been | :56:45. | :56:52. | |
looking at it as Nick Clegg has been writing the Brexit challenge papers | :56:53. | :56:54. | |
and they are quite interesting. There are quite a lot of people who | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
voted leave in my area, including Lib Dems, they have looked at those | :56:59. | :57:04. | |
and he has posed ten or 12 questions on a series of subjects, so he's | :57:05. | :57:12. | |
just writing... Sounds riveting. It is perhaps something that maybe | :57:13. | :57:14. | |
vote. There was some suggestion that vote. There was some suggestion that | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
the Lib Dems should rebrand themselves the European party. But | :57:20. | :57:25. | |
we are not uncritical of Europe. We have a whole raft of manifesto | :57:26. | :57:32. | |
commitments. We felt it was better to be in. 48%, nearly half of the | :57:33. | :57:37. | |
population, agreed on the day they went to vote. We are now talking | :57:38. | :57:41. | |
about a ten minute years negotiation. -- 10-year negotiation. | :57:42. | :57:50. | |
The European Union might not even be here in two years' time. It does | :57:51. | :57:55. | |
that may follow suit. When you talk that may follow suit. When you talk | :57:56. | :58:00. | |
about a 10-year negotiation, that is people's opinions. What we need to | :58:01. | :58:03. | |
do is focus on getting round the table and getting the best deal for | :58:04. | :58:07. | |
the UK and that means all of us coming together, so no more talk | :58:08. | :58:15. | |
about moaning and leave... Is Arab Banks, your boss, going to be | :58:16. | :58:19. | |
conciliatory as welcome as a mark or listen to get our objectives | :58:20. | :58:27. | |
together. That is not what I asked. Have you got confidence in David | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
Davies and Liam Fox and Boris to deliver us a great deal? Absolutely. | :58:33. | :58:36. | |
It is going to be great. He made an important point. We had to get | :58:37. | :58:40. | |
on-board team UK and get on and this. I am reassured to see Tessa | :58:41. | :58:46. | |
Nottingham about. We have to get together. I was very concerned about | :58:47. | :58:54. | |
some of the things that were said in Richmond. I think that is really | :58:55. | :58:55. | |
dangerous to kick sand in the eyes dangerous to kick sand in the eyes | :58:56. | :59:02. | |
of the British people. Your constituents voted for remain. As | :59:03. | :59:10. | |
did I. I happen to think my decision was the right one but there it is, | :59:11. | :59:13. | |
the British people have decided. As Paddy Ashdown himself said, when the | :59:14. | :59:17. | |
British people command, you will obey. Which is why I do think there | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
is a real problem for those who are now seeking to resist Brexit. Are | :59:23. | :59:29. | |
you on the bus or not? I think we should all get on that bus and get | :59:30. | :59:34. | |
the right deal for Britain. But it's really important. We voted to come | :59:35. | :59:36. | |
out of the European Union because we believe it is the best decision for | :59:37. | :59:41. | |
the economy, best for us to take our sovereignty back. How do you reach | :59:42. | :59:46. | |
out to the 40% who didn't? The 60% in Bristol? It is tricky. There was | :59:47. | :59:58. | |
a bus out there... Everybody understands that was a possibility. | :59:59. | :00:04. | |
That has been taken as if it was read. It was there in red and white. | :00:05. | :00:10. | |
It is project fear. We are debating again. It means different things to | :00:11. | :00:17. | |
different people. And we have to protect everybody's interest. Nice | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
to see you again. Find out which MP has had his gun collection taken | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
away in our 62nd round up of the political week. | :00:29. | :00:36. | |
Bristol University launched a scheme to broaden its intake. There will be | :00:37. | :00:42. | |
five places for disadvantaged pupils for every school in the city based | :00:43. | :00:46. | |
on the potential rather than grades. It got top marks on the Education | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
Secretary. I would like to see more universities thinking this way to | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
open their doors. Council tax can rise for up to 3% next year to fund | :00:59. | :01:06. | |
the crisis in social care. Top civil servants and the boss of Network | :01:07. | :01:09. | |
Rail faced a grilling from MPs on Wednesday. The Public Accounts | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
Committee is to report on why the cost of electrifying the line to | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
London has soared. And the Bridgwater MP was told it would take | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
16 weeks to renew the licence for his shotguns and rifles. He gave the | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
police both barrels, accusing them of utter incompetence. He says he | :01:29. | :01:31. | |
will have to miss the shooting season this winter. | :01:32. | :01:38. | |
That was the week that has just gone. The year has almost just gone | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
as well. One quick thought from you both on your hopes for 2070. I would | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
like the Lib Dems to do well in the West Country county council | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
elections that take place in May. I would like to see the United Kingdom | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
making a success of Brexit. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you to | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
my guests. Have a super Christmas and we will see you in January for | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
more West Country politics. Will Article 50 be triggered | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
by the end of March, will President Trump start work | :02:07. | :02:19. | |
on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and | :02:24. | :02:48. | |
Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of | :02:49. | :02:50. | |
you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
of the year? I don't think he will lose | :02:58. | :02:59. | |
the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the | :03:00. | :03:13. | |
referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television! | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible, | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a | :03:29. | :03:33. | |
host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation | :04:16. | :04:18. | |
and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has | :04:19. | :04:26. | |
been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and | :04:31. | :04:33. | |
even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war | :04:39. | :04:45. | |
could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull | :04:46. | :04:51. | |
year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan. | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will | :04:57. | :05:02. | |
say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there | :05:03. | :05:08. | |
will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018 | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office | :05:13. | :05:18. | |
which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get | :05:36. | :05:40. | |
them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are | :06:13. | :06:18. | |
willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is | :06:27. | :06:36. | |
also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is | :06:50. | :06:53. | |
bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit | :07:13. | :07:20. | |
was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would | :07:31. | :07:43. | |
not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already! | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been | :08:08. | :08:14. | |
noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker | :09:10. | :09:15. | |
Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe | :09:25. | :09:31. | |
will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
too expensive for American business to take back into the US and | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the | :10:44. | :10:49. | |
British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about | :10:50. | :10:52. | |
the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution, | :11:18. | :11:26. | |
people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of | :11:40. | :11:46. | |
Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections | :11:50. | :11:56. | |
in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which | :11:57. | :12:05. | |
outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in | :12:11. | :12:20. | |
France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right | :12:25. | :12:34. | |
candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite. | :12:35. | :12:41. | |
Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois | :12:42. | :12:49. | |
Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation | :12:54. | :13:03. | |
and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as | :13:08. | :13:14. | |
busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
in my hours! That's all for today, | :13:20. | :13:21. | |
thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back | :13:22. | :13:23. | |
on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday, | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography | :13:33. | :14:12. | |
in a radical new direction. The dance was woven | :14:13. | :14:30. | |
into the storyline, | :14:31. | :14:34. |