02/04/2017 Sunday Politics West


02/04/2017

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth MP, former Conservative Party leader Lord Michael Howard and John Curtice.


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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

:00:40.:00:42.

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

:00:43.:00:47.

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

:00:48.:00:52.

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

:00:53.:00:56.

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

:00:57.:01:01.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

:01:02.:01:04.

And then the West, and who's going up and who's going down?

:01:05.:01:15.

And then the West, and education special. We are talking about

:01:16.:01:17.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

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there constituencies. And with me, as always,

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

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Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

:01:31.:01:33.

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

:01:34.:01:38.

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

:01:39.:01:41.

of a shock. The guidelines propose

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that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

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deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

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strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

:01:53.:01:57.

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

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Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

:02:00.:02:06.

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

:02:07.:02:11.

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

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cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

:02:17.:02:18.

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

:02:19.:02:21.

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

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in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

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that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

:02:28.:02:38.

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

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Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

:02:44.:02:47.

and again is that at different points individual countries can

:02:48.:02:52.

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

:02:53.:02:59.

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

:03:00.:03:04.

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

:03:05.:03:10.

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

:03:11.:03:19.

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

:03:20.:03:22.

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

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Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

:03:28.:03:33.

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

:03:34.:03:36.

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

:03:37.:03:42.

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

:03:43.:03:50.

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

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10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

:03:58.:04:00.

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

:04:01.:04:05.

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

:04:06.:04:11.

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

:04:12.:04:16.

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

:04:17.:04:19.

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

:04:20.:04:25.

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

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it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

:04:31.:04:34.

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

:04:35.:04:39.

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

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Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

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see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

:04:50.:04:52.

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

:04:53.:04:57.

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

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For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

:05:04.:05:08.

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

:05:09.:05:13.

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

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after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

:05:18.:05:24.

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

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much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

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still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

:05:35.:05:39.

next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

:05:40.:05:45.

empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

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got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

:05:53.:05:55.

will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

:05:56.:06:00.

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

:06:01.:06:05.

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

:06:06.:06:09.

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

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Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

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changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

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months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

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up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

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the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

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journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

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a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

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control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

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involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

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in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

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from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

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of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

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where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

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from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

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sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

:07:12.:07:21.

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

:07:22.:07:23.

to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

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hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

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all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

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of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

:07:35.:07:41.

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

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at the same time. It also mentioned the word

:07:49.:07:50.

"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

:07:51.:07:52.

would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

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and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

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to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

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policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

:08:03.:08:08.

information in the same way as we would as a member,

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so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

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a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

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in the way that we have. That night, the

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Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

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Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

:08:23.:08:28.

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

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actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

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suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

:08:41.:08:55.

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

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if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

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as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

:08:57.:08:56.

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

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of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

:09:00.:09:02.

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

:09:03.:09:05.

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

:09:06.:09:08.

law to change later, It is not without its critics

:09:09.:09:10.

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

:09:11.:09:15.

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

:09:16.:09:17.

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

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we are doing so from a position where we have the same

:09:25.:09:27.

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

:09:28.:09:29.

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

:09:30.:09:35.

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

:09:36.:09:37.

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

:09:38.:09:44.

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

:09:45.:09:47.

they were not allowed Great(!)

:09:48.:09:50.

so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

:09:51.:09:57.

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

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Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

:10:01.:10:03.

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

:10:04.:10:06.

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

:10:07.:10:12.

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

:10:13.:10:15.

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

:10:16.:10:18.

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

:10:19.:10:21.

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

:10:22.:10:30.

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

:10:31.:10:35.

already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

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the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

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elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

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are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

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celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

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by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

:11:04.:11:11.

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

:11:12.:11:15.

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

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phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

:11:23.:11:28.

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

:11:29.:11:33.

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

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might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

:11:38.:11:43.

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

:11:44.:11:47.

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

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Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

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of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

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remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

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A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

:12:09.:12:11.

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

:12:12.:12:17.

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

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wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

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what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

:12:30.:12:33.

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

:12:34.:12:37.

and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

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that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

:12:44.:12:48.

is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

:12:49.:12:56.

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

:12:57.:13:01.

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

:13:02.:13:07.

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

:13:08.:13:10.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

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cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

:13:22.:13:24.

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

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The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

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after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

:13:34.:13:38.

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

:13:39.:13:42.

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

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depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

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getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

:13:52.:13:58.

judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

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know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

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then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

:14:07.:14:13.

something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

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stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

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and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

:14:23.:14:26.

to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

:14:27.:14:31.

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

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yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

:14:38.:14:42.

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

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not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

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another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

:14:50.:14:52.

comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

:14:53.:14:58.

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

:14:59.:15:06.

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

:15:07.:15:10.

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

:15:11.:15:15.

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

:15:16.:15:23.

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

:15:24.:15:27.

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

:15:28.:15:32.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

:15:33.:15:38.

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

:15:39.:15:41.

important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

:15:42.:15:43.

the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

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having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

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think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

:16:01.:16:07.

the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

:16:08.:16:11.

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

:16:12.:16:17.

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

:16:18.:16:21.

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

:16:22.:16:29.

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

:16:30.:16:33.

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

:16:34.:16:38.

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

:16:39.:16:43.

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

:16:44.:16:46.

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

:16:47.:16:51.

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

:16:52.:16:55.

in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

:16:56.:17:00.

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

:17:01.:17:05.

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

:17:06.:17:11.

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

:17:12.:17:16.

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

:17:17.:17:22.

week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

:17:23.:17:25.

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

:17:26.:17:29.

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

:17:30.:17:34.

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

:17:35.:17:38.

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

:17:39.:17:49.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

:17:50.:17:51.

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

:17:52.:17:54.

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

:17:55.:17:57.

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

:17:58.:18:03.

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

:18:04.:18:09.

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

:18:10.:18:13.

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

:18:14.:18:18.

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

:18:19.:18:23.

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

:18:24.:18:27.

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

:18:28.:18:29.

morning. Although sometimes it seems

:18:30.:18:32.

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

:18:33.:18:34.

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

:18:35.:18:35.

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

:18:36.:18:38.

up for grabs. Local elections take place

:18:39.:18:42.

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

:18:43.:18:44.

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

:18:45.:18:49.

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

:18:50.:18:56.

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

:18:57.:19:02.

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

:19:03.:19:06.

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

:19:07.:19:09.

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

:19:10.:19:16.

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

:19:17.:19:18.

councils are being contested, many of them affected

:19:19.:19:21.

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

:19:22.:19:23.

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

:19:24.:19:26.

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

:19:27.:19:31.

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

:19:32.:19:38.

though independent candidates currently hold

:19:39.:19:39.

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

:19:40.:19:42.

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

:19:43.:19:44.

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

:19:45.:19:49.

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

:19:50.:19:52.

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

:19:53.:19:59.

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

:20:00.:20:01.

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

:20:02.:20:06.

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

:20:07.:20:08.

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

:20:09.:20:11.

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

:20:12.:20:14.

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

:20:15.:20:23.

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

:20:24.:20:25.

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

:20:26.:20:28.

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

:20:29.:20:30.

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

:20:31.:20:38.

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

:20:39.:20:42.

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

:20:43.:20:46.

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

:20:47.:20:51.

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

:20:52.:20:56.

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

:20:57.:20:59.

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

:21:00.:21:03.

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

:21:04.:21:15.

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

:21:16.:21:17.

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

:21:18.:21:20.

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

:21:21.:21:23.

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

:21:24.:21:27.

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

:21:28.:21:31.

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

:21:32.:21:35.

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

:21:36.:21:39.

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

:21:40.:21:43.

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

:21:44.:21:47.

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

:21:48.:21:55.

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

:21:56.:21:57.

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

:21:58.:22:01.

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

:22:02.:22:05.

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

:22:06.:22:09.

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

:22:10.:22:12.

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

:22:13.:22:16.

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

:22:17.:22:21.

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

:22:22.:22:52.

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

:22:53.:22:56.

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

:22:57.:22:57.

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

:22:58.:23:00.

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

:23:01.:23:03.

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

:23:04.:23:05.

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

:23:06.:23:08.

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

:23:09.:23:11.

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

:23:12.:23:13.

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

:23:14.:23:16.

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

:23:17.:23:18.

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

:23:19.:23:21.

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

:23:22.:23:27.

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

:23:28.:23:31.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

:23:32.:23:36.

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

:23:37.:23:43.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

:23:44.:23:48.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

:23:49.:23:54.

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

:23:55.:23:57.

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

:23:58.:24:03.

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

:24:04.:24:07.

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

:24:08.:24:11.

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

:24:12.:24:15.

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

:24:16.:24:24.

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

:24:25.:24:26.

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

:24:27.:24:30.

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

:24:31.:24:34.

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

:24:35.:24:38.

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

:24:39.:24:43.

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

:24:44.:24:47.

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

:24:48.:24:53.

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

:24:54.:24:56.

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

:24:57.:25:03.

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

:25:04.:25:06.

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

:25:07.:25:12.

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

:25:13.:25:17.

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

:25:18.:25:22.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

:25:23.:25:24.

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

:25:25.:25:40.

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

:25:41.:25:43.

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

:25:44.:25:45.

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

:25:46.:25:47.

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

:25:48.:25:50.

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

:25:51.:25:57.

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

:25:58.:26:00.

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

:26:01.:26:06.

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

:26:07.:26:12.

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

:26:13.:26:16.

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

:26:17.:26:20.

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

:26:21.:26:27.

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

:26:28.:26:34.

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

:26:35.:26:38.

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

:26:39.:26:44.

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

:26:45.:26:50.

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

:26:51.:26:55.

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

:26:56.:27:00.

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

:27:01.:27:04.

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

:27:05.:27:07.

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

:27:08.:27:12.

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

:27:13.:27:15.

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

:27:16.:27:19.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

:27:20.:27:24.

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

:27:25.:27:28.

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

:27:29.:27:32.

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

:27:33.:27:39.

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

:27:40.:27:44.

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

:27:45.:27:50.

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

:27:51.:28:10.

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

:28:11.:28:14.

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

:28:15.:28:16.

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

:28:17.:28:18.

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

:28:19.:28:20.

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

:28:21.:28:22.

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

:28:23.:28:25.

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

:28:26.:28:27.

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

:28:28.:28:32.

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

:28:33.:28:38.

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

:28:39.:28:43.

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

:28:44.:28:47.

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

:28:48.:28:49.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

:28:50.:28:52.

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

:28:53.:28:55.

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

:28:56.:28:57.

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

:28:58.:29:02.

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

:29:03.:29:04.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

:29:05.:29:09.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

:29:10.:29:11.

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

:29:12.:29:13.

and by the way, that is another part of

:29:14.:29:15.

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

:29:16.:29:19.

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

:29:20.:29:25.

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

:29:26.:29:27.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

:29:28.:29:33.

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

:29:34.:29:35.

concerns about the way the country is run.

:29:36.:29:40.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:29:41.:29:45.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

:29:46.:29:50.

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

:29:51.:29:55.

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

:29:56.:30:02.

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

:30:03.:30:06.

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

:30:07.:30:10.

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

:30:11.:30:15.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

:30:16.:30:19.

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

:30:20.:30:24.

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

:30:25.:30:33.

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

:30:34.:30:40.

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

:30:41.:30:47.

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

:30:48.:30:55.

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

:30:56.:30:59.

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

:31:00.:31:04.

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

:31:05.:31:09.

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

:31:10.:31:16.

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

:31:17.:31:23.

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

:31:24.:31:26.

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

:31:27.:31:30.

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

:31:31.:31:36.

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

:31:37.:31:43.

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

:31:44.:31:47.

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

:31:48.:31:51.

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

:31:52.:31:59.

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

:32:00.:32:04.

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

:32:05.:32:09.

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

:32:10.:32:17.

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

:32:18.:32:22.

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

:32:23.:32:28.

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

:32:29.:32:32.

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

:32:33.:32:37.

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

:32:38.:32:41.

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

:32:42.:32:46.

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

:32:47.:32:51.

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

:32:52.:32:55.

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

:32:56.:33:01.

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

:33:02.:33:06.

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

:33:07.:33:14.

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

:33:15.:33:18.

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

:33:19.:33:25.

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

:33:26.:33:35.

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

:33:36.:33:39.

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

:33:40.:33:44.

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

:33:45.:33:50.

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

:33:51.:33:56.

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

:33:57.:34:08.

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:09.:34:11.

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

:34:12.:34:16.

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

:34:17.:34:26.

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

:34:27.:34:31.

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

:34:32.:34:36.

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

:34:37.:34:41.

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

:34:42.:34:47.

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

:34:48.:34:53.

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

:34:54.:34:59.

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

:35:00.:35:04.

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

:35:05.:35:08.

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

:35:09.:35:12.

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

:35:13.:35:16.

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

:35:17.:35:22.

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

:35:23.:35:28.

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

:35:29.:35:30.

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

:35:31.:35:36.

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

:35:37.:35:40.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

:35:41.:35:44.

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

:35:45.:35:48.

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

:35:49.:35:53.

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

:35:54.:36:00.

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

:36:01.:36:04.

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

:36:05.:36:08.

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

:36:09.:36:16.

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

:36:17.:36:23.

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

:36:24.:36:27.

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

:36:28.:36:30.

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

:36:31.:36:34.

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

:36:35.:36:40.

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

:36:41.:36:45.

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

:36:46.:36:50.

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

:36:51.:36:54.

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

:36:55.:36:58.

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

:36:59.:37:01.

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

:37:02.:37:05.

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

:37:06.:37:08.

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

:37:09.:37:16.

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

:37:17.:37:21.

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

:37:22.:37:26.

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

:37:27.:37:29.

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

:37:30.:37:35.

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

:37:36.:37:40.

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

:37:41.:37:43.

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

:37:44.:37:51.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the glorious West

:37:52.:38:03.

A slightly unusual programme from us today.

:38:04.:38:08.

We're not talking about Brexit in any shape or

:38:09.:38:11.

We are discussing education, education and then education.

:38:12.:38:14.

We are at the University of the West of

:38:15.:38:16.

England where there are 28,000 students studying.

:38:17.:38:19.

Our first discussion is about school funding.

:38:20.:38:24.

Some schools will get more money, others less.

:38:25.:38:29.

But they are all saying it's simply not enough.

:38:30.:38:35.

Schools across the West say they are under pressure.

:38:36.:38:42.

The Government is introducing a new system of funding

:38:43.:38:44.

While this class learns about Dickens, the headteacher

:38:45.:38:56.

is getting ready for financial hard times.

:38:57.:39:00.

Over 20,000 secondary school students will lose as a result of

:39:01.:39:08.

When you consider that as a school we sit in

:39:09.:39:13.

one of the lowest funded counties, to be losing

:39:14.:39:15.

2.5%, that simply takes the

:39:16.:39:17.

meaning out of the term fair when associated with fairer funding.

:39:18.:39:30.

The new formula is only part of the problem.

:39:31.:39:31.

Even schools which gain under the new proposal are worried

:39:32.:39:34.

because rising costs will be more than the increased funding.

:39:35.:39:37.

We've been looking at all the usual strategies that other schools have

:39:38.:39:39.

done, looking at cutting support staff significantly,

:39:40.:39:42.

absence of development projects, maintenance is cut to the bare

:39:43.:39:45.

minimum for safeguarding health and safety but nothing more than that.

:39:46.:39:50.

The most painful cut, a reduction in teaching time at A-level.

:39:51.:39:53.

We are reducing, for example, five hours for

:39:54.:40:03.

A-level teaching per week, to four hours per subject.

:40:04.:40:06.

Nine in ten schools in the south-west who responded to a

:40:07.:40:11.

survey by a leading headteachers' association said they too had cut

:40:12.:40:14.

Equipment, maintenance, special needs and

:40:15.:40:16.

mental health support were amongst the cuts.

:40:17.:40:18.

The Government insists it is listening.

:40:19.:40:20.

Schools Minister Nick Gibb recently visited Swindon,

:40:21.:40:22.

saying they are keeping funding up while tackling the deficit.

:40:23.:40:26.

We have protected school funding in real

:40:27.:40:30.

terms, we're spending ?40 billion on school funding,

:40:31.:40:33.

this is the highest ever amount that we've spent in this

:40:34.:40:36.

country on our school system, and it's increasing.

:40:37.:40:39.

But for many there's still too little money in the

:40:40.:40:42.

Unions and even the Commons Public Accounts Committee say major

:40:43.:40:48.

That's something Simon and Terry know all

:40:49.:40:56.

about, recently made redundant from their jobs in drama and PE.

:40:57.:40:59.

Nobody ever has a job for life but I felt after 30

:41:00.:41:07.

years of loyalty to one establishment it was very difficult

:41:08.:41:10.

And experienced teachers are often the first to go.

:41:11.:41:19.

I don't think it was any surprise that it was the three of us who were

:41:20.:41:22.

top of the pay scale who were targeted.

:41:23.:41:24.

They say 2.6 teachers needed to go, but 2.6

:41:25.:41:26.

their career, and 2.6 teachers at the top of the scale are two

:41:27.:41:31.

Cuts in subjects were also happening too.

:41:32.:41:42.

Seven out of ten Southwest schools who replied to the survey said they

:41:43.:41:45.

Design, German, drama, music, were the most common GCSEs to go.

:41:46.:41:50.

Schools tried to protect core subjects like

:41:51.:41:52.

The problem is many now say they can't make their

:41:53.:41:58.

We've come inside to Future Space here at the

:41:59.:42:03.

It is a very funky building full of cool

:42:04.:42:06.

and trendy people, and now of

:42:07.:42:08.

Let me introduce you to our guests this

:42:09.:42:12.

They are Sally Apps, principal of the Bristol Metropolitan

:42:13.:42:23.

Academy, in Fishponds, in Bristol, Steve West,

:42:24.:42:25.

the University of the West of England, Robin Head, of the National

:42:26.:42:33.

Union of Teachers in Somerset, and Laura Mayes, the Conservative

:42:34.:42:36.

cabinet member for Education on Wiltshire council.

:42:37.:42:37.

Is your school going to lose money and if so how much?

:42:38.:42:45.

We can't be entirely sure because we keep

:42:46.:42:48.

getting different calculations but it is going to lose out.

:42:49.:42:50.

Our federation of 14 schools will take a

:42:51.:42:53.

Our school accounts for half of that drop.

:42:54.:42:57.

But you've been a successful academy, you are

:42:58.:42:59.

Yes, we have a high deprivation index, we have students

:43:00.:43:05.

from a range of different backgrounds, lots of students who

:43:06.:43:07.

have English as an additional language.

:43:08.:43:09.

And we've gone from the bottom of the city in terms of

:43:10.:43:13.

progress, to the top, in the last seven years.

:43:14.:43:15.

And do you think having a cut to your income threatens that?

:43:16.:43:18.

It makes life very difficult for school leavers who are

:43:19.:43:22.

There is not much fat in the system now.

:43:23.:43:25.

We've already had to do a lot of cutting,

:43:26.:43:27.

a lot of rethinking, had to be quite creative

:43:28.:43:29.

Give me an example of what you may have to reduce.

:43:30.:43:33.

It is difficult to know because we will look at

:43:34.:43:35.

everything, we look at every line of the budget and work out how

:43:36.:43:38.

Within the federation we look at procuring

:43:39.:43:41.

things together for example, sharing resources between us.

:43:42.:43:43.

We make sure that there is no fat in terms of

:43:44.:43:46.

We make sure that our staffing is lean but

:43:47.:43:50.

effective, and that it meets the needs of the kids.

:43:51.:43:52.

OK, let's go to Robin Head from the union.

:43:53.:43:56.

The Government says it's spending more money

:43:57.:43:58.

So they say but we would say that is profoundly

:43:59.:44:08.

dishonest in regard to a

:44:09.:44:10.

lot of those costs that the Government say

:44:11.:44:12.

have been upped in terms of teacher pension payments, which the employer

:44:13.:44:19.

has to pay, apprenticeship levy, for all the staff in the school,

:44:20.:44:23.

which means a lot of that money has disappeared into those kinds of

:44:24.:44:27.

They have also been able to drag out 300...

:44:28.:44:30.

You can't say how much more, you have to

:44:31.:44:33.

The need is there to be met for all students in the

:44:34.:44:37.

But the Government is moving money from inner city schools

:44:38.:44:41.

to country areas where they have been traditionally underfunded so

:44:42.:44:43.

you should be celebrating that in Wiltshire, shouldn't you?

:44:44.:44:47.

You would think that, and I am very proud of

:44:48.:44:52.

our schools in Wiltshire, we are doing a brilliant job, but for

:44:53.:44:57.

instance, the pupil funding for a child on Wiltshire is ?5,200

:44:58.:45:00.

a year and in a London school it's ?12,000

:45:01.:45:02.

per year and the difference there is extraordinary.

:45:03.:45:04.

And you're right in saying the Government are

:45:05.:45:07.

saying that there's more money in the system but the disparity

:45:08.:45:10.

between those two in my mind is patently

:45:11.:45:12.

And even though they put in this new formula

:45:13.:45:18.

Wiltshire schools should have more money taken away from the

:45:19.:45:22.

academy like the ones that Sally runs?

:45:23.:45:25.

I think there should be more money in the pot.

:45:26.:45:31.

Like you say, it's got to be based on need.

:45:32.:45:36.

I'm a great believer in things being lean and not fat

:45:37.:45:39.

and so forth but Wiltshire is the seventh lowest

:45:40.:45:41.

funded authority in

:45:42.:45:42.

So the new formula that has come in has meant

:45:43.:45:48.

that a few schools have got a slight rise, but as Robin says,

:45:49.:45:52.

huge amounts of extra costs are included

:45:53.:45:54.

in that, so the real rise is very small,

:45:55.:45:57.

yet 29 of my schools are

:45:58.:45:58.

OK, I should just tell you that we did try very hard to get

:45:59.:46:04.

someone from the Government on this

:46:05.:46:05.

programme to talk about that but we couldn't find

:46:06.:46:08.

a Conservative MP to come on, or an Education Minister,

:46:09.:46:10.

Steve West, from UWE, just give me your take on this.

:46:11.:46:18.

Are you saying schools are underfunded?

:46:19.:46:21.

If you look round here education seems to

:46:22.:46:24.

Yes, universities are pretty well funded

:46:25.:46:26.

now, but in schools, the way I look at this,

:46:27.:46:29.

this is about the UK's future, about developing future

:46:30.:46:33.

generations to add to our economic power in a global knowledge economy.

:46:34.:46:41.

If we do not get schools funded correctly we will not be able to

:46:42.:46:44.

take our place globally, so this is fundamental to me.

:46:45.:46:47.

This is about getting the right sort of schooling

:46:48.:46:49.

at all levels to give people opportunity for a future which is

:46:50.:46:52.

What I can tell you is all of the growth is going to

:46:53.:46:56.

be in high-tech industries and we need to prepare young people for

:46:57.:46:59.

If schools are underfunded the platform just isn't there to give

:47:00.:47:14.

What the Government might tell you is that in

:47:15.:47:19.

the UK our schools are better funded than France, Italy and Japan, for

:47:20.:47:22.

Well, we want to be the global player.

:47:23.:47:25.

They've mentioned three economies they are, there are a lot

:47:26.:47:27.

more economies that are putting a lot more into schools than we

:47:28.:47:30.

I would argue with the Government if you want a

:47:31.:47:33.

bright future then start getting some of the fundamentals right,

:47:34.:47:36.

because at the moment my concern is we have huge educational

:47:37.:47:39.

inequalities across our cities and in crucial areas,

:47:40.:47:44.

and we've really got a problem, and while some of that

:47:45.:47:47.

can be solved by being more efficient, more effective,

:47:48.:47:49.

multi-academy type approach, where we are joining schools

:47:50.:47:51.

together to get those efficiencies, it's not

:47:52.:47:52.

You run a school where there is high levels of deprivation and you've

:47:53.:47:58.

And of course if you increase public spending you've got

:47:59.:48:01.

to increase taxation, how would that go down with your parents?

:48:02.:48:05.

I think it's true for most parents if you

:48:06.:48:09.

ask them what their priorities would be where the taxes are spent they

:48:10.:48:12.

would say education of their children is high on that list.

:48:13.:48:15.

If it is going into something where you

:48:16.:48:20.

are giving a better service to their children there are few who

:48:21.:48:24.

What about this debate between country schools and inner city

:48:25.:48:29.

schools, you are losing money so country schools can get

:48:30.:48:31.

No, I think honestly to talk about winners

:48:32.:48:35.

and losers in this system is a misnomer.

:48:36.:48:37.

We can see it is coming from one place and

:48:38.:48:46.

going to another but even those schools that are gaining are looking

:48:47.:48:49.

at what they are gaining and saying, this does not feel like what I

:48:50.:48:53.

Sally and the teachers in her school have worked

:48:54.:48:57.

really hard to turn the fortunes of academic achievement

:48:58.:48:58.

Why would you kneecap that by taking large amounts of money

:48:59.:49:03.

away from that to thinly spread through country

:49:04.:49:05.

It's not about taxing the ordinary people in the street.

:49:06.:49:15.

There's a lot of people out there who don't pay

:49:16.:49:18.

That's a different argument for a different

:49:19.:49:20.

But there is also ?320 million being identified for grammar

:49:21.:49:24.

Hang on, we spend ?80 billion per year on

:49:25.:49:27.

300 million quid is neither here nor there.

:49:28.:49:30.

No, but at the same time it's about what you

:49:31.:49:32.

Where it has been going recently is to uncalculated pension costs,

:49:33.:49:39.

NI costs, apprenticeship levies which schools now have to fund, and

:49:40.:49:42.

Laura, you are a Conservative, they wouldn't come in person

:49:43.:49:46.

to defend this, so what have you got say?

:49:47.:49:49.

I'm in violent agreement and I'm not happy

:49:50.:49:53.

with the way things are going educationally in the country.

:49:54.:49:56.

That is one of the reasons I was pleased

:49:57.:49:58.

to have this opportunity to speak out.

:49:59.:50:06.

I agree with you about the grammar schools, we've made it very

:50:07.:50:09.

clear to Justine Greening that it would be an inappropriate policy for

:50:10.:50:12.

So you're not going to defend the Government's position?

:50:13.:50:15.

No, I'm not going to defend the Government on

:50:16.:50:17.

these issues, and particularly this issue of the fairer funding.

:50:18.:50:20.

There are 40 local authorities, I put my

:50:21.:50:22.

name to a letter, to the Prime Minister

:50:23.:50:24.

recently to say that the

:50:25.:50:26.

new funding formula is still incredibly unfair.

:50:27.:50:29.

And because of the way they're capping it it would take

:50:30.:50:31.

ten years for us to make up that space.

:50:32.:50:34.

Successive governments have encouraged more people to go to

:50:35.:50:41.

university but the south-west has fallen behind.

:50:42.:50:45.

Fewer people in this region applied to university than in

:50:46.:50:57.

other parts of the country and in south Bristol the rates are the

:50:58.:51:00.

second worst anywhere in the United Kingdom.

:51:01.:51:02.

Bristol and the south-west are prosperous but there are some deep

:51:03.:51:06.

divisions, the side of the city is less well off, and in educational

:51:07.:51:09.

terms it's a struggle for a long time.

:51:10.:51:11.

Fewer than one in five children growing up around here

:51:12.:51:13.

The contrast with next-door North omerset is

:51:14.:51:19.

Overall, the entire region is lagging behind.

:51:20.:51:24.

32.4% of 18-year-olds in the south-west applying to university,

:51:25.:51:27.

the lowest rate of any region, nationally the average is at 37%,

:51:28.:51:30.

with the highest figure, 46%, being in London.

:51:31.:51:45.

It's one of only two in the South Bristol

:51:46.:51:49.

Going on to higher education is encouraged but most pupils don't.

:51:50.:51:53.

I felt as though I didn't need to do it.

:51:54.:51:56.

It seems too daunting and it is really expensive.

:51:57.:51:59.

I thought I would finish my education here and then

:52:00.:52:01.

I didn't feel like university was the best

:52:02.:52:08.

option for me at all because I don't really enjoy school.

:52:09.:52:10.

I would like to go to university but the line of

:52:11.:52:22.

work I'd like to go into within the industry isn't

:52:23.:52:26.

necessary so I feel like it wouldn't be worth spending

:52:27.:52:29.

The school tries to raise aspirations among pupils.

:52:30.:52:34.

Most of whose parents went no further

:52:35.:52:35.

There are relatively high levels of low paid employment.

:52:36.:52:59.

in an apprenticeship. Plenty of interest that this

:53:00.:53:09.

apprenticeship event. The new skills Academy offers for occasional

:53:10.:53:15.

training which may be best for some. There is a sense of low aspiration

:53:16.:53:19.

in this part of the city compared to other parts of the city, but the

:53:20.:53:24.

debate has been the wrong debate about participation in higher

:53:25.:53:27.

education, it has been a debate which focuses on going to

:53:28.:53:31.

university. For many individuals that will not be the right place for

:53:32.:53:36.

them to go to. To explain why she went to university is this person.

:53:37.:53:43.

The big unknown is the fear of university, how I would afford to

:53:44.:53:47.

pay for that and how much debt I would be in. That led me to think I

:53:48.:53:54.

would go for an apprenticeship and my employer would pay for my course.

:53:55.:53:58.

Plenty on offer for those who want to follow in her footsteps but many

:53:59.:54:01.

believe Britain will need to raise its game, especially post Frexit.

:54:02.:54:07.

The Government has a key role. They have got to get to grips. --

:54:08.:54:17.

especially post Brexit. The report card for her constituency

:54:18.:54:25.

and the entire region, could, probably must, do better.

:54:26.:54:30.

Let us pick up on some of those issues. Steve West, you are vice

:54:31.:54:38.

Chancellor here at UWE, your route into higher education was not

:54:39.:54:43.

typical. I feel is most of my GCSEs and A-levels and I read to them then

:54:44.:54:47.

I went to further education then I did a part-time degree. Not the

:54:48.:54:51.

classic approach to becoming vice Chancellor in a university. And you

:54:52.:55:00.

are a surgeon as well. Yes, so I worked hard, but fairly late. What

:55:01.:55:04.

would you say to those students in South Bristol who are not aspiring

:55:05.:55:09.

to become students? The first thing is believe in yourself. There is

:55:10.:55:12.

nothing you cannot do. But you need to make sure that you have the

:55:13.:55:16.

ambition and that you are being signposted. For as we work in the

:55:17.:55:20.

South Bristol school is very high. We sent students, outreach staff

:55:21.:55:34.

then, to try and raise aspiration. This is about giving young people

:55:35.:55:36.

choices. It is about believing in them. Every single child has a

:55:37.:55:37.

talent. What we have to do is find talent. What we have to do is find

:55:38.:55:41.

it and work with it. That is important. How many of you children

:55:42.:55:43.

would aspire to go to university from a school in the deprived area

:55:44.:55:48.

that you run? Many students aspire to university. They all aspire to

:55:49.:55:53.

The number of things. We cannot The number of things. We cannot

:55:54.:55:58.

ignore the layers of deprivation, and the ways in which being deprived

:55:59.:56:03.

in terms of your experience, you opportunity, what that means in

:56:04.:56:07.

terms of what you can access, what you believe in yourself, sometimes

:56:08.:56:12.

the greatest enemy of that are adults in your life who do not

:56:13.:56:15.

believe you can do that, sometimes that is your teachers. It is

:56:16.:56:20.

important that teachers and support staff have a strong sense that

:56:21.:56:23.

students can go to university and help them to get there and do not

:56:24.:56:27.

have a limit on the aspiration. Do you accept that criticism of

:56:28.:56:31.

teachers? I do not think it is teachers necessarily, I think it is

:56:32.:56:35.

that is stratified in terms of that is stratified in terms of

:56:36.:56:38.

made to jump through hoops which made to jump through hoops which

:56:39.:56:42.

require them to teach in a certain way, and deliver exam results, but

:56:43.:56:48.

mitigates against the aspiration of white working-class boys and ethnic

:56:49.:56:54.

minorities. That knocks on to the aspiration about going forward. My

:56:55.:56:59.

experience as the reality is that that kind of target driven culture

:57:00.:57:04.

means that we absolutely have to have those high expectations. Maybe

:57:05.:57:08.

a new school, but there are statistics in this country which say

:57:09.:57:13.

that a lot of children disappear from school rules just about the

:57:14.:57:16.

time GCSE comes up because those children will hold back the schools

:57:17.:57:20.

disappear from schools, maybe not in disappear from schools, maybe not in

:57:21.:57:23.

your school, but it does happen because of statistics. You need to

:57:24.:57:29.

make the point about whether university is the right thing. What

:57:30.:57:36.

is important is to find the right path. Identify it early, get to do

:57:37.:57:40.

the right course, whether an apprenticeship, a degree, but this

:57:41.:57:46.

idea that 50% of people are meant to go on to university was a false

:57:47.:57:52.

promise. We are doing to giddy apprenticeships, working with

:57:53.:57:56.

further education colleges and business, that is an entire world

:57:57.:57:59.

alongside what we do with the university, and people should not

:58:00.:58:04.

think about universities as being academic and apprenticeships being

:58:05.:58:05.

vocational, in this modern world it vocational, in this modern world it

:58:06.:58:09.

is irrelevant. Our programmes are about ensuring that young people and

:58:10.:58:13.

all the people returning to university can get employment in the

:58:14.:58:16.

right alias. That has to start in schools.

:58:17.:58:22.

There are disillusioned budgets out there who spent ?27,000 plus on a

:58:23.:58:26.

degree and find it is not getting them a job. Everybody has got a

:58:27.:58:36.

degree. In an economy increasingly focusing on high technology

:58:37.:58:38.

environment that is tough. The jobs that are being created are not the

:58:39.:58:42.

middle management jobs anymore. Highly skilled jobs. Then at the

:58:43.:58:49.

other end, the Labour jobs that then require people to reinvent robots

:58:50.:58:56.

that can do it for us. Our -- you are offering 600 courses, there must

:58:57.:59:01.

be some of those that give a few employment opportunities. Our

:59:02.:59:06.

statistics will tell you that over 95% of our students, 96% of our

:59:07.:59:10.

students, six months after graduation are in employment, that

:59:11.:59:18.

is a good statistic. Over 75% are in graduate level jobs. That is an

:59:19.:59:22.

impressive statistic. The reason we get those statistics is because we

:59:23.:59:26.

work hard to make sure that in every degree, no matter what the subject,

:59:27.:59:30.

we are focused on employment, getting them into graduate jobs. The

:59:31.:59:36.

children that you teach and lead, how much would that ?27,000 bill

:59:37.:59:44.

deterrent them? It really does. If you have grown up in poverty the

:59:45.:59:47.

reality of facing more debt is fighting for you and your family.

:59:48.:59:55.

Let us not ignore the fact that job security, to go into a job where you

:59:56.:59:59.

know what you are going to get paid, you are going to actually get it...

:00:00.:00:05.

We need people to do every day work. It needs to be choice. What we need

:00:06.:00:11.

to see is that children understand the choices available. If you want

:00:12.:00:15.

florist, whatever it is, as long as florist, whatever it is, as long as

:00:16.:00:19.

you know how to do it and know that you have a choice that is imported.

:00:20.:00:23.

of choice. We have to leave it of choice. We have to leave it

:00:24.:00:27.

there. On that note, that is really had to leave things for this week.

:00:28.:00:38.

My thanks to everybody here at UWE for keeping us occupied and

:00:39.:00:40.

entertain this week. My thanks also to Steve West, Sally Apps, Laura,

:00:41.:00:51.

and Robin. We are back in two weeks. In the meantime you can

:00:52.:01:04.

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

:01:05.:01:06.

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

:01:07.:01:10.

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

:01:11.:01:13.

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

:01:14.:01:25.

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

:01:26.:01:29.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

:01:30.:01:39.

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

:01:40.:01:44.

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

:01:45.:01:50.

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

:01:51.:01:55.

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

:01:56.:02:02.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

:02:03.:02:12.

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

:02:13.:02:15.

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

:02:16.:02:21.

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

:02:22.:02:26.

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

:02:27.:02:29.

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

:02:30.:02:36.

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

:02:37.:02:41.

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

:02:42.:02:44.

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

:02:45.:02:49.

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

:02:50.:02:55.

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

:02:56.:03:00.

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

:03:01.:03:03.

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

:03:04.:03:11.

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

:03:12.:03:15.

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

:03:16.:03:21.

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

:03:22.:03:26.

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

:03:27.:03:31.

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

:03:32.:03:37.

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

:03:38.:03:41.

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

:03:42.:03:49.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

:03:50.:03:53.

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

:03:54.:03:57.

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

:03:58.:04:01.

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

:04:02.:04:10.

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

:04:11.:04:14.

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

:04:15.:04:17.

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

:04:18.:04:23.

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

:04:24.:04:29.

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

:04:30.:04:34.

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

:04:35.:04:38.

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

:04:39.:04:43.

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

:04:44.:04:47.

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

:04:48.:04:51.

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

:04:52.:04:56.

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

:04:57.:05:01.

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

:05:02.:05:07.

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

:05:08.:05:12.

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

:05:13.:05:15.

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

:05:16.:05:20.

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

:05:21.:05:28.

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

:05:29.:05:32.

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

:05:33.:05:37.

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

:05:38.:05:42.

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

:05:43.:05:49.

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

:05:50.:05:54.

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

:05:55.:06:00.

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

:06:01.:06:05.

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

:06:06.:06:10.

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

:06:11.:06:16.

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

:06:17.:06:24.

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

:06:25.:06:31.

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

:06:32.:06:36.

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

:06:37.:06:42.

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

:06:43.:06:49.

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

:06:50.:06:56.

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

:06:57.:07:03.

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

:07:04.:07:08.

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

:07:09.:07:13.

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

:07:14.:07:19.

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

:07:20.:07:23.

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

:07:24.:07:27.

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

:07:28.:07:31.

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

:07:32.:07:37.

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

:07:38.:07:41.

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

:07:42.:07:48.

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

:07:49.:07:53.

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

:07:54.:07:57.

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

:07:58.:08:02.

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

:08:03.:08:06.

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

:08:07.:08:14.

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

:08:15.:08:18.

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

:08:19.:08:23.

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

:08:24.:08:29.

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

:08:30.:08:34.

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

:08:35.:08:36.

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

:08:37.:08:41.

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

:08:42.:08:45.

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

:08:46.:08:50.

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

:08:51.:08:56.

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

:08:57.:08:59.

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

:09:00.:09:05.

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

:09:06.:09:09.

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

:09:10.:09:14.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

:09:15.:09:17.

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

:09:18.:09:23.

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

:09:24.:09:26.

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

:09:27.:09:31.

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

:09:32.:09:37.

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

:09:38.:09:39.

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

:09:40.:09:46.

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

:09:47.:09:50.

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

:09:51.:09:53.

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

:09:54.:09:58.

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

:09:59.:10:01.

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

:10:02.:10:06.

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

:10:07.:10:11.

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

:10:12.:10:15.

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

:10:16.:10:20.

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

:10:21.:10:24.

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

:10:25.:10:28.

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

:10:29.:10:34.

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

:10:35.:10:38.

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

:10:39.:10:44.

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

:10:45.:10:48.

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

:10:49.:10:54.

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

:10:55.:10:57.

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

:10:58.:11:03.

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

:11:04.:11:07.

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

:11:08.:11:12.

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

:11:13.:11:18.

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

:11:19.:11:23.

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

:11:24.:11:27.

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

:11:28.:11:31.

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

:11:32.:11:35.

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

:11:36.:11:41.

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

:11:42.:11:45.

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

:11:46.:11:52.

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

:11:53.:11:55.

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

:11:56.:12:02.

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

:12:03.:12:08.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

:12:09.:12:14.

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

:12:15.:12:17.

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

:12:18.:12:25.

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

:12:26.:12:31.

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

:12:32.:12:36.

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

:12:37.:12:42.

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

:12:43.:12:46.

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

:12:47.:12:49.

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

:12:50.:12:54.

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

:12:55.:12:58.

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

:12:59.:13:02.

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

:13:03.:13:08.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

:13:09.:13:13.

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

:13:14.:13:17.

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

:13:18.:13:21.

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

:13:22.:13:27.

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

:13:28.:13:31.

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

:13:32.:13:36.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

:13:37.:13:43.

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

:13:44.:13:48.

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

:13:49.:13:52.

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

:13:53.:14:20.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

:14:21.:14:23.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

:14:24.:14:27.

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"

:14:28.:14:52.

I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.

:14:53.:14:56.

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth MP, former Conservative Party leader Lord Michael Howard and John Curtice. The Political Panel consists of Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.


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