02/04/2017 Sunday Politics West


02/04/2017

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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

:00:40.:00:42.

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

:00:43.:00:47.

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

:00:48.:00:52.

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

:00:53.:00:56.

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

:00:57.:01:01.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

:01:02.:01:04.

And then the West, and who's going up and who's going down?

:01:05.:01:15.

And then the West, and education special. We are talking about

:01:16.:01:17.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

:01:18.:01:20.

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

:01:29.:01:30.

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

:01:31.:01:33.

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

:01:34.:01:38.

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

:01:39.:01:41.

of a shock. The guidelines propose

:01:42.:01:43.

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

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deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

:01:50.:01:52.

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

:01:53.:01:57.

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

:01:58.:01:59.

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

:02:00.:02:06.

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

:02:07.:02:11.

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

:02:12.:02:16.

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

:02:17.:02:18.

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

:02:19.:02:21.

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

:02:22.:02:23.

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

:02:24.:02:27.

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

:02:28.:02:38.

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

:02:39.:02:43.

Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

:02:44.:02:47.

and again is that at different points individual countries can

:02:48.:02:52.

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

:02:53.:02:59.

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

:03:00.:03:04.

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

:03:05.:03:10.

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

:03:11.:03:19.

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

:03:20.:03:22.

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

:03:23.:03:27.

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

:03:28.:03:33.

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

:03:34.:03:36.

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

:03:37.:03:42.

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

:03:43.:03:50.

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

:03:51.:03:57.

10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

:03:58.:04:00.

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

:04:01.:04:05.

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

:04:06.:04:11.

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

:04:12.:04:16.

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

:04:17.:04:19.

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

:04:20.:04:25.

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

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it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

:04:31.:04:34.

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

:04:35.:04:39.

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

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Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

:04:45.:04:49.

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

:04:50.:04:52.

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

:04:53.:04:57.

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

:04:58.:05:03.

For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

:05:04.:05:08.

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

:05:09.:05:13.

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

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after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

:05:18.:05:24.

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

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much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

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still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

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next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

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empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

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got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

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will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

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about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

:06:01.:06:05.

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

:06:06.:06:09.

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

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Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

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changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

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months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

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up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

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the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

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journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

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a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

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control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

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involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

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in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

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from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

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of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

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where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

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from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

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sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

:07:12.:07:21.

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

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to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

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hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

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all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

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of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

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proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

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at the same time. It also mentioned the word

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"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

:07:51.:07:52.

would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

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and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

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to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

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policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

:08:03.:08:08.

information in the same way as we would as a member,

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so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

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a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

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in the way that we have. That night, the

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Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

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Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

:08:23.:08:28.

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

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actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

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suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

:08:41.:08:55.

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

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if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

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as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

:08:57.:08:56.

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

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of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

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business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

:09:03.:09:05.

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

:09:06.:09:08.

law to change later, It is not without its critics

:09:09.:09:10.

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

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it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

:09:16.:09:17.

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

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we are doing so from a position where we have the same

:09:25.:09:27.

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

:09:28.:09:29.

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

:09:30.:09:35.

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

:09:36.:09:37.

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

:09:38.:09:44.

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

:09:45.:09:47.

they were not allowed Great(!)

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so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

:09:51.:09:57.

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

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Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

:10:01.:10:03.

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

:10:04.:10:06.

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

:10:07.:10:12.

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

:10:13.:10:15.

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

:10:16.:10:18.

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

:10:19.:10:21.

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

:10:22.:10:30.

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

:10:31.:10:35.

already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

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the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

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elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

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are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

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celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

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by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

:11:04.:11:11.

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

:11:12.:11:15.

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

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phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

:11:23.:11:28.

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

:11:29.:11:33.

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

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might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

:11:38.:11:43.

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

:11:44.:11:47.

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

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Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

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of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

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remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

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A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

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that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

:12:12.:12:17.

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

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wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

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what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

:12:30.:12:33.

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

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and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

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that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

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is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

:12:49.:12:56.

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

:12:57.:13:01.

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

:13:02.:13:07.

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

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But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

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cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

:13:22.:13:24.

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

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The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

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after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

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remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

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the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

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depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

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getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

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judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

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know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

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then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

:14:07.:14:13.

something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

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stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

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and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

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to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

:14:27.:14:31.

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

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yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

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will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

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not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

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another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

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comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

:14:53.:14:58.

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

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that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

:15:07.:15:10.

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

:15:11.:15:15.

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

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negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

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the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

:15:28.:15:32.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

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trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

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important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

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the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

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having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

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think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

:16:01.:16:07.

the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

:16:08.:16:11.

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

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get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

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because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

:16:22.:16:29.

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

:16:30.:16:33.

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

:16:34.:16:38.

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

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everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

:16:44.:16:46.

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

:16:47.:16:51.

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

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in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

:16:56.:17:00.

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

:17:01.:17:05.

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

:17:06.:17:11.

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

:17:12.:17:16.

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

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week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

:17:23.:17:25.

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

:17:26.:17:29.

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

:17:30.:17:34.

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

:17:35.:17:38.

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

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This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

:17:50.:17:51.

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

:17:52.:17:54.

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

:17:55.:17:57.

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

:17:58.:18:03.

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

:18:04.:18:09.

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

:18:10.:18:13.

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

:18:14.:18:18.

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

:18:19.:18:23.

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

:18:24.:18:27.

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

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morning. Although sometimes it seems

:18:30.:18:32.

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

:18:33.:18:34.

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

:18:35.:18:35.

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

:18:36.:18:38.

up for grabs. Local elections take place

:18:39.:18:42.

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

:18:43.:18:44.

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

:18:45.:18:49.

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

:18:50.:18:56.

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

:18:57.:19:02.

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

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and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

:19:07.:19:09.

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

:19:10.:19:16.

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

:19:17.:19:18.

councils are being contested, many of them affected

:19:19.:19:21.

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

:19:22.:19:23.

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

:19:24.:19:26.

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

:19:27.:19:31.

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

:19:32.:19:38.

though independent candidates currently hold

:19:39.:19:39.

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

:19:40.:19:42.

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

:19:43.:19:44.

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

:19:45.:19:49.

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

:19:50.:19:52.

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

:19:53.:19:59.

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

:20:00.:20:01.

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

:20:02.:20:06.

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

:20:07.:20:08.

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

:20:09.:20:11.

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

:20:12.:20:14.

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

:20:15.:20:23.

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

:20:24.:20:25.

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

:20:26.:20:28.

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

:20:29.:20:30.

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

:20:31.:20:38.

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

:20:39.:20:42.

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

:20:43.:20:46.

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

:20:47.:20:51.

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

:20:52.:20:56.

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

:20:57.:20:59.

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

:21:00.:21:03.

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

:21:04.:21:15.

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

:21:16.:21:17.

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

:21:18.:21:20.

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

:21:21.:21:23.

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

:21:24.:21:27.

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

:21:28.:21:31.

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

:21:32.:21:35.

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

:21:36.:21:39.

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

:21:40.:21:43.

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

:21:44.:21:47.

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

:21:48.:21:55.

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

:21:56.:21:57.

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

:21:58.:22:01.

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

:22:02.:22:05.

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

:22:06.:22:09.

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

:22:10.:22:12.

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

:22:13.:22:16.

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

:22:17.:22:21.

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

:22:22.:22:52.

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

:22:53.:22:56.

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

:22:57.:22:57.

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

:22:58.:23:00.

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

:23:01.:23:03.

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

:23:04.:23:05.

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

:23:06.:23:08.

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

:23:09.:23:11.

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

:23:12.:23:13.

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

:23:14.:23:16.

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

:23:17.:23:18.

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

:23:19.:23:21.

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

:23:22.:23:27.

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

:23:28.:23:31.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

:23:32.:23:36.

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

:23:37.:23:43.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

:23:44.:23:48.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

:23:49.:23:54.

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

:23:55.:23:57.

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

:23:58.:24:03.

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

:24:04.:24:07.

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

:24:08.:24:11.

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

:24:12.:24:15.

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

:24:16.:24:24.

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

:24:25.:24:26.

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

:24:27.:24:30.

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

:24:31.:24:34.

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

:24:35.:24:38.

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

:24:39.:24:43.

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

:24:44.:24:47.

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

:24:48.:24:53.

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

:24:54.:24:56.

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

:24:57.:25:03.

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

:25:04.:25:06.

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

:25:07.:25:12.

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

:25:13.:25:17.

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

:25:18.:25:22.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

:25:23.:25:24.

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

:25:25.:25:40.

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

:25:41.:25:43.

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

:25:44.:25:45.

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

:25:46.:25:47.

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

:25:48.:25:50.

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

:25:51.:25:57.

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

:25:58.:26:00.

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

:26:01.:26:06.

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

:26:07.:26:12.

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

:26:13.:26:16.

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

:26:17.:26:20.

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

:26:21.:26:27.

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

:26:28.:26:34.

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

:26:35.:26:38.

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

:26:39.:26:44.

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

:26:45.:26:50.

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

:26:51.:26:55.

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

:26:56.:27:00.

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

:27:01.:27:04.

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

:27:05.:27:07.

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

:27:08.:27:12.

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

:27:13.:27:15.

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

:27:16.:27:19.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

:27:20.:27:24.

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

:27:25.:27:28.

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

:27:29.:27:32.

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

:27:33.:27:39.

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

:27:40.:27:44.

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

:27:45.:27:50.

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

:27:51.:28:10.

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

:28:11.:28:14.

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

:28:15.:28:16.

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

:28:17.:28:18.

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

:28:19.:28:20.

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

:28:21.:28:22.

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

:28:23.:28:25.

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

:28:26.:28:27.

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

:28:28.:28:32.

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

:28:33.:28:38.

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

:28:39.:28:43.

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

:28:44.:28:47.

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

:28:48.:28:49.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

:28:50.:28:52.

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

:28:53.:28:55.

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

:28:56.:28:57.

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

:28:58.:29:02.

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

:29:03.:29:04.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

:29:05.:29:09.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

:29:10.:29:11.

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

:29:12.:29:13.

and by the way, that is another part of

:29:14.:29:15.

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

:29:16.:29:19.

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

:29:20.:29:25.

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

:29:26.:29:27.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

:29:28.:29:33.

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

:29:34.:29:35.

concerns about the way the country is run.

:29:36.:29:40.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:29:41.:29:45.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

:29:46.:29:50.

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

:29:51.:29:55.

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

:29:56.:30:02.

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

:30:03.:30:06.

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

:30:07.:30:10.

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

:30:11.:30:15.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

:30:16.:30:19.

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

:30:20.:30:24.

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

:30:25.:30:33.

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

:30:34.:30:40.

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

:30:41.:30:47.

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

:30:48.:30:55.

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

:30:56.:30:59.

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

:31:00.:31:04.

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

:31:05.:31:09.

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

:31:10.:31:16.

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

:31:17.:31:23.

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

:31:24.:31:26.

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

:31:27.:31:30.

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

:31:31.:31:36.

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

:31:37.:31:43.

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

:31:44.:31:47.

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

:31:48.:31:51.

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

:31:52.:31:59.

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

:32:00.:32:04.

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

:32:05.:32:09.

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

:32:10.:32:17.

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

:32:18.:32:22.

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

:32:23.:32:28.

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

:32:29.:32:32.

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

:32:33.:32:37.

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

:32:38.:32:41.

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

:32:42.:32:46.

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

:32:47.:32:51.

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

:32:52.:32:55.

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

:32:56.:33:01.

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

:33:02.:33:06.

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

:33:07.:33:14.

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

:33:15.:33:18.

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

:33:19.:33:25.

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

:33:26.:33:35.

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

:33:36.:33:39.

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

:33:40.:33:44.

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

:33:45.:33:50.

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

:33:51.:33:56.

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

:33:57.:34:08.

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:09.:34:11.

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

:34:12.:34:16.

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

:34:17.:34:26.

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

:34:27.:34:31.

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

:34:32.:34:36.

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

:34:37.:34:41.

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

:34:42.:34:47.

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

:34:48.:34:53.

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

:34:54.:34:59.

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

:35:00.:35:04.

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

:35:05.:35:08.

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

:35:09.:35:12.

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

:35:13.:35:16.

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

:35:17.:35:22.

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

:35:23.:35:28.

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

:35:29.:35:30.

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

:35:31.:35:36.

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

:35:37.:35:40.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

:35:41.:35:44.

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

:35:45.:35:48.

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

:35:49.:35:53.

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

:35:54.:36:00.

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

:36:01.:36:04.

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

:36:05.:36:08.

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

:36:09.:36:16.

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

:36:17.:36:23.

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

:36:24.:36:27.

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

:36:28.:36:30.

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

:36:31.:36:34.

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

:36:35.:36:40.

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

:36:41.:36:45.

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

:36:46.:36:50.

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

:36:51.:36:54.

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

:36:55.:36:58.

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

:36:59.:37:01.

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

:37:02.:37:05.

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

:37:06.:37:08.

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

:37:09.:37:16.

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

:37:17.:37:21.

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

:37:22.:37:26.

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

:37:27.:37:29.

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

:37:30.:37:35.

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

:37:36.:37:40.

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

:37:41.:37:43.

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

:37:44.:37:51.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the glorious West

:37:52.:38:03.

A slightly unusual programme from us today.

:38:04.:38:08.

We're not talking about Brexit in any shape or

:38:09.:38:11.

We are discussing education, education and then education.

:38:12.:38:14.

We are at the University of the West of

:38:15.:38:16.

England where there are 28,000 students studying.

:38:17.:38:19.

Our first discussion is about school funding.

:38:20.:38:24.

Some schools will get more money, others less.

:38:25.:38:29.

But they are all saying it's simply not enough.

:38:30.:38:35.

Schools across the West say they are under pressure.

:38:36.:38:42.

The Government is introducing a new system of funding

:38:43.:38:44.

While this class learns about Dickens, the headteacher

:38:45.:38:56.

is getting ready for financial hard times.

:38:57.:39:00.

Over 20,000 secondary school students will lose as a result of

:39:01.:39:08.

When you consider that as a school we sit in

:39:09.:39:13.

one of the lowest funded counties, to be losing

:39:14.:39:15.

2.5%, that simply takes the

:39:16.:39:17.

meaning out of the term fair when associated with fairer funding.

:39:18.:39:30.

The new formula is only part of the problem.

:39:31.:39:31.

Even schools which gain under the new proposal are worried

:39:32.:39:34.

because rising costs will be more than the increased funding.

:39:35.:39:37.

We've been looking at all the usual strategies that other schools have

:39:38.:39:39.

done, looking at cutting support staff significantly,

:39:40.:39:42.

absence of development projects, maintenance is cut to the bare

:39:43.:39:45.

minimum for safeguarding health and safety but nothing more than that.

:39:46.:39:50.

The most painful cut, a reduction in teaching time at A-level.

:39:51.:39:53.

We are reducing, for example, five hours for

:39:54.:40:03.

A-level teaching per week, to four hours per subject.

:40:04.:40:06.

Nine in ten schools in the south-west who responded to a

:40:07.:40:11.

survey by a leading headteachers' association said they too had cut

:40:12.:40:14.

Equipment, maintenance, special needs and

:40:15.:40:16.

mental health support were amongst the cuts.

:40:17.:40:18.

The Government insists it is listening.

:40:19.:40:20.

Schools Minister Nick Gibb recently visited Swindon,

:40:21.:40:22.

saying they are keeping funding up while tackling the deficit.

:40:23.:40:26.

We have protected school funding in real

:40:27.:40:30.

terms, we're spending ?40 billion on school funding,

:40:31.:40:33.

this is the highest ever amount that we've spent in this

:40:34.:40:36.

country on our school system, and it's increasing.

:40:37.:40:39.

But for many there's still too little money in the

:40:40.:40:42.

Unions and even the Commons Public Accounts Committee say major

:40:43.:40:48.

That's something Simon and Terry know all

:40:49.:40:56.

about, recently made redundant from their jobs in drama and PE.

:40:57.:40:59.

Nobody ever has a job for life but I felt after 30

:41:00.:41:07.

years of loyalty to one establishment it was very difficult

:41:08.:41:10.

And experienced teachers are often the first to go.

:41:11.:41:19.

I don't think it was any surprise that it was the three of us who were

:41:20.:41:22.

top of the pay scale who were targeted.

:41:23.:41:24.

They say 2.6 teachers needed to go, but 2.6

:41:25.:41:26.

their career, and 2.6 teachers at the top of the scale are two

:41:27.:41:31.

Cuts in subjects were also happening too.

:41:32.:41:42.

Seven out of ten Southwest schools who replied to the survey said they

:41:43.:41:45.

Design, German, drama, music, were the most common GCSEs to go.

:41:46.:41:50.

Schools tried to protect core subjects like

:41:51.:41:52.

The problem is many now say they can't make their

:41:53.:41:58.

We've come inside to Future Space here at the

:41:59.:42:03.

It is a very funky building full of cool

:42:04.:42:06.

and trendy people, and now of

:42:07.:42:08.

Let me introduce you to our guests this

:42:09.:42:12.

They are Sally Apps, principal of the Bristol Metropolitan

:42:13.:42:23.

Academy, in Fishponds, in Bristol, Steve West,

:42:24.:42:25.

the University of the West of England, Robin Head, of the National

:42:26.:42:33.

Union of Teachers in Somerset, and Laura Mayes, the Conservative

:42:34.:42:36.

cabinet member for Education on Wiltshire council.

:42:37.:42:37.

Is your school going to lose money and if so how much?

:42:38.:42:45.

We can't be entirely sure because we keep

:42:46.:42:48.

getting different calculations but it is going to lose out.

:42:49.:42:50.

Our federation of 14 schools will take a

:42:51.:42:53.

Our school accounts for half of that drop.

:42:54.:42:57.

But you've been a successful academy, you are

:42:58.:42:59.

Yes, we have a high deprivation index, we have students

:43:00.:43:05.

from a range of different backgrounds, lots of students who

:43:06.:43:07.

have English as an additional language.

:43:08.:43:09.

And we've gone from the bottom of the city in terms of

:43:10.:43:13.

progress, to the top, in the last seven years.

:43:14.:43:15.

And do you think having a cut to your income threatens that?

:43:16.:43:18.

It makes life very difficult for school leavers who are

:43:19.:43:22.

There is not much fat in the system now.

:43:23.:43:25.

We've already had to do a lot of cutting,

:43:26.:43:27.

a lot of rethinking, had to be quite creative

:43:28.:43:29.

Give me an example of what you may have to reduce.

:43:30.:43:33.

It is difficult to know because we will look at

:43:34.:43:35.

everything, we look at every line of the budget and work out how

:43:36.:43:38.

Within the federation we look at procuring

:43:39.:43:41.

things together for example, sharing resources between us.

:43:42.:43:43.

We make sure that there is no fat in terms of

:43:44.:43:46.

We make sure that our staffing is lean but

:43:47.:43:50.

effective, and that it meets the needs of the kids.

:43:51.:43:52.

OK, let's go to Robin Head from the union.

:43:53.:43:56.

The Government says it's spending more money

:43:57.:43:58.

So they say but we would say that is profoundly

:43:59.:44:08.

dishonest in regard to a

:44:09.:44:10.

lot of those costs that the Government say

:44:11.:44:12.

have been upped in terms of teacher pension payments, which the employer

:44:13.:44:19.

has to pay, apprenticeship levy, for all the staff in the school,

:44:20.:44:23.

which means a lot of that money has disappeared into those kinds of

:44:24.:44:27.

They have also been able to drag out 300...

:44:28.:44:30.

You can't say how much more, you have to

:44:31.:44:33.

The need is there to be met for all students in the

:44:34.:44:37.

But the Government is moving money from inner city schools

:44:38.:44:41.

to country areas where they have been traditionally underfunded so

:44:42.:44:43.

you should be celebrating that in Wiltshire, shouldn't you?

:44:44.:44:47.

You would think that, and I am very proud of

:44:48.:44:52.

our schools in Wiltshire, we are doing a brilliant job, but for

:44:53.:44:57.

instance, the pupil funding for a child on Wiltshire is ?5,200

:44:58.:45:00.

a year and in a London school it's ?12,000

:45:01.:45:02.

per year and the difference there is extraordinary.

:45:03.:45:04.

And you're right in saying the Government are

:45:05.:45:07.

saying that there's more money in the system but the disparity

:45:08.:45:10.

between those two in my mind is patently

:45:11.:45:12.

And even though they put in this new formula

:45:13.:45:18.

Wiltshire schools should have more money taken away from the

:45:19.:45:22.

academy like the ones that Sally runs?

:45:23.:45:25.

I think there should be more money in the pot.

:45:26.:45:31.

Like you say, it's got to be based on need.

:45:32.:45:36.

I'm a great believer in things being lean and not fat

:45:37.:45:39.

and so forth but Wiltshire is the seventh lowest

:45:40.:45:41.

funded authority in

:45:42.:45:42.

So the new formula that has come in has meant

:45:43.:45:48.

that a few schools have got a slight rise, but as Robin says,

:45:49.:45:52.

huge amounts of extra costs are included

:45:53.:45:54.

in that, so the real rise is very small,

:45:55.:45:57.

yet 29 of my schools are

:45:58.:45:58.

OK, I should just tell you that we did try very hard to get

:45:59.:46:04.

someone from the Government on this

:46:05.:46:05.

programme to talk about that but we couldn't find

:46:06.:46:08.

a Conservative MP to come on, or an Education Minister,

:46:09.:46:10.

Steve West, from UWE, just give me your take on this.

:46:11.:46:18.

Are you saying schools are underfunded?

:46:19.:46:21.

If you look round here education seems to

:46:22.:46:24.

Yes, universities are pretty well funded

:46:25.:46:26.

now, but in schools, the way I look at this,

:46:27.:46:29.

this is about the UK's future, about developing future

:46:30.:46:33.

generations to add to our economic power in a global knowledge economy.

:46:34.:46:41.

If we do not get schools funded correctly we will not be able to

:46:42.:46:44.

take our place globally, so this is fundamental to me.

:46:45.:46:47.

This is about getting the right sort of schooling

:46:48.:46:49.

at all levels to give people opportunity for a future which is

:46:50.:46:52.

What I can tell you is all of the growth is going to

:46:53.:46:56.

be in high-tech industries and we need to prepare young people for

:46:57.:46:59.

If schools are underfunded the platform just isn't there to give

:47:00.:47:14.

What the Government might tell you is that in

:47:15.:47:19.

the UK our schools are better funded than France, Italy and Japan, for

:47:20.:47:22.

Well, we want to be the global player.

:47:23.:47:25.

They've mentioned three economies they are, there are a lot

:47:26.:47:27.

more economies that are putting a lot more into schools than we

:47:28.:47:30.

I would argue with the Government if you want a

:47:31.:47:33.

bright future then start getting some of the fundamentals right,

:47:34.:47:36.

because at the moment my concern is we have huge educational

:47:37.:47:39.

inequalities across our cities and in crucial areas,

:47:40.:47:44.

and we've really got a problem, and while some of that

:47:45.:47:47.

can be solved by being more efficient, more effective,

:47:48.:47:49.

multi-academy type approach, where we are joining schools

:47:50.:47:51.

together to get those efficiencies, it's not

:47:52.:47:52.

You run a school where there is high levels of deprivation and you've

:47:53.:47:58.

And of course if you increase public spending you've got

:47:59.:48:01.

to increase taxation, how would that go down with your parents?

:48:02.:48:05.

I think it's true for most parents if you

:48:06.:48:09.

ask them what their priorities would be where the taxes are spent they

:48:10.:48:12.

would say education of their children is high on that list.

:48:13.:48:15.

If it is going into something where you

:48:16.:48:20.

are giving a better service to their children there are few who

:48:21.:48:24.

What about this debate between country schools and inner city

:48:25.:48:29.

schools, you are losing money so country schools can get

:48:30.:48:31.

No, I think honestly to talk about winners

:48:32.:48:35.

and losers in this system is a misnomer.

:48:36.:48:37.

We can see it is coming from one place and

:48:38.:48:46.

going to another but even those schools that are gaining are looking

:48:47.:48:49.

at what they are gaining and saying, this does not feel like what I

:48:50.:48:53.

Sally and the teachers in her school have worked

:48:54.:48:57.

really hard to turn the fortunes of academic achievement

:48:58.:48:58.

Why would you kneecap that by taking large amounts of money

:48:59.:49:03.

away from that to thinly spread through country

:49:04.:49:05.

It's not about taxing the ordinary people in the street.

:49:06.:49:15.

There's a lot of people out there who don't pay

:49:16.:49:18.

That's a different argument for a different

:49:19.:49:20.

But there is also ?320 million being identified for grammar

:49:21.:49:24.

Hang on, we spend ?80 billion per year on

:49:25.:49:27.

300 million quid is neither here nor there.

:49:28.:49:30.

No, but at the same time it's about what you

:49:31.:49:32.

Where it has been going recently is to uncalculated pension costs,

:49:33.:49:39.

NI costs, apprenticeship levies which schools now have to fund, and

:49:40.:49:42.

Laura, you are a Conservative, they wouldn't come in person

:49:43.:49:46.

to defend this, so what have you got say?

:49:47.:49:49.

I'm in violent agreement and I'm not happy

:49:50.:49:53.

with the way things are going educationally in the country.

:49:54.:49:56.

That is one of the reasons I was pleased

:49:57.:49:58.

to have this opportunity to speak out.

:49:59.:50:06.

I agree with you about the grammar schools, we've made it very

:50:07.:50:09.

clear to Justine Greening that it would be an inappropriate policy for

:50:10.:50:12.

So you're not going to defend the Government's position?

:50:13.:50:15.

No, I'm not going to defend the Government on

:50:16.:50:17.

these issues, and particularly this issue of the fairer funding.

:50:18.:50:20.

There are 40 local authorities, I put my

:50:21.:50:22.

name to a letter, to the Prime Minister

:50:23.:50:24.

recently to say that the

:50:25.:50:26.

new funding formula is still incredibly unfair.

:50:27.:50:29.

And because of the way they're capping it it would take

:50:30.:50:31.

ten years for us to make up that space.

:50:32.:50:34.

Successive governments have encouraged more people to go to

:50:35.:50:41.

university but the south-west has fallen behind.

:50:42.:50:45.

Fewer people in this region applied to university than in

:50:46.:50:57.

other parts of the country and in south Bristol the rates are the

:50:58.:51:00.

second worst anywhere in the United Kingdom.

:51:01.:51:02.

Bristol and the south-west are prosperous but there are some deep

:51:03.:51:06.

divisions, the side of the city is less well off, and in educational

:51:07.:51:09.

terms it's a struggle for a long time.

:51:10.:51:11.

Fewer than one in five children growing up around here

:51:12.:51:13.

The contrast with next-door North omerset is

:51:14.:51:19.

Overall, the entire region is lagging behind.

:51:20.:51:24.

32.4% of 18-year-olds in the south-west applying to university,

:51:25.:51:27.

the lowest rate of any region, nationally the average is at 37%,

:51:28.:51:30.

with the highest figure, 46%, being in London.

:51:31.:51:45.

It's one of only two in the South Bristol

:51:46.:51:49.

Going on to higher education is encouraged but most pupils don't.

:51:50.:51:53.

I felt as though I didn't need to do it.

:51:54.:51:56.

It seems too daunting and it is really expensive.

:51:57.:51:59.

I thought I would finish my education here and then

:52:00.:52:01.

I didn't feel like university was the best

:52:02.:52:08.

option for me at all because I don't really enjoy school.

:52:09.:52:10.

I would like to go to university but the line of

:52:11.:52:22.

work I'd like to go into within the industry isn't

:52:23.:52:26.

necessary so I feel like it wouldn't be worth spending

:52:27.:52:29.

The school tries to raise aspirations among pupils.

:52:30.:52:34.

Most of whose parents went no further

:52:35.:52:35.

There are relatively high levels of low paid employment.

:52:36.:52:59.

in an apprenticeship. Plenty of interest that this

:53:00.:53:09.

apprenticeship event. The new skills Academy offers for occasional

:53:10.:53:15.

training which may be best for some. There is a sense of low aspiration

:53:16.:53:19.

in this part of the city compared to other parts of the city, but the

:53:20.:53:24.

debate has been the wrong debate about participation in higher

:53:25.:53:27.

education, it has been a debate which focuses on going to

:53:28.:53:31.

university. For many individuals that will not be the right place for

:53:32.:53:36.

them to go to. To explain why she went to university is this person.

:53:37.:53:43.

The big unknown is the fear of university, how I would afford to

:53:44.:53:47.

pay for that and how much debt I would be in. That led me to think I

:53:48.:53:54.

would go for an apprenticeship and my employer would pay for my course.

:53:55.:53:58.

Plenty on offer for those who want to follow in her footsteps but many

:53:59.:54:01.

believe Britain will need to raise its game, especially post Frexit.

:54:02.:54:07.

The Government has a key role. They have got to get to grips. --

:54:08.:54:17.

especially post Brexit. The report card for her constituency

:54:18.:54:25.

and the entire region, could, probably must, do better.

:54:26.:54:30.

Let us pick up on some of those issues. Steve West, you are vice

:54:31.:54:38.

Chancellor here at UWE, your route into higher education was not

:54:39.:54:43.

typical. I feel is most of my GCSEs and A-levels and I read to them then

:54:44.:54:47.

I went to further education then I did a part-time degree. Not the

:54:48.:54:51.

classic approach to becoming vice Chancellor in a university. And you

:54:52.:55:00.

are a surgeon as well. Yes, so I worked hard, but fairly late. What

:55:01.:55:04.

would you say to those students in South Bristol who are not aspiring

:55:05.:55:09.

to become students? The first thing is believe in yourself. There is

:55:10.:55:12.

nothing you cannot do. But you need to make sure that you have the

:55:13.:55:16.

ambition and that you are being signposted. For as we work in the

:55:17.:55:20.

South Bristol school is very high. We sent students, outreach staff

:55:21.:55:34.

then, to try and raise aspiration. This is about giving young people

:55:35.:55:36.

choices. It is about believing in them. Every single child has a

:55:37.:55:37.

talent. What we have to do is find talent. What we have to do is find

:55:38.:55:41.

it and work with it. That is important. How many of you children

:55:42.:55:43.

would aspire to go to university from a school in the deprived area

:55:44.:55:48.

that you run? Many students aspire to university. They all aspire to

:55:49.:55:53.

The number of things. We cannot The number of things. We cannot

:55:54.:55:58.

ignore the layers of deprivation, and the ways in which being deprived

:55:59.:56:03.

in terms of your experience, you opportunity, what that means in

:56:04.:56:07.

terms of what you can access, what you believe in yourself, sometimes

:56:08.:56:12.

the greatest enemy of that are adults in your life who do not

:56:13.:56:15.

believe you can do that, sometimes that is your teachers. It is

:56:16.:56:20.

important that teachers and support staff have a strong sense that

:56:21.:56:23.

students can go to university and help them to get there and do not

:56:24.:56:27.

have a limit on the aspiration. Do you accept that criticism of

:56:28.:56:31.

teachers? I do not think it is teachers necessarily, I think it is

:56:32.:56:35.

that is stratified in terms of that is stratified in terms of

:56:36.:56:38.

made to jump through hoops which made to jump through hoops which

:56:39.:56:42.

require them to teach in a certain way, and deliver exam results, but

:56:43.:56:48.

mitigates against the aspiration of white working-class boys and ethnic

:56:49.:56:54.

minorities. That knocks on to the aspiration about going forward. My

:56:55.:56:59.

experience as the reality is that that kind of target driven culture

:57:00.:57:04.

means that we absolutely have to have those high expectations. Maybe

:57:05.:57:08.

a new school, but there are statistics in this country which say

:57:09.:57:13.

that a lot of children disappear from school rules just about the

:57:14.:57:16.

time GCSE comes up because those children will hold back the schools

:57:17.:57:20.

disappear from schools, maybe not in disappear from schools, maybe not in

:57:21.:57:23.

your school, but it does happen because of statistics. You need to

:57:24.:57:29.

make the point about whether university is the right thing. What

:57:30.:57:36.

is important is to find the right path. Identify it early, get to do

:57:37.:57:40.

the right course, whether an apprenticeship, a degree, but this

:57:41.:57:46.

idea that 50% of people are meant to go on to university was a false

:57:47.:57:52.

promise. We are doing to giddy apprenticeships, working with

:57:53.:57:56.

further education colleges and business, that is an entire world

:57:57.:57:59.

alongside what we do with the university, and people should not

:58:00.:58:04.

think about universities as being academic and apprenticeships being

:58:05.:58:05.

vocational, in this modern world it vocational, in this modern world it

:58:06.:58:09.

is irrelevant. Our programmes are about ensuring that young people and

:58:10.:58:13.

all the people returning to university can get employment in the

:58:14.:58:16.

right alias. That has to start in schools.

:58:17.:58:22.

There are disillusioned budgets out there who spent ?27,000 plus on a

:58:23.:58:26.

degree and find it is not getting them a job. Everybody has got a

:58:27.:58:36.

degree. In an economy increasingly focusing on high technology

:58:37.:58:38.

environment that is tough. The jobs that are being created are not the

:58:39.:58:42.

middle management jobs anymore. Highly skilled jobs. Then at the

:58:43.:58:49.

other end, the Labour jobs that then require people to reinvent robots

:58:50.:58:56.

that can do it for us. Our -- you are offering 600 courses, there must

:58:57.:59:01.

be some of those that give a few employment opportunities. Our

:59:02.:59:06.

statistics will tell you that over 95% of our students, 96% of our

:59:07.:59:10.

students, six months after graduation are in employment, that

:59:11.:59:18.

is a good statistic. Over 75% are in graduate level jobs. That is an

:59:19.:59:22.

impressive statistic. The reason we get those statistics is because we

:59:23.:59:26.

work hard to make sure that in every degree, no matter what the subject,

:59:27.:59:30.

we are focused on employment, getting them into graduate jobs. The

:59:31.:59:36.

children that you teach and lead, how much would that ?27,000 bill

:59:37.:59:44.

deterrent them? It really does. If you have grown up in poverty the

:59:45.:59:47.

reality of facing more debt is fighting for you and your family.

:59:48.:59:55.

Let us not ignore the fact that job security, to go into a job where you

:59:56.:59:59.

know what you are going to get paid, you are going to actually get it...

:00:00.:00:05.

We need people to do every day work. It needs to be choice. What we need

:00:06.:00:11.

to see is that children understand the choices available. If you want

:00:12.:00:15.

florist, whatever it is, as long as florist, whatever it is, as long as

:00:16.:00:19.

you know how to do it and know that you have a choice that is imported.

:00:20.:00:23.

of choice. We have to leave it of choice. We have to leave it

:00:24.:00:27.

there. On that note, that is really had to leave things for this week.

:00:28.:00:38.

My thanks to everybody here at UWE for keeping us occupied and

:00:39.:00:40.

entertain this week. My thanks also to Steve West, Sally Apps, Laura,

:00:41.:00:51.

and Robin. We are back in two weeks. In the meantime you can

:00:52.:01:04.

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

:01:05.:01:06.

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

:01:07.:01:10.

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

:01:11.:01:13.

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

:01:14.:01:25.

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

:01:26.:01:29.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

:01:30.:01:39.

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

:01:40.:01:44.

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

:01:45.:01:50.

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

:01:51.:01:55.

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

:01:56.:02:02.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

:02:03.:02:12.

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

:02:13.:02:15.

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

:02:16.:02:21.

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

:02:22.:02:26.

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

:02:27.:02:29.

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

:02:30.:02:36.

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

:02:37.:02:41.

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

:02:42.:02:44.

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

:02:45.:02:49.

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

:02:50.:02:55.

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

:02:56.:03:00.

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

:03:01.:03:03.

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

:03:04.:03:11.

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

:03:12.:03:15.

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

:03:16.:03:21.

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

:03:22.:03:26.

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

:03:27.:03:31.

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

:03:32.:03:37.

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

:03:38.:03:41.

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

:03:42.:03:49.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

:03:50.:03:53.

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

:03:54.:03:57.

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

:03:58.:04:01.

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

:04:02.:04:10.

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

:04:11.:04:14.

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

:04:15.:04:17.

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

:04:18.:04:23.

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

:04:24.:04:29.

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

:04:30.:04:34.

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

:04:35.:04:38.

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

:04:39.:04:43.

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

:04:44.:04:47.

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

:04:48.:04:51.

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

:04:52.:04:56.

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

:04:57.:05:01.

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

:05:02.:05:07.

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

:05:08.:05:12.

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

:05:13.:05:15.

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

:05:16.:05:20.

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

:05:21.:05:28.

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

:05:29.:05:32.

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

:05:33.:05:37.

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

:05:38.:05:42.

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

:05:43.:05:49.

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

:05:50.:05:54.

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

:05:55.:06:00.

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

:06:01.:06:05.

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

:06:06.:06:10.

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

:06:11.:06:16.

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

:06:17.:06:24.

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

:06:25.:06:31.

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

:06:32.:06:36.

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

:06:37.:06:42.

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

:06:43.:06:49.

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

:06:50.:06:56.

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

:06:57.:07:03.

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

:07:04.:07:08.

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

:07:09.:07:13.

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

:07:14.:07:19.

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

:07:20.:07:23.

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

:07:24.:07:27.

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

:07:28.:07:31.

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

:07:32.:07:37.

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

:07:38.:07:41.

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

:07:42.:07:48.

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

:07:49.:07:53.

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

:07:54.:07:57.

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

:07:58.:08:02.

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

:08:03.:08:06.

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

:08:07.:08:14.

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

:08:15.:08:18.

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

:08:19.:08:23.

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

:08:24.:08:29.

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

:08:30.:08:34.

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

:08:35.:08:36.

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

:08:37.:08:41.

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

:08:42.:08:45.

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

:08:46.:08:50.

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

:08:51.:08:56.

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

:08:57.:08:59.

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

:09:00.:09:05.

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

:09:06.:09:09.

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

:09:10.:09:14.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

:09:15.:09:17.

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

:09:18.:09:23.

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

:09:24.:09:26.

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

:09:27.:09:31.

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

:09:32.:09:37.

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

:09:38.:09:39.

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

:09:40.:09:46.

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

:09:47.:09:50.

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

:09:51.:09:53.

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

:09:54.:09:58.

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

:09:59.:10:01.

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

:10:02.:10:06.

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

:10:07.:10:11.

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

:10:12.:10:15.

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

:10:16.:10:20.

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

:10:21.:10:24.

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

:10:25.:10:28.

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

:10:29.:10:34.

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

:10:35.:10:38.

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

:10:39.:10:44.

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

:10:45.:10:48.

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

:10:49.:10:54.

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

:10:55.:10:57.

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

:10:58.:11:03.

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

:11:04.:11:07.

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

:11:08.:11:12.

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

:11:13.:11:18.

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

:11:19.:11:23.

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

:11:24.:11:27.

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

:11:28.:11:31.

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

:11:32.:11:35.

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

:11:36.:11:41.

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

:11:42.:11:45.

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

:11:46.:11:52.

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

:11:53.:11:55.

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

:11:56.:12:02.

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

:12:03.:12:08.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

:12:09.:12:14.

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

:12:15.:12:17.

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

:12:18.:12:25.

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

:12:26.:12:31.

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

:12:32.:12:36.

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

:12:37.:12:42.

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

:12:43.:12:46.

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

:12:47.:12:49.

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

:12:50.:12:54.

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

:12:55.:12:58.

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

:12:59.:13:02.

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

:13:03.:13:08.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

:13:09.:13:13.

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

:13:14.:13:17.

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

:13:18.:13:21.

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

:13:22.:13:27.

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

:13:28.:13:31.

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

:13:32.:13:36.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

:13:37.:13:43.

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

:13:44.:13:48.

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

:13:49.:13:52.

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

:13:53.:14:20.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

:14:21.:14:23.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

:14:24.:14:27.

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"

:14:28.:14:52.

I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.

:14:53.:14:56.

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