Browse content similar to 20/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics. | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
Theresa May says she'll deliver on Brexit but does that mean leaving | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
the EU's Single Market and the Customs Union? | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Tory MPs campaign for a commitment from the Prime | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
The Chancellor pledges just over a billion pounds worth of spending | :00:52. | :01:04. | |
on Britain's roads but is that it or will there be | :01:05. | :01:10. | |
Their last leader was just 18 days in the job. | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - | :01:16. | :01:17. | |
could fracking be coming to a place near you? | :01:18. | :01:20. | |
could open the floodgates for this controversial technique. | :01:21. | :01:25. | |
in London: Is the battle for Richmond Park based on the skies? Or | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
is it about a bigger conflict in Europe? | :01:31. | :01:39. | |
And with me - as always - and, no, these three aren't doing | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
the Mannequin challenge - it's our dynamic, demonstrative, | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
dazzling political panel - Helen Lewis, Isabel Oakeshott | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
and Tom Newton Dunn they'll also be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
First this morning - Theresa May has said | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
"Brexit means Brexit" - but can the Prime Minister - | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
who was on the Remain side of argument during the referendum | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
Well, Leave-supporting Tory MPs are re-launching | :02:03. | :02:10. | |
the "European Research Group" this morning to keep Mrs May's feet | :02:11. | :02:18. | |
Are you worried that you cannot trust Theresa May until payment to | :02:19. | :02:28. | |
deliver full Brexit was Magellan like I totally trust Theresa May, | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
100% behind her. She has displayed a massive amount of commitment to | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
making a success of Brexit for the country. | :02:38. | :02:40. | |
We don't know that yet, because nothing has happened. Why, then, | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
have you formed a pressure group? We were fed up with the negativity | :02:45. | :02:51. | |
coming out around Brexit. I feel positive about the opportunities we | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
face, and we are a group to provide suggestions. Who do you have in mind | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
when you talk about negativity - the Chancellor? No, from the Lib Dems, | :03:00. | :03:05. | |
for example, from Labour MPs. This is a pressure group for leaving | :03:06. | :03:12. | |
membership of the single market and customs union, correct? That is what | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
we are proposing. It has a purpose other than just to combat | :03:18. | :03:20. | |
negativity. When it comes to membership of the single market and | :03:21. | :03:25. | |
the customs union, can you tell us what Government policy is towards | :03:26. | :03:29. | |
both or either? Rightly, the Government hasn't made the position | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
clear, and I think that is the right approach, because we don't want to | :03:34. | :03:38. | |
review our negotiating hand. What we're saying... I'm not asking what | :03:39. | :03:45. | |
you are saying. Can you tell us what Government policy is towards | :03:46. | :03:47. | |
membership of these institutions? The Government wants to make sure | :03:48. | :03:52. | |
British businesses have the right to trade with EU partners, to forge new | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
trade deals with the rest of the world. We hope to Reza may speak at | :03:57. | :04:04. | |
Mansion house this week. -- we had Theresa May speak at Mansion house | :04:05. | :04:07. | |
this week. She has been clear, saying it was not a binary choice. | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
And she's right. Let's run that tape, because I want to pick up on | :04:14. | :04:16. | |
what she did say. This is what she had to say about the customs union | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
at Prime Minister's Question Time. On the whole question of the customs | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
union, trading relationships that we have with the European Union and | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
other parts of the world once we have left the European Union, we are | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
preparing carefully for the formal negotiations. We are preparing | :04:35. | :04:44. | |
carefully for the formal negotiations. We want to ensure we | :04:45. | :04:47. | |
have the best possible trading deal with the EU once we have left. Do | :04:48. | :04:53. | |
you know what she means when she says being in the customs union is | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
not a binary choice? I think she's right when she says that. At the | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
moment, and you know this, as long as we are in the customs union, we | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
cannot set our own tariffs or rules, cannot have a free trade agreement | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
with the US or China. We need to leave a customs union to do that. | :05:10. | :05:15. | |
Binary means either you are in or you are out, self which is it? We | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
still want to trade with the EU, and I think we can have a free trade | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
agreement with the EU. That is a separate matter, and it has to do | :05:24. | :05:30. | |
with the single market. What about the customs union? We need to leave | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
the customs union. We do it and properly. That is how to get the | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
most out of this opportunity. Summit is a binary choice? The Prime | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
Minister is right when she says it's not a binary choice. Both can't be | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
right. We can leave the customs union, get their benefits, and have | :05:48. | :05:55. | |
a free trade agreement with zero tariffs with the EU. So it is a | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
binary choice an either be stale really. Yellow like I am saying the | :06:02. | :06:03. | |
Prime Minister is right when she says it is not a binary choice. -- I | :06:04. | :06:10. | |
am saying the Prime Minister is right. We need clarity. Youth had | :06:11. | :06:18. | |
said -- you have said it is a binary choice. We need to leave the | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
constraints of the customs union. It pushes up prices. The EU is not | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
securing the right trade deals, and if we want to make the most of it, | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
we need to get out there and get some deals going. Do you accept that | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
if we remain in the customs union, we cannot do our own free-trade | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
deals? Yellow right 100%. That is why we have to leave. -- 100%. Do | :06:41. | :06:56. | |
you accept that if we leave the customs union but stay with | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
substantial access, I don't say membership, but substantial access | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
to the single market, that goods going from this country to the | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
single market because we're no longer in the union will be subject | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
to complicated rules of origin regulations, which could cost | :07:13. | :07:20. | |
business ?13 billion a year? I would like to see a free-trade agreement | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
between the UK and the EU. Look at the Canadian deal. I give you that, | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
but if we're not in the customs union, things that we bring in on | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
our own tariffs once we've left, we can't just export again willy-nilly | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
to the EU. They will demand to see rules of origin. Norway has to do | :07:39. | :07:41. | |
that at the moment and it is highly complicated expensive. I think if we | :07:42. | :07:47. | |
agree a particular arrangement as part of this agreement with the EU, | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
we can reach an agreement on that which sets a lower standard, which | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
sets a different level of tariffs, which protects some of our | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
industries. Let's suppose we have pretty much free trade with the EU | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
but we are out of the customs union, and let's suppose that the European | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
Union has a 20% tariff on Japanese whisky and we decide to have a 0% | :08:11. | :08:19. | |
tariff - what then happens to the whisky that comes into Britain and | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
goes on to the EU? The EU will not let that in. That will be part of | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
the negotiation. I think there is a huge benefit for external operators. | :08:29. | :08:35. | |
Every bottle of Japanese whisky, they will have to work out the rules | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
of origin. There have been studies that show there is a potential for | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
50% increase in global product if we leave. We're losing the benefits of | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
free trade. I understand, I am asking for your particular view. | :08:51. | :08:51. | |
Thank you for that. Is it not surprising Mr Hannan could | :08:52. | :09:00. | |
not bring himself to say we would leave the customs union? It is | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
messy. The reason there is this new group of Tory MPs signing up to a | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
campaign to make sure we get a genuine Brexit is because there is | :09:11. | :09:16. | |
this vacuum. It is being filled with all sorts of briefing from the other | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
side. There is a real risk in the minds of Brexit supporting MPs that | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
the remaining side are going to try to hijack the process, not only | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
through the Supreme Court action, which I think most Brexit MPs seem | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
to accept the appeal will fail, but further down the line, through | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
amendments to the great repeal bill. This is a pressure group to try to | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
hold the Prime Minister to account. There is plenty of pressure on the | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
Prime Minister effectively to stay in the single market and the customs | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
union, and if you do both of these things, de facto, you have stayed in | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
the EU. She is in a difficult position because there is no good | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
faith assumption about what Theresa May wants because she was a | :10:03. | :10:08. | |
Remainer. There is all this talk about a transitional arrangement, | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
but she can't sell that as someone who voted to remain. The way Isabel | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
has characterised it is interesting. There is a betrayal narrative. | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
Everyone is looking to say that she has betrayed the true Brexit. Since | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
the Government cannot give a clear indication of what it once in terms | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
of the customs union, which sets external tariffs, or the single | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
market, which is the free movement of people, capital, goods and | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
services, others are filling this vacuum. Right. The reasons they | :10:40. | :10:46. | |
can't do this are, first, they don't know if they can get it or not. We | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
saw this with the renegotiation the last Prime Minister. What are they | :10:50. | :10:56. | |
hoping to get? The world on a stick, to get cake and eat it. You go into | :10:57. | :11:06. | |
a negotiation saying, let's see what we can get in total. Are they going | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
to ask the membership of the single market? Yellow I think they will ask | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
for a free trade agreement involving everything. You can demand what you | :11:16. | :11:27. | |
want. The question is, do they stand a cat's chance in hell of getting | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
it? They don't know. Welcome back. We will be back, believe me. It is | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
150 day since we found out the UK had voted to leave the EU, but as we | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
have heard, remain and leave campaigners continue to battle about | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
what type of relationship we should have with the EU after exit. | :11:49. | :11:56. | |
Leave campaigners say that leaving the EU | :11:57. | :11:57. | |
also means quitting the | :11:58. | :11:58. | |
Single Market, the internal European trading bloc that includes free | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
movement of goods, services, capital and people. | :12:02. | :12:03. | |
They point to evidence that leading Leave supporting | :12:04. | :12:05. | |
politicians ruled out staying in the Single Market during | :12:06. | :12:07. | |
Andrea Leadsom, for example, said it would almost | :12:08. | :12:10. | |
certainly be the case that the UK would come out of the Single Market. | :12:11. | :12:19. | |
When asked for a yes or no on whether the UK should stay | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
"No, we should be outside the Single Market." | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
And Boris Johnson agreed with his erstwhile ally, saying, "Michael | :12:28. | :12:29. | |
Gove was absolutely right to say the UK | :12:30. | :12:31. | |
They've released a video of clips of Leave campaigners speaking before | :12:32. | :12:42. | |
the referendum apparently saying that the UK should stay in the | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
Nigel Farage, for example, once said that on leaving | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
the EU we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
Owen Paterson, the former Environment Secretary, | :12:52. | :12:53. | |
once made the startling statement that only a madman would actually | :12:54. | :13:00. | |
And Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief, said | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
that the Norwegian option would be initially attractive for some | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
But do these quotes create an accurate picture of what | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
To cast some light on where these quotes came from we're | :13:13. | :13:19. | |
joined by James McGrory, director of Open Britain | :13:20. | :13:21. | |
Welcome to the Sunday Politics. . Your video has statements from leave | :13:22. | :13:35. | |
campaigners hinting they want to stay in the single market. How many | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
were made during the referendum campaign? I don't know. Not one was | :13:39. | :13:46. | |
made during the referendum campaign. Indeed, only two of the 12 | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
statements were recorded after Royal assent had been given to the | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
referendum. Only one was made this year before the referendum. | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
Throughout the campaign am a leave campaigners lauded the Norwegian | :14:00. | :14:02. | |
model. Norway are in the single market but not in the EU. They went | :14:03. | :14:09. | |
out of their way not to be pinned down on a specific trading | :14:10. | :14:11. | |
arrangement they want to see in the future with Europe, when the | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
Treasury model the different models it was the EEA or a free-trade | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
agreement. I understand. Does it not undermine your case that none of the | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
12 statements on your video were made during the campaign itself, | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
when people were giving really serious thought to such matters? The | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
Leave campaign weren't giving serious thought to such matters. | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
They did not set out the future trading model they wanted to see. | :14:38. | :14:42. | |
But you cannot produce a single video with somebody saying we should | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
stay in the single market during the campaign. Daniel Hanna had talked | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
about the Norwegian model as a future option. One comment from | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
Nigel Farage dates back to 2009, when we didn't even know if we would | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
have a referendum or not. Does it not stretch credibility to go back | :15:01. | :15:04. | |
to the time when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister? The overall point | :15:05. | :15:08. | |
stands. It is not supposed to be an exhaustive list of the options. | :15:09. | :15:14. | |
Daniel Hannan, described as the intellectual godfather of the Leave | :15:15. | :15:19. | |
movement is saying that no one is talking about threatening our place | :15:20. | :15:22. | |
in the signal market. I think it's legitimate to point out the Leave | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
campaign never came forward with a credible argument. We have | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
highlighted some of the quotes you picked out from leave campaigners | :15:31. | :15:33. | |
over time. Do you think you have fully encapsulated their arguments | :15:34. | :15:40. | |
accurately? I don't think in a 92nd video you can talk about the full | :15:41. | :15:46. | |
thing. -- a 90-2nd video. Some of them want to seek a free-trade | :15:47. | :15:50. | |
agreement, some to default on to World Trade Organisation tariffs. | :15:51. | :15:58. | |
There is a range of opinion in the Leave campaign. Let's listen to the | :15:59. | :16:00. | |
clip you used on Owen Paterson first. | :16:01. | :16:02. | |
Only a madman would actually leave the market. | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
Only a madman would actually leave the market. | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
It's not the EU which is | :16:14. | :16:14. | |
a political organisation delivering the prosperity and buying our goods. | :16:15. | :16:17. | |
It's the market, it's the members of the market and we'll carry on | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
I mean, are we really suggesting that the | :16:22. | :16:24. | |
economy in the world is not going to come to come | :16:25. | :16:26. | |
to a satisfactory trading arrangement with the EU? | :16:27. | :16:28. | |
Are we going to be like Sudan and North | :16:29. | :16:30. | |
It is ludicrous this idea that we are going to leap off a | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
What he said when he said only a madman would leave Europe, was that | :16:36. | :16:48. | |
we would continue to trade, we would continue to have access. Any country | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
in the world can have access. What the Leave campaign suggested is our | :16:53. | :16:55. | |
trade would continue uninterrupted, they are still at it today, David | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
Davis used the phrase, uninterrupted, from the dispatch box | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
recently. You misrepresented him by saying only a madman would leave the | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
Single Market and stopped it there, because he goes onto say that of | :17:08. | :17:11. | |
course we want Leave in the sense of continuing to have access. I don't | :17:12. | :17:13. | |
think he was about axis, he is talking | :17:14. | :17:31. | |
about membership. He doesn't use the word membership at all. He talks | :17:32. | :17:34. | |
about we are going to carry on trading with them, we will not leap | :17:35. | :17:36. | |
off, we will carry on trading. Anybody can trade with the EU, it's | :17:37. | :17:39. | |
the terms on which you trade that is important and leave campaigners and | :17:40. | :17:41. | |
Patterson is an example of this, saying we can trade as we do now, | :17:42. | :17:44. | |
the government saying we can trade without bureaucratic impediments and | :17:45. | :17:46. | |
tariff free. The viewers will make up their mind. Let's listen to the | :17:47. | :17:49. | |
views of Matthew Elliott, the Chief Executive of Vote Leave. | :17:50. | :17:50. | |
When it comes to the Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that | :17:51. | :17:53. | |
it might be initially attractive for some business people. | :17:54. | :17:55. | |
So you then cut him off there but this is what he went on to say in | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
the same clip, let's listen to that. When it comes to the Norwegian | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive | :18:04. | :18:06. | |
for some business people. But then again for voters | :18:07. | :18:08. | |
who are increasingly concerned about migration in the EU, | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
they will be very concerned that it allows free movement | :18:12. | :18:15. | |
of people to continue. Again, you have misrepresented him. | :18:16. | :18:26. | |
He said the Norwegian model has attractions but there are real | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
problems if it involves free movement of people, which it does. | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
But you cut that bit out. I challenge anyone to represent them | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
accurately because they took such a range of opinions. I don't know what | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
we are supposed to do. You are misrepresenting them. He is saying | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
the Norwegian option is attractive to business, I understand why. It | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
might not be attractive for voters. But then he said if it allowed free | :18:50. | :18:55. | |
movement of people it could be an issue. You took that out. You are | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
saying this is a definitive position. I'm suggesting you are | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
distorting it. This is what you had Mr Farage say. | :19:04. | :19:05. | |
On D+1 we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area | :19:06. | :19:07. | |
This is what he then went on to say in that same clip that you didn't | :19:08. | :19:15. | |
run. There is absolutely | :19:16. | :19:16. | |
nothing to fear in terms of trade from leaving | :19:17. | :19:18. | |
the on D+1 we'll find ourselves part | :19:19. | :19:19. | |
of the European Economic Area and we should use our | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
membership of the EEA as a holding position from which | :19:25. | :19:33. | |
we can negotiate as the European Union's biggest export | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
market in the world, as good a deal, my goodness me, | :19:37. | :19:38. | |
if Switzerland can have one we So there again, he says not that we | :19:39. | :19:48. | |
should stay in the Single Market as a member, but that we stay in the EA | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
as a transition until we negotiate something. -- EEA. This whole clip | :19:54. | :20:03. | |
is online, how would you get away with this distortion? It is not a | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
distortion, the whole point is to point out they do not have a | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
definitive position, he is arguing for membership of the Single Market, | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
for a transitional period. For the transition. How long does that go | :20:14. | :20:18. | |
on, what does he want to then achieve? Not very quickly but he | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
does not say we should stay members of the Single Market and you didn't | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
let people see what he went on to say, you gave the impression he | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
wanted to stay in the one it. It would not be a video then, it would | :20:29. | :20:33. | |
be a seven-week long lecture. They took so many positions, and the idea | :20:34. | :20:36. | |
now that they were clear with people that we should definitely leave the | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
Single Market I think is fictitious. You are trying to make out they all | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
had one position which was to remain members of the one it. You see the | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
full clips that is not what they are saying. We are trying to point out | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
there is no mandate to leave the Single Market. The idea the Leave | :20:54. | :20:56. | |
campaign spoke with unanimity and clarity of purpose and throughout | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
the whole campaign said we will definitely leave the Single Market | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
is not true. That is the whole point of the media. We showed in the | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
montage in the video just before we came on, we said that then Prime | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
Minister, the then Chancellor, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, being | :21:12. | :21:14. | |
categorical that if you vote to leave the EU, you vote to leave | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
membership of the Single Market. What bit of that didn't you | :21:19. | :21:21. | |
understand? Under duress they occasionally said they wanted to | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
leave. Some of them wanted to leave the Single Market. All of the other | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
promises they made, whether ?350 million for the NHS, whether a VAT | :21:32. | :21:35. | |
cut on fuel, points-based system. You do not have a single quote of | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
any of these members saying they want to be a member. Daniel Hannan | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
has said consistently that Norway are a part of the Single Market. You | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
spend the referendum campaign criticising for Rim misrepresenting | :21:48. | :21:49. | |
and misrepresenting and lying and many thought they did. Having seen | :21:50. | :21:52. | |
this many will conclude that you are the biggest liars. I think it is | :21:53. | :21:56. | |
perfectly reasonable to point out that the Leave campaign did not have | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
a clear position on our future trading relationship with Europe. | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
That is all this video does. It doesn't say we definitely have to | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
stay in the Single Market, it just says they do have a mandate to drag | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
us out of our biggest trading partner. | :22:12. | :22:13. | |
Now people have seen the full quotes in context our viewers will make up | :22:14. | :22:15. | |
their mind. Thank you. Now - voting closes next week | :22:16. | :22:17. | |
in the the Ukip leadership contest. The second Ukip leadership contest | :22:18. | :22:20. | |
this year after the party's first female leader - Diane James - | :22:21. | :22:23. | |
stood down from the role Since then the party's lurched from | :22:24. | :22:25. | |
farce to fiasco. It's a world gripped by uncertainty, | :22:26. | :22:28. | |
split into factions. Yes, 2, because they're | :22:29. | :22:44. | |
having their second Watch as the alpha male, | :22:45. | :22:54. | |
the Ukip leader at Nigel Watch as the alpha male, | :22:55. | :23:01. | |
the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, hands power to the new alpha | :23:02. | :23:04. | |
female Diane James. The European Parliament | :23:05. | :23:06. | |
in Strasbourg, October. Another leading light and possible | :23:07. | :23:20. | |
future leader, the MEP Steven Wolfe, | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
has been laid low after an alleged tussle with a colleague | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
during a meeting. A few days later he is | :23:27. | :23:28. | |
out of hospital and I will be withdrawing my | :23:29. | :23:30. | |
application to become I'm actually withdrawing | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
myself from Ukip. You're resigning from the party? | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
I'm resigning with immediate effect. And this week a leaked document | :23:39. | :23:44. | |
suggested the party improperly spent EU funds on political | :23:45. | :23:47. | |
campaigning in the UK. Another headache for whoever takes | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
over the leadership of the pack. One contender is Suzanne Evans, | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
a former Tory councillor and was briefly suspended for | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
disloyalty. Also standing, Paul Nuttall, | :24:02. | :24:10. | |
an MEP from Liverpool who has been by Farage's side | :24:11. | :24:13. | |
as his deputy for six years. There's another big beast | :24:14. | :24:19. | |
in the Ukip leadership contest, and I'm told | :24:20. | :24:21. | |
that today he can be spotted He's John Rees-Evans, | :24:22. | :24:24. | |
a businessman and adventurer who is offering members the chance | :24:25. | :24:29. | |
to propose policies via a website We've got really dedicated | :24:30. | :24:32. | |
passionate supporters who feel like they're not really | :24:33. | :24:46. | |
being listened to and are not even Typically what happens | :24:47. | :24:49. | |
is they just basically sit there until six months before | :24:50. | :24:52. | |
a General Election when they are contacted and asked to go out | :24:53. | :24:54. | |
and leaflet and canvas. Even at branch level people feel | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
there is not an adequate flow of communication | :24:58. | :24:59. | |
up-and-down the party. Are you not going to take part in | :25:00. | :25:01. | |
any hustings? He left a hustings saying | :25:02. | :25:10. | |
the contest was an establishment coronation and has | :25:11. | :25:13. | |
made colourful comments in the past. He's in favour of the death penalty | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
for crimes like paedophilia. I think there is a clear | :25:17. | :25:18. | |
will amongst the offences should be dealt with | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
decisively. But again, on an issue like that, | :25:22. | :25:24. | |
that is something that Our members are not | :25:25. | :25:27. | |
going to agree with me on everything and I don't believe that | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
I would have any authority to have the say and determine | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
the future What method would you use | :25:36. | :25:37. | |
for the death penalty? Again, that is something that could | :25:38. | :25:40. | |
be determined by suggestions made So you'd have like an online | :25:41. | :25:43. | |
poll about whether you use the electric chair, | :25:44. | :25:47. | |
or lethal injection? For example, arguments would be made | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
in favour of This is such a small aspect | :25:54. | :25:55. | |
of what I'm standing for. Essentially, in mainstream media | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
they try to by focusing on pretty irrelevant | :26:00. | :26:01. | |
details. This is one vote that | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
the membership would have. What I'm actually trying to do | :26:08. | :26:09. | |
in this party is to revolutionise the democratic | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
process in the UK, and that's really what your viewers should | :26:14. | :26:16. | |
be concentrating on. With him at the helm he reckons Ukip | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
would win at Meanwhile, in New York, | :26:21. | :26:22. | |
on a visit to Trump Tower, Nigel Farage admired the plumage | :26:23. | :26:30. | |
of the President-elect, a man he has described as | :26:31. | :26:39. | |
a silverback gorilla, a friendship that's been condemned by some | :26:40. | :26:41. | |
in this leadership contest. There are also elections | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
to the party's National Executive Committee, a body | :26:46. | :26:47. | |
that's been roundly criticised by And we're joined now by two | :26:48. | :26:49. | |
of the candidates in the Ukip leadership election - | :26:50. | :27:04. | |
Suzanne Evans and Paul Nuttall. We are going to kick off by giving | :27:05. | :27:14. | |
each of them 30 seconds to lay out their case as to why they would be | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
the less leader starting with Suzanne Evans. | :27:18. | :27:20. | |
Ukip is at its best when it is scaring the political establishment, | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
forcing it to address those problems it would rather ignore. But it | :27:24. | :27:27. | |
really change people's lives for the better and fast, we need to win | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
seats and elections right across the country. To win at the ballot box we | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
need to attract more women, more ethnic | :27:36. | :27:55. | |
minorities, and more of those Labour voters who no longer recognise their | :27:56. | :27:57. | |
party. I know how to do that. Ukip under my | :27:58. | :28:00. | |
leadership will be the same page about it, common-sense, radical | :28:01. | :28:03. | |
party it has always been, just even more successful. Thank you, Suzanne | :28:04. | :28:05. | |
Evans, Paul Nuttall. I'm standing on a platform of unity and experience. | :28:06. | :28:07. | |
I believe the party must come together if it is to survive and | :28:08. | :28:10. | |
prosper. I believe I'm the best candidate to ensure that happens, I | :28:11. | :28:12. | |
am not part of any faction in the party, and beyond that I have done | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
every single job within the party, whether that is as head of policy, | :28:16. | :28:18. | |
whether that is Party Chairman, deputy leader for Nigel for the past | :28:19. | :28:20. | |
six years. I believe Ukip has great opportunities in Labour | :28:21. | :28:22. | |
constituencies where we can move in and become the Patriot invoice of | :28:23. | :28:26. | |
working people, and beyond that we have to ensure the government's feet | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
are held to the fire on Brexit and we get real Brexit, not a | :28:30. | :28:36. | |
mealy-mouthed version. How will you get a grip on this? People have to | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
realise that the cause is bigger than any personality, we have to get | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
together in a room and sort out not just a spokespeople role but roles | :28:45. | :28:47. | |
within the organisation, Party Chairman, party secretary, and | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
whatnot. But as I say, Ukip must unite, we are on 13% in the opinion | :28:53. | :28:56. | |
polls, the future is bright, there are open goals but Ukip must be on | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
the pitch to score them. He says he's the only one that can get a | :29:02. | :29:04. | |
grip on this party. I disagree, I have a huge amount of experience in | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
the party as well and also a background that I think means I can | :29:09. | :29:11. | |
help bring people together. I have always said nothing breeds unity | :29:12. | :29:22. | |
faster than success and under my leadership we will be successful. | :29:23. | :29:24. | |
There is concern about the future of our National Executive Committee | :29:25. | :29:26. | |
going forward. Mr Farage called it the lowest grade of people I have | :29:27. | :29:29. | |
ever met, do you agree? I think he must have been having a bad day, I | :29:30. | :29:32. | |
think we need to make it more accountable to the membership, more | :29:33. | :29:35. | |
open, more democratic. What would you do with the National Executive | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
Committee? I have been calling for the National Executive Committee to | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
be elected reasonably since 2010 giving the members better | :29:45. | :29:46. | |
communication lines and make it far more transparent. Would you have a | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
clear out of the office? I wouldn't, I think the chairman of the party, | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
Paul Upton, the interim chairman, is doing a good job and the only person | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
who has come out of the summer with his reputation enhanced. Let me show | :30:00. | :30:02. | |
you a picture we have all seen of your current leader, Mr Farage, with | :30:03. | :30:09. | |
President-elect Donald Trump. Paul Nuttall, you criticise Mr Farage's | :30:10. | :30:13. | |
decision to appear at rallies during the American election and called Mr | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
Trump appalling. Do you stick by that? I wouldn't have voted for him. | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
I made it clear. Do you still think he's appalling now that he is | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
President-elect? Some of the things he said were appalling during the | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
campaign that he said. But he would be good for Britain, trade, | :30:32. | :30:34. | |
pro-Brexit and he is an Anglo file and the first thing he did was put | :30:35. | :30:37. | |
the bust of Winston Churchill back in the Oval Office. You, Suzanne | :30:38. | :30:43. | |
Evans, called Mr Trump one of the weakest candidates the US has had. I | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
said the same about Hillary Clinton. They cannot both be the weakest. The | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
better candidate on either side would have beaten the other, that is | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
quite clear. Do you stand by that, or are you glad that your leader Mr | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
Farage has strong ties to him? I am, why wouldn't I be? For Ukip to have | :31:01. | :31:05. | |
that direct connection, it can be only good for a party. Were you not | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
out of step and Mr Farage is in step because it looks like your vote is | :31:10. | :31:12. | |
according to polling I have seemed like Mr Trump and his policies? Let | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
me finish. If I am the leader of Ukip I will not be involving myself | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
in foreign elections, I will because in trading here in this country | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
ensuring we get Ukip people elected to council chambers and get seats in | :31:26. | :31:27. | |
2020. The other thing your leader has in | :31:28. | :31:37. | |
common with Mr Trump is that he rather admires Vladimir Putin. Do | :31:38. | :31:43. | |
you? I don't. If you look at Putin's record, he has invaded Ukraine and | :31:44. | :31:50. | |
Georgia. I am absolutely not a fan. I think that Vladimir Putin is | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
pretty much a nasty man, but beyond that, I believe that in the Middle | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
East, he is generally getting it right in many areas. We need to | :32:00. | :32:06. | |
bring the conflict... Bombing civilians? We need to bring the | :32:07. | :32:10. | |
conflict to an end as fast as possible. The British and American | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
line before Donald Trump is to support rebels, including one is | :32:15. | :32:22. | |
affiliated to Al-Qaeda, to the Taliban. We need to clear these | :32:23. | :32:25. | |
people out and ensure that Syria becomes stable. This controversial | :32:26. | :32:33. | |
breaking point poster from during the referendum campaign. Mr Farage | :32:34. | :32:36. | |
unveiled it, there he is standing in front of it. You can bend it - do | :32:37. | :32:42. | |
you still? Yes, I think it was the wrong poster at the wrong time. I | :32:43. | :32:46. | |
was involved with the vote Leave campaign as well as Ukip's campaign, | :32:47. | :32:50. | |
and I felt strongly that those concerned about immigration were | :32:51. | :32:53. | |
already going to vote to leave because it was a fundamental truth | :32:54. | :32:57. | |
that unless we left the European Union we couldn't control | :32:58. | :32:59. | |
immigration. I thought it was about approaching those soft wavering | :33:00. | :33:08. | |
voters who weren't sure. I don't think I said it was racist, but it | :33:09. | :33:12. | |
was about sovereignty and trade and so forth. That was where we needed | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
to go. I was concerned it might put off some of those wavering voters. | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
People may well say, it was part of the winning campaign. It was Ukip | :33:22. | :33:27. | |
shock and all, which is what you stand for and what makes you | :33:28. | :33:34. | |
different. I said I would know how that I said I would not have gone | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
for that person and I thought it was wrong to do it just a week out from | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
the referendum. However, I believe it released legitimate concerns, | :33:41. | :33:47. | |
with a deluge of people making their way from the Middle East and Africa | :33:48. | :33:55. | |
into the European continent. Where is the low hanging fruit for you, | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
particularly in England? Is it Labour or Conservative voters? I | :34:00. | :34:04. | |
want to hang onto the Conservative voters we have got but I think the | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
low hanging fruit is Labour. Jeremy Corbyn won't sing the national | :34:10. | :34:13. | |
anthem, Emily Thornbury despises the English flag. Diane Abbott thinks | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
anyone talking about immigration is racist. Not to mention John | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
McDonnell's feelings about the IRA. Labour has ceased to be a party for | :34:22. | :34:25. | |
working people and I think Ukip is absolutely going to be that party. | :34:26. | :34:30. | |
It is clear, I absolutely concur with everything Suzanne has said. I | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
first voiced this back in 2008 that I believe Ukip has a fantastic | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
opportunity in working-class communities, and everyone laughed at | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
me. It is clear now that we resonate with working people, and you have | :34:45. | :34:46. | |
seen that in the Brexit result. Would you bring back the death | :34:47. | :34:53. | |
penalty? It wouldn't be Ukip policy. Absolutely not. Would you give more | :34:54. | :34:57. | |
money to the NHS and how would your fanatic? You like it is important to | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
fund it adequately, and it hasn't been to date. We promised in our | :35:02. | :35:11. | |
manifesto that we would give more money. Where does the money come | :35:12. | :35:15. | |
from? It is about tackling health tourism. I think the NHS is being | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
taken for a ride at the moment. That may be right, but where does the | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
money come from? It is about scaling back management in the NHS, because | :35:27. | :35:29. | |
that has burgeoned beyond control. They are spending far more money on | :35:30. | :35:34. | |
management. Where would you save money? We need to look at HS two, | :35:35. | :35:39. | |
foreign aid. Now we have Brexit and we will be saving on the membership | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
fee. We need to cut back on management, as Suzanne says. It | :35:45. | :35:47. | |
cannot be right that 51% of people who work for the NHS in England are | :35:48. | :35:54. | |
not clinically qualified. The NHS needs money now - where would you | :35:55. | :36:01. | |
get it? From HS two. That is capital spending spread over a long period. | :36:02. | :36:06. | |
Where will you get the money now? OK, another one. We spent ?25 | :36:07. | :36:10. | |
million every day on foreign aid to countries who sometimes are richer | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
than ourselves. Through the Barnett formula. You would take money away | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
from Scotland? Yes, I think they get far too much. PG tips or Earl Grey? | :36:20. | :36:35. | |
Colegrave. PG tips. Strictly come dancing or X Factor? Neither. | :36:36. | :36:43. | |
Strictly. I would love to be on it one day. There you go. Thank you | :36:44. | :36:48. | |
It's just gone 11:35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :36:49. | :36:52. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :36:53. | :36:55. | |
Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead. | :36:56. | :37:04. | |
Hello, you're watching the Sunday Politics | :37:05. | :37:05. | |
for Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and the North Midlands. | :37:06. | :37:08. | |
Could fracking be coming to a place near you? | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
could open the floodgates for this controversial technique. | :37:13. | :37:23. | |
I am here in North Yorkshire, right on the spot where the first | :37:24. | :37:28. | |
commercial extraction of gas using fracking could start within a matter | :37:29. | :37:33. | |
of weeks. I will be talking to the local MP about why it is so | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
controversial and why he supports it. | :37:37. | :37:37. | |
But where does renewable energy fit in the mix? | :37:38. | :37:39. | |
We're on the Humber - the "Energy Estuary" - | :37:40. | :37:41. | |
as businesses there ask for more clarity | :37:42. | :37:43. | |
This week, the High Court could decide if fracking | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
in what's being seen as a landmark legal challenge. | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
Opponents of the technique are hoping a judicial review | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
will overturn a decision made by North Yorkshire County Council | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
In a moment, we'll be going live to the proposed fracking site | :38:02. | :38:05. | |
But, first, Danni Hewson reports on why shale gas is so important | :38:06. | :38:11. | |
Or, to give it its full title, high-pressure hydraulic fracturing. | :38:12. | :38:21. | |
The aim is to get to gas trapped deep within layers of shale. | :38:22. | :38:25. | |
Pumping water mixed with chemicals to make it slippy, | :38:26. | :38:28. | |
and sand to hold open the fissures as they are created | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
should allow the lucrative fuel to escape. | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
In the past, much of the region's economy and landscape | :38:37. | :38:38. | |
But our part in the energy equation is not over. | :38:39. | :38:46. | |
If the shale industry can be successful, | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
it could have an even greater impact. | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
84% of UK homes are heated using natural gas. | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
Actually, we think that this is a very early phase of science, | :38:57. | :39:02. | |
we don't know whether it will produce or not. | :39:03. | :39:04. | |
Actually, through doing the 2D, the 3D, the core drilling | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
and testing whether you can flow it safely and in commercial quantities, | :39:08. | :39:10. | |
you then have a domestic resource option, | :39:11. | :39:14. | |
if you prove it can be successful. | :39:15. | :39:16. | |
Just look at where companies like Ineos believe | :39:17. | :39:18. | |
Licences for exploration cover vast swathes of our region. | :39:19. | :39:25. | |
So far, only this site in Kirby Misperton has been given | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
planning permission to frack and, last week, this site in Misson | :39:29. | :39:32. | |
got the go-ahead for first stage drilling. | :39:33. | :39:35. | |
But campaigners expect next year to be pivotal. | :39:36. | :39:39. | |
I think the pace is quickening, and companies are going to be | :39:40. | :39:42. | |
putting in more applications in the next six months. | :39:43. | :39:45. | |
We have seen activity from the industry | :39:46. | :39:47. | |
I think the industry is taking heart from the Government decisions | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
in those counties and will be pushing ahead. | :39:52. | :39:54. | |
But if they think they are home and dry, | :39:55. | :39:56. | |
Opposition has been highly organised. | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
Some, like I did, have travelled to learn more. | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
where they have been fracking for over a decade, | :40:05. | :40:08. | |
I met a group of mothers with their own concerns. | :40:09. | :40:11. | |
One has just made the return journey. | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
If you could develop shale in a bubble - | :40:16. | :40:17. | |
no air quality issues, no issues of water contamination | :40:18. | :40:24. | |
or damage to homes or increased truck traffic | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
or problems with spills, incidents, accidents - | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
if you could guarantee your community, 100%, | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
that they are not going to have any impact at all then, | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
But the problem is, with this industry, there is no guarantee. | :40:41. | :40:47. | |
But there are differences and the industry here | :40:48. | :40:49. | |
says it deserves time to win the public's trust. | :40:50. | :40:53. | |
Really what I think needs to be done is building the confidence | :40:54. | :40:57. | |
in the process by explaining the 2D, the 3D, the core drilling, | :40:58. | :41:00. | |
what the site looks like, what the risks and issues | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
we are dealing with as a company are - | :41:05. | :41:06. | |
that is the bit that needs to be done alongside the planning process. | :41:07. | :41:11. | |
Whatever your views, it's expected next year will deliver | :41:12. | :41:13. | |
first-hand experience for at least one community, | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
Let's cross live now to Kirby Misperton | :41:18. | :41:25. | |
and join Len Tingle at the Third energy site. | :41:26. | :41:27. | |
Len, just remind us of the significance of where you are? | :41:28. | :41:34. | |
This is the site that for the last two decades or more, they have been | :41:35. | :41:41. | |
extracting gas conventionally. We are a couple of hundred meters away | :41:42. | :41:49. | |
from Kirby Mr -- Kirby Misperton, which is close to flamingo land, if | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
you want to find out where we are. Just on this site, a few metres | :41:55. | :41:57. | |
away, they hope to start the first extraction using the controversial | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
system of fracking. I'm joined by the local Conservative MP. You were | :42:03. | :42:07. | |
on that trip to the United States that we have just seen. You have | :42:08. | :42:10. | |
looked at fracking for yourself. You're convinced it is a good thing. | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
Why is that? It is a national opportunity. The decision to push | :42:15. | :42:21. | |
ahead with shale gas expiration was taken in January 2015 and passed by | :42:22. | :42:25. | |
a majority of 250 votes. That is because we need gas. We have | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
millions of homes connected to gas supplies for cooking and heating, we | :42:32. | :42:37. | |
at shutting down our coal power stations and replacing them with | :42:38. | :42:45. | |
group are saying that it could group are saying that it could | :42:46. | :42:48. | |
contaminate water supplies and things like that. Why is there such | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
a port? I understand the local a port? I understand the local | :42:53. | :42:56. | |
concerns. What I have been doing for concerns. What I have been doing for | :42:57. | :42:59. | |
the last 18 months is working very hard to make sure we have the proper | :43:00. | :43:02. | |
mitigations and moderation is to make sure we do this properly. Based | :43:03. | :43:09. | |
water quality, to make sure we can water quality, to make sure we can | :43:10. | :43:11. | |
do this in safe environments all limits. Also to make sure it is | :43:12. | :43:15. | |
planned properly so we do not have too many wells and it can fit into | :43:16. | :43:22. | |
the countryside. They would not allow us to bring anybody on who is | :43:23. | :43:28. | |
against it to debate with you. I understand the concerns. I have gone | :43:29. | :43:31. | |
out of my way to listen to those concerns and listen to the | :43:32. | :43:38. | |
protesters. We do have good scientists and we do believe we can | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
do this safely but we need to see the evidence of that. I understand | :43:42. | :43:45. | |
that. These people also need to see that evidence. We are seeing a | :43:46. | :43:49. | |
different mix of producing electricity to keep our lights on. | :43:50. | :43:52. | |
Do we beat you need this fracking? We do. We do need a mix. I'm a | :43:53. | :43:59. | |
massive supporter of renewables. This is not gas or renewables, we | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
need both and we need nuclear. We import around 45% of our gas, 70% by | :44:05. | :44:11. | |
2030. We can produce it and if we can produce it, it is better than | :44:12. | :44:15. | |
importing it. This is one of the most beautiful areas in the country, | :44:16. | :44:18. | |
the right place? We have one stop the right place? We have one stop | :44:19. | :44:27. | |
pollution that there are no surface sites in national parks. We need to | :44:28. | :44:33. | |
make sure it is planned properly so we do not damage the countryside and | :44:34. | :44:36. | |
the landscape looks like it will look in a few years' time. I believe | :44:37. | :44:41. | |
we can do that. Thank you very much. With that, from here in Kirby | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
Misperton, it is back to the studio. Joining me in the studio | :44:46. | :44:48. | |
is Andrew Cooper, Green Party Energy Spokesman | :44:49. | :44:50. | |
and also a councillor in Kirklees. And Roger Helmer UKIP | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
Energy Spokesman What do you make of the reassurances | :44:56. | :45:10. | |
in place for fracking to be carried in place for fracking to be carried | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
out safely? I think the evidence would fly in the face of that. If | :45:17. | :45:20. | |
you look at Conservative MEPs, they voted against strict fracking | :45:21. | :45:25. | |
regulations in Brussels. They voted against those. If we are supposed | :45:26. | :45:30. | |
have a strict regime, why did they vote against them? Actually, if you | :45:31. | :45:34. | |
look at the regulations we have, those were regulations put in place | :45:35. | :45:40. | |
before fracking for gas exploration. You support fracking, do the Obama | :45:41. | :45:45. | |
to risks not bother you? They have been grossly exaggerated. The Green | :45:46. | :45:48. | |
Party has today huge disservice to the British economy and working | :45:49. | :45:54. | |
people by exaggerating very small risks. I have been to Pennsylvania | :45:55. | :45:58. | |
and Texas. I never met anybody that was concerned about these issues | :45:59. | :46:02. | |
about quality and water quality. I met people who were excited about | :46:03. | :46:05. | |
the economic opportunities that were presented. This could be like North | :46:06. | :46:07. | |
Sea gas all over again. Across Sea gas all over again. Across | :46:08. | :46:09. | |
Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire, and Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire, and | :46:10. | :46:14. | |
Lincolnshire, people remember the coal industry, they were very upset | :46:15. | :46:17. | |
when the coal industry closed down. We have got the opportunity of shale | :46:18. | :46:23. | |
gas, which is much cleaner and much safer and a much better proposition | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
at offers similar economic opportunities will stop North Sea | :46:28. | :46:32. | |
gas all over again, I Bloomer. -- a boom. Why are doctors in the meadow | :46:33. | :46:39. | |
called profession asking for a moratorium on fracking because of | :46:40. | :46:42. | |
the impact on health of local people there? If it is that safe, you would | :46:43. | :46:48. | |
expect medical professionals to have a different view. Why do people not | :46:49. | :46:55. | |
want fracking in their backyard? They are not convinced of the | :46:56. | :47:02. | |
by this constant propaganda, talking by this constant propaganda, talking | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
of earthquakes. There has never been an earthquake as a result of | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
fracking. There have been some reminder of tremors on the same | :47:11. | :47:13. | |
level as natural background seismic activity. There have been one or two | :47:14. | :47:19. | |
small incidents of water contamination in the States. The | :47:20. | :47:21. | |
industry is getting very much better, very much safer, better | :47:22. | :47:27. | |
controls in place. As I say, the economic opportunity, the energy | :47:28. | :47:33. | |
security, the effect on our balance, the prospect of new opportunities. | :47:34. | :47:42. | |
Really, we ought to seize this. Is there scaremongering going on? I | :47:43. | :47:47. | |
don't think so. For the United States, the having lots of examples | :47:48. | :47:50. | |
of water contamination is, impacts on health. There are a lot of | :47:51. | :47:58. | |
alternatives to fracking, energy efficiency, insulation, renewables. | :47:59. | :48:00. | |
These are better alternatives that These are better alternatives that | :48:01. | :48:06. | |
do not have the impact of fracking 's. We are on the edge of power cuts | :48:07. | :48:13. | |
through the winter. That is true. Talk to the National Grid. They | :48:14. | :48:17. | |
break close. The margin of safety is very small. The things you are | :48:18. | :48:20. | |
trying to do to substitute for real trying to do to substitute for real | :48:21. | :48:24. | |
power generation are just not delivering. The bitter irony is that | :48:25. | :48:29. | |
because of the intermittency of wind power, we actually having to rely on | :48:30. | :48:31. | |
diesel generators to fill in the gaps. This is utter nonsense. It is | :48:32. | :48:37. | |
not, this is happening. Check the facts. If you look right the way | :48:38. | :48:43. | |
across Europe, we have a low percentage of our energy coming from | :48:44. | :48:45. | |
renewables. Other countries across the European Union have 50% plus of | :48:46. | :48:50. | |
their energy coming from renewable sources. If it is possible that, why | :48:51. | :48:55. | |
is it not possible in the UK? We will talk about this now. Let's move | :48:56. | :48:58. | |
on from fracking while the debate continues. | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
While the debate continues about fracking, | :49:01. | :49:01. | |
the Government is determined to phase out our reliance on coal. | :49:02. | :49:04. | |
So where does renewable energy fit into the mix? | :49:05. | :49:06. | |
Danish energy giant Dong plans to spend ?6 billion | :49:07. | :49:08. | |
on the Humber, building the world's biggest windfarm. | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
And Siemens will open its wind turbine blade factory | :49:13. | :49:15. | |
But some in the industry are calling for a long-term commitment | :49:16. | :49:19. | |
from ministers on the future of green energy. | :49:20. | :49:23. | |
Flying over the Humber and out to the North Sea, | :49:24. | :49:31. | |
you soon get a sense of how the renewable energy boom | :49:32. | :49:34. | |
is transforming the horizon and this area's economy. | :49:35. | :49:37. | |
You know how big the Humber Bridge is, | :49:38. | :49:39. | |
but each one of those 35 turbines is taller than the Humber Bridge. | :49:40. | :49:44. | |
this is the Westermost Rough Wind Farm, | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
How much energy do these turbines create? | :49:49. | :49:54. | |
Just these turbines here will make enough energy | :49:55. | :49:57. | |
to meet the power needs of 190,000 UK homes. | :49:58. | :50:02. | |
DONG Energy plans to invest ?6 billion on the Humber by 2020. | :50:03. | :50:07. | |
At the board of Grimsby, fishing boats have been replaced | :50:08. | :50:10. | |
This building down here, right next to the famous tower, | :50:11. | :50:16. | |
that's where we've got our warehouse, our offices, | :50:17. | :50:21. | |
that's where our technicians set off from to do their day's work. | :50:22. | :50:27. | |
And you could have chosen to base your operations | :50:28. | :50:29. | |
The Humber and Grimsby are ideal for that. | :50:30. | :50:35. | |
This part of the North Sea is where those great sites are. | :50:36. | :50:38. | |
You know, this is also where we can recruit and train | :50:39. | :50:41. | |
the skilled workforce we need to do this. | :50:42. | :50:44. | |
While on the north bank of the Humber, | :50:45. | :50:46. | |
Siemens opens its multi-million pound factory next month. | :50:47. | :50:50. | |
Layer after layer of fibreglass, and the blades are taking shape. | :50:51. | :50:55. | |
you get a real sense of the scale of this structure. | :50:56. | :50:59. | |
and has been handcrafted by workers here in Hull. | :51:00. | :51:09. | |
This is one of the first batches that will be done. | :51:10. | :51:11. | |
To what extent can this investment transform this area's economy? | :51:12. | :51:15. | |
This is one of the biggest investments we're making globally, | :51:16. | :51:18. | |
and has been for the last number of years. | :51:19. | :51:21. | |
We're in the process of creating 1,000 jobs. | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
We've already recruited over 600 people. | :51:25. | :51:26. | |
We had 23,000 applications to work for us. | :51:27. | :51:29. | |
Does Siemens need more clarity from the Government | :51:30. | :51:31. | |
Post 2020, the Government has indicated that it will continue | :51:32. | :51:38. | |
to invest in offshore wind, has given us indicative numbers | :51:39. | :51:42. | |
We obviously would have liked more than that, and we like that | :51:43. | :51:47. | |
But that's dependent also on the industry reducing its costs. | :51:48. | :51:53. | |
The Humber promotes itself as the "Energy Estuary", | :51:54. | :51:57. | |
and Immingham is the UK's energy port, | :51:58. | :51:59. | |
helping to keep the nation's lights on. | :52:00. | :52:03. | |
the Humber ports are having to adapt as well. | :52:04. | :52:08. | |
Coal imports are dropping, and more wood pellets, | :52:09. | :52:10. | |
known as biomass, are being brought in by boat from North America. | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
We handle ?75 billion worth of cargo in this port, | :52:16. | :52:18. | |
so our importance both nationally and locally is not in doubt. | :52:19. | :52:23. | |
We certainly are the Energy Estuary and the mix of power sources - coal, | :52:24. | :52:28. | |
bio mass, offshore wind, gas - they all have a role to play. | :52:29. | :52:32. | |
These energy companies are shrugging off any Brexit uncertainty. | :52:33. | :52:36. | |
and the economic future of this area, like its past, | :52:37. | :52:40. | |
The wind power industry is providing billions of pounds worth of | :52:41. | :52:56. | |
investment, thousands of new jobs. This is a real reddish success | :52:57. | :53:00. | |
story, isn't it? The taxpayer and the energy use are providing the | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
money and the big question for the wind industry, and the one hand they | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
tell us that they have hit the holy grail of grid parity, they are | :53:08. | :53:10. | |
competitive with other sources of energy, but they also tell us they | :53:11. | :53:14. | |
cannot go on without a financial commitment from the Government. | :53:15. | :53:17. | |
Those two propositions don't stack up. The fact is, when you pay for | :53:18. | :53:21. | |
the back-up that you have to have for intermittent wind, it is still | :53:22. | :53:26. | |
very expensive. I appreciate the jobs that are being created on the | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
harbour history, if you put a tonne of money into place, you will get | :53:31. | :53:33. | |
jobs and that is good. It a misallocation of resources and it is | :53:34. | :53:38. | |
the consumer generally who was paying for it, either through tax or | :53:39. | :53:41. | |
energy prices. You heard that point there, wind energy is it Spencer, | :53:42. | :53:48. | |
we're all paying for it. There have been ?1 billion of tax subsidies | :53:49. | :53:50. | |
offered by the governor to the oil and gas sector. That is where some | :53:51. | :53:58. | |
of the real... If you don't mind it dropping. That is where the real | :53:59. | :54:01. | |
subsidy comes from. Banning issues have been set aside for fracking, | :54:02. | :54:04. | |
rides have been offered to communities for fracking. This is | :54:05. | :54:07. | |
where the real subsidy actually lies. If we look at energy | :54:08. | :54:16. | |
efficiency, renewables, solar, wind, tidal, wave, there are huge | :54:17. | :54:19. | |
opportunities and the UK is not taking advantage of those. We are | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
way down... But the energy regulator is saying we will be paying 7% now | :54:24. | :54:36. | |
bills, in taxes, for the year. Some of the taxes are for Hinkley C. That | :54:37. | :54:49. | |
will largely benefit French and Chinese governors. That is not | :54:50. | :54:53. | |
renewable. It is considered as that. We know that Donald Trump is not a | :54:54. | :54:59. | |
think it is a hoax, like him? I think it is a hoax, like him? I | :55:00. | :55:06. | |
don't think it is a hoax. It is a misinterpretation of the data. That | :55:07. | :55:13. | |
we can fiddle with that variable and turn the climate down is Frankie | :55:14. | :55:15. | |
absurd. To that extent, I would agree with him. That is not the view | :55:16. | :55:19. | |
of climate scientists, the people who understand and know this will | :55:20. | :55:23. | |
stop he can believe what he wants to believe, but the site says that | :55:24. | :55:26. | |
man-made climate change is actually happening. Part of the sites. There | :55:27. | :55:30. | |
are many side is to take a completely different view. Don't | :55:31. | :55:34. | |
give me the 97 cents figure, because it is false. It is not. It is | :55:35. | :55:38. | |
utterly amongst those who are actually climate scientists. Donald | :55:39. | :55:42. | |
Trump says he will possibly pull out of the Paris agreement on climate | :55:43. | :55:45. | |
change. Are we now seeing the end of this worldwide consensus when it | :55:46. | :55:50. | |
comes to ending our reliance on fossil fuels? We have got to see if | :55:51. | :55:55. | |
we can get past post-truth politics in. The truth is that climate change | :55:56. | :56:02. | |
is affected by human activity. When Donald Trump sits down, hopefully, | :56:03. | :56:08. | |
with people who really do understand the science, they will expire the | :56:09. | :56:10. | |
reality to him which goes beyond his beliefs. We have got to get to a | :56:11. | :56:16. | |
point whereby we actually act on evidence as opposed to what people | :56:17. | :56:22. | |
just think what oil and gas lobbyists say. Are we going to be | :56:23. | :56:25. | |
less green after Brexit? You will have to ask the Government of the | :56:26. | :56:29. | |
day. I can tell you about the Paris climate agreement but Jilly was not | :56:30. | :56:32. | |
worth the paper it was written on originally, because there is no firm | :56:33. | :56:36. | |
commitment, there is no mechanism for enforcing any commitments | :56:37. | :56:42. | |
countries have made. A new American president who is guaranteed to pull | :56:43. | :56:46. | |
out of it, it is a dead letter. I don't think it is guaranteed. Let's | :56:47. | :56:49. | |
hope there is a change of heart. We have got the nationally determined | :56:50. | :56:53. | |
contributions, which are part of the Paris climate agreement. I think we | :56:54. | :57:02. | |
should honourably work towards those. Those sort of things are | :57:03. | :57:07. | |
important because the future of the human race actually depends on them. | :57:08. | :57:10. | |
You can believe that, but it is not true. The site says it is so. The | :57:11. | :57:14. | |
site is eight complex, chaotic system. I can see you will not agree | :57:15. | :57:20. | |
on this. There are scientists who know about climate change... Not | :57:21. | :57:29. | |
climate scientists. This is a big debate. We will get you back and let | :57:30. | :57:32. | |
you go into more detail some other time. | :57:33. | :57:33. | |
Now let's catch up with the rest of the week's political news. | :57:34. | :57:36. | |
Richard Edwards has our round-up in 60 Seconds. | :57:37. | :57:42. | |
The Government says it's full steam ahead with the second phase | :57:43. | :57:45. | |
of the high-speed rail route to Leeds, | :57:46. | :57:47. | |
but no decision on where it will run | :57:48. | :57:49. | |
through South Yorkshire until next year. | :57:50. | :57:50. | |
Harrogate MP and Transport Minister Andrew Jones | :57:51. | :57:53. | |
promised there would be no impact on small projects. | :57:54. | :57:57. | |
We are not slowing down on our development | :57:58. | :57:59. | |
of any other of our transport infrastructures. | :58:00. | :58:02. | |
The amount of money which is actually being spent | :58:03. | :58:04. | |
on other modes of transport is greater than on HS2. | :58:05. | :58:07. | |
But, just a day later, it emerged that the electrification | :58:08. | :58:10. | |
of the rail line from Selby to Hull was being abandoned. | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
After weeks of wrangling, the row over who should replace | :58:15. | :58:16. | |
Timothy Kirkhope as Yorkshire and the Humber's Conservative MEP | :58:17. | :58:19. | |
after his elevation to the House of Lords has finally been sorted. | :58:20. | :58:23. | |
It will be Leeds councillor John Procter, one of the list of six | :58:24. | :58:26. | |
originally selected to fight the 2014 Euro elections. | :58:27. | :58:31. | |
And Shipley Conservative MP Philip Davies | :58:32. | :58:33. | |
used a special Commons debate ahead of International Men's Day | :58:34. | :58:36. | |
to highlight the inequalities he says are faced by men and boys. | :58:37. | :58:47. | |
You both degree on climate change. One thing you do agree on is neither | :58:48. | :58:53. | |
of you are of HS2, are you? Absolutely right. I agree. There are | :58:54. | :58:58. | |
better things we could be investing money into, public transport, robust | :58:59. | :59:03. | |
services that are under threat and closing right the way across the | :59:04. | :59:09. | |
region. That is where we need the investment, not trying to get to | :59:10. | :59:13. | |
London or away from London half an hour more quickly. Not convinced by | :59:14. | :59:18. | |
the economic arguments? It is a vanity project. It is like the | :59:19. | :59:21. | |
Concord argument, we spent so much time and money on it, we can't stop | :59:22. | :59:26. | |
now. They should stop now because they're docking at ?80 billion on | :59:27. | :59:28. | |
something that makes little difference to the economy. It could | :59:29. | :59:34. | |
be spent on local government, it could be said of services, the | :59:35. | :59:36. | |
services that are under threat at the moment across the area. Or other | :59:37. | :59:40. | |
rail projects that are more relevant and useful. The improvements to the | :59:41. | :59:47. | |
lines. The governance says differently, but they will have to | :59:48. | :59:49. | |
sort out about Sheffield first. Thank you for your thoughts today. | :59:50. | :59:55. | |
Now let's go back to Andrew Neil in London. | :59:56. | :59:58. | |
never happened and will not happen in four years. It is subject we | :59:59. | :00:00. | |
should spend more time on. Back to in four years. It is subject we | :00:01. | :00:01. | |
you. What will the Chancellor have to say | :00:02. | :00:10. | |
in his first big economic statement? What impact will the forecasters say | :00:11. | :00:14. | |
Brexit will have on the economy? And who will face the Front | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
National's Marine Le Pen in Well, the Shadow Chancellor | :00:18. | :00:20. | |
and the Chancellor have both been touring the television | :00:21. | :00:35. | |
studios this morning. Let's be clear, a lot of this | :00:36. | :00:36. | |
is going to be gimmicks and press As I've said, in the | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
pipeline, we've only seen one in five delivered | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
to construction, that's all. So a lot of this will be a repeat | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
of what I'm not going to reveal | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
what I'm going to say on We don't have unlimited | :00:53. | :00:55. | |
capacity, as one might imagine from listening | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
to John McDonnell, to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds more | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
for discretionary spending. That simply doesn't | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
exist if we're going to retain this country's hard-won | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
credibility in the financial markets if we are going to remain | :01:12. | :01:14. | |
an attractive place for business to We didn't learn very much, Helen, | :01:15. | :01:30. | |
but the papers were briefed this morning that there will be another | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
?1.3 billion for roads and things like that. ?1.3 billion is 0.08% of | :01:34. | :01:45. | |
our GDP. Not exactly an infrastructure investment programme, | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
is it? Yellow like I have to say, it was not thrilling to read the | :01:49. | :01:57. | |
details. -- I have to say... It is the first big financial statement | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
that is going to come and I think there will be a big row about the | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
OBE are forecast because they cannot set out a range, they have to commit | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
to one forecast. Everything they do is incredibly political. DOB are is | :02:10. | :02:19. | |
on a hiding to nothing. -- DOB are -- the Office for Budget | :02:20. | :02:26. | |
Responsibility. I don't know how they will square the circle. It is | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
an interesting week. It is all about the economy and public finances and | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
we don't have to talk about Brexit until next Sunday, but no, I have a | :02:34. | :02:38. | |
terrible feeling that by the end of Wednesday afternoon we will be | :02:39. | :02:48. | |
screaming and shouting about how Brexit is going to be for the | :02:49. | :02:51. | |
economy. Just imagine the Treasury comes out with his forecast that it | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
is going to collapse growth and collapsed Treasury takings, people | :02:56. | :03:04. | |
will be apoplectic. Until now, the economy has continued to grow | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
strongly. Pretty well. They cannot say, we have noticed it slowing down | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
and that will continue. They have to take a punt if they think it will | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
slow down. It affects the Chancellor's figures, because the | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
more they say it is slowing down, and I have seen that it will go from | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
2% down to 1.4%, the more the Chancellor's deficit rises even | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
without any more tax cuts and spending. Absolutely. I think Tom is | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
right. What we will see this week is a continuation of the debate we have | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
been having all along. If the Office for Budget Responsibility has | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
negative and gloomy predictions, there will be howls of agony, and | :03:44. | :03:53. | |
rightly howls of frustration from Brexiteers who will say that all the | :03:54. | :03:56. | |
dire predictions from before the referendum have not come to pass and | :03:57. | :04:00. | |
now you are talking things down in a way that becomes a self-fulfilling | :04:01. | :04:07. | |
prophecy. The money for roads, you were dismissive about it, but every | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
little helps. I don't dismiss it, I say it doesn't amount to a fiscal | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
stimulus in macro economic terms. I'm sure if you are on that road, it | :04:18. | :04:26. | |
will be useful. They are going to build a super highway between Oxford | :04:27. | :04:33. | |
and Cambridge. I would like to see them go out to Japan and learn how | :04:34. | :04:41. | |
to fill a hole in two days. I would suggest the road from Oxford to | :04:42. | :04:44. | |
Cambridge is not for the just managing classes, even though it | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
goes through Milton Keynes, and that simply freezing due freezing fuel | :04:49. | :04:59. | |
duty isn't going to hack it, either. These just about managing people are | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
potentially quite a big band. With income tax rises, it means anything | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
you do to help them is incredibly expensive. The universal credit | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
freeze is an interesting example of that. Philip Hammond sounded | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
ambivalent about it after pre-briefings that it might not, the | :05:18. | :05:25. | |
cuts might not go ahead. There are people who are in work but because | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
they are low paid don't have the number of hours, they require | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
welfare benefits to top up their pay, and these welfare benefits, as | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
it stands, are frozen until 2020, and yet inflation is now starting to | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
rise. That's a problem for the just managing people. Correct. It is | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
worse than that, because we are talking about April 2017 when tax | :05:50. | :05:57. | |
credits become universal credits, so the squeeze will be greater. We will | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
get a small highway between a couple of university towns, but if he has | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
any money left to spend at all, it will be on some pretty seismic | :06:09. | :06:14. | |
jazzman for the just about managing people. I am so glad we're not | :06:15. | :06:20. | |
calling them Jams on this programme, because it is a patronising tone. | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
What the Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor did not confront is that | :06:27. | :06:35. | |
Mr Trump's election is a watershed in terms of being able to borrow | :06:36. | :06:39. | |
cheaply. The Federal Reserve is about to start raising rates. The | :06:40. | :06:42. | |
days of cheap borrowing for governments could be coming to an | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
end. You can feel a bit sorry for labour here because after having had | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
six years of being told that we need a surplus and these things are | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
important, we can't deny the deficit, we have switched now and | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
the first thing that Philip Hammond did was to scrap George Osborne's | :06:59. | :07:05. | |
borrowing targets. He has given himself more wriggle room than | :07:06. | :07:08. | |
George Osborne had. He has and it will cost them more. Debt servicing | :07:09. | :07:16. | |
will now rise as a cost. Where is the next political earthquake going | :07:17. | :07:17. | |
to happen? It could be Italy, or the French | :07:18. | :07:24. | |
elections coming up next spring. Now, who will face the Front | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
National's Marine Le Pen in next year's French Presidential | :07:31. | :07:33. | |
elections? Well, France's centre-right | :07:34. | :07:34. | |
part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate | :07:35. | :07:36. | |
in the first round of Well, France's centre-right | :07:37. | :07:38. | |
part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate | :07:39. | :07:40. | |
in the first round of Let's speak to our correspondent | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
in Paris, Hugh Schofield. Welcome to the programme. Three main | :07:45. | :07:57. | |
candidates, the former -- two former prime ministers and Nicolas Sarkozy, | :07:58. | :08:03. | |
the former president. It is not clear who the front runner is. | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
Robbins it is quite an exciting race, because four weeks it did look | :08:08. | :08:17. | |
as if it was going to be Juppe. It is a two round race. Two go through | :08:18. | :08:25. | |
and the idea is that they rally all the support together. It looked like | :08:26. | :08:29. | |
the first round would be dominated by Juppe and Nicolas Sarkozy, and | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
there was a clear binary combination there, because Sarkozy was looking | :08:34. | :08:42. | |
for squeamish far right voters. In other words, veering clearly to the | :08:43. | :08:44. | |
right and far right on immigration and identity issues. And Juppe is | :08:45. | :08:51. | |
the opposite, saying we had to appeal to the centre. That was what | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
it looked like. But the third candidate has made this really quite | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
staggering surge in the last few days. There was a debate on Thursday | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
and he was deemed to have won it on television. He is coming up | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
strongly, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go through, | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
which would be interesting from a British perspective, because if the | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
becomes president, he will be the first president with a British wife. | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
His wife Penelope is Welsh. We will have to leave it there. I | :09:24. | :09:31. | |
would suggest that the reason it is fascinating is that whoever wins | :09:32. | :09:33. | |
this primary for the centre-right party is likely to be the next | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
president, and who the next president is will be very important | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
for Britain in these Brexit negotiations. Nothing will really | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
happen until it is determined. Then after the German elections in | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
October. I would add one more constituent part. The most important | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
thing about the race is who can stop Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen will | :09:57. | :10:03. | |
almost be one of the ones in the run-off. The Socialists don't expect | :10:04. | :10:12. | |
much. Francois Hollande is done. There is too much of a cliff to | :10:13. | :10:19. | |
climb. Which one of these three centre-right candidates can stop | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
Marine Le Pen? We have had Brexit and Trump, but we could also have | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
Marine Le Pen. If it is Sarkozy, it is the battle of the right. In some | :10:29. | :10:36. | |
areas, he has moved to the right of marine Le Pen. I suppose he feels he | :10:37. | :10:43. | |
has do in order to take the wind out of our sails. You wonder if she | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
could succeed later on if she does not this time. Talking to French | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
analysts last night, there was suggesting that she could not do it | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
this time but could win the next time. All the events in France over | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
the last year seemed to provide the most propitious circumstances for | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
her to do well, and particularly if you throw in Trump and Brexit. | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
Suppose it is Mr Sarkozy, and he goes through and wins the Republican | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
nomination, and he and Marine Le Pen go through to the second round, that | :11:14. | :11:20. | |
would mean, think about it, is that a lot of French socialist voters and | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
those on the father left would have to grit their teeth and vote for | :11:25. | :11:32. | |
Nicolas Sarkozy. They might not do it. We might see what we saw in | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
America, where lots of potential Clinton voters did not turn out. You | :11:37. | :11:48. | |
got politicians like Melanchon on the far left saying there are | :11:49. | :11:51. | |
foreign workers taking bread out of French workers' mounts. We sometimes | :11:52. | :11:58. | |
forget, because we tend to emphasise the National of the National front, | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
but actually, there are economic policy is quite Bennite. Sarkozy is | :12:05. | :12:15. | |
the Hillary Clinton of the French elections. He is Mr establishment. | :12:16. | :12:27. | |
Juppe and the other third candidate are the same. You have to | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
re-establish candidates running against an antiestablishment | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
candidate. There are populist economic policies from the National | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
front. The other three want to raise the retirement age and cut back on | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
the 35 hour week, which are not classic electoral appeals. Mr Juppe | :12:43. | :12:51. | |
used to be the Mayor of Bordeaux. And we are the biggest importers of | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
claret, so that could have an effect. In 2002, it was Jack Shear | :12:55. | :13:03. | |
against John Marine Le Pen, and the socialist campaign slogan was, vote | :13:04. | :13:11. | |
for the Crook, not the fascist. We will see what they come up with this | :13:12. | :13:12. | |
time. The Daily Politics is back at noon | :13:13. | :13:14. | |
tomorrow on BBC Two, where on Wednesday I will have full | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
coverage of the Chancellor's Autumn But remember, if it's Sunday, | :13:20. | :13:25. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:26. | :13:34. |