27/11/2016 Sunday Politics Yorkshire and Lincolnshire


27/11/2016

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:40.

Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

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After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

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Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

:00:50.:00:53.

The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

:00:54.:00:59.

Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

:01:00.:01:01.

of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

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Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

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minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.

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On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire,

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we find out what's being done to avert a winter crisis in the NHS.

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Can our hospitals cope with increased demand

:01:20.:01:20.

And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

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Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

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of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

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to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

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Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

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as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

:01:59.:02:02.

justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

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President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

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as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

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would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

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finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

:02:17.:02:21.

Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

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Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

:02:23.:02:26.

was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

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I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

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reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

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noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

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Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

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was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

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agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

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people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

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inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

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consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

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respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

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be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

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Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

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looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

:03:34.:03:39.

for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

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dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

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He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

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wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

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look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

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countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

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champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

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utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

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thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

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failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

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Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

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debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

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criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

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were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

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have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

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solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

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existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

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who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

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saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

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world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

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never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

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ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

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lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

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stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

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working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

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will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

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and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

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it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

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that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

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Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

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open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

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brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

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When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

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the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

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all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

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leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

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decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

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was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

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worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

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There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

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sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

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Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

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deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

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And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

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Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

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That was what made it so fascinating.

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Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

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in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

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on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

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Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

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"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

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but some of the proposals are already running into local

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opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

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Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

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But east of England ambulance call operators

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they're sending an early intervention vehicle

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with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

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It's being piloted here for over 65s with

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When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

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treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

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Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

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taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

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So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

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The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

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to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

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to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

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where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

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best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

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that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

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This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

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You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

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The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

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What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

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Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

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through after broad public and political consultation

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with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

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It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

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trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

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It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

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The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

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in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

:10:27.:10:32.

worth of efficiencies across the country.

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In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

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and care partnerships, and each one will provide

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a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

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provide better services and save money.

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So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

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in the health service and local government,

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The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

:10:55.:11:01.

growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

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STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

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But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

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of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

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ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

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This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

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I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

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all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

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of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

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That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

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All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

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But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

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The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

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for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

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The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

:12:10.:12:12.

within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

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There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

:12:17.:12:20.

Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

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about the importance of community hospitals in general,

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These are proposals out to consultation.

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What could happen if these plans get blocked?

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If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

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to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

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deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

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The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

:12:50.:12:56.

but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

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are in the interests of local people.

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Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

:13:05.:13:07.

to push through these controversial regional plans,

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which will soon face public scrutiny.

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We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

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I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

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Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

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efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

:13:42.:13:44.

independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

:13:45.:13:49.

billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

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drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

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been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

:13:57.:14:00.

some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

:14:01.:14:04.

pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

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pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

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GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

:14:13.:14:17.

which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

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local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

:14:25.:14:30.

efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

:14:31.:14:34.

Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

:14:35.:14:41.

health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

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transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

:14:48.:14:51.

health, mental health and social care, for those services to

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collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

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system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

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has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

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the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

:15:09.:15:13.

2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

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redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

:15:18.:15:23.

money in. So of course, getting these services working better

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together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

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have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

:15:30.:15:34.

last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

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an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

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Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

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billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

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But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

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said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

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changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

:16:10.:16:14.

2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

:16:15.:16:20.

20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

:16:21.:16:24.

transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

:16:25.:16:29.

commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

:16:30.:16:33.

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

:16:34.:16:38.

project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

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Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

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there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

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efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

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2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

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for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

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everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

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and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

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had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

:17:20.:17:26.

expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

:17:27.:17:30.

now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

:17:31.:17:35.

To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

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budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

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co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

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plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

:17:59.:18:04.

2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

:18:05.:18:08.

committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

:18:09.:18:14.

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

:18:15.:18:19.

talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

:18:20.:18:24.

spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

:18:25.:18:27.

money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

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you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

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the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

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That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

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Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

:18:59.:19:03.

give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

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Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

:19:07.:19:11.

it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

:19:12.:19:16.

the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

:19:17.:19:19.

any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

:19:20.:19:23.

the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

:19:24.:19:29.

I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

:19:30.:19:32.

with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

:19:33.:19:35.

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

:19:36.:19:40.

You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

:19:41.:19:45.

a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

:19:46.:19:50.

to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

:19:51.:19:55.

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

:19:56.:20:00.

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

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substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

:20:05.:20:08.

access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

:20:09.:20:17.

be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

:20:18.:20:21.

in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

:20:22.:20:27.

this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

:20:28.:20:32.

efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

:20:33.:20:37.

agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

:20:38.:20:42.

productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

:20:43.:20:49.

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

:20:50.:20:56.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

:20:57.:21:03.

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

:21:04.:21:06.

that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

:21:07.:21:10.

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

:21:11.:21:14.

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

:21:15.:21:20.

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

:21:21.:21:27.

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

:21:28.:21:31.

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

:21:32.:21:35.

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

:21:36.:21:40.

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

:21:41.:21:44.

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

:21:45.:21:47.

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

:21:48.:21:52.

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

:21:53.:21:55.

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

:21:56.:22:03.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

:22:04.:22:09.

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

:22:10.:22:12.

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

:22:13.:22:17.

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

:22:18.:22:20.

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

:22:21.:22:24.

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

:22:25.:22:28.

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

:22:29.:22:33.

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

:22:34.:22:39.

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

:22:40.:22:46.

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

:22:47.:22:52.

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

:22:53.:22:56.

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

:22:57.:23:00.

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

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if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

:23:06.:23:08.

have the support of local authorities because they now have a

:23:09.:23:11.

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

:23:12.:23:15.

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

:23:16.:23:20.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

:23:21.:23:23.

don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

:23:24.:23:29.

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

:23:30.:23:33.

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

:23:34.:23:39.

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

:23:40.:23:45.

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

:23:46.:23:49.

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

:23:50.:23:53.

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

:23:54.:23:58.

sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

:23:59.:24:02.

sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

:24:03.:24:07.

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

:24:08.:24:13.

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

:24:14.:24:18.

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

:24:19.:24:24.

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

:24:25.:24:29.

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

:24:30.:24:35.

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

:24:36.:24:39.

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

:24:40.:24:43.

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

:24:44.:24:46.

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

:24:47.:24:53.

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

:24:54.:24:55.

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

:24:56.:25:00.

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

:25:01.:25:05.

whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

:25:06.:25:09.

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

:25:10.:25:11.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

:25:12.:25:14.

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

:25:15.:25:16.

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

:25:17.:25:19.

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

:25:20.:25:22.

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

:25:23.:25:25.

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

:25:26.:25:27.

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

:25:28.:25:31.

that the referendum result could be reversed.

:25:32.:25:34.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

:25:35.:25:37.

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

:25:38.:25:40.

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

:25:41.:25:42.

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

:25:43.:25:49.

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

:25:50.:25:51.

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

:25:52.:25:53.

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

:25:54.:25:56.

That prompted the former Conservative leader

:25:57.:26:00.

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

:26:01.:26:03.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

:26:04.:26:05.

because they disagree with the original result does

:26:06.:26:08.

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

:26:09.:26:13.

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

:26:14.:26:16.

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

:26:17.:26:20.

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

:26:21.:26:24.

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

:26:25.:26:27.

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

:26:28.:26:31.

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

:26:32.:26:34.

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

:26:35.:26:39.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

:26:40.:26:43.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

:26:44.:26:46.

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

:26:47.:26:48.

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

:26:49.:26:56.

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

:26:57.:26:59.

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

:27:00.:27:03.

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

:27:04.:27:05.

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

:27:06.:27:17.

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

:27:18.:27:22.

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

:27:23.:27:29.

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

:27:30.:27:33.

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

:27:34.:27:37.

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

:27:38.:27:43.

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

:27:44.:27:50.

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

:27:51.:27:57.

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

:27:58.:28:01.

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

:28:02.:28:06.

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

:28:07.:28:10.

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

:28:11.:28:18.

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

:28:19.:28:24.

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

:28:25.:28:28.

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

:28:29.:28:33.

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

:28:34.:28:38.

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

:28:39.:28:41.

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

:28:42.:28:46.

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

:28:47.:28:50.

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

:28:51.:28:55.

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

:28:56.:28:59.

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

:29:00.:29:05.

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

:29:06.:29:10.

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

:29:11.:29:13.

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

:29:14.:29:16.

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

:29:17.:29:25.

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

:29:26.:29:29.

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

:29:30.:29:33.

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

:29:34.:29:38.

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

:29:39.:29:42.

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

:29:43.:29:48.

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

:29:49.:29:52.

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

:29:53.:29:56.

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

:29:57.:29:59.

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

:30:00.:30:05.

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

:30:06.:30:11.

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

:30:12.:30:16.

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

:30:17.:30:20.

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

:30:21.:30:24.

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

:30:25.:30:28.

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

:30:29.:30:30.

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

:30:31.:30:40.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

:30:41.:30:44.

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

:30:45.:30:46.

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

:30:47.:30:49.

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

:30:50.:30:54.

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

:30:55.:30:58.

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

:30:59.:31:01.

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

:31:02.:31:05.

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

:31:06.:31:10.

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

:31:11.:31:16.

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

:31:17.:31:18.

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

:31:19.:31:24.

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

:31:25.:31:27.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

:31:28.:31:31.

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

:31:32.:31:36.

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

:31:37.:31:43.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

:31:44.:31:50.

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

:31:51.:31:53.

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

:31:54.:32:01.

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

:32:02.:32:06.

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

:32:07.:32:09.

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

:32:10.:32:16.

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

:32:17.:32:20.

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

:32:21.:32:25.

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

:32:26.:32:31.

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

:32:32.:32:42.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

:32:43.:32:50.

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

:32:51.:32:55.

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

:32:56.:32:59.

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

:33:00.:33:03.

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

:33:04.:33:09.

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

:33:10.:33:19.

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

:33:20.:33:22.

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

:33:23.:33:32.

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

:33:33.:33:36.

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

:33:37.:33:42.

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

:33:43.:33:46.

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

:33:47.:33:51.

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

:33:52.:34:03.

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

:34:04.:34:07.

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

:34:08.:34:16.

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

:34:17.:34:27.

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

:34:28.:34:32.

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

:34:33.:34:36.

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

:34:37.:34:45.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

:34:46.:34:51.

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

:34:52.:34:55.

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

:34:56.:35:00.

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

:35:01.:35:06.

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

:35:07.:35:09.

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

:35:10.:35:13.

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

:35:14.:35:19.

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

:35:20.:35:24.

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

:35:25.:35:26.

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

:35:27.:35:30.

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

:35:31.:35:36.

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

:35:37.:35:43.

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

:35:44.:35:50.

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

:35:51.:35:53.

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

:35:54.:36:00.

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

:36:01.:36:03.

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

:36:04.:36:09.

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

:36:10.:36:13.

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

:36:14.:36:17.

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

:36:18.:36:26.

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

:36:27.:36:29.

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

:36:30.:36:38.

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

:36:39.:36:44.

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

:36:45.:36:49.

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

:36:50.:36:52.

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

:36:53.:36:55.

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

:36:56.:36:59.

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

:37:00.:37:02.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

:37:03.:37:07.

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

:37:08.:37:11.

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

:37:12.:37:18.

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

:37:19.:37:23.

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

:37:24.:37:32.

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

:37:33.:37:37.

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

:37:38.:37:40.

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

:37:41.:37:47.

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

:37:48.:37:50.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:51.:37:52.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:53.:38:01.

Yes, hello, you're watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire,

:38:02.:38:04.

We find out what's being done to avert a winter crisis in the NHS.

:38:05.:38:11.

Can our hospitals cope with increasing demand

:38:12.:38:14.

And, as the man who murdered Jo Cox begins life in prison, we ask,

:38:15.:38:20.

Our guests today are John Mann, Labour MP for Bassetlaw,

:38:21.:38:32.

who's with me in the studio, and at Westminster is

:38:33.:38:34.

Craig Whittaker, Conservative MP for Calder Valley.

:38:35.:38:36.

Hospitals will start the daily reporting of so-called

:38:37.:38:49.

to try to prevent problems that could lead to operations

:38:50.:38:53.

being cancelled and the shutdown of A units at critical times.

:38:54.:38:55.

The past two winters have been the worst for more than a decade

:38:56.:38:59.

with hospitals creaking under the strain.

:39:00.:39:00.

So, what's being done to avoid a full-blown winter crisis?

:39:01.:39:02.

Last winter, an average of around 900 people a week turned up

:39:03.:39:08.

at Harrogate's hospitals with conditions they thought

:39:09.:39:09.

so urgent they needed to go straight to the emergency departments.

:39:10.:39:13.

And this is one of the smallest and quiet hospital trusts

:39:14.:39:16.

across the whole of Yorkshire and the Humber.

:39:17.:39:19.

Down the road in Leeds it was just over 4000.

:39:20.:39:23.

For the health service, those servers billion

:39:24.:39:30.

Ask anybody who arrives on these corridors at an A department

:39:31.:39:34.

like this one here in Harrogate, "why are they here?"

:39:35.:39:36.

and the answer is usually "well, where else do you go?"

:39:37.:39:39.

Well, as far as the NHS is concerned, there are alternatives

:39:40.:39:47.

and they've just launched a big campaign for the

:39:48.:39:49.

to explain to people exactly what those alternatives are.

:39:50.:39:53.

Do you have a long-term health condition or are you over 65?

:39:54.:39:56.

Cold weather can be seriously bad for your health.

:39:57.:39:58.

But there are things you can do to stay well this winter.

:39:59.:40:01.

Make sure you get your prescription medicines before the holidays

:40:02.:40:03.

Your home should be at least 18 Celsius, 65 Fahrenheit.

:40:04.:40:08.

And if you start to feel unwell, even if it is just a cough

:40:09.:40:11.

or a cold, get help from your pharmacist before it

:40:12.:40:13.

We're all here to help you stay well this winter.

:40:14.:40:19.

But many of those turning up here at A say all that advice

:40:20.:40:22.

is very useful but if they want a doctor and can't get a GP

:40:23.:40:26.

appointment, who can blame them for going to hospital?

:40:27.:40:31.

I don't think we can ever make patients were wanting to access care

:40:32.:40:41.

I don't think we can ever blame patients for wanting to access care

:40:42.:40:44.

and that is what we provide but it is also what GPs provide both

:40:45.:40:47.

The services that are offered across the NHS to try to target

:40:48.:40:51.

being able to offer those services to patients in the right way.

:40:52.:40:54.

I think it is very difficult for us to try and get the right messages

:40:55.:40:58.

out to people about which services they need to access.

:40:59.:41:00.

We try and do that and try and assist the public in signposting

:41:01.:41:03.

But there is an argument that the winter crisis or health

:41:04.:41:07.

But there is an argument that the winter crisis for health

:41:08.:41:10.

Beds blocked by patients who should be discharged

:41:11.:41:13.

Amongst the most vocal following that line is the body

:41:14.:41:18.

Our hospitals are under huge pressure and they have

:41:19.:41:21.

been throughout the year and they will continue to be

:41:22.:41:23.

All of us need to play our part in trying to support our hospital

:41:24.:41:29.

colleagues and hospitals to run smoothly to ensure that they only

:41:30.:41:31.

treat patients who really need to be in hospital and that would try

:41:32.:41:36.

and find alternative services elsewhere for patients who don't

:41:37.:41:38.

The promised four hour waiting limits being broken regularly,

:41:39.:41:49.

and even more turning up the hospital.

:41:50.:41:51.

So, John Mann, how confident are you that the NHS can avoid

:41:52.:41:55.

If he'd been on a Saturday night he'd have seen something

:41:56.:42:10.

far more congested even than what he saw in Harrogate.

:42:11.:42:12.

Not enough money, not enough sensible decision-making

:42:13.:42:15.

and the government not even giving the public health budget to the NHS,

:42:16.:42:18.

which is needed to do some of that preventative work that the doctor

:42:19.:42:21.

Greg Whittaker, based on the last couple of years of experience it

:42:22.:42:27.

doesn't bode well for the NHS this winter, does it?

:42:28.:42:30.

I think our NHS locally has coped incredibly well over the last two

:42:31.:42:36.

years and I can speak particularly about Calderdale where we have seen

:42:37.:42:46.

an amount of money for winter contingency being given early

:42:47.:42:48.

on and the doctors planning well in advance for that smooth

:42:49.:42:51.

transition through that traditionally tough period of time.

:42:52.:42:53.

There are some big issues and John is right about things like,

:42:54.:42:56.

you know, the social care and health and well-being budgets being put

:42:57.:43:03.

into health will go a long way to help with the crisis on going.

:43:04.:43:10.

So what are you doing to lobby the government because this

:43:11.:43:13.

is the biggest concern among doctors, the fact that patients

:43:14.:43:15.

don't have anywhere to go when they beat hospital.

:43:16.:43:25.

Yes, absolutely right and actually I spok

:43:26.:43:27.

in the House of Commons only

:43:28.:43:29.

this week on that very subject and it is one of the things

:43:30.:43:32.

that the government had to look at in a real, serious way

:43:33.:43:35.

because this is a crisis and a time bomb waiting to go off.

:43:36.:43:38.

Part of the problem, John Mann, is A is seen by many not as a last

:43:39.:43:42.

resort but often the first resort because they can't

:43:43.:43:44.

Well, there isn't enough money for GPs but one thing

:43:45.:43:49.

the government could do, I have asked them to do it

:43:50.:43:51.

in my area, made a specific request of government that they have not yet

:43:52.:43:55.

responded to, which is give the whole of the social care budget

:43:56.:43:58.

for adults and the whole of the public health budget,

:43:59.:44:00.

That would mean that dealing particularly with elderly

:44:01.:44:04.

people and prevention, the NHS would have total control

:44:05.:44:07.

of the budget and that would give GPs more

:44:08.:44:09.

That would help patients and it would take some

:44:10.:44:13.

But the government is too scared, too scared, to make that

:44:14.:44:18.

decision and I'm offering, we'll go first in my area.

:44:19.:44:22.

I'll head it up in saying we'll take the risks.

:44:23.:44:26.

I say it will work and I say that'll make a huge difference

:44:27.:44:40.

and that is without a penny of extra money.

:44:41.:44:42.

But I also think we could do with more money as well.

:44:43.:44:45.

Craig Whittaker, we found out this week that two thirds of NHS

:44:46.:44:49.

The debts total and eye watering ?1.85 billion.

:44:50.:44:52.

How on earth do we expect the NHS to cope with those figures?

:44:53.:44:55.

To be fair, that budget is reducing year-on-year.

:44:56.:44:57.

They are getting the costs under control and they

:44:58.:44:59.

One thing about the NHS of course is there is still huge

:45:00.:45:03.

On the topic that John has to spoken about,

:45:04.:45:11.

it is not often I agree with John Mann but he is absolutely

:45:12.:45:14.

If we give the GPs and hospitals all this money to get on their way,

:45:15.:45:19.

there will be incentives for them to push through and stop the bed

:45:20.:45:22.

I'm absolutely in agreement with what John was saying.

:45:23.:45:30.

So, are you going to take that message to Jeremy Hunt?

:45:31.:45:33.

As I have said to you, I have already mentioned it

:45:34.:45:36.

in the House of Commons this week and there are more and more people

:45:37.:45:39.

getting on this bandwagon and realising that actually,

:45:40.:45:41.

until we get integration of budgets and stop this silo budgeting

:45:42.:45:44.

right around the NHS, then nothing is going to change,

:45:45.:45:46.

John Mann, you backed the Brexit campaign back in June.

:45:47.:45:50.

Did you ever sign up to this figure that ?350 million a week would be

:45:51.:45:53.

You will remember that I actually tackled Boris Johnson

:45:54.:45:57.

during the campaign in the Treasury Committee

:45:58.:45:58.

I did point out that there's ?650 million that we're not

:45:59.:46:05.

recharging for in governments for their residents,

:46:06.:46:07.

Not the individuals who pay the governments.

:46:08.:46:14.

The Irish government, ?200 million alone,

:46:15.:46:20.

and we're not charging them and that is every year.

:46:21.:46:22.

While over one Parliament that more than gets rid of the hospital

:46:23.:46:25.

deficits and I'm demanding that government takes proper action

:46:26.:46:27.

and listens to me on it and then, that wouldn't cost the taxpayer,

:46:28.:46:30.

There's a proposal this week that patients should have two showed

:46:31.:46:39.

There's a proposal this week that patients should have to show

:46:40.:46:42.

a passport in order to get treatment.

:46:43.:46:44.

I support the principle that if you're coming from abroad

:46:45.:46:47.

you should be recharged, ie your government,

:46:48.:46:49.

not you personally, that is the situation.

:46:50.:46:50.

Every other government in Europe does that to us, rightly so.

:46:51.:46:53.

What a nonsense that the government is throwing away

:46:54.:46:58.

That would be quite a bit of money back into our NHS.

:46:59.:47:04.

Is that something you support, Greg Whittaker, measures to crack

:47:05.:47:08.

down on the number of overseas patients using the health service?

:47:09.:47:11.

Without question, this is one of the wastages in the NHS

:47:12.:47:14.

I think John just mentioned the figure of ?650 million.

:47:15.:47:22.

Imagine how much extra that can do in our hospitals

:47:23.:47:25.

It is vitally important that the NHS start addressing some of these real

:47:26.:47:29.

wastages that are in our system and it is not because

:47:30.:47:33.

they need legislation, the legislation is already there.

:47:34.:47:36.

It is just that they refuse to do it.

:47:37.:47:39.

A topic we will come back to another time no doubt but this week's

:47:40.:47:43.

political events were of course dominated by Philip Hammond's first

:47:44.:47:45.

With our round-up in 60 seconds, here's Richard Edwards.

:47:46.:47:48.

The devil was in the detail PhilipHammond 's announcement

:47:49.:47:50.

on Wednesday with a promise the North would benefit

:47:51.:47:53.

from spending on roads, rail and broadband.

:47:54.:48:04.

I will commit an additional ?1.1 billion of investment

:48:05.:48:06.

But some detail did emerge, such as ?3.7 million for two

:48:07.:48:15.

flood schemes in Otley and Stainforth near Doncaster.

:48:16.:48:17.

Both have been affected by severe flooding in the past.

:48:18.:48:19.

One winner was the World Road Race Cycling Championships,

:48:20.:48:26.

which are coming to Yorkshire in 2019 after the success

:48:27.:48:29.

The event gets ?24 million to help with infrastructure and legacy.

:48:30.:48:36.

But the surprise was more than ?7 million for repairs to

:48:37.:48:39.

The stately home was said to be the inspiration for Pemberly

:48:40.:48:44.

in Jane Austen's novel Pride And Prejudice.

:48:45.:48:46.

The crumbling property is facing a ?50 billion restoration bill.

:48:47.:48:49.

The Chancellor described the building as being at a critical

:48:50.:48:52.

state of being lost to future generations.

:48:53.:48:59.

Yes, Wentworth Woodhouse was probably the only rabbit

:49:00.:49:01.

in the Chancellor's hat this week but let me ask you both,

:49:02.:49:04.

John Mann first of all, are the people, the majority

:49:05.:49:07.

of people you represent, better or worse off as a result

:49:08.:49:10.

Well, we don't know because he hasn't shown us the money.

:49:11.:49:17.

When it comes to infrastructure, in terms of the way the economy

:49:18.:49:21.

is going, what this chap Hammond has done if he has sneakily admitted

:49:22.:49:27.

is going, what this chap Hammond has done is he has sneakily admitted

:49:28.:49:30.

the truth, George Osborne had built up a massive debt,

:49:31.:49:32.

double the debt in six years, and all he has done is confirm that,

:49:33.:49:38.

blames it on Brexit but actually all he has done is said

:49:39.:49:42.

that's the real position, we're in quite a mess,

:49:43.:49:44.

because George Osborne and the Tories have messed up

:49:45.:49:46.

the economy because they haven't invested in manufacturing

:49:47.:49:49.

All they have done is give it away to their friends in the bank.

:49:50.:49:56.

Right, OK Craig Whittaker, John Mann says we're in quite a mess.

:49:57.:49:59.

Well, we are in a mess but trust me, it is not because of anything

:50:00.:50:03.

the Tory government have done over the last six years.

:50:04.:50:05.

We have been trying to sort out the mess and the legacy left

:50:06.:50:09.

But you've been failing, Craig, you been failing on it.

:50:10.:50:12.

All that aside, there are some benefits to a lot of people

:50:13.:50:15.

I know in my constituency without question one of the key

:50:16.:50:24.

things for some of the semi and rural areas is trying to get

:50:25.:50:27.

As is the road network stuff as well, which is vitally important.

:50:28.:50:36.

But, you know, what we do need to see now is we need to see some

:50:37.:50:40.

of this money and this action coming forward.

:50:41.:50:42.

People want to see spades in the grounds.

:50:43.:50:44.

People want to see some of these benefits coming forward because has

:50:45.:50:47.

We have been talking about it for a long time and we need

:50:48.:50:53.

You're right, we have been talking about it for a long time.

:50:54.:50:57.

But the broadband, that was promised by George Osborne.

:50:58.:50:59.

He was going to do it by 2013, then 2015.

:51:00.:51:01.

It is the same old money that hasn't been properly spent.

:51:02.:51:04.

You have to admit, George Osborne doubled the national debt.

:51:05.:51:08.

He was a total disaster as Chancellor and this poor

:51:09.:51:11.

chap Hammond is having to pick up the pieces.

:51:12.:51:14.

Well, he has doubled the national debt, John,

:51:15.:51:17.

because actually the spending plans that you guys left us

:51:18.:51:19.

You can't just turn that tap off straightaway, as you well know.

:51:20.:51:29.

So, let's not make any, let's not be under any illusions

:51:30.:51:33.

here who's fault is it is that we are in the mess that we are in.

:51:34.:51:37.

Are you seriously saying we'd be any less get

:51:38.:51:40.

I offered to be Chancellor but unfortunately Jeremy didn't

:51:41.:51:51.

agree to that but I'm still available should

:51:52.:51:53.

But where I agree with John McDonald is invest in manufacturing.

:51:54.:51:57.

I've got a list of companies who could do with some

:51:58.:52:03.

money to create more jobs in research and development.

:52:04.:52:06.

I'm suggesting they give Bassetlaw ?100 million of this money

:52:07.:52:13.

for housing infrastructure to deliver 5000 houses.

:52:14.:52:18.

I can identify exactly who can build them and where it should be.

:52:19.:52:22.

There were going to hold the government to account

:52:23.:52:26.

on all the waffle they are giving us and I am saying all right,

:52:27.:52:29.

different party in power, I'll be your mates if you can help

:52:30.:52:32.

us out and put that money in my area and therefore, Craig,

:52:33.:52:35.

if you could have words with them, the more money in areas like mine.

:52:36.:52:39.

I suspect it's a lot of hot air because it's Hammond,

:52:40.:52:43.

Surrey MP, who opposed house-building in his own area,

:52:44.:52:46.

doesn't want manufacturing and he's a friend of the bankers.

:52:47.:52:50.

John, as per usual, you're going on about stuff

:52:51.:52:57.

and you know down in Bassetlaw, in the Calder valley,

:52:58.:53:00.

we have 19% of the people in the Calder Valley work

:53:01.:53:02.

in manufacturing, so let us not to walk down our manufacturers

:53:03.:53:05.

Oh, of course we do, without question.

:53:06.:53:15.

But you will see there are some huge announcement this week about R,

:53:16.:53:18.

about research and development, for our universities for example,

:53:19.:53:21.

about how companies can tap into that source

:53:22.:53:24.

I know a lot of companies in the Calder Valley,

:53:25.:53:31.

there's manufacturers who are the backbone

:53:32.:53:33.

of our constituencies, that will be tapping

:53:34.:53:34.

I'll back you getting money in the Calder Valley

:53:35.:53:37.

in manufacturing if you'll back my manufacturers,

:53:38.:53:39.

my house-builders, get them in my area.

:53:40.:53:41.

Go and see Hammond, let's have him delivering the money.

:53:42.:53:45.

Because he needs to show us the money.

:53:46.:53:48.

If he shows us the money, we might get somewhere.

:53:49.:53:51.

Well, John, I think if you've got some bespoke plans already that

:53:52.:53:57.

you're ready to go with I'm sure they'd be very open to listening

:53:58.:54:01.

to how your manufacturers and builders want to spend the money

:54:02.:54:04.

so I'd absolutely support that, as I would for anything

:54:05.:54:06.

Come back to us if and when you manage to squeeze some money out

:54:07.:54:12.

We're going to move on now because on Wednesday Thomas Mair

:54:13.:54:17.

was given a whole life sentence for the murder of the former Batley

:54:18.:54:21.

Now, since Jo's murder, spending on MPs' security

:54:22.:54:25.

So, how has her death affected MPs and concerns for their safety?

:54:26.:54:33.

Of course we feel less safe because in order to do our job

:54:34.:54:40.

and to do it well we have to come out of what he will call

:54:41.:54:50.

and to do it well we have to come out of what people call

:54:51.:54:53.

the Westminster bubble and what keeps democracy alive

:54:54.:54:55.

in this place is going back to your constituency,

:54:56.:54:57.

talking to people on the corner of the street, talking

:54:58.:55:00.

to people at the bus stop, talking to people as you bump

:55:01.:55:03.

That is the beauty of the job and the reality at the core of great

:55:04.:55:08.

That something so awful could happen in a place that is just so ordinary,

:55:09.:55:13.

a place where all of us, I think, would feel comfortable

:55:14.:55:16.

and safe and at home, that something brutal

:55:17.:55:18.

could happen I think is really difficult to comprehend.

:55:19.:55:21.

I personally don't feel any less safe but certainly much more aware

:55:22.:55:27.

of my surroundings and where I'm going and making sure that people

:55:28.:55:30.

know where I am at any given point that I think it's a real shame

:55:31.:55:35.

that we haven't seen this as a watershed moment.

:55:36.:55:39.

It has been incredibly significant, very, very sad and I would hope that

:55:40.:55:42.

people would take a slightly more considered approach to those people

:55:43.:55:45.

We know that there are strongly held views that people have.

:55:46.:55:51.

We are politicians and democrats first and foremost.

:55:52.:56:01.

We have to find ways that we don't take a step back from engaging

:56:02.:56:04.

in that political discourse but that we do provide a safe space

:56:05.:56:07.

and we recruit good people into politics.

:56:08.:56:09.

One of my biggest fears is that we'll find it now harder

:56:10.:56:17.

to attract good, bright, young women into politics

:56:18.:56:19.

as a result of what has happened to Jo.

:56:20.:56:21.

Some thoughts there of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire MPs.

:56:22.:56:23.

Craig Whittaker, do you believe MPs need greater protection

:56:24.:56:25.

It is very difficult and Batley and Spen is physically my neighbour,

:56:26.:56:31.

so it has affected not just us, you know, in west Yorkshire,

:56:32.:56:41.

but a lot of people locally knew Jo and it had a big effect on everybody

:56:42.:56:45.

but we do get a fair level of protection.

:56:46.:56:47.

If we are down in Westminster it is like Fort Knox

:56:48.:56:49.

and since the Jo Cox thing, and in fact prior to the Jo Cox

:56:50.:56:53.

thing, we've been made very much aware of how we can

:56:54.:56:55.

enhance our security, so our homes and our offices.

:56:56.:56:59.

But the reality is the nature of the job, us getting out

:57:00.:57:02.

and about in our communities, which I do on a regular basis,

:57:03.:57:05.

on a weekly basis, it is very, very difficult to protect

:57:06.:57:07.

yourself so, you know, despite what's happened,

:57:08.:57:12.

I carry on and I'm sure John and all my colleagues do,

:57:13.:57:15.

but you are a little bit more aware of the dangers around you.

:57:16.:57:18.

John Mann, Sarah Champion, MP for Rotherham, says

:57:19.:57:20.

she is still waiting for money from IPSA,

:57:21.:57:22.

the expenses watchdog, to pay for security that she has

:57:23.:57:24.

been advised to have from the police.

:57:25.:57:26.

I mean, do you think IPSA is taking this seriously?

:57:27.:57:28.

I think there's been a lot of bureaucracy that in the way

:57:29.:57:39.

I think there's been a lot of bureaucracy put in the way

:57:40.:57:42.

I live in my constituency and I've had to change some

:57:43.:57:46.

Not since this horrendous tragedy but over the last four

:57:47.:57:49.

or five years with various incidents and threats and,

:57:50.:57:52.

you know, it is right and proper that our staff,

:57:53.:57:56.

our families, homes, offices, there is a degree

:57:57.:57:57.

of sensible protection there but we should also remember

:57:58.:58:04.

there are firefighters, ambulance crew, police officers,

:58:05.:58:06.

who are taking risks and getting attacked more regularly than MPs

:58:07.:58:12.

are and, you know, there are limits to what can be done.

:58:13.:58:17.

I don't intend not to make myself available to my constituents.

:58:18.:58:22.

I will walk through the high street constantly and repeatedly

:58:23.:58:25.

There's a bit more of a risk from terrorism or from extremist

:58:26.:58:31.

terrorists like this man who murdered Jo Cox.

:58:32.:58:35.

There's quite a bit we can do but in terms of our private

:58:36.:58:42.

protection there are bits that should and need to be done

:58:43.:58:45.

but I think that is getting done and the public, by the way,

:58:46.:58:48.

shouldn't begrudge spending a bit of extra money to ensure

:58:49.:58:51.

that we have bombproof windows and things like that, just to ensure

:58:52.:58:54.

Craig Whittaker, have politicians become

:58:55.:58:59.

Well, it is difficult, you know, a lot of people say there is only

:59:00.:59:14.

one profession worse than being a politician

:59:15.:59:16.

and that is being a banker, so it is the nature

:59:17.:59:19.

Of course, for every person that agreed with you there is another

:59:20.:59:23.

It is the nature of the job we have also but, you know, the thing

:59:24.:59:29.

about all this level of security and what have you is that actually

:59:30.:59:32.

where we live is our home, just like it is everybody else's

:59:33.:59:35.

We have to do, you know, we do have to feel safe

:59:36.:59:39.

like everybody else does as well so I think people instead

:59:40.:59:41.

of getting on social media and putting out death threats,

:59:42.:59:44.

which has happened to us all or, you know sending that anonymous

:59:45.:59:47.

letter through the post, or whatever it is they are going

:59:48.:59:49.

to do, just think twice about doing it because it is not just the MP

:59:50.:59:55.

you're getting at is quite often the MP's family and of course

:59:56.:59:58.

the staff who work in our offices to that also becomes

:59:59.:00:00.

And just finally John Mann, there is a lot of hate

:00:01.:00:04.

How do we know that the keyboard warrior who comes out with bile

:00:05.:00:08.

on social media isn't going to be a physical threat?

:00:09.:00:11.

You know, good journalists from the BBC get this kind of abuse

:00:12.:00:23.

and the better-known they are, the more they get it.

:00:24.:00:28.

I'd quite like to start sticking billboards up some of these

:00:29.:00:31.

people in their gardens so that their neighbours can see

:00:32.:00:34.

the kinds of people they are and I might start doing

:00:35.:00:36.

that with some of the locals who have sent some unacceptably rude

:00:37.:00:41.

stuff to me and everyone can then judge what they really are.

:00:42.:00:48.

Thank you both for your thoughts today, to John Mann

:00:49.:00:52.

And with that we will now go back to Andrew Neil in London.

:00:53.:00:57.

have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to

:00:58.:01:00.

you. Is Theresa May serious

:01:01.:01:06.

about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's

:01:07.:01:08.

successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off

:01:09.:01:11.

a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the

:01:12.:01:39.

executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in

:01:40.:01:42.

the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if

:01:43.:01:47.

they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband

:01:48.:01:49.

proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She

:01:50.:01:59.

is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an

:02:00.:02:02.

apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up

:02:03.:02:07.

for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes

:02:08.:02:10.

back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and

:02:11.:02:13.

becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the

:02:14.:02:20.

country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures

:02:21.:02:23.

you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense

:02:24.:02:30.

of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her

:02:31.:02:33.

own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the

:02:34.:02:36.

board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback

:02:37.:02:43.

position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into

:02:44.:02:51.

some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever

:02:52.:02:55.

they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When

:02:56.:02:59.

you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the

:03:00.:03:04.

ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the

:03:05.:03:09.

company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you

:03:10.:03:16.

kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of

:03:17.:03:22.

that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about

:03:23.:03:26.

this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party

:03:27.:03:30.

conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government

:03:31.:03:35.

can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and

:03:36.:03:40.

Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the

:03:41.:03:42.

internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C

:03:43.:03:50.

Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is

:03:51.:03:54.

the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a

:03:55.:03:58.

report which came out with similar proposals, which were never

:03:59.:04:01.

implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business

:04:02.:04:07.

leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are

:04:08.:04:11.

problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess

:04:12.:04:16.

is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the

:04:17.:04:19.

implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some

:04:20.:04:25.

business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on

:04:26.:04:30.

the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it

:04:31.:04:34.

does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning

:04:35.:04:36.

ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a

:04:37.:04:41.

great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any

:04:42.:04:44.

suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners

:04:45.:04:49.

get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong

:04:50.:04:53.

with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the

:04:54.:04:58.

higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make

:04:59.:05:01.

that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.

:05:02.:05:06.

Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There

:05:07.:05:09.

was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on

:05:10.:05:13.

boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But

:05:14.:05:19.

quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that

:05:20.:05:26.

was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering

:05:27.:05:28.

shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they

:05:29.:05:36.

hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic

:05:37.:05:40.

argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is

:05:41.:05:45.

that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to

:05:46.:05:50.

Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done

:05:51.:05:55.

it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is

:05:56.:06:00.

it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In

:06:01.:06:06.

Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of

:06:07.:06:11.

showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go

:06:12.:06:21.

with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result

:06:22.:06:25.

tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne

:06:26.:06:32.

Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next

:06:33.:06:36.

leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall

:06:37.:06:41.

and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul

:06:42.:06:45.

Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household

:06:46.:06:50.

name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and

:06:51.:06:55.

find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip

:06:56.:07:00.

together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If

:07:01.:07:08.

anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the

:07:09.:07:13.

thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It

:07:14.:07:18.

would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting

:07:19.:07:22.

Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North

:07:23.:07:29.

America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the

:07:30.:07:33.

chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the

:07:34.:07:38.

north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.

:07:39.:07:42.

But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.

:07:43.:07:48.

The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know

:07:49.:07:53.

the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would

:07:54.:07:56.

suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be

:07:57.:08:00.

honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.

:08:01.:08:05.

Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call

:08:06.:08:11.

a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty

:08:12.:08:15.

Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it

:08:16.:08:20.

can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The

:08:21.:08:25.

number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which

:08:26.:08:33.

should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a

:08:34.:08:37.

debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and

:08:38.:08:40.

they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a

:08:41.:08:44.

powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But

:08:45.:08:49.

he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond

:08:50.:08:53.

in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it

:08:54.:08:59.

turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a

:09:00.:09:02.

by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will

:09:03.:09:08.

know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU

:09:09.:09:12.

referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping

:09:13.:09:17.

Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on

:09:18.:09:21.

for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage

:09:22.:09:26.

to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum

:09:27.:09:29.

despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the

:09:30.:09:37.

party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have

:09:38.:09:41.

absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit

:09:42.:09:45.

of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and

:09:46.:09:50.

people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand

:09:51.:09:56.

that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this

:09:57.:10:03.

one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a

:10:04.:10:11.

period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the

:10:12.:10:14.

Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near

:10:15.:10:20.

moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in

:10:21.:10:24.

this shapeless political world we are in are going to become

:10:25.:10:28.

significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night

:10:29.:10:31.

yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.

:10:32.:10:37.

Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early

:10:38.:10:41.

hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I

:10:42.:10:47.

want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this

:10:48.:10:52.

morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually

:10:53.:10:55.

cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that

:10:56.:10:57.

all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and

:10:58.:11:08.

physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,

:11:09.:11:11.

particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the

:11:12.:11:16.

mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that

:11:17.:11:19.

we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So

:11:20.:11:26.

economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his

:11:27.:11:29.

forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert

:11:30.:11:37.

forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,

:11:38.:11:42.

which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You

:11:43.:11:46.

would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,

:11:47.:11:52.

and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if

:11:53.:11:59.

governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the

:12:00.:12:02.

basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to

:12:03.:12:08.

go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast

:12:09.:12:13.

will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are

:12:14.:12:16.

navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it

:12:17.:12:21.

was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these

:12:22.:12:25.

forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put

:12:26.:12:32.

the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

:12:33.:12:43.

clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up

:12:44.:12:46.

with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't

:12:47.:12:50.

trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who

:12:51.:12:55.

borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip

:12:56.:12:58.

Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence

:12:59.:13:02.

Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a

:13:03.:13:09.

huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically

:13:10.:13:13.

said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a

:13:14.:13:18.

very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a

:13:19.:13:23.

department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else

:13:24.:13:28.

thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are

:13:29.:13:32.

part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more

:13:33.:13:33.

Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One

:13:34.:13:35.

next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:36.:13:39.

it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans

:13:40.:14:13.

who were here. The story of Henry VIII

:14:14.:14:40.

and his six wives

:14:41.:14:44.

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