24/09/2016 Talking Business


24/09/2016

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Asia, a rapidly growing region with some of the youngest populations in

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the world. But Asia is also growing old, fast. It is estimated that 200

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million people will enter the ranks of the elderly in the next 15 years.

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Many of Asia's economies are still developing. How will governments and

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businesses cope with this new ageing demographic?

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Welcome to Talking Business. I am Karishma Vaswani in Hanoi. One of

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the oldest cities in Asia and the capital of being an. This country

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has a booming birth rate with one of the youngest populations in the

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region, but it has been growing old at a faster rate than many other

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nations. This is not just the Vietnamese problem. Currently, 5% is

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above the age of 65. That figure is expected to rise by 70% in the next

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15 years, and that will cost Asian economies some $20 trillion. Here is

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a look at the breakdown. According to the World Bank, the wealthiest

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countries in Asia Japan, South Korea and Singapore are currently the most

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aged with 14% of their populations over 65. Japan will reach super aged

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status soonest with 30% of its population in the elderly bracket by

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2030. And South Korea may see its GDP shrink by as much as 8%, 2026,

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simply due to a smaller workforce. Middle income countries like China,

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the nun, Indonesia and Thailand are not far behind, according to the

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Asia-Pacific risk centre, about 20% of its populations are expected age

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out of the workforce by 2020 -- Vietnam. The biggest concern is

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these economies will grow old before they grow rich. Let's look at one

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example, Singapore. It may be one of the wealthiest countries in Asia but

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it is one of the smallest in terms of size and population. One of the

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ways it is trying to tackle this issue is by extending reproductive

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life span of its people. It is not everyday you a second chance. And

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even more rare if you are 67 years old. But that is exactly what

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happened to this man, known to his colleagues simply as uncle Chu. The

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name is a sign of respect but it is also indicating he two decades older

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than his colleagues. At our age having a job makes us feel wanted

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and it is great to keep ourselves occupied by working. This is one of

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the few Singaporean businesses which is trying to integrate the elderly

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into its workforce. Many Singapore countries are reluctant to hire an

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older employee. The typical stereotypes of older people is they

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are more expensive than younger employees or that they are slow and

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they don't learn any more and maybe they are not physically healthy and

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fit. So through the years we have addressed these and of course it

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takes two parties. You have to have the employee and the employer to

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contribute to this and I think we have made a lot of progress.

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Singapore is beginning to understand it needs to address this problem

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now. Currently, the elderly make up some 11% of the country's population

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but that figure is expected to rise to 20% in the next 15 years, and

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Singapore is growing old at a faster rate than many of its neighbours.

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Singapore's government estimates that ten years ago, 50% of the

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elderly were employed. That has now jumped to 67% which means two thirds

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of the elderly are in some form of employment, but officials admit this

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is still a work in progress. When we compare it to some of the more

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developed countries which are quite good at maximising the potential of

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older workers, I think we are quite comparable but we believe there is

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still an upside. We think we are in a good trajectory that there is

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still work to be done, particularly when we think about the demographic

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trends. It was not that long ago that Singapore was still a young

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country. The citystate went from third World to first in just a few

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short decades. It was that economic success which led in part to fewer

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women having babies, and as the population shrinks, Singapore is

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counting on its elderly to ensure that the next-generation's future

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remains intact. Well, governments in the region have been recognising

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this issue over the last few years. Recently, Hanoi played host to the

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ageing Asia conference which allowed governments and representatives of

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civil society groups to mull over the scale of the problem and the

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challenges facing Asian economies in the years ahead. I am joined by some

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of the key speakers at this conference. We have Philip O'Keefe

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from the world bank. The president and director of a foundation and an

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expert in this field who has helped to BME 's government with strategies

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to deal with some of these issues. Thank you for joining me on Talking

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Business. Philip, what is the scale of the problem or the challenges

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which are facing Asian economies when it comes to dealing with

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ageing? Currently have in the East Asian Pacific a number of people

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aged over 65 and that will rise to half a billion people by 24 two.

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This is the most rapidly ageing region then we have seen in history.

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There will clearly be many more older people in the future. That

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creates opportunities and challenges. Some of the challenges

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is it will create new dynamic pressures in the Labour market. The

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biggest challenge for the government is the fiscal challenge and the risk

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of pensions. Marianne, Patsy can jump in. The scale of the problem in

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the future seems quite stark, but are there any particular countries

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which stand out as having understood the challenges particularly well? I

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think across Asia, as Phillips said, some countries clearly have a big

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issue and they are very aware of it. Singapore where I work has taken

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major steps in recent years because we are one of the fastest ageing

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regions and we feel the pressure is with the health system and the

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Labour market. They have to make some changes as well. Mr Long, here

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in Vietnam, I know you have done a lot of work with the government and

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the nam is one of the countries when you'd typically think about it, it

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has a young demographic, it is a very fast-growing economy, it is not

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necessarily a country you would necessarily associate with having an

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ageing problem? In the past 50 years, we have a very big

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demographic change. In 30 years we will become an ageing country. That

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is while it we are dealing with economic growth as well as an ageing

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population. What I am trying to understand is how did we get to this

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stage? Philip, can you explain to me, for a region as fast-growing as

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Asia is, how did we get to this point where we are now facing such a

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stark reality when it comes to ageing societies in the future? All

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of the world and historically, as countries get richer, fertility

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rates fall, winning's education rates go up, they fall further. This

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region has gone through a rapid period of growth. Fertility rates

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here between 1950 and the present fell more than an additional child

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to the rest of the world. So as a result, you are well below

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replacement rate. It was that falling fertility rates which got us

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to this point so quickly. That is the key thing, the pace of change.

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The transition from ageing to aged society in the way democracy is

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define it, took 115 years in France, 70 years in the United States and

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will take 18 years in Vietnam, Korea and Thailand. Dealing with the

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things that brings on and the pace which it brings it on and the need

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for social and cultural and policy change is really quite a big

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challenge for governments. I think the flip side of the coin is people

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are living longer. They are living longer because the health care

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system is good to keep people alive but not necessarily healthier. And

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of course we all known now that even developing countries, before it was

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infectious disease which killed them and relatively young, but now they

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live long with chronic diseases like high blood pressure and by Beatties.

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Thing is that if you manage it well, you are fine. But if you have

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hypertension, you are smoking and you don't take your medication you

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will have a stroke. Diabetes, this is one of the areas with the highest

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rates of diabetes because of the changing diet and lifestyle but we

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have not had the change in primary care support so older people can

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prevent a stroke or amputation or kidney failure. Those things put the

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burden is on individuals lives as well as the political work and the

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care they need from their community and the government. Hold that

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thought. Some of these issues are also being dealt with in other parts

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of the world. We have a light-hearted look at some of these

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challenges. There are plenty of post-retirement

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cliches which I could use in my talking point on ageing, golf, bowls

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and bowels, but there are a little low rent for me. Yachting or at

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least standing in front of yachts is more my style which is why I am

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standing at a marina outside Dublin. One thing is for certain, I have no

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plans for retirement, literally, no plans, no pension. My only plan is

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to have children and hope they will get on with me and support me in my

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old age. But that is so far-off that I have to work for the time being.

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You will not see me with the wind in my sales and a glass of wine in my

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hands, sadly. But you cannot be sad because that is counter-productive.

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Apparently, being positive is the key to. Perceptions of ageing, how

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you see yourself ageing influences longer turn your brain ageing and

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physical ageing. But this is not just theoretical happy clappy stuff.

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It could lead to some policy changes on the road ahead. In Ireland if you

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are working in a public service you must retire at 65. Very often these

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days people are reaching their maximum capacity at that age and

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carry a whole lot of institutional richness and history with them. So

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reflections on policy retirement ageing is very important. But

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eventually, the stand-up has to sit down and who will pay for the yachts

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when we are too decrepit to earn money? I think what is key from the

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economics is with people living longer and longer, people will have

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to spend more time working. They will have to spend time beyond the

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standard retirement age working but I think we have to think of creative

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ways of doing this. So I don't have to rush my career at all. It looks

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like there is such a long road ahead I will be doing stand-up until well

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into my old age. What you learn is many people would like to work

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beyond the standard retirement age of 65 but they don't necessarily

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want to be working at the highest level of corporate responsibility

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they have ever had. There are some older people who would like the

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option of moving down the career pyramid but we tend not to

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facilitate that. We have heard a lot about the challenges of an ageing

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population but what about the opportunities? What can companies

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sell to an older age group apart from retirement style hats?

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Tailoring availability of new technologies, new devices, new

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consumer goods to older persons is something that the corporate world

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is waking up to but maybe not as fast as local populations are

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raging. In an ideal world I would finish my talking point by sailing

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off into the Dublin Bay, my life's work done, ready to take my ease but

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this is not an ideal world. The ageing population and ageing world

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has some real-world problems and these will need concrete solutions

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from public policymakers and corporations alike.

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That was our comedy consultant there. If you liked that, you can

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see more of his material on our website. Back to the discussion.

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Early on, we were talking about some of the problems or challenges with

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regards to the scale of what is affecting ageing societies in Asia.

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What about how business can contribute in terms of policies or

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incentives with regards to hiring older workers. What do you think,

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Philip, are you seeing some success stories? It is beginning in the

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oldest countries. Across the world, one of the biggest challenges is

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employer attitudes to hiring older workers. In Japan and Singapore

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you're seeing the beginnings of this, a mixture of government

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incentives and responsibility from employers. In Japan and Korea, they

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have the longest working lives of any country in the OECD. Whether it

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is people's attitudes or employers attitudes, there is a great degree

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of success. Maryanne, I know you do a lot of work with older people in

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Singapore, what are some of the issues they have said when they have

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tried to get re-employed or back into the workforce? It is difficult

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because changing the culture of the employers is hard. The other side is

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you have to think out of that box and think what work opportunities

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are presented. Nowadays, people are getting very savvy with the digital

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economy. And the whole boot economy is wide open. It could be older

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people starting business or young people with platforms which allows

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older people with skills and products and services to find the

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marketplace -- the goober economy. I think it gives them flexibility,

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choice and the option of people working when they want and not when

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they want. There are many opportunities. We like to have

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leisure and have good food travel and many things. But we need

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housing, transportation, fashion, we should look at what we can provide

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for them. I think people are not yet recognising that. Some older people

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are not wealthy and have limited purchasing power. But an increasing

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number, looking at people, I am 61, so there are groups of people who

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are having purchasing power of different variability. The marketing

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people should look at them as consumers. That is a really

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interesting point. Mr Long, does that work in countries where the

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income level has not reached a certain stage yet or people have not

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moved into the middle-class yet where the demographic of the aged or

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ageing is not an attractive demographic at that point in time to

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start selling to? Vietnam is another interesting story. We have an ageing

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demographic. We are struggling how to keep the job for older people if

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they want to and at the same time, how to have jobs for young people.

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And recognising in some sectors like education and health, if we stop

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people working from very early, it means we have to take that 20 or 30

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years to train get same human resource. And in the education

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sector where I am working now, we have a flexible retirement age for

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the people. They can stop working at 64 men and 55 for women, but that

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the government can extend about ten years for the people who really want

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to continue working. Philip, let's look at some of the more developed

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economies in Asia and how they have dealt with the issue of getting

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private sector to help out with looking after the aged. In Japan and

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Korea, some of the challenges they face, as I understand it, they could

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bring more people in to look after ageing societies, but they are

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reluctant to do this. So what do they then do? It is a good question.

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The first thing they moved on it is a good question. The first thing

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removed was the financing side. Korea and Japan introduced public

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long care insurance. The first step they did and what many countries are

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thinking about how to do it now, it was getting finance available. The

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second thing is, particularly at lower end care, what do you do?

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Japan has tried with Filipino nurses over the years but language

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problems, other issues but particularly the language was a big

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issue. In China, until now you have been able to draw the younger

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workforce from the rural areas to the coastal areas so you had

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internal migration partly addressing the issue. And then there is the

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commercial sector itself. Thailand has created a niche for itself in

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medical tourism and it is able to draw people from as far as the old

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as Europe but particularly in the region, the older population. That

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is a market Thailand has brought up -- built up and is developing. Mary

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Ann Tsao, you are talking about how important it is to keep the elderly

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healthy, but when you talk about business opportunities for elderly

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people to become entrepreneurs, are their systems in place currently

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from what you are seeing to make it easy for them to do that? In

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Singapore for example, one of the key investments the government has

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made is access to retraining. We have had some success recruiting

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women who have not been working for a long time. They do not have many

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skills. We have to make the classroom training conducive for

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them. The fees are highly subsidised and we are able to get some of those

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women back in the workforce. They want to work and save money for

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themselves as they grow older. It is not wide open yet but I can see the

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system being changed so I am optimistic! Key distinctive in

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developing Asia, for those who are working after 60, 70% are in

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self-employment already. It is not like Japan or Singapore or career

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was in the past. A lot of that may be in agriculture so it is no

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productivity but the kind of animal spirits of entrepreneurialism are

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already there. How would you make that more productive is the

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question, whether it is training or access to credit. In a lot of

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countries people cannot get access to credit for their businesses

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beyond a certain age. That does not make sense. There are some policy

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issues which need addressing. On that note, thank you for joining us.

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Next week, Tanya Beckett will be looking at the anti immigrant

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sentiment. Thank you for joining us, I am Karishma Vaswani.

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