05/01/2014 The Andrew Marr Show


05/01/2014

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Good morning and may you have a happy and peaceful New Year. A

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strange thing to bring up on this waterlogged weekend, but remember

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the drought of 1976, when Jim Callaghan's government urged us to

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"save water, bath with a friend"? Well, now it's updated by the boss

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of an energy company who's urging us to save electricity and shower with

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a friend. But which friend? Britain needs leadership so we say, let

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David Cameron and Nick Clegg lead the way. And joining me today for

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our review of the Sunday newspapers, the Labour peer Helena Kennedy and

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the BBC's Diplomatic Correspondent, Bridget Kendall. And in today's

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papers, the big story is of course the flooding. We'll be going live to

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one of the worst hit areas - Malmesbury in Wiltshire, and talking

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to our reporter braving the rising tide of water. Inside the papers,

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much comment on the year ahead. Is the upturn in the British economy

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set to continue through 2014? How will the anxiety over immigration

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and all the talk of Romanians and Bulgarians flooding into the UK

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boost UKIP? All key questions for the Prime Minister, who joins us

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live this morning. He's making a big promise today on pensions and he may

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end the year with Scotland opting out of the United Kingdom

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altogether. From a real Prime Minister to a fictional one - David

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Morrissey, who famously played Gordon Brown in "The Deal" joins us

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this morning to discuss his new TV drama about adultery and his work

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with the pressure group reprieve. Before all that, over to the news

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desk and Sian Lloyd. Good morning. More storms, high

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tides and gale-force winds are expected across many parts of the

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UK. This morning, more than 100 flood warnings remain across the UK.

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There are 46 in south west England alone, where the ground is already

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saturated after heavy rainfall in the last 48 hours. In total, more

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than 200 homes have been flooded from Cornwall to Scotland, with

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miles of coastline battered and roads and fields across the country

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left under water. In Belfast the sandbags are out again as people get

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ready for more bad weather today and tomorrow. Yet another storm is

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coming in from the Atlantic. The Met office has warned of severe weather

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in the south of England and Wales along much of the west Coast, as

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well as in Scotland and Northern Ireland. That means strong winds and

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maybe more than an inch and a half of rain. These pumps are likely to

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be on again today, most of the flood warnings this morning are in the

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south-west which is already drenched after several days of ferocious

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weather. There is a lot of repair work and cleaning up to do. In

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Aberystwyth the seafront has been badly damaged, exams at the

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university had been delayed for a week as the town tries to recover.

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In Devon, the Coast Guard on police will continue their search for Harry

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Martin. The teenager went missing on Thursday, after going out to take

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pictures of the store. He hasn't been seen since. More than 200 homes

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have been flooded in the storms but many thousands of properties have

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been protected. With more rain and high winds on the way, flood

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defences are about to be tested again.

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The Prime Minister has promised that a future Conservative government

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would protect the value of the state pension after the next general

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election. The so-called triple lock guarantees a rise each year in line

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with wages, prices, or by 2.5%, whichever is highest. David Cameron

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said in a newspaper interview that he wants to give peace of mind to

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people who have worked hard. Labour is also looking ahead to the

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next election. Its leader, Ed Miliband, says a future Labour

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government would close a legal loophole which he says is being used

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to exploit cheap foreign workers. In an article in a Sunday newspaper, Mr

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Miliband says stopping agency workers being paid less than

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employees would end what he called the "chronic dependency on

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low-skill, low-wage labour". The Iraqi government has lost

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control of Fallujah, a major city west of Baghdad. It is believed to

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be held by a militant group linked to Al-Qaeda. Iraq's prime minister,

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Nouri Al-Maliki, has accused the militants of plotting to create an

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independent state in the region. England's cricketers have suffered a

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humiliating series whitewash in the Ashes, after losing the final test

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in Sydney. They were all out for 166. It's only the third time in the

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history of the Ashes that there's been a 5-0 clean-sweep.

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Staying with sport, we have just heard that the Portuguese footballer

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Eusebio has died. That's all from me, for now.

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Thank you, Sian. Well as we heard in the news, this is a very anxious

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time for people whose homes and businesses are at risk of flooding,

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and many are counting the cost of damage done by the bad weather we've

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already had. Our correspondent Chris Eakin joins us from Malmesbury in

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Wiltshire. There was a bit of respite overnight, certainly here,

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and the river levels have dropped slightly. I am in the upper reaches

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of the River Avon. There is more rain forecast coming into Cornwall

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now and to where I am at lunchtime, a similar amount to yesterday, and

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it is a question of everybody with their sandbags at the ready, waiting

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to see what it does to the river levels. Because of the saturated

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ground, the rivers react extremely quickly. Very difficult to

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generalise, but by and large do you think the people are getting the

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help they need? The exact problem is the generalisation because I have

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travelled a lot with the flooding and it depends entirely on where you

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are. People in places are complaining there is an excess of

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caution, with the Environment Agency covering their backs, and at the

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same time you get people complaining not enough has been done. If you

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take exactly where I am, there has been a row since flooding here a

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year ago since those houses behind with medieval elements to them,

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since they have been flooded, there has been a row about how much has

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been done to let the water flow through this historic rich more

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quickly. It is an historic site so there is an argument about how much

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you change things to make the rain flow quicker and minimise the risk

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of flooding. Not everyone will be happy. We are persistently told

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there is too much building on areas at risk of flooding, is that the

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case? In Malmesbury there is building around this region on flood

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plains so it is still an argument, and one which will frankly continue

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and it is made no better by this succession of storms in recent

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weeks. Thank you. Now to the papers, and

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the Sunday Telegraph has picked up a similar story about ending the

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pensions lottery and David Cameron's pension promise. In the

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Observer, they have the Labour leader's promise on pensions and so

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forth, but also the shadow education secretary attacking Michael Gove for

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what he calls ugly claims about the First World War, is it being

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perverted by left wing liberal historians. Finally, the Mail on

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Sunday, the Archbishop of Canterbury text the word "sin" out of

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christenings. With me to review the papers are the Labour peer Helena

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Kennedy and the BBC's Diplomatic Correspondent, Bridget Kendall. You

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have chosen a weather story, I believe. North Wales has taken an

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incredible battering, the bottling of railway lines, just an amazing

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story about extreme weather, then of course all over the country. And

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then the Sun cheerfully says there is snow coming. My eye had been

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caught by the Sunday express, the tide of idiots. This is all about

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whether tourism, you have to give warnings to make sure people prepare

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the bad weather but the downside of that is that people get curious and

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they want to take films of it and photographs, and what does that mean

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for the lifeguards who are there to save lives? I was drawn to this

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picture in the Telegraph of what they are suffering in North America.

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This is a picture of a house in Nebraska in the north-west which is

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completely frozen. Admittedly it was covered in ice because the firemen

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had been there, there had been a fire, but it still gives a sense of

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it, -35 degrees. Canada, as usual, deep cold temperatures. Extreme

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weather, apparently, will be part of our general experience of the world

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that we live in and it is related to climate change. Deny it as they

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will, this is seen to be part of our life now. We have to get away from

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the idea of global warming as a benign process, it is about extreme

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warnings. And you have chosen a story about 1914? Certainly there is

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a story here which is about a general business of this being the

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year of the anniversary of the First World War's beginnings and there was

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a battle about how this should be dealt with. One that it should be a

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celebration of Great Britain's achievements in the First World War,

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and the other side of the argument which is that the lessons to be

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learned are about the horror of it. This is about the left exaggerating

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and being unfair on those who lead us into war. There was a wonderful

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piece in the Independent, Margaret MacMillan who really is an expert on

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this, and she talks about how we are seeing a replication of some of this

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in the current politics of our times. She is saying, look to the

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Middle East. In the same sort of ways, we are seeing the small

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nations at each other's throats, the disintegration of colonising big

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empires because the Austrian Hungarian empire disintegrated, but

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also the smaller militant groups, political groups like the jihadists

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who want to take advantage of the situation, and she has said we are

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seeing some of the causes in the First World War in existence at the

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moment and should be avoided. Project, it has been said what is

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going on in the Arab world is like the sunny Shia division, the huge

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tectonic division across the whole region. It is a shift we are

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witnessing in Syria, in Iraq, more broadly between Iran and Saudi

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Arabia, and it is as if the time has come to revisit those boundaries. It

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is about today how boundaries matter less, like the weather and you have

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to keep an eye on Siberia to know what is coming here. You have chosen

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a story about Libya. This is partly about the same thing because maybe

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this is about jihadists, we don't know yet, it is about the British

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man who was shot on a beach with a female companion last week. I think

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they have now arrested four people but it seems to be a sign of further

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lawlessness in Libya. We had terrible little information when it

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first emerged last week, but Mark was a good guy who liked and

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understood the Libyan people, he worked in the oil industry before

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the Libyan revolution and how tragic that he should have met his death

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there. Also, in some of the other papers, correspondents have been

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talking to people in the oil industry, and maybe this has begins

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locations for the future of Libya. How can the oil industry get back on

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its feet? There is a thought that this execution is an attack on the

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west again, we don't want anything from your region, coming from

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extremists. It is a reminder... Lets move back to domestic stories,

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pensions all over the Sunday papers. There's a deeper story in this. A

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lot of the political parties will make offers to the electorate which

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will change their fortunes. A lot comes out of this business of the

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challenge to the Conservatives by eye kip. Some polling which we see

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referred to on page two of the Independent, polling conducted by

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Lord Ashcroft, there is a huge defection of Tory voters away to

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UKIP. The polling is showing 37% of people who voted Tory are defecting.

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Is the argument older voters are more likely to go to UKIP.

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Pensioners are more likely to go back? And older voters turn out. Low

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turnout amongst the young who are disaffected who think politicians

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are not interested in their lives. This business, where we have the

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Health Service, leeching away resources to the health service. The

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lowest number of doctors of any European country. Qualified doctors

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working within our health service, and middle England suffering and

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middle Britain suffering incredibly from what has been happen happening

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economically. Here we are seeing a pan ding to UKIP in order to... It

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is about trying to get the votes back. We'll see it continuing. But

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what's interesting is the Conservatives are in trouble. That's

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what this is a story about. I'm sure we'll discuss this with the Prime

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Minister. Bridget, your job is to discuss the grimmer parts of the

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world. You couldn't invite me on and not do a story with Russia. This is

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in the Observer. It is a great picture. The pussy riot musicians

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who President Putin let out of prison recently. Part of his charm

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offensive to put Russia in a better light a head ahead of the Sochi

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Olympics. We just had the news yesterday that he's going to allow

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protests at the Sochi Olympics. Maybe limbed where they will be and

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who can take part but they will be allowed. He cannot get away from his

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critics. We learnt from this story a documentary film director made this

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film about the Pussy Riot band. Itlike up for the documentary

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category in the Oscars. This goes back to this business of, that in

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fact what's happening in Russia is terrible. On human rights there is

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still extraordinary and terrible abooss. What's happening in prisons,

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people being thrown into jail, forgotten about. We are seeing a

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pretence in this period now because they want to have the Olympic Games

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go well. President Putin knows this West cares about this But Russia is

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called to account on its abuses of human rights. The other side of this

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from President Putin's point of view he reckons most Russians do not care

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about this. What they will care about at the Olympics is whether

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they are safe or not. His biggest worry is to avoid any Jihadists

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attacks. There have been two bombs in a Russian city not too far away

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in the south. He faces the same threat the West faces. That's what

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he sees and has always claimed from the time he came into office. This

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is an arc of terrorism. That story about his treatment of Chechnya. We

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need something more cheerful! You've very cheerful shoes on at least!

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Some of the issues at the front of people's minds is this stuff about

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immigrants coming into Britain. Labour is pointing out in fact there

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is a loophole which allows agencies to bring in cheap foreign labour who

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will be paid less than British labour. It is those things which

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happen where agencies, companies are using agencies to actually undercut

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the wage agreements that are made. I think those things have to be

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addressed. Labour's Ed Miliband is raising that issue. Let's move to

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the Everley Brothers. One of those two iconic musicians has died. A

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loss to music. A sad story because he's dead but there is a good side

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to it. Re-evaluation of the Everley Brothers. This is the Mail on

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Sunday. It is in most of the papers writing tributes to him. The theme

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is all the same. The quote is summed up by Gary Kemp from sand owe

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ballet. If you are a Beatles fan, you owe to to Phil Everly. Finally

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getting the Rec anythings he deserves. The best cartoons of the

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day? They are Matt's's. It is somebody looking in the fridge

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saying if 77,000 Bulgarians and Romanians turn up we've enough cold

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turkey to feed them all! Another, UK arrivals, come to the front of the

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queue if you can play cricket. We didn't mention that story. Very wise

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of us. Thank you for that. Now, the weather. Like a lot of people, I'm

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having a dry January. Looking out of the wind he it is clear the Almighty

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has not made the same commitment. Now over to Darren Bett.

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We've had a cold, frosty and icy start this morning. Do not be

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fooled. We are expecting the winds to freshen today blowing in cloud

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and sweeping rain to all parts of the UK. It is coming from the

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Atlantic. Look at this curl of cloud wrapped around low pressure. It is

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throwing ahead this belt of cloud. That is bringing the rain. Turning

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wet in Northern Ireland, Wales and the south-west. Heavy rain over the

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hills. That rain will creep eastwards, clouding over in the

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morning for eastern areas. Rain later. Not arriving to the eastern

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coasts until later in the day. Turning milder the in south-west.

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Gales around western coasts. No worse than that today. The winds may

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strengthen overnight. Further bursts of rain. Sweeping down to the

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south-east. Clearer skies follow that for a while before showers gang

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up in the north-west. Because rain's not far away and it is windy tonight

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milder than last night. Tomorrow will be windier than today. Gusts of

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630 mp hrnings around some western coasts. Threat of further coastal

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flooding with high tides. In between, bands of showers rushing

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from west to east. Some showers squally, hail and thunder.

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Temperatures above average. All the wet and windy weather is due to this

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area of low pressure. It is it is close by on Monday it will be windy.

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Through the rest of the week, the low pressure retreats taking the

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winds away. The winds not as strong and hopefully not as much rain. If

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that happens, it will be good news. David Morrissey is no stranger to

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playing troubled men in challenging circumstances. Who could forget his

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brooding younger Gordon Brown in Channel 4's The Deal. Or State of

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Play. His latest role is in the new BBC drama The 7:39. Written bind

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Nicholls it is as like a Brief Encounter of the 21st Century.

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Morrissey's character is married to Olivia Colman whose life goes off

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the rails when he embarks on an affair with fellow commuter Sheridan

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Smith. You're in my sheet. Was it reserve? I don't see reserve aces. I

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put my colt up and you barged in. You sneaked in. I didn't, I just sat

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down. There are rules. Otherwise this becomes a free for all. No need

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to shout. ? If you need it so badly, I'll get up. I am I'm getting off at

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the next stop. How kind. What a kind man. Thank you. Yeah, thank you. So

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everyone's happy! It is amazing how shaving off a beard has a youthening

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affect. Maybe a message for Jeremy Paxman! I had a colour in my beard.

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Takes the edge. This is an unusual drama. There are lots of dramas on

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television and in the cinema about affairs and adultery. This is about

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the aftermath. It is bleak, not bleak but a strong moral message? I

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get offered a lot of roles and read a lot of scripts which at the heart

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have a thriller aspect. Children going missing etc, I love Reading

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them and being in them but when I read this there was something real

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about the heart of it. It is a grown-up drama. You mentioned in

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yourenttoe Brief Encounter. People said that to me. That is one of my

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favourite films. Then it was a different time. It is not a

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commuterland affair. Nothing actually happens? We also never see

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Trevor Howard's wife in that world. I felt this was a much muddier

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world, a much realer world. The consequences of their actions is

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played out. That's very important. It is not this heady, it is for a

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while which happens between these two people who find each other in

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this commuterland which is a tough place to exist as I'm sure many

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people know. They find each other. The second half of the drama plays

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out the consequences of their actions which is very important.

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Those bib lickly attuned, it goes back to Corr inn yens, a verse

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against adultery. A gap in my research! It is set in commuterland.

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Havings filmed on trains, how easy was that to do? It was very

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difficult. That is our great production department securing that.

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One of the great things for me with this drama is you get to know, not

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like in commuterland, you get to know the other people on the train,

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who play extras. Every weekend we'd get together and do the train stuff.

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It was the easiest time for us to film. Those supporting actors when

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we get to Waterloo have to walk around in the background but act as

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chaperones for anyone who wants to get into the film. They really saved

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us working in places like Waterloo Station. They were fantastic.

:27:13.:27:17.

Outside the acting world you work a lot for a charity Reprieve. People

:27:18.:27:23.

who are on death row off the hook. Why that charity? It is not off the

:27:24.:27:29.

hook. They are just trying to give them legal representation. I came

:27:30.:27:37.

across Clive Stafford Smith many years ago, I saw him in a film 14

:27:38.:27:45.

Day of May. He was on death row. It was an American pen tensionry. In

:27:46.:27:51.

the middle was an upper class English gentleman, this man's human

:27:52.:27:55.

rights, he was representing them. His fashion and submitment really

:27:56.:28:02.

moved me. I -- miss passion. And commitment. Guantanamo was supposed

:28:03.:28:13.

to be closed down. Obama's not done that. 15 5 people are onning hunger

:28:14.:28:21.

strike and have been cleared but are still at Guantanamo. Sheikh owe

:28:22.:28:26.

mayor has been there really since it opened. He's been cleared for

:28:27.:28:32.

release by the Bush and owe mam a administration. Nothing's happened.

:28:33.:28:36.

It is about highlighting that. Keeping it very much at the

:28:37.:28:44.

forefront -- Obama. There's a lot of Criticism of actors and luvvies. I

:28:45.:28:50.

know you loath the phrase, people getting involved in these campaigns.

:28:51.:28:56.

How do you react to that? You want people to get involved in campaigns.

:28:57.:29:01.

Be aware of things which concern them. There are obvious campaigns

:29:02.:29:05.

one can get involved in which we all love. They are about abuse,

:29:06.:29:11.

charitable projects but something which has human rights at the heart

:29:12.:29:15.

of it is dear to me. It is a very difficult subject to get involved

:29:16.:29:18.

with sometimes. You can get criticism about that. The important

:29:19.:29:22.

thing is the campaign carries on for me. It is not about my personal

:29:23.:29:26.

criticism. It is about the people suffering at the heart of it. It is

:29:27.:29:31.

about justice for all. We support that, it is about how to deliver

:29:32.:29:36.

that message. I mentioned your iconic role as Gordon Brown. He's

:29:37.:29:41.

become an non-person in Westminster politics, not seen, not much talked

:29:42.:29:47.

about, except in a hostile way. How do you see him now. You got under

:29:48.:29:52.

his skin at the time? That was a drama about a specific time in

:29:53.:29:58.

Labour history. I saw great Shakespearian parallels with that

:29:59.:30:03.

relationship between those two men. From an ideology point of view you

:30:04.:30:07.

respected Gordon Brown. It is strange with modern politics, that

:30:08.:30:11.

sense of how it is presented for people. I don't want my politicians

:30:12.:30:17.

to have a good day on Sr I got news for you. I want them to fight their

:30:18.:30:23.

policies. I don't want them on panel shows. If people don't perform on

:30:24.:30:29.

television it is a big ground and a lot of work goes on behind the

:30:30.:30:34.

scenes for politicians to make them presentable on TV. You think it is

:30:35.:30:38.

shallow? It is not shallow. It is about sometimes the message can get

:30:39.:30:44.

lost in a packed news agenda. It is hard. It is a different time now.

:30:45.:30:47.

For now, thank you. Deml And now to my main guest this

:30:48.:30:58.

morning. Depending on who you listen to this morning, we are an

:30:59.:31:01.

over-borrowed and under-productive country threatened by break-up, or a

:31:02.:31:03.

great European success story, taking the necessary tough measures and

:31:04.:31:07.

about to roar ahead of France and even Germany. David Cameron, who by

:31:08.:31:10.

and large takes the latter view, joins me now. Can I start by asking

:31:11.:31:19.

about immigration? You were severely criticised by Vince Cable on the

:31:20.:31:23.

language about immigration, but I put it to you that the problem we

:31:24.:31:27.

have is that we have no idea of the numbers we are talking about. You

:31:28.:31:32.

must have some notion of how many Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants

:31:33.:31:36.

will be coming over in the next five years and so on. We are not making a

:31:37.:31:42.

forecast because it is unlikely we would get it right. It is not just

:31:43.:31:48.

Britain that has had to lift its controls, they are also being lifted

:31:49.:31:53.

in France and Germany and eight other European countries. To make a

:31:54.:31:58.

forecast would be wrong. My job is to put in place the measures that

:31:59.:32:01.

make sure the people who do come here are coming to work and not

:32:02.:32:09.

claim benefits. On the forecasts, it would be completely bonkers given

:32:10.:32:13.

the effect on schools and the NHS to have no idea of the numbers coming

:32:14.:32:20.

in so you must have a number. I have no idea and I haven't made a

:32:21.:32:24.

forecast because you would be trying to forecast how many people would

:32:25.:32:28.

come to Britain rather than the other European countries, and the

:32:29.:32:32.

last forecast made by the last Labour Government at the time of

:32:33.:32:38.

Poland's accession to the EU was a ludicrous forecast of 14000 and it

:32:39.:32:42.

turned out that over a million people came. I believe in learning

:32:43.:32:47.

from that mistake, having transitional controls for as long as

:32:48.:32:51.

possible, having transitional controls that go on much longer, or

:32:52.:32:56.

having a test so that if their wages are much lower then perhaps you

:32:57.:33:06.

delay entry to our labour market for longer. This time they said quarter

:33:07.:33:15.

of a million people over five years, is that ludicrously high or low? My

:33:16.:33:20.

job is to put in place proper controls so we investigate that

:33:21.:33:25.

people are not being paid less than the minimum wage, to make sure that

:33:26.:33:29.

we deal with illegal immigrants, to make sure that if people cannot

:33:30.:33:34.

sustain themselves that they are removed from the country. Is it

:33:35.:33:39.

acceptable that Romanians and all variants who work here with children

:33:40.:33:44.

back home can claim child benefit in Britain and send the money straight

:33:45.:33:50.

back? That is not right and it is something I want to change, it is a

:33:51.:33:54.

situation I inherited. We either have to change it by getting

:33:55.:33:58.

agreement with other European countries, and there are countries

:33:59.:34:07.

who believe it is wrong, like me, I don't think we should be paying

:34:08.:34:10.

child benefit to their family and Poland. To change that you have

:34:11.:34:14.

either got to change it with other European countries at the moment, or

:34:15.:34:18.

potentially through the treaty change that I will be putting in

:34:19.:34:24.

place before the referendum about Britain's membership of the EU

:34:25.:34:40.

before 2017. Are you sure you can do -- go ahead with your plans on the

:34:41.:34:48.

NHS? It is right that people who don't have the right to use it

:34:49.:34:53.

should be charged with it and we are putting that in place. The

:34:54.:34:59.

immigration cap, many people including Vince Cable say that it is

:35:00.:35:06.

illegal and you wouldn't the able to do it. Migrants from outside the

:35:07.:35:14.

European Union who come here for economic reasons, we have a cap on

:35:15.:35:19.

that, but what we are looking at in the future is that as new countries

:35:20.:35:23.

join the EU, what sort of arrangements we can put in place for

:35:24.:35:28.

them, and as we renegotiate our position in Europe, can we have

:35:29.:35:31.

tougher measures on migration in general. So it is not a cap for

:35:32.:35:42.

Romanians and Bulgarians? It is about the renegotiation in the

:35:43.:35:45.

future of our relationship with the EU. Is it that movement within the

:35:46.:35:57.

EU has become the key thing to discuss? Britain has benefited and

:35:58.:36:01.

will continue to benefit from people with skills coming to Britain and

:36:02.:36:07.

contributing to our economy, but I think two things have gone wrong.

:36:08.:36:12.

One is movement to claim benefits, there is a problem there, but

:36:13.:36:19.

secondly what has gone wrong, the scale of the movements have been so

:36:20.:36:29.

big. When Poland and the other A8 countries, when they joined 1.5

:36:30.:36:36.

million people initially came from those countries to Britain. That is

:36:37.:36:41.

a massive population move and I think we need proper and better

:36:42.:36:46.

controls. It is an issue I would want to address in the

:36:47.:36:50.

renegotiation. There must be different rules before the next

:36:51.:36:57.

group of countries succeed? Every time a new country joins the

:36:58.:37:01.

European Union, there has to be unanimity around the table about

:37:02.:37:06.

what the arrangements are so Britain will be able to insist on a

:37:07.:37:13.

tougher, more robust regime. Broadly speaking, do you think the

:37:14.:37:16.

immigration levels we have seen over the last ten years have been good

:37:17.:37:22.

for Britain or bad for Britain? It has been too high. Immigrants bring

:37:23.:37:29.

value to Britain and many become British citizens, but over the last

:37:30.:37:36.

decade it has been too high. We saw net migration under the Labour party

:37:37.:37:40.

of 2.3 million, the scale was too big, the pace was too fast and it

:37:41.:37:45.

was not properly managed and thought through. Peter Mandelson said that

:37:46.:37:51.

the last Labour government sent out search parties to look for migrants

:37:52.:37:57.

to come to Britain. The key thing is not just our migration policy, there

:37:58.:38:03.

is a three sided coin, immigration, welfare and education. If we get our

:38:04.:38:08.

education and welfare systems right, we will get more British people into

:38:09.:38:12.

the job is made available and that will reduce pull factor the UK. Net

:38:13.:38:19.

immigration is going up at the moment, it increased last year from

:38:20.:38:26.

the previous year. It is down almost a third since I became Prime

:38:27.:38:30.

Minister. I said we want to get it to the tens of thousands, we are not

:38:31.:38:35.

there yet, but it has come down by just less than a third. We want to

:38:36.:38:41.

close down bogus colleges, when I became prime minister there were a

:38:42.:38:46.

lot of bogus colleges attracting people into Britain who were

:38:47.:38:50.

claiming to be students. I don't blame those people, if they don't

:38:51.:38:54.

have any money of course they want to come but it has got to be

:38:55.:39:01.

managed. It is very difficult to measure who goes out, which is a

:39:02.:39:05.

really big problem. Absolutely right, as well as proper entry

:39:06.:39:11.

controls, you need proper lexicon controls and we are putting them in

:39:12.:39:16.

place over the next couple of years. It will be linked to the e-border

:39:17.:39:28.

scheme. Let's turn to Europe. You told me six months ago that it was

:39:29.:39:34.

an urgent matter to get the list of demands for your renegotiation from

:39:35.:39:38.

Europe, there is still no sign of that. I don't really accept that.

:39:39.:39:44.

Even before starting this renegotiation, we have won back

:39:45.:39:49.

powers from Brussels. I got us out of the bailout scheme, so we don't

:39:50.:40:01.

have to bail out other countries, I have managed to cut the EU budget,

:40:02.:40:06.

the first prime minister in history to do that, next year it is going

:40:07.:40:11.

down rather than up, and I have started to set out those things that

:40:12.:40:16.

needed to change. We need change on claiming benefits, on free movement,

:40:17.:40:20.

I said we want to get Britain out of the idea that there is an ever

:40:21.:40:25.

closer union within the European Union. We don't want that, we want

:40:26.:40:31.

to have trade and cooperation, so we are making progress. I have set

:40:32.:40:40.

until 2017 to give time to get the renegotiation right. At the moment,

:40:41.:40:45.

half of the British population according to polls want to leave the

:40:46.:40:49.

European Union, and you are creating a referendum that will allow them to

:40:50.:40:53.

do so. We don't have any sign yet of what the red lines will be. We are

:40:54.:40:59.

still in a position where most people want to leave. What most

:41:00.:41:05.

people in this country want is a real choice. They don't want a

:41:06.:41:11.

choice of shall we stay in this organisation that isn't working or

:41:12.:41:15.

shall we leave, they want to change it and then decide, and that is what

:41:16.:41:22.

they will get from me as prime minister and former Conservative

:41:23.:41:27.

government. When, if ever, we will hear from you, these will be my red

:41:28.:41:32.

lines without which I will not go to the British people. I have already

:41:33.:41:40.

said some of them, but also we need more flexibility, more

:41:41.:41:47.

competitiveness in small businesses, and I have given myself, rightly,

:41:48.:41:58.

the referendum... If I am prime minister, there will be an input

:41:59.:42:08.

referendum before the end of 2017. -- in-out. I think it is

:42:09.:42:18.

achievable. Because the rest of Europe, because we have 18 countries

:42:19.:42:23.

now in a single currency, they need change, more common taxes, more

:42:24.:42:28.

banking unions, and they need change, and as they need change, we

:42:29.:42:32.

should be able to get change as well. It is not achievable if you

:42:33.:42:38.

are still linked to the Liberal Democrats who oppose this tooth and

:42:39.:42:44.

nail. The Liberal Democrats have their own views about Europe, but I

:42:45.:42:48.

have said clearly if we are going into the next election with a clear

:42:49.:42:52.

agenda on Europe that I think people will back, and to put it beyond any

:42:53.:42:57.

doubt, if I am Prime Minister there will be a referendum by the end of

:42:58.:43:04.

2017. If there isn't an overall majority, you would prefer to run a

:43:05.:43:10.

minority government done with the coalition? I am going all out for a

:43:11.:43:16.

Conservative victory, I think that is achievable. We have a long-term

:43:17.:43:23.

economic plan which is working, we have 400,000 new businesses

:43:24.:43:27.

operating in Britain, we are one of the fastest-growing countries now in

:43:28.:43:31.

the Western world, but we cannot be complacent. The job is not even

:43:32.:43:37.

halfway finished. This is a vital time in the history of this country

:43:38.:43:42.

and the opposition are committed to on doing our good work. They want to

:43:43.:43:48.

spend more and taxed more. And yet the public is in favour of that,

:43:49.:43:55.

according to the polls. Is for me it is about putting in place the

:43:56.:43:58.

long-term plan, and I am content I will be judged in 2015, but the

:43:59.:44:05.

public need to know that the opposition are committed to undoing

:44:06.:44:08.

all of that good work. It would be like handing back the keys to the

:44:09.:44:13.

people who crashed the car in the first place. They have learned

:44:14.:44:19.

nothing about the economy. And yet they are nine points ahead, what is

:44:20.:44:25.

the camera and problem? When you are delivering a long-term economic

:44:26.:44:29.

plan, reforming welfare and education, making sure small

:44:30.:44:33.

businesses can hire people, you have to make difficult decisions. We made

:44:34.:44:40.

very difficult decisions, asking people to retire later, lifting the

:44:41.:44:45.

pension age to 66, and as a result, I can say today that we will have

:44:46.:44:50.

the pension plan for the future. We are not fighting the election yet,

:44:51.:44:55.

it will be in 16 months. I want to do everything I can to turn this

:44:56.:45:00.

country around and give it a chance of success. The public will judge at

:45:01.:45:05.

the election and I think perhaps politicians, the media, everyone, we

:45:06.:45:11.

spend too much time on the daily strategy political battle, who was

:45:12.:45:16.

up and down, I am not interested in that. I have this opportunity to put

:45:17.:45:21.

in place a long-term plan that gives this country a real chance of

:45:22.:45:26.

success. Let me turn to pensions. There is a

:45:27.:45:32.

triple lock in place. Pensioners until Twenty20 are guaranteed no

:45:33.:45:40.

increase? That's right. Pensions go up by 2. 5%. Earnings, prices or

:45:41.:45:47.

which ever is highest. Earnings haven't been going up quickly

:45:48.:45:51.

because we've been recovering from this appalling recession we've had

:45:52.:45:55.

under Labour. We are saying because we've taken these difficult

:45:56.:45:59.

decisions, because we are asking people to retire later, first to 66

:46:00.:46:05.

and then upwards. We are able to make this decision we'll keep the

:46:06.:46:09.

triple lock in place until at least the next Parliament so people know

:46:10.:46:13.

wages will be growing. If they didn't, your pension will be

:46:14.:46:17.

protected because you have the 2. 2.5%. This is a huge commitment for

:46:18.:46:21.

the Government when you are cutting in so many other areas. It is

:46:22.:46:26.

connected to the fact 68% of pensioners vote? A much higher

:46:27.:46:31.

proportion than any other group? No, it is a choice based on values. I

:46:32.:46:36.

want people to have dignity and security in their old age. People

:46:37.:46:40.

who've worked hard, done the right thing. Provided for their families.

:46:41.:46:45.

They should know they will get a decent state pension not lagging

:46:46.:46:50.

behind earnings. We have to do more to help young people. Which is why

:46:51.:46:58.

we are abolishing the jobs tax. Investing in apprenticeships. The

:46:59.:47:02.

choice I make is yes, we should be giving pensioners dignity and

:47:03.:47:09.

security. You can't prioritise everyone but you are pensioners. Is

:47:10.:47:15.

it at times when you're putting a welfare cap? It is fair, you should

:47:16.:47:21.

be protecting pensions. In terms of working age welfare which we have

:47:22.:47:26.

tried to reduce and control, we put in place a welfare cap so a family

:47:27.:47:31.

is never better off out of work than in work. That is right. There is

:47:32.:47:36.

more we can do in terms of reforming welfare. Going back to the #e78

:47:37.:47:43.

immigration argument, people need to be keen to go to work rather than

:47:44.:47:48.

live on welfare. That job is not yet complete. You are going to put in an

:47:49.:47:53.

overall welfare cap. How and when is that going to happen? Will it be a

:47:54.:48:01.

%age of total GDP or Government cash spending? The Chancellor will be

:48:02.:48:06.

spelling it out in the weeks to come. We control tightly the

:48:07.:48:10.

spending departments do, the home office and the agriculture

:48:11.:48:14.

department and such like. We haven't controlled in the past in this

:48:15.:48:18.

country the welfare bill which has gone up and up and up. You put in

:48:19.:48:24.

place a welfare cap on the overall budget. We exclude pensions from it.

:48:25.:48:29.

If you have to break that welfare cap because you're not getting

:48:30.:48:34.

unemployment down, you're not dealing with the problems of

:48:35.:48:38.

welfare, you'd have to have an explicit vote in the House of

:48:39.:48:41.

Commons. It is to encourage the Government and House of Commons to

:48:42.:48:43.

control all of Government spending not just some of it. This suggests a

:48:44.:48:50.

tough squeeze on housing and child benefit. Once you take out pensions

:48:51.:48:54.

that's what you're really talking about? Housing benefit has gone far

:48:55.:49:00.

too high. We are spending something over ?20 billion a year on housing

:49:01.:49:04.

benefit. That is an enormous amount of money. We've already made some

:49:05.:49:10.

big changes. When we came to power some families were getting up to

:49:11.:49:14.

?80,000 a year in housing benefit. We've stopped that. Put a cap on it.

:49:15.:49:20.

There's more we can do to reform our Ben pilothouse /* -- benefits

:49:21.:49:25.

system. I want young people when they leave school and university to

:49:26.:49:29.

have a choice of earning or learning. The idea of signing on,

:49:30.:49:35.

getting housing benefit, living lives on benefits, the Dutch other

:49:36.:49:40.

countries don't allow that. You can eastern or learn but a life on

:49:41.:49:45.

benefits is not an option. What about wealthier pensioners being

:49:46.:49:50.

able to pick up benefits, television licences, free travel, winter fuel

:49:51.:49:55.

and so forth? Will that continue? I made a promise if I became Prime

:49:56.:49:59.

Minister I would keep in this Parliament those things. We've kept

:50:00.:50:03.

that. It is important to keep these promises. Will you make this promise

:50:04.:50:08.

again? We'll set out our plans for the next election in our manifesto.

:50:09.:50:13.

I made promises like delivering on our aid promises. When you make

:50:14.:50:18.

these very clear public promises, you should keep them. What about

:50:19.:50:23.

taxation? You'd like to bring the rate down to 40p. I want taxes which

:50:24.:50:29.

mean the rich pay not just a fair share but I want the rich to pay

:50:30.:50:35.

more in taxes. You should set tax rates which encourage people to

:50:36.:50:39.

eastern, set up businesses and then pay taxes. With the 45p rate, it

:50:40.:50:44.

will bring in a better percentage of money than the 50p rate did. You

:50:45.:50:48.

should always look at though you set taxes in that way. The priority and

:50:49.:50:54.

the priority of this Government is to target tax reductions on the

:50:55.:50:58.

poorest people in our country. That's why we've raised to ?10,000

:50:59.:51:02.

the amount you can eastern before you start paying taxes. Why we've

:51:03.:51:08.

frozen the council tax, cut petrol duty. Do you want to cut the top

:51:09.:51:14.

rate of income tax? We'll set taxes to raise revenue. Not to make a

:51:15.:51:21.

political point. If I had money in the covers, you would target that

:51:22.:51:25.

money at the lowest paid, at those who work hard, who want to get on.

:51:26.:51:28.

Those are the ones who need our help. You cannot cut taxes unless

:51:29.:51:34.

you control spending. The opposition is not committed to controlling

:51:35.:51:40.

spending. There are further spending reductions which have to be made.

:51:41.:51:43.

Only then can you cut people's taxes. We have cut taxes but not by

:51:44.:51:49.

increasing borrowing. Talking about spending commitments. Are local

:51:50.:51:53.

authorities struggling with floods because the Environment Agency and

:51:54.:51:56.

their own budgets have been cut too far too fast? On the Environment

:51:57.:52:01.

Agency and flood defences we are spending ?2. 3 billion in this

:52:02.:52:07.

four-year period on flood defences. We enabled them to access other

:52:08.:52:11.

sources of money, partnership funding. We'll see record levels of

:52:12.:52:17.

spending on flood defences. We've guaranteed that until 2020 so they

:52:18.:52:21.

can plan for the future. Local authorities have had to make

:52:22.:52:26.

difficult decisions. The Environment Agency has to control its budgets

:52:27.:52:30.

carefully. We have increased the amount of money they get for

:52:31.:52:37.

frontline... You're happy? First of all huge sympathy for anyone who's

:52:38.:52:43.

had a house or office flooded. It is dreadful. I think community response

:52:44.:52:48.

has been incredible. I saw how people come together, help, the

:52:49.:52:52.

emergency services have done a great job. There are always lessons to

:52:53.:52:56.

learn. We are doing a lot more things better. Flood warnings are

:52:57.:53:01.

better, flood defences have protected tens of thousands of

:53:02.:53:03.

homes. There will be always lessons to be learned. If this September the

:53:04.:53:10.

Scots vote to leave the UK it will be a body blow to the authority of

:53:11.:53:15.

qlour own Government but you seem determined not to debate openly with

:53:16.:53:21.

Alex Salmond? I hope the Scots vote to stay in the UK. It was right to

:53:22.:53:25.

give them that choice. They voted for an SNP Government in Scotland.

:53:26.:53:30.

If the UK Government said we are not listening, you can't have a

:53:31.:53:33.

referendum, that would be wrong. We've done the mature sensible

:53:34.:53:38.

thing. Let's have a fair and decisive and legal referendum. As of

:53:39.:53:43.

this issue of the debate, Alex Salmond is losing the current

:53:44.:53:48.

argument and wants to change it. This is not a debate between me and

:53:49.:53:53.

him. Between the Prime Minister of the UK and the first minister of

:53:54.:53:58.

Scotland. Shouldn't it be? No. The debate should be between people in

:53:59.:54:02.

Scotland who want to stay and people in Scotland who wanted to go. But it

:54:03.:54:07.

affects you and everybody across these whole islands not just the

:54:08.:54:11.

Scots. It does and we debate these things in Parliament and the media.

:54:12.:54:18.

The key question, does Scotland stay in the united kingdom or leave, that

:54:19.:54:22.

is for the Scots is to decide. I don't have a vote. I'd vote to keep

:54:23.:54:27.

our family of nations together. It is for the Scots to decide. Prime

:54:28.:54:32.

Minister, for now, thank you. Over to Sean for the news headlines. The

:54:33.:54:37.

Prime Minister has promised a future Conservative Government would defend

:54:38.:54:41.

the level of the stays pension. David Cameron said he would retain

:54:42.:54:44.

for the next Parliament the so-called triple lock which

:54:45.:54:47.

guarantees that pensions rise in line with average earnings,

:54:48.:54:51.

inflation or at a rate of 2. 5% which ever is higher. He said it was

:54:52.:54:56.

a choice based on values and people deserved dignity and security in old

:54:57.:55:00.

age. But he declined to say whether the next Conservative fan fess toe

:55:01.:55:06.

would include a promise to retain university pension benefits such as

:55:07.:55:09.

the winter fuel allowance. More storms, high tides and

:55:10.:55:14.

galeforce winds are expected across American are parts of the UK as

:55:15.:55:19.

communities assess the damage of the bad weather. Over 100 flood warnings

:55:20.:55:24.

remain in place. There are 46 in south-west England alone where the

:55:25.:55:28.

ground is already saturated after heavy rainfall in the last 48 hours.

:55:29.:55:33.

That's it from me, the next news on BBC is at 1.00: We're back for our

:55:34.:55:45.

seventh series at 10.00am. We're discussing immigration with

:55:46.:55:48.

politicians. Journalists, people of faith and having a baby over 40, is

:55:49.:55:56.

it selfish and last, sin. See you at 10.00am. Here the Prime Minister is

:55:57.:56:01.

still with us as are Helena Kennedy and Bridget Kendall. I was going to

:56:02.:56:05.

ask about Syria. It is a big interest of Bridget's here. It could

:56:06.:56:09.

be said the Labour Party got you off the hook. We'd be engaged in a war

:56:10.:56:16.

if it hadn't been for that vote in the House of Commons. Are they

:56:17.:56:20.

right? No-one was contemplating going to war in Syria. It was what

:56:21.:56:27.

was the right reaction to the chemical weapons in Syria. It was a

:56:28.:56:31.

tough reaction. The message was clear enough so I believe the Syrian

:56:32.:56:35.

Government are making steps to get rid of their chapelal weapons. We

:56:36.:56:40.

must measure and quantify what's happening. It is a tragic situation

:56:41.:56:44.

which we need to do more about. Prime Minister, I wanted to ask with

:56:45.:56:50.

the Sochi Olympics. You made a lot about the Olympic bond. You flu out

:56:51.:56:56.

to -- flew out to Sochi. Your office made it clear you're not going to

:56:57.:57:03.

Sochi Olympics? My schedule is not set yet. We are not boycotting the

:57:04.:57:09.

Sochi Olympics. Ministers and athletes will be going. I wish them

:57:10.:57:14.

a successful Games. I raised issues about human rights and gay rights

:57:15.:57:18.

with president poult /* as I always do. We wish them a successful Games.

:57:19.:57:30.

Our switch thinks to those victims of those Islamist extremists

:57:31.:57:34.

attacks. Can the rufrpingss guarantee a safe Olympics? We're

:57:35.:57:40.

working with them. We'll give advice all the way through. Prime Minister,

:57:41.:57:44.

your Government is making a lot of noise about pulling out of the

:57:45.:57:48.

European Court. How can you talk about Europe rights to Russia who

:57:49.:57:54.

will be rubbing their hands in glee if Britain pulls out of the European

:57:55.:57:58.

Court of Human Rights? We have a proud record of European Court of

:57:59.:58:03.

human rights even before that was started. The message to Putin, if we

:58:04.:58:09.

pull out of the European Court, that's great, we can ignore them too

:58:10.:58:13.

and ignore human rights? I don't accept that. The court of human

:58:14.:58:21.

rights said prisoners want the vote. I'm not happy for prisoners to have

:58:22.:58:27.

the vote. We are out of time. Sorry. Join us again next week. I'll be

:58:28.:58:31.

joined by Nick Clegg for the second of our party interviews of 2014. In

:58:32.:58:37.

the meantime, we'll leave you with a song from the ever brother on the

:58:38.:58:43.

weekend Phil Everly sadly died. Here he is with brother Don singing Long

:58:44.:58:48.

Time Gone. Goodbye.

:58:49.:58:54.

# You cheated me and left me lonely # I tried to be your very own

:58:55.:59:07.

# There'll be a day you'll want me only

:59:08.:59:14.

# But when I leave, I'll be a long time gone

:59:15.:59:21.

# Be a long time gone, be a long time gone

:59:22.:59:30.

# Yes, when I leave, I'll be a long time gone #

:59:31.:59:32.

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