09/03/2014 The Andrew Marr Show

Hello, good morning and welcome. That's not normally how I start this

show. But that was the five-word signature of my great predecessor,

Sir David Frost. He gets his memorial service at Westminster

Abbey - plus a plaque, no less - this coming week. And joining us for

our review of the Sunday newspapers, we have one of Sir David's sons with

us - Wilfred Frost. Also here, just back from Ukraine, is the BBC's

Europe editor, Gavin Hewitt. And the broadcaster and Labour peer Joan

Bakewell. The standoff in Ukraine continues -

well, there are many worse things than a standoff - while Crimea

continues to simmer. Private Eye's cover last week announced "Winter

Paramilitary Games Begin", with a picture of President Putin saying,

"I think Russia is going to win the shooting." Well, many people think

Russia IS going to win the shooting. Are they wrong? The Foreign

Secretary, William Hague, who has been in Kiev talking to Ukrainian

leaders and in Brussels for the EU talks, joins us live in the studio.

One of the major factors that hampers the West's response to

Russia is of course energy. Increasingly, Europe needs their

gas. The Lib Dem Energy Secretary, Ed Davey, will be here later. Will a

Russian freeze have an impact on prices here? And after this

weekend's Lib Dem Spring Conference, we'll also be talking about Cabinet

tensions over climate change and immigration. David Cameron

distracted himself from those tensions by going to the theatre

last week, to see the stage adaptations of Hilary Mantel's books

about power struggles in Tudor England. I've been talking to the

author, and the actor who plays her Thomas Cromwell. Plus, we have

music. Paloma Faith will be here later, live in the studio. It's long

been a principle of this programme to be resolutely uncool. But Paloma

Faith? We are in danger of breaking our own principles! First, the news

with Naga Munchetty. Good morning. Search teams are still trying to

establish what happened to a Malaysia Airlines passenger plane

which disappeared over the South China Sea with 239 people onboard.

Radar signals show the plane may have turned back shortly before it

vanished. The Boeing 777 disappeared en route to Beijing from Kuala

Lumpur. It was flying south of Vietnam at the time. No wreckage has

been found yet, but the Vietnamese air force says it has spotted two

oil slicks. Malaysian officials say they are now investigating the

identities of two passengers who were flying on stolen passports. Our

South Asia correspondent John Sudworth reports.

Spotter planes searching for the missing plane have found the first

possible clue, this large oil slick, far out to sea. Relatives of those

on board have been taken to a Beijing hotel. But few can now doubt

that something terrible has happened to the plane. At a press conference

in Malaysia this morning, a government minister confirmed that

they are investigating reports that at least two of the passengers had

boarded the plane using stolen passports. I am in touch with the

international intelligence agencies. At the same time, our own

intelligence has been activated, and of course, the counterterrorism

units from all the relevant countries have been informed, and

that is what I have been doing since yesterday. For now, this is still a

search and rescue operation, with a number of navies, including the

Chinese and the Americans, assisting the effort. But while the families

here in Beijing wait for information, the news that there may

be something suspicious about the passenger list will only add to

their sense of alarm. And with more than 150 Chinese citizens on board,

in the midst of its annual Parliamentary session, a time of

heightened national security, the Chinese government is also watching

developments carefully. The US has warned Russia that any

attempt to annex the Crimean region of Ukraine would close the door to

diplomacy. Shots were fired yesterday as a team of international

observers was turned back from entering Crimea, which is now

controlled by Russian forces. Overnight, the American President,

Barack Obama, discussed the deepening crisis with other world

leaders. The Co-operative Group is to give

large pay rises and bonuses to its senior staff, despite the

expectation that it will report the worst losses in its history later

this month. The Observer newspaper has seen a document which suggests

that the Group's new chief executive will receive an overall salary

package worth more than ?3 million. The Co-operative say executives' pay

was in line with that of comparable firms.

Some terminally-ill patients are suffering unnecessarily because of

poor access to pain control at home, according to a leading health

charity. A report for Marie Curie Cancer Care highlights what it calls

"terrifying" delays for prescriptions, and carers feeling

"abandoned". NHS England has welcomed the report, and says it is

developing a programme of action to improve care. An extra ?140 million

of government money is being made available to councils in England to

help them repair roads damaged by the severe winter weather. The

Department for Transport says most of the money will be disturbed at it

by the end of the week. The Local Government Association said councils

welcomed the extra funding but claimed that it would not cover the

full cost of repairs. That's all from me for now. I'll be back with

the headlines just before ten o'clock. Back to you, Andrew. Thank

you Naga. Now to the papers. The only paper which has really been

able to go on the plane tragedy is the Sunday Telegraph. It is asking

the question, were terrorists responsible? The Observer has gone

with the story about the Co-operative Group, which we have

just been hearing about. And the Sunday Times has a headline about a

secret BBC report regarding scrapping the licence fee. The BBC

has said this morning that that is not the case. Joining me, as

promised, Wilf Frost, Joan Bakewell and Gavin Hewitt. It must be strange

for you sitting here where your father once sat. I wonder whether

the newspapers dominated your childhood, at the weekend,

particularly? They did indeed. He adored the papers, it was a great

hobby of his to pour over them all weekend. That was a battle for us as

kids, to get him away from them. He had this wonderful oak desk where he

would have them all spread out. We would sneak in and hide underneath

it, ready to jump out at him. I remember on one occasion, just as we

were about to jump out, he received a phone call - Mr President! And we

decided to sit tight for a while. Gavin, these are newspapers Sir

David Frost would have enjoyed hugely. Take us through the best of

it. I think there are three papers which really caught my eye on the

subject of Ukraine. My favourite headline on the subject is this week

headline in the Sunday Times - what would the West fight for? I think

really, that is the question of the week. After all the diplomacy which

was going on in Brussels and in Paris, I was actually in Kiev, and

people said afterwards, is that it? That was when they heard that these

negotiations were going to be frozen between the EU and Moscow. What this

paper raises is the question, how much do we really think is at stake

and what are we prepared to do about it? What I also like is, when they

look at Germany, they point out the economic costs of all of this, in

the sense that, more than 6000 German companies do business in

Moscow. They are dependent on natural gas from Russia, I think 35%

of their gas. All of the big German car companies now have big

manufacturing plants in Russia. They do. And in the end, I think it is

not just Germany. One interesting quote which I saw during the week,

but which re-emerges in the Observer, in their editorial today,

is, what about the City of London? They have a quote from a

journalist, saying, Britain is ready to protect the holder of the City of

London on dirty Russian money, and forget about the Ukraine. Now, you

may not necessarily agree with that, but certainly on the streets

of Kiev, there is the sense that they might be abandoned, that in the

end, it might just be that Crimea has already slipped beyond getting

it back. I think the most important new piece of news broke too late

this morning to make the newspapers, but John Kerry has said, if it goes

on like this, we will close down the diplomatic space. Now, diplomacy is

what we need more of. We need more and more diplomacy, stretching as

far as it need go, until there was a resolution. What we do not want is

to blackmail people into taking a Chen. We want people to -- taking

action. We are commemorating the start of World War I. They should

have kept on talking. The Sunday Times has ten ways to punish Putin.

The bottom one is, send in troops. But they say, this is not going to

happen. I think the most likely effective punishment is a long-term

one, rather than a short-term one, which would be to damage Russia's

exports of natural gas. But that requires European politicians to be

brave enough to say to their electorates that gas will run out,

and will be getting more expensive, which is a hard thing to say? It is,

and it is not something which can happen quickly in the short-term.

But with US gas exports increasing in the years ahead, it is Russia

might regret. Also, in terms of world politics, is the move of the

Crimea into the Russian world of global, to the brink, significance?

I think we all need to ask that. I do not know the answer. The other

huge story this morning is the downing of this aircraft. Gavin, you

have covered a very similar case. The 777 is one of the safest

airliners in the world, however? It is. When a plane disappears, and

there is no communication, usually, it is regarded as a catastrophic

incident. Of course, most people will think that it was probably a

bomb on board. But some years ago, I covered the fall of a plane taking

off from JFK, I think it was. And later, although this was disputed,

their conclusion was that it was what they called a fuel air

explosion. I am sure that even though they will be looking at

terrorism, there sometimes can be catastrophic events, which are

extremely rare, but other than terrorism. Wilf Frost, you have

chosen the Sunday Telegraph? Indeed. It has got the question, were

terrorists behind the plane tragedy? Of course, we do not know yet. But

what strikes me is that two men were travelling on stolen passports, one

of which was reported stolen two years ago. I find it amazing that

they were able to get on the plane. And of course China has its own

separatist, Islamist problem. Indeed, although it is hard to know

if that was anything to do with it at this stage. I suppose the

overriding thought is one of deep sympathy with all of the families

involved. On a similarly sober note, let's turn to a domestic story. Yes,

ministers clear the path for assisted suicide to be legal. MPs

are to get a free vote on a bill coming up in the autumn, following a

private members' bill. And it looks as though the law is shifting, so

that people will not be prosecuted, and there will be more tolerance.

They will be given a free vote on a bill which will enable doctors to

help terminally ill people to die. The regulations issued several years

ago by Keir Starmer made it unlikely that family and close friends would

be prosecuted for helping with assisted suicide, but it left the

medical profession rather unsure of whether they would be prosecuted.

And they need the protection so that they can help people who are dying

anyway, they are being killed by a disease, but the pain becomes

intolerable. You are very interested in this issue, Joan, is there any

idea of how many people want to be doing this around the country, the

numbers? I think about 40 cases have been referred since the Keir Starmer

ruling. I think about two people might have been prosecuted.

Clearly, those were not sympathetic people. As far as I know, people

have stopped going to Switzerland, which is just an enormous imposition

on people who have got enough problems anyway. But I think the

polls which are constantly being taken are showing that public

opinion is now very, very strongly in support of a change to the law

which allows compression and tenderness and real medical concern

to take priority over an absolute ruling. My eye was drawn to

something which I am sure will come up again, as we close in on the

election, and that is executive pay. It is about what the head of the

Co-op Bank might be receiving, when they are letting go a significant

number of people. I was looking at a comment column by Will Hutton, and

he makes this charge - the evidence suggests that performance,

productivity and innovation across British business are touching new

lows. And I am certain a lot of people will remember the

Co-operative Bank, and I think they will again wonder why it is that

executives need to get paid these huge sums of money. It is a strange

thing, the profits go down, the bonuses go up. It is very strange,

because what they always say is, yes, we must have the top people,

and the top people demand the equivalent pay of other chief

executives. Why don't they lower all the standards of pay, so that they

would all have comparatively the same, at a much lower and more

logical level? Let's move on to the Paralympics. Jade Etherington has

won a medal. It seems more dangerous and faster than any other kind of

event. Yes, she and her partner go down together, very exciting. This

is the week of the Lawrence story revisited and a new commitment to

another inquiry because of police secrecy infiltrating the Lawrence

family. Scotland Yard are still up to it here. They are in a new

undercover police row, this is an attempt to stop the legal bid by the

women who were seduced by undercover agents, some of them having

children, and they were making a bid to prosecute. That is being fought

by Scotland Yard to stop it happening. The former director of

prosecutions, Lord MacDonald, accused the police of engendering a

culture of deceit. Do they never learn? It is pretty grim. Gavin.

Usually when I am not in Kiev and places like that, I spend a lot of

time in Brussels. I was drawn to the Express this morning who have this

headline, the EU could dig up your garden. They say that under new

rules, authorities will have the power to come into your homes and

destroyed plants including the Virginia creeper, but these invasive

species they have decided needs sorting out. It is something I have

so far missed in Brussels but obviously I need to look at this. We

had Jose Manuel Barroso in the studio recently, he could have done

some gardening. Wilfred, your next story? I was going to touch on the

move from the BBC Three to the Internet. It is a great shame but I

think it is a sensible move, and as Peter Preston says in the Observer,

conventional television is caught on the cusp of change. Young people

watch much less television live these days and this is a sensible

move. What were your father's views on changing television? He moved to

Al Jazeera towards the end of his career. Modern technology was not

his forte, it is funny that he was a pioneer in the world of television

for many years but could not turn my television set himself! On Sunday

afternoon you could be sure to get a telephone call asking how to

navigate his way to Sky Sports. Sounds very familiar indeed! Joan,

have you got any more stories? This is a picture story and it is a

photograph of someone who has won an Oscar, it is Cate Blanchett. What

are they like on the morning after? She is sitting up in bed, perfectly

made up, her beautiful gown lying on her bed, it is such a setup and it

is so hilarious. A day in the life of a star. Where is the Oscar? By

the bedside with a cup of coffee. David Frost never got an Oscar but

he will be getting his great ceremony on Thursday, tell us about

it. It is a wonderful honour that the Dean of Westminster has bestowed

upon him, to have the service in Westminster Abbey. It is totally

down to him, and he felt that Dad had been in people's living room for

50 years and this was an honour that he deserved. It is very much a

celebration of his life, and to have it there with 1500 people, the only

shame is that he will not be there himself because he would have loved

it. He would have loved it. Over to the weather now. It will be warmer

than the Greek islands here this weekend. Balmy as I came in. A sunny

start to spring. Will it last? Over to Nina Ridge in the weather studio.

We may see 18 degrees somewhere, but not everywhere. As a rough guide,

much of England and Wales seeing the best of the brightness and those

temperatures. It is further north and the west sticking with more

cloud and outbreaks of rain. Also the contrast because parts of west

Wales have had more cloud this morning, along with west Cornwall

and parts of Cumbria. Through the day, a lot of that should clear

away. The focus of the rain will be in central and southern areas of

Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland. Though quite breezy to the

south, that breeze keeping the temperatures down. It is in the

south-east where we are likely to see the high temperatures of 17,

18. A cold day, but with that we could see some snow through the

night tonight. More cloud further south so cool day to come for

England and Wales, but in contrast, things improving further north.

Sunshine in and Edinburgh. "I am going to defend the tolerant

and modern Britain we love" against UKIP's "ungenerous, backward-looking

politics". That's the claim being made by Nick Clegg as he closes the

Liberal Democrat's spring conference this morning. So, what happens if

UKIP trounces them in the forthcoming European elections? Here

to talk about that, and his own brief of energy policy, is the

Cabinet Minister Ed Davey. Welcome. Can we start off talking about the

Russian crisis? We have less than 1% of our gas coming in from Russia, is

that right? That's right, we have very secure supplies from the North

Sea and from Norway, and we have a lot on ships, liquefied natural gas.

People should not be worried about that. What about price? If the west

to Russia says we are not going to take any more of your gas, the price

will be affected, surely? Gas is bought 18 months in advance so they

shouldn't be using it as an excuse to put up people's prices. We have

seen, when this crisis broke, there was a spike in oil and gas prices,

they have come down now, but if there was an escalation, if we saw

military conflict and if it went on for months and months, there could

be an impact on prices. It is one of the reasons why the Coalition

government believe it is important to have a mix of energy, more

diversified. People say the west cannot stand up to Russia because we

need their gas because Western politicians will not turn round and

look them in the eye and say, sorry, prices will have to go up because we

are confronting Russia. Prices have been falling markedly in recent

years because we have been investing in renewable energy. One of the

things I have been doing is going to Brussels, arguing for an ambitious

approach so we have more home-grown energy, so that Europe invests in

renewables so we don't have to depend on them. So why was Michael

Fallon talking about a new pipeline, to make us more dependent?

Which is about diversity. If you have more diversity, prices go down

and that is what we want for consumers. You are really still

worried about prices because you have written to the energy

regulator, and your letter implies that British Gas will have to be

broken up, is that a fair assessment? When the Coalition came

into power, we inherited the big six energy companies. From day one we

have been trying to increase competition. We have I think nearly

over 20 independent suppliers challenging the Labour Party's big

six. We have improved switching so a lot of people are doing that, but

can we do more? The evidence on domestic gas supply is that I am

concerned that we are seeing too much dominance, by British Gas in

particular but not just them, and I wanted to bring that evidence to the

competition authorities. We have taken action and they can now take

further action if they think it is required. And prices are still going

up so I ask again, is it possible do you think that you will call for

British Gas itself to be broken up? It is a matter for the Independent

Competition Authorities. We have provided the evidence showing there

could be a problem. A debate in Parliament in the wider public

hadn't focused on gas, even though it is two thirds of the domestic

electricity bill. Labour had not mentioned it. Enough about Labour, I

am wondering about your policy. The reason I started the debate is to

make sure that the competition authorities can look at it in

detail. It is up to them to act, we put the evidence into the public

domain. Do you think British Gas is in a competitive position? The

evidence we provided show that British Gas has 40% of the market,

it has some of the highest prices and highest profits in domestic gas

supply. It came from a publication last November... That suggests your

answer is yes? It is something the competition authorities should look

at. Let's turn to the Liberal Democrats. The big theme of the

conference seems to be, we are the anti-UKIP party. They are

intolerant, we are tolerant, that is the main theme, is that a fair

assessment? We have been pro-European for decades, long

before UKIP came on the scene so we are setting out our stall. He is

making the point there are people in UKIP who want to pull us out. The

Conservative party is very confused on this, they are flirting with

coming out, which is dangerous for Britain's place in the world, and we

think Labour has been totally silent. Where is the leadership from

someone who wants to be the Prime Minister? Nick is taking this to the

people. If he says, this is the big argument, Nigel Farage is our big

enemy, if UKIP beats you that means you have lost the argument, doesn't

it? I don't think that is the case. We came fourth in the last European

elections and went on to have a really good Westminster general

election result. We want to use the European elections as a way of

making the argument, and we hope that politicians from other parties

who share our view is that it is better for jobs, for tackling

climate change, for tackling crime Britain is in an Nick Clegg wants to

lead that argument. And the other parties are concerned about the

levels of immigration, but you want more? We want a balanced approach.

In this Government we have supported some of the measures to restrict

immigration and we are debating immigration at our conference, and

putting forward other measures to restrict it. But you would like to

see the extended families given free rights to come into this country? We

have got a balanced approach. For a start, we have got these measures

which would be more restrictive. But where family life is involved, where

it is someone's husband or wife, I think we should be more welcoming to

the families of people who are settled here. We do also have a

view, Vince Cable and Nick Clegg have been clear about this, that

immigrants play a very important, positive role in our society. There

are 40,000 foreign-born workers in the NHS. What you have just said

must mean more rather than less immigration from outside the EU.

Overall, you want more immigration, not less, that is irrefutable. No,

it is not. Actually, governments cannot control immigration in the

way that some people say they can. You need tough measures to make sure

that the people who come here are legitimately here, and they follow

the rules. We also want a political dialogue which does not denigrate

immigrants, because they play such a positive role. Foreign students

bring ?30 billion into the UK economy. Let's not be so negative

against immigrants, as some parties seem to want to be. Thank you for

joining us. It is rare for the Royal Shakespeare Company to adapt the

work of a living author for the stage. But then Hilary Mantel is no

ordinary writer. She's won a brace of Booker Prizes, has revitalised

historical fiction, and is a bestseller all over the world. The

RSC's staging of her novels Wolf Hall and Bring Up The Bodies brings

to life the deadly Tudor court in which Thomas Cromwell thrived - how

he rose from commoner to Chancellor, King Henry's shadowy enforcer. I

caught up with Hilary Mantel in Stratford, along with Ben Miles, who

plays Cromwell. He began by explaining how he prepared for this

epic role. My chief source material was Hilary

Mantel's books, which I read and read, and spent many weeks plotting

a storyline, narrative, for Cromwell, what he does, who he

meets, which I stuck on the wall of my office in the RSC rehearsal

rooms, and I think it went around the room about three times, this

narrative. One of his chief driving forces is just self survival,

really. He has been trying to stay out of trouble, of one form and

another, all his life. And he arms himself with great knowledge, great

skill, great diplomacy, great charm. Henry believes God will not give him

sons because he and Catherine were never truly married. So, he has just

noticed, after 18 years? In the book of Leviticus, he has found the verse

which forbids marrying your brother's wife. Contradictory, isn't

it? The king does not like it. He says, if this is God 's word, no

hopeless power... He is right, isn't he? You tell me, you are the

Cardinal. He could talk to an ambassador, he could talk to a

farrier, and he could know as much about each of their trades, or know

how to get what he wants, or rather what his client wants, from them, at

any time. He is one of those very rare people who can see the picture,

going right through social boundaries, he subverts everything,

he laughs when he should be serious, he turns the whole power structure

upside-down. That is the conception of the man. And you play the man

very beautifully. If I may say so, you do not look like Cromwell as we

know him from the Holbein portrait. You have got a very open face, if I

may say so, a nice smile. To what extent do you feel that you are

playing a villain with a hero's face, as it were? I do not feel I am

playing the villain. I do not think Cromwell regards himself as a

villain, or necessarily as a hero. He kills lots of innocent people on

the way, though. Yes, but he was not alone in doing that at that time.

That behaviour was normal behaviour, especially in the world in which

Cromwell lived. He did not stand out in that sense, greatly, I do not

think. Our brilliant producer, Mike Poulton, said, right at the

beginning, I am not worried about a lookalike, I just want someone who

looks as if, under a bridge, on a dark night, he might knife you.

Well, then does that sort of thing all of the time, so he was the

obvious go to man! This is what we want, a sense of unpredictable at

the end danger, someone who could turn on a sixpence. Can I ask about

the language, because you have chosen relatively modern sounding

language, and it is a very odd thing, because everybody is dressed

up in Judah costume, in the Royal Shakespeare companies theatre, and

somehow people expect a more charged, Shakespearean language? I

do not think you should underestimate the resonance of

simple, stripped down, direct language. I never wanted pastiche,

and the books do not use pastiche. My job is to make sure that however

the language is pitched, the people have Tudor thoughts. They send a

butcher's boy to tip me off. Charles would not go to war over his old

aunt, surely. He does not have to go to war, he could block aid us, when

winter comes, we will be pleading for mercy. Tom Cromwell, Lord

Chancellor of England, imagine that! I will get everything settled before

anyone wakes up to what is happening. I am thrilled about doing

these plays in modern language, if you like, because so many people

enjoy these plays because of that, especially younger people. There are

a lot of people in the audience. They seemed to congregate on that

side of the stage, I do not know why. And they were laughing at the

jokes. They were horrified by the sexism, Tudor sexism. When we say,

think like a Tudor, what are we talking about? We are talking about

attitudes to women, attitudes to death, which was everywhere, loss,

grief, attitudes to God, to kingship. I know that you are

working on the third book in the clergy at the moment, Hilary, but

this feels to me like a great tragedy suspended, the story of

Cromwell fighting his way up, the first part is about the destruction

of Wolsey and all around that, and then we get onto and billing and her

fall... We have another four years of Cromwell's rise and rise in the

third novel, and his abrupt fall. The experience of being here,

working with Ben, working with the rest of the company, has been

extremely productive for my third book. Are you writing it

differently, having seen the first two books on the stage? Oh, yes,

yes, indeed. I think this is a unique process. Normally, with a

literary adaptation, the book is closed, it is done. This is a work

in progress. So, I was prone to try the patience of the company by

coming in during rehearsals with a new page. Here is one I wrote this

morning! We would run towards you to take it and learn it, because it was

such a beautifully written piece of drama. We are in the middle of a

great debate at the moment about the teaching of English history. I am

wondering how you react to the criticisms of Michael Gove regarding

the, ties a share of history, not so much lack adequate but other

dramatisations? What you think about this as a way of teaching people via

drama? The important thing is to know that there is no one version

that is completely right, no single version which holds sway. Everything

needs to be questioned, to be reconsidered. All sources are

suspect. When somebody presents you with a historical fact, the thing

you must ask is, who is telling me this, and why do they want me to

believe it? Or journalistic questions, actually. Indeed. If

performed with integrity, then dramatisation, fiction, is actually

helpful in stimulating that spirit of inquiry. Because the novelist, if

you are doing this properly, you are saying to the reader, hey, what

would you do? That is the question we are asking all along about

Cromwell. It is a great T-shirt logo, what would Thomas Cromwell do?

After a sell-out run, both plays are transferring to London in May.

Public booking for them opens tomorrow morning. Now, the situation

in Ukraine remains tense. There are demonstrations planned across the

country today, including a mass rally in Kiev. Last night, the

American Secretary of State, John Kerry, warned that the space for

diplomacy is coming to a close. I'm joined now by the Foreign Secretary,

William Hague. The truth of the matter is that Russia has won,

Russia has the Crimea, and that is not going to change. Well, of

course, we want to see progress on this. That is why John Kerry and I

met Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, in Paris on

Wednesday. But I think it would be wrong to conclude that Russia has

won, in some sense. I think this will turn out in time to be quite a

big miss calculation. But Russia has won in the sense that they are going

to keep the Crimea, at least, and there is nothing that we are going

to say or do that will change that. That is clearly their intention. We

want to see Russians and Ukrainians come in to negotiations with each

other. We should not prejudge the outcome of that, but clearly that is

what Russia is intending to do. They have brought forward the holding of

a referendum for one week today in Crimea, ridiculously quickly. The

world will not be able to regard that as a free or fair referendum.

But they do not care, do they, Foreign Secretary? President

Putin's spokesman last night literally laughed with derision when

it was mentioned about further negotiations. We have no real hold

over them, that is the truth, isn't it? We will see. I think they do

care about the international reaction about what they have done.

That reaction is very strong. The European Union has set out a

graduated series of measures. With respect, it is not strong. The point

I was doing to make is, the long-term consequences will be very

significant for Russia. I think they will be inadvertent and unintended

consequences. From everything that I saw in Kiev, when I was there on

Monday, people from across the political spectrum, including the

people from the East, who mostly identify with Russia, are strongly

against Russian intervention in their country. It will affect

attitudes towards Russia very seriously over the long-term.

Secondly, I think European nations, as you have discussing with Ed

Davey, will be recasting their approach to energy and their

economic links with Russia over time. Those are things which over

time will mean that this has been a serious miss calculation at a book

so far, in concrete terms, we have just talked about things like bans

on visas. What about things like kicking Russia out of the G8, is

that possible? We have already suspended the preparations for the

G8 summit, which is due to be held in Russia in June. We have stopped

the meetings leading up to that. Clearly, one of the options, if

there is no diplomatic progress, is to cancel that altogether. Indeed,

the G7 would be free to meet on their own. And that could happen?

These are things which would none of the measures that we can propose

remove Russian forces from the Crimea. Nobody is proposing a

military conflict between the West and Russia. But some of the

diplomatic and other costs to rush of this are serious. And they need

to be taken seriously in Moscow. Could we not simple leak cancel the

gas contract is, the oil contracts which or is that too much of a

disruption to western Europe? That would vary one country to another.

In the case of the UK, we only by about 1% of our gas from Russia. For

other countries, it is up to a third or more. They are clearly not in a

position just to say, we will do without that gas. But I think over

time, and Ed Davey was talking about the need for diversification, one of

the consequences of Russia's action will be that this will change. It

feels like you have a certain number of rather small sticks available to

you. There is no question of military action of any kind, I take

it. That's right. So what are the sticks you have got? We have already

suspended talks on VISA liberalisation, we have suspended

talks on a new agreement... I am sorry, but hoops of derision from

the Kremlin at that level of measure. Well, as I was saying, none

of these things force a withdrawal from Crimea. But they will raise the

cost to Russia. The next step does involve travel bans and as it

freezes on individuals, and that will be taken very seriously by the

individuals concerned. Have we got guts to do that in London? That

unfortunately exposed piece of paper seemed to suggest that we are not

going to stop Russians coming here, we are not prepared to be tough with

Russians in London? We are one of the countries which has been

advocating a strong response within the European Union. The Prime

Minister led the way on that at the council in Brussels last week. There

is no measure which the United Kingdom has blocked on this. Britain

is a country which has strong laws against money-laundering, very clear

about corruption. The idea that Britain is going to block anything

that Europe might agree to, that would be totally mistaken. Nobody in

Russia should rely on that, and nobody should think that we would do

that. So, what are we going to do about Putin-supporting, super-rich

Russians in London, buying property here, educating their children here,

coming and going as they please? There are people in London from all

over the world, and if they are here legally they can be easier. I have

just been setting out things we will change and that includes those

responsible... What are we going to change? That depends on the

individual. We are not going to say that a Russian who is here entirely

legally cannot come to London, of course we are not going to say that,

but the consequences, the economic, trade and financial consequences, as

again set out on Thursday, of Russia continuing to make the situation

worse would be far reaching in the words of the European Council. That

has to be taken seriously. Yes, people can say none of those things

bring about any immediate resolution, and we are trying every

diplomatic effort to do so, but they are rising cost to Russia, behaving

in this way, and it is right that we do that because it is in our

national interest that international treaties are upheld and it has been

violated by the actions of Russia. President Putin says there are no

Russian troops in Crimea, is he lying? There clearly are Russian

troops in Crimea, people with Russian equipment. All of the

evidence is that they are, there is no plausible explanation of where

else they may have come from. So President Putin is trying to deceive

the world on this. There is nothing that we are saying or doing that

will make them leave, so to that limited extent at least for the time

being, the Russians have got what they want. They have taken

possession of Crimea but I would argue it would be in the interests

of Russia, faced with these short-term and long-term

consequences of this action, to enter into a diplomatic process with

Ukraine. This is what John Kerry is trying to bring about with the

support of countries like the UK, I will be talking to him later about

the next steps. By the way John Kerry is not saying he wants to

close down diplomatic space, he is saying Russia's actions in going

ahead with such a rushed referendum, preventing the monitors getting into

Crimea, those things are closing down the diplomatic space. But that

referendum is going to take place presumably, and if it says, yes, we

want to be part of Russia, that will happen. There seems to be a tacit

acceptance that the Russians will keep Crimea, and as long as they

don't push into mainland Ukraine we will shake our heads and walk away

in the end. I don't think there is a tacit acceptance. Some of the

consequences we were talking about will follow if that happens.

Certainly those long-term things I talked about will happen. This is

the creation of another frozen conflict in Europe, like we have

seen in Georgia and Moldova. Is it clear in Shakespeare who said, I

shall do such terrible things... It sounds like that. There will be

terrible consequences, we don't know what they will be but there will be

terrible consequences. I have just explained what some of them will be,

and there is a danger for Russia that they have made a

miscalculation. Their plan was clearly adopted at short notice,

they hadn't expected the former president Yanukovych to leave the

country. It will turn out that this is a miscalculation because the

long-term effect will be to unite Ukraine more against Russian

domination and to recast European policies in a way that will reduce

Russian Loveridge over Europe. Last time we spoke I talked about the

Russian tanks going in, they were armoured personnel carriers, but

what if the Russian tanks go into mainland Ukraine? Is there anything

the west can do to stop it happening? Anything that widens

still further this conflict and creates even greater dangers, that

would bring for Europe those far reaching consequences that the

European Council has talked about, and the United States would also

take extremely strong measures, and it is clear that everything we have

seen from the Ukraine in recent days, there isn't popular support

for any such Russian intervention. If the EU countries were going to be

really tough with Russians and cut off the oil and gas contracts, they

would need to get that coming in particularly from America, and there

needs to be new talks about energy supplies. Are those talks starting?

It is now beginning to be discussed. So you are talking to John Kerry and

President Obama about this? Yes, there is an increased case for that.

In December I was at the inauguration of a new pipeline that

might take several years to construct, from the Caspian Sea into

southern Europe, bringing gas supplies that do not pass through

Russia. The case for such developments will increase now. So

Europe will work hard and fast to limits and it -- limit its

independence on Russia in the future? We will be leading the way

in advocating that, if we don't make any progress. In the coming days we

will be using every diplomatic channels to reduce these tensions,

to reduce the danger of provocation or a sudden flash point creating an

even worse situation. If none of that succeeds, many of the other

consequences will follow. Now, the news headlines. The Foreign

Secretary has does -- described the news headlines. The Foreign

Russian intervention in Ukraine is a serious miscalculation. He said

other countries would recast their relationships with Russia. William

Hague said there would be rising costs if Russia made the situation

worse. Pro-and anti-Russian demonstrations are due to take place

across the Ukraine today. President Obama has warned Russia that any

attempts to annex the Crimean region would close the door to diplomacy.

Search teams are trying to establish what happened to Malaysia Airlines

passenger plane that disappeared over the South China Sea. Radar

signals show the plane may have turned back shortly before it

vanished. Vietnamese planes have spotted oil slicks in the seat but

no wreckage has been found. Malaysian officials say they are now

investigating the identities of two passengers who were flying on stolen

passports. That's all from me. The next news on

BBC One is at one o'clock. Back to Andrew in a moment. First, a look at

what's coming up immediately after this programme. Join us when we will

be talking about our moral obligation to Ukraine, and we will

be talking about children brought up by fundamentalists - can they be

damaged? The Foreign Secretary is still with

us, and we're joined once more by Gavin Hewitt, the BBC's Europe

Editor. Now, these are good times for powerfully-voiced, female

singer-songwriters. One of the most original talents to emerge in the

past few years is Paloma Faith, known for her flamboyant costumes

and highly stylised videos and stage shows. Her first two albums were

hugely successful, with platinum sales. She's about to release her

third, and we'll hear a track from it in a moment. Paloma, tell us a

little bit about this album. I decided to stop complaining about

melancholy and emotional heartbreak, and think, it is going to happen so

I may as well dance about it. Something more upbeat? Yes, I

decided to release something new, it is called A Perfect Contradiction.

Gavin, what did you make of the lack of armoury, it seems to many people,

in the west? There is one scenario that might create extra difficulties

for the west and the UK. If Russia were to push into mainland Ukraine,

from having been there in the last few weeks, I'm convinced that some

Ukrainians would be provoked into retaliating. At that moment, we

would have conflict at the heart of Europe. In those circumstances,

would you reply as you have just done that there is essentially

nothing we can do, certainly on a military level, or is that the

moment then you would consider having trade sanctions? I just said

in my answer to Andrew about that, there would be far reaching trade

and economic consequences of any such thing. Certainly that would

bring about those consequences, and it would bring a great danger of a

real shooting conflict. Ukrainian army is comparatively speaking tiny

compared to the Russian forces, so would weep at that point to say to

the Ukrainians, don't fight. We have commended their restraint so far. It

is not really possible to go through different scenarios with the

Ukrainians and say, in these circumstances you shoot, in these,

you don't. They have not risen to any provocation from Russia so we

have to concentrate on putting out that message. Thank you, both.

That's all we have time for today. Next week, I'll be talking to the

Chancellor George Osborne and his Labour shadow, Ed Balls, ahead of

the Budget. Plus Scotland's First Minister, Alex Salmond. But we leave

you now with Paloma Faith, and her new song, Can't Rely On You.

Goodbye. # How would you gon' do, no this way

# I work so hard for you every day # While you out, late night # Girl,

what you do? # Chillin' with who? # While I'm sitting at home # Come on

with it! # I don't know what this world is

coming to. # I just can't rely on you # I just

can't rely on you # Yeah, you got that good stuff but that don't last

# So I just can't rely on you # Just can't rely on you # Oh, Lord # How

am I to ever explain? # I'm a melted heart, went right

down the drain # Cos if you don't want me # Come on with it!

# I don't know what this world is coming to.

# I just can't rely on you # I just can't rely on you # Yeah, you got

that good stuff but that don't last # So I just can't rely on you # Just

can't rely on you # Time to go # Really # You can say what you want #

But I'm out that door # Can't stop me # Oh, my man # Oh, Lord # I just

can't rely on you # I just can't rely on you # Yeah, you got that

good stuff but that don't last # So I just can't rely on you # Just