02/03/2014 The Andrew Marr Show

Good morning. Political quote of the week; "We are on the brink of a

disaster and this is the government of political suiciders. Welcome to

Hell." Doesn't sound like David Cameron. George Osborne? No, of

course, it is the interim Prime Minister of the Ukraine and sadly,

this morning, with Russian troops in the Crimea it doesn't sound like

exaggeration. The clash of old empires. You'd hope

for a historian, therefore, to review the papers. Bang on cue,

welcome Sir Max Hastings, author of books on the First, and many other

wars. And, so we can keep close to our political news as well, Labour's

former Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith. We'll hear the latest reports from

Ukraine, of course. But in the background to this situation is the

desire of many Ukrainians to join the EU, seeing it as the modern,

democratic way forward for their country. That's not exactly, I

suspect, the view of Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP, who's here this

morning. This is it. This is the big one for UKIP. We can achieve

something remarkable in these elections. We be top those polls.

Can the Kippers win the European elections here in May? We'll be

discussing that and treating UKIP as a serious party, whose numbers

therefore have to add up. UKIP have been deriding the

Conservatives this week over Europe and the immigration figures. Worried

Tories are demanding the return of Boris Johnson to frontline politics,

perhaps as party Chairman. What does current chairman Grant Shapps - also

tipped as a future leader - think of all that?

And we've got another leader who's certainly been making waves this

week: a prince, no less, a prince of the Catholic Church and recently

appointed Cardinal, Vincent Nichols. He attacked the government recently

over its welfare policies and was rebuked as naive and plain wrong by

ministers. A chastened cardinal, or a defiant one?

Then, back to the First World War, and that very fine actor, Tim

Pigott-Smith reflects on a new drama, charting the 37 days leading

up to the conflict. And finally some great music from

the Kaiser Chiefs. An apt name, but entirely coincidental - we're not

that well organised. First, straight to the news with

Sian Lloyd. Good morning. NATO ambassadors have

been summoned for emergency talks to discuss the escalating crisis in

Ukraine, where the country's military is on full combat alert.

Last night, the United States warned Russia that its forces must stand

down, after politicians in Moscow approved the use of its troops in

Ukraine. The Foreign Secretary William Hague will travel to Kiev

today, saying he's deeply concerned about the escalating tension. Simon

Clemison reports. Thousands of miles away from Ukraine

but just as tense, the phone conversation in which Barack Obama

urges Russia to send its military forces back to base. In response,

President Putin makes it clear he has no intention of retreating. The

UN Security Council has met are. Its powers are limited because Russia's

a member and can veto any action. The Secretary-General has been on

the phone to Mr Putin to air his grave concerns. As it approved the

use of its troops in Ukraine, Russian armour was already on the

ground in the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine said it was an act of

aggression and put its own armed forces on full alert. Today William

Hague is travel to Kiev. We'll use every possible diplomatic channel to

make clear our concern and to see clarification from Russia of its

intentions and to ask for a de-escalation by all concerned.

Ukraine pulled back from the brink of a war to be left the new crisis.

The next move by any one party will be critical.

Authorities in China have blamed a separatist movement for a knife

attack at a train station which left 29 people dead and 130 wounded. The

ten attackers rushed at commuters at Kunming station in the south-west of

the country yesterday evening. Here, the former Northern Ireland

Secretary Peter Hain has said that pursuing British soldiers involved

in what became known as Bloody Sunday is a waste of police time.

13 civilians were killed in Londonderry in 1972, while the 14th

victim died five months later. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Mr

Hain argues the focus now should be on attacks from dissident IRA

groups. His intervention comes days after it emerged that British

Governments had written to more than 180 Republican paramilitary suspects

to say they would not be prosecuted. The gambling industry has been

criticised by the Government for not doing enough to protect people from

losing money on high stakes betting machines in bookmakers. The Culture

Secretary, Maria Miller, says she wants to introduce a compulsory code

of conduct which forces players to set time and spending limits before

they start playing. The Association of British Bookmakers has welcomed

the move but insists only a minority become addicted.

That's all from me, for now. I'll be back with the headlines just before

10.00am. Back to you, Andrew. Thank you Sian. So, Ukraine's armed

forces are on full combat alert, officials there say Russian warships

have been spotted off the Crimean coast and thousands of Russian

troops are now on the ground. I'm joined now from Sevastopol in

Crimea by our correspondent, Christian Fraser. Your colleague

John Simpson tried to get in and was stopped, foolishly not wear a burka.

He's seen troops digging trenches on the borders? Russian troops? Yes, a

very determined effort by John to get into Crimea. The fact he's not

here tells you how much control the Russians have over the land and sky

entrances. The airport has reopened today. A flight has landed from

Moscow. At the northern-most tip of the peninsula, the Russians are

digging in, quite literally, trenches on either side of the road

coming into Crimea. Quite hostile as well. A dozen or so Russian troops

with machine-guns pointing towards Ukraine. I heard he has been able to

get a train across the border. We may seem him here later in the day.

It underlies the tension we are he we are feeling here. The Russian

troops are enKirkling the key assets in the peninsula waiting to see what

the new interim Government in the Crimea will do.

Any sign of the Ukrainian forces? We have seen Russians but not much of

the Ukrainians so far? It has been calm at the airport but we are

getting more disturbing reports this morning. We've heard of a

confrontation in a town to the south of us in the peninsula, a radar

installation base where Ukrainian forces handed over machine-guns and

pistols to Russian forces. There's another place around the corner from

there. It is a holiday resort on the south-easterly most tip. The sort of

place where wealthy Russians would go for their summer holidays. Down

there is a rook Arabian marine unit who've refused to hand over their

weapons. We understand they've been handed an ultimatum to hand over

those weapons and to bow to the new leadership in Crimea, something the

Ukrainian soldiers have refused to do. We'll watch it. Nothing has and

as yet but it is a precursor to potentially what could happen here.

A mange concern to the NATO ambassadors meeting in Brussels

today. Now to the papers. And Ukraine

dominates as you'd expect all the serious papers. Sunday Times, Putin

pushes Ukraine to the bring of war. A story about Sol Campbell. He could

have been captain of the England team had he not been black. The

Observer, Ukraine PM warns of war. Sunday Telegraph, Ukraine tells

Putin, this could be war. Immigration, we'll talk about that

later on. Mail on Sunday, rage of Boris at Osborne the liar. This is

about whether Boris will return to frontline politics before the

election or not. We may talk about that later on with Grant Shapps.

Welcome to Max Hastings and Jacqui Smith. We'll start with the Ukraine,

Max, a big spread there in the Sunday Times. Putin send in forces

to launch a new empire The tragedy of modern Russia is it only has

three exports which are bankable. Oil, gas and fear. Putin's only

language is the language of force. Most of the comment in the papers,

very sensible, the West will not intervene militarily. We should not

talk about 1914 come again. In the end, if, as seems likely, Putin is

determined that Russia will Rhian necks the Crimea, it seems likely he

-- Rhian ex-the Crimea, It might end up with the Russia taking the Crimea

back? I think the comments are extremely sensible. Everybody

recognises, one has to, it is so depressing seeing Russia behaving in

the old style. Putin says Stalin is one of the greatest Russians of all

time. It is Putin playing the Tsar. Jackie, you've chosen the Sun's

coverage? This is one of those stories given the geopolitical

history that makes it difficult for red tops to cover. But the Sun's

done quite a good job. It asks quay questions. How will western powers

react? As Max rightly says, it is quite difficult to think about what

the appropriate reaction is given the audacity and approach of Putin.

What is the appropriate reaction? The answer to The Sun's question is

Barack Obama warned, there will be costs. But that's inadequate. It is

a long way off. Some of the best coverage of the Ukraine is the

Independent on Sunday. I'm rather impressed. A good piece by the

former rashing ton ambassador rod I can Braithwaite. No wonder Putin

says Crimea is Russian. The issues are complex. The Russians took a

million casualties in the Crimea and more in the Second World War

fighting first of all to hold it against the Germans and then to push

them out again. Crimea is huge in Russian folklore. It was handed over

by Kristov in 1954. We have to we can the rest EU history. And the

fact this whole business of Russian minorities has been at the root of

an awful lot of European conflicts for the last,000 and years. Not only

in the Crimea is the majority Russian speaking but also in the

Ukraine. Is Putin for the eastern Ukrainian provinces as well as

Crimea? It goes back to the break-up of the Austrian Hungarian empire. It

is this business of minorities. Where are the rightful boundaries of

the state. We think we know ours but the Scots are raising issues about

that. This question of whose rights deserve to be considered? What

everybody and Roderick recognises in this piece, before we rush to

judgment, one has to consider ethnic Russians in the Crimea and the

eastern Ukraine have rights too. Putin has totally wrong footed

himself by sending in troops. Last night, in the UN security County

Council, the Russian representative justified this action on the basis

they were protects Russian people within the you can rape. So when

you're beginning to see difficulties in some of the other Russian

speaking parts of eastern Ukraine, that potentially can can be used as

a justification. One thing we know from modern history, it is simply

impossible to absolutely do everything to satisfy the claims and

rights of every minority. It is something everybody will argue about

till the end of time. Ask the Catholics in Ireland. Ask the Scots

in the UK. It goes on and on. It is a very difficult ask. The only

thing, again, the papers commentary is sensible, you can't rush to

judgment about this. You have to think very hard. Let's move on to

another story. It has been a big week for the Labour Party, change in

the rule book. It is now ?3 to join the Labour Party as a supporter?

This was a significant result for Ed Miliband yesterday in the special

conference. The Opener is interesting and some other

newspapers. Taking us back in some ways to a special conference of 1981

when David Owen and the rest of gang of four having argued formed the

SDP. David Owen is back support supporting Labour. Good thing? I'm

very, very happy if David Owen wants to donate more than ?2,500,000 to

help back Labour. His reasons are one -- 7,000. He believes only

Labour can reverse the NHS legislation and save it without

major reorganisation. So, he's not going to rejoin Labour. He'll

continue to sit as a cross-bench peer. For the blood pressure of

Labour Party members, that's probably a good thing. When you have

a reform supported by David Owen and Len McCluskey that's a big tent and

big reform. Interesting story here, RBS. Most of my friends in the City

believe that the roots of all the terrible things that have happened

to customers and the appalling racket started with free banking.

Once the banks all had to go along with free banking, that was what

drove them to these unbelievably shoddy and shaky schemes. They have

ended up having to pay billions in fines and they have skinned the

customer is rotten. Maybe if we did have to pay for our banking, we

could see honestly what things cost instead of being skinned by these

banks. Absolutely. Another huge story is the paedophile story inside

the Labour Party. Harriet Harman and Patricia Hewitt and Jack Dromey in

the firing line. That carries on today. Increasingly it is becoming

clear that all of those that happened in the 1970s demonstrates

to us that the 1970s was another time and they did things very

differently then. In actual fact, another element of this story

covered in the newspapers as well suggests that the Home Office was

providing funding to the Paedophile Information Exchange. I think the

time has come and it came some time ago to say that that was a different

time. Patricia Hewitt had responsibility for the liberties

counsel at the time and has said that she regrets how much she was

taken in. Harriet Harman has not apologised. G has said she regrets

the link. But he also says if she did not do something wrong, then why

apologise? -- she also says. I would suggest that if Harriet Harman had

come clean at the beginning, she would not have ended up with mud on

her face. I strongly disagree. If she had apologised, it would have

been picked over. Yes, you apologised for that but not this.

She did not say sorry for something most of us would say sorry for if we

had made that mistake. I think regret has been expressed rightly by

those who had responsibility. Moving on. The next Tory is about

immigration. Yes, Liam Fox wading in. -- the next story. Saying that

David Cameron has ditched the statistical nonsense, and one good

reason for that is that they will wholly missed the crude cap on

immigration. As former Home Secretary you know that it is

impossible to say how many can come in under EU rules. And actually I am

sympathetic with the idea that Liam Fox suggests, which would be to

think about the impact of immigration. And the difference

between me and Liam Fox and Nigel Farage is that I would like the

evidence of the impacts of immigration, rather than basing

policy on anecdotes about how many foreign voices you may or may not

hear on a train trip, as Nigel has done this week. There are impacts of

immigration, good and bad. I think it is a sensible policy as Ed

Miliband has suggested to think about how we address that. Those of

us of a certain age have been taking statins for a long time. You and I

agreed before the show that the Sunday express has a splash and I am

not normally a keen reader of this paper. Millions face terrible

side-effects as the drug is planned for one in four. I have been taking

statins for about seven years and nobody told me that there are side

effects when they first prescribed them and it is a serious issue. Mean

either but I have a local restaurant as a result. -- me neither. They can

be very good for your health. And slow broadband can take 20% off your

house price. This is almost the fourth utility after gas, water and

electricity. We have slow broadband. Bad news if you want to sell your

house. Bright move has an element on how quick broadband is. Thank you

very much. And the weather marches upon us with the daffodils out. It

is officially spring but is it really? Cold and wet this morning.

How long can the misery go on? Let's find out.

How long can the misery go on? Hello. We have got signs of milder

weather spreading in across southern parts of Britain later in the week.

Before we reach that point, some unsettled days to content with.

Yesterday was glorious and to date a different picture with cloudy skies

and turning windier. -- today. This weather front pushes East bringing

wind and rain. Head of it, brightness and patchy rain before

rain pushes into Northern Ireland, Wales and the South West of

England, accompanied by gale force winds in South. The northern half of

Scotland will be sheltered from the winds and will have a decent

afternoon. Heavy rain pushing through Northern Ireland and

reaching southern and western Scotland, North West England and the

Midlands as well. The far eastern corner will be dry at this stage but

it will be windy. Heavy bursts of rain likely in the South West. A

weak area of low pressure sitting on top of us. Some showers will be

heavy and slow moving with hail and thunder on Monday. High pressure is

building in the continent so southern parts of Britain will seem

mild weather developing. Thank you. Even by the standards of St Peters

Basilica in Rome, the ceremony last weekend in which Pope Francis

appointed 19 new cardinals was a glittering occasion. Among them was

Vincent Nichols, the head of the Roman Catholic Church in England.

His elevation means he joins the ranks of the pro-'s most senior

advisers and in theory could be the first British popes in the middle

ages. -- the Pope's most senior advisers. He has been making waves

recently here with strong criticism of the impact of the Government's

welfare reforms. Cardinal Nichols is with me now. Good morning. You have

been speaking out about issues like inequality and poverty. Is this a

sign of change in the church under the new Pope, speaking less about

matters of personal morality and more about big social issues? Well

Pope Francis with his experience of South America is very committed to

saying that the unfolding of the Christian faith means having a

particular eye for those who are poor. He has a very striking phrase.

If you want to listen to God, you will hear the cry of the poor. My

comments were simply to reflect what priests on the ground are telling me

up and down the country and certainly in the City. Ministers

have attacked you about what you said about the welfare state, saying

they are spending more and more on the welfare state and bills are

going up, so any notion that the safety net has been shredded cannot

be true and that you were well meaning but naive. It would be nice

if they commented on what I actually said, which was the evidence is

there that people are living in destitution. It is not naive to

state facts. It is accurate. What is interesting to me, since I made

those remarks ten days ago, different voices have joined in and

said that is right. Even before I said that, there was a committee at

the House of Commons, and they made a report on the 28th of January

making very similar points. I am quite glad now for example that

there is an independent committee that will be looking into the

incidences of poverty, chaired by the Bishop of Truro, and I think

that is a very good thing. What about the comments by Iain Duncan

Smith who said it is not moral and Christian for poor taxpayers to be

contributing to welfare bills that can beat ?70,000 for people who are

not working, and you can trap them into a cycle of deprivation. I

understand the cycle of deprivation and I have seen it. No point did I

comment that Government poverty in itself was wrong. I said there were

clear implications of it, and we can see families in destitution, which

is a disgrace in a family as rich as this. Priests from inner-city

parishes around the country come to you. Yes, sometimes it is suggested

people have records to food banks because it becomes a commodity they

can sell on. I speak to my priests and they say when they put three

days of food in front of a woman with her children and she bursts

into tears because she has not eaten for three days, that is not a

fantasy. That is human lives. One of the great gifts of Pope Francis is

to say to us, mainly through his gestures, that we must protect the

dignity of people. Even if they have a deformed face. Even if they are

limited in their physical mobility. Essential human dignity is what we

must uphold and protect. Do you think there are aspects of the

current welfare systems that are immoral? I think the current welfare

system does need reform. I don't disagree on the principle on which

the Government is working but it cannot be at the cost of casting

people into destitution. I don't believe that is motivational. Some

of the priests right there on the ground say it comes across as

punitive. The sources and reasons for that kind of poverty are complex

and we have to look at them. We should get our priests together to

hear the stories. I know we can have a conversation with Government

officials along those lines. Last time we talked, you were an

archbishop and now you are a cardinal. What is different in terms

of your authority in the church at what you can do? In this country,

nothing at all in terms of church life. People pay more attention to

what I say, it seems, and I have more tasks and jobs to contribute to

the holy see in Rome. You have some lovely red gear that you are not

wearing at the moment. Yes, that is right. There is imagery that lies

behind that choice of colour. It is also the colour of the cardinal

bird. It has a greater range of melodies and songs than practically

any other bird anywhere. I am looking forward to having that an

suite of the day. It is also the colour of Liverpool and you have

been on the terraces of Anfield and that is where you had your calling.

It was not quite like that. It was where I wanted to resist the sense

of vocation more than anywhere else. I remember being at the

Anfield Road end and asking God to leave me alone. Why can't I be one

of this crowd? I would be happier. But he would not go away. He would

add -- I would add that I have never been really depressed since I was

ordained. It is a wonderful way of life. When do you think Pope Francis

will come to this country? Well, he is not a young man and he has his

agenda very clear in his mind. I am not sure that being an international

traveller is part of it. He is pacing himself. His next visit will

be to the holy land, the Middle East, which is obviously

strategically very important. I imagine he will pick his trips with

great care that he is a man of steel as well as great humanity. It has

been lovely talking to you. Thank you for joining us. As UKIP come of

age as a permanent force in British politics? Judging by the level of

interest in the spring conference, the answer seems to be yes. Their

leader, Nigel Farage, describes his party as the biggest threat to the

political establishment seen in modern times, but it is still a

party without a single MP and under the first past the post system, is

it may struggle to win seats at the next election despite opinion poll

ratings in double figures. Nigel Farage joins me now. Welcome. You

are likely to do well in the wrong election, the European elections.

You don't really have any influence on the European Parliament but to

call this country out of the EU, you need to do well in parliamentary

elections. Surprised everybody by coming second in the European

elections in 2009 and everybody told us we would not do it but last night

we got a quarter of the vote and we got 150 people elected as county

councillors. We have shown in the last six by-elections that we are

making great progress. But it needs to be the national Government who

pull Britain out if that is going to happen. That is right. There needs

to be MPs that will pass the resolution in Parliament and in the

end it will be the people. If we left it to the political elite, we

would never even have the discussion. All the commentators

talk about what UKIP will do and what the impact of the UKIP vote is

on the Tories and Labour. We have a European election and that is what I

am campaigning on. You don't really have any influence. I don't think

Britain has any influence in Brussels at all. There's a new thing

people have to decide if they want to be a UKIP candidate. One thing

you ask is if you have any skeletons in your closet? What sort of things

are you talking about? We do police checks, CRB checks. Tough

interviews. Over the years, some people have put UKIP down badly.

What are you trying to screen out? People who would be a huge

distraction that doesn't mean I want to turn it into New Labour. I want

it to be a party with debate but not to distract from the main messages,

about who governs the country. Ed sing rattic but not eccentric? Fine,

I'll go with that. Let's turn back to the general election. You'll

resign as party leader if you don't get one seat. That's an unambitious

promise? I'm fighting an election in 82 day's time. We have a chance of

topping the polls in that election. These are the most important ever

fought in this countriment and the leaderships of the so-called major

parties will be seriously affected by that result. I'm not going to

speculate about what happens in 2015. If UKIP does as well as I hope

it can, first, it has to get momentum through these European

elections. What about immigration? We've had immigration figures

bouncing back up again. Is that an even bigger issue for you than the

EU? The British public now understand we can't have our own

immigration policy. It is meaningless to set set tens of

thousands a year. We can't have control over who comes to Britain

while we are part of the European Union. If you look at the

Mediterranean, the eurozone, look at how badly they are doing, there's

nothing we can do to stop hundreds of thousands of people coming to

Britain. Why is this a problem? We are seeing skilled people coming

from Poland, France. Germany. These are people with huge amounts of

skill and energy. The truth about open door immigration is we don't

choose the number or the quality. Whilst you are quite right there are

many people who have come from Eastern Europe who are working dam

hard. If I was Romanian I would be here. We have masses of people

earning minimum wage quell if Iing for in-work benefits, changing our

communities wherein many cases people are saying, is this the town

I know, is this where I grew up? It is not just about money or whether

the GDP... It is about nostalgia? No, about community. Who we are as a

sense of where we belong. I toured England. I met many people who said

we've never had a problem with immigration. But how many people can

we take? What chance have our kids got of getting jobs? Whiam I,

whether I'm driving in a lorry, working in a factory, whiam I

finding my take-home pay is less than it was five years ago. That is

economic failure? We have a distorted Labour market. A mass

oversupply of unskilled, semi skilled and in some cases skilled

Labour. It's driven down wages and hurt those at the bottom of the

society most. In UKIP's world would there be a complete ban? Of course

not. We'd operate a work per knit system. You've talked about

Australia? Yes. In net terms, they have higher immigration than we have

and proportionally they have under the Australian system? They are

quite a big country. There's a lot of room. If you travel around

London... Most of it is sand? A lot is but you can build things on sand.

It happens in Dubai and elsewhere. The Australians have quality

control. We need to get to a situation where we've sorted out

who's here legally or illegally. That's not being discussed. To have

an immigration based on quality control. Surely that makes sense.

Your critics say you say one thing to one audience and another to

another audience. You say you were brave enough to protect spending.

Nationally, look hard at the benefits. In Wythenshawe you say

not. What we have to avoid is doing what the Liberal Democrats did. Not

wearing sandals but... The Liberal Democrats tended to chop and change

their messages. What we were saying in the Wythenshawe by-election is we

don't want to give ?55 million to the EU or ?25 million in foreign

aid. We need to be careful. There's been an amount of mixed messages? I

don't think it is as strong as that. People run election campaigns and in

the short-term change the message slightly. We to to make sure we are

consistent. Would you carry on funding the NHS? We want it to

deliver the best possible outcome. That's a very political answer?

There are some great bits of the NHS other bits which are failing. Labour

double spent on the Health Service but didn't get double the return.

Would you carry on spending? If we can get the same result spending

less, that's what we would do. So the answer is no? Let's see where we

can make savings given middle management's grown by over 40%.

There are places here where we can make genuine savings. Would you

raise taxes to spend more on welfare or health? . The lessons of tax,

when you raise tax, tax number goes down. The most important tax reform

we need is anybody earning minimum wage is not paying tax to

incentivise people to get off. The big challenge for UKIP after the

European elections is to put a manifesto together that doesn't

resemble War and Peace. And has some numbers that add up and we're

working on that. We'll see a properly costed? You certainly will

but not until after the European elections. For the next 82 days we

want to campaign on who governs the country. What the Conservatives say

again and again, vote UKIP, get Labour. It seems as if Ed Miliband

will change his policy a bit on referendum. Doesn't that scupper

your defence? Miliband will promise a referendum. It's a tradition that

everybody promise referendum and never delivers it. Only a third of

our vote comes from the Conservatives. When you poll UKIP

voters saying if there was no UKIP candidate who would you vote for?

Most will not vote Conservatives. The Conservatives don't see Cameron

as a Conservatives. Back to the First World War. The lamps or going

out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our time was

the lament of Edward Grey, Britain's Foreign Secretary in 1914. There

there's a new drama on BBC Two this week which follows the events of

that fateful summer. 37 days chart the path to war to the decision in

Downing Street that Germany must be stopped. A fine cast makes this

three-parter a thriller and a tragedy. Tim Piggott-Smith plays the

beleagured Prime Minister Herbert Asquith. First, a pressent scene

about Russia. We do have a little difficulty understanding why

Russia's felt it necessary to mobilise her army. It is the same

thing as you did yesterday with the Royal Navy. It is not the same thing

at all. But it is. This is not a mobilisation. In our admin

administrative departments it is called a period prep are trito war.

Are you impressed with those Edward? He's not impressed. Playing with the

word cannot alter the fact quite soon you will have over one million

men at arms moving towards the Austrian frontier.

A period preparatory to war. This is an old fashioned drama. Wrestling

with complicated questions. It originated more from the documentary

department than the drama department but it's been put together with such

skill and integrity that it achieves the level of drama. It's a really

very informative drama. You played Asquith. At the end, had you come to

any different conclusions why the First World War started? I'm not an

historian. I knew quite a lot about the First World War. Most people say

the arch Duke is shot and we're in the trenches. This period of 37 days

during all this man overing which echoes so strangely what's going on

now will come as a surprise to people. I thought about this

recently, with Syria, we were looking at a situation where there

was nobody who said no, this has to stop. There wasn't an international

will for it then which there is now. With Syria someone did say no. What

about your character, Asquith. He was a great drunk. Qquiffy counts

from Asquith! He wrote five love letters during Cabinet meetings.

Perhaps his eye not on the ball? He was sandwiched between the hawks and

doves. The dab knit was falling apart. I don't think anybody really

quite knew exact exactly what was happening. The Foreign Secretary had

never even been to Germany. We think of the modern world with high levels

of communication. Then it was telegrams. Thousands pouring into

the Foreign Office. Millions a year. The other thing about Asquith there

was no room for in our drama, you don't see me writing love letters is

he was a serial groper too. This, of course, doesn't figure. You just see

this trapped man gradually losing control. Towards the end, there was

only two Cabinet resignations. The Cabinet dominated by Churchill on

the war side and Lloyd George? In 1916, at kith -- Asquith left and

Lloyd George took over. He didn't stay long. You've done a huge number

of stage roles. Do you regret the lack of serious television roles for

an actor like yourself? I'm lucky. I still keep going with nice stuff on

telly. I do think more of this to -- stuff would be welcome. Serious

drama? Intelligent drama that is informative. One of functions of

drama is to teach so people learn. I think people will learn a lot from

this. For me, this is the sort of thing that justifies the licence

fee. I'd pay the licence fee for Radio 4 alone. When you see

something like this no other company could produce it. The BBC have done

it. I watched it all and came to the conclusion the First World War could

not have been stopped. The Germans were determined to go into France

but human mistakes, a telephone call that didn't quite work, for

instance. Telegrams that were not quite clear enough hastened what

happened? It was an embarrassing moment for Grey. His telephone call

cut out to the German ambassadors. That send the wrong message to the

Kaiser. I think you're right. The arms race had been going on for some

years before the war. Lloyd George made a fuss in 1911 about something.

Lloyd George didn't join the Hawks until late on. It was the invasion

of Belgium when he said we can't sit back any longer. We have to go in.

Tim, thank you very much for joining us this morning.

37 Days starts on Thursday at 9.00 on BBC Two. Historical drama at its

best. This week, we've seen a huge rise in immigration numbers Anglia

meshing he will has been slapping down those who think the EU can be

radically reformed. Small wonder some are calling for the grace

missing link of politics himself, Boris Johnson. Are things really

that bad? The Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps is here.

Morning. Morning. Is he being summoned willingly? We all think he

is a fantastic London Mayor and he is doing a fantastic job. His tone

runs until 2016. So not welcome until 2016? That is up to Boris. He

has done a great contribution. He is part of what we are trying to do is

Government, which is that the biggest bust in 100 years is

recovered from and we end up with families that are better off with

less debt for our children to pay back. Boris Johnson is an important

part of doing that in London and I am sure he has a fantastic job ahead

of him. Would you like to see him playing a leading role in the next

election? Absolutely. That guy is able to communicate incredibly well

and it would be crazy for him not to be part of that message because

people in this country want to know that we are on their side and

dealing with long-term problems and continuing to cut the deficit while

dealing with big issues like immigration. And in what capacity?

Well, campaigning for a majority Conservative Government. Most people

would say that the coalition Government has got on with the big

job, to reduce the deficit, to save country from going bust and reduce

deficit. 78 out -- seven out of ten people say they want a majority

Government so that they can bring up their families in the security and

knowledge that there is a brighter future. Parties that are completely

behind families have been very pressed in this terrible and lengthy

downturn. It has been suggested that George Osborne would like Boris to

be bound in as an MP so that he is responsible for whatever happens in

the election campaign. People watching your programme will be much

more interested in what the Government is doing to make sure

children do not have to pay off our debts from this generation. Much

more than personalities doing this or that. I think Boris Johnson has

got a big future in the party and I want him to be an important part of

the campaign. Let's leave Boris steaming and having

behind-the-scenes and turn to be policy issues. You had a terrible

week in terms of figures. You are now way ahead of where you hope to

be. I don't agree. Those figures masked the fact that we have

immigration from outside the EU, the area we can most controlled. It is

down to the lowest level since 1998, so a big improvement. We have done

that by taking a series of steps to make sure that bogus colleges

offering fake degrees are closed down. But numbers are going up and

you promised they would go down. We are only part way through the

Parliament. Any chance of hitting the targets? Yes. In Europe, the

bits that we can start to contribute to, we have. We have said that you

can't just come here and start claiming benefits. We are

introducing new rules would mean that for the first three months, you

cannot claim at all. After six months, you can stop blaming. We

have tightened up access to housing and public services. I am pointing

out that you made the specific pledge to bring the numbers down.

That is still our goal. Let me make one thing clear. From outside the

EU, we have made huge progress on this. Within the EU, no affect at

all and you have no control on it. What has happened recently, the

older countries in EU, Spain and Portugal, those other citizens that

have been moving. To have further impact, we need reform within

Europe. That is why we are offering a referendum with renegotiation.

That takes us to Angela Merkel. She might go some way to looking at

benefit tourism, but in terms of free movement he said she was not

prepared to move at all and she is committed to a stronger, more

centralised European union and not radically changed decentralised one.

She is not someone who can save your bacon. That is not what I heard. She

said clearly in the press conference that she did not want to be Prime

Minister and where there is a will, there will be away. She said that

you will be disappointed. She quoted another area where people said it

would be impossible. People said it would be impossible for David

Cameron to cut the overall EU budget but that is exactly what he

achieved. People used to say that no British Prime Minister would be to

an EU treaty and that is exactly what he has done, getting us out of

the European bail-out. -- veto on EU treaty. I thought when Angela Merkel

said where there is a will, there is a way, she was making it very clear

that she believes in a kind of Europe that have to look outward,

where we have to compete with the rest of the world. Get rid of the

red tape. If we do those things, we will be successful. But this is the

catch. Either way, the British people will have a say in a

referendum but only if they vote Conservative. Have you got any

supporters inside the EU at all for that? I think the pleasure of a

referendum is something that the British Parliament provides and it

can only happen if people vote Conservative. What is negotiated is

then down to the process of negotiation. The only way to have

that in or out referendum is to vote Conservative. Unless of course the

Labour Party changes its policy and decide to have a referendum this

week. Anyone who believes that the Labour Party will seriously

negotiate with Europe, the party that handed away a large chunk of

the British rebate for absolutely nothing in return, the party that so

mismanaged our immigration system that people were able to come here

we now know, including recruiting people, this is not the party for

that. You have not found a serious ally for renegotiation of the

fundamental treaty. I want to challenge the idea that we are not

working hard. You are working hard but with no effect. We have had the

lowest immigration figures from outside the EU since 1998. And we

are now working inside the EU and that is why we want to renegotiate.

Are you going to get numbers down dramatically before the next general

election? I hope so. I hope it will be sunny for the rest of the year

but I can't guarantee it. What does hope mean? We have put measures in

place which should show in the figures. We have talked about

preventing people coming here from the EU and claiming welfare. And

they have to stop after six months. Those measures have been taken but

they are yet to be seen in the figures. So we will see them coming

down? I very much hope so. If you care about issues like immigration,

reducing welfare, continuing the recovery so that people have

security, a packet at the end of the month, and a job, and let's not

forget we have more jobs in the economy than ever before and more

women in work meaning security for families, and if you care about

those things, the only thing to do is to vote for a majority

Conservative Government. You got your message across very nicely at

the end. Thank you. The news headlines: NATO ambassadors have

been summoned for emergency talks to discuss the escalating crisis in

Ukraine, where the country's military is on full combat alert.

It comes amid reports that Russian troops are digging trenches on the

border with the Crimea. Last night the United States warned Russia that

its forces must stand down after politicians in Moscow approved the

use of its troops in the Ukraine. William Hague will travel to Kiev to

date saying he is deeply concerned about the escalating tension.

The UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said the big challenge facing his

party is to produce a manifesto which does not look like War and

Peace. He told this programme the party would have to make sure it's

figures added up when it came to policies on public spending. If NHS

services could be delivered as well or better with lower spending, then

savings should be made, he said. He said details of the UKIP policies

would emerge after the European elections in May.

The next news on BBC One is at one o'clock. But first a look at what is

coming up immediately after this programme.

Join us live from Peterborough at ten o'clock when we will be debating

the NHS. Should it be closing local hospitals? Prenuptial agreement, do

they undermine marriage? Teaching children morals. Is the Bible the

best guide? See you at ten o'clock on BBC One. Grant Shapps and Nigel

Farage are with me. The next election, UKIP Win two or

three seats and things are evenly balanced. Any chance of the two of

you working together in Government? I have been clear that we want a

majority Government because UKIP change that Nigel will no doubt talk

about. The only change he is likely to deliver is Miliband being closer

to Downing Street. RU brothers under the skin? Can you work together?

UKIP is not a splinter of the Conservative Party. The vast

majority of our members have never been members of the Conservative

Party and have never voted Conservative. We are starting this

debate from the wrong position. Really you are asking if we would do

a deal with the party that would give us a referendum and quickly on

our continued membership of the European Union. The answer is of

course. You have said this yourself, you can't actually deliver the

welfare reform, the immigration reform, or the referendum in

Europe. The only thing you can do is make it slightly easier for Ed

Miliband to walk into Downing Street and do exactly the opposite to those

things that you are saying... The numbers suggest that is simply not

true. The numbers suggest that even if in marginal seats there was not a

UKIP candidate, you are still going to lose those seats. That is because

40% of your votes have gone since the last election. Can I jump in?

Nigel said he would work with you under the circumstances so could you

work with him? I cannot be clear on this. We are going all out for a

majority Conservative Government to help hard-working families. UKIP

cannot deliver that. You cannot deliver immigration controls. That

is nearly at four this morning. They will carry on talking, I am sure.

Now the mutations. Kaiser Bill was not available but we have the Kaiser

Chiefs instead. -- now the musicians. Their albums have sold

millions of copies and Ricky Wilson is now one of the judges on The

Voice. Then you album Education, Education, Education And War will be

released later this month. -- their new album. Thank you for all my

guests this week. Next week I will be talking to Hillary Mantell,

author of Wolf Hall. We leave you with the Kaiser Chiefs and their new

single Coming Home. # Do you wish you hadn't stayed all

night? # Do you wish and you hadn't got so

high? # Do you wish you hadn't come?

# Oh, no. Got to go. # Do you wish it wasn't half past

gone? # Do you wish you didn't last that

long? # Do you wish you hadn't come?

# Oh, no. Got to go. # Got to run.

# May I remind you? # May I remind you that you got

nowhere to go? # Some stand beside you.

# Stand beside you till you find out where to go.

# We're going home. # We're going home.

# Light a fire. # We're coming home.

# We'll write it down. # We'll write it all down.

# It all comes flooding back to me. # The forgotten melody of a dream.

# It all comes flooding back to me. # The forgotten melody.

# We're coming home. # We're coming home.

# Light a fire. # We're coming home.

# We'll write it down. # We'll write it all down.

# We're coming home. # We're coming home.

# Light a fire. # We're coming home.

# We'll write it down. # We'll write it all down.