21/05/2014 The Papers


21/05/2014

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines. Presented by Clive Myrie.


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between Hamilton and opinion. In rugby, news regarding two of

:00:00.3:59:59

England's fly halves. Hello, and welcome to our look ahead

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to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are Beth Rigby,

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deputy political editor at The Financial Times, and John Kampfner,

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director of Creative Industries Federation.

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Let's look at some of the front pages. We are going to start with

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The Financial Times. It says the Bank of England is close to raising

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interest rates. The Daily Telegraph is reporting 15 million British

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users of eBay have to change their passwords after a security breach.

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The Independent is wondering if David Cameron and Boris Johnson will

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be Eurostars in the European elections. The Guardian says an

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internal the bull Democrat briefing paper is warning senior officials

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that the party could be completely wiped out in the European actions,

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failing to win a seat. The Metro also leads on the breach of eBay's

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users online safety, the hackers broke into a database. The Daily

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Mail says Russian diplomats will demand an explanation from the

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Foreign Office after Prince Charles reportedly likened Vladimir Putin to

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Adolf Hitler. We're going to start with the

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Independent. The European elections, a picture of or is Johnson and the

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Prime Minister. They are actually in this photograph, in Newark,

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campaigning for the by`election. Despite all of the mud flung at

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UKIP, Nigel Farage is maintaining his going to do very well? He is

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Teflon, nothing sticks. For weeks, all of the polls have suggested UKIP

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will either top the polls or come second behind Labour. That has not

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changed. You are left with the situation, do the Lib Dems end up

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with a complete wipe`out, no MEPs? Do the Conservatives then tear

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themselves apart after the European elections because a lot of their MPs

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get spooked, if UKIP have a strong show in their local constituency?

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There is a lot to play for. People don't necessarily... The public

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don't necessarily engage in European elections. Who even knows who their

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local European MP is? But in terms of the domestic lytic or picture,

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it's a big deal. `` the domestic picture. Is it the Conservatives

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that have the most to fear? We know that UKIP are taking votes and

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support from all the parties, but is it the Conservatives that have the

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most to fear about tomorrow's elections? By the way, I always love

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the choreography of news stories. I love the way you have this picture,

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this somewhat schmoozing, romantic picture of Dave and Boris, nestling

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up together on this bench. I love the idea of the spin doctors behind

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the camera saying, out of the way, everybody else, we want a picture of

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the guys on their own! It is probably a crowded platform. It's

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the classic way to manufacture a picture. The point about Nigel

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Farage, nothing sticking, that is right. I think all three mainstream

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leaders have got a lot to lose. Paradoxically, I think they have all

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factored in their night of humiliation already. They may have

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done, but the public probably hasn't. For David Cameron, he should

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be doing pretty well. He is going to come third place, if elections are

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correct, which is pretty terrible for the Conservatives. Even if

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Labour women, they should be streets ahead at this point, they may not

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even win, UKIP may win. As you were alluding to in the headlines, the

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Lib Dems fear they will be completely wiped out, they could get

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zero or two at very best, five out of 11 MEPs re`elected. In different

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ways, different reasons, disasters for all three. Nick Clegg was on the

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Andrew Marr Show on Sunday and was saying, he was trying to deflect the

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attention away from what was going to be a drubbing for them, that

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Labour, one big story that could come out of this, is that Labour get

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really attacked by UKIP in the northern heartlands, their

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heartlands. That could become an emerging story. At the moment, it is

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always about the Tories versus UKIP. Actually, UKIP is about

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disaffection. There are lots of people in the north that probably

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feel disaffected as well. Don't forget, in the old days,

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disaffection and Andy politics usually went to the Lib Dems. Now

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they are part of the establishment, part of government. The elite,

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according to Nigel Farage. Let's go to the Guardian. Lib Dems braced for

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total wipe`out. Is it a possible point of solace for the main parties

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that when it comes to Europe, we are talking about proportional

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representation? A smaller party like UKIP is bound to do better than it

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would do in 2015? Also, there is a long, established history, not just

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in the UK but in other countries. Andy politics parties all over the

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shop in Europe are going to do well. `` anti`politics. You are

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looking at France, the Netherlands, elsewhere. Usually parties of the

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right, but not necessarily, they are going to do well. They are all kind

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of normal the above, antiestablishment parties. When you

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come to general elections, particularly first past the post, so

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the conventional wisdom goes, to be tested, people get spooked by the

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possibility and revert back to the conventional ways. But there is a

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lot of our politics now that is different. That has been a trend for

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so long to move away from the two main parties. We have fixed

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parlance, what difference does that make us to knock that is a broader

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point. You have general disaffection. The easy reassurance,

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sure, we have the locals but everyone will grow up and move on

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after that, that will be tested. With all of the mode that has been

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flying at UKIP, none of it has stuck, they have an incredibly

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charismatic leader. They are tapping into, for a lot of people, a

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groundswell of disaffection that is chiming? I agree with that. Also,

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what UKIP have that appeals to people disaffected by politics, as

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one pundit said to me once, a strategist said, you know, 99% of

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politics is just noise. People don't pick up on it. Nigel Farage has a

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very simple proposition. Let's control immigration, let's get out

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of Europe. People can attach to that. I think he was actually...

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He's been a ubiquitous, everywhere, if I was on the Green Party, I would

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be annoyed. He was on the today programme this morning, on Radio 4,

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being interviewed. I thought what he said there was very interesting.

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Talking of this idea of the general election, the protest vote fall

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away, he said, no, we are going to use the European actions, the local

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elections, to bed in in areas where we can build a base. As the Lib Dems

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did in the Paddy Ashdown, we are going to get strongholds and build a

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base and build from the ground up. Actually, come 2015, we can put a

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dozen MPs in Parliament. It's not that preposterous, that idea.

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Particularly when you have a hung parliament. People do think that

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hung parliaments, a balance of power, it can be held by minority.

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That story will run and run, particularly after tomorrow. The

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front page of the Guardian as well, Beth, Theresa May stuns the Police

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Federation with a bow to break its power. She gave a 30 minute speech,

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and there was silence when she was finished, absolute silence. No

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booing, no cheering, no polite applause, nothing. They were so

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upset about what she said? Well, Home Secretary 's and police

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federations, this happens often in speeches. They usually do something,

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they don't sit there? Sometimes they boo, they are broken. She basically

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said today that the legitimacy of British policing is in the balance,

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following things like the Stephen Lawrence case. Plebgate, with Andrew

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Mitchell. She promised to break the power of the unions. Politically,

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what this shows, I think, is that she is a Home Secretary at the

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height of her power. She had a great run, she is tough and she feels

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empowered enough that she can really begin to take on the Police

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Federation. She is doing that against a backdrop of Chris

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Grayling, in the Department of Justice, with prison breaks. She has

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really gone for them. I have a different take on that. If you look

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at the bonfire of public bodies we were just talking about,

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antiestablishment stuff, Parliament is unpopular, journalists are

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unpopular and always have been, the BBC get a good kicking. There is

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probably no public body that is less popular and has less credibility

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than the Police Federation. You could list all of the stuff they

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have been up to, defending the indefensible, defending the old

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producer capture vested interests, instead of driving up standards.

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Theresa May, quite a divisive figure in her own right, I would wonder if

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she has not gained plaudits pretty much everywhere, with the exception

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of this project will interest group, by simply telling them what they

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should have done a long time ago, to sort themselves out. All this in the

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week that Abu Qatada went to jail? The Financial Times, the Bank of

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England, Beth, is edging closer to an early rate rise. Not if, but

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when, now? Basically, we have and the economic recovery seeming to be

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secured, wages rising, will inflation keep arising? Basically,

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the Bank of England is considering to raise interest rates from 0.5%,

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and it has been since 2009. The first European bank to do this since

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2011. This is politically very unwelcome by George Osborne. The

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smart money seemed to be on January, February, maybe March. Now

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it might be ill If you are the Chancellor, you don't want it to

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happen before the election. There are also savers as well. But they

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have been quite well served under George Osborne. Interestingly, this

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theme, and I think it will run, it has been picked up by Labour because

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they are very worried that Ed Miliband's cost of living crisis

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argument is falling away. Actually, if interest rates go up and

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everybody's mortgages go up, people like me, very heavily mortgaged from

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the heady days when you could borrow multiple times your salary on

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interest only... Depends how much, even 1%, I am old enough to remember

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15% interest rates. That is why it is likely to go up sooner, rather

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than later, so they can keep it gradual. That is why the suggestion

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is it could autumn. And the danger is, just as people are beginning to

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feel more optimistic about the economy, wages are now catching up

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with inflation, they are beginning to feel a bit like they have a bit

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more money in their pockets, suddenly their mortgage payments go

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up. Briefly, Russia and China striking a $400 billion deal the

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gas. Russia looking to China and not Europe to flog its energy.

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Absolutely. Diplomatic relations with the West, particularly the US

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and to a degree with Western Europe, have gone into freefall and there is

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no prospect of that calming down soon. President Putin is probably

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more in his comfort zone with the Chinese than the West. He dabbled in

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2000 for reasons that we could argue about at in the night but we have

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not got time. `` ad nauseam. And there is self`interest for the

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Russians to strike this particular deal but it has taken ten years to

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negotiate. It is all about Ukraine, isn't it? Well, what it does for

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Russia is it signals for Europe don't take my gas. I can do a deal

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with Asia. An analyst is quoted saying it is strategically important

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for Gazprom because it allows it to show Europe that it has other

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options. In terms of the leverage that Europe has, the limited

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leverage that Europe seems to have over Putin in terms of Ukraine, this

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has been knocked down. On the day that Prince Charles is said to have

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likened President Putin to Adolf Hitler. Thank you. You will be back

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in an hour for more of the stories that Fleet Street is trying to flog

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us. Stay with us on BBC News. Much more at the top of the hour but

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first it is Sportsday. Hello and welcome to Sportsday with

:14:07.:14:21.

me, Ore Oduba. Coming up tonight: England's under 17s show the seniors

:14:22.:14:24.

how it's done, winning the European Championship title on penalties.

:14:25.:14:31.

Hibs are a step closer to keeping their place in the Scottish

:14:32.:14:33.

Premiership, beating Hamilton in the play`off final first

:14:34.:14:35.

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