21/05/2014 The Papers

between Hamilton and opinion. In rugby, news regarding two of

England's fly halves. Hello, and welcome to our look ahead

to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are Beth Rigby,

deputy political editor at The Financial Times, and John Kampfner,

director of Creative Industries Federation.

Let's look at some of the front pages. We are going to start with

The Financial Times. It says the Bank of England is close to raising

interest rates. The Daily Telegraph is reporting 15 million British

users of eBay have to change their passwords after a security breach.

The Independent is wondering if David Cameron and Boris Johnson will

be Eurostars in the European elections. The Guardian says an

internal the bull Democrat briefing paper is warning senior officials

that the party could be completely wiped out in the European actions,

failing to win a seat. The Metro also leads on the breach of eBay's

users online safety, the hackers broke into a database. The Daily

Mail says Russian diplomats will demand an explanation from the

Foreign Office after Prince Charles reportedly likened Vladimir Putin to

Adolf Hitler. We're going to start with the

Independent. The European elections, a picture of or is Johnson and the

Prime Minister. They are actually in this photograph, in Newark,

campaigning for the by`election. Despite all of the mud flung at

UKIP, Nigel Farage is maintaining his going to do very well? He is

Teflon, nothing sticks. For weeks, all of the polls have suggested UKIP

will either top the polls or come second behind Labour. That has not

changed. You are left with the situation, do the Lib Dems end up

with a complete wipe`out, no MEPs? Do the Conservatives then tear

themselves apart after the European elections because a lot of their MPs

get spooked, if UKIP have a strong show in their local constituency?

There is a lot to play for. People don't necessarily... The public

don't necessarily engage in European elections. Who even knows who their

local European MP is? But in terms of the domestic lytic or picture,

it's a big deal. `` the domestic picture. Is it the Conservatives

that have the most to fear? We know that UKIP are taking votes and

support from all the parties, but is it the Conservatives that have the

most to fear about tomorrow's elections? By the way, I always love

the choreography of news stories. I love the way you have this picture,

this somewhat schmoozing, romantic picture of Dave and Boris, nestling

up together on this bench. I love the idea of the spin doctors behind

the camera saying, out of the way, everybody else, we want a picture of

the guys on their own! It is probably a crowded platform. It's

the classic way to manufacture a picture. The point about Nigel

Farage, nothing sticking, that is right. I think all three mainstream

leaders have got a lot to lose. Paradoxically, I think they have all

factored in their night of humiliation already. They may have

done, but the public probably hasn't. For David Cameron, he should

be doing pretty well. He is going to come third place, if elections are

correct, which is pretty terrible for the Conservatives. Even if

Labour women, they should be streets ahead at this point, they may not

even win, UKIP may win. As you were alluding to in the headlines, the

Lib Dems fear they will be completely wiped out, they could get

zero or two at very best, five out of 11 MEPs re`elected. In different

ways, different reasons, disasters for all three. Nick Clegg was on the

Andrew Marr Show on Sunday and was saying, he was trying to deflect the

attention away from what was going to be a drubbing for them, that

Labour, one big story that could come out of this, is that Labour get

really attacked by UKIP in the northern heartlands, their

heartlands. That could become an emerging story. At the moment, it is

always about the Tories versus UKIP. Actually, UKIP is about

disaffection. There are lots of people in the north that probably

feel disaffected as well. Don't forget, in the old days,

disaffection and Andy politics usually went to the Lib Dems. Now

they are part of the establishment, part of government. The elite,

according to Nigel Farage. Let's go to the Guardian. Lib Dems braced for

total wipe`out. Is it a possible point of solace for the main parties

that when it comes to Europe, we are talking about proportional

representation? A smaller party like UKIP is bound to do better than it

would do in 2015? Also, there is a long, established history, not just

in the UK but in other countries. Andy politics parties all over the

shop in Europe are going to do well. `` anti`politics. You are

looking at France, the Netherlands, elsewhere. Usually parties of the

right, but not necessarily, they are going to do well. They are all kind

of normal the above, antiestablishment parties. When you

come to general elections, particularly first past the post, so

the conventional wisdom goes, to be tested, people get spooked by the

possibility and revert back to the conventional ways. But there is a

lot of our politics now that is different. That has been a trend for

so long to move away from the two main parties. We have fixed

parlance, what difference does that make us to knock that is a broader

point. You have general disaffection. The easy reassurance,

sure, we have the locals but everyone will grow up and move on

after that, that will be tested. With all of the mode that has been

flying at UKIP, none of it has stuck, they have an incredibly

charismatic leader. They are tapping into, for a lot of people, a

groundswell of disaffection that is chiming? I agree with that. Also,

what UKIP have that appeals to people disaffected by politics, as

one pundit said to me once, a strategist said, you know, 99% of

politics is just noise. People don't pick up on it. Nigel Farage has a

very simple proposition. Let's control immigration, let's get out

of Europe. People can attach to that. I think he was actually...

He's been a ubiquitous, everywhere, if I was on the Green Party, I would

be annoyed. He was on the today programme this morning, on Radio 4,

being interviewed. I thought what he said there was very interesting.

Talking of this idea of the general election, the protest vote fall

away, he said, no, we are going to use the European actions, the local

elections, to bed in in areas where we can build a base. As the Lib Dems

did in the Paddy Ashdown, we are going to get strongholds and build a

base and build from the ground up. Actually, come 2015, we can put a

dozen MPs in Parliament. It's not that preposterous, that idea.

Particularly when you have a hung parliament. People do think that

hung parliaments, a balance of power, it can be held by minority.

That story will run and run, particularly after tomorrow. The

front page of the Guardian as well, Beth, Theresa May stuns the Police

Federation with a bow to break its power. She gave a 30 minute speech,

and there was silence when she was finished, absolute silence. No

booing, no cheering, no polite applause, nothing. They were so

upset about what she said? Well, Home Secretary 's and police

federations, this happens often in speeches. They usually do something,

they don't sit there? Sometimes they boo, they are broken. She basically

said today that the legitimacy of British policing is in the balance,

following things like the Stephen Lawrence case. Plebgate, with Andrew

Mitchell. She promised to break the power of the unions. Politically,

what this shows, I think, is that she is a Home Secretary at the

height of her power. She had a great run, she is tough and she feels

empowered enough that she can really begin to take on the Police

Federation. She is doing that against a backdrop of Chris

Grayling, in the Department of Justice, with prison breaks. She has

really gone for them. I have a different take on that. If you look

at the bonfire of public bodies we were just talking about,

antiestablishment stuff, Parliament is unpopular, journalists are

unpopular and always have been, the BBC get a good kicking. There is

probably no public body that is less popular and has less credibility

than the Police Federation. You could list all of the stuff they

have been up to, defending the indefensible, defending the old

producer capture vested interests, instead of driving up standards.

Theresa May, quite a divisive figure in her own right, I would wonder if

she has not gained plaudits pretty much everywhere, with the exception

of this project will interest group, by simply telling them what they

should have done a long time ago, to sort themselves out. All this in the

week that Abu Qatada went to jail? The Financial Times, the Bank of

England, Beth, is edging closer to an early rate rise. Not if, but

when, now? Basically, we have and the economic recovery seeming to be

secured, wages rising, will inflation keep arising? Basically,

the Bank of England is considering to raise interest rates from 0.5%,

and it has been since 2009. The first European bank to do this since

2011. This is politically very unwelcome by George Osborne. The

smart money seemed to be on January, February, maybe March. Now

it might be ill If you are the Chancellor, you don't want it to

happen before the election. There are also savers as well. But they

have been quite well served under George Osborne. Interestingly, this

theme, and I think it will run, it has been picked up by Labour because

they are very worried that Ed Miliband's cost of living crisis

argument is falling away. Actually, if interest rates go up and

everybody's mortgages go up, people like me, very heavily mortgaged from

the heady days when you could borrow multiple times your salary on

interest only... Depends how much, even 1%, I am old enough to remember

15% interest rates. That is why it is likely to go up sooner, rather

than later, so they can keep it gradual. That is why the suggestion

is it could autumn. And the danger is, just as people are beginning to

feel more optimistic about the economy, wages are now catching up

with inflation, they are beginning to feel a bit like they have a bit

more money in their pockets, suddenly their mortgage payments go

up. Briefly, Russia and China striking a $400 billion deal the

gas. Russia looking to China and not Europe to flog its energy.

Absolutely. Diplomatic relations with the West, particularly the US

and to a degree with Western Europe, have gone into freefall and there is

no prospect of that calming down soon. President Putin is probably

more in his comfort zone with the Chinese than the West. He dabbled in

2000 for reasons that we could argue about at in the night but we have

not got time. `` ad nauseam. And there is self`interest for the

Russians to strike this particular deal but it has taken ten years to

negotiate. It is all about Ukraine, isn't it? Well, what it does for

Russia is it signals for Europe don't take my gas. I can do a deal

with Asia. An analyst is quoted saying it is strategically important

for Gazprom because it allows it to show Europe that it has other

options. In terms of the leverage that Europe has, the limited

leverage that Europe seems to have over Putin in terms of Ukraine, this

has been knocked down. On the day that Prince Charles is said to have

likened President Putin to Adolf Hitler. Thank you. You will be back

in an hour for more of the stories that Fleet Street is trying to flog

us. Stay with us on BBC News. Much more at the top of the hour but

first it is Sportsday. Hello and welcome to Sportsday with

me, Ore Oduba. Coming up tonight: England's under 17s show the seniors

how it's done, winning the European Championship title on penalties.

Hibs are a step closer to keeping their place in the Scottish

Premiership, beating Hamilton in the play`off final first