02/02/2016 The Papers


02/02/2016

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Australian appointment in English rugby. In the first of International

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is for England's cricketers in South Africa. That's in that's in

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Sportsday in 15 minutes. Here it is the -- here is the Papers.

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Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers

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With me are Emily Ashton, who is chief political correspondent

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at Buzzfeed, and Dan Bilefsky from the New York Times.

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We began with the odds of Britain's staying in the EU, Ladbrokes have

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slashed them today, saying it equates to a 71% chance that we will

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stay. The Mirror thinks it is a gamble. At this time of unease, when

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Europe is buffeted by migration crises, economic crises, I think

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there is a feeling that pragmatic writs might be more apt to maintain

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the status quo rather than doing something cataclysmic like leaving

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the EU -- Brits. It could prove to revolution at this point in time.

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How much will headlines like this in the Sun affect that decision? It is

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quite a front page, and it is not the only front page to go with the

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EU. We like that, the Express says you are joking. And honestly, dad 's

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Army in the news. But yes, the Sun has long campaigned for a kind of

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cut in immigration, which David Cameron a year or two ago said he

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was up for. And obviously he made this pledge, didn't he, to get net

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immigration down to the tens of thousands a year. It has stubbornly

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remained a lot higher than that now he believes that this deal will get

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immigration down. What it will do is actually limit benefits for EU

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migrants. Experts say that that will not cut migration at all. So this is

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the background. And this is in the great tradition of Sun covers, there

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have been other moments in Britain's relations with Europe, and

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the subliminal message of that, the arrows all pointing towards Britain

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is that we are under an invasion and we just had the former Polish

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Foreign Minister in here saying what would you do without us? What would

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you do without the Poles? The Poles are a bit like the Mexicans in the

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United States, without them, the entire service industry wouldn't

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exist in this country. What would happen to the service industry? What

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would happen to nurses? What would happen to drivers? What would happen

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to the people you see smiling at you every day when you go on your lunch

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break? How does this play, actually? Since we've got you, I know you have

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bigger fish to fry with Iowa and New Hampshire, but that this resonate

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with people in the United States? The issues Britain is pondering

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over? Again, people are slightly distracted by other things in the

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United States but it is fair to say that Washington would like Britain

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in the European Union. There is a perception that if Britain is in the

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EU, then the EU is a trans- Atlantic partner, at a time when there is

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migration are people, people want pragmatic writs in the European

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Union. There is a feeling that they are closer to the United States in

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terms of attitudes to free markets, geopolitics, the trans- Atlantic

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relationship -- Brits. So Obama and the United States would like written

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in the European Union. It is a common theme. We have heard this

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from the Swedes, the Danes, the Dutch, and if we weren't there then

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Europe would be the poorer for it. And you can actually see that

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although there are EU leaders nervous about what David Cameron

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wants, especially on migration, they all really want written to stay in.

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Britain is pretty crucial to the future of the European Union.

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Certainly campaigners have been bending over backwards to make sure

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that David Cameron stays in and what annoys the leave campaign is that

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they think David Cameron has wanted to stay from the very beginning. In

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public he says it is all about what we get from this deal. No one but

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him believe that. It is happening at a time when there is a simmering

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backlash against migration all across Europe. You have Denmark

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passing policies in order to keep migrants away, seizing their

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valuables. You have Finland introducing Draconian measures. What

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Cameron is doing resonate quite strongly in many European capitals,

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which is why I think the head of the European Council has come up with a

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proposal that he believes other member states will accept. You were

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saying a little earlier that... It is, you have to say it, a pale

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imitation of what was promised real four month ago. And that is really

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summed up by the front page of the Daily Mail. They are calling it the

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great Delusion. It is not a huge surprise, the Daily Mail front page,

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the deal does fall short of what David Cameron promised but his

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pledges on the EU have been watered down over the last couple of years.

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Let's talk about specifics here. We are talking about a four year ban on

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in work benefits and now we are talking about a graduated... We are

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talking about an emergency brake. And when he pulls the break, what

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are the details? Are there gaps in it? It is a long way short of what

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he was promising. And even if you go back to... That was in the

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manifesto, this four year benefits banned. We were talking about how he

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mentioned cuts to immigration altogether. Angela Merkel a couple

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of years ago put paid to that. He was also talking about adjusting the

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agricultural policy and he wanted treaty change this time last year,

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and obviously this isn't happening at all. I think what is in this

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compromised deal, if it becomes a deal, it doesn't really matter to

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the average Briton unless they suffer from insomnia and want to

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read the fine print. What matters is that the Prime Minister has decided

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to support the yes camp and made it very clear. I think that makes it a

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seminal moment. It is a key point, because actually if you didn't want

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to look through the fine print, best of luck. The legalese in there. How

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many times would you have to read it? Is there a danger that there is

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in the right kind of information for people to make an informed decision?

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And that is exactly what they are banking on. That is why they want an

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early referendum, to avoid too much scrutiny of this. It is quite

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cynical in the right kind of information for people to make an

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informed decision? And that is exactly what they are banking on.

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That is why they want an early referendum, to avoid too much

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scrutiny of this. It is quite cynical pretty early so people don't

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look too far into it. On the point is that the Tories know that...

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David Cameron knows that and if it changes will actually win over a lot

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of voters -- benefit changes. We were just saying to the former

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Polish Foreign Minister that benefits have little to do with it.

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The minimum wage here is far greater than the minimum wage in Poland.

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Referendums are often difficult to win, and if you look at the history

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of the European Union in this country in particular, when Britain

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voted no and the French voted by a very small margin to the European

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Constitution, the Irish voted no, and at a time when the economy is

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not particularly strong, you have a migration crisis, people are feeling

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insecure, they may raise the middle finger to the European Union is some

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sort of protest vote. Not to draw too wide an analogy but when you

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look at what is happening in the US election, people are feeling restive

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and rebelling against the establishment. One would argue that

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the climate for no vote has seldom been stronger. The summer months

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will be crucial. If you were a gambling man, you would have to look

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at the odds and think, well, is it worth defying the Prime Minister on

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Europe? Many ministers, especially those key ministers like Torres,

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Michael Gove, and the business Secretary, who are wondering whether

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the campaign for the out camp -- Boris. There are many Eurosceptic

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ministers and we know there are, but they haven't shown their hand apart

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from Crisp Grayling. -- Chris Grayling. And today, David Cameron

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was given a bit of a boost by Theresa May, who has said it is a

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deal worth looking at, all we have the basis of a deal, which is

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great. That is exactly what David Cameron needed. Go is probably not

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going to jump either but they know it is a losing side at this point --

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Gove. I don't know if you are plugged into this but it is no

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secret that the out camp would very much like a Michael Gove figure or a

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Boris figure to lead them on. Well, Boris Johnson over many years has

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been very charismatic. It doesn't surprise me at all. It seems to me

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that he might go behind the yes side but it seems the no side is somewhat

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divided and polarised and lacking a big figure to give it some momentum,

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whereas on the yes vote, you have the Prime Minister, you have

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captains of industry, it seems the winds are flying more towards the

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yes side. Is the Guardian says, Cameron wins Theresa May's backing

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over Europe. She is a known Eurosceptic. It is a great win for

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him. He will be thrilled with the statement which dropped late today,

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it is in a lot of the front pages and it really secures his hand.

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Especially among the Tory grassroots. Many of them are pro-

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Theresa May. She made a hardline speech to the conference about

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migration and they won't quite sure which way she would go. And that our

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political editor were saying a little earlier, there is this rather

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strange period now, isn't there, over the next two weeks where they

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sort of know the detail but they are not allowed to speak about it. The

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likes of risk Grayling, sitting on his hands. They are not allowed to

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come out and -- come out until the deal is actually done -- Chris

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Grayling. Let's just turn to the elections in Iowa. The dramatic day

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yesterday. The shock of the new normal jolts the US election. I

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think the Guardian is referring to this new politics in the US

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primaries where people cleave to either the far left, characters like

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Bernie Sanders, ageing hippies who rail against globalisation or people

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on the far right like Donald Trump or the winner, Ted Cruz, a very

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strong, young Conservative evangelical fire and brimstone

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Conservative. People are fed up with the establishment and these

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candidates are benefiting as a result. Just talk to me about Bernie

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Sanders. He is an interesting character. He is known as Democratic

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Socialist. I thought socialism in America was a word you didn't

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mention. It is, and that is what is interesting about Bernie Sanders. He

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is such a left-wing candidate, such a raging hippie that you don't

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expect to see someone like that in the US landscape. Here's something

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like Jeremy Corbyn, although he would be far right of Jeremy Corbyn,

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ironically, in a British context. By railing against globalisation,

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presenting Hillary Clinton as an establishment candidate, as an

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example of legacy and dynastic politics. He is resonating with

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young people. Young people like Bernie Sanders, young people also

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like Jeremy Corbyn. What is the appeal of these ageing lefties for

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the younger generation? We have a reporter campaigning for Bernie

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Sanders who voted for Jeremy Corbyn last summer. There is such a

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parallel there. What do you make of the Republican side of the race? We

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talk so much in Britain about Donald Trump, and he goes and losers! I

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know, only by a little bit, but... One should say that Iowa is a small

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state and although it is an interesting early snapshot, there

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are many states to go. For my point of view the surprise winner is Marco

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Rubio, became a strong third and showed that the Republican

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establishment can rally behind him. The funding establishment can rally

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behind him and if we end up with a Marco Rubio Hillary Clinton race,

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that would be very interesting. They have been trailing up until now, but

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have shown their viability. Trump has had a setback but is doing very

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well in the polls going ahead towards New Hampshire. There is a

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question whether this circus performer act will translate for the

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electorate. He appeals to angry working-class men and women, and he

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has tapped brilliantly into this kind of politics of anger at when

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that goes before the entire electorate, there is a question

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whether it people will see him as the next president of the United

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States. You have these big, sweeping freeways in the US. Do you have

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white lines on? Because The Times Says that in Britain it is the end

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of the road for white lines on highways. Really? Yes, markings are

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being erased from busy roads across the country in an attempt to slow

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motorists down. Apparently blank roads introduced this sense of

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uncertainty, so... We don't know where we are in the road. Motor

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astride a bit more cautiously. I went to Lebanon and Jordan recently,

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to look at the Syrian refugee crisis, and I noticed that they do

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have lanes, but people don't drive cautiously -- motorists drive a bit

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more cautiously. A simple pot of paint can save lives, in particular

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highly visible markings at the edge and centre of the road which can be

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seen at night are enormously cost-effective, so to get rid of

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them, surely there will be more deaths on the road? As a cyclist,

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this sounds quite frightening to me. We will pass on that one. Anxious

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and unhappy says the Express. They must be middle-aged. If you are aged

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between 14 and 59 you are struggling to cope with caring for elderly

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parents and raising a family -- 40 and 59. If we were on that game show

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where you had to name what is troubling you, mortgages and debt. I

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can see how we do hear these things in Parliament about women in

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particular who are trapped between caring for children and for elderly

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relatives at the same time. So I can see how that bracket is affected. No

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surprise, Dan, that those aged 65 to 74 are deemed to be the happiest,

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because they have big pensions. Big pensions, their children are out of

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the house, they can enjoy their retirements. So I guess that is

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understandable. There is a problem in this country with people older

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than that who are alone and suffering without much human

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contact. Yes, I guess it is just those who have the money who can

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afford to be happy. But anyway, those of us who are middle-aged will

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plod on. Thank you very much for joining us this evening.

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Coming up next, it is time for Sportsday.

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