04/02/2016 The Papers


04/02/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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since early this morning has died despite rescue efforts to save it.

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers

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With me are Benedicte Paviot, a correspondent from France 24

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and Hugh Muir, a columnist for The Guardian.

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The Syria crisis is the lead for the Guardian,

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it says that Russian airstrikes on civilians are pushing tens of

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thousands of people towards Turkey in what it calls a new exodus.

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The Times says that the campaign to leave the EU has

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surged to a record poll lead of nine points; it says voters have rejected

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The Metro thinks the Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is

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in the middle of a legal farce, as the Foreign Office rubbishes UN

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claims that he is being unlawfully detained.

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Child abuse allegations are the focus

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It says the former head of the army, Lord Bramall,

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was forced to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly

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The Independent accuses top city law firms

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It says bills of up to ?1100 an hour are denying

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The Financial Times leads with losses at Credit Suisse,

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it says shares in the bank have fallen to their lowest point

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The Mirror says that government cuts to social care mean that thousands

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of patients ready to be released from hospital are forced to stay

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there because they have nowhere to go.

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And the Express also leads with the European Union,

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the newspaper's online poll suggests 92% of people want to leave the EU.

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Let us begin. Let's go to the Times, EU campaign surges to record

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levels. This is very dramatic. It says that the out campaign after the

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first week as a 9-point lead. 56 to 44. There are many caveats. The

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first one is that 19% don't know, so there is a lot to play for there.

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The other thing that strikes one is you look at the number of people who

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say that they actually support the elements of the deal that David

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Cameron unveiled this week, and that is 62%, supporting the emergency

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brake on the number of migrants. So they seem to like bits of the deal

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but don't particularly like the sound of the package so far. Ther

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are some dark warnings, from Goldman Sachs and one or two others at

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investment banks, saying things could go tell a

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investment banks, saying things could go tell -- terribly wrong for

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the pound. Some are saying that the pound could lose a fifth of its

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value is the UK decides to come out of the EU. What is also interesting

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is that this is the first poll to be conducted after the terms of the

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draft EU renegotiation will make public, just on Tuesday. What is

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also interesting is that in this YouGov poll in this article,

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Rose, who is campaigning... The old Marks Spencer boss. That is true.

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He claimed that Britain would vote substantial margin, and it would be

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a huge win. He was immediately criticised,

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Nigel Farage, he said that he is prediction revealed massive

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complacency. We are beginning to get polls now, it seems to have shifted

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to more than out mood. Before we even though the date on which the

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referendum will take place, and we don't know if it will take place in

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June, because the February summit will be the crunch decision. Whether

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it other EU members even agree what is in it. Interesting thing about

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this poll is that it reminds us that there was a lead of this dimension a

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couple of years ago, so things have been going the in weight, and now it

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is going back towards out. I think there needs to be a general health

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warning on any poll, but I think we will see in every poll it will swing

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back and forth. I suspect that in will win, whether it is by a

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significant margin, as Stuart Rose says, we don't know. Put your money

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there, but don't go and see me if you lose! Apparently 92% wanted quit

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the EU. You have to read the fine print. It is an online poll of their

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own readers. It is an exclusive online poll, where 92% voted to

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leave the EU. The link that the Daily Express is making is to do

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with the asylum claims. The number of people claiming asylum in Britain

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rose by almost 50% last summer, has the EU failed to get to grips with

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the global migration crisis. I think one of the things that is very

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clearly happening, and where the remain in the EU campaign is not

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getting a lead on this, is the link between asylum claims and migration

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is becoming, certainly in the papers, a justification, as if the

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whole of the EU is about that. There is a huge difference between people

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who claim asylum and people who succeed in getting asylum. That is

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why it will be so volatile. All you need is a huge spike in migration,

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another migration crisis, another wave of migration at the wrong time,

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and David Cameron may think it is going quite well and then the whole

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thing could be knocked off course just buy one incident. That is why

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it will be very volatile. And we can see in the next story that a fresh

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exodus of people from Syria is expected. Let's go onto that. The

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amount of money that has been offered up to help refugees, but

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this story is about Aleppo. This shows why that money is needed, and

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why so much more is needed. At the same time as the meeting was taking

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place in London, there are reports of the effects of Russian airstrikes

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in Aleppo, driving tens of thousands of people towards the Turkish

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border. Turkey obviously can't cope with that, and what we see in other

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circumstances where countries have raised money to deal with refugees

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is that that money hasn't been forthcoming, so whether Turkey will

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get the help it needs to deal with refugees on that scale is very

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doubtful. It is an important corrector, because it shows why we

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need to have these talks. It also shows why the problem needs to be

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solved at source. We can raise billions of pounds but if people are

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going to be moving on this scale, then we can't possibly deal with

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that. We have seen pictures on the size of refugee camps, if you look

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at some of this it is awful what is happening. Aleppo is just one place.

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Thousands of people on the move, it seems incredible. That is right,

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there are real fears of another refugee exodus. 70,000 people are

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said to be on the move, I mean, this is being called a siege of

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starvation around Aleppo. I think what is interesting also that is in

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this article in the Guardian is this warning by the US Secretary of

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State. As all these pledges were coming in here in London at this

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conference, John Kerry was calling on the Syrian regime and its allies

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to hold the bombardment of opposition held areas, saying they "

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clearly signalled the intention to seek a military solution rather than

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enable a political one". It is absolutely essential. We have seen

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those Geneva UN talks fail. What I will be interested in is the speech

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by the UN Secretary General tomorrow morning in his final year, which is

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being hailed as a legacy speech, which is organised by Chatham House.

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It will be interesting to see that in this position some of these

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leaders are freer to say things in their final year. It is not about

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money only, as you were saying, but about helping to stop this

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bombardment. What it is looking like is that Russia is really wanting to

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help Syria on a military front, and not helping to look for a political

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solution or resolution. When you see the report in its entirety you will

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see how the UN will be crucial, because Turkey are angry at the UN,

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dealing they haven't had the sort of support they should have had. The

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Turkish government said that just as the UN subsequently felt it had to

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apologise for failure in Bosnia, it will have to go back to Turkey and

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apologise for its failure to deal with the Syrian situation. Let's

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move on to a different sort of angle altogether. The Financial Times, a

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story about dark ships' unexplained stops in terrorist havens. We are

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used to having tight security and airports, particularly with the

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terror threat, and really what the Financial Times has done is look at

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this from another angle. They are looking at the commercial waters,

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saying that the Mediterranean is unguarded and there are few ways of

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tracking ships, dark ships, they say. They are saying there are many

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movements of them. We don't know if they are people smugglers, drug

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ships, if bogus shipping logs are being used. It is painting a picture

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of a very lax security regime on the water. It is mainly because we just

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haven't really looked at that as being as big a threat as we have

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with our airports. Again it is a problem of resources. As Europe is

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really struggling to deal with the migration crisis, its biggest

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frontier is the sea. 70,000 kilometres, as in this excellent

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article on page eight of the FT by Sam Jones, and he actually breaks it

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down. We have always known about ships using flags of convenience,

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but they give some really... They flesh out the mounting concern for

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the lack of a comprehensive system. The fact that there was taunting of

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jihadists, dancing around Europe from Belgium and into France and

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other countries, there really is concerned. Also, lack of resources,

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because it is admitted by the maritime authorities that they

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cannot monitor every ship. When some ships switch off every identifying

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science and do a U-turn and rendezvous with other boats, this

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could easily be a terrorist risk. It is unlikely that anyone will be

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repaired to spend the sort of money it would take to have meaningful

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security on the sea, because we saw how quickly the spending was reduced

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on the patrols to find migrant boats. Pretty quickly the money ran

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out, the... It doesn't make sense to spend all that money, you have to

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take your shoes and belts off before you go through the airport, and

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70,000 kilometres of coastline, this makes no sense. We don't even know

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who is in the UK and who isn't, because they came through the

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borders yesterday back into the UK and had a chat with those on the

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French and the British side. It is really easy. Airports are doable,

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the coast is not, is it? In a sense, what they are saying is that

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it is an accident waiting to happen. The dog hasn't barked yet. What a

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perfect cue for our last story! This is the front page of the

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independent. There is a very large dog on it, and he is apparently

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yawning. How can you tell if a dog is yawning? Canine boredom epidemic.

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Have either a few got a dog? I love dogs, I wish I could. It is a wave

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of canine depression, a boredom epidemic, because the weather has

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been so dreadful that no one is taking their dogs out for walks. The

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dogs are going stir crazy, and the Independent has spoken to some

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experts and come up with some advice. Very briefly. Play games,

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hide the food and they can look for it, hide toys, stroke them behind

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the ears, stroke them on the chest. I'm glad we ended on that good

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story. Thank you both very much. Coming up next, Sportsday.

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