04/02/2016 The Papers


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since early this morning has died despite rescue efforts to save it.


Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers


With me are Benedicte Paviot, a correspondent from France 24


and Hugh Muir, a columnist for The Guardian.


The Syria crisis is the lead for the Guardian,


it says that Russian airstrikes on civilians are pushing tens of


thousands of people towards Turkey in what it calls a new exodus.


The Times says that the campaign to leave the EU has


surged to a record poll lead of nine points; it says voters have rejected


The Metro thinks the Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is


in the middle of a legal farce, as the Foreign Office rubbishes UN


claims that he is being unlawfully detained.


Child abuse allegations are the focus


It says the former head of the army, Lord Bramall,


was forced to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly


The Independent accuses top city law firms


It says bills of up to ?1100 an hour are denying


The Financial Times leads with losses at Credit Suisse,


it says shares in the bank have fallen to their lowest point


The Mirror says that government cuts to social care mean that thousands


of patients ready to be released from hospital are forced to stay


there because they have nowhere to go.


And the Express also leads with the European Union,


the newspaper's online poll suggests 92% of people want to leave the EU.


Let us begin. Let's go to the Times, EU campaign surges to record


levels. This is very dramatic. It says that the out campaign after the


first week as a 9-point lead. 56 to 44. There are many caveats. The


first one is that 19% don't know, so there is a lot to play for there.


The other thing that strikes one is you look at the number of people who


say that they actually support the elements of the deal that David


Cameron unveiled this week, and that is 62%, supporting the emergency


brake on the number of migrants. So they seem to like bits of the deal


but don't particularly like the sound of the package so far. Ther


are some dark warnings, from Goldman Sachs and one or two others at


investment banks, saying things could go tell a


investment banks, saying things could go tell -- terribly wrong for


the pound. Some are saying that the pound could lose a fifth of its


value is the UK decides to come out of the EU. What is also interesting


is that this is the first poll to be conducted after the terms of the


draft EU renegotiation will make public, just on Tuesday. What is


also interesting is that in this YouGov poll in this article,


Rose, who is campaigning... The old Marks Spencer boss. That is true.


He claimed that Britain would vote substantial margin, and it would be


a huge win. He was immediately criticised,


Nigel Farage, he said that he is prediction revealed massive


complacency. We are beginning to get polls now, it seems to have shifted


to more than out mood. Before we even though the date on which the


referendum will take place, and we don't know if it will take place in


June, because the February summit will be the crunch decision. Whether


it other EU members even agree what is in it. Interesting thing about


this poll is that it reminds us that there was a lead of this dimension a


couple of years ago, so things have been going the in weight, and now it


is going back towards out. I think there needs to be a general health


warning on any poll, but I think we will see in every poll it will swing


back and forth. I suspect that in will win, whether it is by a


significant margin, as Stuart Rose says, we don't know. Put your money


there, but don't go and see me if you lose! Apparently 92% wanted quit


the EU. You have to read the fine print. It is an online poll of their


own readers. It is an exclusive online poll, where 92% voted to


leave the EU. The link that the Daily Express is making is to do


with the asylum claims. The number of people claiming asylum in Britain


rose by almost 50% last summer, has the EU failed to get to grips with


the global migration crisis. I think one of the things that is very


clearly happening, and where the remain in the EU campaign is not


getting a lead on this, is the link between asylum claims and migration


is becoming, certainly in the papers, a justification, as if the


whole of the EU is about that. There is a huge difference between people


who claim asylum and people who succeed in getting asylum. That is


why it will be so volatile. All you need is a huge spike in migration,


another migration crisis, another wave of migration at the wrong time,


and David Cameron may think it is going quite well and then the whole


thing could be knocked off course just buy one incident. That is why


it will be very volatile. And we can see in the next story that a fresh


exodus of people from Syria is expected. Let's go onto that. The


amount of money that has been offered up to help refugees, but


this story is about Aleppo. This shows why that money is needed, and


why so much more is needed. At the same time as the meeting was taking


place in London, there are reports of the effects of Russian airstrikes


in Aleppo, driving tens of thousands of people towards the Turkish


border. Turkey obviously can't cope with that, and what we see in other


circumstances where countries have raised money to deal with refugees


is that that money hasn't been forthcoming, so whether Turkey will


get the help it needs to deal with refugees on that scale is very


doubtful. It is an important corrector, because it shows why we


need to have these talks. It also shows why the problem needs to be


solved at source. We can raise billions of pounds but if people are


going to be moving on this scale, then we can't possibly deal with


that. We have seen pictures on the size of refugee camps, if you look


at some of this it is awful what is happening. Aleppo is just one place.


Thousands of people on the move, it seems incredible. That is right,


there are real fears of another refugee exodus. 70,000 people are


said to be on the move, I mean, this is being called a siege of


starvation around Aleppo. I think what is interesting also that is in


this article in the Guardian is this warning by the US Secretary of


State. As all these pledges were coming in here in London at this


conference, John Kerry was calling on the Syrian regime and its allies


to hold the bombardment of opposition held areas, saying they "


clearly signalled the intention to seek a military solution rather than


enable a political one". It is absolutely essential. We have seen


those Geneva UN talks fail. What I will be interested in is the speech


by the UN Secretary General tomorrow morning in his final year, which is


being hailed as a legacy speech, which is organised by Chatham House.


It will be interesting to see that in this position some of these


leaders are freer to say things in their final year. It is not about


money only, as you were saying, but about helping to stop this


bombardment. What it is looking like is that Russia is really wanting to


help Syria on a military front, and not helping to look for a political


solution or resolution. When you see the report in its entirety you will


see how the UN will be crucial, because Turkey are angry at the UN,


dealing they haven't had the sort of support they should have had. The


Turkish government said that just as the UN subsequently felt it had to


apologise for failure in Bosnia, it will have to go back to Turkey and


apologise for its failure to deal with the Syrian situation. Let's


move on to a different sort of angle altogether. The Financial Times, a


story about dark ships' unexplained stops in terrorist havens. We are


used to having tight security and airports, particularly with the


terror threat, and really what the Financial Times has done is look at


this from another angle. They are looking at the commercial waters,


saying that the Mediterranean is unguarded and there are few ways of


tracking ships, dark ships, they say. They are saying there are many


movements of them. We don't know if they are people smugglers, drug


ships, if bogus shipping logs are being used. It is painting a picture


of a very lax security regime on the water. It is mainly because we just


haven't really looked at that as being as big a threat as we have


with our airports. Again it is a problem of resources. As Europe is


really struggling to deal with the migration crisis, its biggest


frontier is the sea. 70,000 kilometres, as in this excellent


article on page eight of the FT by Sam Jones, and he actually breaks it


down. We have always known about ships using flags of convenience,


but they give some really... They flesh out the mounting concern for


the lack of a comprehensive system. The fact that there was taunting of


jihadists, dancing around Europe from Belgium and into France and


other countries, there really is concerned. Also, lack of resources,


because it is admitted by the maritime authorities that they


cannot monitor every ship. When some ships switch off every identifying


science and do a U-turn and rendezvous with other boats, this


could easily be a terrorist risk. It is unlikely that anyone will be


repaired to spend the sort of money it would take to have meaningful


security on the sea, because we saw how quickly the spending was reduced


on the patrols to find migrant boats. Pretty quickly the money ran


out, the... It doesn't make sense to spend all that money, you have to


take your shoes and belts off before you go through the airport, and


70,000 kilometres of coastline, this makes no sense. We don't even know


who is in the UK and who isn't, because they came through the


borders yesterday back into the UK and had a chat with those on the


French and the British side. It is really easy. Airports are doable,


the coast is not, is it? In a sense, what they are saying is that


it is an accident waiting to happen. The dog hasn't barked yet. What a


perfect cue for our last story! This is the front page of the


independent. There is a very large dog on it, and he is apparently


yawning. How can you tell if a dog is yawning? Canine boredom epidemic.


Have either a few got a dog? I love dogs, I wish I could. It is a wave


of canine depression, a boredom epidemic, because the weather has


been so dreadful that no one is taking their dogs out for walks. The


dogs are going stir crazy, and the Independent has spoken to some


experts and come up with some advice. Very briefly. Play games,


hide the food and they can look for it, hide toys, stroke them behind


the ears, stroke them on the chest. I'm glad we ended on that good


story. Thank you both very much. Coming up next, Sportsday.


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