06/05/2016 The Papers


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be


With me are Joe Watts, Political Correspondent


for the Evening Standard and Lucy Fisher, who's


a Senior Political Correspondent at The Times.


Welcome to you both. Thank you for being here tonight. Whilst we wait


for the London mayoral result... The Scottish Daily Mail says


voters have told the SNP to abandon its independence drive,


as the Tories are returned Ruth Davidson,


the Scottish Conservative leader, is pictured on the front


of the Telegraph - it says she's tipped to play


a bigger role in British politics. Sadiq Khan is on the


front of the Times. It calls him Labour's most


powerful politician. The FT says the election


of the son of a Pakistani bus driver signals a broad acceptance by voters


of London's racial and religious diversity, months after terrorist


attacks in Brussels and Paris. The Guardian reports concerns


from Conservatives that Zac Goldsmith's mayoral campaign has


left a 'negative legacy' in London. And the Express says


the Government's benefits cap will be reduced to ?20,000


per family this autumn. So, let's begin with the front pages


of the stories we picked out. The i says there has been a seismic shift


in Scotland. The SNP loses a majority but wins a historic third


term. The Tories become the second biggest party after spirited defence


of the union. Lucy, it could have gone very differently in Scotland,


couldn't it? Absolutely, I think it has come as a surprise to most


people that the Conservatives have jumped into second place, causing


Labour to slump to third in their historic former heartlands. A really


serious story for Labour. But as you say, I think it is interesting the


SNP are still on top, third time in, although not managing a majority


this time. Labour's experience in Scotland tempered by what happened


in other parts of the country somewhat. But there is not going to


be a majority SNP, they are going to have to try and go through without


that. A sting in the tail for the SNP. They have won and is an


historic victory but it basically means they will have to do some


deals if they want to get what they want. That is not unusual for the


SNP, they are used to handling and doing a bit of wheeling and dealing.


They had to do that kind of thing before they had a majority in


Scotland. They will have to revert back to their old ways. They did it


quite successfully last time. The problem is this time, they want


something big. We all know the SNP wombat second Scottish independence


referendum. They are not far off of mint majority in Holyrood and a few


MPs might be willing to give them a couple more votes to get that


majority for a vote on independence, but the question is at what cost


will that come? The Scottish Daily Mail makes that point, a defiant


Ruth Davidson pours scorn on the idea of this new independence with


the roar of Middle Scotland. She had her work cut out, when you think


where the Conservatives were come the general election. Absolutely. In


one of the papers she likens it to resuscitate in a dead corpse, which


is a really lovely image. The problem is with resuscitating a dead


corpse, we'll note, any horror film knows, when it comes back to life it


does horrible things. There is a danger for the Conservative Party,


as Ruth Davidson goes forward, that she feels the need to define herself


as a Scottish Conservative different to the English Conservatives. That


could be a problem for David Cameron in London. Nonetheless, she has done


a very good job in some ways already by defining herself in that way for


stop we know apparently blocked George Osborne going to Scotland in


the campaign. She has done a big job, not afraid of getting in front


of the cameras. How well will she now lead the opposition against the


SNP? There is talk because of how well she has done that there might


be a bigger role for her within the Conservative Party. I think that is


eminently possible. The great thing about Ruth Davidson is she looks and


feels very different to many Westminster politicians, typically


in the Conservatives. She's female, Gary, quite wary and has a very


fresh image. She talks as a human rather than political speak. I think


that is... To put a different take on it, I think what you say is


fascinating. She could cause Cameron some problems because she is a


little more modern, a bit more progressive, but equally when there


is a threat from them more right wing of the party, the degree of


Europe, in actual fact she really shows the modernisers, the they win


votes in elections. She could end up bolstering him. The Daily Telegraph,


we have two versions of it. The Scottish version first. SNP has no


mandate for another referendum. Davidson throws down gauntlet to


First Minister after Tory surge cost her majority. How much will Nicola


Sturgeon feel put in her place by what has happened in the vote last


night? Well, she is certainly still going to talk a good talk on the


subject. I think Nicola Sturgeon is quite canny woman. I don't think she


necessarily believes in her heart of hearts that if there were a wind


referendum that the SNP would necessarily win it. Based on the


fact it is unclear if public opinion has changed now. Many Westminster


politicians say we have to win the second one, so let's wait and hold


it when we can win it. It is not clear they could necessarily win a


second referendum. I think if we look back to the last government


when we had the coalition, it sort of helped the Conservatives to have


to compromise with the Lib Dems. It could end up being helpful to Nicola


Sturgeon and the SNP to not have a majority, to kind of hold off from


holding that referendum. It was not that helpful to the Lib Dems. We


will see which other parties are willing to get into bed with the SNP


and how that might affect their votes. We're pretty sure the Tories


won't do that. Labour I don't think we'll be willing to do that, given


what has happened to them. There will be a lot of bitterness around.


Perhaps the greens. They have a handful of seats. They might be the


answer to the SNP's problems. The Greens tend to be pro-... Could be


pro the union rather than pro-independence? It will not really


help the SNP Test they will have to go step-by-step, vote by vote, that


is how they did it last time. They managed to carve out quite a


successful assembly session out of that. I think that if the weight


Nicola Sturgeon will play it again. People will be looking to see


exactly what they are prepared to give up. I have heard many analyses


of what has happened in Scotland, that if you are pro-independence you


still carried on voting for the SNP and if you are not, you voted this


time for the Conservatives because they seem to have made their case


more powerfully. That certainly seems to be a lot -- what a lot of


the pundits are saying that moment. I think a lot of people voted for


the SNP at first you are not necessarily going to back


independence. It is quite difficult to know at the moment, given we


haven't had any polls on independence. Comparing with the


votes from this particular election, to see exactly how that breaks down


on whether there are still people voting SNP might not necessarily


vote for independence. But dependent has been the driving force of this


election. The anti-independence voters really coalesced around the


Tories. We have a couple of pictures of Ruth Davidson in Scotland. At one


point she was quoting Carolann Duffy's poem Rapture. She tried to


make the point her heart was almost stumped. That is the picture they


have chosen for the Scottish version of the paper, grinning. There she is


looking very sassy. This is the version of the Telegraph that goes


out in the rest of the country. A woman who put Tories back on the map


of Scotland. She certainly looks different, doesn't she? That seems


to have appealed to the people I have been speaking to an Twitter is,


because she doesn't look like the archetypal Conservative MP. Yes, and


she is willing to dress up, here she is wearing a funny Stetson style


hat. She has a sense of humour. I think that is why people like her.


She has detoxified the brand. She has that slight thing Boris Johnson


has. She is not as much of a clown as Boris can be, but she's not of


putting herself in interesting photo shoots. There was one floating


around the news today of her riding on a cow. She doesn't mind setting


herself up there and people like that, they warm to it. Let's look at


another party. Turning our attention to Labour. Corbin not a credible


leader of the worst losses in 30 years. -- Jeremy Corbyn. But he


said, we survived. It was not exactly a ringing endorsement of


what they'd done but the feeling was that could have been worse. It is


interesting what happened with Labour today. I think it plays into


the idea that expectation management is all-important. Some of Labour's


worst internal critics were warning they were going to lose at least


100, maybe 150 200 council seats. In fact only losing a few councillors


here and that is, holding in South, some -- some councils, proving


Jeremy Corbyn can hold outpost in the south, gives a very mixed and


messy picture. He has not done well enough to tell his critics look, I


can do this, I can lead us to victory in 2020, but he hasn't done


badly enough for those critics to really wield the knife and enact the


coup they have been talking about. It takes a leap of imagination of


you are going to argue either side. For the Labour spinners who are


coming out and saying this is better than expected, you have to remember


this is from the baseline that Ed Miliband had that was quite high,


but then proceeded one of the worst election losses Labour has had at a


general election. So to come out and say, it is not as bad as it could be


is going to great on a lot of Labour supporters who want the party to be


winning. At the same time, those people who want to have their


fingers curled round the knife handle and ready to plunge it into


Jeremy Corbyn, they don't quite have the reason to do that yet. But he


surely, in the light of what has been happening in the last couple of


weeks of this campaign thinking they did manage to get through it


relatively unscathed. You think what was going on with the anti-Semitism


row, it only ended last week I think, when they launch the


independent inquiry that Shami Chakrabarti will be looking at. All


that will kick back in again. But I imagine it could have been, could


have had a worse impact on those results? Certainly I think so. When


we looked last night John McDonnell warning Ken Livingstone's


controversial comments linking Hitler and Zionism, he said this


will set us back as a party. There was a lot of nervousness last night


at the BBC and other broadcast studios before the results started


coming out. I think there is a sense today, a sigh of relief from the top


leadership team that it hasn't been wiped out some had predicted. We


thought we might be talking about the result of the London mayoral


election, but we were told a couple of hours ago it is more likely going


to be midnight when we get that result. There was some kind of


inaccuracies or discrepancies in a small number of votes, we were told.


The Times have stuck their neck out and have a picture of Sadiq Khan


with his wife, who it says has become Labour's most powerful


politician after winning the London mayoral election. It certainly looks


like he is heading that way. And again, despite aspersions that were


cast on people he'd associated with, which left a nasty taste some people


in the way the Conservatives campaigned. That is right. I think


there is a of reasons, if it turns out Sadiq Khan has won, that he did


win. He made a strategic decision quite early on to distance himself


from Jeremy Corbyn. Pretty much at every opportunity he could take he


distanced himself, and that paid off, particularly in the


anti-Semitism row that came late in the campaign. He also managed to


brush off those claims from Zac Goldsmith about the platform to with


people. That seemed to have a backlash effect the Zac. Most


importantly he came forward with a policy platform that really seemed


to match what voters wanted in London. People basically wanted a


break from the high cost of living. He had his first dibs for Londoners


for housing and that seemed to resonate with a lot of people. It


might was a clue as to the people he will have around him in his team.


That idea of breaking away from your party Central office, Steven Norris


talks about the need to do that. He said he pretty much took no notice


of Conservative Central office when he was running for the post of


mayor. But he has a big mandate, because of the way this election is


run for London mayor, if you win, you really do win. Absolutely. I


think it is a really big first that London has their first Muslim mayor


in Sadiq, if he has won tonight. The most powerful Muslim politician in


the whole of Europe, which I think it something to be celebrated. That


Britain is the first country, it is a great message for Muslims


throughout the world to see that. But you are right. Him being


distanced from Jeremy Corbyn and the Central Labour machine, it will be


an interesting dynamic. Some interesting criticism of Zac


Goldsmith by his sister. She said on Twitter that she didn't feel that


his campaign reflected the type of person that she knew him to be. She


said he is an eco-friendly, independent minded politician with


integrity. She also tweeted she was sending her congratulations to Sadiq


Khan, saying he was a great example to young Muslims. I wonder who


Jemima Khan was actually criticising, was her brother or the


conservative machine? Lucy and I were talking about this one. We were


just wondering what kind of relationship they have. If she


called him first to say that is what she would be tweeting, if he was


aware and sanctioned and what the dynamics behind that well. If Zac


didn't know was coming it was a kick in the teeth, and if he you have to


think he okayed it beforehand. Something interesting going on. Zac


Goldsmith's brother came in and tweeted some supportive things as


well. It still remains to be seen exactly what is going on beer and


the scenes in the Goldsmith family. It might have been the comment on


the way she felt her brother was forced to campaign? I wouldn't say


forced. I think he will have had a steering role and he can't renege


responsible at your map. But I think a lot of people are looking at the


firm that has been running this campaign, it is quite a bulldog -ish


firm. It will be interesting which Conservatives will be there, if that


Goldsmith is there tonight. I think you are right, this tweet by the


angling to suggest it was this Rottweiler like firm that likes to


go in for these strong messages that has perhaps looks at Zac and thought


he is the ecologist, nice guy Tory, not some sort of brash individual.


Lets look at a moment at Ukip, Nigel Farage and Ukip, The true election


winners it in the express. I just marked that with a big question,


Mark. After the general election when they were supposed to do


extremely well and then only took Clacton with Douglas Carswell, how


successful has it been for Ukip? It doesn't look like they have done


that well in London. I suppose the Welsh seats are a big game for them.


They have a decent showing there on the Welsh Assembly. I think they won


quite a few seats around the country as well. I think of the top of my


head around 20 council seats around the place. They have made some


games, but whether they can actually turn that into anything more


useful... And they had a really high watermark of their vote share for


the general election. The question is, what vote showed they have


across the country and has risen or fallen? For a small party, the fact


they have made those games, they will be pleased? Absolutely. I think


the fact they have been geographically focused in Wales, it


is useful to have a stronghold summer, a place from which to grow.


They will be hoping if they do win an the 23rd they will have a SNP


like effect. It is worth it just to see Neil Hamilton back in politics.


Is it? Him and Christine, we have missed them. Yes, up in the North in


Cheshire they had acetyl stop the Daily Telegraph finally. No sooner


are these elections over there and we are back on the referendum trail.


Michael Gove will make Britain safe after Brexit. Michael Gove talking


about the need to strengthen our borders and national security laws.


A lot of people saying, Lucy, we can already have a great deal of control


over this inside the EU. Yes, people do. It is one of those issues,


security, where there are a lot of claims and counterclaims and it is


not clear if the UK safer in the EU, where we have agreements on


intelligence and data sharing the outside and have a tougher border


policy, if that were even possible to negotiate. I think it is an


interesting topic for Michael Gove to go on, but it certainly points to


immigration, the idea that we make our borders tougher, deport foreign


criminals without interference from Brussels courts. He knows his


constituency when he brings up this subject. That is right. It does seem


to be pushing towards the immigration issue. If anything, I


think the smartest strategist will see that as an area where they can


make some hay. They know they are not really going to convince people


or invigorate people with abstract arguments about sovereignty. They


need to talk about something that people on the street are thinking


about as well. The NHS is possibly another thing they could talk about,


but immigration certainly. Don't forget, all the front pages


are online on the BBC News website where you can read a detailed review


of the papers. It's all there for you -


7 days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers, and you can see us there too -


with each night's edition of The Papers being posted


on the page shortly after we've Thank you to both of you. I hope you


will come back again and see us on. More on the elections at 11 o'clock.


We will hopefully speak to Ben Brown at City Hall as we wait for the


London mayoral election. But first, the weather.


Hello. The weather pattern at the moment is favouring England and


Wales with the highest temperatures.


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