05/05/2016 The Papers

Green party thinking that the SNP did not necessarily need their vote.

Sarah Smith, thank you, will be coming back to different camps to

find out how they are getting on, thank you. Rusher will be coming to

different counts to find out how they are getting on, thank you.

Welcome to our look at what the papers will be saying tomorrow, with

me Iain Beryl and Martin Bentham, the home affairs editor for the

Evening Standard. And we will speak to James Miller, Westminster

correspondent for the Sunday Post, he joins us from Edinburgh. Good

evening. Thank you for joining us. Normally we would look at the front

pages but tonight we will go straight in with some of those

discussions. Let's start this evening with the Guardian. The story

that the doctors, it would seem, are split over the return to the peace

talks we have mentioned. Martin. This is the significance story of

the day in the health field, that the offer of a five-day balls that

was put to Department of Health which initially seemed that it was

going to be rejected -- a five-day pause, it looks like it may be

accepted with a condition, the BM a committee will have to meet on

Saturday to decide whether to go ahead with the talks. The Guardian

suggests that they are split about whether to do this. The particular

sticking point is this one that the government insists on, Saturday

should be a normal working day, and they should not get premium pay.

They insist that to be part of these discussions that happen as an

attempt to break the deadlock. The junior doctors are apparently,

according to this story, split as to whether to go with that or not. It

would appear earlier that there was perhaps talk that Jeremy Hunt had

changed his mind. He is spinning it well, saying this is an attempt to

resolve the problem and if they do this which has been at the centre of

some of the controversy, that he has suspended the whole imposition of

the contract. He is renowned as a very tough negotiator, one of the

toughest in government, probably. This is at least a chance to resolve

this strike. The BMA has done very well to keep support going with the

public. I was quite surprised by the recent poll showing support for it

from the public given that it is a pay dispute dressed as a health

issue. James, what are you hearing about the support of a junior

doctors, it seems it is remaining steady. Yes although this is cute by

Jeremy Hunt. And but like climb-down... It would appear,

James, that we have lost it. That is a shame. It is interesting that the

support for either side just doesn't seem to have moved much of the last

few weeks. It doesn't. There has been some suggestion this might

change of the doctors went on an all out strike although they did have

that two-day strike which hasn't yet affected their support. Maybe they

are conscious of the fact that if they went to the nuclear option of

an all out strike that things might change especially if there was some

terrible disaster that could be blamed on the consequences of not

having full cover and so on. So on one level they might be quite keen,

on another there's lots of determination to surrender over what

they see as the imposition of unsafe, I agree to an extent it

seems to be about pay to a large extent, in particular, I don't think

the government will back down unless the Saturday working issue is

addressed. This is not the issue they want to fight on. But the

problem for the government, the last thing they want is to be embroiled

in a major long-running dispute about health. Quite a few

concessions and I think there are quite a few more that the doctors

want. I suspect the government might give ground on some of them although

I don't think they will give ground on this key point. Let me bring back

James now we've got him back. We lost you after just a couple of

words. Has the Health Secretary been taking an interesting angle on this?

Yes, he has insisted that the junior doctors agreed to discuss Saturday

working. The junior doctors, which we haven't mentioned yet, talking

about this government equality assessment which says the new

contract will disadvantage women, especially mothers and single

parents. You can't impose a contract which the government 's own

assessment says is not fair to women so there is this other issue

although support for doctors is strong at the moment, if they refuse

to come to the table for any reason that support might waive a bit. They

will be a meeting on Saturday which will mark that. Let's stay with the

Guardian. It has a story, Assad is being accused of the air strike we

heard about this evening on the Syrian refugee camp. Some of the

pictures, some have not been verified, yet pretty shocking. They

have been horrific, the pictures of the burning tents, what has happened

is not clear, it can only be a Russian or Assyrian air strike. It's

a refugee camp, clearly there can be no military justification for that

type of action. Unfortunately, there have been a few promising signs,

with the ceasefire that has taken place in much of Syria that this

kind of incident is just a reminder of how big that conflict is. Even

after five years of conflict which has disrupted after people in the

country 4 million people have left and we are still getting new

horrific twists which are shocking. We've had five or six hospitals or

clinics attacked last week in Aleppo which makes it clear that Assad and

his Russian allies are determined to do anything to win even if that

means obliterating the last few doctors and people trying to treat

patients. To bomb the camp is one more outrage. Which is the depths to

which the regime is going to pulverise the opposition and win at

any cost. Briefly, James, other papers in Scotland covering much of

this, do they claim Assad is behind the rates? I would love to reply but

I haven't seen any of the Scottish papers yet! They must be saving

themselves for tomorrow. There's a big story here that will dominate

the papers indeed. Now we can go live to Cardiff. Our correspondent

James Williams is at the count. It's already started, I am assuming? Yes,

absolutely and has, and we are expecting a very different night in

Wales to what our friends in Scotland expect. We shared a lot

with our Celtic cousins although not modern politics because Wales is

still very much Labour country, Labour has been the biggest part in

the assembly since devolution, in 1999, they formed the government

every time, they've got a 17 year and interrupted record on running

the NHS, -- non-interrupted record, and running the economy and because

of that record the expect a relatively difficult night night.

They currently have 30 of the 60 seats in the SEnedd. If you go back

further than knives could be out for the world leader Carwyn Jones. So

which of the opposition parties will benefit most from the Labour losses?

They could increase the number of seats they have in the Senedd in

every election but will they suffer from internal EU referendum strife

or could they built on the momentum they built up during the general

election last year when they still some seats from Labour in the gala

-- when they sneaked some seats from Labour in some areas? Those seats

could turn blue tonight. Other seats to watch as Cardiff North, the Vale

of Glamorgan, and Wrexham, in north-east Wales. As for Plaid

Cymru, they can only look enviously at their sister party, the SNP in

Scotland because the Nationalists in Wales are currently in third place

and according to the polls and discussions are fired tonight with

party officials, their best bet is potentially taking second place just

ahead of the Tories. They've called themselves the government in waiting

throughout the campaign but that seems fanciful at the present time.

Big battles for them, their leader, Leanne Wood, taking on a big Welsh

Labour beast, Cabinet Minister Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda. Can

she make in droves into the Labour strongholds? And learn the which has

been seesawing back between Plaid Cymru and Labour -- levy. As for the

Lib Dems, it's all about survival, how many of their five members will

be returned? Another story is the presence of the Ukip party for the

first time in the Senedd. A dash of purple to the political palate. They

are expecting at least five regional seats, potentially up to seven. We

expect the hang assembly with Labour the biggest party and Willie have

enough seats to go it alone will have to form a coalition? There's

been one parliamentary by-election in Wales today for the Ogmore seat

which is returned a Labour MP in every single election since 1918 and

we're not expecting that to change tonight. James Williams, in Cardiff,

thank you. Back to the papers reveal. The Financial Times. An

interesting story, Ian, it says that there are these terrible wildfires

in Canada, they could increase petrol prices and they are already.

The pictures have been very dramatic. We've seen astonishing

pictures of the whole city forced to evacuate, 25,000 people airlifted

out and they say it is so severe that it will put up oil prices which

says something. Oil prices have been creeping up. This would suggest that

because of this this could have a significant effect. It could be so.

Is suspected to be relatively marginal in the big scheme of

things. The story, I suppose ultimately is the human disaster.

All those people having to move and not being able to get back to their

homes on the fire is raging to this extent. A big test for the new Prime

Minister. His first big test domestically. Will come back to

James in a moment. The other main Financial Times story says most EU

citizens in the UK would not meet work visa rules. This has been done

by Oxford University, this research. But the main thrust of the argument,

they are tackling certain sectors. They have done their own study. This

is a very reputable body, says essentially that three out of four

of the people working here would not meet the visa requirements for

non-EU workers if Britain left the European Union. However, it's a bit

of a scare story. Because it implies -- implies that it will come

straight home, it makes it clear that people here will be able to

carry on working and there will be a new negotiated settlement which

would allow for some toing and froing. It's interesting and a

little quirky but I don't think it is the best story they've ever had

on this! Martin? I agree. The people who are here will probably be able

to stay legally even if the country wants to remove them. In a Brexit

scenario I don't think there will be a great desire to object all non-EU

citizens, it's a bit fanciful. And all the British coming back from

Spain! And of course we can set our own Visa regime and adapted so if we

want people here, and if we want to recruit more people to fill those

low skilled jobs, we can. James, European migration and the

referendum coming up, on people's minds today during the voting. It's

quite a story. The key is that we don't know what the rules would be

if Britain left the EU. It is not likely that we would suddenly throw

out all these people! The nature of the work force is that we will

constantly need more people to replace them. And there's no clarity

about the way that would work. This is the migration observatory. These

are not the usual suspects. Not anti-EU crackpots, very respectable

organisation, there is more to this than the others are suggesting. Will

agree to disagree. Let's go to Newcastle. We have our

correspondent, Richard Moss, at the count. Newcastle might be one of the

first to declare. Yes, they are in a race with Sunderland. A rivalry

between these two cities and football and whether they can count

the votes quickly enough. No real threat to Labour control, yet in a

way the north-east symbolises Jeremy Corbyn's big problem as leader

because there's nothing left to gain. Take South Tyneside. Labour

hold 52 of the 54 seats in the council, not much left for them to

win, they to be shot at, challenges for the parties, the Lib Dems used

to run the council, there be looking to stop the haemorrhaging of seats

in the region in the last couple of years, the damage done by the

coalition is, for the Tories they've got ambitions in Carlisle to remove

the Labour control of the council. And here they have limited

ambitions, they want to win a seat. They haven't had a seat on Newcastle

City Council for 20 years. They are desperate to get one back. The Ukip

target is Hartlepool because they believe they can get good results

there. They've got two or three targeted seats. There's not much to

gain full Labour and there's plenty to lose. Thank you, we will wait to

teach as the first count comes in. Thank you for that. Sadly that is it

for The Papers. We'll be back at 11th and EPM. Thanks to Ian and

Martin and to James in Edinburgh. Coming about it 11 o'clock we'll

have more about the elections as the counting gets under way. First, the

weather with Nick Miller. The much advertised warm at this

under way as temperatures in