05/05/2016 The Papers


05/05/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Green party thinking that the SNP did not necessarily need their vote.

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Sarah Smith, thank you, will be coming back to different camps to

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find out how they are getting on, thank you. Rusher will be coming to

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different counts to find out how they are getting on, thank you.

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Welcome to our look at what the papers will be saying tomorrow, with

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me Iain Beryl and Martin Bentham, the home affairs editor for the

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Evening Standard. And we will speak to James Miller, Westminster

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correspondent for the Sunday Post, he joins us from Edinburgh. Good

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evening. Thank you for joining us. Normally we would look at the front

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pages but tonight we will go straight in with some of those

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discussions. Let's start this evening with the Guardian. The story

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that the doctors, it would seem, are split over the return to the peace

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talks we have mentioned. Martin. This is the significance story of

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the day in the health field, that the offer of a five-day balls that

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was put to Department of Health which initially seemed that it was

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going to be rejected -- a five-day pause, it looks like it may be

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accepted with a condition, the BM a committee will have to meet on

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Saturday to decide whether to go ahead with the talks. The Guardian

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suggests that they are split about whether to do this. The particular

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sticking point is this one that the government insists on, Saturday

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should be a normal working day, and they should not get premium pay.

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They insist that to be part of these discussions that happen as an

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attempt to break the deadlock. The junior doctors are apparently,

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according to this story, split as to whether to go with that or not. It

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would appear earlier that there was perhaps talk that Jeremy Hunt had

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changed his mind. He is spinning it well, saying this is an attempt to

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resolve the problem and if they do this which has been at the centre of

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some of the controversy, that he has suspended the whole imposition of

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the contract. He is renowned as a very tough negotiator, one of the

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toughest in government, probably. This is at least a chance to resolve

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this strike. The BMA has done very well to keep support going with the

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public. I was quite surprised by the recent poll showing support for it

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from the public given that it is a pay dispute dressed as a health

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issue. James, what are you hearing about the support of a junior

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doctors, it seems it is remaining steady. Yes although this is cute by

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Jeremy Hunt. And but like climb-down... It would appear,

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James, that we have lost it. That is a shame. It is interesting that the

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support for either side just doesn't seem to have moved much of the last

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few weeks. It doesn't. There has been some suggestion this might

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change of the doctors went on an all out strike although they did have

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that two-day strike which hasn't yet affected their support. Maybe they

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are conscious of the fact that if they went to the nuclear option of

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an all out strike that things might change especially if there was some

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terrible disaster that could be blamed on the consequences of not

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having full cover and so on. So on one level they might be quite keen,

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on another there's lots of determination to surrender over what

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they see as the imposition of unsafe, I agree to an extent it

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seems to be about pay to a large extent, in particular, I don't think

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the government will back down unless the Saturday working issue is

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addressed. This is not the issue they want to fight on. But the

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problem for the government, the last thing they want is to be embroiled

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in a major long-running dispute about health. Quite a few

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concessions and I think there are quite a few more that the doctors

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want. I suspect the government might give ground on some of them although

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I don't think they will give ground on this key point. Let me bring back

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James now we've got him back. We lost you after just a couple of

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words. Has the Health Secretary been taking an interesting angle on this?

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Yes, he has insisted that the junior doctors agreed to discuss Saturday

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working. The junior doctors, which we haven't mentioned yet, talking

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about this government equality assessment which says the new

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contract will disadvantage women, especially mothers and single

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parents. You can't impose a contract which the government 's own

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assessment says is not fair to women so there is this other issue

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although support for doctors is strong at the moment, if they refuse

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to come to the table for any reason that support might waive a bit. They

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will be a meeting on Saturday which will mark that. Let's stay with the

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Guardian. It has a story, Assad is being accused of the air strike we

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heard about this evening on the Syrian refugee camp. Some of the

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pictures, some have not been verified, yet pretty shocking. They

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have been horrific, the pictures of the burning tents, what has happened

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is not clear, it can only be a Russian or Assyrian air strike. It's

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a refugee camp, clearly there can be no military justification for that

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type of action. Unfortunately, there have been a few promising signs,

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with the ceasefire that has taken place in much of Syria that this

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kind of incident is just a reminder of how big that conflict is. Even

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after five years of conflict which has disrupted after people in the

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country 4 million people have left and we are still getting new

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horrific twists which are shocking. We've had five or six hospitals or

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clinics attacked last week in Aleppo which makes it clear that Assad and

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his Russian allies are determined to do anything to win even if that

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means obliterating the last few doctors and people trying to treat

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patients. To bomb the camp is one more outrage. Which is the depths to

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which the regime is going to pulverise the opposition and win at

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any cost. Briefly, James, other papers in Scotland covering much of

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this, do they claim Assad is behind the rates? I would love to reply but

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I haven't seen any of the Scottish papers yet! They must be saving

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themselves for tomorrow. There's a big story here that will dominate

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the papers indeed. Now we can go live to Cardiff. Our correspondent

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James Williams is at the count. It's already started, I am assuming? Yes,

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absolutely and has, and we are expecting a very different night in

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Wales to what our friends in Scotland expect. We shared a lot

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with our Celtic cousins although not modern politics because Wales is

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still very much Labour country, Labour has been the biggest part in

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the assembly since devolution, in 1999, they formed the government

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every time, they've got a 17 year and interrupted record on running

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the NHS, -- non-interrupted record, and running the economy and because

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of that record the expect a relatively difficult night night.

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They currently have 30 of the 60 seats in the SEnedd. If you go back

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further than knives could be out for the world leader Carwyn Jones. So

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which of the opposition parties will benefit most from the Labour losses?

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They could increase the number of seats they have in the Senedd in

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every election but will they suffer from internal EU referendum strife

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or could they built on the momentum they built up during the general

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election last year when they still some seats from Labour in the gala

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-- when they sneaked some seats from Labour in some areas? Those seats

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could turn blue tonight. Other seats to watch as Cardiff North, the Vale

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of Glamorgan, and Wrexham, in north-east Wales. As for Plaid

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Cymru, they can only look enviously at their sister party, the SNP in

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Scotland because the Nationalists in Wales are currently in third place

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and according to the polls and discussions are fired tonight with

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party officials, their best bet is potentially taking second place just

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ahead of the Tories. They've called themselves the government in waiting

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throughout the campaign but that seems fanciful at the present time.

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Big battles for them, their leader, Leanne Wood, taking on a big Welsh

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Labour beast, Cabinet Minister Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda. Can

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she make in droves into the Labour strongholds? And learn the which has

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been seesawing back between Plaid Cymru and Labour -- levy. As for the

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Lib Dems, it's all about survival, how many of their five members will

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be returned? Another story is the presence of the Ukip party for the

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first time in the Senedd. A dash of purple to the political palate. They

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are expecting at least five regional seats, potentially up to seven. We

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expect the hang assembly with Labour the biggest party and Willie have

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enough seats to go it alone will have to form a coalition? There's

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been one parliamentary by-election in Wales today for the Ogmore seat

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which is returned a Labour MP in every single election since 1918 and

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we're not expecting that to change tonight. James Williams, in Cardiff,

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thank you. Back to the papers reveal. The Financial Times. An

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interesting story, Ian, it says that there are these terrible wildfires

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in Canada, they could increase petrol prices and they are already.

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The pictures have been very dramatic. We've seen astonishing

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pictures of the whole city forced to evacuate, 25,000 people airlifted

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out and they say it is so severe that it will put up oil prices which

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says something. Oil prices have been creeping up. This would suggest that

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because of this this could have a significant effect. It could be so.

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Is suspected to be relatively marginal in the big scheme of

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things. The story, I suppose ultimately is the human disaster.

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All those people having to move and not being able to get back to their

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homes on the fire is raging to this extent. A big test for the new Prime

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Minister. His first big test domestically. Will come back to

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James in a moment. The other main Financial Times story says most EU

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citizens in the UK would not meet work visa rules. This has been done

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by Oxford University, this research. But the main thrust of the argument,

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they are tackling certain sectors. They have done their own study. This

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is a very reputable body, says essentially that three out of four

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of the people working here would not meet the visa requirements for

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non-EU workers if Britain left the European Union. However, it's a bit

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of a scare story. Because it implies -- implies that it will come

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straight home, it makes it clear that people here will be able to

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carry on working and there will be a new negotiated settlement which

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would allow for some toing and froing. It's interesting and a

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little quirky but I don't think it is the best story they've ever had

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on this! Martin? I agree. The people who are here will probably be able

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to stay legally even if the country wants to remove them. In a Brexit

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scenario I don't think there will be a great desire to object all non-EU

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citizens, it's a bit fanciful. And all the British coming back from

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Spain! And of course we can set our own Visa regime and adapted so if we

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want people here, and if we want to recruit more people to fill those

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low skilled jobs, we can. James, European migration and the

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referendum coming up, on people's minds today during the voting. It's

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quite a story. The key is that we don't know what the rules would be

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if Britain left the EU. It is not likely that we would suddenly throw

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out all these people! The nature of the work force is that we will

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constantly need more people to replace them. And there's no clarity

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about the way that would work. This is the migration observatory. These

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are not the usual suspects. Not anti-EU crackpots, very respectable

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organisation, there is more to this than the others are suggesting. Will

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agree to disagree. Let's go to Newcastle. We have our

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correspondent, Richard Moss, at the count. Newcastle might be one of the

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first to declare. Yes, they are in a race with Sunderland. A rivalry

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between these two cities and football and whether they can count

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the votes quickly enough. No real threat to Labour control, yet in a

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way the north-east symbolises Jeremy Corbyn's big problem as leader

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because there's nothing left to gain. Take South Tyneside. Labour

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hold 52 of the 54 seats in the council, not much left for them to

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win, they to be shot at, challenges for the parties, the Lib Dems used

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to run the council, there be looking to stop the haemorrhaging of seats

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in the region in the last couple of years, the damage done by the

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coalition is, for the Tories they've got ambitions in Carlisle to remove

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the Labour control of the council. And here they have limited

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ambitions, they want to win a seat. They haven't had a seat on Newcastle

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City Council for 20 years. They are desperate to get one back. The Ukip

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target is Hartlepool because they believe they can get good results

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there. They've got two or three targeted seats. There's not much to

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gain full Labour and there's plenty to lose. Thank you, we will wait to

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teach as the first count comes in. Thank you for that. Sadly that is it

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for The Papers. We'll be back at 11th and EPM. Thanks to Ian and

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Martin and to James in Edinburgh. Coming about it 11 o'clock we'll

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have more about the elections as the counting gets under way. First, the

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weather with Nick Miller. The much advertised warm at this

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under way as temperatures in

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