09/06/2016 The Papers


09/06/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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With me are Jo Phillips, the political commentator,

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and Nigel Nelson, the political editor of

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The Guardian leads with a stem cell therapy which apparently halts

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and reverses some of the symptoms of people worst affected

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That story is also in the Daily Telegraph.

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And Security Minister John Hayes has written in the paper arguing Britain

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is better placed to fight terrorism outside the European Union.

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The Daily Express says it has seen figures migrants.

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The Metro leads with security measures for the Euro 2016

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tournament, saying bars in France have been banned from showing

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matches on outdoor big screens over terror fears.

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The Mail's front page has a picture of Sir Philip Green and the crisis

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It says some Conservative backbench MPs are pressing for him to lose his

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title. The FT shows a picture

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of Bernie Sanders with President Obama at the White House,

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promising to work with Hillary Clinton to defeat

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Donald Trump in the US election. Let's begin with the Metro. Yes,

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this is the story you alluded to just now, that venues have been

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banned from showing the match as an outdoor big screens because of fears

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of terror attacks, the argument being the supporters will be safe in

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designated fan zones where police can protect them. But England fans

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said they would feel safer in small groups. But how can you... Are you

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safer on the S side of an airport, where there is huge security and

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people are waiting on longer, or on the other side? It's a very

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difficult thing for the security forces and intelligence services. In

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the wake of the attacks in France, they will be terribly worried about

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the possibility. It's a nightmare to do this. Weather it makes any

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difference, only time will tell, but it will have a huge impact on the

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sense and feeling of the football tournament itself. A huge challenge

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for the authorities, Nigel. You can't blame the French for being

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twitchy, considering everything that has happened there. I agree with Joe

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here. Whether it will make a difference, who knows, but the idea

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of being in small groups and a variety of different bars,

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presumably, statistically, you are more likely to be OK for a bomb goes

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off in a big group. But really, in something like this, the only thing

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you can do is go there, enjoy yourself, keep note of all the

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authorities tell you not worry too much about it because there's

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nothing you can do. The big screen outside, is traditional of these

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tournaments. It is, but the impact of that is it is insane to you is

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the influence that terrorism has, which has made people change the way

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they have behaved. What we were saying about trying to carry on as

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normal, we have not. We will talk about the EU. We will do it twice,

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once fired the Guardian, but we will start with the Telegraph. This

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quotes John Hayes, D Security minister, who is in favour of

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leaving. He has done an interview with the Telegraph. He seems to be

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saying, its total nonsense! The argument that everything I have

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heard from Whitehall security sources saying that it really

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doesn't make any difference, this should not be an argument. The way

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that intelligence works is you operate with like-minded

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intelligence services to our allies, personal relationships, it depends

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on where the crossovers are and the relationships you have built up.

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What he is saying is we are better off dealing with United States,

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Canada, Australia, New Zealand. His critique is that the EU he says is

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guilty of grand scheming and trying to appropriate power instead of

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doing the job in hand. What you are talking about that is what is

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happening at the political level. It's rather different from the guys

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who operate on the ground. The intelligence services operate

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outside the umbrella of the EU in the same way they operate here. John

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Hayes, and what he said? I hate to say I agree with Nigel but it sounds

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like an awful lot of twaddle to me. This is political posturing that

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looks desperate. He also says, David Cameron is marvellous, presumably

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trying to hedge his bets and keep some sort of political career,

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whatever the result of the referendum and says this referendum

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is not about his leadership or settling old scores or reducing big

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arguments to petty points. I don't know where he has been for the last

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few weeks because it is clearly about that. We have just talked

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about the security measures in France, which I can't think would be

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any different. Talking about political point scoring and be EU

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referendum debate, the Guardian has got three photographs of three of

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those taking part in the night's ITV debate. Three blondes. They are

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going down the Nicola Sturgeon line with the headline. Apparently, she

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led a concerted onslaught by the remaining campaign on Boris Johnson,

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and this hinges on the figure of the ?350 million a week that Boris

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Johnson has in the course of this debate stood by, that Britain sends

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that much money, even though it has been pretty much rubbished by quite

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a lot of people, including the independent statistics authority. It

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is not taking into account the returns the to us. He argues that we

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don't have control of that sum of money, that is where he comes from.

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But it is not a sum of money we actually sent over. It's more like

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100 or 150 million, which is considerably less. I think Boris...

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I did not see much of this, only the news clips, but Nicola Sturgeon is a

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formidable woman and formidable operator and Boris might be coming

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is lightly unstuck. Looking further down the eye Boris performing

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strongly on the issue of sovereignty. That that is right.

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Both campaigns have been utterly appalling. Everybody is dealing in

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absolutes and the voters don't and it would be so much better if David

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Cameron had said, on balance, we are better off staying in, but instead

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he says, an absolute disaster if we pull out. Same thing applies to the

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Brexit campaign. The campaign has been very bad. What they have

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narrowed it down to is that you have got the fear of immigration on one

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side if we stay in, you have got the fear of economic uncertainty of the

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pull-out, and those now at the campaign battle lines. I must say,

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it's extremely refreshing to see if you all female faces and certainly

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the interventions over the last 24 hours have actually brought things

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down a little bit to a reasonable conversation to be blabbing around

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the country. Five women, one man. We have the Financial Times. They are

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talking about the polls and polling process and how difficult this is

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proving to be, particularly in the light of what happened in Europe.

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This is a really interesting story because the pollsters were caught

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out or got it wrong, depending which way you choose to look at it, by

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getting it completely wrong on the election, the last general election.

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What's interesting about this is that because of the huge economic

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impact either way, whatever the decision is, lots of people like

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investment banks, hedge funds and investors, are trying to

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second-guess the result so they can make arrangements either to move

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money or reinvest or shift things around. The pollsters have got a lot

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riding on this because if they get it wrong, and those investors make

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the wrong decision, they will blame the pollsters. But what's really

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interesting in the course of this lengthy article is the difference

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between online polls and telephone poles. And on an online poll, you

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end up with usually more don't know, don't know what to say, so a much

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more neck and neck thing, whereas with a telephone pole, and to a

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certain extent it self selecting, an online poll, because you are putting

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your name forward, whereas with a telephone pole, someone can phone

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you up and they will try to push you to yes or no. The other problem with

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this is the sampling. In terms of who you choose to approach in the

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first place and how you make sure that is representative. If the

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pollsters are doing their job, they were weighted so it's

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representative. Which they try to do a year ago! One fascinating

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statistic here that the Financial Times mentions is that 56% of

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telephone polls gave Tories believed, which is what happened,

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only 10% of non-posted. The problem is that a telephone pole is very

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labour-intensive and will cost ?10,000. An online poll comes in at

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?1000. You can see why an awful lot of news organisations have been

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going for the online version until we discovered last year that they

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were not worth a lot. It is compounded by a problem here that

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with general elections, they have something to base it on but this

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time around, it is a long time ago since we had anything like it. This

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referendum, we had no idea. But at the moment, pollsters are saying, if

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you want to know our voting intention, use a telephone pole,

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expensive but at least you will grill it down a bit because you are

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talking to people and getting a proper reply. There is a brilliant

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comment from Professor John Curtis who says lots of things are hanging

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on this referendum, one of them is the future of the polling industry.

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Reputation lay... They can't get it wrong again. A quick word about

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Bernie Sanders who was edging towards... It is probably Hillary

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Clinton's will he end up endorsing Hillary Clinton? The answer is

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probably he will. It will probably depend on what job he gets when he

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does. But if he does, she has got more chance of beating Trump because

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he will bring with him the young people that he attracted and there

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are quite a lot of people who don't like Hillary Clinton. It's a

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peculiar image. That is further Hillary Clinton or for people to

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draw pictures of Donald Trump. Nigel, this cartoon on the front of

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the Telegraph is where we wish to end because it takes us back to

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Brexit and Euro 2016 neatly. They have managed to combine the two

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things together and he has got an England player saying, summing up

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every issue there, immigration, football and the whole referendum

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debate. He just gets it. He is so clever. Brilliant. Time is up. Thank

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you both very much indeed. That is it for the papers the night before

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we go, the Times coming while we have been talking and it leads with

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the stem cell story and shows a picture of the Chancellor and Ruth

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Davidson at a farm. They want the UK to stay in the EU. Don't forget, or

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the front pages are online, where you can read a detailed review on

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those papers. And you can see us there as well. So thanks again and

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goodbye.

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