09/06/2016 The Papers

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

With me are Jo Phillips, the political commentator,

and Nigel Nelson, the political editor of

The Guardian leads with a stem cell therapy which apparently halts

and reverses some of the symptoms of people worst affected

That story is also in the Daily Telegraph.

And Security Minister John Hayes has written in the paper arguing Britain

is better placed to fight terrorism outside the European Union.

The Daily Express says it has seen figures migrants.

The Metro leads with security measures for the Euro 2016

tournament, saying bars in France have been banned from showing

matches on outdoor big screens over terror fears.

The Mail's front page has a picture of Sir Philip Green and the crisis

It says some Conservative backbench MPs are pressing for him to lose his

title. The FT shows a picture

of Bernie Sanders with President Obama at the White House,

promising to work with Hillary Clinton to defeat

Donald Trump in the US election. Let's begin with the Metro. Yes,

this is the story you alluded to just now, that venues have been

banned from showing the match as an outdoor big screens because of fears

of terror attacks, the argument being the supporters will be safe in

designated fan zones where police can protect them. But England fans

said they would feel safer in small groups. But how can you... Are you

safer on the S side of an airport, where there is huge security and

people are waiting on longer, or on the other side? It's a very

difficult thing for the security forces and intelligence services. In

the wake of the attacks in France, they will be terribly worried about

the possibility. It's a nightmare to do this. Weather it makes any

difference, only time will tell, but it will have a huge impact on the

sense and feeling of the football tournament itself. A huge challenge

for the authorities, Nigel. You can't blame the French for being

twitchy, considering everything that has happened there. I agree with Joe

here. Whether it will make a difference, who knows, but the idea

of being in small groups and a variety of different bars,

presumably, statistically, you are more likely to be OK for a bomb goes

off in a big group. But really, in something like this, the only thing

you can do is go there, enjoy yourself, keep note of all the

authorities tell you not worry too much about it because there's

nothing you can do. The big screen outside, is traditional of these

tournaments. It is, but the impact of that is it is insane to you is

the influence that terrorism has, which has made people change the way

they have behaved. What we were saying about trying to carry on as

normal, we have not. We will talk about the EU. We will do it twice,

once fired the Guardian, but we will start with the Telegraph. This

quotes John Hayes, D Security minister, who is in favour of

leaving. He has done an interview with the Telegraph. He seems to be

saying, its total nonsense! The argument that everything I have

heard from Whitehall security sources saying that it really

doesn't make any difference, this should not be an argument. The way

that intelligence works is you operate with like-minded

intelligence services to our allies, personal relationships, it depends

on where the crossovers are and the relationships you have built up.

What he is saying is we are better off dealing with United States,

Canada, Australia, New Zealand. His critique is that the EU he says is

guilty of grand scheming and trying to appropriate power instead of

doing the job in hand. What you are talking about that is what is

happening at the political level. It's rather different from the guys

who operate on the ground. The intelligence services operate

outside the umbrella of the EU in the same way they operate here. John

Hayes, and what he said? I hate to say I agree with Nigel but it sounds

like an awful lot of twaddle to me. This is political posturing that

looks desperate. He also says, David Cameron is marvellous, presumably

trying to hedge his bets and keep some sort of political career,

whatever the result of the referendum and says this referendum

is not about his leadership or settling old scores or reducing big

arguments to petty points. I don't know where he has been for the last

few weeks because it is clearly about that. We have just talked

about the security measures in France, which I can't think would be

any different. Talking about political point scoring and be EU

referendum debate, the Guardian has got three photographs of three of

those taking part in the night's ITV debate. Three blondes. They are

going down the Nicola Sturgeon line with the headline. Apparently, she

led a concerted onslaught by the remaining campaign on Boris Johnson,

and this hinges on the figure of the ?350 million a week that Boris

Johnson has in the course of this debate stood by, that Britain sends

that much money, even though it has been pretty much rubbished by quite

a lot of people, including the independent statistics authority. It

is not taking into account the returns the to us. He argues that we

don't have control of that sum of money, that is where he comes from.

But it is not a sum of money we actually sent over. It's more like

100 or 150 million, which is considerably less. I think Boris...

I did not see much of this, only the news clips, but Nicola Sturgeon is a

formidable woman and formidable operator and Boris might be coming

is lightly unstuck. Looking further down the eye Boris performing

strongly on the issue of sovereignty. That that is right.

Both campaigns have been utterly appalling. Everybody is dealing in

absolutes and the voters don't and it would be so much better if David

Cameron had said, on balance, we are better off staying in, but instead

he says, an absolute disaster if we pull out. Same thing applies to the

Brexit campaign. The campaign has been very bad. What they have

narrowed it down to is that you have got the fear of immigration on one

side if we stay in, you have got the fear of economic uncertainty of the

pull-out, and those now at the campaign battle lines. I must say,

it's extremely refreshing to see if you all female faces and certainly

the interventions over the last 24 hours have actually brought things

down a little bit to a reasonable conversation to be blabbing around

the country. Five women, one man. We have the Financial Times. They are

talking about the polls and polling process and how difficult this is

proving to be, particularly in the light of what happened in Europe.

This is a really interesting story because the pollsters were caught

out or got it wrong, depending which way you choose to look at it, by

getting it completely wrong on the election, the last general election.

What's interesting about this is that because of the huge economic

impact either way, whatever the decision is, lots of people like

investment banks, hedge funds and investors, are trying to

second-guess the result so they can make arrangements either to move

money or reinvest or shift things around. The pollsters have got a lot

riding on this because if they get it wrong, and those investors make

the wrong decision, they will blame the pollsters. But what's really

interesting in the course of this lengthy article is the difference

between online polls and telephone poles. And on an online poll, you

end up with usually more don't know, don't know what to say, so a much

more neck and neck thing, whereas with a telephone pole, and to a

certain extent it self selecting, an online poll, because you are putting

your name forward, whereas with a telephone pole, someone can phone

you up and they will try to push you to yes or no. The other problem with

this is the sampling. In terms of who you choose to approach in the

first place and how you make sure that is representative. If the

pollsters are doing their job, they were weighted so it's

representative. Which they try to do a year ago! One fascinating

statistic here that the Financial Times mentions is that 56% of

telephone polls gave Tories believed, which is what happened,

only 10% of non-posted. The problem is that a telephone pole is very

labour-intensive and will cost ?10,000. An online poll comes in at

?1000. You can see why an awful lot of news organisations have been

going for the online version until we discovered last year that they

were not worth a lot. It is compounded by a problem here that

with general elections, they have something to base it on but this

time around, it is a long time ago since we had anything like it. This

referendum, we had no idea. But at the moment, pollsters are saying, if

you want to know our voting intention, use a telephone pole,

expensive but at least you will grill it down a bit because you are

talking to people and getting a proper reply. There is a brilliant

comment from Professor John Curtis who says lots of things are hanging

on this referendum, one of them is the future of the polling industry.

Reputation lay... They can't get it wrong again. A quick word about

Bernie Sanders who was edging towards... It is probably Hillary

Clinton's will he end up endorsing Hillary Clinton? The answer is

probably he will. It will probably depend on what job he gets when he

does. But if he does, she has got more chance of beating Trump because

he will bring with him the young people that he attracted and there

are quite a lot of people who don't like Hillary Clinton. It's a

peculiar image. That is further Hillary Clinton or for people to

draw pictures of Donald Trump. Nigel, this cartoon on the front of

the Telegraph is where we wish to end because it takes us back to

Brexit and Euro 2016 neatly. They have managed to combine the two

things together and he has got an England player saying, summing up

every issue there, immigration, football and the whole referendum

debate. He just gets it. He is so clever. Brilliant. Time is up. Thank

you both very much indeed. That is it for the papers the night before

we go, the Times coming while we have been talking and it leads with

the stem cell story and shows a picture of the Chancellor and Ruth

Davidson at a farm. They want the UK to stay in the EU. Don't forget, or

the front pages are online, where you can read a detailed review on

those papers. And you can see us there as well. So thanks again and

goodbye.