09/06/2016 The Papers


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be


With me are Jo Phillips, the political commentator,


and Nigel Nelson, the political editor of


The Guardian leads with a stem cell therapy which apparently halts


and reverses some of the symptoms of people worst affected


That story is also in the Daily Telegraph.


And Security Minister John Hayes has written in the paper arguing Britain


is better placed to fight terrorism outside the European Union.


The Daily Express says it has seen figures migrants.


The Metro leads with security measures for the Euro 2016


tournament, saying bars in France have been banned from showing


matches on outdoor big screens over terror fears.


The Mail's front page has a picture of Sir Philip Green and the crisis


It says some Conservative backbench MPs are pressing for him to lose his


title. The FT shows a picture


of Bernie Sanders with President Obama at the White House,


promising to work with Hillary Clinton to defeat


Donald Trump in the US election. Let's begin with the Metro. Yes,


this is the story you alluded to just now, that venues have been


banned from showing the match as an outdoor big screens because of fears


of terror attacks, the argument being the supporters will be safe in


designated fan zones where police can protect them. But England fans


said they would feel safer in small groups. But how can you... Are you


safer on the S side of an airport, where there is huge security and


people are waiting on longer, or on the other side? It's a very


difficult thing for the security forces and intelligence services. In


the wake of the attacks in France, they will be terribly worried about


the possibility. It's a nightmare to do this. Weather it makes any


difference, only time will tell, but it will have a huge impact on the


sense and feeling of the football tournament itself. A huge challenge


for the authorities, Nigel. You can't blame the French for being


twitchy, considering everything that has happened there. I agree with Joe


here. Whether it will make a difference, who knows, but the idea


of being in small groups and a variety of different bars,


presumably, statistically, you are more likely to be OK for a bomb goes


off in a big group. But really, in something like this, the only thing


you can do is go there, enjoy yourself, keep note of all the


authorities tell you not worry too much about it because there's


nothing you can do. The big screen outside, is traditional of these


tournaments. It is, but the impact of that is it is insane to you is


the influence that terrorism has, which has made people change the way


they have behaved. What we were saying about trying to carry on as


normal, we have not. We will talk about the EU. We will do it twice,


once fired the Guardian, but we will start with the Telegraph. This


quotes John Hayes, D Security minister, who is in favour of


leaving. He has done an interview with the Telegraph. He seems to be


saying, its total nonsense! The argument that everything I have


heard from Whitehall security sources saying that it really


doesn't make any difference, this should not be an argument. The way


that intelligence works is you operate with like-minded


intelligence services to our allies, personal relationships, it depends


on where the crossovers are and the relationships you have built up.


What he is saying is we are better off dealing with United States,


Canada, Australia, New Zealand. His critique is that the EU he says is


guilty of grand scheming and trying to appropriate power instead of


doing the job in hand. What you are talking about that is what is


happening at the political level. It's rather different from the guys


who operate on the ground. The intelligence services operate


outside the umbrella of the EU in the same way they operate here. John


Hayes, and what he said? I hate to say I agree with Nigel but it sounds


like an awful lot of twaddle to me. This is political posturing that


looks desperate. He also says, David Cameron is marvellous, presumably


trying to hedge his bets and keep some sort of political career,


whatever the result of the referendum and says this referendum


is not about his leadership or settling old scores or reducing big


arguments to petty points. I don't know where he has been for the last


few weeks because it is clearly about that. We have just talked


about the security measures in France, which I can't think would be


any different. Talking about political point scoring and be EU


referendum debate, the Guardian has got three photographs of three of


those taking part in the night's ITV debate. Three blondes. They are


going down the Nicola Sturgeon line with the headline. Apparently, she


led a concerted onslaught by the remaining campaign on Boris Johnson,


and this hinges on the figure of the ?350 million a week that Boris


Johnson has in the course of this debate stood by, that Britain sends


that much money, even though it has been pretty much rubbished by quite


a lot of people, including the independent statistics authority. It


is not taking into account the returns the to us. He argues that we


don't have control of that sum of money, that is where he comes from.


But it is not a sum of money we actually sent over. It's more like


100 or 150 million, which is considerably less. I think Boris...


I did not see much of this, only the news clips, but Nicola Sturgeon is a


formidable woman and formidable operator and Boris might be coming


is lightly unstuck. Looking further down the eye Boris performing


strongly on the issue of sovereignty. That that is right.


Both campaigns have been utterly appalling. Everybody is dealing in


absolutes and the voters don't and it would be so much better if David


Cameron had said, on balance, we are better off staying in, but instead


he says, an absolute disaster if we pull out. Same thing applies to the


Brexit campaign. The campaign has been very bad. What they have


narrowed it down to is that you have got the fear of immigration on one


side if we stay in, you have got the fear of economic uncertainty of the


pull-out, and those now at the campaign battle lines. I must say,


it's extremely refreshing to see if you all female faces and certainly


the interventions over the last 24 hours have actually brought things


down a little bit to a reasonable conversation to be blabbing around


the country. Five women, one man. We have the Financial Times. They are


talking about the polls and polling process and how difficult this is


proving to be, particularly in the light of what happened in Europe.


This is a really interesting story because the pollsters were caught


out or got it wrong, depending which way you choose to look at it, by


getting it completely wrong on the election, the last general election.


What's interesting about this is that because of the huge economic


impact either way, whatever the decision is, lots of people like


investment banks, hedge funds and investors, are trying to


second-guess the result so they can make arrangements either to move


money or reinvest or shift things around. The pollsters have got a lot


riding on this because if they get it wrong, and those investors make


the wrong decision, they will blame the pollsters. But what's really


interesting in the course of this lengthy article is the difference


between online polls and telephone poles. And on an online poll, you


end up with usually more don't know, don't know what to say, so a much


more neck and neck thing, whereas with a telephone pole, and to a


certain extent it self selecting, an online poll, because you are putting


your name forward, whereas with a telephone pole, someone can phone


you up and they will try to push you to yes or no. The other problem with


this is the sampling. In terms of who you choose to approach in the


first place and how you make sure that is representative. If the


pollsters are doing their job, they were weighted so it's


representative. Which they try to do a year ago! One fascinating


statistic here that the Financial Times mentions is that 56% of


telephone polls gave Tories believed, which is what happened,


only 10% of non-posted. The problem is that a telephone pole is very


labour-intensive and will cost ?10,000. An online poll comes in at


?1000. You can see why an awful lot of news organisations have been


going for the online version until we discovered last year that they


were not worth a lot. It is compounded by a problem here that


with general elections, they have something to base it on but this


time around, it is a long time ago since we had anything like it. This


referendum, we had no idea. But at the moment, pollsters are saying, if


you want to know our voting intention, use a telephone pole,


expensive but at least you will grill it down a bit because you are


talking to people and getting a proper reply. There is a brilliant


comment from Professor John Curtis who says lots of things are hanging


on this referendum, one of them is the future of the polling industry.


Reputation lay... They can't get it wrong again. A quick word about


Bernie Sanders who was edging towards... It is probably Hillary


Clinton's will he end up endorsing Hillary Clinton? The answer is


probably he will. It will probably depend on what job he gets when he


does. But if he does, she has got more chance of beating Trump because


he will bring with him the young people that he attracted and there


are quite a lot of people who don't like Hillary Clinton. It's a


peculiar image. That is further Hillary Clinton or for people to


draw pictures of Donald Trump. Nigel, this cartoon on the front of


the Telegraph is where we wish to end because it takes us back to


Brexit and Euro 2016 neatly. They have managed to combine the two


things together and he has got an England player saying, summing up


every issue there, immigration, football and the whole referendum


debate. He just gets it. He is so clever. Brilliant. Time is up. Thank


you both very much indeed. That is it for the papers the night before


we go, the Times coming while we have been talking and it leads with


the stem cell story and shows a picture of the Chancellor and Ruth


Davidson at a farm. They want the UK to stay in the EU. Don't forget, or


the front pages are online, where you can read a detailed review on


those papers. And you can see us there as well. So thanks again and




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