16/01/2017 The Papers


16/01/2017

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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With me are France 24's UK Correspondent Benedicte Paviot

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We will get right down to it, there is only one game in town. Brexit.

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And much to the delight of the Daily Express, Britannia rising to defend

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the United Kingdom. We will get a clean break from the EU according to

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the Daily Express. Mae reveals a vision for a global Britain. This is

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how long-awaited speech. That is right, according to the Daily

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Express their will be this clean break and Britain will reject any

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watered-down departure deal. It will not be half in half out, a bit like

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you cannot be half pregnant. It will be completely out of the European

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Union. Apparently the Prime Minister will confirm her top objective,

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Britain's future outside the EU. Many of the papers mostly agree

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Britain will be a free trading nation, global, outward looking.

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Funny, I thought the UK was pretty outward looking not just with the

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EU. We were noticing the papers do not quite agree. They think she is

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going to say the UK is pulling out of the single market and of the

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European Court of Justice, but they are not quite sure. The word that

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kept on coming up is nuanced. It is a French word. I don't think you

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will be allowed to use any more, maybe it will be illegal. Maybe you

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won't be able to stop it. Yes she will. So, basically, the single

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market is finished? Well, there has been, Clive, apparently all this

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briefing has been going on today. But whether all the pundits I have

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that much better informed, or are going to be that much better

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informed about where Theresa May really stands, remains to be seen.

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We are told repeatedly by the pro-Brexit media that Theresa May is

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now in a strong position. My big worry about the next few months, or

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dare I say it years, is are we actually going to get proper

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coverage of both sides of the negotiation? The British press, the

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predominantly London based press, is overwhelmingly and understandably

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perhaps at this stage interested in what the Brits are going to do. But

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there are 26 other countries who will be part of this negotiation.

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Let's look at the Daily Mail's FrontPage. Theresa May unveils a

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bold 12 point plan for Brexit. We will break free from EU judges.

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David is indicating not 100% clear that we are definitely going to be

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leaving the single market, although the papers seem to suggest it. The

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customs union. The customs union is still 50-50, but she has made it

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clear there will be no negotiation on the free movement of people,

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which means the single market is finished because Angela Merkel and

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Francois Hollande will not negotiate on that either. No, and as the Daily

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Mail says, its headline is we will regain control of our borders. That

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was one of the very big mantras of the Brexit campaign, and break free

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from EU judges. Let's open a ten second parenthesis. Wait this is

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being viewed on the continent, the former Prime Minister of France,

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Manuel Valls, thank you, Clive, is the President elect... We could do a

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bilingual show... The president elect has given a great

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psychological boost and that is very good and nice for the government,

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but the point is it is being viewed on the continent, not just in

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Germany, but also in France. France is already in the launching of its

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presidential campaign and general election and it is very much looking

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like it as if it is a war. Those are the words Manuel Valls used. It is

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being used and viewed as a war against the rest of the EU. Although

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the French president is not standing, which is a break with

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tradition, he is saying we are perfectly capable of organising our

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own relationships within the EU. This will not make the British

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Government's negotiating position any easier. Donald Trump thought he

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was doing us a favour. Hang on a minute, I seem to remember Boris

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Johnson and Michael Gove being very critical of the intervention of the

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US president called Barack Obama, in the back of the queue and all that,

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and now an American president, elected admittedly, is getting

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involved and it is good news. That is the world in which we live in.

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Indeed, very volatile, but could it have, as seemed to be the case with

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President Obama's intervention, could Donald Trump's intervention

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have an effect on the other 27 states? Would it make them even more

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determined? I saw the word Downing Street is perhaps in a strong

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position at this moment, but their big worry is at a very early stage

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these negotiations get rather acrimonious. Anybody who is seen to

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be staring that up, well, we will see what the price to pay is. That

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is why I am saying it will be very interesting the coverage of this

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great Brexit negotiation. Are we going to hear both sides? From both

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sides in the British media? Just watch the BBC and you will be fine.

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The FT has a very interesting FrontPage. Hang on, we have not got

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to that. I am just going to pick up on the point you made, forgive me,

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and it is about how acrimonious it could become. I have not read this

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in the other papers. The Prime Minister's team is very concerned

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that Brexit talks scheduled to begin later this year could quickly

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descend into real acrimonious rows of the UK's Brexit costs and

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liabilities according to the FT. We still owe the EU 50 billion? 400

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billion. 40 and 60 billion euros. That is the front page of the FT

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which also makes the point, David, about the governor of the Bank of

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England, Mark Carney's feelings that inflation could get out of hand and

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he will have to raise interest rates. This is the whole point. The

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economy has gone, it has gone pretty well since Brexit, or at least it

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has not fallen off a cliff. It is resilient. That is the word. The

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question is what about the medium-term, let alone the long

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term? There are elements of the economy, for example levels of debt,

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not just personal debt, but government debt, and it is not long

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ago I seem to remember being told about the deficit and that debt was

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a really big problem. I understand that it is now the figures that I

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have seen seem to be getting worse and it is being parked as an issue.

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Then you come to the exchange rate and at what point, if we have to put

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up, we are told, with the exchange rate taking a bit of a battering

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this week with perhaps after tomorrow, will it happen? It has

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already happened to some extent, but what will be the price to pay for

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that? What point does somebody in government start worrying? You were

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making the point earlier that the economy is doing fine after the

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vote, but that is because consumers are still spending and David has

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made the point about potentially a bubble and so on and so forth.

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Consumers are for the first time perhaps going to feel the effect of

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leaving the European Union, which is a rise in inflation. That could

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affect consumers to the point that they do not spend and the economy

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goes in the wrong direction. That is what Mr Carney thinks. Yes, that is

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interesting because it is different to what they were saying only six

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months ago. I think the government has walked us up a very big mountain

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today and this speech that we are all looking at and saying, let's

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remember that Theresa May was a candidate to succeed and what

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happened when we got Brexit is we did not get any kind of period, the

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others drop out and Theresa May was Prime Minister. We saw very little

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of her campaigning and she suddenly had to come in and bring in this

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team and she did it really quickly with that famous speech at Downing

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Street. But the fact is, tomorrow there needs to be some real meat on

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the bone. On the other hand people say why should she show her assets

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and strategy? Her hand. We will all be reporting on it. Very much so.

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Continuing with the FT, David, Northern Ireland. James Brokenshire,

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the Northern Ireland Secretary has called an election and the

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power-sharing executive has crumbled. A lot of problems there

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are clearly despite ten years of devolution. Those of us who have

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lived with the Irish problem for all of our lives, and I had a mother

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born in County Galway, my late mother, but I worked for a time in

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Belfast in the 70s, and this extraordinary power-sharing

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agreement when it was worked out some ten years ago, some of us

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always believed it was fragile and yet fantastic, a fantastic

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achievement which owed a lot to both conservative and Labour prime

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ministers. But now almost with the departure of Ian Paisley, the death

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of the reverend Ian Paisley, and now we see Mr McGuinness going as well,

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you start to see how fragile it was. Is that model, where you bring

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together two extremes, actually maybe it has served its purpose for

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a decade. My worry is that this election will not necessarily change

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very much. What happened if it is flipped and Sinn Fein gets the top

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job? A very good point. There is a suggestion from one analyst tonight

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telling me that it is highly unlikely that the DUP woodshed that

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way around. There is no way they would allow themselves to be in that

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position. We have to move on. The Telegraph, women treated like cattle

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in maternity units. This is an absolutely terribly sad and

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appalling and scary story. Once you are pregnant, that is not something

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you put off. You deliver that baby one way or another. There are some

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very serious things. Half women in childbirth are being completely let

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down to a point that it is actually very dangerous. 50% of new mothers

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have experienced what are called red flag events during labour where you

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basically do not have access to painkillers, where you do not have a

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midwife with you, and there is a shortage of 3500 midwives. We have

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got the picture of this stunningly beautiful bride and mother who was

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only 30 years old, and who had an emergency Caesarean. It does not

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happen every day, but that is a tragedy for her family and it looks

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like there are other really very serious, potential problems. It is

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very scary for any woman who is pregnant right now. Very scary and I

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fear another negative story for the NHS at a time like this. All right,

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finally, the cartoon on the front page of the Telegraph says it all as

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we all await Britannia's speech tomorrow. Let's see if we can bring

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it up. There it is. I wish Vladimir Putin would hack into the UK's

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Brexit plans and tell us what is going on. Hopefully Vladimir and the

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rest of the FSB will not have to do that. Thank you very much for

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joining us. Don't forget you can see the front

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pages of the papers online It's all there for you seven days

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a week at bbc.co.uk/papers. If you miss the programme any

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evening, you can watch it

:15:17.:15:20.

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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