02/02/2017 The Papers


02/02/2017

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Welcome to our look ahead to what The Papers will be bringing us

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tomorrow. We have Matthew Syed. The Financial Times leads on the Bank of

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England's upgrade the growth forecast for the economy. The

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Telegraph says the human rights lawyer accused of pursuing a

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witchhunt against British soldiers is facing calls to be prosecuted.

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The Times leads on the possible end to the train drivers strike on

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southern real after one union won what a paper calls as a significant

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concession. The Guardian says Nato must counter Russian hacking. The

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Express says exercise is the solution to back pain. The meal sees

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healthy eating faces rationing after extreme weather.

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The Metro, we are going to start with that. Things can only get

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better. Davis, the Brexit secretary, predicts bright future as Brexit

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plans are published. There are some suggesting things could get a lot

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worse. Yes, indeed. A sub editor with a sense of her study because 20

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years ago, about know, somebody was coming up with things can only get

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better as the theme tune for the general election campaign of the

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Labour Party, Tony Blair's first election. You were there at the

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beginning. I was there. It feels like ancient history. But a very

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pro-European Prime Minister who was hoping that he would be able to

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transform Britain's attitude towards the European Union and note the same

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catchy headline is being used by those who want to pull us out, or

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who have succeeded in convincing us that we should be taken out of the

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European Union. David Davies as saying that Britain's best days are

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ahead of us but it is still a degree of wishful thinking, he has not

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produced any evidence to show that is going to be the case. He has got

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to see that. It is his job to see that. He has produced a White Paper

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today which MPs had the chance to see, which does not tell us much

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about why he is so convinced that things are going to get better.

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Matthew, we are going to be striking out on our own, having these goods

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trade deals, we are not going to be shackled by all the red tape and the

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problems with the European Union, we can control our borders, the

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European Court of Justice is not going to be ruling us, it is going

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to be great. I have never heard that fit so well. I think he is wrong

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that better days are ahead because I voted remain and I thought it was in

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the national interest to stay in the European Union but I am delighted he

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is good to get a chance to prove me wrong because the British public

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took a view, Parliament is that they rightly has allowed the Government

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to trigger article 50 and he has got to see this, be optimistic and

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dynamic stock he must of negotiations will be tough. The EU

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will not be as compliant as some people are thinking but it might be.

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Not least because a fantastic deal where we can opt into things we like

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but not things we don't like would incentivise other nation states to

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leave the European Union. This is going to be fraught with

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difficulties and negotiation terms. But the British people have spoken.

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David Davies is on the stump. I had forgotten the catchphrase for that

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Tony Blair campaign. How happy was I or that day when he won? People

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accuse us of spin back in 1997. There is spin going on here. Having

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offered a book called the spin Doctors diary you should know what

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spin this. I have read it. Onto the Financial Times. Bank of England

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raises growth forecast again but remains wary of Brexit impact. We

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know that the Bank of England governor did not think that things

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were going to get better after the vote. He is eating humble pie for

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the third or fourth time now with a raised forecast. It is quite

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interesting. Note the GDP forecast is to draw 2% this year, same as

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last year, up from 1.4%, the forecast in November, but the

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forecast after the decision to leave the European Union was only 0.8%,

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saw the bag forecast, this is going to be damaging in the short term.

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The reason is the thought this would affect consumer spending and

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confidence. What they did not factor into the equation is that when 52%

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of the voting public think they have got their way the confidence grows.

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Maybe what we have here is people who really believed that Brexit was

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going to be good for their pocket and therefore are spending more

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money, building up a bit more debt which might not be good. That is the

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problem. It is all onto. I think it is more of the phlegmatic attitude

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of the British public. It has not happened yet. I change attitudes

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until that is a reason to do so. There is a danger that those who are

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in favour of leaving the European Union may think these two stories

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and because the growth forecasts have been upgraded that does not

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prove that things are going to get better because we have not yet left

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the European Union. Just on economic forecasts, it is remarkable, it is

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difficult to make accurate forecasts, the result of complexity,

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lots of people behaving in unpredictable ways,. What amazes me

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is how little economic forecasters update their predictive models in

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the light of events. Unless you do that and improve, there's not a lot

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of scientific method and forecasting. There is a very good

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book on exactly that. Visit your book? But none of this matters

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because we do not care about experts anyway. An expert who self justifies

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their existing assumptions because the eagle is bound up with an

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existing idea, that is a disaster. Those who want to revise the

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judgments in the light of experience. The points made here by

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somebody else, whose name I cannot find at the moment, there has been

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such a consistently wrong forecast, they are updating its too gradual

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Stickley. Let us move on to The Times. I do not door if you use

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southern real. All the time. You must be happy. The end in sight for

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rail strikers union claims victory. There will be a lot of happy

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commuters. I do not use it to commute every day. I used to see my

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parents. But can be chaotic as we all know. That is not fall over. The

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CHEERING Drivers appear to have settled. We

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do not know the details of the deal. But the conductors themselves in the

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RMT have not yet settled so it is not necessarily over and there is

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the risk of real Mac strikes heading to another part of the country where

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people will look at the deal and said they want that as well. A

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disgraceful strike. When The Independent rail it was saying that

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driver only trains would be safe, and these strikes have caused

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massive disruption, massive dent to the economy, even though the economy

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is still growing, this concession is too much. They have given guarantees

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that a second staff member would man every chain, the idea was to cut

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costs in a strange way, this guarantee, this could have a

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contagious effect. That you cannot cut costs and have a worse service.

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This is the kind of deal that seems to have put a smile back on faces.

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The Express. Inside page here. A lawyer who has been struck off, who

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was basically ambulance chasing, Tank chasing, some would suggest,

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hounding according to this newspaper, Gulf War heroes, to get

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prosecutions against British soldiers. I am so angered by this.

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It is disgraceful that this person, Phil Shiner, who held himself up as

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a great defender of human rights, has trampled over the rights of

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British soldiers who were putting their lives on the line for our

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nation in the Gulf. According to the tribunal today the allegations found

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that Phil Shiner's attempts to malign our soldiers were entirely

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without foundation. Deliberate lies. Reckless speculation. Ingrained

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hostility. Enriching himself duplicitous Lee at the expense of

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our soldiers. He deserves everything coming his way. Yes, he has been

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struck off. Some of the cases did prove to be true. There was

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mistreatment. Not an excuse. Some people might suggest that if this is

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taken too literally then perhaps some soldiers out there, who have

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been responsible for some problems, may not get prosecuted. That is a

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danger of that and that is another reason why what this month it was so

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awful. Those people who are genuinely trying to get at the truth

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rather than someone like this who was using shocking measures to

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profit from the process, those people who genuinely try to get to

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the truth, will find their work much harder and people will be less

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willing to listen to them. Before we go to our final item, The Telegraph,

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French toast, Francois Fillon feels the heat over wife pass back row. He

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is a leading contender for the French presidency but problems

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concerning over whether his wife was paid for what she did not do has

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stymied the entire thing. It is a complicated story but it is very

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important because he was seen as the most likely candidate to prevent

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Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right, at the sickest campaign is

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toast, whether he has to pull out or whether he limps on. It is good news

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for a centrist candidate, a sort of Blairite candidate. He is impressive

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and has no outperforming Francois Fillon Somerby things could get

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better for France. Financial Times. Trump, it is time for tough call. He

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is having a Barney there. He fights everyone. He is angling for a fight

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with Arnold Schwarzenegger who took over his job as the host of the

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apprentice. Viewing figures are plummeted. Arnold Schwarzenegger

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hits back by saying, but us swap jobs. Let us hear the very clip from

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Mr Trump himself. They hired a big movie star, Arnold Schwarzenegger,

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to take my place. We know how that turned out. The ratings went right

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down the tubes. It has been a total disaster. Never bet against Trump

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again. I want to pray for articles for those ratings. That was at a

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pre-breakfast -- that was at a prayer breakfast. I want to remind

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people that is the leader of the free world. Here is the response.

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Donald, why do we not switched jobs? You take over on TV and I take over

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your jobs and people can finally sleep comfortably again. I would be

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less skilled with Arnold Schwarzenegger as president. Arnold

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Schwarzenegger was Republican governor of California. And

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eventually very successful. Toxicity whether he might change the

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constitution. In five words, maybe ten, first week and a half of Trump,

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sum it up. He has followed through on his campaign pledges and

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therefore is behaving in a way that you could describe as democratic but

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he is exactly as dangerous as many people thought he would be. He has

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been true to his words but his words are as distressing and disturbing as

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ever, he is going about diplomacy and a completely different way,

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slamming down the phone on other world leaders. Let us see if it

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works. But as Matthew pointed out, he is doing what his followers

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wanted, the people who voted for him. Before we go tonight I wanted

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to show you a change to tonight's The Sun. They have a bespoke

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masthead on the paper. He has taken the name of the paper quite

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literally. A collectors item. You can see the front pages of all The

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Papers online on the BBC website. If you missed the problem bat if you

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missed the programme, any evening you can watch online. Thank you for

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watching. Goodbye. Good evening. It has been a

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turbulent day. Rain but particularly with the winds. They are

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