24/02/2017 The Papers


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Hello, welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bring us


tomorrow morning, with me is the economic Senator of the Independent


and the public affairs consultant Alex Deane. The Times leads with an


interview with David Miliband who says that Labour is the weakest it


has been for 50 years following the party 's defeat in the Copeland


by-election. And there is more on Labour, in the i Cena Jeremy Corbyn


refuses to stand down as the party leader despite losing that seed


Copeland for the first time in 80 years. The Telegraph focuses on the


Tory victory and Theresa May's declaration that the Conservatives


are now the party of working people. Staying with the Prime Minister, the


front page of the Financial Times talks about the pressure on her to


cut disability benefits. The Daily Mail reports that motorists should


be wary of buying diesel vehicles after a warning from Chris Grayling.


Express highlights what is a looming pension crisis, as UK taxpayers are


subsidising low paid jobs for foreign workers. The Daily Mail


front page says she is one of several residents that has been made


homeless because of a fire caused by a whirlpool dryer. In the Guardian


warns that tens of thousands of schoolchildren are being put at risk


due to toxic fumes. Let us begin. Perhaps you would kick us off. The


Daily Telegraph, the front page, we are the workers party now. Theresa


May. Very ominous words if you are a Labour supporter or Labour MP, she


has been saying this theme, she has been putting her tanks on Labour's


drawn, she is saying now it is really, really true because of this


catastrophic performance by Labour losing this seat of Copeland which


has been in power for 73 years, and a pretty poor showing in Stoke


although they held onto the seat. They basically halved their


majority. She's reinforcing that message. Labour is out of touch,


Jeremy Corbyn doesn't speak for working class communities.


Haemorrhaging support, not winning elections they should be winning and


we are riding high as the Conservative Party. Good for her,


going into the Brexit negotiations. The domestic Philip. Governments are


usually in the position of by-elections, suddenly this one does


matter? Normally the day after we are discussing these things and


explaining why the government lost. It is against form, let's be clear


on the facts. These are both seats that Labour should have won, on the


messaging, Labour has been in trouble in what they say for some


time. It is not just Jeremy Corbyn, in the last parliament Labour


allowed the Conservative Party to own the idea of the northern


powerhouse. Many people on the left was saying how did we


let this happen? George Osborne looks like the champion of working


people in the North. This is the next stage of that. Theresa May is


seeking to message working people with a party that really cares about


you, now eight conservative traditional interpretation of that


is that taxes too- something that I believe and working people will hear


and feel. But she's very good at broadening, David Cameron didn't


message as well to the tabloid has Theresa May. People care about these


issues that are fought over, she's doing very well. She is but Copeland


is a slightly special case, we shouldn't ignore that, Sellafield


nuclear plant and whatever else we would think about Labour, knowing


about the nuclear policy is one of the more perplexing things? There


are always local factors, but the big messages that Labour should be


winning the seat is very comfortably. From across the water I


think, I think David Miliband, still in New York. David Miliband saying


that Labour is at the weakest for 50 years. I can't figure out, whether


this is efforts by those within Labour, in very searingly positions,


trying to shake all been out of his position at last. Or if it is simply


more moaning from the sidelines for those who are not in the battle.


Actually the funny thing about politics is that both may be true.


David Miliband is off on his Thunderbirds International rescue


job in New York, comes back to the UK, and just in time to kick Labour


and say you are the weakest UI and 50 years to which many people will


say, you didn't stay and fight, you were our most promising person at OK


you lost your own brother, debt over it, you could have been helping us


instead of living it up on the other side of the pond. I think the other


thing to say about David Miliband, while he was a very promising


leadership candidate, I see no real appetite to see him back, I do see.


But the point that Jeremy Corbyn keeps on making is that he has got


this wonderful bedrock of support. That doesn't change no matter what


is happening in the by-elections. And David Miliband about his future,


we don't know what is going to happen but what is the point of


saying never? Is there a possibility of him coming back? I think the


bedrock of support. Not happy. But the cadre, is gone, the almost


cultish enthusiasm for him as their saviour. I think not the majority


but I think some of them will be looking at this, thinking Hang on,


maybe some of these doubts are right. This cannot go on, maybe the


penny is finally dropping. It is dropping among the union movement.


Indeed, you are queueing up the i, the front page. Here we have got,


Corbin given final warning. We can only see the front page, we don't


know who it is, but we think you probably know who it is. Yes it is


probably Dave Prentice, head of the public services union. Variant on


land the unions were very much behind Corbyn. So, any union guy,


big senior union guy who comes out and says, they are worried about


Jeremy Corbyn, final warning. That is significant because that is an


important part of his base and if these guys are starting to say this


can't go on. That will be very worrying. Is it down to Jeremy


Corbyn's departure? I don't know about that, I don't know whether


this is going to shake the tree on the next step, because of course he


still does have the Len McCluskey 's of this world. And even if they came


out against him, they don't control their members votes, for a long time


the union block vote was to cried as anti-democratic. Now the bosses may


feel that even if they come out against a leader like Corbin, their


members might still vote for him had in fact they would be quite likely


to. Let's move on, we talked about Theresa May, great day, wonderful


victory. But lots of things around the corner. We think Brexit, but the


FT has a slightly different thing, that she faces a disability benefits


battle. What is this about? Theresa May and her government, it is funny


that politics always wants to personalise and make it about the


leader. Actually this is about the government and an initiative that


began with Iain Duncan Smith and his attempt to change the welfare


system. The point that the government made in opposition under


IDS and his Centre for Social Justice is that many people when


they get onto benefits never come off them. In effect, you were


trapped in an environment where, you would never be asked in again if you


are sick and you are financially centre buys never to rejoin the


workforce. An attempt to fix that has led to an enormous backlash


saying that many people who should never be forced into work or even to


have an assessment are being assessed and assessed unfairly.


Theresa may now and her government now face a situation where there is


a significant deficit, as there is in every department in government.


?3.7 billion hole. Lure we had to be able to help those who can work back


into work and that instinct is admirable, but on the other hand


there has to be a point below nobody can fall. And taxes the price that


we pay to be in a civilised society. Wedding that balance right and being


seen to get that balance right is something that the Conservative


Party has to try to do. OK, then? This is interesting because this is


the reality behind some of the rhetoric, the party of the working


people, the compassionate face of the Conservatives because these are


benefit cuts that date back to George Osborne time. He trained


these cuts, and they are integral to his plan of balancing the budget.


Theresa May has not reversed those, this is one element of them. But the


big element is the cuts to tax credits which will fall on a lot of


working people. The idea. That is different to these disability


benefits. The package that George Osborne put through, it is part of


the legacy. I can agree with you about tax benefits that might


disincentive eyes people, but, I think the government is right to


say, a disability. It is a hard message to make. The disability


packages too generous and people who are not sick, claimed to be sick or


stay on sick. It is the old problem. Facing governments, particularly


Tory ones. And the Daily Telegraph story, about the Netherlands. The


Netherlands holds in quarry on whether it could ditch your row.


This is something that could be the beginning of something really big?


Explain to us what could happen. The Netherlands have elections on the


15th of March, important Parliamentary elections to decide


the composition of a new government and they have very powerful forces


of your scepticism bubbling up, the Netherlands is one of the core


countries of the Eurozone -- of Euroscepticism. The assumption is


that if countries like that start to leave, the whole edifice could


collapse to the fact that they are having a Parliamentary enquiring


into it, and they will discuss it after the new elections. Implies


that it would be a big issue potentially at those elections, and


if this is your sceptic further, gets built up a head of steam, there


is no telling where it might end. This is all about how planking this


character girt builders. This is an attempt to trawl the sting out of


the Eurosceptic movement. This is about forcing people to be able to


say, don't worry, we can do with that after the election. Dealing


with that thing that is most strong for the Eurosceptic movement. Most


people don't question the EU but they do question the impact of the


euro. In wealthy nations like the Netherlands they deeply resent


bailing out poorer countries like Greece. It is worth reflecting it is


not just bailing them out, the Greeks spend the money themselves


that got them into debt but keeping them in a currency in which they


plainly have no place, that is the EU's Falls and degeneration of Greek


youth have been sacrificed on the altar of the European Union. Any


decent minded Dutchman would look at that and say is this what we want to


be part of? Yes but this could be something, we know all about us


exiting, but one of the mainstays of the European Union, if it starts to


move away from the currency. RIP the euro? We saw how the markets react.


Potentially, crumbling, breaking apart, it is trade is going really


nuts about the prospect. Four. They forced the Greeks to stay in for


political reasons. The Greeks would have come out and devalued. They


were forced to stay in because of the project, not just economic.


Let's move on, the Daily Mail, minister says beware of buying a


diesel. This is Chris Grayling, the trust for secretary. It is worth


saying on the inside pages the Department for Transport guy is


saying this is in no way saying that you shouldn't buy diesel. This is


the minister saying that people should be environmentally aware in


making the decisions they had to make. Chris Grayling has said that


people should be aware of and alive to the point that if you are making


busy journeys and city environments than The Habs there is a better


environmental choice for you than diesel. Dad is probably true, it on


the other hand it is another mood music move against diesel, after a


time where people were positively encouraged to go to diesel. That is


what is unfair, many people up and down the country thought they were


doing the right thing, OK they thought they were getting many more


miles to the gallon, but they thought they were doing the right


thing when they bought a diesel car, but they have seen environments in


which government is up and down the land, ministers in Westminster and


Merrill in many cities are looking at how. Pretty diesel cars into an


environment even having them on the road, it is far too fast to be fair


because many people bought diesel in an environment where they were


positively encourage. At the same time, you would think that people's


attention should be drawn to the polluting effect. Governments have


been doing similar things for many years touring courage in the


congestion charge, in London is based on how much the outfit from


their car, search it is just a move from lack. You can look at it in two


ways, on the surface you can say that it looks like Arthur Daley, but


on the other hand you might be right comedies pushing on an open door. It


is well known that diesel is not the panacea for the environment, or for


the driver that it was once presented as. We have had the whole


VW scandal has totally tarnished the brand of diesel. So in that sense


you might argue that it is the bit of a nudge policy. The diesel


scrapping scheme, and I suspect this is all part and parcel of bad agenda


so maybe he is trying to nudge things in the right ways. The other


reason why they mean notches because they've lost the case over their


environmental emissions, controlled to clean earth, saying they are not


moving far enough. And they may not want to lose a game like that. The


Daily Mail is talking about business rates. Not just business rate. Small


firms may be forced to work out their own rates. Li there is the


suggestion that firms who ready face enormous hikes, not quite as


enormous as the mail says, it is 300%. Never wrong for long. These


firms may then have to try to their own rate. As we all know, if the


taxman makes an error in your favour, you don't get paid interest


on it and nobody gets into trouble when it is finally corrected but if


you make an error that is contrary to the taxman's favour then you had


to pay up in retrospect a quite a lot of money. Imagine that you are a


small business com you debt have a full-time accountancy department, we


don't have somebody working on this, you have not only to work out your


own rate but if you get it wrong, you may face punitive punishment


going back years. I had to say, it is a bit of a complex matter, it is


worth reading to the end, the Revenue and Customs, and the


Treasury. They say "It does not indicate a government preference."


It is quiet is the context in the way that small businesses work with


business rates, they have this very infrequent evaluations, one of the


reasons why there is such a furore, they're not done it in seven years,


it is done on this way. He paid is often successful. It is possible, it


is possible that it might be better for firms to say, this is what we


think. If they disagree with that. The trouble is that local government


doesn't have enough money, what we are doing is forcing local


businesses to take on the risk of these calculations. One story we


must do is go to the back pages, all papers have this story about Paul


Rolf Ranieri getting the boot. -- poor old Ranieri. Interesting slant


on it in the express, who wants to have a go at this? Jose Mourinho


wading in? Key has been there, he has been in that position, players


don't perform and then he gets the boot. As a winning manager. It is


really interesting, that for the players, he is saying they are out.


They started thinking about money and they started not performing and


they let Ranieri down. That is what happened in the Chelsea Boot room, I


will be at Palace against Middlesbrough and everybody will be


talking about Ranieri going. It is such a rich is to Iraq story and it


is so sad, win the title and out next season, that is modern


football, if I owned the club, could you guarantee wouldn't do it? Thank


you very much indeed, we have to leave it there. That is it for the


papers tonight. Don't forget you can see the front pages online. And if


you missed the programme, any evening you can watch it later on


the BBC I play. From us all, goodbye.


So after the storm: we have got some sunshine, nor absolutely everywhere


but overall, a pretty good day across most of the UK, a few


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