24/02/2017 The Papers

Hello, welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bring us

tomorrow morning, with me is the economic Senator of the Independent

and the public affairs consultant Alex Deane. The Times leads with an

interview with David Miliband who says that Labour is the weakest it

has been for 50 years following the party 's defeat in the Copeland

by-election. And there is more on Labour, in the i Cena Jeremy Corbyn

refuses to stand down as the party leader despite losing that seed

Copeland for the first time in 80 years. The Telegraph focuses on the

Tory victory and Theresa May's declaration that the Conservatives

are now the party of working people. Staying with the Prime Minister, the

front page of the Financial Times talks about the pressure on her to

cut disability benefits. The Daily Mail reports that motorists should

be wary of buying diesel vehicles after a warning from Chris Grayling.

Express highlights what is a looming pension crisis, as UK taxpayers are

subsidising low paid jobs for foreign workers. The Daily Mail

front page says she is one of several residents that has been made

homeless because of a fire caused by a whirlpool dryer. In the Guardian

warns that tens of thousands of schoolchildren are being put at risk

due to toxic fumes. Let us begin. Perhaps you would kick us off. The

Daily Telegraph, the front page, we are the workers party now. Theresa

May. Very ominous words if you are a Labour supporter or Labour MP, she

has been saying this theme, she has been putting her tanks on Labour's

drawn, she is saying now it is really, really true because of this

catastrophic performance by Labour losing this seat of Copeland which

has been in power for 73 years, and a pretty poor showing in Stoke

although they held onto the seat. They basically halved their

majority. She's reinforcing that message. Labour is out of touch,

Jeremy Corbyn doesn't speak for working class communities.

Haemorrhaging support, not winning elections they should be winning and

we are riding high as the Conservative Party. Good for her,

going into the Brexit negotiations. The domestic Philip. Governments are

usually in the position of by-elections, suddenly this one does

matter? Normally the day after we are discussing these things and

explaining why the government lost. It is against form, let's be clear

on the facts. These are both seats that Labour should have won, on the

messaging, Labour has been in trouble in what they say for some

time. It is not just Jeremy Corbyn, in the last parliament Labour

allowed the Conservative Party to own the idea of the northern

powerhouse. Many people on the left was saying how did we

let this happen? George Osborne looks like the champion of working

people in the North. This is the next stage of that. Theresa May is

seeking to message working people with a party that really cares about

you, now eight conservative traditional interpretation of that

is that taxes too- something that I believe and working people will hear

and feel. But she's very good at broadening, David Cameron didn't

message as well to the tabloid has Theresa May. People care about these

issues that are fought over, she's doing very well. She is but Copeland

is a slightly special case, we shouldn't ignore that, Sellafield

nuclear plant and whatever else we would think about Labour, knowing

about the nuclear policy is one of the more perplexing things? There

are always local factors, but the big messages that Labour should be

winning the seat is very comfortably. From across the water I

think, I think David Miliband, still in New York. David Miliband saying

that Labour is at the weakest for 50 years. I can't figure out, whether

this is efforts by those within Labour, in very searingly positions,

trying to shake all been out of his position at last. Or if it is simply

more moaning from the sidelines for those who are not in the battle.

Actually the funny thing about politics is that both may be true.

David Miliband is off on his Thunderbirds International rescue

job in New York, comes back to the UK, and just in time to kick Labour

and say you are the weakest UI and 50 years to which many people will

say, you didn't stay and fight, you were our most promising person at OK

you lost your own brother, debt over it, you could have been helping us

instead of living it up on the other side of the pond. I think the other

thing to say about David Miliband, while he was a very promising

leadership candidate, I see no real appetite to see him back, I do see.

But the point that Jeremy Corbyn keeps on making is that he has got

this wonderful bedrock of support. That doesn't change no matter what

is happening in the by-elections. And David Miliband about his future,

we don't know what is going to happen but what is the point of

saying never? Is there a possibility of him coming back? I think the

bedrock of support. Not happy. But the cadre, is gone, the almost

cultish enthusiasm for him as their saviour. I think not the majority

but I think some of them will be looking at this, thinking Hang on,

maybe some of these doubts are right. This cannot go on, maybe the

penny is finally dropping. It is dropping among the union movement.

Indeed, you are queueing up the i, the front page. Here we have got,

Corbin given final warning. We can only see the front page, we don't

know who it is, but we think you probably know who it is. Yes it is

probably Dave Prentice, head of the public services union. Variant on

land the unions were very much behind Corbyn. So, any union guy,

big senior union guy who comes out and says, they are worried about

Jeremy Corbyn, final warning. That is significant because that is an

important part of his base and if these guys are starting to say this

can't go on. That will be very worrying. Is it down to Jeremy

Corbyn's departure? I don't know about that, I don't know whether

this is going to shake the tree on the next step, because of course he

still does have the Len McCluskey 's of this world. And even if they came

out against him, they don't control their members votes, for a long time

the union block vote was to cried as anti-democratic. Now the bosses may

feel that even if they come out against a leader like Corbin, their

members might still vote for him had in fact they would be quite likely

to. Let's move on, we talked about Theresa May, great day, wonderful

victory. But lots of things around the corner. We think Brexit, but the

FT has a slightly different thing, that she faces a disability benefits

battle. What is this about? Theresa May and her government, it is funny

that politics always wants to personalise and make it about the

leader. Actually this is about the government and an initiative that

began with Iain Duncan Smith and his attempt to change the welfare

system. The point that the government made in opposition under

IDS and his Centre for Social Justice is that many people when

they get onto benefits never come off them. In effect, you were

trapped in an environment where, you would never be asked in again if you

are sick and you are financially centre buys never to rejoin the

workforce. An attempt to fix that has led to an enormous backlash

saying that many people who should never be forced into work or even to

have an assessment are being assessed and assessed unfairly.

Theresa may now and her government now face a situation where there is

a significant deficit, as there is in every department in government.

?3.7 billion hole. Lure we had to be able to help those who can work back

into work and that instinct is admirable, but on the other hand

there has to be a point below nobody can fall. And taxes the price that

we pay to be in a civilised society. Wedding that balance right and being

seen to get that balance right is something that the Conservative

Party has to try to do. OK, then? This is interesting because this is

the reality behind some of the rhetoric, the party of the working

people, the compassionate face of the Conservatives because these are

benefit cuts that date back to George Osborne time. He trained

these cuts, and they are integral to his plan of balancing the budget.

Theresa May has not reversed those, this is one element of them. But the

big element is the cuts to tax credits which will fall on a lot of

working people. The idea. That is different to these disability

benefits. The package that George Osborne put through, it is part of

the legacy. I can agree with you about tax benefits that might

disincentive eyes people, but, I think the government is right to

say, a disability. It is a hard message to make. The disability

packages too generous and people who are not sick, claimed to be sick or

stay on sick. It is the old problem. Facing governments, particularly

Tory ones. And the Daily Telegraph story, about the Netherlands. The

Netherlands holds in quarry on whether it could ditch your row.

This is something that could be the beginning of something really big?

Explain to us what could happen. The Netherlands have elections on the

15th of March, important Parliamentary elections to decide

the composition of a new government and they have very powerful forces

of your scepticism bubbling up, the Netherlands is one of the core

countries of the Eurozone -- of Euroscepticism. The assumption is

that if countries like that start to leave, the whole edifice could

collapse to the fact that they are having a Parliamentary enquiring

into it, and they will discuss it after the new elections. Implies

that it would be a big issue potentially at those elections, and

if this is your sceptic further, gets built up a head of steam, there

is no telling where it might end. This is all about how planking this

character girt builders. This is an attempt to trawl the sting out of

the Eurosceptic movement. This is about forcing people to be able to

say, don't worry, we can do with that after the election. Dealing

with that thing that is most strong for the Eurosceptic movement. Most

people don't question the EU but they do question the impact of the

euro. In wealthy nations like the Netherlands they deeply resent

bailing out poorer countries like Greece. It is worth reflecting it is

not just bailing them out, the Greeks spend the money themselves

that got them into debt but keeping them in a currency in which they

plainly have no place, that is the EU's Falls and degeneration of Greek

youth have been sacrificed on the altar of the European Union. Any

decent minded Dutchman would look at that and say is this what we want to

be part of? Yes but this could be something, we know all about us

exiting, but one of the mainstays of the European Union, if it starts to

move away from the currency. RIP the euro? We saw how the markets react.

Potentially, crumbling, breaking apart, it is trade is going really

nuts about the prospect. Four. They forced the Greeks to stay in for

political reasons. The Greeks would have come out and devalued. They

were forced to stay in because of the project, not just economic.

Let's move on, the Daily Mail, minister says beware of buying a

diesel. This is Chris Grayling, the trust for secretary. It is worth

saying on the inside pages the Department for Transport guy is

saying this is in no way saying that you shouldn't buy diesel. This is

the minister saying that people should be environmentally aware in

making the decisions they had to make. Chris Grayling has said that

people should be aware of and alive to the point that if you are making

busy journeys and city environments than The Habs there is a better

environmental choice for you than diesel. Dad is probably true, it on

the other hand it is another mood music move against diesel, after a

time where people were positively encouraged to go to diesel. That is

what is unfair, many people up and down the country thought they were

doing the right thing, OK they thought they were getting many more

miles to the gallon, but they thought they were doing the right

thing when they bought a diesel car, but they have seen environments in

which government is up and down the land, ministers in Westminster and

Merrill in many cities are looking at how. Pretty diesel cars into an

environment even having them on the road, it is far too fast to be fair

because many people bought diesel in an environment where they were

positively encourage. At the same time, you would think that people's

attention should be drawn to the polluting effect. Governments have

been doing similar things for many years touring courage in the

congestion charge, in London is based on how much the outfit from

their car, search it is just a move from lack. You can look at it in two

ways, on the surface you can say that it looks like Arthur Daley, but

on the other hand you might be right comedies pushing on an open door. It

is well known that diesel is not the panacea for the environment, or for

the driver that it was once presented as. We have had the whole

VW scandal has totally tarnished the brand of diesel. So in that sense

you might argue that it is the bit of a nudge policy. The diesel

scrapping scheme, and I suspect this is all part and parcel of bad agenda

so maybe he is trying to nudge things in the right ways. The other

reason why they mean notches because they've lost the case over their

environmental emissions, controlled to clean earth, saying they are not

moving far enough. And they may not want to lose a game like that. The

Daily Mail is talking about business rates. Not just business rate. Small

firms may be forced to work out their own rates. Li there is the

suggestion that firms who ready face enormous hikes, not quite as

enormous as the mail says, it is 300%. Never wrong for long. These

firms may then have to try to their own rate. As we all know, if the

taxman makes an error in your favour, you don't get paid interest

on it and nobody gets into trouble when it is finally corrected but if

you make an error that is contrary to the taxman's favour then you had

to pay up in retrospect a quite a lot of money. Imagine that you are a

small business com you debt have a full-time accountancy department, we

don't have somebody working on this, you have not only to work out your

own rate but if you get it wrong, you may face punitive punishment

going back years. I had to say, it is a bit of a complex matter, it is

worth reading to the end, the Revenue and Customs, and the

Treasury. They say "It does not indicate a government preference."

It is quiet is the context in the way that small businesses work with

business rates, they have this very infrequent evaluations, one of the

reasons why there is such a furore, they're not done it in seven years,

it is done on this way. He paid is often successful. It is possible, it

is possible that it might be better for firms to say, this is what we

think. If they disagree with that. The trouble is that local government

doesn't have enough money, what we are doing is forcing local

businesses to take on the risk of these calculations. One story we

must do is go to the back pages, all papers have this story about Paul

Rolf Ranieri getting the boot. -- poor old Ranieri. Interesting slant

on it in the express, who wants to have a go at this? Jose Mourinho

wading in? Key has been there, he has been in that position, players

don't perform and then he gets the boot. As a winning manager. It is

really interesting, that for the players, he is saying they are out.

They started thinking about money and they started not performing and

they let Ranieri down. That is what happened in the Chelsea Boot room, I

will be at Palace against Middlesbrough and everybody will be

talking about Ranieri going. It is such a rich is to Iraq story and it

is so sad, win the title and out next season, that is modern

football, if I owned the club, could you guarantee wouldn't do it? Thank

you very much indeed, we have to leave it there. That is it for the

papers tonight. Don't forget you can see the front pages online. And if

you missed the programme, any evening you can watch it later on

the BBC I play. From us all, goodbye.

So after the storm: we have got some sunshine, nor absolutely everywhere

but overall, a pretty good day across most of the UK, a few