29/04/2017 The Papers


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be


There is quite a lot of us! Look who was passing and dropped in!


With me are John Rentoul, the Chief Political Columnist


at The Independent, Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser for


Arbuthnot Banking Group and the broadcaster Charlie Wolf.


You are here to talk three 100 days of the Donald Trump administration.


We are discombobulated by this new format!


The Observer reports on today's summit of EU leaders saying


they want the UK to provide guarantees to EU citizens living


in Britain before any trade talks can begin.


The Sunday Times also leads on the summit,


reporting that the other EU member states have rejected Theresa May's


negotiating position and accused her of living


The Sunday Telegraph says the Prime Minister has rejected


the demands coming from Brussels as politicians on both sides


of the Channel warned that the talks could turn nasty.


The Mail on Sunday reports that Theresa May will bring


in new laws to prevent a repeat of the Sir Philip Green BHS pension


The Sunday Express leads on the investigating


into the disappearance of Madeleine McCann,


It says Scotland Yard's prime suspect is a woman.


Of course, we will start with Brussels. We would not expect


anything else. The Observer says the EU tells Theresa May, give us rights


for our citizens or no trade talks. They did not take long to decide


that negotiating position, considering there were 27 of them.


It will not take long to sort out the citizens' rights question


because everyone is agreed that we will give reciprocal rights, EU


citizens here can have their rights and British citizens there can have


their own rights so we can get on with the trade talks. Cammy? There


is the exit Bill? Were making three points, one is citizens rights, that


could be agreed quickly and the financial settlement will be far


more contentious and they want 60 billion by the British government


says we will not pay anything like that and the third is about the


Irish border and it was in the notes of Donald Tusk, when he wrote to


Theresa May at the beginning of April, he said that some progress


had to be made on those things before they could start discussing


the new relationship between the UK and EU so none of this new. It is


fake news! Or just a rehash? It is a fake rehash. This is a rehash. Is


that fake? I stung this with Andrew Neil a few years ago, this is Kabuki


theatre. The Japanese theatre. In America it means this posturing,


this little dance, this little show, and it is Kabuki theatre and these


are not issues, citizens' rights, yes. The Irish border? I don't see


that as an issue. Dear me! It is an island so if they are worried about


people getting into Europe, they will still have to go through a port


somewhere? But because of the history of Northern Ireland and


Ireland, the heart border was a big issue. That is concerning. I see


this as a soft border. There has been a common travel area well


before the European Union. The Republic of Ireland will be staying


in the single market and that means the full freedoms of goods and


services and capital and Labour so anybody working in Ireland, if there


was no border controls, they could move to Northern Ireland, so that is


an issue and that is an issue on the tablets because if it happens that


we have tariffs against the EU, against Ireland, that could be an


issue. There are mince -- amends political sensitivities also. Those


are the specific things you can relate to the Republic of Ireland,


it will remain in the EU and we will leave so that issue has to be


discussed. It will not be straightforward. I think it could be


resolved whereas the exit bill could not be resolved because they want 60


billion and we want to pay 10 billion or 5 billion, quite a big


gap. If that is not resolved then nothing else can be. You will come


back to that in a second but I want to do with the other story on the


front page of the Observer, Labour pledged to outlaw all zero hours


contracts, these have been very controversial, Charlie is saying!


Put a halt to unpaid internships. Ruth, with a business background,


what is your view? I am not keen on zero hours contracts but if it is a


choice between a job and no job, I want a job, with zero hours. I have


never had one of those, I have always been lucky with my


employment, until I got the sack! But that is history. It was rather


unfortunate. When Labour puts all of these extra restrictions on


employment any to be careful, they are also talking... You say


restrictions but they are safeguards for employees? Do you have a job or


not? If you have the job, you have more rights and safeguards but if it


is harder to get into the Labour market, that is a problem. It is


always great to sit next to somebody like Ruth, an economist, I wish they


would teach more economics in schools, you can at ?15 every other,


make it 50 of it ever, if you don't have a job, it doesn't matter. There


is a finite pot of money generally and a lot of companies, and


companies will pay you top dollar if they can. We'll be? All of them?


Those shareholders support that? I never chap who runs 30 McDonald's


restaurants and others discussing how you save money, with kiosks, he


says the way they do this, it takes more backroom staff, they want a


good product but you cannot pay more going out than what is coming in.


With zero hours, we have to turn up for work and you are only paid when


you physically do the job. I agree with Ruth, they are not ideal but


for some people they are quite convenient. When McDonald's offered


employees the chance to switch from zero hours to fixed hours. That was


only taken up by a minority of the staff. It suggests that for some


people, at zero hours contract is preferred because it is flexible and


what they want. The Labour position used to be that it was against


exploitative zero hours contracts, I do not know how you define that. It


is the same with minimum wage. Especially if talking about youth,


you want to get onto the ladder. You want the training that you get from


these very good firms. I will mention McDonald's, they do a very


good job... Are they sponsoring new? Seriously, they have one of the best


training programmes in the world. I don't think we have time to delve


into McDonald's! If they had a chance from a company like them and


there are other companies that sell similar products, I would pay them


to get my first job because it gets you into the market and you rise up.


We don't have time to do with the criticisms of McDonald's over the


years so we can look at the other Brussels story, Theresa May rejects


Brussels, she is saying, she is laughing them off. I think this is


fake news. I think she is right, it is just politics. Posturing on both


sides. It is Kabuki theatre and I used to work for the Japanese so I


should know! Tough terms for Brexit? We know these terms. These were


Donald Tusk's terms. There is no news. It is not news but it


illustrates something I have been talking about for years... Let


refinish! I think I have conked out! I have forgotten what I was saying.


You said you knew this but what is new is they got together, the new


topline, 27 countries. That was expected, I didn't know anybody who


did not expect those 27 countries to reject the guidelines today. I don't


think anybody expected that to happen. The piece yesterday, very


interested in the project. And nothing else but the project. If


Greece goes down, big deal, what was a line from The Simpsons? - one


welcome our new alien overlords and I have always thought that about


Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk. They did not let Greece go down. He


said I would never have taken the deal, they are interested in the


project and if they want 60 billion, I will tell them where to put that.


If they want the project to survive, they cannot make it look too easy


for Britain? Even if they are not ganging up, as Angela Merkel said?


It is not in their interests to allow us to have as good a deal but


where I disagree with Charlie is the idea that it is going to be good for


Britain, economically, to leave the EU, I do not think it is. Ruth will


back me up. Free trade makes you better off. And we're going to have


less free trade with the European Union. We may or may not, if we


leave without any agreement, it is feasible but not optimal and it is


much better if some sort of trade agreement is negotiated with the


European Union and I think there will be one. There is posturing,


there is no doubt, they have to, but why do I think there will be a trade


agreement? Because it is in their interests, they have a whacking


great trade interest. And they are interested in the project,


interested not in punishing us but in making sure we do not benefit.


They are not going to bash their own export industries en route. If they


are economically rational and sensible... They may not be!


Nordstrom is the trade Commissioner and she said there will be a trade


agreement, for sure. I would take the record collection in the


divorce, I would take the other side's clothing and dump that on the


front lawn and say, I will keep the record collection, you can have the


kids and just end it! DME! Tories sidestep the Heathrow split, the


Conservative manifesto will not mention the Heathrow third runway?


Interesting, we're getting close to crunch day on the Tory manifesto,


that will be published on Monday week. Big decisions have to be made


as to what will be in it and it looks as if Theresa May has decided


not to mention Heathrow. That solves that. Do they need to? They don't


because apparently there is no decision that will be imminent about


Heathrow but at some point I wish they would push ahead and get on


with this third runway. I know Boris was against this as the Mayor.


Sensible chap? I thought it was a jolly good idea to have a third


runway! I think this is very hopeful news for those who do not agree. The


sensor that it -- sensitivities of borrowers have been dealt with, they


want Zach Johnson to win Richmond. He was ousted not so long ago. Well,


he resigned in protest against Heathrow and he now wants to be the


Conservative MP, even the policy has not changed. To me, this is not


necessarily an election, this is the second referendum in advance. This


is a one issue election, the Labour Party with Jeremy Corbyn, whatever


his visa on the runway, the least of his problems, and they are taking


advantage of this. The guy is like the Black Knight in the Monty Python


film, nothing but one arm left, fight me! Theresa May a saying,


great, this will be a referendum, I have the ability to negotiate the EU


and Brexit however I want, why bring this up? Smart lady. Tactical. There


are other things she could have avoided mentioning, she has carried


on with the immigration cap. The Sunday Times... The 100 day salute


from the Chief. Donald Trump saluting a US Marine on his return


to the White House, he was addressing the National Rifle


Association, who are very supportive of him. He has helped them out with


various executive orders to unpack some of the controls that President


Obama had. The one thing he has done and accomplished fully during his


100 days and it will be the thing that I'd last seven as a legacy is


getting him onto the Supreme Court, the original meaning will be kept,


that second Amendment is very important to a lot of Americans.


Overall, it is easy to make fun of the man, I no news broadcasters have


been having fun. As you know, from last night... She is the fairest


woman I know in all of broadcasting. You can put that in lights! Nice


lady! To me, what can you do in 100 days? FDR did quite a lot? I am sure


he did with the new deal but I was not there at the time, was that


1933? Lets just say the 1930s. Before my time. He is a bit random,


I am a statistician and we have random walks, where you do not know


where he is going and I think Donald Trump's policies are a bit of a


random walk, if you get my drift. Should you not given credit for


changing his mind? I do and he has changed his mind on a lot of things,


he has been obliged to do with Obamacare and the wall, I don't


think that is going up, Mexico will not pay for it, and the problem with


the visitors coming in from countries he did not like and that


has been stopped. He has changed his mind partly because people have


forced him to. He is very pleased with the results he has got and he


said he does not think anybody has achieved as much as he has in 100


days. He is quite keen to blow his own trumpet. No pun intended. He


said 100 days as a target for achieving lots of things, which he


has not achieved, but that is Donald Trump, he is bluster and a jolly


good thing because it turns out that Donald Trump in his first 100 days,


if you push on, he will move. If he comes up against the con situation


and the courts in the United States, he will give way. He changes his


mind and do something more sensible and that is all very good news.


There is definitely a pragmatism and thank God, when you look at


international affairs, it was right to address Syria, especially, and


address North Korea, that was not in his plans, he has gone back, his


America first policy is a more traditional, in other words, if


Assad is gassing his own people, it is in our interest because we do not


want to see chemical weapons so that is part of America first. If he does


not succeed in achieving all of the things he promised his supporters,


when he comes up early election, if you bothered to stand again because


he has said he misses his old life, this is not like I thought it was


going to be, were they not have long memories and remember what he has


not done? As far as Syria is concerned, they are not interested,


they want to see the economy improved, these are people who are


blue-collar workers, it is different than working class, they own their


own businesses and they want to see the economy improving. Which it has


been doing. The economy is doing well? Bottas at dodger. If


incredibly low interest rates like everybody else and quantitative


easing and the economy has recovered. It was a very weak


first-quarter figure yesterday. Unemployment is very low. There are


a lot of people who say this is fake, the market is not sustainable,


the numbers... If you have these absurdly low interest rates, what do


you expect? When interest rates Titan, you will find that you're


talking about equities, they will come off. If these 100 days of the


golden period when you rush to get things done, he has a long time in


office still to deal with the rest of it. He might not find that is


easy because as we could see with Obamacare... He is not finding it


easy and he will not achieve many other things he set out to achieve.


Charlie and Ruth are right, his supporters are very much focused on


domestic American questions and the economy carries on growing he will


be fine and a few bills lots of airports and bridges, who knows


whether that will have enough of an effect by the next election? But it


will start to give the impression that America is moving again. In the


polling I have seen, it says that he has outgrown his audience but within


his constituency, something like 97% approval and if they held the


election tomorrow, but only would he take the electoral college, he would


still beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote as well. What is his


next priority? It is hard to say. He goes with whatever seems to be


there. Whatever is on television tomorrow morning. North Korea. That


cannot be ignored. It cannot, what he is doing with North Korea is


actually correct because Kim Jong-un is a madman and you don't want him


to have nuclear weapons somewhat Donald Trump is doing is correct and


Obama did not think about that. It is marvellous to let you say that


without having to jump to his defence! Shall we talk about the


last thing, HS2 trains bulking up for the bulky? Heavier trains are


necessary because passengers are heavier? I am looking at you only


because I have trouble with Amtrak trains, which are so much bigger


than ours and extremely comfortable. So our cars. Big country with big


people. Lots of space. Yes, wide open spaces. Things must be doing


very good over here in the United Kingdom. People are getting fatter?


People are getting fatter. We will not have double-decker trains? You


will not have that. They will not go under bridges. Those lovely old


bridges. Most of HS2 will be in a tunnel as well. Not only do I not


agree with building a third runway at Heathrow, I do not agree with HS2


either. I am hoping HS2 will not go ahead. The costs, having to build


bigger trains for bigger and taller, fatter people, then perhaps that


will tip the balance. The economics do not stack up? I think this is a


misallocation of scarce resources, to use a harmless phrase. I am


showing off! But joking apart, the money going into this, we do not


know what the final bill will be, 50 billion? It could be worse than


leaving the EU. That money would be better spent on other infrastructure


projects. It is a white elephant. A fourth runway? 28 runways at


Stansted. The poor people of Essex. Why should they be so encumbered?


Back to the story, the spill-over effect of passengers with two broad


standard six? This is a modern problem on planes? Apparently it is.


People can get squashed. One can get squashed in a plane, I have been


squashed on several occasions. Nowadays you just worry about not


getting dragged off! The aisles are wider to help them dragged off!


George the large rabbit? I was very upset. We always are with animals.


That was quite a nice spread of stories, shall we see what we can


come up with that 11:30pm? We will see what we can find. That is it.


Charlie, Ruth and John will be back again with another look at the front


pages at 11:30pm. We will see you shortly. The weather is next.


Pretty quiet start to the Bank Holiday weekend, the


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