29/04/2017 The Papers


29/04/2017

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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There is quite a lot of us! Look who was passing and dropped in!

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With me are John Rentoul, the Chief Political Columnist

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at The Independent, Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser for

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Arbuthnot Banking Group and the broadcaster Charlie Wolf.

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You are here to talk three 100 days of the Donald Trump administration.

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We are discombobulated by this new format!

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The Observer reports on today's summit of EU leaders saying

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they want the UK to provide guarantees to EU citizens living

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in Britain before any trade talks can begin.

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The Sunday Times also leads on the summit,

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reporting that the other EU member states have rejected Theresa May's

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negotiating position and accused her of living

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The Sunday Telegraph says the Prime Minister has rejected

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the demands coming from Brussels as politicians on both sides

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of the Channel warned that the talks could turn nasty.

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The Mail on Sunday reports that Theresa May will bring

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in new laws to prevent a repeat of the Sir Philip Green BHS pension

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The Sunday Express leads on the investigating

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into the disappearance of Madeleine McCann,

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It says Scotland Yard's prime suspect is a woman.

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Of course, we will start with Brussels. We would not expect

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anything else. The Observer says the EU tells Theresa May, give us rights

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for our citizens or no trade talks. They did not take long to decide

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that negotiating position, considering there were 27 of them.

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It will not take long to sort out the citizens' rights question

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because everyone is agreed that we will give reciprocal rights, EU

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citizens here can have their rights and British citizens there can have

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their own rights so we can get on with the trade talks. Cammy? There

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is the exit Bill? Were making three points, one is citizens rights, that

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could be agreed quickly and the financial settlement will be far

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more contentious and they want 60 billion by the British government

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says we will not pay anything like that and the third is about the

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Irish border and it was in the notes of Donald Tusk, when he wrote to

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Theresa May at the beginning of April, he said that some progress

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had to be made on those things before they could start discussing

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the new relationship between the UK and EU so none of this new. It is

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fake news! Or just a rehash? It is a fake rehash. This is a rehash. Is

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that fake? I stung this with Andrew Neil a few years ago, this is Kabuki

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theatre. The Japanese theatre. In America it means this posturing,

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this little dance, this little show, and it is Kabuki theatre and these

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are not issues, citizens' rights, yes. The Irish border? I don't see

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that as an issue. Dear me! It is an island so if they are worried about

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people getting into Europe, they will still have to go through a port

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somewhere? But because of the history of Northern Ireland and

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Ireland, the heart border was a big issue. That is concerning. I see

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this as a soft border. There has been a common travel area well

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before the European Union. The Republic of Ireland will be staying

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in the single market and that means the full freedoms of goods and

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services and capital and Labour so anybody working in Ireland, if there

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was no border controls, they could move to Northern Ireland, so that is

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an issue and that is an issue on the tablets because if it happens that

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we have tariffs against the EU, against Ireland, that could be an

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issue. There are mince -- amends political sensitivities also. Those

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are the specific things you can relate to the Republic of Ireland,

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it will remain in the EU and we will leave so that issue has to be

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discussed. It will not be straightforward. I think it could be

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resolved whereas the exit bill could not be resolved because they want 60

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billion and we want to pay 10 billion or 5 billion, quite a big

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gap. If that is not resolved then nothing else can be. You will come

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back to that in a second but I want to do with the other story on the

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front page of the Observer, Labour pledged to outlaw all zero hours

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contracts, these have been very controversial, Charlie is saying!

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Put a halt to unpaid internships. Ruth, with a business background,

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what is your view? I am not keen on zero hours contracts but if it is a

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choice between a job and no job, I want a job, with zero hours. I have

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never had one of those, I have always been lucky with my

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employment, until I got the sack! But that is history. It was rather

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unfortunate. When Labour puts all of these extra restrictions on

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employment any to be careful, they are also talking... You say

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restrictions but they are safeguards for employees? Do you have a job or

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not? If you have the job, you have more rights and safeguards but if it

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is harder to get into the Labour market, that is a problem. It is

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always great to sit next to somebody like Ruth, an economist, I wish they

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would teach more economics in schools, you can at ?15 every other,

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make it 50 of it ever, if you don't have a job, it doesn't matter. There

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is a finite pot of money generally and a lot of companies, and

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companies will pay you top dollar if they can. We'll be? All of them?

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Those shareholders support that? I never chap who runs 30 McDonald's

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restaurants and others discussing how you save money, with kiosks, he

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says the way they do this, it takes more backroom staff, they want a

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good product but you cannot pay more going out than what is coming in.

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With zero hours, we have to turn up for work and you are only paid when

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you physically do the job. I agree with Ruth, they are not ideal but

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for some people they are quite convenient. When McDonald's offered

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employees the chance to switch from zero hours to fixed hours. That was

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only taken up by a minority of the staff. It suggests that for some

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people, at zero hours contract is preferred because it is flexible and

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what they want. The Labour position used to be that it was against

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exploitative zero hours contracts, I do not know how you define that. It

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is the same with minimum wage. Especially if talking about youth,

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you want to get onto the ladder. You want the training that you get from

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these very good firms. I will mention McDonald's, they do a very

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good job... Are they sponsoring new? Seriously, they have one of the best

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training programmes in the world. I don't think we have time to delve

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into McDonald's! If they had a chance from a company like them and

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there are other companies that sell similar products, I would pay them

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to get my first job because it gets you into the market and you rise up.

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We don't have time to do with the criticisms of McDonald's over the

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years so we can look at the other Brussels story, Theresa May rejects

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Brussels, she is saying, she is laughing them off. I think this is

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fake news. I think she is right, it is just politics. Posturing on both

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sides. It is Kabuki theatre and I used to work for the Japanese so I

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should know! Tough terms for Brexit? We know these terms. These were

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Donald Tusk's terms. There is no news. It is not news but it

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illustrates something I have been talking about for years... Let

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refinish! I think I have conked out! I have forgotten what I was saying.

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You said you knew this but what is new is they got together, the new

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topline, 27 countries. That was expected, I didn't know anybody who

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did not expect those 27 countries to reject the guidelines today. I don't

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think anybody expected that to happen. The piece yesterday, very

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interested in the project. And nothing else but the project. If

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Greece goes down, big deal, what was a line from The Simpsons? - one

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welcome our new alien overlords and I have always thought that about

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Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk. They did not let Greece go down. He

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said I would never have taken the deal, they are interested in the

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project and if they want 60 billion, I will tell them where to put that.

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If they want the project to survive, they cannot make it look too easy

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for Britain? Even if they are not ganging up, as Angela Merkel said?

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It is not in their interests to allow us to have as good a deal but

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where I disagree with Charlie is the idea that it is going to be good for

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Britain, economically, to leave the EU, I do not think it is. Ruth will

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back me up. Free trade makes you better off. And we're going to have

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less free trade with the European Union. We may or may not, if we

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leave without any agreement, it is feasible but not optimal and it is

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much better if some sort of trade agreement is negotiated with the

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European Union and I think there will be one. There is posturing,

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there is no doubt, they have to, but why do I think there will be a trade

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agreement? Because it is in their interests, they have a whacking

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great trade interest. And they are interested in the project,

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interested not in punishing us but in making sure we do not benefit.

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They are not going to bash their own export industries en route. If they

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are economically rational and sensible... They may not be!

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Nordstrom is the trade Commissioner and she said there will be a trade

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agreement, for sure. I would take the record collection in the

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divorce, I would take the other side's clothing and dump that on the

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front lawn and say, I will keep the record collection, you can have the

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kids and just end it! DME! Tories sidestep the Heathrow split, the

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Conservative manifesto will not mention the Heathrow third runway?

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Interesting, we're getting close to crunch day on the Tory manifesto,

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that will be published on Monday week. Big decisions have to be made

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as to what will be in it and it looks as if Theresa May has decided

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not to mention Heathrow. That solves that. Do they need to? They don't

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because apparently there is no decision that will be imminent about

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Heathrow but at some point I wish they would push ahead and get on

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with this third runway. I know Boris was against this as the Mayor.

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Sensible chap? I thought it was a jolly good idea to have a third

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runway! I think this is very hopeful news for those who do not agree. The

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sensor that it -- sensitivities of borrowers have been dealt with, they

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want Zach Johnson to win Richmond. He was ousted not so long ago. Well,

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he resigned in protest against Heathrow and he now wants to be the

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Conservative MP, even the policy has not changed. To me, this is not

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necessarily an election, this is the second referendum in advance. This

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is a one issue election, the Labour Party with Jeremy Corbyn, whatever

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his visa on the runway, the least of his problems, and they are taking

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advantage of this. The guy is like the Black Knight in the Monty Python

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film, nothing but one arm left, fight me! Theresa May a saying,

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great, this will be a referendum, I have the ability to negotiate the EU

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and Brexit however I want, why bring this up? Smart lady. Tactical. There

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are other things she could have avoided mentioning, she has carried

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on with the immigration cap. The Sunday Times... The 100 day salute

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from the Chief. Donald Trump saluting a US Marine on his return

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to the White House, he was addressing the National Rifle

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Association, who are very supportive of him. He has helped them out with

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various executive orders to unpack some of the controls that President

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Obama had. The one thing he has done and accomplished fully during his

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100 days and it will be the thing that I'd last seven as a legacy is

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getting him onto the Supreme Court, the original meaning will be kept,

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that second Amendment is very important to a lot of Americans.

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Overall, it is easy to make fun of the man, I no news broadcasters have

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been having fun. As you know, from last night... She is the fairest

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woman I know in all of broadcasting. You can put that in lights! Nice

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lady! To me, what can you do in 100 days? FDR did quite a lot? I am sure

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he did with the new deal but I was not there at the time, was that

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1933? Lets just say the 1930s. Before my time. He is a bit random,

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I am a statistician and we have random walks, where you do not know

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where he is going and I think Donald Trump's policies are a bit of a

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random walk, if you get my drift. Should you not given credit for

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changing his mind? I do and he has changed his mind on a lot of things,

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he has been obliged to do with Obamacare and the wall, I don't

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think that is going up, Mexico will not pay for it, and the problem with

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the visitors coming in from countries he did not like and that

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has been stopped. He has changed his mind partly because people have

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forced him to. He is very pleased with the results he has got and he

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said he does not think anybody has achieved as much as he has in 100

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days. He is quite keen to blow his own trumpet. No pun intended. He

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said 100 days as a target for achieving lots of things, which he

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has not achieved, but that is Donald Trump, he is bluster and a jolly

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good thing because it turns out that Donald Trump in his first 100 days,

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if you push on, he will move. If he comes up against the con situation

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and the courts in the United States, he will give way. He changes his

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mind and do something more sensible and that is all very good news.

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There is definitely a pragmatism and thank God, when you look at

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international affairs, it was right to address Syria, especially, and

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address North Korea, that was not in his plans, he has gone back, his

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America first policy is a more traditional, in other words, if

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Assad is gassing his own people, it is in our interest because we do not

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want to see chemical weapons so that is part of America first. If he does

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not succeed in achieving all of the things he promised his supporters,

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when he comes up early election, if you bothered to stand again because

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he has said he misses his old life, this is not like I thought it was

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going to be, were they not have long memories and remember what he has

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not done? As far as Syria is concerned, they are not interested,

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they want to see the economy improved, these are people who are

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blue-collar workers, it is different than working class, they own their

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own businesses and they want to see the economy improving. Which it has

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been doing. The economy is doing well? Bottas at dodger. If

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incredibly low interest rates like everybody else and quantitative

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easing and the economy has recovered. It was a very weak

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first-quarter figure yesterday. Unemployment is very low. There are

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a lot of people who say this is fake, the market is not sustainable,

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the numbers... If you have these absurdly low interest rates, what do

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you expect? When interest rates Titan, you will find that you're

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talking about equities, they will come off. If these 100 days of the

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golden period when you rush to get things done, he has a long time in

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office still to deal with the rest of it. He might not find that is

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easy because as we could see with Obamacare... He is not finding it

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easy and he will not achieve many other things he set out to achieve.

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Charlie and Ruth are right, his supporters are very much focused on

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domestic American questions and the economy carries on growing he will

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be fine and a few bills lots of airports and bridges, who knows

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whether that will have enough of an effect by the next election? But it

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will start to give the impression that America is moving again. In the

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polling I have seen, it says that he has outgrown his audience but within

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his constituency, something like 97% approval and if they held the

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election tomorrow, but only would he take the electoral college, he would

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still beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote as well. What is his

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next priority? It is hard to say. He goes with whatever seems to be

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there. Whatever is on television tomorrow morning. North Korea. That

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cannot be ignored. It cannot, what he is doing with North Korea is

:20:10.:20:15.

actually correct because Kim Jong-un is a madman and you don't want him

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to have nuclear weapons somewhat Donald Trump is doing is correct and

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Obama did not think about that. It is marvellous to let you say that

:20:25.:20:28.

without having to jump to his defence! Shall we talk about the

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last thing, HS2 trains bulking up for the bulky? Heavier trains are

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necessary because passengers are heavier? I am looking at you only

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because I have trouble with Amtrak trains, which are so much bigger

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than ours and extremely comfortable. So our cars. Big country with big

:20:52.:21:00.

people. Lots of space. Yes, wide open spaces. Things must be doing

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very good over here in the United Kingdom. People are getting fatter?

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People are getting fatter. We will not have double-decker trains? You

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will not have that. They will not go under bridges. Those lovely old

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bridges. Most of HS2 will be in a tunnel as well. Not only do I not

:21:25.:21:32.

agree with building a third runway at Heathrow, I do not agree with HS2

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either. I am hoping HS2 will not go ahead. The costs, having to build

:21:39.:21:44.

bigger trains for bigger and taller, fatter people, then perhaps that

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will tip the balance. The economics do not stack up? I think this is a

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misallocation of scarce resources, to use a harmless phrase. I am

:21:54.:22:00.

showing off! But joking apart, the money going into this, we do not

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know what the final bill will be, 50 billion? It could be worse than

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leaving the EU. That money would be better spent on other infrastructure

:22:10.:22:17.

projects. It is a white elephant. A fourth runway? 28 runways at

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Stansted. The poor people of Essex. Why should they be so encumbered?

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Back to the story, the spill-over effect of passengers with two broad

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standard six? This is a modern problem on planes? Apparently it is.

:22:35.:22:43.

People can get squashed. One can get squashed in a plane, I have been

:22:44.:22:48.

squashed on several occasions. Nowadays you just worry about not

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getting dragged off! The aisles are wider to help them dragged off!

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George the large rabbit? I was very upset. We always are with animals.

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That was quite a nice spread of stories, shall we see what we can

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come up with that 11:30pm? We will see what we can find. That is it.

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Charlie, Ruth and John will be back again with another look at the front

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pages at 11:30pm. We will see you shortly. The weather is next.

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Pretty quiet start to the Bank Holiday weekend, the

:23:39.:23:39.

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