24/11/2017 The Papers


24/11/2017

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead

to what the the papers will be

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bringing us tomorrow.

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With me are Henry Mance,

political correspondent

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at the Financial Times

and Claire Cohen, Editor

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of Telegraph Women.

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Tomorrow's front pages...

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The Financial Times says Europe's

banks have removed more

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than £350 billion worth of assets

from the UK in the last 12 months,

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after the vote to leave the EU.

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The Times claims a defence minister

is threatening to quit

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if the military is forced to impose

more cost cutting measures -

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including reducing the army

to below 70,000 soldiers.

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The Mail headlines movement

in the Brexit negotiations -

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with the EU signalling it is willing

to start talks on a possible

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trade-deal after the latest

talks with Theresa May.

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The Telegraph cites a new report

that says one in five women

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won't become a mother,

as childlessness has doubled

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within a generation.

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The Express writes that winds

from the Arctic will descent

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on the UK this weekend -

with temperatures hitting

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as low as minus 6.

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We will begin with the Guardian,

which is reporting on its front page

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the appalling atrocities that have

happened in Egypt and the Sinai

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peninsula. Hundreds of worshippers

killed in Sinai mosque attack. There

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is so much attention in the Middle

East paid to a Iraq. Yemen and

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Syria.

There are reports of off-road

vehicles descending on this Moss, 20

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attackers they say running in and

throwing bombs and gunfire, it is

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really dreadful. It seems to be

overlooked, north Sinai is an

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isolated area and it has a media

blackout. It is a lesser-known,

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perhaps a forgotten part of the

region. For some thing this dreadful

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to happen, the worst attack on

modern Egyptian history is a wake-up

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call.

It was so huge and attack and

so well organised, and we don't

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quite know yet which faction is

responsible because so many factions

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are at work there.

And you have a

repressive hardline President Sisi.

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His response under his reign is

brute force. That can be partially

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effective, but it also creates the

risk of stirring up more discontent.

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It's an approach that might not

actually passed by the region.

We

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all know that these groups, whether

they are inspired by Islamic State

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or Al-Qaeda, they seem to have no

trouble replenishing fighters, even

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if they are squeezed out of one

territory they pop up somewhere

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else.

Absolutely right, no one has

claimed responsibility yet, but

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there have been scores of attacks in

this region by people saying they

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are affiliated to Isis. It is a

never-ending supply.

We have seen

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Coptic Christians attacked in Egypt,

but this time it was a Sufi Mosque

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which some hardliners take exception

to.

They are not able to exploit a

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divide that they can in the Middle

East, so by isolating religious

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minorities they can stir up a

similar motivation on behalf of

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extremist violence. Obviously for

people going to Friday prayers this

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is the most horrific thing.

So many

people collected in one place at a

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certain time of day, but this has

implications for Israel and Gaza

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because it is so close and

instability in that part of the

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world is always a worry.

If you look

at a Middle East now, if you are a

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foreign diplomat or you are trying

to look for bright spots, there

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aren't that many at the moment. You

look at Yemen, you look at Iran,

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Israel and Palestine, not much

progress. There is lots of worrying

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trouble spots and few obvious

solutions.

Let's look at the Daily

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Mail and onto Brexit. Let's get down

to business, after May increases the

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UK cash offer, EU says trade talks

now possible. This is the Daily Mail

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take on it, I think they said a lot

of movement is required in every

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area which is what they really said,

isn't it?

There are three issues. We

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are getting to the end of the

beginning of negotiations! We have

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to sort out the right of EU

citizens, we have to sort out what

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happens to the Irish border, and we

have to sort out the divorce

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payment. Theresa May has made a big

move on divorce payment, to 40

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billion. This is where we are seeing

progress. But she has ten days to

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get over the finishing line and it

looks like the question of the Irish

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border, had you have a border

without actually having any

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infrastructure, cameras, gardens?

How does that work? She has ten days

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to sort it out.

On social media,

some people say it is boring and

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forget all about it, but we are only

at the beginning.

We are at the

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beginning. This is possibly one of

those times that Donald Tusk has

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dangled the possibility that we can

break the deadlock. You can say that

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to has -- Theresa May is gone in two

20 billion offer, but the EU still

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feels like they have got her over a

barrel. She has gone into saying

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let's hold hands and jump off the

cliff together, and they are coming

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back at her and only allowing the

vague possibility of breaking the

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deadlock. She must feel like she is

playing a game of whack a mole. She

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thought she could put it on I spit

it is the big issue of the day.

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Exhibit Leo Varadkar, could not

fight an election while... That

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border.

Two political crises, one in

Germany, one in Ireland, from a

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British perspective is unseen. They

are complicating factors. There is a

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national interest, and to some

extent there is a united front on

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behalf of Irish politicians who say

it is Britain's problem to sort out.

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You are saying they can have an

innovative border where you can

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track everything and nothing passes

beneath the radar. If you say that

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is possible, you sorted out, they

are saying to Theresa May. It may

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well keep that Government going, but

the chance of collapse would be

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stored in recent talks.

Not

something that people had

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necessarily foreseen as you said.

And maybe Fianna Fail will ease off

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the pressure on finer gales. --

finer. Something that might become

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unstable, toxic, unprofitable come

the day we do leave the EU.

And

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protecting themselves against a

potential no deal. This is been the

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week where we have perhaps in the

first major and tangible impact that

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Brexit could have on the economy. We

have got the European banking

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authority moving headquarters to

Paris, we've got the European

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medical agency moving headquarters

to Amsterdam. We have even got

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Dundee not allowed to go in for the

European city of culture because

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that is run by EU institutions.

There is this sort of trickle

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effect. In the bank shedding 350

million is the latest.

All

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businesses are saying what they

needed certainty and they can't have

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that at the moment. Will galvanise

the Government to try and put its

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house in order so that we can try

and get on and talk about a trade

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deal.

Exactly. What businesses would

love is a transition deal to save it

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any major changes are not 18 months

away, they are more than two years

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away. It would allow people in

boardrooms to say, I am not going to

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make any drastic changes. But what

the moment they have to do is say

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because they don't know what the

situation will be after March 29, I

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will rid myself of a problem even if

it is a slight cost now. I will get

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rid of these assets because I don't

know what the regulatory regime will

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be or how I will execute these deals

after March 20 19.

Not a state

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assets, but actual investment arms

of banks moving away from London.

We

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have in FT story of cliff edge

Brexit talked about. That is a new

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one on me, Huybrechts, soft Brexit,

cliff edge Brexit, shifting

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investments away and people moving

away. Tangible jobs moving away.

The

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red, white and blue Brexit doesn't

get much mention these days. The

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Times, the security alert that

happened earlier today, just down

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the road from here at Oxford circus

where people thought they heard

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shots fired at about 4:40pm this

afternoon on the Underground Tube

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station and there was a massive

lockdown.

It shows what a state of

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high anxiety we are written. The Met

said they received numerous 999

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calls. They must've thought there

was a tangible threat, but only 16

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or so people were injured and that

was as a result of a stampede. There

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have been reports of up of people

running into shop screaming run for

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your lives. The source appears to be

a possible punch-up between two men

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on a tube platform.

We have not been

given details of what that supposed

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gunfire was.

We have not at all.

People were dropping their Black

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Friday shopping bags and running for

what they perceive to be their

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lives. That shows what a really huge

state of panic we are written about

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this.

It was a spooky site to see

all the lights on along Oxford

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Street and around Oxford Circus but

nobody there. On today, one of the

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busiest shopping days of the year.

Disastrous for retailers. On the one

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hand, it is a good news story

because no one died. The platform at

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Oxford circus is constrained, it

might be difficult to see. But I

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think it shows what social media can

do. Someone tweets I am in a shop

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and there seems to be a lockdown.

Loads of people in the area get the

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message, people are running panicked

and so forth. It's just great that

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it was not an attack to be honest.

I

remember when I was on the end the

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night the Paris attacks happen, and

we had initial reports of gunfire.

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It was kind of dismissed, even on

all the news wires as fireworks, it

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is Paris on a Friday night. Or a car

backfiring. And now, we have

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something that was not gunshots that

people think it was. But that worry,

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as you say Claire, is very much on

people's minds.

Another positive to

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take away, even though it has turned

out to be nothing, the Met

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galvanised incredibly quickly and

there were reports straightaway that

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there was a huge, armed police

presence on the scene. So, although

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thankfully came to nothing, had

there been an incident worthy of

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their attention they were there and

ready.

A colleague of mine noticed

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that there were no ambulances to be

seen. Thankfully it all seemed to be

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police vehicles. Speaking of Black

Friday, it is a record breaking

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Black Friday apparently for British

retailers. A huge amount, isn't it

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always says Dave, the voice and

might you. Good for them, I suppose.

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They have to make hay while the

sunshine is. A huge amount of money

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being spent over the next three

days.

. A billion over four states.

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That is a projected figure. Up 7% on

last year. One of the problems with

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Black Friday is that retailers make

offers that they make cheap in the

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hope of bringing people in in the

hope of people spending more than

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they want are cleverer than that,

they bring their purchases forward

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to that day day and spend less and

the days that follow. You have seen

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some retailers sceptical about it.

You need to look at the whole

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Christmas run-up before you decide

whether consumers are buoyant not.

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Won got pretty violent, previous

Black Fridays, but a lot of the

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shopping has been done online, so I

hope a lot of the fighting has been

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fewer.

I have not seen pictures of

people falling on top of widescreen

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TVs, maybe they will, over the

weekend. But I did not spend

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anything.

Did you indulge?

I did not

spend anything.

On principle I

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won't. What about you?

I bought a

sandwich!

Was it discounted?

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Unfortunately not. I can see that it

has become an event. If you see

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brands getting their message out on

Facebook, Twitter and so forth, then

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you are nudged to go out and say I

do need to get that Christmas

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present or why not do it in loads of

time? Unfortunately, like Halloween,

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it is embedding itself in the

calendar.

Americanisation of our

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high street.

Some schools where I

live had a day-to-day, nothing to do

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with the teachers wanting time! Just

a coincidence. Let's finish with the

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Telegraph one in five women went

over the aim mother. -- whatever be

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a mother.

It talks about work fishes

leather, the cost of child rearing

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and the pleasure of a child

Lascelles. Which is

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it talks about a generation that is

aspirational. Which perhaps would

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not have been the case in days gone

by. But as we know, that is just not

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prosecute. Wages are stagnating.

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They talk about these perpetual

postponing...

Whether this is a

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choice, it or they can't afford

them? As a consequence will we have

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a declining birth rate?

My

instinctive reaction is to slightly

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recoil, because we do see a lot of

headlines that are basically playing

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on women's anxiety and guilt. I feel

this is one of them. It would be

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nice to talk about men who

biologically can have children

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later, but RNA 50s and 60s and

chosen not to. I think the ONS words

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about post-honing decisions... I

would like to see if they have done

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the research and interviews rather

than just looked at figures. A

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generation ago it was very

different.

It is also designated 45

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as the cut-off age for having

children which I would like to know

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how they had landed on that one?

Cherie Blair had won at 45.

It was

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not her first, that is the

difference I suppose, how long you

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wait to have your first?

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That's it for The Papers tonight.

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Don't forget you can see the front

pages of the papers online

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on the BBC News website.

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It's all there for you -

seven days a week at bbc dot co uk

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forward slash papers -

and if you miss the programme any

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evening you can watch it

later on BBC iPlayer.

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Thank you Claire and Henry.

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From us all, goodbye.

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The weather is next.

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